V\/AS
Volume 96
Number 1
Spring 2010
Journal of the
WASHINGTON
ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Editor’s Comments J. Maffucci i
Author Instructions iii
Affiliated Institutions iv
Science Books & Films, the Review Guide of AAAS. H. Malcomson 1
Where’s My Nobel Prize and Other Public Relations Faux Pas, R. Stombler. 5
From Complexity to Reflexivity: Underlying Logics Used in Science. 5. Umpleby. 15
Minutes, Science is Murder, R. Hietala 27
Capital Science 2010 photos 39
ISSN 0043-0439
Issued Quarterly at Washington DC
Washington Academy of Sciences
Founded in 1898
Board of Managers
Elected Officers
President
Kiki Ikossi
President Elect
Mark Holland
Treasurer
Larry Millstein
Secretary
James Cole
Vice President, Administration
Lisa Frehill
Vice President, Membership
Sethanne Howard
Vice President, Junior Academy
Paul L. Hazan
Vice President, Affiliated Societies
E. Eugene Williams
Members at Large
Denise Ingram
Donna Dean
Frank Haig, S.J.
Alianna Maren
Daryl Chubin
Russell Vane III
Past President: Albert H. Teich
Affiliated Society Delegates:
Shown on back cover
Editor of the Journal
Jacqueline Maffucci
Associate Editor:
Sethanne Howard
The Journal of the Washington Academy of
Sciences
The Journal \s the official organ of the Academy.
It publishes articles on science policy, the history
of science, critical reviews, original science
research, proceedings of scholarly meetings of
its Affiliated Societies, and other items of interest
to its members. It is published quarterly. The last
issue of the year contains a directory of the
current membership of the Academy.
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Journal of the Washington Academy of
Sciences (ISSN 0043-0439)
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Washington Academy of Sciences
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Published by the Washington Academy of
Sciences 202/326-8975
email: was@washacadsci.org
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Editor’s Comments
It is with great excitement that I introduce the Spring 2010 issue of
the Journal of the Washington Academy of Scienees. Not only is it my
first issue as the Editor of the Journal, but also it is a small sampling of
some of the great presentations that were given at the reeent Capitol
Seience 2010 Conferenee. I was thrilled to have the opportunity to
partieipate in this conference. The diversity and quality of the
presentations was astounding. Being new not only to WAS, but also to the
Capitol Region, this conference was an exeellent way to familiarize
myself with some of the great research being eondueted by the WAS
affiliate members. It also provided me with a few ideas for upcoming
issues of the Journal!
This issue includes the minutes to the very successful Science Is
Murder event held in December 2009. This event featured a panel of
distinguished murder mystery authors, all of whom use seience to develop
their plots. The event was well attended and the discussion was very
interesting.
From there, we delve in to CapSci 2010. This issue features a
pictoral overview of some of the events held during this 2-day conferenee.
Consider it a way to set the stage for all those that missed CapSci 2010
(how unfortunate for you!). Our first article, written by AAAS Senior
Program Associate Heather Malcomson, focuses on the history of the
Science Books & Films (SB&F) review journal published by AAAS. This
program uses volunteer scientists and science educators to review science
materials (of all media types and edueational levels) for their accuraey,
presentation, and appeal. These reviews are published in SB&F for all to
read. This is not only a great resource for seience educators, but also a
wonderful opportunity for scientists to volunteer their expertise for a great
cause.
Continuing on the topic of science communieation is Robin
Stombler’s article entitled Where’s My Nobel Prize and Other Public
Relations Faux Pas. Ms Stombler’s presentation at CapSci generated a
very engaging discussion, and this article is sure to get you thinking. It
focuses on the importance of seienee communication at a very basic level.
Ms Stombler reminds us that as scientists, we need to be aware of our use
of language when addressing different audienees, and offers some helpful
adviee as to how to more effeetively eommunieate with the public.
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The final article of this issue changes from science communication
to the world of Cybernetics. Stuart Umpleby offers an example of the
application of this field in From Complexity to Reflexivity: Underlying
Logics Used in Science.
With that, I hope that you enjoy this issue of the Journal. I
encourage all of our readers, and particularly our CapSci participants, to
submit an article in the upcoming months. I look forward to working on
future issues of the Journal.
Sincerely,
Jackie Maffucci
Washington Academy of Sciences
Ill
INSTRUCTIONS TO AUTHORS
1. Manuscripts should be in Word (Office 03/07) and not PDF.
2. They should be 6,000 words or fewer (exceptions may be made by
the Editor). If there are 7 or more graphics, reduce the number of
words.
3. Graphies (photographs, drawings, figures, tables) must be in
greytone only (no color accepted), and be easily resizable by the
editors to fit the Journal’s page size. Do not wrap text around the
graphics.
4. References (and bibliography, if included) may be in the format
generally acceptable for the disciplinary or professional field
represented by the manuscript. They must be accurate, eomplete,
and eonsistent in format throughout the paper.
5. Inelude both an e-mail address and a postal address for the author
(or primary author) including title and institutional affiliation if
any.
6. Papers are peer reviewed.
7. Send Manuseripts by e-mail as an attachment, or on a CD, to
Journal@washaeadsci.org or directly to the editor, Dr. Jaequeline
Maffucci - iamaffucci@gmail.eom. Hard copy cannot be aeeepted.
Manuseripts can be accepted by any of the Board of Discipline
Editors.
Emanuela Appetiti - anthropology at eappetiti@hotmail.com
Elizabeth Corona - systems scienee at elizabethcorona@gmail.eom
Jim Eigenreider - science edueation at iim@deepwater.org
Terrell Erickson - environmental natural sciences at
teiTell.erickson@wdc.nsda.gov
Mark Holland - botany at maholland@salisburv.edu
Kiki Ikossi - engineering at ikossi@ieee.org
Carol Eacampagne - mathematics at clacampagne@earthlink.net
Raj Madhaven - engineering at rai.madhaven@nist.gov
Jean Mielczarek - physics and biology at mielczar@phvsics.gmu.edu
Kent Miller - eomputer scienees at kent.l.miller@alumni.cmu.edu
Robin Stombler - health at rstombler@auburnstrat.com
Alain Touwaide - history of medicine at atouwaide@hotmail.com
Steve Traeton - atmospherie studies at s.traction@hotmail.com
Spring 2010
AFFILIATED INSTITUTIONS
The National Institute For Standards and Technology
Meadowlark Botanical Gardens
The John W. Kluge Center of the Tibrary of Congress
Potomac Overlook Regional Park
Koshland Science Museum
American Registiy of Pathology
Living Oceans Foundation
Washington Academy of Sciences
Science Books & Films, the Review Guide of AAAS
Heather Maleomson
Senior Program Associate at AAAS
Published by the American Association for the Advancement
OF Science (AAAS), Science Books & Films (SB&F) is a global critical
review journal devoted exclusively to print and nonprint materials in all of
the sciences for all age groups (K-college, teaching and general audience).
SB&F reviews trade science books, DVDs, websites and other electronic
resources. Reviews are written by scientists and science educators who
evaluate the materials based on their accuracy, presentation and appeal to
the intended audience. Careful evaluation of these resources is vital for a
better understanding of science by the next generation. SB&F has been the
authoritative guide to science resources for 46 years, bringing librarians
and other educators the expert information they need to make the best
decisions when choosing science materials for their libraries, classrooms,
or institutions.
It’s been over 50 years since the inception of SB&F. The notion
that scientifically accurate and appealing science books are an important
tool for engaging children and youth in science was the cornerstone of a
joint venture between the American Association for the Advancement of
Science (AAAS) and the National Science Foundation (NSF). This idea
eventually became the journal SB&F. In 1955, with support from NSF,
AAAS initiated a “Traveling High School Library.” Selected collections
of 200 books in the sciences and mathematics were loaned to high schools
nationwide on a rotating basis. In 1959, a similar collection of 160 titles
was established for elementary schools with central library collections. In
addition to the traveling collections, NSF support enabled AAAS to
publish and disseminate a series of monographs containing annotated
bibliographies of the selected books plus many more. These book lists
were comprehensive guides to recreational and collateral reading and
basic reference works for junior and senior high school students, college
undergraduates, and non-specialist adults. NSF continued to support the
traveling library programs and annotated book lists through 1 964, at which
time AAAS institutionalized the activity by establishing SB&F as a
quarterly journal.
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Over its 46 year history, the journal has become a valuable
tool of the trade for librarians, media specialists, teachers and other
educators looking for the best science resources for their classrooms and
libraries. Throughout the years SB&F has adapted its format and added
new features, both in print and online, to keep up with the changing role of
libraries and the capabilities of technology. Last year SB&F made its
biggest and boldest move by transitioning to an entirely online journal
(wwvv.sbfonline.com). Our new online home allows us to continue to do
what we do best, provide critical reviews of science books, while using
technology to enhance our content and provide new and exciting features
for our subscribers. Last year the staff of SB&F worked tirelessly to
completely redesign and upgrade SB&F Online. The new online version of
SB&F is now up and running with many more exciting features than the
paper journal ever had to offer. SB&F Online is much more than an online
journal; it is an interactive community for anyone looking for a reliable
source of science book reviews and educational materials related to
science books.
The versatility of an online space grants SB&F the opportunity to
continually create, update, and add features that enhance our user’s
experience with the journal. The new SB&F Online includes many
features, such as:
• A searchable database of science book. DVD, website, and
software reviews from the past 12 years: Users can search the
database by title, author, subject area, audience level, rating and
more.
• Instant access to new reviews: New reviews are added to the
website on a weekly basis. No more waiting for the bi-monthly
print journal to come out to read new reviews.
• Printable monthly issues: Each month we post a printable PDF
issue with all of the latest reviews and a feature article. Many of
our readers still enjoy leafing through the paper copy!
• Access to the current and past SB&F Best Books lists: SB&F has
been creating our renowned Best Books list for over 25 years. The
Best Books list is a comprehensive list of the best science books
reviewed over the previous year. Librarians and other educators
have come to rely on this list when making their purchasing
decisions and weeding their collections. The Best Books list is
released each January.
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• The Editor’s Blog: This blog is place where the editors oi' SB&F
ean post news and information related to science books and science
edueation. The blog is also a place for the editors to interact with
SB&F subscribers. Subseribers and registered users can post
comments on blog entries.
• A new and improved SB&F Prize section: This SB&F Prize pages
contain news, information and features about current and past
winners of the AAAS/Subaru SB&F Prize for Excellenee in
Science Books (see below for more information on the SB&F
Prizes).
• Multimedia features: The AAAS Book Talks section of the website
contains interviews with award-winning ehildren's and young adult
seienee book authors. Funded by AAAS’s William T. Golden
Endowment Fund for Program Innovation, Book Talks is a podcast
featuring the editors of SB&F talking with children's and young
adult science book authors and illustrators about what makes a
good science book for children, what inspires them to write about
science, and what new projects they are working on.
• Feature articles on funding opportunities, science fairs, and much
more.
Another important interrelated program is the AAAS/Subaru
SB&F Prizes for Excellence in Science Books. Each year SB&F, in
collaboration with Subaru, gives out a series of awards for the best seienee
books of the year. Created in 2005, the SB&F Prize celebrates outstanding
science writing and illustration for ehildren and young adults. The prizes
are meant to encourage the writing and publishing of high quality science
books for all age groups. In 2009 these books included the best of
Children’s Science Picture Books, Middle Grades Seienee Books, Hands-
on Science/Activity Books, and Young Adult Seienee Books. Topics
highlighted included a list of 100 steps that ehildren can take to help “save
the planet,” a creative exploration of how the human brain works and
sibling relationships in the animal world. The 2010 SB&F Prizes were
recently handed out at the AAAS Annual Meeting in San Diego. This
year’s winners include Living Sunlight: Flow Plants Bring the Earth to
Life (children’s science pieture book). The Frog Scientist (middle grades
science book). Invisible Kingdom (young adult science book) and Lifetime
Achievement Award recipient, Mr. Robert Gardner. Over the past five
years the SB&F Prizes have honored many authors with Lifetime
Achievement Awards for their distinguishing and lasting eontributions to
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children’s science literature. For a full list of authors and books honored
please visit http://wvvvv.sbfonline.com/Subaru/Paues/PrizesHome.aspx.
Become involved
SB&F relies on scientists and science educators all over the world,
who donate their time and expertise to fill our pages with useful,
worthwhile evaluations of science materials. As an SB&F reviewer you
are able to choose the area you would like to review, along with the type
of materials (books, DVDs, websites and/or software) and the level (K-
college and/or general audience). The time commitment is up to you. We
ask only that you commit to writing at the very least two reviews per
year. If you are interested in hearing more about the benefits and rewards
of becoming a reviewer for SB&F, please email Heather Malcomson at
hmalcoms@aaas.oru.
Washington Academy of Sciences
5
Where’s My Nobel Prize and Other Public Relations Faux
Pas
Robin E. Stombler
Auburn Health Strategies, LLC
Abstract
Intellectual honesty and smarts, enthusiasm, a commitment to pursue an
idea for the long-haul, openness to exploration, and creativity are all
important traits for a good scientist to possess. Translating science from
the laboratory to commerce requires these same elements. Yet,
sometimes scientists stop acting like scientists when they are past the
point of discovery. This paper discusses why many scientific ideas and
exciting research efforts fail to gamer much public attention. It outlines
strategies all scientists may engage in the pursuit of improved public
relations.
Introduction
Take out your laptop, netbook, Blackberry or iPhone. Go ahead.
Now, open Google News, or any other popular news search engine. Read
the first five stories under Science. Here’s what I found on a rainy January
afternoon: Apple and Nokia are in battle over new handsets; NY Times
may charge readers for online access; patches needed to fix Internet
Explorer 6; Wii and PS3 break sales records; cocaine discovery prompts
investigation by NASA; prices drop for Google’s Nexus One. If you scroll
down to the 14^^ story, one learns that the US maintains its lead in science
and technology discoveries, but other countries are gaining.
There is nothing wrong with these headlines. In fact, it’s rather
thrilling to recognize the discoveries that have led to the creation of these
devices (let’s be clear that I’m not referencing the cocaine outlier), but it
begs the question: When it comes to science, is that all there is?
