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Volume 100
Number 1
Spring 2014
Journal of the
WASHINGTON
ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Editor’s Comments S. Rood .
. Ill
Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change
C. L Parkinson 1
Stepping Stones, Detours, and Potholes on the Flexible Path to Mars
D. W. Gage 19
Essay; Science, Technology, Knowledge-Based Innovation: Too Much
of a Good Thing? R. W. Coan 17
Membership Application 57
Instructions to Authors 58
Affiliated Institutions 59
Affiliated Societies and Delegates 60
ISSN 0043-0439
Issued Quarterly at Washington DC
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The Journal of the Washington Academy of
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Journal of the
WASHINGTON
lUl
ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Volume 100 Number 1 Spring 2014
Contents
Board of Discipline Editors ii
Editor’s Comments S. Rood iii
Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global
Climate Change C. L. Parkinson 1
Stepping Stones, Detours, and Potholes on the Flexible Path to Mars
D. W. Gage 19
Essay: Science, Technology, Knowledge-Based Innovation:
Too Much of a Good Thing? R. W. Coan 37
Membership Application 57
Instructions to Authors 58
Affiliated Institutions 59
Affiliated Societies and Delegates 60
ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington DC
Spring 2014
II
Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences
Editor
Sally A. Rood, PhD
sallv.rood2@gmail.com
Board of Discipline Editors
The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences has an 11-
member Board of Discipline Editors representing many scientific and
technical fields. The members of the Board of Discipline Editors are
affiliated with a variety of scientific institutions in the Washington area
and beyond — government agencies such as the National Institute of
Standards and Technology (NIST); universities such as George Mason
University (GMU); and professional associations such as the Institute of
Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
Anthropology
Astronomy
Biology/Biophysics
Botany
Chemistry
Environmental Natural
Sciences
Health
History of Medicine
Physics
Science Education
Systems Science
Emanuela Appetiti eappetiti@,hotmail.com
Sethanne Howard sethanneh@msn.com
Eugenie Mielczarek mielczar@phvsics.gmu.edu
Mark Holland maholland@salisburv.edu
Deana Jaber diaber@marvmount.edu
Terrell Erickson terrell.erickson 1 @wdc. nsda.gov
Robin Stombler rstombler@auburnstrat.com
Alain Touwaide atouwaide@hotmail.com
Katharine Gebbie katharine.gebbie@nist.gov
Jim Egenrieder iim@deepwater.org
Elizabeth Corona elizabethcorona@gmail.com
Washington Academy of Sciences
Ill
Editor’s Comments
What a privilege it is for me to be able to edit this Journal of the
Washington Academy of Sciences which has featured at least eight Nobel
laureates since its beginnings in the 1800s! This Journal is a very
important forum for multi-disciplinary conversations. As a D.C.-area
colleague recently noted, “Cross discipline conversations happen all too
rarely.”
The three authors of this issue are all based in the Washington,
D.C. area, highlighting the diverse scientific and technical resources of
this metropolitan region.
Our first author is Claire Parkinson who is a climate scientist at
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, where her
research emphasis is on polar sea ice and its connections to the rest of the
climate system and on climate change. We’re proud to feature her paper,
“Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global
Climate Change,” which was a plenary presentation at the Washington
Academy of Sciences’ Capital Science 2014 Conference, March 29-30,
2014, at Marymount University in Arlington, Virginia.
The next author, Douglas Gage, was affiliated with the Defense
Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in northern Virginia
before his recent retirement. His paper, “Stepping Stones, Detours, and
Potholes on the Flexible Path to Mars” is a follow-on to his article in our
Fall 2013 Journal, “Humans to Mars: Stay Longer, Go Sooner, Prepare
Now.” If you’re interested in this topic — a popular one in the D.C. area
— you’ll want to check out that earlier piece, as well.
Our final author, Ron Coan, is a Research Fellow at the Center for
Regional Economic Competitiveness — also headquartered in northern
Virginia — which researches data availability, quality, and statistical
methods for regional economic analyses. The Center’s membership-based
professional society counterpart, the Council for Community and
Economic Research (C2ER), has been headquartered in the Washington,
D.C. area for more than 50 years. Coan’s thoughtful essay, “Science,
Technology, Knowledge-Based Innovation: Too Much of a Good Thing?”
is anchored in the field of economics. He questions the current widespread
use of science and technology-based innovation as a strategy for short-
and intermediate-term economic development and fears that innovation’s
creative destruction could create political instability — a concept not
discussed in the current literature.
Spring 2014
IV
In the spirit of scientific discourse, we welcome input from readers
and rejoinders to the perspectives presented in this issue.
Sally A. Rood, PhD, Editor
Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences
sallv.rood2@gmail.com
Washington Academy of Sciences
1
INVITED PAPER*
Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a
Microcosm of Global Climate Change
Claire L. Parkinson
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
Abstract
Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been
monitored through satellite observations for more than three and a half
decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information
about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a
prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much
lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the
important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The
decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with
contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibited particularly large
decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both
preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice
coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial
differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with
atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by
the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the
issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with
broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea
ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of
global climate change.
Introduction
Sea ice is a vital component of the global climate system, spreading
over vast areas of the polar oceans, reflecting much of the incident solar
radiation back to space, and hindering ocean-atmosphere exchanges of
heat, mass, and momentum. In fact, sensitivity studies with the global
climate model of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
determine that 37% of the global warming calculated for a doubling of
atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in that model is explicitly due to the
inclusion of sea ice in the calculations (Rind et al., 1995).
* This paper was a plenary presentation at the Washington Academy of Sciences’ Capital
Science 2014 Conference, March 29-30, 2014, at Marymount University in Arlington,
Virginia.
Spring 2014
9
Prior to the advent of satellite observations, knowledge of the
large-scale coverage of sea ice and its changes were based on limited,
largely anecdotal data. The pre-satellite sea ice records were even more
incomplete than the temperature records, many of which omit the majority
of the Earth’s vast ocean area. However, since the late 1970s, satellites
have provided such a clear view of sea ice coverage that sea ice has shifted
from being among the least well documented of major Earth system
components to being among the best documented. Passive-microwave
satellite instruments in particular have allowed routine measurements of
sea ice year round — under dark as well as sunlit conditions and under
cloudy as well as cloud-free conditions.
Results from the satellite record show that sea ice has many
commonalities with the records of other elements of the climate system,
such as interannual variability, long-term trends that are significant but by
no means monotonic, and spatial differences that are not fully understood
and can complicate the interpretation of the overall trends. These
commonalities in the behaviors have led to further commonalities in how
the sea ice and broader climate results are discussed in the media and by
the general public: They have given ammunition both to people concerned
about climate change and to those rejecting those concerns, and they have
led to a mixture of exaggerated statements and attempts at balance. Such
commonalities allow the changes in the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice to be
viewed as a microcosm of the changes in the more complete and
complicated climate system as a whole. This paper examines these issues
through sections on the data sources, the predictions, the observational
records, and a discussion of the commonalities.
Data Sources
Temperature reconstructions for times prior to the advent of
satellite technology are based in large part on land-based records,
reflecting the difficulties of obtaining routine measurements over the
ocean, and are weighted toward the Northern Hemisphere (Easterling et
al., 1997; Hansen et al., 1999). With oceans covering 70% of the Earth’s
surface area, the slighting of the oceans in the temperature record is a
serious limitation. Still, impressive attempts have been made at estimating
the global temperature trends since the late 1880s from instrumental
records and over that period and longer periods from proxy records (e.g.,
Mann and Jones, 2003; Hansen et al., 2010; Anderson et al., 2013). Not
unexpectedly, impressive as they are, these attempts at reconstructing past
global temperature values with limited input data have received criticism
Washington Academy of Sciences
3
both for the lack of sufficient data and for the methodology, as epitomized
by the heated controversy over the so-called ‘hockey-stick’ plot of
temperatures from the past 1,000 years, which shows a very sharp increase
in temperatures in the past 100 years (see Mann et al., 1999, for the
original plot, and Jansen et al., 2007, for discussion of the controversy).
Impressive attempts have also been made to reconstruct sea ice
conditions, at least in the Arctic, for several decades prior to the satellite
record {e.g., Walsh and Chapman, 2001). These records are based largely
on ship reports and aircraft measurements, both of which are limited in
teiTns of how much of the ice is measured and how frequently. The
remoteness of sea ice from human habitations and the harsh conditions
(cold, instability, expansive area, etc.) make regular long-term sea ice
measurements of the full Arctic and/or Antarctic ice covers extremely
difficult through any surface-based or aircraft-based system. However, the
harsh conditions at the surface are not limitations for satellite sensing. In
fact, polar-orbiting and near-polar-orbiting satellites get particularly
frequent coverage of the polar regions.
Sea ice can be viewed from a variety of satellite instruments, each
with its own advantages and disadvantages. For instance, instruments
measuring visible radiation are particularly good at obtaining spatially
detailed views of the type that the human eye can see on a clear day from
an aircraft. However, those advantages of visible radiation are only
realized under daylight conditions and without clouds obscuring the view.
Similarly, other instrument types also have their various advantages and
disadvantages. So far, the data source that has proven most valuable in
obtaining a climate data record of sea ice coverage is passive-microwave
radiometry, and it is therefore the passive-microwave data sets that are
used for the sea ice results presented in this paper.
The microwave data being recorded by satellite passive-microwave
instruments derive from the Earth system and hence do not require
sunlight, allowing data collection at any time of the day and any day of the
year, thereby providing a major advantage over visible radiative data.
Furthermore, with careful selection of microwave wavelength, the
microwave data can be collected under most cloud conditions, as well as
under cloud-free conditions, as portions of the microwave spectrum can
pass nearly uninhibited through most clouds. The fact that sea ice imagery
can be collected day or night and under cloudy or cloud-free conditions,
combined with the fact that sea ice and liquid water have quite different
Spring 2014
4
microwave signatures, makes sea ice monitoring with passive-microwave
instruments particularly effective for obtaining a long-term sea ice record.
The first major passive-microwave imager in space was NASA’s
Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR), launched in
December 1972 on board the Nimbus 5 satellite. This was a single-
channel, proof-of-concept instrument, measuring at a wavelength of 1.55
cm (a frequency of 19.35 GHz), and it obtained a four-year record of sea
ice coverage in both the Arctic (Parkinson et al., 1987) and the Antarctic
(Zwally et al., 1983). Although the record contained major data gaps
(including some entire months without data) and the limitation to a single
channel prevented sorting out issues regarding sea ice types, the Nimbus 5
ESMR was a tremendous success in establishing the potential of satellite
passive-microwave instruments for monitoring sea ice and other climate
variables.
The ESMR was followed by more advanced passive-microwave
instruments that have been flown successfully in space by several different
countries. The data used for the results presented in this paper are from
NASA’s Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR),
launched in October 1978 and obtaining a record through mid-August
1987, and from the Department of Defense’s Speeial Sensor Microwave
Imager (SSMI) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS)
instruments, launched on a sequence of satellites starting in June 1987 and
continuing to the present.
The passive-microwave data are used to calculate estimated sea ice
concentrations, defined as the areal percentage sea ice coverage; and the
ice concentrations are used in turn to derive sea ice extents, calculated as
the sum of the areas of all pixels (in the region of interest) having ice
concentrations of at least 15%. There are several different ice
concentration algorithms in use, reflecting in part the fact that which
algorithm is best depends on such factors as whether the algorithm is
being applied globally or only to a specific region. When applied only to a
specific region, tuning of the algorithm for that region can be quite helpful
(e.g., Cho et al., 1996). Still, the strong contrast between the microwave
signatures of ice and liquid water leads to very similar ice extents and
trends irrespective of which algorithm is used {e.g., Comiso and
Parkinson, 2008; Parkinson and Comiso, 2008), and hence no major
controversies have arisen regarding the basics of the satellite-derived sea
ice results. [This contrasts with the temperature records, where
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5
controversies have arisen Hurrell et al., 2000; Mears and Wentz,
2005).]
Predictions
Many factors are known to contribute to environmental and
climate ehange, with the changes induced by some factors being quite
opposite to those induced by others. For instance, among the human
contributions, our emissions of particulate matter have a tendency overall
to cool climate (and also to damage many people’s health), whereas our
emissions of greenhouse gases have a tendency to wann climate. Many
studies have been carried out incorporating the different factors into
numerical models used to predict future conditions based on various
assumptions, such as the magnitude of future greenhouse gas emissions
and particulate emissions. Most of these studies have concluded that the
effects of the greenhouse gases will dominate over countering effects,
hence predicting climate warming (Collins et al., 2013; Kirtman et al.,
2013; Wolff c/ <7/., 2014).
Predictions of warming from human activities go back at least to
Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927), who in 1896 calculated the predicted
amount of warming from a doubling or tripling of CO2 and for increases to
150% and 250% and decreases to 67% of the values at the time
(Arrhenius, 1896). Arrhenius was living in a century when Europe was
emerging from the centuries-long period of cold conditions termed the
Little Ice Age and understandably welcomed the anticipated warming,
considering it a positive impact of human activities (Weart, 2003).
Today it is widely thought that if warming continues to the
anticipated levels, the favorable aspects, like fewer deaths from freezing
and more CO2 for plant photosynthesis, will be outweighed by the
unfavorable aspects, like sea level rise and more deaths from heat stroke.
Not everyone agrees either with the projected wanning or with the
expectation that warming would be more unfavorable than favorable, but
the scientific consensus for those views is strong, as reflected in the 2013
report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Collins
et al., 2013; Kirtman et al., 2013) and in a 2014 overview on climate
change from the Royal Society and the U.S. National Academy of
Sciences (Wolff et al., 2014).
In light of the expected warming, sea ice has long been expected to
decrease (Parkinson and Kellogg, 1979; Collins et al., 2013), although in
some cases with a much greater decrease predicted for the Arctic than for
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6
the Antarctic (Gordon and O’Farrell, 1997). The 2013 summary
predictions from the IPCC include that it is “very likely” that Arctic sea
ice will continue to decrease and that it is “expected, but with low
confidence” that Antarctic sea ice will decrease (Collins et al., 2013).
Observational Record
Records of atmospheric CO2 show an extremely systematic annual
cycle and upward trend. In fact, it is so systematic that in the iconic Mauna
Loa curve, started in 1957 by Charles David Keeling at the Mauna Loa
Observatory in Hawaii and continued since then by Keeling and others,
almost every year shows higher CO2 values than the previous year
(http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/). The temperature record since
the late 1 800s shows the expected upward trend in the long term; but it is
nowhere near as systematic as the Mauna Loa CO2 record, instead
showing many years cooler than the previous year and little warming since
1998 {e.g., Hansen et al., 2010; IPCC, 2013). The fact of many years
having cooler conditions than the previous year was fully expected, on
account of the well-known facts of many differing influences on the
climate and much interannual variability. However, the lack of marked
warming since 1 998 was not expected and has added to the ammunition of
those unconvinced by the model predictions of upcoming serious
problems with further warming.
As detailed in the following subsections, the sea ice records for
both polar regions are far more similar to the global temperature record
than to the CO2 record in terms of showing considerable interannual
variability and some significant changes outside of the model predictions,
along with a long-term trend, at least in the Arctic, that is in large part
qualitatively in line with the predictions. The next two subsections provide
details on the sea ice record for the period November 1978 - December
2013, as determined from the data of the SMMR, SSMI, and SSMIS
satellite passive-microwave instruments.
Arctic Sea Ice
In the Arctic, annual maximum sea ice extent typically comes in
March and minimum sea ice extent typically comes in September, with an
average March ice extent of 15,200,000 km^ over the 1979-2013 period
and an average September ice extent of 6,360,000 km^ over the same
period. The March ice covers not just the Arctic Ocean but many of the
surrounding seas and bays, while the September ice is confined largely to
the central Arctic, the Canadian Archipelago, and the northern portion of
Washington Academy of Sciences
7
the Greenland Sea to the east of Greenland (Figure 1). The smallest daily
ice extent over the 35 years was 3,400,000 km , which occurred on
September 16, 2012, and the largest daily ice extent was 16,300,000 km^,
which occurred on March 1, 1979.
Figure 1. Average March and September sea ice concentrations in the Arctic region over
the period 1979-2013, as derived from satellite passive-microwave SMMR, SSMl, and
SSMIS data.
Because of the magnitude of the annual cycle, this cycle dominates
plots of multi-year time series of either monthly average or daily average
ice extents (e.g., Figure 2). However, when the annual cycle is removed,
as done in Figure 3 by taking monthly deviations, a clear trend emerges,
showing decreasing Arctic sea ice coverage over the course of the satellite
record since the late 1970s (Figure 3). The downward trend was apparent
by the middle and late 1990s (Johannessen et al., 1995; Parkinson et al.,
1999), although it has become far more convincing since then (e.g.. Figure
3). The trend (slope of the line of least squares fit) and standard deviation
for the November 1978 - December 2013 period is -53,800 ± 1,900
km^/yr. This equates to an areal loss of ice extent each year greater than
the area of the country of Costa Rica or the combined area of the states of
Spring 2014
8
Vermont, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. When the annual cycle is
removed instead by taking yearly averages, the trend is nearly identical to
the trend calculated from monthly deviations, although with a larger
standard deviation, the yearly average trend for 1979-2013 being -53,900
± 3,800 km^/yr (-4.3 ± 0.3 %/decade). (Note that the yearly average trend
does not include the data from November and December 1978, whereas
the monthly-deviation trend in Figure 3 does include those first two
months of the SMMR record.)
Figure 2. Arctic monthly average sea ice extents, November 1978 - December 2013, as
derived from SMMR, SSMl, and SSMIS data.
The downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage occurs in every
season and every month, with September being the month that has
experienced the greatest declines. For September, the 35-year trend, 1979-
2013, is -87,300 ± 9,300 km^/yr (-11.1 ± 1.2 %/decade). Even for May,
which is the month with the lowest magnitude trend, the value is a sizeable
-29,900 ± 4,300 km^/yr (-2.2 ± 0.3 %/decade).
The fact of a downward trend in the Arctic ice cover was expected
and is in line with a suite of additional changes in the Arctic in recent
decades, including increasing temperatures, lessened land ice, thawing
permafrost, greening tundra, greater coastal erosion, and altered
predominant wind patterns (e.g., Jeffries e/ al., 2013). The magnitude of
Washington Academy of Sciences
9
the trend, however, has been greater than expected, at least in September
(Stroeve et aJ., 2007), which is the month receiving the most attention,
both because of being the month of minimum ice coverage, and hence the
month most likely to become ice-free in coming decades, and because of
having the greatest ice losses.
Figure 3. Arctic sea ice extent monthly deviations, November 1978 — December 2013,
calculated from the data plotted in Figure 2. (Monthly deviations are calculated by
subtracting from each individual month’s ice extent the average ice extent for that month
throughout the record. For example, the value plotted for the first point, November 1978,
is the November 1978 ice extent minus the average ice extent for all 36 Novembers 1978-
2013.)
Two particularly large decreases in ice coverage, in the summers
of 2007 and 2012, stand out on the plot of monthly ice-extent deviations
(Figure 3). Both of these have generated interest among scientists as well
as various media outlets. The plummeting of the Arctic ice extent in 2007
was astonishing to sea ice experts, as it was such a dramatic change from
anything seen before in the satellite record (Figure 3), descending to 76 %
of the lowest recorded ice extent in any previous year. Studies examining
this decrease generally conclude that its unusual magnitude involved a
combination of factors, including that the ice cover was weakened from
decades of ice reductions (“preconditioning”) and that the Arctic weather
conditions in the late summer of 2007 were warmer than nomial and had
predominant wind directions that pushed the ice in one direction, toward
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10
the northern Greenland and Canadian coasts, leaving ice-free waters
behind (Comiso et al., 2008; Lindsay et al., 2009).
In 2012, the Arctic ice cover plummeted even further than in 2007,
after several years with some rebounding from the 2007 then-record
minimum (see Figures 2 and 3). Here too, analysis of the conditions
suggest that the ice decreases were caused by a combination of
preconditioning and weather, with a large storm in early August 2012
helping to speed the seasonal August retreat of the ice (Simmonds and
Rudeva, 2012; Parkinson and Comiso, 2013). In this case, however, the
decay to a new minimum might well have occurred even without the early
August storm, as simulated in a numerical modeling study by Zhang et al.
(2013). Zhang and his colleagues reduce the surface wind speeds in their
numerical model by 50% for the August 5-9 period of the storm, then
compare the results with a control case incorporating the full strength of
the storm. They conclude, in part, that the storm had a major impact on the
ice during the period of the storm but that even without the storm, the ice
cover would have reached a new record low (Zhang et al., 2013).
Antarctic Sea Ice
Like the Arctic sea ice, Antarctic sea ice undergoes a very large
annual cycle and has considerable interannual variability. In fact, the
annual cycle is even larger in the Antarctic than in the Arctic. In the
Antarctic, annual minimum ice coverage typically comes in February, in
the midst of the austral summer, and maximum ice coverage typically
comes in September, at the end of the austral winter. The average
February ice extent over the 1979-2013 period is 3,100,000 km , even
lower than the record minimum (so far) in the Arctic, and the average
September ice extent is 18,500,000 km , well above the Arctic’s record
maximum. The Antarctic’s February ice is confined largely to the near-
coastal region, with the greatest expanse of ice occurring to the immediate
east of the Antarctic Peninsula, in the western Weddell Sea, while the
September ice extends much farther north, even equatorward to beyond
55°S just east of the Greenwich meridian, in the far eastern Weddell Sea
(Figure 4). The smallest daily ice extent in the Antarctic over the 35 years
was 2,300,000 km^, which occurred on February 27, 1997, and the largest
daily ice extent was 19,600,000 km , which occurred on October 1, 2013,
for a full range of 17,300,000 km^, 34% higher than the corresponding
12,900,000 km^ range for the Arctic.
As in the Arctic, the large annual cycle dominates plots of time
series of Antarctic monthly average or daily average ice extents {e.g..
Washington Academy of Sciences
Figure 5) and a clear trend appears after removing the annual cycle
through calculating monthly deviations (Figure 6). However, in the
Antarctic case, the trend is toward increasing rather than decreasing ice
coverage (Figure 6). The trend in this case is 18,600 ±2,100 km /yr. Once
again, when yearly averages are calculated, the resulting trend, at 1 8,900 ±
4,000 km^/yr (1.67 ± 0.35 %/decade), is close to the trend calculated
through monthly deviations, and every month has a trend of the same sign,
in the Antarctic case all positive. In the Antarctic, the month with the
largest trend for the 35-year period is December, at 29,800 ± 10,100
knr/yr (3.0 ±1.0 %/decade), and the month with the smallest trend is
February, at 10,600 ± 6,000 km^/yr (3.65 ± 2.06 %/decade), i.e.,
substantial trends but considerably smaller in magnitude than the trends
for the Arctic.
Figure 4. Average February and September sea ice concentrations in the Antarctic region
over the period 1979-2013, as derived from satellite passive-microwave SMMR, SSMl,
and SSMIS data.
Besides the major contrast that the Arctic has lost ice while the
Antarctic has gained ice since the late 1970s, another important difference
is that in the Antarctic there exists a sizeable region with significant ice
trends opposite in sign to the trends for the Antarctic as a whole. This is
the region of the Bellingshausen/ Amundsen Seas to the west of the
Antarctic Peninsula. In this region, and also in a smaller region directly to
the east of the Peninsula, in the western Weddell Sea, the sea ice has
retreated, both decreases corresponding well with temperature increases
that have been reported along the Antarctic Peninsula (e.g., O’Donnell et
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12
ciL, 2011). The sea ice decreases in the Bellingshausen/ Amundsen Seas
have a trend in monthly deviations of -6,000 ± 1,100 km /yr (and a yearly
average trend of -5,700 ± 2,200 km^/yr, equating to -3.7 ± 1.4 %/decade),
partly offsetting the increases around the rest of the Antarctic continent.
(In the Arctic, there is also one region with trends of opposite sign to the
overall Arctic trends, but for that region, the Bering Sea, the trends are
much smaller m magnitude, at only 1,000 ± 400 km /yr in monthly
2
deviations and 900 ± 800 km /yr in yearly averages.)
Figure 5. Antarctic monthly average sea ice extents, November 1978 - December 2013,
as derived from SMMR, SSMl, and SSMIS data.
Because the increases in overall Antarctic sea ice coverage were
unexpected, several attempts have been made to explain them. For this, the
pattern of changes in the Antarctic ice have been infonnative. In
particular, the largest ice decreases have occurred in the region of the
Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas and the largest ice increases have
occurred immediately to the west of that region, in the Ross Sea. This
pattern suggests the possible impact of increased cyclonic (clockwise in
the Southern Hemisphere) atmospheric flow centered on the Amundsen
Sea. Thompson and Solomon (2002) and Turner el al. (2009) suggest a
possible connection with stratospheric ozone depletion and the resulting
atmospheric circulation changes. This remains a possibility, although in a
climate modeling study Sigmond and Fyfe (2010) found that stratospheric
ozone depletion led to decreased overall Antarctic sea ice, at least in their
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model. The various possible causes for the Antarctic sea ice increases and
pattern of increases and decreases remain areas of active research.
Figure 6. Antarctic sea ice extent monthly deviations, November 1978 - December 2013,
calculated from the data plotted in Figure 5.
Discussion
There are many ways in which the record of sea ice coverage (e.g.,
previous section) can be seen as a microcosm of the record of what has
happened in the larger climate system. Some major commonalities on the
technical side are:
• The records prior to satellites were quite incomplete.
• The records from satellites are imperfect but are much improved
over the pre-satellite records.
• There are robust mainstream predictions. These predictions, from
a wide range of models, include global warming overall and sea
ice decreases.
• Observations in recent decades are partly but not fully in line with
the predictions. This includes global warming overall but with
spatial differences and a very non-monotonic upward trend and
sea ice decreases overall but with sea ice increases in the
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Antarctic and non-monotonic decreases in the Arctic that are
occurring faster than the predictions.
• Considerable effort has been expended to explain unexpected
features of the observations. This includes studies of the warming
hiatus since 1998 {e.g., Meehl et al., 2011; Clement and DiNezio,
2014) and of the Antarctic sea ice increases since the late 1970s
(e.g.. Turner et al., 2009; Sigmond and Fyfe, 2010).
In addition to the technical commonalities, other key
commonalities include:
• The mainstream view is that the minuses from the predicted
changes will outweigh the pluses. For instance, the increase in deaths from
heat stroke, dislocations from sea level rise, ocean acidification, and other
minuses from warming and greenhouse gas increases are expected to
outweigh the decrease in deaths from freezing, the increased CO2 for
photosynthesis, and other pluses from increased greenhouse gases and
warming. Similarly, the minuses from sea ice decreases, such as lessened
reflectance of solar radiation and habitat damage for polar bears and other
animals dependent on sea ice, are expected to outweigh the pluses, such as
opening shipping lanes through the Arctic (with both pluses and minuses).
In the cases of both warming and sea ice decreases, not everyone agrees
that the minuses would outweigh the pluses, but the mainstream view does
say so.
• Public discussion and media attention have at times overhyped
different aspects of the issues and increased polarization. Polarization on
the seriousness of expected warming has been extreme, ranging from
statements that the situation will be catastrophic by the middle of the
current century if we fail to change course to statements that there is
nothing to worry about from coming changes because they are likely to be
beneficial rather than detrimental. Sea ice has not generated the same level
of polarization, but still it has generated strikingly erroneous statements,
such as assertions in August 2000 that ice-free conditions right at the
North Pole were occurring for the first time in 50 million years (see
discussion in Parkinson, 2010).
The overhyping of results and related polarization at times hinder
the balanced discussion needed for making wise policy decisions. They
also sometimes obscure the progress that has been made. Helped
tremendously by advances in computer capabilities, both the numerical
models and the measurement techniques have improved tremendously
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over the past several deeades, and these have both helped to advance the
understanding of the Earth system. We cannot be certain about what will
happen in the future, and indeed there could be significant surprises left to
come, but the measurements show quite convincingly that the greenhouse
gas CO2 has increased at least since 1957, when measurements began at
the Mauna Loa Observatory, that global temperatures have warmed since
the 1880s, that Arctic sea ice has decreased overall since late 1978, when
the multi-chamiel satellite passive-microwave record began, and that
although Antarctic sea ice has increased overall since late 1978, those
increases are far less than the sea ice decreases in the Arctic.
Acknowledgements
The author thanks Don Cavalieri for many years of collaboration in
updating the satellite passive-microwave data sets, Nick DiGirolamo for
help both in updating the data and in generating the figures, and the NASA
Cryospheric Sciences Program for funding the work.
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Bio
Claire Parkinson is a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space
Flight Center, where her research emphasis is on polar sea ice and its
connections to the rest of the elimate system and on climate change. She is
also Projeet Seientist for the Earth-observing Aqua satellite mission and
has written several books, ineluding ones on climate change, satellite
observations, and the history of science. She is a member of the National
Academy of Engineering, and a Fellow of the American Association for
the Advaneement of Science (AAAS) and Phi Beta Kappa.
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Stepping Stones, Detours, and Potholes on the
Flexible Path to Mars
Douglas W. Gage
XPM Technologies, Arlington, Virginia
Abstract
Sending humans to the surface of Mars is a large and complex
undertaking, and current NASA budget limitations preclude attacking
this project in an effective and efficient “Eyes on the Prize” manner.
The “Flexible Path” strategy NASA has adopted focuses on nearer tenn
sub-goals that are supposed to serve as useful “stepping stones” on the
path to Mars, but instead represent distractions from that ultimate goal.
Moreover, the actual allocation of funding in the NASA budget is
focused on the continuation of legacy projects and reflects the priorities
of principal Congressional and NASA Center and Headquarters
constituencies. Meanwhile, the commercial company SpaceX is
aggressively developing innovative capabilities that can support a
human mission to Mars and also radically reduce the cost of access to
space for everyone. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk openly states that his long
term goal is to personally retire on Mars, and he and his company
appear to have both the financial resources and flexibility to give this a
real shot. But a successful human mission to Mars requires more than
rockets; the challenges of living on the surface must be dealt with, and
when and how Musk will tackle these challenges is not clear.
Moreover, he speaks in terms of “colonization,” not just a visit. What
does the term “colony” really mean, and what additional requirements
come into play? This paper proposes a target “goal state” for an initial
exploration period, implementing extensive infrastructure that would
provide a strong basis for whatever further exploration and/or
colonization might follow.
Introduction
The planet Mars is far and away the single best ehoiee for an initial
extended human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Balancing the
difficulties of getting there (in terms of energy and transit time), the
resources available there (including atmospheric carbon dioxide and water
existing as underground or polar ice), the challenges of keeping people
alive there (we must bring, make, or grow everything needed to survive,
including air to breathe), and the probable payoffs of exploring there (the
opportunity to develop a rich understanding of the evolutionary path
followed by another planet not too different from our own, and with the
possibility of finding past or perhaps even extant life), no other
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extraterrestrial destination can compete. In fact, science fiction has treated
the planet Mars as its number one destination in space for over a century
[1] , and some lip service has been paid for several decades to the concept
of Mars being the ultimate goal of non-fictional space exploration efforts
[2] , [3], [4]. But only now, after some decades of sending robotic
spacecraft there, are we becoming seriously focused on actually sending
humans to Mars.
In a previous paper [5], we argued that the program to send the
very first human travelers to Mars should send only two 6-person crews to
Mars, who would each remain on the surface for 8 years; that the key
challenges to the success of the Mars enterprise relate to the surface stay
(as opposed to the travel to and from Mars); and that these challenges will
be most effectively and efficiently addressed with long-term low-level
efforts involving many disciplines and multiple organizations. The reader
should refer to that paper, and to the obvious Wikipedia entries, for
extended background information both on Mars and on the history of
human efforts to explore it. Other valuable resources include the websites
of Mars exploration advocacy groups such as the Mars Society [6] and
ExploreMars. [7] The purpose of this current paper is to present a high-
level critical examination of NASA’s effectiveness in pursuing the goal of
getting humans to the surface of Mars.
Key facts a traveler to Mars should know about the planet itself are
the following:
• Martian surface gravity is about 38% of Earth’s.
• A Martian day (“sol”) is 24 hours and 39 minutes.
• Temperatures on Mars are cold — typically -5C to -85C, with
extremes of about +20C and -140C — and are, not surprisingly,
coldest at night, at the poles, and in winter.
• The Martian atmosphere is very thin — its pressure is less than
1% of Earth’s — and is 96% carbon dioxide, plus nitrogen and
argon.
• Round-trip communication time between Earth and Mars is on the
order of 6 to 11 minutes when they are on the same side of the
Sun; when they are on opposite sides, it takes 40 to 44 minutes.
• Opportunities for feasible (/.c., lowest-energy) rocket launches
between Earth and Mars occur every 26 months in each direction.
Transit time is 6-8 months, and the return launch opportunity
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occurs about 1 8 months after arrival at Mars.
What capabilities do we need to develop in order to send a human
crew to Mars? Let’s eonsider the phases of the mission in order:
• Launch: from Earth to Low Earth Orbit (LEO)
• Trans-Mars Injection: firing rockets to leave Earth
• Deep Spaee Habitat (DSH): keeping the crew safe, secure,
productive, happy, and sane for the 6+ month coasting flight from
Earth to Mars
• Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL): arriving safely on the
Martian surface
• Mars Surface Habitat: keeping the crew safe, secure, productive,
happy, and sane for the stay on the surface of Mars (for at least 1 8
months, possibly 44, 70, 96 months, or forever)
• Launch: from Mars to orbit around Mars
• Trans-Earth Injection: firing rockets to leave Mars
• Deep Space Habitat (DSH): keeping the crew safe, secure,
productive, happy, and sane for the 6+ month coasting flight from
Mars to Earth
• Earth Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL): arriving safely on
Earth
Each of the four rocket firings and two atmospheric entries and
landings lasts less than a half hour — but these brief events are exciting
and risky, and expensive to implement and execute (remember Mars
Science Lab Curiosity’s “seven minutes of terror” [8]). Meanwhile, the
three stays in the space and surface habitats each last many months, and,
given enough time, things can go wrong in many ways, so we also need to
pay serious attention to the development and long-duration validation
testing of the “boring” stuff. The Apollo program experienced one serious
“cruise” incident with the explosion on board Apollo 13’s Command
Service Module (CSM) in some 271 days of flight (including the Skylab
and Apollo-Soyuz missions). Our DSH will have to be significantly more
reliable, and our Mars Surface Habitat much more so.
We have considerable freedom in how we map these mission
phases to distinct vehicles/sy stems. For example, we eould launch the
crew members from Mars in a Mars Ascent Vehiele (MAV), then transfer
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them to a separate DSH (which could be the same one they occupied on
the way to Mars, or a different one), or we could use an Earth Return
Vehicle (ERV) that would bring them all the way home to Earth.
Exploring (on paper) the multifarious options is a longstanding and
honorable occupation that NASA calls developing a “Design Reference
Mission” (DRM) [9] or “Design Reference Architecture” (DRA). [10]
Big Goal, Small Budget
We are afforded extremely limited resources to tackle the
challenging long-range goal of humans to Mars, so the question is how to
prioritize the development of the numerous capabilities required to reach
that goal. Which capabilities should be developed first, and how should
they be demonstrated, if at all? Let us consider in turn several possible
strategies.
Strategy: “Eyes on the Prize”
Given a single-minded goal, such as the challenge that President
Kennedy issued in 1961, “before this decade is out, of landing a man on
the moon, and returning him safely to earth,” a goal driven by shared
political will and fueled with adequate funding, the obvious program
strategy would be to outline the required elements and the dependencies
between them, to begin the development of those with the perceived
longest lead times, and most especially to explore the perceived
“unknowns.” The Apollo program laid out what was needed (adopting a
lean Lunar Orbit Rendezvous mission architecture), and began the
development of the Saturn V rocket, the Apollo Command and Service
Modules, and the Lunar Excursion Module (LEM), plus the space suit to
be worn on the surface of the moon, and the manned lunar rovers. At the
same time, the Gemini program was executed prior to Apollo flights to
demonstrate orbital rendezvous technologies and “space walk”
extravehicular activity (EVA) capabilities. The Apollo 7, 8, 9, and 10
missions validated via manned flight the capabilities of the various top-
level Apollo system elements, and Apollo 1 1 landed on the moon in July
1969, just 8 years after President Kennedy’s establishment of the goal.
An “Eyes on the Prize” strategy for sending humans to the surface
of Mars would consider all the elements of the mission, and develop the
required technologies and capabilities, initially focusing resources on the
resolution of the “unknowns” — such as the effects on humans of Martian
38% gravity; the Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) of large payloads
(10-40 metric tonnes) to the surface of Mars; and the appropriate
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atmospheric pressure and composition both for the surface stay on Mars
and for the transit habitat. Severe limits on funding would drive a tighter
focus on the capabilities actually needed for the humans-to-Mars mission.
Strategy: “Flexible Path ”
“Flexible Path” is the name given to the human space flight
strategy adopted by the Obama administration in 2010: to develop the
capability for extended (up to 1 year) human flights beyond Low Earth
Orbit and visit Near Earth Objects (NEOs) and/or the Earth-Sun Lagrange
points. This was one of the two strategies proposed by the “Review of
U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee” (a.k.a. the “Augustine
Committee”) chartered in 2009 to assess the viability of the Constellation
program; the alternative was to return humans to the Moon. Constellation
had been initiated by NASA to execute the “Vision for Space
Exploration” (VSE) [4] promulgated in 2004 by President George W.
Bush, whose stated goal had been to send humans “to the Moon, Mars,
and Beyond.” The Committee’s report [11] found that NASA’s human
spaceflight budgets, as programmed, were totally inadequate. Getting
humans to Mars was explicitly endorsed as the long-term goal, but
characterized as financially out of reach; moreover, the Committee stated
that either of the options they did propose would require increased
funding. The Obama administration cancelled Constellation, but elected to
continue development of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV)
and the heavy-lift Space Launch System (SLS).
“Flexible Path” is, of course, a metaphor, and the assumption
implicit in that metaphor is that precursor destinations represent “stepping
stones” on the way to the ultimate destination of humans on Mars. But this
is not a given; these destinations can also represent detours away from the
end goal. Here are several fairly obvious risks in pursuing a flexible path
approach:
• A precursor mission may require the development of specific
capabilities that are not necessary to achieve the overarching goal,
diverting attention and diluting funding away from “the prize.”
• Funding constraints may delay until too late the initiation of efforts
to develop capabilities that are critical to the overarching goal, but
that are not necessary to accomplish the precursor missions.
• A precursor mission may require a specific capability similar (but
perhaps not fully equivalent) to that required by the overarching
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goal, but require it years earlier, possibly eliminating more
advanced technical approaches that could be realized with
additional development time and resulting in a less than optimal
(and possible) solution.
So the danger is that NASA’s actual development efforts fail to
maintain a focus on the ultimate goal of humans to Mars, becoming
fixated on visiting destinations instead of developing and demonstrating
relevant capabilities. Precursor missions can and should serve as highly
visible signs of “progress,” providing inspiration and maintaining
awareness, enthusiasm, and constituency for the overall program — but
they should also represent meaningful steps toward the ultimate goal.
Let’s look at some specific “stepping stones” that have been
proposed for NASA’s Flexible Path:
• Sending a crew to a Near Earth Asteroid would provide an
excellent opportunity to demonstrate capabilities (z.e., a Deep
Space Habitat) needed for a year-long mission well beyond LEO.
The two problems with this mission are: (1) the number of viable
candidate asteroids is very (perhaps vanishingly) small; and (2)
while NASA has some notional DSH designs, it has not
undertaken the full-scale development of the required Deep Space
Habitat. Available funding has been completely allocated
elsewhere. Such a mission is therefore unlikely to occur until the
mid to late 2020s.
• In fact, NASA has recently adopted an alternate strategy, the
Asteroid Retrieval and Recovery Mission (ARRM). Instead of
sending astronauts to an asteroid, NASA proposes to use an
unmanned spacecraft to capture a small (roughly 8 -meter diameter)
asteroid intact and bring it back to a stable distant retrograde orbit
in the Earth-Moon system — close enough that astronauts can visit
and sample it using the Orion MPCV without requiring a DSH.
This expensive pair of missions will naturally divert resources
from preparing for an actual human mission to Mars. Admittedly,
the ARRM project would test out advanced solar electric
propulsion (SEP), which could significantly reduce the cost of
sending cargo to Mars, but SEP would afford a transit time that
would be far too long for human crews. The costs of the retrieval
component of ARRM could be avoided if the recovery effort were
redirected toward the tiny “mini-moons” (softball to dishwasher
sized) which frequently enter the Earth-Moon system and remain
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for periods of up to a few years [12]. The enterprise of mining
asteroids should be left to the two private companies that have
been founded to do this — Planetary Resources Corporation (PRC)
and Deep Space Industries (DSI).
• A crewed Mars flyby mission that would take advantage of a
fairly rare opportunity for a “free return” — no rockets would be
needed at Mars to begin the return to Earth — was devised in 2012
by Space tourist Dennis Tito [13] as “Inspiration Mars” [14], a
privately -funded mission to launch a married couple to Mars in
January 2018. Initial studies showed that this could not be done
with the system elements they had planned to use, but now the
same basic idea has been proposed (before a House Committee
hearing [15], [16]) as a candidate NASA-funded effort for a 2023
launch that would of necessity include a flyby of Venus before
traveling to Mars! It turns out that this plan, too, would require
elements that are not going to be available soon enough.
It is clear that all three of the “risks” identified above are present in
these nearer term missions — these are not stepping stones along the
flexible path to Mars; they are simply detours, expensive in terms of both
time and money.
Strategy: Leverage Legacy and Maintain Constituency
While NASA’s strategy for manned spaceflight is officially
referred to as “Flexible Path,” the actual allocation of major resources has
followed a much simpler strategy — to support legacy development
programs with major political constituencies in NASA and Congress. A
cynic might say that, while NASA’s official strategy for the robotic
exploration of Mars has been “Follow the Water,” the unofficial NASA
strategy for the development of human space flight has been “Follow the
Money.” The resource allocation focus has shifted from the development
of specific required capabilities to the maintenance of the NASA
workforce and the modernization of NASA facilities — for ensuring the
continuing prosperity of specific NASA Centers and the Congressional
Districts and States where they are located [17]. The Space Launch
System (SLS) and Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) together
consume almost $3 billion of NASA’s overall annual budget of about $17
billion.
The egregious problem is that the initial versions of SLS and Orion
will not be capable of executing even the planned stepping stone missions.
Spring 2014
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much less supporting a human mission to Mars. The initial Orion would
not even be able to repeat the Christmas 1968 lunar orbit mission of
Apollo 8, since the serviee module will not be able to provide enough
delta-v to enter lunar orbit and then return to Earth, and the heat shield
will not be able to handle a return from the Moon, much less from Mars.
Moreover, execution of the 2023 Inspiration Mars derivative Mars flyby
mission would require a planned enhanced upper stage that will not be
ready in time. A major source of coneem is the growth in the Orion mass,
as deseribed in a recent report from the U.S. Government Accountability
Office [18].
The inescapable conclusion is that a significant shift in
Congressional sensibilities will be necessary if NASA’s manned spaee
flight program is to avoid dithering about for the next decade, spending
much money, and perhaps actually executing the ARRM, while critical
capabilities needed to send humans to Mars are addressed inadequately, if
at all.
Of course, Russia’s absorption of Crimea and the continuing unrest
in eastern Ukraine cause concerns with continuing reliance on Russian
capabilities in space — six American astronauts per year fly to the
International Space Station (ISS) on Soyuz rockets from Baikonur at a
cost of $71M per seat, and some American reconnaissance satellites are
launched using boosters powered by rocket engines made in the former
USSR. One obvious response would be for Congress to immediately
restore withheld funding in order to accelerate the development and
certification of an American capability to transport our astronauts to the
ISS.
Another much less likely scenario that would strengthen support
for the space program would be a meteor strike with more consequences
(larger impactor, heavier damage, or an impact in the United States) than
the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. And, of course, the discovery of
life, especially extant life, on Mars by Curiosity or Opportunity rovers
would give a huge boost to the priority of exploring Mars.
Even granting the likelihood of some reluctant Congressional
aetion to accelerate the development of a U.S. commercial capability to
transport crew to/from the ISS, perhaps Mars enthusiasts should look
beyond NASA to consider other organizations that might have the means
and desire to send humans to Mars. NASA may not be the only “game in
town.” Proponents of Inspiration Mars and of MarsOne (to be discussed
below) clearly have the desire, and just as clearly, do not have the
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necessary means. Meanwhile, China has a serious space program, and the
growing Chinese economy, likely to surpass the U.S. in the not too distant
future, will allow China to apply considerable resources to space. China
does not participate in the ISS — in fact. Congress has now prohibited all
bilateral interactions between NASA and China. The Chinese do,
however, have their own small space station; have launched several
“taikonauts” into orbit (although the total time in orbit for all taikonauts
adds up to only about 70 days); and have stated that they intend to follow
up their current robotic exploration of the moon with a human landing in
the 2020s.
Instead of NASA: SpaceX and Elon Musk
When Elon Musk founded SpaceX (formally. Space Exploration
Technologies Corporation) in 2002, he stated that his intent in creating the
company was to enable him personally to retire on Mars. Since he was
bom in 1971 and appears to be in good health, retiring at age 69 in 2040
would probably work just fine. This is a very reasonable timeline for
landing humans on Mars!
SpaceX is clearly the most innovative (so far) of the “NewSpace”
companies, having developed: (1) the first high-thrust liquid-fuel rocket
engine (the Merlin) designed from scratch in the U.S. since development
of the space shuttle main engine (SSME); (2) a powerful booster rocket
(the Falcon 9) using that engine; and (3) a spacecraft (the Dragon) capable
of carrying several tonnes to LEO, and returning safely to Earth. After
leveraging Space Act agreements with NASA in the development of the
Falcon 9/Dragon system, SpaceX was awarded a contract to deliver cargo
to the ISS, and is also participating in NASA’s Commercial Crew
program, adapting the Dragon capsule (as DragonRider) and human-rating
the Falcon 9 to carry crew to and from the ISS.
Upcoming SpaceX Milestones. Building on its successes, SpaceX
already achieved or plans to accomplish a number of critical technical
milestones upcoming in the next year or two:
• Falcon 9 core recovery and re-use: After demonstrations of a
vertical tail-first booster landing capability with the “Grasshopper”
test article [19], the Falcon 9 first stage for the CRS-3 launch to the
ISS in April 2014 landed successfully in the ocean [20].
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• DragonRider abort system testing: The abort system for the
crew-carrying DragonRider capsule will use Super-Draco rocket
motors and tanks of hypergolic fuel mounted in the sidewalls of
the capsule instead of a solid-fueled disposable “escape tower” as
has been used in previous manned flights. This system will also be
used to support landings on the land (like the Soyuz) instead of in
the water. A program of tests [21] at SpaceX’s facility in
McGregor, Texas, will be followed by a launchpad-abort test and
then an in-flight abort from a Falcon 9 at maximum dynamic
pressure (max-Q). It will clearly be a big win if this Falcon 9 is
recoverable!
• First flight of Falcon Heavy: The Falcon Heavy consists of a
central Falcon 9 core, plus two additional strap-on Falcon 9 cores
as boosters. A maximum payload capacity of 53 tonnes to LEO is
to be achieved by throttling the center core’s engines and by cross-
feeding fuel from the outer cores to the center. With its first flight
now scheduled for 2015, the Falcon Heavy is competing for future
national security surveillance payloads as well as commercial
launches.
• “Raptor” methane engine development: SpaceX is pursuing the
development of the “Raptor” rocket engine, with 6 times as much
thrust as the Merlin, burning liquid methane (instead of refined
kerosene or liquid hydrogen) with liquid oxygen in an innovative
full-flow staged engine design [22], [23]. The stated application for
this engine is referred to as the “Mars Colonial Transporter.”
SpaceX/Musk Goals and Resources. SpaceX has been profitable
and cash flow positive for 6 years, and now has $4.8B worth of launches
on its flight manifest over the next 5 years [24]. SpaceX’s prices for
launches are better than competitive: its contract with NASA for cargo
delivery to the ISS calls for 12 flights for $1.6B, while NASA’s contract
with competitor Orbital Sciences calls for 8 flights for $1.9B. Moreover,
if/when SpaceX is able to rely on recovering its first stage boosters, its
launch costs to LEO will drop precipitously [25]. At that point SpaceX
should be able to gradually further reduce its prices to capture as much of
the global commercial launch market as the company can handle.
SpaceX co-founder and CEO Elon Musk is a serial entrepreneur
bom in South Africa. He received $165M for his 11% share of PayPal
when it was sold to EBay in October 2002, and has put the money to good
use. In addition to SpaceX, Musk is the major investor in Tesla Motors
Washington Academy of Sciences
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and Solar City, both of which have “gone public.” His personal stake in
the stock of these two companies was estimated to be $4.8B in May 2013
[26] , and a year later is probably closer to $9B.
When Musk was asked in June 2013 when SpaeeX would go
public, he Tweeted: “No near term plans to IPO @SpaceX. Only possible
in very long term when Mars Colonial Transporter is flying regularly.”
[27] If SpaceX were a publicly-traded company, Musk would have to
answer to his shareholders and maximize short-term company profits;
instead he can — and presumably will — (re)invest SpaceX corporate
resources, and/or his own personal fortune, in the much longer-term
enterprise of colonizing Mars. [28]
To use a feeble analogy with Columbus, with SpaceX Musk is not
trying to build the Pinta, the Nina, and the Santa Maria; instead, he is
working to build the Spanish fleets of the mid 1500s that carried colonists
from Spain to her colonies in the Americas and brought plundered treasure
back to Spain. In this analogy, all that’s missing are actual human colonies
on Mars. And, of course, some sort of motivating “treasure.”
On the Surface of Mars: Habitat, Base, Colony
Conventional planning (NASA’s DRA 5.0 [10], Mars Direct [29],
etc.) involves a “eonjunction” Mars mission with a surface stay of about
1 8 months, with the 4- or 6-person crew staying in a surface habitat. My
previous paper [5] envisions two 6-person crews inhabiting the same
underground base for a period of 8-10 years. And, without providing any
specifics, Elon Musk speaks in terms of a colony with a population of at
least hundreds. Let’s discuss each of these options in turn.
