Pe OE A ON

EMS Ce neti g Hn He!

ww (eth et VTE

POCWIN Ded ty ELI out ete

Ff MOY 55

nT Give ttt

Malta aves

02 GENS EIN Mf BY

PRAMS M GA Da Oe.

ee AEE ON hed y “yy ais

10) 20 yi te ah 9 y Ao

PEN ey ea wa

da SAMA aa

beh Lid

POt ye tg ha tere Hd CRNOAN Heya gn

Marans Teg

MDa tebe yt

Leet’

Sena INO Rit

AMAA PME ENOL NA ites pHa i

, HE bya oe ulby pe i fests LAS ‘ay Wa

en Sy AMEE GOED Deweae Bt wl ga MAI se) WME ANN OL MOY Loni often gery ate *yieeet ue SEM bye NVR MeN RY Ulby Fee abt LiinalarsaBa yn pee

Whee Aer WI Pee (mew { - * 7 PAYEE a Papeete 1 20 0 cen oe Wat Pg 4: Nau , Maal Ma ee >

4 yiel siCody BAND Ry OLIN EB A (tie tab Yah ee Nugiet Te EYP AEN pay LIN ny aay NY bw aifae eile nba ha

Wa Be Atytte eh DE er eM i nL Sa oh ny Ve Preis eet AN Bh oahy ee

A ediatig qin iW wha tte

itt

Lehewae wo Hei

" Hannes

Vea S WERE penta Ca Meccetletng thy we 6

COSY ER pha,

Cara rane

Cron maiten Wart

sre CON UL ENEWS ON

sed nay

ri PHENO aT eS

OTe te weee nh tn pe by Dene SNA oy iy ae AWAD ea aye VAD Yi ony ts

Wiehe ete ALAM EY, y AN Peat ing ‘yt 4 ’ ea ts NF Vt tae ae

Iris hadi fre tye yin att ane RINE SAL RW CCEA TENT FOI ND? Aalto esa bang A reulhe vinta, Oy pnb LN

Aadnod ae thy Hing WU Pat pat Hla Og Sa ty SA ME BAR toe Vet CLIT NOMS te fee at OME I aes he Mele erated sibs neat uf Pela

rN Anette ig ask adept estan FD Pe QUOTE OND ha ein Ce PLAN CULL TS Itty Het COUN. ALU eH OFC oe siNgte LIUPSINOY KUMI EO OPV Op ete dla Aen tee EBM Neues Shred ba DYRMD ATER TALIS fi

BHA eT UE Lp ey Mette a ie DS Ae Meee ated REE NN Yad aw Ho donde Om Mad te fle MEV VE NE LMT 8H, oon ZNE de ENGNG aa x SEMEL IR Ly VEN RD ND

AMDT NT ESE GRY Hy AAD REL DS Ht ORE RSTO et ee ee er Liar Wy eR ey Med Kar ver

ee oh Mth Me tee! pL Li Mesa ten

PNAS tie tial ln dy Fe

SPEED ODE UME et edt ot! pith Like Oopbanys y pes &

Ue UD Aten te pivot

as anal

eC RT a Sa

Pe OPEV hy

OS thw

AeA EN GA TUES VEE IN pont aN EI 9g

6 AN BO MTA PT EE EME fie Me EN | aie"

CO aU he ae Ce en Ce

Mattes Cadas ADO aE

We aE ayes

BEANE RIM UY HUES

eh bey ty

r TOV NWO een hee thai Rad a sha ath ye xb sahil

WA ed erst CP yiea da ot f fant pone EER Sy ind + aol ar NV iawn deel Ae obosarrahet lay gb, Pn ba Drie tert yi

PU Wes Hye wei] am Met py Leo On OU ie a a Sh OM aye whin wer ryt, PAN UN Vite woh thas Stan ey illo lait Lee aa a aS SU

Vip ARE AE Hie AN OY Sade] AACA EGE Wey eee eae Tris fear RHE LYIS WOE LAYER ¥ PYF WIEN SEN De ty Md OVany ge

Letty SALMA Te gare E AUT ENG UH EYE LU HL tye y OP thw ba

CRIN WS Pe AMAL A ARONA Hg Oe

SAO FOE tor A Sg

aS byisae

WOM Leche is Cah ay

in PE pa rmenet ee agony ty

M85

5 > yh ys

ay; Soy Ys DY balan Neue yh Taare

W ce is WAL VE NIH ANT LE OURAN te VAIN NOD Lt VAI AS OLE YT ET SDM hays BENT fa yer edta Aimy aye Yuedaa enim eis f

a ‘envied PA cK HU pee CLL CALTL ean Ne Rete Tien Rd Oe Ts OLY OME Lye ‘ Site IN ae ie ox Wen ee Onno BAGO MATa yph ule TN RE Hey tu

SN TET Sabie ih an AON TEMES 6 NENA VAL SPE MEAG LOIN AM pty ty arrers oA ysy hs Definite ZW OVER IS YAS Me aIED ET? eat ReLevy pyitdbaon ce view it PUrkriurue ee arty, Poel

Wig te Pah Pde BOL Ute ABTS cel gates SeieaM yl 8 Di A 2th Ad Aydt Nana APA A Noite eda ms MeGM EELS vena y ieee Nan ae PARES L NED OL Ns SANS Ltr

‘ iby Sa oars es bs wre ; Pha INS, ANE BT MEL 9 DUAN tie Ly Vd Ve PNY VET SFP Liye Ly sho pe 1a fely yee Lena rx cherie win pat ¥ fess MYR CSY AUS UNG)

ety Fa SQM tare wih govt She ge Ue fe A ALA Lele fe Wien NO i Ed (UR tibs ae n cette STD Eee MODY we VN OM Mees oy Pat Sa hI WD og. tS BY ab La lar te Maeno LON VND NT Bytintid iy apa WAN

Ve AF ee FOL Wace MEA a ES WaT EM Vaiviretnn ng ninth fligdtin t's POI OU EL Mt ed Me SLM, BEAM LAT PAWEVRTA INI EH EL fe Lead ENS! vy MANS DRE NOULY hae Ube ygGvane Can § awa? > ee TRY THEN A yy AV en a viene Dee UU gn bth HE GL Ne ga) Baa Ryedale

Cage eats Mendes Mpc agiT chew Ue late lI p ry nomen tak OL NEN tad Tent eileen iet NAY 0 Aidondin Cuswrd yop itent Feely rowney hy; manly’ fare wien ei Beat ens ge EYPLC 4 mV SOCOM LUN BAT Me Cie open EET Oo NiowM 110 Siu [Psealnd sind, a ety PN orp Mi dteh cr” ald

PROT GN NS Rea AAR Ce OEE I Pr Bias er a BORAT DD FoR teed! rit A et eh wee Fed WET OG a wy MEUOMION BAe Sine ote Tele FY Pe matty . ANE Steg

Selene lCH ar anOrN um vets

Le ay

Ma fa idle

AM VEN AERA ee wipes eee

etl

VM AD EME NN SYM Sy by ig

wath!

tala stare

LV ENEMMR™ CDV LES LIN SN fe Bn Ne Ae

chee ea eet

Stk IN MOL SUDA Ts ge

ath st we hey HY ww till Hw debby eo at

SEMIS VSIA, te Fos oe Readiness tts Sra (Vals ®APMINE, . Sh

iLO SY Ming out yh, % ‘ A

STUER STN Nails e ALPS

VEEN UNS HERS eM RR pee N Oe

APE teu Ca

Pee aay hese pnt

ED Salve tw kam rugs

Pedy Oy Veta eile et te

WEA MY,

thd

A sey Py

CULMS Dip hohery 15 Mad

Pa art

ae i

peeves,

tye

CU eae ea ny

the meme tid 4 FUMIE Ne ee AN Ra, LENA adage ey ha OBEY OV 7 RAY eI8N he ncm

5 OVE Le pede x hil YE INST POMEL TD se Ma Sa PS eta yey oa Nad arse Vt Vi euiialy a EEN STS yey are tks % Be Mien,

Mac tved ent sia Re Hythe Miho La 4S Wy vanes bere ats ry uae Nal bar alent ahi MD arg HUN SY ERK NONI gw 9 we Rene

ceaecattudl Aeris heh tahoe Fel Epcot ate “deen imadsibinabaser denanie eine Ane

Hat itavtatig etal tera itia Patan aaron (intial me wey Te Mat COOW Met L AM WE RTA singin een Feu INU oe en ere LS SSN ovate encour Te peterennnnennerien SANE tA Rebate CA La ae ae Lae i

CAEN ERM Radin ine alight, Sete MA ae Waid A we eee LY er TEE WTA eA at's WEE DYE Ly righ 7 a Ee RN Lise OCIA TALE DIMES IN ATs fe de AAd 6 Pattie Tye gs END Ted Nt Sve hana oat tA ie ha irae NGA cae MARE a Gy

ey Peele snl eeayn ahs WR apa tintin ‘ Core I DEEN WE Ok PDN MO ORR PEPNOO PWS Aho Sh rete ve MARINE amare Vac AR Re ee eit VAs Aide ery wp ose PeoA MIA De oe hile NeSt y

Pe ad Cay Aa HES Siri Nel Ade TNE OL aN ARTO IU gee SVE got natel OI ERIE AEE OL 08 Le NSA RIVE TEN Sot hy Ld ie VIBE ROD GAS TAT AYN OY f wi LE fp pie Clee al

etl pltiedi arte OM ey [oes BAAS HEY WM MUNCH PLT ici Med cet ey tia ae A “ “

Cay ge ern a

ae eer ree Leas

etal wa Be

To) or sia tps Mentos oe

Ye Piet

1nd MN WT Rs SGD BM a Gell 9 Fy Fay

WO DAD Ser ee aye hehe Nowy 8%

MRO Dy ¢ MMA ONT OMS OLE VAD Cnt eae PEEVE ie ot Vt Fee Ch

CA OP ORBEA VED Lp SIE tha yee IN We

De Muha talt We neoied sly

2 tether atone yr e lad:

Dh en

Cal aK Molt Ha CllV

WOE Ey een ge

4 Fad dot Adie hth te

PWN TNE BP EIN Vary ey

Neg Pye ewes

Ph AL LUT SA INE TEY Fis ULI NS Gllad G AQE OMY

CAL NOE Ae Foe wee indy FT?

VEEL eR abby Phytepey on Sree gs LOYD Be OR Mae gh 5 tay LEP bo

‘ d DYER AND Hes oyytnpy oN Sra List hey SA SO sie a Neciaeey its Vessco

; ve pace Geet " bh t Re NTIS AES TIPLE Wee NE RENG MLE Y TW Mbt sD, . 4 MMe el Uta EI a) pak etal bie Ta

Av Pe! SE AIM ATO oan Mh Mee ate teense eh OM PRR ee WANs uita Py AIREY Ny PY OND MINING DS fad Ne atid, “Dgity # ne ISIN Tad 14N ARGH Pugin s Ope Mensinn 2a 4 swt m Cara AW by er yy WAIN Ade mr is fed

a rigeretyed eH yy fer NA eee at AM wi TEN TO He OEE AUTTRIN Ha PERM ERALWIOZNG wd top yan fee PAVE OW ot WOM aay SII Oe emw an ease Bie tA gyi LEV ITAITH PAI ont UF DY Fe Phd RIE way sue ameny a BEERS AY tev es crater ae str e O OT yheow eae

Bgl pital Oe sata Tee Mey g iNet tl att Maca tee Be HA ea al WTEC UN WW Waa nik . WEA te

Sern art ied Une thie pe

SEL P NE WOR ea Le ha eee Be Me TNA et ante

EU OURO Kivi yeety Neve yey

61S wig? nA GAY Wit NOE, IE MER GEE HEE as

Wire PAA NET 9? gdIV OM eater

PRE eae ty

Ved IMEI TENE EN ye

ny Ser ern

CDE acer cart

ELIE ee thu

Yat ey

UE vereneenen

Vw Lah Meh te hy uy yey ve

Nid saw Net aus

ea i ee

UO urtanr oe it ar re

Pe te Air rt net

ips Ne 4

UB TOD MM NILES et

Waele Me Ge) Magy,

Wee She ee Rey ns yee

Age be ye GWirhoneeee

RT er

Tat iN Rae FE at cny

whey

we ey tay

Nee Co tet

Cea

Le Aah? aE

SAFE HV ENE N wod sapn yh

AN Abele SNe ANT

reat?

at afl ested ed

Pen nn Cae DET AY ag Nig ae pi Poy be fe

RAS VIR PVA HEAR LEI pty git Hep tes reste ais Wares TAQ omrwthe rem!

arte Ais DOME te as eps : Shige J? PATA gf VM ULTRAM Me ee GPR ANL ay NeW ee rE RC MEY y be byibyihy'e Nalsine™ oY pAmekaein lA eel: alas

2 ‘ 5 ( Tee ng Ve PA Ea ged My YW™ WN POW UD os 2g at COT Ih ypu 6 : < OMEN wid 9 Tons SAIL AN wi MB a Fan

- S FEN in VIERA TEN BEN LEVIN Le Oe 1% CEE ae ee es a alas te SR eA Ta eae ee AC anenewboanyn oa FS SO NSU RN ees

WEE ON nrecene ee iEe TOS LE Loe i8 ine ee iA OL OLIN E! Wethe eee CER EASE VAR ew ty arom SIDER Is cartons ene ‘ vos 7 :

Pe RETO AE pe et kA et CE eg ged. PM a8 ec TOT Mad ed nA le EE BEAL EINE EN Sa? el ork

ni ae) Se Ce

itt naling

dia aie UNS ea Pa

SPIE my te eh Nd Piel

SNS Deter Raye ew MG Myre ak ye ot

VOM D SPER vere rem stews tg Oe P

<4 bye

rey

ery

“

PRPS bh

atlas

My be ey

ve INS ¢

ES Me Iie Hse NT

va.

Eh hed el Me 2

Ff aS Cate

Tene wren)

eSlae pop eea ane oy

VIN Nas ad aa ed ay at

obit tens on ed

UTE Sy OP Pay sir

seen dye Seat

HOT NEES ETA ERIN O MOSES RTS Large ices , ASI rhe eg : : S/W Nel bITa A NYA rm MENS eee aon tesat

11 fig ieee! att Jes ed 4 ae NAO tie ts > “nef PUAAEO pr ere) ee ieee! SIME yt yeti 4 EU oat Va Ee wk bia | nA eli aatite aes

Pee ‘ iu, “ cs Seay ete ed PINEDA YN od by Nowe : ee ted ST pty beat A aU te ete hue Devt

Fiat Ms att NOD HET AN Lod a thy Ne foal? st Servet te EYEE Ft dae AE AH MW lh MET IM YN Sogn My, fete eae Feel, QTE Ot bd aah ene y POP ey >

Fab tale aed Maile BOP OME OTe roe bet ODF Em LD Mot Roe SLANE ys ee pane nel y! Sd WAIT WA. Onetn ms onde paints Ruta esa Casa aah ewe :

ast a pee NF ate Ae 4i2"y it tba Sy 0 nA. 1% 6 eet ye staat x .

Bed Saas

Ph resales

a> Hite Mee pve

SINR NS SITES WO Ny WN FSI RA

fest VEMCENS Se ned

Wes Me

WANN TD Tf ea MSS Nie Soe eri

Oke

Oa ri

SWE aN

SUE wpe telboys meer

WIS My henry Leh URE SIND 9 Saw whe Hints inves etrbwe ree

AN Ata Loy 9 Yacht

riety

ONES Sa rem TSUN Hey

Pe ede hare FOL ONE gH

NESUL AMINED YN Py MTN Ey ayiy

Se fed Oe

sa etn ely,

Neate whe

FIG VE MODES Cnty

TWN H ytlag oy Cy ener eee SPipt hn toa

ER rep UNE ye bes * ge aon trae Anab wi ovis cre ALA 95 oe .

: vriins ek hg NY MEIN Poot thas are © aya vt Leas a Rah AL Pere atl aad

MOS waded OMAP LUMEN ROIS ES ES WES Oty BE Ty LeN SNH Ty NaRE TY Wis NyiND athe MEME hs RS Ket

ote Ped aod XS ay ‘iar agar dace oe Ga al VN M earns Dv encne aris ran

. PtP e008 AMA SD "

0 oe

PONE AS

WN tatty

JG ate os ~

Ye ee tg a nae eres

mee a Sram es TopMia Va Wey dan ake

Pi a Pe ae

An eTae ot hese cata

bean

" Ce al dete Le

ree Se

NE on awe

bay sve

Ae ee

La SIDE RUAN SEN tg ce

SL TEIN Ce weg Oy

Nive soc by

“aun

taal

FP eqreynys

, WES FM HN

INI SAIN be.

EM ali Hoe, faye

Sigh. Cintas

“wy

Phat wey

wlan

YER gh

9 Sie

Hg VET SN ley ety

WAlen erin nee y png Fd

a Neary hy, RANE BIN iNet sy eres

aes

Sei ht ee

WE ag tT

Speen

FEM OT arma ey

= : Seca!

Pe are et re

POTN ere

whlbe Terie es

Bem yee mn

Pe aa I oe a ty

an ened

Min ABN os

eed

Tae mg tym TD

Tad gh

Sg Rm areas ter We sae

VA A Pos wynytany

lee BAM ey

nk? Pee ene oot

SM Na ie

wy nm ae

Aine ed oy

Wee Wy)

ye A a

‘A

ie)

et Fa

Lat lec OLE

nN: a.

bw a) H)

Pde p

Wis

i as

A yl He

Ae PSS > ' ; 7 . a fi

Ai SM a ia see sh Gere

ay. ~

q cs

a \

sé

a ‘

;

- 7

(

ge (i? |

vit | VOLUME 82

! Number 1

J Our nal of the March, 1992

WASHINGTON

ACADEMY ..SCIENCES

ISSN 0043-0439

Issued Quarterly

at Washington, D.C.

CONTENTS

Articles:

JOHN H. PROCTOR, “A Theoretical Basis for Intentional Organizational

Change with Comments from a Thirty Year Perspective” ....................

ROBERT GOODLAND, ANASTACIO JURAS & RAJENDRA

PACHAURI, “Can Hydro-Reservoirs in Tropical Moist Forest Become

BMVALOMMEMtAlys SUS CANA DIS? mis tions eke eek oeccis oe cis bickoks & eiclevone igre eioeioece 19

ROBERT GOODLAND & HERMAN DALY, “Ten Reasons Why Northern

Income Growth is Not the Solution to Southern Poverty” ................... Sy

PAN SELUCHONSItO) GC ONTMOULOLS Ge esis ete Fe ree aires RR hae eae

Washington Academy of Sciences

Founded in 1898

EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

President

Walter E. Boek

President-Elect

Stanley G. Leftwich

Secretary

Edith L. R. Corliss

Treasurer

Norman Doctor

Past President

Armand B. Weiss

Vice President, Membership Affairs

Cyrus R. Creveling

Vice President, Administrative Affairs

Grover C. Sherlin

Vice President, Junior Academy Affairs

Marylin F. Krupsaw

Vice President, Affiliate Affairs

Thomas W. Doeppner

Board of Managers

James W. Harr

Betty Jane Long

John H. Proctor

Thomas N. Pyke

T. Dale Stewart

William B. Taylor

REPRESENTATIVES FROM

AFFILIATED SOCIETIES

Delegates are listed on inside rear cover

of each Journal.

ACADEMY OFFICE

1101 N. Highland Street

Arlington, VA 22201

Phone: (703) 527-4800

EDITORIAL BOARD

Editor:

John J. O?Hare, CAE-Link Corpora-

tion

Associate Editors:

Bruce F. Hill, Mount Vernon College

Milton P. Eisner, Mount Vernon Col-

lege

Albert G. Gluckman, University of

Maryland

Marc Rothenberg, Smithsonian Insti-

tution

Marc M. Sebrechts, Catholic Univer-

sity of America

Edward J. Wegman, George Mason

University

The Journal

This journal, the official organ of the Washing-

ton Academy of Sciences, publishes original

scientific research, critical reviews, historical

articles, proceedings of scholarly meetings of

its affliated societies, reports of the Academy,

and other items of interest to Academy

members. The Journal appears four times a

year (March, June, September, and De-.

cember). The December issue contains a di-

rectory of the current membership of the

Academy.

Subscription Rates

Members, fellows, and life members in good

standing receive the Journal without charge.

Subscriptions are available on a calendar year

basis, payable in advance. Payment must be

made in U.S. currency at the following rates:

UiS..and’Canada «.: : ):a)ee eee $25.00

Other countries: 2... 3: eee 30.00

Single copies, when available ....... 10.00

Claims for Missing Issues

Claims will not be allowed if received more

than 60 days after the day of mailing plus time

normally required for postal delivery and

claim. No claims will be allowed because of

failure to notify the Academy of a change of

address.

Notification of Change of Address

Address changes should be sent promptly to

the Academy office. Such notifications should

show both old and new addresses and zip-code

numbers, where applicable.

Published quarterly in March, June, September, and December of each year by the

Washington Academy of Sciences, 1101 N. Highland Street, Arlington, VA 22201.

Second-class postage paid at Arlington, VA, and additional mailing offices.

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences,

Volume 82, Number 1, Pages 1-18, March 1992

A Theoretical Basis for Intentional

Organizational Change with Comments

From a Thirty Year Perspective!

John H. Proctor

B-K Dynamics, Inc., Rockville, Maryland

ABSTRACT

Application of scientific methods to organizational behavior followed work done in the

military and industry in World War II on team performance, group behavior, and organiza-

tional design. A new scientific discipline, organizational psychology, grew to fill the gap

between psychologists studying individual behavior and sociologists and cultural anthropolo-

gists interested in large group behavior. New approaches had to be devised for applying

traditional applied research designs and measurement techniques to the formation, growth,

success, and failure of human-centered organizations. At about the same time, a holistic or

systems science was emerging. This science, when coupled with the tools of conventional

applied research, brought a fresh new perspective. During our lifetimes we have come to view

organizations as living organisms (“living systems,”’ as James Miller calls them) that grow,

adapt, evolve, interact with other organizations, self-organize, self-regulate, and, based upon

feedback from the environment, modify behavior to succeed or fail.

General systems and cybernetic theory provided a framework of constructs, models, and

points-of-view that was helpful in organizing and formalizing thinking about intentional

organizational change. Using a general systems paradigm of Organization (O) Relating (R)

to Environment (E) through Time (T), this paper both discusses ways of first distinguishing

and then synthesizing structure and process and articulates criteria of organization effective-

ness and efficiency. It then suggests ways of synthesizing formal logical problem-solving and

human problem-solving processes in the context of concrete situations faced by organiza-

tions. Such a paradigm serves to help clarify hypothesis formulation and evaluation using

conventional scientific methods. However, the methodological focus on organization objec-

tives, goals, and missions has revealed to me that individual and collective options arising

from values lie at the root of organizational effectiveness and efficiency.

General systems/cybernetic theory can provide useful scientific paradigms when coupled

with those of specific scientific disciplines, common sense, or intuitions, in the sense that it

offers an interdisciplinary theoretical framework for analytical investigation of highly com-

plex human-centered organizations. However, there are bounds. In any real sense, scientific

investigation of human centered organizations cannot be value-free. The general systems

paradigm cannot, of itself, explicate root values which arise from somewhere outside that

framework.

' Based upon a paper, “Management Systems,” presented to the Mid-Atlantic Conference of the Society for

General Systems Research, September 1973, and an article by E. J. Burns and J..H. Proctor, “‘Sistemi e

Administrazione,” appearing in Paradigmi a Societa, (A Systems paradigm), Franco Angeli, Editor, George

Braziller, Publisher, Milano, Italy, 1978, pp. 87-101. E. John Burns, my friend and colleague, and I discuss

these issues to this day.

2 PROCTOR

I. Introduction

Contributors to General Systems theory/cybernetics have increasingly recog-

nized that despite the advances and the useful insights achieved by theory, the

nature and role of values remain paramount in every intellectual construct. As

Sutherland (1974) states:

. . any information any scientist acquires, by whatever means, will owe at

least some portion of its substance to non-empirical, non-inductive imagina-

tion, such that a value-free science is both logically and practically impossible

(and perhaps not even desirable).

To reach a similar conclusion, this paper describes in some detail an application

of general systems theory/cybernetics to organization improvement and dis-

cusses why in human social systems one always faces values that transcend and

direct the construction of all formal structure-process sets one usually denotes as

“system.”

In my experience as an organizational psychologist consulting with clients in

government and industry, a large number of problems and situations are seen

more clearly when viewed from a general systems/cybernetics perspective. I am

a technologist who attempts to apply that perspective whenever possible. My

work, performed in a highly pragmatic context rather than a research or aca-

demic setting, has led me to certain conclusions concerning the nature of general

systems theory/cybernetics as a paradigm for scientific approaches to under-

standing and organizing human social systems.

Chief among these findings is that human social systems at any point in their

multi-year life cycle present a hierarchy of phenomena that, while inherently

interactive, has a precedence order of relationship and influences among levels.

John Burns and I have been asserting for over twenty years that beyond the

familiar systems concept of levels within levels, there are qualitatively different

levels—perhaps we should call them Levels—such that there are not only levels

within levels, but Levels above or, better yet, Levels beyond Levels. This result is

suggested when one poses the now familiar question: ‘““‘Where do goals or objec-

tives for management by objectives come from?”

In attempting to answer this question, we view human-centered organizations

a little differently, through a conceptual lens of general systems/cybernetics

theory. The result of using such a lens is to try to step beyond a description of the

separate notions of structure (management systems) and process (systems man-

agement) or the semantic distinction between systems of management and the

management of systems. However interesting and compelling the extensions of

ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE 3

these notions might be, this paper explores the interactive connection between

structure and process in terms of the missions, goals, and objectives of organiza-

tions and the measures of their individual unit and total organization effective-

ness and efficiency.

A General Systems Paradigm

In the broadest sense, institutions, companies, corporations, agencies, and

churches are viewed as “‘organized complexities.”’ (Weaver, 1948) The orga-

nized complexities are certainly systems according to Bertalanfy’s (1956) defini-

tion, “‘sets of elements standing 1n interaction.” They are complex in the sense of

Simon (1956): “Roughly, by a complex system I mean one made up of a large

number of parts that interact in a non-simple way. In such systems the whole is

more than the sum of the parts. . .”

In terms of the elements themselves, two basic classes can be distinguished.

First, there are those elements united for a specific purpose in a controlled and

bounded arrangement, as distinguished from those elements that operate out-

side the purposes and the boundaries of control. These internal elements (with

bounds) can be called collectively the Organism (O), and those supportive and

constraining elements external to O can be called the Environment (E). I ac-

knowledge that we are on dangerous ground when we select and classify ele-

ments, for as Hall and Fagen (1956) pointed out some time ago: “‘[I]t is no mean

task to pick out the essential from the nonessential; that is, specification and

subsequent dichotomization into system and universe is. . . a problem of

fundamental complexity.” Stafford Beer’s “‘viable system” contributions di-

rectly attack this problem. His thoughts on “Divisio”’ (1960) are particularly

relevant. The interactions, of a dialectic nature, both among the internal ele-

ments of O and between the internal and external elements, we call a Relation-

ship (R). At any given moment these relationships have a present and future

weighted existence which constitutes the Organism’s actual and preferred states

in Time (T). (Fraser, 1975)

This thinking about interactive relationships among the internal elements of

O and between those elements and external elements of E coincides with an

analysis by Mark Braham (1973) who, in developing a general theory of organi-

zation, has perceived that the fundamental process “. . . is cyclic, involving

alternative periods of divergence and convergence.”

Certainly organizations develop structural subelements with differing func-

tions, and considerable individual and collective effort is expended attempting

to orchestrate these different groups so that they will play together within time

phases and over time intervals. But interaction between divergence and conver-

gence also manifests itself in particular ways. It arises because of the practical

4 PROCTOR

necessity to make the heads of organizational elements responsible for produc-

ing at maximum rather than optimum levels. This is a practical necessity wher-

ever optimum levels are not explicitly known, which in my experience is gener-

ally the case. The interaction also appears as the conflict between change and the

status quo. A particular manifestation of this dialectic (for that is what we are

really dealing with) is encountered in corporate planning, especially in advanced

planning, where a means is sought for performing the transition between present

and future states of a company where the guardians of the organization’s present

state can be distinguished from the exponents of change despite the daily singing

of the corporate anthem (Morris, 1974).

Improving the performance of a system or parts of that system begins with

either the acceptance of the client’s organization (O) as given or the articulation

of O in the client’s terms, specifically welding the one and the many into a

dynamic whole which has both individual unit flexibility and holistic cohesion.

Then the environment (E) is specified. This is usually a problem at best, but

what is especially intriguing is that case in which the basic character of the

company itself is the subject of close scrutiny. In these cases the basic question

surfaces: What is the function or mission of the total organism? This question

must be settled before the relevant bounds of E and the relationship (R) between

O and E can be determined. Answering this question is by no means as straight-

forward as it might appear, even for consultants and clients working within

highly structured societies that encourage such well-defined institutions as cor-

porations. It becomes an extremely difficult task when dealing with governmen-

tal, educational, and other similar institutions which operate largely within

self-interpreted and changing boundaries, established and justified with too little

debate and fewer empirical facts and measurements.

In essence, I am employing an abstract and admittedly idealized general sys-

tems model—that of Organism (O) relating (R) to Environment (E) in time

(T)—to help articulate and implement with a client an interactive divergence/

convergence process which will achieve optimum rather than simply maximum

states of output. The next section describes the O-R-E-T model in more detail.

After using this model to approach organizational development for some 20

years, | am persuaded that despite appearances of sophistication, we are shortly

led to certain hypothesized assumptions which cannot be deduced from the

O-R-E-T model or its method of employment. These considerations form the

basis for the remainder of the paper. They lead to the conclusions on general

systems theory/cybernetics not only as a paradigm for conventional science but

also as a currently conceived vehicle for assisting organizations in solving prob-

lems of efficiency and effectiveness.

ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE 5

The Model

In the development of the O-R-E-T model, major emphasis is placed on the

relationships among and between the constituent elements. These relationships

manifest themselves through the statements of goals, objectives, and missions of

the organization. It is the articulation of these relationships that is at the root of

this approach to management systems and systems management of person-ma-

chine combinations in human-centered organizations. The principal reason for

using this approach with clients, stated in its simplest form, is that relationships

among elements is the essence of system. Unless we focus upon and build upon

an understanding of relationships, we can have no concept of the cohesion

underlying the convergence and divergence processes of the many organization

elements which are required to operate in a unified fashion. We would fall prey

-to maximizing the product of subsets, rather than, as far as possible, optimizing

the outcomes of the whole.

Working with a variety of institutional management forms, I have observed

that there are a number of subsets of attributes within O, 1.e., organisms within

the Organism called os, which stand in a variety of relationships (rs) to different

aspects of the Environment. These aspects describe E and are subsets of E, which

is itself a set of es. These os within O have a variety of relationships to one

another and constitute elements of environments of a second type, internal to O

but external to each o. Stated simply, these are intra-organizational relation-

ships. Hierarchical structures and processes, over time, could produce innumer-

able distinctions between internal and external environments peculiar to any of

the os. In other words, a particular subsystem has relationships with other sub-

systems of the organism as well as with those attributes of the environment that

lie wholly outside of the organism itself.

Recognizing these orders of complexity and choosing to work with a whole

institution as the O, one is forced to define very carefully the boundaries or

constraints upon the activities of O, which involves taking an “‘outside-in”’ view

of the particular corporation or agency.The first order of business is usually to

assist the client managers to identify or define the system of rs as a set of pur-

poses and related states to be achieved by O with reference to E. First, we define

the overall R in terms of what is called the mission of O, which is O’s own

guideline for the type of R over time that client managers would like to have.

This mission definition results from the best thinking the client can do about

interactions between E and O, making assumptions about both. Since E induces

constraints and even a set of values that restrict the “rationality” of O’s mission,

the consultant’s job is to test the assumptions about E and O logically and, if

6 PROCTOR

possible, empirically. Client managers are presented with decisions or trade-offs,

in which choices can be made about the kind of Rs and Es desired. This is what

happens when we arrive at a statement of product line, market, and raison d’étre

(such as maximizing return on investment). In effect, these statements have put

in a general way the combination of desired E and R, and assumed much about

what kinds of Rs are possible, proper, or good and what kinds of Rs are impossi-

ble, hurtful, or bad.

A pragmatic mission statement is developed in terms that facilitate its attain-

ment. This task requires the client to construct a set of sub-missions, goals and

interim objectives that permits a definition of the organization structural ele-

ments through which objectives will be attained. Both structural questions (who,

where) and procedural questions (what, when, how) are answered narratively

and graphically in terms of necessary primary functions. The functional net-

work of subgoals in essence defines either the structure (though not necessarily

the form) of the organism or its constraints. It does not necessarily bound the

possible process alternatives. Since we are attempting to specify a goal-seeking

dynamic condition over time, we speak of goals as configuring future desired

system states and objectives as configuring immediately desired system states.

We are essentially constructing a model of interrelated goals and objectives, a

2(r) system which is stated in such a way that it defines, at all levels of aggrega-

tion, the desired r with a specific e which concurrently ensures that the rs are

consistent with the overall relationship of O to E. Such a structural description 1s

called the functional structure. In recent years, various organization develop-

ment (OD) techniques have been developed for setting organization objectives.

The methodology is generally referred to as management by objectives or MBO

(Beck and Helman, 1972; Roeber, 1973).

Functional Analysis

Within this functional structure 2(r), we very carefully distinguish functions

from activities. Activities are the mechanics of function performance. They

derive their right to exist only with respect to the efficiency by which they allow

the function to be achieved effectively. Functions are goal- or objective-defined

collections of activities and the functional structure articulates the web of in-

terrelated goals and objectives. When involved in developing procedural, organi-

zational, and information solutions to management problems, we first devise

the functional structure through functional analysis. All activities that are not

amenable to goal-oriented articulation in a network culminating in and consis-

ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE a

tent with R itself are carefully excluded so that we can devise measures of

effectiveness for O and each subsystem o. !

Such a view provides a perspective for operationally distinguishing between

effectiveness and efficiency. Effectiveness is defined in terms of the quality and

correctness of an organization’s stated mission, goals, and objectives; it is a

measure of their relevance. Efficiency is a measure of the cost per unit time of

achieving an output that constitutes achievement of the mission, goal, etc.

Hence, efficiency can be measured by itself without respect to effectiveness,

even though such a measure is surely restrictive. Effectiveness cannot, from a

dollars-and-cents viewpoint, be defined without reference to efficiency. Given

limited resources, an organization cannot be effective unless efficient, but an

organization can be highly efficient without being at all effective.

‘However, the operational problem is to define both types of measures and

establish their relationship. By defining an organism O functionally in terms of

r, we have constructed the means of defining measures of effectiveness. When

measures of efficiency are developed, the two types of measures may be joined

into an operative scheme for management. In my experience, the failure to

approach the problem from a functional (7) point of view is a major cause of

untold confusion in institutions of every kind because the distinctions between

effectiveness and efficiency are not clear.

Further, the use of functional analysis as a means of capturing divergent and

convergent interactions 1s fundamental to a correct employment of general

systems/cybernetics models for the management of organizations. To better

develop the idea, let us use an example of a function. In a large transportation

company, maintenance is a complex, important, and expensive organization

subsystem requiring a large staff and an equally complex organization. The

transportation company has labelled major elements or subsystems as produc-

tion, production control, engineering, reliability, administration, planning, etc.

Each major element performs many activities. However, one of the company’s

~ overall objectives can be defined as the concurrent reduction of maintenance

costs and improvement of safety and services by means of the modification and

improvement of spare parts design. As such, this desired way of relating O to E is

a function that induces a convergence/divergence coupling of all the above

organizational elements of O. That is, the role of each major element in this

function clearly differentiates certain elements of the organization from others

and at the same time relates them in that function to the overall organism O. In

other words, the whole point of the 2(r) system defined functionally is to con-

struct a holistic description of all the functions of an organization such that each

is related to the final mission of O in a clear way but they are carefully distin-

guished from one another. This same form of description unifies the various

8 PROCTOR

activities under the functional objective, facilitating review of the necessity for

this or that activity to exist, and thereby distinguishing between issues related to

the efficiency of an activity and issues related to its relevance to the whole, i.e.,

its effectiveness.

As shown in Figure |, from a methodological perspective, we (the consultant

and client) are beginning with some configuration of people, equipment, facili-

ties, material, and money. First, as mentioned earlier, we attempt to define the

mission and to specify or bound E and R. Logically we would specify the present

E (E,) and the future E (E,) as well as the present R (R,) and the future R (Rj).

Often these are not compatible on the first definition cycle in the functional

analysis and some iteration is required.

Next we decompose the E (both E, and E,) into various constituent elements

for which some set of relationships (rs) are required. These rs define the objec-

tives and goals of O. We group these rs in a manner that we hope will facilitate a

definition of the processes by which they may be performed. Such groupings

vary from case to case. Their formation is largely an art form, although the

O-R-E-T model provides us with certain guidelines and checks.

These groupings are examined for interrelationship: How does the achieve-

ment of one function impact the achievement of others? These interrelation-

ships determine the network of rs (in terms of goals and objectives). Finally, we

construct the levels of feedback and aggregation for the functions. Levels of

feedback are defined in terms of how the function is evaluated and modified.

Levels of aggregation specify subfunction or subgoals as objectives whose ac-

complishment determines the achievement of a larger, more inclusive, goal or

objective.

Functional Process

The next question is how the functional structure is activated—how it is

articulated in terms of process. The dynamic aspects of a function are viewed as

process, a transformation from an existing r to a desired 7. From this viewpoint,

structure may be seen through time as stable process. In other words, if processes

exhibit some critical degree of stability, they will form an observable pattern

which I label structure. The key to identifying and examining process is the

specification of the information and communication required for an O to pro-

duce an output. It is by means of information that processes are initiated, sus-

tained, and redirected and that objectives are accomplished. It is fundamental to

describe the character of processes from a mission-, goal-, or objective-oriented

point of view. As Sir Peter Medawar (1973) has remarked, “‘[I]t was not the

ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE

INITIAL

CONFIGURATION

OF PEOPLE,

FACILITIES,

MATERIAL,

MONEY

tnt tee

BUR

FOSSA

SELECT ENVIRONMENT

PRESENT (Ep),

(Ef)

CHECK FOR

CONSISTENCY OF

MISSION & ENVIRONMENT

SEE OE OOO ig OP LO NETL ELISE

REVIEW e's

r's VERSUS E

Qe Qo

YES

FORM FUNCTIONAL

GROUPINGS, RELATIONS,

LEVELS

FUNCTIONAL

STUCTURE OF THE

ORGANIZATION

Fig. 1. Development of the functional structure of the organization through functional analysis.

10 PROCTOR

devising of the wheel that was distinctly human, we may suggest, but the com-

munication to others, particularly in the succeeding generation, of the ways to

make one.”

We initially present information descriptions in terms of transforms. A trans-

form describes the logic of a content or meaning change in information. Then

we develop a description of the information transfer. A transfer involves the

movement of information-bearing symbols from one place to another. A de-

scription of the flow of information in terms of transfers and transforms, within

and across functions, within and between levels of O (indeed throughout O), and

between O and E through time (T) completes the functional process description.

In practice, available time and money prohibit such a complete description.

We can now examine the existing elements of O and our initial configuration

of resources (see Figure |) to determine modified or new configurations of

people, equipment, facilities, and money to satisfy measures of organization

effectiveness and efficiency. I term these new resource combinations enabling

systems in that they are necessary to move the O from an “as is” state in

O-R-E-T to a “should be”’ state in O-R-E-T. Only at this point, after functional

analysis and functional process description, in my judgment, can one design

optimum configurations of resources and recommend to client management

resource allocation alternatives in terms of numbers of people, size of budgets,

amounts of inventory, and organization form and shape. This thinking appears

consistent with the broader view of employing quantitative methods or opera-

tions research techniques (Saaty, 1972). One may deal concurrently with pro-

cess in the organization development sense, but I am convinced that the infor-

mation and procedural logic must be correctly designed as a proper setting for

organization development.

Testing Assumptions and Crafting Recommendations

Herbert Simon (1956) has pointed out:

How complex or simple a structure is depends critically upon the way in

which we describe it. Most of the complex structures found in the world are

enormously redundant, and we can use this redundancy to simplify their

description. But to use it, to achieve the simplification, we must find the right

representation.

And I have not found any single approach that invariably leads to the “right”

representation. To test assumptions concerning the functional structure and

process descriptions and to suggest feasible alternative enabling system designs,

John Burns and I have adapted simulation and gaming techniques. With a

ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE . 11

general systems perspective, problem identification and solution can be de-

picted as shown in Figure 2. As previously discussed, each function relates to an

environment and the environment has been defined in a manner which permits

comparison of the present relationship (7,) with a desired relationship (74). It

should be noted that there may be two kinds of differences, with various atten-

dant measures of organization effectiveness and efficiency. The desired state is

different from the “‘as is’ state in kind or degree or both. In either case, the

difference presents a problem and the resolution of the difference involves prob-

lem solving.

The information character of problem solving begins by developing for a

particular o, r, and ea problem environment (PE). There may be different prob-

lem environments associated with one function of O or any of its constituent os.

For example, performing a printing plant scheduling function is different for job

shop environments and self-contained shop environments. This example is

fairly obvious, but in practice these differences are often overlooked, especially

when the functions or environments are more abstract. Moos (1973) discusses

important considerations in conceptualizing human environments. The prob-

lem solving process begins by defining the problem environment PE—that is, by

selecting appropriate segments e of the overall environment E and defining the

desired relationship, r; that the organization (O) or an element of the organiza-

tion (0) should have with those segments. The present relationship r, is then

compared to rz. The comparison is first articulated in terms of the differences

Ar. After the various factors causing the differences are determined, the various

strategies sketched in Figure 2 are used. The solution must then be communi-

cated to various organizational elements 0 (labeled in Figure 2 as a, b, and c) and

implemented; this causes a new relationship r, to exist between O and E. That

relationship must be evaluated. If it is found not adequate, the solution must be

appropriately modified, which may require iteration of part of the problem

solving cycle.

Problem-identification or problem-solving teams of client personnel orga-

nized by function and level, interdisciplinary teams of client specialists, and

games or exercises involving consultants and client managers can be used any-

where from the initial organization mission specification through the steps of

assumption testing to the suggestion of alternative enabling system designs. For

example, I have frequently encountered client “communication” subsystems

which consist only of information transfer description. To recommend alterna-

tive ways to improve operations optimally rather than maximally in terms of

communications, consultants have to work with clients to specify both informa-

tion transforms and transfers. Transforms and transfers arise on both the purely

logical and the interpersonal levels of communication. Transforms are the cor-

PROCTOR

{+ ig= PE}

. DEFINE

PROBLEM

ENVIRONMENT

. PROBLEM {fp versus rg}

IDENTIFICATION

. PROBLEM

DEFINITION {fa-fp =A r}

. PROBLEM Ar—+O e.g. either rp is to approach

SOLUTION rg, OF rg is deemed unrealistic and

a new fq is selected or rg is relaxed to

approach rj , resulting in the new

desired relationship Rad

. SOLUTION ria

COMMUNICATION

. SOLUTION ae

IMPLEMENTATION N

. SOLUTION

EVALUATION {tr-tng = A tn}

Fig. 2. Problem solving process in terms of relationship, r, analysis and modification.

ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE 13

nerstone—the necessary (but not sufficient) condition of ensuring effectiveness.

Transfers support transforms in the same sense that activities support functions.

Transfers must be measured in terms of effectiveness in the same sense—they

exist not for their own sake but only to accomplish and disseminate transforms.

One method I have found workable, using the O-R-E-T model to define and

develop transforms and transfers, is to combine operations research (OR) and

organizational development (OD) techniques in the design, staging, and devel-

opment of manual or computer-assisted simulations called controlled exercises

(Proctor, 1963). This combination of techniques takes the form of personnel

team building within a context of problems of a concrete nature specifically

designed in such a way that the preferred problem solution is explicit. Devia-

tions from interim and final problem solution steps can be observed and pro-

cesses can be quantitatively analyzed and evaluated.

O-R-E-T Summary

This O-R-E-T model presentation is undoubtedly highly abstract and mecha-

nistic; it even appears to be a static model for improving organization structure

and process. I fully appreciate the inadequacies of this form of presentation. In

practice much more is considered, but this simplified preparation helps me set

the stage for certain specific conclusions. Clients and consultants are heading for

trouble by beginning to devise the enabling systems, or use the O-R-E-T model

even with this simple formulation, without a basic statement of primary mis-

sion: What are we trying to do? What business are we in or would we like to be

in? Without that formulation, one can’t find an E or an R or even a hint of the

formulation of effectiveness and efficiency criteria. Organization improvements

proceed from this more fundamental goal, whose values precede rather than

follow the O-R-E-T model because those values must be articulated before one

can select a specific E from the universe of potential Es. I have come to believe

that these values, which many appear to assume are predictable, “given talented

people using modern techniques,” are by no means certain (Beer, 1979 and

1981). The questions ““What business are we in?” or ““Who are we?” are dis-

cussed and debated, resolved or left unanswered because of values, or what more

modestly could be termed options. That is, what managers perceive and desire

causes them to select options which precede and determine the directions taken

by their systems. One could argue that these options (“opts’’) are in turn con-

strained by larger systems, but a general system approach suggests that these

larger systems are themselves functions of perceptions and desires which pro-

mote super options (“‘super opts’’). So it seems reasonable to assume that under-

14 PROCTOR

lying and directing all formal or technological systems are apparently a set of

prior values or options.

Opts and Super Opts

Human social organizations have a “structure of mutual expectations”

(Vickers, 1957), the articulation of which has been discussed here in terms of

setting goals and objectives. However, there are no guarantees that these hu-

mans, acting themselves as goal-directed systems within higher order systems,

necessarily share a set of such expectations at the same or different levels. Nor is

it sure, as this discourse may have led the reader to believe, that they interact

only as formal information-processing problem-solving elements. As a practi-

tioner using operations research and organization development techniques, I

have observed that interactions often have a thrust of their own, independent of

the institution and of their given problem-solving role within that institution. In

other words, from a goal-changing point of view, we are confronted not only

with various types of interpersonal interactions, but also with the possibility of

self-defined and non-mutually-supportive interpersonal interactions. Concur-

rence of purposes, as idiosyncratically conceived at various levels of aggregation,

is not guaranteed. It is not a question of “logic”? so much as a question of

premises.

The articulation of these premises is crucial for those of us engaged in the

design, operation, combination, and renewal of organization structures and

processes. Our assumptions about why “they” behave as they do, individually or

in the aggregate, are critical. The predictability of either collective or individual

performance on which we all count to feed, fuel, heal, worship, and govern is

profoundly impacted by the phenomenon of collective (convergent) and con-

flicting (divergent) options.

Weare faced, it appears, with a system of values or collection of options which

produces various priority orderings of organization objectives—a system gain-

ing increasing attention within and across scientific disciplines (Laszlo, 1973;

Vickers, 1973). At the highest decision making level in any organization, the top

manager, acting either as an individual or on behalf of the owners or power

possessors, chooses an option (Lundberg, 1968), 1.e., “opts” for a specific rela-

tionship between O and an E. The overall selection of goal or purposes may or

may not coincide with the prevailing climate of social values at some level of

ageregation. A dynamic and changing relationship between institutional goals

and social values may begin. |

One might argue that the environment produces constraints that drive the

selection of the desired ends. In a cosmic sense, over an eternity, this may be

absolutely true. In a relative moment, however, the decision maker has a consid-

ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE 15

erable apparent range of choice, within definite constraints. An individual

within an organization may not opt for the success of some portion of the

organization, even his own. The impact of choice which defines O, R, and E

becomes generally greater as we move up what might be called the “power scale”’

toward some point which may be termed the culture itself (Boulding, 1956;

Ackoff and Emery, 1972). At that level we encounter super opts. It is important

to recognize their pervasive character.

Serge Moscovici (1972) has addressed the importance of these options for any

methodology of social understanding and has devised a provocative set of exam-

ples of the radical nature of social values for research in social psychology.

Studies in group dynamics are made from the viewpoint of work efficiency and

increased productivity, not job satisfaction. Studies of change have been under-

taken whose aim has been to reduce the resistance of one group to the goals of

‘another (labor and management respectively in the example discussed). Strate-

gies of conflict resolution are based on the value of clashes between nation-

states, not on ideologies or even material interests such as food. (This is a politi-

cal question which assumes the values of social units.) Some economists see rate

of return on investment as the fundamental value, while others select full em-

ployment.

In the species of goal-seeking human social interrelationships called manage-

ment systems, the general system/cybernetics approach has led me to adopt a

stance compatible with that expressed by J. Dennis Nolan (1974), who said, in

speaking of the functional analysis of behavior, “Since functional analysis is

neutral with respect to the desirability of behavior, it necessarily cannot specify

the alternatives (for the products of behavior’)’. Analyzing B. F. Skinner’s

approach, Nolan concluded that, rather than creating a value-free science, it

represents a technological strategy that begs the question of values.

In short, when we consider intentional organizational change in goal-seeking

human social systems, we are confronted with the questions ““Who am I?” and

““‘Where am I going?” on a level which transcends the construction of our techno-

logical systems model. And dealing on higher levels of aggregation does not

provide the answers. For whatever the O, the questions remain, and furthermore

exhibit themselves as a layer upon the Os.

Conclusions

During three decades, I have found that general systems theory and cyber-

netics provides a conceptual framework or point of view which is most helpful in

organizing and formalizing intentional efforts to change organizations (Proctor,

1985). There are ways of first distinguishing and then synthesizing process and

structure as well as dealing with related questions of effectiveness and efficiency.

16 PROCTOR

In addition, there are ways of synthesizing formal logical problem-solving and

human problem-solving processes in the context of concrete problem-solving

situations faced by the organizations with which we deal.

Asa paradigm for a scientific, operational approach to consulting with organi-

zations, general systems/cybernetics continues to clarify hypothesis formulation

and evaluation capabilities. However, the necessary methodological focus on

objectives, goals, and missions has led me to believe that individual and collec-

tive options arising from values lie at the root of these organisms. ““While man-

agement is a discipline—that is, an organized body of knowledge and as such

applicable everywhere—it is also ’culture.’ It is not value free science.”

(Drucker, 1974; Rifkin, 1987)

These values are real. To fail to articulate both the structure and process of

interacting values presages failure for consultant and client. To study them ina

laboratory or controlled experiment is important. But, if utility (or “get results’’)

is the name of the game, these laboratory experiments are transferable to the

external world only to the extent to which they are empirically “correct” at their

chosen level of human system aggregation. Geoffrey Vickers points out that

“‘when we set out to shape our institutions—even to form a company—we are

not creating order out of chaos. We are intervening in a dynamic situation

already regulated by its own laws.” (Vickers, 1957)

It seems to be exceedingly difficult to devise useful predictive models of these

kinds of human-centered organizations without at a minimum explicating the

ends and values involved. At least this is true for prediction of organizational

effectiveness and efficiency and for classification of structure and processes as

well as growth and decay. Controlled experiments involving the effects of choice

are only valid if the existing world system operates in conformity with the

controls placed by the experimenter. This is exactly the question which arose in

management by objectives: Whose objectives?

The conclusion, then, is that general systems/cybernetics can provide a useful

scientific paradigm with conventional scientific methods in the sense that it

proposes an interdisciplinary theoretical framework for analytical investigation

of highly complex human-centered organisms. However, there are bounds. In

the end, scientific investigation of human social organizations cannot be value-

free. The values of any theory or experiment must be stated and only in this

sense is a dialectic possible between traditional science and general systems

theory, between theory and practice, between the laboratory and the practical

world (Caws, 1968).

Even using general systems theory, transferring models, research, or experi-

ments from the laboratory to the real world is risky at best, and the subject

requires extensive open debate. Models, computer-assisted or otherwise, which

ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE 17

cannot frame or account for the multiplicity of and convergence/divergence of

values and their enormously complex interactions may:be misapplied.

Scientists, philosophers, and practitioners constantly must take responsibility

for articulating their own values, their conception of the ends and objectives of

the social organisms which they perceive, theorize, or build models about and

experiments upon, especially when they may possess perceptions which may be

capable of directly influencing institutional values.

It would be nice for all, from any vantage point, if various values were mutu-

ally agreed upon so that acts achieved goals satisfying all. If not satisfying all,

they would be judged to be at least minimally injurious, in some qualitative

sense. Many legal, political, or moral “controls” are instituted toward that end,

but the devisers and appliers of these controls are operating from a point of view.

The question of whose objectives, whose values, and what values transcend what

_values becomes very real to consultants, theorists, managers, and modelers

working for or with companies and government agencies, or other aggregates of

human social organisms.

Practical improvement of certain organizations at certain times is possible.

However, there are no guarantees of sustained future improvements and no

guarantees that formal models can predict or formulate the nature of social

organisms. In fact, scientific methodologies in this realm, to be of any lasting

consequence, must articulate values and take a stand upon attendant matters of

underlying ethical choice. If this is done, the world, even if never ideal, may see

substantive improvement. People sense this. Hopefully, scientists and philoso-

phers do too.

References

Ackoff, R. L., & Emery, F. E. (1972). On ideal-seeking systems. General Systems Yearbook, 17:17-24.

Beck, A. C., and Helman, E. D. (Eds.) (1972). A practical approach to organization development through

MBO—Selected readings. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.

Beer, S. (1960). Below the twilight arch. General Systems Yearbook, 5:15-17.

Beer, S. (1979). The heart of the enterprise. London: Wiley.

Beer, S. (1981). Brain of the firm. London: Wiley.

Bertalanfy, L. V. (1956). General systems theory. General Systems Yearbook, 1:3.

Boulding, K. (1956). General systems theory—the skeleton of science. General Systems Yearbook, 1:11-17.

Braham, M. (1973). A general theory of organization. General Systems Yearbook, 18:13-24.

Caws, P. (1968). Science and system: On the unity and diversity of scientific theory. General Systems Year-

book, 13:11.

Drucker, P. (1974). Management tasks-responsibilities-practices. New York: Harper & Row.

Fraser, J. T. (1975). Of time, passion, and knowledge. New Y ork: Georges Braziller.

Hall, A. O., & Fagen, R. E. (1956). Definition of system. General Systems Yearbook, 1:21.

Laszlo, E. A. (1973). A systems philosophy of human values. Behavioral Science, 18:242-249.

Lundberg, F. (1968). The rich and the super rich. New York: Lyle Stuart.

Medawar, P. (1973, May). What’s human about man is his technology. Smithsonian, 4:22-29.

Miller, J. G. (1978). Living Systems. McGraw-Hill, New York.

Moos, R. H. (1973). Conceptualizations of human environments. American Psychologist, 28:652-665S.

Morris, R. (1984). Scientific attitudes toward time. New York: Simon & Schuster.

18 PROCTOR

Moscovici, S. (1972). Society and theory in social psychology. In J. Israel & H. Tajfel (Eds.), The context of

social psychology: A candid assessment (pp. 17-68). London: Academic Press.

Nolan, J. D. (1974). Freedom and dignity: A functional’ analysis. American Psychologist, 29:157-160.

Proctor, J. H. (1963). Normative exercising: An analytical and evaluative aid in system design. JEEE Transac-

tions On Engineering Management, EM-10:183-192.

Proctor, J. H. (1985). Speculation about pain and stress. In L. Ng & J. Proctor (Eds.), Management of pain and

stress, past, present, and future. Washington: The American Division, World Academy of Art and Science.

Rifkin, J. (1987). Time wars: The primary conflict in human history. New York: Henry Holt and Company.

Roeber, R. J. C. (1973). The organization in a changing environment. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.

Saaty, T. L. (1972). Operations research: Some contributions to mathematics. Science, 178:1061-1070.

Simon, H. A. (1956). The architecture of complexity. General Systems Yearbook, 1:63-76.

Sutherland, J. W. (1973). Axiological predicates of scientific enterprise. General Systems Yearbook, 19:3.

(Quotation originally appeared in Sutherland, J. W., A general systems philosophy for the social and behav-

ioral sciences. New York: Braziller.)

Vickers, G. (1957). Control, stability, and choice. General Systems Yearbook, 2:1-8.

Vickers, G. (1973). Motivation theory—a cybernetic contribution. Behavioral Science, 18:242-249.

Weaver, W. (1948). Science and complexity. American Scientist, 36:536.

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences,

Volume 82, Number 1, Pages 19-36, March 1992

Can Hydro-Reservoirs in Tropical Moist

Forest Become Environmentally

Sustainable?

Robert Goodland

Environment Department, World Bank, Washington, DC

Anastacio Juras

Environment Department of Eletronorte, Brasilia

Rajendra Pachauri’

Tata Research Institute, New Delhi and President,

International Power Engineering Society

ABSTRACT

Today’s polarization of society “for” and “against” big hydroprojects relates to environ-

mental costs, particularly borne by vulnerable ethnic minorities and the poor; such costs

include species extinctions and tropical deforestation. This counter-productive polarization

can be reconciled by transparency of planning, pluralism involving the society and especially

all affected people, and by engendering national consensus on the best project. Detailed

criteria for consensus are discussed. These include promotion of energy efficiency and con-

servation, ranking of alternatives to the next hydro project, and environmental ranking of

potential sites. Environmentally well designed hydro can be preferable to alternatives (coal,

nuclear), and most environmental costs can be prevented, thus making hydro renewable and

sustainable.

To observers such as ourselves, society in an increasing number of tropical

forest-owning countries seems to have become polarized into two

' Respectively: Environment Department of the World Bank, Washington, DC. Fax: 202-477-0565; Envi-

ronment Department of Eletronorte, Brasilia, DF; Tata Research Institute, New Delhi, and President, Interna-

tional Power Engineering Society.

20 GOODLAND, JURAS, AND PACHAURI

extremes—supporters and opponents of big hydroprojects.? The media inform

us about opponents brandishing machetes at confrontations with power engi-

neers in the Amazon, thousands of demonstrators opposing dams in several

countries, hundreds of thousands of signatures on petitions to the United Na-

tions received by the Secretary-General, and even an international celebrity,

Baba Amte, starving himself to death on the banks of the Narmada river in

India. One government is alleged to have fallen partly because of a hydroproject

proposed for a valuable southern rainforest, and several projects slated for tropi-

cal forest areas have been canceled or indefinitely postponed partially or entirely

on environmental grounds.?

This tropical forest dam controversy transcends helping the power utilities

win consensus and defuse polarization. We are concerned with global sustaina-

bility.* One of the most effective ways to achieve sustainability is to accelerate

the transition to renewable energy. Hydroprojects that have lower impacts and

higher benefits than alternatives may play a substantial part. We postpone to

another occasion the debate on large versus small projects. We are certain that

the world cannot afford business as usual. This is doubly true for big dams: there

is not enough capital available at affordable cost to meet projected demand for

power (Imran & Barnes, 1990; Moore & Smith, 1990; World Bank, 1989). The

political polarization for and against hydropower seems most extreme in coun-

tries with tropical forests. This is understandable because tropical forests are

often associated with major untouched rivers and are also the world’s richest

source of biodiversity. Such countries exist in Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

So this is very much a global debate; it is not restricted to one or two countries.

Both poles could be perceived as adopting extreme positions and unwilling to

explore any middle ground. The most promising approach to reconciliation is to

build on the progress in hydroproject design (Table 1), broadening the constitu-

* The most comprehensive documentations of this polarization are Goldsmith and Hildyard’s (1985-1991)

three-volume opus, and Williams (1991).

3 Recent costly dam fights, mainly over environmental issues, include the following: India’s 240-MW Silent

Valley hydroproject in Kerala’s remnant rain forest was cancelled in 1980. Thailand 1986 Nam Choan: 2000

MW was lost after feasibility stage. Thailand 1991 Pak Mun: the dam was relocated and its height lowered;

delayed but now proceeding. Brazil 1988 Babaquara: 6000 MW was lost, due to campaign by rock singer Sting.

India Narmada: 5 year delay after feasibility, new investigation (1991-2) awaited. Australia’s 180-MW Frank-

lin River in Tasmania’s World Heritage Rain Forest was shelved in 1983. (Commissao Pro-Indio, 1989;

Margulis, 1990; Paiva, 1977, 1982; Rosa, 1989; Rosa et al., 1988; Santos & de Andrade, 1988).

“ Sustainability as a concept has been formally endorsed as an official priority of the United Nations system,

and by the World Bank. Although the Bank knows more about the concept than it is comfortable admitting, it

is difficult to operationalize the concept in all work. As they depend on the hydrological cycle, hydroprojects

are theoretically renewable indefinitely. Sustainability here refers to two levels. First, the environmental and

social costs—often not fully internalized—must be valued and clearly outweighed by the benefits. Second, the

life of the project must not be damaged by environmental abuse, such as rapid sedimentation due to lack of

watershed management upstream. Daly and Cobb (1989) have thought through the concept of sustainability

the furthest. Other references include Adams (1990), Goodland et al. (1991), and Goodland & Daly (1991,

1992).

HYDRO-RESERVOIRS IN TROPICAL FORESTS 21

Table 1.—Broadening the Design Constituency of Hydroprojects

Design Team ' Approximate Era

1. Engineers Pre-WWII Dams

2. Engineers + Economists Post-WWII Dams

3. Engineers + Economists + EIS° Late 1970s

4. Engineers + Economists + Environmentalists Late 1980s

5. Engineers + Economists + Environmentalists + Affected People Early 1990s

6. Engineers + Economists + Environmentalists + Affected People + NGOs

(Non-Governmental Organizations) Late 1990s

7. Engineers + Economists + Environmentalists + Affected People + NGOs

+ National Consensus Early 2000s ?

Note: These dates hold more for industrial nations than for developing ones, although meaningful consulta-

tions with affected people or their advocates and local NGOs, and the involvement of environmentalists in

project design are now mandatory for all World Bank-assisted projects.

-ency. The aim is to promote a national debate to ascertain whether there are

criteria under which some acceptable and sustainable reservoirs could be devel-

oped in tropical forest regions.

We believe that both the transparency in decision-making and the pluralism

necessary for success in such a debate will themselves significantly contribute to

consensus-building. The whole process, including access to consolidated bud-

gets, must be transparent so that the identities of the recipients of subsidies will

be known to all. To achieve pluralism, academia, NGOs, the private sector, and

the government must be included. This requires a certain amount of decentral-

ization, especially of mitigatory measures. Full participation, especially of af-

fected people and their advocates, also is essential. This brings responsibility: all

groups must be held accountable for objective performance standards. In addi-

tion, environmental standards for development projects are improving. There-

fore, because a reservoir may take twenty years from investigation to comple-

tion, today’s best practice is the minimum acceptable standard. Let us assume

that national criteria can be agreed upon and that they can be substantially met.

Are there conditions under which such a reservoir could be justified? Our opin-

ion is yes. Many hydroprojects are fraught with impossible environmental prob-

lems, but for others, such problems can be solved—although with much more

effort than is expended today. On the other hand, hydroprojects with large

reservoirs also may have major side benefits, such as flood control, improved

water quality, and fisheries. Under certain conditions, recreation, tourism, irri-

gation, and navigation can be made compatible with hydropower. Even without

the added benefits of hydropower, the environmental problems of coal (e.g.,

> EIS: Environmental Impact Statement, which was started when the design was complete—a recipe for

confrontation and waste.

22 GOODLAND, JURAS, AND PACHAURI

Table 2.—Environmental Ranking of New Energy Sources (Simplified)

BEST

. SOLAR (+ hydrogen)

. PHOTOVOLTAICS

. WIND RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE

. TIDAL & WAVES

BIOMASS (+ alcohol)

HYDRO POTENTIALLY SUSTAINABLE

. GEOTHERMAL

GAS

OIL NON-RENEWABLE & UNSUSTAINABLE

. COAL

. NUCLEAR

—=SOWIDNARWNH—

— et

WORST

Note: As energy efficiency and energy conservation are becoming recognized as supply options in tropical

nations, they would top this ranking.

carbon dioxide, greenhouse effect) and of nuclear power® are much less solvable

(Table 2). Now that economic development is being decoupled from energy

consumption, damping of electricity demand need not constrain economic de-

velopment for many developing countries. On the contrary, the less investment

needed in energy, the more becomes available for job creation elsewhere.

What might such national criteria be? Producers, consumers, and govern-

ment should compile their own lists and their own ideas on the criteria they

judge necessary. The present list is suggestive only. The criteria-setting process

must be widely transparent in order to engender national consensus. The pur-

pose of this paper is to present the case that tropical forest reservoirs meeting such

national criteria could be made environmentally acceptable.

Assume that a hypothetical nation, some of which is tropical forest, has

reached national consensus that more energy is needed. Agreed-on criteria have

been met. Efficiency and conservation have been substantially achieved.

Brownouts, load shedding, and rationing are unavoidable in the near future.

The choice is among coal, nuclear, and hydro. All gas and oil has been exploited

or is not economic. The scope for interconnections with neighboring countries

° The nuclear industry has spent about 75% of total R & D budgets over the last four decades, but even now

only generates 3% of global commercial energy. Rather than earning a profit after all these subsidies, the

industry has abandoned nuclear plants, causing $10 billion in losses for shareholders in the US alone. As

10 000 to 20 000 new nuclear plants, or one new plant every three or four days, would be needed over the next

40 years to replace coal, the use of nuclear power is highly inadvisable. The enormous number of victims of the

1986 Chernobyl accident, a number likely to exceed 4 million, will postpone any recrudescence of nuclear

projects. If even the skilled and disciplined Japanese can be crippled by the “very serious” 9 February 1991

accident in Mihama, the possibilities in 10 000-20 000 new plants are not reassuring. If the problem of

radioactive waste storage is solved, and, in addition, if “inherently” safe designs are achieved, then prospects

would improve.

HYDRO-RESERVOIRS IN TROPICAL FORESTS 23

has been exploited or is not feasible. (This is important because interconnec-

tions enable a more acceptable site in a neighboring country to be taken up

before a worse site in the country in question. Cooperation between Uganda and

Kenya is a case in point.)

The crucial national question urgently needing resolution is: Is there a set of

criteria that could justify reservoirs in tropical forest regions? Although this

would apply to tropical forest dams in general, important country-specific crite-

ria also would be necessary. Thus trade-offs are being faced in many countries,

such as those between massive increases in coal-burning on the one hand and

constructing dams—such as the world’s biggest dam, Three Gorges in China,

and the Narmada dams in India—on the other. Global common property issues

such as carbon dioxide accumulation and biodiversity conservation should not

be compromised by country-specific criteria.

Sector Criteria

For the purposes of this discussion, we assume that the following conditions

prevail: The price of electricity must substantially have already reached long-run

marginal cost. Practically all consumers must have been metered; meters are

substantially precise; major arrears cause prompt cessation of service. The finan-

cial stability of the power utility has to be ensured.

Most energy conservation and efficiency measures must substantially be in

place, both in generation and transmission, as well as inside homes and factories

(Shepard, 1991). That is, the marginal economic cost (including environmental

externalities) of saving an additional kilowatt-hour through conservation must

be as high as the marginal cost of a new one produced and delivered to the

consumer. This follows from the assumption above. Because conservation mea-

sures are always advancing, implementation will always lag behind savings po-

tential. The goal is to minimize this lag. Also, conservation cannot reap results

overnight because of restraints on the pace of replacing capital stock, plus other

‘factors. A long-term, least-cost energy services perspective is needed. And

“least” cost here must fully include environmental and social costs borne in the

future (inter-generational costs). Because markets are not perfectly efficient,

decoupling of profits from sales is in the utilities’ interest, so that they can make

money on margin and not on volume. Progressive utilities have started selling

conservation to consumers. Utilities should be rewarded for efficiency. (Anan-

dalingam, 1987; Chandler, 1985; Fickett et al., 1990; Flavin, 1985, 1986; Flavin

& Durning, 1988; Gamba et al., 1986; Goldemburg, 1988; Guzman, 1987;

Hagler, Bailley Co., 1987; Holdren, 1987; IEA, 1987, 1988; Januzzi et al., 1991;

Johnson, 1989; Lovins, 1990; Moreira, 1989; Naviglio, 1990; Noguiera, 1991;

Procel, 1990; Van Domelen, 1988; World Bank, 1989a,b.)

24 GOODLAND, JURAS, AND PACHAURI

Discounts encouraging overconsumption by large consumers must have been

repealed. However, the companies need not have been penalized to the extent

that they start to generate their own power, with possibly worse impacts. Large

consumers must have shifted to less electricity-intensive methods where eco-

nomically feasible. (Aluminum smelting will always be energy intensive.) Na-

tional energy efficiency equipment standards must be in place. Cogeneration

potential must have been rationally exploited.

All economically perverse subsidies and other incentives must have been

rescinded. For example, some electricity and fuel pricing policies mandate that

electricity and gasoline/diesel prices be the same at the power plant, refinery,

port, or capital city as they are at the farthest frontier outpost. Such policies

promote excessive consumption of fuel, distort industrial, population, and agri-

cultural-siting policies, raise prices in the main load centers, and discourage

efficient energy production in remote areas.

All rehabilitation and expansion of existing sites must already have been

accomplished. This is almost always achieved at much less environmental and

economic cost than construction of new sites. The large number of hydropro-

jects completed in the 1950s and 1960s can be modernized to postpone the need

for new projects. Owen’s Falls, for example, only turbines 50% of the avail-

able water.

Dam Criteria

As outlined above for sector criteria, we assume all reservoir sites outside

tropical forests either already have been developed or are not socially, environ-

mentally or economically acceptable. The following six criteria are proposed

(ordering does not imply priority).

First, the proposed dam should have a high ratio of power production to area

inundated. Some hydroprojects have no reservoirs. On a ratio of kilowatts per

hectare,’ the reservoirs with the highest ratios, in the many hundreds, include

Pehuenche, Guavio and Paulo Afonso: all exceed 100.® The lowest-ratio reser-

voirs include Brokopondo, Balbina, Sobradinho, Samuel, Babaquara, and

Curua-Una, all under 5. Babaquara’s low ratio contributed to its cancellation. A

few, such as Suriname’s Brokopondo and Burkina Faso’s Kompienga, have

ratios less than 1. One admittedly arbitrary criterion or cutoff point could be 30,

’ This is a serviceable but arbitrary ratio. Both GWh and Kwh/ha would be better indicators.

8 This paper focuses on hydro-reservoirs, which are increasingly common in tropical moist forest, rather

than on irrigation reservoirs, which do not occur in tropical moist forest; some multipurpose reservoirs and

those in tropical dry forest remnants (e.g., India’s Narmada) are mentioned. Irrigation reservoirs may be slated

for the tropical dry forest remnants; these would be even more problematic than those in tropical wet forest.

HYDRO-RESERVOIRS IN TROPICAL FORESTS. 25

as in Tucurui (Table 3). Clearly, this depends on an expanded cost-benefit

analysis in each case. If the ecosystem to be flooded is intact primary tropical

forest, the ratio should be set much higher, say 100; if the ecosystem is agricul-

tural or degraded land, then the ratio should be set lower. Economists are strug-

gling to assign prices to intangibles, irreversibles, and intergenerational equity,

such as those involved in the extinction of species.

Second, the proposed site and surroundings should have had a thorough biotic

inventory, and there should be no centers of species endemism, rich biodiversity,

or other special features. The ecosystem of the proposed site should be very well

conserved in perpetuity nearby, as a compensatory area ecologically equivalent

to or better than the flooded area. The biotic salvage will be effective.’

Third, the reservoir water retention time should be brief—days or weeks,

rather than many months (1.e., a rapid circulation rate). The shorter the reten-

tion time, the less time there will be for anaerobic conditions to be created, and

the better will be the water quality in the impounded area, as well as downstream

for all uses.'° The nearer to “run-of-river” the project is, the fewer will be the

environmental problems. The tradeoff here will be between valuable inter-sea-

sonal and over-year regulation, which can be less necessary in seasonless rain

forest areas.

Less regulatory capacity means fewer benefits from flood control. This essen-

tially means two types of sites are especially valuable. The first type is a canyon

in which the reservoir does not rise above the top; these do not need large flows.

Harnessing waterfalls that fish never ascend prevents migratory fish problems.

The second type is no-head in-stream axial turbines which do not flood any

forest. The best sites have such low volumes of biomass that decay will neither

contribute significantly to greenhouse gases, nor impair fish and water quality,

nor waste valuable biomass, nor clog turbine intakes. Removal of economically

extractable biomass decreases greenhouse gas production and water quality

risks. By inventing submersible chainsaws, Eletronorte (the federal power

“agency for the Amazon region of Brazil) utilizes already inundated trees in their

Tucurui reservoir (Cadman, 1991). Brief retention time has to be balanced with

storage needed for irrigation and navigation.

Fourth, there should be no vulnerable ethnic minorities living in or using the

general area of the proposed site. No other settlements should be affected, unless

* Live rescue for release into biotically impoverished habitat or into zoos and arboreta has rarely been

effective historically, although captive breeding and reintroduction merits invigoration. More cataloguing and

preservation of seeds and dead specimens also is urgently needed.

'© Decaying tropical forest generates massive volumes of greenhouse gases, especially methane, which is 32

times more damaging than carbon dioxide. Large, shallow reservoirs from which forest is not removed may

generate vastly more greenhouse gas than a coal-fired thermal equivalent (Gupta & Pachauri, 1990).

26 GOODLAND, JURAS, AND PACHAURI

the livelihood of the deported after resettlement is guaranteed to be better than it

was before, as measured by systematic socio-economic surveys. Higher firm-

Gwh/family-displaced ratio projects should have preference. But more signifi-

cant is the subsequent improvement in livelihood. This means the proposed site

has been thoroughly assessed by sociological and anthropological professionals,

well before any decisions have been made. Direct internalization of costs needed

for adequate resettlement may be acceptable for normal deportees. But for

vulnerable ethnic minorities, experience shows that it has not yet been possible

to achieve adequate resettlement. If roads, employee housing, and construction

materials are available near the proposed site, that will reduce the impact

further.

Sometimes it is not obvious who the beneficiaries are. For example, in tropi-

cal forest reservoirs used for export aluminum smelting, the beneficiaries are the

industrial countries’ aluminum consumers. The question then arises: For whom

are the tropical hydroproject owners deciding? Similarly, in James Bay, the Cree

claim the land flooded; the Quebec and Canadian governments also have

claims. Is North America the beneficiary? These questions highlight the need to

address explicitly the tradeoff between the beneficiaries and the people bearing

the costs.

Fifth, there should be no water-related diseases, such as malaria, Japanese ’B’

encephalitis, or schistosomiasis anywhere in the general region. Nor may they be

likely to arrive. The risk of their arrival is reduced by destruction of the nearest

foci. If water-related diseases are present, they must be eradicated, preferably

before the impoundment creates more habitat. If this is impossible, the diseases

should be controlled to the best extent feasible and a public health component

should be integrated into project design.

Sixth, the proposed dam should be sited above undammed tributaries, to help

minimize changes in flood regime (on which wetlands depend) and to provide

alternative upriver sites for migratory fish. There is much uncertainty even in

the relatively very simple, depauperate Northern fish biological systems and in

their behavior related to impoundments. Certainly much more effort than at

present is needed to increase the benefits and opportunities from fisheries.