No, of course not. Science is knowledge. Knowledge about plants,
ecosystems, stars, genes, atoms, water, chemicals, blood, rocks, behavior,
lasers, and a million other ideas affecting our world. So why aren’t these
ideas and their related exciting research efforts and ultimate discoveries
making the front page? Better yet, why does science have such difficulty
promoting itself?
Spring 20 1 0
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Sir John Houghton, physicist and 2007 Nobel Prize winner,
summed it up, “Your average seientist is not a good PR person beeause he
wants to get on with his science.”
One of my elients, the chief exeeutive of a company who
developed a product that has helped maintain world peaee, discovered a
new use for his technology. He was adamant initially that his advisors not
speak to a long list of government, academie, and industry experts.
Instead, he merely wanted someone to buy his teehnology beeause it was
surely the only key to solving one of the world’s pressing problems. His
philosophy mirrored Rene Descartes’ “Cogito ergo sum” or “I think,
therefore, I am.” Thinking (or in this case, inventing) it, may make it self-
evident, but it does not make for good publie relations.
When transitioning from seientiflc discovery to promotion,
elementary seientifie principles continue to apply. “Scienee is the belief in
the ignorance of experts,” a quote attributed to the pioneer of quantum
computing, Richard Feynman, applies in publie relations too. To
substantiate your scientific discoveries and observations, coneepts and
their supporting evidence must be presented and challenged. Public
relations assists in this effort to present, build relationships, communicate,
and learn.
Look at the example of fluoridated water. In the 1930s, Dr. H.
Trendley Dean diseovered that fluorine helped prevent dental eavities.'
Today, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lists water
fluoridation as one of the 10 greatest publie health achievements of the
20'*^ century. How did society move from a sole scientific discovery to this
epic health advancement? Dr. Dean analyzed water samples, examined
teeth, and eonducted epidemiological studies to determine if fluoride
safely protected teeth from cavities without further health risks. However,
public relations played a role too.
Scienee had to move from the laboratory to the community. Efforts
to convince colleagues, industry, organizations, and local and state
governments to partieipate in this researeh were initiated. For example, the
American Dental Association (ADA) sponsored a dental survey of
schoolchildren in 1933-1934"; Edward L. Bernays, a pioneer in publie
relations, devised a eampaign to convince the publie of lluoride safety;
and citizens of two targeted towns were studied to determine the risks and
benefits of fluoride in drinking water. By 1945, Grand Rapids, Michigan
became the first eity to adjust the fluoride level of its water supply to 1.0
ppm, thus introducing community water fluoridation. Today, the ADA
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supports “unreservedly” the fluoridation of community water supplies as
“safe, effective and necessary” in preventing tooth decay.'" The
organization also presents a business case that, for most cities, every $1
invested in water fluoridation saves $38 in dental treatment costs. Goals
set by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services through its
Healthy People 2010 aims to increase the percentage of the U.S.
population with access to optimally fluoridated community water systems
from 62 to 75 percent."''
Yet, fluoridated water is not without its critics and skeptics.
Concerns over the relationship between fluoridated water and cancer have
long been expressed. A study by the National Toxicology Program
showed an increased number of osteosarcomas in rats fed high
concentrations of fluoridated water over two years.'' In an oral history
interview, Oscar R. Ewing, Administrator of the Federal Security Agency
under President Truman, explained some of the controversy of
fluoridation, noting that in a speech to the U.S. House of Representatives
in 1952 Congressman A.T. Miller insinuated that Ewing, a former attorney
representing the Aluminum Company of America, might be benefiting
from the sale of fluoride. Ewing noted that flyers were distributed on the
streets of New York crying, “Water fluoridation is the most important
aspect of the cold war that is being waged on US - chemically - from
within, by the Rockefeller-Soviet axis.”''' This was such an effective
counter-public relations campaign that, even today, not all U.S. localities
have access to fluoridated water systems.
Public relations can grasp scientific concepts and utilize them in
ways that further promote ideas and revenues. Research by David Sinclair,
Rafael de Cabo, and associates at Harvard Medical School and the
National Institute on Aging found that resveratrol increases the lifespan of
obese mice. Resveratrol prevented most of the negative effects of a high
caloric diet in mice.''" Resveratrol, discovered as an antioxidant by Dr.
Sinclair, is found in red wine. Although research has not yet established
that this molecule will slow down aging and prevent age-related diseases
in humans, the interest in red wine as a possible solution increased. The
Nielsen Company released data showing that from November 2006, the
publication date of the study, through March 2007, sales growth of red
wine outpaced sales growth of the all wines by 40 percent.''"'
Public relations may fill a void when the lack of knowledge about
scientific processes profoundly impacts public policy. In the 1970s, the
television show, Quincy M.E., introduced audiences to the work of
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forensic science. Each week. Dr. Quincy, played by actor Jack Klugman,
would find forensic evidence that would inform or contradict how people
died. Today, prime time television might be considered a forensic
pathologists’ dream. NCIS, CSI: Crime Scene Investigation, CSI: Miami,
and CSI: New York practically litter the airwaves. This public awareness,
even with the many factual scientific liberties taken with fictional
programming, helps to propel the understanding and value of this area of
science and its implications in natural disasters, the judicial system, and in
war. Not surprisingly, however, studies by N.J. Schweitzer and M.J. Saks
suggest that these television programs may impact inappropriately the
confidence of jurists in real-life trials.'^
In 2009, the National Research Council issued the report.
Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States, and shared the results
with the U.S. Congress. The recommendations to fund and establish “the
scientific foundation of the forensic science disciplines, providing better
education and training, and requiring certification and accreditation will
position the forensic science community to take advantage of current and
future scientific advances” were based on suggestions from a diverse
group of individuals: law enforcement, federal officials, scientists, medical
examiners, professional society executives, standard-setting leaders, and
many others.^
The public relations elements intertwined in these examples
include the importance of message communication, relationship building,
and understanding the ample implications of politics and policy. No matter
if the goal is broad {e.g., promote the importance of science) or more
defined {e.g., find a market for my widget), public relations strategies are
personal. Successful strategies are multi-faceted.
Communication
According to a 2009 poll by the Pew Research Center and the
American Association for the Advancement of Science, scientists are a
well-regarded profession. Compared to other popular professions, 70% of
the public respondents noted that scientists contributed “a lof’ to society,
as opposed to business executives (21%) and lawyers (23%). However, in
terms of scientific achievements, only 17% of the public respondents
considered the United States the “best in the world. U.S. scientists
appear respected, yet the details of their message are not well understood.
Communicating science requires the same accuracy and
intellectual honesty that scientists require in the laboratory, but it must be
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performed in ways that the public will understand. It is helpful to consider
science as a second language. For someone unfamiliar with the “science-
tongue,” it may be more understandable to dissect complex concepts and
translate using layman’s terms.
Oxford University Press posts a list of the 250 most common
words used when writing about scientific subjects and suggests gaining a
familiarity with them in order to comprehend science texts. The following
are a random list of words encountered when discussing various scientific
disciplines: interface; synoptic; kinetic; parallax effect; vulcanize; matrix;
and vector. What do they mean?
Take a look at the word “interface.” According to the Merriam-
Webster dictionary, it is a noun used to describe the “surface forming a
common boundary of two bodies, spaces or phases.” Today, it is
frequently used as a verb to describe a coming together, as in: “our
communication programs will be able to interface with each other.” Jeff
Han, named one of the world’s 100 most influential people by Time
Magazine in 2008, develops multi-touch sensing solutions to enhance the
power of computers. In addition to “awesome” and “incredible,” his work
has been described as “interface-free.” Without a visual presentation or
less-technical language, this concept might be difficult for many people to
comprehend.
Another example is the use of the word “synoptic” when
describing reporting mechanisms. Synoptic generally refers to the broad
view at a particular point in time. Synoptic reporting of the weather might
mean that it will be snowing across the region at a specific date and time.
“Synoptic” is not part of the regular vocabulary for most Americans. The
word “summary” might substitute easily for the less common “synoptic.”
By using more generic vocabulary substitutions, the audience’s interest is
less likely to wane.
Using a technical term to describe the same technical term should
be avoided. Using the above example, describing how data presented in
“synoptic reports” contains “synoptic elements” does not help define the
meaning of “synoptic.” Similarly, explaining that “nanotechnology” is
science measured in nanometers may limit understanding for this
discipline.
As certain innovations become more ubiquitous, there is a
tendency to use proprietary names to define a topic. For example, instead
of asking for a tissue, many people will ask for a Kleenex®, even though
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there is no preference for brand. Similarly, scientists should avoid using
terms like “Photoshop” as a verb to describe how an image is manipulated.
Photoshop*^ is a software package produced by Adobe Systems, Inc.
The improper use of terms may seem harmless, aside from patent
and trademark issues, yet scientists run the risk of diluting the true
meaning of their craft. “Vulcanization” is a chemical process used to add
properties to certain plastic materials, but Star Trek fans might offer a
different definition. Similarly, after a particularly harsh winter in 2010,
many people confuse the snowy weather for climate change. If the spring
brings pleasant temperatures, will concern over climate change dissipate?
Proper communication messages are key.
Relationships
Relationships are an integral part of the public relations for
science. Start with the most basic relationship. Have you described your
research to your family, your children, or your most significant other? Do
they understand your work well enough to be able to describe it accurately
to others? This description should extend beyond the “my mom is a
chemist and works in a lab.” What type of research do you do and what
are the implications for society? Help your relatives assist in becoming
your most outspoken advocates.
Beyond family, there are many audiences where scientists should
build relationships, including: laboratory, community, political, and
business. These contacts require feeding, constant monitoring, and
patience. As opportunities present themselves, introduce these audiences
to your research. For example, instead of introducing yourself as a
cytopathologist, which - as outlined above - requires further definition,
explain that you are a physician researching a vaccine for cervical cancer.
As relationships develop, the venture capitalist sitting next to you at your
child’s baseball game or the banker at the Kiwanis Club where you gave a
speech might be more willing to consider providing you with development
funds when the time comes.
Professional societies are also avenues for expanding your
knowledge and relationship base. Signing up for committees, offering to
present lectures, and submitting abstracts to conferences will benefit you
professionally and introduce you to many potential collaborators, funding
sources, and most of all, fans.
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In March 2010, Michael • Blanpied, PhD, Associate Program
Coordinator for the United States Geological Services Earthquake Hazards
Program, answered questions on-line at Washingtonpost.eom about the
eauses of recent earthquakes and earthquake foreeasting. He provided
easy-to-understand responses to questions posed by individuals from
around the world, including an elementary school class in Reston,
Virginia. Not only did he impart seientifie knowledge, plug his agency’s
website, and raise the presence of geophysics, but he also educated a
classroom filled with potential scientists.^"
Learning how to beeome a reputable souree of information is also
a highly valued relationship skill. Journalists and public policymakers
usually do not have a background in science, nor the time to researeh fully
every topic presented to them. Of the 435 members of the U.S. House of
Representatives, only a handful hold doetorate degrees in a seienee
diseipline, ineluding: Vem Ehlers (nuclear physies). Rush Holt, Jr.
(physics). Bill Foster (physies), John Olver (chemistry), and Bob Filner
(history of science). A few dozen more have a baekground in medicine,
mathematics, or undergraduate science degrees, enough to firmly plant
scientists in the minority of Congressional oceupations.
Legislators and the media value sources that deliver non-biased,
accurate information in an understandable manner. Hone these
relationships, honor their deadlines and processes, and you will be ealled
upon repeatedly to share your knowledge.
Understand the Larger World
We all have suffered embarrassment at some point in our lives
because of misunderstandings. To avoid these mishaps in our professional
lives, it is necessary to develop a broader understanding of the world.
Simply put, learn about your surroundings so that your science message is
eontextual, timely, and accepted.
Rebecca Skloot reminds us that science may have eonsequenees of
whieh we should be aware. In her novel. The Immortal Life of Henrietta
Lacks, she tells the story of an Afriean-Ameriean woman who traveled to
Johns Hopkins Hospital in 1951 to reeeive a diagnosis of an aggressive
form of cer^dcal cancer. A small tissue sample was taken from her without
her understanding or consent. Ms Lacks died within months of her
diagnosis, but those cells lived on and became the first immortal eell line
grown in eulture. Known as HeLa, the eells have been vital in advancing
medicine and other seientifie discoveries. Several Nobel Prizes have been
Spring 2010
12
awarded tor research involving HeLa cells. For decades, the Lacks family
was unaware of Henrietta’s standing in medical history and today still
struggles with the meaning of it all.^"‘ In 2010, Popular Science named
Henrietta Lacks the “Most Important Woman in Medical History, yet
bioethical issues are raised as HeLa cells were obtained without consent
and the Lacks family did not profit from the multi-billion dollar industry
that her cell line produced. In addition to educating others about HeLa
cells, the Skloot novel will bring these issues into the public forum.
In 1999, the Institute of Medicine released its report. To Err is
Human: Building a Safer Health System. The report, the first in a series on
quality-of-care concerns, called for a “comprehensive approach to
improving patient safety.” To prove its case, the report extrapolated data
to discover the following:
When extrapolated to the over 33.6 million admissions to U.S.
hospitals in 1997, the results of the study in Colorado and Utah
imply that at least 44,000 Americans die each year as a result
of medical errors. The results of the New York study suggest
the number may be as high as 98,000.
By the time the report was made available, media headlines
screamed that medical errors kill 100,000 Americans every year. While
there was a desire among many in the medical community to explain these
data correctly, it was more important to recognize the broader issue of
improving patient safety. One death from a preventable medical error is
one too many. A focus on correcting the safety system should be
paramount.
Scientists should know how to frame their messages within the
context of the larger world. This will help make scientific discoveries and
research more relevant to the lay audience. By developing an
understanding of society, building relationships, and communicating
clearly, scientists and the information they impart will be embraced by the
public.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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References
‘ Focus: The Fluoride Story. National Institutes of Health. Available at
http://histoi'\ .nih.uov/museum/ediication fluoride.htinl. Accessed February 28, 2010
"Ibid.
American Dental Association Positions and Statements. American Dental Association
Supports Fluoridation. 2002
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Healthy People 2010. U.S.