Habitat. A habitat is brought from Earth as a single highly-
integrated unit, or perhaps as a couple of elements that are conneeted
together after landing — the nominal habitat is a 40 metric tomie “tuna
can” — to support a single surface mission of limited duration, the 18-
month period between landing and the very next return launch window.
This relatively short stay suggests that almost all supplies will be brought
from Earth, rather than made or grown on Mars. The exception is likely to
be the harvesting of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and water from
subsurface ice, supporting the production of oxygen and fuel for the return
trip, and water and oxygen to support human life.
Base. A base is constructed on Mars — perhaps an underground
structure constructed by robots before humans arrive — and is intended to
support an open-ended mission or multiple missions, with a much longer
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total mission duration than for the habitat model. Once a crew remains on
the surface past a return opportunity, or a second crew joins the first, we
have a base. This means that the bias will shift from bringing all supplies
from Earth to making and growing as much as possible on Mars, and that
more attention will need to be paid to maintaining the psychological health
of the people there. Base activities will remain strongly focused on the
exploration of Mars.
Colony. A colony is a major open-ended enterprise: a pemianent
large base or constellation of bases with a continually growing population
and a viable economic basis. Major investments will be made in making
and growing “stuff’ on Mars instead of bringing it from Earth. And this
will include people: the first babies will be born on Mars, and the
demographics of the colony will change rapidly. People will basically be
living their own lives, and an increasing number of them will have little
actual involvement in the process of exploring or exploiting the planet.
While any humans traveling to Mars will spend more (likely much
more) time on the surface of Mars than en route to and from, both SpaceX
and NASA focus their attention and resources on space transportation,
developing and operating systems that carry spacecraft from the surface of
Earth to destinations “in space.” A NASA report [30] describes, with
considerable understatement, NASA’s focus with respect to Mars: “studies
of surface activities and related systems have not always been carried out
to the same breadth or depth as those focused on the space transportation
and entry or ascent systems needed for a Mars mission.” And, given Elon
Musk’s expressed interest in personally going to Mars, it will be
interesting to see when he will initiate efforts to explore the issues
involved in Mars “surface activities and related systems” and what form
those efforts will take, i.e.:
• a separate for-profit enterprise
• one or more development programs internal to SpaceX
• acquisition of companies with experience in areas such as life
support systems development or Antarctic base operations
• partnerships/joint ventures with other commercial companies
• partnerships with universities and/or other nonprofit organizations
• sponsorship of challenges and contests
• or some combination of any of the above. . .
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What About Mars One?
MarsOne [31] is a Dutch-based organization working to establish a
permanent Martian eolony by sending 4-person crews to Mars starting in
2023. Over 200,000 people have already applied online to make this one-
way trip to Mars, and MarsOne has contracted with Loekheed Martin for a
mission concept study of an initial robotie mission employing a Phoenix-
derivative lander. The huge initial hurdle is to aetually raise the many
billions of dollars that will be required to successfully exeeute the
MarsOne projeet. If they are successful in this, they will then face the
ehallenge of aetually developing the required systems in time to meet the
proposed schedule.
What is the Rationale for a Colony on Mars?
The establishment of any eolony requires two elements: (1)
eolonists who will aetually settle there, and (2) resourees to support the
transportation of the colonists and the infrastructure required to ensure the
ongoing viability of the eolony. The required resources may be provided
by the eolonists themselves, or by other “baekers,” in whieh case the
eolonists and the baekers may have very different motivations for
engaging in the enterprise.
The colonists are putting their own lives and the lives of their
families on the line. Their motivation may be religious freedom (the
Pilgrims at Plymouth), economic (Roman colonies, typieally established
by soldiers who were given free land to settle), or eoercive (“gentle” in the
case of English eonvicts transported to Australia, exceedingly harsh in the
transport of slaves to the New World). In any case, all that is required is a
pereeption that joining the colony is a better option than the alternatives
they have at hand.
The backers of a new colony are investing eeonomic resources
with some expectation of a return, whieh may be economie or otherwise.
A king may offer a grant of land to a private individual or group on the
condition that they establish a colony there. Colonies have been
underwritten for religious reasons (Maryland), for prestige and glory, or
simply to prevent another group from getting there first.
If the baekers antieipate an eeonomie return on their investment,
then the eolony needs a viable business plan. Jamestown tried making
glassware, but only achieved eeonomic viability later through the export
of high quality tobaeeo. But the cost of transporting mass back to Earth
from Mars makes it unlikely that a Martian colony will be able to rely on
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exports. The Mars colonists in Kim Stanley Robinson’s Red/Green/Blue
Mars trilogy [32], [33], [34] achieved economic independence by
discovering/ inventing a means of greatly prolonging human life. (This
plot device also allowed Robinson to keep his characters alive and active
through all three books.)
Is there a viable economic model for a colony on Mars? With no
arable land, and no prospect of an export economy, why would anyone
want to settle there, or back a colony there, rather than on Earth? In his
talk at the ExploreMars - Humans to Mars (H2M) Conference in April
2014, “NewSpace” serial entrepreneur (Orbital Outfitters, Deep Space
Industries) and long-time industry activist Rick Tumlinson was very
supportive of settlements on Mars, citing “right brain” reasons, including
“because it is there,” “because we want to,” and “because it’s inspiring.”
However, he also stated categorically, “there is no economic, direct
strategic, or planetary defence basis to support the settlement of Mars.”
[35] (Tumlinson speaks in terms of “settlements” rather than colonies:
“settlers” create a community and consider the new place to be their home.
Outposts, bases, and laboratories are not settlements.)
One possible economic basis for developing a colony on Mars
might be to support mining operations on main belt asteroids, hosting
facilities for minor medical care, “R&R” (rest and recuperation), and
training, and a “field office” for operations management personnel, and
serving as a source of provisions, such as oxygen, water, food and Argon
(which comprises 2% of the Martian atmosphere) to serve as ion
propulsion fuel. Mars would be suited for this role simply because it is
semi-convenient (located “half-way” between Earth and the asteroid main
belt) and much less inhospitable than asteroids themselves. This
presupposes, of course, that mining of asteroids actually becomes Big
Business. The real point is that compelling economic justifications for
early Mars colonization do not come readily to mind.
Humans to Mars: Goal State for Initial Exploration
What should be the end-goal for the initial phase of human
exploration of Mars? The long mission durations required by orbital
dynamics strongly motivate major up-front investments in extensive
infrastructure. Assuming that the cost of transporting mass to Mars will be
greatly reduced, and independent of whether a “colony” or “settlemenf’ is
to be attempted immediately, here is an initial “strawman” proposal. The
MarsOne website offers an analogous list [36], and the Mars Homestead
Washington Academy of Sciences
33
Project produced an extensive set of detailed analyses [371 back in 2005
and 2006:
• An initial manned base, sited principally for engineering
convenience (low altitude, moderate climate, exploitable water and
other resources) rather than for scientific merit; this could be the
nucleation point of a future colony.
• Possibly, additional manned bases sited to maximize scientific
payoff or to exploit specific resources.
• A constellation of areo-stationary orbiters to provide:
communications relay services both around Mars and with Earth;
localization services (analogous to GPS on Earth); and
observations of Mars weather and “space weather.”
• Additional specialized orbiters to provide targetable high-
resolution imagery of Mars and other sensing.
• Numerous miniaturized stationary ground weather stations,
deployed from space and reporting via satellite relay.
• Numerous exploration robots, deployed from the base or from
space, and including rovers and balloons, and possibly airplanes.
• Communications relay nodes at Earth-Sun Eagrange points L4
and/or L5, to guarantee communications during solar conjunction.
• Possibly, one or more Earth-Mars cyclers [38], [39], essentially
permanent Deep Space Habitats continuously moving back and
forth between the planets, to reduce the long-term costs of human
transport. These platforms would also: provide communications
relay services; sense space weather; detect NEOs; and perform
other observatory purposes.
The reason to articulate such a target goal-state for this initial
effort is to avoid the fate that befell human lunar exploration after Apollo.
The Eunar Orbit Rendezvous (EOR) strategy accelerated the moon
landing precisely because it eliminated the need for infrastructure
elements that might have afterward supported a continuing human
presence on the Moon. The long duration of any human Mars mission
requires extensive infrastructure at Mars; costs will be reduced through
economies of scale (multiple copies of the various systems) and by
exploiting Martian local resources to the greatest degree possible.
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Conclusion
Arguing for Mars as a human destination as opposed to a return to
the Moon, Louis Friedman said: “We should go to the Moon, and we did.”
Mars is far and away the single best choice for an initial extended human
presence beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), and there is no obvious “easy”
next destination beyond Mars. If we can’t demonstrate that humans can
live on Mars, then we as a species are never going anywhere else beyond
Earth. For humans, it is Mars itself that is the critical “stepping stone” on
whatever “flexible path” we will end up following to explore the rest of
the solar system and beyond.
References
[1] Crossley, R. Imagining Mars: A Literary’ History’, Wesleyan University Press,
Middletown, CT (201 1).
[2] Von Braun, W. The Mars Project (Das Mars Projekt), University of Illinois Press,
Urbana, IL. (1962).
[3] http://historv.nasa.gov/sei.htm
[4] NASA. The Vision for Space Exploration, at
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/55583main vision space exploration2.pdf (February
2004).
[5] Gage, D. W. “Humans to Mars: Stay Longer, Go Sooner, Prepare Now,” Journal
of the Washington Academy of Sciences, Volume 99, Number 3 (Fall 201 3), pp. 1-
24.
[6] http://www.marssocietv.org/
[7] http://www.exploremars.org/
[8] http://www. ipl.nasa. gov/video/index. php?id=l 090
[9] Rapp, D. and J. Andringa. “Design Reference Missions for Human Exploration of
Mars,” Jet Propulsion Lab Report D-31340, also presented at International Space
Development Conference, Arlington, Virginia (May 2005).
[10] NASA. Human Exploration of Mars Design Reference Architecture 5.0, at
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/373665main NASA-SP-2009-566.pdf (2009).
[11] Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee. “Seeking a Human
Spaceflight Program Worthy of a Great Nation” at
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/617036main 396093main HSF Cmte FinalReport.pdf
(2010).
[12] Granvik, M., R. Jedicke, B. Bolin, M. Chyba, G. Patterson, and G. Picot. “Earth’s
Temporarily-Captured Natural Satellites — The First Step on the Ladder to
Asteroid Resources,” to be published in Asteroids: Prospective Energy and
Material Resources. Springer- Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg (2013).
Washington Academy of Sciences
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[13] Tito, D. “The Spaceship to Everywhere” at
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dennis-tito/the-space-ship-to-
everywh b 4966782.html (03/14/2014).
[14] http://www.inspirationmars.org/
[15] Bergin, C. “Lawmakers discuss potential Mars flyby mission in 2021” at
http://www.nasaspaceflight.eom/2014/02/lawmakers-potential-mars-flvbv-
mission-2021/ (February 28, 2014).
[16] USHR Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. “Full Committee Flearing
— Mars Flyby 2021 : The First Deep Space Mission for the Orion and Space
Launch System?” at http://science.house.gov/hearing/full-committee-hearing-
mars-flvbv-2021-First-deep-space-mission-orion-and-space-launch (February 27,
2014).
[17] Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hearing, “Priorities,
Plans, and Progress of the Nation’s Space Program,” (March 7, 2012). In opening
remarks. Senator Nelson of Florida celebrated spending $400M in 8 months of
2012 on Kennedy Space Center facilities upgrades; Senator Hutchinson of Texas
expressed concern that commercial crew not come at the expense of the NASA
employee sector (critical workforce and skills). Online at
http://www. commerce. senate. gov/public/index. cfm?p=Hearings&ContentRecord i
d=a2593bd3-8859-4e7d-869d-7e670a654664&ContentTvpe id= 1 4f995b9-dfa5-
407a-9d35-56cc7 1 52a7ed&Group id=a06730c4-d875-4fde-97db-
9e2be61 1840e&YearDisplav=2012
[18] U.S. Government Accountability Office, Report to Congressional Committees.
“NASA Assessment of Selected Large-Scale Projects” at
http://www.gao.gov/assets/670/662571 .pdf (April 2014).
[19] http://www. youtube. com/watch?v=9ZDkItO-Oa4
[20] Grondin, Y.-A. “Musk lays out plans for reusability of the Falcon 9 rocket” at
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2013/10/musk-plans-reusabilitv-falcon-9-rocket/
(October 3, 2013).
[21] Federal Aviation Administration. “Draft Environmental Assessment for Issuing an
Experimental Permit to SpaceX for Operation of the Dragonfly Vehicle at the
McGregor Test Site, McGregor, Texas” at
http://www.faa.gov/about/office org/headquarters offices/ast/media/20140513 Dr
agonFly DraftEA(Public).pdf (May 2014).
[22] Belluscio, A. G. “SpaceX advances drive for Mars rocket via Raptor power” at
http://www.nasaspaceflight.eom/2014/03/spacex-advances-drive-mars-rocket-
raptor-power/ (March 7, 2014).
[23] Spacex engines - wikipedia
[24] Shottwell, Gwynne, interviewed on Thespaceshow, at
http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com/20 1 4/03/2 1 /gwynne-shotwell-fr idav-3-2 1-14/
(March 21, 2014).
[25] Dinkin, S. “A new price point to orbit” at
http://www.thespacereview.eom/article/2475/l (March 24, 2014).
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O’Toole, J. “Elon Musk’s fortune swells by $2.9 billion as Tesla, SolarCity surge”
at http://monev.cnn.com/2Q 1 3/05/28/investing/elon-musk/ (May 28, 2013).
[26]
[27] Musk, E. Tweet of 6 June 2013, quoted in Chatko, M., “Since You Can’t Buy
Stock in SpaceX...” at http://www.fool.eom/investing/general/2013/06/l 1/since-
vou-cant-buv-stock-in-spacex.aspx (June 11, 1013).
[28] Coppinger, R. “Huge Mars Colony Eyed by SpaceX Founder Elon Musk” at
http://www.space.com/ 1 8596-mars-colonv-spacex-elon-musk.html (November 23,
2012).
[29] Zubrin, R. The Case for Mars, Simon & Schuster, New York, NY (1996).
[30] NASA. The Mars Surface Reference Mission: A Description of Human and
Robotic Surface Activities, NASA TP-200 1-209371, NASA Johnson Space
Center, Houston, Texas (2001).
[31] http://www.mars-one.com/
[32] Robinson, K. S. Red Mars, Bantam Books, New York, NY (1993).
[33] Robinson, K. S. Green Bantam Books, New York, NY (1994).
[34] Robinson, K. S. Blue Mars, Bantam Books, New York, NY (1996).
[35] Rick Tumlinson talk at the ExploreMars - Humans 2 Mars 2014 conference,
approximately 1 :40:00 into the video, at
http://new.livestream.com/viewnow/exploremars/videos/48779962 (April 2014).
[36] http://www.mars-one.com/technologv
[37] http://marshome.org/documents.php
[38] McConaghy, T. Troy, James M. Longuski, and Dennis V. Byrnes. “Analysis of a
Broad Class of Earth-Mars Cycler Trajectories.” American Institute of Aeronautics
and Astronautics. Paper 2002^420 (2002).
[39] Landau, Damon F., James M. Longuski, and Buzz Aldrin. “Continuous Mars
Habitation with a Limited Number of Cycler Vehicles.” Journal of the British
Interplanetary Society 60 (4): 122 (April 2007).
Bio
Douglas Gage is an independent technology consultant based in
Arlington, Virginia. After working in robotics and communications for
many years at the Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center (SPAWAR
Systems Center) San Diego, he served from 2000 to 2004 as a Program
Manager at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA),
where he managed programs in robotic software. He has since consulted
for NASA and DARPA, and has presented Mars-focused papers at the
International Space Development Conference (ISDC), Mars Society
conventions, and other venues.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Essay
Science, Technology, Knowledge-Based Innovation:
Too Much of a Good Thing?
Ron W. Coan
Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness, Arlington, Virginia
Abstract
State and local governments are embracing innovation derived from
science and technology as a powerful economic development driver. In
the United States, there is scarcely a governor or mayor of a large city
whose platform does not have as its centerpiece the concept of
innovation. The current fascination with innovation — and related
concepts such as “knowledge-based economics” — has almost
achieved paradigmatic status with an ideological tendency. In looking
at innovation-based economic development and its utility as a short-
term state and sub-state economic development strategy, this essay
highlights the deficiencies of innovation policy and questions whether
it is “up to the task.” The author posits that government has assumed a
role leading innovation programs along with non-profit institutions,
that it has substituted itself for traditional private sector, finn
innovation. Also, Coan fears that such innovation programs will yield
little in terms of short- and intermediate-term economic development.
Worse, he fears that innovation’s creative destruction can create
potential but serious political instability which, presently, is almost
completely ignored.
Introduction
Innovation! One cannot even ride the Washington, D.C. Metro without
seeing the word in at least one, often several, advertisements. Newspapers
and the internet are jammed with references to “Innovation.” Derivatives
of innovation, such as creativity, knowledge-based, and entrepreneurialism
are referenced all over the place also.
My expertise is public policy, especially American state and sub-
state economic development, and innovation in its various forms has
slammed into state and urban public policy to such a degree one wonders
if there is any room left for other public policy initiatives. Innovation (and
its derivatives) seems the only magic bullet solution to our current jobless
recovery, and obvious wage stagnation. In a recent report, for instance, the
Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)
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asserts the need for the nations of the world to adopt a strategy of
“strengthening innovation” as a principal element in promoting a
sustainable recovery, earnings growth, job creation, reducing income
inequality, and combating poverty.* Among its suggestions is to establish
a national innovation agency to pursue, coordinate and implement a
national innovation policy.
We have been stressing innovation as a dominant public policy
strategy for a decade, maybe more. Innovation has dominated state
government economic development at least since the Great Recession. The
problem is that innovation does not seem to be working all that well thus
far. What gives?
I fear we are in an “innovation policy bubble” that has somehow
saturated politics, public policy, and various specialized professional
cultures (education and economics, in particular) and now threatens to
engulf the advertising world and media journalism.
To me, the issue is not whether innovation exists; or is powerful —
the answer regarding both, its existence and power, is yes. I have two
issues, however, concerning our present day innovation policy culture
which I will discuss in this essay.
First: Are we taking a good thing too far, setting us all up for
failure and disappointment? And if so, how so?
Have we added too many bells and whistles which may confuse or even
distort innovation’s character and evolution?
In the same vein, are we increasingly assuming too much of a utopia-like,
semi-inevitable, kind of science fiction-like future? This inliibits our
ability to identify deficiencies and weaknesses arising from an innovation
policy.
Also, have we “homogenized” or collapsed the complexities of iimovation
and knowledge-based economics into a monolithic, where all forms of
innovation produce identical wonderful results and consequences? There
is “no bad” innovation; it’s “all good.”
Why can’t some types of innovation produce different results, or varying
rates of change/results different from other forms of innovation?
If innovation comes in phases or waves, why are all phases or waves of
innovation alike?
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Secondly: Is innovation the only concept ever conceptualized
which includes NO negative features or side effects? By over
glamorizing innovation and knowledge-based economics, we may
more easily ignore or depreciate the possibility that innovation and
knowledge-based economics can compound serious social,
political and economic problems, such as a jobless recovery, wage
and income inequality, and even overall system stability. Why is
all change unleashed through innovation invariably benevolent?
This essay is an attempt to step back a moment and ask some
simple questions about innovation and its derivative concepts. I will rely
on short precis-like summaries of several key recent works to help answer
some questions and hopefully generate thoughts, observations, and further
questions from the reader.
The Schumpeterian Approach to Innovation
The first question to ask is: Where did this innovation “thing”
come from? I won’t go back to the Garden of Eden or call upon “ancient
aliens,” but instead turn to one of innovation’s principal godfathers,
Joseph Schumpeter. Schumpeter, writing in the midst of World War II,
believed the innovative corporation to be the source of capitalism’s growth
— a growth characterized by disruptive, but transformative change, which
in the end would create significantly greater economic prosperity and
individual well-being than any other economic system. Capitalism would
create economic growth and prosperity through innovation. Innovation,
new technology, process change and productivity enhancements in the
hands of a risk-taking entrepreneur with a disruptive business
plan/corporate strategy would generate new jobs and prosperity for society
over time. Schumpeter’s belief that innovation was the “engine of
capitalism” and the best creator of economic growth, prepared the ground
for such concepts as, “entrepreneurship,” “corporate strategy,” “innovation
and knowledge-based economics,” as well as “creative destruction.”
Robert Heilbroner in his time-honored seventh edition text. The Worldly
Philosophers, labels our era as the “age of Schumpeter.”
Schumpeter advocated bottom-up, firm-based, micro-economic
innovation by risk-taking entrepreneurs. Firms, led by entrepreneurs
willing to take risks, would “innovate” and substitute new production
factors, business plans, corporate strategies, and/or utilize technologies in
new ways. This innovation by risk-taking firms and entrepreneurs, if
successful, would yield increased profits, new markets, and eventually job
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growth as well as brand new industries and sectors. Prosperity would
follow.
However, there was a fly in the ointment. Innovation would
ultimately destroy obsolete jobs, firms, technologies, processes and
strategies. Innovation would create a new economy by destroying the
older one. This is Schumpeter’s most famous conceptual creation:
“creative destruction.”
Creative destruction plays out in microeconomics as follows:
Innovative firms will, in so many words, crush or disrupt older
conventional firms (and jobs). The traditional firms will suffer from less
revenues and higher costs eventually resulting in loss of market share and
profitability, job loss, and eventual bankruptcy. And so, creativity and
innovation by risk-taking firms and entrepreneurs raises profitability and
market share of the disrupters and destroys the firms and jobs which are
disrupted. Over time, more jobs— often in entirely new industries— will, it
is believed, create sufficient jobs to replace those lost, and will also yield
greater overall prosperity and jobs to the economy as a whole. This is the
engine which propels the capitalist system and elevates capitalism to the
economic system that can best promote growth and prosperity. It is a
fragile system, however, as I shall discuss later.
This Schumpeterian framework was the launching pad for
innovation and knowledge-based economics which — between 1950 and
1 990 — was advanced by Solow, Lucas, Romer, and Krugman to create a
sub-field of economics, innovation-knowledge-based economics. From
that sub-field would flow a flood of derivative innovation concepts, and a
literature deluge. It is a deluge so large that even Noah’s-Russell Crowe’ s-
ark would surely sink if it attempted to bring on board only two books on
each topic-area.
I can’t begin to discuss the literature deluge that followed, so we
will ask a second question instead: Are today’s more influential
innovation approaches still following Schumpeter ’s model?
Schumpeter is His Own Dinosaur
The simple and quick answer to this last question is that many
influential and highly-publicized contemporary versions of innovation and
its derivatives have departed from Schumpeter in significant ways.
Schumpeter saw innovation as “capitalistic,” a function of private
firms and business, and innovation was the “engine of a capitalist
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economic system.” The core departure is that today’s innovation models
usually call for a large injection of some form of government action,
regulation and certainly resources. If the previously-cited OECD 2012
report is representative, then innovation has morphed to become a national
public policy implemented by a national agency according to a national
plan. This is not Schumpeter. In much of today’s innovation framework,
capitalistic firms are the tail to the government dog — if they are
mentioned at all. Today, innovation is often led by government and can be
facilitated (a euphemism for created) by government.
A second departure from Schumpeter relates to his reliance upon
entrepreneurial risk-taking. If innovation is to occur at all for Schumpeter,
it means risk-taking (and failure) by an entrepreneur acting on an
innovation “idea” of some sort. Today’s innovation model stresses “the
idea” and it tasks government (and educational institutions and non-
profits) to reduce the risk by facilitating the entrepreneur’s ability to
achieve the idea. That raises the question, From where do the ideas flow?
The answer is “Creativity”?
Creativity arises from Knowledge! And from where does
Knowledge come, you ask? Education. Increase the general level of
education in society and you increase society’s knowledge base from
which new ideas can be generated. In addition, education can impart the
“skills” necessary to create a workforce for the new jobs created by the
new ideas. Education and the minimization of Entrepreneurial Risk have
therefore become key economic development polices in the contemporary
innovation economy. The “entrepreneurial idea” has replaced the profit-
making firm. This expectation that government and education will fulfill
certain roles has almost eliminated the dynamics of personal and corporate
greed from current innovation scenarios. Innovation is now pretty and
benign.
The third departure from Schumpeter is the ignoring of the
destructive component of creative destruction. In the contemporary
innovation economy, innovative jobs flow immediately from new ideas
developed and pursued by innovative entrepreneurs. Lost in this mix are
the firms, occupations, and jobs which are destroyed by these new ideas.
Schumpeter and innovation advocates assert that new innovative jobs will
eventually outnumber those jobs lost — and the new jobs will pay more
and be more productive. However, the “when” of all this was never very
specific.
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Schumpeter was very concerned that the gap between destroyed
jobs and new jobs replacing them in sufficient numbers meant the socio-
political system would be under considerable short-term pressure — and
in danger of being transformed into another governmental system such as
socialism or fascism (state capitalism). This concern was Schumpeter’s
reason for writing Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy^ and it
consumed most of the book. The cause of system instability was firm
destruction and job loss combined with a near-term inability to deliver
immediate economic growth. The traditional and long-standing culprit
most-cited as the cause of this near-term instability was automation
(productivity) caused by technological or process change. Politics could
not easily absorb the short-term disruption caused by creative destruction.
Schumpeter was not alone in his concerns with innovation.
Economic commentators previous to Schumpeter dovetailed reasonably
well with his notion of creative destruction. These literatures always
expressed concern that at least some forms of innovation would result in
job destruction and firm death.
However, this fear is nowhere to be found in our contemporary
innovation literature. Recent innovation literature, while not denying
short-term job destruction, focuses almost exclusively on “it will all
workout for the besf ’ long-term approach— a wonderful future will, almost
inevitably, appear through innovation. It is assumed that any destructive
consequence of creative destruction usually be relegated, or left by default,
to be addressed by other public policy areas— notably social programs,
economic stabilization/stimulus, and more recently wage stimulus such as
minimum wage increases, and other academic disciplines should figure it
all out (such as sociology).
These three departures from Schumpeter suggest to me a few more
questions.
The next question posed is: What are some representative forms
or models of contemporary innovation that we can use to judge the
veracity/status of the three above departures from Schumpeter, while also
acquiring some sense of where this innovation literature is currently
moving? In the next section, I will briefly outline four important
examples/approaches found in the contemporary innovation policy debate.
Examples of Contemporary Innovation Policies
The first example describes how innovation can be “created” or
“managed” and should be considered as a sort of “best practices” or
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benchmark. Microsoft’s New England Research Development Center (on
Boston’s Charles River) recently conducted a series of workshops and
business programs aimed at young entrepreneurs. Selected entrepreneurs
who had won a business plan competition funded by the National
Collegiate Inventors and Innovator’s Alliance (a nonprofit that encourages
entrepreneurship) assembled in the Center’s “Venture Lab” to undergo a
five-day boot camp. Each member of the twenty-one teams was employed
by an existing early-stage business that had been awarded “technological
innovation funding” and had outlined a potential market for a good idea.
The workshop was intended to turn these ideas into “better commercial
propositions.”'^
As described, this is “shared” creativity/ideas enhanced through an
entrepreneurial team experience which educates the entrepreneur in key
skills and talents — and most importantly shapes and refines the ideas so
that the chances of failure are drastically reduced. Ideas are cradled in
supportive firms, nurtured through financing and accessible expertise by
benevolent non-profits and universities. There is little Thomas Edison in
all this (or Steve Jobs for that matter) — nor is there much risk-taking.
The firm is non-existent. The idea is all-important.
A second example draws upon a derivative approach to innovation
which emphasizes talent and creativity as the font for innovation. In this
approach, creativity becomes the driver of innovation. Creativity breeds
disruptive ideas from which innovation results. However, creativity in this
perspective is much less economic, less profit-seeking, certainly less risk-
taking, and almost anti -organizational. Innovation is now more of a
vehicle for individual and social empowerment, Maslowian self-
actualization, if not simple human happiness. This redefinition or
reorientation of innovation downplays the economic and infuses it with a
sociological-purpose: a lifestyle, a creative class, and an almost
philosophical purpose as well.
To describe this approach, we turn to Richard Florida. For Florida,
“people love to do creative work” and the “opportunity to engage their
creative faculties. The best part of this equation is that the kind of work
people love is also the work that leads to prosperity.
Innovation doesn’t come magically from an invisible hand.
As ... Paul Romer has long argued, great advances have
always sprung from ideas. Ideas don’t fall from the sky;
they come from people. People write the software. People
design the products. People start the new businesses.
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People ereate the music and images that come streaming at
us out of devices that other people create. Every new thing
that gives us convenience, or pleasure, or productivity [is
the result of] a tremendous unleashing of human creativity
... Perhaps the most incredible thing about the creative age
is that it holds the possibility not only for economic growth
and prosperity, but also for a much fuller development of
human potential.^
A third example of an evolved approach to innovation is Enrico
Moretti’s book The New Geography of JobsJ Moretti summarizes in a
subsequent article that only two groups of American cities are doing well
since the Great Recession: (1) The first group includes cities endowed
with a large number of highly educated workers and innovative employees
(San Jose, San Francisco, Seattle, Austin, Raleigh, Washington, D.C. and
Minneapolis), and (2) A second group in areas endowed with oil and gas
resources which are thriving due to technological innovations such as
“fracking,” horizontal drilling and computer-based seismic imaging. To
Moretti, both of these groups of rising cities owe their growth through
innovation, but they constitute two distinct types of innovation growth.
The first group, with the best economic multiplier is America’s
“brain hub” which has been growing for three decades. The second group
of cities will decline whenever the price of oil declines. Why will the brain
hub win out over a potential transfonnative energy revolution? Because,
Moretti asserts...
Since 1980 data show that the economic success of a city
has been increasingly defined by its number of highly
educated workers. Cities with many co//eg^-educated
workers and innovative employers started attracting more
of the same, and cities with a less educated workforce and
less innovative employers — such as traditional
manufacturing — started losing groups ... Once a city
spawns some innovative companies, its ecosystem changes
in ways that make it even more attractive to others ... Using
data on nine million workers in 320 metropolitan areas,
(Moretti) found that for each new innovation-job in a city,
five additional jobs are created ... Most industries have a
multiplier effect. But none has a bigger one than the
innovation sector ... Clearly the best way for a city or state
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to generate jobs for everyone is to attract innovative
companies that hire highly educated workers.
So there you have it: the best economic development strategy for a
city is to attract innovative firms that hire higher educated workers. In this
model, innovation itself creates further innovation — to such an extent
that convergence between geographic regions (and groups of people) may
be exceedingly difficult. There also is a “good” form of innovation
through knowledge and a “bad” fonii of innovation through new
technology and market price. It appears the former innovates tlirough
mental innovation (good), while the latter uses brawn and price
competitiveness {i.e., capitalism) (bad). Moretti’s approach is closely
associated with a knowledge-based economics perspective.
A final and popular example of contemporary innovation is
Jeremy Rifkin’s The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things,
the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism. Rifkin sees a
world in which innovation and machines will return us to the Marxian
garden of paradise. In his world, the machines will be self-perpetuating,
powered by alternative energy and artificial intelligence — a sustainable
green nirvana. Machines will require little to no human interaction or
guidance; a benevolent aggregate “Hal” will operate our economy. Rifkin
believes that in this world, capitalism will destroy itself and private
property will become meaningless. If you want more, or something else,
the machine will make it for free, or almost free, and something close to
universal materialism will result. In materialism’s place, a new and
empowering, rewarding communitarianism will emerge and dominate —
destroying any remnants of individualism and capitalism. Work will be
gone — there is no need for it (except for a few poor souls who will serve
the needs of the machines). Freed from materialism and individualism,
people will gravitate to what really matters — collaborating and
empathizing with other people.
Through Rifkin, we can see that some contemporary approaches to
innovation lose any sense of creative destruction. Just the opposite!
Innovation has become a path into a new age. Rifkin, a Marxist, exposes a
tendency of many innovation adherents — venturing toward “new ages,”
with “inevitability” of the new age at least implied. This “new age”
innovation literature reflects a momentum that seemingly is gathering
increasing steam every day. Delivery by drones, driverless cars, computers
operating robots, an “app” for everything, and most of all artificial
intelligence epitomized by the IBM computer Watson beating Jeopardy’s
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human competitors. Fear not. It is “all good.” Machines will create our
utopia.
And Now, Our Next Question
So, our next question asks: If innovation is thrusting us into a
new age, leaving creative destruction in the dust bin of history, what is
this new age likely to look like? For a glimpse into this new age, I turn to
Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee (“B-&-A”). Their book, The
Second Machine Age: Work, Progress and Prosperity in a Time of
Brilliant Technologies,^ mcludQs among its concerns the appropriateness
of innovation as a public policy.
The authors posit that we are entering a second machine age. An
important characteristic of this second machine age is that increasingly
technology will be created which itself possesses the capacity to create
technology. Technology will create new technologies. Artificial
intelligence is the obvious example, but other forms of technology serve as
platforms from which other technologies develop. Driverless cars, Watson
and Jeopardy, robots, drones, and Google glass are only the beginning.
B-&-A’s view of innovation’s future falls almost into the realm of science
fiction — except that it is very real and very likely to be gathering
momentum.
Another obvious technology— innovation that “keeps on creating”
is the internet, which B-&-A describe as:
a general purpose technology (GPT) whose effects cut
across almost all sectors of the economy ... But digital
technologies differ from (the past) mechanical ones in a
profound way: their ability to scale and improve at a
breakneck speed. Unlike the steam engine, digital tech
continues to improve at a remarkably rapid exponential
pace ... creating even more opportunities for combinational
innovation.'^
In this second machine age, innovation is a rocket which has just
taken off and it ain’t about to stop! In page after page, B-&-A talk about a
ton of companies and a deluge of technologies — and refer to the
“digitalization of everything.” Hang on! The ride is just starting.
B-&-A do acknowledge that this good stuff does create disruption.
But their prescription for this disruption is sheer human adaptation. We’ve
got to learn to deal with it. The authors bring up several by-products of our
fast-moving incessant innovation: structural unemployment, inequality
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and “the tendency of technology to create winner-takes-all markets,” i.e.,
its proneness to evolve into oligopolistic or monopolistic capitalism. They
identify a number of other risks as we rocket into innovation’s future.
They acknowledge that cascading technologies which interweave across
different innovation platforms can, if they go wrong, result in massive
inadvertent dislocations which make the stock market’s “flash crash” seem
like a walk in the park. They wonder if there are downsides to the
“celebrity-entrepreneur” culture which is sure to be a large part of future
innovation — and given Lady Gaga-like entrepreneurism that seems a
reasonable fear. They further acknowledge that privacy issues come front
and center stage of public policy (the book was written pre Snowden). B-
&-A certainly do not ignore innovation’s potential downsides — and that
is to their credit, in my opinion.
Also, B-&-A focus on evil empires and misuse of technology by
dictatorial political systems. They leave their reader, at least this one, with
the fear that government and the private sector will have available
resources at their beck and command which make Animal Farm^^ look
like a summer resort. B-&-A do not question the likelihood that future
innovations will leave large numbers of us behind. To this last
consequence, they charmingly call for future innovation in the use of
human capital. As one “unit” in this human capital thing, the author is left
a bit unsettled by the prospect of waiting for “good intentioned
technology” to bail him out. Not all are so hesitant. Steven Pearlstein, in a
fairly sympathetic review of the Second Machine Age, asserts B-&-A’s
position on jobs and job growth is that;
the increased ‘bounty’ that technology creates will simply
shift demand to different kinds of work, as it always has.
Yes, there will be fewer credit analysts and package
handlers, but there will be greater demand for high level
programmers and special needs teachers. The transition,
they suggest, could be made smoother if our education
system were reoriented from its industrial-era focus on
math and reading to a broader set of personal and
intellectual skills necessary for working alongside the smart
new machines.
I understand that something is lost and something is gained — but I don’t
want to be a programmer or a special needs teacher. Don 7 / have any say
in this matter? I think Fd be a terrible special ed teacher!
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Are people and our social and government institutions so
competent and flexible that we can assume, or simply assert that they will
or must adapt to new technologies, choices and priorities? Can society and
government just turn on a dime as one innovation pours out innovation
after innovation — forever? Maybe I am being unfair, but does it seem
like advocates of innovation are very, very optimistic. For them innovation
futures are heaven-like and innovation itself will innovate solutions to
whatever problems innovation may inadvertently create. But if this
innovation thing is too good to be true, why should we be so blase about
potential disruptions and transitory time gaps needed to adjust to
innovation? Schumpeter — who’s he?
So let’s focus our next question on the one innovation tenet that
has not gone unquestioned over the last century: Does innovation
automatically and inevitably create sufficient jobs in reasonable time
frames to replace the jobs it destroys? A derivative of this question
ponders whether innovation can play a substantial role in our recently
perceived problem of economic and social inequality?
Innovation, Job Creation and Inequality?
In the world of Venn diagrams, productivity and innovation are
two different circles, but the overlap between these two circles is
considerable, and these two concepts/circles very much overlap with a
third circle: job creation. Schumpeter, as we have suggested felt that these
circles lay in an uneasy tension with each other, and that, if not reconciled,
the tension could easily result in political and social transfomiation, i.e.,
system destabilization and system change.
John Maynard Keynes, previous to Schumpeter, in 1930 worried
about “technological unemployment.” Keynes said technological
unemployment is “unemployment that is due to our discovery of means of
economizing the use of labor (productivity in our current jargon)
outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labor.” Not to
worry, Keynes countered, “This is only a temporary phase of
maladjustment” — “in the long run mankind is solving its economic
problem. I would predict that the standard of life in progressive countries
one hundred years hence will be between four and eight times as high as it
is today.”'"^ Accordingly, Keynes correctly forecasted shorter work weeks
and increased leisure in the future.
Looking back over the past ninety years, Keynes was entirely
correct in his optimism. But in the nearly ninety years since, we have
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enjoyed a world war, a fifty-year cold war, de-colonialization, plenty of
system changes, global economic change, and who knows what else. Oh
yes, the internet. That’s a lot of short term to work through. Consider
Manpower CEO Jonas Prising’s observations in a recent Financial Times
interview:''"'
Question: Do you believe that technology and robots will reduce
the number of jobs globally?
Answer: I think there will be a very big impact of technology, in
particular for jobs that are more routine. I’m an optimist because I
think that just as in the past, jobs will be destroyed with the advent
of technological innovation, but at the same time new jobs have
been created. The difficult part is that sometimes these transitions
take a long time.
The problem for creative destruction, I suggest, is this “short term”
where innovation is disruptive and harmful, but the long term has not yet
sown its magic beneficence — after all, as Keynes once noted, “In the
long-run we are all dead.”'^
The next two authors we consider, Robert J. Gordon and Tyler
1 8
Cowen, address another concern regarding innovation. Both, in their
way, suggest that if there was a golden age of innovation, it may well be
over — or is at least slowing down significantly.
Gordon and Cowen suggest that innovation comes in waves and
that each wave can be dissimilar from other waves. In essence, all forms
of innovation are not alike. Different innovations can result in different
consequences. In particular, they wonder if each wave of innovation grows
jobs in equal rates and whether the current internet wave has petered out.
Also, looking at the first two waves of industrialization, these authors
suggest that the types of jobs created in the third wave are NOT similar to
those created by the preceding waves. Waves can create different types of
jobs and occupations, business models, and industries.
Let’s start with Robert Gordon. Gordon observes there was little
economic growth previous to 1750, suggesting that rapid progress over the
past 250 years could well be a unique episode. He further asserts that U.S.
per capita output achieved its fastest growth rate in the mid-20th century,
and has slowed down since. Since 1750, we have sequenced three
industrial revolutions [phases or waves]: (1) 1750-1830, steam engines,
cotton spinning and railroads, (2) 1870-1900, electricity, internal
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combustion engine, and running water with indoor plumbing, and (3)
1 960-late 1 990s computer and internet, dot com.
Invention since 2000 has centered on entertainment and
communication devices that are smaller and smarter — but do not
fundamentally change labor productivity or the standard of living in the
way that electric light, motor cars or indoor plumbing changed it. The first
two revolutions “percolated through the economy” for 1 00 years each, the
third slowed markedly after 1970. In essence, the automatic and inevitable
long-term replacement job creation of the third phase was shorter and less
robust. Whatever has followed in the post 2000 period has been next to
jobless.
Moreover, Gordon suggests that “future growth in real per capita
GNP as well as real consumption per capita for the bottom 99% of the
income distribution will be slower [than in the past]. Why? Gordon blames
six headwinds which will interfere with new job creation and growth in
per capital GNP:
a) the end of the “demographic dividend” — the one-time only
entrance of females into the labor force,
b) rising inequality indicated by declining rates of median per capita
income,
c) factor price equalization (foreign low wage competition, call
centers, outsourcing, and imports) stemming from the interplay
between globalization and the internet,
d) the twin educational problems of cost inflation in higher education
and poor secondary student performance explain the slippage in
U.S. population which has completed a college degree,
e) the consequences of environmental regulations and taxes,
f) the overhead of consumer and governmental debt.
In other words, innovation plays a serious role in the inequality
debate — Piketty'^ move over!
Gordon does not believe innovation will cease but, as Robert
Samuelson (of economics textbook fame — and, by the way, a student of
Schumpeter) in a Washington Post review suggests, future growth will be
stunted. Samuelson seems not to question Gordon’s observations, but
raises the concern that if Gordon is correct there may well be serious and
negative consequences on politics, public expectations, and system
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Stability. A politics of slow growth and scarcity raise the specter that the
* • *20
“pursuit of self-interest becomes more contentious and destructive.” In
Samuelson's mind, system instability can flow from innovation.
Writing in a similar vein as Gordon, but focusing less on
innovation than upon economic growth, Tyler Cowen posits that there are
two kinds of economic growth;"' (1) One can develop one’s own ideas
(knowledge-based innovation) and then transfer them into the
marketplace, the conventional Schumpeterian format — or — (2) Failing
this, one can copy someone else’s ideas and move them to places where
factor costs (labor, capital, demand) are favorable or abundant, and then,
sell the innovation-technology for less to those who have more through
exports. In a sense Cowen observes that innovation, over time, becomes
commoditized — or, said another way, each innovation has its own life-
cycle. An innovation life cycle implies that a single innovation is not
ehangeless; it can, in effect, mutate and move from good to harmful or
vice versa (nuclear power, for instance).
Over the last several decades, Cowen believes the latter type of
economic growth has predominated, and economic growth (as defined by
growth rates in output and median income) has declined over the last
several decades. Why? Because we have largely exhausted the ideas
already out there: the “low-hanging fruit,” so to speak, has pretty much
been already picked.
What does Cowen mean by low-hanging fruit? An example he uses
is the rise in education. It wasn’t so long ago (pre-baby boom), even in the
developed world, that until the relatively recent past, educational levels
were very, very low and all sorts of entrepreneurs, innovators and their
middlemen were being diverted to farms and factories. Now pretty much
everybody goes to some form of higher education (half of all young he
alleges go to college). We have gotten what we can out of education as a
source of innovation and entrepreneurs. In other words, there are limits to
this knowledge-based, innovation-triggered economic growth. From
Cowen we can legitimately ask if education can forever be a perpetual
innovation-creating machine.
Send the other half to college, the reader screams! Okay, says
Cowen, but most of these are going to be marginal students, and be very
expensive to educate. It’s worth trying, he concedes — but don’t expect
the old innovation rates to skyrocket. The easy gains from widespread
education are already booked. If there are going to be greater rates of
innovation through knowledge, they are likely to come from the emerging
Spring 2014
52
world — and that’s a mixed blessing at best for the U.S. Unless we can
allow foreign innovators to move here through immigration, they will
develop innovation in competitor nations.
For all practical purposes, we have exhausted the major
innovations of the industrial revolution. We spent the 1800s and 1900s
exploiting these innovations; we radically changed how we lived and
produced an affluence never seen previously. But since the 1970s or so,
revolutionary new technologies are more few and far between — and less
transformative, at least in temis of jobs, productivity, and economic
output.
Oh well, that’s silly you reply — what about B-&-A’s Second
Machine Agel Cowen agrees that innovation will continue, but all this
machine-based innovation, he observes, really doesn’t grow GNP and
does not seem to have done much for per capita incomes. Instead, we
seem to be waiting for the next round of really transformative innovations.
Further, Cowen asserts, “Although America produces plenty of
innovations, most are not geared toward significantly raising the average
standard of living. It seems we are coming up with ideas that benefit small
numbers of people, compared with the broad-based advances of earlier
decades.”^^
The old gray mare just ain’t what she used to be! If the reader
notices, neither Gordon nor Cowen would deny B-&-A’s Second Machine
Age — rather, they question the extent that innovation of this nature
produces sufficient jobs to maintain economic growth — and Samuelson
wonders, absent economic growth, should we fear political, social and
economic disruption?
Conclusion: Schumpeter’s Fear, Moykr’s Concern
We asked two questions in our opening paragraph: (J) Are w’e
pushing innovation too far as a public policy? (2) Are we ignoring
potentially bad side effects of innovation? This essay has included
commentary by noted researchers and commentators which suggest that
the answer to both questions is yes.
Schumpeter’s fear of system instability is clearly the most basic
and critical. Does the creative destruction which flows from innovation
potentially destabilize the social and political system? Schumpeter argues
that capitalism produces economic growth better than alternative
economic systems such as Marxism and state capitalism. But capitalism’s
“very success undermines the social institutions which protect it
Washington Academy of Sciences
53
[capitalism], and inevitably’ creates conditions in which it will not be
23
able to live and which strongly point to socialism as the heir apparent.”
A further dilemma for Schumpeter was that if one tempers the
negative effects of creative destruction, does one also tamper with the
positive eonsequences of ereative destruction? Doesn’t govermiient inhibit
the engine of capitalism — and if injected into creative destruction, won’t
the end result be harmful?
Creative destruetion, he senses, causes those who are negatively
affeeted to turn to government for some redress. Creative destruction
weakens the politieal and social support system upon which capitalism is
dependent. Schumpeter is, therefore, the first to admit there is a lag
between the benefits of innovation, creativity and the first-felt negative
consequences of the resulting job destruetion. The potential for the short-
term negative change of creative destruetion creates the preeonditions for
system transformation away from capitalism. Although Schumpeter
worries that creative destruction/ innovation may destroy the foundations
and social support of the capitalist system, much of the innovation
literature is not so obsessed. It is also worrisome that students of
Schumpeter, like Robert Samuelson, have identical concerns — but they
are relegated to the sidelines of the innovation dialogue.
My own sense is that the time gap between “felt negative
consequences” and “positive economic growth,” which obsessed
Schumpeter, is hardly a factor in current approaches. A rather boundless
optimism, even optimistie inevitability, instead charaeterizes current
influential approaches in the contemporary innovation discussion.
I also noted that while Schumpeter limited himself to the economie
sphere, some eurrent advoeates of innovation and knowledge-based
economics extend their benefits to the individual, personal empowerment
and lifestyle — a bell and whistle which really alters the concept in
fundamental ways. As noted, we have even reached a point where
prominent advocates project innovation into a second machine age and a
new hierarchy of cities based on brain, not brawn or pure price
competitiveness. And if there is any system transformation, it is positive.
In this vein, innovation and knowledge-based economics lead to their own
form of a heaven on earth.
Everything in my fiber suggests this belief is not warranted and is,
in fact, dangerous.
Spring 2014
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This essay writer wonders if all this isn’t too much of a good thing.
Innovation has morphed into a “way of living,” if not a “way of life.” In
the minds of its proponents it has crowded out all other ways in which
economic growth could occur. But has it prompted us to ignore the
negative consequences of innovation and a knowledge-based economy?
Does innovation possess a “dark side”? Could it be that in today’s
version of the Gilded Age, innovation is mirroring the role played by
social Darwinism as the legitimization for a meritocracy, in our case an
entrepreneurial elite based on the right kind of an education, at the right
school, studying the correct disciplines and taking a job in the correct
occupation in the most innovative sectors and industries? In this brave
new world, has Steve Jobs replaced Horatio Alger’s Ragged Dick as the
risk-taking hard-working opportunistic entrepreneur? Are innovation and
its obsession with education masking a society and popular-professional
culture with serious flaws, inequalities and failings?
Cowen and Gordon also raise questions as to whether innovation is
a monolithic process. Their analyses offer to me sufficient evidence to
warrant a belief that innovation — with its different phases, sectors and
platforms — does result in different effects, benefits, and costs compared
to other phases, sectors, or platforms. If so, why do we believe that all
forms of innovation necessarily produce jobs? Or produce sufficient jobs
to replace the number destroyed? Or produce jobs within a timely period?
And finally, there is Joel Mokyr. Mokyr does not agree with either
Cowen or Gordon, asserting they claim that technology “has produced all
the innovation it can produce.” I think this is a straw-man argument;
neither author makes that assertion — or even comes close. Low hanging
fruit (the expression used by Cowen) does not mean all imiovation for all
time is over. My interpretation of Gordon and Cowen is they question
whether we can assume that all technology and innovation exhibits the
same effects at the same rates. Implicitly, they draw our attention to the
time lag between “negative felt consequences” and actual job growth.
Cowen and Gordon correctly observe that whatever future technology and
innovation may or may not produce, technology and innovation is not
creating the jobs at the moment, and hasn’t for some time. Whether it will
do so in the future is, in my mind, not an inevitable fact — but a belief
Mokyr, however, does provide a new concern, a concern not
discussed in this essay, but a concern which offers a final thought for the
reader’s reflection. The purposes to which innovation are put, Mokyr
Washington Academy of Sciences
55
suggests, cannot be assumed to be inevitably good and noble — or even
competently applied. His last words in The Gifts of Athena are:^''
All this is not to suggest that the growth in useful
knowledge is leading us to a world of bliss ... Technology
makes people more powerful in exploiting nature, but how
and for what purpose is indeterminate. If the twentieth
century has shown us anything, it is that the capacity of
humans for intolerance, stupidity and selfishness has not
declined as their technological power has increased. As
Freud said {The Future of an Illusion) ‘While mankind has
made continual advances in its control over nature and may
be expected to make still greater ones, it is not possible to
establish with certainty that a similar advance has been
9 r
made m the management of human affairs.’