Also, the dam should be proposed for an already dammed river. From the

environmental point of view, dams should be concentrated on already dammed

rivers, rather than siting one or a few dams on a larger number of rivers. Thus, a

representative sample of the nation’s rivers would remain in their natural, free-

flowing state. This tradeoff with the risk of low flows curtailing power output

should not be common to the extent tropical wet forested catchments are not

usually seasonal. In multi-purpose dams, the enormous value of the annual

flood restoring productivity downstream should be factored in.

HYDRO-RESERVOIRS IN TROPICAL FORESTS 27

Table 3.—Hydropower Generated per Hectare Inundated (Examples only)

Final Rated Normal Area of

Capacity Reservoir Kilowatts

Project (Country) (MW) (ha) per Hectare

Paulo Afonso (Brazil) I-IV 3984 1600 2490

Pehuenche (Chile) 500 400 1250

Guavio (Colombia) 1600 1500 1067

Rio Grande II (Colombia) 324 1100 295

Itaipu (Brazil and Paraguay) 12600 135000 93

Aguamilpa (Mexico) 960 12000 80

Sayanskaya (USSR) 6400 80000 80

Churchill Falls (Canada) 5225 66500 79

Grand Coulee (USA) 2025 32400 63

Urra I (Colombia) 340 6200 5

Jupia (Brazil) 1400 33300 42

Sao Simao (Brazil) 2680 66000 41

Tucurui (Brazil) 7600 243000 Si

Ilha Solteira (Brazil) 3200 120000 25)

_Guri (Venezuela) 6000 328000 18

Paredao (Brazil) 40 2300 17

Urra II (Colombia) 860 54000 16

Cabora Bassa (Mozambique) 4000 380000 14

Three Gorges (PRC) 13000 110000 12

Furnas (Brazil) 1216 144000 8

Aswan High Dam (Egypt) 2100 40000 5

Curua-Una (Brazil) 40 8600 5

Samuel (Brazil) 2G, 57900 4

Tres Maria (Brazil) 400 105200 4

Kariba (Zimbabwe/Zambia) 1500 510000 3

Petit-Saut (French Guiana) 87 31000 2.8

Sobradinho (Brazil) 1050 421400 2

Balbina (Brazil) 250 236000

Babaquara (Brazil) 6600 600000 l

Akosombo (Ghana) 833 848200 0.9

Kompienga (Burkina Faso) 14 20000 0.7

Brokopondo (Suriname) 30 150000 0.2

Note: This table is only partially indicative, since it does not reflect the value of the land inundated, which

can vary significantly. Some of the land inundated is river bed. The more reliable ratio kwh/ha (instead of

kw/ha) is being calculated. The ranking would be improved, but little altered, if river bed or normal annual

flood areas were subtracted. Islands in the reservoir also could be subtracted in certain cases. Some of these

figures are for non-forest reservoirs and most are hydropower, rather than irrigation reservoirs. Area inundated

is the key issue. Less seasonal tropical wet forest reservoirs do not need to be large. Optimizing the tradeoffs at

the margin of reservoir capacity is more important than choosing between having or not having a reservoir.

It is relatively easy to include bottom sluices at the design stage for such

releases. Dams should not cause species extinctions, including those of migra-

tory fish that would be denied access to breeding or feeding sites. This means the

damming of the last few free-flowing rivers in a region will be even more difficult

to justify.

In tropical forest areas, roads built to facilitate hydroproject construction or

operation can “open up” significant areas to colonization and deforestation.

Therefore, care must be taken during road planning and operation to reduce this

eflect:

28 GOODLAND, JURAS, AND PACHAURI

Criteria on Small-Scale and Unconventional Power Potentials

Small-scale and unconventional potential alternatives are being examined or

are already substantially exploited. Privately owned renewable energy genera-

tors sell surplus to utilities. Such alternatives include:

a) No-dam (or very low head) axial tube turbines within the river.

b) Small generating systems (including water wheels).

c) Solar power elsewhere in the country (including photovoltaics, tidal, wind and hy-

drogen from splitting water molecules).!!

d) Biomass energy production (biomass plantations, garbage and sewage).

Many tropical forest countries contain dry, sunny, or even desertic regions

where solar powered electric plants can be sited. They occupy 5% to 10% of the

land of even the “best” (i.e., high head / low area) hydroschemes, and often can

put otherwise unproductive land to sustainable use. We believe, and the World

Bank is in process of calculating, that solar power is already economic in com-

parisons with hydro when the value of inundated forest is internalized, even

imperfectly.

Population Stability Criteria

Human population stability is an essential precondition for all sustainable use

of renewable resources, including use both of hydropower and of tropical for-

ests. Human populations of tropical moist forest-owning countries annually

increase by more than 2.4%, which means a doubling in 25 years. Sustainability

criteria will be difficult enough to fulfill without having to double the electricity

supply every 25 years. The situation is more severe in those countries in which

the per capita electricity use also is rising. Average planned power demand

growth is about 7% in developing countries—a doubling every ten years. (In

Brazil per capita use is projected to rise 55% by 2000).

It is sensible to permit electricity companies to profit from their customers’

investments in conservation. Utilities should not be penalized for investments

in conservation. An increasing number of Northern utilities now find it more

economic, rather than to generate more electricity, to provide free fluorescent

light fixtures and to promote or even to subsidize other more efficient appliances

for consumers. This suggests, as we noted above, that the pricing policy is wrong

in these cases. Although this requires sensible action on pricing in the power

market which does not yet exist in most developing countries, the preference is

'' Hydrogen from splitting water molecules is likely to become economically and technically feasible very

soon (Ogden & Williams, 1989). While it is difficult to generate SOOMW from garbage and sewage now, a large

number of smaller such plants reduces the need for large projects.

HYDRO-RESERVOIRS IN TROPICAL FORESTS 29

clear. Utilities now conduct free energy audits for consumers, showing where

energy can be conserved most.

To the extent this holds for population, power doinondtiolis support of gov-

ernmental family planning goals will reduce the national controversies and

project delays commonly experienced. Power corporations already help to the

extent that televisions are contraceptive. We do not want to burden the power

sector with nghting all societal ills. However, population stability is so impor-

tant for sustainability that family planning or similar activities should be compo-

nents of all relevant projects, including those in the power sector.

Case Example of Brazil

The above suggestions are generic rather than specific to any particular coun-

try. However, Brazil, Eletrobras (its federal power agency), and Eletronorte in

- particular are deeply concerned with both energy conservation and environmen-

tal impacts. So is the citizenry—if not more so (Eletrobras, 1986, 1987, 1990;

Goldemburg, 1987; Holtz, 1989; Juras, 1990, 1991; Lacerda, 1990; Serra, 1991;

Zatz, 1990). Brazil has probably saved more than US $1 000 000 000 in new

generation capacity avoided because of recent major improvements in the elec-

tricity tariff structure, which led to more conservation and efficiency (Geller,

1986, 1988, 1990). The World Bank has commended Brazil for moving towards

a more appropriate tariff structure and in the direction of the difficult goal of

raising the price of electricity towards the long-run marginal cost of production.

The World Bank values the partnership with Eletrobras and has assisted in

financing the federal electricity conservation program, under the direction of

the Science and Technology Secretariat. The World Bank also is glad to be

partners with the National Environmental Secretariat in the first and biggest

loan solely for national environmental priorities and institutional strengthening

(US $117 000 000 in February 1990).

The government, Eletrobras, Eletronorte, and environmentalists are adopting

a new position on new Amazonian hydroprojects as a result of evolution of

environmental awareness, specific legislation, and experience with Amazonian

issues (Adam, 1988; Eletrobras, 1986, 1987, 1989, 1990; Goldemberg & Bar-

bosa, 1989). Current construction rankings suggest that environmental criteria

are most effective when applied proactively. This emphasis on environment,

conservation, and efficiency is exceptionally well placed. The recent hiring of

substantial numbers of environmental professional staff by all Eletrobras’ con-

cessionaires is encouraging. For example, Eletronorte’s environmental staff rose

from less than one at the time Tucurui was designed in the late 1970’s to over

100 today (Goodland, 1978, 1990, 1991). Environmental training throughout

the entire power sector has increased dramatically.

30 GOODLAND, JURAS, AND PACHAURI

Capital availability is a major constraint on the power sector, which has been

responsible for as much as 25% (US $30 000 000 000, 1973-83: now about

19%) of Brazil’s foreign debt. Eletrobras may require of the order of US

$7 500 000 000 to meet its 1991-2000 demand projections. In today’s era of

severely limited capital, such huge public investments in any sector, such as

power supply, could force reductions in investments in other sectors, especially

environment and the social sectors—education, nutrition, and health—as well

as in poverty alleviation. Thus electricity, formerly a driving force behind social

and economic development, could instead hinder vital welfare gains if improved

pricing, conservation, and environmental precautions are not achieved. We

could be entering an era in which power investments reduce investments in

other sectors whose growth was the driving force underlying electricity demand

projections.

Electricity rationing started during the 1985-86 Northeast drought and is

projected to increase in the mid-1990s. Eletrobras projects that electricity de-

mand will double between 1988 and 2000. This means that 37 000 MW needs to

be installed by 2000. How can we best install the equivalent of three new Itaipus

—the world’s largest hydroproject—in this decade? How can we avoid repeating

delays, confrontations, and wastage?

Reports are guardedly encouraging. One of the next Amazonian dams may be

the 1328-MW Serra Quebrada project just upstream from Tucurui. This meets

many of the criteria listed above, and contrasts starkly with the Balbina/Baba-

quara-type (Cummings, 1991; Dwyer, 1990; Fearnside, 1989, 1990; Gribel,

1990; Hecht and Cockburn, 1990; Moreira, 1987; Sao Paulo Energia, 1988;

Visao, 1985). According to Eletronorte, there are no Amerindian settlements

and little involuntary resettlement. The reservoir is small and practically run-of-

river, and has a high ratio (31.5) of kW/ha of land flooded, which is slightly

better than Brazil’s biggest hydroproject, Tucurui. In addition, it is on the al-

ready dammed Tocantins river, rather than being the first on a hitherto un-

dammed Amazonian river.

_ This presages well for the ranking of the next Amazonian dams potentially

identified by Eletrobras’ Plano 2010 for the next twenty years. The range be-

tween the best and worst hydro sites is so wide that the least cost (after conserva-

tion) power investment program will include a full array of sources, such as gas,

and imported power. Coal and (possibly at some time in the future) even nuclear

(with best technology) may be found by Brazil to be better than the worst

potential hydro site on future ranking on national criteria. A mixed hydro-ther-

mal system implies fewer reservoirs.

Eletronorte has a massive challenge. Recent developments (PROCEL, can-

cellation of Babaquara, criteria of Serra Quebrada) suggest promising improve-

HYDRO-RESERVOIRS IN TROPICAL FORESTS 31

ments. National consensus on the kind of criteria suggested above will ensure

that the trend is strongly positive. The World Bank wants to support this trend to

the fullest extent possible.

Case Example of India

The case of India differs substantially from that of Brazil in the sense that

India has not invested a substantial share of its power sector resources in hydro-

electric plants. The main reasons for this are: first, that India has

148 600 000 000 tons of non-coking coal, and second, that development strate-

gies have relied only to a very small extent on foreign borrowings. Even though

the Indian economy has generally recorded a savings rate of over 20%, resource

mobilization in the power sector remains severely constrained.

_ This has happened for three main reasons. First, power sector demand growth

in recent years has been rather high (9-10% annually), with a growing peak

demand relative to base load demand. Second, the electric utility industry has

accumulated heavy losses on account of suppressed tariffs and operational inef-

ficiencies. Third, high human population growth (1.8% annually) continues to

impose Onerous demands on investments in education, health care, welfare

programs, and infrastructure. The power sector is thus one of many sectors

competing for limited resources.

These factors have resulted in a preference for relatively short gestation ther-

mal power plants rather than hydroelectric capacity. While hydro and thermal

had almost the same share of power generation (45% and 55%, respectively) in

1965-66, the distribution is now 30% hydro to 70% thermal. Fortunately, In-

dian coal is low in sulfur, even though its ash content exceeds 40% in some

power stations. As a result, the main environmental problems of thermal power

stations are particulate emissions and ash disposal. Except in regions like the

Rihand reservoir—now well known for the Singrauli thermal power plants—

acid rain is not now a problem, nor is it likely to become much of one in the

future.

India’s main hydrosites are in the Himalayas, with a large share concentrated

in the North-East. India has a land to population ratio of 0.004 km? per capita

while Brazil’s is 0.070 km? per capita. High population densities, land scarcity

(particularly agricultural), and disappearing forests are three crucial factors in

Indian hydro planning. For example, the major issue in the 1200-MW (US

$1 130 000 000) Sardar Sarovar hydro and irrigation project on the Narmada

river is the involuntary resettlement of people. These 90,000 deportees are not

well equipped to adapt to new habitats, having a historically long intergenera-

tional dependence on the land and its specific biota. In addition, the track record

32 GOODLAND, JURAS, AND PACHAURI

Table 4.—Indian Energy Tariffs

Energy Source Economic Price Market Price

Domestic Cooking (Rs./Mcal)

Kerosene 7.78 305

Electricity 20.43 8.49

Irrigation (Rs./ML of water)

HS Diesel 109.64 142.02

Electricity 107.19 9.03

[Note: Rs. = Indian Rupees; HS Diesel = High Speed Diesel; Mcal = megacalorie; Pachauri 1991 pers.

comm.|

of Indian involuntary resettlement is poor, so that hydroprojects are likely to

run into heavy public resistance (Goodland, 1985, 1989; Pachauri, 1990a,b,c).

Capital constraints in the Indian economy are intensifying. Therefore the

impact on the power sector is likely to become more serious in coming years.

Typically, the power sector has accounted for less than 20% of planned public

sector investments, but the targets for the current (eighth) five-year plan demand

a higher share. Therefore, energy eficiency improvements become more urgent.

Conservation is important here not only at the end-use level, but also in the

energy supply industry itself. For instance, official transmission and distribution

losses have risen to 22%, and are as high as 40% in some states. Similarly, coal

thermal efficiencies are well below state-of-the-art levels, with some plants at-

taining only 20%. There are, therefore, tremendous opportunities for efficiency

improvements in the power industry which would moderate new capacity

growth without sacrificing electricity supply.

Irrationally low energy tariffs, far below long-run marginal costs, are the main

reason for lack of energy conservation. This is particularly true in the power

sector wherein some end-user subsidies are extremely high. (See Table 4.) Efh-

ciency improvements must begin with adjustment of energy tariffs, in order to

provide the consumer with appropriate signals. Improved efficiency may not

significantly reduce available aggregate demand for power to the extent that

overall quantity of power also constrains. Investments in physical capital have

to be matched with investments in human capital, especially in power sector

planning and environmental assessment. Such human capital investments

would have larger returns than almost any other form of investment in the

power sector.

Conclusion

Our conclusion devolves on the likelihood of a country fulfilling most of the

above criteria. These criteria are stringent even for industrial countries. To what

HYDRO-RESERVOIRS IN TROPICAL FORESTS 33

extent will such criteria be fulfilled? We agree with skeptics who rightly claim

not all these criteria will be fully met. But the process of agreeing and approach-

ing the criteria will be salutary. Do sites fulfilling most criteria exist? The least

bad site certainly exists. The decisions will be difficult in some cases, less so in

others. Although difficult, this course 1s better than the alternatives, and much

easier than damping demand until solar/hydrogen energy becomes feasible in

the next decades. Mandatory rationing and other service interruptions are likely

to be exceedingly painful to consumers and to the development of the country.

The damping pain should be thought through and discussed with all interested

parties, as part of the criteria-setting and consensus-building exercise. Proper

pricing makes the choices more obvious. In sum, we need to compare costs and

benefits much more rigorously and comprehensively than has been the case

so far.

‘In our imperfect world, the reality is that not all these criteria will ever be

totally met. Therefore, a national consensus is needed on whether or not conser-

vation, efficiency, environmental precautions, and other alternatives are being

pursued adequately. The national consensus 1s essential in order to agree on the

threshold at which the second best—or least bad—site should be developed.

National agreement on criteria will reveal where the thresholds lie. As soon as

the various environmental impacts can be evaluated, the polarization of society

will be defused. The need is to make uncertainty transparent and positive, rather

than covert and manipulative.

As hydropower is exceptionally capital intensive and capital availability is a

major constraint in nearly all nations, tropically forested or not, it is imperative

to follow the least-cost (as defined above to include social and environmental

costs) sequence of development. Of course, least cost specifically includes saving

kilowatt-hours, not just generating them, based on consumer choice when fac-

ing appropriate prices. We urge the use of proper opportunity cost of capital.

Arguments for simultaneous development of higher cost alternatives should be

rigorously resisted. Power corporations are commendably making the transition

away from sole focus on new capacity and towards conservation and efficiency.

This is difficult for them because new capacity is under their almost total con-

trol, whereas conservation means they have to persuade other sectors outside

their control.

Power corporations wanting to promote sustainability and to reduce national

controversies and delays should follow a vigorous action program with serial

steps along the following lines (Goodland, 1988, 1990a,b,c):

1. Promote fulfillment of agreed-on criteria.

2. Manage demand to the fullest extent justifiable.

3. Promote agreed-on valuation of impacts.

34 GOODLAND, JURAS, AND PACHAURI

4. Seek sites fulfilling nationally-agreed-on criteria.

5. Sequence all sites in a national least-cost power program, under credible scenarios.

6. Rank all potential sites on the basis of these criteria.

7. Only then, develop the least bad new site fulfilling such criteria.

Acknowledgements

In addition to the comments by World Bank colleagues, we want to acknowl-

edge with great pleasure the support of the former president of Eletronorte (now

Secretary of National Energy) Armando Araujo, David Houghton, and Howard

Geller for their most helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper.

References

Adam, J. A. (1988). Extracting power from the Amazon. JEEE Spectrum, 25:34-38.

Adams, W. M. (1990). Green development: Environment and sustainability in the Third World. London:

Routledge.

Anandalingam, G. (1987). The economics of industrial energy conservation in developing countries. In Pa-

chauni, R.K. (Ed.), Global energy interactions (pp. 643-661). Riverdale, MD: Riverdale Press.

Balbina: economia do petroleo na Amazonia. (1986, July 16) Visao, pp. 30-33.

Cadman, J. D. (1989). Energy from the Amazon. Civil Engineering, 59:55-57.

Cadman, J. D. (1991). Exploracao da madeira submersa na UHE Tucurui. Brasilia: Eletronorte, Depto. de

Meio Ambiente.

Chandler, W. U. (1985). Energy productivity: key to environmental protection and economic progress (Paper

63). Washington: Worldwatch Institute.

Comissao Pro-Indio de Sao Paulo (ca. 1989). O que e o aproveitamento hidreletrico de Cachoeira Porteira? Sao

Paulo: CPI. ;

Cummings, B. J. (1991). Dam the rivers, damn the people: Development and resistance in Amazonian Brazil.

London: Earthscan.

Daly, H. E., & Cobb, J. (1989). For the common good: Redirecting the economy towards community, the

environment and a sustainable future. Boston, Beacon Press.

Dwyer, A. (1990). Into the Amazon: The struggle for the rain forest. San Francisco: Sierra Club Books.

Eletrobras. (1986). Manual de estudos de efeitos ambientais dos sistemas eletricos. Rio de Janeiro: Author.

Eletrobras. (1987). Plano nacional de energia eletrica 2010: Relatorio executivo. Rio de Janeiro: Author.

Eletrobras. (1989). Plano decenal 1990-1999. Rio de Janeiro: Author.

Eletrobras. (1990). Plano diretor de meio ambiente do setor eletrico 1990-1992. Rio de Janeiro: Author.

Fearnside, P. M. (1989). Brazil’s Balbina dam: Environment versus the legacy of the Pharaohs in Amazonia.

Environmental Management, 13:401-423.

Fearnside, P. M. (1990). Balbina: licoes tragicas na Amazonia. Ciencia Hoje, 11:34—40.

Fearnside, P. M. (1990). A hidreletrica de Balbina: o faraonismo irreversivel versus 0 meio ambiente na

Amazonia. Sao Paulo: Instituto de Antropologia e Meio Ambiente (IAMA).

Fickett, A. P., Gellings, C. W., & Lovins, A. B. (1990, September). Efficient use of electricity. Scientific

American, pp. 65-74.

Flavin, C. (1984). Electricity’s future: The shift to efficiency and small scale power (Paper 61). Washington:

Worldwatch Institute.

Flavin, C. (1986). Electricity for a developing world (Paper 70). Washington: Worldwatch Institute.

Flavin, C., & Durning, A. B. (1988). Building on success: the age of energy efficiency (Paper 82). Washington:

Worldwatch Institute.

Gadgil, A. J., & Januzzi, G. De M. (1991, June). Conservation potential of compact fluorescent light in India

and Brazil. Energy Policy, pp. 449-463.

Gamba, J., Caplin, D., & Muckhluyse, J. (1986). Industrial rationalization in developing countries. Baltimore:

Johns Hopkins Press.

Geller, H.S. (1986). End-use electricity conservation: Options for developing countries (Energy Dept. Paper 32)

Washington: World Bank.

Geller, H. S. (1988). Electricity conservation in Brazil: potential and progress. Energy, 13:469-483.

Geller, H. S. (1990). Electricity conservation in Brazil. Washington: American Council for an Energy-Efficient

Economy.

HYDRO-RESERVOIRS IN TROPICAL FORESTS 35

Goldemberg, J., & Barbosa, M. N. (Eds.) (1989). Amazonia: Facts, problems and solutions. Sao Paulo:

Universidade de Sao Paulo.

Goldemberg, J. et al. (1987). Energy for development. Washington: World Resources Institute.

Goldemberg, J., Johansson, T. B., Reddy, A. K., & Williams, R. H. (1988). Energy for a sustainable world.

New Delhi: Wiley.

Goldsmith, E., & Hildyard, N. (1985-1991). The social and environmental effects of large dams (Vols. 1-3).

Wadebridge, UK: Ecological Centre.

Goodland, R. (1978). Environmental assessment of the Tucurui hydroproject, Rio Tocantins, Amazonia. Brasi-

lia: Eletronorte.

Goodland, R. (1982). Tribal peoples and economic development: Human ecological considerations. Washing-

ton: The World Bank.

Goodland, R. (1985). Environmental aspects of hydroelectric power and water storage projects. Roorkee U.P.,

UNESCO/UNEP International Conference “Environmental Aspects of Water Projects” III: 1-30.

Goodland, R. (1986, November). Hydro and the environment: evaluating the tradeoffs. Water Power and Dam

Construction, 25-31.

Goodland, R. (1989). Environmental aspects of hydroprojects. Indian J. Public Administration, 35:607-633.

Goodland, R. (1990a). The World Bank’s new environmental policy for hydroprojects. International Environ-

mental Affairs, 2:109-129.

Goodland, R. (1990b). BIRD: exigencias para preservar a vida. Sao Paulo Energia, 7:20-24.

Goodland, R. (1990c). The World Bank’s new environmental policy for dams and reservoirs. Water Resources

Development, 6:226-239.

Goodland, R. (1991). Politica ambiental do BIRD sobre hidreletricas. Sao Paulo, Universidade Paulista (Mes-

quita, M. e Di Genio eds.) (no prelo).

Goodland, R., Daly, H., & El Serafy, S. (Eds.) (1991). Environmentally sustainable economic development:

Building on Brundtland (Environment Department Working Paper 46). Washington: The World Bank.

Goodland, R. & Daly, H. (1991). Environmental sustainability in the World Bank. International Journal of

Sustainable Development, 1:12-23.

Goodland, R. & Daly, H. (1992). Approaching global environmental sustainability. Rome: Society for Interna-

tional Development, 2:35-41; 3:64-71.

Gribel, R. (1990). The Balbina disaster: The need to ask why? The Ecologist, 20:133-135.

Gupta, S., & Pachauri, R. K. (Eds.) (1990). Global warming and climate change: Perspectives from developing

countries. New Delhi: Tata Energy Research Institute.

Guzman, O. (1987). Energy efficiency and conservation in Mexico. Boulder, CO: Westview.

Hagler, Bailly Co. (1987). Financing energy conservation in developing countries. Washington: Author.

Hart, C. (1991, March). A Brazilian tribe escapes extinction. World Development (UNDP), pp. 15-18.

Hecht, S., & Cockburn, A. (1990). The fate of the forest: Developers, destroyers, and defenders of the Amazon.

London: Verso.

Holdren, J. P. (1987). Global environmental issues related to energy supply: the environmental case for

increased efficiency of energy use. Energy, 12:975-992.

Holtz, A. C. T. (1989). Electric generation, resources and current development patterns: The case of the

Amazon. In Amazonia: Facts, Problems, and Solutions: Annals I (pp. 139-172). Sao Paulo: Universidade de

Sao Paulo/INPE.

International Energy Agency. (1987). Energy conservation in IEA countries. Paris: Author.

International Energy Agency. (1989). Electricity end-use efficiency. Paris: Author.

Imran, M., & Barnes, P. (1990). Energy demand in the developing countries: Prospects for the future (Commod-

ity Working Paper 23). Washington: World Bank.

Januzzi, G. de M. (1990). Conservacao de energia, meio amb:ente e desenvolvimento. Ciencia Hoje, 11:16-

DD:

Januzzi, G. de M., Gadgil, A., Geller, H., & Sastry, M. A. (1991). Energy-efficient lighting in Brazil and India:

potential and issues of technology diffusion. Unpublished manuscript.

Johansson, T. B., Bodlund, B., & Williams, R. H. (1989). Electricity: Efficient end-use and new generation

technologies, and their planning implications. Lund: Lund University Press.

Juras, A. A. (1990). Environmental policies as applied to Eletronorte, the Brazilian northern electrical author-

ity’s enterprises in the Amazon region. Brasilia: Eletronorte.

Juras, A. A. (1991). Hydropower plants in the Amazonian region: opportunities for acquiring knowledge,

education and training in the field of environment (Chihuahua, Mexico, International Symposium on Hy-

drology and Water Resource Education and Training). Brasilia: Eletronorte.

Lacerda Neto, Z. F. (1990). Environmental impact assessment in Brazil. Environmental Education and Infor-

mation, &.,.

Lovins, A. B. (1990). Four revolutions in electric efficiency. Contemporary Policy Issues, 8:122-141.

Movimento de Apoio a Resistencia Waimiri-Atroari. (1987). Balbina: catastrofe e destruicao na Amazonia.

Manaus: Author.

36 GOODLAND, JURAS, AND PACHAURI

Margulis, S. (1990). O desempenho do Governo Brasileiro e Banco Mundial com relacao a questao ambiental

em projetos co-financiados pelo Banco. Rio de Janeiro: IPEA.

Moore, E., & Smith, G. (1990). Capital expenditures for electric power in the developing countries in the 1990s

(Industry and Energy Paper 21). Washington: World Bank.

Moreira, J. R. (1989). Electricity in Brazil: conservation and other major problems of developing countries. Sao

Paulo: Univ. Sao Paulo, Inst. Eletrotecnologia e Energia.

Naviglio, A. (1990). Energy for development: energy conservation in developing countries. Applied Energy,

36:143-157.

Noguiera, U. (1991). Can environmental concerns become a constraint on energy development? (Socio-Eco-

nomic Report 1990). Washington: InterAmerican Development Bank.

Ogden, J. M., & Williams, R. H. (1989). Solar hydrogen: moving beyond fossil fuels. Washington: World

Resources Institute.

Pachauri, R. K. (1990a). Emissions of greenhouse gases in developing countries: abatement strategies and

perspectives (PRE Energy Dept., working paper). Washington: World Bank.

Pachauri, R. K. (1990b). Energy efficiency and conservation in India. Industry and Environment, 13:9-24.

Pachauri, R. K. (1990c). Energy efficiency in developing countries: Policy options and the poverty dilemma.

Natural Resources Forum, 14:319-325.

Paiva, M. P. (1977). The environmental impact of man-made lakes in the Amazon region of Brazil. Rio de

Janeiro: Eletrobras, Diretoria de Coordenacao.

Paiva, M. P. (1982). As grandes represas do Brasil. Brasilia: Editerra.

Philips, M. (1991). The least-cost energy path for developing countries: Energy efficient investments for the

Multilateral Development Banks. Washington: International Institute for Energy Conservation.

PROCEL. (1990). Realizacoes e metas de conservacao de energia. Rio de Janeiro: Eletrobras, Programa

Nacional de Conservacao de Energia Eletrica.

Rosa, L. P. (1989). Hidreletricas e meio ambiente na Amazonia: analise critica do Plano 2010. Rev. Bras.

Energia, 1:7-24.

Rosa, L. P., Sigaud, L., & Mielnik, O. (Eds.) (1988). Impactos de grandes projetos hidreletricos e nucleares.

Sao Paulo: Marco Zero.

Santos, L. A. O., & de Andrade, L. M. M. (1988). As hidreletricas (do Rio Xingu) e os povos indigenas. Sao

Paulo: Comissao Pro-Indio de Sao Paulo.

Serra, M. T. F. (in press). Resettlement planning in the Brazilian power sector: Recent changes in ap-

proach.(ms.34+p.) In Cernea, M., & Guggenheim, S. (Eds.), Anthropological approaches to involuntary

resettlement: Policy, practice and theory. Boulder, CO: Westview.

Sao Paulo Energia. (1988). Balbina: obra discutivel mas agora irreversivel. Sao Paulo Energia, 5:33-36.

Scaramucci, J. A., Januzzi, G. de M., & de Castro, S. A. (1990). Environmental constraints on economic

growth: A global analysis of two interacting regions, Brazil and OECD. Campinas: S.P. Unicamp.

Shepard, M. (1991). How to improve energy efficiency. Jssues, 7:85-91.

Van Domelen, J. (1988). Power to spare: The World Bank and electricity conservation. Washington: World

Wildlife Fund.

Williams, P. B. (1991, August). The debate over large dams. Civil Engineering, pp. 42-48.

World Bank. (1989). The future role of hydropower in developing countries (Industry & Energy Paper 15).

Washington DC: Author.

World Bank. (1989). Energy efficiency strategy for developing countnes. Washington DC: Author.

Zatz, J. (1990). Programmes de maitrise de l’energie au Bresil. UNEP Industry and Environment, 13:12-16.

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences,

Volume 82, Number |, Pages 37-51, March 1992

Ten Reasons Why Northern Income

Growth is Not the Solution

to Southern Poverty

Robert Goodland and Herman Daly!

Environment Department, The World Bank, Washington DC 20433 USA

“Those who make $200 a year should not pay so that those who make $10,000

a year can breathe clean air.. . . We are all in the same planetary boat. A few

of us travel first class, while most are in steerage. But if the boat sinks we all

drown together.”

Ambassador Edward Kufuor, Chairman, Group of 77,

at the UN Assembly, 1991.

ABSTRACT

Decreasing Southern poverty is arguably today’s main goal of economic development.

The two main views on how this can be achieved are not fully compatible. The traditional

view, is that rich Northern high-consumption societies should consume yet more in order to

help the South by providing larger markets. This paper outlines the alternative view: that the

North should stabilize its resource consumption, and reduce its damage to global life-sup-

port systems. Any higher consumption must come from productivity improvements, rather

from increased throughput growth. If natural resources were infinite, then growth would be

unreservedly good. Since resources are finite, then more Northern growth inevitably means

less room for Southern growth. Productivity improvements must replace throughput growth

as the path of progress for the North, and eventually for the South as well.

Divergent Views on How to Reduce Southern Poverty

Decreasing Southern poverty 1s arguably today’s main goal of economic devel-

opment. The two predominant views on how this can be achieved are not fully

compatible. The traditional view, held by most economists and development

agencies, is not working well. The traditional view is that rich Northern high-

' Respectively Adviser and Senior Economist. Fax: 202/477-0565

38 GOODLAND AND DALY

consumption societies should consume yet more in order to help the South by

providing larger markets.

For example, the Bretton Woods Institutions were in part created because of

macroeconomic market failure, both to maintain full employment and to bridge

the income gap between rich and poor, and to intermediate between rich coun-

tries and poor. Their leadership role, apart from lending,” is as purveyors of

ideas, as well as of capital, setting the development agenda. Regarding capital,

the volume of concessionary lending declines relative to hard loans, while pov-

erty increases.’ Net transfers from South to North* show that the current system

is not working as well as it should.° Regarding ideas, there is profound confu-

sion, which development agencies could help greatly to clarify. Development

agencies are not primarily responsible for this situation, but they did not use as

much of their considerable potential influence to change the conditions that

contributed.

Net transfers from South to North persist because of mature high-interest debt

servicing, in spite of higher real interest rates in developing countries (averaging

17% during the 1980’s) (Human Development Report of the UN (HDR), 1992),

compared with the 4% rates in OECD countries. To avoid negative transfers,

more loans are needed just to cover debt service, thereby increasing total debt.

The projects the debt supported were not as productive as expected; therefore,

growth in debtor countries in the aggregate was less than expected. Conse-

quently this repayment transfer is not made from a larger income made possible

by the productivity of the projects financed by the debt. Of course, not all

projects were disappointing, but on average, development prescriptions have

not worked as well as calculated. This suggests that traditional prescriptions of

how the North should help the South merit overhaul.

The alternative view is that the North should stabilize 1ts resource consump-

* One need is to calculate what fraction of the $55 000 000 000 total annual ODA supports sustainable

investments and to increase this expectedly small fraction (disaggregating the large armaments fraction).

Similarly for the possibly $100 000 000 000 per year from philanthropic grants. El Serafy’s sustainability

method (1991) and environmental accounting (Ahmad, El Serafy, & Lutz 1989) should be widely used to

unmask liquidation of natural capital assets.

> The 1990 World Development Report “Poverty” calculated that more than one billion people, about

one-third of the total population in the developing countries, live below the poverty line, and that poverty is

also increasing in relative terms (World Bank, 1990).

* For example, 1989’s South to North financial flows largely debt servicing and loan repayment approxi-

mated $50 000 000 000, or $150 000 000 000 by lost trade, excluding brain drain costs.

> The reasons why forty years of North-to-South capital transfers have not been as successful as planned are:

a) improper allocation of capital, including government expenditures; b) flawed governmental policies that

promoted misallocation, inefficient industries, and urban affluent elites at the expense of the rural sector; c)

large and corrupt bureacracy and military; d) neglect of peasant agriculture; e) social systems that doom

three-fourths of the population, especially women, to an unproductive and stagnating existence, especially

failure to disseminate effective family planning. We are grateful to Professor Raymond Mikesell for this

clarification.

NORTHERN INCOME - SOUTHERN POVERTY 39

tion and reduce its damage to global life-support systems. Any higher consump-

tion must come from productivity improvements, rather from increased

throughput growth, a quantitative increase in size by the accretive of materials.

If natural resources® were infinite, then growth would be unreservedly good.

Since resources are finite, then more Northern growth inevitably means less

room for Southern growth.’ Productivity improvements must replace through-

put growth as the path of progress for the North, and eventually for the South

as well.

The purpose of this somewhat polemical paper is to contrast the two views,

and to argue the case for more attention to the alternative view. The case merits

a monograph, rather than a dozen pages. In being brief, we have not been able to

deepen all the arguments. Our aim Is to raise the alternative view higher on the

agenda so that monographs by others will be commissioned, and that the con-

troversy over current doctrines and confusions is reconciled.

Traditional View

The North must grow faster to buy ever more resources from the South;

otherwise the South will stagnate. Northern income growth translates into more

Northern consumerism. Northern foreign exchange paying for imports from the

South will indirectly trickle down from the Southern elites to alleviate poverty.® |

UNDP’s 1992 Human Development Report outlines the historic discrediting of

the trickle-down theory. The South is supposed to be almost totally dependent

on the North and incapable of transforming its own resources into necessities for

its own people. It must export natural resources, whose world market prices

have, in general, steadily declined over the last few decades. The increased flow

of natural resources supports Northern consumerism. These exports are for

foreign exchange used partly to import the latest consumer goods for its own

elites, who are not content with locally produced basic wage goods. If the econ-

omy were unbounded by a finite ecosystem then this strategy would be possible

and could be defended at least as the lesser evil. Although “‘trickle down” may

not be thought the best means of achieving development, this view is widely

held, and is espoused by development agencies and orthodox economists.

® Resources include the environment as a source of raw materials, healthy air etc., and as a sink for wastes,

such as carbon dioxide.

7 For a discussion of environmental finitude and of sustainability in general, see Daly and Cobb (1989), Daly

(1991), Goodland, Daly and El Serafy (1991), and Goodland and Daly (1992). The two views are contrasted

best by Korten (1991), most pithily by Brooks (1991). For the most recent support for the alternative view, see

Krabbe and Heijman (1992). Adams (1991) and George (1990) highlight the weaknesses of international

development.

® For example, according to World Bank Vice President and Chief Economist Lawrence Summers (1991)

‘. . . rising tides do raise all boats.”” Rising Northern tides, however, imply ebbing Southern tides.

40 GOODLAND AND DALY

Alternative View

The North should stabilize its rate of consumption of resources to free them

for the South, and to free up ecological space as well. The North has to reduce its

overuse of global commons. Environmental sink capacity, and to a lesser extent

environmental source capacity’ (Meadows et al., 1974), has been preempted by

the North, thus denying as much room for the South. The North can continue to

develop, but must cease increasing throughput growth. If the expanding global

economy is bounded by a finite inexpandible ecosystem (Figure 1), then this

view becomes the realistic one, and the traditional view becomes impossible.

Foreign exchange generated by economic development, both from loans and

exports, serves the desires of the rich more than the needs of the poor. Develop-

ing countries should be more capable of producing necessities for their own

people than of producing luxuries for their rich. The foreign exchange is needed

more for the latter than the former. This minority alternative view is held by

Economics Nobelists Jan Tinbergen and Trygve Haavelmo, along with many, if

not most, of the members of the International Society for Ecological Economics.

Tinbergen and Hueting (1991) hold that “. . . continuing (with the) prevailing

growth path is blocking (global) chances for survival... .” Hueting (1990)

says, ““. . . What the world needs /east is an increase in national income,” and

‘“*. . . the highest priority is to (halt) any further production growth in rich

countries. . .”

Haavelmo and Hansen (1991) characterize the two views: “Policies for more

equality invariably start off with the statement that the standard of the poor

should be raised towards the level of the rich. In other words, lifting the bottom

rather than lowering the top.” The alternative view suggests adding “lowering or

at least transforming the top’, ie: reducing Northern throughput growth and

decreasing Northern consumerism. Under current dependency arrangements, a

sharp Northern recession would hurt the South while benefiting the global envi-

ronment. We advocate loosening such dependency to help prevent damage to

the South.'°

Discussion

The traditional view and the alternative view cannot both be nght. The alter-

native view leads us to emphasize the following overlapping elements, which

? Environmental limits to growth can be separated into source limits, such as depletion of petroleum,

copper, etc., and sink limits, such as greenhouse effect, ozone shield damage, pollution, etc.

'0 We could add a more palatable modification of the second view, an attack on today’s main environmental

threat, namely pollution, by means of effluent charges, standards, etc. This would then be digested efficiently

by the market and one indirect result would likely be a reduction in GDP and throughput. However, this falls

into the obscurity of Brundtlandism: that the world needs a “5- to 10-fold increase in growth, but of a different

kind.” While we would support such a frontal attack, we prefer to be crystal clear and opt for a transition away

from throughput growth and towards a stable or declining throughput per unit of final product, and for a stable

or declining population.

NORTHERN INCOME - SOUTHERN POVERTY 41

Subsystem

Population

and Goods

Produced

} Finite global ecosystem

Population

and Goods

Produced

RECYCLED

Fig. 1. The finite global ecosystem relative to the growing economic subsystem. The upper figure suggests the

idyllic and long vanished era in which the economic subsystem was small relative to the then largely empty

global ecosystem. The lower figure reflects today’s situation in which the economic subsystem is large relative

to the global ecosystem. It is now basically full and is being stressed by the scale of the economic subsystem.

42 GOODLAND AND DALY

together constitute our “‘ten reasons” why Northern growth is not the answer to

Southern poverty.

1. GNP: A Flawed Measure of Human Well-Being

GNP as conventionally measured can be a misleading guide in two ways.

First, GNP has little to do with human welfare, as well demonstrated by

UNDP’s 1992 Human Development Report. Second, economic sectors contrib-

uting most to GNP are those that are the most environmentally damaging (see

below). Although GNP-maximization is unreliable for both prudent economic

development, as well as for prudent environmental management, economic

development takes GNP-maximization seriously as a general goal or yardstick.

This should not condemn economic activity properly directed to pollution

abatement, conservation, and reducing waste.

Recent work on environmental accounting by the Bank (Ahmad et al., 1989),

Hueting (1990, 1992) and others shows that environmentally benign activities

usually contribute a much smaller part to national income than do environmen-

tally malign ones. On one hand, conventionally measured environmental dam-

age and its rectification are “good” for GNP-boosting growth: for example, the

Valdez oil spill clean-up boosted GNP. On the other hand, environmentally

benign activities tend to be less costly than environmentally malign growth,

consequently contribute less to GNP.'' For example, walking, biking and mass

transit contribute less to GNP than does automobile use; train contributes less

than airplane; an extra blanket or sweater less than raising the thermostat; one-

child families less than six-child families; eating legumes less than eating beef;

recycling less than trashing. Reduction of GNP resulting from choice of these

benign activities should be encouraged, not resisted.

Therefore, environmental protection is not, as commonly portrayed, an ex-

pensive choice, largely to be chosen when a nation becomes rich enough to

afford such choices. The opposite is true. At the same time, rectifying environ-

mentally harmful growth is indeed staggeringly expensive: for example, nuclear

and toxic cleanups or greenhouse effect reversal. This strengthens the argument

for prevention rather than cure, and for not repeating the errors of the industrial

countries which passed through an environmentally damaging phase of eco-

nomic development.

The contrast between Northern and Southern environments is that much

local Northern environmental damage is pollution, hence reversible. For exam-

ple, London’s River Thames pollution and the “‘pea-soup”’ smogs of the 1950s

'! For evidence and arguments supporting this important conclusion, see Hueting et al. (1992), appendix 3.

NORTHERN INCOME - SOUTHERN POVERTY 43

have been largely reversed. On the other hand, most Southern environmental

damage is irreversible loss of biodiversity.'* Irreversible damage cannot be

cured; replacement costs are infinite. The North’s unnecessarily expensive

“damage the environment, then cure it” approach may be affordable (but im-

prudent) for the rich North. But cures cannot work for irreversible damage, and

the South could not afford such expensive approaches in any event. The preven-

tive approach is the only possible one for the South.

2. Importance of Relative Incomes

The traditional view emphasizing global income growth will exacerbate in-

equality while scarcely denting poverty. An annual 3% increase in global per

capita income translates initially into annual per capita increments of $633 for

the US, but only $10 or less for China, India, Bangladesh, or Nigeria. After a

~ decade, the US income will have risen by $7257, whereas such income growth

will have raised Ethiopia’s income by only $41. Therefore, advocates of the

traditional view, prioritizing global income growth, should at least state that an

unwanted side effect will be to worsen income disparity. When dealing with

market competition for finite resources, relative income is more influential than

absolute income in determining whether some individuals are excluded from

access to available resources. Since markets need at least some social equity, the

traditional view will gradually exclude the poor from domestic and international

market economies. We emphasize equity within countries as well as between

countries.

3. Differential Utility of Needs and Wants

For Northern consumers, self-evaluated happiness is more a function of rela-

tive income than of absolute income. Therefore, since aggregate growth in-

creases absolute but not relative income, it contributes little to actual happiness

in the North (Hirsch,- 1976). So, although our main concern is alleviation of

absolute poverty, we recognize that above the poverty level, relative income is a

more important determinant of satisfaction than absolute income. Now that

Northern income growth yields sharply declining marginal utility, the North

should question whether raising its incomes will not increase environmental

costs faster than it increases production benefits. Raising Northern incomes not

'? This generalization stems from the orders-of-magnitude-richer biodiversity in tropical countries and by

the related lack of tropical winters. The four main tropical environmental impacts—deracination of jungle

dwellers, deforestation, extinctions, and topsoil loss—are irreversible. Water and air pollution in the North are

basically reversible. Pervasive global negative externalities (e. g., carbon dioxide accumulation) are probably

irreversible over most time frames. The operational distinction between reversible and irreversible damage is

that cure for the former is possible for the rich; prevention is the only choice for irreversibles.

44 GOODLAND AND DALY

only widens the gap between North and South, but may well be reducing North-

ern welfare absolutely. In the North’s choice between consumerism and saving,

the quest for relative standing based on visible commodities has biased the

North towards consumerism. With less consumerism, more saving in the North

could be invested in much needed poverty alleviation and growth in the South.

Production to meet basic human needs produces relatively high utilities, fre-

quently with relatively low environmental costs. Wants or luxuries generate

relatively lower utility, often with with higher environmental costs.

4. Misplaced Technological Optimism

New technology is often adopted in order to improve productivity, which in

turn can raise material standards of living. The impact of a particular technology

depends on the nature of the technology, the size of the population deploying it,

and the population’s level of affluence. In the I = PAT identity, impact equals

population times affluence times technology.'* Accept here as given that world

population is projected to double in 40 years and that the rich countries’ per

capita income ($18,330) is 23 times that of the poor and middle income coun-

tries ($800).'* Therefore, to raise Southern affluence to today’s level of the North

(holding both impact and Northern incomes constant) means technology must

improve 2 X 23 or 46 times. Since historical technological improvement rates

never have exceeded a fraction of the needed 46 times, it will be exceedingly

difficult for poor countries to catch up with rich countries in 40 years even if the

North maintains current levels of income. It will be that much more difficult

if the South is to catch up with a moving target, as prescribed by the tradi-

tional view.

Furthermore, this 46-fold increase must be in resource efficiency, and not just

in capital or labor efficiency. Historically, much of the increase in capital and

labor efficiency has been at the expense of resource efficiency. In agriculture, for

example, the increase in labor and capital productivity has required an enor-

mous increase in the complementary resource throughputs (energy, fertilizer,

biocides, water) whose productivity has fallen.

5. The Value of Economic Self-Reliance

The poor can be helped far more, and with much less environmental damage,

by a pattern of development which promotes employment in developing coun-

'3 Impact here means impact on or damage to environmental sources or sinks; affluence means per capita

consumption of resources; technology refers to technological efficiency defined in terms of the number of units

of human well-being produced per unit of environmental cost. Thus, where I is impact, P is population, and Y

is total production, then I = P x Y/P X I/Y.

'* Data from The World Bank’s World Development Report 1991, Table A.2.

NORTHERN INCOME - SOUTHERN POVERTY 45

tries—as recently advocated by the World Bank’s 1990 “Poverty” WDR, rather

than by increasing Northern consumption and relying on “trickle down,” as

advocated by the traditional view. Poverty alleviation needs employment and

self-reliance strategies aimed at using local resources to produce for domestic

needs. This translates partly into promotion of value-added and domestic pro-

cessing, and partly into employment creation. True, developing countries may

at first waste a large fraction of raw materials during processing because of using

obsolescent technology commonly transferred to the South. For example, mod-

ern sawmills waste considerably less wood than obsolescent sawmills do. But

this argues for accelerating transfer of up-to-date technologies, rather than the

old colonialist approach of exporting raw materials to be more efficiently milled

in the North. The most needed such technologies are renewable energy genera-

tion and contraceptive methods. Waste prevention, recycling methods, pollu-

‘tion prevention, efficiency increases (e. g., of sawmills), low-input, organic and

recycling agriculture, and methods reducing material- and energy-intensity in

manufacturing also are priorities. Duchin (1992) argues for supplementing tech-

nology transfer by the practice of industrial ecology: life-cycle engineering for

reducing pollution.

6. Throughput Growth as a Source of Both Income Growth

and of Environmental Damage

If the activities contributing to national income are disaggregated into two

components, environmentally friendly (e. g., most government services), and

environmentally burdening (e.g., industry, agriculture, utilities), then about one

quarter of the activities (measured in labor volume) generate about 65% of

increases in national income. “Unfortunately, that 25% is precisely the activities

which impair the environment.” (Hueting et al., 1992) Increases in productivity

generated by a relatively small part of the economy spread over the whole

society via labor supply demand linkages. For example, a barber’s labor volume

and real output have not appreciably increased over the last 40 or 100 years, but

his (deflated) income or value added has risen by a factor of four. The barber’s

increased real income has been generated by activities other than his own. These

other activities are much harder on the environment than his own activities.

Average Northerners now consume vastly more than they did 40 years ago all

the way up the income scale—more than twice as much in the case of the US and

Japan. For example, 88% of US households now own at least one car (up from

55% in 1935), and the average number of vehicles per household is two—even

for barbers.

7. Subsidized Resource Pricing

The poor can be supported more directly and with less environmental damage

by “getting the price right,” or at least getting the price better than at present.

46 GOODLAND AND DALY

Today’s severe undervaluation of Southern raw material exports means the

South is subsidizing the North, in the sense of both externalized environmental

costs, as well as governmental incentives, such as logging road construction.

Cheap tropical log exports are a case in point. Stupendous subsidies, in the form

of unpaid environmental costs, are only beginning to be recognized. Eastern

Europe’s pollution is a case in point. In the absence of Southern cartels or of

producers’ agreements to limit production, unilateral price changes are unlikely.

We therefore advocate that international organizations, such as the World

Bank, the IMF, or the UN, should foster and promote more economically

realistic full-cost pricing. A caveat: the North advocates removal of subsidies,

but this may hurt the poor more than the rich because in developing countries,

the rate of removal of subsidies to the poor exceeds the rate of removal of

subsidies to the rich.

Full-cost pricing should also be used to encourage the South to exploit its

comparative advantage in agriculture, labor-intensive industry, and raw mate-

rial processing in order to increase its employment, modernize its subsistence

sector, and raise its per capita incomes.

8. Inequitable Trading Systems

“The structure of trade . . . is a curse from the perspective of sustainable

development.” (Haavelmo and Hansen, 1991) The writers conclude:

. . . Much Northern growth is based on depleting Southern resources for a

price far below the cost of sustainable exploitation. The adoption by the North

of the “full cost” principle for pricing Southern resources would help the

South more than would Northern growth. Exports only serve a purpose if they

finance useful imports. The North should not (tell) the South to export what it

cannot afford. Strategies to enhance exports of many staple agricultural prod-

ucts should be critically revisited. Such goods face low demand elasticities in

world markets. Individually each exporter takes the world market price as

given. In the aggregate, however, the simultaneous implementation of such

strategies by many drives the price down dramatically as they all reach their

production targets. In the end the export revenue might fall short of paying for

the imported machinery, implements, pesticides etc., required (to produce)

for export.

9. Dysfunctions of Imbalanced Trade

The traditional view tends to overestimate the virtues of free trade—that is,

deregulated commerce across national boundaries. Financial imbalances from

deregulated trade have led to debts that are unrepayable, and attempts to repay

them by rapid export of raw materials can be environmentally destructive.

Natural resource stocks are liquidated to meet debt servicing flows. Current

efforts under GATT to include services under free trade will subject that sector

NORTHERN INCOME - SOUTHERN POVERTY 47

to international competition further pressuring existing payment imbalances.

There is a conflict between the “free trade prescription” and the “get the price

right” prescription. Countries following World Bank advice to internalize exter-

nal environmental costs should not be expected to engage in free trade with

countries that do not follow similar rules of cost internalization. Tariffs to pro-

tect an efficient national policy of cost internalization (not an inefficient in-

dustry) should not be ruled out as unwarranted “protectionism.” Unpaid envi-

ronmental costs, such as liquidation of natural capital, are subsidies reducing

the price of exports—tantamount to dumping. User costs, from this point of

view, should internalize depletion of natural capital. Rectification of the asym-

metry of anti-dumping laws for manufacturers, but not for raw materials, would

promote global sustainability. This refers to US Pacific Northwest logs exported

to Japan as well as Malaysian rainforest hardwoods exported to Europe. At the

same time, we acknowledge that Southern trade policies have limited intra-

South trade in goods and services, which need to be expanded, and have contrib-

uted to real transfers from the rural to urban sectors.

10. The Insecurity of Inequality

From the ecological-economic point of view, our main concerns are that the

prescription of raising Northern income will fail to alleviate poverty, will worsen

inequality, and will reverse current trends towards sustainability. To these eco-

logic-economic aspects we append a final concern, that of global security. We

believe raising northern incomes will decrease global security, and in HE (His

Excellency) Minister Salim’s Indonesian view tend to foment social stress and

even revolution. Specifically, decreasing sustainability will increase “‘environ-

mental refugees’—those people forced out of their homes and countries by

environmental mismanagement, man-made disasters, and development-in-

duced expulsions, including poisoned water or air, eroded soils, and desertifica-

tion. A specific example is the environmental damage from Papua New

’ Guinea’s Panguna copper mine, which was a major cause of the recent civil war

in that country.

The North bears an overwhelming responsibility for many environmental

costs to both sinks and sources. As stated in the 1991 Beijing Declaration, the

South has taken note that the North is responsible for practically all historical

global pollution and continues to emit most of today’s global pollution. Some

Southern writers (Agarwal and Narain, 1991) argue that the North owes repara-

tion payments to the South for historically disproportionate pre-emption of the

global commons. Reparations are to restore base-line equilibria. Northern secu-

rity will be enhanced to the extent the North reduces inequality in the South.

North-South environmental linkages are growing. Two examples: While East-

48 GOODLAND AND DALY

ern Europe pollutes Scandinavian air, Scandinavia finds it more cost effective to

improve its air quality by financing pollution abatement in Eastern Europe itself

rather than in Scandinavia. Similarly, the Netherlands finds it more efficient to

sequester Amsterdam-produced carbon dioxide from its coal-fired thermal elec-

tricity plants by financing tree plantations in South America. South America

gets much employment created and more wood construction materials; the

Netherlands buys time to internalize its own wastes within its own borders.

The North should see it as in its own direct security interest to invest in the

South to reduce inequality, to alleviate Southern poverty, to protect and im-

prove the global environment, and to avoid creating environmental refugees.

The South can raise funds by taking on board some of the North’s environmen-

tal concerns (such as carbon-sequestering in which the tropics have a major

additional advantage) by means of tradeable quotas, and by selling the benefits

gained from use of their environmental assets, such as intact tropical forest. The

traditional view wants to appropriate more Southern resources for the North.

The alternate view 1s that the North has to learn to live within its own means, to

reduce its current reliance on global commons and on the environmental re-

sources of the South.

Conclusion

A corollary of the above argument is that possibly the best way in which the

North could help the South is by adopting the first oath of Hippocrates: “‘First,

cease doing harm.” The traditional view exacerbates harm; the alternative view

is more likely to help. In the global approach to sustainability, the North has to

adapt far more than the South. The South’s contribution to global sustainability

could be population stability and prevention of irreversible losses. The North’s

contribution to environmental damage in the South is clear: ozone shield dam-

age, climate change, greenhouse warming, tropical deforestation, export planta-

tions forcing the poor to marginal lands, indebtedness promoting drawdown of

natural capital, and overuse of potentially renewable resources.

Recommendations

The ways in which the North can help the South, in priority order, are as

follows: |

First, the North must get its own house in order by transforming today’s

Northern consumerism and borrowing economy into a more sustainable model.

An accelerated transition to renewable energy for a stable population is the

major element. Internalizing environmental costs in energy prices would be a

powerful start. This transition has to be faster than what would be suggested by

the market at present. OECD countries are unilaterally phasing in carbon-based

NORTHERN INCOME - SOUTHERN POVERTY 49

or non-renewable energy taxes. The implications of such taxes for Southern

development should be discussed. Part of Northern energy taxes could be allo-

cated to promote Southern sustainable development. Such national taxes may

later become global, as proposed by UNCED in 1991, or become tradeable

pollution permits (perhaps with futures and options), as proposed by UNCTAD

in 1992. Such arrangements would help protect global life-support systems.

Second, the North should internalize the costs of disposal of its toxic and

other wastes within its own national borders, rather than exporting them in the

name of “comparative advantage” to low wage countries. Internalization of

costs to the nation of origin, as well as the firm, gives a stronger incentive to

minimize toxic waste generation. This dynamic benefit is more important than

the static allocation cost of neglecting ““comparative advantage.”

Third, the North should halt the harm to the South inflicted by present poli-

-cies. This includes underpricing of Southern exports, warfare, and global pollu-

tion. Of course, the South has a bigger role to play in solving its own problems (as

outlined in footnote 5).

Fourth, Northern governments, the private sector, and development agencies

create much Southern debt, much of which is unrepayable. The North should

address the current imbalance between commercial rate loans, subsidized in-

vestments, and grants to the South. The relative proportions of Northern

transfers—as (1) loans, (2) subsidized, almost concessionary, IDA-type arrange-

ments, or (3) grants such as that of free access by the South to the North’s socially

and ecologically beneficial technologies—should be improved. What are the

proportions now? More grants and subsidized loans relative to hard loans. Re-

parations are mentioned above. Questionable loans—loans accelerating liqui-

dation of natural capital, loans failing to internalize full costs, unrepayable

loans, and loans clearly for unsustainable purposes—should be halted or can-

celled. Global sustainability, poverty, equity, and security would be improved if

debts in severely indebted countries were conditionally written off commensu-

rate with progress towards environmental sustainability.

Fifth, because economic justification for foreign exchange loans for environ-

mental investments is difficult, the conventional cost-benefit analysis needs to

be broadened to internalize more environmental costs. Where international

assistance is required for the South’s global or transnational environmental

priorities, it should be grant funded. Recent World Bank improvements in this

respect are encouraging and need to be accelerated. Economists should begin to

consider environmental investments as extended infrastructure investments—

in other words, investments in the maintenance of the biophysical infrastructure

that supports all economic activity, both public and private. Therefore, where

conventional cost-benefit analysis is difficult to apply, as in some conventional

50 GOODLAND AND DALY

infrastructure investments, the Bank, UNDP and UNEP can now make envi-

ronmental grants through the pilot Global Environmental Facility. This impor-

tant facility urgently needs to be revised and vastly expanded if it is to help the

South to approach sustainability.

Sixth, the North should focus on direct help to the South rather than on

indirect “trickle down” help. Investments should focus more directly on the

poor countries, and on the poor strata of society in those countries. Less ODA

(Official Development Assistance) should be on commercial (tied) terms, and

should include only the most essential projects, emphasizing domestic needs

more than the export market. Suggestions to finance such investments have

included reparations, conditioned debt relief (e. g., Brady Plan, Trinidad

Terms), subsidized loans, and especially grants. The investments are to acceler-

ate needed growth and employment-creation in small Southern economies.

International assistance is needed to facilitate and possibly to help purchase

rights to environmentally beneficial technology for the South. This will include

improving the policy framework for commercial transfer of technology, and

training and institution strengthening to improve absorptive capacities.

As old Northern assets depreciate, some may better be replaced in the South

with appropriate technology. Thus, the North should accelerate export of ad-

vanced but appropriate technology for Southern processing of their raw mate-

rials. If the North finds cleaner technology easier to espouse than reducing

population or overconsumption, then the North ought to be more willing to

transfer technology on easier terms, even at the expense of other ODA. The

traditional view would argue for more Northern growth in order to increase

ODA. GATT needs to start addressing the environmental implications of trade

and needs to take on board the concept of sustainable development.

Seventh, the priorities for sustainable economic development in the South

are:

a) Accelerate the transition to population stability.

b) Accelerate the transition to renewable energy.

c) Human capital formation: education and training, employment creation,

particularly for women.

d) Technological transfer to leapfrog the North’s environmentally damaging

stage of economic evolution; job creation rather than automation.

e) Direct poverty alleviation, including social safety nets and targeted aid.

Former World Bank President R. S. McNamara concluded his 1991 United

Nations address by calling for official discussion of “. . . how the developed

world, consuming seven times as much per capita as do the citizens of the

developing countries, may both adjust . . . consumption patterns and reduce

the environmental impact of each unit of consumption, so as to help assure a

NORTHERN INCOME - SOUTHERN POVERTY 51

sustainable path of development for all the inhabitants of our planet. It will be

neither morally defensible nor politically acceptable to do less.”

Acknowledgments

We acknowledge with pleasure the help of our World Bank colleagues, espe-

cially Salah El Serafy, as well as that of Johan Holmberg, Roefie Hueting, David

Korten and Raymond Mikesell.

References

Adams, P. (1991). Odious debts. London: Earthscan.

Agarwal, A., & Narain, S. (1991). Global warming in an unequal world. /nternational Journal of Sustainable

Development, 1:98-104.

Ahmad, Y., El Serafy, S., & Lutz, E. (Eds.) (1989). Environmental accounting. Washington: The World Bank.

Brooks, D. (1991). An evaluation of “Our Common Future.” Human Economy Newsletter, 12:4.

Daly, H. E. (1991). Ecological economics and sustainable development: From concept to policy. (Environment

Department Paper 1991-24.) Washington: The World Bank.

Daly, H. E., & Cobb, J. (1989). For the common good: Redirecting the economy towards community, the

environment, and a sustainable future. Boston: Beacon Press.

Duchin, F. (in press). Prospects for environmentally sound economic development in the North, in the South,

and in North-South economic relations: The role for action-oriented analysis. Journal of Clean Technology

and Environmental Sciences.

EI Serafy, S. (1991). The environment as capital. In Costanza, R. (Ed.), Ecological economics (pp. 168-175).

New York: Cambridge University Press.

George, S. (1990). A fate worse than debt. New York: Weidenfeld.

Goodland, R., & Daly, H. E. (1992). Approaching global environmental sustainability. Society of International

Development, 2:35-41; 3:64-71.

Goodland, R., Daly, H.E., & El Serafy, S. (1991). Environmentally sustainable economic development: Buila-

ing on Brundtland (Environment Paper 36). Washington: The World Bank.

Haavelmo, T., & Hansen, S. (1991). On the strategy of trying to reduce economic inequality by expanding the

scale of human activity. (27-35) In Goodland, R., Daly, H., and El Serafy, S. (Eds.), Environmentally

sustainable economic development: Building on Brundtland (Environment Paper 36). Washington: The

World Bank.

Hirsch, F. (1976). The social limits to growth. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Hueting, R. (1990). The Brundtland report: A matter of conflicting goals. Ecological Economics, 2:109-117.

Hueting, R., Bosch, P., & de Boer, B. (1992). Methodology for the calculation of sustainable national income

(Statistical Essays, M series). Den Haag: Central Bureau of Statistics.

Korten, D. C. (1991). Sustainable development. World Policy Journal, (Winter 1991-1992):156-190.

Krabbe, J. J., & Heijman, W. J. M. (Eds.) (1992). National income and nature: Externalities, growth and

steady state. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic.

McNamara, R. S. (1991). Global population policy to advance human development in the 21st century. New

York: United Nations.

Meadows, D. H., & Club of Rome. (1974). The limits to growth. New York: Universe.

Ministerial Conference of Developing Countries on Environment and Development. (1991). Beijing ministerial

declaration on environment and development. Beijing: Author.

Summers, L. (1991). Research challenges for development economists. Finance and Development, 28:2-S.

Tinbergen, J., & Hueting, R. (1991). GNP and market prices: Wrong signals for sustainable economic success

that mask environmental destruction. In Goodland, R., Daly, H., & El Serafy, S. (Eds.), Environmentally

sustainable economic development: Building on Brundtland (pp. 36-42) (Environment Paper 36). Washing-

ton: The World Bank.

UNDP. (in press). Human development report. New York: UNDP.

World Bank. (1990). World development report: ““Poverty.”’ Washington: World Bank.

Instructions to Contributors

Revised March 1993

Supersedes all earlier versions

Objectives of the Journal

The purpose of the Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences is to publish the results

of original research, critical reviews, and historical articles that contribute significantly to

knowledge in all areas of science and engineering. Articles should be intelligible to readers in

a variety of disciplines. /

Submission of Manuscripts

Manuscripts should be addressed to Editors, Journal of the Washington Academy of

Sciences, Department of Mathematics & Science, Mount Vernon College, 2100 Foxhall Road

NW, Washington DC 20007-1199, USA.

Contributions appearing in the Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences are

normally original papers which have not been published elsewhere. The publication of a paper

that has been widely disseminated is permitted only if the editors judge that the manuscript

contains amplification or clarification of the original material of significant benefit to the

scientific community. Prior appearance of material reported in the submitted manuscript must

be noted in the cover letter. It is the obligation of the author(s) to inform the editors if there

are any circumstances about the contribution that bear on this policy. The style of manuscripts

should follow the model of the Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association,

3rd edition, with a few exceptions. The main exception is that text which is intended to be

italicized should use word processor italic code rather than underline code. A second exception

is in the use of numbers (see below).

Manuscripts may be submitted in either the traditional paper format or electronically.

WordPerfect 5.1 is the preferred word processor. In either case, the submission will be

acknowledged by the editors. With paper manuscripts, an original and three clear review copies

of everything must be submitted. Each copy should include glossy or clear photocopies of all

figures. Photocopies are acceptable only if they show all details necessary for critical

examination of the data. This is particularly important for halftone photographs.

The editors encourage contributors to use a grammar- and style-checking program such

as RightWriter, Grammatik, or Editor before submitting their manuscripts. Poorly written

manuscripts will be returned to the authors for rewriting.

General Policies and Guidelines

Review Procedures

The editors and associate editors are appointed by the Washington Academy of Sciences

and have final responsibility for all editorial decisions. Reviewers are selected by the editors,

in consultation with associate editors, for their competence in a specialized area of science or

engineering. When a manuscript is received, the editors will first judge if its content falls within

the scope of the Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences. Manuscripts of a very

specialized nature, or those that in the judgment of the editors are not of sufficient interest to

the general reader of the journal, will be returned to the author(s) without review. If the

manuscript is acceptable, it will be sent to two independent reviewers for evaluation. The

reviewers are advisory to the editors and their reports are used to reach all editorial decisions.

If the reviewers disagree, or if in the judgment of the editors the manuscript has not received

adequate consideration, the manuscript will be given to a third reviewer.

When a manuscript is returned to the author(s) for revision, they should reply to all specific

recommendations of the reviewers in an accompanying letter, indicating the recommendations

they have incorporated into the revision and their reasons for disregarding those they feel are

unacceptable. Minor corrections may be made on the manuscript by typewriter; major

corrections will require retyping of the entire page or section. Handwritten corrections will not

be accepted. The revised manuscript, in triplicate, should be returned to the editors within 60

days. Revised manuscripts received more than 120 days after return will be considered as new

submissions and will undergo a new review.

English Language

To assure the widest possible readership, only manuscripts in English will be considered

for publication. Authors not entirely familiar with English usage should seek a native English-

speaking colleague for advice on correct syntax and word usage. English-language editorial

assistance is available when needed. Correct style and word usage, however, are the

responsibility of the author(s).

References in the Text

All reference material should be accessible to the public (i.e., articles in standard journals

and governmental reports). References should follow APA style: they are cited in the text by

author and year (Fenchal & Finlay, 1992), or by year alone when the author’s name is in the

text; for example, "as described by Olive and Blanton (1980), ... .". Unpublished experiments

or observations, personal communications, papers submitted for publication or in preparation,

abstracts and dissertations should not be included in the References section but should appear

parenthetically in the text.

Hyphenation

Do not use a hyphen to divide words, including compound words, at the end of a line;

if the words are unfamiliar to the printer, they may be incorrectly hyphenated. Compound

words consisting of a noun and an adjective should be hyphenated, as in electron-microscopic

examination. Noun-noun compounds used as adjectives should also be hyphenated, as in lymph-

node cells.

Right-Justification

Do not justify right margin of text whether or not your word processor permits you to

do this.

Boldface and Italics

Word processor code is sufficient. If your word processor does not have boldface and

italic codes, then underline text to be italicized and put a wavy underline under text to be

boldfaced.

Metric System

The metric system should be used in all instances. Use SI units with standard prefixes.

(In 1990, the prefixes yocto- (y) (denoting 10%‘), zepto- (z) (denoting 107'), zetta- (Z) (denoting

10?'), and yotta- (Y) (denoting 10”) were added to the SI system.) Do not use nonstandard units

such as Angstrom, millimicron, cubic centimeter, etc.; rather use nanometer (nm), microliter

(uL), etc. Compound units, such as newton-meter, should be denoted N m or N-m (using

WordPerfect character 6,32, the small center dot). Quotients of units, such as meter per second,

should be denotea m/s, m s", or m:s".

Preparation of Manuscripts

General Instructions

The instructions for the development and submission of a manuscript should be followed

exactly to prevent delays in reviewing and handling. Before preparing a new paper for

submission the author(s) are advised to examine carefully current issues of the Jourxal to

familiarize themselves with the Journal’s conventions and note any changes in style.

All pages of the manuscript must be typewritten on one side of the paper, double-spaced

throughout (including Acknowledgments, References, Footnotes, Tables, and Figure Legends)

on 22 x 28 cm (8'4" x 11") bond or heavy-bodied paper. Ample margins of about 2.5 cm (1")

should be left on all sides for editorial corrections and queries. Number the manuscript pages

consecutively in the upper right corner beginning with the title page. The author’s name should

not appear on the manuscript beyond the title page.

The manuscript should be prepared with a standard typeface, size Elite or larger, using

a new black ribbon and solid white paper. Computer generated: documents must be clear and

readable of letter quality, using a open dot matrix or laser printer.

The author is responsible for putting the paper into the correct form. If this is not done

at the outset, changes in the manuscript or text will have to be made during refereeing and

editing, resulting in delay of publication. The author(s) should use clear, concise English. It

is often useful to have a draft of the paper read by one or more colleagues. They will often be

able to point out irrelevant matter and illogical or verbose statements. While a polished literary

style is not demanded of scientific papers, they should conform to the elementary rules of

grammar, syntax, and punctuation. Unattached participles, subject and verb complements, and

long sequences of nouns are some of the most common errors that author(s) should look for in

their writing. Words which may not be familiar to most readers should be boldfaced and

defined the first time they are used. Slang and language that reflects prejudice (e.g., sexist

language) must be avoided.

Cover Letter

A submittal letter must accompany the manuscript and should include a statement by the

author(s) that no significant amount of material reported has been published, or is under

consideration for publication elsewhere.

Permission to Reprint

The author must obtain written permission to reprint illustrations or tables from other

publications. Any such material should be accompanied by a complete citation of the copyright

owner (usually the publisher) and a statement that permission to reprint has been granted.

——— eee

Organization

The text of the manuscript for an original experimental contribution should be arranged

as follows (not all sections need be included): (1) Title Page; (2) Abstract; (3) Introduction;

(4) Materials and Methods; (5) Results; (6) Discussion; (7) Acknowledgments; (8)

References; (9) Footnotes; (10) Table Legends; (11) Tables; (12) Figure Legends,

followed by art work and camera-copy tables. Critical reviews and historical articles should

adhere to the general format of regular published papers in the Journal but do not require the

subheadings of an experimental paper. The desired position of tables and figures should be

indicated in the left margin of the text.

Subheads

All subheads should be descriptive clauses, not complete sentences or questions, and

should follow the format shown below.

One level:

Level 1 Subhead

Two levels:

Level 1 Subhead

Level 2 Subhead

Three levels:

Level 1 Subhead

Level 2 Subhead

Level 3 Subhead. Text.

Four levels:

Level 1 Subhead

Level 2 Subhead

Level 3 Subhead

Level 4 Subhead. Text.

Five levels:

LEVEL 1 SUBHEAD

Level 2 Subhead

Level 3 Subhead

Level 4 Subhead

Level 5 Subhead. Text.

Title Page

Page one should contain a short "running title" (no more than 70 letters and spaces) at

the top of the page; the title (no more than 100 letters and spaces); the author(s)’ name(s)

(capitalize all letters and omit degrees or titles), and full departmental and institutional

affiliation(s) (in italics); a list of key words not present in the title, and the name, address,

telephone number and facsimile (FAX) number, if available, of the corresponding author.

The title should be specific and informative. Subtitles are not encouraged and a pair of

articles numbered "I" and "II" is acceptable only if both are submitted and accepted together.

Avoid special symbols and formulas in titles unless they are essential to indicate content. In the

title, capitalize the first letter of all words except articles, prepositions, and coordinate

conjunctions. The listing of the names of coauthors implies that the manuscript meets with their

approval. The affiliation appearing under the author’s name should be the organization where

the experimental work was carried out. If this is no longer the author’s current affiliation, the

latter address is given in a footnote. Funding sources, contribution numbers, and presentations,

if any, of the material given at a scientific meeting (give dates and sponsoring societies) should

be acknowledged in a footnote.

Abstract

The abstract starts on page 2 and is a brief summary or synopsis consisting of 250 words

or less. It should include information on objectives, procedures, results, and conclusions.

When published, the abstract will precede the introductory section of the text. The abstract

should be written in complete sentences; it should be self-explanatory and intelligible without

reference to the rest of the article. The abstract should not be written in the first person and

abbreviations and references should not be used.

Introduction

The introduction (not headed) should begin on page 3. The introduction should state the

purpose of the investigation, briefly and clearly describing its relationship to previous research

in the field and on related topics. However, extensive reviews of the literature should be

avoided.

Materials and Methods (Experimental Procedure)

In order to enable full understanding and allow for the results to be reproduced and

confirmed, the materials and experimental procedures section should describe in sufficient detail

the experiments performed. Normal experimental procedures should be described in detail, with

shorter terse descriptions given for general techniques and complete published procedures

referred to by literature citations of both the original and any published modifications. When

experimental procedure requires the use of particular products and equipment, the name and

location of the supplier should be given in parentheses. Whenever hazardous procedures or

materials are utilized, the necessary precautions should be stated.

Results

The results should be presented concisely. Tables and figures should be used only if they

are essential for the comprehension of the data. The same data should not be presented in more

than one figure, in both a figure and a table, or redescribed completely in the text. As a rule,

interpretation of the results should be reserved for the discussion.

Discussion

The purpose of the discussion is to interpret the results and to relate them to existing

knowledge in the field. In general, observe brevity consistent with clarity. Information given

elsewhere in the manuscript should not be repeated in the discussion. Extensive reviews of the

literature should be avoided.

+ eS ee

Acknowledgments

Acknowledge in this section technical assistance, advice from colleagues, gifts, etc.

Financial support should be acknowledged in a footnote to the title. '

References

Articles "in press" may be cited in the reference list, but articles “submitted for

publication" or "in preparation" should not be included.

Journal Articles. Each citation to a journal article should give the surnames and initials

of all authors, followed by the year in parentheses, title of the article, name of the journal,

volume number, and inclusive pages. In titles of articles, capitalize only the initial letter and

words that are capitalized in normal text. /talicize titles of journals, capitalizing major words.

(Clear abbreviations are acceptable.) /talicize volume numbers. Examples:

Brill, D., Ayres, V., & Gaunaurd, G. (1987). The influence of natural resonances on

scattering and radiation processes. J. Wash. Acad. Sci., 77, 55-65.

Kumar, S. (1987). Fatty acid synthase: a protein having many catalytically active domains.

J. Wash. Acad. Sci., 77, 66-75.

Articles in Books. Citations to articles in books should give the surnames and initials of

all authors, followed by the year in parentheses, title of the article or chapters, editor(s)’

name(s), book title, inclusive pages in parentheses, place of publication, and publisher. In titles

of articles and books, capitalize only the initial letter and words that are capitalized in normal

text. J/talicize titles of books. (Do not abbreviate.) Example:

Nozawa, Y., & Thompson, G. Y. (1981). Lipids and membrane organization in Tetrahymena.