Government Printing Office, Volume II, second edition. 2000
'' Bucher JR, Hejmancik MR, et al. Results and conclusions of the National Toxicology
Program’s Rodent Carcinogenicity Studies with Sodium Fluoride. International
Journal of Cancer 1991; 48(5): 733-737
''' Oral History Interview with Oscar R. Ewing. Chapel Hill, North Carolina. May 1,
1969. Harry S. Truman Library & Museum. Available at
www.trumanlibrarv.org/oralhist/ewing3.htm. Accessed February 28, 2010
Baur, JA, Pearson KJ, et al. Resveratrol Improves Health and Survival of Mice on a
High-Calorie Diet. Aarwre November 16, 2006; 444: 337-342
The Nielsen Company. Sales of Red Wine Surge on Reports of Health Benefits. April
2, 2007
Schweitzer NJ, Saks MJ. The CSI Effect: Popular Eiction About Forensic Science
Affects Public Expectations about Real Forensic Science. Jurimetrics 2007;4:357
National Research Council. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States. 2009:
S-15
^ American Association for the Advancement of Science. Public Praises Science;
Scientists Fault Public, Media. Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.
July 9, 2009
Seismic Science: Is Number of Earthquakes on the Rise? On-line chat with Michael
Blanpied. www.washingtonpost.com, March 9, 2010
Skloot R. The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks. In-person author lecture. Washington,
DC. February 21, 2010
Five Reasons Henrietta Lacks in the Most Important Woman in Medical History.
Popular Science, www.popsci.com. Posted February 5, 2010
Kohn L, Corrigan J, Donaldson M, editors. To Err is Human: Building a Safer Health
System. Institute of Medicine. 1999:1
Spring 2010
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Washington Academy of Sciences
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From Complexity to Reflexivity: Underlying Logics Used in
Science ^
Stuart Umpleby
The George Washington University
Abstract
This paper describes the basic features of the theories of complexity and
reflexivity, their early history, their evolution, and reactions to date. Although
complexity is a major change from previous modeling methods, it does not
violate any of the informal fallacies or assumptions underlying the philosophy of
science. Reflexivity does. Accepting reflexivity as a legitimate movement in
science will require an expansion of the conception of science which still
prevails in most fields. A shift from Science One to Science Two is now being
discussed. The paper explains what is being proposed.
Four Current Models in Science
In recent years complexity theory has captured the attention of
many people interested in transdisciplinary research. The exeitement
surrounding the work at the Santa Fe Institute is an example [Waldrop,
1992]. Current research (which can be traeed baek to the 1960’s) on
complexity can be thought of as the working out of ideas related to self-
organizing systems. Much more advanced technieal means are now
available, and the great accomplishment of the recent research has been
the involvement of people from a wide range of diseiplines in using
modeling methods, such as cellular automata and genetic algorithms,
which are a significant departure from previous methods.
Research in reflexivity is less well known. Its origins can be traced
back at least to 1974. Several reflexive theories have been proposed, for
example by Argyris and Schon, von Foerster, Tefebvre, and Soros. The
literatures in second order cybernetics and constructivism are very close to
reflexivity, but the term “reflexivity” may appeal to a wider audience.
One way to understand how the system sciences are developing is to
look at the creation of new methods for conducting inquiry. Presently four
models are being used in science.
' Paper presented at the European Meeting on Cybernetics and Systems Research held in
Vienna, Austria, April 6-9, 2010. Published in Cybernetics and Systems Research 2010.
Edited by R. Trappl. the Austrian Society for Cybernetics Studies, Vienna
Spring 2010
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Linear Causality
Linear causality is the way most science has been done and is still
being done. It is the way most dissertations are written. It is supported by
many statistical techniques, including multiple regression. It has numerous
advantages. Hypotheses can be falsified. Propositions can be assigned a
level of statistical significance. The objective is to create descriptions
which correspond to observations.
Circular Causality
Circular causality is essential to any regulatory process - a thermostat,
an automated assembly line, driving a car, or managing an organization.
Circular causal processes can be modeled with causal influence diagrams
and system dynamics models. Often a psychological variable is involved,
e.g., perception of..., or desire for...
Complexity Theory
Complexity theory is primarily a method of computer simulation. It is
based on cellular automata and genetic algorithms. The “game of life” is a
simple example. The basic idea is very general and encompasses
competition among species or corporations, also conjectures and
refutations in philosophy. There are two processes involved - the creation
of new variety and selection of appropriate variety. The combination of
these processes explains emergence of new order.
Reflexivity Theory
Reflexivity theory requires operations on two levels - observing and
participating. Reflexivity involves self-reference, hence paradox, hence
inconsistency. Reflexivity violates three informal fallacies - circular
arguments, the ad hominem fallacy, and the fallacy of accent (referring to
two levels of analysis at one time).
A Further Explanation of Complexity Theory
What is currently called complexity theory can be seen as an
extension of the work on self-organizing systems around 1960 [Ashby,
1962; von Foerster, 1962|. There are two processes - differentiation or the
creation of new variety and selection of appropriate variety. The first
occurs within an organism or organization; the second occurs in the
environment.
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The basic structure of thinking underlying sell-organization is not
new. Adam Smith [1776j used the idea in The Wealth of Nations when he
described the process of innovation and competition among firms or
nations. Charles Darwin [1859] used the idea when describing genetic
mutation and selection by the environment. Karl Popper [1962] used the
idea in philosophy when he described conjectures and refutations as the
means whereby science progresses.
Some other versions of the idea are B.F. Skinner’s [1938] concept of
operant conditioning in that behaviors are reinforced or not by the
environment of an organism, thus altering their frequency. Donald T.
Campbell [1969] in a famous article, Reforms as Experiments, used the
idea when suggesting a strategy of political and social development by
inventing and passing social reforms and then observing whether they
produce the desired results.
The concept of self-organization emerged in the field of cybernetics in
the late 1950s. The question then was, as phrased by Ashby [1952], “Can a
mechanical chess-player outplay its designer?” Or, stated differently,
should an artificial intelligence device be told how to operate or should it
learn on its own? Learning on its own was called “self-organization.”
Engineers chose to design equipment and created the field of artificial
intelligence. Cyberneticians chose to study learning and cognition.
Three conferences on self-organization were held in the period 1960
to 1962 [Yovits, Jacobi, and Goldstein, 1962]. The original conception
was that a self-organizing system interacted with its environment. Von
Foerster [1962] opposed this conception, saying that such a system would
be organized by its environment, not by itself He described three thought
experiments to explain his conception of “order from noise.” The thought
experiments, about magnetic cubes in a box, show that as a system goes
toward its equilibria! states, it can produce new combinations of elements.
Some of the combinations are interesting. Some are not. For example,
some new companies succeed; others fail.
The box with the magnetic cubes is open to energy. Shaking the box
provides energy. The box is also closed to information. That is, during
each experiment the interaction rules among the cubes do not change. For
the first two experiments the results are not surprising and are not
interesting. In the third experiment new “order” emerges. The idea that life
exists at the “edge of chaos” is similar to von Foerster’s three thought
experiments concerning magnetic cubes. Furthermore, von Foerster
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suggested that “redundancy” in Shannon’s [1949] information theory
could be used to measure amount of organization.
At about the same time Ross Ashby wrote an article Principles of the
Self Organizing System. In this article Ashby [1962] noted, “any isolated,
determinate, dynamic system obeying unchanging laws will develop
organisms that are adapted to their environments.” In Ashby’s conception,
organisms and their environments, taken together, constitute the self-
organizing system. Imagine a system composed of states. Some states are
stable. Some are not. The system will tend to move toward the stable
equilibria! states. As it does so, it selects, thereby organizing itself. These
selections constitute self-organization. Hence, every system as it goes
toward equilibrium organizes itself.
As an example of self-organization Ashby described a thought
experiment. Imagine that the memory locations in a computer are filled
with the single digit numbers 0 to 9. Take any two numbers at random.
Multiply them, replace the first number with the right hand digit of the
product. Return the second number to its original position. Perform this
operation repeatedly. As the interaction rule operates, the evens drive out
the odds. An even times an even gives an even; an even times an odd gives
an even; and an odd times an odd gives an odd. Furthermore, the zeros
drive out their fellow evens. If one applies Shannon’s redundancy measure
to the numbers at each point in time, redundancy increases from zero to
one. As the system goes to equilibrium, it selects, thereby organizing
itself
The Use of the Coneept of Self-Organization in Management
The principle of self-organization provides a general design rule - in
order to change any system, expose it to an environment such that the
interaction between the system and its environment moves the system in
the desired direction. This conception can explain chemical processes such
as making steel from iron ore and coke, educating a child by sending it to
school, a manager improving performance by providing incentives, or the
government regulating the behavior of businesses.
Ashby’s conception of self-organization, that organisms and
environments together constitute a self-organizing system, is a very
general theory. It encompasses Darwin’s theory of natural selection and
learning theory. It emphasizes the selection process rather than the
generation of new variety. Von Foerster’s thought experiment explains
Washington Academy of Sciences
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“emergence” because selection at a lower level can lead to new variety at
a higher level. The von Foerster and Ashby thought experiments illustrate
how emergence of something new and the tendency toward greater
entropy occur simultaneously. Ashby’s notion of self-organization
requires a new conception of a system, one that is open to energy but
closed to information.
This idea is different from earlier conceptions of open and closed
systems. Often “open” means receptive to new information. “Closed” can
mean not open to new information; rigid, unchanging, dogmatic. In
physics, entropy increases in thermodynamically closed systems. In
biology, living systems are open to matter/energy and information [Miller,
1978]. In management, there was a change from closed conceptions
(focusing on processes within a firm) to open conceptions after World
War II. Companies were seen as being influenced by government
regulation, the civil rights movement, the women’s movement, etc.
The concept of self-organization can be used to understand and to
design incentive systems, advertising campaigns, and government
regulation of business. These are just a few examples of how the concept
of self-organization is used every day in business, though the idea is rarely
named.
Background on Reflexivity Theory
There are two possible conceptions of observation. In the first an
observer creates a mental model of some object or process that is
observed. In the second an observer creates a mental model of himself
observing an object or process (See Figure 1). So far science has chosen
the first conception. In classical science the objective was to remove the
observer from the domain of observation. This was done in an effort to
create objective, unbiased observations. Also, including the observer in the
domain of observation is an example of self-reference. Self-reference
leads to paradox, which is a form of inconsistency. Hence, the second
conception of observation leads to ambiguity and uncertainty. However,
the second conception is a better description of how a social system
works.
Spring 2010
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Figure 1. Not including and including the observer in what is observed
People DO reflect on themselves and their interests as well as on what
they observe, and they are aware that other people do the same. Indeed a
social system seems to contain only reflexive systems (See Figure 2).
Figure 2. A social system consists of observing and participating elements
The irony is that even though people who live in social systems are
very aware of rellexivity (though not the term), the classical conception of
science has persuaded social scientists not to pay attention to reflexive
phenomena. In their public writings for a general audience social scientists
regularly refer to their own thoughts, beliefs, and values and those of,
others, but in their scientific writings social scientists search for linear
causal relationships among only a few variables.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Fortunately the subjeet of retlexivity has not been negleeted by
seientists entirely. At least four seientists have made important
contributions. In a presentation in 1974 Heinz von Foerster argued for
including the observer in the domain of science. In 1982 Vladimir
Lefebvre created a theory of two systems of ethical cognition and
described the choice between them as a process of reflexive control. In
1983 Donald Schon described the activity of management as reflective
practice. In 1987 George Soros presented a well-developed theory
claiming that individuals, as actors in social systems, engage in both
observation and participation.
For von Foerster the observer should be included within the domain of
science: a theory of biology should be able to explain the existence of
theories of biology; “reality” should be seen as a personal construct; and
individuals bear ethical responsibility not only for their actions but also for
the world as they perceive it, because choices are involved.
For Lefebvre there are two systems of ethical cognition; people are
“imprinted” with one or the other ethical system at an early age; one’s first
response is always to act in accord with the imprinted ethical system;
however, one can learn the other ethical system and act in accord with it,
when one realizes that the imprinted system is not working. Lefebvre ’s
theory was used at the highest levels in both the U.S. and the U.S.S.R.
during the collapse of the U.S.S.R. in order to prevent misunderstandings.
Lefebvre ’s theory was NOT used during the break-up of the former
Yugoslavia. People in Sarajevo said in 2004 that Lefebvre’s theory
explained both why the war happened and why conflict remained after the
war. Lefebvre’s theory can be used in everyday life, not just in strategic
studies. Beginning at least by 2000 Lefebvre’s conception of reflexive
control was actively being used in education and psychotherapy in Russia.
Soros’ theory is compatible with second order cybernetics. Soros
uses little of the language of cybernetics. But Soros’ theory provides a link
between second order cybernetics and economics, finance, and political
science. Soros’ theory is becoming known in the systems and cybernetics
community [Umpleby, 2007]. It is attracting more attention from
economists and finance professors, due to the recent financial crisis. Soros
has a participatory, not a purely descriptive, theory of social systems.
Whereas social scientists often avoid the philosophy of science, because
they find it inconvenient for their theorizing, Soros is careful to describe
the relationship of his theories to the philosophy of science. Specifically,
he rejects Popper’s conception of “the unity of method,” the idea that all
Spring 2010
22
disciplines, including the social sciences, should use the same methods of
inquiry as the natural sciences [Popper, 1961]. Soros says that in social
systems there are two processes - observation and participation. The
natural sciences require only observation.
Which Models are Acceptable?
Returning to the four models described at the beginning of this paper
— linear causality, circular causality, complexity and reflexivity - we can
now ask which models are considered acceptable by the contemporary
academic community. Linear causality, the first model, is the dominant
conception of science. It is what doctoral students are taught to use when
writing dissertations. Circular causality, the second model, was used in
first order cybernetics, but it involves circularity, which some people
interpret as fallacious reasoning. Complexity, the third model, includes
Stephen Wolfram’s [2002] “new kind of science” and the idea of self-
organizing systems. Complexity theory uses a new kind of mathematics,
but does not violate any informal fallacies. It is easily recognized as
“science” by people trained in the physical sciences. Reflexivity, the
fourth model, is very close to second order cybernetics.
Models 1 and 3 - linear causality and complexity theory - are
acceptable. No informal fallacies are violated. Model 2 - circular causality
- is suspect. It involves circular reasoning but has proven to be useful.
Model 4 - reflexivity - violates three informal fallacies, so is highly
suspect. Scientists shun it. They do not take it seriously. Indeed physical
scientists seem to have a visceral reaction against it. But the informal
fallacies are just “rules of thumb.”