Notes
' OECD Economic Surveys; United States, June 2012.
■ Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, New York, NY: Harpers
and Brothers, 1942.
^ Robert Heilbroner, The Worldly Philosophers: The Lives, Times and Ideas of the Great
Economic Thinkers, 7* Edition, New York, NY: Touchtone Press, 1999.
Ian Sanders, “The Entrepreneurs,” Financial Times, September 6, 2012.
^ Richard Florida, The Flight of the Creative Class, New York, NY: HarperCollins, 2007.
p. 27.
^ Florida, p. 26.
^Enrico Moretti, The New Geography of Jobs, New York: Mariner Books, 2013;
Described in “Where the Good Jobs Are — And Why,” New York Times, September 1 8,
2013.
^ Jeremy Rifkin, The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the
Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism, Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave
Macmillan, 2014.
^ Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress and
Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, London, UK: W. W. Norton and Co.,
2014.
Gabriel Sanchez Zinny, “The Second Machine Age and Economic Development,”
Huffington Post, March 6, 2014.
" George Orwell, Animal Farm, London, UK: Seeker & Warburg, 1945.
Spring 2014
56
Steven Pearlstein, “The Second Machine Age by Erik Bynjolfsson and Andrew
McAfee,” Washington Post, January 17, 2014.
John Maynard Keynes, “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren,” in J. M.
Keynes, Essays in Persuasion, New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Co., 1930, pp. 358-373.
Keynes, op. cit., p. 3.
Financial Times, May 12, 2014.
John M. Keynes, A Tract on Monetary Reform, McMillan, London, 1923, p. 80.
Robert J. Gordon, Is U. S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the
Six Headwinds, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 18315,
August 2012.
1 8
Tyler Cowen, The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of
Modern History’, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better. New York, NY: Penguin
Group/Dutton, 2011.
Thomas Piketty is a modern-day economist who writes on income inequality. See
Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Translation from French by Arthur
Goldhammer, Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap/Harvard University Press, 2014.
Robert Samuelson, “The Great Reversal,” Washington Post, October 7, 2012
■' Review Blog: the Free Exchange, The Economist, January 27, 2011.
Tyler Cowen, “Innovation is Doing Little for Incomes,” New York Times, January 29,
2011.
Schumpeter, p. 61.
"" Joel Mokyr, The Gifts of Athena: Historical Origins of the Knowledge Economy.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002.
Mokyr, p. 297.
Bio
Dr. Ron Coan, CEcD, is a Research Fellow at the Center for
Regional Economic Competitiveness and editor/principal writer for the
Journal of Applied Economic Development published by the Council for
Community and Economic Research. Before retiring, Ron was CEO of the
Erie County Industrial Development Agency Group and the Dutchess
County Economic Development Corporation, and was on the Erie County
Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) board of directors. He also
served on the boards of the International Economic Development Council
and New York State Economic Development Council. He holds a PhD in
Political Science/Public Administration and has served on the faculties at
Truman College, Canisius College, Marist College, Johns Hopkins
University, and Anne Arundel Community College near Annapolis, Md.
Washington Academy of Sciences
57
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Book Review: Sun Above the Horizon, Reviewed by A. Hoffman
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Volume 100 Number 2 Summer 2014
Contents
Board of Discipline Editors ii
Editor’s Comments 5. Rood iii
Innovation Theory and the National Science Foundation’s National Robotics
Initiative Effort G. Anderson and D. Berleant 1
Book Review: Sun Above the Horizon, Reviewed by A. Hoffman 21
Banquet Presentation: A New Model for Health Care N. D. Barnard 23
Annual Award Banquet Photos and 2014 Awards Program 45
Membership Application 53
Instructions to Authors 54
Affiliated Institutions 55
Affiliated Societies and Delegates 56
ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington, D.C.
Summer 2014
Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences
Editor Sally A. Rood, PhD sallY.rood2@gmail.com
Board of Discipline Editors
The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences has an 11-
member Board of Discipline Editors representing many scientific and
technical fields. The members of the Board of Discipline Editors are
affiliated with a variety of scientific institutions in the Washington area
and beyond — government agencies such as the National Institute of
Standards and Technology (NIST); universities such as George Mason
University (GMU); and professional associations such as the Institute of
Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Editor’s Comments
This issue highlights the Washington Aeademy of Sciences’ annual
Awards Banquet which took place May 8, 2014 — including the list of
notable awardees, photos from the event, and the extremely informative
keynote speech by Dr. Neal Barnard who is doing groundbreaking
research on preventing diabetes and other now-common diseases through
the foods we eat.
As we know, prescriptions and surgery are typically viewed as
conventional therapy today, and diet and lifestyle changes are often
viewed as alternative medicine. Dr. Barnard is aiming to reverse these
notions of conventional and alternative medicine so that food is considered
the conventional approach rather than an alternative.
If you missed the Academy’s banquet this Spring, this is your
lucky day! You still have a chance to learn the details of Dr. Barnard’s
convincing message by reading his speech in this issue of the Journal. I’d
love to receive some feedback on this topic from our audience and readers.
Congratulations to the Academy’s 2014 award winners who were
honored at the awards ceremony: Debra Lee Kaiser, Jack Williams,
Marilyn A. Buford, Muhammad Arif, Ronald F. Boisvert, Eric Elster,
David Danner, and Jerri Anne Cupero. Please see page 52 for the
awards bestowed, and the preceding pages for photos.
Another forward-looking piece in this issue, “Innovation Theory
and the National Science Foundation’s National Robotics Initiative Effort”
by Gary Anderson and Daniel Berleant offers a useful thesis on the topic
of robotics innovation for supporting both demographic changes in aging
populations and overall economic development.
This issue of JWAS also features a review of the book Sun Above
the Horizon by WAS Emeritus Fellow Peter Varadi who discusses the
coming changes in the utility sector, a revolution in the making. Allan
Hoffman is our reviewer.
In short, this Journal issue is full of forward-looking messages,
offering much food for thought (pun intended)!
Sally A. Rood, PhD, Editor
Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences
sallv.rood2@gmail.com
Summer 2014
Washington Academy of Sciences
1
Innovation Theory and the National Robotics Initiative
Effort of the National Science Foundation
Gary Anderson and Daniel Berleant
University of Arkansas, Little Rock, Arkansas
Abstraet
Government research programs often support the advancement of
technologies with strategic commercial potential in order to enable
building industrial activity in new areas of technology. For example,
considerable current government research funding for co-robots, or
robots that interact with and help individuals, is motivated by the
projected needs of aging populations in industrialized nations.
Innovation theory offers one approach to analyzing government support
of research as an economic development strategy. Analysis can
improve understanding and support efforts to improve its effectiveness.
Therefore we analyze this technology policy strategy from the
perspective of technology innovation theory. In the United States, a
robotics roadmap document motivates the National Robotics Initiative,
which is a set of funding programs offered by multiple government
agencies. We find that some aspects of the NSF’s effort, and those of
other countries, accord well with insights provided by innovation
theory, while others less so, and that increased awareness of innovation
theory could help inform government technology policy in the U.S. and
elsewhere.
1. Introduction
Robotics has always inspired the vision of autonomous entities that
would create a seismic shift in economic productivity, increasing it
without obvious limit by providing labor at minimal cost. While at one
extreme this could make everyone rich, at the other it could throw much of
society out of work and into poverty. Regardless, Adam Smith’s invisible
hand suggests an inevitability to advances in robotics, if these advances
are technically feasible. The view that such advances are in fact feasible
has been buoyed by progress in robotics in the modern age.
There is a successful track record in industrial robots, the first
robotics area to make significant inroads into society. More recently,
robotic airplanes and other military robots have become increasingly
important. Currently, service robotics is becoming a major emerging focus
of robotics research in the belief that need will successfully drive technical
advances and commercial growth. Supporting this belief, sales figures in
Summer 2014
9
recent years indicate a foundational infrastructure of robotics production
that is vigorous enough to grow quickly to meet demands [1].
The prospect of promoting future economic development is often a
factor in motivating governments to invest in funding for research
programs. Thus, a number of national governments have identified
robotics as a key emerging economic growth area for which governmental
research and development support would be in the national interest. For
example the European Union [2], the Netherlands [3], Taiwan [4], Korea
[5], Japan [6], and the United States [7] all have produced strategic
documents analyzing prospects and providing guidance to national efforts.
The need for service robotics is exemplified by Japan’s JSTAR
report [6], which is motivated by demographic changes projected in Japan
that will make eldercare unprecedentedly important. Related in spirit to
Japan’s 1982-1992 ambitious Fifth Generation Computer Systems project
[8], this new project differs crucially in addressing a clearly defined
demographic need. Similar demographic changes are in fact projected to
occur in many developed nations in the years and decades ahead (Figure
1).
The U.S. created the National Robotics Initiative (NRI) in 201 1 to
support research and development of “co-robots,” robots that work
cooperatively with human partners [9]. Several government funding
agencies support the initiative. These include the National Science
Foundation (NSF), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(NASA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Department of
Agriculture (USDA). Although the overall goal of the Initiative is to
“accelerate the development and use of robots in the United States that
work beside, or cooperatively with, people” [9], each agency has its own
funding focus.
The NSF component of the NRI, like much of what the NSF does,
emphasizes basic research. The focus is on areas that have been identified
as potentially relevant to producing flexible and adaptable robots that
display significant intelligence. A large number of research problems were
identified as suitable for funding, consistent with the complexity of the
robotics field. Among these, the NSF solicitation adopts the
methodological approach of facilitating building better toolkits for
robotics developers [10]. In particular, it emphasizes the development of
open architectures with “common hardware and software platforms” and a
standard set of interfacing protocols. These tools will be available
worldwide. Along with this, the NSF proposes to make publicly available
Washington Academy of Sciences
3
a database of software, hardware, and tests that “citizen engineers” can
easily access.
40
Percent of the population over 65 years of age
1950
Japan
Itaiy
Germany
Korea
United Kingdom
United States
Vietnam
Burma
India
Honduras
South Africa
1975 2000
Year
2025
2050
Figure 1. Aging of population for selected countries [11].
Innovation, Innovation Theory, and National Robotics Policy
Government research typically assumes that imiovation is useful
for improving life in society. Yet there is a large body of work on
innovation that is usually not taken into account in designing these
research programs. To show the importance of this work, we examine the
National Robotics Initiative research grant solicitation of the National
Science Foundation [10] as an example. This is useful because using
innovation theory to better understand research funding programs may
ultimately prove useful in designing them to better meet the goal of
national economic development.
Innovation is defined in different ways by different fields, leading
to confusion over its meaning. The NSF views innovation as an integral
facet of its mission [12] and even has a Science of Science and Innovation
Policy funding program [13]. While the NSF uses the term quite broadly,
in the context of innovation theory an innovation can be better
Summer 2014
4
characterized as an invention that is implemented [14]. Such innovations
have three components:
1) a degree of originality, either in defining a problem or solving a
problem;
2) a solution appropriate to the problem; and
3) an implementation.
Therefore, in this article we use innovation to refer to an original idea that
solves a problem (an invention) that is implemented. An innovation can be
a product or process, and it can have measurable economic impact.
Why use Innovation Theory?
Economic growth depends significantly on the innovation rate of a
society [15]. Consequently, a motivation for the NRI initiative is
promotion of innovation in the U.S. in service robotics, in the belief that
innovations in this area can be accelerated enough to have a sizeable
economic benefit. Consistent with this, one goal of the NRI is to spur
innovation in the area of robot-human cooperation, or co-robotics.
Nevertheless, the NRI was created largely without reference to
innovation theory. It is based mostly on analyses found in A Roadmap for
US Robotics — From Internet to Robotics [7]. The Roadmap assesses the
prospects and opportunities for advancements in different sectors of the
robotics industry. There are two overarching themes in the report:
1 ) Demographic changes towards older populations in the developed
world are driving an increasingly urgent need for robotic devices.
2) Robotics are projected to be an important factor in the future
economic prosperity of the U.S. The report also notes explosive
recent growth in sales of service robots, in both the professional
and personal market segments.
The U.S. Roadmap was put together by a large number of robotics
specialists from academia, industry, and national laboratories. It was
greatly influenced by earlier works that it cites, notably the Office of the
Secretary of Defense Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap 2005-2030
[16] (updated for 2011-2036 [17]) and the WTEC Panel Report on
International Assessment of Research Development in Robotics [18]. This
represents a considerable accumulation of expertise in the field.
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On the other hand, many of the U.S. Roadmap participants had
vested interests in its recommendations. Since the roadmap was intended
as a path forward for U.S. funding for robotics research, there was a built-
in incentive for many participants to ensure that their areas of expertise
were well represented, rather than make fully impartial assessments or
proactively seek dramatically new directions. Nevertheless while
conventional wisdom can often predict near-term futures in existing
markets and research areas, it risks falling short in foreseeing new markets
and ways of doing things [19]. This tendency can be counteracted by
including experts in other relevant areas. For example, with aging
demographics seen as a driving force in expanding the service robotics
market, having gerontologists on a panel could provide a valuable
perspective on future needs for robots in homes and workplaces.
2. Innovation Theory and the NSF Initiative
Most R&D is used to solve specific problems [20]. While solving
specific incremental problems can be an important part of enhancing
technical capabilities, it is not in and of itself sufficient to realize the
economic benefits of disruptive new teclmologies [21], such as is foreseen
for co-robot commercialization in the U.S. Recognizing this, the
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
recommends a broad range of innovation strategies that include demand
side policies [22].
The innovation theory-based analysis of the NSF portion of the
NRI initiative presented here focuses on a demographic shift, the aging
population of the industrialized world. This aging problem is projected to
be less pronounced in the U.S. than in many other countries. Since
commercial activity tends to follow need, the need for co-robotics to assist
the elderly is expected to be more severe abroad than in the U.S., driving
the corresponding industry abroad more vigorously. This in turn suggests
that while the NSF toolkit-based strategy for funding basic co-robotics
research is likely to facilitate commercialization, demographic projections
will provide a greater incentive for foreign companies than to U.S.
companies to try to benefit. While this is a good thing overall, it is also
somewhat unanticipated and worth exploring. One way to do this is to
examine the situation through the lens of innovation theory [18]. Some
leading approaches to innovation theory are reviewed next.
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Evolutionary Theory of Innovation
The evolutionary theory of innovation is based on evolutionary
economics, explored for example by Verspagen [15]. In one version of
this theory, advances in technology are treated as random changes to what
currently exists. Economic growth is considered to be related to three
factors:
1) the standard deviation in the distribution of plant productivity,
considered a measure of how much innovation is occurring;
2) the savings rate; and
3) the speed of diffusion of ideas.
The NSF solicitation [11] clearly supports factors 2) and 3), for example
stating, “... for broad diffusion, access, and use (and hence, to achieve
societal impacts), co-robots must be relatively cheap, easy to use, and
available anywhere.” The solicitation also promotes diffusion of ideas,
saying that “Collaboration between academic, industry, non-profit and
other organizations is strongly encouraged ...”
A deeper understanding of diffusion can shed additional light.
Diffusion can take several forms [23]. The two forms most relevant to the
current discussion are diffusion within a market, and geographical
diffusion.
• Diffusion within a market. Innovation cannot be taken out of its
existing environment because advances occur based on what
currently is in place. Innovations that are viable in the marketplace
evolve as they diffuse within the market [20] [24] and are applied
to specific jobs [25]. It is the marketplace that decides whether an
innovation survives and how successful it becomes, and success
depends on many factors. These include luck and marketing,
besides the intrinsic strength of competing solutions. If an idea or
product can be copied, as is encouraged by the open architectures
advocated by the NSF, that will magnify the influence of the
collateral assets of a company {e.g. the sales force and marketing
operations, distribution channel strengths, and supplier
relationships) in determining who controls the market [26].
• Geographical diffusion. An important question is the degree to
which benefits of U.S. -based robotics research, which is the focus
of the NSF effort, will accrue to the U.S. robotics industry
compared to competing foreign industry. This cannot be known for
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sure ahead of time. However, another technology that began as a
relatively siloed scientific domain but then crossed disciplinary
boundaries, some of which provided commercial applications,
forms an exemplar of the model that the NRI appears to envision
for robotics. Leydesdorff and Rafols [23] found that siRNA (small
interfering ribonucleic acid) research provides such an exemplar.
Work on siRNA was performed at major universities in different
countries. Robotics research is also international. For example, the
major robotics conferences ICRA (International Conference on
Robotics and Automation) and IROS (International Conference on
Intelligent Robotics and Systems) are both explicitly
internationalized. According to Leydesdorff and Rafols [23],
siRNA research has been “fully globalized,” has “entered a phase
of commercialization,” and is “potentially useful to many
applications ...” The analogy with what the NRI and other nations’
funding programs hope for robotics is clear. If that analogy
continues to hold in the future, worthy research funded by NSF
will become known, accessible, and used by robotics researchers
and entrepreneurs around the globe.
Customer Centered Innovation
Customer centered innovation is based on the observation that
people buy and use products because they have a job they M>ant to get
done. This approach has been explored by e.g. Cliristenson and Raynor
[27] and Bettencourt and Ulwick [28]. New products are judged by how
well they do that job compared to current solutions [29]. Thus, innovations
cannot be effectively examined without taking account of the marketplace,
because competition among solutions determines what products survive
and succeed. Applying this general framework to robotics predicts that the
success or failure of the next generation of robots will be tied to the jobs
they will perfonn and the alternatives available for doing those jobs.
The NSF program does promote competition among alternative
solutions proposed by different researchers with its practice — typical of
NSF research programs — of competitive peer review. However it is
unclear how this process can effectively judge value independent of
market mechanisms, which automatically balance technical criteria with
all the other factors that are key in the marketplace such as cost, ease of
use, etc.
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Value Chain Evolution Theory
The value chain evolution theory approach considers the factors by
which customers choose products to be prioritized as follows: 1)
functionality, 2) reliability, 3) usability, 4) customization, and 5) price
[27], [30]. The NRI indicates that not even the first of these, robot
functionality, is good enough yet for the next generation of applications
[9].
The other end of the scale is when customers are fully satisfied
with the functionality, reliability, usability, and customization of a
product. At this point the technology is well understood, and price
becomes the deciding factor. Now the field becomes susceptible to
technologies that are disruptive due to lowered costs. One approach to
greatly reducing costs is to institute industry-wide standards that define a
technology. When appropriate standards exist, whether official or de facto,
some companies can focus on commoditizing individual components or
modules associated with a whole solution. The cost reductions enabled by
this commoditization can cause disruptive developments in the industry by
replacing the market for high-priced integrated systems made by a single
manufacturer with a market for lower-cost systems made by companies
that assemble commodity modules made by other companies.
A widely recognized example is the PC and laptop markets, where
manufacturers now mostly assemble commodity components purchased
from other companies. Another example is the Ethernet, a system
component the commoditization of which enabled its rapid diffusion as a
communications network solution into domains from PC networks to cell
phones [31]. A third example is the PCI Express bus, a component used in
personal computers [31]. Shifting back to the system level, a visit to any
home improvement store reveals that modern homes are now constructed
using a plethora of standardized commodity components ranging from
wooden 2x4s to doors, HVAC components, plasterboard wall panels,
electrical system parts, and so on.
The NSF solicitation promotes the eventual commoditization
process because of its explicit promotion of research that results in
toolkits, which can be used by other research groups and thus fonn de
facto preliminary proposals for standardization of components.
Three-Stage Technology Evolution Model
A three-stage technology evolution model, a model of how new
markets develop, is described by Abernathy and Utterback [24]. The first
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Stage is called i\\Q fluid phase, in which a large amount of experimentation
occurs to find the right technology and market approach. This is a phase
where market competition determines which strategies and technologies
survive and succeed. Research efforts associated with academic
institutions, like the NRI (including its NSF funding program), help
support the early stages of this phase. After a winning approach has been
determined by the marketplace, the next stage begins. This is the
transitiomil phase, which occurs when a market and technology are
understood well enough that standards can be set and productivity
increases. The final stage, called the specific phase, is where one
technology comes to dominate the market.
Remarks
Often academic researchers do not benefit directly from imiovation
and thus are not effectively incentivized to follow through with the
technology transfer of their scientific advances. One reason is that
academics often do not have the right skill set to commercialize research
breakthroughs, and these breakthroughs are generally not formulated in
the framework of commercially important jobs to be done. The specific
knowledge needed to translate an advance from R&D into a commercial
product is sticky, meaning only a few people have the specific knowledge
necessary to do so [32]. Forming the right partnerships is therefore crucial
in this process. Recognizing this, the NSF solicitation encourages
academia-industry partnerships. In addition, other NSF programs
encourage commercialization of research results, notably through
programs associated with the Industrial Innovation and Partnerships
Division (http://www.nsf.gov/div/index. isp?org=IIP).
3. Further Analysis
Let us focus next on understanding the NSF’s NRI solicitation with
respect to innovation theory from the standpoint of two key dimensions:
(1) the demographic changes that will increasingly drive the co-robot
marketplace, and (2) the NRI emphasis on open architectures.
A Demographic Driver of Robot Development
According to the Roadmap [7], a major driver of growth in the
demand for service robots is the aging of the world’s population,
especially in the developed world. Indeed, Figure 1 (shown earlier)
indicates that several countries are projected to have more than one quarter
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of their residents over age 65 by 2025. The NRI and its NSF solicitation
are consistent in indicating that the aging of the U.S. population is a major
force spawning the need for future robot applications. The aging issue has
implications for several sectors of the economy. First, an aging population
requires more health care [33]. Second, an aging population needs more
help in living independently. Traditionally, this is done by having family
members, day companions or healthcare workers provide assistance as
needed in elderly households. In the U.S., retirement communities are
popular because they provide help in meal preparation, cleaning,
transportation, and other endeavors. Figure 1 showed the specific
percentage of the population projected to be over 65 for various countries,
with numbers currently growing at rapid rates.
Another way of looking at demographic change is through the
support ratio, which is the number of working-age adults (age 20 to 64) for
every person of retirement age (65 or older). Most developed countries are
projected to experience dramatically declining support ratios between now
and 2050, with the OECD member country average declining to 3 around
2025 and 2.1 around 2050. The U.S. is slightly better off with a less severe
decline to 2.6 by 2050 [34]. The trend toward reduced numbers of workers
per retired person will necessarily have a major economic impact under
the traditional eldercare paradigm, but this could be mitigated by the
emergence of co-robots that perform eldercare work previously handled
by humans.
Because the U.S. will be less severely impacted by the graying of
its people, other countries will see these effects sooner. Figure 2 plots
projections of the inverse of the support ratio {i.e. the ratio of retirement
age people to those of working age) for several developed countries and
Figure 3 plots the same for the U.S. and several developing countries. This
ratio gives the same information as the support ratio, but helps visualize
the issue. Here, lower values are more desirable from an economic
standpoint. As can be seen, the U.S. is in better shape than many
developed countries. This advantage is projected to continue for the
foreseeable future. Indeed, the situation for the U.S. in 2050 is more
favorable than the situation for Japan even now (although the developing
countries are still better off in this regard than the U.S.).
The inverse support ratio trends suggest that other countries may
disproportionately reap the benefits of commercialization of assistive co-
robots for the elderly compared to the U.S. This is because innovations are
usually developed for lead users [35], who are among the first to benefit
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from solving problems that will eventually grow in importance to the rest
of society [22]. That process is enabled by the international character of
robotics research and, by analogy with siRNA technology [23] as
described earlier, its projected international commercial diffusion. Should
demographics drive expansion in the robotics industry, Japan will be a
leader in the industry as the first country to face the need, followed closely
by several European countries. The U.S. will lag demographically, and
due to the consequently relatively lower incentivization, perhaps trail in
the robot market segments driven by these demographic changes.
Inverse support ratio (1/Support ratio)
US vs. developed countries
0 8
Figure 2, Inverse support ratios (ratio of retirement age people to those of working age):
U.S. and selected other developed countries.
From Demographics to Niche Robotics Markets
Innovations often start out in niche markets [19], [36]. These new
inventions are then modified, improved and re-defmed as they move
through the marketplace [25]. Because niche markets are generally small,
the potential profit in a niche is often not initially enough to attract the
attention of large, established companies [19]. Thus, these small markets
are relatively protected, providing a small company the breathing room to
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develop the culture and values necessary to successfully compete. One
example of a robotics niche market that developed to meet demand is
robot lawn mowers. Europe is the leader in sales of such devices, while
the U.S. remains far behind. The reason for the demand in Europe is
thought to be the relatively high cost of landscaping services, while in the
U.S. the lower cost of such services has dampened demand [37].
Inverse support ratio (1/Support ratio)
US vs. developing countries
0 ^ :
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Figure 3. Inverse support ratios (ratio of retirement age people to those of working age):
U.S. and selected developing countries.
A small company develops collateral assets (such as supplier,
distribution, sales and marketing resources) as it supplies a new market.
With assistive co-robots for the elderly defining a niche that is expected to
provide even more opportunity for companies overseas than domestically,
foreign companies will be relatively more incentivized to lead in
colonizing the new markets. The collateral assets of some of these niche
companies will grow with the companies and allow them to establish
themselves as larger, mainstream, multinational companies as they mature
over time. These companies will then have the assets to fight off new
entrants [26] [30]. Exacerbating this problem for late entrant U.S. startups
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13
are language, cultural, relationship, and distance challenges for U.S.
companies entering European and Japanese markets.
Effect of Open Systems on the Robotics Industry
As noted earlier, the NSF funding program emphasizes
development of toolkits that support robot engineering. This strategy of
promoting an open systems approach also necessarily encourages
development of de facto standards for the robotics industry. On one level,
this strategy seems well designed for advancing the field generally, since
innovation tends to occur when there is recognition that the tools available
are capable of solving a pressing problem [38], [39]. However, the
Abernathy and Utterback model described above [24] suggests that this
focus may be premature because it will result in standards for the next
generation of robotics which have not yet experienced the fluid phase of
market competition to help determine them. It is thus not clear whether
standards that may result from the NSF funding process will be ideally
suited to future market demands.
Suppose we optimistically assume that good de facto standards do
result from the NSF emphasis on toolkits. Such standards for human-robot
systems may stimulate technological advances in the co-robot area
because the tools developed will be freely available worldwide. Market
forces will then likely determine where commercialized robotics
innovations occur.
A major market force is the demographics of aging populations.
This force favors Japan and Europe over the U.S. because Japan and
Europe will face the need for robots to help support aging populations
sooner than the U.S. faces this need. Innovation theory suggests that, with
more pronounced aging of their populations, those countries will have the
structural advantage over the U.S. of greater incentives for co-robot
development and commercialization, increasing the likelihood of
companies in these places being the first to commercialize robotics
technologies that address the market needs of aging populations. Thus the
open toolkit strategy could help the robotics industries in other countries
even more than the robotics industry in the U.S., although the goal of the
NRI is to accelerate robotics and its commercialization in the U.S. Of
course, even if foreign industry benefits, U.S. industry may also benefit,
thus satisfying the funding program’s goal. Overall, facilitating robotics
commercialization worldwide is a broadly positive thing.
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Concluding Thoughts and Recommendations
The NSF solicitation envisions the creation of flexible co-robot
systems that rival humans in their ability to adapt to situations they
encounter. The robots must not only be capable, but also “relatively cheap,
easy to use, and available anywhere” [11]. The goal is to accelerate the
development of robot systems that work cooperatively with people.
Given this vision, the NSF’s NRJ funding program does certain
things well from the viewpoint of innovation theory. One example is that
the envisioned open architectures and repositories of software and
hardware encourage the dissemination of information by making the tools
created under the solicitation available to a worldwide audience.
Another example is that the solicitation encourages collaboration
between industrial developers and researchers. This helps overcome the
problems of technology transfer, such as the common situation in which
no one person or organization has all the knowledge necessary to produce
a commercial solution to a problem.
A third example is that the NSF’s funding program encourages
competition among groups in solving certain problems, with the important
caveat that these are not problems defined by the marketplace.
Are there specific areas where the U.S. has an advantage over other
countries? One may be health care. While health care and eldercare
overlap substantially, they are far from identical. Figure 4 shows the
percent of average salaries and wages, adjusted for purchasing power
parity (PPP), currently spent on health care. The U.S. spends over 15% of
salaries, while the next closest country, Germany, spends below 11%. This
presents an environment in which U.S. companies have a relatively greater
incentive to take the lead in developing robots that reduce the costs of
health care, analogous to the demographic environment which incentivizes
industry in other countries to take the lead on eldercare co-robots as
explained earlier. Although the NSF solicitation does not address health
care directly, because the NSF as a whole does not address health care
directly, the National Institutes of Health also participates in the NRJ and
does target research funding for robotics related to health. One way the
NSF effort could potentially target the seeming U.S. structural advantage
in commercializing robotic applications in health care might be to
encourage development of toolkit architectures that recognize the
projected technical needs of health care robotics.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Figure 4. Health care expenditures (based on [40]).
Another area where the U.S. may have an advantage is in the
distribution of goods. Indeed, there are already startup companies in this
area, such as Kiva Systems. Part of the reason is salaries. Figure 5 shows
average annual wages, adjusted for PPP, for several developed countries.
The U.S. is over 21% higher than the next highest, the United Kingdom.
The high wages paid in the U.S. make labor-intensive industries such as
distribution potentially attractive areas for robot innovation. With respect
to distribution, there is already considerable interest in self-driving
vehicles, which makes distribution a particularly promising application.
The sectors of eldercare, health care, and distribution exemplify the
general observation that a shortage of plentiful, easily-available labor
favors development and deployment of substitutes such as co-robots. In
particular, eldercare and medical care are areas in which projected future
needs threaten to outstrip supply in developed nations. This paper
discusses the funding program example from the perspective of innovation
theory. This is an approach that has been underutilized for this purpose.
Further insights may be expected as innovation theory is applied to other
related analyses such as designing science and technology funding
programs in particular, and more broadly, technology policy at the
national level.
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60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Average Annual Wages, 2011 Purchasing
Power Parity (PPP) in US Dollars
United United Germany Korea Japan italy
States Kingdom
Figure 5. Wages, calibrated to purchasing power parity in U.S. dollars (from
http://stats.oecd. org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=AV AN WAGS').
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[34] “Old age support rate,” in Pensions at a Glance. Paris: OECD Publishing, 2011,
http://www.oecd.org/berlin/47570029.pdf. See also
www.oecd.org/els/social/pensions/PAG. See also “OECD pension indicators,” Mar.
2011, http://www.oecd.org/els/soc/oecdpensionsindicators.htm.
[35] von Hippel, E., Democratizing Innovation. Cambridge; The MIT Press, 2005.
[36] Moore, G. A., Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling Disruptive Products to
Mainstream Customers. HarperBusiness, 2002. See also A. Iskold, “Rethinking
^Crossing the Chasm,"' http://readwrite.eom/2007/08/06/rethinking crossing the chasm.
[37] Kinnander, O., “Robots replace gardeners as sales surge for auto-mowers,” The
Independent, Oct. 24, 2012, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/robots-
replace-gardeners-as-sales-surge-for-automowers-8223932.html.
[38] Klein, G., Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions. Cambridge; The MIT
Press, 1998.
[39] Weisberg, R. W., “Case studies of innovation: Ordinary thinking, extraordinary
outcomes,” in The International Handbook of Creativity, L.V. Shavinina, Oxford;
Elsevier, 2003, pp. 204-247.
[40] “OECD.StatExtracts,” Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development,
http://stats.oecd.org/, accessed Jan., 2013.
Summer 2014
20
Bios
Gary Anderson has worked in the field of robotics for the past
nineteen years. He is currently the chair of the Department of Systems
Engineering at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock.
Daniel Berleant works in the area of technology foresight. He
authored the book The Human Race to the Future: What Could Happen —
and What to Do. The 2014 edition is peer reviewed and approved for
science content by the Washington Academy of Sciences.
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Book Review
Sun Above the Horizon: Meteoric Rise of the Solar Industry by
Peter F. Varadi, Singapore: Pan Stanford Publishing. 2014. 548
pages
Reviewed by Allan Hoffman
Meteoric Rise of the Solar Industry
SUN ABOVE
THE HORIZON
Peter Varadi’s new book, Sun Above the Horizon^ is a unique and
valuable contribution to the history of solar energy authored by a true solar
energy pioneer. In 1973, he co-founded Solarex, one of the first two solar
cell (PV) companies in the U.S. focused on bringing PV down to earth for
terrestrial applications. Up until that point PV had been used only for
space applications where cost was of limited consideration.
Dr. Varadi is a long-time Fellow of the Washington Academy of
Sciences and his bio speaks for itself: He escaped from Hungary in 1956
and after a distinguished scientific career was appointed head of the
Communication Satellite Corporation’s (COMSAT) chemistry laboratory
in the U.S. in 1968, where he participated in research on solar cells used to
power COMSAT satellites. After a further distinguished career, included
the co-founding of Solarex, its sale to Amoco, and continued solar energy
consulting to the World Bank and other organizations, he was awarded the
European Photovoltaic Industry Association’s (EPIA) John Bonda prize
for his lifetime achievements.
Summer 2014
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As someone intimately familiar with the history of solar energy
teehnologies since the early 1970s, I quickly came to the conclusion that
no other book that I know of puts this history together as well as Peter’s
does. I learned a great deal I did not know about the PV industry’s early
years and its subsequent expansion into a critical part of the world’s
current and future energy system.
I expect that the audience for this book will be huge once the word
gets out — it will attract people like me who have lived through these
early days and can relate to much of the history, but also the rapidly
increasing number of people in the PV industry around the globe, and the
growing number of young people who are committed to cleaner energy
systems and will enter the field. This includes technically-oriented as well
as business-oriented people who will benefit from Peter’s wise business
insights, and academics searching for textbook material. It should also
prove useful to many in the environmental, developmental, and public
health communities who will apply photovoltaics to reducing carbon
emissions from power generation, telephonic communication, and the
provision of potable water for drinking, sanitation, and food production.
You can tell that I am enthusiastic about this book. It has a
structure that carefully lays out the history and insightfully anticipates the
future. Peter carefully describes the existential threat faced by today’s
electric utility sector that has been based for more than a century on a
centralized power generation model. With the emergence of low-cost
decentralized generating technologies such as PV, which has happened in
Germany and will eventually happen here in the U.S. and elsewhere,
utilities will have to change their business models. Peter has put together
an illuminating discussion of this revolution in the making.
The book is available from Amazon (www.amazon.com) in hard
cover, paperback, and as a Kindle e-book.
Bio
The reviewer. Dr. Allan Hoffman, is former Associate and Acting
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Utility Technologies at the U.S.
Department of Energy. He can be reached at arh053 1 @gmail.com.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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A New Model for Health Care
Presentation by Neal D. Barnard
at the
Washington Aeademy of Seienees 2014 Awards Banquet
Abstraet
Neal Barnard, M.D., was the engaging keynote speaker at the
Academy’s annual Awards Banquet on May 8, 2014. As President of
the Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine, Dr. Barnard is
tackling diabetes with a bold new dietary approach to nutrition and
health. In his presentation, he explained how a low-fat vegan diet,
which contains no animal products, can help reduce the need for
diabetes medicines. He began with data from Japan and compared it
with data on the United States. He then presented findings from
observational studies published by the American Diabetes Association,
as well as National Institutes of Health-funded studies by his own
organization and other research teams. He further discussed the
relationship between nutrition and Alzheimer’s disease — suggesting a
different approach for what is considered conventional medicine and
alternative medicine today. Dr. Barnard closed by describing just how
easily a person can make a diet change and his hopes for the future.
I GREW UP IN Fargo, North Dakota. And there, nutrition was not our
strong suit. My extended family was in the cattle business. More or less
every day, we ate roast beef, baked potatoes, and com. Except on special
occasions, when it was roast beef, baked potatoes, and peas. And that’s
about all I knew about healthy eating.
My father did not care for the cattle business, and he decided to
leave the family farm and go to medical school. He spent his life treating
diabetes in Fargo. And I never once heard him say that a patient had been
cured. Over time, patients always got worse. I never heard him say a
patient’s hypertension had been greatly improved.
I want to tackle that head on. There’s no topic that comes up in
conversation in America more often than health. Here’s why: One hundred
million Americans have diabetes or pre-diabetes now;' two out of three
are overweight; and cancer attacks one in three women and one in two
'1 • •
men. These are current rates, not projections. Our health care costs are
hitting $3 trillion, or $9,000 a person.''
Here is the typical scenario: You go to the doctor who tells you
Summer 2014
24
that you have diabetes, and says, “We’ll treat it with a drug called
Metformin. It will upset your tummy, but you’ll get used to it, and it will
bring your blood sugar down.” And sure enough, it does both of those
things.
But as time goes on, this is not enough. The doctor finds that your
blood sugar is creeping up some more and decides to add another
medication. This one is called Actos.
You do fairly well for a while, but as time goes on, your doctor
again says, “Your blood sugar is a little bit worse. Now we have to have a
talk about needles; we can bring your blood sugar down with insulin.”
You may say, “I’m not sure I want to do that.” ... “Well, you have to,”
your doctor replies. “You also need to lose weight. So we can prescribe a
drug called Xenical which will block your stomach from absorbing fat. If
things get really bad, we can operate on you, and give you a stomach the
size of a tennis ball, so you won’t be able to eat much at all. And you will
lose weight.”
Now, those of you who are economists are adding up how much all
this costs. You might ask, could the doctor have prescribed a diet change
instead? The only diet your doctor remembers is the Atkins Diet because
he/she saw a magazine article at the swimming pool, and remembers that
you are not supposed to eat bread, because bread somehow turns to
carbohydrates. So, he dutifully informs the patients, “Don’t eat any
carbohydrate, pasta, cookies, cake, or rice.”
A Lesson from Japan
It is time for a reality check. Let’s look around the world a bit.
Let’s take a lesson from Japan, where people have historically been thin,
with the best longevity figures in the world. What’s the dietary staple of
Japan? They eat enormous amounts of rice.
If you look at health statistics in Japan, you get an interesting
lesson. First of all, among adults over the age of 40, before 1980, diabetes
was rare — just one to five percent of the population.^
But what happened to Japan around 1980? Fast-food chains and
western eating habits invaded. William Castelli, the former director of the
Framingham Heart Study, used to say, “When you see the Golden Arches,
you’re on the road to the Pearly Gates.” Meat, cheese, and other animal
products are not traditional Japanese staples, but fast-food restaurants now
have long lines of people who are skipping traditional rice dishes and are
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eating burgers and cheese instead. Fat consumption is going up, and
carbohydrate intake is falling. The population was eating a high-
carbohydrate, rice-based diet, and now they are throwing out the rice and
bringing in the burgers. The result is more fat in the diet, and less
carbohydrate. What are the results? There is not yet a lot of obesity in
Japan, but body weights are clearly going up, particularly among men.
And when a population is eating more fat and gaining weight, what
happens to diabetes prevalence? Before 1980, diabetes in Japan among
adults over age 40 was 1-5%, but by 1990 it was 11-12%.^
This shows us two things. First, rice does not cause diabetes.
Second, diabetes is not primarily genetic. Now, there are genes for
diabetes, and it can run tlirough families. But did genes change from 1980
to 1990? No, what changed was the environment, and that can cause genes
to express themselves.
A Lesson from the United States
Let’s take a lesson from the United States. In 1909, the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that the average American
ate considerably more meat than people ate in Japan: the average was
123.9 pounds of meat per person per year.^ But it went up from there. By
o
2004, we were over 200 pounds of meat per year. That’s about 75 extra
pounds of meat per person per year, although it has trailed off a little since
then. What was the big increase? It was not an increase in beef or pork for
the most part.
The big increase has been chicken. Americans now eat one million
chickens per hour — around nine billion birds per year.^
Let me say a special word of condemnation for cheese. Back in
1909, we did not eat much cheese. But what happened? Around 1960,
fast-food restaurants started escorting little slabs of cheese onto the bun.
Then, pizza became popular. As we all know, pizza is essentially a
delivery vehicle for cheese. Compared to 1909, we’re now eating about 30
pounds more cheese per person per year.'^ Why does that matter? Because
cheese is 70% fat. Most of that is saturated fat, the kind that makes your
cholesterol rise. If it were any worse, it would be Vaseline.
Sugar is a more complicated story. Cane sugar and beet sugar
intake has fallen over time." But we have more than made up for it with
high-fructose corn syrup. If we add it all up, we’re eating more total
12
sweeteners.
Summer 2014
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So, as a population, we are eating 75 pounds more meat, 30 pounds
more cheese, and 30 to 50 pounds more sugar per person per year than
about a century ago.
So why do we have an obesity epidemic? Some have laid the
blame at a lack of exercise. But, researchers have carefully gone through
the statistics, and a lack of exercise has nothing to do with the obesity
epidemic. Let me repeat: A lack of exercise has NOTHING to do with the
obesity epidemic. That does not mean that exercise is not good for you.
Quite the contrary, exercise is beneficial, and I highly recommend it. But
the changes in exercise over the last hundred years have been far too small
to account for the massive increase in obesity prevalence; the problem is
on the input side of the equation. If you are skeptical, let me encourage
you to try an experiment: go to the gym, find a treadmill, and run, flat-out,
for a mile. Then wipe your sweaty brow, and punch the little button that
shows how many calories you just burned. If s only about a hundred. And
on your way back home, if you have a 20-ounce soda, less than half of it
gives you back that 100 calories!
As our diets have changed, diabetes prevalence has increased year
by year. [Slides showed the progression of diabetes, state-by-state, as the
disease reached milestones; diabetes rose first in the states near the coasts
and in the South, and now all states have progressed regarding diabetes.
See Figure 1.] Diabetes just does not wait. It is still getting worse. Now,
it’s hitting children and teenagers with what we used to call “adult-onsef’
diabetes.
Figure 1. Diabetes prevalence, 2009
0-6.5
6.6 -8.0
8.1 -9.4
9.5 - 11.1
> 11.2
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American Diabetes Association Findings
Are there populations that do better? One group that has been put
under the microscope is Seventh-day Adventists. When I first started my
research career, I wondered why researchers studied Seventh-day
Adventists so frequently. The reason is that most Adventists comply with
admonitions to avoid tobacco, alcohol, and caffeine, but they vary
regarding meat consumption. So researchers have a health-conscious
population that varies in diet, which provides a good natural experiment
group.
In 2009, the American Diabetes Association published data from
the Adventist Health Study-2 which divided the participants into five diet
groups. The study first looked at body mass index (BMI), which is
essentially body weight adjusted for height [the formula is body weight in
kilograms, divided by height (in meters) squared], as shown in Figure 2. A
healthy BMI is typically described as below 25 kg/m . The non-
vegetarians — that is, the people following a typical meat-based diet — in
this group had an average BMI of 28.8. The semi -vegetarians (who eat
meat, but less than once a week) were a bit thinner. The pesco-vegetarians
(who eat no meat, except fish) were a little bit thinner. The lacto-ovo
vegetarians (who eat milk and eggs, but no meat of any kind) were even a
little bit thinner than that.
Figure 2. Body mass index, Adventist Health Study 2 (60,903 participants, aged >30,
enrolled 2002-2006)
Summer 2014
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The fifth category was for people following a vegan diet. I should
clarify that a vegan is not a person from the planet Vegas. It’s simply a
person who eats no animal products at all. And they turned out to be the
only group whose weight was in the middle of the healthy range. But the
reason that the American Diabetes Association wanted these data
published was because of the figures for diabetes prevalence. And here we
see much the same gradient (see Figure 3). The meat eaters had a high
prevalence, the vegans had a very low prevalence, and the other groups
were between the two. Even if you control for the fact that vegans tend to
be better-educated and more physically active, they still have a decided
advantage.
Type 2 Diabetes Prevalence
8-1 7.6%
Figure 3. Type 2 diabetes prevalence, Adventist Health Study 2 (60,903 participants,
aged >30, enrolled 2002-2006)
Diet Research with Washington, D.C.-Area Women
So my research team decided to test the effects of a vegan diet in
people who had never tried anything like this before. We enrolled 64
women in a randomized trial. They were all overweight and eager to try a
diet change.
We asked half the participants to follow what many people would
consider a “healthy” diet — lean meats, skim milk, and plenty of
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vegetables and fruits, following the guidance of the National Cholesterol
Education Program. That was the control group.
The experimental group began a very different regimen. We asked
them to follow a vegan diet. That meant using a graphic we called the
“Power Plate,” which includes fruits, grains, legumes and vegetables. And
there were only two rules: They were to avoid animal products and to keep
oils low. The reason for this is that fat has nine calories per gram, while
carbohydrates have only four calories per gram. So while olive oil is better
than chicken fat, it still has a lot of calories compared to, say, rice, which
is mostly carbohydrates and very low in calories.
They could eat as much as they wanted — there was no calorie
counting and no carbohydrate limit. They could eat blueberry pancakes for
breakfast or oatmeal with cinnamon and raisins, and they could eat chili
for lunch, as long as it was a vegetable chili or bean chili. They would
have been good with a vegetable lasagna or linguini with artichoke hearts,
wild mushrooms, tomatoes, or whatever, rather than meat sauce.
Those of you with experience in health care know you can’t just
say to a patient, “Here’s your diet; come back and see me in six months.”
People need support. So we met with the group every week.
At about week number three, one of our participants announced to
the group that she had found a treat that fits in perfectly with a low-fat
vegan diet. She opened her purse and pulled out a pack of Twizzlers —
the red licorice twists sold at convenience stores. She said, “Look at the
label.” I did, and it was true. They contain no animal products and no
added fat. They are just sugary, starchy, artificially-colored junk. And she
made sure everybody in the room knew that they were free to eat all the
Twizzlers they wanted in this research study.
So my vegan, low-fat, Twizzler-fueled participants set off on their
path to the unknown. After 14 weeks, the average person had lost 13
pounds. We then tracked them for an additional two years. They never
regained their lost weight; in fact they were thinner at two years than they
were at the beginning.
National Institutes of Health-Funded Study of Diabetes
We were then funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to
try a similar regimen for people with type 2 diabetes. We did a head-to-
head test of a low-fat vegan diet versus what I would call an American
Diabetes Association diet, which keeps carbohydrates limited and fairly
Summer 2014
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constant from day to day, and uses a calorie restriction for weight loss. (I
have to admit, calorie-counting gets old by about Wednesday, but that is
still the current dietary approach.)
The plant-based diet was not only more effective at lowering blood
sugar, body weight, blood pressure, and blood cholesterol, but it turned
out to be just as acceptable, or even more so, compared with a more
standard “diabetes diet.” How can that be? After all, you are not eating
any cheese or meat. The reason for its high acceptability is that you can
eat as much as you want. People are never hungry, and instead of trying to
starve weight off, the low-fat, high-fiber foods do the work for you.
Now, let me walk you through my most important slide (see Figure
4.) I would like to show you what I believe to be the cause of type 2
diabetes. It has nothing to do with rice, bread, or carbohydrates in general.
Glucose
Insulin
Figure 4. Inside the muscle cell
This is a muscle cell. Muscle cells are central to this process. Most
circulating glucose eventually ends up in muscle cells. Some goes to the
brain, some goes to other organs, but most goes to the muscles of your
arms, legs, and other parts of your body. When a doctor measures your
Washington Academy of Sciences
31
blood sugar and finds that it is too high, this means sugar that was
supposed to be passing from your blood into your musele cells has not
made it. The problem is that sugar — that is, glucose — cannot get
through the little channels that lead into the cell without the help of a
hormone called insulin. Insulin is like a key that opens channels on the
cell. Each tiny insulin “key” attaches to a receptor and signals the channels
to open, pemiitting glucose to enter the cell. That’s the way the system is
supposed to work.
But in type 2 diabetes, something inside the cell is interfering with
that process. Microscopic droplets of fat are accumulating in the cell. It
might have originally come from chicken fat, beef fat, pork fat, fryer
grease, or extra-virgin olive oil, but it is now ending up in the cell with
surprisingly little biotransformation. By the way, doctors hate words like
“fat.” It has only one syllable. So, we call it intramyocellular lipid.
So intramyocellular lipid, or fat, builds up inside the cell and
interferes with insulin signaling. Now it may not be the quantity of fat; it
may be how the fat is metabolized. But current dietary treatments for
diabetes ignore this problem, and focus instead on bread, pasta, rice, or
whatever else contributes glucose to the bloodstream.
That’s not the problem; the problem is that the cell can’t accept the
glucose. So let’s fix that. How? By getting rid of the intramyocellular lipid
to the extent we can.
How can we do this? There are two ways. First, you could have
gastric bypass surgery so you just can no longer absorb fat. That will
eventually reduce the fat inside your cells. But what if you were to begin a
plant-based diet? That means there is no animal fat in your diet at all. And
what if you also keep your vegetable oils low? Well, that intracellular fat
then starts to diminish.
Let’s put a human face on this phenomenon. This is a participant in
our study. [Shows overhead slide.] Over the course of a year, she lost
about 40 pounds. She stopped all of her diabetes medication. And the test
we use to assess blood sugar control is called hemoglobin Ale. For a
person with diabetes, it ought to be below 7.0. She started at 8.3, which
reflects poor control. But by changing her diet, even though she had
stopped her medications, she got to 6.8, which is a dramatic improvement.
She also discovered that her arthritis went away, which is
something we see not infrequently. Certain foods trigger an autoimmune
response that lead to inflammation of certain parts of the body, particularly
Summer 2014
32
the synovial lining of the joints. The most common food trigger appears to
be dairy protein. Citrus, tomatoes, eggs, or other foods might also be
problems for some people, but dairy products seem to be the most
common. As she got rid of her dairy protein, she got the extra benefit of
eliminating her joint pain.
Here is another study participant. [Shows another overhead slide.]