In M. Levandowsky & S. H. Hutner (Eds.), Biochemistry and physiology of protozoa (2nd ed.,

pp. 275-338). New York: Academic Press.

Books. Citations to books should give the surnames and initials of all authors, followed

by the year of publication in parentheses, title of the book, place of publication, and publisher.

In titles of books, capitalize only the initial letter, any word following a colon and proper nouns.

Italicize titles of books. (Do-not abbreviate.) Example:

Riedl, R. (1978). Order in living organisms: A system analysis of evolution. New York: John

Wiley.

Technical Reports. Citations to technical reports should give the surnames and initials

of all authors, followed by the year of publication in parentheses, title of the report, report

number, place of publication, and publisher. In titles of technical reports, capitalize only the

initial letter, any word following a semicolon or a dash, and proper nouns. /Jtalicize titles of

technical reports. (Do not abbreviate.) Example:

Brush, L. (1979). Why women avoid the study of mathematics: A longitudinal study. (Contract

No. 400-77-0099) Washington, DC: National Institute of Education.

Tables

All tables must be cited in the text of the manuscript. Since tabular material is expensive

to reproduce, it should be simple and uncomplicated, with as few vertical and horizontal rules

as possible. Tables should be on separate pages assigned Arabic numbers and arranged consecu-

tively. Table titles should be complete but brief. Information other than that defining the data

should be formatted in paragraph style. Footnotes within tables should be indicated by super-

script letters: *, °, °, etc. Indicate in the margin where the tables are to appear in the text.

Figures (Illustrations)

Figures should be assigned Arabic numbers and arranged consecutively. Illustrations that

are to be grouped together should be mounted as plates in the most economically arranged

layout. Individual figures within a group must be squared accurately and mounted with edges

touching (butted) and with no white line showing between the figures. When several figures are

grouped together, the figure numbers should be placed in the lower right corner whenever

possible. All illustrations, whether layouts or single figures, may match either the size of a

single column (63 mm) or the width of the entire page (126 mm). The maximum length of a

layout is 201 mm. It is advisable to protect all illustrations and figures with non-abrasive dust

covers. On the back of each illustration, indicate the figure number, author’s name, a brief title,

and an arrow pointing to the top of the illustration.

Halftone Illustrations. Halftone illustrations (that is, photographs, micrographs,

shaded and wash drawings) should be sharp, well-contrasted glossy prints of the original

negative, maximally trimmed at right angles to eliminate unnecessary areas without significant

information content, and should be of the desired final size. It is important that author(s) use the

maximum possible size only to increase the information content of illustrations; large peripheral

areas of figures with low information content must be avoided. Original halftone illustrations

must be mounted on heavy-weight drawing paper or thin poster board.

Line Drawings. Line drawings should be submitted as black India ink drawings on

white paper. High quality photographic reproductions (glossy prints) are acceptable. Line

drawings and copies of figures need not be mounted.

Figures (Legends)

Legends should be concise and provide a brief, self-sufficient explanation of the

illustrations. Legends for plates with multiple figures should be grouped together. Provide a title

for the entire plate followed by the descriptions of the individual figures in the plate. If the

magnification is quoted in a sentence, it should appear in parentheses; for example, (X 500).

At the end of the legend, it should appear as a sentence fragment; for example, "

cytoskeleton. X 41,000." Use the cross (WordPerfect character 6,39), not the letter x, to

denote multiplication. The length of calibration bars should be given; for example,

“Bar: 1.0um.” Please italicize “arrows,” “arrowheads,” “asterisk” when these words appear in a

legend.

99 6¢

Footnotes

All footnotes should be placed on a separate page. The first footnote should be from the

title page and refer to the title of the manuscript and/or the author(s). Textual footnotes should

include a list of abbreviations, be numbered consecutively, be brief, and be kept to a minimum.

Common Questions and Errors

1. Spell out acronyms and abbreviations the first time they are used unless they are

common throughout the discipline.

2. In the text, avoid beginning a sentence with an abbreviation, a symbol, or a numeral.

3. A generic name should be spelled out the first time it is used but abbreviated any

additional times it is used. Example: Euplotes eurystomus the first time; E. eurystomus the

second time.

4. When reporting statistics, the name of the statistic, the degrees of freedom, the value

obtained, and the p-value should be reported.

5. Use roman type, not italic, for chemical symbols for elements and chemical formulae.

The mass number precedes the symbol. Example: '7C.

6. The standard symbols (without periods) for SI units should be used. If English units

- (such as inches or pounds per square inch) are used, their metric equivalents must be given in

parentheses. Abbreviations, especially of units, should not be used in the plural. Exceptions

will be permitted for the use of plurals in abbreviations when the use of plurals clearly

contributes to clarity and prevents ambiguities.

7. Use a hyphen between a number and a unit when used as an adjective. Example: 10-

mL vial.

8. When the decimal point is used to express a fractional number, a 0 must be placed in

front of it. Example: 0.28.

9. Do not use commas in long numerals. Either use no spaces or a full or half space

every three digits. Example: 299792458 or 299 792 458, not 299,792,458. (This is an

exception to APA style. In WordPerfect 5.1, a half space can be created using the Advance

Right feature.) Alternatively, express large or small numbers in scientific notation. Example:

3.00 x 10°. Use the cross (WordPerfect character 6,39), not the letter x, in scientific notation.

10. Spell out numbers from one to nine except in a series of related numbers or where

numerals are the standard usage. Example: 9 + 2.

11. Temperature symbols should include the value, then a space, then the unit.

Example. 10 °C.

12. Latitude and longitude should have spaces between symbols and the following

numbers. Example: 430° 02’ 22" N, 70° 42’ 57" W.

13. Centrifugation should be described in terms of relative centrifugal force, expressed

in terms of g units of acceleration, rather than in terms of rotational speed in revolutions per

minute.

14. Equations: Large, complex mathematical equations should be set off within the text

where the use of exponents and built-up fractions is preferred for clarity. In WordPerfect 5.1,

use the Equation Editor to create an equation of Paragraph type.

Example:

Zou = = pAR? [sin@d® (1)

Short mathematical expressions should be incorporated within the line of text and not

displayed on a separate line. In WordPerfect 5.1, use the Equation Editor to create an equation

of Character type. Avoid exponents having more than one level of characters. For example

instead of ox?+y? , use exp(x’ + y’). Also, avoid the use of built-up fractions in the text.

For example, instead of = , use 1/n or the negative exponent form n'. Likewise, avoid

small-type expressions centered above or below arrows. Equations that are referred to later in

the text should be numbered sequentially and referred to, for instance, as Equation (1). Avoid

numbering equations that are not used.

15. If you are using WordPerfect 5.1, use the extended character set to create any

symbols not found on the standard keyboard, such as Greek letters, mathematical symbols, etc.

(This set is described in the document CHARACTR.DOC. To type characters in this set, press

CTRL-V, then enter the two-number key for the character.) Otherwise, write in such symbols

by hand.

Accepted Manuscripts

If the manuscript is acceptable after refereeing, the author(s) will be asked to sign a

declaring that the paper is part of government work. The return of the signed form to the

editors completes the acceptance process.

Use Agreement

Abstracting of material published in the Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences

is permitted with credit to the source. Instructors are permitted to photocopy isolated articles

for noncommercial classroom use without fee.

Proofs

The corresponding author will receive a single set of page and illustration proofs. Proofs

must be returned within 48 hours of their receipt. Delays in the return of the proofs can cause

major delays in publication. All corrections should be marked clearly and directly on the page

proofs; the authors are solely responsible for marking printer’s errors. Due to the high cost of

corrections in proofs, no substantial alterations can be permitted after page proofs have been

generated.

Page Charges

The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences depends in part on the payment of

page charges to help defray the cost of publication. It is anticipated that the page charges of $50

(SRI en tees ae a er se

per printed page ($40 for members of the Academy) will be paid by those authors who have

funds available for that purpose, either from their institution or corporation or from the sponsor

of the research. Members of the Academy in good standing without funds may apply through

the editorial office for funds from the Past Presidents’ Fund to partially cover the cost of

publication. However, editorial acceptance of a paper is not affected by payment or nonpayment

and the payment of page charges is not a condition of publication.

Reprints

An order form for reprints will be sent with the page proofs. Reprints can be purchased,

provided they are ordered when the corrected proofs are returned to the editors’ office.

é nie ary

eee el ag

| *

1 “i i y

7 ARC rd

hy aaa le

ay! rales

x 4 4

; sty

- 4

——

ar a RR os wore Te ey

a 3 Korat * “YER Axi ex Ries

eit ‘% a et og Pe sg 4;

in = Heian vas A a % re}

i aa Q sate att on

w ‘: i a . ots OF fi) re bis

é i?

ir whee oi

omy pa sina

pe eS bn ‘i nes ae

a eae, ey : ; : Dh. xe - ( y

. REAL tiree See Branigl to Whiner, hy Bashantwe Cas Berets Sat on

z wr sma Os our biad ons ind madera? = aNatiCN) ay Bs

ib diity P a Me PRLS 3) pag ure ct ¥ besa = . be

S : ‘ as ; ;

A —— 7 - y 4

| Be wb: iy mn (ip hig gl Ged aks |

. ie Oe: 2 - a

; eas Ne ¢ , aloes wa ‘ sie wut ~~

‘ f rely fee yy mies : 4 ) Pele P AAS

aa? ad fe oe Dy t { ;

: ; ‘ : ye }

2 *, j ?

» ey 1 ie f 4 ?

Ln. fel a} arin, 1 1¢ : ) Xie 5a) cit

r , hs

th v ‘ 4 . ‘

' Oe Aiea Marseter.y. Torte

a { fonds x i « i

A eeu { ‘

y = > { 7

f j

oe ‘

{ i

RB ¢

u <=

ty j

~ “ " i

y ; -

‘ Ly oe

; ns +i

¥ ie

' -

hi . a

- : “ene . c a

oh vw} (ve

x md . '

Z rC { ‘

‘ 7 re te

a ‘ *

5 wae ? )

\ é r PS

cs {

2 is -

‘

}

as ’ fe S

} q

: ;

5 §

A e

; i}

is ay

es ~ -

Cn A as

= \ yi

7 1 ;

{ 2 4 > a

t x %.

~ *

j + z ta)

“ab ‘ - , 7 ye

3! 7 } =

‘ = 6

} {

; ; 5

; kK -

> +“ a i>

c *

ly a

; ( 4 a

shih a. x ne a <

* ee 7] >

avery eat)

a ae ;

rt fang melee ae a |

MX ak oe uy _ cee Nate re = ;

ike asvohaia oa AF wt ak abe hh : 7

botiarea <page bali ame 5 sine 8 ate

= er

\ Retiow. Laweoaili

LOE SE teers “haley By Leta

an aT, Uanlces eas ye acs nae i i - he a7 lew vy los te’,

bilo aaa scala ae ene pe

J 2, ea AEs 9 Sig ck Bees kis leat jis “Fines es

} w Sea: ah hoa re 5 . i iss : Ye a i>, ye re on

Stascaey Wane Section eG, 1 a ee “hae ia Dow

Beit Goeinonts: ye Ay siak Wittens

BS toes: Pipeirpabics f Ree 4 V ilaaees betel eae “ieee JA Ryineyr

Ryo! Weochaiiaess: Ragiiessy. Want ae Satin hewn ee, Renee

B Society of Wodbiigei Fereck : hk mete Poceses

: tat Mixehibkhogy, % Srp ari #4 ps Wik: hr. =A) - tea } aR ei

ice soly Bitton Tue: HaRKA, Vs Ladi inig ton Poa Se pete 2 bineegee!

pal Cw i? Unica: PNuyt ioe al ¢ pital Seoviiie Ene . ia, wrt

cé

f, Wapeio Cheer coe alt |. a & Ot

sia i Dees! Fee ar hy, Wirt ihaian Socih we a fj 2 hud

or Aw ree: Loc Avs: es theew, m ft seri _ pan . ae,

| biad Suet, Lx Chaves : ; . ‘ Tey ® soe

Y vor Wu abeivagtione ‘. _ a 4 4 [eager

c teasel’. Waahis gaps EIS: . | . Lute, Aon

stad . y

om ae mite, Wealimigion Sermon... 2.., ee

a Soci “¥ Le a un ts w edb ene we xt i, Ww Zi ‘as re.

f ¥ ’ tio

“ty ; Ay Se Oral

vot $c; a oA ¥ i Sule’ : =) ; Re eras). “

stion of Pipes joat cher, Chiwspeale Seteam - 3 Tot

tig Aner nine

¥ ; xi ty Of Mart J hytdoh ists, Waahinyion Apee:Seas

Operations %- sare? af Aa tragrimen! bi ' ogi =e

ty at Ani one Washington Socthas ; ‘ a

af Abin Hg, sdceaiies clive acct Pi

fy Seite ‘ a : er .: ; ; ae

A a iat abe eur) oe 3 _ iA F: “i

at ‘7 oe | Asenesrbunii ei. Ait — a s ‘i> Ms ; co : ae }

<a of Columbine Lyretincdae Set e be er er » i

$y abe & cn TA Pi Whigs ne aa Aa? eg re =p 4 a : ; 3 ; £ aye “g

hem! ‘> i ir ae reve a, é rT uv nae My, A : ane oD, glia d. ac ; = - 5 “ . ;

. Phe Vip Be et AZ thee: a . » ; r : ; . ‘ 7 a , ¢ os c 7 ; oa 7B. ; i *

HCkinexa! ois cs Wane i rit Pele Fs LUA: Ris! ae ee

on 6h Restos iG eiiey, ‘Poknetowed Lingle”

han Fietetns Sache, ‘Pipegurtin aes

st inlonaie ee rig tad bili rv

Bok etal ak

cat? oe ore Ds +) ere

‘ol re ?

eee a

AN cadences Phddnas i. Lahn

iy aad “Kyte. Eusthiald.

: velueaee tive ves ay “ae fost sine: A By Brawn,

+Tal Neiaiat ‘atrd bert piste, DC" Se SOD. 5 ee

fy a Fagegitt. Wnihingiow * cs ey ; ’ 7 = hy ,

DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES,

REPRESENTING THE LOCAL AFFILIATED SOCIETIES

Pmilosaphical Society of Washington .......:.6.62050.5). 1008604 s600s...: Lhomas R. Lettien

| Patnropolocical Society Of Washington .. 52.2.0... cc. cc es eee ee ces Belford Lawson III

| Bemarieal society Of WaSMINOTOM <). 5) acc. 8 ook Gace sowie solo Robie oe ak wakes os Kristian Fauchald

| Mhemica society Of Washington 2... 5. ihe c bce ee ok wae eeeeok awe e ed Elise A. B. Brown

Pnromolerical Society of Washington ....0...3.2. 5506060000 ceca ee ees F. Christian Thompson

ena Mt COPEAD NIC SOCIETY) 4 niece cise oaks a/c ode ee bate Se clowns Sivatee beelels Stanley G. Leftwich

| mreslgeical Society of Washington: 2... 2sccecc edie cece ceases eccctcewtacan James V. O'Connor

| Medigansocicty Of the District of Columbia... .02 680586 obo. oe ce ces eel obs oe John P. Utz

| Pistoneal Society of Washington, DCO . 2... o....sie. iw. ce eee ceed vale Thomas G. Manning

| MCAS ORIELY Ol WASHINGTON 4.02. sents cee neces ctl eyes hele aade es hance Muriel Poston

| Society of American Foresters, Washington Section .. 0.6.0. 00.5... e ce le lee Eldon W. Ross

i! Pe PUNE SOCICLY Ol ENPIMCETS Wie. csc sales ons od nd sins vias sue Sele is ob ees se EE Alvin Reiner

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Washington Section ........ George Abraham

i American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Washington Section ......... Clayton W. Robson

ide Mminthological Society of Washington 2... ....0..2.....00. 00 ce cece eae Kendall G. Powers

American Society for Microbiology, Washington Branch .................. Herman Schneider

Society of American Military Engineers, Washington Post .................... James Donahue

American Society of Civil Engineers, National Capital Section .............. John N. Hummel

Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine, DC Section .............. Cyrus R. Creveling

| Awemcrnational, Washington Chapter’ ..2/..6:....5 se. esc he dice ce eaes Pamela S. Patrick

\ American Association of Dental Research, Washington Section ............. J. Terrell Hoffeld

| American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, National Capital

SO MORN NE ep og so oc tny oats A LA ale PEt "eas ia olde, Suaiaet che le'siwids 6 04 Reginald C. Smith

| Amenean Victeorological:Society, DC Chapter .........00 00005000000 eee ees A. James Wagner

| Bast seietiec society Of Washington 2.2)... 002. hoe le edie de cect cee ee ee To be determined

i Acoustical Society of America, Washington Chapter ......................., Richard K. Cook

| Amchcanewucicar Society, Washington Section .........5..05 5... c cece ese c es ewes Kamal Araj

} Institute of Food Technologists, Washington Section .................... George W. Irving, Jr.

American Ceramic Society, Baltimore-Washington Section .................. Curtis A. Martin

Pen MMC AES OGICDYA sdetails acon uc ck clad vk secu dina secs ede Paul Natishan

| yy sminctonistony Of science Club)... foe ol cee ca cece ecw ee Albert G. Gluckman

| American Association of Physics Teachers, Chesapeake Section ............. Robert A. Morse

| Optical Society of America, National Capital Section ....................5- William R. Graver

| American Society of Plant Physiologists, Washington Area Section ............. Steven J. Britz

| Washington Operations Research/Management Science Council .............. John G. Honig

Insthument Society of America, Washineton.Section ..............2...0...66. Donald M. Paul

| American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers,

RVI EMPTOR SEC UOM Emme ciate hla acl Wels ate oS ieee eae o snaei idles Lawl ss David M. Sutphin

Neareonaln Capital ASTROMOMEES eck e soko ese ec ee cbc es ea tade see ces Robert H. McCracken

Mathematics Association of America, MD-DC-VA Section ..................... Alice Schafer

Disinctot Columbialnstitute Of Chemists ..).60)5 6. ee cc hd cee oe ee William E. Hanford

District of Columbia Psychological Association ..... Re een eo Snr ae Sue Bogner

J Masmimeton Paint; Fechnology Group: oF ./h edhe. ai cc sk a Yat lere sls die wow oc ee Lloyd M. Smith

American Phytopathological Society, Potomac Division .................... Kenneth L. Deahl

| Society for General Systems Research, Metropolitan Washington

f CA OWEIE A een OE 2 Sikes 2 nn anne ee ANC ae RO RS John H. Proctor

| human actors: society, Potomac Chapter). 2. 5.......65 605 feds bles cess Thomas B. Malone

Amencan Fisheries Society, Potomac Chapter... /.... 0.5.2. 6...50.0 08 David A. Van Vorhees

Association for Science, Technology and Innovation ........................ ... Ralph I. Cole

| Basten Sociol osicaliSocietya wns... n0 ns ht so roe ee ee eee eee Ronald W. Manderscheid

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Northern Virginia

ee Sell NO Daten tee ees taka eo to Se arts SU SINR, eka Pepe mane ea, Sea aR OE Blanchard D. Smith

} Association for Computing Machinery, Washington Chapter ............. Charles E. Youman

} Washinmeton! Statistical SOciebyi. ie oan oes ee ee lee mee ON, ciate Nancy Flournoy

i Society of Manufacturing Engineers, Washington, DC Chapter ............... James E. Spates

i Institute of Industrial Engineers, National Capital Chapter ................... James S. Powell

| Delegates continue to represent their societies until new appointments are made.

“

Washington Academy of Sciences 2nd Class Postage Paid

2100 Foxhall Rd. NW at Arlington, Va.

Washinaton, DC 20007 ’ and additional mailing offices.

Return Requested with Form 3579

a | 7

N H VOLUME 82

Number 2

Journal of the : Teboe

WASHINGTON

ACADEMY .. SCIENCES

ISSN 0043-0439

Issued Quarterly

at Washington, D.C.

CONTENTS

Articles:

COLLIN C. CARBNO & SHIRLEY F. CARBNO, “Deviation Fractal

Dimension”

OS OOS OS PS SOONG SSS OA A OSes Oech Oe Cute) Cac Ont PCC Di Cnn rt ONO OG Ce Ch OO.

CLIFFORD M. KROWNE & AARON P. KROWNE, “Nonlinear Dynamical

Formulation for Describing Growth of Cancer Cells” .... 2.200.250. 2a. se ee bse 67

CARL M. HARRIS, EDWARD RATTNER & CLIFTON SUTTON, “How

Senouslyis the US AIDS Population Understated?” . 2.0.0... eee

Washington Academy of Sciences

Founded in 1898

EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

President

Stanley G. Leftwich

President-Elect

John H. Proctor

Secretary

Nina M. Roscher

Treasurer

Norman Doctor

Past President

Walter E. Bock

Vice President, Membership Affairs

Cyrus R. Creveling

Vice President, Administrative Affairs

Grover C. Sherlin

Vice President, Junior Academy Affairs

Marylin B. Krupsaw

Vice President, Affiliate Affairs

Thomas W. Doeppner

Board of Managers

James W. Harr

John H. Proctor

Herbert H. Fockler

T. Dale Stewart

William B. Taylor

James H. Donahue

REPRESENTATIVES FROM

AFFILIATED SOCIETIES

Delegates are listed on inside rear cover

of each Journal.

ACADEMY OFFICE

2100 Foxhall Road, N.W.

Washington, D.C. 20007

Phone: (202) 337-2077

EDITORIAL BOARD

Editor:

Bruce F. Hill, Mount Vernon College

Associate Editors:

Milton P. Eisner, Mount Vernon Col-

lege

Albert G. Gluckman, University of

Maryland

Marc Rothenberg, Smithsonian Insti-

tution

Marc M. Sebrechts, Catholic Univer-

sity of America

Edward J. Wegman, George Mason

University

The Journal

This journal, the official organ of the Washing-

ton Academy of Sciences, publishes original

scientific research, critical reviews, historical

articles, proceedings of scholarly meetings of

its affiliated societies, reports of the Academy,

and other items of interest to Academy

members. The Journal appears four times a

year (March, June, September, and De-

cember). The December issue contains a di-

rectory of the current membership of the

Academy.

Subscription Rates

Members, fellows, and life members in good

standing receive the Journal without charge.

Subscriptions are available on a calendar year

basis, payable in advance. Payment must be

made in U.S. currency at the following rates:

U.S; and Canada *. . ..... See $25.00

Other countries | .....4.2. 73 30.00

Single copies, when available ....... 10.00

Claims for Missing Issues

Claims will not be allowed if received more

than 60 days after the day of mailing plus time

normally required for postal delivery and

claim. No claims will be allowed because of

failure to notify the Academy of a change of

address.

Notification of Change of Address

Address changes should be sent promptly to

the Academy Office. Such notification should

show both old and new addresses and zip

codes. _

POSTMASTER: Send address changes to

Washington Academy of Sciences, 2100 Fox-

hall Road, N.W. Washington, DC 20007-

1199.

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences (ISSN 0043-0439)

Published quarterly in March, June, September, and December of each year by the Washing-

ton Academy of Sciences, 2100 Foxhall Road, N.W., Washington, DC, 20007-1199. Second

Class postage paid at Washington, DC and additional mailing offices.

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences,

Volume 82, Number 2, Pages 63-66, June 1992

Deviation Fractal Dimension

Collin C. Carbno

Saskatchewan Telecommunications

Shirley F. Carbno

SAY-C Software

There are many definitions (and estimates) of the fractal dimension of an

object. Most of these definitions are equivalent in continuous domain, but some

differ on discretized and digitized data (Barnsley, 1988; Dubic et al., 1987;

Feder, 1988). As many researchers have discovered, the standard algorithms are

somewhat awkward when it comes to processing actual experimental data

(Knuth, 1992). We proposed another fractal dimension definition that for the

case of an equally spaced time data series is conceptually simple.

Given that one has a set of date points x', i = 1 to N, which were captured at

equal time intervals one can form the point-to-point-variance (PTPV) s’, calcu-

lated with the formula

Spe) Ge Xe) Lal = N)/(N — A)

where we adopt Iverson’s convention that [expression] has value | if expression

is true, value 0 if expression is false (Moon, 1987). This concept is similar to the

usual statistical variance, except that instead of the mean it uses the value of the

‘previous data point. From the PTPV one can form a point-to-point-deviation

(PTPD) s by taking the square root of PTPV.

The fractal dimension of an object is related to how that object behaves under

scaling of some parameter. For example, in the a coastline case we have that L,

the length of coastline, an island can be expressed as,

Ken

where r is length of the ruler used to measure the coastline, D is the fractal

dimension, and K is a constant. In this case, the scaling parameter is the length

64 CARBNO AND CARBNO

of the ruler used to measure the coastline. If the coastline has fractal dimension

greater than one it follows that the length of the coastline becomes infinite as the

ruler decreases in length. Mandelbrot’s insight was that over many scales of

magnitude the value D typically remains a constant, so that fractal dimension is

a good characterization of the scaling nature of a phenomenon.

Using a similar approach, one asks how the PTPD will scale as a function of

the time interval between data points. Now if the data behaved as if it were a

straight line between the points, it follows that if you halve the time separation,

that the PTPD will also halved. On the other hand, if each data points value is

completely independent of previous data points, such as series formed from a set

of dice throws, the value of PTPD will remain a constant. That is, if we throw the

dice twice as often, we wouldn’t expect that the new intermediate values would

reflect the dice’s previous value. That being the case we would expect that the

PTPD for a series of dice throws to remain a constant. :

These cases suggest a fractal dimension relationship

SS hy

where w is interval time separation between points, and K is a constant, D is

fractal dimension, s = PTPD.

In the limit as w approaches zero, if D approaches a constant value, then this

value can be called the deviation fractal dimension of the data series. Typically,

in the proposed method, one approximates the fractal dimension by comparing

the PTPD calculated from data points two units apart. (Naturally, one can

obtain whole series of variance values by using points in pairs that are three, four

and so on time units apart.) In the case where the data values are independent,

we would expect that D = 2, and in the case where the data values are smoothly

changing in time, we would expect that D — 1. Thus, the deviation fractal is

similar to other fractal dimensions and is related to the space-filling capability of

the curve from which the data values are taken.

Similarity of the PTPV to the usual variance of statistics may suggest to

researchers ways of determining the statistical significance of particular devia-

tion fractal diniension for a given data set. As such, investigation of this statistics

may lead to a further synthesis of statistical and fractal dimension concepts. Past

research into the connection between statistics and fractal has been fruitful with

concepts such as fractal brownian functions, fractal brownian motion, R/S anal-

ysis, and fractal statistics (Vicsek, 1992).

As atest of the method, two sets of data were obtained. One dataset consisted

of the minute-by-minute measurements of RM-60 Radiation Monitor (product

of Aware Electronics) which provided via software connection to a personal

computer minute by minute readings in miroroentgens per hour. A number of

DEVIATION FRACTAL DIMENSION 65

data samples were obtained including runs of up to 48 hours periods. The data

was loaded into a spreadsheet and the PTPD was calculated using points in pairs

2, 3,4, - - - 40 time units apart. The PT PV from this procedure remained fairly

constant with some fluctuations as expected. Below is a table calculated from a

514 minute radiation file.

Minute separation PTPD

1 minute 5.87

2 minutes 5.91

3 minutes 5.92

4 minutes SeD

5 minutes 5.84

Other data samples showed different patterns of PTPD so it appears that PTPD

‘1s basically a constant, and that the radiation received in any minute has no

predictive power for radiation that will be received in the next minute.

The second set of data consisted of daily weather temperatures (highs and

lows) over a 27 year period. When we examined this data we found a PTPV for 1

to 10 day separation as follows (Weather Data provided by B. Farrer).

PTPYV Fractal Dimension

Sep. Highs Lows Data Pairs Points High Temp Low Temp

l 139.2 106.7 9834 1.41 1.44

2 209.0 igen 9833 hy, 1.56

3 248.5 188.8 9832 1.66 1.58

4 273.8 212.8 9831 1:65 1.65

5 296.2 229.8 9830 1.79 1.66

6 307.8 244.6 9829 [e735 7

i 321.5 2535 9828 1c29 1.80

8 330.3 260.5 9827 1.84 1.78

9 336.5 2OT5 9826 1.79 1.64

10 344.2 277.9 9825

The fractal deviation dimension in the table were calculated using the formula

D = 2 — In (s,/s,)/In (w./w,)

The fractal value of 1.4 for one day separation suggests that the next day’s

weather is somewhat dependent on today’s weather. A value of 1.4 indicates

roughly that 60% of the next day’s weather is explained by today’s weather. At

the eight day separations point, the variance is not dropping as fast as the time

separation interval which can be interpreted as saying roughly that weather 7

days from now and 8 days from now are not that dependent on each other.

66 CARBNO AND CARBNO

The PTPV were also calculated (using C) all the way from w = | day to w = 26

years. The PTPV showed as expected minimums on each yearly boundary. The

yearly minimums themselves also showed a 4 year cycle pattern which is nicely

explained by leap year phenomena.

Does the deviation fractal dimension yield in the limit as w > O the same

fractal dimension as other standard definition? As yet, the author hasn’t found a

proof or a counter example for this conjecture. The proposed definition has

some resemblance to the variational method of Dubic, being roughly based on

the concept that a curve with fractal dimension is not differentiable. Thus any

value which measures the rate of growth of the local derivative should be related

to the fractal dimension. This suggests that perhaps a proof similar to what was

used in the variation method of Dubic might work.

Some numerical studies were done. Curves were generated with the fractal

interpretation method of Michael Barnsley (Feder, 1988). The known fractal

dimension of these curves was then compared with the calculations gave results

that showed a strong correlation with known fractal dimensions. The differences

most of the time ranged from 0 to around 0.15. The deviation fractal dimension

was closer in the case of curves with higher fractal values and consistently gave

high results for curves with fractal dimensions close to 1. Other computer trials

were run in which the data points were brought closer and closer together. As

expected the deviation fractal dimension showed a convergence towards the

actual values. This suggests that the deviation fractal dimension is indeed a new

way of obtaining fractal dimension of data.

References

Barnsley, M. (1988). Fractals Everywhere. Boston: Academic Press.

Dubic, B. et al. (1987). Visual Communications and Image Processing IT, 845:241-248.

Feder, J. (1988). Fractals. New York: Plenum.

Knuth, D. (1992). Two Notes on Notation. The American Mathematical Monthly. 99:403-421.

Moon, F. (1987). Chaotic Vibrations. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Vicsek, Tamas. (1992). Fractal Growth Phenomena. London: World Scientific.

Weather Data—compliments of Bruce Farrer, Atmospheric Environment Service Station 401-6322-683

6620C, Qu’Appelle #1, Saskatchewan, Canada.

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences,

Volume 82, Number 2, Pages 67-78, June 1992

Nonlinear Dynamical Formulation for

Describing Growth of Cancer Cells

Clifford M. Krowne and Aaron P. Krowne

3810 Maryland Street

Alexandria, VA 22309

ABSTRACT

A set of equations characterizing the interactions between RNA, DNA and proteins is

postulated to describe the growth of tumor cells. From this set of equations, a method to

determine the fixed points of the system is presented including the use of the Jacobian

matrix. Assessment of the nonlinear dynamics around these fixed points is provided.

Introduction

It is widely recognized that the common and perhaps only methods to treat

cancer are radiation treatment (Hall), chemotherapy, surgery, microwave hy-

perthermia (Carr, 1991), and combinations of these. All of these modalities

have relative merits and disadvantages. But an overriding concern is that they all

fail to reduce the number of tumor cells below a level at which they cease to

replicate. Thus, enough tumor cells seem always to be left to form the starting

population for another nonlinear growth process. There are hundreds of types of

cancer (Golumbek et al., 1991) in a dozen general categories, including lym-

| phoma, mammary (Friedenthal et al., 1984), prostate (Mendecki et al., 1980),

myeloma, brain (Borok et al., 1988), lung, leukemia, and melanoma. The au-

thor is particularly disturbed by the intractable nature of some of these cancers

in terms of treating them, preventing them, and explaining why they are on the

increase. Breast cancer (Rosen, 1991; Wallis, 1991) is one of the most publi-

cized cancers and one of the most difficult to understand and treat effectively. In

contrast, lymphoma may be treated relatively effectively by surgical removal,

followed by a secondary modality if warranted (ie.; chemo- or radiation

therapy).

To both understand cancer cellular growth and prevent it in humans, it is

68 KROWNE AND KROWNE |

necessary to have a comprehensive research and clinical program using the

latest developments and breakthroughs in fields which appear at first to appear

wholly unrelated. These fields are microbiology, DNA engineering, molecular

structure and crystallography, metabolic biology (May, 1987), nonlinear mathe-

matics-physics-engineering, and clinical oncology.

It is the intent of this paper to outline qualitatively and quantitatively the

possibilities of nonlinear mathematics (Mackey and Milton, 1990; West, 1990)

in explaining cell growth from a point of view of physics (Tomsovic and Heller,

1991; Pecora and Carroll, 1991; Corcoran, 1991; Scholl and Hupper, 1991; Chi

and Vanneste, 1990; Ditto et al., 1990) and engineering (Krowne and Skor-

upka, 1992; Skorupka et al., 1991; Carroll and Pecora, 1991; Parker and Chua,

1987; Matsumoto et al., 1985; Chua, 1984). A specific set of equations charac-

terizing the interactions between RNA, DNA and proteins is assumed .to de-

scribe the growth of tumor cells. From this set of equations, a method to deter-

mine the fixed points of the system is described including the use of the Jacobian

matrix. Assessment of the nonlinear dynamics around these fixed points is

provided.

Metabolic Cell Growth Behavior

Increase in the number of living cells, malignant or normal, requires a num-

ber of biological processes to happen between two successive cell divisions. Cell

mass should approximately double, and the genetic material encoded in the

cellular DNA must be provided to the two daughter cells. The time between

cellular divisions, the period T, is often divided into three unequal intervals; the

G, interval, the S interval, and the G,M interval. The G, interval involves

cellular events which are preparatory to DNA production in the following S

interval. Molecular events during the G, interval are not as well understood as

those occurring inside the S and GM intervals.

A number of models have been proposed which suggest that it is in the G,

interval that the cell decides to synthesize DNA or enter a quiescent state. And it

may be at a particular development level (call it a critical point) in the G, |

interval that the decision whether or not to synthesize DNA occurs. The mecha-

nism for DNA triggering may be delocalized in space with a stochastic flavor

caused by random molecular collisions at numerous cellular sites. This may also

suggest that the critical point is spread over the G, interval with a function

describing that characteristic.

The G, time interval T , is dependent upon the nutrient environment, includ-

ing growth factors. Some research information indicates that the sequence of |

DESCRIBING CANCER CELL GROWTH | 69

events in the G, interval are related to proto-oncogenes, units of genetic infor-

mation that code for growth-factor-like proteins. Oncogenes are expressed one

after another during the cell cycle. Expression of a gene begins with the produc-

tion of a string of mRNA (messenger RNA). This suggests that protein genera-

tion results from RNA presence.

After the G, interval and before the G,M interval is the S interval during

which DNA 1s actually produced. Some consider this the most vital part of cell

life. The last interval, the G,M, constitutes the time span during which the cell

prepares for cell division, doing this by separating the DNA into two identical

copies and then physically splitting the cell.

Sometimes the cell grows and divides into two unequal sized or constituent

filled daughter cells. This is called asymmetric cytokinesis. Both RNA and pro-

tein are unequally distributed among the daughter cells. Cells which have more

RNA in the earlier part of the G, interval, which immediately follows cell

division, traverse the cell cycle faster than those that inherited less RNA. It

appears that RNA is unequally divided in a random way between daughter cells.

Formulation of Nonlinear Cellular Growth Equations

Following other work (Kimmel, 1987), it is reasonable as a first approxima-

tion to describe the linear interactions between the concentrations of RNA,

DNA, and protein by the autonomous-like equations (no explicit time depen-

dence )

— = —a,,R(t) + a,,P(t)

a = ayR(t) — ayP(t) 2)

0 (Wend Be

ae [bir )- P00 0 BR ree 4D ae (3)

0 Tate Dae = L-

Here R(t), D(t), and P(t) are respectively the RNA, DNA, and protein con-

centrations inside the cell. These equations describe the concentration changes

within the cell over time in relation to the total time T it takes for a cell mitosis or

division leading to replication. The first part of the process, taking time T,, is an

interval involving no DNA synthesis. The next interval of time, of length T,,

involves DNA synthesis. The last interval again involves no DNA synthesis.

70 KROWNE AND KROWNE

This DNA behavior reflects the widely accepted view of what occurs during

cellular growth and mitosis. Mitosis is that process whereby the cell duplicates

the genetic information to split or divide. The other cellular organelles, proteins,

and RNA are also replicated.

Coefficient a,, gives the reduction of RNA over time and a,, gives the increase

in RNA due to the ambient protein concentration P(t). Coefficient a,, gives the

increase in protein concentration due to the ambient RNA concentration R(t).

Coefficient a,, gives the reduction of protein over time.

The boundary conditions under which equations (1) through (3) are solved

are

RO) 5 (0). DO) ss (4)

RG) — FEE) DG Et by hz 1S)

Boundary conditions (4), (5) indicate that at time t = 0 the normalized concen-

trations of RNA, DNA, and protein are unity, that is, there is one cell with its

concommitment of constituents, including the required amounts of RNA,

DNA, and protein. After the period T elapses, the cell has undergone exactly one

cell division, doubling the quantity of constituents including its RNA, DNA,

and protein content. More exactly stated, just before period T, the cell has twice

as much RNA, DNA, and protein, which will be uséd to produce the two new

cells originating from the single cell in the mitotic process.

Equations (1)-—(3) may be written in a more compact and general form for T,

<= Dio as

d R(t) ain oo On) pu)

di Pe |- | din dp | P(t) | (6)

D(t) 0 a Be (0) D(t)

where T, is the translation and subtraction constant operator

TCO ae) tc) C7)

We may wish to call this system semi-autonomous because of the time transla-

tion behavior. Furthermore, the original set of equations (1 )-—(3) has the third

equation giving dD(t)/dt with different expressions in time. This amounts to an

explicit time form. Thus the original system is in reality nonautonomous. Only

in the interval T, <t < T, + T, is the system autonomous with a general form

x = f,(x) 3 (8)

where the dot above x indicates a total time derivative and u is the parameter

space vector. x is the variable space vector given by

DESCRIBING CANCER CELL GROWTH — 71

es eID AE (9)

and f, is the nonlinear operator and f,(x) is a vector. For the linear case of (6), f,

reduces to

Aye pido. «/0

feelin. ate ncaa 0 | (10)

0 0

which is a matrix operator. Clearly,

f,(x) = fx (11)

The vector representation of f,(x) is

£66 )e Lb edo tales (12)

where

f, = —a,,R(t) + a,,P(t) (13)

f, = —a,.R(t) + aP(t) (14)

fbi P(t— 1) = P60) Gilss)

We can postulate nonlinearities of a fairly general nature and modify (6)

accordingly. Writing these equations out in an open form like (1)-(3),

OD = ~ay R(t) + ay)P(t) + B,R*(t)

aby (t) Dok) P(g Glo)

oD = aR (t) — apP(t) + R(t)

TOP (1) + COR EC 117)

= bIP(t — T,) — P(0)] + BP(t — T,) — P(O)? + ++ 5

t<i,

iat, i (18)

Die to t=

For the interval T, <t < T, + T,, (16)-(18) can be put into compact form

(8) where

72 KROWNE AND KROWNE

f, = —a,,R(t) + a,,P(t) + b,R?(t) + b,P2(t) + b,R(t)P(t) + --- (19)

f, = —aj,R(t) — a,5P(t) +e; R2(t) + c5P2(t) + ep R(1t)P@)ce eee ee

f, = DIP 1) PO Bile — i Oe (21)

The Jacobian matrix operator J, on f,(x) produces the Jacobian J

af, af, af

OX) OX, 10x,

OL @ Ole OF

i= CNS ae a a (22)

OX, OX, OX;

Using the specific forms for the components of f,(x), (22) becomes

Cadi aR 2b,R =F bpP) (a, + 2b,R =F bpP) @)

(ap =e PAGERS =F €p>P) (—a,, =F 2c,R sti CP) 0 (23)

at,

Ox,

to second order in the nonlinear terms. Let us evaluate Of; /0x,

2. ae ee As 2

se eT) Pio) BP Ts

J f(x) =

0 )

Notice that equations (19) and (20) are independent of D, the DNA concen-

tration. This presumably makes sense because DNA is finally constructed from

protein P and RNA R. Thus for the system as posed, we really have a 2 X 2 sized

problem coupled to a third nonlinear equation. The 2 X 2 Jacobian J for this

system can be extracted from (23) as

Gai a 2b,R tr loyal eg)! (a, SF 2b,R =e b,>P)

(ap + 2¢,R aiGph)e (4457-426, Re eee) >)

J = Sofu(x) =

Once the 2 X 2 system is solved, the nonlinear dynamical behavior of DNA can

be found from (21).

One could also suppose, since D = f;(P) in form, that P has terms in D.

Maybe, even R has D terms. Finally, D may not be independent of R and D.

Nonlinear behavior can be determined locally by finding the fixed points of

the system, linearizing about those fixed points, and studying the stability char-

acteristics of the particular system under consideration. A fixed point x* occurs

DESCRIBING CANCER CELL GROWTH 73

x =0 (26)

so that (8) becomes

f,(x) = 0 (27)

Fixed points occur when the system variable motion is zero as (26) states. It is

possible to have only part of the variable space motion zero, in which case (26)

will only hold for those appropriate components.

x, = 0 il eke = IN (28)

where the system is N dimensional.

Linearizing (8) about the fixed point x* gives

f(x) = £,(x*) + (x eEXS POs Fe (29)

Of, (x)

x=x

Truncating this equation after the second term and noticing that the coefficient

in the second term is just the Jacobian matrix evaluated at the fixed point x*,

J = Sh) (30)

Ox aie

(29) can be written as

Eat (x io dix x) (311)

Defining a new variable y in reference to the fixed point

y = x — x* (32)

noting that (27) holds, and that

Wir (33)

we find that

y = Jy (34)

Linear solution of (34) allows the determination of the types of stability

behavior about the individual fixed points. All of the mathematics of linear

matrix analysis can be brought to bear on the solution of (34). Consider only the

two equation system first, namely, (16) and (17), (19) and (20), and (25).

Then apparently

x* = 0 (35)

is seen to be a fixed point satisfying (27) by inspection of the first five terms of

(19) and (20). By (25), the Jacobian about the fixed point x* = 0 is

74 KROWNE AND KROWNE

pass eh) eS By

“ltl aco =e ot (36)

12 22

Eigenvalues and eigenvectors can be found setting the ith eigenvector solution

for y as

Se are (a)

where y; is the ith eigenvector of y, v, the nontime part of the eigenvector, and ),

the time eigenvalue. Placing (37) into (34) gives the equation

[AI — J]v, = 0 (38)

where I is the identity matrix. A nontrivial solution to (38) only holds if

det [AI — J] = 0 (39)

Putting (36) into (39) yields

(A; + a1) — a2) th

—aj2 (A; + a9)

Eigenvalue solutions \, to (40) are

= —F(an + Ag) + stan + 9)? — 4(a4,ay. — 4281) ]'/* (41)

Because R, P, and D are real physical quantities, a,,, a,,, a5, a), must be real

also in order to make the rate of change of RNA, DNA, and protein real, as a

cursory inspection of (16) and (17) indicates.

Based upon the fact that there are two eigenvalue solutions X., let us delineate

the possible states of the system. Define

1a Fe tea + 9) (42)

(40)

BS sl(an + Ayo)? — 4(a4,A2. — ay)” (43)

where A is half the system trace and equivalently for B

B = [A? — det J]'””

where the determinant of J is found from (36) so that (41) becomes

A, =A+B (44)

Define

C= A? — det J (45)

so that B can be rewritten as

B=C!/ (46)

There are three fundamental cases. One is when

C>0 (47)

and the eigenvalues are real, meaning that the possibilities available for the

system are decay and growth. The second is when

DESCRIBING CANCER CELL GROWTH 75

C-<0 (48)

and the eigenvalues are complex, meaning that the system may be in decaying

oscillation or growing oscillation. The last case is when

Ca (49)

when the system has two degenerate eigenvalues and the system is either in

decay or growth.

Consider case (47) first. If the determinant of the Jacobian for the system is

det J >0 (50)

then (47) is satisfied when

|A| > det J >0O G1)

This places the eigenvalues in the interval

Qe = 2A (52)

and tells us that the system must be unstable in time and has what is known as an

unstable node (Scholl, 1987), 1.e., the system undergoes growth if

A>0O (53)

and the system phase space trajectories diverge from the fixed point. For the half

trace of the system being

A <0 (943)

the eigenvalues exist in the interval

>A > 2A (5)

and the system must be stable in time and has what is known as a stable node,

_ that is, the system undergoes decay and the system phase space trajectories

converge on the fixed point.

If the determinant of the Jacobian for the system is

det J < 0 (56)

then (47) is always satisfied and

Ne Sa (57)

for an unstable solution, and

, <0 (58)

for a stable solution, and the system has a saddle point, provided (53) holds. For

the half trace of the system obeying (54),

76 KROWNE AND KROWNE

Ni 2A. (59)

for a stable solution, and |

A, > 0 (60)

for an unstable solution, and the system still has a saddle point.

The second fundamental case occurs for (48) when the system is found to

possess oscillations. Equation (48) comes about when (50) holds and

A? < det J (61)

leading to a system with a stable focus if the half trace A of the system obeys

(54). The phase space trajectory of the system is a converging elliptical spiral.

The system has an angular frequency equal to

w = |Im[A,, A,]| = {det J — A?}!” (62)

and a decay or damping factor equal to

d= Re[\,,\,] =A (63)

and the two complex conjugate eigenvalues A, and i, are such that

Im[A,] = —Im[),] (64)

Re[\,]=Re[\] (65)

If the trace of the system is greater than zero obeying (53), the system has an

unstable focus and the phase space trajectory of the system is a diverging ellipti-

cal spiral.

The third fundamental case occurs for (49) causing degenerate eigenvalues

which are real and take the sign of the half trace of the system A. According to

the sign of A, see (56), an unstable or stable system node occurs.

Conclusion

We advocate the importance of a more holistic approach to cancer research.

We strongly suggest that the effort be restructured so that several critical fields

simultaneously interact and collaborate in order to develop a much more com-

prehensive program. These fields include microbiology, DNA engineering, mo-

lecular structure and crystallography, metabolic biology, nonlinear mathemat-

icS-physics-engineering, and clinical oncology. |

Because the fundamental underlying growth behavior of tumor cells is non-

linear, this paper focused on studying a particular set of equations describing the

interactions of DNA, RNA, and proteins in the context ofa linear system and its

generalization to a nonlinear system. We hope our work will lead to further

DESCRIBING CANCER CELL GROWTH la

research into nonlinear dynamics of cancer cellular growth. There have been

many studies which have dealt with the growth of cancer cell population dy-

namics from an intercellular point of view (Duchting and Vogelsaenger, 1981;

Suh and Weiss, 1984; De Boer and Hogeweg, 1986; Sluyser and Hart, 1983;

Blum, 1974; Kimmel and Axelrod, 1991; Marusic et al., 1991; Chover and

King, 1985; Merrill, 1984; Xu and Ling, 1988; Duchting and Dehl, 1980; Stein

and Stein, 1990; Diekmann et al., 1984; Lasota and Mackey, 1984), but little

work has been done to date to derive models for intracellular behavior (Free-

man and Wilson, 1990; Gallez, 1984; Brooks, 1977; Baserga, 1984; Riddle et al.,

1979; Traganos et al., 1982; Binggeli and Weinstein, 1986) which describe tu-

mor growth.

Acknowledgements

Arye Rosen, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA was particularly

helpful in pointing out the place microwave hyperthermia plays, in relation to

the suite of modalities available, in treating cancer. Dr. Donald McRae, Vincent

T. Lombardi Cancer Research Center, Depart. of Radiation Medicine, George-

town University Medical Center, provided much insight into the clinical aspects

of cancer and radiation biology. Dr. Mark Esrick, Physics Dept., Georgetown

University, provided a few relevant references on theoretical biology and en-

gaged us in several interesting discussions on nonlinear dynamics and chaos in

biological systems.

References

Baserga, R. (1984). Growth in size and cell DNA replication. Expert. Ce// Res, 151:1-5.

Binggeli, R., & Weinstein, R. C. (1986). Membrane potentials and sodium channels: hypotheses for growth

regulation and cancer formation based on changes in sodium channels and gap junctions. J Th Bio,

123:377-401. ;

Blum, H. F. (1974). Uncertainty of growth of cell populations in cancer. J Th Bio, 46:143-166.

Borok, T. L., Winter, A., Laing, J., Paglione, R., Sterzer, F., Sinclair, I., & Plafker, J. (1988). Microwave

hyperthermia radiosensitized iridium-192 for recurrent brain malignancy. Medical Dosimetry, 13:29-36.

Brooks, R. F. (1977). Continuous protein synthesis is required to maintain probability of entry into S phase.

Cell, 12:311-317.

Carr, K. L. (1991). Microwave heating in medicine. Microwave J, 34:26-36.

Carroll, T. L., & Pecora, L. M. (1991). Synchronizing chaotic circuits. IEEE Trans. Circuits Systems, 38:453-

456.

Chi, C. C., & Vanneste, C. (1990). Onset of chaos and current-voltage characteristics of rf-driven Josephson

junctions in the low-frequency regime. Phys Rev B, 42:9875-9895.

Chover, J., & King, J. H. (1985). The early growth of cancer. J Math Bio, 21:329-346.

Chua, L. O. (1984). Nonlinear Circuits. IEEE Trans. Circuits Systems, 31:69-87.

Corcoran, E. Written by staff of Scientific American. (1991). Ordering chaos. In: Science and Business,

Scientific American, 265:96-98.

De Boer, R. J., & Hogeweg, P. (1986). Interactions between macrophages and T-lymphocytes: tumor sneak-

ing through to helper T cell dynamics. J Th Bio, 120:331-351.

Diekmann, O., Heijmans, H. J. A. M., & Thieme, H. R. (1984). On the stability of cell size distribution. J

Math Bio, 19:227-248.

78 KROWNE AND KROWNE

Ditto, W. L., Spano, M. L., Savage, H. T., Rauseo, S. N., Heagy, J., & Ott, E. (1990). Experimental

observation of a strange nonchaotic attractor. Phys Rev Letts, 65:533-536.

Duchting, W., & Dehl, G. (1980). Spread of cancer cells in tissue: modeling and simulation. Int J Biomed

Comput, 11:175-195.

Duchting, W., & Vogelsaenger, Th. (1981). Three dimensional pattern generation applied to spheroidal

growth in a nutrient medium. /nt J Bio-Medical Computing, 12:377-392.

Freeman, R. A., & Wilson, J. D. (1990). A two-channel hypothesis for regulation of cell division and differen-

tiation. J Th Bio, 146:303-315.

Friedenthal, E., Mendecki, J., Botstein, C., Sterzér, F., & Paglione, R. (1984). Hyperthermia in the treatment

of local recurrence of breast cancer. Microwave J, 27:275-282.

Gallez, D. (19dd). Cell membranes after malignant transformation Part I: Dynamic stability at low surface

tension. J Th Bio, 111:323-340.

Golumbek, P. T., Lazenby, A. J., Levitsky, H. I., Jaffee, L. M., Karasuyama, H., Baker, M., & Pardoll,

D. M. N. (1991). Treatment of established renal cancer by tumor cells engineered to secrete interleukin-4.

Science, 254:713-716.

Hall, E. J. (1987). Radiobiology For The Radiologist. J. B. Lippincott, Philadelphia, Penn.

Kimmel, M. (1987). Metabolic events in the cell cycle of malignant and normal cells. In: Thompson, J. R., &

Brown, B. W. (ed.), Cancer Modeling, Marcel Dekker, New York, New York 5:215-235.

Kimmel, M., & Axelrod, D. E. (1991). Unequal cell division, growth regulation and colony size of mamma-

lian cells: mathematical model and analysis of experimental data. J Th Bio, 153:157-180.

Krowne, C. M., & Skorupka, C. W. (1992). Nonlinear dynamical behavior of fields and currents in TED’s at

microwave frequencies. In: Symmetry, Scaling, and Groups Session. URSI Radio Science Meeting Dig,

164.

Lasota, A., & Mackey, M. C. (1984). Globally asymptotic properties of proliferating cell populations. J Math

Bio, 19:43-62.

Mackey, M.C., & Milton, J. G. (1990). A deterministic approach to survival statistics. J Math Bio, 28:33-48.

Marusic, M., Bajzer, Z., Freyer, J. P., & Vuk-Pavlovic, S. (1991). Modeling autostimulation of growth in

multicellular tumor spheroids. /nt J Biomed Comput, 29:149-158.

Matsumoto, T., Chua, L. O., & Komuro, M. (1985). The double scroll. IEEE Trans. Circuits Systems, 32:798-

818.

May, R. M. (1987). Nonlinearities and complex behavior in simple ecological and epidemiological models.

In: Koslow, S. H., Mandell, A. J., and Shlesinger, M. F. (ed. conf organ.), Perspectives In Biological

Dynamics And Theoretical Medicine, Ann New York Acad Sc. :1-31.

Mendecki, J., Friedenthal, E., Botstein, C., Paglione, R., Sterzer, F. (1980). Microwave applicators for

localized hyperthermia treatment of cancer of the prostate. Int. J. Radiation Oncology Biol. Phys, 6:1583-

1588.

Merrill, S. J. (1984). Stochastic models of tumor growth and the probability of elimination by cytotoxic cells.

J Math Bio, 20:305-320.

Parker, T. S., & Chua, L. O. (1987). Chaos: A tutorial for engineers. Proc IEEE, 75:982-1008.

Pecora, L. M., & Carroll, T. L. (1991). Pseudoperiodic driving: eliminating multiple domains of attraction

using chaos. Phys Rev Letts, 67:945-948.

Riddle, V. G. H., Pardee, A. B., & Rossow, P. W. (1979). Growth control of normal and transformed cells, J

Supramolecular Struct, 11:529-538. |

Rosen, R. (1991). Breast Cancer: An ignored epidemic. U C Davis Magazine, 8:17.

Scholl, E. (1987). Nonequilibrium Phase Transitions in Semiconductors. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.

Scholl, E., & Hupper, G. M. (1991). Dynamic hall effect as a mechanism for self-sustained oscillations and

chaos in semiconductors. Phys Rev Letts, 66:2372-2375.

Skorupka, C. W., Krowne, C. M., & Pecora, L. M. (1991). Strange nonchaotic behavior in a microwave TED

stimulation. /st Experimental Chaos Conf Dig, 69:

Sluyser, M., & Hart, G. (1983). Calculation of percentage of hormone independent transplantable cells in

experimental mammary tumors. J 7h Bio, 100:701-707.

Stein, W. C., & Stein, A. D. (1990). Testing and characterizating the two-stage model of carcinogenesis for a

wide range of human cancers. J Th Bio, 145:95-122.

Suh, O., & Weiss, L. (1984). The development of a technique for the morphometric analysis of invasion in

cancer. J Th Bio, 107:547-561.

Tomsovic, S., & Heller, E. J. (1991). Semiclassical dynamics of chaotic motion: unexpected long-time accu-

racy. Phys Rev Letts, 67:664—-667.

Traganos, F., Darzynkiewics, Z., & Melamed, M. R. (1982). The ratio of RNA to total nucleic acid content as

a quantitative measure of unbalanced cell growth. Cytometry, 2:212-218.

Wallis, C. (1991). A puzzling plague. Time, 137:48-52.

West, B. J. (1990). Fractal Physiology and Chaos In Medicine. Studies of Nonlinear Phenomena in Life

Science. World Scientific, 1:288.

Xu, X., & Ling, Y. (1988). A study on the expectational model for tumor growth. Int. J. Biomed., 22:135-141.

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences,

Volume 82, Number 2, Pages 79-109, June 1992

How Seriously is the US AIDS

Population Understated?

Carl M. Harris, Edward Rattner, Clifton Sutton

Department of Operations Research and Applied Statistics, George Mason University,

Fairfax, Virginia 22030

August 14, 1992

ABSTRACT

The work documented in this paper is an attempt at a realistic assessment of the true flow

of AIDS cases entering the health-care system of the United States. Understatement in the

numbers of AIDS diagnoses clearly causes serious problems for policy makers and analysts

trying to understand the scope of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. From the perspective of the

modeler and data analyst, the major problems would appear to result from /ags in the

reporting and nonresponse. Our focus is therefore on the development of approaches for

dealing with these problems. The major source of input data for our analysis is the nation-

wide database of the CDC.

Despite the fact that the United States and the world are struggling to deal with HIV/

AIDS. Yet, to date, there has been little agreement on the level and the sweep of the epi-

demic. We believe that much of this confusion results from the very nature of the disease,

from how affected people and the medical community have been responding, and, most

importantly, from the manner in which HIV/AIDS data are collected and become available

to the public over time.

Most specifically, all such HIV/AIDS forecasting systems must convert reported AIDS

cases back in time into a flow of HIV cases using what is often called backcalculation or

backcasting. The systematic understatement of AIDS cases by year of diagnosis, however,

compromises the very quality of the main statistical input stream for the analysis systems. In

order to use such data in a valid way, there must be some sort of rational means for correcting

underestimates of data and trends caused by reporting delays. Furthermore, it is well ac-

cepted that some data are likely never to be captured at all by the national reporting system,

although the medical needs of this hidden subpopulation will still burden the health-care

system.

Our work, then, focuses on the development of rational procedures for analyzing lags in

data reporting and the subsequent development of a suggested model for extrapolating

current AIDS statistics into a more useful data series. This is accomplished by applying

multiple regression and goodness-of-fit techniques to the CDC data. In addition, a subgroup

analysis is performed to determine what effect the shifting composition of the HIV+ popula-

tion might have on future trends. We also examine the related question of underreporting.

Introduction

There are already strong indications that the HIV/AIDS epidemic will de-

velop steeper growth levels in the period 1992-94, and will continue such in-

80 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

creases for the subsequent several years. The CDC has projected 58,000 to

85,000 new cases of AIDS for 1992 (CDC Centers for Disease Control, 1990b;

Centers for Disease Control, 1990c). There have also been, of course, numerous

estimates of the total size of the HIV-positive population. For example, (Don-

dero Jr. et al., 1987) provided an estimate in 1987 of 1 to 1.5 million. The CDC’s

own estimates have been for approximately 750,000 by January 1986; approxi-

mately 1 million by June/July 1989; and still 1 million by December 1991

(Centers for Disease Control, 1990b; Centers for Disease Control, 1990c;

Centers for Disease Control, 1992a). Additional discussions on key CDC meth-

odological issues are in (Brookmeyer and Gail, 1988; Centers for Disease Con-

trol, 1989b; Centers for Disease Control, 1990a; and Centers for Disease Con-

trol, 1992b).

The original objective of our project beginning in 1988 was the development

of an innovative approach to the problem of forecasting the pace of the HIV/

AIDS epidemic. In part, this stemmed from the Dondero et al. 1987 assessment

which sought firmer estimates/forecasts of prevalence and incidence (Dondero

Jr. et al., 1987) and successive parallel statements emerging from the 1988

Leesburg Workshop (Office of Science and Technology Policy, 1988), as well as

from the more recent report of the October 1989 CDC Workshop (Centers for

Disease Control, 1990c). However, all of these key conferences over the years

have led neither to a consensus nor to a resolution of conflicting concepts among

the participants of how to reconcile outstanding issues. Our forecasts and model

development work are most completely documented in (Harris et al., 1992).

No matter what approach seems in favor at any time, there are major method-

ological problems still open. We do not think that any of those active in this

problem area were surprised at the strong criticism by the GAO of the quality of

the major forecasting systems in June 1989 (General Accounting Office, 1989),

even if one might differ with some of the specifics in that report. Through all of

this, it appears that there is a persistent problem of converting CDC’s reported

data to a more accurate picture of the status and evolution of the epidemic. The

most profound issues revolve around the well recognized problems of lags in

reporting and complete nonresponse (see, for example, CDC (Centers for Dis-

ease Control, 1990c), Table 4).

For example, questions of estimating HIV prevalence and incidence from

prevailing data sources were the subjects of (Heyward and Curran, 1988; Curran

et al., 1988; and Trafford, 1988). In addition, an Israeli paper by (Siegman-Igra

et al., 1988) revealed some universal aspects of HIV/AIDS compromising the

quality of data extrapolation, such as the role of mobility in the spread of the

disease and possible AIDS longevity variations between various risk groups.

In our studies, the cohorts have been time-based, and the focus of our work

has been on projecting a time series that would anticipate the historical data

US AIDS POPULATION . 81

series evolving for the epidemic over the coming decades. Our analysis begins

from CDC reports of AIDS cases, from which we éstimate the sizes of emerging

morbidity-cohorts for each of the years of the US experience with the epidemic,

thus the name Cohort Cascade for this major part of our modeling system. From

the estimated development of the disease, we follow the progress of each annual

_ cohort through the range of years of interest, and then aggregate the individual

cohorts into an annual dataset of the expected numbers in various stages of

illness for each of the years to the turn of the century. We have already made

some first attempts at critical data adjustments, largely based on preliminary

analyses of lags in reporting and on nonresponse. It is precisely because of our

evolving attention to these data issues that we have prepared this current paper.

The Walter Reed Institute of Medicine has formulated a series of stages to

describe the progression of the disease (Brodt et al., 1986; Cowell and Hoskins,

1987; Redfield et al., 1986; Society of Actuaries, 1989). The first stage (abbre-

viated as HIV+) refers to the initial asymptomatic phase during most of which

the patient is in apparent good health. This is followed by the LAS (Lymph

Adenopathy Syndrome) stage which includes symptoms of lymph system dys-

function, and then by the ARC (AIDS-Related Complex) stage which includes a

specific set of additional ailments of greater severity. Finally, AIDS (Acquired

ImmunoDeficiency Syndrome) is the terminal stage of HIV illness and is

marked by an additional set of opportunistic diseases, one of which is associated

with the patient’s death. Remember throughout this work the important dis-

tinctions between onset of HIV-positivity and the ultimate transition into

AIDS.

Other staging classifications are in use, e.g., based on T4 lymphocyte counts.

These staging categories have not yet played an important role in forecasting

system development; instead, they serve the same functions that any categorical

structure serves in statistical analysis and reporting, as entity identifiers.

Nonreporting of AIDS cases, intentional or not, is a particularly important

- problem in estimates and projections of the epidemic. The findings of a study on

the increased level of reporting of pneumonia deaths among younger adults

indicated that many AIDS cases have been erroneously attributed to pneumonia

(Stoneburner et al., 1988; and New York Times, 1988). More on this matter

later.

Designing An HIV/AIDS Prevalence And Incidence Model

An effective modeling system for understanding the societal impact of HIV/

AIDS should provide several types of projections:

@ National estimates of HIV death by year and by risk category;

82 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

@ National estimates of HIV morbidity, detailed by year, by risk category, and by stage;

and

@ The national (and local) resources (dollars, hospital days, physician-times, etc.) re-

quired by HIV demands, detailed by year, by risk category, and by stage.

The essential components of the incidence and prevalence portion of this

modeling system would consist of two major linked sequential parts:

1. an Infection Model, which would generate the estimated annual (newly-infected)

cohort for each year, 1976 to the present and for several future years. Such a model

would estimate what type of person (and how many of that type) would move from

HIV-negative to HIV-positive during a given span of time (e.g., the number of male

heterosexuals who acquired HIV in 1989; the number of female [VDUs who will

acquire HIV in 1993; etc.)

2. a Progression Model for translating the time cohort estimated by the Infection

Model and its disaggregated major risk groups into specific levels of morbidity and

mortality over time. The Progression Model would use estimated experience proba-

bilities to obtain a plausible description of an annual HIV+ cohort’s movement

through the several morbidity stages.

The driving element of such a structure would be the number of newly in-

fected (HIV-positive) persons in a given year, the infectivity base. When a per-

son contracts the virus, a biological clock affecting his or her immunity system

begins to tick; while the incubation times are recognized to vary greatly among

individuals, each infected person is assumed to pass through each of several

stages that have been defined by medical researchers.

The precise dataset for HIV/AIDS prevalence and incidence we have devel-

oped required the following techniques and assumptions:

1. Estimating the expected size of the newly infected HIV population for each year

from 1976-86 by backcalculation using reporting lag-correction factor (i.e., numer-

ical adjustments for data bias due to severe lateness in case reporting), without

which the size of the seropositive population (past and future) would be systemati-

cally and greatly understated;

2. Projecting annual growth rates for the HIV-infected population for the years 1986

through 1995 by a log-linear smoothing; and

3. Application of a nonresponse or hidden-case adjustment factor of 25% (which can

be readily changed to any higher or lower assumed nonresponse level).

Our modeling system is an aggregated one. Ideally, however, each of the

newly-infected cohorts should be amenable to disaggregation. Each year’s newly

infected (time-) cohort contains an increasingly heterogeneous population. Ini-

tially, the overwhelming majority of HIV/AIDS seropositive were male and gay.

In recent years, IV Drug Users and heterosexuals have become larger propor-

tions of the newly-reported AIDS cases. Increasingly, [VDUs have begun to

exceed Gays/Bi-s among new AIDS cases being reported in several states.

The HIV+ cohort for a given year, the general aggregate number of that year’s

newly-infected HIV cases, is a major element in estimating stage incidence levels

US AIDS POPULATION ; 83

in subsequent years. The desegregated risk groups, subcohorts, are an even more

meaningful statistical entity, since they can be the basis for estimating shifts

among key demographic groups (particularly the gays, [VDUs, and heterosex-

uals), by ultimately using a more complete Markov chain model. Undetected

compensating shifts within the aggregate HIV+ cohort can obscure important

behavioral changes among the key risk groups.

Infectivity Issues and Backcalculation

Remember that there are no data for the HIV cohort sizes in 1976, 1977, and

succeeding years. Our Cohort Cascade structure provides a feasible basis for

estimating those cohorts, but it is just one of a number of potential approaches

for approximating incidence and prevalence through the years. However, such

modeling systems necessarily start from data inputs on AIDS onset. Our model,

just as many others, recreate the flow of new HIV cases through a range of years

by backcalculation, which employs an estimate of the natural history of the

progression of HIV/AIDS working in reverse from estimated numbers of new

AIDS cases. Movement through the various stages of HIV disease is assumed to

be linearly proportional to stage-population size.

In addition to the staged proportionality of the Cohort Cascade portion of our

model, we assume that infection is spread at a (piecewise) constant rate. That is

to say, if the cumulative total number of surviving infectees by the beginning of

year t is represented by N(t) and the number of deaths in year t by D(t), then the

net increase of cumulative infected people in year t would be

Mt + 1)- MO = aMD -— DO (1)

NG) Sexe allIN(@) =D): (2)

' Henceforth, we say that a, is the growth rate or “multiplier” for year t; we do

permit some of the {a,} to be equal for purposes of illustration.

In the years, 1976 to 1988, starting with ‘“‘one” infected individual, an annual

constant growth rate of about 2.5 would have produced a cumulative total of

about 3.38 million infected persons by the start of 1988. But if the epidemic

started among an ultra-high risk group within the homosexual community, then

spread to the remaining (lesser-high-risk) homosexual males, the growth rate in

the first few years must have been considerably higher (than 2.5) with an implied

lower subsequent growth rate, particularly as the awareness of the cause and

deadliness of the disease emerged. That set of facts and assumptions is the basis

for a surrogate infection model.

84 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

The estimation of the growth of the infected population (the “‘survivors’’, or

total of the subpopulations in each of the stages) is the vital estimating factor in

all estimation of HIV/AIDS; the infection model (using the multiplier measure)

is the pivotal input to the progression model. A model responsive to this sce-

nario would start with a very high growth rate level, which would lessen year-by-

year within the homosexual community, then track the passage of the epidemic

into the heterosexual population to estimate the number of US HIV seroposi-

tives. Our actual estimates are derived using linear programming, with a full

discussion of the procedure found in (Harris et al., 1992).

Estimation of HIV populations and time-cohorts is, therefore, anchored in

two major factual sets of data, the progression factors and AIDS-onset data

(AIDS-onset: the year that an HIV patient transitions into the AIDS stage).

AIDS-onset data have been reported regularly by CDC in earlier years in the

AIDS Weekly Surveillance Report (AWSR, Table G) and currently in the HIV/

AIDS (Monthly, now Quarterly) Surveillance Report (HSR), and the progres-

sion factors can be estimated from the several cohort studies of seropositives (for

example, see Cowell and Hoskins, 1987).

Backcalculating Past Cohort Sizes from Annual New-AIDS Cases Reported

How do these new-AIDS cases relate to infectivity? The key of our infection

model are the values of the {a,}. Equations (1) and (2) may be manipulated to

yield

_Mt+1)-NO+ DO)

Oy NO) (3)

It is clear that if the values of the {N(t)} and the {D(t)} are known accurately,

then the {a,} can be easily determined. However, there is even more uncertainty

about the year-by-year size of the seropositive population than there is about the

yearly counts of the number of people who have reached the AIDS stage. There-

fore the above expression for a, is not all that useful.

Since it is not feasible to determine the {a,} directly using the {N(t)}, is

desirable to estimate the unknown values of the multipliers using the more

reliable counts of the number of people with AIDS. This can be done by exploit-

ing the fact that, according to our conjecture, the yearly number of new AIDS

cases is related to the sizes of the HIV+ cohorts via the proposed progression

model. One way of doing this applies AIDS-to-COHORT equations in a back-

calculation mode.

If AIDS numbers were perfectly reported and if the probability structure we

US AIDS POPULATION 85

Table 1.—Infected-Population Multiplier Estimates

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 a 1983 1984 1985

Peo 4.07 72 1.36 0.85 0.70 0.55 0.45 0.37 0.32

assume for disease progression were also precise, then we would be able to write

down a simultaneous system of linear equations in yearly cohort sizes, with the

reported numbers of new AIDS cases on the right-hand side. To get the exact

coefficients of such linear equations, we would begin from an assumption that

the typical HIV case was infected on a given day. Defining that event as the start

of Year | (and conclusion of Year 0) of that individual’s HIV-infection, that

person’s probability of AIDS-onset is set in Cohort Cascade as .022 by the end of

Year 3. Stated in equivalent terms, according to the factors of the Frankfurt

study, a cohort of 1000 is expected to have 22 members develop AIDS by the

end of 36 months, 1.e., the end of Year 3. By the end of the next year (Year 4),

Cohort Cascade estimates that an additional 109 members will display AIDS,

leaving 869 members AIDS-free by the end of Year 4; and so on.

Infection Multipliers

Each sequence of new AIDS cases relative to the unfolding numbers of sero-

conversions creates a set of infection multipliers. The pattern of these multi-

pliers determines the estimated growth of the epidemic in the future, and, in-

deed, a major test of any HIV/AIDS modeling system is its ability to estimate

these numbers well. We display in Table | the multipliers generated by the use of

our linear-programming model applied to the CDC dataset of October 1990.

The first major observation from Table | is that the multiplier pattern has

been monotone decreasing and convex since the early years of 1976 and 1977

when little was known about the disease. The pattern passed through the mid-

40% range in 1983, when IVDUs became a significantly larger element of the

newly-infected population. Since the IVDU subpopulation has been observed to

be the most difficult to reach and seemingly the least amenable to behavioral

changes, the declining multiplier rate is believed to be in a slowing rate of decline

for the years after 1985.

The work of (May and Anderson, 1987) contains a related approach to the

estimate of infection spread. They calculated a growth rate of 1.0 as the result of

a serologically based approximate doubling of the epidemic in San Francisco

and New York within 10-11 months over the period 1978-1980. The multi-

pliers we have settled on for our work (by backcasting estimation) are approxi-

86 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

mately 1 for both 1979 and 1980. However, we do believe that the numbers had

to be considerably higher (originally, likely 2—3) in the years 1976 and 1977 in

order to boost the epidemic during that time (i.e., doubling was much quicker in

the very early days). The year 1978 is a kind of boundary year (in the sense that

prior years provided insufficient cases to permit statistical precision), and is

often the base from which to calculate forward estimates of multipliers, as it is

for May and Anderson’s approach. But, we repeat, the ability to estimate disease

spread is very much dependent on the manipulation of current data sources and

the resultant extrapolations that they require.

Methodological and Validation Issues

Caveats, Confounding, and Data Biases

Through it all, it seems very clear that there are two major data issues which

must be handled carefully when using AIDS reports, namely, lagged reporting of

both cases and deaths, and nonresponse. For example, every month in 1991, the

CDC reported as “new cases” not only 1991 AIDS cases but also cases diagnosed

in 1990, in 1989, and earlier years. The most recent years are always the most

underreported. One effect of this lagged reporting is to give an illusion of “‘trend-

washout” in the uncorrected data. That is, the real trend level, which shows a

consistent increase each year, 1s most significantly affected by a damping bias in

the recent years.

Nonreporting is recognized also as a significant bias, since HIV and AIDS

infectees are stigmatized in life as well as death. Denials of AIDS during the final

months of life characterized the cases of several notables in recent years. Report-

ing in a number of cities reviewed by CDC indicates a higher-than-expected

incidence of pneumonia deaths among younger adults, which implies that the

opportunistic disease, and not AIDS, may be on the death report in many cases

(Stoneburner et al., 1988; and New York Times, 1988).

Suicides during the latter stages of HIV are another likely source of misclassi-

fied HIV cases. Also, pre-AIDS deaths (e.g., ARC-related) would not appear in

the AIDS reports, although they are HIV-related.

There are also some confounding elements in analyzing time-based cohorts.

One such problem is the mobility (both travel and migration) of seropositives

across regional and national boundaries. The mobility of homosexuals has been

documented (e.g., see Siegman-Igra et al., 1988) as speeding the dispersion of

HIV throughout the world. In estimating the growth of the epidemic, how

should one handle the travel of seropositive, that is those already infected, from

one locale to another? If a homosexual who acquires HIV in San Francisco

returns home to Kansas City, is he then part of Kansas City’s AIDS growth?

US AIDS POPULATION 87

Alternatively, does that mean that San Francisco’s AIDS growth has declined

slightly? The National Opinion Research Center (New York Times, 1989a) has

concluded that there is a great underreporting of Midwest cases, and suggests

that it is a combination of avoidance (primarily by affluent whites) and a misat-

tribution of Midwestern cases to either coast. This indicates that state and re-

gional estimates will be subject to greater relative error than national projec-

tions.

Another, subtler, bias or dual-confounding factor is the outcome of an ex-

tended set of AIDS-determinant factors. These factors were supplemented in

late 1987 and were scheduled again for additional factors in 1993. This has the

effect of shifting the mean AIDS-onset “discovery” date to an earlier point, thus

leading to two misperceptions, the mean AIDS incubation period will now

appear to be shorter and the mean AIDS longevity will appear to be longer.

While other causes may truly shorten the AIDS incubation mean (e.g., inclusion

of other groups, women, children, etc.) or may truly increase AIDS longevity

(e.g., AZT, earlier start of healthcare, etc.), the extended-set bias should be

accounted for and factored out.