Scientists, particularly social scientists, need to ask themselves a
question. Should traditions concerning the form of arguments limit the
scope of science? Or, should the subject matter of science be guided by
curiosity and the desire to construct explanations of phenomena?
Cyberneticians have chosen to study certain phenomena, even if they need
to use unconventional ideas and methods.
The 2008 financial crisis has provided ample evidence that change is
needed in our thinking about social systems. But many economists say that
no change in theory is needed. Viewed from the perspective of reflexivity
theory, economists and other social scientists need to accept the
uncertainty that accompanies violating the informal fallacies. Social
scientists need to expand the philosophy of science by including the
Washington Academy of Sciences
23
observer in the domain of seienee. Eeonomists need a model of economic
systems which allows participants to be observers and observers to be
participants. This is a large step beyond behavioral economics.
F^racticing managers and social scientists will readily agree that
human beings are both observers and participants in social systems.
Indeed, they say this idea is “not new.” But this perspective is not
permitted by the classical conception of science. The conception of
science needs to be expanded in order fully to encompass social systems.
The Relevance of Reflexivity Theory to Management
Idow is reflexivity related to management? How would thinking in
terms of reflexivity theory change the way research on management is
done? Reflexivity claims that the observer should be included in the
domain of observations. The classical philosophy of science claims that
the characteristics of the observer should not enter into descriptions.
Influenced by the classical philosophy of science, management researchers
find data, analyze it, publish papers, and hope that someone will use the
new knowledge.
According to reflexivity theory, social science should be conducted in
such a way that practitioners are researchers and researchers are
practitioners [Mitroff and Blankenship, 1973]. If influenced by reflexivity
theory, management research would not stop with the generation of a new
idea. It would seek to implement the new ideas and then examine the
changes that occur as a result. This is an expanded view of science.
Whereas Science One meant studying a system and making
recommendations (see Figure 3), Science Two means studying a system,
formulating ideas, seeking support for the ideas from others, implementing
the ideas, analyzing the results of the ideas, and formulating new ideas
[Umpleby, 2002]. Of course, both managers and social science researchers
do all four steps, at least when they are concerned about having an effect
on society.
But, previously, part of the process was not considered science.
Hence, Science Two is an expansion of classical science (z.e., Science
One) when one includes the observer in the domain of observation. This
view of management research can be expected to reduce the criticism that
much management research is not relevant for managers.
Spring 2010
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Figure 3. Reflexivity theory operates at two levels
Conclusion
No doubt both complexity theory and reflexivity theory will continue
to be developed by their respeetive researeh communities. Complexity
theory has advantages in that its use of information technology will attract
funding. It includes a new set of simulation tools, whose utility in various
fields will be explored. Also, complexity theory is compatible with the
classical philosophy of science, so no major rethinking of the philosophy
of science is required to adopt it.
In eontrast reflexivity theory faces a number of obstacles. Reflexivity
theory so far makes little use of computers so will receive less funding.
However, system dynamics models can be used to illustrate reflexive
processes. The principle obstacle to the widespread acceptance of
reflexivity theory is the need to reconsider the philosophy of science and
to aecept a higher level of uncertainty in scientific theorizing. The lack of
a disciplinary base in universities to train future practitioners in reflexivity
theory is also an obstacle. However, the fmaneial crisis and climate
change {e.g., the effect of human beings on the environment and the
debate over whether there is an effect) illustrate the need for reflexivity
theory. And the general progress of the soeial sciences provides a
foundation for eventual acceptance.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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References
[Ashby, 1952] W. Ross Ashby. “Can a Mechanical Chess Player Outplay its Designer?”
The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, Vol. 3, No. 9, May 1952, pp. 44-
57.
[Ashby, 1962] W. Ross Ashby. “Principles of the Self-Organizing System.” In Von
Foerster and Zopf, editors. Principles of Self-Organization. New York: Pergammon,
1962.
[Campbell, 1969] Donald T. Campbell. “Reforms as Experiments.” Reprinted in
Methodology and Epistemology for Social Science: Selected Papers by Donald T.
Campbell, edited by E. Sam Overman. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988.
[Darwin, 1859] Charles Darwin. On the Origin of Species. New York: P. F. Collier,
cl909.
[Eefebvre, 1982] Vladimir Eefebvre. Algebra of Conscience: A Comparative Analysis of
Western and Soviet Ethical Systems. New York: Reidel, 1982.
[Miller, 1978] James G. Miller. Living Systems. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1978.
[Mitroff and Blankenship, 1973] Ian Mitroff and Vaughn Blankenship. “On the
Methodology of the Holistic Experiment: An Approach to the Conceptualization of
Large-Scale Social Experiments.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change,
Volume 4, Issue 4, April 1973, Pages 339-353.
[Popper, 1961] Karl Popper. The Poverty of Historicism. New York: Harper & Row,
cl961.
[Popper, 1962] Karl Popper. Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific
Knowledge. New York: Basic Books, cl 962.
[Schon, 1983] Donald A. Schon. The Reflective Practitioner: How Professionals Think in
Action. New York: Basic Books, 1983.
[Shannon and Weaver, 1949] Claude Shannon and Warren Weaver. The Mathematical
Theory of Communication. Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1949.
[Skinner, 1938] B.F. Skinner. The Behavior of Organisms: An Experimental Analysis.
New York, London, D. Appleton-Century, 1938.
[Smith, 1776] Adam Smith. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of
Nations. Edited by Arthur Hugh Jenkins. New York: R.R. Smith, 1948.
[Soros, 1987] George Soros. The Alchemy of Finance: Reading the Mind of the Market.
Chichester: Wiley, 1987.
[Umpleby, 2002] Stuart Umpleby. “Should Knowledge of Management be Organized as
Theories or as Methods?” in Robert Trappl, editor. Cybernetics and Systems ’02,
Austrian Society for Cybernetic Studies, Vienna, Austria.
[Umpleby, 2007] Stuart Umpleby. “Reflexivity in Social Systems: The Theories of
George Soros,” Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 24, 515-522, 2007.
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[von Foerster, 1962] Heinz von Foerster. “Self-Organizing Systems and their
Environments.” In Yovits and Cameron, editors. Self-Organization. Pergammon
Press, 1962.
[von Foerster, 1974] Heinz Von Foerster, editor. Cybernetics of Cybernetic. Minneapolis,
MN: Future Systems, 1974.
[Waldrop, 1992] Mitchell Waldrop. Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of
Order and Chaos. New York: Touchstone, 1992.
[Wolfram, 2002] Stephen Wolfram. A New Kind of Science. Champaign, IL: Wolfram
Media, 2002.
[Yovits, Jacobi and Goldstein, 1962] Marshall Yovits, George Jacobi and Gordon
Goldstein, editors. Self-Organizing Systems 1962. Washington, DC; Spartan
Books, 1962.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Science is Murder
Washington Academy of Sciences
December 17, 2009
Minutes
[Ron Hietala, the Recording Secretary for the Philosophical Society of
Washington (PhilSoc), graciously agreed to take the ‘"minutes” of the Academy’s
Science is Murder event. You can find PhilSoc at www.philsoc.oriz/: check out
their Lecture series, where you can listen to Ron work his magic.]
Peg Kay, Executive Director of the Washington Academy of Sciences,
welcomed the participants to the Program, "Science is Murder," at 7:10PM
December 17, 2009. She:
- invited people to apply to join the Academy,
- offered copies of the Academy Journal to participants and the
audience, and
- announced the Biennial Capital Science Conference, the premier
conference of its kind in the Washington area, where about 20 of
the Academy's 60+ affiliates give presentations and strut their stuff.
This year, the Academy will be joined by PBS, who will give a
program on "Growing up with Science at PBS." More information
is available at wwvv.washaeadsci.org .
Ms Kay introduced the following persons [some of them dignitaries, some
of them unpaid volunteers; your recording secretary is too polite to say
which]:
- Dr. Kiki Ikossi, President, Washington Academy of Sciences
- Dr. Mark Holland, President-elect of the Academy
- Dr. Ron Hietala, Recording Secretary
- Kathy Harig, Owner of Mystery Loves Company Bookstore,
Oxford, Maryland. John French, who was to be the moderator, was
moved to the panel so he could talk about his book, [laughter] Ms
Harig owns the oniy store speciaiizing in mystery from New York
to Florida. She wrote Libraries, the Military and Civilian Life. She
has a radio show and writes a monthly newsletter. More
information is available at http://wwvv.mvstervlovescompanv.com/
Ms Harig thanked Ms. Kay for originating the idea and hosting the
event. She noted that the Philadelphia Academy of Sciences is
doing a copycat event in January. She introduced the panelists:
- Donna Andrews, author of two award-winning series of books.
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featuring Turing Hopper and Meg Lanslow.
- John French, supervisor of the Baltimore Police Department CSI
unit. He writes crime and mystery fiction and books on crime
scene investigation for specialists. He also recently produced a set
of books for children on crime scene investigation.
— Lawrence Goldstone, author, with wife, Nancy, of The Friar and
the Cipher, Out of the Flames, and four books about their passion,
book collecting. Tonight he will be discussing The Anatomy of
Deception.
— Katherine Neville, author of four best-selling works of fiction. The
Fire, The Eight, The Magic Circle, and A Calculated Risk. Ms.
Neville was a vice-president of the World Bank, installed computer
systems, and worked in the energy field.
The Q & A session then began:
Ms Harig: When writing about science for the general public, how much
detail is too much?
Mr. French: 1 don't worry too much about it. 1 want to get it right. 1 want to
entertain. 1 don't want to teach. 1 give the reader some credit. [I assume
they] know what DNA is, what fingerprints are, what CSI means. If
something comes up that they might not understand, I have my character,
a crime scene investigator, explain it, for example, to a police officer. The
police do not necessarily know how you would use molybdenum disulfide
on a crime scene. As a reader of crime fiction, I want to be entertained; I
don't want to feel like I am reading a textbook.
Mr. Goldstone: I've done a lot of nonfiction. My agent told me when I was
starting out, readers like to learn. You don't want to overwhelm. I write
historical stuff For me, it is teaching about a period, it's being evocative,
it's leading the reader to a certain place. If it weighs a ton, it won't work
for anybody. It's using detail, it's the trail of bread crumbs, part of it is plot,
part of it is character, part of it is setting, part of it is the detail that you put
in about science or whatever is the setting of the book.
Ms Andrews: When I began my series about Turing Hopper, it arose out of
my realization that computers permeate our lives, but many people don't
know anything about them, actually fear them. Turing has one
characteristic like Nero Wolfe, which 1 still reread. Wolfe never, almost
never, left the brownstone. Archie Goodwin brings back the clues. I
looked for something that has tendrils that address the intersection of
computers with our daily lives, because if it doesn't have a cyber aspect.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Turing cannot address it. I hit upon ideas like an on-line role playing
game. Another book involves credit eard fraud; another, a spammer. But 1
don't get very specific about computer seience because that changes so fast
that the details would be out of date by the time they are published. 1 have
a group of techies who read for me to see that things are accurate. For
level, I use my mother, who is 87. 1 write it so she can understand it.
Katherine Neville: Does everybody know who Turing and Hopper are?
Ms Andrews: Alan Turing, the artificial intelligence theorist and
cryptographer, and Grace Hopper, the Navy computer [pioneer].
Ms Neville: I always ask that, because when I was in the computer
business, that was my code name, Grace Hopper.
About question of detail, we have a motto in the author biz, "When in
doubt, leave it out." If you don't need information to advance the plot or
develop a character, it does not belong in the book. However, having said
that, I feel that nothing is excess for me. I use no forensics, no courtrooms,
nothing like an autopsy, not even a fingerprint. I use historical characters
and events. I use real seientists who were dealing with such things as the
OPEC embargo and alchemy. I love the part where seienee is born in
someone's minds. I use direet quotes, for example from John Maynard
Keynes, who went around and bought up Sir Isaae Newton's papers after
Cambridge University had gotten rid of them because of their
embarrassment that Newton had spent 85% of his time on alchemy and
other pursuits, like measuring King Solomon's temple. Keynes presented
the papers to Cambridge in a formal ceremony, so they couldn't give them
away again. In that ceremony, he gave a touehing speech in which he
quoted Newton, saying he thought God had left clues scattered around the
universe for the scientific mind to pick up. It was like a giant puzzle.
That's the kind of thing I like to communicate. I put a little scientific detail
in to bring their character alive, but I always take it right out of their own
notes and papers and the like. Nothing in excess, but if it helps develop the
characters, it works.
Ms Harig: Lawrenee, you have an interesting take on a very important
topic. Tell us about it. Your young medical student comes to Philadelphia
and finds the body of a woman. There is doubt about whether she was
murdered or not. Your tale takes readers through really interesting places
in Philadelphia. Tell us how you came across the story, why you chose it,
and were there things that surprised you?
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Mr. Goldstone: How I came across it was kind of interesting. My wife,
Nancy, and I had done three funny memoirs on people who collect old
books. Our agent suggested we do a “single subject.” We'd seen a movie
called The Red Violin about a violin that was passed down through history.
The owners were really interesting. We said, “Let's find a book that's been
passed down through history.” We called a lot of book dealers that we
know, and nobody knew of the book we wanted. Finally, a librarian,
Miriam Mandelbaum, in the New York Library rare book room said, well,
1 don't really know a book like that, but [she] suggested a book written by
Michael Servitus, who was burned at the stake in 1553 with the last copy
of his book chained to his leg. After a fast drive into New York, she
showed us the story. That led to a library at Yale, where we found material
from the library of William Osier. We got fascinated with Osier, who was
one of the great physicians at the turn of the century (1900). I had a deeply
disappointing result of the publication of a book on constitutional history,
and Nancy suggested I write a historical mystery using Osier. Back in that
library at Yale, we found material on Osier and William Stewart Halstead,
one of the founders of Johns Hopkins and probably the greatest surgeon in
American history. Both Osier and Halstead are characters in Anatomy of
Deception, and both are drawn very close to the originals, although they
don't behave just as Osier and Halstead did.
Ms Harig: Another surprise for me in your writing was that, at one time,
autopsies were extremely rare?
Mr. Goldstone: Autopsies were done, but they had to be authorized, and
they rarely were in the 1800's. When they were done, there was public
outrage. In the second century, in Rome, Galen wrote a book on anatomy,
and it was based mostly on monkeys, goats, dogs, and the like. People
believed that if you opened the bodies, the spirits would come out. In
1 889, we had not progressed far. The autopsy in Anatomy of Deception
was taken right from Osier's notes. The Medical Historical Library at Yale
has an incredible collection of material, and I just took one of Osier's
autopsies and put it right in the book.