His father was dead by age 30. Our participant was 31 when he got his
diabetes diagnosis, and was in his late 30s when he joined the study. Over
a year’s time, he lost 60 pounds. He stopped all his diabetes medication.
His Ale was previously 9.5, which is quite high. After the diet change, it
had dropped to 5.3, which is in the normal range.
Doctors are not used to seeing diabetes improve to the point where
it is no longer detectable. However, our research team has seen it over and
over again, because we are tackling the cause of diabetes. By the way,
when I was asking his permission to tell you about this case, he said, “Be
sure you tell everybody that my erectile dysfunction got better, too.”
Study of Two D.C.-Area Corporate Sites: Chevy Chase and
Fredericksburg
When I look out my office window, what 1 see is the GEICO
building, the company’s national headquarters on Western Avenue in
Chevy Chase, Maryland. There are about 2,500 people working there.
Back in 2007, 1 was talking with their company health director. We
noted together that it would be great if everybody at GEICO followed a
healthier diet. Among other benefits, the company would save an
enormous amount of money! So we decided to do a test. We picked two
sites, the one in Chevy Chase and the other site in Fredericksburg,
Virginia.
At both sites, everybody who wanted to volunteer was put on the
scale. We tracked their weight, their cholesterol, their blood pressure, and
their Ale if they had diabetes. And in the Chevy Chase branch, we began
the intervention, which had two parts. First, we offered a weekly group to
help everyone stay on track. This included a cooking class and plenty of
support. Second, the cafeteria served vegan food in addition to its other
foods. So it might offer bacon and eggs, but it also offered an oatmeal bar.
It might have cheeseburgers, but it also had veggie burgers, or portobello
sandwiches, or a salad bar.
All of this was a bit new to the cafeteria manager, and there were a
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couple of mis-steps along the way. [As an example, Dr. Barnard showed
the cafeteria sign, proudly featuring a “Vegan burger with bacon and
cheese”!]
The participants in Fredericksburg (the control group) did not lose
weight, but the participants in Chevy Chase on the vegan diet lost weight
I T
very nicely. The average person lost 1 1 pounds.
Fats, Antioxidants, and Alzheimer’s Disease
Let’s switch gears and look at Alzheimer’s Disease. Everybody
knows someone in the family or a friend’s family who has had this
disease. It attacks not quite half of us by the age of 85.'^ And the disease is
increasingly prevalent year by year. If you ask your doctor for an effective
means to prevent it, your doctor is likely to point out that the disease is
largely genetic. The genetic trait we are speaking of is the APOE epsilon-4
allele. If one parent gave it to you, your risk is 3 times greater than for
people without the allele. If both parents gave it to you, your risk is 10-15
times greater. Inside the brain, proteins are secreted from brain cells, and
they accumulate in beta-amyloid plaques which we can see on
microscopic slides after death. There are medications that try to slow that
process; none is particularly impressive, although they are widely-
prescribed.
In Chicago, a team of researchers took a very different approach.
The Chicago Elealth and Aging Project recruited about 6,000 people and
tracked what they ate, and also tracked their cognition over time.
One nutrient that soon came to the researchers’ attention was
something I knew about as a child. My mother cooked bacon for her five
children, and once the bacon was cooked, she poured the hot grease into a
jar to save it. As the grease cooled down, it solidified, which is a sign that
it is loaded with saturated fat. There is saturated fat, not just in bacon
grease, but in meats in general, and in dairy products as well.
Some people in Chicago ate relatively little saturated fat — about
13 grams of saturated fat a day; other people in Chicago were eating about
twice that amount.
Looking at their Alzheimer’s disease prevalence, we see a dramatic
difference: This is the low group, and this is the high group. [The slide
showed Alzheimer’s risk in the high group was 3.5 times that in the low
group.] So by eating more saturated fat, your Alzheimer’s risk triples, if
your risk is like that of the Chicago research participants.
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Where does saturated fat come from? Two eggs have three grams
[of saturated fat]. A slice of bacon has one gram ... And do you know
anyone who eats a single slice of bacon?! A chicken thigh without the skin
is 4V2 grams. A glass of whole milk, another 4V2. Pizza for one, 12 grams.
When we add that up, we are in the range of the high saturated fat group.
And many Americans eat these foods every day.
Then there are trans fats, which are common in pastries and other
snack foods. Some people in the Chicago study ate more trans fats than
other people did. Let’s look at their numbers. There’s the low group [1.8
grams], and the high group [4.8 grams]. The people who ate the most trans
fats had five times the risk of Alzheimer’s compared to those who were
eating relatively little trans fat.
How do fats affect Alzheimer’s risk? We believe what is going on
is that fats in the diet cause cholesterol levels to rise. That doesn’t just
assault your heart; it also causes the production and deposition of beta-
amyloid in the brain. In turn, within the beta-amyloid plaques, free
radicals cause damage to the brain. This is the theory. Researchers are still
trying to sort out the details, but we do have a lot of evidence that this is
what is at work.
Now vitamin E is an antioxidant. It can knock out free radicals and
prevent free-radical damage. There is a lot of vitamin E in nuts, seeds, and
many plants. In Chicago, some people had low intakes of vitamin E, while
others got much higher amounts. If you look at their rates of Alzheimer’s
disease, you discover something else. The people who generally avoid
vitamin E have double the risk of Alzheimer’s.'^
All we are doing is adding up tools that we can use to reduce our
risk. If I avoid saturated fat and trans fats, and get plenty of vitamin E, I
am getting to the cause of the disease. There is a lot more that we can do,
and some of you may have seen my PBS program which goes into
elaborate detail about the ways we can deal with Alzheimer’s.
Drugs and Memory Loss
But there is one more threat to memory that I want to mention.
This was taught to me by Dr. Duane Graveline, a physician and fonner
NASA astronaut-in-training. One day, he got in his car and drove home,
and when he arrived, he did not recognize his own wife. Needless to say,
he got immediate medical attention. But why did his memory disappear?
The only change he had made in the past two months was that he had
started taking atorvastatin, a statin marketed under the brand name Lipitor.
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It’s generally safe. It lowers cholesterol and has very few side effects. Or
so we have thought. So he stopped the drug, and his memory promptly
came back. He restarted the medicine again a few months later at half the
dose, and his memory was again wiped out in about four weeks’ time.
So, the FDA now issues a warning, not only for Lipitor, but for
every statin, saying that, although it is generally safe, it does have a
number of side effects: muscle and liver side effects, increased risk of
diabetes, and effects on memory in rare cases. I’m not suggesting that
people should not use atorvastatin. What I am suggesting is that 90% of
people do not need it. They are taking it because they are selecting — as
part of their daily fare — meats, dairy products and other foods that
increase their cholesterol levels which they are then trying to drive back
down with the drugs that stop their body from being able to produce
cholesterol. If they would give themselves eight weeks, and avoid all those
cholesterol-producing foods, in 90% of the cases their cholesterol would
likely descend into the normal range. Roughly one in ten would not. These
are individuals with genetic hypercholesterolemia, and that’s where the
discussion about lipid-lowering drugs is sensible.
Many other drugs affect memory. If you ever have a patient or
family member with an acute change in mental status, the first thing to do
is to march into the bathroom and open up the medicine cabinet and see
what’s new. Many medications can affect the brain, and their effects add
together. For example, an anticholinergic sleeping medication adds to an
anticholinergic psychiatric medication and, before long, the brain starts to
get overload.
Conventional Medicine, Alternative Medicine
Currently, prescriptions are viewed as conventional therapy for
diabetes, lipid problems, blood pressure, and Alzheimer’s disease.
Diet and lifestyle changes are viewed as “alternative” medicine.
That distinction made perfect sense a century ago when infectious
illnesses were medicine’s greatest challenges. Asparagus is no good
against tuberculosis.
Today, medical clinics and hospitals are dealing with the
consequences of our eating habits. Conventional medicine should be
taking a good, hard look at our diets. And when a diet change is not
enough, we should use medications, surgery, and other treatments as
“alternative” medicine.
Summer 2014
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If we can reverse our notions of what is conventional and what is
alternative, we would not be spending $3 trillion annually on health care.
Our costs would plummet, and perhaps our doctors would have
Wednesday afternoons off
So, what is a healthy diet? There are four key food groups: Fruits,
grains, legumes, and vegetables, which we have depicted as the four
quadrants of The Power Plate. The Physicians Committee for Responsible
Medicine sent this graphic to the USDA in 2009. Two years later, USDA
released MyPlate, which does look remarkably similar.
Beginning a Healthful Diet
You might be thinking, “Okay, I get it. If I follow your diet, ITl be
healthier and slimmer. But how do I do this? It sounds like a big change”.
Let’s show you how we do it in our research studies. I’ve never
seen anyone who cannot do this.
Step 1: Check Out the Possibilities
The first step is not to change your diet. Rather, just check out the
possibilities. The idea is to think of plant-based foods that you would like
for breakfast, lunch, dinner, and snacks. We ask patients to take a week to
test them out. For breakfast, perhaps blueberry pancakes or oatmeal with
cinnamon and raisins, or maybe a breakfast scrambler with tofu instead of
eggs.
Lunches or dinners might be vegetable chili, bean burritos, or
whatever you like. (See Figure 5.)
If you’re at a restaurant, an Italian place will be more than happy to
give you a tomato sauce instead of the alfredo sauce. Mexican cuisine
might mean bean burritos, veggie fajitas, or beans and rice. Chinese or
Japanese restaurants are even easier. A submarine sandwich shop would
be more than happy to load up a sandwich with lettuce, tomatoes,
cucumbers, spinach, olives, hot peppers, and red wine vinegar. They’ll
even toast it for you and call it a “Veggie Delight.” A taco place may not
be the pinnacle of culinary art, but they will be happy to give you a bean
burrito (hold the cheese).
Step 2: Do a Three-Week Test Drive
After a week, when you’ve tried out various foods and you know
what you like, it’s time for Step 2: A three-week “test drive.” The idea is
Washington Academy of Sciences
37
to have an entirely plant-based diet, all the time, but only for three weeks.
There’s something about human psychology: We’ll try anything for three
weeks. And at the end of that period of time, two things happen: One,
you’re healthier. Your weight is improving, your blood sugar is down,
your energy is up, and you’re feeling better.
Healthy Breakfasts
• Cinnamon Raisin Oatmeal
• Blueberry Pancakes
• Hot Whole Wheat with Dates
• Breakfast Scrambler
• Fantastic Fruit Smoothie
• Whole-Grain Bagel with Jam
• Swiss Style Muesli
• Slow Cooker Whole-Grain Porridge
• Orange-Pineapple Crush
Lunehes and Dinners
• Chunky Vegetable Chili
• Chuckwagon Stew
• Seitan & Mushroom Stroganoff
• Portobello Mushroom Steaks
• Oven-Barbecued Tofu Steaks
• Roadhouse Hash
• Sweet & Sour Tempeh
• Southern Beans & Greens
• Seitan Cassoulet
• Mandarin Stir-Fry
• Stuffed Vegetable Rolls
• Zucchini & Herb Calzones
• Chili Bean Macaroni
Figure 5. Examples of healthy breakfasts, lunches, and dinners
The other thing is that your tastes have changed. You’re not
necessarily expecting this. But let me ask this group: How many of you
have ever switched from whole milk to skim or low-fat milk? What was
the skim milk like at the beginning? Wateiy? It didn’t even look right, did
it, with that bluish tint?
How many of you adapted to the lower-fat milk? Did you ever go
back and taste the whole milk again? What was that like? It was too thick,
right? Like cream.
Summer 2014
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Well, your whole life, whole milk tasted fine, and you got away
from it only because you wanted to be healthy. And while you lightened
your diet, your taste buds adjusted, and now they don’t want to go back. In
the same way, when people quit smoking, they no longer want to be
around tobacco smoke. Your tastes change.
The first week on a vegan diet, it does seem a bit light. You’re
likely to imagine that you will need to acquire a taste for folk music now.
Break out the tie-dye. But by the second week, you will start to discover
there are many foods that are really good, and there are a thousand vegan
cookbooks available. And there are a lot of people that you know or
respect who have made this diet change before you — Bill Clinton, Ellen
Degeneres, and countless others are doing it and liking it. They are
slimming down and looking better than they have in a long time.
And then, after about three or four weeks, if you were to go back
and have a double-bacon-cheeseburger, you would realize you’re past that.
Unhealthy foods have lost much of their appeal. And your doctor will be
saying, “I don’t know how you did this, but just keep doing it.”
Optional: Use Transition Foods
Focus on the short term. There are also what I call “transition
foods,” if you want them. Instead of Jimmy Dean pork sausage, there is
Gimme Lean vegan sausage. You will find substitutes for bacon, burgers,
and many other products. You can use those substitutes if you want.
21-Day Vegan Kickstart Program
The Physicians Committee offers a free online program called the
Kickstart. At our website [see www.PCRM.orgT you enter your email
address, and we send a daily message with menus, recipes, cooking
videos, and support, all for free. We also have a free app, called “21 -day
Kickstart.” The program is in English, Spanish, and Mandarin, along with
a special English-language program for India, and also a Japanese
program. A French one is coming soon.
Closing
The last thing I want to say, apart from thanking you for allowing
me to share this time with you, is that, although 1 hope you’ve enjoyed this
message, the people who need this message the most are not in this room.
The people who need it the most are eight years old.
Washington Academy of Sciences
39
If you were to go to school and see what children eat there and the
snacks they have on their way home, it’s unprecedented. We have a
generation that has grown up with all kinds of foods that generations ago
never thought of And they are at high risk of diabetes, obesity,
cardiovascular disease, and several forms of cancer. We can’t cut that
down to zero, but we have to do what we can to cut it as much as we can.
A generation ago, we tackled smoking. It was a challenge. At my
hospital — the George Washington University Hospital here in
Washington. D.C. — it was a major issue. Could we ban smoking in our
hospital? It sounds crazy now, but it was a serious question at the time.
But we made the decisions that had to be made: no more cigarettes in the
gift shop; no more patients smoking in bed; no more smoking in the
doctors’ lounge — no smoking, period. On cold February mornings,
smokers had to finish their cigarettes outside the building before they were
allowed in. And you know what? We won that battle. And now, there’s
not a person on the planet who doesn’t know that smoking is bad for them.
If the previous generation could tackle smoking, it’s time to tackle
food! We start by changing our diets individually. We get to know new
and healthier foods; we talk about them and share with others; we bring
nutrition into medical education; and we work with businesses and
schools.
And in five or ten years, I predict that some cold February
morning, a person will be finishing up his last chicken wing before he’s
allowed to go into his vegan building, embraced by his vegan friends who
aren’t playing folk music.
Discussion
Question: Can you address a couple of articles in the New York
Times about 6 months ago saying cholesterol is not the problem, but rather
bacteria in the stomach?
Response: There has been a surge of interest recently in the
microbiome of the digestive tract. Cholesterol is as big a problem as we
ever thought it was because, independent of the context of the intestinal
tract, when you lower cholesterol levels — even pharmacologically —
you see benefit. But you’re touching on a critically important emerging
area, and I just wish we knew the answers to it now. We will be a lot
smarter in a year or so than we are now.
Question: Does a person have to follow a plant-based, or other.
Summer 2014
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kinds of diets?
Response: People can do whatever they wish to. With regard to
tobacco, most smokers don’t get lung cancer, but the odds of it are so
high, that you just don’t want to be in that lottery. And there are all sorts
of other health issues that come along with it.
So I’m not suggesting that every meat-eater is necessarily going to
have a higher BMI or will have diabetes, but the odds are not in his favor,
not to mention all the other issues.
Our environmentalist friends are pointing out that we’re not being
very responsible stewards and not supporting the meat industry. I’m sure I
don’t have to tell this crowd about all that. Our friends who have a heart
for animals are also giving their reasons as well ... all of which I grew up
with and ignored, but I no longer view a plant-based diet as an extreme
end. It’s not hard to eat spaghetti. But, if you like, you can go much
further. There are now people who follow diets that are gluten-free, raw,
or macrobiotic, all of which are much more challenging than a plant-based
diet. Just getting animals out of the diet is a simple and really good step.
But people can do whatever they wish.
Question: What about fish, compared to mammals?
Response: Great question! Fish are higher in omega 3, which are
good fats, and that’s spawned quite a tremendous industry, in not only
fish, but also fish oil capsules and so forth. But several things should be
said: Most of the fat in fish is not omega 3. Specifically, 70-85% of fat in
typical fish species is not omega 3. It’s a mixture of saturated fat and
various kinds of unsaturated fat. Secondly, fish does have cholesterol and
lacks fiber and vitamin C and other things that you really need. And, when
we look at contamination, fish is near the top of the list.
There’s an interesting article coming out soon that takes a fresh
look at the Eskimo diet. Maybe you’ve heard in the past that Inuits and
Eskimos eat blubber and fish, but they don’t have heart disease. However,
it turns out that Inuits have quite high rates of heart disease and
particularly high rates of hemorrhagic stroke. So fish is looking a lot more
like beef than it is like broccoli.
I see I’ve depressed you, so let me offer one last suggestion ... If
you really feel you must cook some fish, take a small amount of salmon,
cut it into strips, and cook it thoroughly, then put it on a small plate. You
can set it on the floor and call your cat over — because your cat is a
carnivore and will be very happy with it!
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Question: Are you a vegetarian?
Response: I am now, yes. I grew up on an unhealthy diet, and I
smoked. At one point, I threw out the cigarettes and adopted a vegan diet.
I only wish I’d done that earlier. Also, a doctor is not a very credible role
model if he or she has not made some major diet improvements.
Sometimes when I’m doing my ground rounds, I have to remind
my medical colleagues that diabetes is not a joke. There is a high chance
of losing your vision, your kidneys, and your feet. In that context, the idea
of not eating meat is a trivial thing to do, and all the “side effects” are
good — weight loss, lower cholesterol, and better energy. So I strongly
encourage physicians to set aside some time and give it a try.
Question: What about the French paradox?
Response: The idea is that the French seem to have less heart
disease, particularly compared to the English. This has been attributed to
wine consumption, which may get some of the credit, but statisticians
have looked at the data, and the biggest part of the credit may go to the
fact that the French data do not include sudden death as a cardiovascular
death. In the English data, a sudden heart attack is counted as a
cardiovascular death.
Question: Geriatric research has studied restricted calorie diets,
where the same nutrients are fed with 30% fewer calories, and that extends
life by a significant fraction more than due to habits alone. Should we all
be on restricted-calorie plant-based diets?
Response: I think you can restrict calories, but it’s really rough to
do it intentionally, and to be hungry all the time. So, here’s where our
friend fiber comes in. It is in beans, grains, vegetables, and fruits. Fiber
has no calories, and it dilutes the calories in the food that you’re eating.
When we put people on a vegan diet, we don’t limit portions or calories,
but they’ve all automatically reduced their energy intake by perhaps 200
calories a day, without being aware of it. They’re eating so much fiber that
they simply get full sooner. But cheese has no fiber, and that’s true of
meat and eggs, too. The best way to restrict calories is to make a
qualitative shift.
By the way, if any of you would like to be involved in the research
or clinical work we do, we would love to have you. And we’re starting a
clinic in our office in November, which we hope will be not only a site for
good medical and nutritional care, but also a place for teaching medical
students and residents, so that medical care in the future will look very
Summer 2014
42
different from what it is today.
References
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National Diabetes Statistics Report:
Estimates of Diabetes and Its Burden in the United States, 2014. Atlanta, Georgia: U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services, 2014.
2
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). National Center for Health
Statistics (NCHS). National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Data. Hyattsville,
Maryland: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention, 2009-2010.
^ Howlader, N., A. M. Noone, M. Krapcho, J. Garshell, N. Neyman, S. F. Altekruse, C.
L. Kosary, M. Yu, J. Ruhl, Z. Tatalovich, H. Cho, A. Mariotto, D. R. Lewis, H. S. Chen,
E. J. Feuer, K. A. Cronin (eds). SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975-2010, National
Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland, http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975 2010/. based on
November 2012 SEER data submission, posted to the SEER web site, April 2013.
'' Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Office of the Actuary, National
Health Statistics Group. National Health Expenditure Projections, 201 1-2012.
^ Kuzuya, T. Prevalence of diabetes mellitus in Japan compiled from literature. Diab Res
Clin Practice. 1994;24 Suppl:S15-S21.
^ Kuzuya.
^ U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service,
http://www.ers.usda.gOv/Data/FoodConsumption/FoodAvailSpreadsheets.htm#mtpcc.
^ USDA.
^ USDA, accessed February 27, 2014.
U.S. Department of Agriculture. Economic Research Service,
http://www.ers.usda.gOv/data-products/dairv-data.aspx#.Ui9QRT 4LTI. accessed
September 10, 2013.
" USDA. Economic Research Service. Last updated December 21, 2004.
In dry weight, pounds per capita per year.
www.cdc.gov/diabetes
Tonstad, S., et al. Type of vegetarian diet, body weight and prevalence of type 2
diabetes. Diabetes Care 2009;32:791-6.
Hebert, L. E. Arch Neurol. 2003 ;60: 1 1 19-1 122.
Washington Academy of Sciences
43
Risk over 3.9 years of follow-up; Morris, M. C. JAMA. 2002;287:3230-3237.
’’ Barnard, N D. Protect Your Memory. 2013. http://video.pbs.org/video/233786754 1 /
[For the program DVD, visit Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/Protect-Your-Memorv-
With-Barnard/dp/B00B999EBW/ref=sr 1 l?ie-UTF8&qid= 140364 1347&sr=8-
1 &kevwords=Protect+Y our+MemorvI
Slide listed the following: Midazolam (Versed), cholesterol-lowering drugs, sleeping
medications, antidepressants, antihistamines, anxiety medications, blood pressure
medications, and acid blockers.
Bio
Neal D. Barnard, M.D. is a clinical researcher, author, and health
advocate. He has been a principal investigator on several clinical trials
investigating the relationship between nutrition and health. Dr. Barnard
reeeived his M.D. degree at the George Washington University School of
Medicine in Washington, D.C., and completed his residency at the same
institution. He is also Adjunct Associate Professor of Medicine at the
George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences,
and president of the Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine.
Summer 2014
44
Washington Academy of Sciences
45
Washington Academy of Sciences
Annual Awards Banquet
May 8, 2014
The Sphinx Club, Washington, D.C.
Photo: Christopher Puttock
Washington Academy of Sciences President Terrell Erickson served as Master of
Ceremonies for the 2014 awards ceremony.
Summer 2014
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Photo: Christopher Puttock
Keynote speaker Dr. Neal Barnard addressed the latest scientific findings on the effects
of diet on health [see keynote speech in this issue].
Photo: Christopher Puttock
Dr. Barnard is a clinical researcher, author, and health advocate affiliated with the George
Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences and the Physicians
Committee for Responsible Medicine.
Washington Academy of Sciences
47
Photo; A1 Teich
Dr. Michael Fasolka, Deputy Director of the Material Measurement Laboratory at the
National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) presented the 2014 award for
Distinguished Career in Science to Debra Lee Kaiser.
Photo: Ram Sriram
WAS past president A1 Teich (left) presented the award for Lifetime Achievement in the
Public Understanding of Science to Jack Williams of the American Meteorological
Society.
Summer 2014
48
Photo: A1 Teich
Daina Apple (right), delegate to WAS representing the National Capital Society of
American Foresters, presented the award for Lifetime Achievement in Natural Resources
Sciences to Marilyn A. Buford of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Photo: A1 Teich
Academy Fellow Lisa Karam presented the 2014 Physical Sciences Award to NIST’s
Muhammad Arif
Washington Academy of Sciences
49
Photo: A1 Teich
Dr. Charles Romine (left), Director of the NIST Information Technology Laboratory,
presented the 2014 Math and Computer Science Award to NIST’s Ronald F. Boisvert.
Photo: Christopher Puttock
Attendance at the Academy’s awards banquet exceeded expectations, additional tables
were set up, and everyone enjoyed meeting & greeting the award winners, an annual
highlight for the Academy.
Summer 2014
50
f«T
Photo: A1 Teich
Academy Fellow Mina Izadjoo presented the 2014 Health Sciences award to U.S. Navy
Officer Eric Elster of the Uniformed Services University.
Photo: A1 Teich
WAS Board Member at Large Neal Schmeidler (right) presented the 2014 Engineering
Award to David Danner of IDEAMATICS.
Washington Academy of Sciences
51
Photo: A1 Teich
The Academy’s Past President Jim Egenrieder presented the Lamberton Award for the
Teaching of Science to Jerri Anne Cupero of Northern Virginia Community College.
Photo: Christopher Puttock
Attendees enjoy the Washington Academy of Sciences 2014 Awards Banquet at the
Sphinx Club in Washington, D.C., on May 8.
Summer 2014
52
Washington Academy of Sciences
2014 Awardees
Congratulations to these distinguished scientists and educators!
Washington Academy of Sciences
53
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Journal of the
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Volume 100 Number 3 Fall 2014
Contents
Board of Discipline Editors ii
Editor’s Comments S. Rood iii
Guest Editorial
Energizing Growth in a Bubble Economy R. U. Ayres 1
Influential Statisticians of Yesteryear Active in the Washington Statistical
Society M. P. Cohen 7
Innovation Pipeline Management: Lessons Learned from the Federal
Government and Private Sector B. Lai, N. Gupta 21
Joseph Henry’s House and Plan for the Princeton Campus E. Y. S. Tjimg,
D. Kaufmann, M G. Littwan 49
In Memoriam: Joseph F. Coates (1929-2014) 73
Membership Application 77
Instructions to Authors 78
Affiliated Institutions 79
Affiliated Societies and Delegates 80
ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington DC
Fall 2014
II
Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences
Editor Sally A. Rood, PhD sallv.rood2@gmail.com
Board of Discipline Editors
The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences has a 12-
member Board of Discipline Editors representing many scientific and
technical fields. The members of the Board of Discipline Editors are
affiliated with a variety of scientific institutions in the Washington area
and beyond — government agencies such as the National Institute of
Standards and Technology (NIST); universities such as George Mason
University (GMU); and professional associations such as the Institute of
Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
Anthropology
Astronomy
Biology /Biophysics
Botany
Chemistry
Environmental Natural
Sciences
Health
History of Medicine
Operations Research
Physics
Science Education
Systems Science
Emanuela Appetiti eappetiti@hotmail.com
Sethanne Howard sethanneh@msn.com
Eugenie Mielczarek mielczar@phvsics.gmu.edu
Mark Holland maholland@,salisburv.edu
Deana Jaber diaber@marvmount.edu
Terrell Erickson terrell.ericksonl@wdc.nsda.gov
Robin Stombler rstombler@, auburnstrat.com
Alain Touwaide atouwaide@,hotmail.com
Michael Katehakis mnk@rci.rutgers.edu
Katharine Gebbie katharine.gebbie@nist.gov
Jim Egenrieder i im@deepwater.org
Elizabeth Corona elizabethcorona@gmail.com
Washington Academy of Sciences
Ill
Editor’s Comments
The Washington Academy of Sciences is proud of its Washington,
D.C. area science community and the rich history here. In 1898, the
Academy formed as an affiliation of specialized scientific societies in the
greater Washington metropolitan area. The founders included Alexander
Graham Bell and Samuel Langley, a Secretary of the Smithsonian
Institution in Washington. The purpose of the new Academy was to
encourage the advancement of science and “to conduct, endow, or assist
investigation in any department of science.” Over the years, the number of
affiliated societies has increased from the original eight to more than 60
organizations that the Academy brings together through its activities.
One of those affiliated scientific societies is the Washington
Statistical Society, and Michael Cohen, a past president of the
Washington Statistical Society, has written the paper, “Influential
Statisticians of Yesteryear Active in the Washington Statistical Society.”
The persons of note included a Commissioner of Labor Statistics, a chief
statistician of the Bureau of the Census, a key developer of the federal
statistical system, and some of the twentieth century’s most influential
applied statisticians — including a renowned quality management expert
and pioneers in biostatistics and in epidemiological clinical trials. Wow!
As the federal government establishes programs for innovation,
there is much it can learn from both private sector innovation programs
and the early federal programs in this area. The article, “Innovation
Pipeline Management: Lessons Learned from the Federal Government and
Private Sector,” by Bhavya Lai and Nayanee Gupta, is based upon a
study that identified best practices for consideration at each stage of the
innovation pipeline.
To continue with the history theme, the next paper is about {he first
Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution. Before assuming his historical
post at the Smithsonian in Washington, D.C., Joseph Henry was a
distinguished professor at Princeton in New Jersey. Our paper, “Joseph
Henry’s House and Plan for the Princeton Campus,” is by Ezra Tjung,
Daniel Kaufmann, and Michael Littman. It discusses the fascinating
history of the design of the Princeton campus and how Henry's home was
connected with his groundbreaking experiments on electromagnetism (the
unit of electrical inductance called the “henry” is named after Joseph
Henry) which pre-dated those of Samuel Morse and Heinrich Hertz.
Fall 2014
IV
Before elosing, I’ll predict that our guest editorial, “Energizing
Growth in a Bubble Economy,” by emeritus professor Robert Ayres is
sure to generate an interesting response from our conmrunity. Stay tuned
for more thoughts on his “scissors strategy” and, in the meantime, check
out his new book from MIT Press, The Bubble Economy.
And while you’re at the front of the Journal, please note the
addition of a new member to our Journal’s Board of Discipline Editors.
We welcome Dr. Michael Katehakis from Rutgers University whose
areas are Operations Research, Management Science and Business
Analytics.
To close, in this issue we are sad to report on the passing of Joe
Coates, a well-known fellow of our Academy and respected member of
the Washington science policy community.
Sally A. Rood, PhD, Editor
Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences
sallv.rood2@gmail.com
Washington Academy of Sciences
1
Guest Editorial
Energizing Growth in a Bubble Economy
by
Robert U. Ayres
INSEAD, Fountainebleau, France
This guest editorial presents four
theses. First, economic theory today
has not caught up with the changes
in the world since Adam Smith and
David Ricardo when externalities
were comparatively rare and
unusual; today they are pervasive,
thanks to urbanization, networking
and globalization, and the financial
externalities associated with bubbles
now far exceed in damage the profits
to the bubble-makers. Second,
economic growth since that time has
been demand driven because energy
prices kept falling — on average —
until the beginning of this century.
Future growth is not guaranteed in a world of “peak oil,” and oil price
bubbles. It is not certain that our grandchildren will be much richer than
we are. Secular stagnation may be caused by energy constraints. Third,
the policy response by central banks, low and lower interest rates,
creates the condition for the next bubble. This cannot continue. Fourth,
there is a profit opportunity approaching with a huge payoff If grasped,
it will kickstart growth, reduce unemployment, ameliorate the
Greenhouse effect and help solve the problems of the pension funds.
Energy security is back in the news. The U.S. 5^'’ fleet based in
Bahrein proteets the flow of half of the world’s oil exports through the
Straits of Hormuz, yet nine tenths of that output goes to Europe and Asia.
Russia, already the world’s largest producer, wants to drill in the Arctic
with no interference from Greenpeace. China wants to enforce exclusive
rights to drill in the South China Sea. The Obama administration is under
heavy pressure to allow a controversial pipeline to move oil from
Canadian tar sands to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Underlying all this
Fall 2014
activity is a simple fact: every barrel of oil that once cost $10 to find and
produce in Texas or Saudi Arabia has to be replaced by another one that
will cost more than $100 to find and produce. And the economy of every
industrial country, including the U.S., now depends on oil.
There is no doubt that the world economy is under-performing.
The “recovery” from the financial crisis of 2008-9 is too slow (in terms of
GDP growth and employment), and economists are in continuing
disagreement over why and what should be done. The view usually set
forth in the press is that the TART [Troubled Asset Relief Program] of
2008 and subsequent shifts of bank debt to the Federal Reserve Board in
the name of “quantitative easing” (QE) was “too little, too late,” due to
mistaken fears by deficit “scolds” that inflation would erupt at any
moment. True, the scolds have been consistently wrong about the
immediate inflation threat. But neo-Keynesians assume that increasing
stimulus, at the cost of further budgetary deficits, will accelerate GDP
growth enough to keep the increased cost of debt service at a tolerable
level. It worked in the past.
But if the cheap money doesn’t do the job, or does the wrong job
(financing risky investments that cause yet another bubble) what then?
Even a Keynesian optimist must acknowledge that a future of steadily
increasing debt/GDP, without limit, is not possible. This argument is the
conservative justification for a policy of budget-cutting and “austerity.”
But what if the deficit-cutting, as recently experienced in Greece,
Ireland, Portugal and Spain, doesn’t do the job either? There are those who
will argue for still more austerity. But austerity punishes the young, the
old, the disadvantaged and those least able to cope with adversity or to
defend their own interests. Countries with youth unemployment near 50%
have no more room for austerity. Social revolution followed by anarchy
becomes an existential threat.
Why have the economists got it so wrong for so long? Lany
Summers has noted the phenomenon of “secular stagnation” — which
simply means that the standard fomiula for accelerating economic growth
by increasing spending (and borrowing) — isn’t working as it used to.'
But he doesn’t explain why. It is partly because a lot of the money spent
for consumer goods in the U.S. (and increasingly in Europe) goes to
emerging economies {e.g., China), and not to local workers? The stimulus
to U.S. and European economies is minimal. Another reason cheap money
isn’t helping create jobs mav be that too many markets are already
saturated. For most of the 20'" century young boys and men dreamed of
Washington Academy of Sciences
3
owning a car. Then, as they grew up, they wanted a little house with a
pieket fence, then perhaps another car for the wife and a bigger house and
a vacation cottage at the beaeh. Manufacturing cars and houses and all the
stuff that goes into a house has employed a lot of people. But demand for
those goods, by the middle elass, is no longer increasing. Perhaps the
smart i-phone and the i-pad are today’s equivalent of the model T. But if
so, the manufacturing jobs are in China or Thailand and the profits sit in a
bank in the Seyehelles or Lichtenstein to avoid taxes.
Indeed, the middle elass itself is losing ground, as Thomas Piketty
has doeumented so thoroughly. More and more of us are pensioners, but
the pension funds are foreed to buy triple A bonds paying two or two and
a half percent, thanks to cheap money and QE. This means that future
pensioners are going to be poorer, unless the pension funds are allowed to
buy equities as Wall Street eonstantly advises. But, if past investment
bank behavior is any guide, there will be another bursting stoek market
bubble soon. Where will it end?
I think the big missing piece (the elephant not in the room, so to
speak) is energy. Cheap oil, which is the only source of liquid fuel for
ears, trucks, buses and aireraft is running out. The price of oil is mueh
higher than it was a few years ago because new discoveries, whether from
deep in the oeeans, or from shale and tar sands, are very costly. They ean’t
keep priees going down any more. That is an economic headwind. But
burning more fossil fuels thanks to even a feeble recovery, plus more
growth in emerging eeonomies, will also put more Greenhouse Gases in
the atmosphere, making the elimate problem worse. Climate ehange is
already happening. That is another headwind.
What is needed to put the global economy onto a new growth traek
is an international project to make the petroleum-dependent internal
combustion engine obsolete, and the sooner the better. Obviously this will
take money, both for R&D and new production facilities. But there is no
government money to spare in this day of fiscal frugality. Luckily most of
the “new” technology that is needed is not really new. That is eertainly
true of wind turbines, solar power, smart grids, building effieiency and
combined heat and power (CHP). These technologies ean be improved at
the margin, but what really matters is that economies of scale and
learning-by-doing can, and will, bring energy costs down dramatically.
I can foresee a future with rising oil prices on the one hand, but
declining renewables costs on the other. In graphic terms, it resembles a
pair of seissors, with a rising curve (oil priees) and a deelining one
Fall 2014
4
(renewables prices). That looks like an investment opportunity, especially
for those pension funds and insurance companies with future obligations
greater than their existing investment portfolios weighted heavily by
sovereign bonds paying very low returns — and an opportunity which
they can hope to meet. Those institutions are the same ones who bought
mortgage-based bonds in the 2003-08 period, and who got hurt when the
sub-prime mortgage house of cards collapsed. But today we have a
potential source of great future profits by exploiting that energy price gap
— the “scissors,” mentioned above. It should yield investments producing
real products and paying high returns. And luckily, too, plenty of money is
sitting out there in sovereign wealth funds and “offshore” banks to evade
taxes and waiting for something exciting to invest in.
What’s missing? I suggest that long-term thinking by investment
advisors, hedge funds and money managers, plus some imagination, are
the missing ingredients. A few “breakthroughs” here and there (e.g.,
battery storage) will not go amiss. There is a technical problem to create
tradeable investment securities that can finance large-scale investments
with high front-end costs but with increasing long-term returns. Together
they can generate a new economic boom, not just a stock market bubble,
and one not depending on govermnent subsidies (although subsidies can
help in the early years of any boom). Not only that, such a program could
save the planet from overheating. Who’s game to start? Google? Apple?
Microsoft?
Notes
' Larry Summers, 2014. “U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis and
the Zero Lower Bound,” Business Economics, Vol. 49, No. 2, pp. 65-73, National
Association for Business Economics.
“ Thomas Piketty. 2014. Capital in the Twenty-First Centwy. Cambridge, MA; Belknap
Press.
Bio
Robert U. Ayres is a physicist and economist noted for his work
on the role of thermodynamics in the economic process, and more recently
for his investigation of the role of energy in economic growth. He is
emeritus professor of economics and technology at the international
business school INSEAD, in France, where he has continued his life-long,
pioneering studies of materials/energy flows in the global economy. He
Washington Academy of Sciences
5
originated the eoneept of “industrial metabolism,” known today as
“industrial ecology” with its own journal. He is also an Institute Scholar at
the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in
Austria. He is author or co-author of 18 books and more than 200 Journal
articles and book chapters. The most recent are The Economic Growth
Engine with Benjamin Warr (Edward Elgar, 2009) and Crossing the
Energy^ Divide with Edward Ayres (Wharton, 2010). The subject of this
op-ed is presented in a 2014 book from MIT Press entitled The Bubble
Economy.
Dr. Ayres may be contacted at: Robert.AYRES@insead.edu
Fall 2014
Washington Academy of Sciences
Influential Statisticians of Yesteryear Active in
the Washington Statistical Society
7
Michael P. Cohen
American Institutes for Research, Washington, D.C.
Abstract
The Washington Statistical Society (WSS) is the Washington, D.C.,
area chapter of the American Statistical Association (ASA). It has a
rich history that is described on the WSS web pages. In this article, we
profile some influential statisticians of yesteryear who were active in
WSS. The statisticians profiled are Joseph Adna Hill, the Chief
Statistician of the Bureau of the Census and originator of the
Huntington-Hill apportionment method; Ewan Clague, the
distinguished and long-serving Commissioner of Labor Statistics;
Meyer A. Girshick, notable both as an applied statistician and
researcher in decision theory and sequential analysis; Morris H.
Hansen, considered one of the twentieth century’s most influential
survey statisticians; Jerome Cornfield, a leader in transforming
biostatistics into a subject with major concerns with clinical,
biomedical, and epidemiological research; Margaret E. Martin, a key
person in the development of the federal statistical system; Samuel W.
Greenhouse, a pioneer in the use of statistical methods in
epidemiological research and clinical trials; W. Edwards Denting, the
renowned quality management expert; and Joseph Waksberg, a major
developer of modem statistical survey methods.
1. Introduction
The Washington Statistical Society (WSS) is the
Washington, D.C., area chapter of the American Statistical Association
(ASA). It has a membership and level of activity that rivals most national
statistical organizations. The WSS traces its roots back to New Year's
Eve, 1896, when informal ASA meetings began taking place in the
nation’s capital. It was formally organized in 1926 as a branch of the
ASA. The WSS is an affiliate of the Washington Academy of Sciences.
For the complete history of the WSS, see Allen and Conklin
(2012). In this article, we profile some influential statisticians of the past
who were active in WSS.
Fall 2014
8
2. Influential Statisticians of Yesteryear Active in WSS
Among statisticians who worked in the Washington, D.C., area,
some aehieved national and international renown. Here we profile the ones
who took the time and energy to be active in their loeal statistical
organization, the WSS. This being a historieal aeeount, we only include
those deceased 2012 or before. They are discussed here in order of their
key role in WSS.
2.1 Joseph Adna Hill (1860-1938)
Joseph A. Hill was one of the preeminent statisticians of his era
and deserves to be better known today. Originally from New Hampshire,
he did his undergraduate and master’s degree work at Harvard University
(Williams, 1900, p. 34). He then travelled to Germany for doetoral study,
reeeiving a Ph.D. from the University of Halle (now called Martin Luther
University Halle- Wittenberg) in 1892. The same year, he published the
journal article “The Prussian Income Tax” (Hill, 1892). After returning
from Germany, he translated into English from German the book A
History of the Political Economy by Gustav Colm (1894). After several
years teaehing at Harvard and the University of Pennsylvania, he returned
to Europe to investigate European methods of taxation for the
Massachusetts Tax Commission (American Biographical Directories,
1908). The trip resulted in the book The English Income Tax w’ith Special
Reference to Administration and Method of Assessment (Hill, 1899).
In 1898, Hill went to work as a statistician for the Bureau of the
Census, the beginning of a long and extremely productive career there
(Hall, 1912, p. 448). He became their Chief Statistician in 1909 and
Assistant Director in 1921 (Census Bureau, undated). He oversaw the
writing and publication of numerous book-length reports on special U.S.
populations based on unpublished Bureau of the Census data. To name
just a few, there are reports on child labor (Hill, 1907a); women at work
(Hill, 1907b); benevolent institutions (United States Bureau of the Census,
Hill, Bliss, and Koren, 1911); immigrants (Dillingham, Hill, and
Parmelee, 1911); the blind (Brown and Hill, 1915); and prisoners (Hill,
Hunt, and Mead, 1926).
As specified in the U.S. Constitution, representatives to the U.S.
House of Representatives are apportioned among the states based on data
from the Decennial Census carried out by the Bureau of the Census. The
U.S. Constitution does not specify, however, the precise method to use. As
the Chief Statistician, it is natural that Hill would be interested in
Washington Academy of Sciences
9
apportionment. In a report to Congress, Hill (1911) described a new
method of apportionment. Hill’s criterion was to keep the number of
representatives per person in the population as equal as possible among
the states. The Harvard mathematics professor Edward V. Huntington
(1921) showed that the apportionment meeting Hill’s criterion was unique
and provided an algorithm for computing it. The method is now called the
Huntington-Hill method or the method of equal proportions. In 1941,
Congress passed and President Roosevelt signed into law a statute making
the Huntington-Hill method the required method for apportioning the U.S.
House of Representatives, a statute that is still in effect (Young, 2004, pp.
15-16). For some recent insights into the Huntington-Hill method, see
Wright (2012, 2014). Hill had one more publication on apportionment. In
Hill (1920), he described the apportionments depending on the total
number of Representatives in the House (which was not fixed at that
time).
Joseph Adna Hill was fVSS President from 1926 to 1928. He was
the first WSS President after WSS was formally organized as a branch of
the ASA.
2.2 Ewan Clague (1896-1987)
Ewan Clague was one of the 20^'^ Century’s most accomplished and
successful statistical administrators and leaders. From Prescott,
Washington, Clague got his undergraduate education from the University
of Washington and then served in the U.S Army ambulance service in
France during World War I. He later earned a doctorate in economics from
the University of Wisconsin. During the New Deal’s first years, Clague
moved to Washington, D.C., and began his government career. He was
hired to work at the new Social Security Board and later became its
Director. From there he became the Director of the Bureau of Employment
Security. President Truman appointed Clague Commissioner at the Bureau
of Eabor Statistics (BTS) in 1946. He was later re-appointed by Presidents
Eisenhower and Kennedy and also served under President Johnson
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012). Clague became Commissioner during a
contentious period (because of the World War II price controls), but he
came to be regarded favorably by both business and labor because of his
integrity, concern for accuracy, and administrative skills {Los Angeles
Times, 1987). Clague did not like getting individual credit for the
accomplishments of BLS, stating “I am no high-powered statistician, but I
have some of the best in the world working for me.” (Aeiv York Times,
1987).
Fall 2014
10
After retiring as Commissioner, he taught labor economics and
statistics for many years at a number of major universities.
Ewan Clagiie was fVSS President front 1936 to 1937.
2.3 Meyer A. Girshiek (1908-1955)
Meyer Girshiek is renowned for his seminal research contributions
to statistical decision theory and sequential analysis, but he was also an
accomplished applied statistician. Girshiek was born in a small Russian
village but immigrated to the United States at age 15. He received his
college education, including the doctorate, from Columbia University
where he worked under Harold Hotelling (Daley, 1955). He left Columbia
in 1937 for a distinguished period of service in the government, including
work at the Bureau of Home Economics and the Bureau of Agricultural
Economics. Especially noteworthy was his landmark study with Ruth
O’Brien and Eleanor Hunt on the physical measurements of 147,000
American boys and girls, a study that had enormous impact on the
garment manufacturing industry.
Meyer A. Girshiek was WSS Vice President from 1943 to 1944. In
1945, he spent time back at Columbia University to do war-time work
adapting sequential analysis to defense-related inspections. In 1947, he
spent time at the Census Bureau adapting sequential analysis methods to
the control of mass clerical operations. In 1948, he joined the faculty of
Stanford as a Professor of Statistics where he had many productive years.
He was President of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS) in 1952.
According to David Blackwell and Albert H. Bowker (1955), “Girshiek
was notable for his receptivity to new concepts..., his tremendous energy
and drive, the wealth of new ideas and conjectures he produced, and his
persistent and usually successful efforts to get others to work in directions
he considered fruitful.” Girshick’s classic book with Blackwell (1954),
The Theory of Games and Statistical Decisions, is still in print as a Dover
paperback.
2.4 Morris H. Hansen (1910-1990)
According to Benjamin J. Tepping and Joseph Waksberg (the latter
also profiled here) (1992), “Morris Hansen was the most influential
statistician in the evolution of survey methodology in the twentieth
century.” He grew up in Wyoming and received his bachelor’s degree from
the University of Wyoming. After moving to Washington, D.C., to work
Washington Academy of Sciences
for the Census Bureau, he obtained a master’s degree in statistics from
American University. At the Census Bureau, Hansen brought together a
staff that defined and researched the main problems in the conduct of
surveys and developed the methods needed to overcome them. He pushed
the Census Bureau to innovate; these innovations included the purchase of
the first computer for statistical purposes and the development of optical
scanning equipment. In collaboration with researchers like William N.
Hurwitz, Benjamin J. Tepping, and William G. Madow, Hansen conducted
path-breaking research on finite population sampling theory. They
developed the concept of total survey design that incorporates
nonsampling error into the survey design decision process.
After retiring from the Census Bureau, Hansen joined Westat, Inc.,
where he had key consulting roles in the design of the Consumer Price
Index, the Consumer Expenditure Surveys, the National Assessment of
Educational Progress, and other major surveys.
Morris H. Hansen was fVSS President from 1944 to 1945. He
was President of the IMS in 1953 and of the ASA in I960.
2.5 Jerome Cornfield (1912-1979)
Jerome Cornfield was one of the world’s most prominent
biostatisticians for over thirty years and was a leader in transforming
biostatistics to a subject with major concerns with clinical, biomedical,
and epidemiological research (Greenhouse, 1982). He grew up in the
Bronx and attended New York University obtaining a bachelor’s degree in
history (Greenhouse and Halperin, 1980). His only fomial training in
mathematics and statistics was from the U. S. Department of Agriculture
Graduate School where he took courses from, among others, Meyer
Girshick, also profiled here. Although best known for his work in
biostatistics. Cornfield also made important contributions to economic
statistics during the period 1935-1947 when he worked for the Bureau of
Labor Statistics. He was a key figure in the 1938-1940 Consumer Price
Index revision. He introduced new probability sampling ideas into a
wartime study of Family Spending and Saving. Most notable of all was his
consultation with the Bureau of Home Economics on the “Diet Problem”.
The Diet Problem is what we would today call a problem in linear
programming. Cornfield defined the problem rigorously and developed a
method for obtaining approximate solutions, perhaps the first person to do
so for any linear programming problem (Zelen, 1982, p. 12).
Fall 2014
12
In 1947, Cornfield went to work for the statistics unit of the Public
Health Service which became part of the National Institutes of Health
(NIH). In 1960, he left NIH for Johns Hopkins University but then
returned to NIH as an assistant branch chief and then branch chief He
later was a professor at the University of Pittsburgh and The George
Washington University.
His biostatistical contributions touched on every major public
health issue of the time including smoking and health, the safety of polio
vaccines, risk factors for cardiovascular disease, and the estimation of
low-dose carcinogenic effects in human beings. In addition to his
momentous contributions to major medical and public health issues of the
day, Cornfield contributed to research on the foundations of statistics. He
also was at the forefront of introducing Bayesian perspectives into
biostatistics.
Jerome Cornfield was WSS President front 1949 to 1950. He was
President of the ASA in 1974; President of the American Epidemiologic
Society, 1972; Vice President of the American Heart Association, 1970;
and President of the Eastern North American Region of the International
Biometric Society, 1959 to 1960.
2.6 Margaret E. Martin (1912-2012)
Margaret E. Martin played a central role in the development of the
modem U.S. government system of official statistics. Born in New York
City, she earned a bachelor’s degree from Barnard College and master’s
from Columbia University, both with a major in economics. She worked
for a year as a research assistant at Iowa State College and then for two
years at Smith College in Massachusetts. While at Smith College, she did
research that fomied the basis for her Ph.D. dissertation. After earning her
doctorate in economics from Columbia University, she worked for a time
for the New York state government in Albany. She then moved to
Washington, D.C., to work for the Division of Statistical Standards of the
Bureau of the Budget (now called the Office of Management and Budget
or 0MB) where she stayed for 30 years (Straf and Olkin, 1994).