The introduction of intervention therapy to the HIV/AIDS population brings

a potential bias to the estimates and projections of this model. Cohort Cascade is

based on distributions for stages and years which derive from the natural history

of the HIV/AIDS virus. PreAIDS intervention lengthens the time-in-stage for

the seropositive, particularly those in the ARC stage. Intervention therapy after

the onset of AIDS has been suggested as deferring death for about seven months,

from 14 months to 21 months (Lemp et al., 1990).

There are some limitations on the impact of these treatments, however.

Firstly, not all patients are able to tolerate the treatments. Secondly, cost and

other considerations have make them available to only a fraction of those who

could benefit from their application. Thirdly, since AZT on any significant scale

was not made generally available until about 1987, the beneficial impact of

‘Intervention therapy would be applicable primarily to two subpopulations, the

ARC and AIDS patients, respectively about 30% of the HIV/AIDS population.

Assuming that tolerance and availability will reduce that to about 10% of the

HIV/AIDS population, one means of minimizing the bias in using natural

history distribution solely is to create alternative cohorts with modified ARC

and AIDS stage distributions reflecting the new extended-life findings.

Lag Correction

We are certainly not the first research team to worry about making correc-

tions in data before utilizing them in the exercise of a modeling system. The

| |

papers by (Karon et al., 1988; Karon et al., 1989) discussed several methods for

adjusting for lags in reported information, the Karon et al. Table 1 in (Karon et

al., 1989) depicted data for 1984-1988 by quarters before and after adjustment.

We derived our first empirical formula for lag correction, namely, [1 + (1/m)]?

(i.e., at a point in time m months after the date of diagnosis, the expected |

number of cases to be logged for that month ultimately would be the current )

number being reported by the CDC multiplied by [1 + (1/m)]? (see Harris et al., |

1992). That is, data in the June 1991 CDC report for the half-year ending June

1990 would have a value of m = 12, while m = 18 in the December 1991 CDC

report for the same June 1990 data. That is, m equals the number of months ina

given CDC report since the half-year data were “closed-out.”’

We did estimates for this 1984-88 period; the Karon et al. table 1 data are

comparable to ours. Table 1/Cohort Cascade comparisons are: for 1984 AIDS

(6019/6058), 1985 AIDS (11285/11297), 1986 AIDS (18590/18416), and for

1987 AIDS (27694/27502). (Later in this paper, we offer a detailed analysis of a

more complete analysis of lag correction and the resultant development of a new

set of correction factors.)

(Brookmeyer and Damiano, 1989) also developed a set of adjustment factors;

when the three sets of factors are compared, you get (Karon et al./Cohort Cas-

cade/Brookmeyer & Damiano) for 4-6 months old data (1.33/1.36/1.39), 7-9

months (1.24/1.23/1.22), 10-12 months (1.19/1.17/1.15), 13-15 months (1.16/

1.14/1.11), 6-18 months (1.13/1.11/1.08), 19-21 months (1.11/1.10/1.07), and

22-24 months (1.10/1.08/1.05).

We have used our empirical adjustment factor, [1 + (1/m)]?, applied the

progression rates derived from the natural history data of the Frankfurt study

and the Cowell and Hoskins paper to structure our set of simultaneous equa-

tions, 1.e., our backcasting/backcalculation model. That model has produced

estimates for each annual cohort-population of HIV-infectees. Each cohort’s

distribution through the successive HIV stages in each of the years following

infection is aggregated to develop the ultimate dataset, a tabulation of cases by

stage for the years 1976-93. There is an extrapolation component in the method

used for the years beyond 1986, but it is an extrapolation based on the annual

infectivity rates (i.e., the multipliers), and not on the annual newly diagnosed

AIDS cases. 7

Cohort Cascade’s (old) lag-correction formula (as discussed above), applied to

all past reported cohorts of annual new AIDS cases, provides more accurate

estimates of AIDS cohorts. The actual results of these sorts of calculations on

past published (e.g., in July 1987 and November 1988) AIDS cohorts estimated

that they would increase through time as shown in Table 2.

88 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

US AIDS POPULATION 89

Table 2.—Validation of Lag-Correction Projections

Date Original First

Year of Data CDC CohCasc 2/90 CDC Percentage

Cohort Publ’d Data Lag-C Update Difference

1984 7/87 5619 5972 5837 2.31%

1985 7/87 9756 10743 10867 —1.14%

1986 7/87 13583 17277 17601 —1.84%

1987 11/88 23771 27502 25863 6.34%

Further support for our preliminary approach was offered by noting how

(in Table 3) our (old) factors compared to the delay experience expected by the

CDC (Centers for Disease Control, 1989a, Table 4). However, it is, of course,

quite possible that both CDC and Cohort Cascade are using the wrong factors. It

has therefore been a major target of our current work to examine this whole

matter much more carefully, and the results of our investigation are found

below in the “Construction ” section. One of our findings is a revision of Cohort

Cascade’s lag-correction factors to a new set, Lag-Correction II: 3.3, 2.4, 2.1, 1.6,

1.4, which would replace line 3 of Table 3. The significance of these new factors

is that they suggest a far greater impact on estimates of incidence, prevalence

and trends for HIV/AIDS. More on this latter issue will be discussed in the

“Concluding Remarks” section.

More On Backcalculation/Backcasting

No matter what approach is used in a modeling system for calculating back-

wards in time, it is necessary to establish a database of past populations from

which further analysis can append subsequent HIV cohorts. It should be kept in

mind that the progression factors of the Frankfurt study may in time be dis-

placed by later studies of HIV natural histories. In such case, the new progres-

sion factors would be used to generate new projections. The Frankfurt factors

were derived from a gay population; it would be desirable for subsequent pro-

gression factors to be subpopulation specific, e.g., a set of gay progression fac-

tors, another for [VDUs, and another for heterosexuals.

It should be kept in mind that although we are analyzing AIDS reporting

issues applying some degree of mathematical sophistication, the definition of

Table 3.—Comparison of Lag-Correction Factors (CDC vs. Cohort Cascade)

Months after diagnosis: 1 22 3 6 12

(CDC) Approx. formula: 3) // Well 17, 1.4 1

(CohCasc) Lag-Correction I: 4.0 223 1.8 1.4 1.2

90 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

what constitutes an AIDS case is subject to medically subjective modifications

imposed by administrative decisions (e.g., definitional changes to the criteria-set

of indicator diseases or symptoms, particularly in the Fall of 1987). The 1987

changes introduced several additional AIDS-indicator criteria.

The expected result of the enhanced criteria-set was a “blip’”’, or sudden in-

crease in the trend, which could expect a counterbalancing dip subsequently as

the cases which were generated by the several new criteria move up in time for

an earlier diagnosis. That is, these cases would indeed have been in later time

included as they met one of the pre-1987 criteria. But having moved up, they

depleted the stream of the later cases, which would result in a sparsity of candi-

date cases for later transition into the AIDS population. We do, however, believe

that our analyses of lags and underreporting, as documented later in this paper,

are compromised only to a very minor degree by these questions, primarily

because these data discontinuities are smoothed out over time.

Our linear-programming method for backcalculation is actually dual in func-

tion: it establishes a past history of the HIV epidemic’s growth through 1986,

and it sets a bases for projecting infectivity multipliers to the years 1987 through

1993 and beyond. The past time series of multipliers, 1976-86, leads us to a

consideration of the pattern for 1986 and beyond. If the pattern of decline

continues, then the eight years 1986-93 would have infectivity multipliers de-

clining gradually to about 12%. If the pattern levels off, the multipliers would

instead average about 20%. Since we know that IVDUs are becoming a larger

segment of the new AIDS cases, we might expect the multipliers to level-out to

about a 20% average rate currently and in the near-future. Most analysts appear

to accept the argument for a continuing, variable decline in the annual, aggre-

gated infectivity rate through 1993 and beyond; but there is no consensus as to

expected rate. In the end, the reliability of agreed-upon lag-correction factors

will likely give all of us a better picture of how the epidemic will truly spread

through the rest of this decade, particularly in light of the increasing focus on

ameliorative therapies.

Construction Of A More Rigorous Lag Correction Function

The distribution of lags between the time of the diagnosis of AIDS and the

time at which the case is reported to the CDC can be used to obtain an estimate

of the number of cases that will ultimately be attributed to a specific diagnosis

date. For instance, suppose it is known that 40% of all cases which will eventu-

ally be attributed to a given month of diagnosis have been logged at the CDC at

the end of a two month period following the diagnosis month. Then, if N(2)

US AIDS POPULATION 91

cases have been ascribed to the given month of diagnosis at the completion of

the two month period following that month, the number of cases which wil]

ultimately be attributed to the month is simply

N(2)/0.40 = 2.50 - M(2).

In general, if the proportion of cases which have been reported within m months

following a given month is F(m), and if N(m) is the number of cases which are

known at that time, then the total number of cases which will eventually be

reported for that date is given by

Noo) = Mm)/F(m).

That is, the inverse of the cumulative distribution can be used as a multiplicative

lag correction factor. ,

_ The preceding expression for N (00) is not useful unless F(m) is known, and

unfortunately there is no way to directly observe or measure the distribution

function since

F(m) = Nm)/N(co)

depends on the unknown value N(co). However, by noticing and exploiting

some key patterns in the available data one can develop a plausible approxima-

tion to F(m). In this section, we will describe a step-by-step procedure for con-

structing an estimate of the distribution function for the reporting lags, and the

formula obtained from the method will be compared to the (implicit) estimates

of the lag distribution reported by the (Centers for Disease Control, 1989a),

Table 4.

Exploratory Analysis

The raw data on which the following analysis is based consists of the lags

‘corresponding to all reported AIDS cases which have been attributed to the

years 1982, 1983,. . ., 1988. A lag is taken to belong to the interval (0, 1] if the

case was reported to the CDC in the same month it was diagnosed or in the

following month. If a case isn’t logged at the CDC until the second full month

following the month of diagnosis, the lag is ascribed to the interval (1,2], and in

general a case which is reported in the kth full month following the diagnosis

month is assigned to (k — 1,k].

The data utilized for our work are the number of observed lags corresponding

to cases diagnosed in 1988 for the intervals (0,1], (1,2], . . . , (29, 30], the

number of observed lags corresponding to cases diagnosed in 1987 for the inter-

vals (0,1), (1,2],. . .,(41,42], and the number of observed lags corresponding to

92 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

Table 4.— Various Ratios of the Cumulative Distributions of Lags for 1982-88 Indicating the Shapes of the

Conditional Distributions for Lags No Greater than 30

Condit. distr. 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988

F(6)/F(30) 0.769 0.834 0.819 0.788 0.721 0.711 0.742

F(12)/F(30) 0.907 0.926 0.925 0.892 0.817 0.849 0.851

F(18)/F(30) 0.965 0.963 0.967 0.936 0.896 0.923 0.922

F(24)/F(30) 0.985 0.984 0.984 0.964 0.961 0.965 0.969

cases diagnosed in 1986 for the intervals (0,1], (1,2],. . ., (53,54]. The counts

for intervals up to and including (65,66] for 1985, (77, 78] for 1984, (89,90] for

1983, and (95,96] for 1982 were also used. The data came from the CDC data

base as reported through the second quarter of 1991. Consequently, even though

some lags for the 1988 cases are reported in intervals up to (41,42], only the

figures for the intervals through (29,30] represent complete counts. (For exam-

ple, a December 1988 diagnosis having a lag greater than 30 months would not

have been included in the second quarter 1991 CDC data base.) Thus, here we

will only make use of intervals which are complete, and we wili not employ

projected counts for intervals to which additional cases may eventually be

added.

Even though the cumulative distribution for the lags cannot be directly ob-

served, one can learn something about the general shape of the lag distribution

by examining the conditional distribution of all observed lags which are less

than or equal to a certain value. For instance, of all the lags under consideration

which belong to intervals up to (29,30], roughly 60% of them lie in the lowest

three intervals. This fact, along with other information about the general shape

of the distribution which can be gleaned from table 4, indicates that the distribu-

tion of the lags is highly skewed with the distribution mean and median both

being relatively small compared to some of the larger lag values contained in the

data.

Table 4 displays various values of the cumulative distribution for lags belong-

ing to intervals up to (29,30] for the cohort years 1982-1988. While there are

some similarities amongst the displayed values, particularly when values from

adjacent years are compared, it is clear that the distribution of lags is not the

same for each of the years, since if that were the case then along each row the

displayed values would be identical.

Additional insight pertaining to the lag distributions can be obtained by look-

ing at values of other ratios of the cumulative distributions. (Note that since

_ Nom,)/N(oo)

N(m )/N(co)

doesn’t depend on the unknown value of N(co), one can easily obtain the values

of various ratios of the distribution functions even though the function values

F(m,)/F(m,) = Mm,)/N(m,)

US AIDS POPULATION : 93

Table 5.—Various Ratios of the Cumulative Distributions of Lags for 1982-88

Ratio 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988

F(6)/F(12) 0.848 0.900 0.885 0.883 0.883 0.837 0.872

f(12)/f(18) 0.939 0.962 0.957 0.953 0.912 0.920 0.923

F(18)/F(24) 0.980 0.978 0.983 0.971 0.933 0.956 0.951

F(24)/F(30) 0.985 0.984 0.984 0.964 0.961 0.965 0.969

F(30)/F(36) 0.985 0.986 0.986 0973 0.978 0.976

F(36)/F(42) 0.992 0.988 0.984 0.977 0.983 0.985

F(42)/F(48) 0.991 0.989 0.983 0.986 0.986

F(48)/F(54) 0.980 0.982 0.984 0.988 0.990

F(54)/F(60) - 0.962 0.987 0.991 0.989

F(60)/F(66) 0.970 0.979 0.991 0.992

F(66)/F(72) 0.967 0.990 0.992

F(72)/F(78) 0.971 0.991 0.994

cannot be observed.) Table 5 contains the values of certain ratios of the cumula-

tive distributions for the years 1982-1988. One can see that the values along any

of the rows are not identical, which indicates that the lag distributions are not the

same for all of the years. However, one can note that there is a degree of similar-

ity between row values of adjacent years, and that in some cases groups of three

or more values in a row appear to be clustered around a central value.

For each year, the observed pattern of the distribution ratios can, for the most

part, be closely matched by fitting a function of the form

m+a

Benin Song (4)

Functions of the form

An) (5)

1 + a/m + B/m?*

can also be fit to yield a good degree of agreement with the observed values. It

should be noted that the preceding approximation formulas are very compatible

‘with the data in the upper tail of the cohort distributions, but they are not

uniformly accurate and tend to be rather loose in their agreement with the

observed data in the first dozen or so intervals.

Fitting The Distributions And Estimating Cohort Sizes

The next step in construction an approximation to the cumulative distribu-

tion of the lags is to obtain estimates of N(co) for each of the cohort years. Such

estimates can then be used with the observed counts for the completed intervals

to arrive at estimates of the cumulative distributions for each of the cohort years.

For the 1988 data, fits of (4) and (5) were obtained by estimating the unknown

94 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

parameter a and 6 using the method of minimum y,?. The intervals (0,12],

(12,13], 13,14], 14,15],. . .,(29,30] were employed and conditional probabil-

ities were used since we had no data from the extreme upper tail of the distribu-

tion. The decision of not breaking the initial interval (0,12] up into smaller

intervals was based on a desire to place more emphasis on the trend of observed

values in the upper tail of the distribution. This is compatible with the goal of

accurately estimating F(30) so that the value of N(co) for 1988 can be estimated

with N(30)/F(30), where F(30) is the estimate of F(30) obtained using minimum

x? estimates of a and @. Since the observed interval counts indicate that (4) and

(5) will provide reasonable fits in the upper tail, but not necessarily in the lower

portion of the distribution, utilizing the larger interval (0,12] will allow a good

approximation to be found even though the fitted function may be somewhat

incompatible with the data from the initial monthly counts.

Fits of (4) and (5) were also performed for the 1985, 1986, and 1987 cohorts,

in each case using (0,12] as the first interval and then using all of the complete

monthly counts. For each of the years 1985-88, fits of (4) and (5) were also done

using the interval sets

(O, Ke BS CK Seeks Sali | CK lie KS NO per tee

(Ko 2. Ke een

and |

(KK {12 | (KG aka (Kee Ke Oi eer

(K — 2) Ke Wk meena.

where K is the upper endpoint for the last completed interval. These alternate

sets of intervals place increased importance on accurately capturing the trend of

the last 18 interval counts and the last 12 interval counts, respectively.

Of all the fitted functions obtained for each cohort year, it is difficult to

determine which one is best. One criteria would be to perform a x” goodness-of-

fit test on each of the fits for a cohort, and select as the best fit the one which is

most compatible with null hypothesis that (4) or (5) is the proper distribution

function. However, this scheme is not necessarily ideal since it tends to favor the

fits based on fewer intervals, and such fits can be more highly influenced (in a

bad way) by quirks in the data.

For each year, the interval counts tend to decrease as one gets further out into

the tail of the distribution, but the observed counts do not follow a strictly

decreasing pattern. Since it is reasonable to believe that the simple function

which will best capture the trend of the cumulative distribution and lead to the

best approximation of N(0o) is a smoothly increasing function consistent with a

decreasing sequence of interval counts, and since the fits of (4) and (5) generally

US AIDS POPULATION 95

Table 6.—Estimated Number of Diagnosed AIDS Cases which will Eventually be Attributed to 1985-88

(obtained by fitting the data from the various years separately)

Year N(co)

1985 12029

1986 20031

1987 29801

1988 37271

imply decreasing interval counts, a method which is more sensitive to quirks in

the sequence of observed counts may not be as good as one which focuses on

finding a function which provides a reasonable fit over a longer sequence of

intervals. It should also be kept in mind that because we are dealing with such

large sample sizes in our goodness-of-fit tests, the high power of the testing

procedure will cause some strong rejections of the null hypothesis even though

from a practical viewpoint the fit coincides with the observed data rather well.

Another way of arriving at a guess as to which fit may be best is to exploit the

fact that Table 5 suggests that the cumulative distribution ratios are quite similar

for adjacent years. Therefore, since we can observe that for 1987 we have N(42)

= 1.040-N(30) (and noting additionally that for 1986 we have N(42) =

1.041 - N(30)), it seems reasonable to require that F(42) be close to 1.040 - N(30)

for the 1988 data. Thus, the fit which provides an estimate of the 1988 cohort’s

growth from 30 months to 42 months which is most consistent with the ob-

served growth for the 1987 cohort can, in one sense, be deemed to be the best

estimating function for 1988’s distribution. The various candidates for 1987 can

be judged on how consistently they match 1986’s observed growth from 42

months to 54 months, and other years can be handled in a similar manner. In

every case it turns out that one of the fits based on the original set of intervals

does as good as any fit based on the alternate sets of intervals which place more

emphasis on the trend in the extreme upper tail of the distribution.

To arrive at estimates of N(co) for the various years, we proceeded as follows.

For each year, we found the fit that corresponded to the largest goodness-of-fit

test P-value (which is indicative of the highest degree of compatibility with the

null hypothesis) and obtained the associated estimate of N(co). We then found

the fit that most closely matched the observed growth rate for the preceding year

and obtained the associated estimate of N(oo), and then averaged the two esti-

mates to obtain the values displayed in Table 6.

Finding A Universal Fit For Recent Years

The estimated cohort sizes from Table 6 can be combined with the observed

interval counts to arrive at estimates of the cumulative distribution functions for

96 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

the years 1985-88. Some values for the cohort distributions are shown in Table

7 below.

From Table 7, it can be seen that with the exception of the first eight or nine

months the cumulative distributions of the lags appear to be very similar for the

1987 and 1988 cohorts. One can also observe other similarities between portions

of the distributions, but in general no strong patterns linking the four estimated

distributions seem to exist. Of course, inaccuracies in the estimated values of

N(co) for the various years could make the estimated distributions appear less

similar (or more similar) to one another than is warranted. That being the case,

it seems reasonable to see if a single (but perhaps with more than one piece)

cumulative distribution approximation function can be found that is consistent

with a large portion of the 1985-1988 data. However, it should be kept in mind

that the values displayed in Table 7 (which are not based on any estimated

parameters) indicate that the cumulative distributions are different for the

various years, and so there exists no single formula which will completely agree

with all of the observed interval counts.

To find a function which provides a decent fit to both the 1987 and 1988 data,

one can first define F,(m) to be the sum of the N(m) values for 1987 and 1988

divided by the sum of the estimates of N(oo) for those two years. Then an

appropriate function can be fit to the computed values of F,(m) using regression.

It turns out that functions of the form

F*(m) = 1.0/[1.0 + G(m)],

where G(m) is of the form

are capable of providing good fits. One way of fitting such functions is to employ

a least squares regression to fit the polynomial G(m) to the values of [1.0/

F,(m)]-1.0. Fits of this type were done using both the second degree and third

degree versions of G(m), and fits were also done using values of F;(m) in place of

F,(m), where the values of F,(m) are obtained by dividing the sum of the N(m)

values for 1986, 1987, and 1988 by the sum of the N(co) estimates for those three

years. To insure a good fit to the tail of the distribution, the fits were done using

only the values m = 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, and 42. (For m = 36 and m = 42, 1988

US AIDS POPULATION Ly)

Table 7.—Estimated Cumulative Distributions of Lags for 1985-88 Based on the N(co) Values Displayed in

Table 6

Cum. dist. 1985 - 1986 1987 1988

F(1) 0.304 0.281 0.201 0.251

F(2) 0.468 0.425 0.373 0.422

F(3) 0553 0.500 0.484 0.517

F(4) 0.604 0.551 0.541 0.574

F(5) 0.638 0.585 0.585 0.612

F(6) 0.665 0.613 0.618 0.642

F(7) 0.688 0.634 0.645 0.663

F(8) 0.705 0.649 0.668 0.682

F(9) 0.720 0.662 0.687 0.697

F(10) 0.734 0.673 0.708 0.712

F(11) 0.743 0.684 0.723 0.724

F(12) 0.753 0.695 0.738 0.736

F(18) 0.790 0.762 0.802 0.797

F(24) 0.814 0.817 0.839 0.839

F(30) 0.844 0.850 0.870 0.865

F(36) 0.868 0.870 0.891

F(42) 0.888 0.885 0.904

F(48) 0.901 0.898

F(54) 0.912 0.907

F(60) 0.922

F(66) 0.929

values were not available and so the formulas for F,(m) and F,(m) had to be

adjusted appropriately.)

All things considered, the F,(m) values seemed to produce the more desirable

fits. As expected, the third degree version of G(m) resulted in a nicer pattern of

residuals; however, the second degree version of G(m) produced a fit that was

actually superior in other aspects of being consistent with the observed data. It

turns out that

1.0

1.0 + 4.83/m + 1.42/m? — 63.6/m? ’

which is obtained by averaging the coefficients of the least squares fit of the

second and third degree versions G(m) to the values of F;(m), is an estimate of

the cumulative distribution which exhibits remarkable consistencies with the

observed data.

UB is

Table 8.—Preliminary Estimates of AIDS Cases Which Will Eventually be Attributed to 1985-88 (ob-

tained by fitting the aggregated data from 1986-88)

Year N(co)

1985 11994

1986 19797

1987 30049

1988 37411

98 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

Table 9.—Estimated Values of the Cumulative Distributions of Lags for 1985-88 Based on the N(co)

Values Displayed in Table 8, With the Estimate F* Obtained from Fits of the 1986-88 Data

Cum. dist. 1985 1986 1987 1988 Estimate

F(6) 0.667 0.620 0.613 0.639 0.645

BG2) 0.755 0.703 OW7S82 0.733 0.727

F(18) 0.792 0.771 0.796 0.794 0.793

F(24) 0.816 0.827 0.832 0.835 0.834

F(30) 0.847 0.861 0.862 0.862 0.862

F(36) 0.870 0.880 0.883 0.882

F(42) 0.890 0.896 0.897 0.897

F(48) 0.903 0.908 0.909

F(54) 0.915 0.918 0.918

F(60) 0.924 0.925

F(66) 0.932 0.932

The values of N(co) resulting from F*(m) are given in Table 8. These. values

are quite similar to the previously obtained ones displayed in Table 6. However,

they differ enough from the previous values to yield noticeably different esti-

mates of the cumulative distributions for the 1985-88 cohorts as can be seen by

comparing the values from Table 7 with the values in Table 9.

Not only does this estimate of the cumulative distribution produce an in-

crease degree of similarity amongst the four distributions, but it also yields ratio

values that are in line with what one might expect from the values displayed in

Table 5. This can be observed in Table 10, where the ratio values of the esti-

mated distribution have been added to the information that was contained in

Table 5 (and the ratios for 1982 have been dropped).

Even though the estimate just considered provides a more or less adequate fit

of the upper tails of the 1986-88 distributions, it isn’t all that accurate over the

first twelve monthly intervals. To determine a function which provides a good

fit to the lower portion of the cumulative distribution one can repeat the proce-

Table 10.—Various Ratios of the Cumulative Distributions of Lags for 1983-88 and of the Estimated

Distribution Function

Ratio 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Estimate

F(6)/F(12) 0.900 0.885 0.883 0.883 0.837 0.872 0.877

F(12)/F(18) 0.962 0.957 0.953 0.912 0.920 0.923 0.917

F(18)/F(24) 0.978 0.983 0.971 0.933 0.956 0.951 0.950

F(24)/F(30) 0.984 0.984 0.964 0.961 0.965 0.969 0.968

F(30)/F(36) 0.986 0.986 0.973 0.978 0.976 0.977

F(36)/F(42) 0.988 0.984 0.977 0.983 0.985 0.983

F(42)/F(48) 0.989 0.983 0.986 0.986 0.987

F(48)/F(54) 0.982 0.984 0.988 0.990 0.990

F(54)/F(60) 0.987 0.991 0.989 0.992

F(60)/F(66) 0.979 0.991 0.992 0.993

F(66)/F(72) 0.990 0.992 0.994

F(72)/F(78) 0.994 0.995

US AIDS POPULATION 99

Table 11.—Comparison of Values of F,(M) and the Regression-Based Approximation

m F,(m) Approximation

2 0.398 0.398

3 0.499 0.502

4 0.556 0.555

5 0.596 0.592

6 0.627 0.623

Th 0.651 0.649

8 0.671 0.672

9 0.688 0.692

10 0.705 0.709

11 0.719 0.725

dure employed to fit the upper tail, only now using values of F,(m) and F,(m) for

m = 2,3,4. .., 10, 11. (The m = 1 values were deleted since including them

substantially worsened the quality of the fit. It should also be noted that the

F,(m) and F,(m) values used here are based on the new N(co) values reported in

Table 8.) For this part of the distribution, using the F,(m) values along with the

third degree version of G(m) seemed to provide the best fit. Table 11 compares

the values of F,(m) with the following approximation formula obtained from

the regression:

1.0

1.0 + 5.0074/m — 10.3954/m? + 12.8785/m?>

Further Discussion

Upon putting all of the pieces together, we propose the following approxima-

tion formula for the cumulative distribution of lags:

O27 | m= 1

' F(m) =§ (1.0 + 5.0074/m — 10.3954/m? + 12.8785/m3)! 1<m < 12,

(1.0 + 4.83/m + 1.42/m? — 63.6/m?)! Wi.

Our analysis exploited patterns noticed in the data which allowed us to obtain

a good fit for the distribution of lags up to six and a half years with a relatively

simple function. This function indicates that the distribution may have a longer

tail than was previously thought. In the past, other researchers have focused on

obtaining nonparametric estimates of the conditional distribution. Our formula

yields results reasonably consistent with the conditional distribution values re-

ported in Table | of (Brookmeyer and Liao, 1990), (who used the CDC database

of cases reported before 10/1/89), with our sample almost three times as large.

100 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

Discrepancies between our results and those of others would seem largely due to

the facts that reporting patterns have been changing slightly over time and that

our fit is based on a more recent database.

For the diagnosis year 1987, information contained in (Centers for Disease

Control, 1989a) can be used to obtain estimates of the cumulative percentages of

AIDS cases reported within one month, two months, three months, six months,

and one year. Respectively, the estimates are: about 23% or 24%, about 44%,

about 56% or 57%, about 71%, and about 81% or 82%. These estimates are in

disagreement with our approximation formula and are indicative of smaller

_N(oo) values than what we obtained. If the estimates obtained from our fits of

the observed data prove to be more accurate, then all previous projections base

on the information in (Centers for Disease Control, 1989a) will correspond to

underestimates of the true population sizes. It is interesting to note that the

_ estimates implied by (Centers for Disease Control, 1989a) seem to be iriconsis-

tent with the CDC data. For example, the value of the ratio F(2)/F(12) can be

obtained from the CDC data without using any estimate of N(co). From the

CDC data we get F(2)/F(12) = 0.506, whereas the estimates inferred from

(Centers for Disease Control, 1989a) yield a value of about 0.54 for this ratio.

Our schemes for obtaining estimates of the cumulative distribution of lags

and values of N(co) was based on an assumption that the trends apparent in the

observed data would continue to hold in the intervals that future lags will be

credited to. Of course, extrapolation is a dangerous practice and one should

avoid it if at all possible. However, for this task there doesn’t seem to be any good

alternative to using data modeling combined with extrapolation. Nevertheless,

the following suggestion probably has some merit: create a lag correction for-

mula that can be used to predict the total number of report cases after eight years

and then adjust upwards the nonreporting correction factor, which is little more

than an educated guess anyway, to account for lags of more than eight years.

That is, use

C(m) = F(96)/F(m)

as a multiplicative lag correction factor.

Here, F(m) is the three part formula given at the beginning of this subsection,

and estimates of N(96) are to be obtained by multiplying N(m) by C(m). In

conjunction with C(m), one would also employ a multiplicative nonreporting

correction factor, y, having a value somewhere between 1.11 and 1.43, to reflect

an additional increase of 11 to 43 percent to account for lags longer than eight

years and cases never reported to the CDC. This alteration to our scheme con-

fines most of the uncertainty to the nonreporting correction factor. From the

available data, one can certainly see that lags of up to eight years can occur but

US AIDS POPULATION 101

Table 12.—Estimates of AIDS Cases for 1982-88, Corrected for Lags and Nonreporting

Year N(co) ea DC:.3/92

1982 1346 1090

1983 S712 2924

1984 7559 5946

1985 14273 11159

1986 23559 18194

1987 35759 27159

1988 44521 33161

one has little concrete to work with in trying to come up with an estimate of the

proportion of cases that will have a reporting lag of longer than eight years.

In order to get a sense of the changes 1n the lag distributions and of the growth

of the number of AIDS cases, the values of N(oo) and the corresponding esti-

mates of the cumulative distributions, corrected for lags and nonreporting, were

computed for the years 1982-88. It is assumed that y = 1.25. The values of

N(co) obtained are presented in Table 12 and some values of the estimated

cumulative distributions are displayed in Table 13. Table 12 also shows how our

estimates compare to the figures reported by the CDC in April 1992 for AIDS

cases through the end of March 1992.

Analysis of Subgroups

If differences in reporting patterns among various subgroups are discovered,

then it may be possible to develop more refined estimates of population sizes by

analyzing the subgroups separately. (Brookmeyer and Liao, 1990), performed a

regression analysis to model the conditional lag distribution as a function of

various covariates. They observed some variation in reporting patterns across

Table 13.—Estimated Cumulative Distributions of Lags, Corrected for Nonreporting

Cum. dist. 1984 1985 , 1986 1987 1988

F(6) 0.590 0.560 0.521 ODS 0.537

F(12) 0.667 0.634 0.591 0.615 0.616

F(18) 0.697 0.666 0.648 0.669 0.668

F(24) 0.709 0.686 0.695 0.699 0.702

F(30) 0.720 0.711 0.723 0725 0.724

F(36) OMI O73il 0.740 0.742

F(42) 0.742 0.748 0.753 0.754

F(48) O3755 0.759 0.763

F(54) 0.767 0.769 0.771

F(60) 0.774 0.777

F(66) 0.781 0.783

102 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

Table 14.—Comparison of the Proportion of Cases Belonging to Key Subgroups

Hetero Gays IVDU Duals Others

1986-87 0.031 0.625 0.198 0.074 0.073

1988-89 0.047 0.575 0.238 0.062 0.078

1990-91 0.063 0.543 . 0.244 0.054 0.095

geographic regions and between the risk groups. In our work, the analysis fo-

cuses on reporting delays for both the aggregate population and by risk group,

having, of course, the advantage of a total sample nearly three times as large as

Brookmeyer and Liao.

Table 14 displays the proportions of all AIDS cases reported for the diagnosis

years 1986 and 1987 which belong to the following five subpopulations: hetero-

sexuals, gays, IV drug users, duals, and others. Also given are the corresponding

proportions for the diagnosis years 1988 and 1989, and also the ones for all cases

attributed to 1990 and 1991 that are known of so far. It can be seen that the

proportions of cases belonging to the heterosexual group and the IVDU group

are increasing, whereas the gay and dual groups exhibit declines.

Since the subgroup composition of the AIDS population seems to be shifting

somewhat, and is anticipated to exhibit more pronounced changes in the future,

it is of interest to determine whether or not the reporting tendencies pertaining

to the different groups are nearly the same. If the lag distribution or the nonre-

sponse rate for one or more groups is appreciably different from what they are

for other groups, then the proposed correction factors will have to be viewed as

looser approximations than they would otherwise.

Unfortunately, at the current time there does not appear to be any good way

to assess the nonresponse rates accurately for the various subpopulations (or for

the aggregate population). However, by examining the distributions of lags some

indication of how similar the reporting patterns associated with various group

are can be obtained. Table 15 gives some values for the conditional cumulative

distribution of lags up to 42 months for the cases attributed to 1986 and 1987.

It appears that the heterosexuals subgroup and the gays subgroup experience

very similar behavior in regard to reporting lags, and that the IVDU subgroup

has higher proportions of the longer lag times. The distribution for the duals

group also shows a pattern of longer lag times than what is observed for the

heterosexuals and gays, but the difference isn’t as great as it is for the IVDU. It

can be seen from Table 14 that if the two groups having longer lag times are

combined, then the proportion of cases belonging to the combined group has

remained relatively constant. For example, the proportion of cases which are in

US AIDS POPULATION 103

Table 15.—Various Ratios of the Cumulative Distributions of Lags (by subgroups, for 1986-87 cases)

Indicating the Shapes of the Conditional Distributions for Lags No Greater than 42

Condit. dist. Hetero Gays Duals IVDU

F(2)/F(42) 0.461 0.465 0.422 0.404

F(4)/F(42) 0.641 0.633 0.588 0.565

F(6)/F(42) 0.721 0.711 0.669 0.640

F(9)/F(42) 0.781 0.778 0.737 ~ 0.708

F(12)/F(42) 0.835 0.823 0.791 0.762

F(18)/F(42) 0.896 0.890 0.882 0.843

F(24)/F(42) 0.933 0.933 0.929 0.908

F(30)/F(42) 0.961 0.964 0.964 0.958

F(36)/F(42) 0.987 0.985 0.985 0.982

either the I[VDU or duals groups is about 0.300 for 1988-89 and is about 0.298

for 1990-91.

It is also of interest to determine if there is any indication of changes in

reporting practices in recent years. In order to assess whether or not there have

been any substantial changes in the distributions of reporting lags, one can

compare the cumulative distributions for the 1986-87 cases with the cumulative

distributions for the 1988-89 cases. Since only the counts for lags up to 18

months are complete for the 1989 cohort, the cumulative distributions dis-

played in Table 16 and Table 17 are conditional distributions for lags up to 18

months.

The similarity between the lag distributions for the gays and heterosexuals

subgroups noted previously is again evident from the values displayed in Table

16. Also, it can be seen that there are no major differences between the distribu-

tions for the 1986-87 cases and the 1988-89 cases (except for a slight tendency

for a larger proportion of shorter lags for heterosexuals in the more recent

cohorts). The values in Table 17 indicate that for the 1986-87 cases there is very

little difference between the distribution for the IVDU group and the distribu-

Table 16.—Various Ratios of the Cumulative Distributions of Lags for the Gays and Heterosexuals Sub-

groups for the Diagnosis Periods 1986-87 and 1988-89 —

Gays Gays Hetero Hetero

Condit. dist. 86-87 88-89 86-87 88-89

F(1)/F(18) 0.315 0.310 0.272 0.294

F(2)/F(18) 0.522 0.522 0.515 0.530

F(3)/F(18) 0.642 0.640 0.655 0.668

F(6)/F(18) 0.800 0.795 0.805 0.815

F(9)/F(18) 0.874 0.870 0.873 0.892

F(12)/F(18) 0.925 0.925 0.932 0.938

F(15)/F(18) 0.968 0.970 0.971 0.974

104 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

Table 17.— Various Ratios of the Cumulative Distributions of Lags for the [VDU and Duals Subgroups for

the Diagnosis Periods 1986-87 and 1988-89

IVDU IVDU Duals Duals

Condit. dist. 86-87 88-89 86-87 88-89

F(1)/F(18) 0.282 0.285 0.299 0.299

F(2)/F(18) 0.480 0.503 0.479 0.510

F(3)/F(18) 0.601 0.632 0.602 0.632

F(6)/F(18) 0.759 0.793 0.759 0.798

F(9)/F(18) 0.840 0.873 0.836 0.880

F(12)/F(18) 0.904 ; 0.926 0.897 0.937.

F(15)/F(18) 0.957 0.972 0.954 0.974

tion for the duals group, and these two distributions are very similar for the

1988-89 cases as well. However, for both of these subgroups the distribution for

the 1988-89 cases is somewhat different than it is for the 1986-87 cases.

The distributions for 1988-89 are indicative of smaller proportions of the

longer lag times, and in fact for the 1988-89 cases the distributions for all four

subgroups are somewhat similar. One can summarize the results by noting that

for the 1986-87 cases the lags for the IVDU and duals groups are somewhat

longer than they are for the gays and heterosexuals subgroups, and for the

1988-89 cases the distributions for the gays and heterosexuals are similar to the

distributions for the 1986-87 data, but that the distributions for the [VDU and

duals groups have changed to become more similar to the distributions for the

other two groups. These observations can perhaps be better seen in Table 18

where the distribution for the combined IVDU/duals group for 1986-87 cases is

compared to the distribution for the combined gays/heterosexuals group for

1988-89 cases and the distribution for the combined gays/heterosexuals group

(based on the data for the four year period 1986-89). We would conclude that,

all in all, there is no strong evidence to indicate that separate lag correction

formulas are needed for the various subgroups.

Table 18.—Ratios of the Cumulative Distributions of Lags for Various Combined Data Groups Indicating a

Tendency Towards an Increased Degree of Homogeneity

IVDU/Duals IVDU/Duals Gay/Hetero

Condit. dist. "86-87 88-89 86-89

F(1)/F(18) 0.287 0.288 0.310

F(2)/F(18) 0.479 0.504 0.522

F(3)/F(18) 0.601 a) O1632 0.642

F(6)/F(18) 0.759 0.794 0.798

F(9)/F(18) 0.839 0.874 : 0.873

F(12)/F(18) 0.902 0.928 0.926

F(15)/F(18) 0.956 0.972 0.970

US AIDS POPULATION | 105

Resolution Of Nonresponse

Every assessment of the CDC AIDS surveillance dataset recognizes the prob-

lem of nonresponse, whether from deliberate avoidance or systemic deficiencies

in capturing 100% of the AIDS cases diagnosed. Various recent reports have

enumerated social and career pressures which mitigate against candor in report-

ing AIDS by patients, by healthcare workers, and by institutions (National

Commission on Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, 1990; New York

Times, 1990a; New York Times, 1989b; New York Times; 1990b; Washington

Post, 1990).

The General Accounting Office (General Accounting Office, 1989), pp. 37-

38) estimated that one-third of AIDS cases may not be reported (an implied

nonresponse correction factor of 1.5). CDC’s own estimates have ranged from

“10% to 30%,” a factor range of 1.11 to 1.43. A report on South Carolina’s AIDS

cases (Conway, 1989), comparing reported numbers vs. actual medical records,

found only 59.5% of cases being reported, a factor of 1.68. A Chicago study

(New York Times, 1989a) found that mid-America was greatly underreported

on AIDS cases, particularly among affluent whites.

If you do not account for nonresponse in estimating HIV populations via

CDC reported data, you implicitly set the value at 0%, i.e., a factor of 1.0. To

date, we have used a factor in our work of 1.25, which is approximately at the

center of CDC’s “10% to 30%” assessment.

Concluding Remarks

Our results thus far suggest strongly that the HIV/AIDS epidemic will be more

extensive and of greater duration than the public expects. The scope and persis-

tence of the epidemic (worldwide and decades-long) has important implications

for both the long-range and operational planning of our healthcare systems and

related mechanisms of social support.

One of the more important results of the continual underestimation of the

stream of AIDS cases is the concomitant underestimation of the incidence and

prevalence of the HIV infection itself. Indeed, we believe that the public contin-

ues to be misled regarding the true scope of the epidemic. We take special

exception to the oft-repeated quotation that there are 1 million people who have

ever been HIV seropositive. We feel that the actual figure 1s considerably higher

(possibly by an order of magnitude) and is still increasing.

But just how large is the pre-AIDS HIV-infected population? One million

cases as of July 1989 is a widely cited estimate (embraced by the Centers for

106 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

Disease Control as a result of a workshop conducted October/November 1989,

with subsequent publication in (Centers for Disease Control, 1990c). The 1

million quantity has obviously never been tallied—it is a statistical estimate

with potential likely error in either an up- or downward direction. However, it

has neither been revised since then nor subjected to subsequent re-estimation.

There have been some minor differences over this figure (our own pre-AIDS

estimate is 1.3 million (Harris et al., 1992); but the issue now is the repetitious

use of a 1 million HIV population size since 1989, including its use at the

International AIDS Conference in Amsterdam in July 1992.

Exactly what does “1 million HIV cases” mean? The CDC reported in Jan-

uary 1992 (Centers for Disease Control, 1992a), ““Of the estimated 1 million

HIV-infected persons in the United States, approximately 20% have developed

AIDS.” That is, the pre-AIDS HIV-infected population would have truly been

about 800,000, when the highly publicized 200,000 reported AIDS cases, an-

nounced in early 1992, are subtracted. In an earlier report by CDC (Centers for

Disease Control, 1990b) (see Table 1, page 111), total U.S. HIV prevalence was

estimated as 750,000 (January 1986) and | million (June 1989); these figures

excluded AIDS deaths. That report also stated CDC’s opinion that 15% of all

diagnosed AIDS cases are never reported to CDC.

We believe that recent reports in the scientific literature and public media

regarding the possibility of a sharp decline in the incidence of HIV seropositivity

are premature and may cause ill-timed erosion of public efforts to combat the

epidemic. Furthermore, unanticipated impacts of HIV/AIDS on this nation’s

healthcare system through the remainder of the 1990s could well compromise

our ability to deal with a broad range of competing public health problems. One

of our primary concerns is recent work published by (Brookmeyer, 1991), which

has been widely quoted in media. |

In that paper, Brookmeyer claimed that there was a precipitous drop in HIV

incidence to less than 25,000 infections in 1989. We strongly disagree with this

estimate and the purported downward trend on two grounds. First, the drop is

contradicted by published evidence and its use could lead to erroneous policy

decisions. Second, we seriously question the validity of his application of a

specific curve-fitting technique to a problem of forecasting future outcomes.

Separate analyses and modeling efforts performed at George Mason Univer-

sity (Harris et al., 1992) and at the Department of Veterans Affairs.(Salzberg et

al., 1991; Salzberg and MacRae, Jr., 1992) nave both come to a contrasting

conclusion regarding the probable path of the epidemic through 1995 and

beyond. While we do concur with the emerging understanding that the rate of

growth of the seropositive population has dropped sharply, we feel that there is

significant evidence that the most optimistic estimates of a drop in the actual

US AIDS POPULATION 107

numbers of newly infected HIV cases are too extreme and subject to misinter-

pretation. We must emphasize and repeat our conclusion that two seemingly

contradictory factors both characterize the HIV/AIDS database simultaneously:

(1) a decrease in the rate of new infections each year since 1977, and (2) an

increase in the incidence of new infections each year since the start of the

pandemic in 1976.

Outcomes of both the GMU and Salzberg HIV/AIDS modeling programs are

in close agreement: while the rate of HIV growth is indeed likely decreasing, the

number of new infections will almost certainly exceed 120,000 in 1991 and

could well be as high as 280,000. Figures 1 and 2 depict the divergence between

our projections of HIV prevalence and incidence and those of Brookmeyer.

How can this difference be explained?

First, consider that an extrapolation of military data on HIV incidence in the

general population yields an estimate of 40,000 new infections in 1989 (Salzberg

et al., 1991). Since the military actively discourages homosexuals and IVDUs

from service, this would thus represent a lower limit for the general population,

which is already greater than Brookmeyer’s estimate (at least 40,000 vs. 25,000).

Second, consider the following. There is some agreement among researchers

that the HIV seropositive population was in the range 600,000 to 750,000 at

end-1985 (CDC: 750,000; Brookmeyer, Science: 715,000; Salzberg et al.:

550,000; GMU: 588,000). It would, therefore, not seem unreasonable to assume

that the total HIV population was approximately | miilion at start-1989. Thus,

Brookmeyer’s 25,000 new HIV cases represents an annual rate of 2.5 new infec-

tions per 100 existing cases. Furthermore, in order to maintain a stable popula-

tion of about 1.5 million cases in 1991, the rate of new HIV infections would

have to be enough to replace the number of HIV/AIDS deaths in the year,

estimated currently by the CDC to be over 30,000. This represents approxi-

mately a 2% spread rate for the HIV seroprevalent population. Even if the total

HIV/AIDS population had remained at | million, the spread rate for stability

would be only 3%. However, we believe that these rates are too low and too great

a departure from the rates recognized for recent years; in contrast, Harris,

Rattner, and Sutton claim an estimated rate of 19% for 1989 and 15% for 1991,

while the figure for Salzberg et al. is 16% for 1989.

Our respective analyses suggest that more likely profiles for new HIV carriers

for the years 1986-91 would look as indicated in Figure 2, for example, giving a

range of 142,000 to 258,000 in 1989 (where the lower value is based on a “highly

optimistic” scenario by Salzberg). These would be compared to Brookmeyer’s

- approximate figure of 25,000 for the four quarters of 1989.

Note, however, that the estimation of the pre-AIDS HIV population in recent

years is complicated by the problem of measuring the impact of intervention

108 HARRIS, RATTNER, & SUTTON

therapies, principally AZT, to moderate the rate of transition of pre-AIDS cases

into AIDS. This contrasts with the previous natural history of the pace or pro-

gression of the disease. It is true that new therapies that have been administered

in recent years to pre-AIDS patients have succeeded in lengthening the average

incubation time-to-AIDS. Similarly, treatments provided to many AIDS pa-

tients have lengthened the average lifespan from less than 15 months to two

years.

Clearly, there are no cures yet; it is hoped that these therapies may buy time

needed to await the development of future, more effective treatments. This

desirable interim situation in the progress of the epidemic has had the effect of

slowing the rate at which the pre-AIDS population transitions into AIDS, by

exhibiting one of the multiple indicator diseases. This lesser rate, as of now,

means that the patient will live some months longer, after AIDS-onset, under a

slower paced progression of the disease. :

In order to combat the HIV/AIDS epidemic effectively, the bio-medical com-

munity must learn to know the enemy better. The search for practical treat-

ments and cures requires the utmost of creative research and challenges our

knowledge of the most fundamental properties of the behavior of this difficult

virus. In order to respond to the health-care needs of the already infected, we

must also come to grips with a more realistic assessment of the breadth and pace

of the epidemic. If indeed the level of the epidemic is at or near the level shown

in our analysis, then the degree of resources required will be far beyond what any

governmental agency is currently prepared to support.

References

Brodt, H. R., E. B. Helm, A. Werner, A. Joetten, L. Bergmann, A. Kluver, and W. Stille. (1986). Spontaneous

Course of LAV/HTLV-III Infection; Observations of the Progression in Persons from AIDS Risk Groups.

Deutsche Medizinische Wochenschrift, 111:1175-1180. (English translation by Daniel Case, ACLI).

Brookmeyer, R. (1991). Reconstruction and Future Trends of the AIDS Epidemic in the United States.

Science, 253:37-42.

Brookmeyer, R. and M. H. Gail. (1988). A Method for Obtaining Short-Term Projections and Lower Bounds

on the Size of the AIDS Epidemic. Journal American Statistical Assn., 83:301-308.

Brookmeyer, R. and A. Damiano. (1989). Statistical Methods for Short-term Projections of AIDS Incidence.

Statistics in Medicine, 8:23-34.

Brookmeyer, R. and J. Liao (1990). The Analysis of Delays in Disease Reporting Methods and Results for the

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome. American Journal of Epidemiology, 132:355-365.

Centers for Disease Control. (1989a). AIDS and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection in the United

States: 1988 Update. CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 38:No. S-4.

Centers for Disease Control. (1989b). First 100,000 Cases of AIDS—US. CDC Morbidity and Mortality

Weekly Report, 38:561-563.

Centers for Disease Control. (1990a). Update: Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome—United States, 1989.

CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 39:81-86.

Centers for Disease Control. (1990b).. Estimates of HIV Prevalence and Projected AIDS Cases: Summary of a

Workshop, October 31—November 1, 1989. CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 39:110-119.

Centers for Disease Control. (1990c). HIV Prevalence Estimates and AIDS Case Projections for the United

States: Report Based upon a Workshop. CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 39:No. RR-16.

Centers for Disease Control. (1992a). The Second 100,000 Cases of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome—

United States, June 1981-December 1991. CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 41:28-29.

US AIDS POPULATION 109

Centers for Disease Control. (1992b). Update: Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome—United States, 1991.

CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 41:463-468.

Conway, G. A. et al. (1989). Underreporting of AIDS Cases in South Carolina, 1986 and 1987. Journal

American Medical Assn., 262:2859-2863.

Cowell, M. J. and W. H. Hoskins. (1987). AIDS, HIV Mortality, and Life Insurance. American Council of Life

Insurance, Washington, D.C. (also Addendum #1, September 17, 1987)

Curran, J. W. et al. (1988). Epidemiology of HIV Infection and AIDS in the United States. Science, 239:610-

616.

Dondero, T. J., Jr. et al. (1987). Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection in the United States: A Review of

Current Knowledge. CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 36:Supplement (summarized in Vol.

36, No. 49).

General Accounting Office. (1989). AIDS Forecasting: Undercount of Cases and Lack of Key Data Weaken

Existing Estimates. GAO/PEMD-89-13.

Harris, C. M., E. Rattner and C. Sutton. (1992). Forecasting the Extent of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic. Socio-Eco-

nomic Planning Sciences, 26:149-168.

Heyward, W. L. and J. W. Curran. (1988). The Epidemiology of AIDS in the US. Scientific American,

259:72-81.

Karon, J. M., T. J. Dondero, Jr., and J. W. Curran. (1988). The Projected Incidence of AIDS and Estimated

prevalence of HIV Infection in the United States. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome,

1:542-550.

Karon, J. M., O. J. Devine, and W. M. Morgan. (1989). Predicting AIDS Incidence By Extrapolating From

Recent Trends. Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to AIDS Epidemiology (pp. 58-88). Berlin:

Springer-Verlag.

Lemp, G. F. et al. (1990). Survival Trends for Patients with AIDS. Journal American Medical Assn., 263:402-

406.

May, R. M. and R. M. Anderson. (1987). Transmission Dynamics of HIV Infection. Nature, 326:137-142.

National Commission on Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome. (1990). Commission Reports on Problems

in AIDS Clinical Research Program; the Hidden Epidemic in Rural America; and the Health Care Worker

Crisis. Washington, DC: .

New York Times. (1988). US Ties AIDS to Soaring Pneumonia Deaths. (p. 50). October 2, 1988.

New York Times. (1989a). Chicago Study Says AIDS Cases in US Are Underestimated. (p. A8). June 9, 1989.

New York Times. (1989b). Should a Hospital Tell Patients if a Surgeon Has AIDS (Court Weighs Doctor’s

AIDS Suit). (p. B1). December 12, 1989.

New York Times. (1990a). Spread of Aids in Rural Areas Testing Georgia (‘Ruralization of AIDS’ Involves

Heterosexual Increase, Ostracism, Job Loss, Community Fears). (p. Al4). April 18, 1990.

New York Times. (1990b). Hospital Offers Tests After Surgeon Dies of AIDS (Johns Hopkins Offering Free

AIDS Tests to About 1800 Patients of Dr. Almaraz That He Operated On). (p. A20). December 3, 1990.

Office of Science and Technology Policy. (1988). A National Effort to Model AIDS Epidemiology. Washing-

ton, DC: Executive Office of the President.

Redfield, R. R., D. C. Wright, and E. C. Tramont. (1986). The Walter Reed Staging Classification for HTLV-

III/LAV Infection. New England Journal of Medicine, 314:131-132.

Salzberg, A., S. Dolins and C. Salzberg. (1991). A Multiperiod Compartmental Model of the HIV Pandemic

in the USA. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 25:No. 3.

Salzberg, A. and D. MacRae, Jr. (1992). Policies for Curbing the HIV Epidemic in the USA: Implications of a

Simulation Model. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 27:No. 3.

Siegman-Igra, Y.,S. Maayan, S. D. Pitlik, C. Costin, T. Swartz, and D. Michaeli. (1988). AIDS in Israel, 1987.

Israel Journal of Medical Sciences, 24:131-136.

Society of Actuaries. (1989). US General Population Projected AIDS Mortality Rates and The Financial

Implications of AIDS for Life Insurance Companies in the US, Schaumburg, IL:

Stoneburner, R. L. et al. (1988). Increase in Pneumonia Mortality Among Young Adults and the HIV Epi-

demic—New York City, United States. CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 37:593-596.

Trafford, A. (1988). The AIDS Numbers Game. Washington Post (p. Health-6). July 26, 1988.

Washington Post. (1990). AIDS Discrimination on the Rise (Stubborn and Pervasive patterns of Bias Emerg-

ing) (p. Health-15). June 19, 1990.

x EA

‘

Sab AR

a spe

ie dat

ws,

iw Withee os a Eeprhite Fy ty: ry inate

2. ,) rae ;

— tt. v7 Fo ater alee, brs a7) Pr sp ; en fi a ANS

. ne 7 . - 7 =) ‘

5 i _ a ye ‘ ‘

2 - j a . 9 a $ 4 i

. ; 4 a ’ ; a. ; fii Tie oie 4 ; ;

er 2 Rs . - 5 Ai OE Wn, * 4 ae i . > any,

Bt a t if ; a ae ey eres 4 Hehe) ‘

: 4 tel i 2 : st. Be ett

tore ee ee a Te ek Per, a SMe

4 - ea 7 z

y v &

mes) 17> % ae ’ 1

. ; ; ’

mig ‘ EDS ad ai tS a > b

‘ a 2

4 c 5 es

~" rr. a oe r

1 y =

wo Og 0

7 a

x i

= t cee — 5 n

¥ 4. Z f

‘ p- ‘ i

, te b | *

i % 4 ?

‘ * ¢

wid seu ole

/ ¥ 4

: (

! r

} .

7 , ®

ri 3

Wes

‘.

om ‘ 4 4 oe

5 ; seams | . heh AE camellia algal

ty Hee dag £27 , uJ

a eet eis

tie then ae }

e é sf ai eran

Le Bae “Ue pee Ns: B ct i oe eticg

sy 4

(oa alee i

geen ate : 2 a a

MA Me aog ate sheds ae aie ie wae Oe .

~~ . x

F KH

: % «fie ee

aay

: :

2 cies

a ef

ae iy a

BEN

’ t -

¢/ 4

ah.

DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES,

REPRESENTING THE LOCAL AFFILIATED SOCIETIES

Paesapiical Society of Washington 22... 1.05 6.20. 0.6. ee ee oe cee oe . Thomas R. Lettien

Aocnnoapological Society of Washington’.’....... 0... 6.600.066. . 0o hee de. Belford Lawson III

mommeiean Society Of WashiMPtOM 4.005. . oeeie ee es oo nie cee bn eee eM imbaie s Kristian Fauchald

Maemiem Society Ol Washington! .2.256 eo se eee dees 2 ek oe ae aes of Elise A. B. Brown

Emtomolerical Society of Washington 2:2... 22. 6050.6 cob eee ee ok F. Christian Thompson

Be See AGrCOPra MIG: SOCICLY hs ose) dike ia oe we Svs BSA Sue aoeenee es Stanley G. Leftwich

omiarieal Society Of WasSmiNnotoOnm: i252 6 occ es sale as sod hades odhaceeucce: VACANT

Nicdicalesociety of the District of Columbia ~.\...-0..5.0.6.20 000.6. e leeds eee John P. Utz

Pieonicalsaciety of Washington,DC 32.2 i22 65sec ee asic dave wen ote Thomas G. Manning

Pema SOCIELY OL WV ASHINPLOM 2 ious ics. cigs os 5 eis o fo shee etegeie alee se Bede oe tye cere Muriel Poston

Society of American Foresters, Washington Section .......5................0% Eldon W. Ross

a UPHETORESOCICLY Of EMSIMEGES oce2 cc vie yer oie,< & 45's disie'd ence oro Biele oe Goa Deis oo oh eS Alvin Reiner

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Washington Section ........ George Abraham

American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Washington Section ......... Clayton W. Robson

eimimtnelosical Society of Washington... . 2. ..2. sok cece eee cee cewvoces VACANT

American Society for Microbiology, Washington Branch .................. Herman Schneider

Society of American Military Engineers, Washington Post ................. William A. Stanley

American Society of Civil Engineers, National Capital Section .............. John N. Hummel

Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine, DC Section .............. Cyrus R. Creveling

ASMulnicmational, Washinston Chapter ..0.0.6.....6.. 00.0000 ecccees esses Pamela S. Patrick

American Association of Dental Research, Washington Section ............. J. Terrell Hoffeld

American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, National Capital

SEITE oo 0 char i ASUS rola ie EIB ee ORR Reginald C. Smith

Aimericam Meteorological Society, DC Chapter ..:............0.00 0S c eae A. James Wagner

Pestiseience society Of Washinpton ..... 2.2.0... 0.00. cele es ea deena ewes To be determined

Acoustical Society of America, Washington Chapter .....................0.. Richard K. Cook

AmencaneNuclear society, Washington Section .....5......5.0000. 0008s ccc cece. Kamal Araj

Institute of Food Technologists, Washington Section ..................00e ee eee Roy E. Martin

American Ceramic Society, Baltimore-Washington Section .................. Curtis A. Martin

PROG eT EAE SOIC UNE yaya oie et so) sil als trie os ic ic aos. Ses oc dhe ale inl o oisline ele Bighoiee Grate Regis Conrad

Masninetomraistonry Of Science CID: .. 0. ...65 56.5 lo. e ccc ee cece cceues Albert G. Gluckman

American Association of Physics Teachers, Chesapeake Section ............. Robert A. Morse

Optical Society of America, National Capital Section ...................... William R. Graver

American Society of Plant Physiologists, Washington Area Section ............. Steven J. Britz

Washington Operations Research/Management Science Council .............. John G. Honig

Instrument Society of America, Washington Section ..................2000005 Donald M. Paul

American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers,

By ASTIN STO MESS COM sre yes Sa Aalto ciajaos. WINES sale wist sas Bes’ a eo larel si oneuane lavess Harold Newman

National CapitalsAStrOMOMETS TFs. .5 cc oda cs ces ccs eclees o's babes Robert H. McCracken

Mathematics Association of America, MD-DC-VA Section ................. Sharon K. Hauge

District of Columbia Institute’ of Chemists ................6.0 6.0. 0e cee ee William E. Hanford

District of Columbia Psychological Association ..... ERE ARC MEAN Retiring tal tr 3 Ron Wynne

Mashmeton Pamt Technology;Group 2.05... 5 sce. cen be oceans ee ees ees Lloyd M. Smith

American Phytopathological Society, Potomac Division .................... Kenneth L. Deahl

Society for General Systems Research, Metropolitan Washington

CHIE PRYIEIO: s OR eri ea Gis Gr, bn Soh GNI ean Oe Pate RIE MEU David B. Keever

Fiuman Factors) Society. Potomac Chapter’ 25.6.3 0.60 5060. e se oefudens eee as: Thomas B. Malone

American Fisheries Society, Potomac Chapter ..........5.5.0......0c00+-00- Dennis R. Lassuy

Association for Science, Technology and Innovation ......................05: -.. Ralph I. Cole

7, eastern Sociological’ Society, 24.5066 6 biG ob bee os Nise Seas Ronald W. Manderscheid

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Northern Virginia

SECO Me terse ee ree ieee fone aes Site) eta hentia Sel Welacate welt dare Natnubane ara Blanchard D. Smith

Association for Computing Machinery, Washington Chapter ............. Charles E. Youman

Washington StatisticaliSociety (08 i ee ee oud Nancy Flournoy

Society of Manufacturing Engineers, Washington, DC Chapter ............... James E. Spates

Institute of Industrial Engineers, National Capital:Chapter .............. Rte tue James S. Powell

Delegates continue to represent their societies until new appointments are made.

Washington Academy of Sciences 2nd Class Postage Paid

2100 Foxhall Road, NW at Washington, DC

Washington, DC 20007-1199 and additional mailing offices.

Return Postage Guaranteed

wsi{7

Nias VOLUME 82

Number 3

| Our nal of the September, 1992

WASHINGTON

ACADEMY .. SCIENCES

ISSN 0043-0439

Issued Quarterly

at Washington, D.C.

SMITHSON, ry

NOV 0 2 1998

LIBRARIES

CONTENTS

Articles:

ALBERT GERARD GLUCKMAN, “Joseph Henry’s 1842 and 1843 out-of

doors electrical transmission’ signal experiments” |... =) :..2...-.- 4-00-2205"

BRUCE M. ROSS, “Development of psychology at The Catholic University of

PRTG Td CAE or Pee a eee eee i aes rem Nisha ev ui gale ctngem ine ais Selle au ehate

REGINALD HOPKINS, SHERMAN ROSS & LESLIE H. HICKS, “A history

of the Department of Psychology at Howard University” ....................

Washington Academy of Sciences

Founded in 1898

EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

President

Stanley G. Leftwich

President-Elect

John H. Proctor

Secretary

Nina M. Roscher

Treasurer

Norman Doctor

Past President

Walter E. Bock

Vice President, Membership Affairs

Cyrus R. Creveling

Vice President, Administrative Affairs

Grover C. Sherlin

Vice President, Junior Academy Affairs

Marylin B. Krupsaw

Vice President, Affiliate Affairs

Thomas W. Doeppner

Board of Managers

James W. Harr

John H. Proctor

Herbert H. Fockler

T. Dale Stewart

William B. Taylor

James H. Donahue

REPRESENTATIVES FROM

AFFILIATED SOCIETIES

Delegates are listed on inside rear cover

of each Journal.

ACADEMY OFFICE

2100 Foxhall Road, N.W.

Washington, D.C. 20007

Phone: (202) 337-2077

EDITORIAL BOARD

Editor:

Bruce F. Hill, Mount Vernon College

Associate Editors:

Milton P. Eisner, Mount Vernon Col-

lege

Albert G. Gluckman, University of

Maryland

Marc Rothenberg, Smithsonian Insti-

tution

Marc M. Sebrechts, Catholic Univer-

sity of America

Edward J. Wegman, George Mason

University

The Journal

This journal, the official organ of the Washing-

ton Academy of Sciences, publishes original

scientific research, critical reviews, historical

articles, proceedings of scholarly meetings of

its afhiliated societies, reports of the Academy,

and other items of interest to Academy

members. The Journal appears four times a

year (March, June, September, and De-

cember). The December issue contains a di-

rectory of the current membership of the

Academy.

Subscription Rates

Members, fellows, and life members in good

standing receive the Journal without charge.

Subscriptions are available on a calendar year

basis, payable in advance. Payment must be

made in U.S. currency at the following rates:

U.S.-and Canada) .. 45.355 $25.00

Other countries ... 22732 30.00

Single copies, when available ....... 10.00

Claims for Missing Issues

Claims will not be allowed if received more

than 60 days after the day of mailing plus time

normally required for postal delivery and

claim. No clarms will be allowed because of

failure to notify the Academy of a change of

address.

Notification of Change of Address

Address changes should be sent promptly to

the Academy Office. Such notification should

show both old and new addresses and zip

codes.

POSTMASTER: Send address changes to

Washington Academy of Sciences, 2100 Fox-

hall Road, N.W. Washington, DC 20007-

1199.

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences (ISSN 0043-0439)

Published quarterly in March, June, September, and December of each year by the Washing-

ton Academy of Sciences, 2100 Foxhall Road, N.W., Washington, DC, 20007-1199. Second

Class postage paid at Washington, DC and additional mailing offices.

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences,

Volume 82, Number 3, Pages 111-131, September 1992

Joseph Henry’s 1842 and 1843

Out-of-Doors Electrical Transmission

Signal Experiments

Albert Gerard Gluckman

Institute for Physical Science and Technology, University of Maryland,

College Park, Maryland 20742

ABSTRACT

Ever since G. Marconi first perfected his radio transmission apparatus in 1896, there has

been controversy” as to whether Prof. Joseph Henry had transmitted and detected wireless

electrical signals at a distance in 1842 and 1843. Evidence is presented to show that these

signals were produced by a transient electromagnetic field alternating at about 3.5 x 10° Hz

(i.e., cycles per second).

I discuss both the unpublished recorded and published evidence of Prof. Henry’s out-of-

doors electrical signal transmission experiments of October 1842 and October 1843. Men-

tion is made of the destruction by fire of his records in January of 1865, and of the later

published remarks about Henry’s experiments made by Ernest B. Rutherford in 1894. I

discuss the wiring of Henry’s primary and secondary circuits, and the construction of his

magnetic coil signal detector that he attached into the loop of the secondary wire.

1. Introduction. (a) Recorded and published evidence of signal transmis-

sion. On October 6, 7, and 8, 1842, Prof. Joseph Henry of the College of New

Jersey (now Princeton University) conducted a series of outdoors electrical ex-

* Refer to:

(1) J.S. Ames, The Discovery of Induced Electric Currents. vil. I. Memoirs by Joseph Henry, American Book

. Company, New York, Cincinnati, Chicago. (LC: QC631.A51) See p. 107 for pertinent remarks:

(2) J. S. Ames, Certain Aspects of Henry’s Experiments on Electromagnetic Induction, Science, 75, no. 1934

(Friday, January 22, 1932) pp. 87-92. See especially page 91.

(3) W. F. Magie, Joseph Henry, Reviews of Modern Physics, vol. 3 (October 1931) pp. 465-495.

In a speech at a meeting of the American Institute of Electrical Engineers arranged in his honor at the old

Waldorf-Astoria hotel in New York City on January 13, 1902, G. Marconi said:

“T have built very largely on the work of others, and before concluding I would like to mention a few

names. I may miss a few of them, but I would like to mention Clerk Maxwell, Lord Kelvin, Professor Henry

and Professor Hertz.”

This quotation was taken from page 116 of Marconi: The Man and His Wireless by O. E. Dunlap, Arno

Press and The New York Times (1971) New York; L.C. call no. TK 5739.M3 D8 1971.

111

112 GLUCKMAN

periments on the grounds of what was then called the “back campus” behind

Nassau Hall. In his laboratory notebook for the date October 7, he recorded

separation of his primary and secondary circuits at a distance of 165 feet, after

having made successive increases in distance in the course of these experiments.

Furthermore, he recorded in the final three experiments on Oct. 8, that

“the whole parallelogram formed by the secondary wire, was carried backward, so

that the farthest side was in the field beyond the Society halls” [1 and 7].

It is inferred from this remark in his record of experiments, and from the later

oral:;communication made at the October 21 meeting of the American Philo-

sophical Society, that the distance between the primary wire and secondary wire

in this final experiment of October 8, 1842, was more than 220 feet. The entry

recording this experimental result 1s:

“Prof. Henry. . . had succeeded in magnetizing needles by the secondary

current in a wire more than two hundred and twenty feet distant from the wire

through which the primary current was passing, excited by a single spark from

an electrical machine.” [2]

Exactly one year later, on October 16th through the 19th, 1843, Prof. Henry

renewed his electrical signal transmission experiments. This series of experi-

ments was made on the lawn of the front campus.

(b) Destruction of recorded evidence of signal transmission. On the bitter

cold day of January 24, 1865, a fire in the old red brick Smithsonian building on

the Mall in the city of Washington (caused by some workmen making repairs on

the building), destroyed

‘“‘a large number of papers and scientific notes of the Secretary [Prof. Henry];

[and] a series of diaries. . . . This [was a] truly ‘irreparable loss’ of orginal

notes of many series of experiments. . . running back for thirty years,. . .

and of which but few had been published even by results’’. [3, 4.1]

H. C. Cameron, who was a student of Prof. Henry, and later, himself a Professor

at Princeton University, in his later years verified this loss with his remembrance

[4.11] that

**. . . the record of those experiments perished in the flames when a portion of

the Smithsonian building was burned... .”

In addition, Henry himself wrote in 1849 in a letter to S. B. Dod and quoted

by Dod in his “‘Discourse”’ [4.vii]

“Since my removal to Princeton [in November of 1832 from Albany, New

York] I have made several thousand original investigations on electricity,

magnetism, and electro-magnetism, bearing on practical applications of elec-

tricity, brief minutes of which fill several hundred folio pages. They cost me

years of labor and much expense.”

PROF. HENRY’S ELECTRICAL SIGNAL EXPERIMENTS 113

Unfortunately, because these records of his experiments no longer exist, we lack

the quantative details as well as a more definite description of the layouts (espe-

cially with regard to the insulation of the secondary circuits) of these electrical

experiments; and an analysis of this lack of detail will be made.

propose to examine the remaining evidence left to us by Prof. Henry that he had

recorded in his laboratory note book [1 & 7] in October of 1842 and October of

1843, in which he described the establishment of alternating currents in a sec-

ondary circuit wire in out-of-doors experiments. The existing record will be

examined (along with information gleaned from maps of the grounds of the

old College campus in order to estimate the approximate locations of his wire

arrangements). This visualization will be helpful in understanding and in deter-

mining whether he transmitted and detected (by observation of the magnetic

State of a steel needle) the inductive effect of electromagnetic waves on the wire

conductor, or whether he detected the effect of a ground current and ground

return. The written evidence is clear for all to see that Henry hypothesized that

electric effects could be propagated as a wave in an elastic aether, and further,

that he called distant electric effects dynamic induction-at-a-distance because

they occurred during the passage of time. I add at this point, that Michael

Faraday went a step further than Henry in Faraday’s brief Note Thoughts on

Ray-vibrations (in 1846), when he hypothesized that an electric aether was not

necessary to explain the transmittal of electromagnetic action.

Faraday’s comments which set him apart from Henry on this Philosophical

interpretation are recorded in Appendix I.

Henry had experimented with inductive effects at a distance from lightning as

early as the year 1840. In the experiments examined in this paper, he used the

same wire coil that he had used in his “‘Induction from a thunder cloud” experi-

ments of June 10, 1842. In the experiments of October 1843, that are also

examined in this treatise, he used the same coil as well as five other ones individ-

ually as part of his detector. During his experiments of June 2, 1842, at his study

at home, he observed inductive effects from lightning at a distance of 20 miles, a

> These maps are:

(1) Fire Map of Mercer county (1890) page 88B. Scarlett & Scarlett, Newark, N.J., LC: G1258.M4S4 1890

folio.

(2) Facilities Survey Map of the old Princeton University campus (circa 1904), Office of the Vice President for

Facilities, The MacMillan Building, Princeton University. This map was donated to The Joseph Henry Papers

of the Smithsonian Institution. Washington, D.C.

(3) Atlas of the City of Trenton and borough of Princeton, N.J. (1905) Plate 22, A. H. Mueller & Co., 530

Locust St., Philadelphia, LC: G1259.T7L3 1905 folio.

(4) The Campus of Princeton University from the Northwest (1952) Princeton University Press, LC: G3814.P9

1952.S5.

114 GLUCKMAN

distance which he could determine by comparing the time of the flash to the

time he heard the thunder peale.

Many years afterward, in his publication of 1894, Ernest B. Rutherford [5]

published the following discussion concerning the magnetization of steel nee-

dles under high frequency discharges; and in this discussion, he acknowledged

Prof. Henry’s prior studies on the magnetization of steel needles. After citing the

researches of J. J. Thomson, J. Trowbridge, and Andrew Gray, appertain-

ing to magnetization of iron from high frequency discharges, he wrote:

“In order to investigate the effect of ‘magnetic penetration’ in iron for fields

varying very much more rapidly than could be obtained with the use of the

‘time apparatus’, the readiest means to hand for obtaining a very rapid oscilla-

tory current was the ordinary leyden-jar discharge.”

“The subject of the magnetization of iron in these fields has been very little

touched upon since the time that Henry experimented on the effect of leyden-

jar discharges on the magnetization of steel needles.” ‘

“In the experiments that follow it will be shown that iron is strongly mag-

netic in rapidly-varying fields, even when the frequency is over 100,000,000

per second.”’

In an 1896/1897 paper [6], Rutherford wrote in his introductory remarks that:

“THE present paper deals with the subject of the magnetization of iron by

high-frequency discharges, and the uses of magnetized steel needles for detect-

ing and measuring currents of very great rapidity of alternation.”

“Tt will be shown that these magnetic detectors offer a very simple means of

investigating many of the phenomena connected with high-frequency dis-

charges, and may be used in ordinary Leyden jar circuits, but they also offer a

sensitive means of detecting electrical radiation from Hertzian vibrators at

long distances from the vibrator.”

“The magnetization of steel needles when placed in a spiral through which a

Leyden jar discharge was passed has long been known.”

“In 1842 Professor HENRY was led to suspect from the anomalous magne-

tization of steel needles that the Leyden jar discharge was oscillatory.’

* ‘Damping of Electric Oscillations’, Philosophical Magazine, (December 1891).

volumes. Second edition: Absolute Measurements in Electricity and Magnetism (1889) Macmillan and Co.,

London & New York.

f These particular experiments done by Henry were antecedent to his out-of-doors transmission (i.e., electri-

cal signal) experiments described in this paper. For particular information about the works of Abria and

several others on steel needles, refer to A. G. Gluckman, A brief Overview of the Historical Progress of Joseph

Henry’s Studies concerning Alternating-Current Phenomena, Research Notes and Memoranda of Applied

Geometry for Prevenient Natural Philosophy, POST-RAAG Reports, No. 199 (March 1986) pp. 1-55. (LC:

Q1.R45 no. 199). In Europe, a copy may be read at the Science Museum library at South Kensington, London,

or else at the library of the British Museum on Great Russell street, London.

See also: A. G. Gluckman, The Discovery of Oscillatory Electric Current, Journal of the Washington

Academy of Sciences, 80, no. 1 (March 1990) pp. 16-25; Corrigenda, J.W.A.S., 80, no. 4 (December 1990) p.

187; and Corrigendum, J.W.A.S., 81, no. | (March 1991) p. 43.