Between 1882 and 1900, [in that short time] autopsy changed from
something considered socially very unpleasant to a very ordinary part of
forensics.
Ms Harig: John, some of your writings involve a character named Mathew
Grace. He is a very interesting character. He goes from CSI to ex-CSI, to
PI, and back to CSI.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Mr. French: Mathew Grace got his start as a private eye. Me initially
appeared in a small magazine called Hard Boiled^ he was an ex-CSI who
solved a crime as a private eye. When I came up with an idea for a police
procedural story, I decided to use Mathew Grace, and I placed this new
story before the stories that had already been published, so he could still
be a CSI.
In Past Sins, Mathew Grace was like Watson. Unlike what you see on
television, crime lab technicians do not solve crimes. They analyze
evidence. Police detectives put all the evidence together, solve the crimes,
and go out and make the arrests. So Mathew Grace serves as the person
who tells the story. He talks to the detectives and, in the end, he goes into
a room where the case is presented. As the story goes on, he gets a little
too clever, too cocky, and has to leave the department. He becomes a
private eye. Even there, his point of view does not reflect the experience
of a police detective, because he never was one, so he solves them as a
private party.
One of Kathy's questions to me earlier was do you get locked room
mysteries on crime scenes. You do, though not so much in murders. Very
little from murders gets translated into fiction. In Baltimore, crime scene
investigators respond to burglaries, and more often we deal with a locked
house than a locked room. I've had cases where people “slipped” the lock,
where people reached through the mail slot. I've had cases in apartments
where people came through the crawl space, into the closet, went through
some shoe boxes, and left by the front door. In one particularly interesting
one, it appeared that the criminal apparently went into a locked apartment,
took out the vanity mirror, pushed the vanity mirror out of the second
apartment, and went through. It would probably not have been solved, but
we found the fingerprints of the owner of the first apartment on the back
of the vanity mirror of the second apartment. The owner had burglarized
his next door neighbor.
Ms Harig: Katherine, in your latest work, The Fire, you go through
various symbolisms about the fire. Tell us how you came up with that as
the image for the sequel to The Eight.
Ms Neville: First, The Eight was a story about a fabulous gold and silver
chess set that belonged to Charlemagne. Dug up in the French Revolution,
it had mysterious power. It was scattered all over the world to prevent
people from gaining those powers. I had forgotten, actually, that it had
been revealed at the end of The Eight that it had been created by a real
scientist, A1 Jabir ibn Hayan, the father of Islamic alchemy. One of Jabir's
Spring 2010
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books, The Books of the Balance, I have in my library. Every single thing
in alchemieal scienee has to do with fire. They used fire to transmute
ehemicals. In The Fire, each thing that happens begins with one of the
stages of alchemy. Coincidentally, halfway through writing the book, I
realized the modern part of the book is set in April, 2003. It was set then
because that was the birthday of the heroine's mother in the first book, and
it happens to be the exact time the U.S. military entered Baghdad.
Ms Harig: We can't leave this subject without hearing about the signing
story.
Ms Neville: Ah, yes, the signing story. Well, in the first book, the heroine,
as a child was about to be the youngest grandmaster in history. When she
was about 20, she could not play chess any more, for reasons 1 cannot
reveal. She became an apprentice to a Basque chef in a restaurant called
Cady’s Alley. It was billed in the book as the world's only four-star, open-
hearth restaurant. This was a restaurant I had invented, in a real, nameless
alley saturated with garbage and winos' urine. When I submitted the book,
the alley had been cleaned up by a friend of mine who had opened a
restaurant there. I and my editor went there for lunch, and the proprietor,
Karl, said, "You've got to see what I've done." He took us next door, and
he had removed some finishing walls and there, in the original brick, was
the open hearth. My editor said, "Karl, do you know what you have done?
You have recreated the restaurant Katherine invented in her book." So I
called Random House and asked them to do the launch party in that
restaurant. The alley has now been renamed to "Cady's Alley."
Ms Harig: Donna, in your computer books, you have an artificial
intelligence, called Turing Hopper. You've gone through various plots, one
involving computer fraud, you had a hit-and-run; is there anything you
can't comprehend doing with her?
Ms Andrews: It is a challenge. When I came up with Turing, Malice
Domestic had a contest, the Pro-Am Contest. It's for the traditional, corny,
Agatha Christie type of mystery. For it, I came up with the idea of having
the computer be the detective. In the first draft, there was no action or
dialogue. It was a challenge to figure out how to bring the outside world
into the computer and the computer into the outside world. Turing speaks
in the first person, because I wanted her to be more real than the humans,
almost. I actually put in a chase scene, two of them, in which Turing
participated: one of them through the cameras and the other in a plot
scene.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Ms Harig: In one of your other books, we meet a bankrupt zookeeper who
has to foster his eharges out into the eommunity. I understand that was
based on reality, too.
Ms Andrews: Yes. The genesis of a book for me is a kind of a random
process of things coming together. I wanted to use penguins. I was at the
Omaha zoo. Near the penguin cage, I heard a child's voice, "Mommy,
look, the penguins are fighting." It was May. You can imagine what the
penguins were doing. We watched the mating dance, these funny, slippery,
round little creatures. Ms. Andrews imitated the sounds of the happy
penguins. [Your recording secretary cannot; for that, you will have to visit
a zoo with penguins in May.] It hit me; I don't have to take them to
Antarctica, we can have a zoo. Then I saw some footage of Hurricane
Katrina, where they had taken some animals to higher ground. They were
taking the wolves for walks on leashes and the bears were swimming in
the pool. I thought, ‘T want to do that.” Then, the third thing that helped
the concept is that there is a zoo in Reston. [Ms. Andrews lives in Reston,
VA.] So we have the character in the book digging a pond in a cool place,
his basement, for a displaced penguin from a local bankrupt zoo, and
finding the body.
Ms Neville: This is how literary minds work, from penguins humping each
other at a zoo to bodies in the basement.
Ms Harig: I think our audience would be interested in the background
behind designer farm animals.
Ms Andrews: I had gone to a farm and seen Belted Galloways, black cows
with white belts around the middle. Kathy took me to a place where they
had goats chosen to look like the cows; at first I thought they were calves.
From the owner, Kathy found out these were Belted Tennessee Fainting
Goats. They have a genetic defect. They don't actually faint, but when they
are startled, their legs stiffen and they may keel over. One owner said that
if he gave them a particularly good feed, they would keel over in ecstasy.
[Amid the laughter, Ms. Andrews insisted this is a serious condition.] The
breed of these goats was preserved by shepherds, who put some of them in
with sheep. If wolves chase the flock, they catch the goats. So they only
survive because they are scapegoats.
Ms Harig: Now tell us about the designer farm.
Ms Andrews: Oh, yes. Martha Stewart has a farm where all the decor,
including the animals, were black, white, and gray. [You can't make this
stuff up.] She even had black Friesian horses, which were not allowed out
Spring 2010
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in daytime because they would sunburn to a rusty red and not fit the decor.
So the main plot in the book, the "McGuffm," as writers call it, is a rose
competition in which the challenge is to develop a rose that is as near as
possible to a perfect black.
[An impertinent woman in the audience asked, "Could you kill off Martha
Stewart? "]
Ms Andrews: The woman who owned the farm that hosted the Rose
Contest made Martha look nice.
Ms Harig: Lawrence, you've had some people making some dicey
decisions in your book. 1 understand that was based on research. Tell us
about that, and how you did the research.
Mr. Goldstone: Medical ethics and scientific ethics are interesting. The
question is, are you going to save people if the cost is killing others.
Medical ethics is more interesting because the effects are immediate. After
you do enough research, you understand that with human progress, there is
always this cost. In medicine, you are faced with the possibility of saving
many people but at the risk of [endangering] people in the process. 1 took
the real people in the book and studied what they wrote about and what
they did. When 1 write fiction, I know I'm on when 1 can just kind of
report. In nonfiction, you are restricted by what people said and did
(though not everyone feels that way). In Osier's case and in Halstead's
case, and in medicine as Johns Hopkins was being founded, it really was a
fulcrum of Civil War medicine; cut off a lot of parts and see who survived.
By 1910, medicine had become very advanced. It was people who faced
these ethical issues that moved medicine forward. It was a lot of fun,
trying to put myself into their minds and bodies and see how they would
do it, not how I would do it, but how they would do it with me sort of
pulling the strings. The characters really do speak to you. When you are
writing well, the characters will tell you what to do. If you try to shoehorn
[yourself] in, you will become very wealthy and your name is Dan Brown
(author of The Da Vinci Code).
Ms Harig: Katherine, your characters have a lot of your own character and
experience, banking, finance, and so on.
Ms Neville: First, I must address what Lawrence said. Everything he said
is the theme of every book I have written. What should we do with
scientific knowledge that could either be beneficial or dangerous? When I
had worked at Bank of America two weeks, I had figured out how to steal
a billion dollars from the banking system through wire transfers. I told a
Washington Academy of Sciences
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colleague, 1 have figured this out, would it work? He called me back and
said it does. He added some bells and whistles.
In 1992, when Calculated Risk eame out, the BCCI banking scandal was
breaking, so, instead of the usual promotion circuit, I was on the morning
news. People were calling me, writing me notes: Dear Ms. Neville, what
can we do to save the banking system. I said, “They used to pay me to tell
them that, but they never took my advice.”
Ms Harig: Well, thank you, you have been a wonderful panel. Do we have
any questions from the audience?
Audience member: Does anybody use stickies? How do you do that? On a
wall?
Ms Neville: I no longer use note cards. I write in my books, and I put
stiekies in where I wrote. It turns out that does not upset rare book
librarians, who realize that it makes the book more valuable. That kind of
thing is going to be the only thing we have left [in the author's own hand]
now that everything is on the computer.
Ms Andrews: I don't use stickies, but I do create a folder in my computer. I
use cyber-stickies. You don't need paper, but you need a couple of hard
drives.
Audience member: [To Mr. French] Does your Department know what
you do? How has your work after hours ehanged what you do?
Mr. French: They have been very supportive. They do know what I do. If
you go to YouTube and search for my name, you will see a video produced
by the Police Department, about what I do on the crime seenes and writing
about the crime scenes. They were very supportive of Past Sins and
Criminal Investigations as long as I gave them copies. I have not yet told
them of an anthology I am now working on called Bad Cop, No Doughnut.
I don't think I am going to tell them. I've had some poliee deteetives read
Past Sins and tell me they wished the real Baltimore Police Department
worked as well as the idealized one I wrote about here. One of my stock
devices is to get everybody involved in a ease around a table and knock
out ideas. That is not done in reality, but some detectives wish it was.
An audience member asked about the ethics of using information that
could be used to do harm.
Ms Neville: You have to be concerned. I once asked a physieist what is the
most important thing a nuclear physicist should study, and he said, ethies.
My book on that subject dealt with things that were actually happening
Spring 20 1 0
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when my book came out, so I knew I didn't give away anything.
Mr. Goldstone: My next book is set in the 1430's, so I am not worried.
Ms Andrews: It is a concern. In one book, I needed an explosion. I found a
Navy Seal. He vetted me. "I won't tell you how to do this," he said. I said,
"But I want someone like you to tell me only that it can be done." But I
don't think mystery writers are giving people any information they can't
get on the nightly news.
Mr. French: People often ask me, “How would I do this, how would I do
that?” If they are at a writer's convention, I assume they are mystery
writers and not murderers. They are looking for a critique of how they
plan to write it, not a lesson in how it is done. There are some things as a
writer that I would love to do, but as a member of a police department,
there is no way in hell I can, in good conscience, put on paper and publish.
Audience member, to Neville: What's your next project?
Ms Neville: I'm going to Santa Fe to do research. It has to do with the
invention of oil painting in the 1500's. It revolutionized painting. People
no longer had to compete for commissions from churches. Women could
paint. Painters could travel. It was very exciting.
Audience member, to Andrews: What's your next book?
Ms Andrews: All of my books in the "Meg" [Langslow] series have birds
in the titles. My next one is going to be Stork Raving Mad. Others were
Murder with Puffins, Revenge of the Wrought-iron Flamingos, Crouching
Buzzard - Leaping Loon, We'll Always Have Parrots, Owls Well that Ends
Well, No Nest for the Wicket, The Penguin Who Knew Too Much,
Cockatiels at Seven, Swan for the Money, and Six Geese A-Slaying, my
Christmas offering. In Stork Raving Mad, the heroine is 8 1/2 months
pregnant with twins. Her husband is a college professor. The heating
system at the college breaks and they take in a dozen students. Her
husband is up for tenure. The book is all about academic tenure. I have
friends who are academics, some seeking tenure, some graduate students.
One has had such trouble with her committee, 1 promised to kill off two of
the members [on paper). Every time they did something nasty to her, I
added a person trying to kill her. The book illustrates the point that
academic battles are so bitter because the stakes are so small.
Washington Academy of Sciences
37
Mr. Goldstone: After all those titles, I'm embarrassed to say, mine is The
Astronomer. It will be out in May. fhere are some academics, a little
revenge, but no birds.
To a question, "Who's the astronomer?" Goldstone said, "I'm not allowed
to tell." You will have to get a copy.
Ms Harig invited everyone to look at the books outside and meet with the
authors. Folks lined up to have authors sign books.
At 8:27 PM, the meeting wrapped up amid chuckles.
Spring 2010
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Washington Academy of Sciences
39
Capital Science 2010
Capital Science is a biennial event presented by the Washington Aeademy of
Sciences and its Affiliated Organizations. Each event has improved on the one
before it. CapScilO - the fourth such event - was held on the weekend of March
27-28 at the National Science Foundation in Arlington, Virginia. The two plenary
sessions were: (1) a panel discussion of Science Policy DebateOS - Where are We
Now? which examined the promises made by the presidential candidates in the
120-million strong “Science Policy 08” and reported on the progress and non-
progress after two years; and (2) Growing up with Science at PBS conducted by
PBS Director of Education, Donelle Blubaugh, who illustrated her talk with film
clips from “Curious George” and NOVA.