Martin’s field of concentration was statistics on employment,
unemployment, poverty, and income. She was a member of the group that
founded the Current Population Survey. She investigated the disparities
among the three major sources of employment and unemployment data:
the household based Current Population Survey; the establishment surveys
of the Bureau of Labor Statistics; and the insured unemployment data
Washington Academy of Sciences
13
from the Bureau of Employment Security. She chaired the group that
drafted the joint release by the Secretaries of Commerce and Labor on the
employment situation each month. In 1961 and 1962, she served as
executive secretary to a presidential committee analyzing the national
employment statistics. From 1967 to 1973, she headed the portion of the
Statistical Policy Division (formerly the Division of Statistical Standards)
of the Bureau of the Budget that dealt with employment, unemployment,
poverty, and income.
In 1973, Martin retired from federal service to become the
founding executive director of the Committee on National Statistics
(CNSTAT) of the National Academy of Sciences. She retired as executive
director in 1978 but continued to work there part time. She was the sole
editor of the first edition of their Principles and Practices for a Federal
Statistical System (Committee on National Statistics, 1992) and edited or
co-edited later editions. This publication is a key resource for the U.S.
government system of official statistics. With Stephen E. Fienberg, she
edited Sharing Research Data (Committee on National Statistics, 1985).
Margaret E. Martin was WSS President from 1957 to 1958. She
was ASA President in 1980. She passed away in 2012 at the age of 100.
2.7 Samuel W. Greenhouse (1918-2000)
Samuel W. Greenhouse was a pioneer in the use of statistical
methods in research in epidemiology and in the theory and practice of
clinical trials. He received his bachelor’s degree in mathematics from the
City College of New York and went to work for the Bureau of the Census,
working with W. Edwards Deming, also profiled here, from 1940 to 1942.
He served in the Army during World War II and then worked for the
United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Agency, 1945 to 1948. In 1948,
he was recruited to be one of the founding members of the first biometry
group at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) (Lachin and Greenhouse,
undated). He also taught part-time and pursued his own graduate degrees
under Professor Solomon Kullback at The George Washington University,
receiving his Ph.D. in Mathematical Statistics in 1959.
Greenhouse’s biostatistical research contributions included work
on diagnostic tests with applications to noninvasive methods for cancer
screening; methods for analyzing highly correlated psychological data
with applications to the study of human aging; the sequential analysis of
emerging data in clinical trials; and the use of logistic regression in
matched and unmatched case-control studies. He collaborated with Joseph
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14
Gastwirth on a class of problems arising in both legal settings and
epidemiological studies. Greenliouse was a strong believer in close
collaborations with medical scientists and worked with researchers in
cancer, mental health, fertility, and cardiology, among other areas. He
worked for the National Cancer Institute, the National Institute of Mental
Health, the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development,
and The George Washington University.
Samuel W Greenhouse was WSS President 1967 to 1968. He also
served as President of the Eastern North American Region of the
International Biometric Society (Greenliouse, 1997).
2.8 W. Edwards Deming (1900-1993)
Although he came to be world renowned as a “guru” or “prophet”
of quality management, W. Edwards Deming considered himself a
“Consultant in Statistical Studies” (Mann, undated). Deming was born in
Sioux City, Iowa, and grew up in Iowa and Wyoming. He graduated from
the University of Wyoming with a degree in engineering. He got a
master’s degree from the University of Colorado, studying mathematics
and physics (Holusha, 1993). He received a Ph.D. from Yale in
mathematical physics, specializing in the kinetic theory of gases. Even
before formally earning his Ph.D., he began work at the Fixed Nitrogen
Research Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Agriculture where he
stayed for about 1 1 years and produced 38 publications, most having to do
with the physical properties of matter.
He gradually became interested in statistics, and in 1936 went to
London to study with Ronald A. Fisher. While there, he met and attended
lectures by Jerzy Neyman on survey sampling. In 1939, he joined the
Census Bureau as Head Mathematician and Adviser in Sampling. His role
was to help develop a sampling component to the 1940 population census,
a radical idea at the time. In 1940, his important paper with Stephan was
published which developed “raking,” the application of iterative
proportional fitting to the weighting of survey data (Deming and Stephan,
1940).
In 1 946, Deming was asked to go to Japan by the War Department
to study agricultural and other problems to help Japan recover from the
war. He returned to Japan a number of times after that and developed
friendships and influence with the new Japanese managers who had
become prominent after the war. His ideas about quality were influenced
by his admiration of and friendship with Walter A. Shewhart of Bell
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Laboratories and further developed in, c.g., Deming’s books The Ncm’
Economics: For Industry, Government, Education (Doming, 1993) and
Out of the Crisis (Deming, 2000).
W. Edwards Deming was WSS Physical Science and Engineering
Chairperson from 1966 to 1967 and WSS Methodology Section
Chairperson from 1970 to 1971. He was President of the IMS in 1945.
2.9 Joseph Waksberg (1915-2006)
Joseph Waksberg was “... instrumental in developing and
implementing sampling and estimation methods that greatly contributed to
survey research.... [He] left a legacy of innovative methods and
applications...’’ (Brick and Tucker, 2007). Waksberg was born in what is
now Poland, but his family immigrated to the United States when he was
about 6 years old. He graduated from the City College of New York with a
major in mathematics in 1936 at the height of the depression. He took
graduate courses at New York University in the evening while looking for
long-term employment. But Waksberg scored high on the federal civil
service examination in mathematics and was offered a job in Washington,
D.C., with the Navy Department (Morganstein, Marker, and Waksberg,
2000). After his Navy project was completed, he went to work for the
Census Bureau under Morris Hansen, also profiled here. He stayed at the
Census Bureau for 33 years, retiring as an associate director. Two
examples of the innovations he introduced were list sampling combined
with building permit tracking for the Current Population Survey and four-
year rotation sampling for the Annual Housing Survey.
Waksberg’s best known research was in telephone sampling
methods. He took an idea for random digit dialing (RDD) that had been
proposed and used by his close friend Warren Mitofsky at CBS and
developed its statistical properties in his seminal 1978 JASA paper,
“Sampling Methods for Random Digit Dialing.” The Mitofsky-Waksberg
RDD approach prevailed in telephone sampling for many years. Later,
when technological changes lessened the efficacy of the method,
Waksberg did important research in list-assisted telephone sampling. After
retiring from the Census Bureau, Waksberg had a long second career at
Westat, Inc., eventually becoming Chairman of the Board there.
Joseph Waksberg was WSS President from 1974 to 1975.
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3. Summary
The following nine statistieians of the past were profiled in this
article, having been active in the Washington Statistical Society in the
Washington, D.C., area (seven of this group, for example, served as WSS
presidents):
• Joseph Adna Hill
• Ewan Cl ague
• Meyer A. Girshick
• Morris H. Hansen
• Jerome Cornfield
• Margaret E. Martin
• Samuel W. Greenhouse
• W. Edwards Deming
• Joseph Waksberg
Each of these statisticians was influential in his or her career. Hill was
Chief Statistician of the Bureau of the Census and originator of the
Huntington-Hill apportionment method. Clague was a distinguished and
long-serving Commissioner of Labor Statistics. Girshick was notable both
as an applied statistician and as a researcher in decision theory and
sequential analysis. Hansen is considered one of the twentieth century’s
most influential survey statisticians. Cornfield was a leader in
transforming biostatistics into a subject with major concerns with clinical,
biomedical, and epidemiological research. Martin was a key person in the
development of the federal statistical system. Greenhouse was a pioneer
in the use of statistical methods in epidemiological research and clinical
trials. Deming is a renowned quality management expert. Waksberg was
a major developer of modern statistical survey methods.
Acknowledgements
A very special thanks goes to Rich Allen for organizing,
researching, and writing Washington Statistical Society, Past and Present.
The work of Joseph Conklin in updating it is also greatly appreciated.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Bio
Michael P. Cohen is a Principal Sampling Statistician at the
American Institutes for Research. He is a retired federal employee and
former President of the Washington Academy of Sciences (WAS) and of
the Washington Statistical Society. Dr. Cohen is a Fellow of the American
Educational Research Association, the American Statistical Association
(ASA), the Royal Statistical Society, and the WAS. He is an Elected
Member of the International Statistical Institute and Sigma Xi. He is a
member and vice chair of the ASA Committee on Archives and Historical
Materials.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Innovation Pipeline Management: Lessons Learned
from the Federal Government and Private Sector
Bhavya Lai and Nayanee Gupta
IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington, D.C.
Abstract
This study was focused on examining a set of programs in both the
public and private sectors to determine whether lessons from the
programs could be applied toward successful innovation pipeline
management (1PM) by government agencies. Building upon a review of
the literature on innovation, and discussions with leaders of innovation,
the study team identified practices that could serve as models for
government agencies seeking to improve their innovative capacity. The
team identified practices for consideration at each stage of the
innovation pipeline. This includes, for example: creating realistic
visions; sourcing early-stage ideas; implementing phase-gate (or stage-
gate) processes; providing funding; and, scaling up the best ideas.
While the identified practices are not directly transferable as-is, they
provide useful food-for-thought as government agencies transform their
processes and systems to adjust to the challenges of the twenty-first
century.
1. Introduction
There are several government initiatives to promote innovation,
both within and across government agencies. Some are intended to
eliminate waste by bringing in a “skunk works” style external group along
the lines of Technology Fellows programs or the Food and Drug
Administration’s Entrepreneurs in Residence. Others involve providing
innovation funds within agencies to promote new ideas for fulfilling the
organization’s mission and providing better services at a lower cost, such
as the Department of Education’s Investing in Innovation (i3) fund.
We examined a subset of government funding programs in detail to
see if lessons from these programs and others in the private sector could
be extended to government funding organizations to help them better
manage their innovation processes. Table 1 includes a non-exhaustive list
of such Federal Agencies and programs (old and new) with approximate
funding levels in 201 1 .
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Table 1. Federal Agency/Programs and Funding.
Sources: See Appendix A Requested for FY2012
Using information from a review of the literature and discussions
with innovation leaders in the private and public sectors, we identified
practices that could serve as models for government agencies seeking to
improve their innovative capacity by, for example: creating realistic
visions; sourcing early stage ideas; implementing a phase-gate (or stage-
gate) process; providing funding; and scaling-up the best ideas. The
following sections summarize these practices. See Appendix B below for
details about our methodology.
Note that the practices showcased here are illustrative only;
innovation is a broad and fluid concept, and not all practices can be
transferred between the private and public sectors or between different
agencies with different missions. While we acknowledge this potential for
non-transferability, we present these general practices from the public
sector and private industry together according to innovation pipeline stage
in this article; readers can examine the practices that are most relevant to
them through detailed discussion summaries available in a longer report
released this year.'
We begin here with a brief definition of the term “innovation
pipeline.”
2. Defining the Innovation Pipeline
While it is by no means a linear process, innovation is typically
visualized as a “pipeline,” which includes inputs, processes, and outputs.
The temi “innovation pipeline management” is an umbrella term used to
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describe the process used to analyze and manage early-stage concepts
(O’Connor and Ayers, 2005; Paulson, O’Connor and Robeson, 2007;
Roseno, 2008).
These activities are generally described as an arrangement of
phases that could be distilled down to five general categories: (a) visioning
and problem definition; (b) idea generation; (c) idea selection; (d)
developing, testing and prototyping; and (e) implementation, scale-up and
diffusion. Some experts characterize the pipeline as a “funnel” (as distinct
from a straight-lined “tunnel”), with a high number of ideas in the early
phases, combined with mechanisms to develop, evaluate and select the
most valuable ideas (Hayes et al., 1998; Jost, Lorenz and Mischke, 2005).
The funnel highlights the boundary of the organization, and emphasizes
the stage gate process of the innovation. In recent years, the process has
been viewed as being “open” with ideas entering and exiting the system at
all phases; see the notional “holes” in the diagram shown in Figure 1
below (Chesbrough, 2004).
Note: Feedback loops between stages are implied, not shown
Figure 1. Notional Innovation Pipeline.
Despite the linear look, the process is a continuous cycle with
feedback loops between each stage, and one where learning occurs
through upstream and downstream activities.
These phases are not always distinct or separate, but it is worth
considering them separately, as such a conceptualization reinforces that
the innovation process does have different stages, and that it is possible for
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different skills and methodologies to be needed at each stage. For
example, idea generation is often about creativity, whereas idea selection
needs to be informed by careful analysis, and an understanding of the
problems at hand and the strategy and constraints facing the organization.
Successfully scaling up, commercializing, or diffusing ideas depends on
being able to distill the core attributes of the innovation, how and why it
worked, and understanding what key aspects need to be replicated for it to
succeed in different contexts.
The later stages tend to require greater focus on project
management skills, whereas earlier phases require greater focus on
managing how new ideas are generated and converted into implementable
plans. Some ideas need to be integrated into the systems already in place
and making it part of a new status quo. The actual implementation of these
phases is highly dependent on the organizational goals and culture.
3. Leading Practices by Innovation Stage
A. Problem Definition
Problem definition refers to up-front articulation of the vision of an agency or program.
While this stage is not always exclusively separated from idea generation, some
conceptualizations of the innovation pipeline include a specific stage before ideation,
where a problem statement and boundaries are introduced that will guide the innovation
process (Bonvillian and Van Atta, 2011).
The innovation process starts with a pre-ideation visioning or
problem definition phase, during which the goals and expectations of the
process are articulated. Visioning brings focus to the innovation activity,
ensuring that it is aligned with the organization’s goals and mission, and is
beginning to define milestones and targets for different aspects of the
innovation. Different organization types can lead to different goals of the
visioning process: Within government, leaders at the Defense Advanced
Research Projects Agency (DARPA), for example, define a challenge
based on a mission need, whereas businesses typically target a gap in the
marketplace. However, a common characteristic of a well-executed
visioning process is the management of uncertainty by starting with a
partial vision and gradually refining into a more developed idea and
program. Visioning is typically led from the top, but can be executed
through a grassroots process where different people bring different
expertise to help define different pieces of an innovative idea.
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This section brielly describes the visioning process at two
government organizations (DARPA and the Department of Energy’s
Siinshot Initiative) and two private sector organizations (Boeing and
Apple).
Practice #1 — DARPA was established in 1958 to “prevent
strategic surprise from negatively impacting U.S. national security, and
create strategic surprise for U.S. adversaries by maintaining the
technological superiority of the U.S. military.” Carlton (2010) and
Bonvillian and Van Atta (2011) describe the unique approach in which
DARPA develops its vision:
• Articulate the challenge rather than a teehnology solution.
DARPA leaders do not articulate an overarching vision; instead,
they articulate challenges. These challenges, which are discussed
internally on a rolling basis, focus on the prevention and creation
of threats that are relevant now and in the near future. Based on
this identification of the articulated threat, the Agency Director
hires a program manager who refines the vision of the challenge —
this refining and fine-tuning of the vision occurs primarily at the
program level rather than the Agency level (see Figure 2).
DAPRA
focuses ^
here
Project / Product Vision
Source: Carlton (2010)
Figure 2. Level of Visioning at DARPA.
• Clear dimensions of the vision. Since its early days, DARPA
created a catch phrase known as “DARPA Hard.” A DARPA Hard
vision has four attributes (Carlton, 2010), as depicted in Figure 3.
Since the vision typically addresses hard problems at DARPA,
program managers ensure that they push the limits of innovation
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26
sought. It is actionable — in that program visions are intentionally
grounded in reality because they are expected to improve and
extend the limits of existing technologies. It is multidisciplinary —
so that program managers redefine problems outside of usual
boundaries, drawing from more than one discipline. Last, but not
least, it is far-reaching — DARPA program managers think big,
and plan long-term in order to have a broad impact in society.
Feedback + Learning
Source: Carlton (2010)
Figure 3. Emergent Path to Vision.
• Iterative development. Typically, the DARPA Hard vision is set
through its program managers, who are hired deliberately for their
visions of technology, even if partially formed. DARPA leadership
recognizes the limitations of their initial missions, and program
managers use two primary mechanisms — expert workshops and
proof-of-concepts — to go from partial into clear visions. Through
expert workshops, program managers engage their networks, and
the networks serve as a way to gain perspective through dialogue
among trusted colleagues. Proof-of-concepts explore and test the
feasibility of an emerging idea. Each proof-of-concept serves as a
directed demonstration, a way to demonstrate feasibility and test
early intuition before undertaking a new technical initiative.
(Carlton, 2010; Bonvillian and Van Atta, 2011).
Practice #2 — The Sunshot Initiative at the Department of Energy
(DOE) provides a public sector example of effective visioning to similarly
define an ambitious quantified innovation problem. Sunshof s stated goal
is to reduce the installed cost of solar energy systems by 75% over the
next decade (to $1 per watt installed) to achieve full competitiveness with
fossil fuels for electricity generation. Starting with this broad goal of
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27
aggressive cost reduction, DOE convened experts from the solar industry,
consultants, academia, and the public sector through a series of workshops
to discuss how realistic such a large cost reduction was, and how quickly it
could be achieved. The department convened these diverse experts to
discuss not only the cost reduction goal and timeline, but also the
organizational structure necessary to help solve the crosscutting problems
to achieve the goal. After the initial scoping workshop, Sunshot has
continued to engage external experts on visioning for different subparts of
the overall innovation challenge, such as for different types of solar
generation technologies and components. Similar to Boeing’s strategy of
engaging diverse experts within its organization (described below), the
Sunshot Initiative shows how engaging a diverse set of experts can lead to
specific goals and timelines for innovation projects.
Practice #3 — At Boeing, the world’s leading aerospace company
and the largest manufacturer of commercial jetliners and military aircrafts,
visioning begins through gap identification by senior leadership who
utilize Intellectual Property and Research and Development (R&D)
strategies to identify gaps the company may wish to move into. A manager
may identify a new business area for the company, and she moves to
gather market information to identify the potential. However importantly,
at this point the idea may lack vital content, such as a marketing or
manufacturing strategy, or a feasible delivery timeline, or even knowledge
as to whether someone else in the company is already working to move
into the market. The “idea fragment” thus needs further definition that can
only be achieved through interaction with others in the company who may
be experts in these different areas. These new interactions may bring
different ways of thinking, new “idea fragments,” and different pieces of
information relevant to more fully defining the innovative idea and the
process to make it work.
Boeing utilizes ideation software to bring together relevant experts
in these different areas of the company around the manager’s “challenge
question” about how to target her innovative idea fragment. By
encouraging interaction with a diverse set of experts in different parts of
the business, the original idea fragment can become more refined and
eventually turn into a cluster of idea fragments that can help bound a plan,
including initial estimates of cost, market size, and date of delivery.
Previous iterations of Boeing’s innovation system allowed employees to
bring any type of idea into the process, but this led to a fragmented set of
ideas that lacked an integrated strategy and the support of senior
management. The new process brings together management support and
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on-the-ground experts to identify an innovation goal with quantified
targets and deadlines that can be developed further down the pipeline.
Practice #4 — Apple Inc., one of the world’s best-known
technology companies, has become a leader in innovation by changing the
way people interact with the technologies that they use. This has enabled
the company to create new markets at the convergence of the
communications, music, and entertainment industries in ways that no other
company had done before.
Apple’s success in defining a vision comes from a keen sense of
the customer and the market by immersing itself in the customer
environment and asking lots of “why” questions to explore the ins and
outs of customer decision making (Breillatt, 2008). Apple’s innovation
process does not go along the conventional route of gauging customer
needs through market research, but by studying the behaviors of those who
they think will be early adopters, and focusing on removing the barriers to
technology adoption from their perspective. The company also has a
significant number of collaborations which allow it to move beyond a
loose complementary set of products and services towards a unified
solution that allows customers to use their products seamlessly. Thus,
Apple’s innovations reflect the vision of tapping into the “latent” —
existing, but not yet articulated — needs of its customers.
B. Idea Generation
Idea generation or ideation refers to finding, adapting or creating the original set of
ideas. Working within the vision/problem definition, different members of the innovation
team add different ideas for accomplishing the innovation goal.
Ideas for new business products or government services can come
from either inside or outside of the innovative organization. In general,
ideation from inside an organization can lead to small changes in how a
product or service is made or delivered, since the organization’s
employees have detailed knowledge of these processes. External ideas can
be useful for plotting new courses of action, new products, or new
processes for an organization to achieve. An organization may be biased
toward the status quo, and outsiders can bring fresh perspectives on
market or service opportunities. There are notable examples of both
grassroots and outside idea generation practices in the public and private
sectors.
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Grassroots idea generation — a process which allows employees
who may not be in decision-making positions to bypass management
approval and initiate or follow through on an innovative idea — does
much to infuse a culture of innovative thinking and risk taking within the
organization. However, grassroots idea generation can only lead to
innovation when employees are encouraged to act on their ideas. This
section provides brief descriptions of ideation practices at the U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Amazon, Procter &
Gamble (P&G), and Apple.
Practice #1 — The HHSinnovates program in the Department of
Health and Human Services provides one example of grassroots idea
generation. HHSinnovates is a program aimed at recognizing and fostering
a culture of innovation, while making use of technology platforms to
overcome the challenges of implementing the program across a large and
varied agency. The goal of the program is to highlight innovation
occurring within HHS and spotlight and incentivize the innovators via
recognition from agency leadership. An integrated information technology
platform also provides an agency-wide repository of innovative ideas that
everyone can access, and perhaps use and expand upon.
An HHSinnovates contest typically solicits ideas that originate
from collaborations among HHS employees, and can potentially be scaled
up or have broad applicability across the entire agency. The visibility
afforded by the contest has allowed some ideas to become bigger than
originally anticipated (such as the “text4Baby” service administered by the
National Healthy Mother Healthy Baby Coalition) or to find a much wider
usage across the agency (such as the National Database for Autism
Research, NDAR, a data repository and portal used by several HHS
divisions).
Practice #2 — In the private sector, the online firm Amazon.com
Inc., a multinational electronic commerce company and the world’s largest
online retailer, is an example of how grassroots innovation can be
incentivized and rewarded by senior management. CEO Jeff Bezos is a
champion of small innovations that can increase efficiencies and reduce
the cost of delivering Amazon’s products to its customers. Employees are
incentivized to move forward on their innovative ideas quickly without
waiting for management permission through a “Just do it” award that is
presented to an employee for implementing a well thought-out idea to
increase efficiency. Because this is championed by senior management,
employees know that they will not be penalized if their idea does not work
Fall 2014
30
perfectly. Management makes it known that it is continually trying to find
barriers to imiovation and remove them so that new ideas are always
welcome.
Practice #3 — Procter and Gamble (P&G), a Fortune 500
American multinational corporation that manufactures a wide range of
consumer goods, uses its Connect and Develop program to look outward
— tapping a vast proprietary supplier network (with over 50,000 R&D
staff), web-based talent markets, entrepreneurs, academics and
goverrmient labs — and connect with external sources of new ideas. An
internal analysis of customer needs and adjacency maps results in
technology briefs that define the specific problem the company is trying to
solve. These briefs are then sent to networks of technology entrepreneurs
and supplier networks worldwide who tap into a wide range of
government and private institutions to identify promising product ideas
and technologies for the company. In this way, P&G is able to leverage
the talents of a potential 1.5 million researchers and idea generators in its
worldwide network, in addition to its 7,500-strong research staff. The
company then applies its own R&D, marketing, manufacturing, and
purchasing ideas to further develop the sourced ideas, and create better
and cheaper products in a shorter timeframe (Huston, 2006).
Practice #4 — Apple Inc.’s strategy for idea generation (and
indeed selection) follows a non-linear, emergent process, walking the line
between creativity and product strategy. The process draws on intense
brainstorming sessions by Apple’s design and product teams where the
emphasis is on no-rules-involved creative thinking alternating with
solution-focused production meetings. The production meeting is used to
ground the ideas in some structure, rules, and limits, which are deemed
essential to focus the problem solving process. This process allows the
different people within the company to present diverse views, while at the
same time moving the ideas towards a cohesive concept. This way, an
overall product strategy emerges out of directed creative thinking, keeping
options open to the best extent possible while slowly moving towards a
production mindset as the process progresses.
C. Idea Selection
Idea selection refers to picking which ideas to pursue for further development. In most
cases, the selection phase refers to a process designed to elicit progressively more detail
about a concept. The intent is to gather the necessary and sufficient information to Justify
allocating the minimum funds to advance a concept to the next phase, or relegating it to
the repository. Each of the selection sub-phases are increasingly more costly, in the sense
of the level of effort required.
Washington Academy of Sciences
31
A large number of ideas from an initial solicitation typically need
to be down-selected to a tenth or less of the number of ideas. The initial
stages of the innovation pipeline, particularly the idea selection process is
about managing uncertainty (as opposed to product strategy, which is
about managing risk"^). The idea selection process is typically staged, with
increasingly detailed criteria and rigorous questioning as the concept is
transformed into a viable strategy. Three idea selection strategies in
government and the private sector are summarized below.
Practice #1 — P&G has an innovation fund for supporting early-
stage innovation with seed funds. A new idea is typically funded following
a staged selection process during which the innovating team is asked to
pitch its idea to senior management, facing increasing rigor in criteria and
questioning as the ideas move up the chain. The team initially has 90 days
to “stage gate” the idea to the Chief Teclinology Officer (CTO) and
Innovation Program Managers, presenting a business case for the idea, and
answering “killer questions” about the value of the idea to the company.
The close involvement of senior management during the selection
process has two big advantages, among others: from a position at the
“seams,” senior leadership is often able to see a broader applicability for a
new concept than people who are closer to the idea. Senior management is
also able to foster the development of a new idea in a business unit where
it may not fit into the existing culture or an organizational group where it
might get overwhelmed by “corporate antibodies.”
Practice #2 — The key to ensuring a competitive selection process
in the government is transparency. A culture of transparency can do much
to encourage innovation from within, and ensure that the best ideas go
forward. As part of the Open Government Initiative, the Department of
Education launched “data.ed.gov” as a portal to publish data about its
grant programs, allowing the education community to access and analyze
the data on its own. The first competitive grant program featured on this
portal is the Investing in Innovation (i3) Fund which establishes a
“pipeline” of funding to generate new innovations, rigorously validate the
effectiveness of promising programs, and scale the most effective ones
across the country.
The i3 program solicits proposals from state and local educational
agencies, nonprofits and school consortia; the applications are rated in a
peer review process by an external group of reviewers. The program has
embraced an unprecedented culture of transparency by providing detailed
information on all the applications on an open government website at the
Fall 2014
close of the contest application deadline (Table 2 below lays out the
Fund’s evaluation criteria). For the highest rated applications, a detailed
narrative, including reviewers comments and raw scores are also made
publicly available on the open government website. In addition, i3
encourages public-private partnerships by requiring its grantees to obtain a
set amount of matching funds as part of the award criteria.
Table 2. i3 Selection Criteria and Weights.
Source: http://vvvvvv.aasa.oro/iiploadedFiles/Policv and Advocacv/files/i3-at-a-glance FY2011.pdf
Practice #3 — Developing an increasingly rigorous staged
selection process with feedback loops ensures a high level of quality and
accountability from the selecting panel. In this regard, the Advanced
Research Projects Agency - Energy (ARPA-E) was created within the
DOE in 2009 as part of the America COMPETES Act ^ to “foster
disruptive innovation in the complex, established legacy sector of energy.”
While still relatively new, this program offers a model here — a review
process that gives applicants the ability to interact with program staff and
provide rebuttals of their application reviews.
Figure 4 illustrates the Agency’s 3 -stage selection process starting
with a call for concept papers (which are seleeted for subject matter
relevance) followed by a full-length application submission. A unique
feature of the review is the third stage, where the solicitation process is re-
opened for the applicants to review all comments and provide a short
rebuttal, which could include new data. This “second shot” and “feedback
loop” makes the program managers more careful with respect to their
review (since they know their conclusions will be critiqued), and makes
the agency better educated on technology developments. More
importantly, it has resulted in a number of reconsiderations of
applications, as reviewers may not completely understand an innovative
Washington Academy of Sciences
33
technology upon their first view. By allowing proposers to rebut reviewer
comments, the agency will understand the technologies and risks better,
improving the quality of the overall portfolio.
r
Concep< Paper Revtcw
V
t .\f> f*^-
FOA
Issued
Concept Paper
ConcepI Paper feedback Provided
Submissions
Full Application Review
# -Vf’’
• .1 I#
,W"SS«^ ♦Viasrjfipf'-. * •
Review RebutUl
o<''
^ Ifss 4
• ^1 ,T «
■ ■ aji/ ♦*»'.« » •) jp < «■ •.•r* '
e*v«psA \ ■.» t*A .M* •
Full App.
Submission
Fail Appticatton
Feedback Provided
Applicant
Response
Final Selection
Recommervdations
► 5-7 page summary
F Limits applicant
expenses
F Reviewer comments
provided to
applicants
F Review by external,
leading experts in
the field
F External revie^vs
critical to decision
making - but scores
do not get rack and
stacked
F Applicants respond
to reviews before
selections
F Clarification
improves final
decisions
Source: http://arpa-e.energv.gov/LinkClick.aspx?Fileticket=AVrKiAoZx9E%3d&tabid=414
Figure 4. ARPA-E Idea Selection and Review Process.
D. Development, Testing, and Piloting
Development, testing and piloting refers to the evolution of an idea or concept toward a
viable product offering, which must then be piloted to an early-adopter community.
Evidence of consumer interest or market need and alignment with organizational strategy
are some of the crucial factors that launch a successful prototype fi'om a pilot to an
implementation and scale-up phase.
Because of increased access to an open source environment, agile
software, and iterative development in recent years, it has become possible
to test and prototype faster with much less waste. This allows for
hypothesis-driven experimentation. It’s the concept underlying “build-
measure-learn feedback loops”: take an action, make something, measure
it, have users respond, learn from the data, and use it to impact the next
idea — and all on a fast turnaround basis (Ries, 2011). This section briefly
describes approaches at the Nordstrom Innovation Lab, Centers for
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34
Medicare and Medicaid Services’ Innovation Center, and ARPA-E. While
all are nascent organizations, the practices are interesting enough to be
highlighted.
Practice #1 — The Nordstrom Innovation Lab, within the upscale
department store chain Nordstrom, is an example of hypothesis-driven
experimentation at a large corporation. The Lab is a collaborative
workspace housed in the Office of the Chief Information Officer (CIO),
which uses ideas from the concepts of both lean manufacturing and lean
startup (see Figure 5), and tests its experiments with “customers using
human-centered design strategies and tactics” (as described by Ries,
2011). Only ideas with a high uncertainty associated with them filter down
to the lab, and are tested on a short-turnaround basis (the longest
experiment is four weeks long). In some cases, the lab sets up shop
physically in a retail store for the entire week where the lab team builds
products, tests new features, and gets feedback — all out on the retail
floor. By talking face-to-face with customers, salespeople, and managers
in a physical store, the innovation team is able to identify an opportunity
that it can execute extremely quickly, in weeklong increments. These
simple, rapid, experiments allow the Nordstrom Innovation Lab to identify
a “minimum viable producf ’ (or process)^ for which prototype ideas can
be tested against very quickly — taking weeks and months, not years. This
allows services and products to be built on the micro scale level, and
scaled up iteratively.
Once the lab shows an idea to be viable and feasible, the sponsor
of the idea, along with the lab, “pitches” it to the Imiovation Committee
(which comprises the senior leadership of Nordstrom). The Innovation
Committee acts as a venture fund, and depending upon the strength of the
business plan presented, either funds the idea for scale-up or not.
Practice #2 — The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’
Pioneer initiative is an example of hypothesis-driven experimentation in
the government. Established under the Affordable Care Act (2010), the
goal of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI) is to
transform the way that healthcare is delivered for Medicare and Medicaid
patients by rapidly testing imiovative care and payment models that are
patient-focused and by encouraging widespread adoption of practices that
deliver better health care at lower cost. CMMI has launched a Pioneer
Accountable Care Organization (ACO) initiative which accepts
solicitations from groups of providers who have experience working
together providing care for patients.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Source: Blank (2010)
Figure 5. Illustration of the “Build-Measure-Learn” Feedback Loops.
Selected after a rigorous competitive process, the ACOs are
required to demonstrate the effectiveness of their proposed innovative
payment models and to demonstrate how they can help experienced
organizations to provide better care for beneficiaries. The ACOs selected
for the Pioneer awards are given 1 8 months to implement their ideas on a
small scale, and at the end of that time they are evaluated on raw data
(claims data recording patient experiences) as well as pre-set quality
measures. At the end of the pilot phase, the most effective solutions will
be scaled up.
Practice #3 — ARPA-E, while still a nascent Agency, emphasizes
rapid diffusion of research breakthroughs via testing, prototyping and
piloting through a process it labels “Envision-Engage-Evaluate-Establish-
Execute” (Bonvillian and Van Atta, 2011).
In order to develop and test technologies, ARPA-E works “in-
reach” within DOE to move its technologies into the applied side, and has
created ties with DOD for test bed possibilities, and testing initial market
capability. DOD and ARPA-E have recently collaborated on projects for
use in military installations, such as battery storage and power electronics
Fall 2014
36
for micro-grids and highly energy efficient eooling (Hourihan and Stepp,
2011).
ARPA-E program managers use aggressive milestones, which
serve them well during testing and prototyping stages. They have regular
eontact — at least two site visits a year and formal quarterly reviews with
all awardees. In addition, they help identify and resolve teehnical issues,
and hold annual community meetings. While, in most research agencies,
the job of the program manager is to seleet the awards, at ARPA-E,
program managers view their jobs as technology enablers, helping
stakeholders with implementation barriers. Constant monitoring and
interactions enable the program offieers to cut projects, as needed. If the
Principal Investigator (PI) starts missing milestones, the milestones are
either renegotiated or given one more quarter before the projeet is
terminated. To date, ARPA-E has stopped 6 out of 120 projects, although
20 - 40% of the projects have received some fomi of a warning regarding
their milestones.
E. Implementation/Scale Up
Idea implementation refers to putting the ideas into practice, keeping the innovative
initiative going and integrating it — which includes monitoring and adapting where
necessary — and diffusion (sharing and spreading the ideas).
In terms of conceptualizing the pipeline, onee a produet or idea has
been developed and tested, it moves from the innovation to the product
pipeline. The final version of the produet is piloted before a small test
audience to gauge customer reaction before committing the resourees to a
full-scale roll-out, and at this point the organization draws upon its
operational and managerial experienee to suecessfully scale up and/or
commereialize the product.
In the publie sector, scale-up and deployment are as much a
function of policy and economy as technology or program structure. Thus,
it is erucial for agencies to put into plaee poliey mechanisms that support
the seale-Lip process. This could range from building community support
for product deployment to obtaining Congressionally mandated authority
to internally approve deployment. This section highlights emerging
implementation-related practices at CMMI, DARPA, and ARPA-E.
Practice #1 — In government agencies, poliey and regulation play
a central role during the deployment of a produet or service. Therefore, a
key to successful seale-up is to identify or establish a poliey mechanism
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that can make this process efficient. The Center lor Medicare and
Medicaid Innovation (CMMI) is an example of a fund with a legislative
mandate to quickly scale up and roll out an innovative program which has
been demonstrated and validated.
The CMMTs Pioneer Accountable Care Organization initiative
awards groups of providers (or ACOs) who have experience working
together providing care for patients. The ACOs have 18 months to
demonstrate the effectiveness of their proposed innovative payment
models and how they can help experienced organizations provide better
care for beneficiaries. At the end of the designated trial period, the
successful programs will result in new across-the-board regulations in the
way Medicare and Medicaid service providers deliver and are paid for
their services. This roll-out of changes in health care policy is anticipated
to occur in fewer than six months, in large part because CMMI has the
legislative mandate to implement them.
Practice #2 — While the full-scale DARPA model is difficult to
implement, agencies keen on scale-up and implementation can adapt
aspects of it. Two aspects of the DARPA model, in particular, stand out.
The first is DARPA’ s role as a convener and instigator in a community
that Bonvillian and Van Atta (2011) term “change-state advocates.”
Developing a broad community creates a close-knit network of individuals
who know and trust each other, breaking down information/collaboration
barriers. This community confluence, in turn, creates a connection with
the private sector and its ability to spur implementation.
A related second aspect of the DARPA model is DARPA’ s
funding approach. DARPA requires entities from multiple sectors
including academic researchers, small companies, and “skunk works”
operations of larger corporate R&D shops to work together. This enforced
partnership ultimately has the potential to improve the handoff from
research to development and ease transition from research into
implementation.
Practice #3 — Similar to DARPA, ARPA-E proactively seeks out
“white spaces” where it can fill a vital gap in early stage R&D (Majumdar,
2011). ARPA-E’s focus is not simply on new technology, but rather a
plausible pathway to implementation. The program staff generally has
both academic and commercial sector experience, which ranges from work
in venture capital firms and companies, to participating in technology-
based start-up firms. This breadth of background in both the academic and
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private sectors assists in understanding alternative commercialization
pathways (Bonvillian and Van Atta, 2011).
ARPA-E has taken other steps to accelerate scale up and
implementation as well, starting with encouraging consideration of the
implementation process in the selection of technology projects (during the
visioning phase, they evaluated, already, the technology “stand-up”
process and how that might evolve). ARPA-E, in effect, has added a
variation to DARPA’s famous “Heilmeier Catechism” by requiring
program leaders to “tell me how your story will end and how you will get
there” (Bonvillian and Van Atta, 2011).
Within the agency, a set-aside commercialization group works
with project managers to move their technologies into implementation.
ARPA-E has also held two highly successful community-building energy
technology summits, which helped, among other events, to develop broad
support community. The 2011 summit brought together over 2,000
stakeholders from across the energy ecosystem — researchers,
entrepreneurs, investors, corporate executives, and govermuent officials
— to share ideas for developing and deploying the next generation of
clean energy technologies, and showcased more than 200 transformational
technologies and organizations. ^ At pre-conference workshops and
networking sessions, participants got the opportunity to share ideas with
ARPA-E program managers, global industry leaders, and energy
technologists.
ARPA-E encourages the formation of industry consortia around its
projects and is planning to use legislative prize authority given to it via the
COMPETES Act (Bonvillian and Van Atta, 2011). Similar to DARPA,
ARPA-E awards create a “halo effect” around the awarded projects, and
have encouraged venture capitalists (VCs) and other private funders to use
the funding as a basis for identifying “the next big thing.” Since its
creation, ARPA-E’s $360 million in public funding has leveraged $285
million in follow-on private investment (Hourihan and Stepp, 2011).
Practice #4 — In private companies such as P&G, once an
innovation has been developed and prototyped, it moves from the
innovation pipeline to the product pipeline. The product strategy phase
includes manufacturing, marketing and later-stage commercialization
considerations. At this point, the innovative product is housed in one of
the mainline business units which is responsible for rolling out the
product.
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F. Cross-Cutting Practices
Some practices are not unique to any particular stage, and apply
across the board to all stages of the innovation process. One of the most
critical of these is the nurturing of a culture of innovation. This is
exemplified by Amazon.com where employees are encouraged to act upon
innovative ideas, and “just do if’ without needing approval from
management. An important element of a culture of innovation is the
acknowledgement that innovations will often fail; but if the process has
been a learning experience, then it is not really a failure. Strong innovators
believe in “Fail fast, learn your lesson, and move on” as is practiced at
Nordstrom.
Another cross-cutting element of innovation is the role played by
highly motivated and qualified employees. DARPA and ARPA-E have
built an almost mystical reputation of hiring world-class talent. Program
managers are drawn from industry, universities, and government
laboratories and R&D centers, mixing disciplines and theoretical and
experimental strengths. This talent is further “hybridized” through joint
corporate-academic collaborations (Carlton, 2010). No special authorities
have been used for making such hires, and this practice needs to be
incorporated more generally in the government.
To nurture innovation across all stages, the participation of
individuals who sit at the “seams” of organizations, and have a broad and
integrative view of the organization as well as its challenges are essential.
Such individuals can combine related ideas for broader applicability. P&G
is a strong embodiment of this culture.
Since innovation is about managing uncertainty, it is, by definition,
hard to measure. Innovation is also too uncertain to spend years perfecting
an idea. Successful innovators in government and industry cite the
importance of quick and ongoing measurement against a desired outcome,
so that one can quickly re-assess strategies, if needed. Companies like
Boeing have developed an analytical valuation model for the non-linear,
emergent process through which an innovation develops into a concrete
product strategy.
At the other end of the spectrum, service providing organizations
such as CMMl and Amazon develop quality measures of customer
responsiveness (such as a reduction in the number of complaint calls, or
claims information documenting patient care) based on the behavior of
those involved before and after the innovation. Whether qualitative or
Fall 2014
40
quantitative, the use of metrics is an important cross-cutting element of the
innovation pipeline.
4. Summary
Building on a review of the literature and discussions with
innovation leaders in the government and private sectors, we have
identified practices worth considering and emulating for each of the stages
of an innovation pipeline. While these practices are not directly
transferable as-is, they provide useful food-for-thought as government
agencies transform their processes and systems to adjust to the challenges
of the twenty-first century.
With respect to defining the problem and creating a vision,
organizations interested in effective visioning do not make the process
unfettered. Their focus can be challenge-centric (as at DARPA or DOE’s
Sunshot Initiative), user-centric (as at Boeing or Apple) or technology-
centric (as at Sunshot). Gap identification is a critical part of visioning. As
at Procter & Gamble and Boeing, insights are found both in adjacent
spaces and with disruptive ideas.
For the ideation stage, innovative use of technology for idea
generation (open platforms, prize administration) is useful, but only if
incentives for participation are built into the platform architecture (as at
HHSinnovates). To leverage their efforts, government agencies could take
a page from Apple’s iphone app playbook, build a platform, and attract
others to build alongside and on top of what they are doing.
Idea generation is enabled through a lower barrier to entry, as with
Amazon.com, where suggestions can come from anywhere within and
outside the organization. Innovative use of procurement instruments, such
as VAi2’s switch to Broad Agency Announcements, can lead to
improvements in the quality and diversity of ideas.
In certain cases, the process of idea selection can be improved
when decisions are made by limited-term staff who bring ideas from the
outside and are motivated to demonstrate value during their tenure, as with
DARPA and ARPA-E. Given the uncertainty associated with innovation,
it is also valuable for final decision-making to lie with a small number of
in-house leaders with a strong incentive to see challenges addressed, as at
P&G and the ARPA agencies. While fast and decisive decision-making is
important, having transparency in the process is critical too, as at
Department of Education’s i3 program.
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41
For development, testing and prototyping, it may be useful to
consider, as at Nordstrom and CMMl, the concept of making many small
bets, and learning to fail fast and ‘‘pull the plug” if needed. This can be
accomplished through hypothesis-driven experimentation with short
cycles. At each of the stages, but especially toward the later ones, it also
helps to set aggressive milestones, and de-fund projects that do not meet
them, as is currently occurring at ARPA-E.
With respect to implementation, it is important to note that scale-
up and deployment are as much a function of policy and economy as
technology. So it is critical to build early linkages within the user-base and
create “policy hooks” to integrate with the broader/existing organization/
system for quicker scale-up.
Table 3, below and continued on the next page, summarizes these
practices.
Table 3. Summary of Insights by Stage of Innovation Pipeline.
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Appendix A
Sources of Funding Data
The sources for funding provided in Table 1 are as follows:
Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy (ARPA-E)
http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd/fv2Q 1 2/doe 1 2c.pdf
Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Innovation Fund
Discussion with John Kools, CDC
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Center for Medicare
and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI)
http://innovations.ciTis.gov/initiatives/innovation-challenoe/
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)
http://www. darpa.mil/WorkArea/Download Asset. aspx?id^2400
(page 13 “FY201 1 annualized CR total”)
Department of Education Investing in Innovation (Ed-i3) Fund
http://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/twentv-three-investing-innovation-
appl icants-named-20 1 1 -grantees-pending-pri vate
NASA Innovation Fund
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/428439main Space technologv.pdf
Office of Naval Research (ONR) Rapid Innovation Fund
http://www.onr.navv.mi1/~/media/Files/Funding-Announcements/BAA/201 1/11-
032.ashx
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Corporation for National and Community Service Social Innovation Fund
http://www.nationalservice.iJov/about/proizrams/innovation 201 1 i>rants.asp
Department of Veteran Affairs Innovation Initiative (VAi2)
Department of Veteran Affairs Memo, Discussion with Jonah Czerwinski
Department of Labor Workforce Innovation Fund
http://www.dol.gOv/dol/budget/2012/PDF/FY2012BIB.pdf
Appendix B
Methodology and List of Diseussants
We followed a four-part approach to examine innovation pipeline
management (IPM)-related practices in the public and private sectors:
• We reviewed the literature on IPM to identify the different
conceptualizations and phases of the pipeline.
• Based on the literature, we developed a model of the innovation
pipeline, which served as the basis for further data collection.
• We conducted structured discussions with key persons at
companies with the reputation of being innovative or having
innovative processes, to learn how they manage their innovation
pipeline activities. See Table B-1 for a list of these companies and
other organizations where persons were interviewed.
• Building on publicly available information and discussions with
program staff, we sought to understand IPM-related activities
within the government organizations listed in Table B-1.
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Table B-1. Discussions
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Dr. Chris Weber, former colleague
at the Science and Technology Policy Institute, who was part of the study
team and led discussions related to energy activities.
Notes
' Lai, Bhavya, Nayanee Gupta, and Christopher L. Weber. 2012, released 2014.
Innovation Pipeline Management: Lessons Learned from the Federal Government and the
Private Sector. IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute. IDA Document NS D-
5367.
“ DARPA website; http://www.darpa.mil/our work/.
Washington Academy of Sciences
45
3 Government agencies can make innovative use of procurement instruments to bring in
more of a diversity of ideas than is possible with the status quo. For example, the
Department of Veterans Affairs’ VA Innovation Initiative (VAi2) switched from the use
of Requests for Proposals (RFP) to Broad Agency Announcements (BAA) to solicit
proposals for addressing specific challenges. This switch allowed the agency to define its
output requirements, rather than the methods to get there, thereby increasing the quality
of proposals received.
Risk and uncertainty are distinct concepts. Typically, risk involves both a perceived
uncertainty by the individual concerned, and exposure to that uncertainty. From this
vantage-point, risk is defined as “exposure to a proposition of which one is uncertain”
(Holton 2004).
^ America Creating Opportunities to Meaningfully Promote Excellence in Technology,
Education, and Science (COMPETES) Act of 2007.
^ A minimum viable product or process (MVP) is that version of a new product that
allows a team to collect the maximum amount of validated learning about customers with
the least effort.
^ http://www.energvinnovationsummit.com/about/.
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Bios
Bhavya Lai is a research staff member at the IDA Science and
Technology Policy Institute (STPI) where her research focuses on
manufacturing and space technology and policy. Dr. Lai holds B.S. and
M.S. degrees in nuclear engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology (MIT), an M.S. from MIT’s Teclmology and Policy Program,
and a Ph.D. from the Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and Public
Administration (concentration in science and technology policy) at George
Washington University.
Prior to working at STPI, Nayanee Gupta worked in R&D at Intel
Corporation. She holds two U.S. patents for developing predictive
simulation models for core microprocessor technology development. Ms.
Gupta also holds an M.S. in chemistry from the Indian Institute of
Technology and M.S. degrees in chemistry and materials engineering from
North Carolina State University and the University of Maryland at College
Park. She further holds an M.A. in international policy in science and
technology from the George Washington University.
Fall 2014
Washington Academy of Sciences
Joseph Henry’s House and
Plan for the Princeton Campus
49
Ezra Y. S. Tjung, Daniel Kaufmann, Michael G. Littman
Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
Abstract
Joseph Henry is often credited with the design of the Joseph Henry
House, a registered National Historic Landmark on the Princeton
University Campus. Joseph Henry was Professor of Natural Philosophy
and Mathematics at Princeton College at the beginning of the 19'’’
century. He also taught Architecture and Geology, and had worked
earlier in the State of New York as a surveyor. In 1846, Prof Henry
moved to Washington, D.C. to assume leadership of the Smithsonian as
its first Secretary. We set out to verify that Joseph Henry was
responsible for the design of the House that bears his name, and found
to our surprise that it is unlikely he designed it. Our conclusion is based
on reviewing: financial documents and other College records;
published and unpublished papers and letters of Joseph Henry; and, the
diary of a College Building Committee member. We have established
that Ezekial Howell, a local mason, was the principal builder of the
house. We also determined that Charles Steadman, a local builder and
carpenter, was responsible for certain drawings of the house. While it is
possible that Steadman, as draftsman, was following Henry’s
specifications, we find that this is unlikely given that the 1838 house is
so similar to others previously built by Steadman in the Princeton area.
Prof Henry did make his own drawing for a house and submitted it to
the Building Committee, but his design is not like the design of the
house that was built. That withstanding, Joseph Henry did select the
location of the house as well as that of several other early buildings as
part of his influential Campus Plan. A previously unknown freehand
draft of the Campus Plan was discovered at the Smithsonian indicating
the location of several unrealized buildings.
Introduction
Built in 1838 and named a National Historic Landmark in 1965, the
Joseph Henry House is one of the earlier structures at the College of New
Jersey (known also as Princeton College, now Princeton University) [1-7].
The house has been relocated three times — perhaps a record — but its
original location was close to the College’s two original buildings, Nassau
Hall and the President’s House. Both of these structures still exist.
Princeton College and its grounds are shown in the 1764 engraving by
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50
Henry Dawkins in Figure 1 [8]. Today we would deseribe this engraving
as showing the entire College eampus at that time. ‘Campus’ is the Latin
word for ‘field,’ and its first use to describe college grounds in the English
language was in reference to the patch of land in front of Nassau Hall [9].
Credit: Princeton University Library
Figure 1. College of New Jersey: Nassau Hall and the President’s House, 1764.
Joseph Henry proposed a plan for the development of Princeton
College in 1836. The plan was formally accepted by action of the Board of
Trustees [10]. Henry’s plan included a new location for his home, as well
as the placement of several proposed buildings. His plan called for a
building arrangement that was symmetrical about Nassau Hall [11].
Joseph Henry was hired in 1832 by Princeton Vice President Jolm
Maclean, Jr. to teach Natural Philosophy and Mathematics. He also taught
courses in Geology and Architecture. He served as a Princeton faculty
member for fourteen years during a time when the entire faculty
(including professors and tutors) numbered about fifteen [3]. In 1846, he
moved from Princeton to Washington, D.C. to lead the Smithsonian
Institution as its first Secretary.