PROF. HENRY’S ELECTRICAL SIGNAL EXPERIMENTS 115

The Experiments of October 1842

2. What is known about the preparation of the primary circuit arrangement

(for the transmission experiments) by Prof. Henry on October 6, 1842. (a) The

wiring of the primary and secondary (i.e., 1° and 2°) circuits. The principle

source of the descriptions of these induction-at-a-distance experiments (that is,

induction of a current in a wire) by Prof. Henry is chronicled in his own

handwriting in his surviving laboratory records. [1] Diagram 1 shows the ap-

proximate layout of the wire arrangements for Henry’s 1842 experiments in the

old back campus. The layouts of the parallelogram-shaped circuits are not

shown because of the lack of positional information.

A few days prior to October 6th, Prof. Henry arranged as his primary, a copper

wire (400 feet in length and ;-th of an inch in diameter) to snake its way through

the windows of (1) Philosophical Hall (since demolished), and from there into

(2) Nassau Hall, and into (3) his residence where Prof. Henry had his study. At

the windows of these buildings, the copper wire was supported by using insulat-

ing silk ribbon that was fastened to the sides of these windows.

“T made an arrangement a few days since of a long wire, extending from the

Electrical machine in philos. Hall, to my study on the opposite side of the

campus. The wire passed diagonally across the large lecture room to the south

west window facing the library and thence to the southern most window of the

two upper ones of the East end of the college, to the door of my study.”

The locations of these windows are depicted in diagrams | and 2 of the old

campus.

On the morning of October 6, the end of the wire next to Prof. Henry’s study.

was grounded by means of a connection to another copper wire that was already

attached in the well just outside his study. This attachment in the well was

already there from experiments with atmospheric electricity made about two

years earlier.

“This morning I completed a current with this wire and the ground by plung-

ing the end next to my study into the well, or rather by connecting it with the

wire which is already in the well for the experiments on atmospheric elec..

393

Thus, the other end of the wire was attached to a length of copper wire which was

securely connected (and grounded) into Mr. Clow’s well, and weighted with

lead. Earlier, on June 10, 1842, Henry [1 & 7] described the placement of the

wire connection in the water well next to his house.

“TI. . . passed the lower extremity [of the bell size® copper wire] into the

® Copper wire of the size used to ring church bells, hence the name bell wire, which was 0.05 of an inch in

diameter (American manufacturing standard size 16). Modern American gauge size 16 is 0.0508 inches in

diameter.

116 GLUCKMAN

The Fitz-Randolph Gate facing Nassau street

North

old Maclean |

Dr. Carnahan's

house |

hi |

house |

Philosophical |

Hall \

study \ |

well |

sa bs . 1 (2° wire)

¥ ee a==» «=» ee ele 2a 2De Ss) (2° wire)

forward position

1304:

. 4 (2° wire)

| 7

pale inlined ig pines Oa ene East |

College

55' assumed from mid-door to mid-door of the East and West College buildings = -

the helix in the 2° wire had 45 turns in each of 6 layers (strata)

experiments | , 2a, 4, 5a, had 3 charged jars in 1° circuit as the current source

experiments 2b and 5b had I jar in the !° circuit as the current source

experiment 3 used a single spark thrown from the electrostatic machine as the current source

Diagram 1. Sketch of the campus of the College of New Jersey at Princeton, circa 1842, showing approxi- )

mate locations of wiring

PROF. HENRY’S ELECTRICAL SIGNAL EXPERIMENTS 117

water of the well. This was effected by fastening a cylinder of lead to the end of

the wire, and passing this through a hole in the cover™ near the [hand] pump

of the well.” |

Prof. Henry recorded on October 6th that his primary circuit with ground

return via the connections in the two water wells, transmitted a test current that

tested the wire connections. He described this experimental demonstration in

the following [1 & 7] words:

“Whence small galvanometer of fine wire was placed in the circuit in my study

and a small electrometer, consisting of a plate of zinc of about a tenth of an

inch in width and the end of the wire (551 ?th?] an inch) for a negative element,

the needle [of the galvanometer] was deflected showing that this small gal-

vanic [d.c.] arrangement was sufficient to send a current through [?left blank

by Henry?] feet of wire and [?left blank by Henry?] feet of earth.”

In his laboratory note book record [1] for that day he wrote:

“Two poles supported by tripods formed of long slats of boards, were placed

upright in the back campus, and over the tops of these a part of a wire was

stretched parallel to the wire, through the old college, and of a length equal to

the whole breadth of the campus. This wire was continued backward on each

side, until it extended to the two halls, it then crossed over with the two ends

united, so as to form a complete parallelogram.”

(b) A magnetometer for measuring the strength of magnetism and polarity

due to the transmitted signal, described by Prof. Henry on June 2™ 1842. [1

and 7; pp. 275-276] Method given by Prof. Henry for using his magnetometer.

On June 2nd of 1842, Henry also described the way in which his magnetometer

instrument in the laboratory was used to measure the magnitude (or equiva-

lently, degree or intensity) of magnetization of a steel needle, and its polarity as

follows:

“IT have mentioned that I had prepared[?] a new magnetometer, and since I

have referred to it several times, yesterday, to day it will be best before going

farther to describe the instrument. It is on the same principle as the instrument

described [on] page [?left blank?]. The index needle is formed of a slender

sewing needle 2 inches long, and balanced by a piece of wood at the larger end,

(Thus see margin) and suspended by a fine silk filament in a paper stirrup[?].

The suspension string is at right angles to the plane of a graduated circle, and

this is covered by a piece of mica cut out at one corner, so that the needle to be

experimented on may [be] approached sufficiently near the end of the index

needle. The sides of the figure are enclosed by glass. The oscillations of the

needle are stopped by the glass plate, which is placed directly across the zero

point. The repulsion of the needles drives the index from its point of rest, and

the extreme dynamic deflection gives the magnetic force required. The for[c]e

in this case is the vis viva. The operation of this instrument was very satisfac-

tory.”

" The usually wooden cover used to prevent leaves and debris from falling into the well.

118 GLUCKMAN

In the field, Prof. Henry may have simply placed a magnetic compass near the

magnetized needle. As per his June atmospheric experiment on dynamic induc-

tion from lightning, the needle point may have been stuck into a cork stopper

and placed into a glass tube around which the coil wire could be formed. The coil

wire could have been “commercial cork wire’’.

periment on October 7th, he explicitly wrote [1 & 7] that he used

**. , . the needle placed in the helix used in the study for atmospheric electric-

S 39

ity

Table 1.—Description of the Induction-at-a-Distance Experiments Performed on October 7, 1842 [1 and 7]

Experiment number: |

Source: 3 jars of the French battery

Distance between 1° and 2° circuits: 60 feet between the closest parallel wires of the two circuits”

Descriptive remarks: “Two poles” supported by tripods formed of long slats of boards, were placed upright

in the back campus”. These poles supported a part of the 2° wire stretched over their tops and parallel

to the 1° wire in Nassau Hall. This wire was continued backward on each side, until it extended to the

two [Society] halls, it then crossed over with the two ends united, so as to form a “‘complete

parallelogram”. “A needle placed in a helix connected with the secondary wire was strongly magnetized”.

Experiment number: 2a

Source: A battery of 3 Leyden jars that were charged using his machine. A single discharge of the battery was

made to the 1° wire that was grounded in a well.

Distance between 1° and 2° circuits: 90 feet between the closest parallel wires of the two circuits

Descriptive remarks: This experiment was repeated several times using.a single needle each time. Did Henry

use an intermediary calibration jar (i.e., his unit flask) of the Lane type to determine the quantity of

charge? The “‘needles were magnetized to a degree scarcely less than” experiment |.

Experiment number: 2b

Source: | jar, same wire arrangement as experiment 2a.

Distance between 1° and 2° circuits: 90 feet between the closest parallel wires of the two circuits

Descriptive remarks: The experiment was done once only, and the needle in the helix was “strongly magnetic”’.

Experiment number: 3

Source: “The jar was removed, and [using the machine] a single spark [was] thrown on to the suspended end

of the conducting wire, while the other end was connected with the rubber”.

Distance between 1° and 2° circuits: 90 feet between the closest parallel wires of the two circuits.

Descriptive remarks: Same wire arrangement as experiment 2b. “The needle with this [arrangement] was

also magnetic but apparently not quite as strongly as before.”

Experiment number: 4

Source: 3 jars gapped to the primary circuit

Distance between the 1° and 2° circuits: 165 feet between the 1° circuit wire in Nassau Hall and the parallel

part of the 2° circuit wire ‘“‘stretched between the two upper windows” above the doors closest to Nassau

Hall of the entries of the “parallel colleges” (see diagram 1)

Descriptive remarks: The 2° “wire was removed from the long poles, and the parallel part stretched [across

the breadth of the back campus] between the two upper windows” of the two parallel colleges that are

over the entry doors closest to Nassau Hall.

' The terms 1° and 2° mean primary and secondary respectively.

) The height of the poles is not mentioned in Henry’s surviving notes.

* Arago suggested the use of the wire helix for magnetization to Felix Savary in the 1820s. Savary was a

Professor at the Ecole Polytechnique in Paris, France. Henry had studied the researchers of Savary, and

adopted the use of the magnetizing wire helix for his own subsequent experiments as a detector device for these

electrical oscillating pulses.

a — Saasors

ET ee

PROF. HENRY’S ELECTRICAL SIGNAL EXPERIMENTS 119

from his studies on dynamic induction from lightning discharge. The coil that

he used was described on June 10th. It was [1 & 7]

“a compound spiral. . . [which] was formed of 6 strata [layers] of wire, each

consisting of 45 spires [turns], and insulated by cement.”

I interpret from an earlier reference in his laboratory notes of the point and

eye of a needle, that he continued to use an ordinary steel sewing needle (Ameri-

can manufacturing specification size no. 5) in the same coil that he used as a

detector in his atmospheric experiments of June 10, 1842, on dynamic induc-

tion from lightning. In fact, on Monday, May 16, 1842, Prof. Henry wrote that

he used

‘“‘a medium sized sewing needle”

_ for magnetization in a spiral that day. He also wrote about his use of a

“slender sewing needle 2 inches long”

in his laboratory note of June 2, 1842, as reported above in section 2(b). The

helix and needle together comprised a detector for the signal. The degree and

polarity of magnetization of the steel needle could be determined either roughly

with a pocket compass, or with the magnetometer device that is described in

section 2(b).

3. Critique of the transmission experiments made on October 7th and 8th,

1842. There is no extant description of any insulation measures that may have

been taken for the 400 foot length of copper wire through Nassau Hall, other

than the description of using silk ribbon at the windows of all three buildings to

support the wire and prevent it from being grounded by touching the masonry at

the window locations.

In his June 10th, 1842 atmospheric experiments on lightning discharge,

Henry stuck a needle into a cork stopper which he then placed into his vertically

_ positioned helix. He used the compound spiral coil that is described above in

section 2(c), which was interconnected into the grounded circuit of his June

10th lightning experiments. The wire coil (possibly of fine ““commercial cork

wire’) could have been threaded around a glass tube (the wire loops being

without question insulated by cement), in the manner he reported in his labora-

tory notes, and which is described above in section 2(c) of this paper. Henry

inter-connected this coil into the secondary circuit in these experiments of Oc-

tober 7 and 8, of 1842.

In charging the flasks that he used in these experiments, Prof. Henry used a

hand cranked grounded friction machine. In his method of charging the Leyden

jar capacitor (1.e., condenser), he would count the sparks. The friction machine

120 GLUCKMAN

using a rubber is but one kind of electrostatic machine or generator. The other

kind of electrostatic machine is the induction machine, such as the Holtz ma-

chine or the Wimshurst machine. A modern kind of electrostatic machine is the

Van de Graaff generator. The Wimshurst machine might still be handily used

today in certain applications.

The degree and polarity of magnetization of the steel needles used in these

experiments would be tested at some time during or after the experiment on a

magnetically responsive torsion balance device modelled after the Coulomb

torsion balance device (See section 2b above). He would note the direction of the

turning of the recording needle of the torsion device (i.e., its direction (+ or —)

and degree of deflection/torsion). The magnitude of the swing of the recording

needle indicated the strength/intensity of the current. Another simple measure

which was often adopted was to use the magnetic compass as Orsted had done,

with the compass held or laid near to a galvanic wire. The alternating current in

these out-of-doors dynamic induction-at-a-distance experiments was transient.

A travelling pulse of oscillations was sent along the primary wire.

Prof. Henry remarked that

“The needles in all the above mentioned experiments [shown here as experi-

ments 1, 2a, 2b, 3, & 4] were magnetized in the same direction. . .”

In experiments 5a and 5b, the forward parallel line of the secondary wire was

moved farther away from Nassau Hall to the distance of 220 feet. It was

stretched between the two upper windows of

‘the farther entry of the parallel buildings.. . . The needle placed in the helix

[in the previous experiments]. . . was again magnetic, and 1n the same direc-

tion as in” [ref. 1; p. 8, & ref. 7; p. 100]

experiments |, 2a, 2b, 3, and 4. Refer to diagram | for a depiction of the layout

of the wire. This primary circuit had ground return through the dry soil consist-

ing of compact shale, according to J. H. Lefroy, who in his letter of October 25,

1842 to Edward Sabine [8], stated that the distance of the helix in the secondary

circuit (containing the needle to be magnetized) was set at about 600 feet. See

also Lefroy’s diary, page 173. There is no indication as to whether the helix was

located in the forefront part or the rearward part of the parallelogram shaped

wire circuit. There is no existing description here of the construction of any

wooden support poles or any existing further information about insulation of

the secondary wire circuit at this distance. Henry recorded that the weather on

October 8, 1842, was damp, and that

‘In the morning a very heavy fog rested on the ground—until about 10 oclock

AM.” [ref. 1 and 7]

PROF. HENRY’S ELECTRICAL SIGNAL EXPERIMENTS 121

Table 2.—Description of the Induction-at-a-Distance Experiments Performed on October 8, 1842 (a Damp

Day)

Experiment number: 5a

Source: 3 jars

Distance between 1° and 2° circuits: 220 feet = 165’ + 50’, which is the total distance between the 1° circuit

wire in Nassau Hall and the parallel part of the 2° circuit wire.

Descriptive remarks: Secondary wire placed across the breadth of the back campus (i.e., the old campus

behind Nassau Hall), at the distance from the farthest doors of the parallel colleges to Nassau Hall. The

wire was supported at the windows above these entry doors, and was stretched between the two upper

windows of “the farther entry of the parallel buildings”. (See diagram 1).

Experiment number: 5b

Source: | jar

Distance between 1° and 2° circuits: 220 feet

Descriptive remarks: Same as in experiment 5a: the needle was magnetized in the same direction as in the

previous experiments, ““but not to the same degree of intensity”.

Experiment numbers: 6a, 6b, & 6c

Source: not known

Distance between 1° and 2° circuits: not known from Henry’s surviving notes, although J. H. Lefroy (see

Appendix III) mentioned a distance of about 600’. It could have been 300’.

Descriptive remarks: The secondary wire circuit is formed into a parallelogram, whose “‘farthest side was in

the field beyond the society halls.’? Therefore, the farthest side of the 2° circuit (i.e., the parallelogram

of wire with the inter-connected small helical coil) is greater than 304’ from the 1° wire in Nassau Hall.

Nothing was reported about insulation of the 2° circuit wire from the ground in experiments 6a, 6b, & 6c.

' J. Henry, London, Edinburgh & Dublin Phil. Magazine & Journal of Science, 30, series 3 (1847) 186: Proc.

American Philosophical Society, iv, p. 260: American Journal of Science, 3 (1847) 25.

* The Society hills evidently lie behind the two Society halls at the fartherest extension of the old back

campus. The distance between the back of Nassau Hall facing the back campus, and the front of the two

Society halls is 304 feet.

From the testimonies (Appendixes II and III) we infer two different setups for

the primary wire. The first arrangement is earlier in time (1835 and 1836) and is

a daniell d.c. battery. Because Prof. Henry’s laboratory notebook entry for May

12, 1840, noted that he used a daniell battery, and because of its electrical output

characteristics, I am inclined to believe that he used this in his 1842 direct

current test of the primary circuit. According to Lefroy’s letter [8], the coil for

the direct current test was introduced into the circuit in Prof. Henry’s house,

before exiting the line of wire towards the other well by his house. The purpose of

this earlier 1835 and 1836 arrangement seems to be for the empowerment of an

electromagnet to do work in causing a bell to ring for the purpose of communica-

tion. In this primary circuit, ground return closes the current between the two

wells.

The 1842 primary circuit arrangement (in contradistinction to his 1835-6

setup) is mentioned in the testimonies (see both Appendixes) and is the one that

is described by Henry [1 & 7] in his Laboratory notes of October of 1842, which

carried a pulse of alternating current. In this setup, the primary wire is high

122 GLUCKMAN

above ground having passed to “‘the two upper ones [windows] of the East end of

the old college [Nassau] hall” [1 & 7]. The primary wire arrangement is

grounded at both ends in water wells. The primary wire passed through Prof.

Henry’s study in his house on the West side of the campus, exited through a

window and was grounded in his water well. His electrostatic machine consist-

ing of the prime conductor and rubber was located in his cabinet on the second

floor of Philosophy Hall at the East side of the old front campus.

I can not determine from the remaining historical record of these experi-

ments, how the rearwards portion of the parallelogram configuration of the

secondary circuit was positioned so as to insulate it from the ground, if indeed it

was. The primary circuit acted as a transmission line terminating in a character-

istic impedance.

Experiments of October 1843

4. Description of the direct current tests on Monday, Oct. 16, in preparation

of the circuits for the discharge to the primary and the induction of the secondary

circuit wires. From what can be reconstructed from the description of the

setup for Oct. 16, Prof. Henry stretched a line of copper bell wire across the

breadth of the front campus from the second storey window of Philosophical

Hall to the second storey window of his study in his home, the line then being

continued out through another window to end at a water connection in the well

situated next to his house for grounding. According to this reconstruction of

these events, I envision that there was a sag 1n the 400 foot length of copper bell

wire across the 315 foot wide campus, in front of Nassau Hall, which would

resemble the appearance of wire hanging between telephone poles today.

Refer to Prof. Henry’s remarks in Appendix IV, for his description of the

arrangement of the primary and secondary wires, and for his method of testing,

by which he was able to determine the poor conductivity of the soil between the

two wells on the front campus.

The long length of copper bell wire was insulated at the windows by being

overlain across the top of an insulating tube (supposed to have been made of

wir ¢ 6 =

Fig. 1. Henry’s own hand-drawn picture of his insulation technique of 1843

PROF. HENRY’S ELECTRICAL SIGNAL EXPERIMENTS £23

glass) which had been slipped over a round wooden stick emplaced horizontally

into the frame of the window, as

“the stick was then fastened across the window” [1; vol III, pp. 70-76]

The end of the primary circuit wire in Philosophical Hall went to his “‘cabi-

net” where his batteries of one jar and of three jars, and his machine were kept.

Another length of wire ran in turn, from there as grounding, out of the window

The Fitz-Randolph Gate facing Nassau street

well North

Old Maclean

house

Henry i machine

: |

West .

College College

Diagram 2. Sketch of the campus of the College of New Jersey at Princeton, circa 1843, showing approxi-

mate locations of wiring

124 GLUCKMAN

at the side of Philosophical Hall, ending in a water connection in Mr. Clow’s

well.

5. Discharge signal experiments performed in October 17 and 19,

1843. Two classes of discharge experiments were considered in this series of

examinations, for the mutual field effects of a pair of very long wires across the

breadth of the front campus at Princeton. The class of experiments done on Oct.

18, where the primary and secondary wires were about 18 inches apart, is of no

concern for the purpose of this paper. In the other class of experiments that were

conducted on October 17th and 19th, which is of concern to us, the secondary

wire was far removed from the primary wire, and the layout of the wires is shown

in diagram 2.

The following tests were made by Prof. Henry, whereby he determined the

‘adverse’ nature of the current of the secondary circuit, the principal oscillation

amplitude of the transient pulse being found to be of opposite sign (or in other

words, of opposite polarity). The adverse nature was determined from the re-

sulting polarity of magnetized needles after discharge.

The secondary line of wire lay between Maclean’s well and Dr. Carnahan’s

well, and it was far apart (i.e., removed) from the parallel line of primary wire in

front of Nassau Hall running from Philosophy Hall to Prof. Henry’s study.

Chart | outlines the methodology of the class of test series of interest for the

primary and secondary circuit wires far removed from each other.

6. On the possibility of ground return from the secondary wire. Prof. Henry

excluded ground return currents as a possibility for explaining the observed

magnetization effect at a distance from the source. The conductivity of the soil

at Princeton is of the order of 10~* siemen per meter (or in other words, 10E-03.

siemen/m) and the conductivity of annealed standard copper wire at usual

temperatures is about 5.8 < 10’ siemens per meter; which is at least of ten

powers of magnitude greater than the soil conductivity. If for example, experi-

ment no. | is examined for its conductivity, it becomes immediately obvious

that the recorded electromagnetic effect in the large loop of copper wire (1.e., the

secondary wire circuit) will maintain the path of its current in the loop; and in no

way, can an earth current be established from the loop to return to the primary

wire.

7. The magnetization of the steel needles in the coil was caused by a transient

alternating electric current in the secondary wire, and this current was induced

by electromagnetic waves. Henry believed that the transmission in distance

would increase with an increase in the length of his wires in the parallel wire

arrangement. But it does not seem that he was concerned with the possibility of

transmitting intelligent communication over distances, but rather with the i1n-

ductive effects themselves, as regards polarity and intensity. Because ground

PROF. HENRY’S ELECTRICAL SIGNAL EXPERIMENTS 125

Chart 1.—Outline of the October 1843 Test Series

Date Test no. Remarks

Tuesday, Oct. 17 l Deflections ‘” of needles magnetized in coils (interconnected

with the secondary wire), by a discharge from one Leyden

jar. SEE Table 2. The spiral used in each discharge is

identified by number or letter).

Table 1.—One jar

Experiment

group a 1 eZ. 3 4 Remarks

1 HD) SWS ll =5 =3) highly charged

2 == JA) = 8 = 15 =3) =|

3 —20 =Ik0) —18 = 3 =|

4A —45 —45 —40 —20 —4

4B —45 = ys) OS = stronger charge—loud snap

5A DS) al as —4 =)

5B = 7/ = 112 = —0

RESULT. “all the [above] results give an induced current opposite to that of the [discharging] battery” [1].

Date Test no. Remarks

Tuesday, Oct. 17 2 Deflections ™ of needles magnetized in coils © (interconnected with the

secondary wire), by a discharge from two Leyden jars. SEE Table 1.

Table 2.—Two jars

Experiment

group a ] 2 3 4

1 AD) = 3 =i = —0

2 —20 —20) =3) = =?

" These deflections were measured in relative units of measure.

° J. Henry designated by the letter a, the coil he used in his lightning discharge experiments of June 2,

1842, and his inducation at a distance experiments of October 1842.

Date Test no. Remarks

Tuesday, Oct. 17 3 Tests performed using a coil of about 300 turns of wire, attached into the

secondary wire, with a needle suspended in the center. A movement

of the needle occurred when the alternating current transient was

passed from the discharge of a Leyden jar. With three jars, the

movement of the needle was greater. Reversal of the discharge still

indicated a current adverse to the discharge current of the primary

circuit.

RESULT. Movement of the needle occurred when the a.c. was passed from the discharge of a Leyden

jar. With 3 jars, the movement of the needle was greater. Reversal of the discharge still

indicated a current adverse to the discharge current of the primary circuit.

NOTE. Some other experiments were performed on October 17th; and Prof. Henry also mentioned that

he used Dr. Franklin’s battery of 24 jars with a charge of 100 units. The weather had become

more damp.

Date Test no. Remarks

Thursday, Oct. 19 4 The “‘adverse”’ effect of the discharge current was also determined by

means of a method that was due to C. Matteucci (Annals de chimie

1847).

126 GLUCKMAN

return currents can be ruled out, the question naturally arises as to whether Prof.

Henry was observing an effect that was due to magnetic induction or an effect

that was due to the creation and detection of electromagnetic waves. A crude

means by which a decision can be attempted as to whether the observed magne-

tization effect was due to the presence of electromagnetic waves, is to model the

primary wire as straight and parallel to and situated at a sufficient height above

the ground, and calculate an approximate value for the frequency, and see if this

value is in the range of radio spectra. Therefore, given

The parameters describing the primary circuit wire

length 2 =400 feet = 12,192 cm

diameter d = 0.05 inch = 0.127 cm

heighth =19feet =579.12 cm

and using the appropriate formulas [9] for estimation of capacity C for a single

wire parallel to the ground, (for which by algebraic reduction, I derived a simpler

version of formula 117 on page 237 of Ref. 9), and for the estimation of induc-

tance L for a fine copper wire,

C = 0.24162 + [logig (4h/d) + logy A];

A=(€ + Ve? +d?) = (€ + Ve? + 16h?)

L = 0.0022[2.303 log,, (42/d) — 0.75]

and the formulas for frequency f = 1/27\)LC and wavelength \ = cf"! (where c =

2.997 x 108 meters per second, is the velocity of the propagation of light in air

according to A. A. Michelson), the following can be shown:

Comparative estimations of electromagnetic parameters for

a primary wire of a 400 foot (121.92 m) length

C = 691.92 x 107! farads

L = 295.31 X 10°° hernies

f ~ 3.52 X 10° cycles/sec or Hz

\ = 850.8 meters/cycle

The magnetization of the steel needle in every experiment was caused by the

induction of a transient alternating electric current in the secondary wire. The

record of the October 1843 experiments shows that the negative polarity of the

magnetization of the steel needle is a remnant that corresponds to the positive

polarity of the initial electric current alternation in the primary wire. The initial

alternation of current possessed the greatest amplitude in this ringing of the

circuits.

PROF. HENRY’S ELECTRICAL SIGNAL EXPERIMENTS 127

The steel needle and the coil surrounding it, together constitute the detector of

the transient field of the wave at time approximately r/c (r being the approxi-

mate distance between the two circuits) after transmittal of the wave from the

primary wire, since the primary and secondary circuit elements are not infinitesi-

mal in size. A train of waves in these experiments, corresponded to a single

spark. The activating of a train of waves and current oscillations is called ringing

the circuit. From the standpoint of human cognition, the intellectual recogni-

tion of the existence of this magnetization event may be considered to be the

signal. From a physical standpoint however, the signal may be considered to be

the actual physical event itself. The detected wave was wireless.

Acknowledgements

I wish to thank Prof. Hugo F. Sonnenschein, Provost of Princeton University,

and Mr. Eugene J. McPartland of the Office of the Vice President for Facilities at

Princeton University, for their assistance in procuring various measurements of

the buildings and distances on the grounds of the old campus. I also thank Dr.

Marc Rothenberg, editor of The Papers of Joseph Henry for coaxing me with

gentle humor to strengthen my concluding remarks.

References

1. Joseph Henry, experiment on Oct. 8th, 1842, Laboratory Notebook, Volume III, Box 21, Record of

Exp[eriments], 1834-1862; Papers: Research and Lectures, Smithsonian Archives, Washington, D.C.

2. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society. Vol. II. August, Sept. & Oct., 1842. No. 23, page 229.

“Stated Meeting, Oct. 21. Present, thirty-nine members”.

3. Smithsonian Report for 1865, page 18.

4. A Memorial of Joseph Henry, Smithsonian Institution, Government Printing Office, 1880, published by

order of Congress (L. C. call no. Q143.H6 S7):

i. William B. Taylor, page 306;

ii. Henry Clay Cameron, page 174;

iii. Joseph Henry in a letter to Rev. S. B. Dod, from the City of Washington, December 4, 1876. Refer to

Roman numeral I on page 150;

iv. Henry Clay Cameron, page 172;

v. William B. Taylor, page 243;

vi. Joseph Henry in a letter to Rev. S. B. Dod, from Washington, D. C., December 4, 1876. Refer to

Roman numeral IV on pp. 151-152;

vii. S. B. Dod, “Discourse, by Rev. S. B. Dod’, page 143.

5. Ernest B. Rutherford, “Magnetization of Iron by High-frequency Discharges”, Trans. of the New Zealand

Institute, vol. 27 (1894) pp. 481-513. See also The Collected Papers of Lord Rutherford of Nelson, vol. 1, pp.

25-57, Interscience Publishers Inc., New York 1962 (L.C. QC3.R93).

6. E. B. Rutherford, ““A Magnetic Detector of Electrical Waves and some of its Applications”, Philosophical

Transactions of the Royal Society, 1897, ser. A, vol. 189, pp. 1-24 (Received June 11—Read June 18,

1896). See also The Collected Papers of Lord Rutherford of Nelson, pp. 80-104.

7. Albert G. Gluckman, Selected Passages on Magnetic Induction and inductive Phenomena, taken from the

Laboratory Notes of Joseph Henry, Research Notes and Memoranda of Applied Geometry for Prevenient

Natural Philosophy, POST-RAAG Reports, Extra Number 12 (January 1986) Libr. Congress no. Q1.R45

Extra no. 12 and QC 754.2.M33. Refer also to the Science Museum at South Kensington, London, UK.

The source of these notes is found in the Archives of the Smithsonian Institution in Record Unit 7001,

Joseph Henry Collection, 1808, 1825-1878, and related papers to circa 1903, Box 21, Volumes | and 2.

128 GLUCKMAN

8. Sabine Papers, Records of Kew Observatory, Public Record Office, London: Sabine Papers, section BJ3/

35, Transcripts of Crown-copyright records in the Public Record Office.

(a) See also: The Papers of Joseph Henry, vol. 5, October 25, 1842. pp. 281-287, Smithsonian Institution,

City of Washington. Refer especially to pp. 283-284. (L.C. no. Q143.H52A1).

9. Radio Instruments and Measurements, National Bureau of Standards circular C74, Edition of 1924 re-

printed in 1937 (L.C. call no. TK6550.U58).

Appendix I

Suggestion Made by Faraday in 1846 for Explaining the Action of Radiant Phenomena

Including Gravitation, by Transverse Vibrations of Lines of Force Instead of an Aether

In his Note, Faraday hypothesized that

“‘a notion which as far as it is admitted, will dispense with the aether.. . . The

consideration of matter under this view gradually led me to look at the lines of

force as being perhaps the seat of the vibrations of radiant phenomena.”

“The power of electric conduction (being a transmission of force equal in

velocity to that of light) appears to be tied up in and dependent upon the

properties of the matter, and is, as it were, existent in them.”

‘“‘Whatever the view adopted respecting them may be, we can, at all events,

affect these lines of force in a manner which may be Eonecivc’ as partaking of

the nature of a shake or lateral vibration.”

“It may be asked, what lines of force are there in nature which are fitted to

convey such an action and supply for the vibrating theory the place of the

aether? I do not pretend [t]o answer this question with any confidence; all I

can say is, that I do not perceive in any part of space, whether (to use the

common phrase) vacant or filled with matter, anything but forces and the

lines in which they are exerted. The lines of weight or gravitating force are,

certainly, extensive enough to answer in this respect any demand made upon

them by radiant phenomena... .”

“The view which I am so bold as to put forth considers, therefore, radiation

as a high species of vibration in the lines of force which are known to connect

particles and also masses of matter together. It endeavours to dismiss the

aether, but not the vibration.”

Appendix II

Testimonies Concerning Placement of Primary Circuit Wire in 1835 and 1836

These testimonies in Appendix II concern that setup arrangement of the

primary circuit in the earlier years (1835 and 1836), it being different from the

setup arrangement (or placement) of the primary circuit wire in the experiments

in 1842.

PROF. HENRY’S ELECTRICAL SIGNAL EXPERIMENTS 129

The end attachments of the primary circuit wire were located in each well.

This circuit wire seems to have gone from the window of the upper story of the

library building, down to what seem to have been insulating supports located on

the grounds of the “front campus” facing (i.e., in front of ) Nassau Hall; and then

across the breadth of the front campus at about ground level, and up into a

window in Philosophical Hall, thence out a window, and then down into the

second well for grounding. Refer to diagrams | and 2 above, and to the pictures

drawn by Henry in his Laboratory Notebook [1] on page 6, of the date Oct. 6,

1842, for an illustration of the setup of his primary circuit.

Prof. Henry [4.111] gave the following description of the setup for his primary

wire arrangement in a letter that he wrote to the Reverend S. B. Dod, on De-

cember 4, 1876.

“T think the first actual line of telegraph using the earth as a conductor was

made in the beginning of 1836. A wire was extended across the front campus

of the college grounds, from the upper story of the library building to the

philosophical hall on the opposite side, the ends terminating in two wells.

Through this wire, signals were sent, from time to time, from my house to my

laboratory.”

Another description of the setup of Prof. Henry’s primary wire arrangement

was given by Prof. Henry Clay Cameron [4.iv]

“From his lecture-room to the opposite building, and thence to his house,

which was the house now occupied by General Kargé, but then standing on

the site of Re-Union Hall, stretched a wire, through which currents of electric-

ity were sent that rang bells and thus conveyed messages.”

William B. Taylor [4.v]:

“In 1835, wires had been extended across the front campus of the college

grounds at Princeton from the upper story of the library building to the Philo-

sophical Hall on the opposite side, through which signals were occasionally

sent, distinguished by the number of taps of the electro-magnetic bell... .”

~ Appendix III

Testimonies Concerning the Placement of the Primary Circuit Wire in 1842

In the experiments of October 1842, the primary circuit wire extended

through the second story of Nassau Hall, elevated high above the ground.

A description of the primary wire arrangement used in the series of 1842

experiments is found in a letter from the English military officer John Henry

Lefroy to Edward Sabine [9].

“He [Henry] leads a wire 400 ft from his Physical Cabinet [Laboratory room]

to his house, where it joins an helix, and is conducted into a well. At the other

end he forms a dimutive battery of about halfinch plates, also communicating

130 GLUCKMAN

"The above sketch will serve to

give an idea of the arrangement”

aN a

: 3

Fig. 2. Henry’s own hand-drawn picture of his primary wire layout of October 1842

with another well there. In (making) immersing the plates a (circuit) current

is transmitted which magnetizes the needles in the helix, the circuit being

completed only through the dry soil (compact shale) between the two wells.

He finds that every machine™ spark he makes in his cabinet [laboratory

room], magnetizes a needle in an helix formed in a wire entirely unconnected

with the machine, or the building, and about 600 ft distant.”

The following account appears in to The Papers of Joseph Henry [8a].

“For Henry’s account of the meeting with Lefroy, see Record of Experi-

ments, October 15, 1842, above. The experiment Lefroy described is in the

Record of Experiments entries of October 6, 7, and 8, 1842, above. Henry and

ein yatoe ee

Philosophical

Hal]

Fig. 3. Henry’s own hand-drawn picture of his primary and secondary wire layout of October 1843 on the

old front campus

P This description is the same as found in Prof. Henry’s description of the preliminary test on the primary

circuit that was made on the morning of October 6, 1842. The well by Dr. Carnahan’s house was about 7.5 feet

across, and the well by the Maclean house was about 6.25 feet across.

9 The electrostatic friction machine with the grounded leather “‘rubber’’.

" Also refer to Lefroy’s Diary, page 173.

PROF. HENRY’S ELECTRICAL SIGNAL EXPERIMENTS 131

Lefroy took their magnetic measurements in ‘Mr. Clow’s Field,’ two hundred

yards [editor] southwest of the college (Lefroy, diary, p. 173), the same field in

which Henry’s electrical experiment was set up.”

Appendix IV

Monday, October 16, 1843. The Experimental Setup

According to Prof. Henry, on the afternoon of Monday, October 16, 1843, he

“‘Arranged . . . a wire across the campus for transmitting a discharge of

electricity from™ + the Phil[osophical] Hall to the well opposite our house”

[after having entered/ingressed and exited/egressed], and back through the

ground to Mr[.] Clow’s well at the end of Phil. Hall.” [1; vol. II, pp. 70-76]

Monday, October 16, 1843. The Testing of the Earth Connections of the Primary and

Secondary Circuits with Direct Currents

Prof. Henry

“tested by means of the galvanometer with the[?] small single battery, the

negative element of which was formed of a silver thimble, and the positive of a

single point of zinc plate.. . . When the circuit[?] was completed, the needle

was violently agitated by[?] the mere touching of the point of zinc to the

surface of the acid’’.

* This line of wire was “‘stretched across the campus [breadth] in front of Nassau Hall’’, according to Henry.

‘In the old Franklin single fluid theory, + indicates the excess of electricity; that is, the terminal of Henry’s

primary wire was at the indicated source of charge.

" After having entered and egressed via the windows at the upper storeys of the two buildings, in accordance

with the remarks made by Prof. Henry [4.iii] in his letter to S. B. Dod of December 4, 1876, and Prof. Clay

Cameron’s remarks [4.iv], in which there were described the layout of the primary wire for Prof. Henry’s

earlier experiments in 1836, according to Henry.

h 3 ‘sibel ou oBaite wD Miia

a ka pt btod, sirise sat (EYE a4 ii

af £281 AP radongO , (shih oamomnahe a 09, aos

es) ae ee ee < Se 8@ tae Dae Che gat ran

chugging tng inant ne TOL aeqiies Sriieos. swe

a) * Wig tie slinonce [ow ani a fickt Flpicdierice Nts cori ie at Me

‘ott deuowlt sad bt {be oarao alin big | Baber arg DPN, |

1av~OVeqa tt tay Sl) ‘ehh, dit "icy Tae “syle te Uhonee @ aint clade aM

te enorizenna y etre) otin guiteaT of T LGR ort

Gelibacth Vda MVE ee eid, ther a

wa 6

, Ee ‘ 4 ,

I : * . A 4 * ay ase toss “4 sag, a ae te 4 ,.

er +4 ; wy eee, 6 war | Orit Sieg) ‘ Pay > i ve i é at a oi St hae bey thee :

. rn r . i y J x i 4 es ; ’ r nae : * i 7

Sse Srp bets lentes tie eine hoa ie RE see Pris os

yl? 1 errigsue? aiuirn sli ISive me?

. - Ors

Riis ee die bt “lorie adie Pa. cr hatsiertiteal Sl

y aot ai : u

P *

{

7 +

" ti

pyres Par es ae las | ‘p prenites 8 aceanee os weer” paw 54 ws Ver oe at ‘ Le

\ Hip Wires ep feet yi HALES plo ota

E p ri x ae ae 7 283 P. La. + Sgt ry a5 ee

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences,

Volume 82, Number 3, Pages 133-159, September 1992

Development of Psychology at The

Catholic University of America

Bruce M. Ross

The Catholic University of America

ABSTRACT

Problems and controversies are described that surrounded the introduction of psychology

as an academic subject in 1892 at The Catholic University of America in Washington, DC.

This undertaking was a true pioneering effort, since it was the first time any university under

Catholic auspices had made a psychology laboratory course a part of its curriculum. The

unfolding aims and achievements of the Psychology Department, now celebrating its cen-

tennial, are described by detailing the views and accomplishments of its two forceful early

leaders, Edward A. Pace and Thomas Verner Moore. Note is taken of the Department’s

leadership role in its early establishment of psychological clinics, a counseling center, and

schools for special populations. Perspectives, particularly in regard to theoretical assump-

tions, are broadened by comparing developments in psychology at Catholic University with

temporally parallel developments at the leading Catholic institutions in Europe.

Development of Psychology at the Catholic University of America

In discussing the origin and subsequent course of an academic department,

more is often said about shifting personnel and courses than about the rationale

for instituting a department and the nature of the department’s reigning ideas. I

have emphasized the latter, not because of any value judgment, but because the

material is available, as it rarely is, to permit an in-depth approach. In my

concentration on the ideas of the first two departmental chairpersons who were

in charge of psychology at Catholic University—either as chair or dean—for a

total of 56 years, I have doubtless slighted the contributions of other depart-

mental members during this period. But in searching the sources available to

me, I have been able to find only passing references to other department

members. Certainly no marked divergence from the leadership exerted by the

two dominant leaders has come to light. Also, it should be kept in mind that at

least until 1941, this small department operated much in the European tradi-

tion, with the senior professor setting the agenda for the research undertaken by

the graduate students. The most recent 30 years of the department await a future

133

134 BRUCE M. ROSS

chronicler, but my prejudice as an onlooker for much of this period is that recent

years have shown more mainstream progress but less drama than the earlier

period.

Early Years: Contributions of E. A. Pace

In considering academic disciplines from the standpoint of their ability to

generate strong opposition and bitter controversy, including condemnatory ob-

jections from organized religion, experimental psychology would seem to be one

of the more unlikely candidates. If today one were to consider which academic

disciplines would be most likely to stir people’s ire, topics might be mentioned

that can be found in sociology, economics, intellectual history, and those re-

cently organized cross-disciplinary fields that deal with sexual and minority

studies. A century ago, particularly for the Catholic church and particularly in

America, the situation was quite different; the new experimental psychology

promulgated by Wilhelm Wundt and other learned German professors was in

many quarters viewed with great suspicion. Never mind that at that early date in

academic psychology, study was largely confined to the description and mea-

surement of sensation and perception. Therefore, when the young priest Edward

A. Pace returned from Wundt’s Leipzig laboratory in 1891 to begin a professor-

ship of psychology at the brand new Catholic University of America, writings

and talks justifying the place of this innovative subject in the curriculum formed

a large part of the new Ph.D.’s scholarly output at that time and for many years

thereafter. Justification was all the more urgent because the original faculty of

this newly instituted university, confined solely to graduate teaching, consisted

of no more than a dozen priests and religious brothers. Thus the variety of

courses that could be offered was quite limited.

There were a number of reasons why Catholics, particularly those in the

Catholic hierarchy, considered experimental psychology to be incompatible

with their religious beliefs. One factual reason was that during the second half of

the nineteenth century several German adherents of the “new” psychology, as it

was then called, left the Catholic church. Obviously, participation in psychology

was dangerous to religious faith. Among these Catholic apostates were Carl

Stumpf, who was to hold the prestigious Berlin chair in psychology for many

years; August Messer and Karle Marbe, prominent investigators of the Wurz-

burg School; and most influential of all, the ex-priest Franz Brentano who had,

however, actually resigned because of disagreement with church doctrine pro-

mulgated at the First Vatican Council. This post-Darwinian period was full of

clashes between science and religion within many Christian churches, but

within the Catholic Church the clash between psychology and religion was espe-

cially sharp because an important cornerstone of Catholic philosophical teach-

SEE

PSYCHOLOGY AT THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY 135

ing was philosophical (or rational) psychology, based primarily on the teachings

of St. Thomas Aquinas. Thus, Misiak and Staudt, (1954) authors of the most

comprehensive volume on Catholic psychology in America, claim that the pri-

mary reason that Catholicism and the new psychology were deemed incompati-

ble seems to have been the inability of Catholic scholars to recognize a real

distinction between experimental and philosophical psychology. They consid-

ered the soul of philosophical psychology as the ultimate subject matter, and

therefore could not see how psychology could ever be an experimental study.

The very possibility of a laboratory approach was precluded, they believed, by

the nature of the subject matter, the immateriality of the soul. For this reason the

new psychology came to be labeled among these Catholic philosophers as ““The

psychology without a soul.” Father Hughes of St. Louis University in an article

of 1894 quoted by Misiak and Staudt stated: ““A man has to forswear his belief in

a truth of Christian faith and must be willing to admit that his soul is no more

spiritual than his eye, if he wishes to have anything to do with the new psychol-

ogy” (p. 5). The situation is summed up by Misiak and Staudt:

From the beginning, the new psychology was scrutinized by Catholic philoso-

phers, especially those in the field of philosophical psychology, and very soon

they began to take definite stands toward it. The majority were suspicious of

the new psychology, a great number were opposed to it, and only a few ac-.

cepted it (p. 4).

Other reasons for opposition were not lacking. In Italy, for example, early empir-

ical psychology developed as an outgrowth of the materialistic positivistic philo-

sophy. A more long-lasting objection was that the allegedly scientific psychology

was completely grounded in an unacceptable biological materialism and evolu-

tionism. Other conservative Catholic philosophers conceded that a physiologi-

cal psychology might have a limited place in describing purely physiological

aspects of mental states and processes, but generalizations of greater scope

would not be valid. The old scholastic argument against the possibility of quan-

tification and psychometric measurement in psychology was once more trotted

out (Braun, 1969).

Only that which is extended can be measured that which is immaterial is not

extended, and man’s highest powers of intellection and decision making are

immaterial. Therefore, the use of psychometrics in the study of man is pre-

mised on a materialistic concept of man (p. 65).

Other philosophical difficulties, as might be expected, were found in treatment

of the mind-body problem and in the failure to adequately support the doctrine

of free will.

The year 1879 was considered important in Catholic circles as being the birth

136 BRUCE M. ROSS

year of the Neo-Thomistic movement. Pope Leo XIII issued the encyclical

Aeterni Patris, asking for the revival of the philosophy of St. Thomas Aquinas,

as ‘‘the remedy for the confusion and sterility of the philosophy of that period.”

This was the same year as that of the founding of the first psychological labora-

tory at Leipzig by Wilhelm Wundt. Misiak and Staudt (1954) comment:

While there seems to be no apparent relationship between the two events, the

founding of the psychological laboratory and the promulgation of this papal

encyclical, it is in Aeterni Patris that one should see the reason which

prompted some Catholic philosophers to recognize the new experimental psy-

chology. In this message, Leo XIII directed attention to the progress that had

been made in the natural sciences, and exhorted Catholic philosophers and

theologians to take note of this progress, to advance with it and not against it

(p. 34).

The leader in integrating Neo-Thomistic philosophy with psychology was Fa-

ther and later Cardinal Desire Mercier. (Note: Neo-Thomism and Neo-Scholas-

ticism can be considered here as synonymous, although at times Neo-Scholasti-

cism can have somewhat broader connotations.) Mercier founded a psychology

department at the University of Louvain in 1891 and of greater immediate

fame, the Institute of Neo-Thomistic Philosophy at the same university in 1895.

An interesting sidelight is that at this time Catholic University wanted to recruit

him as a professor. In spite of entreaties to Pope Leo XIII to prevail upon

Mercier to accept the position, Mercier never consented, as he felt he was needed

in Belgium. Mercier remained a philosopher and did not undertake formal

study of psychology, but he argued strongly for its necessary inclusion in philo-

sophical studies. In 1891, he said (Misiak & Staudt, 1954):

Psychology is undergoing today a transformation from which we would be

blameworthy to remain aloof. . . . Here is a young, contemporary science,

which is in itself neither spiritualistic nor materialistic. If we do not take part

in it, the psychology of the future will develop without us, and there is every

reason to believe, against us (pp. 34-35).

A man whose many talents were in demand, Mercier was soon a university

administrator, then an archbishop, and by 1908 a cardinal. Ten years older than

Pace, Mercier seemed in many ways a role model.

Most of Pace’s articles supporting psychology and meeting the above objec-

tions were, appropriately enough, addressed to Catholic audiences in Catholic

publications. An exception was a quite long article, The Definition of Psychol-

ogy, in a 1902 Scientific American Supplement. I will limit myself to citing the

general tenor of a few of Pace’s themes in his support of empirical psychology

(Braun, 1969). Perhaps the most obvious argument in behalf of psychology was

that it supplied necessary knowledge for philosophizing. (All remaining cita-

PSYCHOLOGY AT THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY 137

tions in this section are from Braun unless otherwise noted. Material quoted by

Braun that is directly from Pace is in single quotes.) |

There are sizable philosophical problems concerning man; what precisely is

his nature, what are the reasons for his acting in such a manner, how culpable

is he for a particular action, and so forth. The discoveries of experimental

psychology offer not only an aid to the solution of these problems but also

provide indispensable knowledge for a better philosophical understanding of

man. The more we know about the operations of man, ‘the better we are

prepared to speculate about his nature’ (p. 71).

In amplification of this argument, an appeal was made to the developmental

formation of knowledge; this genetic causality argument was innovative in that

it added a dimension that was largely lacking in scholastic philosophy.

With information obtained in the laboratory it is possible to refine the philo-

sophical axiom ‘all knowledge begins in the senses’ by showing how later

cognitional experiences are heavily conditioned by childhood sensations. Psy-

chology has discovered the laws which govern the functions of man’s higher

mental activities and the part these laws play in those functions. . . . The

child is constantly receiving impressions and storing up images which will

persist throughout the remainder of his life. The limitations which then arise

are such that ‘the whole future of the mind is largely determined by what is

seen and heard in this period’ (p. 74).

Psychology may provide desirable and even necessary facts, but Pace never

passed up a chance to stress that psychology is incomplete without philosophical

interpretation.

Psychology finds itself obliged to canvass its results in the light of philosophy.

Even though at times psychology may attempt to cautiously avoid any contact

with philosophy, it is hardly able to do so. ‘Its anxiety to keep clear of philo-

sophical problems sometimes lets out its real, though clandestine, relations

with this or that system.’ The imperative of the philosopher is to concern

himself with this study so that any interpretive bias may be exposed as an

interpretation and not a demonstration. Also, the philosopher must become

knowledgeable with the conclusions of psychology so that the new material

may be interpreted in the light of first principles (p. 75).

Not much of scientific value could be considered apart from philosophy, ac-

cording to Pace, since philosophers were the ultimate arbiters of cause-and-ef-

fect inferential reasoning.

‘Science also takes over from philosophy certain indispensable ideas and con-

cepts, and of these the principal one is causality.’ When science explains that

in a series of events, B is the effect of A, it is presuming the principle of

causality. But cause is a philosophical term and ‘it pertains to philosophy to

determine exactly what is meant by cause or effect, and to determine whether

cause is anything more than mere succession’ (p. 87).

138 BRUCE M. ROSS

Pace conceded ‘that a man may become a first-class chemist, or an excellent

biologist, without so much as opening the primer of philosophy.’ But each time

the scientist is using the terms cause or effect, “he is paying an unconscious

tribute to philosophical speculation” (p. 88).

Interestingly, in relation to cause and effect, there was claimed to be circular

transfer benefits for the student in studying the sciences, including psychology,

together with Thomistic philosophy.

‘Scientific training lends them [students] exactness when they begin to philo-

sophize. Even though this may be a secondary consideration in the relation of

philosophy to science, it does not detract from the conclusions that modern

science is the best ally, and not, as some would think, the lurking foe of

philosophy’ (Braun, 1969, p. 87).

On the other hand, “‘the person whose mental powers have been developed by a

familiarity with the scholastics, particularly Thomas Aquinas, will be prepared

‘to deal successfully with the problems of modern science’ ” (Braun, 1969, p.

136). Finally, Pace presented a pragmatic argument for the study of psychology

in which he

speaks quite harshly to those Catholics who indiscriminately criticize experi-

mental psychology. In speaking to them he says: ‘Either get hold of this instru-

ment and use it for proper purposes, or leave it to thé materialists and after

they have heaped up facts, established laws and forced their conclusions upon

psychology, go about tardily to unravel, with clumsy fingers, this tangle of

error (Braun, 1969 p. 76).

In other words, whoever has the best grasp on the stick of experimental psychol-

ogy can use it to thrash threatening adversaries. And the stick is already lying

there, so be first to grab it.

Pace in his early years at the University had to sustain direct ad hominem

attacks on the basis of what were considered his unorthodox views. When he was

invited to lecture at the Columbia Catholic Summer School in Madison, Wis-

consin, in 1896, and had accepted, the Rev. Dr. John Zahm, who had invited

Pace to speak, wrote to him that Bishop Sebastian Messmer of Green Bay had

attempted to cancel the invitation—“‘the only reason assigned. . . was that you

are not sound in philosophy, that you are a dangerous liberal, etc.” (p. 9).

Subsequently, Messmer wrote directly to Pace,

We finally compromised by instructing him [Zahm] toinform you. . .and to

state clearly that we shall consent to your lecturing at our session only on the

clear understanding that you will not treat or bring up any matter or question

in connection with your subject, which might give rise to dispute and unpleas-

ant objections (p. 10).

a ee ee

PSYCHOLOGY AT THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY 139

What has been summarized thus far is an elucidation of the earlier statement

that the seemingly “routine science” field of experimental psychology when

introduced into the Catholic University was not only a pioneering but also a

controversial venture. Certainly the amount of polemics that attended this cur-

riculum innovation and to a surprising extent continued for many years, seems

amazingly disproportionate to the cause. Irony is added when it is considered

that experimental psychology was—as will be explained—not planned to be

part of the curriculum but a sudden interest on the part of the young philosophy

teacher.

Father Edward A. Pace, who had studied in Rome, was still a mere 26-year-

old when he returned to Europe in 1888 to further prepare himself for his

appointment as professor of philosophy at the soon-to-open Catholic University

of America. That year he studied biology at Louvain along with his philosophy

courses which stressed the then newly emphasized Neo-Thomistic outlook. The

next year was to be a turning point in his career. While studying chemistry and

physiology at the Sorbonne, according to Pace’s own account, he chanced on a

secondhand copy of Wilhelm Wundt’s Grundzuge der Physiologischen Psychol-

ogie (the first of six editions was published in 1874) at a bookstall in Paris.

Reading Wundt’s book so impressed him that he resolved to study psychology

with the author. Suiting deed to desire, he went to Leipzig the next year, enrolled

as a student of psychology, and further broadened his education by taking

courses from the eminent physiologist Carl F. W. Ludwig. He was the first

Catholic priest to study with Wundt and the sixth American. In 1891 he received

his doctoral degree magna cum laude.

What would the early course of experimental psychology have been without

the adventitious element introduced by the used psychology books sold in Paris?

A more famous case of bibliographic inspiration had occurred slightly earlier. In

the late 1870’s, the German, Hermann Ebbinghaus, recipient of a 1873 doctor-

ate in philosophy, came across Gustav Fechner’s Elemente der Psychophysik

(1860) at a secondhand book shop in Paris. Noting that the vigorous approach

Fechner took in studying sensations could be adapted to the study of human

memory, Ebbinghaus undertook a laborious pioneering study of human mem-

ory without any acquaintance with psychologists or university afhliation, “with

his sole reliance on Fechner’s book and his own interest” (Boring, 1950, p. 387).

The two biblio-converted psychologists convened together in 1904 when Pace,

now dealing with psychology more as an administrator than a participant, was

honored by being invited to serve as the Chairman of the Experimental Psychol-

ogy Section at the St. Louis Universal Exposition. The leading speaker was

Professor Ebbinghaus.

Father Pace with his new doctorate in psychology returned to Catholic Uni-

140 BRUCE M. ROSS

versity in the autumn of 1891 as a member of the teaching faculty. The curricu-

lum included a course illustrated by the most modern scientific apparatus, im-

ported expressly for the purpose by the professor—the famous “brass

instruments” associated with the early psychological laboratories. With the cen-

tennial dates of a number of psychology departments including Catholic Univer-

sity celebrated or in prospect in recent years, various claims have been put

forward as to the dates of origin of the celebrating departments and this includes

the founding date of the experimental psychology laboratory at Catholic Univer-

sity. (In that era and for many years afterwards, the mark of a real psychology

department was that it possessed a laboratory, so that the department was re-

ferred to by the laboratory name—a particularly long-standing tradition in the

Ivy League.) In some places the Catholic University founding date is said to be

1891, but elsewhere it has been listed as 1892. With classes then opening in

November, rather than late August as at present, not much “founding” could

have been done in the waning months of 1891. (Time required for Pace’s psycho-

logical studies meant that he had missed the first two academic years at Catholic

University, as classroom teaching had begun in 1889.) The 1892 date can proba-

bly best be taken as definitive, since the American Psychological Association has

consistently listed that year as the founding date for the Catholic University

laboratory (Fernberger, 1932; Garvey, 1929). Trustworthy ordinal rankings are

unclear, since some early laboratories soon closed or operated discontinuously.

For example, there has been a claim for Harvard preceding Wundt’s establish-

ment of his Leipzig laboratory in 1879, but others deride this claim as pertaining

only to some lecture demonstration equipment. The generally acknowledged

American first is G. Stanley Hall’s Johns Hopkins laboratory of 1883. Other

early laboratories were established at Pennsylvania, Yale, Cornell, Wellesley,

Clark, and Columbia. Often overlooked but equally early were several midwest-

ern state universities, including Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and Wisconsin.

Doubtless there are others, as founding is often in the eye of the retrospective

beholder. Certainly the psychological laboratory at Catholic University was a

member of this early group. The inclusion of psychology in the Catholic Univer-

sity curriculum was more notable, however, because, despite strong opposition,

this psychological laboratory was “‘the first of its kind in any Catholic institution

of higher learning, antedating that of the Belgian University of Louvain” (Mis-

lak & Staudt, 1954, p. 82).

Pace is reminiscent of William James in that, though he advocated empirical

laboratory research, his own participation was brief. Among his numerous writ-

ings, not more than seven or eight can be counted as empirical studies, including

two articles on pain, and two on fluctuations of attention with weak stimuli. His

doctoral dissertation under Wundt was on a theoretical topic, The Relativity

PSYCHOLOGY AT THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY 141

Principle in Herbert Spencer’s Psychological Theory of Development. When the

American Psychological Association was formed under the auspices of G. Stan-

ley Hall in 1892, the new Ph.D., Pace was not among the 26 charter members at

the initial organizational meeting, but he was among the first five psychologists

elected by the charter members. At the first annual meeting of the Association’s

31 members in December 1892, Pace presented a paper titled Tactile Estimates

of Thickness, and the following year a paper on Pain Contents, but he did not

give papers at later meetings. Pace was a founding member of the American

Philosophical Association in 1893.

After 1902, Pace’s primary contribution to psychology, apart from teaching

some courses, was as an administrator and psychological apologist. In 1891

when Pace returned to Catholic University, all courses, including psychology

and philosophy, were offered under the faculty of theology. In 1895, a School of

‘Philosophy was organized with Pace serving as dean for the first four years. A

separate department of psychology was established in the school of philosophy

in 1905. Pace’s title was professor of psychology (1891-94) and professor of

philosophy thereafter (1894-1935). Although Pace continued to teach psychol-

ogy courses, he also went on to hold other offices in the University, including

additional terms as dean of philosophy (1906-14, 1934), general secretary

(1917-25) and vice rector (1925-36). He took an active role on the editorial

board of the Catholic Encyclopedia, at that time a pioneering venture, which

published fifteen volumes between 1907 and 1912. His interests also turned to

education, and in 1911 he became co-founder and first editor of the Catholic

Educational Review. In the latter part of his career he turned once more to

writing on strictly philosophical topics, and co-founded the American Catholic

Philosophical Association, becoming co-editor of its journal, The New Scholas-

ticism. By this time Pace’s role in psychology was limited to being an encourager

and propagandist for psychology and nominal editor of the psychology depart-

ment’s proprietary publication (Common in many universities at that time),

- Studies in Psychology and Psychiatry from The Catholic University of America.

Thus in 1969, thirty-one years after his death, when Pace’s life was traced in a

Catholic University dissertation by William P. Braun, C. S. C., it was probably

appropriate that the title omitted specific mention of psychology—Monsignor

Edward A. Pace, Educator and Philosopher.

Theoretical and Applied Psychology: Diverse Contributions of T. V. Moore

The Paulist priest, Thomas Verner Moore, heard Pace speak in the summer of

1896 about the new psychology in Germany and the laboratory he had estab-

lished in Washington. The next year Moore asked Pace to accept him as a

student. After taking courses to make up for his lack of background in mathe-

142 BRUCE M. ROSS

matics and science, Moore received the Ph.D. degree under Pace’s direction in

1903. But this was just the beginning of his training. That summer he got to

know the famous psychologist of learning theory, Edward L. Thorndike, while

taking his course at Columbia Teacher’s College. The following fall he went to

Leipzig to study with Wundt resolved, he said, to study the problem of how to

open the field of thought processes to experimentation, a problem that Wundt

thought could not be brought into the laboratory. Thorndike had told Moore to

look up a young Englishman then resident at Leipzig, Charles Spearman. At that

time Spearman was just developing the mathematical technique of factor analy-

sis in which he postulated a general or g factor interacting with a variety of

task-specific factors in all intelligent behavior. From that time on factor analysis

became Moore’s preferred research tool, although he later favored Louis Thur-

stone’s group factor approach to factor analysis over Spearman’s. Moore later

extended his application of factor analysis beyond the study of intelligence to

investigations of personality and emotion.

Moore spent the year 1905-06 recuperating at a tuberculosis sanitarium in

Germany. On his return to America in 1906, Moore went to Berkeley, Califor-

nia, where, while serving as chaplain of the Newman Club of the University of

California, he studied physiology and chemistry. Shortly after returning to teach

psychology at Catholic University in 1909, he visited Lightner Witmer’s clinic,

the pioneer American psychological clinic, at the University of Pennsylvania.

This gave Moore the idea to found such a clinic at Catholic University. But, no

doubt correctly at that time, he realized that this goal could not be accomplished

unless he acquired a medical degree. He began his medicai studies at George-

town Medical School in 1911, continued them at Munich in 1913, and returned

to America still a semester short of a degree because of the outbreak of World

War I. He finally obtained an M. D. degree from Johns Hopkins in 1915. In

1916, now established as an associate professor, he opened a clinic at Providence

Hospital in southeast Washington, DC. The clinic was transferred to the campus

of Catholic University in 1937, where it was known simply as the Child Center.

A name change occurred with the psychology department becoming the Depart-

ment of Psychology and Psychiatry in 1939. At this time the Department and

the Child Center were enabled to expand by means of a grant from the Rocke-

feller Foundation. The work Moore started with Wundt in 1904 was completed

at Berkeley and published in 1910 under the title, The Process of Abstraction.

Moore (1948) concluded in that study:

the technique of the study allowed one to distinguish various stages in the

process of perception and to arrive at an important generalization: Perception

proceeds from that which is most general, that is to say, from knowledge

without reproducible imagery, to an adequate analysis of the object perceived

PSYCHOLOGY AT THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY 143

and a final full sensory representation of the individual object. . . . Percep-

tion first develops a knowing rather than a sensing, even though it does so by

means of sensation (p. 43). ;

While he was in Munich in 1913, Moore worked with Oswald Kulpe, the

famous Wurzburg psychologist who had recently taken the chair at the Univer-

sity of Munich. This study was published as a monograph in 1919, and “The

result of this study showed that an unanalyzed consciousness of the meaning

arises prior to any conscious image in the perception of printed words, and prior

to the word in the perception of pictures.” These results, together with the

Berkeley findings, substantially supported the concept of imageless thought that

was a major conclusion of the Wurzburg investigations. Moore’s study received

a renewed number of citations about 20 years ago when the psychological study

of imagery was resuscitated in academic psychology. Moore’s interest in clinical

problems was further stimulated by his service in the Medical Corps in France in

1918-19:

The war neuroses offered a valuable opportunity for studying emotional con-

ditions and enabled me to delineate a group of emotional disorders, the para-

taxes, which lie between the normal emotional reactions or psychotaxes [ita-

lics added] and the major psychoses... . . the factorial analysis demonstrated

the existence of a group of empirical syndromes and these syndromes were in

general easily identified with certain Kraepelinian diagnostic entities (Moore,

1948, p. 45).

It was during this (war) service that he became a friend of Dr. Winfred Over-

holser, who later became superintendent of St. Elizabeths’ Hospital in Wash-

ington, D. C. For many years thereafter a strong relationship of mutual benefit

existed between the Department of Psychology at Catholic University and St.

Elizabeths Hospital (Peixotto, 1969, p. 846).

Moore taught the first clinical psychology course in 1916, entitled, A clinic for

the examination of defective children. In 1921 he taught a course in psychiatry

for the first time. In 1921 it also became possible for undergraduates to major in

. psychology, with the proviso that the student perform an empirical thesis. For

decades, however, the number of undergraduate majors remained small and

undergraduate teaching of secondary importance. As late as 1954, Misiak and

Staudt wrote that “at Catholic University, undergraduate psychology has not

been developed to any great degree,” while at the same time praising the gradu-

ate program at Catholic University as a leader among Catholic institutions.

Only in the late 1960’s and especially in the 1970’s was the undergraduate

program highly developed. In line with undergraduate enthusiasms of this pe-

riod, undergraduate majors usually exceeded 150 students.

In 1922 Moore was promoted to professor and became chair of the psychol-

ogy department, a post he was to hold for the next quarter century. Moore’s

144 BRUCE M. ROSS

variety of activities only intensified. In 1923 he left the Paulists and after a brief

novitiate in Scotland became a Benedictine monk, who with six others estab-

lished St. Anselm’s Priory near the Catholic University campus.

He founded a school for retarded girls in 1924 (St. Gertrude’s), opened a

preparatory school for boys in 1942 (The Priory School), taught at Trinity

College in Washington, DC, for a number of years, served as editor of the

Catholic University Studies in Psychology and Psychiatry, wrote numerous

books, articles and book reviews, gave countless lectures, and offered invalu-

able psychological and psychiatric services personally to troubled individuals

(Misiak & Staudt, 1954, p. 192).

In 1944, not long before his retirement, Moore proposed that the university

should establish and staff a Catholic psychiatric hospital. This additional project

was not acted on by the University (Nuesse, 1990, p. 225).

Moore wrote five books dealing with psychological subject matter between

1924 and 1948. In putting forward his views, I will mostly consider his best

known book, Cognitive Psychology (1939), and to a lesser extent his later book,

The Driving Forces of Human Nature and Their Adjustment: An Introduction to

the Psychology and Psychopathology of Emotional Behavior and Volitional

Control (1948).

Moore often described himself as a functionalist, and he described the work at

Catholic University as functional in nature. This assertion did not mean that he

followed the well known functional schools of psychology that were prominent

at the University of Chicago and Columbia University. Moore’s concept of

functionalism was to determine the functions of mind, which task necessarily

involved an ultimate theoretical interpretation. But like the better known func-

tionalists, his functional approach included the concept that applied psychologi-

cal findings could furnish useful perspectives. The linchpin of his theoretical

undertakings was the revision and modernizing of faculty psychology as ex-

pressed in the Neo-Scholastic philosophic synthesis. Moore (1948) implied that

considerable revision of philosophic doctrines might be brought about by psy-

chological results:

it is important in the study of the human to turn to the mind itself rather than

to the commentaries on Aristotle and St. Thomas. The commentaries have

their value, but if there is to be progress in psychology we must not only

interpret the past but make investigations in the present and bring ancient

truths into contact with the developments of the present (p. 45).

Immediately following this statement is a suggestion of a role model with whom

Moore could identify: :

This task was the life work of St. Albert the Great, to whom St. Thomas owed

so much. The study of empirical data is of even more importance in our day

PSYCHOLOGY AT THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY 145

than in the time of St. Albert, because of the vast amount of material waiting

to be synthesized. The data available at the present transcend in importance

anything that St. Albert could ever have dreamed about. Let us look up from

the texts and the commentaries at least long enough to have a glance at what is

available in the present (p. 45).

But a few sentences further on he assures the reader that the basic philosophic

dogmas will not be threatened: ““To call attention to the various processes in

concrete situations is not to deny the importance of any mental function defined

by St. Thomas.” Probably the most distinctive way in which Moore went

beyond Neo-Scholastic philosophy empirically was his insistence, deriving from

his experiments on imageless thought, that the phantasm (image) could not

figure as prominently in the process of rational thought as the Thomist descrip-

tions claimed.

As previously mentioned, (Moore, 1945) factor analysis was to be the key:

Thurstone stepped into the field with his ‘vectors of mind’ which, however,

turn out to be faculties of the mind or mechanisms involved in the operation

of a faculty. Thurstone himself recognized this when he wrote, ‘Factor analysis

is reminiscent of faculty psychology. It is true that the object of factor analysis

is to discover the mental faculties’ (p. 37).

But Thurstone’s work needed interpretations grounded in philosophy, thus

without a philosophic base Thurstone’s contribution was no more than techni-

cal. “In general his work has been a contribution of technique, but the results he

[Thurstone] has obtained support theoretical implications that transcend any

philosophy to which he has as yet given expression.” This limited praise ranked

pretty well up the ladder on Moore’s scale of compliments. The lack of a philo-

sophical base was also held against Thorndike’s theory of learning:

A little sound philosophy would have eliminated many of the fallacies in the

publications of Teacher’s College and there might have been produced a psy-

chology more true to the nature of man and more helpful to the philosophy of

education (pp. 34-35).

Moore thought that factor analysis reinvigorated faculty psychology because

it derived faculties and powers that ordinarily operated mainly through interac-

tions with other mental faculties. According to Moore, the use of this technique

allowed one to supersede the over-simplified and debased notion of faculty

psychology prevalent in the twentieth century view that there are faculties that

act independently, the view that had earlier been popularized in the pseudo-

science of phrenology. Not everyone, however, found the factorial studies ema-

nating from Catholic University compelling. A. A. Roback (1952), who in-

cluded a chapter on Neo-Scholastic psychology in his History of American

146 BRUCE M. ROSS

Psychology, described a dissertation by Sr. M. R. McDonough on The empirical

study of character that he claimed:

standards—a broad survey of the literature and elaborate statistical treatment

of the somewhat meager results, on the one hand, and a profuse citation of the

literature, on the other hand, in lieu of delving into the core of the problem at

exemplifies both the adequacies and inadequacies of the Catholic University

issue (p. 367).

More troubling are the cause-and-effect inferences Moore derives from mathe-

matical correlations. In one study that exemplifies this consideration, Moore

(1948) gives a short description of a study he characterized as typical of work

carried out at the Catholic University psychology department:

St. Thomas Aquinas had a concept of sensory memory which has not been

given specific attention by modern experimental psychology. . . . Imagina-

tion according to St. Thomas is the conservation of past sensory experience

but without any accompanying label of its having been in consciousness in the

past. To label it as past belongs to sensory memory. . . . Subjects were pre-

sented with words or pictures that they could remember as having been pre-

sented, and also any others that came to mind for a period of ten minutes.

Answer sheets were scored by counting (1) words or pictures recalled and

recognized (Thomistic memory), and (2) words or pictures recalled but not

recognized (Thomistic imagination). It was found that Thomistic imagination

for words correlated with pictures .46 and had negative but low correlations

with Thomistic memory. It was therefore concluded that the two functions

were capable of independent variation and were therefore distinct (pp. 51-52).

Moore’s interpretation is especially unusual in drawing specific conclusions

from the absence of positive correlations. |

Roback, who was critical of Moore’s factor analytic studies, was, however,

amazed by Moore’s early acceptance of many psychoanalytic doctrines. In his

1952 book, Roback wrote:

Of greater import is Moore’s acceptance, in large part, of Freudian psychol-

ogy. Many years ago he astonished the writer, [Roback], when he told him that

these psychoanalytic concepts were found very useful in his clinical therapy.

Who would have believed even fifty years ago that such a deviation on the part

of a Catholic would be permitted by his supervisors, but Moore is not the only

ecclesiastic who has adopted Freud’s methods and interpretations (p. 367).

Moore did in fact write several articles in which psychoanalytic interpretations

were dominant and contributed at least one article to a psychoanalytic journal.

Moore showed less enthusiasm for Jung and psychiatrists who, following Jung,

intermixed their patients’ religious convictions with psychotherapy. Further,

Moore cautioned that religion as a therapeutic aid was only applicable to those

PSYCHOLOGY AT THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY 147

who have sincere and honest religious convictions and is of no use to patients

who lack religious convictions.

During the time of Nazi domination in Europe, Moore (1948) undertook an

unusual task that he performed at the behest of Pope Pius XI. This task came

about because the Nazis:

maintained that the difference between the higher and lower races of man is

similar to that between the higher and lower animals. The German race was

supposed to be at the summit of human development and lower human races

scarcely differed from animals.. . . It was thought desirable to have a chapter

on animal intelligence, so that one might see from the empirical evidence

whether or not it was possible to consider the highest animals as approaching

the level of the lowest existing human races, and so our department was asked

to abstract and summarize the experimental and empirical evidence on this

problem (p. 50).

Moore alone wrote up this literature search as sole author. Among other find-

ings, he drew the conclusion that “no animal below man is capable of intellec-

tual operations involving the handling of even simple general principles. Intellec-

tual functions, therefore, must be differentiated from those of the special senses

and the synthetic sense (p. 50). What is the synthetic sense? This is Moore’s own

theoretical term (1939) which he defines as:

a mental ability that has to do with the holding together in one complex unit

the various elements of a sensory presentation; and, for the purpose of inter-

pretation and adequate behavior, accentuating now this and now that element

of the complex without losing the structural unity of the whole. We may term

this ability the synthetic sense, . . . [which] is not itself a knowing or an

interpretation of a meaning but is the necessary condition so that objects can

be known, pictures be interpreted, and speech be understood (p. 241).

Moore wanted his readers to know that novel as his terminology was, it was just

a convenient concatenation of traditional Thomistic distinctions. “Scholastic

philosophy distinguished between the functions of the sensus communis and the

_ vis aestimativis (in animals) or the vis cogitativa in man. It may be pardonable in

the present state of a psychological analysis to discuss both functions under the

heading: synthetic sense” (p. 238). Adding to the oddness of the request and the

esoteric strangeness of the answer is that Moore seemingly never did any animal

research, nor ever showed any interest in animal psychology and, on occasion,

he deplored the behaviorist emphasis on animal research to the neglect of the

study of higher intellectual functions.

In Catholic circles in both Europe and America, the preferred therapeutic

theorist in the 1930’s and 1940’s was neither Freud nor Jung but Alfred Adler. A

foremost Adlerian proponent was the Viennese Rudolf Allers who moved to the

United States in the later 1920’s after writing several books, including The

148 BRUCE M. ROSS

Psychology of Character (1932), a Thomistic formulation of Adlerian psychol-

ogy. In 1938 he was appointed professor of psychology and scholastic philo-

sophy at Catholic University, but shortly thereafter joined the Department of

Philosophy at Georgetown University. In 1940 Allers brought out a book den-

ouncing psychoanalytic theory, titled The Successful Error. He insisted that

Freudian doctrine and method are one and inseparable, therefore implying that

it was impossible to reconcile Freudian psychoanalysis with Catholic doctrine,

even if one made use of only a limited number of Freudian techniques. Allers

followed up this controversial book with several journal articles in the same vein

that were not only in opposition to Moore but also to several other prominent

Catholic psychologists. Psychoanalytic permissibility came from the highest

Catholic authority in 1953 when Pope Pius XII addressed the International

Congress of Catholic Psychotherapists in Rome and “in this address the Pope

approved the use of the psychoanalytical method and pointed out some abuses

which Catholics must be careful to avoid”’ (Misiak & Staudt, 1954, p. 264).

Recently it has been pointed out (Knapp, 1985) that in titling his 1939 book

Cognitive Psychology and in his emphasis on the functions of thought, Moore

partially anticipated the cognitive revolution that was to come 25 years later. But

the case is rather weak in that the commonalities found are chiefly the rejection

of behaviorism and the use of reaction time procedures to differentiate among

mental processes. In his “‘conclusion,”’ the author, rather suddenly reverses his

argument:

Cognitive Psychology may be better viewed as a remnant of the past rather

than as an anticipation of the future. To that end it can serve as supportive

evidence for those who have argued that contemporary cognitive psychology

is merely a return to an earlier period in the history of the discipline (p. 1315).