Sponsors for the conference were: AlphaGraphics, Blue Canopy, Donna
deMoranville Turgeon, Famous Dave’s, Great Blue Heron Catering, HyoerV
Technologies, Eiving Oceans Foundation, Millen, White, Zelano & Branigan, PC,
Research [America, Sterling Framing, and Vertech Inc.
These conferences provide a close-up view of what is happening in science in the
Washington, DC area. There will be several “CapScilO - a sequel” programs
throughout the year. Registration is free for all CapScilO registrants. The first
such event was “Who Owns the Weather” on April 26.
The WAS web site www.washacadsci.oru provides several photos from the
conference. We show a selection of these in the Journal. The web site
http://ww\v.washacadsci.org/Activities/PhotoArchive/Capitalscience20 10/index.htm contains
the plenaries.
Spring 2010
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PHOTOS FROM CAPITAL SCIENCE 2010
James Yorke
Catherine With
Mary Woolley & Francesca Grifo
Washington Academy of Sciences
41
Lunch at CapSci
Kiki Ikossi, Gerard Christman, Chuck Davis
Jane Lubehenco & A1 Teich Mark Holland with the Salisbury students
Spring 2010
42
Eugenie Mielczarek
Martin Ogle
Frank Flaig, SJ & Doug Witherspoon
Washington Academy of Sciences
Peg Kay
Jay Sanders
Spring 2010
Audience at lunch talk
Janies Yorke
Washington Academy of Sciences
45
Science08-where are we now panel
Dinner audience
Anh Dao
Gene Williams & Mark Holland
Spring 2010
46
DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
REPRESENTING AFFILIATED SCIENTIFIC SOCIETIES
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American Institute of Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration
American Meteorological Society
American Nuclear Society
American Phytopathological Society
American Society for Cybernetics
American Society for Microbiology
American Society of Civil Engineers
American Society of Mechanical Engineers
American Society of Plant Physiology
Anthropological Society of Washington
ASM International
Association for Women in Science (AWIS)
Association for Computing Machinery
Association for Science, Technology, and Innovation
Association of Information Technology Professionals
Biological Society of Washington
Botanical Society of Washington
Chemical Society of Washington
District of Columbia Institute of Chemists
District of Columbia Psychology Association
Eastern Sociological Society
Electrochemical Society
Entomological Society of Washington
Geological Society of Washington
Historical Society of Washington, DC
Fluman Factors and Ergonomics Society
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Washington DC Section
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Northern Va. Section
Institute of Food Technologies
Institute of Industrial Engineers
Instrument Society of America
Marine Technology Society
Maryland Native Plant Society
Mathematical Association of America
Medical Society of the District of Columbia
Paul Arveson
J. Terrell Hoffeld
Frank R. Haig, S.J.
Ramona Schreiber
David W. Brandt
Michael Greeley
Kenneth Carey
Steven Arndt
Kenneth L. Deahl
Stuart Umpleby
VACANT
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Daniel J. Vavrick
Mark Holland
Marilyn London
Toni Marechaux
Jodi Wesemann
Kent Miller
F. Douglas Witherspoon
Barbara Safranek
F. Christian Thompson
Emanuela Appetiti
Jim Zwolenlk
Jim Zwolenlk
David Williams
Ronald W. Mandersheid
Robert L. Ruedisueli
F. Christian Thompson
Bob Schneider
VACANT
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Gerard Christman
Murty Polavarapu
Isabel Walls
Neal F.Schmeidler
Hank Hegner
Judith T. Krauthamer
VACANT
Sharon K. Hauge
Duane Taylor
Washington Academy of Sciences
DELEGATES TO THE WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
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Volume 96
Number 2
Summer 2010
Journal of the
WASHINGTON
ACADEMY OF
MCZ
Ubrary
SEP 2 4 2010
harvard
UNIVERSITY
SCIENCES
Editor’s Comments J. Maffucci i
Letters to the Editor iii
“Human Music” a Theoretical Model of How Music Induces Affect D. Teie 1
A New Perspective on the Early History of the American Society for Cybernetics
E. Corona and B. Thomas 21
Air Traffic Controller Workload: Estimating Look-Ahead Conflict Detection Counts
N. Coleman and E. Feldman 35
A Digital-Discrete Method For Smooth-Continuous Data Reconstruction L. Chen 47
Outgoing President’s Speech KUd IkossI 67
Incoming President’s Speech Mark Holland 72
Banquet 2010 photos 73
ISSN 0043-0439
Issued Quarterly at Washington DC
Washington Academy of Sciences
Founded in 1898
Board of Managers
Elected Officers
President
Mark Holland
President Elect
Gerard Christman
Treasurer
Larry Millstein
Secretary
James Cole
Vice President, Administration
Lisa Frehill
Vice President, Membership
Sethanne Howard
Vice President, Junior Academy
Paul L. Hazan
Vice President, Affiliated Societies
E. Eugene Williams
Members at Large
Denise Ingram
Terrell Erickson
Frank Haig, S.J.
Alianna Maren
Daryl Chubin
Russell Vane III
Past President: Kiki Ikossi
Affiliated Society Delegates:
Shown on back cover
Editor of the Journal
Jacqueline Maffucci
Associate Editor:
Sethanne Howard
The Journal of the Washington Academy of
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SEP 2 4 2010
Editor’s Comments Harvard
university
Since assuming the position of Editor for the Journal of the
Washington Academy of Sciences, I have been considering how to
improve upon this already wonderfully diverse journal. This issue begins
with a new section that I hope to continue in future issues: Letters to the
Editor. I foresee this section as a forum for our readers to discuss their
research interests. I leave it to the contributors to decide upon the content.
However, to get the ideas started, I would encourage short pieces
discussing new hypotheses that you might be developing, findings from
preliminary studies, commentary in the contribution of new techniques
being used in your fields of study, or commentary on new
hypotheses/fmdings in your fields. I also foresee this section as a way to
encourage young scientists to publish. I would love to have contributions
from all age groups! Deadlines for submissions can be found at
www.washacadsci.org. For the Fall issue, this deadline is October 15,
2010.
Following our Letters to the Editor section, we have a number of
great articles for your review. We begin with a fascinating paper by David
Teie, a cellist with the National Symphony Orchestra with an interest in
the effect of music on emotional states. His love of music led him to pair
with Charles T. Snowden of The University of Wisconsin to study the
affect of species-specific music on the cotton-top tamarind. He is now
collaborating with Jagmeet Kanwal at Georgetown University to test his
hypothesis that combination sensitivity is involved in the emotional
response to music. In this paper, Mr. Teie discusses his hypothesis,
introducing background information surrounding recognition of specific
musical elements and resulting emotional responses and the implications
of these findings.
We then continue a discussion about Cybernetics. Corona and
Thomas build on past discussions about Cybernetics by presenting a new
perspective on the early development of the American Society for
Cybernetics. Here they present a brief historical synopsis of the discipline.
The authors then draw on newly archived documents and correspondence
among the founders of the Society to revisit the early history of the
organization. They end with a commentary on its present day status.
Following this, Coleman and Feldman introduce the complex
world of air traffic control. Air traffic controllers are faced with
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monitoring thousands of square miles of airspace daily to insure that the
numerous aircrafts occupying that space remain at a safe distance from
one another. It is crucial for them to detect and resolve conflicts that arise
between any two aircrafts as they traverse their routes in any given
moment in time. This paper introduces a new linear programming model
and offers evidence that it more efficiently detects potential conflicts
between aircrafts.
In the final article of this issue, Li Chen introduces a newly
designed systematic digital-discrete method for smooth-continuous data
reconstruction. He provides evidence for its advantages over existing
models, and demonstrates functional uses for this new application.
We end this issue with highlights from the WAS Annual Awards
Banquet held in May. The banquet was held in the Atrium of the
Meadowlark Botanical Gardens, a beautiful venue to congratulate the
WAS Award Recipients and meet our new officers. Included in the
highlights are speeches from the outgoing WAS President, Kiki Ikossi,
and the incoming WAS President, Mark Holland. We follow that with
photos from the evening.
With that, I leave you to enjoy this latest issue. I look forward to
your Letters to the Editor submission. Enjoy the rest of the summer and
weTl see you in the Fall!
Jackie Maffucci
Editor, The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Letters to the Editor
From : Alianna J. Maren
President and Chief Scientist, Themis Enterprises
Complexity and Graph Theory: A Brief Note
Santo Fortunato (2010) will publish an interesting and densely rich article,
“Community Detection in Graphs,” in the coming journal of
Com/7/exz/y (July-August, 2010; Inter-Wiley). This article is over 100
pages long; it is relatively complete, with numerous references and
excellent figures. Fortunato makes fascinating points about communities
(clusters) within graphs, and describes leading algorithms in a way that is
both clear and expostulatory. This article provides an excellent
introduction and overview of graph clustering methods.
It is a bit surprising, however, that this extensive discussion misses one of
the things that would seem to be most important in discussing graphs, and
particularly, clusters within graphs: the stability of these clusters. That is,
the theoretical basis for cluster stability.
Yedidia et al. (2003), in “Understanding Belief Propagation,” make the
point that there is a close connection between Belief Propagation (BP) and
the Bethe approximation of statistical physics. This suggests that there is a
way to construct new message-passing algorithms. In particular, more
general approaches to the work undertaken by Bethe ’s approximation,
namely the Cluster Variation Method (CVM) introduced by Kikuchi and
later by Kikuchi and Brush (1967), generalize the Bethe approximation. In
essence, the free energy is minimized across not only distribution between
simple “on” and “off’ states, but also across the distribution of physical
clusters. This expansion of the entropy concept into cluster distribution
(across the available types of clusters) is important.
Free energy minimization provides a natural and intuitive means for
determining “equilibrium,” or at least, “reasonably stationary” system
states. These would correspond to natural evolutions of communities,
which can be interpreted as clusters.
Pelizzola (2005), in “Cluster Variation Method in Statistical Physics and
Probabilistic Graphical Models,” points out that graph theory subsumes
* Taken from http://aliannaJmaren.blogspot.com
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CVM and other approximation methods. This makes graph theory the
nexus at which the CVM methods, belief inference, and community-
formation “connect.” Or perhaps, they form an interesting “graph
community.”
References
Fortunato, S. (Jan, 2010), “Community Detection in Graphs,” Physics
Reports, 486, 75-174.
Online as: http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0906/0906.0612v2.pdf
Yedidia, J.S.; Freeman, W.T.; Weiss, Y. (2003), “Understanding Belief
Propagation and Its Generalizations”, Exploring Artificial Intelligence
in the New Millennium, ISBN 1558608117, Chap. 8, 239-236, January
2003 (Science & Technology Books).
Online as: http://www.merl.eom/reports/docs/TR2001-22.pdf
Kikuchi, R., & Brush, S.G. (1967), “Improvement of the
Cluster - Variation Method,” J. Chem. Phys. 47, 195.
Online as: http://jcp.aip.Org/jcpsa6/v47/i 1/p 1 95_s 1 ?isAuthorized=no
Pelizzola, A. (2005), “Cluster variation method in statistical physics and
probabilistic graphical models,” J. Physics A: Mathematical & General,
38 (33) R308.
Online as: http://iopscience.iop.org/0305-4470/38/33/R01/
Washington Academy of Sciences
“Human Music”
A Theoretical Model of How Music Induces Affect
David Teie
University of Maryland School of Music, College Park
Abstract
A variety of musical elements including compositional techniques, instrument
modifications, and performance practices were incrementally introduced over the
centuries of the development of music. 1 examined these elements and found that
each can be logically linked to recognition that is capable of triggering a
neurochemical response. If the musical elements and their respective recognition
responses can be organized into a theoretical model, it could increase our
understanding of music’s ability to induce affective states in listeners.
This theory proposes that: 1) the auditory system is predisposed to efficiently and
clearly process certain types of sounds, such as those resembling the human
voice, and that most musical instruments create sounds that benefit from this clear
processing, 2) each element in music induces an independent emotional response
by presenting an acoustic stimulus that is a match for a preexisting template of
recognition, 3) as these elements are presented in music, concurrently and
consecutively, the recognition triggers appropriate emotional, neurochemical
responses, and 4) the accumulation of neurochemical reactions from the
recognition responses is the cornerstone of emotional response to music. For the
purposes of this presentation “emotional response” refers to any stimulation of
the brain structures responsible for our emotions, this includes the barely
perceptible reaction to pattern recognition, as well as the more obvious responses
commonly associated with emotion.
Plausible explanations are given for the recognition of and emotional responses to
the following elements of music: pulse, tempo of pulse, amplitude contour of
pulse, tactile reception of pulse, meter, notes, syllabic contour, melodic rhythm,
melodic accents, phrase length, phrase contour, continuity, melodic frequency
range, resonance-enhanced periodic sound, timbre, tonality, frequency range,
melodic contour, melodic rhythm, accents of melody, loudness, rate of syllabic
repetition, vocal tract variables, key modulations, tempo range, pattern, chaotic
movement, directed movement, perfect movement, harmony, counterpoint,
compositional structure, phrase structure, and anticipation.
The origins of these elements can be classified into four categories. The first two
categories involve responses triggered by auditory processing and recognition: 1)
limbic system development and 2) emotionally generated vocalizations. The other
two categories trigger responses that have been exapted by music: 3) linguistic
processing and 4) visuospatial processing.
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One published and two unpublished experiments have shown that applications
based on the limbic system development and emotionally generated vocalization
components of this theory (with appropriate adjustments for other species) have
led to effective species-specific music (Snowdon & Teie, 2010). There may be a
constant set of principles to be derived from human music that can be applied to
music for many mammalian species. The musical analysis of animal
communication needed to create this music also shows promise of providing a
greater understanding of animal communication.
Background
Some authors {e.g. Levitin, 2009) argue that music is one of the best
forms of emotional communication known and the musical components of
speech (known as prosody) provide honest emotional signals. Despite the
limited data on musical abilities in nonhuman species, there has been great
interest in the structure of signals that communicate emotional state in
nonhuman species. Morton (Morton, 1977; Owings & Morton, 1998) has
argued that high-pitched, pure-tone sounds are common to friendly or
appeasing contexts whereas low, loud, noisy (broadband) sounds are
common to expressions of threats and aggression.