The Joseph Henry House on campus is a brick dwelling in the
Federal style with a Greek Revival portico. Henry and his family members
were its first occupants when the construction was completed in mid-
September 1838. It has been suggested by many sources that Prof Heniy
Washington Academy of Sciences
51
designed the house himself. A study of the house and doeuments relating
to its origins reveals interesting facts, but no evidence that Joseph Henry
actually designed it. Henry did present a drawing to the Trustees in
Januaiy 1837 for a house [12, 13], but this drawing bears little
resemblance to the house that was built [1, 14]. The brick house as built,
however, is very similar to many wooden houses in the Princeton area
constructed by carpenter and builder Charles Steadman [1], suggesting
that perhaps Steadman may have been involved in the design.
Henry’s Early Days in Princeton
Prof. Henry is best known for his many fundamental contributions
in the then-new field of electromagnetism and especially for his discovery
of self-inductance [15]. Electromagnetic induction, usually credited to
Michael Faraday, is the creation of a voltage between the ends of a loop of
wire when exposed to a changing magnetic field. The temi of art for this
phenomenon in the 19^*^ century was magneto-electricity, that is, electricity
from magnetism. Electromagnetic induction often involves two coils in
proximity — one to produce a changing magnetic field and another to
convert the changing magnetic field into a voltage. This property of
electricity and magnetism is the basis of the electromagnetic transfomier.
Joseph Henry discovered that a voltage is produced in the same
coil used to produce the magnetic field. This phenomenon is known as
self-inductance and it is the basis of an effect commonly observed and
known as ‘back voltage’ or ‘back EMF’ (electromotive force). In the
standard system of units used internationally (Ee Systeme International
d’Unites, or SI), the unit of electrical inductance is the hemy, named after
Joseph Henry himself [16].
Henry is also known for constructing the strongest electromagnets
of his era [17], and for discovering how to apply electromagnetism for the
transmission of information and power. He demonstrated a sounding-type
telegraph before Samuel Morse [18], and he constructed the first practical
electromagnetic engine, which was a precursor to the modern electric
motor and the modern electromagnetic relay [19].
Henry moved to Princeton in 1832 from the Albany Academy
where he taught Mathematics and Natural Philosophy for eight years [20].
Upon arriving in Princeton, Joseph Henry was provided the use of a house
that stood immediately to the west of Nassau Hall. At that time, there were
thi'ee professors’ houses: one occupied by professor of Chemistry and
College Vice President John Maclean Jr.; another by professor of
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52
Mathematics Albert Dod; and the third by Prof. Henry and his family.
Henry’s assigned home had been used previously by Prof Henry Vethake,
the faculty member whom he was replacing [6, 7].
Figure 2 is a map drawn by Prof Henry for his brother, James
Henry, in an 1833 letter [21]. Henry’s house, labeled “our house” in
Figure 2, can also be seen in Figure 3, a circa 1825 drawing of the front
campus by an unknown artist [22]. In Figure 3, Henry’s original house is
located immediately to the right of Nassau Hall and it faces the street
(Nassau Street). Figure 4 shows a cropped image of this house that
exhibits five bays in a Federal style. The house to the left of Nassau Hall
in Figure 3 (labeled “Steward House” in Figure 2) is visually similar to
Henry’s house.
Credit: Smithsonian Institution Archives
Figure 2. Henry’s map of the “Front Campus with Poplar and Elm Trees,” 1833.
On September 29, 1835, the Board of Trustees decided to expand Henry’s
house [23]:
“Resolved that an addition be made to the house of Professor
Henry, by erecting a wing on the southwest end of the house,
which shall contain four comfortable rooms of such materials, and
Washington Academy of Sciences
53
on such plan as the building committee may judge proper, and that
the funds necessary for completing this addition be procured in the
same manner, as prescribed in the second resolution [that is, to get
a loan from a bank].”
Credit: Princeton University Library
Figure 3. Drawing of “Princeton’s Front Campus as seen from Street,” circa 1825.
Henry’s Campus Plan
Besides being the Professor of Natural Philosophy and
Mathematics, Henry was also a member of the Whig Society. The Whig
Society was one of two debating clubs at the College — the other being
the Cliosophic Society. Both debating societies are still active at Princeton
University today. In a circular printed in 1836 [11], an appeal for funds
was made to build a new hall for the Whig Society. Henry drew a plan for
the campus (Figure 5) which was included in this document. In a letter to
Whig Society members, the following was written:
“The erection of the new Halls is intimately connected with the
improvement of the College grounds, as these edifices can be so
placed in reference to the buildings now erected as to form with the
latter a convenient and beautiful architectural arrangement. The
plan of the disposition of the whole will readily be understood by a
reference to the annexed Map.”
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54
Credit: Princeton University Library
Figure 4. Cropped view of the ‘professor’s house’ occupied by Joseph Henry until 1837.
At the time of this letter, buildings A (Nassau Hall), B-left, C-left,
C-right, F, and I were already present. Building B-right (today known as
West College) was under construction. Buildings G-left, G-right, H-left,
and H-right did not yet exist. Two existing structures, D-left (“steward’s
house”) and D-right (“our house”), were proposed for relocation to G-left
and G-right. Prior to the construction of the Halls, the debating societies
met in the C-right building (Library).
We discovered an earlier freehand draft of the printed Campus
Plan in the Smithsonian Institution Archives along with other Joseph
Henry documents [24]. This freehand version of the Figure 5 Campus Plan
is shown in Figure 6. Henry wished to continue the strict symmetry of the
campus by pairing new buildings on each side of Nassau Hall at a
respectful distance. At the rear of the campus. Whig Hall is paired with
Clio Hall. East-West symmetry was already present, but Henry added to
the concept of a back campus delineated by the proposed Halls. Henry
proposed also that his house be set in a North-South alignment with the
front of the Library (today known as Stanhope Hall) and West College.
The Board of Trustees approved Henry’s Campus Plan and then
followed with a September 29, 1836 resolution to build a new stone house
for his use [10]:
Washington Academy of Sciences
55
1836 Joseph Henr>’’s Plan of the Campus,
1836, Princeton University Archives
A Old Nassau
B. B. New Colleges
C. C. Library. Philosophical Hall
D. D. Present sites ot Professor's <Si Steward’s
Houses. These to he removed to G &. G
E Site reserved for Chapel
G. G. Intended sites for Professor’s &. Stewards
Houses
1 President’s House
F Vice President’s House
H. H. Sites of new Society Halls
Credit; Princeton University Library
Figure 5. Henry’s Campus Plan of 1836.
“Resolved, that this Board adopt the plan, submitted by Professor
Henry for the location of buildings on the College ground ...
Resolved, that a house for Professor Henry be forthwith erected,
that it be of stone, on the site shown by the plan of the grounds
adopted by the board; and that a sum not exceeding four thousand
dollars (with materials now in the house occupied by Professor
Henry) be appropriated for that object.
Resolved, that Dr Carnahan, Mr Cooley and Mr Green be a
committee to carry the immediate proceeding resolution into
effect.”
The use of stone made sense given that the two closest buildings to the
proposed house were Nassau Hall and the Library, and both of these
buildings were constructed with stone from the local quarry.
Dr. James Carnahan, identified in the above resolution, was
President of the College. Rev. Eli Field Cooley of Trenton (Princeton
Class of 1 806) and Mr. James Sprout Green of Princeton (lawyer and son
of Carnahan’s predecessor. Dr. Ashbel Green) were Trustees of the
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56
College [3]. Pres. Carnahan served as the chairman of the Building
Committee; we know this by comparing entries in the Treasurer’s general
accounts for September 1838 and in the “Statement of Moneys Paid for
Professor’s House” in the Treasurer’s records of “Repairs for Joseph
Henry House” [25]. This same group had worked previously as a Building
Committee to oversee construction of several other structures on the
College grounds including: the house that Prof Dod occupied (built in
1827 and also known as a ‘professor’s house,’ first occupied by Prof
Patton); East College (1832-33); and West College (1835-36) [26].
Credit: Smithsonian Institution Archives
Figure 6. Henry’s freehand drawing of the plan for the College grounds.
The Whig Society was successful in raising the needed funds, and
local builder Charles Steadman agreed to construct the new Whig Hall for
$7000. Architect John Haviland of Philadelphia provided a Greek Revival
design for the Whig structure. The cornerstone of Whig Hall was laid in
the summer of 1837 and completed by the autumn of 1838 [26, 27].
Henry's Campus Plan was not followed precisely, as reflected in an
annotation in his personal copy of the 1836 Whig circular [28]. The
handwritten note in Figure 7 was added to the printed circular some time
after Henry returned from an April-September 1837 trip to Europe. It
reads:
Washington Academy of Sciences
57
“The following letter [the text in the lithographed eircularj was
written by myself and the appeal [written] by Dr Brackenridge.
The plan of the improvement of the grounds is also due to me. The
buildings were erected during my visit to Europe and I regret that
the committee did not strictly adhere to the plan. The buildings
should have been put as in the plan on the back line of the college
grounds and then space would have been left for building lots
between the colleges and the halls.”
U£^
D
•4-
■ Jjb. }U^
tfaUm. Urn4^ It C»-C$
' - ^0/ - >?* **y
i^y/. 4^
/✓
7^
Credit: Smithsonian Institution Archives
Figure 7. Henry’s hand-written note added to the 1836 Whig Circular.
The ‘building lots’ to which Henry referred are understood by
looking at Figure 6, which shows lightly-drawn rectangles for two
additional buildings between the Society Halls and the New Colleges. One
can also see that Henry envisioned two other buildings, symmetrical about
Nassau Hall, and between the proposed houses and the new Colleges. The
circle that appears at the top of the drawing in Figure 6 is identified on the
reverse side as “site reserved for chapel,” as shown in Figure 5. The
chapel was eventually located elsewhere, and that circled site became a
privy.
Joseph Henry’s Design for the Professor’s House
With the Board of Trustees granting permission for the
construction of a new professor’s house, Henry submitted a design to the
Building Committee [12]. Though Henry was not a practicing architect, he
understood architectural principles and even lectured on architecture to
Princeton students [29]. Figure 8 shows his sketch for the house, dated
Fall 2014
58
January 1837 (Henry’s annotation on the reverse side of the sketch
addressed to Pres. James Carnahan was: “Plan of a house submitted to the
building committee of college. This was the plan submitted by myself’).
On April 1 1 of the same year, the Board of Trustees directed the Building
Committee to proceed with construction of the house [13]. (Trustee
meetings were held in April and September, and Princeton’s
commencement for this period was held in September.) The following is
excerpted from the April 1837 Trustees minutes:
“The subject of Professor Henry’s house was taken up; and it was
on motion. Resolved, that the building cormnittee proceed as soon
as they shall think it expedient, to erect a dwelling house,
agreeably to the plan submitted to said Committee, by Professor
Henry.”
Credit: Smithsonian Institution Archives
Figure 8. Henry’s proposed design of a Professor’s House, submitted to the Building
Committee, January 1837.
Henry’s January 1837 design looks nothing like the structure that
was built. The house that was constructed in 1838 is shown in Figure 9,
the earliest known photograph of the Joseph Henry House. Today, the
brick is painted light yellow. The stone structure to the right of the house
is the Library (now known as Stanhope Hall). Both the Library and its
Washington Academy of Sciences
59
twin. Philosophical Hall, were designed by Benjamin Lalrobe, the
designer of the U.S. Capitol.
Credit; Smithsonian Institution Archives. Image #2012-2992.
Figure 9. The Professor’s House that was built, in earliest known photograph, 1863.
It is interesting that Henry’s new house is similar in style to the
Vice President’s House (building F in Figure 5 from 1836, and the
leftmost building of Figure 3 from 1825) [30]. The early-on Vice
President’s House was constructed in 1799 in a classic Federal style,
modified in 1832-34 (3 bays increased to 5, and a Greek Revival portico
added), and later demolished in 1873 [1]. A photograph of Vice President
Maclean’s house in 1870 is shown in Figure 10. This is how Prof
Maclean’s house appeared in the first few years after Henry joined the
faculty.
Prof Dod’s house was to the east of East College and it, too, was
in a Federal style with a Greek Revival portico. Figure 1 1 shows this
house in a lithograph on the left [31] and in a photograph on the right [32].
Two houses are shown in the lithograph; the house on the left is Heniy’s
Fall 2014
60
House, which was relocated in 1870 to make way for Reunion Hall, and
the house to its right is that of Prof Dod who occupied it in Henry’s time.
Prof. Dod’s house was removed in 1881 to make way for Marquand
Chapel.
Credit: Princeton University Library
Figure 10. The Vice President’s House, constructed in 1799 (portico and addition
constructed 1832), and demolished in 1873.
Knowing that Henry’s proposed house design is so different from
the structure that was built brings into question the phrase “agreeably to
the plan submitted” in the April 1837 Trustee’s resolution [13]. Did “plan”
refer to Henry’s house design or his site plan? The similarity in style of
Henry’s house to the existing nearby Vice President’s house also suggests
that perhaps the Building Committee made the decision to have the new
professor’s house look like the other professor’s houses on the campus.
We know that this Building Committee was in the habit of making design
decisions with regard to structures they oversaw, including Prof. Patton’s
house which was built in 1827 by carpenter Charles Steadman. From
many bills in the College Treasurer’s files, we know also that this
Building Committee supervised the construction of East College in 1832-
33 and repairs to the President’s House in 1836 [33]. These two structures
Washington Academy of Sciences
61
drew heavily upon the skilled labor of mason Ezekial Howell and his
employees.
Credits, lithograph & photograph: Princeton University Library
Figure 11. Prof. Dod’s House shown in lithograph and photograph, circa 1875.
Construction of the Henry House
Although the Trustees’ September 1837 minutes note that
construction of the professor’s house was to commence “without any
delay,” construction did not begin until early 1838. We know from a letter
sent to Joseph Henry that his old house was dismantled in November 1837
[34] . We know also that Henry and his family occupied a rented house at
the nearby Princeton Theological Seminary, fully covered by the College
[35] . The Trustee’s minutes from September 26, 1837 state:
“Resolved, that a sum not exceeding tliree hundred dollars, be
appropriated for the rent of a house for Professor Henry, for the
present year.”
We know also from the Building Committee’s minutes that there
was difficulty in securing funding. College finances were not the best and,
at this time, it was common for individual Trustees to loan money to the
struggling College. A member of the Trustees expressed the desire to get
started quickly and he offered to loan funds to begin construction. That
Trustee was not named in these documents but, in the April 1838 records
of the Treasurer, there is a credit to Trustee Robert Lenox for $1500 in
support of Prof Henry’s house. Lenox was chairman of the finance
Committee and recommended that Henry’s original house be expanded in
1835. In the April 1838 Trustee minutes, the Building Committee
announced its decision to substitute “brick for stone” [36]. No explanation
Fall 2014
62
was found for this switch. Financial records concerning construction of the
house show that Daniel Dougherty dug the cellar. He was paid $35.00 for
this on April 12, 1838, so presumably his work was completed by that date
[25]. Dougherty was a regular contractor to the College whenever digging
was needed.
We know also from the personal diary of Rev. Cooley, who served
as the agent overseeing most expenses related to the House, that Ezekial
Howell began work on the house on or about April 8, 1838 [37]. Howell
received substantial payments at regular intervals over the next several
months. It is very clear from the Treasurer’s records of bills and payments
[38] and also from Cooley’s diary entries that Ezekial Howell was the
principal builder of the Henry House.
We know that Henry’s house was completed by mid-September
1838. Joseph Henry himself told his brother James in a letter he finished
on September 13, 1838 [39]:
“We are just about to move and hope to get into the new house in
the course of the present week . . . We commenced to move to day
and expect to get through by tomorrow night.”
There were also several mid-September bills for leveling the
ground, erecting fences, and the like — expenses which are typically
expected at the end of a home building project. Some of these final bills
and a few earlier ones involved Steadman whose personal expertise was
carpentry. During the time that the Henry House was being constructed by
Howell, Steadman was building Whig Hall on the back campus, only a
few hundred feet away. A cumulative statement listing the money paid for
the Henry House shows that the last payment prior to the Trustees meeting
was entered on September 27, 1838 when construction was mostly
finished. At that point, the total expenditures for the house tallied
$5754.79, or roughly 50% over the original $4000.00 budgeted.
At the following Trustees meeting in April 1839, for reconciliation
of the Treasurer’s records, there is yet another bill for “contingent
expenses associated with the professor’s house” which amounted to
$328.85. These additional expenses, which were not included in the
September 1838 reconciliation, included bills from Steadman for labor
costs in constructing a wooden stable associated with the house and a
warrant (payment) dated September 18, 1838 for “drawings of the
professor’s house” (Figure 12). Judging from many other bills and
warrants associated with Charles Steadman for many other Princeton
Washington Academy of Sciences
63
College projects, he would submit his bills at the end of a construction
project and then receive payment. Sometimes his bills were not submitted
for many months after a project was finished. For example, Steadman was
regularly hired to construct the College commencement stage in
September, and his bills for such work would not be submitted or paid
until the following March or April. Steadman’s September 18, 1838
warrant shows that he was responsible for the drawings of Henry’s house,
but perhaps not its design.
Credit: Princeton University Library
Figure 12. Charles Steadman’s bill for “drawings of Professor’s house.”
The Case for Steadman as Designer
From bills and the Treasurer’s record of general accounts [38], we
know the following about the Henry House:
• Daniel Dougherty was the digger,
• Ezekial Howell was the primary builder,
• Charles Steadman was the draftsman, and
• Rev. Eli Cooley was the financial agent.
Today, we would describe Rev. Cooley as the general contractor. As noted
above, we know also that this same Building Committee supervised the
construction of East College six years earlier, and the design for East
College reputedly came from the Committee.
With regard to the house that Prof Dod occupied, we know that
Charles Steadman was its builder and was also responsible for its design.
That house, constructed in 1827, was located east of East College. The
related ‘article of agreement’ with Steadman compares that house to
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64
another one he previously designed and built for a Princeton resident (Mrs.
Field). In a map of the College campus that appeared in Scribner’s
Monthly [40], March 1876, the house Steadman built in 1827 is labeled as
“Prof. Packard’s” (Figure 13).
The house labeled “Prof. Karge’s” in Figure 13 is the relocated
Henry house which, as noted earlier, was moved in 1870 to make room for
Reunion Hall. There is an interesting crossed-out entry in the ‘rough
minutes of the Trustees’ that never made it into the final minutes of the
Trustees that “the house for Professor Henry be similar in size and
accommodation to that of Prof. Dod.” Given that Prof Dod’s house was
designed by Steadman, it would make sense that Steadman would be
asked to design Henry’s house. Unfortunately, no similar ‘article of
agreement’ has been found for Henry’s house, which would likely clarify
the matter.
irjiSSA.x/ STjiEEo:,
Credit: Princeton University Library
Figure 13. Prof. Packard’s house built by Steadman in 1827; Prof Karge’s house is the
Henry House, relocated in 1870 (1876 engraving).
Washington Academy of Sciences
65
[Figure 13 enlargement j
The best case for Steadman as designer,
though, is circumstantial — that is, the Joseph
Henry House looks very much like other known
Steadman houses in the local area, including ones
that did not involve the Building Committee.
Constance Greiff, in her book, Princeton
Architecture, also notes the similarity in style of
the Henry House to those constructed by
Steadman [1]. Figure 14, for example, shows a
wooden 5 -bay Steadman house (built for
Steadman’s two daughters) that was next door to
the house of Building Committee member James
S. Green. This house is especially close in
appearance to the Henry House. Green, himself, lived in a 3 -bay house
that Steadman also built.
Credit: Michael G. Littman
Figure 14, Steadman-built House at 40-42 Mercer Street; Building Committee member
James S. Green lived next door.
Figure 15 shows a recent photograph of the Joseph Henry House at
its present location. The similarity of this image to the one in Figure 14 is
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66
Striking, particularly given that the left and right porches were added later.
We think that if Henry played any role in the design of the house that now
bears his name, it was to instruet Steadman to make the house look like
others Steadman had been building in the area.
Credit: Princeton University Library
Figure 15. The Joseph Henry House at its current location; the left and right porches
were added later.
Henry’s Houses and Electromagnetism
Prof. Joseph Henry’s residences entered into his experiments on
electromagnetism. The house he occupied from 1832 until 1837 was used
in 1836 for a demonstration of a eritieal improvement in telegraphy. Henry
described his telegraph experiments in a letter to Prof. Dod in 1876 [41]:
‘T think that the first actual line of telegraph using the Earth as a
conductor was made in the beginning of 1836. A wire was
extended across the front campus of the eollege grounds from the
upper story of the library building to the philosophical hall on the
opposite side, the ends terminating in two wells. Through this wire,
signals were sent, from time to time, from my house to my
laboratory. The eleetro-magnetic telegraph was first invented by
me, in Albany, in 1830. Prof Morse, according to his statements,
conceived of the idea of an electro-magnetic telegraph in his
voyage across the ocean in 1832, but did not until several years
Washington Academy of Sciences
67
afterward — 1837 — attempt to carry his ideas into practice; and
when he did so, he found himself so little acquainted with the
subject of electricity that he could not make his simple machine
operate through the distance of a few yards. In this dilemma he
called in the aid of Dr. Leonard D. Gale, who was well acquainted
with what I had done in Albany and Princeton, having visited me
in the latter place.”
Henry’s new house of 1838 was similarly used in his experiments.
At the new Henry House, Henry detected lightning flashes some 8 miles
distant by magnetizing steel needles inserted into a spiral of what was, in
essence, a receiving antenna. In the same letter to Dod, Henry recalled:
“The next series of experiments ... was on the induction from
thunder clouds. For this purpose the tin covering of the house in
which I resided was used as an inductive plate. A wire was
soldered to the edge of the roof near the gutter, was passed into my
study and out again through holes in the window-sash, and
terminated in connection with a plate of metal in a deep well
immediately in front of the house. By breaking the continuity of
that part of the wire which was in the study, and introducing into
the opening a magnetizing spiral, needles placed in this could be
magnetized by a flash of lightning so distant that the thunder could
scarcely be heard. The electrical disturbance produced in this case
was also found to be of an oscillatory character, a discharge first
passing through the wire from the roof to the well, then another in
the opposite direction, and so on until equilibrium was restored.”
It is noteworthy that Henry’s detection of radio frequency induction,
above, occurred more than 40 years before the well-known transmission
and detection of radio waves of Heinrich Hertz.
Conclusion
Based on the above discussion, a few points can now be made
assuredly. First, Joseph Henry was responsible for the influential
Princeton Campus Plan that placed several buildings along a long
rectangle centered on Nassau Hall, including his own home. Henry’s plan
allowed for an unobstructed view of Whig and Clio Halls as seen from
Nassau Street. The fact that the central Princeton campus is not cluttered
with buildings is rightly credited to Joseph Henry. Second, Charles
Steadman drafted the plans for Henry’s house, and had earlier designed
and built another professor’s house in a similar style. Given that the
Fall 2014
68
Joseph Henry House so closely resembles other houses that Steadman
built in Princeton — including some constructed before Henry arrived in
Princeton — suggests strongly that Steadman was involved in its design;
however, this is not conclusive proof. Lastly, the Henry House is
remarkable because of its distinguished occupant and connection to the
early history of electromagnetism, but not necessarily because of its
design or designer.
Acknowledgements
We thank Daniel Linke of the Mudd Manuscript Library at
Princeton University for his expert assistance with this study. We thank
Architect Jeffrey Clarke for useful discussions; Mr. Clarke was
responsible for the 1999 restoration of the Joseph Henry House. Ms. Janet
Temos, a former research assistant to Prof R. J. Clark, provided guidance
which helped us find many original documents. Ms. Constance Greiff is
thanked for reviewing an early draft of our manuscript. Finally, we are
appreciative of the Smithsonian Archives for providing access to original
Joseph Henry documents on deposit in the Smithsonian.
Bibliography
1. Greiff, C. M., Gibbon, M. W., and Menzies, E. G. C. 1975. Princeton Architecture.
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5. Leitch, A. 1978. Princeton Companion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
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Washington Academy of Sciences
69
8. “A North-West Prospect ot'Nassau Hall, with a Front View of the President’s Flouse
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Library.
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Documents Relating to Construction; 1836-1892; American Whig Society Records,
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12. Henry, J. 1837. An Image of the Design of the Joseph Henry House [Figure 8].
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13. Trustee Minutes - April 12, 1937. Board of Trustees Minutes. Vol. 3, p. 333.
Princeton University Library, Department of Rare Books and Special Collections,
Seeley G. Mudd Manuscript Library, Princeton University Archives - AC 120.
14. “Joseph Henry’s Home in Princeton, NJ” [Figure 9]. 1863. Smithsonian Institution
Archives. Image # 2012-2992.
15. W. F. Magie, “Joseph Henry,” Rev. Mod. Phys. Vol. 3, p. 465 (1931).
16. Report of the Action of the International Electrical Congress held in Chicago,
August, 1893, in the Matter of Units of Electrical Measure, pp. 1-4, Box 27, Joseph
Henry Collection, Record Unit 7001, Smithsonian Institution Archives.
17. “Prof. Henry’s Big Magnet,” Scientific American, Dec. 1 1, P- 370 (1880).
18. “Deposition of Joseph Henry, in the Case of Morse vs. O’Reilly,” Sept. 1849,
reprinted in Annual Report of the Board of Regents of the Smithsonian
Institution.. .for the Year 1857 (Washington; William A. Harris, Printer; 1858), p.
1 10.
19. M. Littman and L. Stern, “A New Understanding of the First Electromagnetic
Machine: Joseph Henry’s Vibrating Motor,” Am. J. Phys., Vol. 79, p. 172 (201 1).
20. A. E. Moyer. 1997. Joseph Hemy. Smithsonian Institution Press, Washington, D.C.
21. Letter dated February 9, 1833 to James Henry, Papers of Joseph Henry, Vol. 2, Nov.
1832 - Dec. 1835, p. 45-49, Nathan Reingold, ed., Smithsonian Institution Press
(1975).
Fall 2014
70
22. Primitive Painting or Drawing, Reproduction; circa 1825; Nassau Hall Iconography
(AC 177), Box 1, Folder 7; Princeton University Archives, Department of Rare
Books and Special Collections, Princeton University Library.
23. Trustee Minutes - September 29, 1935. Board of Trustees Minutes. Vol. 3, p. 303.
Princeton University Library, Department of Rare Books and Special Collections,
Seeley G. Mudd Manuscript Library, Princeton University Archives - AC 120.
24. Henry, J. Early Sketch of the Campus Plan. Smithsonian Institution Archives,
Record Unit 7001, Box 30, Folder 10.
25. 1838; Office of the Treasurer Records (AC128), Box 1, Folder 40; Princeton
University Archives, Department of Rare Books and Special Collections, Princeton
University Library.
26. Campus Grounds and Building; 1750-1995; Robert Judson Clark Papers, Princeton
University Archives, Department of Rare Books and Special Collections, Princeton
University Library.
27. Steadman, C. 1837. “Articles of Agreement with American Whig Society to Build a
Building for Them for $7000.” Willard H. Bradford Princeton Collection,
Manuscripts Division, Department of Rare Books and Special Collections, Princeton
University Library - C0057, Box 1, Folder 27.
28. Smithsonian Institution Archives, Record Unit 7001, Heniy, Joseph, 1797-1878,
Joseph Henry Collection. Box 7 of 65, Folder 19 July-December 1 836 - Joseph
Henry’s personal annotated copy of printed circular.
29. [a] Hunter, C. H. 1 836. A note about “Lectures on Architecture to the Junior Class of
1 836 at Nassau Hall by Prof Joseph Henry.” Lecture Notes Collection, Princeton
University Library, Department of Rare Books and Special Collections, Seeley G.
Mudd Manuscript Library, Princeton University Archives - AC052, Box 22, Folder
6.
[b] Miller, J. 1836. A note about “Lectures on Civil Architecture by Prof Henry of
Nassau Hall.” Lecture Notes Collection, Princeton University Library, Department
of Rare Books and Special Collections, Seeley G. Mudd Manuscript Library,
Princeton University Archives - AC052, Box 22, Folder 8.
30. Vice-President’s House; 1800-1871; Historical Photograph Collection, Grounds and
Buildings Series (ACl 1 1), Box MP87; Princeton University Archives, Department
of Rare Books and Special Collections, Princeton University Library.
3 1 . Princeton College, Princeton, N.J., 1 875. Lithograph by Thomas Hunter, after a
design by W. M. Radcliff Published by Charles O. Hudnut and also called Hudnut’s
Aerial View. GC047 Princetoniana Collection, Princeton University Library.
32. Karge (Joseph) House; undated; Historical Photograph Collection, Grounds and
Buildings Series (ACl 1 1), Box SP4; Princeton University Archives, Department of
Rare Books and Special Collections, Princeton University Library.
Washington Academy of Sciences
71
33. Office of the Treasurer’s Records: 1835-1838. Office of the Treasurer Records,
Princeton University Library, Department of Rare Books and Special Collections,
Seeley G. Mudd Manuscript Library, Princeton University Archives - AC 128, Box 3,
Folder 4.
34. Letter dated Nov. 1, 1837 from John Torrey, Papers of Joseph Henry, Vol. 3, Jan.
1836- Dec. 1837, p. 516, Nathan Reingold, ed., Smithsonian Institution Press,
Washington, D.C. (1979).
35. Trustee Minutes - September 26, 1937. Board of Trustees Minutes. Vol. 3, p. 338.
Princeton University Library, Department of Rare Books and Special Collections,
Seeley G. Mudd Manuscript Library, Princeton University Archives - AC 120.
36. Trustee Minutes - April 10, 1938. Board of Trustees Minutes. Vol. 3, p. 343.
Princeton University Library, Department of Rare Books and Special Collections,
Seeley G. Mudd Manuscript Library, Princeton University Archives - AC 120.
37. Cooley, E. F. Diaries (1836-1839). Eli Field Cooley Papers, Manuscripts Division,
Department of Rare Books and Special Collections, Princeton University Library -
C0410, Box 7, Folder 5.
38. [a] Inspector’s Records 1837-1838. Inspector’s Records, Princeton University
Archives, Department of Rare Books and Special Collections, Princeton University
Library - AC03 1 Box 1, Folders 9-1 1 .
[b] Office of the President Records: Jonathan Dickinson to Harold W. Dodds
Subgroup, Papers 8: College Finances of 1830-1859. Office of the President
Records: Jonathan Dickinson to Harold W. Dodds Subgroup, Princeton University
Archives, Department of Rare Books and Special Collections, Princeton University
Library - ACl 17, Box 25, Folder 1.
[c] Office of the President Records: Jonathan Dickinson to Harold W. Dodds
Subgroup, Papers 36: Trustee Minutes: (a) Building Committee of 1836-1847. Office
of the President Records: Jonathan Dickinson to Harold W. Dodds Subgroup,
Princeton University Archives, Department of Rare Books and Special Collections,
Princeton University Library - ACl 17, Box 32, Folder 5.
[d] Office of the Treasurer’s Records: 1835-1838. Office of the Treasurer Records,
Princeton University Library, Department of Rare Books and Special Collections,
Seeley G. Mudd Manuscript Library, Princeton University Archives - AC128, Box 3,
Folder 4.
[e] Board of Trustees Records: Rough Minutes, Letters, Accounts - 1838 April.
Board of Trustees Records, Princeton University Archives, Department of Rare
Books and Special Collections, Princeton University Library - AC 120, Box 7, Folder
18.
39. Letter to James Henry, Sept. 11-13, 1838, Papers of Joseph Henry, Vol. 4, Jan. 1838
- Dec. 1840, p. 111-112, Nathan Reingold, ed., Smithsonian Institution Press,
Washington, D.C. (1981).
Fall 2014
72
40. Scribner’s Monthly, “Princeton College,” Vol. 13, p. 625, Scribner & Co., N.Y.
(1876).
41. Henry’s letter to Dod in, A Memorial to Joseph Henry, U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, D.C., p. 150-153 (1880).
Bios
Ezra Yoanes Setiasabda Tjung is a recent graduate of Hong
Kong University of Science and Technology, majoring in Civil and
Structural Engineering. In 2013, he was a visiting summer student at
Princeton University, working under the supervision of Prof. Littman. He
is now working at Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd as an engineer.
Daniel Kaufmann is currently a senior in the Department of Civil
and Environmental Engineering at Lafayette College. During the summer
of 2013, he worked as an assistant-in-research with Professor Littman at
Princeton University.
Michael Littman is Professor and Departmental Representative in
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at Princeton University. He joined
the Princeton University faculty in 1979 shortly after completing a PhD in
physics from MIT. He is a fellow of the Optical Society of America. For
the past five years. Prof Littman has been exploring the laboratory
devices used by Prof. Joseph Henry in his early 19^'^ century research and
teaching at Princeton College.
Prof Littman may be contacted at: mlittman@princeton.edu
Washington Academy of Sciences
73
In Memoriam
Joseph F. Coates
(1929-2014)
Joseph F. Coates, a Fellow of the Washington Aeademy of
Seiences, died at home Oetober 16 following a brief illness. He was a
world-renowned futurist, advising governments and private businesses
about the possibilities of the future.
Joe was born in Brooklyn, New York, in January, 1929. He
graduated from Brooklyn Polyteeh (now part of New York University)
and earned his master’s degree in chemistry from Pennsylvania State
University in 1951. While in graduate school, Joe met Vary Ellen Taylor,
a native of South Carolina, and they married shortly after.
A temporary stint at the Institute for Defense Analysis (IDA) in
Washington, D.C., became a long term position, and the Coates family,
which includes children Marcy, Peter, Matthew, Anna, and Vary
Elizabeth, settled there permanently. It was at IDA that Joe became aware
of a burgeoning new field of study, futurism, or the study of the future.
After IDA, Joe worked at the National Science Foundation and then at the
Office of Technology Assessment, before leaving to form a think tank that
produced articles,
books, and reports on
the future for
corporate clients and
domestic and foreign
governments. This
think tank, in various
incarnations, thrived
for over twenty- five
years. Much of Joe’s
work as a futurist can
be found online at
iosephcoates.com.
Credit: Emanuela Appetiti
Joe enjoyed a lively adjunct career as a teacher, professor,
workshop leader, and as a public speaker, often working in partnership
with Vary. He was a founding member of The World Future Society twice
Fall 2014
74
and received an honorary doctorate from Claremont College in 1985 and
was an active member of The Cosmos Club. At the time of an accident he
had in 2010, Joe had just finished delivering a lecture to a professional
society in Boston.
In addition to being a Fellow of the Washington Academy of
Sciences, the following are some of Joe’s numerous accomplishments:
• Fellow of the World Academy of Art and Science
• Chairman of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Center for
Impact Assessment Studies and Forecasting (CIASF) in Warsaw,
Poland
• President of the Kanawha Institute for the Study of the Future
• President of the International Association for Impact Assessment
• President of the Association for Science, Technology and
Innovation
• Member of the Board of Directors of the Issues Management
Association
• Member of the Advisory Board, Franklin Institute’s Future Center
• Member of the New York Academy of Sciences
• Member of Sigma Xi, the Scientific Research Society
• Cited in Who’s Who in America
• Member of the Human Resources Planning Society
• Member of the Planning Forum
• Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of
Science
• Member of the United Nations Environmental Program’s Advisory
Group on Technology Assessment
Joe was also the co-author of four books and author of 300 articles,
chapters, papers, and speeches, and was on the editorial boards of nine
publications. In addition, he held 19 patents from his early career as an
industrial chemist.
Joe and Vary spent nearly their entire married life in upper
Northwest Washington, D.C. but traveled widely; Joe had visited dozens
Washington Academy of Sciences
75
of foreign countries, many multiple times, often as a guest of the
government. Their children attended local schools and two, Marcy and
Matthew, still live in the Washington area. Peter lives in New York, Anna
in Los Angeles, and Vary Elizabeth in New Mexico. In addition to Vary
and their children, Joe is survived by ten grandchildren, two great-
grandsons, and many step-grandchildren, nieces and nephews. Joe’s
parents, aunt, and brother predeceased him by several decades.
Joe was known for his formidable intelligence, encyclopedic
knowledge of many fields of science, history, and the humanities, and for
his rapier wit. He will be especially remembered for his kindness and
generosity toward generations of students and employees whom he
mentored and promoted. In a time when many or most American women
worked solely as homemakers after marriage, Joe encouraged Vary to
pursue an advanced degree and professional career and celebrated joyfully
when her accomplishments rivaled his own. Joe will be deeply mourned
and missed by his wife, children, grandchildren, and extended family, and
by the larger international community of futurists, technology experts, and
intellectuals in diverse fields, many of whom he provided with a start in
the now-established discipline of futurism.
Vary requests that in lieu of flowers, donations be sent to Covenant
House, New York (http://nv.covenanthouse.org/). She welcomes emails,
phone calls, and letters from friends and colleagues. For contact
information, please email amia.scotti@gmail.com.
Editor’s Note: 1 thank Joe’s daughter, Anna Scotti, for contributing this
obituary, and would like to note that Joe’s wife Vary Coates was a long-
time editor of this publication, the Journal of the Washington Academy of
Sciences. We acknowledge Emanuela Appetiti for taking the above photo
of Joe at the Washington Academy of Sciences’ 2007 Spring Banquet.
Fall 2014
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Volume 100 Number 4 Winter 2014
Contents
Board of Discipline Editors ii
Editor’s Comments S. Rood iii
Letter to the Editor
Ayres’ Bubble Economy and its Scissors Strategy S. Vmpleby 1
Physiological and Psychological Aspects of Sending Humans to Mars:
Challenges and Recommendations A. Paris 3
Shamanism and Totemism in Early Israel R. D. Miller II 21
Washington Academy of Sciences Membership Directory 2014 59
Membership Application 73
Instructions to Authors 74
Affiliated Institutions 75
Affiliated Societies and Delegates 76
ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington DC
Winter 20 14
II
Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences
Editor Sally A. Rood, PhD sallv.rood2@gmail.com
Board of Discipline Editors
The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences has a 12-
member Board of Discipline Editors representing many scientific and
technical fields. The members of the Board of Discipline Editors are
affiliated with a variety of scientific institutions in the Washington area
and beyond — government agencies such as the National Institute of
Standards and Technology (NIST); universities such as George Mason
University (GMU); and professional associations such as the Institute of
Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
Anthropology
Astronomy
Biology/Biophysics
Botany
Chemistry
Environmental Natural
Sciences
Health
History of Medicine
Operations Research
Physics
Science Education
Systems Science
Emanuela Appetiti eappetiti@hotmail.com
Sethanne Howard sethanneh@.msn.com
Eugenie Mielczarek mielczar@,phvsics. gmu.edu
Mark Holland maholland@,salisburv.edu
Deana Jaber diaber@,marvmount.edu
Terrell Erickson terrell.erickson 1 @wdc.nsda.gov
Robin Stombler rstombler@auburnstrat.com
Alain Touwaide atouwaide@hotmail.com
Michael Katehakis mnk@.rci.rutgers.edu
Katharine Gebbie katharine.gebbie@.nist.gov
Jim Egenrieder i im@deepwater.org
Elizabeth Corona elizabethcorona@gmail.com
Washington Academy of Sciences
Ill
Editor’s Comments
This issue of the Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences
(JWAS) deals with the future and the past. Antonio Paris discusses the
challenges of traveling to Mars in his article, “Physiological and
Psychological Aspects of Sending Humans to Mars: Challenges and
Recommendations.” This is clearly about the future! Robert Miller’s
“Shamanism and Totemism in Early Israel” is just as clearly about the
past. Having these two research fields — archeology and space
exploration — juxtaposed as they are in this issue provides a certain
perspective on life today. As we better understand earlier civilizations to
learn from the past, we’re also studying our future options.
This issue of the Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences
also features the Washington Academy of Sciences’ Membership
Directory 2014 which is included annually in the Journal. We appreciate
our members and their interest, as exemplified by Stuart Umpleby’s
Letter to the Editor. Please keep those letters coming . . . and that interest
flowing! Cheers to all those who play a role in keeping an interdisciplinary
peer-reviewed journal such as ours continually published since the 1800s
— including authors, reviewers, proofers, formatters, editors, and many
other behind-the-scenes persons.
I’d like to take this opportunity to also announce that the Journal
of the Washington Academy of Sciences was recently invited to join the
prestigious JSTOR archive dedicated to preserving scholarly literature,
and the Academy’s Board of Managers voted to accept JSTOR’s
invitation! The complete back run of JWAS, which dates to 1899, will be
digitized and made available via the JSTOR online platform.
In addition to the Washington Academy, more than 1,050
publishers, including scholarly societies and publishing academies of
sciences, are currently part of the JSTOR archive which hosts some 2,200
digitized journals comprised of 9 million digitized articles in various
collections. For example, the oldest journal in the JSTOR collections is the
Proceedings and Transactions of the Royal Society of London, which
dates back to 1665.
More than 8,000 institutions from 175 countries make use of
JSTOR, including universities, secondary schools, government and non-
profit organizations, community colleges, museums, and public libraries.
Winter 2014
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Several programs help to make sure that the archive’s contents are
widely-available at a reasonable cost to users such as students and other
science professionals. For instance, in addition to the 8,000+ subscribing
libraries, JSTOR is also available to individual unaffiliated researchers
who can access single articles tlirough various JSTOR accessibility
programs like “Register & Read” and “JPASS.” JSTOR further supports
the African Access Initiative (AAI) and Developing Nations Access
Initiative (DNAI), and these initiatives waive or reduce fees for 1,279 not-
for-profit and academic institutions in developing countries.
The not-for-profit JSTOR archive was conceived to help libraries
and publishers respond to the rising costs associated with the storage of
printed journal literature and to ensure that this material would not be
“losf’ as academic research became increasingly electronic. Tlirough the
digitization of complete journal runs, JSTOR makes it possible for
subscribing libraries to share the costs associated with storage and
maintenance of journal literature, as the non-destructive digitization
process will be done at no cost to the Academy. Furthermore, JSTOR is
offering the Academy a modest revenue-sharing amangement based upon
access to JSTOR by its users.
JSTOR will work from print copies of JWAS to create image files
that are exact replicas of the original Journal pages and text files that
enable searching. Upon completion of this process, users will be able to
conduct full-text searches back to the first volume and issue in 1899 when
JWAS was called the Washington Academy of Sciences Proceedings.
Scholars will then be able to browse, search, view, and print JWAS and the
earlier Proceedings directly from their desktops.
The Academy will retain the copyright to the material published in
its Journal and is planning to convert the current JWAS hard-copy format
to an online version, and exploring hosting JWAS electronically at its own
website for its members and numerous paid individual and institutional
subscribers who will be the only ones to have access to current and recent
issues of JWAS. There will be a 3 -year gap between the most-recently
published issue of the Journal and the last issue available in JSTOR. This
window of time is being designated for the purpose of separating these
paid subscribers and members from the older issues which will be
available via the archive.
Sally A. Rood, PhD, Editor
Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences
Washington Academy of Sciences
I
Letter to the Editor
Ayres’ Bubble Economy and its Scissors Strategy
by
Stuart Umpleby
Robert Ayres’ Guest Editorial (“Energizing Growth in a Bubble
Economy,” Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences, Vol. 100,
No. 3, Fall 2014, p. 1) provides an astute analysis of the domestic and
international economies, particularly from the point of view of energy.
However, I would be interested in knowing what Prof. Ayres is
recommending with the scissors strategy. Is this a strategy for private
investors, for investment banks, or for govermnent?
• If for private investors, is the strategy to buy oil companies
now in anticipation of rising profits and dividends, then invest
the dividends in renewable energy companies?
• If for government, is the strategy to tax oil profits both to
reduce C02 emissions and to generate funds to invest in
research on renewable energy technologies?
• If for investment banks, is he suggesting packaging oil stocks
and renewable energy stocks in a single energy security where
professional managers would handle the internal allocation?
Perhaps we can hear more from Prof. Ayres in the near future to clarify
the ending of his thought-provoking editorial.
Bio
Stuart A. Umpleby is a Professor in the School of Business at The
George Washington University in Washington, D.C. He may be contacted
at umplebv@,gwu.edu.
Winter 2014
Washington Academy of Sciences
Physiological and Psychological Aspects of Sending
Humans to Mars: Challenges and Recommendations
Antonio Paris
St. Petersburg College, Tarpon Springs, Florida
Abstract
The body is an extraordinary and complicated system that
automatically detects, and responds to, dramatic environmental changes
around it, particularly in an environment of weightlessness. The entire
body is involved in the complex and rapid response to micro- or zero-
gravity, and space science is just beginning to form a picture of what is
happening inside the body under these conditions. When an astronaut
goes into space, as will be the case during an eventual mission to Mars,
his or her body will immediately begin to experience a multitude of
changes, causing the astronaut to feel and look slightly different. The
crew would succumb to massive bone and muscle loss as a direct result
of long-term exposure to micro- or zero-gravity, and would suffer cell
damage from ionizing cosmic radiation, potential permanent vision
problems, and psychological and sociological deterioration due to
isolation. Nonetheless, past space flight experiences from crews in the
United States and the former Soviet Union have demonstrated that
humans can survive space flights of several months, or even up to a
year in duration. This study identifies the psychological and
physiological aspects of a manned mission to Mars and will
recommend countermeasures and prevention strategies designed to
combat many of the problems associated with long-term exposures in
space. The International Space Station (ISS), moreover, has an
enormously vital role in assessing the health dangers of sending
humans to Mars. Thus, a recommendation to place a crew on the ISS to
simulate a flight to Mars is addressed.
Introduction
Prior to the twentieth century, there was little opportunity to
explore Mars except via astronomical observations and science fiction [1].
The last few decades, however, have brought forth many significant
achievements in space exploration, transforming the human thirst for
sending humans to Mars into a technologically achievable goal. Recent
breakthroughs in space technology, space medicine, and cooperation
among international space agencies, have contributed significantly toward
transforming this fiction into a reality. There are, however, substantial
differences between low-earth orbit operations and exploring
interplanetary space. A manned mission to Mars will place humans in a
Winter 2014
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remorseless environment that will not tolerate human error or technical
failure. The challenges, to name a few, will include massive bone and
muscle loss as a direct result of long-tenn exposure to micro- or zero
gravity, and cell damage from ionizing cosmic radiation, potential
permanent vision problems, and psychological and sociological
deterioration due to isolation. Moreover, because the distance between
Mars and Earth would require a 2 to 3-year round trip [2] [18], the
massive undertaking of developing nutritional and medical strategies
would be required in order for the mission to Mars to succeed.
1. Physiological Aspects of Space Travel
A journey to Mars would require, at a minimum, two 6-8 month
segments of travel in “deep space” before and after a nominally 18-month
stay on the surface of Mars. On the trips to and from Mars, the crew will
be exposed to micro-gravity and to radiation levels much more severe than
that experienced at the International Space Station (ISS) in low Earth
orbit. During her trip to Mars, for example, the rover Curiosity
experienced radiation levels beyond NASA’s career limit for astronauts.
On the surface of Mars, moreover, gravity is 38% that of Earth’s and
radiation is still very dangerous, but reduced by more than 50% from
levels in deep space. Furthermore, the surface of Mars is generally coated
with dust containing toxic chemicals such as perchlorates. The key
information that we do not have is whether the reduced gravity on the
martian surface is strong enough to afford recovery from the physiological
effects of zero-g, or at least to reduce the deleterious effects discussed in
the sections below. Installing a centrifuge on the ISS could provide some
valuable data — at least on mice or other animal subjects.
1.1 Radiation
Earth’s magnetic field protects astronauts in low Earth orbit from
harmful radiation. Although these astronauts are more exposed to radiation
than humans on the ground, they are still protected by the Earth’s
magnetosphere [2]. A manned mission to Mars, however, will introduce
the spacecraft and its crew to an environment outside of this protective
shield. During the Apollo program, for instance, astronauts on the moon
reported seeing flashes of light, and experienced cataracts; these flashes
were due to radiation from cosmic rays interacting with matter, and
depositing its energy directly into the eyes of the astronaut [3]. It is
important to note, however, that the Apollo missions were comparatively
short and are not comparable to a 2-3 year trip to Mars and back. The crew
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enroute to Mars will be outside of Earth’s magnetosphere and thus will be
at risk from: radiation capable of critically damaging the spacecraft;
absorption of fatal radiation doses from bursts of solar protons due to
coronal mass ejection events with exposures lasting a matter of hours;
and/or potential damage to DNA at the cellular level (which may
eventually lead to cancer).
The first recommendation for a manned mission to Mars, therefore,
requires a spacecraft built with a heavily shielded area that the astronauts
can use to protect themselves from life-threatening radiation events. In the
past decade, concept engineers have moved on from traditional aluminum
shields and envision any spacecraft traveling to Mars with a “storm
shelter” made of better shielding materials. Some ideas include the use of
a magnetic field to create a protective shell around the spacecraft, and use
of low-density materials, such as water tanks (which would be needed
anyway for a long-term mission), to surround the crew’s habitat [4].
Countermeasures other than better shielding would also play a vital role in
protecting the crew from harmful radiation; this would include a diet plan
containing antioxidants such as vitamins E, C, and A, beta-carotene, and
selenium, which have been shown to minimize damage to the skin caused
by radiation [5].
1.2 The Cardiovascular System in Space
Although the cardiovascular and pulmonary systems (including the
heart, lungs, and blood vessels) adapt well in space, they function
differently in micro- or zero-gravity than on Earth. An astronaut’s
cardiovascular system begins to adapt to weightlessness as soon as the
blood and other body fluids shift from their lower extremities (feet, legs,
and lower trunk) to the upper body, chest, and head. The shifting of these
fluids causes the heart to enlarge so that it is capable of handling the
increase of blood flow. Although the astronaut’s body still contains the
same total fluid volume at this point, a higher proportion of fluids have
accumulated in the upper body (resulting in what is commonly referred to
as puffy face and chicken leg syndrome) [9]. The brain and other systems
in his/her body then interpret this increase in blood and fluids as a “flood”
in the upper body. The astronaut’s body reacts to correct this flood by
getting rid of some of the “excess” body fluid (for example, astronauts
become less thirsty and the kidneys increase the output of urine) [6].