Too much should not be made of Moore’s rejection of behaviorism. Apart

from factor analysis and some psychoanalytic procedures there was little that he

didn’t find worthy of rejection and some disdain. One can consider the

forthrightness of the following quotations from Moore’s Cognitive Psychology

(1939):

Materialism, whether as behaviorism or configurationalism, [Moore’s term

for Gestalt psychology], or in any other guise can have an apparent ground to

stand on only by restricting discussion to the dimension of movement or the

physics and chemistry of sensory stimuli... . By evading issues materialism

can contribute volumes to psychological literature, but by doing so it develops

a psychology that has no value as a practical instrument in dealing with hu-

man problems, and which contributes nothing to the real mental life of man

(p. 549). |

Two of the psychologists whose work was to be particularly important in the

cognitive psychology of the 1950’s and 1960’s were dismissed in footnotes by

PSYCHOLOGY AT THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY 149

Moore (1939) without further mention elsewhere. Regarding Frederic Bartlett’s

landmark book Remembering (1932): “This whole book of Bartlett’s is so chatty

and vague in its treatment that it is difficult to derive from it any definite

conclusions” (p. 507). As for developmental psychologist Jean Piaget:

Piaget’s conclusion that the first stage of reasoning is characterized by wish

fulfillment and magical premises was due to the fact that the problems tran-

scended the sphere of the child’s experience and he was forced by questioning

to give an answer of some kind. . . . When there is less chance to read one’s

own ideas into the child’s mind, Piaget’s stages are not found (p. 370).

Moore (1939) himself apparently found it extremely difficult to give whole-

hearted approval to any psychologist without adding some important correc-

tion. (His former host and collaborator Oswald Kulpe was the exception.) One

can take Moore’s treatment of Helmholtz as an exemplar. On the plus side,

Helmholtz “developed a theory of knowledge which in many points coincides

with scholastic philosophy.” But ““he [Helmholtz] gave way to social pressure 1n

adopting materialism. All his associates believed in the power of matter in

motion to nature and man. And so Helmholtz postulated their belief, but it is

logically incompatible with the intellectualism of his theory of knowledge”’ (pp.

189-190).

In 1947 at age 70 Moore accepted an invitation to lecture on psychiatry in

Spain. While in Spain, he transferred from the Benedictine order to the stricter

Carthusian order. In 1950, he returned briefly to the United States to establish a

Carthusian foundation in Vermont. Nine years later his last book (1959) was

published, Heroic Sanctity and Insanity. An Introduction to the Spiritual Life

and Mental Hygiene. Moore died in Spain in 1969. Father John W. Stafford

(personal communication, 1959) who succeeded Moore as departmental chair

from 1947 to 1959 reported in a departmental colloquium shortly before

Moore’s death that, when visited in Spain, Moore had suggested that someone

should undertake a factor analysis of the experience of religious ecstasy. Appar-

_ ently the monastery did not quell his psychological cognitions.

Without consideration of the period in which Pace and Moore worked, their

achievements in Catholic higher education can scarcely be appreciated in the

climate of opinion that prevails today. Prior to 1939-45 Catholic graduate edu-

cation, even aside from the special difficulties psychology presented, was all too

often an unappreciated and misunderstood enterprise among American Catho-

lics. Nor was the reputation of Catholic graduate education high in the wider

American scholarly community. In the 1934 Raymond Hughes “Report of the

Committee on Graduate Instruction,” a pioneer reputational survey of a type

which has since become recurrent, five departments of the twenty-three fields of

the arts and sciences at Catholic University were rated adequate in equipment

150 BRUCE M. ROSS

and staff. Psychology was one of the five rated as adequate. Still this was in some

measure an accomplishment, since the only other graduate department in a

Catholic institution with a reputation rating of adequacy was the Chemistry

Department at Notre Dame.

Some Catholic spokesmen accepted the concept of graduate education but

thought concern with research was either unnecessary or overdone. Here objec-

tors could cite that most eminent of English-speaking Catholics, Cardinal New-

man. In 1937, Martin McGuire, Dean of the Graduate School of Arts and

Sciences of Catholic University wrote:

It is not necessary to discuss here Newman’s view that research should have no

place in a university, as President Angell of Yale has dealt adequately with this

point in his essay on the aims and province of a modern university. Nor do I

think it necessary either to examine here the strange idea of the late George

Bull, S. J. that ‘“‘a Catholic university which accepts research as the dominant

objective of its graduate school, is by that much attempting the impossible

task of being Catholic in creed and anti-Catholic in culture” (p. 112).

But opposition to too much emphasis on research could be found within the

Catholic University faculty. Fulton J. Sheen, in the 1930’s a young member of

the Catholic University philosophy department,

who was already becoming the foremost American Catholic apologist through

his use of radio, saw as a desideratum “‘a de-emphasis on research as an end

and purpose of university education.” Allowing for the need of research in the

natural sciences, a Catholic university as he envisioned it existed primarily for

the “organization and dissemination of truth in the natural and revealed

order” (Nuesse, 1990, p. 234).

Monsignor Sheen’s quest for dissemination in later years was undoubtedly bet-

ter fulfilled by television than anything the university could offer.

Views on Psychology (1945-1962) at Catholic University vs. Other Institutions

It might be taken as a foregone conclusion that in the changed atmosphere

after 1945 psychology would soon be widely accepted and taught at Catholic

colleges. It is some measure of the achievement of Pace and Moore, that a

well-known psychology program had been in existence at Catholic University

for more than 50 years. However, elsewhere in Catholic educational circles,

psychology was commonly resisted and ignored. In 1953, William Bier, S. J. of

Fordham University at the annual meeting of the Catholic Educational Associa-

tion put forth the estimate that in the United States only 26 per cent of the

Catholic men’s colleges and 18 per cent of the women’s colleges had psychology

departments. What were the reasons why psychology could find such small

acceptance in Catholic colleges? Certainly it must have seemed easier to teach

PSYCHOLOGY AT THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY 151

the rational psychology of Neo-Scholasticism in dogmatic form than allow for

extensions and amplifications through empirical research, as Pace and Moore

had wanted to do. As Moore’s writings showed, given the ultimate goal of

improvement in the scope and application of philosophical principles, it was a

complex task to pick out and integrate findings that were both empirically valid

and doctrinally irreproachable.

The doctrine that was the greatest single sticking point in Catholic higher

education was the Darwinian theory of evolution. The acceptance of this theory

that had pretty much come about in the science departments of many old-line

Protestant colleges by the twentieth century did not hold for Catholic colleges.

And, as has often been reiterated, the theory of evolution is a fundamental

assumption of modern psychology. In 1923, just two years before the famous

Scopes’ trial concerning the teaching of evolution in Tennessee, the Fordham

University digest of lectures in “fundamental psychology” stated a not atypical

anti-evolutionary position: ““Darwinism for many reasons must be rejected as

false’ ( p. 14). Among the reasons was that “it openly conflicts with well ascer-

tained data of experience, as well as with some of the conclusions of geology and

palaeontology.” A more specific proposition also called for refutation: “‘It is

false to say that even man’s body is descended from the brute” (p. 14). An

argument was put forward that was common in the nineteenth century. “If the

human body has been evolved gradually we should find in the earth’s strata

intermediate grades or forms of life. No such intermediate forms, or missing

links as they are called, can anywhere be discovered. Nor could man’s body have

sprung from the brute by means of saltatory evolution for the effect cannot be

more perfect than the cause” (p. 15). (Cited as sources were the Catholic Ency-

clopedia and five Jesuit authorities.)

In the same set of lectures obeisance to Aristotle reaches a ludicrous extreme

in that Aristotle’s notorious error of attributing many of the main functions of

the brain to the heart is given considerable credence. Discussed is the determina-

. tion of movement of man’s limbs or organs by what in Neo-Scholastic terminol-

ogy is termed the faculty of sensitive appetite: “All agree that the heart is at least

the organ which manifests the working of this appetite. Experience clearly shows

that sensitive impulses especially when vehement, constrict, dilute, accelerate or

retard the heart and its movements. It is controverted whether or not the heart is

also the eliciting organ. Many maintain that the brain immediately concurs in

sensitive impulses. Others, with higher probability, teach that the heart is also

the chief eliciting organ for they include likewise the nervous system, especially

that portion of the large sympathetic nerve which resides in the heart. This

opinion seems more in accord with consciousness, with the common universal

way of speaking which ascribes all the movements of the sensitive appetite to the

152 BRUCE M. ROSS

heart, and finally is confirmed by the fact that the impulses are received in the

heart and greatly modify it” (p. 46) [italics added to last sentence].

In fairness to Fordham University it should be noted that a psychology depart-

ment and laboratory was established there in 1931. By 1952 Roback would

write: “Although the Catholic University of America ranks with the better edu-

cational institutions in the United States, Fordham University is a close rival;

and, in psychology, it is in a fair way to outstrip it in the not distant future”

(p. 367).

The above scientific absurdities were of course far from any argument the

medically-trained Moore would ever make. I have been unable to find any

pronouncements Moore made directly about the theory of evolution, but he did

find in the neighboring area of embryology support for some Aristotelian philo-

sophical concepts. This subject matter is dealt with in Moore’s book, The Driv-

ing Forces of Human Nature (1948) in the final chapter titled Formal Causality

and the Philosophy of Nature. Moore argued that the embryological evidence,

citing particularly the embryologists, Hans Driesch and Hans Spemann, often

shows crucial preformational tendencies that enable embryos to achieve their

entelechy in spite of experimental conditions that would seem to present an

inseparable detriment. “Nature is not a mere swarm of moving particles, but a

matrix of materia prima in which by laws, known as yet but dimly, formative

forces arise, rationes seminales [seminal reasons], which coordinate develop-

ment and disappear as ideas flash into consciousness and then cease to be” (p.

444). Thus Moore argues that Aristotelian and Thomistic concepts are still

appropriate, especially the doctrine of formal causality—preordained intent as

to design—that most biologists find far too teleological to accept.

The question arises as to why Pace and Moore found it necessary to advocate

a psychology tied to the Neo-Scholastic movement. It is not too difficult to

determine for Pace, who having been employed as a philosopher had the

Wundt-inspired insight in Paris that psychology was capable of expanding the

philosophical horizon. Moore, on the other hand, after performing orthodox

and well-accepted psychological experiments seemed to want to achieve a more

comprehensive synthesis that would fulfill his polymathic tendencies. His pio-

neering work in establishing clinical training and service was well served by this

outlook. But when it came to psychological theorizing his denunciation of all

contemporary points of view put him in an isolated position. Viewpoints other

than his own were dismissed not for methodological faults but because they

lacked a correct, largely historical interpretation. In striking contrast, the two

most prominent European Catholic psychologists, both contemporaries of

Moore, adopted the mainstream position, which is almost universal today, that

psychology should be severed from metaphysics and philosophical constraints.

PSYCHOLOGY AT THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY 153

Both by example and publications, they argued that Catholic psychologists do

not need a special Neo-Scholastic psychology.

One of these European psychologists was the Italian priest Agostino Gemelli

who studied psychology first with Friedric Kiesow in Turin and then, like

Moore, with Kulpe in Bonn and Munich. As was the case with Moore, Gemelli

took on heavy administrative duties when in 1921 he was appointed rector of

the newly opened Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan, the first

Catholic university in Italy. Gemelli was a strong promoter of Neo-Scholasti-

cism in Italy. ‘““The main aspect of Gemelli’s whole philosophical work is his

stand against positivism, and his endeavors to revive and establish Neo-Scholas-

tic philosophy in the tradition of the Louvain movement” (Misiak & Staudt,

1954, p. 139). Notwithstanding these impeccable credentials, however, no

stronger opponent to the attempt to establish a Neo-Scholastic psychology can

be imagined. This view is elaborated in his paper On the Relationship Between

Psychology and Philosophy delivered, appropriately enough, at the Interna-

tional Thomistic Conference in 1936. Excerpts include the following admoni-

tions: (Misiak & Staudt, 1954).

Psychology was born in the womb of philosophy, but now it should finally free

itself, once for all, from the constraining bonds of philosophy, and remain an

autonomous science. Many psychological schools had their theoretical foun-

dations impregnated with explicit or implicit philosophy, and this was detri-

mental to their scientific pursuits. As soon as the unity between bodily and

psychic activity in man is admitted, psychology can have its object and

method without the necessity of referring to philosophical doctrines... .

[Further, in an exact literal translation:] “‘I consider psychology a science, no

more nor less than every other experimental science; and I add that we must

step up all the more the process of liberation of this science from philosophy,

of which just a short time ago psychology was merely a modest chapter. We

must sever completely the final bonds which are still attached, so that com-

pletely freed psychology may develop without obstacles in its path” (p. 146).

The second outstanding European Catholic psychologist of Moore’s era was

Albert Michotte who studied at Louvain and then like Pace studied with Wundt

at Leipzig and with Kulpe, who was then still at Wurzburg. In 1905 he returned

to the University of Louvain as a teacher, and in 1912 became a full professor.

As a student at Louvain, Michotte had Cardinal Mercier as a teacher and after-

wards said that his influence “‘was determinative in his intellectual and human

development.” Michotte favored a phenomenological framework for his numer-

ous experimental investigations which brought him friendship with the Gestalt

group, although he was never a member. His work was not widely known in

America until the publication of his book, The Perception of Causality, in 1946,

but for years he had been friendly with the leading psychologists in America. His

154 BRUCE M. ROSS

work was appreciated by psychologists of widely varying persuasions in both

Europe and America. In a commemorative volume for a celebration of the

fortieth anniversary of Michotte’s professorship, tributes came from T. V.

Moore, and also from L. M. Terman, E. L. Thorndike, and the arch-behaviorist

W.S. Hunter. Michotte, as a student of Cardinal Mercier, and as the professor of

psychology at Louvain where the philosophical institute devoted to the study of

St. Thomas Aquinas was located, might have been expected to advocate Neo-

Scholasticism in his teaching and the interpretation of his research. His experi-

mental work, however, was like that of the majority of experimental psycholo-

gists free of any metaphysical interpretations. Nevertheless, Michotte was an

active member of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences. He attracted many Cath-

olic students to his laboratory, which the Danish gestaltist David Katz called “‘a

mecca for pilgrims of experimental psychology.” Among these students were Fr.

John Stafford, successor to Moore as Catholic University psychology depart-

ment Chairman, and another professor in the department during this period, Fr.

James Van der Veldt.

Gemelli was not only a member but also the President of the Pontifical Acad-

emy of Sciences in addition to being the rector of a leading Catholic University.

But, as noted, these papal honors came to Gemelli and Michotte even though

both men shunned the Neo-Scholastic psychology movement. Between the turn

of the century and 1939 there were, however, a number of priest-psychologists

who furthered the cause of Neo-Scholastic psychology in Continental Europe.

They primarily wrote textbooks, summaries, and reviews and published often

acute criticism of extant theories. A difficulty in making themselves known to

the wider psychological community was that they performed few experiments

and gathered little data so that their writings, usually untranslated, were scarcely

known in America. Neo-Scholastic psychology in Europe, as distinct from Neo-

Scholastic philosophy, did not survive after 1945.

The Neo-Scholastic philosophy (Anable, 1941) lived on in America and fora

time increased in popularity after 1945, but somehow American savants seemed

to make little contribution. The French scholars, philosopher Jacques Maritain

and historian Etienne Gilson were cited repeatedly, but other authorities possess-

ing similar scholarly distinction never emerged. Eventually even in America the

Neo-Scholastic philosophy seemed no longer pertinent to ongoing concerns.

For some scholars there was a reaction that went further: it was suggested that

this philosophy in spite of initial great hopes had been stultifying and reaction-

ary as long as it held sway. In the fall of 1985 an article from Commonweal that

expressed these sentiments with an undertone of bitterness (Galvin) appeared in

Envoy, an in-house magazine of Catholic University:

PSYCHOLOGY AT THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY 155

Yet Neo-Scholasticism did not suffice to address the pressing religious issues

of the day. Unlike the medieval predecessors from which it drew much of its

content, it was born of a spirit of reaction and closed to the world in which it

lived, marked by defensiveness and hostility, it was more disposed to reject

alternative views than to engage in constructive dialogue with them. Armed

with a fixed catalogue of questions and answers oriented narrowly on the

Church’s dogmatic tradition, it tended to classify both biblical thought and

patristic theology as mere precursors of its own final synthesis, to be mined for

support where this was feasible, ignored where it was not. As a result of these

characteristics, it was theologically unproductive and spiritually sterile.

With the withering away of the Neo-Scholastic philosophy, the attempt to

forge a Neo-Scholastic psychology lost its rationale, even in America. No longer

was empirical psychology united in a marriage of inconvenience to the meta-

physical axioms of rational psychology. There were additional factors, but this

change in outlook was certainly a strong enabling factor in establishing psychol-

ogy as an autonomous discipline at Catholic colleges and universities. Numer-

ous Catholic colleges during the sixties and seventies added psychology depart-

ments that were little different in composition and outlook from similar

departments at non-Catholic colleges.

What can be said in summarizing Moore’s achievements? His role as a

founder of psychological service institutions under Catholic auspices was no

small accomplishment. Misiak and Staudt (1954) emphasize, as just one exam-

ple, that the Catholic University clinic “‘served as the model after which other

Catholic clinics were subsequently patterned.” Moore never relented in his vig-

orous campaign among the clergy and educators for the development and ex-

tension of the clinic movement in Catholic circles. He urged his fellow Catho-

lics, especially his fellow clerics, to be more accepting of psychology and

psychiatry. Moreover, he struggled to convince them of the acceptability of

psychoanalytic methodology. He further urged them to establish Catholic

schools for the retarded, one of which he himself founded. Misiak and Staudt

. concluded: “His versatility as lecturer, teacher, writer, psychologist, and psychia-

trist made him the logical person to establish psychology firmly among Ameri-

can Catholics” (p. 203).

Moore’s dual role of psychologist and se scHiiinte was undoubtedly beneficial

in allowing him to address a wider audience. But it was not so beneficial to other

faculty and students with clinical interests to be in a Department of Psychology

and Psychiatry that issued the publication Studies in Psychology and Psychiatry

when the only permanent resident psychiatrist was Moore himself. In addition

to his many other duties, Moore carried on a clinical practice and incorporated

many vignettes from his psychotherapeutic endeavors into his writings. Thus it

156 BRUCE M. ROSS

might be thought that he was well placed to be a pioneer in the liberation of

clinical psychology from the shackles of psychiatry. Such was not to be. In fact, it

comes as a jolt when after reading some 300 pages of his first book (1924), with

the title Dynamic Psychology: An Introduction to Modern Psychological Theory

and Practice—a book which dealt with the theories of Freud, Jung, and Adler,

all then living—to find a footnote warning psychologists away from clinical

endeavors: “It should be noted that psychotherapy should not be practiced

except by one who is a properly qualified physician if serious blunders are to be

avoided” (p. 304). Freud himself was broader-gauged in not restricting the prac-

tice of psychotherapy solely to physicians when he wrote his short book The

Question of Lay Analysis in 1926, two years after Moore’s admonition.

The establishment of a counseling center whose members collaborated with

the Department of Psychology and Psychiatry came in 1948. Soon after, the

department was approved for the training of clinical psychologists by the Vet-

erans Administration and in 1950 became the recipient of training grants from

the U. S. Public Health Service. These events occurred under the tenure of

Moore’s successor, Fr. John W. Stafford. The concept of clinical psychology

supported by government funds was exclusively a postwar phenomenon that

allowed clinical psychology to establish itself throughout the U. S. But undoubt-

edly, Catholic University with its well-established university clinic had a head

start, one that expressed itself in establishing the first clinical psychology gradu-

ate training program in the entire Washington, DC, area. It would be interesting

to know what Moore in the Spanish monastery thought of this rush to train

nonmedical psychotherapists. Perhaps he changed his mind.

The vision of Pace and spirited efforts by Moore in attempting a synthesis of

psychological results that would both support and amplify the perennial Catho-

lic philosophy can be seen as a laudatory and idealistic effort, although ulti-

mately a failure. The plausible rationale had been that the Christian philosophy

of the medieval mind was once strengthened and elaborated by the adoption of

the thought of Aristotle, so why after the passage of centuries could not a similar

remodeling take place again. Rather than reinvigorating the perennial philo-

sophy through ancient manuscripts, what could be more in touch with our own

times than gaining data from laboratory experiments and therapeutic efforts

that would enlarge and, to a limited extent, revise our conception of the human

situation. Great hostility was, as I have shown, felt toward this scientific in-

truder, experimental psychology. In hindsight this is surprising, since experi-

mental psychology as a new endeavor, limited itself to sensory and perceptual

experiments. On the other hand, it is just this part of psychology that possesses

the best claim to being a rigorous science in the traditional sense, and therefore

its practitioners are the most likely to find attempts to attach either metaphysical

PSYCHOLOGY AT THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY 157

assumptions or interpretative guidelines gratuitous and irksome. The philosoph-

ical interpretation of fairly straightforward laboratory findings continued with

Moore in later years when psychology branched out into social and personality

areas. As previously detailed, the leading Catholic psychologists in Europe, Ge-

melli and Michotte, who held more important positions at European Catholic

universities and received greater recognition from the Vatican than any psychol-

ogist at The Catholic University of America could aspire to, had no difficulty

separating psychology from philosophy, even while arguing in behalf of the

Neo-Thomistic philosophy, gua philosophy.

Summing Up

The years immediately following Moore’s retirement in Spain were to result

in a rapid secularization and/or normalization—depending on one’s point of

view—of the psychology department. After Stafford’s retirement in 1959, Dr.

James P. O’Connor, the first lay psychologist, became Chairperson, and soon, as

with many universities, the Chairperson position was on a rotating basis. By the

late 1960s, the department consisted solely of laypersons. The clinical institu-

tions that Moore had founded were mostly separated from the university or

discontinued at the behest of the permanently tenured faculty member, Finan-

cial Exigency. For a time, the Child Center was a well merited exception. The

Child Center, in addition to psychology faculty members, had a consulting

psychiatrist and for several years continued to offer a psychiatric residency. But

even before the Child Center was closed as a budget-tightening measure, new

stationery was ordered and a name change was made to “Department of Psy-

chology.”

The accomplishments of the department during the last 30 years will not be

described here. Suffice it to say, although psychological theorizing has been

recognized by the psychological community as an important contribution on

the part of some recent department members, no one has attempted the enor-

mous task of giving the whole of psychology a metaphysical grounding, as was

advocated by Pace and Moore. Psychological history books describing psycho-

logical systems and theories published after the 1950s ceased mentioning the

possibility of a Neo-Thomist or Neo-Scholastic psychology, and at the Depart-

ment of Psychology of the Catholic University no memory of such a compre-

hensive enterprise exists. Neo-Scholastic psychology had ceased to be an effec-

tive force some years previously in spite of the best efforts of Moore and others.

Perhaps the death knell was sounded in 1941 when the leading non-Catholic,

“return-to-Aristotle” philosopher, Mortimer Adler, wrote in the preface to Rob-

ert Brennan’s Thomistic Psychology (1941), “the edifice of psychology will not

be moved from these foundations.” The historical course of psychology has

158 BRUCE M. ROSS

never been predictable, even by the compiler of the encyclopedia of great ideas,

the Synopticon (1952).

The ending of the Pace-Moore era changed the mission of the Psychology

Department in line with the decline in parochial attitudes of the American

Catholic Church. The Psychology Department, like the Catholic University in

general, was no longer considered the graduate capstone of Catholic education.

The pioneering days of introducing psychology as an academic subject and the

mission of training psychologists to provide faculty for American Catholic col-

leges and universities was over. At an earlier time, the Psychology Department

had been

the model after which several of the early departments of psychology at Catho-

lic colleges and universities were patterned. Furthermore, it was the first Amer-

ican training center of many teachers who staffed the new psychology depart-

ments at these Catholic colleges and universities. From The Catholic

University in Washington, DC, the experimental psychology of Wundt origi-

nally radiated to Catholic circles throughout the United States (Misiak &

Staudt, 1954, p. 82).

Present-day psychology in America with more than 100,000 practitioners of

wide variety is an enterprise perhaps inconceivable when Pace became one of

the first 31 members of the American Psychological Association. The depart-

ment today is part of the academic mainstream in its three graduate programs of

clinical, developmental, and applied experimental psychology. Graduates of

these programs are located around the country and in foreign countries in every

type of college and university, public and private research institution, and pro-

fessional service facility. Their placement prospects are in a national market, not

a Catholic market in which they are favored by virtue of a special type of

preparation. Faculty members strive for and achieve, in varying degrees, success

in reaching interested colleagues in particular specialist areas. It is safe to say,

however, that no psychologist will in the future have to contend with the ideolog-

ical opposition that Pace met with in advocating the teaching of psychology. Nor

will anyone ever match the energetic restlessness of Moore in founding psycho-

logically-based service centers and taking the whole of theoretical psychology as

his province—with, to be sure, his learned corrections liberally dealt out to

theorists of all persuasions. Although shrewder theoretical propositions can of-

ten be gleaned from Moore’s negative criticisms than from his experimental

work, his goal was a positive one that remains a laudable ideal. Moore (1939, p.

604) wrote as the last sentence of his Cognitive Psychology. “And so psychology,

by fairly facing problems and facts, will rise above the atomism of sensationa-

lism and materialism, and will attain to the concept of the human person as a

living, intelligent, substantial being.”

a |

PSYCHOLOGY AT THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY 159

Acknowledgment

This article is dedicated to one of the author’s informants, the Department of

Psychology’s senior member, Professor Emeritus Maurice Lorr.

References

Adler, M. J. (1941). Introduction. In R. E. Brennan, Thomistic psychology New York: Macmillan.

Anable, R. (1941). Philosophical psychology. New York: Fordham University Press.

Boring, E. G. (1950). A history of experimental psychology (2nd ed.). New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts.

Braun, W. P. (1969). Monsignor Edward A. Pace, Educator and Philosopher. Doctoral dissertation, the

Catholic University of America. (Philosophical Studies, no. 235).

Fernberger, S. W. (1932). The American Psychological Association: A historical summary, 1892-1930. Psy-

chological Bulletin, 29:1-89.

Fordham University Press (1923). Fundamental psychology: A digest of lectures for students of Fordham

University. New York: Fordham University Press.

Galvin, J. P. (1985). Karl Rahner’s renewal of Catholic theology. Envoy Fall) 14:9-11. (Also published as

Galvin, J. P. (1985). The Rahner revolution-I: Grace for a new generation. Commonweal, CXII 2:40-42.)

Garvey, C. R. (1929). List of American psychological laboratories. Psychological Bulletin, 26:652-660.

Knapp, T. J. (1985). Contributions to the history of psychology: XX XIX. T. V. Moore and his Cognitive

psychology of 1939. Psychological Reports, 57:1311-1316.

McGuire, M. P. R. (1939). Catholic education and a graduate school (pp. 108-126). In R. J. DeFerran (Ed.),

Vital problems of Catholic education in the United States. Washington, DC: Catholic University of America

Press.

Misiak, H. & V. M. Staudt (1954). Catholics in psychology: Historical survey. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Moore, T. V. (1948). The driving forces of human nature and their adjustment: An introduction to the psychol-

ogy and psychopathology of emotional behavior and volitional control. New York: Grune & Stratton.

Moore, T. V. (1939). Cognitive Psychology. Philadelphia: J.B. Lippincott.

Moore, T. V. (1924). Dynamic psychology: An introduction to modern psychological theory and practice.

Philadelphia: J.B. Lippincott.

Nuesse, C. V. (1990). The Catholic University of America: A centennial history. Washington, DC: Catholic

University of America Press.

Peixotto, H. E. (1969). A history of psychology at Catholic University. Catholic Educational Review, 66:844-

849.

Roback, A. A. (1952). History of American psychology. New Y ork: Library Publishers.

eh ay Sr set

a niet wi ra rina sit - eee ahs!

ae ap: er 0 | 4)

red eet, Miia: ar _ ta Bon 3,8 /

reer. PRT ree REWER A, a

‘epnamy Chal Her ta

4 . :

: a hy A dy mR,

ite. a

in ‘ VULT a: 7 ;

L ‘ , a of ee A { sii 444)

AY teehee, or ee] 3 purl ey y Pte % i

f " } Ries Nee 2 cameanog)

re iy es, *e

| yn 3 ve vate wy, » NO a8

i i: cert

af ¢

aS 4

ens 8

iv.

Lt eet! ve Af “sil

; ig ay “dak “og ytaby 4140 + wy

af . 2 7 > 4

' | | - ae eee te :

ae nee ‘ict ear aaa DAT Ke |

dec Sabine aes te ei eee | aan

saith is er aS . aaa ee ae 1 “

4 Ret ebay:

eres eae. rig

7 owe

wie

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences,

Volume 82, Number 3, Pages 161-167, September 1992

A History of the Department of

Psychology at Howard University

Reginald Hopkins, Sherman Ross, and Leslie H. Hicks

Howard University, Washington, D.C. 20059

ABSTRACT

A brief history of the Psychology Department at Howard University is presented. Some

background information is reported about the University, important early professors, and

some prominent graduates. How being in a black university affected the Department’s activi-

ties is described.

The First Congregational Church of Washington, D.C. was established in

1865 and it still stands at 10th and G. Streets, N.W. In a series of meetings at that

church in 1866, Howard University was conceived. The Congregational parish-

ioners who founded Howard planned it as a university for the freedmen and

their children. Yet when classroom instruction started on May 1, 1867, the

student body was 100 percent white: four daughters of these first Howard pro-

fessors. Within a few years of its opening, Howard started to receive the students

for whom it was intended, but their number in the College of Liberal Arts was

quite small. Dyson (1941), in his history of Howard remarks:

When the College of Liberal Arts of the University opened formally on Sep-

tember 21, 1868, it opened with one student in a class of Greek and Latin.

And for more than thirty years, the classics were emphasized primarily. It is

surprising to learn this. That a university for ex-slaves should emphasize

Greek and Latin seems today, very, very, foolish. (p. 156)

That emphasis on the classics might explain why the first psychology course at

Howard was not offered until 1899. Listed under Philosophy and called, Psy-

chology: the Briefer Course, it was the only course provided until 1906. It is

probable that William James’s Psychology: Briefer Course, published in 1892,

two years after the two volume Principles of Psychology, was the text for this

class. Starting in 1906, other courses in psychology were added, but there was no

department of psychology until 1928.

161

162 HOPKINS, ROSS, AND HICKS

These early courses in psychology were mostly in the service of teacher educa-

tion and had a very applied cast. Psychology’s relation to education at Howard

was similar to those relationships at many U.S. colleges during psychology’s

early years. A major purpose of these colleges was to train teachers. That was

surely a major purpose of Howard, whose Normal Department’s announce-

ment in 1867 stated: “The primary object of the Normal Department is to

prepare teachers for the colored population.” (Logan, 1967, p. 33)

To place psychology in the context of courses offered by the University, it

must be remembered that Howard was established as a private, not a public,

institution by white and black former abolitionists. These founders had as a

model for Howard, private universities in the northeast. Most of the early fac-

ulty at Howard were graduates of these private, northern universities. If these

schools taught Greek, Latin, Philosophy, and now Psychology, Howard would

also have these courses in its curriculum.

Professor Lewis B. Moore, one of the earliest black Ph.D. graduates in the

U.S. (from the University of Pennsylvania in 1896), taught the two courses of

which the psychology curriculum comprised between 1911 and 1917: General

Psychology and Advanced Psychology. Dr. Moore was Professor of Latin and

Pedagogy and later became Dean of the Department of Pedagogy. During the

next five years, two psychology courses were added: Social and Abnormal Psy-

chology. All four courses in the psychology curriculum were taught in this

period by McLeod Harvey who was also Professor of Old Testament History at

Howard until he left in 1923.

Albert S. Beckham, with a master’s degree in psychology from Ohio State,

came in 1924, the first person to teach psychology at Howard whose education

had been primarily in that discipline. Beckham founded a psychological labora-

tory at Howard and taught all the courses in psychology. He left Howard in 1928

to continue his studies in psychology at New York University where he received

the Ph.D. in 1930. His dissertation was one of the earliest of a number of studies

of intelligence of black children done by black psychologists in response to the

prevailing psychological reports of below average black intelligence. His data

showed that black children in the public schools of Washington, D.C., Balti-

more, and New York City were at the same IQ level as national norms (Guthrie,

1976). |

With the arrival of Francis C. Sumner at Howard in the fall of 1928, a Depart-

ment of Psychology was formally established. In Even the rat was white, Guthrie

(1976) called Sumner the “Father of Black American Psychologists.’’ Sumner

deserves this designation because the great majority of American black psycholo-

gists who earned Ph.D. degrees before 1950 were either undergraduate or mas-

ter’s level students of the Howard Department of Psychology. In 1930, Sumner,

PSYCHOLOGY AT HOWARD UNIVERSITY 163

who received his Ph.D. at Clark University in 1921, was joined by another Clark

Ph.D. (1926), Max Meenes. Sumner, Meenes, and a young M.S. graduate of

Howard, Frederick Watts, formed the nucleus of Howard’s Psychology Depart-

ment for the next fifteen years.

Bayton (1975), in a brief biography of Sumner, describes a broadly educated

person with an encyclopedic knowledge of psychology and a non-charismatic

teaching style that, nevertheless, inspired many students to careers in psychol-

ogy. Sumner entered Lincoln University (Pennsylvania) in 1911 at 16 by pass-

ing a written examination, because he had no high school diploma, having

received, according to his employment application at Howard, “private instruc-

tion in secondary subjects by father.”’ Sumner graduated from Lincoln in 1915

Magna cum laude with special honors in English, Modern Languages, Greek,

Latin, and Philosophy.

Sumner began graduate study in psychology at Clark University in the fall of

1917 after receiving a fellowship in psychology from G. Stanley Hall. Sumner

had written Hall that he wished “‘to study race psychology” (Guthrie, 1976, p.

179). Although he did not study race psychology with G. Stanley Hall, the issue

of race was an important one for a time in Sumner’s graduate career at Clark.

According to Guthrie (1976), Sumner wrote several letters to local Worcester

newspapers strongly criticizing the U.S.—during the peak of its involvement in

World War I—in a psychoanalytic interpretation of racism in America. These

letters aroused the local citizens to demand an investigation of Sumner’s loyalty

by the postal authorities. To restore him to good standing, it took a letter from

Sumner apologizing for his “‘disloyalty to my native country” (Guthnie, 1976, p.

180) and a memorandum from G. Stanley Hall explaining that Sumner’s ac-

tions were, in fact, reactions to harsh incidents of prejudice based on race, some

of which he (Sumner) had experienced personally.

Instead, then, of studying race, Sumne?z’s dissertation was, ““The Psychoanaly-

sis of Freud and Adler.’ His major professor was G. Stanley Hall. The other

_members of his Ph.D. committee were E.G. Boring, J.W. Baird, S.W. Fern-

berger, and K. Karlson. The topics of Sumner’s dissertation and the majority of

his research with his master’s students at Howard are not about race. That,

however, reflected the catholic interest of Sumner rather than any lack of con-

cern about psychological issues of race. Bayton (1975) points out that Sumner

was continuously concerned with psychology and black life. Several M.S. theses,

done under his direction, were on topics that would, in the current terminology,

fall under psychology and the black experience.

Psychology at Howard in the 1930s and 1940s was influenced by Clark Uni-

versity and G. Stanley Hall through Sumner’s teaching. Yet G. Stanley Hall had

an earlier and more direct contact with Howard. In 1872, Hall applied for a

164 HOPKINS, ROSS, AND HICKS

position as a chemistry teacher at Howard. A facsimile of Hall’s application

letter in Dyson (1941) has him writing that he had a “‘strong preference” for the

university. It is well-known that Hall’s views on race went through several shifts

in his lifetime.

Hall, an abolitionist, “both by conviction and descent,” recanted those aboli-

tionist views, “I wish to confess my error of opinion in those days” (Hall, 1905,

p. 104). An example of his changed opinion is seen in this observation of Hall’s

(1905):

Another social trait of the negro is found in the sphere of sexual development.

. . . The negro child up to about twelve is quite as bright as the white child;

but when this instinct develops it is earlier, more sudden, and far more likely

permanently to retard mental and moral growth than in the white, who shoots

ahead. (p. 102)

The final irony here is that G. Stanley Hall, probably the leading luminary of

early American psychology and whose terminal views about black people

seemed quite negative, became, through his key financial and moral support of

Francis Sumner, an important, if indirect, influence in the development of black

psychologists.

Further evidence of the concern of Howard’s psychology department with

black issues during the 1930s was the research of M.S. students under the guid-

ance of Max Meenes. Meenes, like Sumner, was a Clark Ph.D. and, like Sumner,

was a person of comprehensive interests. He had studied with Alfred Adler, E.G.

Boring, Walter Hunter, Kurt Koffka, Wolfgang Kohler, and E.B. Titchener.

Meenes had broad experience in almost all of the psychology of that time. He

was a general psychologist when it was still possible to be a “specialist” in general

psychology. The range of topics which his master’s students studied was a good

indication of his breadth. Eidetic imagery, retinal rivalry, whole and part meth-

ods of learning, racial stereotypes, intelligence tests of Negro school children,

and self-concepts of children were a few of the topics of the M.S. theses that were

later published.

Mamie K. Phipps (later Mamie K. Clark) wrote a 1939 master’s thesis di-

rected by Meenes, entitled, An investigation of the development of conscious-

ness of distinctive self in pre-school children. This study of 211 pre-school

children (a number several times larger than that typical of today’s master’s

studies) in Washington, D.C. and White Plains, Mount Vernon, and New Ro-

chelle, New York was the genesis of the Clark (Mamie) and Clark (Kenneth B.)

“‘doll studies”’ whose results are believed to have played an important part in the

1954 Supreme Court decision that segregated public schools are illegal and must

be desegregated.

Both Kenneth and Mamie Clark had distinguished careers in psychology that

PSYCHOLOGY AT HOWARD UNIVERSITY 165

began with bachelors’ and masters’ degrees at Howard. Both earned their PhDs

at Columbia University and worked in New York City: Mamie Clark at the

Northside Clinic (which she and Kenneth Clark founded) and Kenneth Clark as

a Professor at the City College of New York. In addition to his prominence as a

social psychologist, Kenneth Clark, in 1970, was the first black president of the

American Psychological Association. There were none before and, so far, none

after.

Although Kenneth B. Clark is the best known of the psychologists who were

undergraduates in the Howard University Department, two other graduates of

that 1935 class, James A. Bayton and Carlton B. Goodlett, achieved national

prominence after becoming Ph.D.s in psychology. Goodlett became the first

black graduate student in psychology at Berkeley, and the first to receive the

Ph.D. at the University of California in 1938. After four years of teaching psy-

chology at several black colleges, Goodlett became an M.D. and left for San

Francisco. There, he practiced medicine, published a newspaper, and ran in the

primaries for governor; becoming one of the most visible black figures in San

Francisco. After receiving an M.S. from Howard in 1936, Bayton went on to

earn the Ph.D. in 1943 from the University of Pennsylvania. He taught in the

Howard Department from 1947 until his death in 1990. His long career was

marked by many outstanding accomplishments and recognitions of his achieve-

ments. One of the most appropriate and deserved acknowledgements that Bay-

ton received was the Distinguished Teaching Award of the American Psychologi-

cal Association in 1981.

After World War II, Howard, like most other colleges had a large influx of

veterans. Psychology became a more popular major. For example, in 1937,

there were 40 psychology majors among all of the undergraduate students, while

in 1949, there were 88 seniors who graduated with the B.S. in psychology. The

number of bachelor’s level graduates has not been that large since. It has aver-

aged 60-65 a year over the last 15 years. The number of undergraduate majors

has held steady at about 340-390 during the same years. Faculty numbers have

gone from six in 1947 to 22 in 1986.

While psychology, as a major, had become much more popular with under-

graduates, it was in graduate programs that huge increases in students from

pre-World War II levels took place. That was especially true at Howard. Until

1968, Howard’s graduate program in psychology consisted of courses offered

only in the evening and leading to the master’s degree. The Ph.D. program in

psychology began in fall 1968; the program switched from evening to full-time

~ in the day. Enrollment went from an average of 20-25 graduate students in the

1960s to 85-95 in the 1980s. There were 96 graduate students in the fall of 1992.

A Ph.D. graduate program in clinical psychology began at Howard in 1972.

166 HOPKINS, ROSS, AND HICKS

As is true for many departments in the U.S., clinical psychology is the choice of

most psychology graduate students at Howard. As is becoming true for psychol-

ogy departments in America, most of our students are women; of the 96 gradu-

ate students, 68 are women. Since 1973, 102 students have graduated with the

Ph.D. in psychology.

Twice in the last 25 years, large increases in faculty occurred: five new faculty

were hired in 1968 and five more were added to this number in 1980. These

professors made Ph.D. concentrations possible in the following areas: biological,

clinical, developmental, experimental, personality, and social psychology.

Among the professors hired in 1968 were Nissim Levy, Martha T. Mednick, and

Sherman Ross. These were experienced professors with a history of training

graduate students before arriving at Howard. Levy and Ross have since retired,

but both were major advisors to many doctoral students during their time at

Howard. :

Martha Mednick has become a major figure in the psychology of women since

her 1968 arrival at Howard. She has been president of APA’s Division of the

Psychology of Women and has edited three books on the psychology of women.

She has sponsored many studies of career choice and professional activity in

black women, supervising several doctoral students who after graduation are

continuing research on the psychology of black women.

In 1980, five black, male psychologists were hired. That only men were hired

was fortuitous, not intentional. Not so fortuitous, however, was the hiring of

black professors. While the human research studies at Howard always had black

participants, there were times in the Department’s history when black re-

searchers were a distinct minority. For example, in 1956 the six person Depart-

ment had one black and five white professors. These lop-sided numbers, in a still

largely segregated society, were not because a black university was discriminat-

ing racially by not hiring black psychology professors. Rather, there were no

black professors to be hired. By 1980, young black professors were available. By

that year also, black consciousness was well established at the University, and

though not the most prominent feature or perspective of human research in

psychology, it had not gone unnoticed. The Department brought in Curtis

Banks, Wade Boykin, Alfonso Campbell, Jules Harrell, and Stanley Ridley

(since resigned). Banks and Boykin left tenured positions at Princeton and Cor-

nell, respectively; the other three new faculty were just beginning their academic

careers. |

Banks and Boykin are each maintaining programmatic research on black

issues in psychology. Banks and his students are studying the psychology of skin

color in black populations. Boykin has several students investigating cognitive

and motivational styles of young black children and he is also working on

PSYCHOLOGY AT HOWARD UNIVERSITY 167

contrasts in Afrocentric and Eurocentric perspectives and personality correlates

in black populations.

Alfonso Campbell, a neuropsychologist, has been studying, with the help of

several graduate students, neuropsychological norms in black patients with la-

teralized brain lesions. Jules Harrell, a psychophysiologist with a special interest

in personality variables, is studying the reactions of black subjects to psychologi-

cal stress brought on by racially-noxious stressors.

These brief descriptions of faculty and their research give some flavor of the

Howard Department. There are many other faculty who also could have been

listed. Yet research was not the major mission at Howard. Howard, throughout

its existence, has been primarily a teaching university. That is why much of this

document is about the teaching of Sumner, Meenes and Bayton. These profes-

sors taught five courses per semester for most of their long careers. It was not

until 1961 that the teaching load at Howard was reduced from five to four

courses per semester in the College. The normal load continues to be four

courses per semester!

Francis Sumner, who shaped the foundation of the Department, as a teacher,

was a continuous mentor to Kenneth Clark, James Bayton, and many others.

He was a significant person in the development of their careers, continuing in

this role beyond their student days at Howard. This version of the

professor—discovering, developing, and motivating talented students—has

been the major accomplishment of the Howard Psychology Department.

References

Bayton, J. A. (1975). Francis Sumner, Max Meenes, and the training of black psychologists, American Psychol-

ogist, 30, 185-186.

Dyson, W. (1941). Howard University: The capstone of Negro Education. Washington, D.C.: The Graduate

School Howard University.

Guthrie, R. V. (1976). Even the rat was white: A historical view of psychology. New York: Harper & Row.

Hall, G. S. (1905). The Negro in Africa and America, Pedagogical Seminary, 12, 350-368.

James, W. (1890). The principles of psychology. New York: Henry Holt & Co.

James, W. (1892). Psychology: Briefer course. New York: Henry Holt & Co.

Logan, R. W. (1969). Howard University: The first hundred years. 1867-1967 New York: New York Univer-

sity Press.

f ‘ ‘

x P| r

= rs ih fh

: Pp. * , ar

A ati f 2 ts

bat PEE DTT at §. fadleel

5 ; Dae

Paes ’ +e

Lynas 22 Ly aad

f 7, 7

) Ce

: aa

eS ee

; ?,

yAg ” ‘

: meee <

MS) ap

egice o BE ere oo gRRER SINNER AL RAR

eee + 2 WiuAte ininenalel mash ASHE ihe Tt , t

i} eg an, DOR Se eyed:

nA the CREO REMEE D diate i

Py anid fs RETRO 9L) es Oe ci

7 ? 3 ingte aay $F ° ‘ aC

hel) ae iq (he OP me Cl ‘>? ete > en. Shee an

ME a Due Arg ed pene a Nia? fo uae ie) ih i a oy

Stil Teqeromy teangeg

» eur aati if. Deg: iui asegtai “i

{ . 424 is é “i ¥¥ ‘ isnt. ve cat wp f 4 : af A pags aed Lf ba

ale an IO FEO LMA AS aie 2 SM saved 28

ae , ;

1a ntl J ANA AN Pack OC a ae a ERIE, ne

; partie ty det “Re

2 = -

HTD Ww irk we arti eat 2

rT t > A Pega 4 My J a:

- q ¥ »

’ i , i

7 4 £

Pere faa ¥ Lp gh T Eby) ete

J -

oa d Rah? y . g

: wm i

e 4

> ¥ ,; A

ons ee ie

nd ‘

; -

* ,

4 soe

{

’

2 z

2 a a

rig ES

Pa he

a) el ¥ we . :

iS a wae res Ohi ; ea Te

i, aN hore. Betr at Ng ap ‘ rf = $

Ce anhartetens, Oe

Waring: ;

at 2 aes s 7 = aA

™* t

4 lee ichaliglt a : BO a pg

et 2 hpetuies ; :

i = a \ vie ; a

DER eit :

;

4 in %

{

= }|

ahi |

: oC inlet

}

ge aes

2 ira

i 2 nA Bhs = ¥ é i

vane a ES Ch De : r) ai inact

- Pi anh Peel eS

sad aes , a 4 LTS y rice : :

‘ > = : v J » : '

eae a ie) an : ; ‘ epee aay

DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES,

REPRESENTING THE LOCAL AFFILIATED SOCIETIES

Prilosopitcal society Of Washington 22: 0225.650 25.40.53 che wane bees Thomas R. Lettien

Amtaropolosical Society of Washinetom™.....2.......0.00.................. Belford Lawson III

Berea leSOciety Ol WashinstOm 27) .05)%. sGedsess ise coos seen aueaeoerees Kristian Fauchald

Milemmcausocicty Of \Washimetonre o.oo cba eee be det ese ae ble cee ae anes Elise A. B. Brown

EnjonroloricallSociety of Washington’... 222... .....62.0.0..008.6 8 _ F. Christian Thompson

PM CI EG@xCOCTAPIIC SOCICLY. .6) 5.0). 02) Soo oh no Noa ie Wb pelt poses oe Stanley G. Leftwich

Reel serealSOctety Ob Washimetomice.. 3. fe 408 cca 2) fh cl 2 ih ja Sadly oe Toe eee ad lates VACANT

Pieceicamsociety ot the istrict of Coluumbiay < os.0 oss eS Ss eho oe tons John P. Utz

iistemeal Society Of Washington, IDCs. 2.0.8 i oes ee yee sate 8 Thomas G. Manning

Hancinecd Rsoctelycol WaShinetoln. 20 ao. eis «ees seine sc cle ue sdjare ee secmude Us Muriel Poston

Sucict On Amencan Foresters, Washington Section... 22. 00ee.c0. beers eek Eldon W. Ross

TMASiiIerOnRSOClety OL ENSINCENS <5 iacees casi th Gees coe etka eects qe uulee ous oem Alvin Reiner

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Washington Section ........ George Abraham

American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Washington Section ......... Clayton W. Robson

Helmimonolorical Society Of WashinGtoMms 02.6 oo. ee ee Se bk See de ee ces VACANT

American Society for Microbiology, Washington Branch .................. Herman Schneider

Society of American Military Engineers, Washington Post ................. William A. Stanley

American Society of Civil Engineers, National Capital Section .............. John N. Hummel

Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine, DC Section .............. Cyrus R. Creveling

Povinnteinanonal Washington’ Chapter ....6.....00..0 ores ees oe cele ees Pamela S. Patrick

American Association of Dental Research. Washington Section ............. J. Terrell Hoffeld

American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, National Capital

SIECILOW 5 sang ches Aes SRG a te ain Ns Aree a nee Reginald C. Smith

Aincieanevictcorological: Society, DC Chapter <.... 608.6 nce kede eves e eee A. James Wagner

PEG: SiC ETCE (SOTOUENIVEO) BAYS) 011 0100) 0 ene To be determined

AcousticalsSociety of America, Washington Chapter .......5..0.0......566.. Richard K. Cook

Minenicanlymucicar SOciety,.Washingtom SECHON <5... os ces ce oe gw ee owe bn ees Kamal Araj

Instituteon Food Technologists, Washington Section ..................05...... Roy E. Martin

American Geramic Society, Baltimore-Washington Section .................. Curtis A. Martin

EIS GURONE Meme NS OCIELY cence tess isieyoine ciers be cesieie echoes ees wea AG vim diene shadlaiecetes Regis Conrad

Mashineroninustony of Science Club, 2s. .20 5) os ce ole eee ee ee Doe Albert G. Gluckman

American Association of Physics Teachers, Chesapeake Section ............. Robert A. Morse

Optical Society of America, National’ Capital Section ..:.2................. William R. Graver

American Society of Plant Physiologists, Washington Area Section ............. Steven J. Britz

Washington Operations Research/Management Science Council .............. John G. Honig

instrument Society of America, Washington Section ...........2........22... Donald M. Paul

American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers,

PVESMIMELOMESCCLION wraniyeune eel noctoe Moir SLC A ey OL we eg Harold Newman

INatreanal Capital AStrOMOMERS: 4.6. .a ist le cole slave ot sets ee ek bares Robert H. McCracken

Mathematics Association of America, MD-DC-VA Section ................. Sharon K. Hauge

Distmet of ColumbiaInstitute of Chemists 25)....¢..0-52..-se2.20-0 5.25. William E. Hanford

Districuon Columbia Psychological Association 3... 6). 5.2 ick ede oes oe Ron Wynne

Washington Paint Technology Group ............. SF a Miglin seh mere tore Bd peace) ee Lloyd M. Smith

American Phytopathological Society, Potomac Division ..................... Kenneth L. Deahl

Society for General Systems Research, Metropolitan Washington

Blac elas Oo et eee neem ae ae Ca ate ta io RO eke et as ae David B. Keever

lumandkactors: society. Potomac @hapter.)... 2)... 0 65 esc a coe een Thomas B. Malone

AIberican Fishenes Society rotomac Chapter: 2). 6..4....-s2550e8 bea. Dennis R. Lassuy

Associationdor Science, Nechnology and Innovation (s..405.0. 4 Ralph I. Cole

Fasten Sociological Society at hewn es ose EO en ee Ronald W. Manderscheid

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Northern Virginia

Section. 4. oe Pe eet ial wees in Laas aimee a ee Blanchard D. Smith

Association for Computing Machinery, Washington Chapter ............. Charles E. Youman

Washington, StatisticaltSocietyars eater errs tac eur eek ey eee cae sk we Gil Nancy Flournoy

Society of Manufacturing Engineers, Washington, DC Chapter ............... James E. Spates

Institute of Industrial Engineers, National Capital Chapter ................... James S. Powell

Delegates continue to represent their societies until new appointments are made.

Washington Academy of Sciences 2nd Class Postage Paid

2100 Foxhall Road, NW at Washington, DC

Washington, DC 20007-1199 and additional mailing offices.

Return Postage Guaranteed

__aaeae

| {

ws | /

VOLUME 82

Number 4

J Our nal of the | December, 1992

WASHINGTON

ACADEMY... SCIENCES

ISSN 0043-0439

Issued Quarterly

at Washington, D.C.

Nov 021998.

_ LIBRARIES

CONTENTS

Articles:

FELIX A. BUOT, “Nanoscience and Nanotechnology” <.........:........:-

Presidential Address:

WALTER E. BOEK, “How Scientific Is Survey Research? A Comparison of

Resultsiot Sunmveys Onune same LOPIC:: |) os...5. 2a ode ose oe eo oe omen ele

Academy Reports:

C. R. CREVELING, “‘The Washington Academy of Sciences Awards Program

for scientific Achievement mm: 199277) 432 <5 cee si es eee eee eee

“Past Presidents of the Washington Academy of Sciences” ...................

“1992 Washington Academy of Sciences Membership Directory” ............

Washington Academy of Sciences

Founded in 1898

EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

President

Stanley G. Leftwich

President-Elect

John H. Proctor

Secretary

Nina M. Roscher

Treasurer

Norman Doctor

Past President

Walter E. Bock

Vice President, Membership Affairs

Cyrus R. Creveling

Vice President, Administrative Affairs

Grover C. Sherlin

Vice President, Junior Academy Affairs

Marylin B. Krupsaw

Vice President, Affiliate Affairs

Thomas W. Doeppner

Board of Managers

James W. Harr

John H. Proctor

Herbert H. Fockler

T. Dale Stewart

William B. Taylor

James H. Donahue

REPRESENTATIVES FROM

AFFILIATED SOCIETIES

Delegates are listed on inside rear cover

of each Journal.

ACADEMY OFFICE

2100 Foxhall Road, N.W.

Washington, D.C. 20007

Phone: (202) 337-2077

EDITORIAL BOARD

Editor:

Bruce F. Hill, Mount Vernon College

Associate Editors:

Milton P. Eisner, Mount Vernon Col-

lege

Albert G. Gluckman, University of

Maryland

Marc Rothenberg, Smithsonian Insti-

tution

Marc M. Sebrechts, Catholic Univer-

sity of America

Edward J. Wegman, George Mason

University

The Journal

This journal, the official organ of the Washing-

ton Academy of Sciences, publishes original

scientific research, critical reviews, historical

articles, proceedings of scholarly meetings of

its affiliated societies, reports of the Academy,

and other items of interest to Academy

members. The Journal appears four times a

year (March, June, September, and De-

cember). The December issue contains a di-

rectory of the current membership of the

Academy.

Subscription Rates

Members, fellows, and life members in good

standing receive the Journal without charge.

Subscriptions are available on a calendar year

basis, payable in advance. Payment must be

made in U.S. currency at the following rates:

US. and Canada «2.7.25 $25.00

Other ‘countties .... 2 .-5e- eee eee 30.00

Single copies, when available ....... 10.00

Claims for Missing Issues

Claims will not be allowed if received more

than 60 days after the day of mailing plus time

normally required for postal delivery and

claim. No claims will be allowed because of

failure to notify the Academy of a change of

address.

Notification of Change of Address

Address changes should be sent promptly to

the Academy Office. Such notification should

show both old and new addresses and zip

codes.

POSTMASTER: Send address changes to

Washington Academy of Sciences, 2100 Fox-

hall Road, N.W. Washington, DC 20007-

1199.

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences (ISSN 0043-0439)

Published quarterly in March, June, September, and December of each year by the Washing-

ton Academy of Sciences, 2100 Foxhall Road, N.W., Washington, DC, 20007-1199. Second

Class postage paid at Washington, DC and additional mailing offices.

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences,

Volume 82, Number 4, Pages 169-195, December 1992

Nanoscience and N anotechnology’

Felix A. Buot

Electronics Science and Technology Division

Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC. 20375, USA

ABSTRACT

An overview is given to major developments in nanoelectronics, new device concepts,

physical modeling and computational techniques in nanoscience and nanotechnology.

Introduction

Modern electronic materials fabrication techniques utilizing controlled parti-

cles and energy beams coupled with etching and masking technology, such as

molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) and advanced lithography, have provided

means to fabricate small structures with resolution already approaching the

atomic scale. The advent of scanning tunneling microscope (STM) and atomic-

scale fabrication using the principle of STM have added a new dimension in the

fabrication towards atomic sizes (Garcia, 1992; Dobisz, et al., 1991; Marrian, et

al., 1987; McCord & Pease, 1986). The term nanofabrication is appropriately

applied to modern epitaxial growth and lithographic techniques that are capable

of making artificial structure with 10 nm feature size or less.

In the late seventies, the ideas of mesoscopic physics and nanoelectronics were

borne, encouraged and stimulated by intriguing theories (e.g. localization in

lower dimensional structures) and speculations regarding the novel physical

phenomena that can be observed in finite ““atomic-scale’”’ structure which can be

fabricated (Buot, 1986, 1987a; Anderson, et al., 1979; Dolan & Osheroff, 1979;

Krumhansl & Pao, 1979; Physics Today, 1979). The distinction between meso-

scopic physics and nanoelectronics is used here to reflect an idea, regarding the

treatment of transport problems, similar to the distinction between solid-state

" Paper to be presented at conference on science and technology for developing countries. Manila, Philip-

pines, July 12-13, 1993, Entitled “Mesoscopic physics and nanoelectronics: nanoscience and nanotechno-

logy.”

169

170 FELIX A. BUOT

physics and solid-state electronics. Moreover the electronic community sees a

promising potential application of nanostructures and nanostructure physics

for the continued downscaling of device size, system architecture and intercon

nects. A rapid growth of mesoscopic physics and nanoelectronics really started

around 1985, with mesoscopic physics largely dominated by the IBM-related

community (Likharev, 1988), and nanoelectronics integrated circuits (IC) re-

search by the Texas Instruments (1989), geared towards planar IC layout, and by

AT&T Laboratories (Capasso; et al., 1989) and Fujitsu (Yokayama, et al.,

1985), who are mainly involved in discrete ““mesa’’ nanodevice design and

circuit demonstrations.

The electronics device community has been witnessing a strong and definite

trend in the miniaturization of integrated circuits and components towards the

atomic-scale dimensions. Today conventional devices with feature size below

100 nm are made and function well. There are, however, beginning to be reliabil-

ity-related issues and problems, for conventional devices in smaller dimensions,

which point to other directions for continued down scaling of electronics devices

and integrated circuits. When transport dimension reaches a characteristic di-

mension, namely, the charge-carrier inelastic coherence length, and the charge-

carrier confinement dimension approaches the Fermi wavelength, then classical

device physics based on the motion of particles and ensemble averaging are

expected to be invalid; the wave nature of the electrons, discreteness of energy

levels and sample specific properties must now be taken into account The main

goal of nanoelectronics is to sustain a continued downscaling of IC, resulting in

more complex functions per chip. These goals can be accomplished by scaling

down each transistor. However, the circuit interconnects do not scale down with

device dimensions, and may actually dominate the IC delays Thus, circuit inter-

connects would present a formidable problem at some point in the continued

downscaling of transistors, whose solution may lie in the development of infor-

mation-based physics of coupled quantum devices. This may lead to novel

device concepts and IC architectures. The nanoelectronics community ex-

pressed optimism that if all these goals succeed, supercomputer could be real-

ized in a single chip.

_Conventional IC technologies will definitely reach a limit and cease to func-

tion properly for a number of reasons: (1) the device physics in conventional ICs

obey the law of large numbers and/or thermodynamic limits; (2) device dimen-

sions are large compared to coherence lengths so that energy quantization,

quantum interference and discreteness of charge carriers do not play a signifi-

cant role in device transport physics. Thus, in order for the downscaling of

electron devices to realize nanoelectronics one must address quantum trans-

port, tunneling and interference effects, and discreteness of electron charge in

NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY 171

small semiconductor structures. The investigation of nonequilibrium phenom-

ena in small structures is the common denominator between the research com-

munity from mesoscopic physics and nanoelectronics. Indeed, the nanostruc-

ture science field offers unprecedented opportunities for both fundamental

scientific research and technological breakthroughs.

Several reviews on small structures have focused on nanofabrication and/or

mesoscopic phenomena. In this paper, we present an overview of nanoelectron-

ics, focusing on new device concepts, physical modeling and computational

techniques.

Nanoelectronics

- Nanoelectronics research aims in applying the novel mesoscopic phenomena

towards the goals of continued down-scaling of IC components down to the

atomic scale and the consequent upscaling of computational complexity per

chip (Bate, 1989). Nanoelectronics is highly interdisciplinary and may eventu-

ally need the cross disciplinary approaches based on the mathematical, physical,

chemical and/or biological sciences to fully implement its goals (Hopfield,

1990). This involves the study of cognitive symbolization, their interactive rela-

tions, and computational aspects of the natural laws of the physical and life

sciences.

The most useful device in solid-state electronics, which has brought the infor-

mation revolution, is the transistor. The transistor is basically a device which

accomplishes two very important functions, namely, “control” and “drive.”

The “drive” function is accomplished by applying a large voltage difference

across two terminals of the device, known as the source (emitter) and drain

(collector). The “‘control’’ function is implemented by simply controlling the

self-consistent potential barriers to current flow between the two terminals. Both

functions are important in obtaining the “gain” of the device. Purely electronic

control of the self-consistent potential barrier to current flow between the source

(emitter) and drain (collector) is accomplished in two general ways:

1. by directly introducing a biasing (control) charge in the way of the current flow, 1.e.,

inside the transport channel to modulate the self-consistent potential barrier. The

biasing charge or current comes from an electrode in contact with the “‘base”’ region

in the transport channel,

2. by depleting the charge carriers in the channel which leads to the creation of potential

barrier induced by a voltage applied at the “gate” electrode.

Conventional transistors employing the first method above are called bipolar

transistors and falls into two categories, 1.e., the p-n-p transistor and the n-p-n

transistor. In both cases, the biasing charge arise from the base-emitter current

S02 FELIX A. BUOT

and has an opposite charge from the current-carrying charge from the emitter to

collector. Conventional transistors employing the second method are called

unipolar transistors or field-effect transistors. Thus an electronic device which

delivers voltage gain and current drive is basically a three-terminal device. Note

that the role of the power supply is essential to obtain gain (Buot, et al., 1988).

Because of the major role of lateral depletion regions in a conventional bipolar

devices, these devices are not scalable compared to field-effect devices. On the

other hand, bipolar transistors, are inherently high-speed devices compared to

field-effect transistors by virtue of their low base-emitter capacitance. The prom-

inence that three-terminal devices have in the electronics area is due to their

ability to transmit and amplify (gain > 1) information signals over indefinite

distances without attenuation, and to provide good isolation between input and

output of a logic gate allowing a computational process to proceed in a prédeter-

mined fashion.

The major attraction of resonant tunneling devices (RTDs), and other pro-

posed quantum-based devices, is their ultrasensitive response to voltage bias in

going from the high-transmission state to the low-transmission state. If these

devices are able to operate under high bias and far-from-equilibrium condition,

this essentially means that a very high transistor transconductance and ultra-fast

switching are obtainable. Indeed, numerical simulations of RTD, to be dis-

cussed later, and microwave experimental results, indicate the intrinsic speed

limit of RTD to be in the tera-Hz range. This high-sensitivity to bias in far-from-

equilibrium operating condition can inevitably lead to a very high gain. More-

over, there is a strong indication that the gain can further be improved by

appropriate design of the source and drain resistance.”

However in the continued down scaling of three-terminal device sizes and

consequent upscaling of complexity per chip, a “‘wiring crisis” will result and is

essentially characterized as follows: (a) the number and length of interconnec-

tions will scale up and (b) the cross-section of the wire will have to scale down to

allow more communication paths per area in the chip. The first will offset the

benefits of faster device switching, since long interconnections create delays.

The second will aggravate the problem of connection delays since the narrower

the wire the larger is its resistance. In fact, for nonideal small metal wires, the

resistance can go up exponentially as a function of its length. It is not yet clear

whether research is novel computer architecture based on three-terminal de-

vices and multi-valued logic will eventually solve this problem.

A direct approach to the interconnect problem is to scale down the intercon-

* The absolute value of the effective NDR was found to increase as a result of the voltage drop across the

series resistors, creating a distortion of the I-V Characterictic as calculated in reference (Buot & Jensen, 1990).

TE ee cg re

iat ae

NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY | 173

nects as well, from the conventional architecture, by eliminating long intercon-

nects per chip, through computerized circuit-layout optimization, e.g., through

the use of simulated annealing techniques. Another realistic approach may lie

on the advances made in monolithic IC optical communication technologies,

such as the one recently proposed by Yamanaka, et al. (1991) using optoelec-

tronic integrated circuit (OEIC) chipset for chip-to-chip optical communica-

tion. Elimination of wiring interconnects, and/or interconnects whose number

does not scale up with computational complexity per chip, is contained in

various proposals which drastically employs very different architectures. Texas

Instruments has proposed the use of cellular automaton architecture (Bate,

1989; Texas Instrument Technical Journal, 1989), in which the devices are

connected only to their nearest neighbor. A more detailed proposal is explained

in (Lent, et al., 1992). What is intriguing about this architecture is that the

coupling is not implemented by physical “‘wires’” but accomplished through

capacitive coupling between, say, neighboring quantum dots. However, the

“forces” and “rule” of the new computational dynamics appropriate to a cellu-

lar automation architecture that correspond to the Boolean logic, “drive’’ and

“gain” (coupling) in conventional transistor-based general purpose computers

are not entirely clear. General purpose computing requires arbitrary stored pro-

grams and data as part of the initial configuration of the computer computa-

tional dynamics, and an unlimited depth of computation. Cellular automata

(CA) architecture seems to lack the ability to undertake an unlimited depth of

processing by virtue of the presence of the inherent feedback mechanisms. Nota-

bly, the ability to tailor the deterministic computational dynamics in a general-

purpose computer according to an arbitrary program stored in the memory is

not even addressed in all the proposals for the CA architecture. Nevertheless, the

ability to represent a bit of information by one electron in quantum cellular

automaton circuit is very intriguing, and clearly represent the ultimate efh-

ciency in information representation. General-purpose computer design based

on coupled CA building blocks, with OEIC chipset optical communication

between CA blocks, also need to be explored. In any case, quantum cellular

automaton architecture idea should open up strong interests in information-

based mathematical, physical and biological sciences to establish the necessary

analytical knowledge base needed for the search for a new general-purpose com-

putational dynamics (Hopfield, 1990).

Nanodevices

Current research effort in nanoelectronics are centered on nanodevices, more

specifically on nanotransistors. These are essentially three-terminal nanode-

174 FELIX A. BUOT

vices. Research effort directed to a new general purpose computational dy-

namics and drastically novel computer architecture to avoid the wiring crisis is

still at the embryonic stage of development (Bate, 1989; Texas Instrument

Technical Journal, 1989).

Resonant Tunneling Devices

Nanodevice research is centered on the utilization of resonant tunneling

switching phenomena and quantum interference (Bragg interference, as in peri-

odic crystals) phenomena in superlattices, for enhanced inelastic coherence

lengths and high-effective charge-carrier mobility (Sakaki, 1992). Resonant tun-

neling phenomena have attracted the attention of the device community basi-

cally in the form of two-terminal GaAs/AlGaAs/GaAs diodes with significant

voltages applied at the source and drain (Bonnefol, et al., 1985; Sollner, et al.,

1984; Tsu & Esaki, 1973; Chang et al., 1974). The resulting quantum transport

process is far from equilibrium and highly nonlinear. The really attractive fea-

ture is that resonant tunneling at these voltages is observed even at room temper-

ature. In order to make nanotransistors, one simply needs to control the current

flow by any one of the two general purely electronic methods, used in conven-

tional transistors, to control the alignment of the resonant energy level with the

Fermi level of the source (emitter). It is clear that obtaining gain would pose no

problem, even at room temperature. As a corollary, a novel quantum transport

process has to operate in far-from-equilibrium two-terminal diode format in

order to have a clear potential for use in a three-terminal transistor with a

reasonable gain (Buot, et al. 1988).

A common wisdom in the IC community can be expressed as follows. In order

for a transistor to have a potential for insertion into a general purpose program-

mable computer system, the input-output transfer characteristic of a logic gate

must have an unstable midpoint or “fixed point’”’ where “‘low”’ state and “hi”

state can no longer be discriminated and a stable limit cycle where complete

discrimination of ‘“‘hi’’ and “‘low”’ states occur. This condition is necessary to

have a restoring logic gate.

The variability of input signal will become a critical issue, as pointed out by

Landauer (1989), for RTDs proposed for a general purpose computer. Landauer

noted that, unlike conventional transistors, the most fundamental problem

arises from the fact that in quantum-based devices high-transmission conduct-

ing state occurs only for particular values of the input signal and for particular

values of the structural and physical parameters describing the device structure.

Tunneling current depends exponentially on the thickness of the barriers [more-

over, Symmetric and asymmetric barriers may have completely different I-V

characteristics at very low temperatures (Eaves, et al., 1990), and high-transmis-

NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY 175

sion voltage depends on the thickness of the quantum well. On a related vein,

any proposal which advocates the use of multi-valued logic over the binary logic

appears to aggravate the signal tolerance and discrimination problem. Clearly,

the high-demands placed on manufacturing control are expected to be a chal-

lenging manufacturing problem which will continue to confront researchers in

quantum tunneling devices and ICs. We estimate that cascaded logic circuits

with well-fabricated RTDs, employing binary logic, will have about 20% of the

total-voltage-swing signal tolerance, compared to about 50% of the total voltage

swing in conventional CMOS. Variability of the RTDs would call for a much

larger signal tolerance, if this is at all possible. All these seem to add up to a

challenging set of device specifications and manufacturing-yield uniformity.

To our knowledge, RTD integrated circuits have, so far, only been experimen-

tally demonstrated initially in the form of “uncoupled” circuit configurations,

1.€., aS single-stage input/output circuit configurations (Capasso, et al., 1989).

Indeed, single-stage analog and digital-logic circuits have satisfactorily been

demonstrated throughout the world, e.g., as frequency multiplier/divider, as

exclusive NOR gate, as parity generator, as multi-state memory, and analog-to-

digital converter (Capasso, et al., 1989). Recently up to two stage logic coupling

has been demonstrated, 1.e., two-stage X NOR logic gate combination in the

form of a full adder (Takatsu, et al., 1992; Imamura, et al., 1992) circuit. It is

most critical for the future of RTD applications to general purpose computer,

that as the technology for RTD-based IC further develops, a satisfactory experi-

mental demonstration of coupled and closed-loop array of input-output logic

stages must be realized to physically simulate a very long computation. Indeed, a

ring oscillator IC of inverter-logic-gate chain with fan-out and fan-in logic blocks

should simulate an infinitely long computational process.

Schrodinger-Wave Guide and Aharonov-Bohm Effect Devices

Schrodinger wave guide and Aharonov-Bohm effect device concepts have

been introduced basically as three-terminal devices from the very start, with no

demonstrated “drive” and gain capability, i.e., source and drain terminals are

simply current biased near equilibrium. The present emphasis placed in this

research is on the novel controls, which is similar to electromagnetic wave guide

devices (including ’’ Fabry-Perot resonance”’ type of localization resonance), ob-

tained upon varying the geometrical parameters of a “‘stub,” “‘double constric-

tion” or a “bend,” by means of the control of the confining depletion-layer wall

in portions of the stub, double constriction or bend through the voltage applied

at the gate terminal. These devices also very much depend on the device size to

be less or equal to the inelastic coherence length to operate. Thus they are

expected to operate only at very low temperatures, for devices that can be fabri-

176 FELIX A. BUOT

cated today. To provide gain, these devices must still be able to shut off at a high

drain voltage (with the source at zero voltage). However, a high drain voltage

will accelerate the carriers changing their wavelengths and therefore affects

quantum interference in a complicated nonlinear manner, and an off-state at

high drain voltage is not easily met by the electrostatic (depletion-layer con-

trolled) Aharonov-Bohm effect devices, thereby seriously limiting the gain (Sa-

kaki, 1992). Perhaps with ingenuous design of the waveguiding channels, reason-

able gain can be obtained for these devices, particularly for Schrodinger

waveguide devices with controlled localization at a stub, double-constriction

or bends.

Single Electron Effect Devices

Coulomb blockade phenomena, as applied to the concept of a “single-elec-

tron dominated” transistor is expected to have an attractive drive and gain

capability. They are expected to be the natural consequence of “‘lateral’’ scaling

down of the present resonant tunneling transistors for ultra high density ICs.

Forerunners of “single electronics” is embodied in the current proposal for

quantum-coupled logic gates at TI (Bate, et al. 1989) (strictly speaking, a single-

electron transport can not support “fan out’’/“‘fan-in” between input/output

logic stages).

The basic physical scale in these phenomena 1s the charging-energy scale. This

energy can be large if C is small. For a small area junction or a small Coulomb

island or small quantum well, C is proportional to the cross-section of the

junction or the size of the Coulomb island and can be of the order of attofarad in

GaAs-based embedding medium. Thus, the energy of charging by one electron

can become significant and hence a single-electron behavior begins to dominate

the carrier flow across the tunnel junction or Coulomb island at low enough

temperatures, T ~ 10 K.

In the purely classical case, a tunnel junction only serves as a tunnel barrier

between conducting wires delivering a quasi continuous supply of charge (polar-

ization charge due to arbitrary shift of electrons and ions in the wire). The

parabolic dependence of the charging energy with the charge Q and the discrete

transfer of electronic charge across the junction leads to an instability for elec-

tron transfer across junction when | Q | > e/2, Fig. la. When | Q | > e/2, an

electron transfer becomes favorable reducing the charge by one electronic

charge (i.e., the states —e/2 and e/2 are degenerate and differ by one electron

charge). In the presence of a current source the process of charging and recharg-

ing periodically repeats yielding a periodic voltage and charge oscillation across

the junction, with average frequency equal to I/e. The range of polarization

charge —e/2 < Q < e/2 is the Coulomb blockade range. i.e.. the transfer of

electrons across the junction is energetically impossible.

NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY > 177

The other type of single-electron dominated phenomena is much more prom-

ising for potential direct applications to nanoelectronics (Averin & Likharev

1991; Likharev & Claeson, 1992; Likharev, 1988; Kastner, 1992; Houten, 1992;

Harmans, 1992). What is even more interesting is that this phenomena has been

observed in small structures fabricated by simple or minor modification of

existing novel heterojunction devices (also true for single-electron tunnel junc-

tion discussed above). By means of patterning the metal gates of aGaAs HEMT

device structure or a Si-Si1O02 MOSFET device structure (Harmans, 1992), one

can implement a single-electron field-effect transistor as schematically shown in

Fig. 1b, where the region between the two potential barriers defines a Coulomb

island (classical) or ““quantum dot” (quantum mechanical). The point is that the

number of charges in the Coulomb island can be controlled by the gate voltage

ina rather continuous manner by means of the polarization by the gate voltage.

If we assume that the Coulomb island can have integral number of transferred

electrons, 1.e., quantized number of transferred charges, the polarization charge

induced by the gate allows us to shift the charge in the Coulomb island in

continuous manner. By adjusting the gate voltage so that Q, = (N + 1/2) e, then

U becomes degenerate for Q = Ne and Q = (N + 1)e, i.e., it does not cost energy

to add one more electron, Fig. 1c, this indicates that transport across the Cou-

lomb island by one electron is most favorable. On the other hand when Q, = Ne,

it will cost energy to transfer an additional electron to or out of the Coulomb

island (increase/decrease of charge by one electron). Under this condition, there

will be an activation energy for a current to flow, this is the Coulomb blockade.