Going beyond prosody, musical structure affects the behavior and
physiology of humans. Infants as young as two months old spend more time
looking at a speaker that provided consonant compared with dissonant
music (Zentner & Kagan, 1996; Trainor, Chang & Cheung, 2002) and after
hearing dissonant music, it was difficult for infants to attend subsequently
to consonant music. Studies on the effects of music on emotions showed
that for adults certain types of classical music so called “high-uplifting”
music such as Kreisler’s Liebesfreud or Satie’s Picadilly led to increased
activity, reduced depression and increased norepinephrine levels.
Alternatively, “low-uplifting music,” such as AXb'mom' ^ Adagio for Strings
and Organ or Satie’s Gnossiennes No 4, led to an increased sense of
well-being (Hirokawa & Ohira, 2003).
While there are convincing theories that explain certain responses to
music such as anticipation (Huron, 2006) there is no generally accepted
alternative theory of the origins and affective processes of music. Although
the neural pathways and emotional responses of many musical elements
have been identified, such as the fear response to dissonance, the reasons
for those responses have been elusive. Why should we have an innate fear
response to dissonance?
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“Human Music:” a Theory of the Origins and Affective Processes of
Music
I designed species-specific music to test the validity of the theory of
“Human Music.” This theoretical model recognizes that music, as we know
it, is a human construct made by and for humans based on our development,
vocalizations, and perceptions. I predicted that by modifying musical
characteristics to conform to the development, vocalizations, and
perceptions of another species, I could create music that would elicit
appropriate behavioral responses from members of that species.
I have used the conventional analytical process of disassembly and
examination in an attempt to find a logical connection between each
separately identifiable element of music and the emotional response that it
triggers. Under the umbrella of “Human Music” are four categories of
affective responses to individual characteristics of music and five ancillary
theories that provide possible frameworks for the understanding of: musical
climaxes (see section - Accumulated Responses); the development of
music (see section - Affectively Selected Organization); the ability of
music to retain affective responses with repeated hearings (see section -
Habituation); why music often presents concurrent stimuli (see section -
Combined Stimuli); and a proposed axis of perception that governs
mammalian vocal communication and music (see section - Chaos/Order).
The first three categories of this theory (Limbic System Development
Memory, Emotional Vocalizations, Sympathetic Arousal of Affective
States Through Vocalizations) represent interpretations of existing
empirical research. The last six categories are largely hypothetical and lack
empirical data. They are proposed as logical and plausible explanations that
may be worthy of investigation. These theories are not intended to supplant
or contradict extant theories such as those regarding expectation or
linguistics, but should be seen as possible additional mechanisms that elicit
emotional responses.
Outline of ^^Human Music** Theory
“Human Music” is a collection of theories relating to the origins and
development of music and our affective responses to it. The theories are
consistent with existing research and are intended to provide plausible
connections between brain development and responses to music.
The overriding premise common to all of the constituent theories
and hypotheses is that music presents, concurrently and consecutively, an
array of acoustic stimuli that are each capable of inducing an emotional
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response. Even a simple example of a single instrument playing a
single-line 14 second melody may present eight different acoustic triggers.
Listening to music may be compared to viewing a series of rapidly
alternating pictures that induce fear, affection, excitement, and tranquility.
The accumulation of neurochemical responses to these independently
identifiable auditory stimuli creates the enhanced emotional state induced
by music.
The human auditory system provides particularly clear processing
of certain types of sounds, such as the sound of the human voice. These
stable auditory images are compared to templates of recognition and, when
matches are identified, appropriate emotional responses are triggered. I
propose that music presents patterns of sounds that are given priority status
in primary auditory processing and are close enough to matching some of
the acoustic templates of recognition to trigger emotional responses. Of the
templates that musical elements resemble, some are innate, such as the
sound of a human scream, and others are formed by the sounds heard by the
fetus in the womb when the fetal brain structures are plastic and being
organized.
I submit that only those musical elements and modifications that
induced emotional responses were adopted into general usage and are
examined below.
The origins of these elements can be classified into four categories:
1) limbic system development: the maternal respiratory and vocal sounds
heard by the fetus that inform the development of the brain structures
responsible for emotions, 2) emotionally generated vocalizations: the
acoustic characteristics of these vocalizations define conspecific templates
of recognition, 3) linguistic processing: recognition responses to a variety
of speech characteristics provide a basis for musical adaptation, and 4)
visuospatial processing: when music is perceived visuospatially it may
trigger emotional responses to movement. There is some redundancy in
these categories due to the inclusion in linguistic processing of
characteristics that are found in emotionally generated vocalizations such
as a loud, high-pitched sound of a scream used in an utterance of warning.
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Limbic System Development Memory
This category includes those elements of music that are most
universal. It includes musical representations of sounds that are heard
during the time when the limbic structures are formed in the developing
brain. The following conditions allow for the formation of lasting fetal
acoustic memories. The human fetus is able to hear at 24 weeks, providing 4
months of constant sound exposure (Birnholz & Benacerraf 1983) prior to
birth. The sound of the maternal heartbeat is 25 db above basal noise,
dominating the fetal environment (Querleu et al, 1988). The maternal voice
is heard in the uterus nearly four times more strongly than it is heard
externally (Richards et al, 1992). In utero research and analysis has shown
consistent evidence that the fetus responds to the sound of the mother's
heartbeat (Porcaro et al, 2006).
The combination of three features of human fetal development
make it possible for the sounds of the womb to provide a lasting template of
recognition: 1) the dearth of competing sensory information in the fetal
environment allows sound to be a primary source of varied and ever-present
information entering the developing brain, 2) well-organized information
that is incoming when a brain structure is plastic will tend to remain
organized in the brain, and 3) the limbic structures are almost completely
formed at birth (Huang et al, 2006). A logical conclusion to the summed
effects is that the structures of the limbic system may remember and later
respond to sounds that resemble those of the fetal environment.
In light of anatomical studies that have emphasized the
interconnections between ventral limbic circuits and the motor control
loops between striatum and motor cortex (Gunnar & Nelson, 1992), I
propose that the acoustic information that pervaded the development of
structures responsible for our emotions as well as structures near the
brainstem responsible for repetitive movement is the source and origin of
pulse, meter, and rhythm in music. McDermott (2008) identified several
universal properties of music: pulse, hierarchal organization of scales
(tonality), infant-directed song, dance, and meter. To McDermott’s list I
would add: amplitude contour of pulse instrument, use of
resonator-enhanced periodic sounds, prevalence of discrete
single-frequency units (musical notes), varied pitches and rhythms in the
melodies (prosody), continuity, and the 200-900 Hz frequency range of
melodic instruments. All of these universal features of music can be traced
to the fetal acoustic environment that informed the developing structures of
the limbic system.
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Below are brief descriptions of the recognition responses to
elements of music that are bom of limbic system development:
A regular and repeated Pulse (pulse is understood as the regular,
underlying beat that defines the meter) is one of the universal traits of music
even though it is not found in human vocalizations. The repetition rates of
musical pulses (40-240 beats per minute) coincide with the slowest
(respiration) and fastest (footfalls of running) pulses that can be heard in the
womb. Instmments that create amplitude contours that resemble that of a
heartbeat (z.e., the pedal dmm) commonly keep the musical pulse.
The construction of a drum enables it to create a heartbeat-like
amplitude contour of the pulse instrument. Drums have been similarly
constructed in many different cultures. The onset of sound is graduated by a
cushioned beater, a stretched animal skin, or both. The decay of sound is
elongated with a resonating chamber. The graduated onset and elongated
decay of a pedal drum creates an amplitude contour that resembles that of
the heartbeat as heard in the womb (onset .02s, decay .06s). The
introduction of high-level amplification in the 1960s enabled tactile
reception of the musical beats. The proximity of the fetus to the maternal
heart allows the heartbeat to be felt as well as heard, providing the
recognition that makes amplification desirable.
Meter is a repeated pattern of strong and weak beats. The
combinations of strong and weak pulses found in the primary meters are
derived from the sounds of respiration combined with the sound of the
heartbeat. Strong - weak is known as duple meter; the meter 1 strongest - 2
weak - 3 strong - 4 weak is known as “common time” in Western music.
When respiration and heartbeat are combined (1 inhalation + heartbeat, 2
heartbeat alone, 3 exhalation + heartbeat, 4 heartbeat alone) the result is
common time that is consistent with normal human heart and respiratory
rates (four heartbeats/respiratory cycle). The prevailing duality of pulse in
Western music is the same duality found in the human rhythms of
heartbeats, breathing, and walking. The triple meter: 1 strong - 2 weak - 3
weaker is formed when a weak beat is placed in the silence between the
duple pulses of the heart. This spacing (described in the traditional phonetic
approximation of the sound of the heart “Tubb, dub” used by physicians)
results in: TUBB, dub, (silence), ONE, two, (three).
The mother’s speech that is heard in the womb consists primarily of
single-frequency segments created by the vowels between the consonants
(Querleu et ai, 1988). These units provide the singular basis for notes in
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music. Mammalian vocalizations generally consist of syllables that have
contoured frequencies (sliding pitches), such as a cat’s meow or a dog’s
submissive whimper, as well as the human vocalizations of moaning and
weeping that originate in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, the anterior
cingulate cortex, the extended amygdala and the ventral striatum (Parvizi et
al., 2001). Despite this preference in emotional vocalizations, human music
contains a preponderance of discrete single-frequency units.
The acoustical properties of the womb attenuate frequencies
unevenly. Due to the absorption of sound by the surrounding tissues in the
womb, higher frequencies from external sources are subject to more
attenuation than lower frequencies. Consequently the consonants of speech
are nearly inaudible in the womb but the “melody” of the pitches created by
the vowels between the consonants is quite audible. Speech is produced in
predominantly consonant intervals and contains implied tonalities
(Schwartz & Purves, 2004; Bowling et al, 2010). As a consequence, the
melodies heard in the womb consist of primarily harmonically consonant
intervals.
A spoken sentence is heard in the womb as a pattern of discrete
pitches in a variety of melodic contours and rhythms. The prosody of
languages form the bases for melodic treatment in music. Newborns of
French mothers prefer the sound of the French language to Russian (Mehler
et al, 1988). The newborns still prefer the French language when the
speech is filtered to remove the consonant and vowel sounds, retaining only
the melody, but they do not show a preference for the melody of the French
language when played backwards, implying that a fetus is able to recognize
intervallic relationships and melodic contours. Evidence for fetal
absorption of the melodic contours of maternal speech is also found in the
cries of newborns that emulate the melodic contours of the mother’s
language (Mampe et al, 2009). Words and combinations of words create
recognizable rhythms that are found in the melodic rhythms of musical
motives. Cultures whose languages have accented syllables also have
corollary accents in their melodies. For example, the definite articles in the
Germanic and Romance languages {the sea, das See, la mer) are heard in
the musical upbeats at the beginning of many melodies. The music of
cultures whose languages do not contain definite articles rarely have
musical upbeats to their melodies. Note the preference for beginning
melodies on the beat in the music of Mussorgsky (Russian) and Dvorak
(Czech).
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The musical phrases found in the cultures with non-tonal languages
tend to rise toward the middle and fall again at the end. This is also the
predominant melodic contour of a spoken sentence in a non-tonal language.
Cultures that have contoured frequencies in their languages tend to have a
proportional ratio of contoured frequencies in their native music. The
pentatonic scales used in much of the music of East Asia do not contain the
half-steps that are commonly used in Western and Middle Eastern scales.
The whole-step intervals allow enough distance between the pitches to
accommodate the frequent use of sliding frequencies heard in their music,
as well as in their languages.
Continuous melodies, accompaniments, and beat patterns are
found in the music of all cultures. Musical selections that contain extended
pauses of even a few seconds are rare. This is significant considering the
obvious and strong connections between music and speech. While speech
pauses regularly, the baseline sounds heard by the fetus in the womb are
constant. Music that has continuous accompanimental beat patterns
interspersed with melodies is a representation of the fetal sonic
environment.
The frequency range of melodic instruments in a wide variety of
cultures is roughly 200-900 ITz, the same as the frequency range of an adult
human female voice (it should be noted that human hearing is not
particularly sensitive in this range, but is most sensitive in the range of 2-4
kHz).
Emotional Vocalizations
All of the acoustic characteristics of emotionally generated
vocalizations have been incorporated into emotionally charged speech and
music. Knowledge of the acoustic characteristics of a species’ emotional
vocalizations tends to be innate and universally shared among members of
that species (Herzog & Hopf, 1984). A primary role of the first phase of
auditory processing is to compare incoming sounds to templates of
recognition and signal an appropriate response when an acoustic “match” is
identified (Griffiths & Warren, 2002). One of the keys to music’s ability to
induce affective states in humans is the creation of sounds that are
approximate matches to commonly shared templates of recognition. The
emotional vocalizations of affection and submission are quiet and consist of
purer waveforms, whereas the emotional vocalizations of threats and
alarms are loud and haVe complex waveforms (Morton, 1977). Generally
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speaking, the variations of timbre, frequency range, and amplitude found in
music are based on these parameters of emotional vocalizations.
Most sounds in the natural world are either non-periodic (broadband
sound of wind or a waterfall) or transient (clicks and pops). Animal
vocalizations produce a characteristic resonator-enhanced periodic
sound created by the vibration of the vocal folds of the larynx with
overtones added by the vocal tract (Fitch & Reby, 2001). Mammals have a
broad range of resonance enhancements and many mammals, including
primates, have additional overtone modifications created by changes in the
shape of the mouth (vowels) (Fitch & Hauser, 1995). The human auditory
system is predisposed to filter out non-periodic and transient noise. When
the input to the cochlea is a periodic sound the neural activity pattern of the
sound oscillates. In contrast, the sensation produced by such a sound does
not flutter or flicker; indeed, “periodic sounds produce the most stable
auditory images” (Patterson et al., 1992, p. 4).
This predisposition allows music to be given priority status in
auditory processing since nearly eveiy^ pitched musical instrument produces
a resonator-enhanced periodic sound. The importance of adding a
modifying resonance to the periodic sound in musical instrument
manufacturing is indicated by the modifications made to the electric guitar.
The amplification that is provided by the resonating body of an acoustic
instrument is not necessary on an electric guitar; however, the sound from
the magnetic pickup was judged to be too pure by the early inventors who
then developed and installed modifiers that electronically added overtones
to the fundamental periodic sound (Poss, 1998).