These actions decrease the overall quantity of fluids and electrolytes in the
body, which leads to a reduction in total circulating blood volume. Once
the fluid levels have decreased and the heart no longer needs to work
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against gravity, the heart shiinks in size, which can degrade performance
in an astronaut’s duties.
Upon returning to normal gravity, nearly 63% [7] of astronauts
experience postflight orthostatic intolerance. Since the astronaut’s
cardiovascular system adapted to weightlessness in space, it will initially
be unable to function efficiently upon return to gravity. Symptoms of post-
flight orthostatic intolerance include lightheadedness, headaches, fatigue,
altered vision, weakness, sweating, anxiety, and heart palpitations as a
result of the heart racing to compensate for falling blood pressure [7].
Logically, an astronaut experiencing any combination of these symptoms
when he/she arrives on Mars will initially not be able to function (Figure
!)•
Photo source: NASA
Figure I. An astronaut experiencing postflight orthostatic intolerance has difficulty
walking on Earth.
The bigger question is whether or not the crew, after a 6-month
journey in deep space, would be able to function on Mars, which has 62%
less gravity than Earth [8]. When the crew arrives on Mars, the crew
members would hypothetically be stronger compared to astronauts
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returning to Earth’s gravity after a mission of similar length. Recent
studies of astronauts on long-term missions in space, however, suggest a
Mars bound flight with micro-gravity or zero-gravity for as many as 6
months would almost certainly cause incapacitation of the astronauts [18].
Astronauts immediately arriving on Mars would have trouble walking,
suffer fatigue, and be in real danger of bone fracture and intermittent loss
of consciousness. Moreover, according to NASA, six months (the time it
will take to get to Mars) in zero-gravity will take the astronaut 2 years of
recovery time. Therefore, a mission profile which allows only 30-90 days
on the surface of Mars would not give the crew enough time to recover
from the 6 months in zero-gravity [8].
Today, there are several countermeasures and prevention strategies
implemented in the astronaut corps specifically designed to combat
postflight orthostatic intolerance and cardiovascular deconditioning [5].
Prior to spaceflight and tliroughout the journey, it is recommended that
astronauts take part in vigorous aerobic and strength training exercises to
improve endurance, increase blood volume, and maintain or increase heart
mass. Additionally, medications like Erythropoietin (commonly used in
dialysis for cancer patients) and fludrocortisones (commonly used to treat
orthostatic hypotension) can increase red cell mass and blood volume.
More importantly, after landing on Mars, astronauts must be allowed to
gradually adapt to gravity to minimize postflight orthostatic intolerance.
Likewise, the use of G-suits after landing will improve orthostatic
tolerance, while a spacecraft designed with artificial gravity
(intermittently, at a minimum) should theoretically load the vessels of the
lower extremities to help minimize orthostatic intolerance [5].
1.3 The Neuro-Sensory System in Space
The most striking of all of the physiological changes astronauts
experience are the changes in the neurovestibular system, which is the part
of the nervous system largely responsible for balance mechanisms [6].
Weightlessness during a round trip to Mars will affect an astronaut’s
neurovestibular system. His or her perception of body orientation, point of
reference, and equilibrium will be severely altered during the trip to Mars.
As a result, astronauts will experience severe motion sickness symptoms
that include disorientation, dizziness, depressed appetite, vomiting, and, in
severe cases, extreme nausea [7]. This happens simply in part because
weightlessness affects the otolith organs and the semicircular canals, both
of which are in the inner ear. Our awareness and perception of our body’s
orientation on Earth is attributed to the detection of gravity by the otolith
Winter 2014
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organs and the detection of head rotational movements by the semicircular
canals. In weightlessness, these organs have trouble computing the body
orientation relative to gravity, and the resulting signals no longer
correspond with the visual and other sensory signals sent to the brain. In
other words, an astronaut’s brain has no concept of what is “up” or
“down” [6].
Although not as severe as motion sickness, other effects on the
neuro-sensory system will include diminished sensitivity to taste and
smell, difficulty in hand-eye coordination and pointing at or concentrating
on a certain object, and massive hearing stress due to loud life support
equipment inside the spacecraft. After a few weeks in weightlessness,
however, the crew will begin to adapt. They will learn to propel
themselves around by pushing off the overhead, deck, and bulkhead, and
they will learn to “fly” through the spacecraft’s cabin. In an effort to
reinterpret the meaning of the otolith signals, and to provide some sort of a
“dow^n” reference, the interior of the spacecraft should have equipment
and lettering positioned in the same direction.
Historically, motion sickness in space has not been a major
problem. Nonetheless, the key to minimizing motion sickness and other
effects to the vestibular system is prevention. Astronauts selected for the
Mars mission must be those who can adapt to weightlessness easily and
have no history of damage to the neurovestibular system. In the event of
severe cases, medications such as promethazine and scopolamine are
extremely effective in helping with motion sickness and are thus
recommended for a trip to Mars [5]. Other negligible measures to counter
the effects on vestibular function are to add spices and condiments that
offer more taste to meals, and to ensure that astronauts minimize excessive
head movements early into the flight to Mars.
1.4 The Musculo-Skeletal System in Spaee
The human body has about 700 muscles [6]. Many of these muscles
operate as cables that pull on bones to make motion possible. Their
function is contraction — that is, they all work by shortening the angle
between two bones. The force of gravity on the Earth’s surface has shaped
the structural design of nearly all life; our bodies look and function the
way they do partly because of the continuous pull of this ever-present
gravitational force on all of our parts. When we don’t use certain muscles,
however, they can go into “hibernation” mode [6]. In a weightless
environment, where an astronaut does not use his or her muscles for a
Washington Academy of Sciences
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period of time, the muscles themselves begin to waste away, or atrophy.
The long-term result on the astronaut’s load-bearing tissues will be
significant reduction of bone and muscle. Thus, muscle atrophy will cause
problems for astronauts on a mission to Mars. For example, research done
on rats in space discovered that being in microgravity for two weeks had
converted a large portion of their muscle fibers from Type I, which are
muscles efficient at using oxygen to generate more fuel over a longer
period of time, to Type II, which fatigue more quickly than Type I [6].
This is due to the fact that, while in a weightless environment, the rats no
longer needed their legs to balance and control their bodies against the
force of gravity (the rats just floated around from one location to another).
As a result, their muscles essentially began to change during space flight.
Likewise, we must assume that the crew members arriving at Mars will
have weak muscles because they would not have used them as they
normally would on Earth. When the astronaut lands on Mars, his or her
muscles will need to deal with the sudden force of gravity again.
An additional consequence of leaving gravity is that the astronauts
no longer require the full strength of the skeletal and muscular systems for
support of their “upright” posture. This is because astronauts do not stand
up in space. Since their muscles and bones are not used, they depreciate or
“decondition” somewhat [5]. As a consequence, their bones lose calcium
and become weaker and, to a degree, waste away.
When bones develop and grow on Earth in the presence of gravity,
they typically increase simultaneously in length, diameter, and mass; these
three growth characteristics contribute to the strength of the bone. During
space flight, in the absence of gravity, studies have shown that certain
bones appear to grow in length at about the same rate as on Earth, but that
the diameter of the bone is, to some extent, smaller. Data from
Soviet/Russian flights suggests that dicephyseal bone formation may stop
during weightlessness; the rate of elongation of long bones in the body is
not affected by weightlessness, but the rate of circumferential growth
diameter is decreased [6].
Moreover, the low level of light in space means that little vitamin
D will be formed, which will also impair the absorption of calcium,
resulting in even more bone loss [6]. Bone mineral loss in astronauts has
been documented in most early human space flights. Changes in calcium
balance, decreased bone density, and inhibition of bone formation have
also been reported. In addition to the physical changes in bone growth.
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increased urinary calcium excretion has been observed in astronauts in
Skylab and on other flights [3].
For a trip to Mars, therefore, there are potential causes for concern.
The loss of muscle and bone will have a dramatic impact in the crew’s
level of fitness. There are, however, several recommended measures that
can be taken to minimize muscle and bone loss. First, working in
weightlessness does not require a lot of muscle strength, so in an effort to
minimize too much muscle loss, exercise can be done onboard the
spacecraft. Daily exercises include passive stretching, isometric stretching,
multiple small bouts, strength training, and aerobics (Figure 2). Periodic
anthropometric measurements can be taken, and weight can also be
monitored, in order to increase calorie intake in the event of too much
weight loss. Lastly, nutritional supplements such as amino acids and
antioxidants can be used as countermeasures. Similarly, screening
countermeasures could be put into practice to help prevent too much bone
loss; and every effort must be made to select astronauts who have no
hereditary hypercalciuria. Astronauts who have idiopathic osteoporosis or
a high risk of susceptibility to kidney stones should not be selected [9].
For those who are selected, careful monitoring of bone loss is the best
prevention strategy. A diet of low sodium, high calcium and vitamin D
must be strictly enforced, and high impact loading exercise of the lower
extremities must be done periodically. These exercises, which include
squats, leg abductions/adductions, optimal treadmill sessions, and intense
resistant band training, will help in maintaining bone mass. Lastly, the use
of drugs such as potassium citrate can be employed to reduce the chance
of kidney stones [5].
1.5 Potential Risk of Permanent Damage to Vision
The space science medical community has recently realized that
long-term spaceflight can cause severe and possibly permanent vision
problems in astronauts [8]. NASA researchers are conducting experiments
in an effort to comprehend the issue, which, in the case of travelling to
Mars, could present a significant hurdle. In the post-flight examination of
300 U.S. astronauts since 1989, studies have demonstrated that 29% of
space shuttle astronauts and 60% of ISS astronauts experienced significant
degradation of visual acuity [8]. The space science community does not
know the exact cause for the degradation; scientists believe the eye
problems stem largely from an increase in pressure inside the skull,
specifically, from increased pressure from cerebrospinal fluid which
surrounds the brain, which works its way to the optic nerve and pushes on
Washington Academy of Sciences
the back of the eyeball [8]. A spacecraft equipped with artificial gravity,
which would prevent an increase in pressure in the skull, would be the
recommended primary countermeasure to mitigate potential permanent
vision problems.
Photo source: NASA
Figure 2. An astronaut on the International Space Station conducts daily exercise.
2. Psychological Aspects of Space Travel
Of all problems that can be encountered enroute to Mars and back,
effects on the astronaut’s mind may be the biggest risk factor of them all
[17]. As mentioned, a round trip to Mars would take 2-3 years. Anxiety,
depression, and loneliness, along with the stress of routine tasks, tensions
within the crew, and a daily battle to maintain fitness and avoid accidents,
is the ideal recipe for disturbed behavior in space. Although the
psychological effects of living in space for long durations have not been
clearly analyzed, similar studies on Earth do exist, such as those derived
from Arctic research stations and submarines [5] [15]. Many of these
studies confirm psychological stress could be the biggest problem for the
crew. For example, unlike crews on the ISS, the crew enroute to Mars
Winter 2014
caiinot remain in direct contact with their loved ones and are not steadily
supplied with replacement crews, food, or even gifts. Isolation and
confinement pose the greatest challenge for the crew members, and as they
approach the Red Planet, communications between the spacecraft and
Earth become sparser. For example, they would have to wait up to 21
minutes for a message to reach family members and another 21 minutes to
receive a reply [10]. A variety of other psychological and physical effects
have also been observed from both operational and simulated isolated and
confined environments. These factors include motivational decline,
fatigue, insomnia, headaches, digestive problems, and social tensions.
Strained crew relations, heightened friction, and social conflict are also
expected from isolation and confinement.
The experience of Russian and U.S. long duration spaceflight has
revealed the need for psychological countermeasures to support human
crews in space and lessen the impact of these stressors on crews which
will improve mission safety and success while lowering risk. As a result,
countermeasures that involve astronaut selection, training, and in-flight
support are being developed, validated, and implemented.
One method in development is an attempt to select-in
psychologically fit crewmembers, as opposed to merely selecting-out
psychiatrically ill applicants. The Behavior and Performance group at
NASA is currently validating a psychological select-in astronaut selection
methodology [3]. These validation studies have now discovered that
several personality variables such as agreeableness, conscientiousness,
empathy, sociability, and flexibility, among others, are positively
correlated with astronaut performance under stressful conditions,
teamwork, group living, motivation, and decision-making [3].
Psychological training focuses on developing skills for coping with
the stressors of the spaceflight environment and for interacting with fellow
crewmembers as well as with ground control personnel. The training also
deals with leadership styles, multicultural issues, working in an isolated
and confined environment, and communicating with team members.
In-flight psychological support involves ground-based monitoring
by flight psychologists and psychiatrists, in-flight entertainment (such as
videos, books, games, and special items), leisure activities, and
opportunities to communicate with the ground (/.<?., with family and loved
ones); it also extends to care of the families of astronauts on the ground.
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The U.S. space program is now acknowledging that psychological
factors are crucial for supporting the health, well-being, and performance
of astronauts and increasing mission safety and success. Accordingly, new
areas of specialty within the behavioral sciences are emerging, which
focus on space psychology, human factors, habitability, performance, and
space sociology. Health and medical professionals supporting human
spaceflight operations will benefit from data in these areas as well.
Recent studies conducted by NASA, specifically on the ISS, have
shown that a variety of common sense countermeasures have been
successful in keeping astronauts psychologically fit [11]. Some of these
countermeasures, which would be adopted by astronauts enroute to Mars,
include keeping busy with daily tasks, conducting physical workouts,
productive use of free time, and attaining goals that contribute to mental
and emotional well-being [12]. Additionally, maintaining a confidential
journal allows the astronauts to vent and reflect [12].
NASA, moreover, offers psychological support to all astronauts
before, during, and after missions [13]. This support includes:
• Preflight preparation training and briefings in a variety of areas;
• Family teleconferences; and
• Preparation for the psychological hardships of long distance
separation from family and issues likely to arise following the
astronauts’ return.
3. Long-term Food and Nutritional Concerns
Unlike short duration space missions or the ISS, which gets
resupplied periodically, food supply becomes a critical issue for a manned
mission to Mars. While the U.S. military currently produces food with a
long shelf life, astronauts on a mission to Mars will have different
nutritional needs. The food that an astronaut must consume must be of the
highest quality to combat the effects of long-term exposure to
weightlessness, primarily in order to maintain body mass and prevent
disease [6]. Once the crew leaves Earth for Mars, no other options are
accessible and any further supply of additional food must be sent months
or years in advance. The cost of added weight on the spacecraft is also
important and another of the problems that must be overcome prior to
leaving for Mars.
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Furthermore, unlike most food with a long shelf life, the nutritional
requirements for a mission to Mars must be designed so the crew can look
forward to an interesting and varied cuisine while they are away from
home. On the ISS and Space Shuttle (recently retired), food is prepared on
Earth and requires only minimal additional preparation [14]. A mission to
Mars, therefore, will require a shift to a system of production, processing,
preparation and recycling of nutrients in a closed loop environment. This
process is currently designated as Advanced Life Support and it involves
not just the production of food materials but also regeneration of oxygen
and potable water [10].
From a physiological perspective there are number of bodily
changes that have a role in modifying food intake. These bodily changes,
for example, are well documented: early-induced fluid shifts and changes
in the volume of blood and total body water. Gastrointestinal function,
moreover, may be altered due to changes in micro flora and lack of gas
separation in the stomach and intestine [5].
A manned spacecraft built for Mars must have a galley, eating
area, and an exercise station. Also, the crew must have access to
refrigerators, freezers, a microwave, an oven, and ambient temperature
storage for foods. Frozen items should include entrees, vegetables, baked
goods and desserts. The refrigerators, moreover, must be capable of
keeping fresh fruits and vegetables. Some dairy products should be
available, as well as extended shelf life produce. And, at a minimum, a 30-
day [10] repeating menu should be provided, along with the individual
choice of menu within the constraints of nutritional adequacy. Other
considerations factored into the menu must be a diet high in calcium and
vitamin D to maintain bone mass, as well as food low in saturated fats to
prevent cardiovascular disease.
4. Operational Medicine and Health Care Delivery
On a mission to Mars, the crew would not have access to an
emergency room. Moreover, there will not be much room for a full sick
bay, and hands-on medical care will be limited. More importantly, during
the astronaut selection process it is unlikely that one would know if a
crewmember is in the early stages of a deadly or incapacitating disease
that would develop during the journey. Although the probability is low,
there are several possible situations where medical or surgical care could
be required during a mission to Mars. Medical situations that have
emerged during analogous circumstances (for example, crews in
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Antarctica or on submarines) [5] include strokes, appendicitis, bone
fractures, eancer, intracerebral hemorrhage, psychiatric illness, and kidney
stones. Decompression sickness, moreover, is another potential problem
the crew could encounter, particularly during an extravehicular activity, or
when moving between two different pressure environments within the
spaceeraft.
The first step in mitigating any potential medical problem is to
thoroughly screen the crew, and implement prevention and
countermeasure strategies to avoid most medical emergencies during the
flight. A detailed knowledge of each crewmember — and his or her
genetic makeup, to account for heredity eonditions — will be necessary.
Screenings for potential risk for cancer, risk for cardiovascular disease,
and development of kidney stones must be part of the assessment process
to ensure the crew is at optimal health. Prior to, and during the flight, the
erew must also follow an aggressive cardiovascular and cancer prevention
program (and diet) to minimize the risk of disease [7]. The crew must have
access to advanced medical kits which provide a wide range of first aid
and surgical instruments. These kits must inelude antibiotics, allergy
treatments, analgesies, stimulants, eardiovascular drugs, and other drugs
for motion sickness, anxiety, depression, bone loss, and radiation
protection. The crew, moreover, must be trained to eonduct minimally
invasive surgery, and, if needed, use advanced robotic life support such as
Robonaut for trauma (Figure 3). During the flight to Mars, the erew must
conduet medical refresher training and have contact with medical
personnel at ground control. More importantly, it is highly reeommended
that at least one member of the crew is a fully trained medical doctor or
physician with extensive training in space medicine to monitor the crew
while on the mission.
Additionally, astronauts who fly together in space are typically
chosen from a select group of individuals. These astronauts are hand
picked based on the application of evidence-based medical evaluations
and the unique eombination of technieal and behavioral competencies
eritieal to success in long-term spaceflight [15]. The astronaut crew
enroute to Mars will be isolated during the entire trip and thus must
heavily rely on the spacecraft’s onboard systems for health and safety. In
addition, as the spacecraft moves further away from Earth,
eommunications with Mission Managers could be delayed up to 40
minutes due to the large distance that radio communications must travel.
Therefore, the Mars astronaut selection criteria must include a
consideration of psychological and behavioral health issues related to crew
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16
performance during the prolonged lack of communication with Mission
Managers back on Earth [16]. Nevertheless, the medical system developed
and integrated for any mission to Mars will be more robust and intelligent
than any medical care system used on the Space Shuttle or ISS. For
example, the spacecraft would be integrated with medical systems that
will function autonomously with little or no interaction from Mission
Managers back on Earth [16].
Photo source: NASA
Figure 3. NASA is currently studying the use of robots, such as Robonaut, to provide
medical care.
5. Leveraging the International Space Station
From 2007 to 2010, the European Space Agency (ESA), Russia,
and China selected volunteers to take part in a 520-day simulated round-
trip mission to Mars. Known as the MarsSOO program, the volunteers were
sealed in a mocked spacecraft in Moscow, Russia and took part in a study
to investigate the psychological and medical aspects of a long-duration
space mission. Although the Mars500 project provided valuable
information as predicted, a manned mission to Mars will require long-term
medical research under conditions of weightlessness, such as on the ISS.
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With the recent retirement of the U.S. Space Shuttle fleet, the only viable
option would be to use the ISS to simulate a mission to Mars.
The ISS is the most complex and largest international engineering
and scientific project in history. It is over four times larger than Russia’s
Mir space station and longer than a football field [14]. The station’s
primary goals are to enable long-term exploration of space and provide
benefits to all people on Earth. In addition to scientific research on space,
additional projects not related to space exploration, but which have
expanded our understanding of the Earth’s environment, have been
conducted. These experiments have included learning more about the
long-term effects of radiation on crews, nutritional requirements levied
upon astronauts during long-term missions in space, and developing newer
technology that can withstand the harsh environment of space. Other
experiments conducted over several expeditions on the ISS include:
• clinical nutrition assessments of astronauts;
• subregional assessment of bone loss in the axial skeleton in long-
term space flight;
• crewmember and crew-ground interaction during ISS missions;
• effects of altered gravity on spinal cord excitability;
• effect of microgravity on the peripheral subcutaneous veno-
arteriolar reflex in humans;
• assessment and countermeasures to renal stone risk during
spaceflight;
• validation effect of prolonged space flight on human skeletal
muscle;
• bodies in the space environment: relative contributions of internal
and external cues to self; and
• orientation during and after zero gravity exposure [14].
Conclusion
Over the past few decades, a variety of proposals have depicted
spacecraft that are capable of completing a round-trip mission to Mars.
Many, if not all, of these technical proposals can be used to build a
spacecraft using today’s technology. More importantly, any spacecraft
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18
built for such a mission would be an international effort of epic
proportions.
The spacecraft itself, however, is only a part of the solution for
developing a successful mission. As noted in this paper, there are still
many physiological and psychological challenges the crew destined for
Mars must overcome. Although dozens of astronauts have been used as
test subjects for physiological and psychological experiments, and
preventive strategies and countermeasures have been implemented, we
still do not have a lot of knowledge concerning long-term exposure to
spaceflight. We can learn more about long-term exposure to a weightless
environment, and how it will affect a manned mission to Mars, by
simulating such a mission on the ISS. At a minimum, a crew can spend
two years on the station to simulate the amount of time it would take to
travel to Mars and back (not counting the amount of time spent on Mars
waiting for point of departure). We can use the time spent on the station to
continue with additional scientific and medical experiments to determine
the effects of long-term exposure and, more importantly, develop
additional (or better) countermeasures to ensure a successful mission to
the Red Planet.
Ultimately, going to Mars makes sense, as it is the next step in
space exploration. Unsurprisingly, there continue to be many unanswered
questions about long-term exposure in space and how it can affect the
crew physiologically and psychologically. Nonetheless, we have the right
technology, personnel, and pioneering spirit to address these challenges,
move forward, and conquer this bold goal.
Sources
[1] Graham, I. Space Travel, 2nd Edition. New York, NY: DK Publishing,
2010.
[2] Beatty, J. K., C. C. Peterson, and A. Chaikin. The New Solar System,
4th Edition. Cambridge: Sky Publishing, 1999.
[3] The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Apollo Flight
Journal, Accessed Feb 19, 2010, http://historv.nasa.gov/afi.
[4] Angelo, J. A. The Dictionary of Space Technology. 3rd Edition, New
York, NY: Facts on Files, Inc., 2006.
[5] Buckey, J. C. Space Physiology. New York: Oxford University Press,
2006.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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[6] Morphew, M. E. Psychological and Human Factors in Long Duration
Spaceflight. NASA Johnson Space Center, 2001.
[7] Clement, G. Fundamentals of Space Medicine. The Netherlands:
Springer, 2005.
[8] Spaeeflight Bad for Astronauts’ Vision, Study Suggests (2012).
Spaceflight.com. Accessed Dec 6, 2014,
http://www.space.com/14876-astronaut-spaceflight-vision-
problems.html.
[9] Roger D. L., NASA: A History of the U.S. Civil Space Program,
Malabar, Florida: Krieger Publishing Company, 1994, 55-96.
[10] Darling, D. The Complete Book of Space Flight. Hoboken, NJ: John
Wiley & Sons, 2003.
[1 1] Thirsk, R., A. Kuipers, C. Mukai, and D. Williams. “The Space-flight
Environment: The International Space Station and Beyond.” Can.
Med. Assoc. J. 180, (2009): 1216-1220.
[12] Stuster, J. Behavioral Issues Associated with Long Duration Space
Expeditions: Review and Analysis of Astronaut Journals. Santa
Barbara, CA: Anacapa Sciences, 2011.
[13] Johnson, P. J. “The Roles of NASA, U.S. Astronauts and Their
Families in Long-duration Missions.’’' Acta Astr onautic a, 67, no. 5-6
(2010), 561-571.
[14] The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, “The
International Space Station.” Accessed Feb 24, 2010,
http://www.nasa.gov.
[15] Griffiths, T. Slicing the Silence: Voyaging to Antarctica. Sydney,
Australia: University of New South Wales Press, 2007.
[16] Bishop, S. L. “From Earth Analogs to Space: Getting There From
Here.” In Psychology of Space Exploration: Contemporary Research
in Historical Perspective, edited by D. Vakock. NASA History Series,
2011,47-77.
[17] Suedfeld, P. (2010). Historical space psychology: Early terrestrial
explorations as Mars analogues. Planetary and Space Science. 58,
639-645.
Winter 2014
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[18] The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, A Crew Mission
to Mars (2012);
http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetarv/mars/marsprof.html (accessed Dec
6, 2014).
Bio
Antonio Paris is a Professor of Astronomy at St. Petersburg
College, Florida. Additionally, he is the Chief Scientist at the Center for
Planetary Science, a space science outreach program designed to shape the
next generation of space explorers by encouraging underprivileged
students to embrace astronomy, astrophysics and planetary science. He is
the author of two books. Space Science (2014) and Aerial Phenomena
(2012).
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Shamanism and Totemism in Early Israel
Robert D. Miller II
The Catholic University of America, Washington, D.C.
Abstract
This essay examines the arehaeology of religion for Early Iron Age
Israel in the light of ethnographic analogy. The anthropological
categories of shamanism and totemism provide a framework for best
explaining the archaeological data for this society, the highlands of
Palestine from 1200 to 1000 BCE, and for understanding the ritual and
religious life of this culture.
Introduction
Several important histories of early Iron Age Israel have appeared
in recent years. * These provided archaeologically-based reconstructions of
early Israelite society and economics. Yet the “relatively few, highly
complex and ambiguity-ridden concepts around which the social
organization of a culture revolves and the emotional and intellectual
energy of its members is largely spent” have been largely ignored. That
is, religion, broadly defined, has been for the most part left to the study of
the biblical text alone.
Archaeology, as the study of artifacts (including structures), is
keenly poised to explore the mental representations pertaining to artifacts
that are tied up with the practices for which they were used.'^ The most
obvious example is archaeology of ritual, defined with Rappoport as “the
performance of more or less invariant sequences of formal acts and
utterances not entirely encoded by the performers.”^ But there is more. All
artifacts have a symbolic, ideological side — distinct according to context
in most cases (ideology does not exist independently of material culture)
— that can sometimes be seen in morphological analysis of those
artifacts. Sacred memory is regularly abetted by non-linguistic artifacts,
in both oral and textual cultures, and archaeology is also able to examine
o
this aspect of artifacts. Archaeology, therefore, can be a key resource in
reconstructing early Israelite religion.
The archaeology of religion will include both architecture of
special places and the artifacts associated with such places,^ although
“There are very few, if any, locations that categorically exclude either
ritual or mundane activities.”'^ Significant also will be mortuary
information. ' '
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Rather than simply catalog, we must explain the religion from the
artifacts. One could easily assume the biblical text provides such an
interpretation; it would be most difficult to prove that it does not. But such
information is inextricably bound with thick cultural concepts, intentions,
and concerns of the author’s own period and of many others before his
time. “ The biblical text cannot be used as a direct source for
reconstructing cultural concepts. Given the near impossibility of
identifying texts of a specific timeframe, let us explain the artefactual
evidence by ethnographic analogy. “The comparative approach does not
entail, a priori, any identification, full or partial, of the phenomena or
developments which are being compared.” But, “reconstructions cannot
be achieved without the help of the comparative method,”*'^ We cannot
simply “attempt, by inductive, empiricist research to infer the religion of
early Israel from supposedly objective archaeological data; no matter how
'objective’ a researcher tries to be or how well he or she knows the data,
the method produces only an illusion of objectivity and inevitability.”'^
Ethnographic analogy will provide explanation of the
archaeological realia. But one should accept these analogies not merely
because of multiple areas of correspondence and sheer weight of parallels.
“The piling up of common attributes cannot be said to make one analogy
more probable than another.” Rather, the merit of the analogies derives
from seeing the same causal/determining mechanism in both societies,
Israel and the comparand, the same behavioral systems that produce
particular artefactual patterns. In what follows, then, I will outline the
artefactual evidence, and then use ethnographic analogy to explain Early
Israelite religion in terms of two recurring patterns of religious
representation found throughout human groups, shamanism and
19
totemism.
Archaeology of Early Iron Age Israelite Religion
Since the archaeology of religion includes architecture of special
places and associated artifacts, let us first catalog ritual space in Iron I
Israel. The site of el-Burnat Sitti Salaamiyya, conveniently called for
several decades now “Mt. Ebal,” a single-period site on the eastern slope
of Mount Ebal, has three strata dating from the Late Bronze Age to the
mid-12"’ century B.C.E. What makes the site most interesting and the
focus of questions regarding its function, is a rectilinear structure from
Stratum IB (1200-1 140 B.C.E.) of 323 square feet, with corners oriented
to the compass points, having no floor or entrance, filled with bones of
bulls, sheep, goats, and deer, ash, and pottery.^'' On the southeast side of
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the structure is what may be a ramp, and there are well-paved, rectangular
courtyards around the structure on three sides. The percentage of pHhoi
and jugs in the site’s pottery assemblage is higher than most Iron I
highland sites, and the percentage of cooking pots lower, while sickle
blades are completely absent. There is a large quantity of bones,
especially of deer bones. Most of the bones were burnt, with 44% of the
burned remains coming from the central structure, and 63% of the deer
bones coming from it.^"* Deep cut marks on antlers and a disproportionate
amount of deer crania illustrate the intentional removal of antlers. It all
seems to add up to a large permanent altar. Mt. EbaTs “structure” is
oriented to compass points and has a ramp like non-iron I altars, but has
no altar horns, and no other altars have bone or ash fill. So,
acknowledging that ritual locations often host a variety of rituals for the
same group of people,*" Mt. Ebal is a cultic site of some sort, albeit not a
very “biblical” one in light of the compass orientation, the ritual use of
deer (kosher, but illicit for sacrifice), and some sort of liturgical(?) use of
their antlers.
1 A
There may have been a Secondary Public Cult Room at Ai. At
the end of a street in Site D, there is tiny room #65 (8.5m x 2.5m), with a
bench at foot of its wall all the way around, where a 4-story tall 80cm tall
31
fenestrated incense burner with paws as a base was found. Analogous
pieces are Megiddo P6055 and others, two at Tell Qasile, and three at Beth
Shean. Inside the burner was a clay animal figure (#1091) of either a
greyhound dog or a jackal (not a mouse), similar to one found at
Taanach. Also in the room were a bowl for a cult stand, having a chalice
profile with a tang (#1054),^^^ a bovine figurine,^'^ and a bowl (#1055) with
flat base and a row of breasts around the carination. The form of this room
suggests, on the basis of ethnographic analogy, “a focus on transformation
via small group communitas performance rituals; strong smells in smoky,
enclosed spaces; and rites of initiation and myth telling.”
The building at Tell el-Farah North/Tirzah (Level Vila) that
Chambon called a temple in .16 (squares 487-491) is an Iron I house of a
type with a rectangular space bordered with rooms on three sides, the sides
set off by pillars and the end by a wall, although it is paved, has an
additional vestibule, and lies directly over the Middle Bronze Age temple.
There was a statuette made of bell bronze or Corinthian brass (silver-
bronze alloy) found in the building in the shape of an anthropomorphic
goddess (#1.491).^^ Such larger spaces, ethnographically, “were gathering
points for a group to participate in sensory, communal performances of
music ... (sound), incense (smell), and food (taste).
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24
The so-called “Bull Site” is not an Iron I slirine."^^ The pottery and
the flint assemblages are those of domestic habitations/' although it did
produce an incense burner — we will return to the “Bull” below. But a
serious concern is its dating. Although the excavator'^^ always referred to
the site single-period Iron 1/“^ an independent survey of the site found only
five percent of the sherds collected to be Iron And if Finkelstein’s
redating of “Einun” pottery to the Middle Bronze Age is correct, then 90%
of the pottery found at the site is Middle Bronze. Lawrence Stager is
correct that the “Migdal Temple” of Shechem is not from the Iron I
period.
J.8
Overall, this amounts to few cult sites. This is especially clear in
comparison to clearly cultic Iron I buildings at Dan (Room 7082), Tell
Abu Hawam (T.30), Beth Shean (ST and NT), and Tel Qasile (XII, XI,
and X). But these, along with much of the data outlined by Albertz and
Schmitt in their Family and Household Religion, are all outside of the
central hill country to which most scholars would limit early Israel.
Moving from locations to objects, the same artifact can be both
household cookware and a ritual vessel, depending on the cultural context
in which a person uses it.^^ So to focus our gaze, “Objects can and do
manifest a religious function of one sort or another when they appear in
other identifiable cultic contexts such as temples, shrines, and
sanctuaries.”^'
As for cult objects, beginning with things found in shrines or
tombs, note that the famous “bull” of the “Bull Site” was not found by
archaeologists but was a chance surface discovery by a soldier.^ It cannot
be reliably included. The Bull site did produce a ceramic incense burner
(if it is analogous to ones from Megiddo and Beth Shean) or model of a
shrine (if analogous to one at Tell el-Farah North)^^ — unless these are
Middle Bronze.
From a tomb at Dothan come two animal figurines and an
anthropomorphic lamp (#P1344) with a prone male human figure with
arms outstretched as if flying, wearing a crown of five clay globules, stuck
on the underside (Figure 1). There are no parallels. It is 16cm long, made
with applied clay in the imitation of a giant clam’s shell. Dothan tombs
also produced two jugs shaped like bulls (#P1237 and #P1232). We have
already listed a number of figurines from Ai Site D.
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Figure 1. Anthropomorphic lamp with prone male human figure from Dothan tomb.
If we expand the list to inelude figurines found outside of cultie
securely contexts, we will include Shiloh’s Iron I Building 335, with a
stand decorated with a leopard killing a deer, a figurative applique of a
horse, the head of a lion on a cooking pot, and a ram’s head on a krater
handle. At Ai’s Area B South Bench House, locus 1801.4, a figurine of a
goose 7.5cm long was found, similar to ones at Beth Shean (“Denyer
1976" Report in Nicol Museum of the Southern Baptist Theological
Seminary). A horse figurine was also found in the South Bench House.
Two figurines of horses’ busts come from Bethel (#1054 from Room 308
and #1112 from uncertain locus) and a human figurine (#328 from locus
44).^^ An “Astarte” plaque (#104) was also found there, although lacking
the divine symbols common on Late Bronze age equivalents.' An
identical plaque was found at Dothan.
There was very little in the way of permanent cubic facilities in
early Israel, if these existed at all. Incense burners and their stands were
CO
quite common. These stands and the associated figurines and chalices do
not present “elevated levels of sensory pageantry,” so much as suggest
regular use.^^ This would suggest “frequently-performed rituals
accompanied by comparatively low levels of sensory pageantry. There
is possible evidence of altars for the sacrifice of caprovids and a ritual use
of deer antlers. There is no ritual use of antlers in the Bible, and antlers do
not appear in Pardee’s list of ninety-two different objects mentioned as
offerings in Ugaritic texts. Deer skulls with antlers and separate antlers
were found in a temple at Hasanlu on the Iranian plateau, dated to the 1 1^'L
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26
9^'’ centuries BCE.^^ Here, the phenomenon must be related to the
extensive deer ieonography at the site, although its specific supernatural
signifieance is impossible to detemrine.^^
Evidence for Shamanism
Searching the etlinographic world for ritual use of antlers shows
they are primarily connected with “Shamanism.”^"^ Masks are an essential
element of shamanism. In most shamanic cultures, the masks represent
the animal spirits and enhance the connection with them.^^ Mongolian
shamans of the Empire period, however, wore antlers in their headwear as
a symbol of the struggle against Buddhism. Other shamans wore masks
of animals they intended to hunt, to ensure an adequate take for the
community.
While some deer-spirit masks are completely theriomorphic, it is
also possible to affix real or artificial antlers to an anthropomorphic mask,
and there are examples from Siberia, the Q'eqchi' Maya, Hopewell (200
BCE-400 CE), and at the Spiro Mounds in Oklahoma (1200-1450 CE).^^
Masks are a common artifact found in temples and graves
throughout Syria, Mesopotamia, and Iran.^^ There are Humbaba masks
from Old Babylonian Kish, with the means to attach them to one’s face.^'
There is a Late Bronze II mask from the Stelai Shrine at Hazor. Masks
have been found in Iron I Palestine at Philistine Temple 200 of Tel Qasile,
dated to the 1 f’ century, and from 1 fVlO^'kcentury Ashdod (Strata X-IX)
and 10 -century Tel Sera. There are countless examples from the Iron II
period (from Shuafat, Jerusalem, Beersheba, Achziv, etc.). There were
mask fragment found in the cultic area of Tel Dan from the so-called
“Bamah A,” which Biran connected with Jeroboam I. Dalia Pakman has
shown that the mask was originally fixed to an incense stand found
nearby. The mask in question, however, has no eyeholes and was not
intended to be worn.^'"'
The function of these masks was always unclear. Reichert
thought they were used in ritual dances, as seems to have been the case in
Cyprus, representing “divine radiation.” Those from Hazor, Kition,
Enkomi, Kourion, and Sarepta were all found in or near sacred areas.
Theriomorphic deer masks, with real antlers attached, are worn for dances
by the Yaqui and Mayo people of northern Mexico.
Lucian says that ritual masks were used in the Attis cult at Syrian
Hierapolis (Dea Assyr., 15). Herodotus records their use in Egypt (II, 122).
A Beset mask is depicted on a female Sau, or healer, from a 1 7‘'Ecentury
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BCE tomb near the Ramesseum.^^ Also in the tomb was a box containing
medical papyri.^' A block from a 24‘'hcentury BCE tomb from Giza
depicts a procession of young dancers, scourged by a youth or a dwarf in a
Bes mask,^^ similar to 19‘'Ecentury BCE painted canvas Bes masks found
m a house at el-Lahun.
Let us turn to the incense altars. Most “biblical archaeologists”
automatically relate these to “offering the pleasing odor of incense to the
Lord” (Exod 29:25; 29:41; Lev 1:9, 13, 17; 16:12; etc.). The later temple
in Jerusalem included an incense altar used for such purposes. But
continuity of material evidence for ritual practices does not necessarily
reflect a continuity of associated beliefs. Etlmographically, they seem
best suited for use in “smudging,” cleansing places, persons, or objects of
negative spiritual energies and inviting benevolent spirits. Raz Kletter
and Irit Ziffer have shown that incense was “used in Iron Age cults of the
86
Southern Levant much more commonly than previously believed.”
07
Smudging is a key element of shamanic healing.
In Mongolia, each shaman has his (or her ) own complex recipe
for the burning material. Common burning materials for smudging
worldwide include Artemisia (wormwood), which was abundant in the
Judean Desert, Foothills of Samaria, and Plain of Sharon in the Iron I
period, and most importantly juniper, which in Iron I grew in the Foothills
of Samaria, the Plain of Sharon, and the Southern Nablus Syncline.
Egypt was aware of Palestine as a source of “incense,” storax or mastic
incense (cf Gen 37:25), as an ostracon from the Ramesseum bears the
inscription ntr sntr hSrw, “incense from Khor [Syria-Palestine].”^' There
is no need to depend on imported frankincense {Boswellia sp.). Myrrh was
also indigenous in the Iron I highlands and extensively marketed in later
periods.^ Juniper (Mong. area) is the essential smudging fuel in
Mongolian shamanism for purification of small votive figurines,^^ and in
Baloch and Kashmiri shamanism for inducing ecstatic trances.
There is evidence for similar uses of incense in the ancient Near
East. Incense was used in Egypt to fumigate the Uraeus of the Mortuary
Temple of Ramesses III, as a means of purification. When Piye
conquered Memphis, he purified the city by burning incense in it.^^
Papyrus Smith describes smudging with 'nty^v resin and satv resin incense
to cure a woman of delayed menstruation.^^
In Mesopotamia, the term for incense in general is qulrianu, from
the root qataru, which in the D-stem means, “to let go up in smoke.
The root seems to be more tied to fumigation than offering, and incense
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frequently appears in Mesopotamian purification texts. It is unclear if
the Hebrew and Ugaritic root QTR (>Ar. miqt ara, censer) should be
linked to the Akk. QTR (>Ar. qatara, to exhale and odor).'^' Juniper
(Sum. li gal li gal -la) was commonly used to purify (along with reed
and tamarisk, both of which grew in Iron I Israel). Smudging by the “chief
purification priest of Eridug” accompanies “cleaning” the temple in
Gudea’s Cylinders A-B account of the building of Ningirsu’s temple
(c.2.1.7, line c217.890). Thus, they play an important role in the mis-pi
ritual for “enlivening” a new statue of a god. Although Dick’s
translation refers to a “censer of juniper,” the instructions that call for
“heaped incense” (Sum. na-dea si ga)^^"^ suggest the “censer” could be
an incense stand or bowl (Akk maksiitu). So-called “censers,” again
incense stands, are kept at the head of beds in private homes, as in the
Neo-Assyrian (and later) Maqlu rituals, asafetida is burned on one by the
bed of the sick person.'^'"’ A Neo- Assyrian exorcism ritual describes a
censer for juniper in the same position.
But large statues are not the only items dedicated by juniper
smudging. Dick’s publication of a Neo-Sumerian text from Nippur CBS
8241 in the University of Pemisylvania Museum provides for
purification/dedication of “seven statuettes” (line 24) with “great juniper”
(line 4), reed, cedar, and myrtle. Other items purified by qutaru include
drums and bells.
As in the Maqlv ritual, cuneiform texts also describe medicinal use
of incense, such as are prescribed for the sick crown prince in ABL 570,
1 1 or to treat consuming fever in CT 23, 3 (K.2473+2551, 15).*^^
There is another possibility with the incense burners, however.
Shamanism always involves altered states of consciousness, and in many
cases these are brought on by psychotropic substances.’’’ For Native
112
American groups, these were smoked; high-nicotine forms of tobacco.
Incense burned in Iron I Israel would not have been frankincense.
It would have included Artemisia judaica (wormwood), Artemisia
arhorescens (tree wormwood), Artemisia herha-alha (white wormwood),
Juniperus phoenicea (Phoenician juniper), Liquidamhar orieatalis (Styrax
balsam”^), mastic resin from Pistacia lentiscus,'^^‘^ Commiphora myrrha
(myrrh), Commiphora gileadensis (balm),”^ Retama raetam
(broomtree), and labdanum resin from Cistus creticus (pink rock-
rose). ’
Wormwood smudging is a key treatment in Traditional Chinese
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Medicine,"^ and Egyptian Beduins smudge the leaves to ward off evil
1 90
spirits. Inhaling its smoke causes significant decreases in heart rate,
which intensify the longer one inhales. This is accompanied by
significant changes in the percentage changes in sequential chamber
complexes in the electrocardiogram (ECG). “ The net effect would be a
depressant effect on the body and a stress reduced tendency toward quiet
behavior. " Anecdotal evidence from the internet of those who have
smoked wormwood denies any hallucinogenic effect, but ascribes to it
“extremely vivid dreams ... otherworldly travel, etc. The vividness that it
causes can also translate into trance and trance-like half-sleep states,
which also helps with channeling.” Scientific studies also reported light
euphoria. Artemisia herba-alba in particular suppresses arachidomc
1 9A
acid metabolism, which will have major effects on neurons m the
brain. The thujones in wormwood inhibit GABA receptor activation so
128
that neurons fire more easily.
With juniper, the leaves are used as incense, the anti-bacterial
smoke of which is used even today to repel evil and disease in
1 9Q
Mazandaran Province, Iran. Pawnee Skidi Bear Society participants
inhale the smoke from juniper’s burning twigs ceremonially, and it is said
130
to cure nervousness and nightmares. It was also used in Ghost Dance
1 o 1
hand game rituals.
Styrax balsam smudging was the only repellant for “small winged
snakes” according to Herodotus {Histories 3.107). Styrax balsam or balm
- which is unclear - was praised for its medicinal properties by Galen,
Pliny {Natural History), Celsus {De Medicina), Qusta ibn Luqa, Hayyim
1 39
ben Joseph Vital, and Ibn al-Baitar. Experimentally, it has been shown
to reduce systemic arterial blood pressure and reduce heart rate. It is
usually mixed with labdanum for burning.
Mastic has been used medicinally since antiquity (Pedanius
13^
Dioscorides, Materia Medica; Hippocrates; Galen). ' It has been
1 3f
smudged in Iran to purify the air. Experimentally, its smoke functions
1 37
as a bronchodilator.
Broomtree smoke contains cytosine, and it has been smoked
recreationally for its reported mild intoxicating properties and a
heightened awareness of color. Its molecular structure has some similarity
to that of nicotine and it has similar pharmacological effects.
Labdanum resin was used to treat colds, coughs, and rheumatism
(Herodotus, Histories 3.112; Pedanius Dioscorides, Materia Medica
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1.128; Pliny, Natural History, \231)}^^ A perusal of the internet finds
that those who “smoke it’' writing, “It totally messes with intelleetual
abilities ... It is very very relaxing but not very sedative. In faet it has a
stimulant side to it.”
When eonsidering the inventory of Israelite “images,” especially
those found in association with public slirines, no aniconic tendency is
evident, although all statuary is markedly small. Humans, dogs, horses,
bulls, and geese are all represented, with a slight preference for human
females. As small as these figurines are, their affinity is to the shaman’s
“ongons,” among which the wolf and goose are common according to the
Mongolian ethnographic record.'”^' Archaeologically, human women
figurines are prevalent in Mongolian shaman graves. Bird and human
forms are most common in the closely-related Siberian shamanism,
although the wolf or dog is also known. In societies with shamans,
“ordinary people as well as shamans carried charms and amulets for
protection against spirits, disease, and misfortune,” including “fabricated
talismans include[ing] small figures carved from wood, ivory, and
stone.” In Mongolia, reports of religion of the 12‘'^-13‘'’ centuries speak
not only of the shaman’s ongons but also of domestic gods, house-gods.
Evidence for Totemism
But it should also be noted that Shamanism is a common feature of
totemic societies. If the anthropological literature on shamanism is
ambivalent, that on totemism is downright suspect. Discussion of
totemism vanished in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s, and by the time biblical
archaeologists discovered anthropology, it was a dead concept. But
beginning in the late 1990s, totemism reappeared in anthropological
literature, most importantly in the work of Philippe Descola. New
totemism can be seen as analogous to ethnicity. Ethnicity is now
understood as communal self-definition, a marked opposition between
“we” and “other,” having its genesis in historical forces and becoming
inscribed in culture and the impetus for concrete actions. So, too, totemism
is one historically-specific form of such self-classification, collective
identity embodied symbolically in markers of contrast between different
social groups. Totemism, unlike ethnicity, emerges with the
establishment oi symmetrical relations between structurally similar social
groups (even when there are short-term inequalities between them).''"’^
Thus, totemic social relations are wholly vertical or hierarchical in nature,
as opposed to a horizontal, egalitarian animism, as Descola maintained.
The symbolic markers of contrast in totemism are “kinships” or ritual
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1 c
relationships between humans and animals. ' Since differences between
species are empirically observable, a man who cannot imagine himself to
be like other men notes the sort of animals whose differences from his
fellow animals are homologous with those that distinguish the man from
his fellow men. And on occasion non-animals, especially plants,
function similarly.
The Iban of Borneo have mcmang, who are healers of the body and
spirit, never dangerous sorcerers.*'''^ They are best considered shamans.
Their business is to combat the spirits that move at night afflicting people,
invisible to ordinary individuals,'^^ and to retrieve their patients’ “lost
souls” that have strayed away from the body. Each Iban shaman has a
unique spirit helper with an animal name, distinct from the totem of
whatever clan the shaman has come from, for Iban shamanism is not
hereditary. ' Moreover, shamanism is not an exclusive vocation in Iban
• . 159
society.
Munda of west-central India have similar shamanism; it is an
achieved vocation rather than an inherited ability. The Munda, too,
believe in the “stray soul” phenomenon,'^' and — at least among the
1 62
Birhor, a hunter-gatherer subgroup of the Munda, each shaman also has
1 63
his spirit-animal.
With the Kpelle of Liberia, the Zo medicine men constitute a
distinct sodality. As with the Iban, the Kpelle medicine man can come
from any clan. But he then joins one of the medicine societies, which
functions as a clan of its own. No medicine is practiced except by the
medicine societies. But the medicine societies also become hereditary
clans. A man becomes a Zo by joining one of the societies, but all male
members of the patrilineal families of Zo members are also The
Kpelle medicine man operates as the Iban does, with spirit helpers and
• 1 67
spirit adversaries.
Osage medicine men or Wakon’dagi were much more dangerous
and feared, as they could harm their enemies.'^'' The Sauk (now Sac and
Fox) had both kinds — the shaman Sisa'ki'euk who with animal-spirit
helpers combatted spirits to heal the sick, and other doctors who could
harm one with magic.
The practices of these medicine men regularly involve smudging.
For the Birhor, incense was used. The Osage smudged with tobacco,'^'
spotted water hemlock, and staghorn sumac, while the Fox used old
field balsam.
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Masks are likewise an important part of totemism. For the Sepik
River/Murik Lakes people of northern New Guinea, masks, used in
ceremonies, are handed down from generation to generation, they have
great power; the mask named Gweim was known to have killed many
people. The masks have spirits, which can possess people, or can be
communicated with to gain assistance. The Kpelle also inherit totemic
masks with ritual functions. Masks form one example of “symbolic
property.” Clans and their individuals have perceived kin or ritual
relationships (e.g., protection) to their totems. For perceptions of the
past, this might mean the totem had revealed itself to an ancestor of the
clan. This may be manifest in descent trees, in personal names, or in
symbolic property held by the clan. For practices of the present,
individuals may observe sacred or aesthetic attitudes to the totem animal.
Masks bridge both categories, as symbolic property employed in present
practices.