Thus, one expects the conductance to be zero for Q, equal to integral number of

electron charge and to become large for odd-half integral number of electron

charge. Indeed, experiments on Coulomb island in a 600 nm diameter size in

a 2-DEG of GaAs/AlGaAs HEMT-like heterostructures have observed the

conductance to go to zero periodically as a function of the gate voltage (Har-

mans, 1992).

The promise of single-electron transistor and the goals of nanoelectronics for

ultra-dense IC’s point to a serious consideration on how the inherent classically-

based single-electron effects change with the reduction of the Coulomb island to

quantum dot, where there are quantization of energy eigenstates in addition to

the quantization of charge. The quantization of energy will surely effect the

tunneling. Groups from Massachusetts Institute of Technology and IBM

Thomas J Watson Research Center have observed Coulomb blockade in quan-

tum dots (McEuen, et al., 1991). The AT&T Bell Laboratories and the Univer-

sity of New York at Stony Brook have also obtained Coulomb blockade behav-

ior using quantum wells (Su, et al., 1992; Guéret, et al., 1992; Ashoori, et al.,

1992). The effect of the quantization of energy on the Coulomb blockade behav-

ior is schematically explained in Fig. 1d.

178 FELIX A. BUOT

-e/2 0 +e/2 Q

metal

lead particle _lead

e2/C .

E¢ LS

Li,

' Qo=(N+5)e

See fe Aye er a

N-2 N-1 N N+1N+2 N-1 N N+1 N+2

Q(e) Q(e)

Lead Island Lead Island

(d)

Fig. 1. (a) [Averin & Likharev, 1991 reprinted with permission.] Charging energy of small junction as a

function of the polarization charge Q. The discreteness of the electronic charge e leads to the instability for

electron transfer at | Q | > e/2.(b) [Kastner, 1992 reprinted with permission] Coulomb island and correspond-

ing energy levels. The Coulomb island has an energy gap in its tunneling density of states. (c) Charging energy

versus polarization charge Q in a Coulomb island. Q, is the charge that minimizes the charging energy by

varying the gate voltage. Because charge is discrete, only quantized values of the energy will be possible for a

given Q, When Q, = Ne. there will be an activation energy for current to flow, this is the Coulomb blockade.

However. when Q, = (N + 1/2)e, the state with Q = Ne and Q = (N + 1)e are degenerate, and the energy gap of

the tunneling density of states vanishes. This results in the conductance with periodic sharp peaks as function

of the gate voltage, with period e/C. (d) Schematic energy-level diagram showing the effect of the quantization

of energy in the Coulomb island. The conductance peak at Q, = (N + 1/2)e also requires that the Fermi level of

NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY 179

Nanotransistor Designs

Several proposals and experimental nanotransistor devices are based on the

different ways of controlling resonant tunneling current behavior in multi-

barrier structures. Because of the high resolution in the process control of verti-

cal dimensions down to 2 A monolayer uniformity, well-defined characteriza-

tion and experimental results are usually obtained for nanotransistor designs

based on vertical transport. However, the use of high-electron mobility 2 DEG

for lateral transport-based nanos tructures have also yielded some respectable

results, with added dimension of control by virtue of the ability to change

confinement potentials through the manipulation of gate voltages.

The different degree of fabrication control in lateral and vertical directions

has resulted in a dichotomy of advanced-electron-device research efforts. The

planar-IC community efforts tend to be lateral-quantum transport based and

utilize the transport of carriers in the lateral direction, whereas the second group

of researchers utilizes the quantum transport of carriers in the vertical direction,

across heterojunction interfaces. Indeed, band-gap engineering of materials

brought about by molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) and metal-organic chemical

vapors deposition (MOCVD) was immediately employed by the second group

to improve the performance of conventional bipolar and field-effect transistors,

yielding heterojunction transistors. The lack of abrupt confinement which re-

sists lateral scaling, in lateral transport using confining depletion layers, urgently

calls for some form of lateral heterojunction technology for nanostructures.

Indeed this is an active field of nanofabrication research and this technology is

vigorously being pursued (Ide, et al., 1988; Beaumont, 1989; Stormer, et al.,

1992). If this technology becomes viable, quantum dots with atomic-scale di-

mensions and stronger coupling can be realized.

Vertical Transport Nanotransistor Designs

The obvious approach to controlling the resonant-tunneling current behavior

in heterojunction double-barrier structure is to introduce a biasing charge in the

quantum well, thereby altering the self-consistent potential of the quantum well.

However, if the introduced electron charge occupies the same quantized energy

level as the current-carrying electrons then the base-collector leakage current

can become significant so as to short out the base and make transistor control

impossible, as can be seen from Fig. 2.

As in conventional bipolar transistor, one needs to distinguish the introduced

the emitter be equal to one of the discrete energy levels. This means that the gate voltage difference between the

(N + 1)th and Nth peaks is equal to (e/C) + energy-level spacing/e

180 FELIX A. BUOT

Isolation

Base Emitter

pre Ne

LCM Y-YWWVVIa

Collector

Fig. 2. [After Bate, 1989 with permission.] Unworkable unipolar RTT IC layout design. Section AA’ shows

tunneling behavior, however BB’ shows parasitic base current making transistor action impossible.

charge from the main current carrying charge between emitter and collector. A

way to do this is to somehow assign one energy level (e.g. ground level) in the

quantum well for the charge introduced (to change the self-consistent potential)

and the next excited energy level as the current-carrying channel between the

emitter and collector. It is also desirable to “hide” the ground level from both the

emitter and collector Fermi level, to completely eliminate leakage current.

These requirements are accomplished by using a quantum-well layer made up

of semiconductor material with a narrower band-gap than both the emitter and

collector material, as shown in Fig. 3. It should be emphasized that this design

results in a unipolar transistor, 1.e., current is carried only by one carrier, the

electrons.

A new set of problems is introduced when designing nanotransistors for

Isolation

Base Emitter

Wide Band Gap

| NZ

nar Lae Nike smn !

NTs Gap

Narrow Band Gap Collector

Fig. 3. [After Bate, 1989 with permission.] Workable unipolar RTT IC layout design which eliminates the

parasitic base current. Emitter-collector current channel is through the excited quantum-well state. Control

charge-carriers are supplied to the ground energy level by the base contact. and prevented from flowing to the

collector by the medium-band gap collector region.

te ae

NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY 181

Forward Biased

Junction

\ \ NV A

Yi" Wj Gane

Collector

Fig. 4. [After Bate, 1989 with permission.] Unworkable bipolar RTT IC layout design. The emitter-base

bias must be greater than the bandgap to achieve resonant tunneling. But contacting the holes in the quantum

well requires a region in the base that is p-doped. Unfortunately a p region in contact with n-type emitter

region subjected to forward biases greater than the bandgap would result in catastrophic parasitic current,

making transistor action impossible.

planar IC layout configuration compared to the discrete mesa-device design

configuration. These problems have recently been discussed by Bate (1989). A

heterojunction implementation of a quantum-based bipolar, two current-

carrier transistor, is to simply have the quantum-well layer p-doped, as shown in

Fig. 4. However, by inspection of the symmetry in the band-edge diagram of Fig.

4, the possibility of large emitter-base hole currents becomes immediately obvi-

ous, whenever there is a resonant emitter-collector electron current. The cata-

strophic parasitic current will degrade the current gain completely. This prob-

lem can be overcome by using a semiconductor material in the quantum well

with narrower band-gap than both the emitter and collector layer. In the trans-

port channel, it effectively “hides” the hole-energy level in the quantum well

from seeing the available states in both the emitter and collector, eliminating the

leakage currents. The above vertical transport design have been implemented at

TI (Bate, 1989; Texas Instrument Technical Journal, 1989), they have fabri-

cated a bipolar quantum resonant tunneling transistor (BiQuart), Fig. 5.

A different approach to nanotransistor designs is to interchange the base and

collector regions of the approach of Fig. 1, discussed earlier. In this new scheme,

the biasing charge is introduced on the other side of the wide barrier, mainly

creating electric field and affecting the self-consistent potential in the quantum

well, with the main current flow extracted by contacting the quantum well, 1.e.,

the quantum well becomes the collector region. In this design, the barriers are in

general highly asymmetrical, with the third barrier many times larger than the

two barriers, Fig. 6, to eliminate tunneling leakage current from the “base.”

Classified as a bipolar transistor this design has a negligible base current and

large current-transfer ratio. However, according to our classification since the

biasing charge is not directly introduced into the current channel but through

the capacitive control of the “base” electrode, this design can also be classified as

182 FELIX A. BUOT

Forward Biased

Junction

PSS

VUETOTIA:

OY 7

Medium :q'

Narrow Band Gap Collector Wide Band Gap

Fig. 5. [After Bate, 1989 with permission.] Workable bipolar RTT IC layout design, which eliminate p-n

junction catastrophic parasitic current. A narrow-bandgap quantum well sandwiched between wide-bandgap

barriers and medium bandgap emitter and collector regions allows for a reduced forward bias which does not

create catastrophic parasitic current across the p-n contact junction.

a field-effect nanotransistor. Because the quasistationary states in the well are

modulated by an electric field to produce transistor I-V characteristics, Bonne-

foi, et al. (1985) propose to call this design as a Stark-effect transistor (SET)

which was later experimentally demonstrated at AT&T Laboratories (Beltram,

Emitter

Alx,Gay -x,As(undopped)

electron energy

My Mm

fo) —~

<x < -

(a) (b)

Fig. 6. [Bonnefoi et al., 1985 reprinted with permission.] Workable unipolar field-effect RTT mesa design,

with the relative position of the base and collector being interchanged. Control is by means of the polarization

charge at the base electrode, therefore this design can be classified as a field-effect RTT. Thus the emitter

maybe called the source, the collector can be referred as the drain, and the base metalization as the gate.

NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY 183

Base

(a)

Collector

Emitter

Fig. 7. [Capasso, 1990 reprinted with permission.] Band diagram of multistate resonant tunneling bipolar

transistor (RTBT). (a) Design with graded emitter and abrupt double-barrier at the base (at resonance). (b)

RTBT with parabolic quantum well in the base. for equally spaced resonances. (c) RTBT with superlattice

base.

et al., 1988). One can also add a potential step in the quantum well using a

narrow band-gap thin layer similar to the TI approach to further decrease the

base-collector leakage current, to eliminate intervalley scattering and to en-

hance current drive.

A vigorous effort aimed at developing multistate resonant tunneling transis-

tors (Potter, et al., 1988), in discrete mesa-device design configurations, has been

undertaken at AT&T Bell Laboratories (Capasso, 1990). The earlier design is

based on the modification of abrupt emitter-base heterojunction (wide band-

gap emitter region) n-p-n heterojunction bipolar transistor by incorporating a

double barrier or a superlattice structure in the base region (Capasso & Kiehl,

- 1985). The device has a multivalued transfer characteristic, having as many

peaks as the number of resonances in the resonant tunneling structure in the

base, Fig. 7. These devices have been demonstrated for potential multivalued

logic applications (Capasso, et al., 1989).

Another multi-state resonant tunneling bipolar transistor (RTBT) pursued at

Bell Laboratories is based on the “‘cascaded”’ vertical integration of double-

barrier (DB) resonant tunneling diodes embedded in the emitter region (Ca-

passo, et al., 1988). An RTBT with a single DB in the emitter was first reported

by Futatsugi, et al. (1986). These DB’s are separated by heavily-doped cladding

layers to quantum mechanically decouple the adjacent DB’s from each other.

The band diagram is shown in Fig. 8. The idea is to obtain current peaks at the

same current level with similar peak-to-valley ratios, which naturally lead to

184 FELIX A. BUOT

Emitter Base Collector

-——_———— po pe

Fig. 8. [Capasso, et al., 1989 reprinted with permission.] Energy-band diagram of multiple state RTBT.

operating common-emitter transistor with a series of double-barrier (DB) structures in the emitter region. for

different base-emitter bias conditions. (a) Uniform voltage drop across each DB: in this condition the transis-

tor operates as in conventional bipolar transistor. (b) nonuniform voltage drop. and quenching of RT through

DB adjacent to p-n junction give rise to negative differential resistance in collector current vs. base-emitter

voltage VEB. The successive quenching of RT for the succeeding DB in the series away from the p-n function

produces multipeaks in collector current - emitter/base voltage characteristics.

designs using analogous resonance of a series of quantum wells. The operation

of multistate RTBT can be described as follows. Assume that collector-emitter

bias (V¢;) is kept fixed so as all DB’s are resonantly conducting, and let the

base-emitter bias (V,,) be increased. For V,, smaller than the p-n built-in volt-

age, most of the V,, is dropped across the emitter-base p-n junction. At this

point the device behaves as a conventional bipolar transistor, with the emitter-

collector current increasing with V,, until the base-emitter junction reaches a

flat-band condition. Beyond the flat-band condition, the impedance across p-n

becomes negligible, and the additional increase in Vz, is dropped across the

series of DB’s. Because of the screening effect of the cladding layers, quenching

of the resonant tunneling (RT) is initiated across the DB adjacent to the base and

anode regions. Once RT is suppressed across a DB its voltage drop across it

quickly increases with bias because of increased resistance, and a non-RT

current build-up provides the continuity for the RT current through other DB’s

operating in RT mode. As Vg, increases further, the high-field region widens

(i.e., needs more cladding layers to screen the field). Therefore, quenching of RT

sequentially propagates toward the cathode end and negative differential regions

are obtained in I-V characteristics corresponding to the quenching of RT

through each DB. Thus with n diodes embedded in the emitter region, n peaks

i\|

NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY 185

AfGaAs Xx =0.35

Substrate

ee ee

Fig. 9. [After Luryi & Capasso, 1985 with permission.] Unipolar surface resonant tunneling transistor and

energy-band diagram along the gated “‘surface” conduction channel. The thickness of the two undoped GaAs

layers outside of the double barrier region is sufficiently large to prevent parasitic resonant tunneling current in

the bulk.

are present in the I-V giving saw-tooth features. This was experimentally demon-

strated by Capasso, et al. (1989).

We note that except for the stark-effect transistors developed at Caltech, most

of the nanotransistor designs based on resonant tunneling phenomena are es-

sentially modification of conventional heterojunction bipolar transistors. A dif-

ferent approach based the modification of field-effect conventional heterojunc-

tion transistor (e.g., HEMT structure) has also been proposed at AT&T

Laboratories (Luryi & Capasso, 1985). The device consist of an epitaxially

grown undoped planar GaAs quantum well and a double AlGaAs barrier sand-

wiched between two undoped GaAs layers, the whole stack being further sand-

wiched between two heavily-doped GaAs layers for the source and drain con-

tact. The device area is produced by a V-groove etching which is subsequently

overgrown epitaxially with a thin AlGaAs layer, Fig. 9. Gate metalization resem-

bles that of the conventional HEMT structure. The fabrication technique and

structure was also proposed earlier by Sakaki (1980). The novel feature of the

proposed design is that tunneling transport occurs across a quantum “‘wire,”’ not

across a planar layer as in previous nanotransistors. The operation is as follows.

The application of positive gate voltage V,, induces 2-D electron gases (2DEG)

at the two interfaces on both sides of the double-barrier structures. These are

186 FELIX A. BUOT

polarized surface charges coming from the heavily-doped contact layers. Be-

cause of large zero-point energy and transverse energy-level spacing in the

“quantum wire,” there is a range of V, in which electrons are not yet induced in

the wire. Applications of drain voltage V, bring about resonant tunneling con-

dition where the transverse energy of electrons in the source matches the unoc-

cupied quantized transverse energy in the wire. The transport process is a tunnel-

ing between 2-D electrons to the 1-D density of states in the quantum wire.

Assuming conservation of longitudinal momentum k, and denoting the kinetic

energy due to the transport momentum along the direction kx at resonance as

E,, then the available k,-components contained within the Fermi level in the 2-D

source lie in the band of energies E, + E, < E < E,. Here E, is assumed to be the

zero point energy of the 2-D source. Therefore the number of tunneling elec-

trons grows with V, until E, = 0, where there is no more matching of the

electrons in the source with the quantized energy level in the wire. This situation

gives rise to negative differential resistance, similar to that of “planar” quan-

tum-well nanotransistors discussed before.

The present design, however, offers the possibility of transferring control, of

aligning the quantized energy level of the “wire” with respect to the band of

energies in the source, from V, to Vg. It has been demonstrated that the gate

potential is nearly as effective in lowering the quantized energy level of the

quantum wire with respect to the zero-point level in the source as is the drain

potential. This implies the very interesting possibility of achieving negative tran-

sconductance for a unipolar transistor. This kind of transistor can perform the

function of, and hence replace, a p-channel transistor in silicon CMOS logic,

resulting in a low-power inverter, in which current flows mainly during switch-

ing characteristic of CMOS logic. This feature should find important applica-

tions in GaAs ICs. |

Lateral Transport Nanotransistor Designs

The last transistor design discussed above may be considered to be based on

the combination of lateral transport and vertical transport. Vertical transport

since current flows across heterojunction layers, and lateral transport since

current flows along the surface of the V-grove etching. Whereas most vertical-

transport-based nanotransistor designs are essentially modifications of conven-

tional heterojunction bipolar transistors, all lateral-transport-based nanotran-

sistors designs, so far, are essentially modifications of unipolar or field-effect

conventional heterojunction transistors. Specifically, these devices are modifica-

tions of high-electron mobility transistors (HEMT) (Ismail, et al., 1991; Chou, et

al. 1991) and are field-effect-controlled heterojunction semiconductor struc-

tures. Lateral-transport-based nanotransistor designs make use of patterned

NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY 187

Transport Channel

Fig. 10. [After Sakaki, 1980 with permission.] Schematic cross section of a parallel single-channel quantum

wire array FET showing the gate metalization on the top layer.

multigates rather than a single gate found on a conventional HEMT structure

(Buot, 1987b). This is achieved in a manner similar to the one proposed earlier

by the author for MOSFET structures (Buot, 1987a). The longer coherence

length and mean free paths in 2DEG transport channel in HEMT structure

enables current lithographic techniques to fabricate lateral-transport-based

nanotransistors. Lateral-transport-based designs offer a latitude of design param-

eters defined by the shape and geometrical pattern of the gates. This feature

allows one to design nanotransistors whose function depend on the localization

of charge carriers in more than one dimension, such as the use of “quantum

wires” and “quantum dots,” where carrier scattering is further reduced due to

multi-dimensional size quantization, thus enhancing the coherence length and

low-field mobility.

It was estimated that quantum wires offer about two orders of magnitude

improvement in low field mobility, a significant higher saturation velocity and

longer coherence lengths compared to 2DEG (Sakaki, 1980). Thus an obvious

approach to further improvement of conventional field-effect high-speed de-

vices based on the HEMT structure is-to replace 2-DEG transport channel,

controlled by the gate, by an array of quantum wires, Fig. 10, say few hundreds

of parallel wires to maintain reasonable current drive capability (Sakaki, 1992).

Indeed, size quantization by itself has immediate applications to conventional

(i.e., nonquantum-transport-based) high-speed electronics and optoelectronic

devices. One can expect an even further improvement if the 2DEG transport

channel in HEMT is replaced by an array of coupled quantum dots, Fig. 11.

Because size quantization effects are expected to have immediate real impact

in optoelectronics, the optoelectronics community, indeed, has strong stake on

nanostructure research. Lateral device array designs are the preferred choice

188 FELIX A. BUOT

Gate

Fig. 11. Schematic cross section of quantum box array FET with top-layer gate.

since light can readily be coupled into lateral structures. The advantage of

abrupt confinement across heterojunction has lead to vertical device designs in

the form of a mesa device. The use of arrays of quantum wires and quantum

dots, providing confinement of injected carriers in the active region of laser

diodes has been shown to dramatically improve the lasing characteristics. In the

case of quantum-dot array active region, the temperature dependence of the

threshold current is virtually eliminated (Arakawa & Sakaki, 1982; Capasso, et

al., 1985). It was also shown theoretically that the electroabsorption and the

associated electrorefraction in array of quantum wires and quantum dots are

greatly enchanced over that of “planar” array of quantum wells by virtue of

multi dimensional quantum confinement Stark effect (1.e., bunching of quan-

tum states). Such enhanced effects would lead to electroabsorptive and electror-

efractive modulators and optical switches with even lower energy requirements

than existing quantum-well devices (Sakaki, et al., 1990). Another interesting

phenomena in optoelectronics is the so-called carrier-induced bleaching of opti-

cal absorption or the blue shift of absorption edge, primarily caused by band

filling that quenches both exciton and band-to-band absorption, in quantum-

wells arrays. The subsequent changes in refractive index (recall that refraction

index in photon transport is akin to electrostatic potential in electron transport)

have interesting applications, for example, it can be externally controlled by the

injection of carriers or by a voltage applied at the gate in field-effect or HEMT

configurations, where the 2DEG channel is replaced by the multi dimensionally

confined arrays, so as to construct optical modulators and optical bistable

switches (Sakaki, et al., 1990). Another example in the optoelectronics area 1s

the self-electrooptic effect (SEED) which may have important applications in

photonic switching (Miller, et al., 1984).

NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY 189

GaAs/AlGaAs MODFET-based Nanotransistors

Based on the modifications of the Schottky-barrier-gate structure of conven-

tional heterojunction HEMT (or MODFET) transistor, a number of lateral-

transport-based nanotransistors have been demonstrated (Ismail, et al., 1991;

Chou, et al. 1991). The various structural modifications are: (a) dual gate or

split-gate geometry, resulting in the so-called planar resonant-tunneling field-ef-

fect transistors (PRESTFET), (b) triple-gate geometry with independently con-

trolled middle gate, this has added features over (a) in that the quantum well

depth and barrier heights are controlled independently, (c) ““grating-gate’’ geom-

etry, which lead to induced array of quantum wires under the gate area, where

lateral transport is across the wires and Bragg interference in this direction

determines the overall transistor characteristics, and (d) “‘grid-gate” geometry,

which lead to induced array of quantum dots under the gate area; two-dimen-

sional Bragg interference (e.g., more bunching of states) determines the transis-

tor characteristics.

At fixed drain bias, Vyg, as the gate bias, Vs, 1s increased in quantum arrays,

there are essentially two correlated changes that happen, namely, (a) the quan-

tum-well depth increases resulting in “stronger” periodicity and consequent

larger negative-mass portion of the miniband, and (b) the electron concentra-

tion increases in each “‘unit cell” resulting in “‘filling”’ of the minibands. Thus as

Vos 1S increased in a continuous manner, the Fermi energy is expected to pass

through minibands and minigaps. Whenever the Fermi energy falls on the en-

ergy range of the minigap the current should drop to zero at T = 0. For T ~ 0,

due to spread of energies around E, of the mobile carriers, the current should

drop to a non zero minimum at low-enough temperatures. Note that the drain

bias, Vps, also creates a spread of energies along the transport channel propor-

tional to the electron “quasi-temperature” by virtue of electron heating by the

applied drain voltage. Also since the minigap widths decreases at higher ener-

_ gies, the current minimum should increase with Vs. This behavior is indeed

what is observed by the MIT group, with much enhanced effects for grid-gate

geometry (Ismail, et al., 1989). Thus the Bragg interference nanotransistors

exhibit gate-controlled negative resistance and negative transconductance.

Physical Modeling and Simulation

The characteristic of logic gates that must be served by nanodevices, and the

new regimes of operation compared to conventional devices, calls for a whole

new approach to analyzing charge carrier transport in small structures. Nanode-

190 FELIX A. BUOT

—o— FORWARD BIAS SWEEP

—-— BACKWARD BIAS SWEEP

LINEAR VOLTAGE DROP

CURRENT (10°A/cm?)

O10 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

BIAS (V)

Fig. 12. Simulated current-voltage characteristics of an RTD for increasing and decreasing voltage sweep.

Scattering and self-consistency of the potential is taken into account. The dotted curve shown for comparison,

do not account for self-consistency, i.., the voltage is linearly dropped across the undoped double-barrier

region. The self-consistent result, which agrees with experiments, is obtained by numerically solving a quan-

tum distribution function transport equation with a subsidiary boundary condition for RTD.

vice transport physics must incorporate all quantum effects by virtue of the

wave nature of the charge-carrier motion, all nonlinearities, all many-body ef-

fects, and all space and time-dependent nonuniformities. Indeed, device simula-

tion researchers are seriously turning to particle Monte Carlo (Salvino & Buot,

1992) and various quantum approaches (Hess et al., 1991, 1992) to develop new

computer-aided research and device characterization tools that will lead to

novel computer-aided design tools which the IC industry will need in the not so

distant future.

Presently, we can identify two major frontiers of research in nonlinear, far-

from equilibrium quantum transport physical modeling and simulation that

need to be addressed to enable the rapid development of nanoelectronics and

“nano” information-processing systems. Grouped in the order of their com-

plexity, these are as follows. The first is concerned with time-dependent, highly-

transient and highly nonlinear, far-from-equilibrium quantum transport prob-

lems in nanodevice physics. We believed that for one-dimensional systems,

these problems can be handled very well by the quantum distribution function

(QDF) approach with a subsidiary boundary condition (Buot & Jensen, 1990),

including band structure effects. Indeed, so far, this is the only approach that has

produced realistic results for the I-V, Fig. 12, time-dependent results for analyz-

ing high-speed operation of RTDs (Jensen & Buot 1991; Buot & Jensen 1991;

NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY 191

Buot & Rajagopal 1993) and has provided the complete transition from basic

quantum transport physics to an engineering computer aided design (CAD) tool

for ICs. However, for multidimensional systems of arbitrary geometry, and by

virtue of the limited capability of present-day supercomputers, we believed that

an area of research dealing with the coupling of the self-consistent ensemble

particle Monte Carlo (SEPMC) method, which is a very powerful and a proven

simulation tool for analyzing high-speed submicron devices, with a model of

causal particle trajectory representation (CPTR) of quantum transport (e.g.,

Wigner trajectory, Bohm Trajectory or a refined model quantum tunneling

particle dynamics (MQTPD) (Salvino & Buot 1992) can be a fruitful research

direction. This is also an area where the classical picture of quantum transport

will be fully developed, thus creating a much deeper understanding of some of

_the subtle aspects of quantum transport phenomena. The second is concerned

with the less CPU intensive steady-state, high-nonlinear, far-from-equilibrium

quantum transport problems in nano-device physics. Time independence wiil

result in several orders reduction in the computer simulation time. For one-di-

mensional problems, this can be handled conveniently by the QDF pure quan-

tum approach with a subsidiary boundary condition. For multidimensional

problems of arbitrary geometry, large-scale matrix solution for the nonequilib-

rium quantum correlation function G<(q,q’,E), where q and q’ represent lattice

coordinates, should prove to be a very powerful nonlinear quantum transport

technique for real solid-state nanodevices; this is an area where one can start

from the knowledge of atomic orbitals to account for surfaces, interfaces, multi-

valley scattering processes, interband tunneling dynamics (Ting et al., 1992) and

disorder effects in multidimensional finite systems where the energetics of the

charge carriers are not known a priori (Buot, 1992).

Advances in computational hardware and software are expected to alter the

current research and simulation capability issues, perhaps by bringing the situa-

. tion towards a purely quantum transport simulation of a fully time-dependent,

highly nonlinear, far-from-equilibrium multi-dimensional systems of “‘atomic-

orbital’ real solid-state materials with arbitrary geometries.

Conclusions

Quantum physics of small structures has evolved into a major field of con-

densed-matter physics in the last twenty years (Chang & Esaki 1992). Indeed,

mesoscopic physics and nanoelectronics have undergone a rapid development

in the 1980’s, and is expected to acquire more momentum as opportunities for

fundamental research and practical applications become more and more accessi-

192 FELIX A. BUOT

ble with the continued advancement in the fabrication of small structures to-

wards atomic sizes. Band-gap engineering of novel material systems, such as the

InAs/GaSb/AISb-based electronic materials, is currently a very active field of

research (Collins et al., 1991). “Vertical” heterojunction technology has clearly

reached the atomic size range and has allowed abrupt “‘atomic size” confine-

ment of electrons in solids. However, there is a strong need to confine electrons

in solids in more than one dimension. Quantum-based devices generally per-

form exceedingly well when the density of states per unit energy range is sharply

defined (Sakaki, 1992). Well-separated energy levels of electrons confined in all

directions virtually eliminate all scattering processes. Moreover, in resonant

tunneling devices for digital applications, the unwanted self-oscillations in the

NDR can be eliminated if the density of states is sharply defined (Buot & Jensen,

1991; Buot & Rajagopal 1993). To improve signal tolerance in binary. logic

applications, the ground state should be well-separated from the first excited

state and should be near the emitter Fermi level.

Confinement in more than one dimension is currently being implemented by

means of depletion barriers for digital applications, and by a “‘“mesa”’ device

design for optoelectronic and other applications. The inherent semiconductor

volume required by the depletion layers inherently prevents scaling the device

area for ultra-dense IC applications. Therefore, the development of abrupt he-

terojunction for device isolation and for lateral confinement would indeed set

another milestone comparable to the development of vertical heterojunction

MBE technology. Perhaps, developments in overgrowth techniques (Ide, et al.,

1988; Beaumont, 1989; Stormer, et al., 1992), advanced lithography and other

techniques using the principle of scanning tunneling microscope (Garcia, 1992;

Dobisz, et al., 1991; Marrian, et al., 1987; McCord & Pease, 1986) may offer the

needed giant step toward lateral heterojunction technology. Lateral and vertical

heterojunction capabilities would foster the rapid development of coupled

quantum-dot arrays and novel IC architectures. Moreover, the lateral and verti-

cal heterojunction capabilities are expected to encourage the fundamental study

and practical applications of condensed systems with small number of electrons,

defects and impurities, and thereby usher the rapid development of single elec-

tron quantum-coupled logic gates and ICs.

In closing, it’s worth pointing out that although the potential technological

impact of the study of nonlinear far-from-equilibrium quantum transport phe-

nomena in dynamical (high-speed) small systems is unprecedented, the present-

day worldwide efforts in this area are negligible compared to other mainstream

areas of transport research, such as the classical and near-equilibrium quantum

transport. This situation is expected to drastically change in the near future. The

road to nanoelectronic IC is a long-winding road; nanofabrication is certainly

NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY 193

one of its immediate greatest challenges. However, far more greater conceptual

challenges, novel computer architecture, complete characterization and under-

standing of quantum-based IC components, ingenious routing of interconnects,

partitioning of logic and processing blocks, and novel communication channels

to make use of the capabilities of nanofabrication. still lie ahead. There is no

doubt that computer-aided research and development, 1.e., the development of

software research tools, CAD and R&D tools, will serve the “intelligence” be-

hind the realization of a super computer on a chip.

Acknowledgments

The author would like to thank William Tolles for stimulating discussions,

Christie Marrian for critical reading of the manuscript, Gerry Borsuk and Marty

Peckerar for their interests in the topic of this review. This work is supported by

the Office of Naval Research, and the Naval Research Laboratory.

References

Anderson, P. W., Abrahams, E. & Ramakrishnan, T. V. (1979). Possible explanation of nonliner conductivity

in thin-film metal wires. Phys. Rev. Lett., 43:718-720.

Arakawa, Y. & Sakaki, H. (1982). Multidimensional quantum well laser and temperature dependence of its

threshold current. Appl. Phys. Lett., 40:939-941.

Ashoori, R. C. Stormer, H. L., Weiner, J. S., Pfeiffer, L. N., Pearton, S. J., Baldwin, K. W. & West, K. W.

(1992). Single-electron capacitance spectroscopy of discrete quantum levels. Phys. Rev. Lett., 68:3088-

3091.

Averin D. V. & Likharev, K. K. (1991). Single electronics: a correlated transfer of single electrons and Cooper

pairs in systems of small tunnel junctions. Jn B. L. Altshuler, P. A. Lee, & R. A. Webb (eds.), Mesoscopic

Phenomena In Solids (pp. 173-271). Elsevier Sci. Pub.: Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Bate, R. T. (1989). Nanoelectronics. Solid State Technology, 32:101-108.

Bate, R. T., Frazier, G., Frensley, F. & Reed, M. (1989). An overview of nanoelectronics. TJ Tech. Jour.,

6:13-120.

Beaumont, S. P. (1989). Fabrication and overgrowth of quantum wires and dots for optoelectronic applica-

tions. In M. A. Reed & W. P. wens (eds.), Nanostructure Physics and Fabrication, (pp. 77-88). Academic

Press: Boston, MA.

Beltram, F., Capasso, F., Luryi, S, Chu, S. N. G. & Cho, A. Y. (1988). Negative transconductance via gating of

the quantum well subbands in a resonant tunneling transistor. Appl. Phys. Lett., 53:219-221.

Bonnefoi, A. R., McGill, T. C. & Burnham, R. D. (1985). Uniformity in the electrical characteristics of

GaAs/AIAs tunnel structures grown by metal organic chemical vapor deposition. Appl. Phys. Lett., 47:307-

309.

Buot, F. A. (1986). Direct construction of path integrals in the lattice-space multiband dynamics of electrons in

a solid. Phys. Rev. A, 33:2544-2562.

Buot, F. A. (1987a). Theory of coupling of electronic systems: experimental structures using advanced litho-

graphic techniques. Stanford Electronics Lab. Report (1979), Published In Superlattices and Microstruc-

tures, 3:399-408.

Buot, F. A. (1987b). Two-dimensional numerical modelling of IIEMT using an energy transport model.

International Journal for Computational Mathematics in Electrical and Electronic Engineering, COMPEL

6:45-52.

Buot, F. A. (1992). Real-space tight-binding and discrete phase-space many-body quantum transport. Super-

lattices and Microstructures, 11:103-111.

Buot, F. A. (1993). Mesoscopic physics and nanoelectronics: nanoscience and nanotechnology. Phys. Reports,

234:73-174.

194 FELIX A. BUOT

Buot, F. A. & Jensen, K. L. (1990). Lattice Weyl-Wigner formulation of exact many-body quantum-transport

theory and applications to novel-state quantum-based devices. Phys. Rev. B, 42:9429-9457.

Buot, F. A. & Jensen, K. L. (1991). Intrinsic high-frequency oscillations and equivalent circuit model in the

negative differential resistance region of resonant tunneling devices. International Journal for Computa-

tional Mathematics in Electrical and Electronic Engineering, COMPEL 10:241-253.

Buot, F. A. & Rajagopal, A. K. (1993). High-frequency behavior of quantum-based devices: equivalent-circuit,

nonperturbative response and phase-space analyses. Phys. Rev. B, 48:17217-17232.

Buot, F. A., Scott, C., Mack, I. & Sleger, K. J. (1988). Fundamental physical limits of computation: rigid

coupling model, broken symmetry and self-induced transmission in a computer medium. Jn F. L. Carter,

R. E. Siatkowski, & H. Wohltjen (eds.), Molecular Electronic Devices (pp. 245-266). North Holland: Am-

sterdam, Netherlands.

Capasso, F. (1990) Physics of Quantum Electronic Devices, Springer-Verlag: Berlin, Germany.

Capasso, F. & Kiehl, R. A. (1985). Resonant tunneling transistor with quantum well base and high-energy

injection: a new negative differential resistance device. J. Appl. Phys., 58:1366-1368.

Capasso, F., Mohammed, K., Cho, A. Y., Hull, R. & Hutchinson, A. L. (1985). Effective mass filtering: giant

quantum amplification of the photocurrent in a semiconductor superlattice. Appl. Phys. Lett., 47:420-422.

Capasso, F., Sen, S., Beltram, F., Lunardi, L. M., Vengurlekar, A.S., Smith, P. R., Shah, N. J., Malik, R. J. &

Cho, A. Y. (1989). Quantum functional devices: resonant-tunneling transistors, circuits with reduced com-

plexity, and multiple-valued logic. IEEE Trans. Electron Devices, 36:2065—2082.

Capasso, F., Sen, S., Cho, A. Y. & Sivco, D. L. (1988). Multiple negative transconductance and differential

conductance in a bipolar transistor by sequential quenching of resonant tunneling. Appl. Phys. Lett.,

53:1056-1058.

Chang, L. L. & Esaki, L. (1992, Oct.). Semiconductor quantum heterostructures. Physics Today, 45:36-43.

Chang, L. L., Esaki, L. & Tsu, R. (1974). Resonant tunneling in semiconductor double barriers. Appl. Phys.

Lett., 24:593-595

Chou, S. Y., Allee, D. R., Pease, R. F. & Harris, J. S. Jr. (1991). Lateral resonant tunneling transistors

employing field-induced quantum wells and barriers. Proceed. JEEE., 79:1131 1139.

Collins, D. A., Chow, D. H., Yu, E. T., Ting, D. Z.-Y., Séderstrém, J. R., Rajakarunanayaaka,y., McGill, T. C.

& Watson, T. J. (1991). InAs/GaSb/AISb: The material system of choice for novel tunneling devices. Jn

L. L. Chang, E. E. Mendez, & C. Tejedor, (eds.), Resonant Tunneling in Semiconductors Physics and

Applications (pp. 515-528). Plenum Press: New York, NY.

Dobisz, E. A., Marrian, C. R. K. & Colton, R. J. (1991). High resolution electron beam lithography with a

polydiacetylene negative resist at 50 kV. J. Appl. Phys., 70:1793-1799.

Dolan, G. J. & Osheroff, D. D. (1979). Nonmetallic conduction in thin metal films at low temperatures. Phys.

Rev. Lett., 43:721-724.

Eaves, L., Sheard, F. W. & Toombs, G. A. (1990). The investigation of single and double barrier resonant

tunnelling heterostructures using high magnetic fields. Jn F. Capasso (ed.), Physics of Quantum Electron

Devices (pp. 107-146). Springer-Verlag: Berlin, Germany.

Futatsugi, T., Yamaguchi, Y., Ishii, K., Imamura, K., Muto, S., Yokoyama, N. & Shibatomi, A. (1986). A

resonant tunneling bipolar transistor (RBT): a proposal and demonstration for new functional device with

high current gain. In IEDM Technical Digest of the 1986 International Electron Devices Meeting. (pp.

286-296). IEEE: Piscataway, NJ.

Garcia, R. G. (1992). Atomic-scale manipulation in air with the scanning tunneling microscope. App. Phys.

Lett., 60:1960-1992.

Guéeret, P., Blanc, N., Germann, R. & Rothuizen, H. (1992). Confinement and single-electron tunneling in

Schottky-gated, laterally sequeezed double-barrier quantum-well heterostructures. Phys. Rev. Lett.,

68:1896-1899

Harmans, K. (1992, Mar.). Next electron, please... Physics World, 5:50-53.

Hess, K., Leburton, J. P. & Ravaioli, U. (1991). Computational Electronics, Kluwer Academic: New York,

NY.

Hess, K., Leburton, J. P. & Ravaioli, U. (1992). Proceedings of the International Workshop on Computational

Electronics. Beckman Institute-University of Illinois: Urbana-Champaign, II.

Hopfield, J. J. (1990). Dynamics and neural network computation. Jntl. J. Quantum Chemistry: Quantum

Chemistry Symposium, 24, 633.

Houten, H. van (1992). Coulomb blockade oscillations in semiconductor nanostructures. Surf. Sci., 263:442-

445.

Ide, Y., McDermott, B. T., Hashemi, M., Bedair, S. M. & Goodhue, W. D. (1988). Sidewall growth by atomic

layer epitaxy. Appl. Phys. Lett., 53:2314-2316.

Imamura, K., Takatsu, M., Mori, T., Adachihara, T., Ohnishi, H., Muto, S. & Yokoyama, N. (1992). A full

adder using resonant-tunneling hot electron transistors (RHET’s). [EEE Trans. Electron Devices, 39:2707-

2710.

NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY 195

Ismail, K. E., Bagwell, P. F., Orlando, T.P, Antoniadis, D. A. & Smith, H. I. (1991). Quantum phenomena in

field-effect-controlled semiconductor nanostructures. Proceed. IEEE., 79:1106-1116.

Ismail, K., Chu, W., Yen, A., Antoniadis, D. A. & Smith, H. I. (1989). Negative transconductance and negative

differential resistance in a grid-gated modulation-doped field-effect transistor. App/. Phys. Lett., 54:460-

462.

Jensen, K. L. & Buot, F. A. (1991). Numerical simulation of intrinsic bistability and high-frequancy current

oscillations in resonant tunneling structures. Phys. Rey. Lett., 66:1078-1081.

Kastner, M. A. (1992). The single-electron transistor. Rev. Mod. Phys., 64:849-858.

Krumhansl J. A. & Pao, Y. H. (1979, Nov.). Microscience: an overview. Physics Today, 32:25-32.

Landauer, R. (1989). Nanostructures physics: Fashion or depth? Jn M. A. Reed & W. P. Kirk (eds.), Nanostruc-

ture Physics and Fabrication (pp. 17-30). Academic: San Diego, CA.

Lent, C. S., Tougaw, P. D. & Porod, W. (1992). A bistable quantum cell for cellular automata. In, Proceedings

of the International Workshop on Computational Electronics (pp. 163-166). Beckman Institute-University

of Illinois: Urbana-Champaign, I].

Likharey, K. K. (1988). Correlated discrete transfer of single electrons in ultrasmall tunnel junctions. JBM J.

Res. Develop., 32:144-158.

Likharev, K. K., & Claeson, T. (1992, June). Single electronics. Scientific American, 266:80-85.

Luryi, S. & Capasso, F. (1985). Resonant tunneling of two-dimensional electrons through a quantum wire: a

negative transconductance device. Appl. Phys. Lett., 47:1347-1349.

’ Marrian, C. R. K., Colton, R. J., Snow, A. & Taylor, C. J. (1987). Lithography with scanning tunneling

microscopy. Mater. Res. Symp. Proc., 76:353.

McCord, M. A. & Pease, R. F. W. (1986). Lithography with the scanning tunneling microscopy. J. Vac. Sci.

Technol., B4:86-88.

McEuen, P. L., Foxman, E. B., Meirav, U., Kastner, M. A., Meir, Y., Wingreen, N.S. & Wind, S. J. (1991).

Transport spectroscopy of a Coulomb island in the quantum hall regime. Phys. Rev. Lett., 66:1926-1929.

Miller, D. A. B., Chemla, D. S., Damen, T. C., Gossard, A. C., Wiegman, W., Wood, T. H. & Burrus, C. A.

(1984). Novel hybrid optically bistable switch: The quantum well self-electro-optic effect device. Appl. Phys.

Lett., 45:13-15.

Potter, R. C., Lakhani, A. A., Beyea, D., Hier, H., Hempfling, E. & Fathimulla, A. (1988). Three-dimensional

integation of resonant tunneling structures for single processing and three-state logic Appl. Phys. Lett.,

-§2:2163-2164.

Physics Today, (1979 Oct.). Two-dimensional metals are not truly metallic. Physics Today, 32:17-18.

Sakaki, H. (1980). Scattering suppression and high-mobility effects in size-quantized electrons in ultrafine

semiconductor wire structures. Japan J. Appl. Phys., 19:L735.

Sakaki, H. (1992). Quantum wires, quantum boxes, and related structures: physics, device potentials and

structure requirements. Surf. Sci., 267:623.

Sakaki, H., Kato, K. & Yoshimura, H. (1990). Optical absorption and carrier-induced bleaching effect in

quantum wire and quantum box structures. Appl. Phys. Lett., 57:2800-2802.

Salvino R. E. & Buot, F. A. (1992).Self-consistent Monte Carlo particle transport with model quantum

tinneling dynamics: application to the intrinsic bistability of a symmetric double-barrier structure. J. Appl.

Phys., 72:5975-598 1.

Sollner, T. C. L. G., Tannenwald, P. E., Peck, D. D. & Goodhue, W. D. (1984). Quantum well oscillators. App.

Phys. Lett., 45:1319-1321.

Stormer, H. L., Pfeiffer, L. N., West, K. W. & Baldwin, K. W. (1992). Cleaved edge overgrowth: A route to

atomicially precies lower dimensional structures. In W. P. Kirk & M. A. Reed (eds.), Nanostructures and

Mesoscopic Systems (pp. 51--62). Academic Press: Boston, MA.

Su, B., Goldman, V. J. & Cunningham, J. E. (1992). Observation of single-electron charging in double-barrier

heterostructures. Science, 255:313-315. :

Takatsu, M., Imamura, K., Ohnishi, H., Mori, T., Adachihara, T., Muto, S. & Yokoyama, N. (1992). Logic

circuits using resonant-tunneling hot-electron transistors (RHET’s). IEEE J. Solid State Circuits, 27:1428-

1430.

Texas Instrument Technical Journal (1989). Nanoelectronics -defining new dimensions in electronics. TI

Tech. Jour., 6:1-161.

Ting, D. Z.-Y., Yu, E. T. & McGill, T. C. (1992). Multiband treatment of quantum transport in interband

tunnel devices. Phys. Rev. B, 45:3583-3592.

Tsu, R. & Esaki, L. (1973). Tunneling in a finite superlattice. Appl. Phys. Lett., 22:562-564.

Yamanaka, N., Sasaki, M., Kikuchi, S., Takada, T. & Idda, M. (1991). A gigabit-rate five-highway GaAs

OE-LSI chipset for high-speed optical interconnections between modules of VLSI’s. [EEE J. Selected Areas

in Commun., 9:689-697.

Yokayama, N., Imamura, K., Muto, S., Hiyamizu, S. & Nishi, H. (1985). A new functional, resonant-tun-

neling hot electron transistor (RHET). Japan J. Appl. Phys., 24:L853.

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences,

Volume 82, Number 4, Pages 196-202, December 1992

How Scientific is Survey Research?

A Comparison of Results of Surveys on the Same Topic

Walter E. Boek

College of Democracy Arlington, VA

The Washington Academy of Sciences 1992 Presidential Address

Presented May 13, 1992 :

ABSTRACT

In this paper, the issue of reliability of interview and questionnaire or polling survey

methods is discussed. Examples are noted demonstrating the variance among a number of

survey results and subsequent action. A direct comparison of findings from surveys of the

same universe of physicians about receiving and reading medical journals are cited which

indicate that results are directly related to factors such as survey sponsorship. It is suggested

that these questions be investigated before survey findings are accepted: Who sponsored the

survey? How was the sample selected? How complete was the response? How were the

queries worded? How was statistical testing done? What data preparation methods were

used? and How were the data interpreted?

The speaker was introduced by Academy Fellow,

Julius H. Prince

I have been given the very great pleasure and honor of introducing Dr. Walter

Boek to this audience tonight. And I’ve also had the distinct pleasure of being a

student under Professor Boek’s aegis when I was doing my doctoral work at

Harvard back in 1952. We have had a close and wonderful association ever

since.

Professor Boek was trained at Cornell University and at Michigan State Uni-

versity, where he got his doctorate. He then began to show his main characteris-

tic, as I see it, as a professional innovator. I can’t imagine anybody I know in the

whole field of health sciences who has been more innovative than he. I think he

must have read Frances Bacon, who 400 years ago said every medicine is an

innovation and he who will not prescribe new remedies must expect new evils.

So I think Walter has taken this lesson to heart. He started out in his research

career that way, not long after I got to the New York State Department of Health

in 1948, he was a cultural anthropologist full-time employee and advisor to the

196

HOW SCIENTIFIC IS SURVEY RESEARCH? 197

Commissioner, no less, of the State Department of Health in Social Science

Research—the first position of that type that I think was ever created in the

United States, much less probably anywhere else.

Dr. Boek did many wonderful things which, as far as I was concerned, was

epitomized by his help during the difficult time I had doing my doctoral disser-

tation. He taught me so many things about applied anthropology that I can’t

begin to say what they were or give you any details, but also in the book which he

wrote in 1956, with his capable and charming wife, Jean, he was one of the first

persons I ever recall talking about the relationship between the social conditions

in which patients with various health problems lived and the prognosis and

control of their illnesses. So with these brief introductory remarks, I give you my

good friend and colleague and tremendous scientist, Professor Walter E. Boek.

‘Thank you Dr. Prince for your kind remarks. Good evening members of the

Academy and friends. Some of us believe that one function of our Academy is to

foster science. In accord with this, my talk will focus on an activity that influ-

ences all of us, either directly or indirectly. Not only are we bombarded by

newspaper, radio and television reports of surveys, but our election process and

our legislators also are influenced by them. Having designed, carried out and

analyzed findings from at least 50 questionnaire or interview surveys that were

as scientifically correct as we could make them, it is utterly distasteful to me to

hear haphazard surveys touted as scientific, even to the extent of providing

percentage “degrees of error.’’ Statisticians have even gone to the extreme of

evolving formulas to compensate for their unreliable survey methods. With

these they seem to suggest that a complicated statistical formula could revive a

dead horse.

Some survey sponsors do not bother much to have reliable methods, as the

instructions for a United States Department of Agriculture food stamp program

attitude survey on which policy was to be based, stated: “. . .no amount of time

_ should be devoted to attempting a representable sample.” Another example that

involves both method and ethics is an American Management Association

(AMA) survey. Would you believe that an employee of that august organization

told us that when results of an AMA survey on which he worked were given to its

corporate sponsor, he requested the sample be increased to reduce the stated

margin of error. The AMA then waited a couple of weeks while it simply dupli-

cated the cards on which responses were coded. The new “results,” from their

standpoint, emphasized the accuracy of the initial survey, because they were

identical. For this duplication, the AMA received a substantial additional sum

from the sponsor who assumed that it was for the increased number of question-

naires requested.

Findings of pseudo-scientific, or non-scientific polling that goes on week after

198 WALTER E. BOEK

week reported in our media as facts might not be fed to the public by members of

the media if they understood science and/or followed a system of ethics that

emphasized honest reporting. The question of how they might be taught science

or ethics is not the subject of this talk, however.

Turning to political polling, have you ever wondered how a candidate can be

reported by pollsters as being favored by less than 10 percent of the people a day

or so before he or she receives more than 50 percent of the votes, as occurred a

couple of weeks ago in Pennsylvania? Or how President Bush is reported as

being in the 40 percentage range in the polling, but actually receives about 60

percent of the votes in a primary election? Some time ago I became especially

interested in this when President Harry Truman won a national election even

though almost all the media had reported that the people favored Tom Dewey. It

happened that we had conducted a carefully constructed sample of people,

Michigan residents, who had been interviewed just before the election. One

question concerned political preference. An analysis of responses, which we did

after the election produced results very close to the tally of votes in the actual

election, with Truman coming out on top. Thus, a survey conducted with scien-

tifically reliable methods produced valid data.

Of numerous other examples of survey fiascoes, I will mention two. Re-

member the Ford Edsel automobile financial disaster in which Columbia Uni-

versity surveyors concluded that a luxurious Ford car would be welcomed and

purchased by the public? As you know, that never happened.

In the second example, a survey company did a study of physicians for RCA

in which they concluded that a high proportion of doctors would subscribe to a

medical education program. After investing more than one million dollars in

setting this up, RCA found fewer than 20 physicians enrolled instead of the

thousands projected. }

The elaborate reports to the sponsors by survey organizations containing

results and recommendations that I have seen were beautiful to behold, but their

findings were dangerous to follow. While some of the survey designs were credit-

able, their execution suffered from insufficient knowledge of methods and poor

ethics at each level of the survey process. From our experience with interviewers,

we learned early on not to hire those who had worked on surveys for other

organizations, including the United States Census, if we wanted to collect valid

data. 7

Science, as you know, is not a body of knowledge but rather a systematic

method of seeking answers to questions involving relationships among vari-

ables. With surveys of populations being so popular that political candidates and

parties hire their own pollsters, consideration could be given to comparing re-

sults of different pollers to estimate validity of their findings. This is not very

HOW SCIENTIFIC IS SURVEY RESEARCH? 199

feasible, however, because they generally neither conduct them at the same time

nor cover the same universe. |

Polling is also popular with publishing companies who need to sell advertise-

ments in their magazines. If they can convince advertisers that a specified seg-

ment of the population obtains and reads their magazines, it becomes easy for

them to sell their advertising space. To supply the potential advertisers with

information about the readership of their publications, they pay substantial

sums to survey companies. These companies know that survey sponsors who

have medical magazines would be pleased to learn that more medical practi-

tioners receive and/or read the sponsors’ publication than receive or read others.

Surveys conducted for medical journals provide an unique opportunity to

make fairly direct comparisons of findings. Accordingly, a group of medical

journals for the same universe of United States physicians in the same time

frame for which surveys were completed can be compared. Although they were

made available for these analyses, they are proprietary reports.

In this article, just a few of the comparisons that were done are presented. In

Figure I, results of four surveys that reported how many physicians received

each of three journals are shown. The journals are those published for physicians

on a national level.

In Study I, shown by way of bar grafts, a large proportion said they received

Journal A. Fewer acknowledged receipt of Journal B, and many fewer Journal

C. There is a difference of 31 percent from the highest to the lowest journal.

As indicated in Figure 1, Study II reporting on the same three journals stated

that Journal C was received by the most physicians while Journal A was in

second place, with the number receiving Journal B between the other two jour-

nals.

Study III gives still another picture. In it Journal B was reported to have been

received by the most physicians and Journal A by very few. The last survey

illustrated in Figure 1, Study IV differs from the rest in still another way with all

- three journals being about equal.

A comparison of Studies I and II shows that Journal C was received by 42

percent more physicians than reported getting it in Study I. Studies I and III,

when compared, shows that 28 percent more said they received Journal B in

Study III than in Study I. For Journal A, the percentage reported as having

received it, dropped from a large majority in Study I to a small minority in Study

III.

Why is there this great difference in results among the four surveys that sought

an answer to the same question from a sample of the same universe? When

possible variables that might cause these wide differences were explored, it was

found that the reason for the variation from a high number to a low one between

200 WALTER E. BOEK

JOURNALS RECEIVED

YYy

Yyy

Yy YY

UA UT

STUDY | STUDY Il STUDY Ill STUDY IV

Fig. 1. Results of four independent studies of the same three journals, labeled A, B, and C, for the same

universe of United States physicians.

Studies I and III for Journal A seemed to be related to the type of questioning in

Study III. In that survey, Journals B and C were included in a list handed the

physicians by the interviewer as he asked: “Will you look at this list of medical

magazines and tell me which ones you get regularly or have regular access to?”

Journal A was not included on the list. Instead, before the interview was com-

pleted, physicians were asked: ““Now, are there any medical magazines not on

this list that you get regularly?’ Without the reminder—the journal’s name on

the list—most physicians did not remember Journal A. Potential advertisers

were not told this in the report, of course.

The importance of questions wording and how the words are perceived by the

interviewee, was demonstrated in an amusing experience that occurred as I was

interviewing near a small village in the upper peninsula of Michigan. To learn

what conveniences he had in his modest house, I asked a man a series of ques-

tions including this one: ““Do you have running water?” ““Oh yes, come with me

and I’ll show you.” He then led me around back of his house to see a nice little

brook in which the water tinkled merrily as it ran along. After that we changed

the question to: “Do you have water piped into your house.”

Returning to the medical journals, another hypothesis about the cause of the

wide variations among surveys of the same medical journals was explored. It

concerned possible effect on results of the source of financing for the surveys. To

determine whether or not there was any unconscious tendency for the special

interests of the sponsor to be favored the surveys were compared on that vari-

able. It was found that Study I, in Figure 1, was funded by an organization

HOW SCIENTIFIC IS SURVEY RESEARCH? 201

MEDICAL JOURNAL READERSHIP

REGULAR HAVE THEY READ

READING READ IT? REGULARY

STUDY | STUDY Il STUDY Ill

Fig. 2. Results of three independent studies of the same medical journals, labeled A, B, and C, for the same

universe of United States physicians.

interested in Journal A that was reported to have been received by more physi-

cians that the other two journals. For Study II the sponsor published Journal C,

the one said to have been received by the largest number of physicians. In Study

III, the publisher of Journal B, again the highest one, paid for the study. For

Study IV, in which the tally of physicians receiving all three journals was about

the same, the survey was done for a pharmaceutical house interested in evaluat-

ing journals in general. These four surveys, therefore, tended to support the

hypothesis that the source of funding did tend to influence the results.

Exposure to a new idea in an article, or to a product in an advertisement,

requires more than just for a medical practitioner to receive a journal. The

physician they want to influence must open the journal and see the advertise-

_ment. Thus, pollsters frequently ask the physician whether one or another jour-

nal is read.

Data about the readership of three journals is presented in Figure 2. In Study

I, the surveyors found that nearly 100 percent of the physicians their inter-

viewers talked with regularly read Journal A, somewhat fewer Journal B and still

fewer Journal C. For Study II, it was reported that only about one-half read

Journal A, while more read Journal B and still more Journal C. The pollsters

who did Study III, reported that only one out of six of the physicians they

contacted regularly read Journals A and B while about 75 percent read Jour-

nal C.

In an attempt to learn why these three surveys came up with quite different

findings, question wording and the funding sources were examined. First, as the

202 WALTER E. BOEK

question wording is indicated in Figure 2 under each study, the questions were

not quite identical among the studies. Regarding the funding source, it was

learned that Study I was sponsored by Journal A, that was reported to have more

physicians reading it regularly. Study II, with Journal C being read more than

the other two, had the publisher of Journal C as the sponsor. Study III, in which

Journal C was reported to have been read regularly by many more than the other

two journals, was paid for by someone who did not have any special interest in

any of the three journals.

Although, there is not time tonight to report other analyses about the distorted

or blurry pictures arrived at through surveys, you and I as consumers of polling

results should examine research designs before accepting or even bothering to

listen to findings. I suggest that it is essential to ask these questions:

@ Who sponsored the survey?

@ How was the sample selected?

@ What proportion of the sample selected actually was interviewed, or returned ques-

tionnaires?

How were the queries worded?

How was statistical testing done?

What data preparation methods were used?

How were the data interpreted?

Thank you very much for your kind attention. In a few minutes my term as

President of the Washington Academy of Sciences will be concluded. Thank

you all for tendering me this honor.

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences,

Volume 82, Number 4, Pages 203-206, December 1992

The Washington Academy of Sciences

Awards Program for Scientific

Achievement in 1992

C. R. Creveling

Laboratory of Bioorganic Chemistry

National Institutes of Health

Bethesda, MD 20982

One of the many ways by which The Washington Academy of Sciences con-

tributes to the growth and recognition of scientists in the Washington Metropoli-

tan area is through the awards program of the Academy. Each year the Academy

recognizes such persons for scientific endeavors of merit and distinction.

Awards are made for outstanding contributions in Mathematics and Computer

Sciences, Behavioral and Social Sciences, Engineering Sciences, Biological and

Physical Sciences. In addition the Academy makes an award designated as the

“Distinguished Career in Sciences Award” to recognize a person who has made

distinguished and life-long contributions to science.

The Academy in recognition of the primary responsibilities for the well being

of society is in the teaching of science to young persons. In keeping with this goal

the Academy presents the Leo Schubert Award for excellence for the teaching of

science in college and the Bernice Lamberton Award for excellence in the teach-

. ing of science in high school.

Those receiving awards are selected from those persons nominated by either

Academy members or the public, by panels of experts in each of the respective

fields. The selections of the Awards Committee are then presented for approval

by the Board of the Academy.

The Awards were presented on 13 May 1992 at a ceremony, held at the

Officers Club at Fort Lesley J. McNair, Washington DC.

Awards were presented to the following persons:

203

204 C. R. CREVELING

Distinguished Career in Science Dr. WOLFGANG L. WIESE

Behavioral and Social Science Drs. CONRAD TAEUBER and

CALVIN L. BEALE

Biological Science Dr. JOANNE M. JONES

Physical Science Dr. HASSAN EL KHADEM

Mathematics and Computer Science Dr. DANIEL B. CARR |

Engineering Science Prof. KYU YONG CHOI

Leo Schubert Award for the

Teaching of Science in College Dr. BARRY G. SILVERMAN

Bernice Lamberton Award for the

Teaching of Science in High

School Dr. W. ALLEN BARWICK

Distinguished Career in Science

DR. WOLFGANG L. WIESE was selected to receive the DISTINGUISHED

CAREER IN SCIENCE award for his national and international leadership in

the field of atomic physics and for his able direction of the Atomic Physics

Division of the National Institute for Standards and Technology. Dr. Wiese is

recognized by his sustained scholarly contributions to the study of high energy

physics. Dr. Wiese was nominated by Dr. WILLIAM OTT and Dr. WILLIAM

C. MARTIN of the National Institute for Standards and Technology.

Behavioral and Social Science

DR. CONRAD TAEUBER and DR. CALVIN L. BEALE were both selected

for the award in the BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES for their long

and distinguished careers in the development of demography as an applied and

academic discipline and for their contribution towards an understanding of

major demographic trends in the United States. Dr. Taeuber is a Senior Re-

search Scholar at the Center for Population Research. Dr. Beale is a senior

demographer with the United States Department of Agriculture. Both men are

nationally and internationally recognized for their contribution to the develop-

ment of demography as an applied and academic discipline. Not only has their

research served to move the field of demography forward, but a broad range of

researchers and policy makers recognize their achievements and methods to

understand the changing character of the demographic structure of both the

United States and the world. Drs. Taeuber and Beale were nominated by Dr.

CORALIE FARLEE.

1992 AWARDS FOR SCIENTIFIC ACHIEVEMENT 205

Biological Science

DR. JOANNE M. JONES was selected for the award in the BIOLOGICAL

SCIENCES for her outstanding and original studies in the molecular biology

and microbiology of transposon transference including her studies on the organi-

zation and structure of the transposon. Her contributions to our understanding

of bacterial adherence to mucosal surfaces as an important step in the under-

standing of bacterial colonization and infection. This interaction is complex and

is influenced by the ability of bacteria to adhere, the nature of epithelial cell

receptivity, and the concentration and time of exposure to specific carbohy-

drates. Her studies are particularly important with regard to the clinical therapy

of mucosal infections. Dr. Jones was nominated by DR. JAMES F. GOFF.

Physical Science

DR. HASSAN EL KHADEM, Isbell Professor of Chemistry at the American

University was selected for the award in the PHYSICAL SCIENCES for his

dedication to scholarship and his major contributions to carbohydrate chemis-

try. Dr. El Khadem has served as a member of the editorial board of Carbohy-

drate Chemistry and Chairman of the Carbohydrate Division of the American

Chemical Society. He is recognized in particular for his contributions to the

understanding of the formation, composition and reactions of phenylhydra-

zones, phenyl osazones, and osatriazoles. Dr. Khadem was nominated by DR.

NINA M. ROSCHER.

Mathematics and Computer Science

DR. DANIEL B. CARR of the George Mason University Center for Compu-

tational Statistics was selected to receive the award in MATHEMATICS AND

COMPUTER SCIENCES for his distinguished research in the development of

tools and methods for statistical graphics. Among his notable contributions are

the use of stereo plot, introduction of ray glyphs and other forms of glyphs,

particularly stereo ray-glyph plot, the introduction of skeletonizing for sum-

mary representation of data using erosion technique, and most recently the use

of binning techniques for representation of data density. This work is highly

important for its immediate implications as well as for its future impact and

visualization of scientific data. Dr. Carr’s methods have solved some long-

standing visualization problems. His techniques are generalizable and lead in

natural ways to the development of similar solutions in high dimensions. Dr.

206 C. R. CREVELING

Carr is also recognized for his outstanding service to the scientific community as

an organizer of professional activities in the area of statistical graphics and

statistical computation. Dr. Carr was nominated by Professor EDWARD J.

WEGMAN.

Engineering Science

PROF. KYU YONG CHOI was selected to receive the award in the ENGI-

NEERING SCIENCES for his innovative and theoretical studies in polymer

reaction engineering, for his demonstration of low molecular weight oligomers

in the first stages of polyester synthesis, for application of bifurcation analysis of

non-linear reactor dynamics, and for his modeling of industrial reactor dy-

namics of olefin polymerization. Professor Choi was nominated by JAMES W.

GENTRY.

Leo Schubert Award for the Teaching of Science in College

DR. BARRY G. SILVERMAN was selected to receive the LEO SCHUBERT

AWARD for the TEACHING SCIENCE in COLLEGE for his enthusiastic and

direct exposure of both Undergraduate and Graduate students in meaningful

and ongoing research projects and for his creative efforts to prepare students in

computer literacy and introduction to artificial intelligence tools in science. Dr.

Silverman is Professor of Engineering Management at the George Washington

University. Dr. Silverman was nominated by MARYLIN KRUPSAW.

Bernice Lamberton Award for Teaching of Science in High School

Dr. W. ALLEN BARWICK was selected to receive the BERNICE LAMBER-

TON AWARD for TEACHING of SCIENCE in HIGH SCHOOL for his inno-

vative and dedicated service to the teaching of Physics in High School and for his

creation of a climate promoting an enthusiastic interest in Science in High

School Students. Dr. Barwick is also recognized for his dedicated efforts in both

the Local Science Fair system and in the National Science Fair. Dr. Barwick

teaches physics at the Wilson High School in the District of Columbia. Dr.

Barwick was nominated by MARYLIN KRUPSAW.

Following the presentation of the awards the President of the Academy, Dr.

Walter E. Boek, gave the annual Presidential Address entitled, How Scientific is

Survey Research? A Comparison of the Results of Surveys on the Same Topic.

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences,

Volume 82, Number 4, Page 207, December 1992

1898

1899-10

1911

1913

1914

1915

1916

1917

1918

1919

1920

1921

1922

1923

1924

1925

1926

1927

1928

1929

1930

1931

1932

1933

1934

1935

1936

1937

1938

. 1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

1946

1947

1948

1949

1950

Past Presidents of the Washington Academy of Sciences

John R. Eastman

Charles D. Walcott

Frank W. Clarke

Frederick V. Coville

Otto H. Tittmann

David White

Robert S. Woodward

Leland O. Howard

William H. Holmes

Lyman J. Briggs

Frederick L. Ransome

Carl L. Alsberg

Alfred H. Brooks

William J. Humphreys

Thomas W. Vaughan

Arthur I. Day

Vernon Kellogg

George K. Burgess

Alexander Wetmore

Robert B. Sosman

Alex Hrdlicka

William Bowie

Nathan Cobb

Leason H. Adams

Robert F. Griggs

Louis B. Tuckerman

George W. McCoy

Oscar E. Meinzer

Charles Thom

Paul E. Howe

Charles E. Chambliss

Eugene C. Crittenden

Austin H. Clark

Harvey L. Curtis

Leland W. Parr

Clement L. Garner

John E. Graf

Hugh L. Dryden

Waldo L. Schmitt

Frederick D. Rossini

F. H. H. Roberts, Jr.

Francis B. Silsbee

1992-93 Stanley G. Leftwich

207

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1968-69

1969-70

1970-71

1971-72

1972-73

1973-74

1974-75

1975-76

1976-77

1977-78

1978-79

1979-80

1980-81

1981-82

1982-83

1983-84

1984-85

1985-86

1986-87

1987-88

1988-89

1989-90

1990-91

1991-92

Nathan R. Smith

Walter Ramberg

Frank M. Setzler

Francis M. Defandorf

Margaret Pittman

Ralph E. Gibson

William M. Rubey

Archibald T. McPherson

Frank L. Campbell

Lawrence A. Wood

Philip H. Abelson

Benjamin D. Van Evera

Francois N. Frenkiel

Leo Schubert

John K. Taylor

Heinz Specht

Malcolm Henderson

George W. Irving, Jr.

A. F. Forziati

Mary L. Robbins

Richard K. Cook

Grover C. Sherlin

Kurt H. Stern

George Abraham

Florence H. Forziati

Richard H. Foote

Mary H. Aldridge

Alfred Weissler

Marjorie R. Townsend

John G. Honig

James F. Goff

Jean K. Boek

Ralph I. Cole

John J. O'Hare

Simon W. Strauss

R. W. Manderscheid

James E. Spates

Robert H. McCracken

Armand B. Weiss

Walter E. Boek

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences,

Volume 82, Number 4, Pages 208-222, December 1992

1992 Washington Academy of Sciences Membership Directory

M = Member; F = Fellow; LF = Life Fellow; LM = Life Member; EM = Emeritus

Member; EF = Emeritus Fellow; NRF = Non-Resident Fellow.

ABDULNUR, SUHEIL F. (Dr) 5715 Glenwood Road, Bethesda, MD 20817 (F)

ABELSON, P.H. (Dr) 4244 50th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20016 (F)

ABRAHAM, GEORGE (Dr) 3107 Westover Drive, SE, Washington, DC 20020 (LF)

ABSOLON, KAREL B. (Dr) 11225 Huntover Drive, Rockville, MD 20852 (M)

ACHTER, MEYER R. (Dr) 417 Sth Street, SE, Washington, DC 20003 (EF)

ADAMS, ALAYNE A. (Dr) 8436 Rushing Creek Court, Springfield, VA 22153 (F)

ADAMS, CAROLINE L. (Dr) 242 N. Granada Street, Arlington, VA 22203 (EM) ‘

AFFRONTI, LEWIS F. (Dr) George Washington University School of Medicine, Microbiology, 2300

Eye Street, NW, Washington, DC 20037 (F)

ALDRIDGE, MARY H. (Dr) 7904 Hackamore Drive, Potomac, MD 20854-3825 (EF)

ALEXANDER, BENJAMIN H. (Dr) P.O. Box 41126, NE, Washington, DC 20018 (EF)

ALEXANDER, DONALD H. (Mr) 16912 Olde Mill Run, Derwood, MD 20855 (M)

ALICATA, J.E. (Dr) 1434 Punahou Street, #736, Honolulu, HI 96822 (EF)

ALLEN, J. FRANCES (Dr) P.O. Box 284, Roxbury, NY 12474 (NRF)

ANDRUS, EDWARD D. (Mr) 2497 Patricia Court, Falls Church, VA 22043 (M)

ARGAUER, ROBERT JOHN (Dr) 4208 Everett Street, Kensington, MD 20895 (F)

ARMANET, FRANCOIS (Dr) 4909 Elsmere Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20814 (F)

ARONSON, CASPER J. (Mr) 3401 Oberon Street, Kensington, MD 20895 (EM)

ARSEM, COLLINS (Mr) 10821 Admirals Way, Potomac, MD 20854 (M)

ARVESON, PAUL T. (Mr) 10205 Folk Street, Silver Spring, MD 20902 (F)

ARY, T.S. (Mr) 3301 North Nottingham Street, Arlington, VA 22207 (M)

AXELROD, JULIUS (Dr) LCB-M.H. IRP-NIMH, Room 3A15A, Bldg. 36, National Institute of Men-

tal Health, Bethesda, MD 20892 (EF)

AXILROD, BENJAMIN M. (Dr) 9216 Edgewood Drive, Gaithersburg, MD 20877 (EF)

BAILEY, CLIFTON R. (Dr) 6507 Divine Street, McLean, VA 22101 (LF)

BAKER, ARTHUR A. (Dr) 5201 Westwood Drive, Bethesda, MD 20816 (EF)

BAKER, LEONARD (Dr) 4924 Sentinel Drive, Bethesda, MD 20816

BALLARD, LOWELL D. (Mr) 7823 Mineral Springs Drive, Gaithersburg, MD 20877 (F)

BARBOUR, LARRY (Mr) Rural Route 1, Box 492, Great Meadows, NJ 07838 (M)

BARRETT, TERENCE WILLIAM (Dr) 1453 Beulah Road, Vienna, VA 22182 (M)

BARTFELD, CHARLES I. (Dr) 6007 Kirby Road, Bethesda, MD 20817 (M)

BARWICK, W. ALLEN (Dr) Department of Physics, Wilson High School, Washington, DC 20016 (F)

BATAVIA, ANDREW I. (Mr) 700 Seventh St., SW, Apt#813, Washington, DC 20024 (LF)

BAUMANN, ROBERT C. (Mr) 9308 Woodberry Street, Seabrook, MD 20706 (F)

BEACH, LOUIS A. (Dr) 1200 Waynewood Blvd., Alexandria, VA 22308 (F)

BEALE, CALVIN L. (Mr) 1960 Biltmore Street, NW, Washington, DC 20009 (F)

BECKER, EDWIN D. (Dr) Bldg. 2, Room 122, N.I.H., Bethesda, MD 20892 (F)

208

1992 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY 209

BECKMANN, ROBERT B. (Dr) 10218 Democracy Lane, Potomac, MD 20854 (F)

BEKEY, IVAN (Mr) 4624 Quarter Charge Drive, Annandale, VA 22003 (F)

BENDER, MAURICE (Dr) 16518 NE Second Place, Bellevue, WA 98008-4507 (EF)

BENESCH, WILLIAM M. (Dr) 4444 Linnean Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20008 (LF)

BENJAMIN, CHESTER R. (Dr) 315 Timberwood Avenue, Silver Spring, MD 20901 (EF)

BENNETT, JOHN A. (Mr) 7405 Denton Road, Bethesda, MD 20814 (F)

BENSON, WILLIAM M. (Dr) 636 Massachusetts Avenue, NE, Washington, DC 20002 (F)

BERGER, HENRY (Dr) 7135 Groveton Gardens Road, Alexandria, VA 22306 (M)

BERGMANN, OTTO (Dr) George Washington University, Department of Physics, Washington, DC

20052 (F)

BERKSON, HAROLD (Dr) 12001 Whippoorwill Lane, Rockville, MD 20852 (EM)

BERNARD, JESSIE (Dr) 4200 Cathedral Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20016 (F)

BERNSTEIN, BERNARD (Mr) 7420 Westlake Terr, Apt #608, Bethesda, MD 20817 (M)

BETTS, ALLEN W. (Mr) 2510 South Ivanhoe Place, Denver, CO 80222 (M)

BHAGAT, SATINDAR MOHAN (Prof) 112 Marine Terrace, Silver Spring, MD 20904 (F)

BICKLEY WILLIAM E. (Dr) 6516 Fortieth Ave, University Park, Hyattsville, MD 20782 (EF)

BISHOP, WILLIAM P (Dr) Desert Research Institute, P.O. Box 19040, Las Vegas, NV 89132-0040

(NRF)

BLACKMON, RICHARD F. (Mr) 2000 N. Adams St, Apt #102, Arlington, VA 22207 (M)

BLACKSTEN, HARRY RIC (Mr) 4413 North 18th Street, Arlington, VA 22207 (M)

BLANK, CHARLES A. (Dr) 255 Massachusetts Avenue, Apt. # 607, Boston, MA 02115 (NRF)

BLOCH, CAROLYN (Mrs) P.O. Box 1889, Rockville, MD 20849 (M)

BLUNT, ROBERT F. (Dr) 5411 Moorland Lane, Bethesda, MD 20814 (F)

BOEK, HEATHER (Dr) Corning Incorporated, SP-DV-2-1, Corning, NY 14831 (NRF)

BOEK, WALTER E. (Dr) 5011 Lowell Street, NW, Washington, DC 20016 (F)

BOEK, JEAN K. (Dr) National Graduate University, 1101 N. Highland St, Arlington, VA 22201 (LF)

BOGNER, MARILYN SUE (Dr) 9322 Friars Road, Bethesda, MD 20817 (LF)

BONEAU, C. ALAN (Dr) 6518 Ridge Drive, Bethesda, MD 20816-2636 (F)

BOURGEOIS, LOUIS D. (Dr) 8701 Bradmoor Drive, Bethesda, MD 20817 (EF)

BOURGEOIS, MARIE J. (Dr) 8701 Bradmoor Drive, Bethesda, MD 20817 (F)

BOWMAN, THOMAS E. (Dr) 13210 Magellan Avenue, Rockville, MD 20853 (F)

BOYD, WENDELL J. (Mr) 6307 Balfour Drive, Hyattsville, MD 20782 (M)

BRADSHAW, SARA L. (Ms) 5405 Duke Street, Apt # 312, Alexandria, VA 22304 (M)

BRANCATO, EMANUEL L. (Dr) 7370 Hallmark Road, Clarksville, MD 21029 (EF)

BRENNER, ABNER (Dr) 7204 Pomander Lane, Chevy Chase, MD 20815 (F)

BRIER, GLENN W. (Mr) 1729-North Harrison Street, Arlington, VA 22205 (LF)

-BRIMMER, ANDREW F. (Dr) 4910 32nd Street, NW, Washington, DC 20008 (EF)

BRISKMAN, ROBERT D. (Mr) 6728 Newbold Drive, Bethesda, MD 20817 (F)

BRITZ, STEVEN JOHN (Dr) USDA Climate Stress Lab, B-046A #BARC-W, Beltsville, MD 20705 (F)

BROADHURST, MARTIN G. (Dr) 116 Ridge Rd, Box 163, Washington Grove, MD 20880 (F)

BROWN, ERNESTO (Mr) 9810 Dairyton Court, Gaithersburg, MD 20879-1101 (M)

BROWN, ELISE A.B. (Dr. 6811 Nesbitt Place, McLean, VA 22101 (LF)

BRYAN, MILTON M. (Mr) 3322 North Glebe Road, Arlington, VA 22207 (M)

BUOT, FELIX A. (Dr) Code 6884 Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375

BURAS, EDMUND M., JR. (Mr) 824 Burnt Mills Ave, Silver Spring, MD 20901-1492 (EF)

BUTTERMORE, DONALD O. (Mr) 34 West Berkeley St, Uniontown, PA 15401-4241 (LF)

CAMPBELL, LOWELL E. (Mr) 14000 Pond View Road, Silver Spring, MD (F)

CANNON, EDWARD W. (Dr) 18023-134th Avenue, Sun City West, AZ 85375 (M)

CANTELO, WILLIAM W. (Dr) 11702 Wayneridge Street, Fulton, MD 20759 (F)

CARR, DANIEL B. (Dr) 9930 Rand Drive, Burke, VA 22015 (F)

210 1992 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY

CARROLL, WILLIAM R. (Dr) 4802 Broad Brook Drive, Bethesda, MD 20814 (EF)

CERRONI, MATTHEW J. (Mr) 12538 Browns Ferry Road, Herndon, VA 22070 (M)

CETINBAS, MEHMET A. (Mr) CTL/MAC Engineering, 8480 D Tyco Road, Vienna, VA 22182 (M)

CHAMBERS, RANDALL M. (Dr) 2704 Winstead Circle, Wichita, KS 67226 (NRF)

CHAPLIN, HARVEY R., JR. (Dr) 1561 Forest Villa Lane, McLean, VA 22101 (F)

CHAPMAN, ROBERT D. (Dr) 10976 Swansfield Road, Columbia, MD 21044 (F)

CHEEK, CONRAD H. (Dr) 4334 H. Street, SE, Washington, DC 20019 (F)

CHEZEM, CURTIS G. (Dr) 3378 Wisteria Street, Eugene, OR 97404 (EF)

CHI, MICHAEL (Dr) 201 International Drive, #631, Cape Canveral, FL 32920 (NRF)

CHOI, KYU YONG (Prof) Department of Chemistry Engineering, University of Maryland, College

Park, MD 20742 (F)

CHRISTIANSEN, MERYL N. (Dr) 610 T-Bird Drive, Front Royal, VA 22630 (NRF)

CLAIRE, CHARLES N. (Mr) 4403 14th Street, NW Apt #31, Washington, DC 20011 (EF)

CLARK, GEORGE E., JR. (Mr) 4022 Stafford Street, Arlington, VA 22207 (F)

CLEVEN, GALE W. (Dr) 2411 Old Forge Lane, #103, Las Vegas, NV 89121-1058 (EF)

CLINE, THOMAS LYTTON (Dr) 13708 Sherwood Forest Dr, Silver Spring, MD 20904 (F).

CLORE, GIDEON MARIUS (Dr) Lab of Chemical Physics, Bldg 9, Room 123 NIDDK, National

Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892 (F)

COATES, JOSEPH F. (Mr) 3738 Kanawha Street, NW Washington, DC 20015 (F)

COFFEY, TIMOTHY P. (Dr) Naval Research Laboratory, Code 1001, Washington, DC 20375-5000

(F)

COHEN, MICHAEL P. (Dr) 555 New Jersey Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20208-5654 (M)

COLE, RALPH I. (Mr) 3705 S. George Mason Dr, Apt #515 South, Falls Church, VA 22041 (F)

COLWELL, RITA R. (Dr) Maryland Biotechnology Inst. 1123 Microbiology Building, University of

Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (LF)

COMAS, JAMES (Dr) NIST, Bldg 255, Rm A-305 Bureau Dr, Gaithersburg, MD 20899 (F)

CONDELL, WILLIAM J., JR (Dr) 4511 Gretna Street, Bethesda, MD 20814 (F)

CONNELLY, EDWARD McD. (Mr) 1625 Autumnwood Drive, Reston, VA 22094 (F)

CONSTANDI, JOHN JOSEF (Dr) 110 North French Street, Alexandria, VA 22304 (M)

COOK, RICHARD K. (Dr) 4111 Bel Pre Road, Rockville, MD 20853 (F)

COOPER, KENNETH W. (Dr) 4497 Picacho Drive, Riverside, CA 92507-4873 (EF)

CORLISS, EDITH L.R. (Mrs) 2955 Albemarle Street, NW, Washington, DC 20008 (LF)

COSTRELL, LOUIS (Mr) 15115 Interlachen Drive, Apt #621, Silver Spring, MD 20906-5641 (F)

COTHERN, C. RICHARD (Dr) 4732 Merivale Road, Chevy Chase, MD 20815 (F)

CREVELING, CYRUS R. (Dr) 4516 Amherst Lane, Bethesda, MD 20814 (F)

CRUM, JOHN K. (Dr) 1155 16th Street, NW Washington, DC 20036 (F)

CULBERT, DOROTHY K. (Mrs) 6254 Seven Oaks Avenue, Baton Rouge, LA 70806 (EF)

CURRIE, CHARLES L., S.J. (Rev) Rector, Jesuit Community, St. Joseph’s University, 5600 City

Avenue, Philadelphia, PA 19131 (M)

D’ANTONIO, WILLIAM V. (Dr) 3701 Connecticut Ave, Apt. 818, Washington, DC 20008 (EF)

DAVIS, MARION MACLEAN (Dr) Crosslands, Apt. 100, Kennett Square, PA 19348 (LF)

DAVIS, ROBERT E. (Dr) 1793 Rochester Street, Crofton, MD 21114 (F)

DAVISON, MARGARET C. (Mrs) 2928 N. 26th Street, Arlington, VA 22207 (M)

DAVISSON, JAMES W. (Dr) 400 Cedar Ridge Road, Oxon Hill, MD 20745 (EF)

DELANEY, WAYNE R. (Mr) 602 Oak Street, Farmville, VA 23901-1118 (M)

DEAHL, KENNETH L. (Dr) USDA-ARS-BARC WEST, Beltsville, MD 20705 (F)

DEAL, GEORGE E. (Dr) 6245 Park Road, McLean, VA 22101 (F)

DEBERRY, MARIAN B. (Mrs) 3608 17th Street, NE, Washington, DC 20018 (EM)

DEDRICK, ROBERT L. (Dr) 1633 Warner Avenue, McLean, VA 22101 (F)

DEMING, W. EDWARDS (Dr) 4924 Butterworth Place, NW, Washington, DC 20016 (F)

1992 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY : 211

DEMUTH, HAL P. (Cdr) 118 Wolfe Street, Winchester, VA 22601 (NRF)

DESLATTES, RICHARD D., JR. (Dr) 610 Aster Blvd., Rockville, MD 20850 (F)

DEUTSCH, STANLEY (Dr) 7109 Laverock Lane, Bethesda, MD 20817 (EF)

DEVEY, GILBERT B. (Mr) 2801 New Mexico Ave, Unit 417, Washington, DC 20007 (M)

DICKSON, GEORGE (Mr) 415 Russell Avenue, Gaithersburg, MD 20877 (F)

DIMOCK, DAVID A. (Mr) 4291 Molesworth Terrace, Mt. Airy, MD 21771 (EM)

DOCTOR, NORMAN (Mr) 6 Tegner Court, Rockville, MD 20850 (F)

DOEPPNER, THOMAS W. (Col) 8323 Orange Court, Alexandria, VA 22309 (LF)

DONALDSON, EVA G. (Ms) 3941 Ames Street, NE, Washington, DC 20019 (F)

DONALDSON, JOHANNA B. (Mrs) 3020 North Edison Street, Arlington, VA 22207 (F)

DONNERT, HERMANN J. (Dr) 5217 Terra Hts. Drive, Manhattan, KS 66502 (NRF)

DOOLING, ROBERT J. (Dr) 4812 Mori Drive, Rockville, MD 20852 (F)

DOUGLAS, THOMAS B. (Dr) 3031 Sedgwick Street, NW, Washington, DC 20008 (EF)

DRAEGER, HAROLD R. (Dr) 1201 North 4th Street, Tucson, AZ 85705 (EF)

DUBEY, SATYA D. (Dr) 7712 Groton Road, West Bethesda, MD 20817 (EF)

DUFFEY, DICK (Dr) Chem-Nuclear Engineering Department, University of Maryland, College Park,

MD 20742 (LF)

DUKE, JAMES A. (Mr) 8210 Murphy Road, Fulton, MD 20759

DUNCOMBE, RAYNOR L. (Dr) 1804 Vance Circle, Austin, TX 78701 (NRF)

DUPONT, JOHN E. (Mr) P.O. Box 358, Newtown Square, PA 19073 (NRF)

DEWIT, RONALD (Dr) 11812 Tifton Drive, Rockville, MD 20854 (F)

ECKLIN, JOHN W. (Mr) 6143 K Edsall Road, Alexandria, VA 22304 (M)

EDINGER, STANLEY E. (Dr) 5901 Montrose Road, Apt. 404-N, Rockville, MD 20852 (F)

EDMUND, NORMAN W. (Mr) 407 NE 3rd Avenue, Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33301 (M)

EISENHART, CHURCHILL (Dr) 9629 Elrod Road, Kensington, MD 20895 (EF)

EISNER, MILTON P. (Dr) 1565 Hane Street, McLean, VA 22101-4439 (F)

EL KHADEM, HASSAN (Dr) Dept. of Chemistry, American University, Washington, DC 20016-

8014 (F)

EL-BISI, HAMED M. (Dr) 258 Bishops Forest Drive, Waltham, MA 02154 (M)

EMERSON, K.C. (Dr) 560 Boulder Drive, Sanibel, FL 33957 (EF)

ENDO, BURTON Y. (Dr) 1010 Jigger Court, Annapolis, MD 21401 (F)

ENTLEY, WILLIAM J. (Mr) 5707 Pamela Drive, Centreville, VA 22181 (F)

ESTRIN, NORMAN F. (Dr) BA 9109 Copenhaver Drive, Potomac, MD 20854 (M)

ETTER, PAUL C. (Mr) 16609 Bethayres Road, Rockville, MD 20855-2043 (F)

EWERS, JOHN C. (Mr) 4432 26th Road North, Arlington, VA 22207 (EF)

FALK, JAMES E. (Dr) 11201 Leatherwood Drive, Reston, VA 22091 (F)

FARLEE, CORALIE (Dr) 389 O Street, SW, Washington, DC 20024 (F)

FARMER, ROBERT F. (Dr) c/o Akzo Chem, | Livingstone Avenue, Dobbs Ferry, NY 10522-3401

(NRF)

FAULKNER, JOSEPH A. (Mr) 2 Bay Drive, Lewes, DE 19958 (NRF)

FAUST, WILLIAM R. (Dr) 5907 Walnut Street, Temple Hills, MD 20748-4843 (F)

FAY, ROBERT E. (Dr) 6425 Cygnet Drive, Alexandria, VA 22307 (F)

FEARN, JAMES E. 4446 Alabama Avenue, SE, Washington, DC 20019 (F)

FEINGOLD, S. NORMAN (Dr) 1511 K Street, NW, Suite 541, Washington, DC 20005 (F)

FERRELL, RICHARD A. (Dr) 6611 Wells Parkway, University Park, MD 20782 (F)

FINKELSTEIN, ROBERT (Mr) Robotic Technology, Inc. 10001 Crestleigh Lane, Potomac, MD

20854 (M)

FISHER, JOEL L. (Dr) 4033 Olley Lane, Fairfax, VA 22032 (M)

212 1992 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY

FLINN, DAVID R. (Dr) 9714 Wild Flower Circle, Tuscaloosa, AL 35405 (NRF)

FLORIN, ROLAND E. (Dr) 7407 Cedar Avenue, Takoma Park, MD 20912 (EF)

FLOURNOY, NANCY (Dr) 4712 Yuma Street, NW Washington, DC 20016-2048 (F)

FOCKLER, HERBERT H. (Mr) 10710 Lorain Avenue, Silver Spring, MD 20901 (M)

FONER, SAMUEL N. (Dr) 11500 Summit West Blvd, No. 15B, Temple Terr, FL 33617 (NRF)

FOOTE, RICHARD H. (Dr) HC 75, Box 166 L.O.W., Locust Grove, VA 22508 (NRF)

FORZIATI, ALPHONSE F. (Dr) 15525 Prince Fredrick Way, Silver Spring, MD 20906 (F)

FORZIATI, FLORENCE H. (Dr) 15525 Prince Fredrick Way, Silver Spring, MD 20906 (F)

FOURNIER, ROBERT O. (Dr) 108 Paloma Road, Portola Valley, CA 94028 (M)

FOX, WILLIAM B. (Dr) 1813 Edgehill Drive, Alexandria, VA 22307 (F)

FOX, DAVID W. (Dr) University of Minnesota, 136 Lind Hall, 207 Church Street, SE, Minneapolis,

MN 55455 (NRF)

FRANKLIN, JUDE E. (Dr) 7616 Carteret Road, Bethesda, MD 20817-2021 (F)

FREEMAN, ANDREW F. (Mr) 5012 33rd Street North, Arlington, VA 22207 (EM)

FRIEDMAN, MOSHE (Dr) 4511 Yuma Street, NW, Washington, DC 20016 (F)

FRIESS, SEYMOUR L. (Dr) 6522 Lone Oak Street, Bethesda, MD 20817 (F)

FRUSH, HARRIET L. (Dr) 4912 New Hampshire Ave, NW, Apt #104, Washington, DC 20011-4151

(M)

FURUKAWA, GEORGE T. (Dr) 1712 Evelyn Drive, Rockville, MD 20852 (F)

GAGE, WILLIAM W. (Dr) 10 Trafalgar Street, Rochester, NY 14619-1222 (NRF)

GALASSO, GEORGE F. (Dr) 636 Crocus Drive, Rockville, MD 20850 (F)

GALLER, SIDNEY R. (Dr) 6242 Woodcrest Avenue, Baltimore, MD 21209 (EF)

GANEFF, IWAN (Mr) 5944 W. Wrightwood Avenue, Chicago, IL 60639 (EM)

GARVIN, DAVID (Dr) 18700 Walker’s Choice, No. 807, Gaithersburg, MD 20879 (EF)

GAUNAURD, GUILLERMO C. (Dr) 4807 Macon Road, Rockville, MD 20852 (F)

GHAFFARI, ABOLGHASSEM (Dr) 7532 Royal Dominion Dr, West Bethesda, MD 20817 (LF)

GIST, LEWIS A. (Dr) 1336 Locust Road, NW, Washington, DC 20012 (EF)

GLASER, HAROLD (Dr) 1346 Bonita Street, Berkeley, CA 94709 (EF)

GLASGOW, AUGUSTUS R.., JR., (Dr) 4116 Hamilton Street, Hyattsville, MD 20781 (EF)

GLOVER, ROLFE E., III (Prof) 7006 Forest Hill Drive, Hyattsville, MD 20782 (F)

GLUCKMAN, ALBERT G. (Mr) 11235 Oakleaf Dr, No 1619, Silver Spring, MD 20901-1492 (F)

GLUCKSTERN, ROBERT L. (Dr) 10903 Wickshire Way, Rockville, MD 20852 (F)

GOESSMAN, ROBERT C. (Mr) 9357 Birchwood Court, Manassas, VA 22110 (M)

GOFF, JAMES F. (Dr) 3405 - 34th Place, NW Washington, DC 20016 (F)

GOLDEN, MORGAN A. (Dr) 9110 Drake Place, College Park, MD 20740 (F)

GOLUMBIC, CALVIN (Dr) 6000 Highboro Drive, Bethesda, MD 20817 (EM)

GONET, FRANK (Dr) 4007 N. Woodstock Street, Arlington, VA 22207-2943 (EF)

GOODE, ROBERT J. (Mr) 2402 Kegwood Lane, Bowie, MD 20715 (EF)

GORDON, RUTH E. (Dr) American Type Culture Collection, 12301 Parklawn Drive, Rockville, MD

20852 (EF)

GRAY, IRVING (Dr) 5450 Whitley Park Terrace, Apt. 802, Bethesda, MD 20814-2060 (F)

GREENOUGH M.L. (Mr) Greenough Data Assc, 616 Aster Blvd, Rockville, MD 20850 (F)

GRONENBORN, ANGELA M. (Dr) 5503 Lambert Road, Bethesda, MD 20814 (F)

GROSS, DONALD (Mr) 3530 North Rockingham Street, Arlington, VA 22213 (F)

GROSSLING, BERNARDO F. (Dr) 10903 Amherst Ave, # 241, Silver Spring, MD 20902 (F)

GRUNTFEST, IRVING (Dr) 140 Lake Carol Drive, West Palm Beach, FL 33411-2132 (EF)

HACSKAYLO, EDWARD (Dr) P.O. Box 189, Port Republic, MD 20676 (F)

HAENNI, EDWARD O. (Dr) 7907 Glenbrook Road, Bethesda, MD 20814-2403 (F)

1992 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY 213

HAGN, GEORGE H. (Mr) 4208 Sleepy Hollow Road, Annadale, VA 22003 (LF)

HAIG, FRANK R. SJ (Rev) Loyola College, 4501 North Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21210 (F)

HAINES, KENNETH A. (Mr) 900 N. Taylor Street, Arlington, VA 22203-1855 (F)

HALE, ALMA (Ms) 1920 N Street, NW, Suite 300, Washigton, DC 20036 (M)

HAMER, WALTER J. (Dr) 407 Russell Avenue, #305, Gaithersburg, MD 20877-2889 (EF)

HANEL, RUDOLPH A. (Dr) 31 Brinkwood Road, Brookeville, MD 20833 (EF)

HANFORD, WILLIAM E., JR., (Mr) 5613 Overlea Road, Bethesda, MD 20816 (M)

HANSEN, LOUIS S. (Dr) 1400 Geary Blvd., #1510, San Francisco, CA 94109-6570 (EF)

HARR, JAMES W. (Mr) 9503 Nordic Drive, Lanham, MD 20706 (M)

HARRINGTON, MARSHALL C. (Dr) 10450 Lottsford Road #2207, Mitcheville, MD 20721 (EF)

HARRINGTON, FRANCIS D. (Dr) 4600 Ocean Beach Blvd., Apt. 204, Cocoa Beach, FL 32931

(NRF)

HARTLEY, JANET W. (Dr) Bldg. 7, Room 302, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892

(F)

HARTMANN, GREGORY K. (Dr) 10701 Keswick St, Box 317, Garrett Park, MD 20896 (EF)

HARTZLER, MARY P. (Ms) 1250 S. Washington St, Apt. 203, Alexandria, VA 22314 (M)

HASKINS, CARYL P. (Dr) 1545 18th Street, NW, Suite 810, Washington, DC 20037 (EF)

HASS, GEORG H. (Dr) 7728 Lee Avenue, Alexandria, VA 22308-1003 (F)

HAUGE, SHARON K. (Dr) Math Department, UDC, 4250 Connecticut Ave., NW, Washington, DC

20008 (M)

HAUPTMAN, HERBERT (Dr) The Medical Foundation of Buffalo, 73 High Street, Buffalo, NY

14203-1196 (NRF)

HAYDEN, GEORGE A. (Dr) 1312 Juniper Street, NW, Washington, DC 20012 (EM)

HAYNES, ELIZABETH D. (Mrs) 4149 25th Street, North, Arlington, VA 22207 (M)

HEIFFER, MELVIN H. (Dr) 11107 Whisperwood Lane, Rockville, MD 20852 (F)

HERKENHAM, MILES (Dr) 11705 Cherry Grove Drive, Gaithersburg, MD 20878 (F)

HERMACH, FRANCIS L. (Mr) 2201 Colston Drive, #311, Silver Spring, MD 20910 (F)

HERMAN, ROBERT (Dr) 8434 Antero Drive, Austin, TX 78759 (EF)

HEYER, W. RONALD (Dr) Amphibian and Reptile, M.S. 162, Smithsonian, Washington, DC 20560

(F)

HIBBS, EUTHYMIA D. (Dr) 7302 Durbin Terrace, Bethesda, MD 20817 (M)

HILL, BRUCE F. (Dr) Mount Vernon College, 2100 Foxhall Road, NW, Washington, DC 20007 (F)

HILLABRANT, WALTER J. (Dr) 1927 38th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20007 (M)

HILSENRATH, JOSEPH (Mr) 9603 Brunett Avenue, Silver Spring, MD 20901 (F)

HOBBS, ROBERTS B. (Dr) 7715 Old Chester Road, Bethesda, MD 20817 (EF)

HOFFELD, J. TERRELL (Dr) 11307 Ashley Drive, Rockville, MD 20852-2403 (F)

HOGE, HAROLD J. (Dr) 65 Grove Street, Apt. 148, Wellesley, MA 02181 (EF)

HOLLINSHEAD, ARIEL (Dr) 3637 Van Ness St, NW, Washington, DC 20008-3130 (EF)

HOLSHOUSER, WILLIAM L. (Mr) P.O. Box 1475, Banner Elk, NC 28604 (NRF)

HONIG, JOHN G. (Dr) 7701 Glenmore Spring Way, Bethesda, MD 20817 (F)

HOOVER, LARRY A. (Mr) P.O. Box 491, Gastonia, NC 28053-0491 (M)

HOPP, THEODORE H. (Dr) 303 Kent Oaks Way, Gaithersburg, MD 20878-5617 (M)

HORNSTEIN, IRWIN (Dr) 5920 Byrn Mawr Road, College Park, MD 20740 (EF)

HOROWITZ, EMANUEL (Dr) 14100 Northgate Drive, Silver Spring, MD 20906 (F)

HOWARD, DARLENE V. (Dr) 10550 Mackall Road, St. Leonard, MD 20685 (F)

HOWARD, JAMES H., JR. (Dr) 10550 Mackall Road, St. Leonard, MD 20685 (F)

HOYT, JAMES A., JR. (Mr) 3717 Thoroughbred Lane, Owings Mills, MD 21117 (M)

HUDSON, COLIN M. (Dr) 143 S. Wildflower Road, Asheville, NC 28804 (EF)

HUHEFY, JAMES E. (Dr) 6909 Carleton Terrace, College Park, MD 20740 (LF)

HUMMEL, LANI S. (Ms) 9312 Fairhaven Avenue, Upper Marlboro, MD 20772 (M)

HUMMEL, JOHN N. (Mr) 200 Harry S. Truman Pkwy, 2nd Fl, Annapolis, MD 21401 (M)

214 1992 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY

HURDLE, BURTON G. (Dr) 6222 Berkley Road, Alexandria, VA 22307 (F)

HURTT, WOODLAND (Dr) 7302 Parkview Drive, Frederick, MD 21702 (M)

IKOSSI-ANASTASIOU, KIKI (Dr) 2245 College Drive, #200, Baton Rouge, LA 70808 (M)

IRVING, GEORGE W., JR (Dr) 4601 North Park Ave, Apt 613, Chevy Chase, MD 20815 (LF)

IRWIN, GEORGE R. (Dr) 7306 Edmonston Avenue, College Park, MD 20740 (F)

JACKSON, JO-ANNE A. (Dr) 14711 Myer Terrace, Rockville, MD 20853 (LF)

JACOX, MARILYN E. (Dr) 10203 Kindly Court, Gaithersburg, MD 20879 (F)

JAMES, HENRY M. (Mr) 6707 Norview Court, Springfield, VA 22152 (M)

JEN, CHIH K. (Dr) 10203 Lariston Lane, Silver Spring, MD 20903 (EF)

JENSEN, ARTHUR S. (Dr) 5602 Purlington Way, Baltimore, MD 21212 (LF)

JERNIGAN, ROBERT W. (Dr) 14805 Clavel Street, Rockville, MD 20853 (F)

JOHNSON, EDGAR M. (Dr) 5315 Renaissance Court, Burke, VA 22015 (LF)

JOHNSON, DANIEL P. (Dr) P.O. Box 359, Folly Beach, SC 29439 (EF)

JOHNSON, PHYLLIS T. (Dr) 4721 East Harbor Drive, Friday Harbor, WA 98250 (EF)

JONES, JOANNE M. (Dr) 13184 Larchdale Road, Apt. 13, Laurel, MD 20708 (F)

JONES, DANIEL B. (Mr) 11612 Toulone Drive, Potomac, MD 20854 (M)

JONES, HOWARD S., JR (Dr) 3001 Veazey Terr, NW Apt 1310, Washington, DC 20008 (LF)

JONG, SHUNG-CHANG (Dr) American Type Culture Collection, 12301 Parklawn Drive, Rockville,

MD 20852 (LF)

JORDAN, GARY BLAKE (Dr) 13392 Fallenleaf Road, Poway, CA 92064 (LM)

JOYCE, PRISCILLA G. (Ms) 605 N. Emerson Street, Arlington, VA 22203 (M)

KAISER, HANS E. (Dr) 433 Southwest Drive, Silver Spring, MD 20901 (M)

KANTOR, GIDEON (Dr) 10702 Kenilworth Avenue, Garrett Park, MD 20896-0553 (M)

KAPER, JACOBUS M. (Dr) 115 Hedgewood Drive, Greenbelt, MD 20770 (F)

KAPETANAKOS, C.A. (Dr) 4431 MacArthur Blvd., Washington, DC 20007 (F)

KARP, SHERMAN (Dr) 10205 Couselman Road, Potomac, MD 20854-5023 (F)

KARR, PHILLIP R. (Dr) 1200 Harbor CR N, Oceanside, CA 92054-1051 (EF)

KEISER, BERNHARD E. (Dr) 2046 Carrhill Road, Vienna, VA 22181 (F)

KESSLER, KARL G. (Dr) 5927 Anniston Road, Bethesda, MD 20817 (EF)

KIRK, KENNETH L. (Dr) National Institutes of Health, Building 8, Room B1A-02, Bethesda, MD

20892 (F)

KLEBANOFF, PHILIP S. (Dr) 6412 Tone Drive, Bethesda, MD 20817 (EF)

KLINGSBERG, CYRUS (Dr) 1318 Deerfield Drive, State College, PA 16803 (NRF)

KNOX, ARTHUR S. (Mr) 2006 Columbia Road, NW, Washington, DC 20009 (M)

KOPP, WALTER H. (Mr) 5040 Cliffhaven Drive, Annandale, VA 22003-4345 (M)

KROP, STEPHEN (Dr) 7908 Birnam Wood Drive, McLean, VA 22102 (EF)

KROWNE, CLIFFORD M. (Mr) 3810 Maryland Street, Alexandria, VA 22309 (F)

KRUGER, JEROME (Dr) 619 Warfield Drive, Rockville, MD 20850 (F)

KRUPSAW, MARYLIN (Mrs) 10208 Windsor View Drive, Potomac, MD 20854 (LF)

LANG, MARTHA E.C. (Mrs) 3133 Connecticut Avenue, NW Apt. 625, Kennedy-Warren, Washing-

ton, DC 20008 (EF)

LANG, TERESA C. (Ms) 3640 Dorshire Court, Pasadena, MD 21122-6469 (M)

LANG, SCOTT W. (Mr) 3640 Dorshire Court, Pasadena, MD 21122-6469 (M)

LAWSON, ROGER H. (Dr) 10613 Steamboat Landing, Columbia, MD 21044 (F)

LEE, RICHARD H. (Dr) 5 Angola by the Bay, Lewes, DE 19958 (EF)

LEFT WICH, STANLEY G. (Dr) 3909 Belle Rive Terrace, Alexandria, VA 22309 (LF)

1992 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY . 215

LEIBOWITZ, LAWRENCE M. (Dr) 3903 Laro Court, Fairfax, VA 22031 (F)

LEINER, ALAN L. (Mr) 850 Webster Street, Apt. 635, Palo Alto, CA 94301-2837 (EF)

LEJINS, PETER P. (Dr) 7114 Eversfield Dr, College Heights Estates, Hyattsville, MD 20782-1049 (F)

LENTZ, PAUL LEWIS (Dr) 5 Orange Court, Greenbelt, MD 20770 (EF)

LETTERI, THOMAS R. (Dr) 10705 Hunters Chase Lane, Damascus, MD 20872 (F)

LEVY, SAMUEL (Mr) 2279 Preisman Drive, Schenectady, NY 12309 (EF)

LEWIS, A.D. (Mr) 3476 Mt. Burnside Way, Woodbridge, VA 22192 (M)

LEY, HERBERT L. (Dr) 4816 Camelot Street, Rockville, MD 20853

LIBELO, LOUIS F. (Mr) 9413 Bulls Run Parkway, Bethesda, MD 20817 (LF)

LIEBLEIN, JULIUS (Dr) 1621 East Jefferson Street, Rockville, MD 20852 (EF)

LIEBOWITZ, HAROLD (Dr) George Washington University, 2021 K Street, NW, Room 710, Wash-

ington, DC 20052 (F)

LING, LEE (Mr) 1608 Belvoir Drive, Los Altos, CA 94024 (EF)

LINK, CONRAD B. (Dr) 6812 Pineway Street, Hyattsville, MD 20782-1157 (F)

LIST, ROBERT J. (Mr) 1123 Francis Hammond Parkway, Alexandria, VA 22302 (EF)

LOCKARD J. DAVID (Dr) University of Maryland, Botany Dept, College Park, MD 20742 (F)

LOEBENSTEIN, W.V. (Dr) 8501 Sundale Drive, Silver Spring, MD 20910 (LF)

LONG, BETTY JANE (Mrs) 416 Riverbend Road, Fort Washington, MD 20744 (F)

LOOMIS, TOM H.W. (Mr) 11502 Allview Drive, Beltsville, MD 20705 (M)

LUSTIG, ERNEST (Dr) Rossittenweg 10, D-3340 Wolfenbuttel, West Germany (EF)

LUTZ, ROBERT J. (Dr) 17620 Shamrock Drive, Olney, MD 20832 (F)

LYNN, JEFFERY W. (Prof) 13128 Jasmine Hill Terrace, Rockville, MD 20850 (F)

LYON, HARRY B. (Mr) 7722 Northdown Road, Alexandria, VA 22308-1329 (M)

LYONS, JOHN W. (Dr) 7430 Woodville Road, Mt. Airy, MD 21771 (F)

MACDONELL, MICHAEL T. (Dr) 3939 Ruffin Road, San Diego, CA 92123 (NRF)

MADDEN, ROBERT P. (Dr) National Institute of Standards and Technology, A-251 Physics Bldg.,

Gaithersburg, MD 20899 (F)

MALONE, THOMAS B. (Dr) 6633 Kennedy Lane, Falls Church, VA 22042 (F)

MANDERSCHEID, RONALD W. (Dr) 10837 Admirals Way, Potomac, MD 20854-1232 (LF)

MARTIN, ROY E. (Mr) National Fisheries Institute, 1525 Wilson Blvd., Suite 500, Arlington, VA

22209 (F)

MARTIN, P.E. EDWARD J. (Dr) 7721 Dew Drive, Derwood, MD 20855 (M)

MASON, HENRY LEA (Dr) 3440 S Jefferson St, #823, Falls Church, VA 22041-3127 (M)

MAYOR, JOHN R. (Dr) 3308 Solomons Court, Silver Spring, MD 20906 (F)

McCRACKEN, ROBERT H. (Mr) 5120 Newport Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20816 (LF)

MCKINSTRY, PATRICIA A. (Ms) 11671 Gilman Lane, Herndon, VA 22070-2420 (M)

MCcNESBY, JAMES R. (Dr) 13308 Valley Drive, Rockville, MD 20850 (EF)

McAVOY, THOMAS J. (Mr) 502 Burning Tree Drive, Arnold, MD 21012 (F)

McBRIDE, GORDON W. (Mr) 8100 Connecticut Avénue, Apt. 506, Chevy Chase, MD 20815-2813

(EF)

McKENZIE, LAWSON M. (Mr) 1719 North Troy, #394, Arlington, VA 22201 (F)

MEADE, BURFORD K. (Mr) 5903 Mt. Eagle Dr, Apt 404, Alexandria, VA 22303-2523 (F)

MEARS, FLORENCE M. (Dr) 8004 Hampden Lane, Bethesda, MD 20814 (EF)

MEARS, THOMAS W. (Mr) 2809 Hathaway Terrace, Wheaton, MD 20906 (F)

MEBS, RUSSELL W. (Dr) 6620 32nd Street, North, Arlington, VA 22213-1608 (F)

MELMED, ALLEN J. (Dr) 732 Tiffany Court, Gaitherburg, MD 20878 (F)

MENZER, ROBERT E. (Dr) 90 Highpoint Drive, Gulf Breeze, FL 32561-4014 (NRF)

MESSINA, CARLA G. (Mrs) 9800 Marquette Drive, Bethesda, MD 20817 (F)

MILLER, LANCE A. (Dr) P.O. Box 58 Snickersville Pike, Middleburg, VA 22117 (F)

MILLER, CARL F. (Dr) P.O. Box 127, Gretna, VA 24557 (EF)

216 1992 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY

MITTLEMAN, DON (Dr) 80 Parkwood Lane, Oberlin, OH 44074-1434 (EF)

MIZELL, LOUIS R. (Mr) 8122 Misty Oaks Blvd., Sarasota, FL 34243 (EF)

MOLDOVER, MICHAEL R. (Dr) 1518 Baylor Avenue, Rockville, MD 20850 (F)

MOLNAR, JOSEPH A. (Mr) 5054 Head Court, Fairfax, VA 22032 (M)

MORRIS, J. ANTHONY (Dr) 23E Ridge Road, Greenbelt, MD 20770 (M)

MORRIS, P.E., ALAN (Dr) 5817 Plainview Road, Bethesda, MD 20817 (F)

MORSE, ROBERT A. (Mr) St. Albans School, Washington, DC 20016 (M)

MOSTOFI, F.K. (MD)7001 Georgia Street, Chevy Chase, MD 20815 (F)

MOUNTAIN, RAYMOND D. (Dr) 5 Monument Court, Rockville, MD 20850 (F)

MUESEBECK, CARL F.W. (Mr) 18 North Main Street, Elba, NY 14058 (EF)

MULLIGAN, JAMES H., JR., (Dr) 12121 Sky Lane, Santa Ana, CA 92705 (NRF)

MUMMA, MICHAEL J. (Dr) 210 Glen Oban Drive, Arnold, MD 21012 (F)

MURDAY, JAMES S. (Dr) 7116 Red Horse Tavern Lane, West Springfield, VA 22153 (M)

MURDOCH, WALLACE P. (Dr) 65 Magaw Avenue, Carlisle, PA 17013-7618 (EF)

NAESER, CHARLES R. (Dr) 6654 Van Winkle Drive, Falls Church, VA 22044 (EF)

NAMIAS, JEROME (Dr) Scripps Inst of Oceanography, A-024, La Jolla, CA 92093 (NRF) ;

NEF, EVELYN S. (Mrs) 2726 N Street, NW, Washington, DC 20007 (M)

NEUBAUER, WERNER G. (Dr) 4603 Quarter Charge Drive, Annandale, VA 22003 (F)

NEUENDORFFER, J.A. (Dr) 911 Allison Street, Alexandria, VA 22302 (EF)

NEUPERT, WERNER M. (Dr) Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 680, N.A.SA., Greenbelt, MD

20771 (F)

NEWMAN, MORRIS (Dr) 1050 Las Alturas Road, Santa Barbara, CA 93103 (NRF)

NOFFSINGER, TERRELL L. (Dr) 5785 Bowling Green Road, Auburn, KY 42206 (EF)

NORENBURG, JON L. (Dr) 1440 Q Street, NW, Washington, DC 20009 (F)

NORRIS, KARL H. (Mr) 11204 Montgomery Road, Beltsville, MD (EF)

NYSTROM, ERIC O. (Mr) 10422 Cliff Mills Road, Marshall, VA 22115-2201 (M)

O’CONNOR, JAMES V. (Mr) 10108 Haywood Circle, Silver Spring, MD 20902 (M)

O’HARE, JOHN J. (Dr) 4601 O’Connor Court, Irving, TX 75062 (EF)

O’HERN, ELIZABETH M. (Dr) 633 G Street, SW, Washington, DC 20024 (EF)

O’KEEFE, JOHN A. (Dr) Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 681 N.A.S.A., Greenbelt, MD 20771 (F)

OBERLE, E. MARILYN (Ms) 58 Parklawn Road, West Roxbury, MA 02132 (M)

OEHSER, PAUL H. (Mr) 9601 Southbrook Dr, #220 S, Jacksonville, FL 32256 (EF)

OKABE, HIDEO (Dr) 6700 Stage Road, Rockville, MD 20852 (F)

OLIPHANT, MALCOLM W. (Dr) 1606 Ulupii Street, Kailua, HI 96734 (EF)

OLIPHANT V. F. SUSIE (Dr) 910 Luray Place, Hyattsville, MD 20783 (M)

ORDWAY, FRED (Dr) 5205 Elsmere Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20814-5732 (F)

OSER, HANS J. (Dr) 8810 Quiet Stream Court, Potomac, MD 20854-4231 (F)

OSTAFF, WILLIAM ALLEN (Mr) 10208 Drumm Ave, Kensington, MD 20895-3731 (EM)

PANCELLA, JOHN R. (Dr) 1209 Veirs Mill Road, Rockville, MD 20851 (F)

PARASURAMAN, RAJA (Dr) Catholic University, Dept of Psychology, Washington, DC 20064 (F)

PARMAN, GEORGE K. (Mr) 4255 Donald Street, Eugene, OR 97405 (EF)

PARSONS, HENRY McILVAINE (Dr) Human Resources Research Organization, 66 Canal Center

Plaza, Alexandria, VA 22314 (F)

PAZ, ELVIRA L. (Dr) 172 Cook Hill Road, Wallingford, CT 06492 (NRF)

PELCZAR, MICHAEL J. (Dr) Avalon Farm, P.O. Box 133, Chester, MD 21619 (EF)

PERKINS, LOUIS R. (Mr) 1234 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Apt 709, Washington, DC 20005 (M)

PERROS, THEODORE P. (Dr) 5825 3rd Place, NW, Washington, DC 20011 (F)

1992 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY 217

PICKETT, WARREN E. (Dr) Naval Research Lab, Code 4692, Washginton, DC 20375-0001 (M)

PICKHOLTZ, RAYMOND L. (Dr) 3613 Glenbrook Road, Fairfax, VA 22031-3210 (F)

PIEPER, GEORGE F. (Dr) 3155 Rolling Road, Edgewater, MD 21037 (EF)

PIKL, JOSEF M. (Dr) 122 Hancock Street, Cambridge, MA 02139-2206 (EF)

PITTMAN, MARGARET (Dr) 3133 Connecticut Ave, NW, Apt 912, Washington, DC 20008 (EF)

PLAIT, ALAN O. (Mr) 5402 Yorkshire Street, Kings Park, Springfield, VA 22151 (EF)

PLANT, ANNE L. (Dr) 619 South Woodstock Street, Arlington, VA 22204 (M)

POLACHEK, HARRY (Dr) 11801 Rockville Pike, Apt. 1211, Rockville, MD 20852 (EF)

PONNAMPERUMA, CYRIL (Dr) Department of Chemistry, University of Maryland, College Park,

MD 20742 (F)

POST, MILDRED A. (Miss) 8928 Bradmoore Drive, Bethesda, MD 20817 (F)

POWELL, JAMES STANTON (Mr) 7873 Godolphin Drive, Springfield, VA 22153-3308 (M)

PRINCE, JULIUS S. (Dr) 7103 Pinehurst Parkway, Chevy Chase, MD 20815 (F)

PRINZ, DIANNE K. (Dr) 1704 Mason Hill Drive, Alexandria, VA 22307 (F)

PRO, MAYNARD J. (Mr) 7904 Falstaff Road, McLean, VA 22102 (EF)

PROCTOR, JOHN H. (Dr) 308 East Street, NE, Vienna, VA 22180 (F)

PRYOR, C. NICHOLAS (Dr) 3715 Prosperity Avenue, Fairfax, VA 22031 (F)

PURCELL, ROBERT H. (Dr) 17517 White Grounds Road, Boyds, MD 20841 (F)

PYKE, THOMAS N. JR., (Mr) NOAA, FB #4, Room 2069, Washington, DC 20233 (F)

QUIROZ, RODERICK S. (Mr) 4520 Yuma Street, NW, Washington, DC 20016 (F)

RABINOW, JACOB (Mr) 6920 Selkirk Drive, Bethesda, MD 20817 (M)

RADER, CHARLES A. (Mr) Gillette Research Institute, 401 Professional Drive, Gaithersburg, MD

20879 (F)

RADO, GEORGE T. (Dr) 818 Carrie Court, McLean, VA 22101 (F)

RAMAKER, DAVID E. (Dr) 6943 Essex Avenue, Springfield, VA 22150 (F)

RAMSAY, MAYNARD J. (Dr) 3806 Viser Court, Bowie, MD 20715 (F)

RANSOM, JAMES R. (Mr) 107 E. Susquehanna Avenue, Towson, MD 21204 (M)

RAUSCH, ROBERT L. (Dr) P.O. Box 85477, University Station, Seattle, WA 98145-1447 (NRF)

RAVITSKY, CHARLES (Mr) 1505 Drexel Street, Takoma Park, MD 20912 (EF)

REDISH, EDWARD F. (Prof) 6820 Winterberry Lane, Bethesda, MD 20817 (F)

REED, WILLIAM DOYLE (Mr) 1330 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Thomas House, Apt. 624, Wash-

ington, DC 20005 (EF)

REHDER, HARALD A. (Dr) 3900 Watson Pl, NW, Apt 2G-B, Washington, DC 20016 (F)

‘REINER, ALVIN (Mr) 11243 Bybee Street, Silver Spring, MD 20902 (F)

RESWICK, JAMES S. (Dr) 1003 Dead Run Drive, McLean, VA 22101 (F)

RHYNE, JAMES J. (Dr) 2704 Westbrook Way, Columbia, MO 65203 (NRF)

RICE, ROBERT L. (Mr) 15504 Fellowship Way, North Potomac, MD 20878 (M)

RICE, SUE ANN (Dr) 6728 Fern Lane, Annadale, VA 22003 (M)

RIEL, GORDEN K. (Dr) Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division, Code R41, White Oak,

Silver Spring, MD 20903-5000 (LF)

RITT, PAUL E. (Dr) 36 Sylvan Lane, Weston, MA 02193 (NRF)

ROBBINS, MARY LOUISE (Dr) Tatsuno House A-23, 2-1-8 Ogikubo, Suginami-Ku, Tokyo 167

Japan (EF)

ROBERTSON, A.F. (DR) 4228 Butterworth Place, NW, Washington, DC 20016 (EF)

ROBERTSON, EUGENE C. (Dr) 922 National Center, USGS, Reston, VA 22092 (M)

ROBERTSON, RANDAL M. (Dr) 1404 Highland Circle, SE, Blacksburg, VA 24060 (EF)

ROBSON, CLAYTON W. (Mr) 13307 Warburton Drive, Fort Washington, MD 20744 (M)

RODNEY, WILLIAM S. (Dr) Georgetown University, Physics Dept, Washington, DC 20057 (F)

218 1992 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY

ROE, DONALD W. (Dr) 1072 Conestoga Est, Harpers Ferry, WV 25425 (M)

ROSCHER, NINA M. (Dr) 10400 Hunter Ridge Drive, Oakton, VA 22124 (F)

ROSE, WILLIAM K. (Dr) 10916 Picasso Lane, Potomac, MD 20854 (F)

ROSENBLATT; DAVID (Dr) 2939 Van Ness St, NW, Apt 702, Washington, DC 20008 (F)

ROSENBLATT, JOAN (Dr) 2939 Van Ness St, NW, Apt 702, Washington, DC 20008 (F)

ROSENFELD, AZRIEL (Dr) 847 Loxford Terrace, Silver Spring, MD 20901 (F)

ROSSI, PETER H. (Prof) 34 Stagecoach Road, Amherst, MA 01002 (NRF)

ROTHMAN, RICHARD B. (Dr) 1510 Flora Court, Silver Spring, MD 20910 (F)

ROTKIN, ISRAEL (Mr) 11504 Regnid Drive, Wheaton, MD 20902 (EF)

RUBLE, BRUCE L. (Mr) 4200 Davenport Street, NW, Washington, DC 20016 (M)

RUTNER, EMILE (Dr) 34 Columbia Avenue, Takoma Park, MD 20912 (M)

SAAD, ADNAN A. (Dr) 9602 Burnt Oak Drive, Fairfax Station, VA 22035 (M)

SAENZ, ALBERT W. (Dr) 6338 Old Town Court, Alexandria, VA 22307 (F)

SALVINO, ROBERT E. (Dr) 4329 Thistlewood Terrace, Burtonsville, MD 20866 (M) y

SANDERSON, JOHN A. (Dr) B-206 Clemson Downs, 150 Downs Blvd, Clemson, SC 29631 (EF)

SANK, VICTOR J. (Dr) 5 Bunker Court, Rockville, MD 20854-5507 (F)

SASMOR, ROBERT M (Dr) 4408 North 20th Road, Arlington, VA 22207 (F)

SAVILLE, THORNDIKE JR., (Mr) 5601 Albia Road, Bethesda, MD 20816 (LF)

SCHACHNER, STEPHEN H. (Dr) 7 Coners Medical Building, 6305 Castle Place, No. 3-A, Falls

Church, VA 22044 (F)

SCHALK, JAMES M. (Dr) P.O. Box 441, Isle of Palms, SC 29451 (NRF)

SCHINDLER, ALBERT I. (Dr) 6615 Sulky Lane, Rockville, MD 20852 (F)

SCHLAIN, DAVID (Dr) 2A Gardenway, Greenbelt, MD 20770 (EF)

SCHMEIDLER, NEIL F. (Mr) 7218 Hadlow Drive, Springfield, VA 22152 (M)

SCHMIDT, CLAUDE H. (Dr) 1827 North 3rd Street, Frago, ND 58102-2335 (EF)

SCHNEIDER, JEFFREY M. (Dr) 5238 Richardson Drive, Fairfax, VA 22032 (F)

SCHNEIDER, SIDNEY (Mr) 239 N. Granada Street, Arlington, VA 22203 (EM)

SCHNEPFE, MARIAN M. (Dr) Potomac Towers, Apt. 640, 2001 N. Adams Street, Arlington, VA

22201 (EF)

SCHOOLEY, JAMES F. (Dr) 13700 Darnestown Road, Gaithersburg, MD 20878 (EF)

SCHUBAUER, GALEN B. (Dr) 10450 Lotsford Rd, Unit 1211, Mitchellville, MD 20721 (F)

SCHULMAN, JAMES H. (Dr) 4615 North Park Ave, #1519, Chevy Chase, MD 20815 (EF)

SCHULTZ, WARREN W. (Dr) 4056 Cadle Creek Road, Edgewater, MD 21037 (LF)

SCOTT, DAVID B. (Dr) 10448 Wheatridge Drive, Sun City, AZ 85373 (EF)

SCRIBNER, BOURDON F. (Mr) 123 Peppercorn Place, Edgewater, MD 21037 (EF)

SEABORG, GLENN T. (Dr) 1154 Glen Road, Lafayette, CA 94549 (NRF)

SEITZ, FREDERICK (Dr) Rockefeller University, 1230 York Ave, New York, NY 10021 (NRF)

SHAFRIN, ELAINE G. (Mrs) 800 4th Street, No. N702, Washington, DC 20024 (F)

SHAPIRO, GUSTAVE (Mr) 3704 Munsey Street, Silver Spring, MD 20906 (F)

SHEAR, RALPH E. (Mr) 1916 Bayberry Road, Edgewood, MD 21040 (M)

SHEPARD, HAROLD H. (Dr) 2701 South June Street, Arlington, VA 22202-2252 (EF)

SHERESHEFSKY, J. LEON (Dr) 4530 Connecticut Ave, NW, Washington, DC 20008 (EF)

SHERLIN, GROVER C. (Mr) 4024 Hamilton Street, Hyattsville, MD 20781 (LF)

SHIER, DOUGLAS R. (Dr) 416 Westminster Dr, Pendleston, SC 29670 (NRF)

SHOTLAND, EDWIN L. (Dr) 418 E. Indian Spring Dr, Silver Spring, MD 20901 (M)

SHRIER, STEFAN (Dr) 624A South Pitt Street, Alexandria, VA 22314-4138 (F)

SHROPSHIRE, W., JR. (Dr) Omega, P.O. Box 189, Cabin John, MD 20818-0189 (M)

SILLS, CHARLES F. (Mr) 1200 N. Nash Street, Apt. 552, Arlington, VA 22209 (F)

SILVER, DAVID M. (Dr) Applied Physics Lab, 1110 John Hopkins Rd, Laurel, MD 20723 (M)

1992 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY 219

SILVERMAN, BARRY G. (Dr) George Washington University, 2021 K Street, NW, Suite 710, Wash-

ington, DC 20006 (F)

SIMHA, ROBERT (Dr) Case-Western Reserve University, Department of Macromoclecular Science,

Cleveland, OH 44106-7202 (NRF)

SIMPSON, MICHAEL M. (Dr) 5400 Glenallen Street, Springfield, VA 22151 (LM)

SINDEN, STEVEN LEE (Dr) 35-K Ridge Road, Greenbelt, MD 20770 (F)

SLACK, LEWIS (Dr) 27 Meadow Bank Road, Old Greenwich, CT 06870 (EF)

SLAWSKY, ZAKA I. (Dr) 4701 Willard Avenue, Apt. 318, Chevy Chase, MD 20815 (EF)

SLAWSKY, MILTON M. (Dr) 8803 Lanier Drive, Silver Spring, MD 20910 (EF)

SMITH, EDWARD L. (Mr) 11027 Earlgate Lane, Rockville, MD 20852 (F)

SMITH, LLOYD MARK (Dr) 11110 Forest Edge Drive, Reston, VA 22090 (F)

SMITH, MARCIA S. (Ms) 6015 N. Ninth Street, Arlington, VA 22205 (LM)

SMITH, REGINALD C. (Mr) 7731 Tauxemont Road, Alexandria, VA 22308

SMITH, BLANCHARD D., JR. (Mr) 2509 Ryegate Lane, Alexandria, VA 22308 (F)

SNYDER, HERBERT H. (Dr) P.O. Box 1494, Tappahannock, VA 22560 (NRF)

SODERBERG, DAVID L. (Mr) 403 West Side Dr, Apt 102, Gaithersburg, MD 20878 (M)

SOLAND, RICHARD M. (Dr) George Washington Unv, SEAS, Washington, DC 20052 (LF)

SOLOMON, EDWIN M. (Mr) 3330 N. Leisure World Blvd, Apt 222, Silver Spring, MD 20906 (M)

SOMMER, HELMUT (Dr) 9502 Hollins Court, Bethesda, MD 20817 (EF)

SORROWS, HOWARD E. (Dr) 8820 Maxwell Drive, Potomac, MD 20854 (F)

SOUSA, ROBERT J. (Dr) 56 Wendell Road, Shutesbury, MA 01072 (NRF)

SPATES, JAMES E. (Mr) 8609 Irvington Ave, Bethesda, MD 20817 (LF)

SPECHT, HENIZ (Dr) Fairhaven, C-135, 7200 3rd Ave, Sykesville, MD 21784 (EF)

SPERLING, FREDERICK (Dr) 5902 Mt. Eagle Drive, #407, Alexandria, VA 22303 (F)

SPIES, JOSEPH R. (Dr) 507 North Monroe Street, Arlington, VA 22201 (EF)

SPILHAUS, A.F., JR. (Dr) Rt. 50, Aspenhill, P.O. Box 1063, Middleburg, VA 22117 (F)

SPRAGUE, GEORGE F. (Dr) 2212 South Lynn Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (EF)

STANLEY, WILLIAM (Mr) 10494 Graeloch Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (M)

STEGUN, IRENE A. (Ms) 62 Leighton Avenue, Yonkers, NY 10705 (NRF)

STERN, KURT H. (Dr) 103 Grant Avenue, Takoma Park, MD 20912-4636 (F)

STEWART, T. DALE (Dr) 1191 Crest Lane, McLean, VA 22101 (EF)

STIEF, LOUIS J. (Dr) N.A.S.A. Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Code 691 Greenbelt, MD 20771 (F)

STIEHLER, ROBERT D. (Dr) 3234 Quesada Street, NW, Washington, DC 20015-1663 (F)

STILL, JOSEPH W. (Dr) 1408 Edgecliff Lane, Pasadena, CA 91107 (EF)

STOETZEL, MANYA B. (Dr) Systematic Entomology Lab, Rm 6, Bldg. 004, Barc-West, Beltsville,

MD 20705 (F)

HOWE. LARRY Tu. (Dr) NOAA NESDIS WWB-RM 711, Washington, DC 20233 (F)

STRAUSS, SIMON W. (Dr) 4506 Cedell Place, Camp Springs, MD 20748 (LF)

SVOBODA, JAMES A. (Mr) 13301 Overbrook Lane, Bowie, MD 20715 (M)

SWEZEY, ROBERT W. (Dr) Clarks Ridge Rd, Route 3, Box 142, Leesburg, VA 22075 (F)

SYKES, ALAN O. (Dr) 304 Mashie Drive, Vienna, VA 22180 (M)

TAEUBER, CONRAD (Dr) Mary E. Hunt Residence, 10 Allds St, Apt #150, Nashua, NH 03060

(NRF)

TASAKI, ICHIJI (Dr) 5604 Alta Vista Road, Bethesda, MD 20817 (F)

TATE, DOUGLAS R. (Mr) Carolina Meadows Villa #257, Chapel Hill, NC 27514-8526 (NRF)

TAYLOR, LURISTON S. (Dr) 10450 Lottford Rd, #3011, Mitchelville, MD 20721-2734 (EF)

TAYLOR, BARRY N. (Dr) 11908 Tallwood Court, Potomac, MD 20854 (F)

TAYLOR, WILLIAM DOUGLAS (Mr) 7025 Quander Road, Alexandria, VA 22309 (M)

TAYLOR, WILLIAM B. (Mr) 4001 Bell Rive Terrace, Alexandria, VA 22309 (M)

TEAL, GORDON K. (Dr) 5222 Park Lane, Dallas, TX 75220 (NRF)

220 1992 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY

TERMAN, MAURICE J. (Mr) 616 Popular Drive, Falls Church, VA 22046 (EM)

THOMPSON, F. CHRISTIAN (Dr) 4255 South 35th Street, Arlington, VA 22206 (LF)

TOLL, JOHN S. (Dr) Univeristy Research Assn, 1111 19th St, NW, Washington, DC 20036

TOUSEY, RICHARD (Dr) 10450 Lottsford Road, #231, Bowie, MD 20721-2742 (EF)

TOUSIMIS A.J. (Dr) Tousimis Research Corp, 2211 Lewis Ave, Rockville, MD 20851 (M)

TOWNSEND, CHARLES E. (Dr) 3529 Tilden Street, NW, Washington, DC 20008-3194 (F)

TOWNSEND, LEWIS R. (Dr) 8906 Liberty Lane, Potomac, MD 20854 (M)

TOWNSEND, MARJORIE R. (Mrs) 3529 Tilden St, NW, Washington, DC 20008-3194 (LF)

TRAUB, ROBERT (Col. Ret) 5702 Bradley Boulevard, Bethesda, MD 20814 (EF)

TUNELL, GEORGE (Dr) 300 Hot Springs Rd, #124, Montecito, CA 93108 (EF)

TURNER, JAMES H. (Dr) 509 South Pinehurst Ave, Salisbury, MD 21801-6122 (EF)

TYLER, PAUL E. (Dr) 1023 Rocky Point Ct., Albuquerque, NM 87123 (NRF)

UBERALL, HERBERT (Dr) 5101 River Road, Apt. 1417, Bethesda, MD 20816 (F)

UTLANER, J.E. (Dr) 4258 Bonavita Drive, Encino, CA 91436 (EF)

UTZ, JOHN P. (Dr) Georgetown University Medical Center, 3900 Reservoir Road, NW, Washington,

DC 20007 (F)

VAISHNAV, MARIANNE P. (Ms) P.O. Box 2129, Gaithersburg, MD 20879 (LF)

VAN COTT, HAROLD P. (Dr) 8300 Still Spring Court, Bethesda, MD 20817 (F)

VAN DERSAL, EVA P. (Dr) 8101 Greenspring Avenue, Baltimore, MD 21208-1908 (M)

VAN TUYL, ANDREW (Dr) 1000 W. Nolcrest Drive, Silver Spring, MD 20903 (F)

VAN VOORHEES, DAVID A. (Dr) KCA Research, Inc., 5501 Cherokee Ave, Suite 111, Alexandria,

VA 22312 (M)

VANARSDEL, WILLIAM C., III (Dr) 1000 Sixth St, SW, Apt 301, Washington, DC 20024 (M)

VARADI, Peter F (Dr) Apt. 1605-W, 4620 North Park Ave, Chevy Chase, MD 20815 (F)

VEITCH, FLETCHER P., JR (Dr) P.O. Box 513, Lexington Park, MD 20653 (NRF)

VENKATESHAN, C.N. (Dr) P.O. Box 30219, Bethesda, MD 20824 (M)

VILA, GEORGE J. (Mr) 5517 Westbard Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20816 (F)

VON ARB, CHRISTOP (Dr) Embassy of Switzerland, 2900 Cathedral Avenue, NW, Washington, DC

20008

VON HIPPEL, ARTHUR (Dr) 265 Glen Road, Weston, MA 02193 (EF)

WAGNER, A. JAMES (Mr) 7568 Cloud Court, Springfield, VA 22153 (F)

WALDMANN, THOMAS A. (Dr) 3910 Rickover Road, Silver Spring, MD 20902 (F)

WALKER, CHRISTOPHER W. (Dr) Lake Road, Box 2087, Middleburg, VA 22117 (M)

WALTON, WILLIAM W., SR (Dr) 1705 Edgewater Parkway, Silver Spring, MD 20903 (F)

WARING, JOHN A. (Dr) 1320 S. George Mason Drive, Apt 1, Arlington, VA 22204 (M)

WATERWORTH, HOWARD E. (Dr) 10001 Old Franklin Ave, Seabrook, MD 20706 (F)

WATSON, ROBERT B. (Dr) 1176 Wimbledon Drive, McLean, VA 22101 (EM)

WAYNANT, RONALD W. (Dr) 13101 Claxton Drive, Laurel, MD 20708 (F)

WEBB, RALPH E. (Dr) 21-P Ridge Road, Greenbelt, MD 20770 (F)

WEGMAN, EDWARD J. (Dr) George Mason University, 157 Science-Technology II, Ctr Computa-

tional Stat, Fairfax, VA 22030 (LF) :

WEIDMAN, SCOTT T. (Mr) 4915 41st Street, NW, Washington, DC 20016 (M)

WEINBERG, HAROLD P. (Mr) 11410-1B-314 Strand Drive, Rockville,MD 20852 (F)

WEINER, JOHN (Dr) 8401 Rhode Island Avenue, College Park, MD 20740 (F)

WEINTRAUB, ROBERT L. (Dr) 407 Brooks Avenue, Raleigh, NC 27607 (EF)

WEISS, ARMAND B. (Dr) 6516 Truman Lane, Falls Church, VA 22043 (LF)

WEISSLER, PEARL (Mrs) 5510 Uppingham Street, Chevy Chase, MD 20815 (EF)

—

TE eR

1992 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY 221

WEISSLER, ALFRED (Dr) 5510 Uppingham Street, Chevy Chase, MD 20815 (F)

WELLES, MARILYN T. (Ms) P.O. Box 95, Cabin John, MD 20818 (M)

WELLMAN, FREDERICK L. (Dr) 501 E. Whitaker Mill Road, Whitaker Glen 105-B, Raleigh, NC

27608 (EF)

WENSCH, GLEN W. (Dr) RR No. | Box 54, Champaign, IL 61821 (EF)

WERGIN, WILLIAM P. (Dr) 10108 Towhee Avenue, Adelphi, MD 20783 (F)

WERTH, MICHAEL W. (Mr) 14 Grafton Street, Chevy Chase, MD 20815 (EM)

WESTWOOD, USN (Ret) JAMES T. (LCDR) 3156 Cantrell Lane, Fairfax, VA 22031 (M)

WHITE, HOWARD J. JR (Dr) 8028 Park Overlook Drive, Bethesda, MD 20817 (F)

WHITELOCK, LELAND D. (Mr) 2320 Brisbane St, Apt 4, Clearwater, FL 34623 (NRF)

WHITTEN, CHARLES A. (Mr) 9606 Sutherland Road, Silver Spring, MD 20901 (EF)

WIENER, ALFRED A. (Mr) 550 W 25th Place, Eugene, OR 97405 (NRF)

WIESE, WOLFGANG L. (Dr) 8229 Stone Trail Drive, Bethesda, MD 20817 (F)

WIGGINS, PETER F. (Dr) 1016 Harbor Drive, Annapolis, MD 21403 (F)

WILHELMSEN, GUNNAR (Dr) 7303 Hooking Road, McLean, VA 22101 (M)

WILMOTTE, RAYMOND M. (Dr) 2512 Que Street, NW, Washington, DC 20007 (LF)

WILSON, WILLIAM K. (Mr) 1401 Kurtz Road, McLean, VA 22101 (LF)

WISTORT, ROBERT L. (Mr) 11630 35th Place, Beltsville, MD 20705 (M)

WITTLER, RUTH G. (Dr) 2103 River Cresent Drive, Annapolis, MD 21401-7271 (EF)

WOLFF, EDWARD A. (Dr) 1021 Cresthaven Drive, Silver Spring, MD 20903 (F)

WOOD, LAWRENCE A. (Dr) 7014 Beechwood Drive, Chevy Chase,MD 20815 (EF)

WORKMAN, WILLIAM G. (Dr) Washington St, P.O. Box 7, Beallsville, OH 43716 (EF)

WUERKER, ANNE K. (Dr) 887 Gold Spring Pl, Westlake Village, CA 91361-2024 (NRF)

WULF, OLIVER R. (Dr) 557 Berkeley Avenue, San Marino, CA 91108 (EF)

WYNNE, RONALD D. (Dr) 3128 Brooklawn Terrace, Chevy Chase, MD 20815 (F)

YAPLEE, BENJAMIN S. (Mr) 8 Crestview Court, Rockville, MD 20854 (F)

YODER, HATTEN S. JR. (Dr) Geophysical Lab, 5251 Broad Branch Rd, NW, Washington, DC 20015

YOUMAN, CHARLES (Mr) 4419 N. 18th Street, Arlington, VA 22207 (M)

ZELENY, LAWRENCE (Dr) 4312 Van Buren Street, University Park, MD 20782 (EF)

ZIEN, TSE-FOU (Dr) Code R44, Naval Surface Warfare Center, Silver Spring, MD 20903-5000 (F)

Necrology

The following fellows/members of the Academy deceased since the last publication

of the WAS membership directory.

Deceased Life Fellows/Members

Dr. David L. Blanchard

Deceased Fellows/Members

Mr. Hugo N. Cahnman Dr. E. F. Elliott

Dr. Glen E. Gordon Mr. Evan G. Lapham

Dr. George A. Moore Mr. R. H. Nelson

Dr. Sherman K. Neuschel Dr. Dirse W. Sallet

Dr. Raymond J. Seeger Dr. Russell L. Steere

Dr. John K. Taylor Dr. Bruce L. Wilson

Membership Distribution

Member Category N % Geographic Location N %

Fellow 241 39.8 Maryland 285 = 47.1

Non-Resident Fellow 49 8.1 Virginia 132." 208

Emeritus Fellow 134 822.1 Other States 103 E70

Life Fellow 45 7.4 Districtof Columbia 83 13.7

Member 119 05,1937 Foreign 2 0.3

Emeritus Member 14 23

Life Member 3 0.5

1992 Benefactors

Mr. Casper J. Aronson Dr. James Comas

Col. Thomas W. Doeppner Dr. William R. Faust

Dr. George E. Irving, Jr. Mr. Donald J. Morriss

Mr. Clayton W. Robson Mr. Benjamin S. Yaplee

222

“eumbors;.

tal

‘

u 42

. as raed

‘ Parry eo

“4

. ts

bite

~ - °

- 4 .

' xt

. 5 ay

; a@y

“

’

S a «

‘

DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES,

REPRESENTING THE LOCAL AFFILIATED SOCIETIES

| Padasopiical Society Of Washington. .220.2.52 J.02 6665 cee ee ec eee ene bee ee -. Thomas R. Lettieri

| Aatheapolorical Society of Washington 2 2...26 0... ei ck oe ee ee ee eee Belford Lawson III

| Paaieteal society Of Washington: c50 6.2 esc cc ec cece nese cells bo uade ne weuen Kristian Fauchald

Ghemucal society Of Washington ..2. ce. 2. eck hs hoo vie ope wlermeie s Saws sels Elise A. B. Brown

Entomeolopical Society of Washington .........2........ 55.00. e seen F. Christian Thompson

| Watronal:Geographic Society ........2..5....... Ge TEneae Ma he ee Stanley G. Leftwich

| Me mMrieaINSOCIELY Of, WiaShINP{ON (6220 2cce oo: ees oe alee ine be wee odie aaele ee dees VACANT

Miearedeseciety Of the Misinict of Columbia: of 0 6.9 eel ose os hada e ede eke John P. Utz

| imiencalsociety of Washington,DC -..........6.6.50.000e0 eho cena ess Thomas G. Manning

Bocca society Of Washington 22.0: 26 sess ci sala. ooh osie okie dees vad Wes sdoews Muriel Poston

Saciemsor American Foresters, Washington Section ............0000...e002-.0- Eldon W. Ross

SaeeteT OM SOCIety Ol EMPINGEIS = 442 sa7-(02 fee tielee dae teds cca tale ds Oe se ngs oe cae Alvin Reiner

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Washington Section ........ George Abraham

| American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Washington Section ......... Clayton W. Robson

| Heinuntiological Society of Washington .....:.......0600066.606ceccde wesc eeeeceses VACANT

| American Society for Microbiology, Washington Branch .................. Herman Schneider

| Society of American Military Engineers, Washington Post ................. William A. Stanley

American Society of Civil Engineers, National Capital Section .............. John N. Hummel

Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine, DC Section .............. Cyrus R. Creveling

ASMeintermational, Washington Chapter... 5.0... ...5. 0c cece htc cece es Pamela S. Patrick

| American Association of Dental Research, Washington Section ............. J. Terrell Hoffeld

| American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, National Capital

| Amectican Meteorological Society; DC Chapter ..... 0.00020... cc ede eens A. James Wagner

| estsclemee society Of Washington .6.%.62 5 cen ee esas socectecge dee es cus To be determined

Acoustical Society of America, Washington Chapter .....................2.. Richard K. Cook

| Ametican Nuclear Society, Washington Section’... 2 5....05 0. 6d. cee hee ena ee ees Kamal Araj

| Institute of Food Technologists, Washington Section ....................00000 Roy E. Martin

| American Ceramic Society, Baltimore-Washington Section .................. Curtis A. Martin

| ELECTR EE WATT TOTL. SCSI) Nee ee ae Og Un RASS gs Po ee Pe I Regis Conrad

| Nvashinetonudmustory of Science Club: 2.0. 62.6. Svcs ce sce ewe eecceue Albert G. Gluckman

| American Association of Physics Teachers, Chesapeake Section ............. Robert A. Morse

| Optical Society of America, National Capital Section ...................... William R. Graver

! American Society of Plant Physiologists, Washington Area Section ............. Steven J. Britz

Washington Operations Research/Management Science Council .............. John G. Honig

| Instrument Society of America, Washington Section .....................000. Donald M. Paul

| American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers,

| VISITA PLOMUSECUIOM) nfne ei eee otc ee this Wele sf avietie oid dude Mace wae aa ss Harold Newman

| NationaleGapital AStroOnOmMe;ns me oho. es oe ck lie ek Wield ale ce Bett Robert H. McCracken

i Mathematics Association of America, MD-DC-VA Section ................. Sharon K. Hauge

Distnceor Columbia Institute of Chemists: 2)... 2.05.66 leet. eae e ee William E. Hanford

L District of Columbia Psychological Association ..... RIES Oh Node BSNS San cen RR eae Ron Wynne

} Washineton Paint Pechnology Group... 6.2.25. .6tecak eee ele dca neces occ Lloyd M. Smith

| American Phytopathological Society, Potomac Division .................... Kenneth L. Deahl

| Society for General Systems Research, Metropolitan Washington

H CIS EYOUUSTE. a) SURth Ges es Seon Oc ec ANS Se aa eae a David B. Keever

| Human actors, Society, Potomac Chapter 4... 2020). ose ns etek iccaees Thomas B. Malone

| American’ Fisheries Society, Potomac Chapter ........-.0..6......-cesese-:-- Dennis R. Lassuy

\ Association for Science, Technology and Innovation ....................00.000- Ralph I. Cole

| PRE ASLEEM SOCIOLOLICAIISOCICLY. lees screw os nese ae ne one sree tens Ronald W. Manderscheid

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Northern Virginia

SLC TKO) Tees En to ss 0 SIME aH EIR e/a eR NPR Blanchard D. Smith

| Association for Computing Machinery, Washington Chapter ............. Charles E. Youman

| Suewashinefon Statisiical\Society 5! 0.1. oo. ess oe es ee eee Nancy Flournoy

Society of Manufacturing Engineers, Washington, DC Chapter ............... James E. Spates

Institute of Industrial Engineers, National Capital-Chapter ................... James S. Powell

Delegates continue to represent their societies until new appointments are made.

}

' oa

Washington Academy of Sciences 2nd Class Postage Paid

2100 Foxhall Road, NW at Washington, DC

Washington, DC 20007-1199 and additional mailing offices.

Return Postage Guaranteed

HECKMAN |=

BINDERY INC. &

SEPT 99

Bound -To- N. MANCHESTER,

eS INDIANA 46962

WENT ye oe PPR Come WP ve wen : siete . . “- - :

Saw ce pee

smedion c

hye tS 6 OUT nk ae ge

2 ne LA Pip hom anAy

ish Tee dete bao pa pm

Shuai ha

2p se wrt

asm ont go

BBR eR NL

SPATE Re 58,

er at

~ BOM oot See

SSE rtp Sa em Sea

pp Wong Ag vine bi

IB LIT WY SRLS GH

miei

ae atin yedae ake

4 Aken pe

Fr eye

ONPA pn Ome

thopse

a Many tim HP OOF Vu ath NEN

ve paki va

Resto gs mes oS

aoe: Pare) he a RS

FeSO NINE STEED

ts fete

Peer err Lee ert

Migelbe Oa Ga

Stites

peer ee ae

Ay ee ane

BL OA ad

PON ee gee,

fpr e Mis ded iy ayene,

Se toupee pale

WN Didntyyy

wana are®

rey or]

Me Dp eae

Mey eh

Pe pt Ye Re MF NRA yn

Shep mp mitent yn at

WeNs ete Mt}

BF Ma A pata ee ng oh

eres

TP anti seets

MAMIE, ens tees

Dp BSE AON 08 ed

any cro

tes nanelee

cae APAMAN

SM Doses a Mg Rtg wy wana

eee rt eens

Be bomneRh esa a

ythe .

aie tthayoe

PAP ape

LSS ep aca HE

Pde a gatee oe EM,

Yetoreas

URE MER

WSS ra een enege

il oh ee enh

Nepees Y

Spy wasnt wee

PMS Sone My RNa,»

eres ere e!

é Rede en

(a # PV SIGAEA GA Ale ee oh 0 ORD AHO ogy

nN Up aT Me Wy pet a Arle Rena aie

Me BPM De Ap SULA APNE “lea balsa ling apap ovis

He Opn Ae Ce

aig Be USAIN. :

Leakey

RIN ORE NG KEIRA S

IWAN OL DP Wp nee

Siemens

nh ASA tim

pei pe Nees sn

A ypabtp oe

LR SOUR 76 pes

PUSS HTM A

AVF eRecmgit yw G

aS eee

24D ar pane)

EME my mii

DERN Og we oie TAN Am,

A RU Rae eS 8 ES

POR we aes

ee ea a

SOUR OV Se Gs

hag

AMIN Pare

Weds ty

RC Fe Sage CK

OUP A KS

KAP RGA

eta |

in So hyraseishentie

GTA Boe ent

HR HS HE OE NE oy

Pe he Ee eee

Seo cren at

DPMS A NT ate

eye ed Y,

nee Ayr i pr

PRA Apts On ade Hesse gh

“eV,

statal

WME Se senbe7

‘

é ea :

ee hae Bynes, pa

SEM MTA Bh

ae Piper Aur OD,

Bal ons

AAT TY yet

PES Ry te

FFE

Me ead yp IN Phuey

DAB AY Sy EEN

PPA Ar br

AI ONE Heb GOAL ok

Noe SER SES Gak B ty Op

SAARI Oe ea i gis

MeO teTNIS Em UAGAN t a ge

sure

SOTO Reng ag en

SPP hee a) aa

me abas a ea ea)

Dae et enter ted

ay peat

Sed

NTE 4AD EAY

Thame ne

SavR oe

SANE aa We sige OC ege

nasa Sette dere gone ueaee

VSum We SG gay iat or area PES Us BMMR

Sr aese COQ ON eed AAEM

Uae ad

Meee bane

UTA ARE Se tite

PHL HB pA wap CP Be

yes ME Ce Mey Le

Tass

REMI ee ay ees genta ay f

Perey aera’

Mpsrig hier

: SADA AD

bY RL OY Dany a ev

early:

Deno

~ eget ATP Pat

UA AZT Y ms

Fg apa AHA RY PRD OS wh

nag hee

PAW SE ET syn

Daneel hen

Msuea ane PURE MAGEE IE

PRA DHEON SEEM HFEF EMMA waren geile be

BNE ete Raya gs

VPN ATO Sas “

Pie yp.

any Ea

weed APA

BY cate as

kag Ny