Symbolic property is particularly important with Sac and Fox
totemism. Fox sacred bundles are owned collectively by the members of a
clan. The cloth-bound bundles are handed down from generation to
1 82
generation, and specific ceremonies belong to each bundle. Moreover,
the bundles were laden with power even outside of the rituals. The
contents of such bundles, indecorously purchased and ripped open by
early 20^^-century ethnologists, include small figurines - animal and
anthropomorphic — along with jewelry, feather, and fabric. Sepik and
Birhor symbolic property includes stones or carved objects that are small
1 8^
enough to be carried around. '
Let me return to the small figurines of early Israel. One horse bust
from Bethel Phase 1 was found in Room 308 along with a bone pendant
with many holes (#1051), a yellow bead (#1070), a carnelian bead
(#1076), and a red stone scarab (#1073; Albright and Kelso 1968:63-65).
The “Astarte Plaque” from Bethel (#104 from Sub6) was found with
carnelian bead (#116 Pittsburgh Theological Seminary #2-0019). These
are not random curios. The nearest source of carnelian was the Nubian
Desert west of Lake Nasser or from Yemen, but most of the carnelian in
antiquity came from western India. The jackal from Ai was found inside
the incense burner with a carnelian-and-glass beaded necklace, and next
to the burner was the bovine figurine. At Tell Dothan, Level 6, in Area
A, the Astarte plaque was found together with a feathered bone wand, a
small copper chain, and a carved lion head. Substances like carnelian,
only obtained from journeying to the geographical limits of the known
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world or by exchange with peoples who did so, often have the power to
heal or bring fortune in shamanistic societies.
The small figurines of the Iron I highlands were nearly all found
either in groups or in mini-hordes with other precious objects. Might we
be looking at symbolic property, even sacred bundles?
The flying-man lamp from Dothan is particularly interesting
(Figure 2). It is an imitation of a giant clam. Both Maxima Clam
{Tridacna maxima) and Fluted Giant Clam {Tridacna squamosa) are
found in the Red Sea. There are no similar species in the Mediterranean.
Regardless of whether the inhabitants of Dothan knew where the shell was
really found, they had attempted to invoke a far distant land, even a
“World Rim,” commonly the place where supernatural entities reside. The
lamp design itself would have been a statement of shamanic power given
that it was modeled after a creature found far outside the boundaries of the
Israelite world.
Figure 2. Flying-man lamp imitates a giant clam.
But this is not just a clam shell, it is a flying man (Figure 3). The
man is somewhat hidden until the lamp is manipulated in just the right
way. If the lamp’s underside itself is meant to suggest wings attached to
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the man’s amis, then it is a hybrid creature similar to those of the
shamanic Hopewell. The being is flying, like the bird costumes worn by
Siberian shamans to travel to the sky world.
Figure 3. Flying-man lamp from Dothan.
Finally, let us turn back to the sacred spaces of early Israel. Recall
the sort of “kiva” at Ai and the larger temple at Tirzah. The Mount Ebal
altar is oriented to the compass points. Such cardinal orientation serves to
anchor the quadrants of the world whose origin is in the human body and
perception, using the sun as a reference point. “Orthogonal pairs of
points establish a quadripartite universe, with north-south and east-west
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situated at right angles to eaeh other. In this system, the east-west line of
the sun’s rising and setting at the equinoxes is crossed by an orthogonal
north-south line, thereby forming a cross — often used as a symbol for the
world’s four quarters.” ’^^The large plaza around the altar, then, could have
^ , 1 97
been used like Woodland earthworks for world renewal ceremonies.
The catalogue of mortuary evidence from the Iron I highland
settlement is meager. Sufficient excavation has taken place now to say that
it is too meager, and that graves should have been found. The mam
disposal method was simple inhumation outside of settlements. Elizabeth
Bloch-Smith disputes this conclusion because no simple inhumation
burials have ever been found in the Iron I countryside, but the statistical
unlikelihood of coming across such skeletal remains unassociated with
architecture is huge.'^^
For simple inliumation of single individuals away from
settlements, there is one main ethnographic analogy, and it is ancient
Mongolia, the quintessential home of shamanism. Written documents
from the early historical period attest to funerary practices of leaving
bodies exposed or in trees, followed by simple inhumation or leaving the
bones in situ. Archaeological investigation has found simple
inhumation to be “the prevalent funerary practice during the Genghis
209
Khan period in Mongolia.” Shamans were especially noted for their
909
isolated, hidden tombs, since their tombs were feared and to be avoided
— if they were buried at all: many deceased Mongol shamans were simply
left in the forest to decompose.
The few tombs of the central highlands fall into two groups:
pottery-only graves and others. Tell en-Nasbeh Tomb 29, Jelamet 'Amer,
Taiyiba, and Tell Dothan’s Khirbet en-Namleh cemetery all have nothing
but pottery. Tell en-Nasbeh Tomb 54, Khirbet Nisya Tomb 65, Tell
Dothan Tomb I, Level 1, and Tomb 3 have many additional types of grave
goods. There is nearly a double correlation of this division with tomb
location: while some of the pottery-only tombs are located in major cities,
the graves with multiple types of goods all are attached to sites. This
dichotomy between pottery-only tombs, isolated or urban, and city graves
with higher numbers of artifact types (“NAT”) could have any number of
reasons — cultural or social. We cannot suggest that the elites were buried
in the towns and the poor in the country, given the Cypriote Black-on-Red
ware from the isolated pottery-only grave at Taiyiba, and Tell en-Nasbeh’ s
pottery-only Tomb 29 beside NAT=8 Tomb 54. Tombs from Gibeon and
Tell el-Farah North also seem to be pottery-only.
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Keeping in mind that burial sites are in essence liminal areas,
selection of grave goods required intimate knowledge of the symbolism of
the goods and their preferred placement. Tell en-Nasbeh tomb 54
contained two large bronze bracelets (still on the arms of the deceased),
twenty-five iron rings, two iron arrowheads, nine eyelet pins, two crude
stamp seals, one with two arms and two legs and the other of a horned
animal with three legs (#M2650), one cylinder seal 20mm long, 13m
diameter, with bearded men facing left with raised arms (#M2647, object
registry #35.3138; photo #1498),^^^ as well as a large assortment of
dishware and cookware. Khirbet Nisya tomb 65 contained over fifty
carnelian beads, cut cowry shells (Cypraea), two pendants in the shape
of Egyptian white lotus seed pods, two elongated stone pendants made
of limestone plated with metal, six bronze rings, one iron ring, twelve
bronze bracelets, nine iron (carbon steel) bracelets from a Transjordanian
source, two Hyksos scarabs, a half-dozen bronze toggle pins, a cone-
shaped seal with a man with his amis up and two squiggles at his sides,
and assorted basalt and ivory objects — altogether, fifty metal items for
fifty people. Thus, we again see carnelian and other imported luxury items
obtained from journeying to the geographical limits of the known world or
by exchange with peoples who did so, often having the power to heal or
212
bring fortune in shamanistic societies.
Conclusions
We have examined the archaeology of religion for 12^'’- nth-
century BCE Israel in the light of ethnographic analogy. The religion of
this earliest Israelite community, according to the archaeology,
corresponds closely to the praxes integral to shamanism all over the world.
Shamanism must have been widespread not only in popular “folk
religion,” but also among an elite whose material produce was of material
durable enough for artifacts to attesting to its beliefs.
The case for totemism is modest, but plausible. Further research
will be required in order to establish the extent to which totemic social
relations predominated in Early Iron Age Israel, but these initial
observations are suggestive that they did.
' E.g., M. Liverani, Israel’s Histoty and the Histoiy of Israel (Bible World 8; London;
Equinox Books, 2005). Throughout this essay, I freely attach the label “Israel” to the Iron
I highlands of Palestine, for reasons presented thoroughly in Robert D. Miller 11,
“Identifying Earliest Israel,” Biillelin of the American Schools of Oriental Research 333
(2004): 55-68; and reiterated in Raz Kletter, “Can a Proto-Israelite Please Stand Up?” in /
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37
Will Speak in Riddles of Ancient Times, ed. Aren M. Maier and Pierre de Miroschedji
(Winona Lake: Eisenbrauns, 2005), 581-82. For dissenting views, see Avraham Faust,
“Farmsteads in the Foothills of Western Samaria,” in / Will Speak in Riddles of Ancient
Times, ed. Aren M. Maier and Pierre de Miroschedji (Winona Lake: Eisenbrauns, 2005),
494, 496.
■ Livia Polanyi, “What Stories can Tell Us about Their Teller’s World,” Poetics Today 2
(1981): 99.
^ This reflects a similar avoidance of religion by archaeologists of other regions and
cultures; David S. Whitley and Kelley Hays-Gilpin, “Religion Beyond Icon, Burial and
Monument,” in Belief in the Past: Theoretical Approaches to the Archaeology of
Religion, ed. D. S. Whitley and K. Hays-Gilpin (Walnut Creek, CA: Left Coast, 2008),
12.
Exceptions include Ziony Zevit, The Religions of Ancient Israel (London: Continuum,
2001) and John Barton and Francesca Stavrakopoulou, Religious Diversity in Ancient
Israel and Judah (London: T & T Clark, 2010), but these are focused on the Iron II
period. Were archaeologists to eschew biblical texts because they are often highly
scholastic products of the religious elite, a reticence found also in archaeologists of India,
this would be equally problematic; Lars Fogelin, “History, Ethnography, and
Essentialism,” in The Archaeology of Ritual, ed. E. Kyriakidis (Cotsen Institute of
Archaeology Advanced Seminars 3; Los Angeles: University of California Press, 2007),
23-42.
^ Robert N. McCauley and E. Thomas Lawson, “Cognition, Religious Ritual, and
Archaeology,” in The Archaeology of Ritual, ed. E. Kyriakidis (Cotsen Institute of
Archaeology Advanced Seminars 3; Los Angeles: University of California Press, 2007),
3, 7.
^ Roy A. Rappoport, Ritual and Religion in the Making of Humanity (Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press, 1999), 24; McCauley and Lawson, “Cognition,” 2. We must
recognize, however, that most religious activity in small-scale societies may be informal
behavior; Elizabeth V. Culley, “Supernatural Metaphors and Belief in the Past: Defining
an Archaeology of Religion,” in Belief in the Past: Theoretical Approaches to the
Archaeology of Religion, ed. D. S. Whitley and K. Hays-Gilpin (Walnut Creek, CA: Left
Coast, 2008), 68.
^ William F. Romain, Shamans of the Lost World: A Cognitive Approach to the
Prehistoric Religion of the Ohio Hopewell (Issues in Eastern Woodlands Archaeology;
Lanham, MD: AltaMira, 201 1), 33; Katherine A. Bard, “Toward an Interpretation of the
role of Ideology in the Evolution of Complex Society in Egypt,” Journal of
Anthropological Archaeology^ 1 1 (1992): 3-4; Ezra B. W. Zubrow, “Cognitive
Archaeology Reconsidered,” in The Ancient Mind, ed. C. Renfrew and E. B. W. Zubrow
(New Directions in Archaeology; Cambridge: University, 1994), 189.
^ McCauley and Lawson, “Cognition,” 9.
^ Colin Renfrew, “Archaeology of Religion,” in The Ancient Mind, ed. C. Renfrew and E.
B. W. Zubrow (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), 49.
Winter 2014
38
Evangelos Kyriakidis, “Finding Ritual: Calibrating the Evidence,” in The Archaeology
of Ritual, ed. E. Kyriakidis (Cotsen Institute of Archaeology Advanced Seminars 3; Los
Angeles: University of California Press, 2007), 17.
" John M. O’Shea, Mortuaiy Variability York: Academic, 1984), 18; Bard,
“Toward an Interpretation,” 3. I will avoid labeling this “popular religion,” a term rightly
rejected altogether; Natalie Zemon Davis, “From ‘Popular Religion’ to Religious
Cultures” in Reformation Europe ed. S. Ozment (St. Louis: Center for Reformation
Research, 1982), 322; Astrid Nunn, Alltag im Alten Orient (Mainz: Philipp von Zabem,
2006), 58. After all, is the designation “popular” used because this was the religion of the
common person or because it shows non-normative local particularity (Roger Chartier,
“Culture as Appropriation,” in Understanding Popular Culture, ed. S. L. Kaplan [New
Babylon Studies in Social Sciences 40; Berlin: Mouton, 1984], 230, 233)? “Religion
must always be studied as the religion of certain groups in a given time and place”;
Davis, “From Popular Religion,” 322). At the same time, all archaeology of religion is
bound to unpack only artifacts attesting to the beliefs of an elite whose material produce
was of a durable material; Thomas E. Emerson and Timothy R. Pauketat, “Historical-
processual Archaeology and Culture Making: Unpacking the Southern Cult and
Mississippian Religion,” in Belief in the Past: Theoretical Approaches to the
Archaeology’ of Religion, ed. D. S. Whitley and K. Hays-Gilpin (Walnut Creek, CA: Left
Coast, 2008), 171.
William G. Dever, “Philology, Theology, and Archaeology,” in Archaeology’ of Israel,
ed. Neil A. Silberman and D. Small (Journal for the Study of the Old Testament
Supplement 237; Sheffield: Sheffield Academic Press, 1997), 298.
McCauley and Lawson, “Cognition,” 8.
Ignace J. Gelb, “Comparative Method in the Study of the Society and Economy of the
Ancient Near East,” Rocznik Orientalistyczny A\ (1980): 32.
Gelb, “Comparative Method,” 35.
J. David Lewis-Williams, “Wrestling with Analogy,” Proceedings of the Prehistoric
Society 51 {\99\): 149.
Lewis-Williams, “Wrestling,” 152.
Lewis-Williams, “Wrestling,” 152-53.
Cf McCauley and Lawson, “Cognition,” 8.
Ralph K. Hawkins, The Iron Age I Structure on Mt. Ehal (Winona Lake: Eisenbrauns,
2012), 9,39.
Hawkins, Iron Age I Structure, 9, 43.
Hawkins, Iron Age ! Structure, 10, 57, 60.
Hawkins, Iron Age I Structure, 64-65.
Hawkins, Iron Age I Structure, 10, 65.
Hawkins, Iron Age I Structure, 64.
Washington Academy of Sciences
39
Hawkins, Iron Age I Structure, 148. Such compass orientation is common worldwide;
Caroline Malone, “Ritual, Space and Structure,” in Cult and Context, ed. D. A.
Barrowclough and C. Malone (Oxford: Oxbow Books, 2007), 26.
Hawkins, Iron Age I Structure, 149-50.
Kyriakidis, “Finding Ritual,” 15.
Hawkins, Iron Age I Structure, 1 80, 224.
Garth H. Gilmour, The Archaeology of Cult in the Southern Levant in the Early Iron
Age Diss., Oxford (1995) 173, 427.
Judith Marquet-Krause, “La Deuxieme Campagne de Fouilles a Ay,” Syria 16 (1935):
340.
M. W. Allen, “A Synthetic Reconstruction of the Religion of Iron Age Ai and
Raddanah,” unpublished term paper for Southern Baptist Theological Seminary
(Louisville, 1980), 38, 60.
Gilmour, Archaeology of Cult, 172.
Garth Gilmour, Early Israelite Religion during the Period of the Judges (Kaplan
Centre for Jewish Studies and Research Occasional Papers 1; Cape Town: University of
Cape Town Press, 1997), 89.
Gilmour, Archaeology of Cult, 172-73; P. Thomsen, “Ai (et-Tell), Archiv fiir
Orientforschung 1 1 (1936/37): 95.
Christine Hastorf, “Archaeological Andean Rituals,” in The Archaeology of Ritual, ed.
E. Kyriakidis (Cotsen Institute of Archaeology Advanced Seminars 3; Los Angeles:
University of California Press, 2007), 86.
Alain Chambon, Tell el-Farah I (Paris: Editions Recherche sur les Civilisations, 1984),
20.
Roland de Vaux, “Les fouilles de Tell el Farah, pres Naplouse, Sixieme Campagne,”
Revue Biblique 64 (1957): 575; Frank Braemer, L ’Architecture doinestique du Levant a
TAge du Per (Protohistoire du Levant 8; Paris: Recherches sur les Civilisations, 1982),
71.
Chambon, Tell el-Farah, 20.
Hastorf, “Archaeological Andean Rituals,” 93.
Contra William G. Dever, “Archaeology and Ancient Israelite Iconography,” in I Will
Speak in Riddles of Ancient Times, ed. Aren M. Maier and Pierre de Miroschedji (Winona
Lake: Eisenbrauns, 2005), 464.
Amihai Mazar, “Bull Site,” Bulletin of the American Schools of Oriental Research 247
(1982): 41.
The entire excavation of this site took one day; Amihai Mazar, “Appointees’ Evening
with Guest Scholar,” Albright Institute for Archaeological Research (Jerusalem, February
1997).
Winter 2014
40
Mazar, “Bull Site”; Mazar, “Cultic Sites from the Period of the Judges in the Northern
Samarian Hills,” Eretz Israel 16 (1982): 135-45, in Hebrew.
Adam Zertal, Manasseh Hill Country’ Siu’vey (Haifa: University, 1996, in Hebrew),
2.169.
Israel Finkelstein, “Two Notes on Northern Samaria: The ‘Eeinun Pottery’ and the
Date of the ‘Bull Site’,” Palestine Exploration Quarterly 130 (1998): 97. This last factor
should weigh against the bull the least, as Finkelstein’s dating of the Einun pottery has
been questioned. Einun pottery occurs at some sites that show no other Middle Bronze
Age remains but do contain Iron I. See Amihai Mazar, “The ‘Bull Site’ and the ‘Einun
pottery’ xtconsxdiQrQdP Palestine Exploration Quarterly 131 (199): 146-47.
Lawrence Stager, “Fortress-Temple at Shechem and the ‘House of El, Lord of the
Covenant,”’ in Realia Dei, ed. Prescott H. Williams, Jr., and Theodore Hiebert (Atlanta:
Scholars Press, 1999), 228-49; Wolfgang Zwickel, Tempelkult in Kanaan und Israel
(Tubingen: J. C. B. Mohr, 1994), 76.
48
On the lack of Iron 1 cultic sites in Benjamin specifically, see Scott M. Langston,
Cultic Sites in the Tribe of Benjamin (American University Studies 7.200; New York:
Peter Lang, 1998), 72-179.
Rudiger Schmitt and Rainer Albertz. Family and Household Religion in Ancient Israel
and Levant (Winona Lake, IN: Eisenbrauns, 2012), 496-98.
Emily S. K. Anderson, “Signs in Human Hands: A Model for the Intonated Object,” in
Beyond Belief: The Archaeology of Religion and Ritual, ed. Y. M. Rowan
(Archaeological Papers of the American Anthropological Association 21; Hoboken:
Wiley, 2012), 168.
Brian B. Schmidt, “The Social Matrix of Early Judean Magic and Divination,” in
Beyond Hatti, ed. Billie Jean Collins and Piotr Michalowski (Atlanta: Lockwood, 2013),
281; Anderson, “Signs,” 169.
Mazar, “Bull Site”; Contra Dever, “Archaeology and Ancient,” 464.
” Mazar, “Bull Site,” 36-37, fig. 10.
Albertz and Schmitt, Family, 169.
Albertz and Schmitt, Family, 75.
Albertz and Schmitt, Family, 84.
Zevit, Religions, 270. The goddess Astarte is the most likely candidate for the goddess
depicted on the Late Bronze Age terra-cotta plaques that are popular in the southern
Levant before the rise of the Judean pillar figurines in Judah (see P. Moorey, Idols of the
People: Miniature Images of Clay in the Ancient Near East [Oxford University Press,
2004]). Some scholars have expressed doubts that the plaque figurines represent a
goddess, as they lack divine attributes. They are found mostly in domestic contexts, some
in graves. While it is true that not all representations of naked women need necessarily
depict goddesses, it is also the case that goddesses need not be represented with divine
attributes. The nude female figures on models of shrines or temples, usually in pairs,
sometimes three, or on clay towers and cultic stands from both Syria and Palestine, lack
Washington Academy of Sciences
41
divine attributes, but are clearly divine figures. Occasionally they are standing on lions, a
symbol of Astarte (as in the horse frontlets). This does not make the figure on the plaque
figurines, or the Judean pillar figurines, necessarily representative of deities, but it does
remove the only real argument that they were not goddesses. See Shawna Dolansky, “Re-
Figuring Judean “Fertility” Figurines: Fetishistic Functions of the Feminine Form,” in
Israelite Religion and Old Testament Theolog\\ ed. R. D. Miller II, forthcoming.
Menaham Haran (“‘Incense Altars’ - Are They?” in Biblical Archaeology Today 1990
[Jerusalem: Israel Exploration Society, 1993), 237-47; “Altar-ed States: Incense Theory
Goes Up in Smoke,” BRev I l.I [Feb 1995]: 30-37, 48) argues that these were not incense
altars but altars for small-scale vegetable offerings, but the comparative ancient Near
Eastern evidence, cited below, does not support Haran’s view. Seymour Gitin’s (“The
Four-Horned Altar and Sacred Space,” in Sacred Time, Sacred Place, ed. B. M. Gittlen
[Winona Lake: Eisenbrauns, 2002], 95-123) study of incense altars is primarily about
Iron II Israelite, Judahite, and Philistine examples.
McCauley and Lawson, “Cognition,” 35.
McCauley and Lawson, “Cognition,” 34.
Dennis Pardee, Ritual and Cult at Ugarit (Writings from the Ancient World 10;
Atlanta: Society of Biblical Literature, 2002), 224-25.
6^
■ Trudy S. Kawami, “Deer in Art, Life and Death in Northwestern Iran,” Iranica Antigua
40 (2005): 121.
Kawami, “Deer,” 122, 127.
Ewan Fletcher, Man and Nature: Symbolism of Antlers in the Mesolithic and Neolithic
(Diss., Edinburgh, 2001); Gary Edson, Shamanism (Jefferson, NC: McFarland &
Company, Inc., 2009), 83. A definition of shamanism is rather elusive. Yet the term
allows the “rendering, as faithfully and subtly as possible, into a lingua franca of
scholarly discourse, where analytical terms are employed which on the one hand are
arguably applicable to the case under study, but which at the same time have a wider
range of applicability, involving other cultures, other settings in time and space”; Wim
Van Binsbergen and Frans Wiggermann, “Magic in History,” expanded version of
“Magic in History” in Mesopotamian Magic, ed. T. Abusch and K. van der Toorn
(Groningen: Styx, 1999), at http://www.shikanda.net/ancient models/gen3/magic.htm.
Roughly, shamanism is a complex of beliefs and practices based in the idea that spirits
pervade the universe and that these spirits can be deliberately contacted for specific
purposes by specific persons through altered states of consciousness. Cf Romain,
Shamans, 7-10.
Thomas A. DuBois, An Introduction to Shamanism (Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press, 2009), 182-84.
Romain, Shamans, \92>-9A-, Serge King, “The Way of the Adventurer,” in Shamanism,
ed. Shirley Nicholson (Wheaton: Quest Books, 1987), 192; Edson, Shamanism, 24.
Purev Otgony and Purvee Gurbadaryn, Mongolian Shamanism (4th ed. Ulaanbaatar:
Admon, 2004), 181.
Edson, Shamanism, 34.
Winter 2014
42
Romain, Shamans, 41-42; Edson, Shamanism, 236. Deer Shamanism often
accompanies Bear Shamanism; Romain, Shamans, 39-42. There is bear shamanism in
Neolithic Anatolia; Ali Umut Turkcan, “Is it a goddess or a bear?” Documenta
Praehistorica 34 (2007): 260. No bear bones have been found in Iron 1 Israel. But in the
Late Bronze Age, there exist seventeen bear bones from Lachish (LB 11-111), and there are
a few Iron II examples each from Tel Dan (9th/8th century), Hazor (1 bone, 9th century),
and Tel Qiri. We should be surprised to see that there are seventeen bear bones from LB
Lachish, plus two additional undated specimens. Wild animals of any sort are relatively
rare on post-Neolithic sites in the Near East, and carnivores other than dogs are even
rarer. Hunting was uncommon and carnivore populations were never high. Because of the
skeletal elements present in the Lachish examples and the cut marks on them, they most
likely came with bear skins and thus may have been traded in that form from wherever
the animals were killed. The biblical text describes Elijah, an erstwhile shaman (see R. D.
Miller, “Shamanism in Early Israel,” Wiener Zeitschrift fur die Kunde des Morgenlandes
101 (201 1): 335-37) as a “Lord of Hair,” lyty '7V3, not wearing a garment of haircloth but
perhaps a bearskin, or himself hairy as a bear. The shaman Elisha can speak to bears in 2
Kgs 2:24.
A. Reichert, “Kultmaske” Biblisches Reallexikon 2 (1977): 195.
Jane B. Carter, “Masks of Ortheia,” American Journal of Archaeology^ 9\ (1987): 362.
Similar masks come from later Cyprus; Carter, “Masks,” 363. On possible connections to
the Akhziv mask, see Carter, “Masks,” 364.
A similar mask was found in 1 l'*’-century Kition; Carter, “Masks,” 366.
Raz Kletter, “To Cast an Image,” in Up to the Gates ofEkron, ed. S. W. Crawford et al.
(Jerusalem: Albright Institute for Archaeological Research, 2007), 189.
Kletter, “To Cast an Image,” 190, 195. Two antlers and a mask (the nose and part of
the eye socket opening next to the bridge of the nose) were found in the 2009 season of
excavation of LBIIb Beth Shemesh; Dale Manor, personal communication.
See Dalia Pakman, “‘Mask-like’ Face Reliefs on a Painted Stand from the Sacred
Precinct at Tel Dan,” Eretz Israel 27 (2003): 196-203.
Reichert, “Kultmaske,” 195.
Reichert, “Kultmaske,” 196. The Cypriote illustrations are also noted by Kletter, “To
Cast an Image,” 195.
Carter, “Masks,” 370.
Edson, Shamanism, 53.
Geraldine Pinch, Magic in Ancient Egypt (Austin: University of Texas Press, 1995),
56-57, fig. 27.
Pinch, Magic, 131.
Pinch, Magic, 84, 121-22, fig. 63.
*■’ Pinch, Magic, 122, 132, fig. 71.
Washington Academy of Sciences
43
84
Kyriakidis, “Finding Ritual,” 16; Joyce Marcus, “Rethinking Ritual,” in The
Archaeolog}’ of Ritual, ed. E. Kyriakidis (Cotsen Institute of Archaeology Advanced
Seminars 3; Los Angeles: University of California Press, 2007), 67. In fact, much of
religious ritual’s form is overwhelmingly independent of the changing meanings;
McCauley and Lawson, 1 1.
Melissa A. Pfliig, “‘Pimadaziwin’: Contemporary Rituals in Odawa Community,”
American Indian Quarterly 20 (1996): 501, 509; Joyce Mullin, Linda Lee, Sharon
Hertwig, and Gordon Silverthorn, “Native Smudging Ceremony,” Canadian Nurse 97.9
(2001): 20-22; Tarrell A. A. Portman and Michael T. Garrett, “Native American Healing
Traditions,” International Journal of Disability, Development, and Education 53 (2006):
464.
Raz Kletter and Irit Ziffer, “Incense-Burning Rituals,” lEJ 60 (2010): 183.
David G. Mandelbaum, “Supernatural Curing,” paper presented at the annual meeting
of the American Anthropological Association, 1970 (Papers of John T. Hitchcock,
Smithsonian Institution National Anthropological Archives).
** On the importance of female shamans, see Eva J. N. Friedman, “Amidst Steppe and
Taiga,” in Shamanism in Interdisciplinary Context, ed. Art Leete and R. Paul Fimhaber
(Boca Raton: Brown Walker Press, 2001), 226.
Otgony and Gurbadaryn, Mongolian Shamanism, 264.
On the importance of these fumigants, see Harvest McCampbell, Sacred Smoke
(Summertown, TN: Native Voices, 2002), 47, 51, 65, 85. On the occurrence of these
plants in Iron I, see Robert D. Miller II, “Modeling the Farm in Early Iron Age Israel,”
pp. 289-3 1 0 in Life and Culture in the Ancient Near East, ed. R. E. Averbeck, M. W.
Chavalas, and D. B. Weisberg (Bethesda, MD: CDL Press, 2003).
Kjeld Nielsen, Incense in Ancient Israel (VTSup 38; Leiden: E. J. Brill, 1986), 7.
Tommaso Gnoli, “La Produzione del Balsamo nell’Oasi di Engaddi (Israele),” in
Profumi d’ Arabia, ed. Alessandra Avanzini (Saggi di Storia Antica 1 1; Rome: “L’Erma”
di Bretschneider, 1997), 413-29.
Otgony and Gurbadaryn, Mongolian Shamanism, 261 .
Marcello Pennacchio, Lara Jefferson, and Kayri Havens, Uses and Abuses of Plant-
Derived Smoke (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010), 107-108.
Nielsen, Incense, 1 1 .
Nielsen, Incense, 13.
Nielsen, Incense, 12.
Nielsen, Incense, 27.
Although this, too, is attested; Marie-Louise Thomsen, “Witchcraft and Magic in
Ancient Mesopotamia,” in Biblical and Pagan Societies, ed. Bengt Ankarloo and Stuart
Clark (Witchcraft and Magic in Europe 1; Philadelphia: University of Pennysivania
Press, 2001), 46.
Winter 2014
44
Giorgio Banti and Riccardo Contini “Names of Aromata in Semitic and Cushitic
Languages,” in Profumi d’Arabia, ed. Alessandra Avanzini (Saggi di Storia Antica 1 1;
Rome: “L’Erma” di Bretschneider, 1997), 173; Nielsen, Incense, 32.
Banti and Contini, “Names,” 173; Nielsen, Incense, 58
E.g., Nineveh Ritual lines 43, 50, 57, 75, 77, 1 16; Babylonian Ritual line rev. 41.
Michael B. Dick, Born in Heaven, Made on Earth (Winona Lake: Eisenbrauns, 1999),
e.g., rev. 12’, TuL #27.
E.g., ISET 1 217 Ni 4176; Iddin-Dagan A to Ninsiana) ETCL
translation t.2.5.1, lines 195-97.
Tablet IX, lines 121-24; Gerhard Meier, Die Assyrische Beschwornngssamblung
Maqlu (AfO Beiheft 2; Berlin: Berger, 1937; E.T. by Ross S. Caldwell and Marie-Helene
Hoffmann).
10.298, line 10.
Michael B. Dick, “A Neo-Sumerian Ritual Tablet in Philadelphia,” Journal of Near
Eastern Studies 64 (2005): 278.
I Qg
Chicago Assyrian Dictionaiy (CAD) 13, 321, citing Namburbi texts.
CAD 13,321.
"^CAD 13, 322.
David S. Whitley, “Cognition, Emotion, and Belief: First Steps in an Archaeology of
Religion,” in Belief in the Past: Theoretical Approaches to the Aixhaeolog)’ of Religion,
ed. D. S. Whitley and K. Hays-Gilpin (Walnut Creek, CA: Left Coast, 2008), 92;
Roma'm, Shamans, 177-78.
"■ Romain, Shamans, 1 79-8 1 .
The source of this is not Styrax officinalis, which does not produce an aromatic sap.
Michal Artzy, “Incense, camels, and Collared Rim Jars,” Oxford Journal of
Archaeology 13 (1994): 131; Israel Finkelstein, Iibet Sartah (BAR International Series
299; Oxford: British Archaeological Reports, 1985), 154.
P. Quezel, “The Study of Plant Groupings in the Countries Surrounding the
Mediterranean,” in Mediterranean-Type Shrublands, ed. F. di Castri, D. W. Goodall, and
R. L. Specht (Ecosystems of the World 1 1; Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1981), 91.
David Iluz, Miri Hoffman, Nechama Gilboa-Garber, and Zohar Amar, “Medicinal
Properties of Commiphora gileadensis," African Journal of Pharmacy and Pharmacology’
4 (2010): 516.
Wilem Van Zeist, “Past and Present Environments of the Jordan Valley,” Studies in
the Histoiy and Archaeology of Jordan 2 (1985): 203.
Zvi Goffer, Elsevier’s Dictionaiy of Archaeological Materials and Archaeometiy
(Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1996), 242.
Washington Academy of Sciences
45
Baixioao Zhao, Gerhard Litscher, Jun Li, Lu Want, Yingxue Cui, Chaxi Huang, Ping
Liu, “Effects of Moxa {Artemisia vulgaris). Smoke Inhalation on Heart Rate and Its
Variability,” Chinese Medicine 2 (201 1): 53.
1
Dale J. Osborn, “Notes on medicinal and other uses of plants in Egypt,” Economic
Botany 22 (1968): 165-77.
Zhao et al., “Effects,” 54.
Zhao et al., “Effects,” 54.
Zhao et al., “Effects,”56.
http://breelandwalker.tumblr.eom/post/70272390917/is-mugwort-simplv-a-
hallucinogen-or-is-it-poisonous-i:
http://www.shroomerv.Org/forums/showflat.php/Number/4258367/fpart/all/vc/l
John Wheeler, Belinda Coppock, and Cecil Chen, “Does the burning of moxa
(Artemisia vulgaris) in Traditional Chinese Medicine constitute a health hazard?”
Acupuncture Medicine 21 (2009): 16-20; R. K. Siegel, “Herbal Intoxication,” Journal of
the American Medical Association 236 (1976): 473.
Uwe R. Juergens, M. Stober, and H. Vetter, “Inhibition of Cytokine Production and
Arachidonic Acid Metabolism by Eucalyptol (1.8-Cineole) in Human Blood Monocytes
in vitro.” European Journal of Medical Research 3 (1998): 508-510.
Daniele Piomelli, “Arachidonic Acid,” in Neuropsychopharmacology: The Fifth
Generation of Progress, ed. K. L. Davis, D. Charney, J. T. Coyle, and C. Nemeroff
(Philadelphia: Lippincott, Williams, & Wilkins, 2002).
'■* K. M. Hold, N. S. Sirisoma, T. Ikeda, T. Narahashi, and J. E. Casida JE “Alpha-
thujone (the active component of absinthe): gamma-aminobutyric acid type A receptor
modulation and metabolic detoxification,” Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences 97 (2000): 3826-3 1 .
Atefeh Pirani, Hamid Moazzeni, Shahab Mirinejad, Farzaneh Naghibi, and Mahmoud
Mosaddegh, “Ethnobotany of Juniperus excelsa M. Bieb. (Cupressaceae) in Iran,”
Ethnobotany Research and Applications 9 (201 1): 339-40.
C. Randy Ledford, “Pawnee Ethnic Botany Plant Listing,” Oklahoma Native Plant
Record 12 (2012): 35.
Ledford, “Pawnee Ethnic Botany,” 35-36. Juniper smoke is heavy in
deoxypodophyllotoxin, which can cause neuronal cytotoxicity; Caitlyn D. Carpenter,
Taryn O’Neill, Nadia Picot, John A. Johnson, Gilles A. Robichaud, Duncan Webster, and
Christopher A. Gray, “Anti-mycobacterial natural products from the Canadian medicinal
Juniperus communis," Journal of Ethnopharmacolog}’ 143 (2012): 695-700; Rong
Gao, “Pharmocological Effect of Deoxypodophyllotoxin,” Neurotoxolog}’ 6 (201 1): 680-
86.
IIuz et al., “Medicinal Properties,” 5 1 7.
Iluz et al., “Medicinal Properties,” 517-18.
Winter 2014
46
Sotirios Paraschos, Prokopios. Magiatis, and Sofia Mitakou, “In vitro and in vivo
activities of Chios mastic gum extracts and constituents against Helicobacter pylori,”
Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 5 1 (2006): 551-59.
Farhad U. Huwez, Debbie Thirwell, Alan Cockayne, and Dlawer A. Ala’aldeen,
“Mastic Gum Kills Helicobacter pylori,” New England Journal of Medicine 339 (26):
1946.
Abdolali Mohagheghzadeh, Pouya Faridi, and Younes Ghasemi, “Analysis of Mount
Atlas Mastic Smoke,” Fitoterapia 81 (2010): 577-80.
Mohagheghzadeh et al, “Analysis”; Ethan B. Russo, “Taming THC,” British Journal
of Pharmacology’ 163 (201 1): 1344-64.
Judith J. Prochaska, Smita Das, and Neal L Benowitz, “Cytisine, the world’s oldest
smoking cessation aid,” British Medical Journal 347 (2013): 5198.
Cf Ilya Gershevitch, Cambridge Histoty of Iran: Vol. 2, The Median and Achaemenid
Periods (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985); Anton von Baron Stoerck, A
Second Essay’ on the Medicinal Nature of Hemlock, etc. (London: n.p., 1762), 14.
http://entheogen-network.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=25720
Otgony and Gurbadaryn, Mongolian Shamanism, 105.
Ivan V. Aseyev, “Ritual Oh]ecX?,," Archaeology, Ethnology’, and Anthropology of
Eurasia 26 (2006): 55.
Balzer, “Flights of the Sacred,” 308-309; Balzer, “Sustainable Faith,” 92.
Edson, Shamanism, 85.
Heissig, “Shamanism,” 228, 233.
Pedersen argues that there is no totemism without shamans; Morten A. Pedersen,
“Totemism, Animism, and North Asian Indigenous Ontologies,” Journal of the Royal
Anthropological Institute 1 (200 1 ): 4 1 8- 1 9.
The origin of the term, drawn from Ojibwa (Although the Ojibwa are not a good
example of totemism; Christopher Vecsey, Traditional Ojibwa Religion [Philadelphia:
American Philosophical Society, 1983], 78) was an 1869 study by the Scottish
ethnologist, John Ferguson McLennan, “The Worship of Plants and Animals.” McLennan
proposed that “Men first worshipped plants; next the heavenly bodies, supposed to be
animals”; John Ferguson McLennan, “Worship of Plants and Animals,” Fortnightly
Review 6-7 (1869-70): 407. Drawing his evidence from American Indians and Australian
Aborigines, he described the relationship of a man and his totem, which was his
protector, kindred within a system of matrilineal exogamy, and taboo as food. Totemism
survived into the rise of scientific anthropological archaeology and the Kulturgeschichte
thinkers of the 1920s, beginning with Clark Wissler and continuing through James
Griffin in the 1950s. A culture was a list of traits, and one such list could be totemism;
Pedersen, “Totemism,” 417. Bronislaw Malinowski {Magic, Science and Religion and
Other Essays [Glencoe, Illinois: The Free Press, 1948], 44-47) upheld the importance of
dietary taboos corresponding to the totem of a clan, derived from the perceived kinship
between clan and totem. The death of totemism in anthropology came from Levi-Strauss
Washington Academy of Sciences
47
in 1963. Levi-Strauss argued that the term encompassed at least four distinct structural
perceptions of societies, which could not be lumped under a single category. Contrary to
the “myth” of totemism, the thought of such societies rests upon a rich and complex
conceptual structure. The entire concept of totemism was an artifact of Western thinking
imposed by anthropology, a projection of Christian separation of man and nature on
societies whose thought patterns still functioned in a mythic, timeless mode.
Rane Willerslev and Olga Ulturgasheva, “Revisiting the Animism versus Totemism
Debate,” in Animism in Rainforest and Tundra, ed. M. Brightman, V. E. Grotti, and O.
Ulturgasheva (New York: Berghahn, 2012), 48.
John L. Comaroff, “Of Totemism and Ethnicity,” Ethnos: Journal of Anthropology 52
(1987): 302-304.
Comaroff, “Of Totemism,” 307.
Willersley and Ulturgasheva, “Revisiting,” 49-50; Pedersen, “Totemism,” 412.
Alan Bleakley, The Animalizing Imagination (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2000),
134.
Pedersen, “Totemism,” 420.
Penelope Graham, Iban Shamanism (Canberra: Australian National University, 1987),
47.
Graham, Iban Shamanism, 1 1 .
Graham, Iban Shamanism, 35.
Graham, Iban Shamanism, 37; Derek Freeman, “Shaman and Incubus,”
Psychoanalytic Study of Society 4 ( 1 967): 316.
Graham, Iban Shamanism, 129-30.
Vinson H. Sutlive Jr., The Iban of Sarawak (Long Grove, IL: Waveland, 1988), 103.
Robert Parkin, The Munda of Central India (Delhi: Oxford University Press, 1992),
83.
Parkin, Munda, 205.
Parkin, Munda, 27-28.
Rai Bahadur Sarat Chandra Roy, The Birhors (Ranchi: G.E.L. Mission Press, 1925),
173.
Beryl Bellman, Village of curers and assassins (Approaches to Semiotics 39; Berlin:
de Gruyter, 2012), 40.
William E. Welmers, “Secret Medicines, Magic, and Rites of the Kpelle Tribe in
Liberia,” Southwestern Journal of Anthropology’ 5 ( 1 949): 22 1 .
Bellman, Village, 63.
Bellman, Village, 66.
Winter 2014
48
1 68
Francis La Flesche, Traditions of the Osage (Albuquerque: University of New Mexico
Press, 2010), 1 12.
Alanson Skinner, “Observations of the Ethnography of the Sauk Indians,” Bulletin of
the Public Museum of the City of Milwaukee 5.1-3 (1923-25): 54-55.
Roy, Birhors, 174.
171
Louis F. Burns, Osage Indian Customs and Myths (Tuscaloosa: University of
Alabama Press, 1984), 44.
1
~ Patrick J. Munson, “Contributions to Osage and Lakota Ethnobotany,” Plains
Anthropologist 26 (1981): 233, 238.
Daniel E. Moerman, “Symbols and Selectivity: A Statistical Analysis of Native
American Medical Ethnobotany,” Jozz/vra/ of Ethnopharmacology^ 1 (1979): 111; Truman
Michelson, Contributions to Fox £t/7/7o/og)^-// (Smithsonian Institution Bureau of
American Ethnology Bulletin 95; Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1930),
95.
Barry Craig, “The Masterpieces Exhibition,” in Living Spirits with Fixed Abodes, ed.
B. Craig, M. Busse, and S. Eoe (Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 2010), 125; David
Lipset, Mangrove Man: Dialogics of Culture in the Sepik Fstuaty (Cambridge Studies in
Social and Cultural Anthropology 106; Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997),
135-37.
Craig, “Masterpieces,” 211-12.
Georg Holtker, Myths and Legends from Murik Lakes (French and German
Collections of Papua New Guinea Folklore 2; Port Moresby: Institute of Papua New
Guinea Studies, 1975), 34.
Holtker, Myths, 49.
Beryl L. Bellman, “Masks, Societies, and Secrecy among the Fala Kpelle,”
Fthnologische Zeitschrift 1 (1980): 61.
Samuel Awuah-Nyamekye, “Totemism, Aky’cneboa Plant Ethics,” PAN: Philosophy,
Activism, Nature 9 (2012): 5.
Awuah-Nyamekye, “Totemism,” 5.
W[\c\\q\sox\, Contributions, 145.
Truman Michelson, Notes on the Buffalo-Head Dance of the Thunder Gens of the Fox
Indians (Smithsonian Institution Bureau of American Ethnology Bulletin 87;
Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1928), 1.
As seen in the legends recounted in William Jones, Fox Texts (Publications of the
American Ethnological Society; Leiden: E. J. Brill, 1907), 1.175.
'*■’ Mark R. Harrington, Sacred Bundles of the Sac and Fox Indians (University of
Pennsylvania University Museum Anthropological Publications 4.2; Philadelphia:
University Museum, 1914), 227, 232, 239, pi. 40.
Roy, Birhors, 45.
Washington Academy of Sciences
49
Timothy Insoll and Kuldeep Bhan, “Carnelian Mines in Gujarat,” Antiquity 75 (2001):
495; An De Waele and Ernie Haerinck, “Etched (carnelian) beads from northeast and
southeast Arabian Archaeolog}’ and Epigraphy 17 (2006): 31-32, 38; Ernest
Mackay, “Decorated Carnelian Beads,” Man 33 (1933): 143-46.
Gilmour, Archaeology of Cult, 172.
Gilmour, Archaeology’ of Cult, 172-73.
Joseph Free, “The Fourth Season at Dothan,” Bulletin of the American Schools of
Oriental Research 143 (1956): 15-16.
Romain, Shamans, 161.
Cf. Romain, Shamans, 51.
Cf Flopewell examples; Romain, Shamans, 122.
Romain, S'/7a/;?flr75, 133.
Romain, Shamans, 194.
Romain, Shamans, 89.
Romain, Shamans, 89.
Romain, Shamans, 157.
Avraham Faust, “Mortuary Practices, Society, and Ideology,” Israel Exploration
Journal 5A (2004): 174-75.
Elizabeth Bloch-Smith, “Resurrecting the Iron I Dead,” Israel Exploration Journal 54
(2004): 87,
Papers of John T. Hitchcock, Smithsonian Institution National Anthropological
Archives, box 1 1.
70 1
“ Eric Crubezy, Francois-Xavier Ricaut, et al., “Inhumation and cremation in medieval
Mongolia,” Antiquity’ 80 (2006): 895.
Crubezy et al., “Inhumation,” 896.
Andrzej Rozwadowski, “Centering Historical-archaeological Discourse: The
Prehistory of Central Asian/south Siberian Shamanism,” in Belief in the Past: Theoretical
Approaches to the Archaeology of Religion, ed. D. S. Whitley and K. Hays-Gilpin
(Walnut Creek, CA: Left Coast, 2008), 107; Jean-Paul Roux, La Mort chez les Peuples
Altaiques (Paris: Libraire d’Amerique et d’Orient, 1963), 166-67. Douglas Carruthers,
Unknown Mongolia (1914; repr. Asian Educational Services, 1994), 253.
Friedman, “Amidst Steppe,” 235 n.6.
Bloch-Smith, “Resurrecting,” 80, 82; Miller, Chieftains, 69-73.
Romain, Shamans, 164.
Chester C. McCown, “Tell en-Nasbeh,” PEFQSt 1947:150, fig. 54:47.
McCown, “Tell en-Nasbeh,” 150, fig. 54:47.
Winter 2014
50
Chester C. McCown and Joseph C. Wampler, Tell en-Nasbeh (Berkeley: Palestine
Institute of the Pacific School of Religion, 1947), 1.88-97.
7 I Q ^
The Ojibway used cowry shells in shamanic Midewiwin ceremonies.
Egyptians used real white lotus pods in funerary garlands and temple offerings.
Romain, Shamans, 161.
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Bio
Dr. Robert Miller (Ph.D., University of Michigan, 1998) is an
associate professor of Old Testament at The Catholic University of
America. He is a member of the Washington Philosophical Society and the
Washington Academy of Sciences. His email: MILLERB@cua.edu
Washington Academy of Sciences
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American Society for Metals, Washington Chapter
American Society of Civil Engineers, National Capital Section
American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Washington
Section
American Society of Microbiology, Washington Branch
American Society of Plant Biologists, Mid-Atlantic
Anthropological Society of Washington
ASM International
Association for Women in Science, DC Metropolitan Chapter
Association for Computing Machinery, DC Area Chapter
Association for Science, Technology, and Innovation
Association of Information Technology Professionals
Biological Society of Washington
Botanical Society of Washington
Capital Area Food Protection Association
Chemical Society of Washington
District of Columbia Institute of Chemists
District of Columbia Psychological Association
Eastern Sociological Society
Electrochemical Society, National Capital Section
Entomological Society of Washington
Geological Society of Washington
Historical Society of Washington DC
Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, Potomac Chapter
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Northern
Virginia Section
Paul Arveson
Frank R. Haig, S. J.
Sethanne Howard
Vacant
Lee Benaka
David W. Brandt
Vacant
Charles Martin
Vacant
Stuart Umpleby
Vacant
Vacant
Daniel J. Vavrick
Vacant
Mark Holland
Vacant
Toni Marechaux
Jodi Wesemann
Alan Ford
F. Douglas
Witherspoon
Chuck Lowe
Stephen Gardiner
Chris Puttock
Keith Lempel
Elise Ann Brown
Vacant
Tony Jimenez
Ronald W.
Mandersheid
Vacant
Vacant
Jeffrey B. Plescia
Jurate Landwehr
Vacant
Gerald P. Krueger
Murty Polavarapu
(continued on next page)
Washington Academy of Sciences
Delegates to the Washington Academy of Sciences
Representing Affiliated Scientific Societies
(continued from previous page)
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Washington
Section
Institute of Food Technologies, Washington DC Section
Institute of Industrial Engineers, National Capital Chapter
International Association for Dental Research, American
Section
International Society for the Systems Sciences
International Society of Automation, Baltimore Washington
Section
Instrument Society of America
Marine Technology Society
Maryland Native Plant Society
Mathematical Association of America, Maryland-District of
Columbia-Virginia Section
Medical Society of the District of Columbia
National Capital Area Skeptics
National Capital Astronomers
National Geographic Society
Optical Society of America, National Capital Section
Pest Science Society of America
Philosophical Society of Washington
Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine
Society of American Foresters, National Capital Society
Society of American Military Engineers, Washington DC Post
Society of Manufacturing Engineers, Washington DC Chapter
Society of Mining, Metallurgy, and Exploration, Inc.,
Washington DC Section
Soil and Water Conservation Society, National Capital Chapter
Technology Transfer Society, Washington Area Chapter
Virginia Native Plant Society, Potowmack Chapter
Washington DC Chapter of the Institute for Operations
Research and the Management Sciences (WINFORMS)
Washington Evolutionary Systems Society
Washington History of Science Club
Washington Paint Technology Group
Washington Society of Engineers
Washington Society for the History of Medicine
Washington Statistical Society
World Future Society, National Capital Region Chapter
Richard Hill
Vacant
Neal F. Schmeidler
J. Terrell Hoffeld
Vacant
Vacant
Hank Hegner
Jake Sobin
Vacant
D. S. Joseph
Vacant
Vacant
Jay H. Miller
Vacant
James Cole
Vacant
Eugenie Mielczarek
Vacant
Daina Apple
Vacant
Vacant
E. Lee Bray
Terrell Erickson
Richard Leshuk
Vacant
Russell Wooten
Vacant
Albert G. Gluckman
Vacant
Alvin Reiner
Alain Touwaide
Michael P. Cohen
Jim Honig
Washington Academy of Sciences
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