The dissonant-consonant intervals used in speech and farther
adapted by music may be derived from and directly related to the
complex/threat and pure/affection polarity of primitive emotional
vocalizations. This acoustic dichotomy is one of the axes of music. The
amygdala responds to emotional vocalizations (Fecteau et al, 2007) and
also generates a fear response to dissonance (Ball et al, 2007). The ventral
striatum, midbrain, amygdala, orbitofrontal cortex, and ventral medial
prefrontal cortex are involved in pleasure responses to consonance (Blood
& Zatorre, 2001). This is consistent with the nonhuman acoustic alignment
of affective calls identified by Morton (1977) because simultaneous tones
spaced at dissonant intervals create an out-of-phase auditory competition
between the overtones that result in complex waveforms, whereas the
aligned overtones of consonance create waveforms that are relatively pure.
The complex overtones of a chord containing a dissonance will trigger a
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fear response because it resembles the complex voiceprint of a threat
containing a periodic sound with a broad array of overtones. Conversely,
consonant harmonies that have purer waveforms will be interpreted as
sounds that resemble affectionate vocalizations. There is also a melodic
expression ot this pure/complex waveform polarity. The dissonant intervals
tound in warning cries and threats, as well as the consonant intervals of
affective communication, are often interspersed in melodies. I found that
this polarity is also present in the vocalizations of the cotton-top tamarins
(Snowdon & Teie, 2010). It should be noted that complex waveforms
induce tear responses only when associated with the periodic sounds of
musical notes or vocalizations; complex waveforms or “white noise” that
are not associated with periodic sounds do not induce fear responses.
Repetitions in music are often directly associated with emotionally
generated vocalizations. Emotional calls throughout the animal world tend
to transmit these repeated patterns. E. O. Wilson noted that animal
communication is “repetitious to the point of inanity.” The
amygdala-generated sounds of sobbing, laughing, and moaning are all
comprised of varied repetitions of a single vocalized sound.
Sympathetic Arousal of Affective States Through Vocalizations
Variations in the resonating chambers of the vocal tract transmit
information relevant to the affective state of the vocalizing individual.
During in-group communication these variations will tend to elicit a
sympathetic emotional response in the listener. The three variables of
vocalizations are; 1) the vocal folds of the larynx tighten and loosen to raise
and lower the pitch, providing the source of the periodic sound, 2) the
higher or lower placement of the laiynx in the throat shortens or lengthens
the resonating cavity providing distinguishable formant patterns, and 3) the
enhanced periodic sound accounts for much of the emotional connectivity
of music.
Musical instruments have been developed that present timbres
resembling those of affective vocalizations. Players of instruments that
have highly variable timbres, such as the violoncello and saxophone, are
well schooled in the varying techniques and consistently strive to produce
timbres that are in keeping with the perceived emotional intent of the music.
The variations in the vocal tract produce three distinct strata of
sounds that reflect increasingly emotionally charged speech. The first
stratus is the baseline of normal vocalizations. The second stratus is
characterized by the lowering of the larynx (hereafter referred to as EE
Washington Academy of Sciences
speech). This lowering creates an enhanced resonance and shifts the pitch
center 2—5 semitones higher. The third stratus combines the lowered larynx
with a falsetto vocal production (hereafter referred to as TLF speech),
further raising the pitch center an additional 5-17 semitones (Jan et al.,
1999). This third stratus is rarely heard but highly emotional. For reasons
that may be physiological, the pitch contours of TTF speech are made up of
highly consonant intervals. The melodies of this type of vocalization are the
most consistently tonal of all human vocalizations. The clarity of the tonal
center and ubiquity of consonant intervals in LLF vocalizations rival that of
birdsong.
I propose that we are imbued at birth with the ability to recognize
the modifications to pitch center, formant resonance, intervallic
consonance, and tone quality that result from LL and TLF speech and that
we respond sympathetically to in-group demonstrations of these types of
speech. The emotionally generated vocalization of moaning always
incorporates LL or LLF vocal production.
Linguistics
The two remaining categories of responses to music are exaptations
of linguistic and visuospatial processing. Since the appreciation of these
aspects of music is enabled by the allocation of neural resources through
post-natal exposure and attention, the musical elements in these categories
will not be found in the music of all cultures.
The emotionally generated variables in linguistics that are very
closely related to music are described in the section Emotional
Vocalizations. There are many other connections between music and
linguistics that have been well documented and comprehensively described
(Patel, 2008). The linguistic influence in music is provided by both fetal
absorption of maternal speech (Mehler et al, 1988) and by the development
and awareness of speech and music during infancy and childhood. It is
unknown which of these exerts a greater influence.
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Visuospatial
The following is a hypothetical model of emotional responses that
are triggered when music is processed visuospatially. This model presumes
that we possess a variety of attentive responses to different types of
perceived movement. Many of these responses have yet to be tested, for
example, the response to downwardly directed, peripherally perceived
movement. Consequently, this category should be viewed as one that may
have a basis in logic but not in experimental data.
I propose that when music is processed in the visuospatial centers of
the brain it is capable of triggering emotional responses to corollary visual
cues. For example: a secondary musical line in the lower register will be
processed as peripherally perceived, directed movement eliciting an
attentive response.
The dominant perceptive ability of primates is vision (Pinker, 1997)
and an important extension of that visual foundation in the human mind is
spatial reckoning. The mind is predisposed to organize information
spatially and music has benefited from that predisposition. The elements of
music that rely on visuospatial processing are: pattern recognition, chaotic
movement, perfect/celestial movement, directed movement, harmony,
counterpoint (concerted movement), and structure.
Pattern recognition has been shown to induce emotional responses
in humans and other primates. Capuchin and squirrel monkeys prefer
symmetrical pictures and pictures with elements repeated at common
intervals more than random patterns (Anderson et al, 2005). The
subconscious enjoyment of design is also indicated by studies that have
shown that infants prefer gazing at symmetrical pictures (Bomstein et al,
1981). In visual and musical patterns, repetition is necessary in order to
create a pattern. A spiral, for example, has an outer beginning and an inner
ending and the self-contained repetition defines it as a design.
Perception of movement is central to the arts of dance, drama,
painting, sculpture, and music. The instinctive equation between movement
and life led ancient cultures to infer that elements that move are sacred
-imbued with a spiritual life: water, sun-moon-stars, fire, wind, clouds, and
music. However, music itself contains no movement; pitches and dynamics
can only imply it. Movement in music is supplied by the interpretation of
the sounds in the brain of the listener because we understand and organize
the world around us spatially. The perception of movement is inferred when
music is processed spatially. For example: there is no “up” or “down” to
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pitch. If we hear a given instrument play 262 Hz (middle c) followed by the
same instrument playing 247 Hz (b natural) we will ascribe movement to
the succession of pitches, that it has moved “down.” The successive
sounding of pitches from the same source can be interpreted and stored in
the brain as a kind of spatial, visual memory.
Just as we provide connections between dots to “see” a line, we
connect successive tones to “hear” a line. Our brains supply the missing
information to make sense of the pitches in the visuospatial right
hemisphere (Ng et al, 2000). When we hear successive pitches sounding
with the same timbre, the brain fills in the gaps and recognizes the sequence
“visually” as movement.
If we presume that emotional responses to certain types of
movement exist to provide appropriate reactions that would improve the
observer’s chances for survival, then it would follow that spatially
processed music could trigger emotional responses if it resembles a
corollary visual trigger. A hypothetical explanation for the attentive
response that we feel when we follow the parallel and contrary movements
of musical lines is that it may be this kind of exaptation of a visual response
to movement.
All celestial movements that are visible to the naked eye are
generally perceived to be perfect and ordered. This apparent perfection in
the movements of our sky has led civilizations to perceive it as the realm of
gods and heaven. Accordingly, religious music tends to incorporate
symmetrical patterns and consistent movement of the sky (arches) not the
earth (turbulence). Stormy, chaotic music will seldom be heard in religious
services. Slow music that proscribes the ordered arches of heavenly
movement expresses the perfection that we see in the firmament.
Turbulent terrestrial movements are chaotic. In the interpretation
of sensory perception our brains tend to ignore these turbulent movements
since they distract from the recognition of other movements that may
benefit our survival and allow a better understanding of our world. The
recognition of turbulent chaos, or, rather, our natural ability to ignore it, is
the first cognitive filter in the process of comprehension. In the auditoiy
system it happens automatically. In visual processing it occurs at a level of
intermediate attention that differentiates between the unimportant
movement of grass in the wind, and the critically important attention to the
movement of a potential predator detected in peripheral vision.
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In our natural world, purposeful, logical, directed movement is
generated by living beings. Predators seek this kind of movement and will
feel an attentive response when such movement is recognized. Mammalian
prey species are likely to feel a fear response when unexpected movement is
directed toward them. As both predator and prey, humans have evolved
emotional responses to visual perception of certain basic movements
related to hunting, being hunted, and battles. Smaller predators like
chameleons and mantids have acquired wavering stalking movements that
mask their approach by making them appear to the prey that they are a leaf
or stick swaying in the breeze. The bodies of larger predators cannot be
confused with anything small and light enough to blow in the wind and rely
on slow, steady movement directly toward the prey to prevent detection.
The ability of visual processing to filter out chaotic movements and
recognize determined movement is vitally important to nearly all animals. It
is logical to conclude that a feature of visual processing and emotional
response that is central to survival may be triggered by spatially processed
music.
There are three types of movement that trigger attentive responses
in humans and may be triggered by similarly perceived movement in music:
1) linear overtly attended movement, 2) change in direction, and
3) peripherally attended steady movement directed toward the observer.
The attentive response resulting from the first two are related to our
abilities as predators. The directed movement of a hunted animal will
heighten the awareness of the hunter. This movement will be kept in the
clearly focused line-of-sight, the fovea of the retina. Any variation in the
movement of the prey necessitates a reaction from the hunter. The
movement of prey under attack is evasive; the movement of the attacking
predator is reactive. This reaction is reflexive and emotionally stimulated.
The emotional tug we feel from changing movement may well be a small
dose of our adrenal-enhanced ability to follow the escape movements of
prey.
The third response to movement is related to defensive reactions to
potential attacks. A central requirement of visual/emotional processing is to
be able to take notice of the determined movement of an advancing predator
or enemy. As a part of the front line of vigilance, the eye will tend to turn
toward peripherally perceived movement. I propose that an inborn
attentive/emotional response to such movement may be triggered by the
“peripherally perceived” movement of secondary lines and harmonies in
music.
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Pack-hunting humans have a highly developed ability to keep track
of the concerted movements of the other hunters in their group while
stalking the movement of the prey. The emotional thrill we feel when we
successfully employ this instinctive ability is found in pack hunting-based
sports where every participant keeps a relationship to a single object,
usually a ball, and coordinates his own movements relative to the pack
(team). In soccer, for example, the bouncing and rolling of an inflated ball
simulates the bounding and running movements of an animal. Those who
enjoy the pack-hunters-herding-the-prey-into-a-net games (soccer, hockey,
basketball, lacrosse) do so because they are pack hunters in training. The
emotional response we feel that is related to traeking concerted movement
may be subtly tapped when we track perceived concerted movements
(counterpoint) in music. Someone who has spent a good deal of time
listening to music with acute attention will more readily perceive
contrapuntal movement and feel a stronger response to this kind of
stimulus.
Accumulated Responses
One of the most compelling mysteries of music is its ability to
induce the thrill of a climax. A partial explanation may be provided by the
gradual build-up of neurochemicals in the listener triggered by the
continuous array of recognition responses presented in music. An
accumulation of neurotransmitters responsible for consonant/pleasure and
dissonant/anxiety can result when an extended passage triggers many
responses through a succession of chords and harmonies. Music induces
emotional responses through a constant interplay between the dissonance of
threats and the consonance of affection and between the familiar and the
novel. Primates are particularly sensitive to novelty as well as to familiarity
(Wilson & Rolls, 1993), and both novelty and familiarity are capable of
triggering an attentive response. Accumulated doses of chemicals and
neurochemicals provided by the constant and concurrent string of
recognition responses preceding a musical climax create an emotionally
charged state in the listener. Generally, music fails to thrill if it lacks this
accumulation. If the musical passage is designed so that the emotional
responses accumulate more quickly than they dissipate, the result can be an
emotional rush. This may also help to explain why the tamarins in our tests
did not respond during the playback of the 30-second selections (see
below), but did respond during the 5 minutes after the music was presented.
(This could also be a function of the greater frequency of behaviors
observable during a longer duration.)
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Affectively Selected Organization
Just as natural selection allows preferred physiological adaptations
to be passed from one generation to the next, I propose that “affective
selection” is a multi-generational societal process whereby characteristics
that successfully evoke desired emotional responses are adopted by
consensus and incorporated into an organizational structure. It can be
observed in a broad spectrum of cultural traditions including literature,
cooking, art, architecture, and music. In the development of music of every
culture there has been a gradual inclusion of effective techniques and
modifications that were deemed acceptable by the musicians and passed on
to succeeding generations. When a novel acoustic trigger to an emotional
response is discovered or invented it will tend to be adopted by others and
becomes the new thread in the fabric of music. A recent example is found in
the previously mentioned development of the electric guitar. The magnetic
pickup technology of the electric guitar allows the instrument to be played
very loudly without amplification “feedback.” But when simply applied,
the pickup creates a periodic sound that lacks the overtone enhancement
that acoustic resonators provide. The inventors created modifiers that
electronically added overtones to the periodic sound (Poss, 1998). So we
have loud sounds inducing attentive responses as the added overtones to the
periodic sounds allow the guitar to receive the clearest auditory processing.
They are able to simulate a wide range of timbres that are recognizably
similar to human vocal expressions (such as the harsh, low, threat sounds of
heavy metal music). If the developments are widely appreciated, that is to
say if they commonly trigger emotional responses, then they will be widely
adopted. There are countless examples of affectively selected organization
that may be found in instrument making modifications and compositional
techniques that have been adopted through the centuries of the development
of music.
Habituation
Top 40 radio may be the best indicator that music often does not
lose its appeal despite repeated hearings, that is to say music is generally
resistant to habituation. Habituation may occur when the reticular
activating system allows conscious identification of the source of a
non-threatening sound to effectively disable an attentive response to that
sound. Since it is difficult to imagine a circumstance where habituation to
emotional vocalizations would enhance an individual’s chances for
survival, it seems reasonable to assume that these vocalizations would tend
to be exempt from habituation. Also, the extreme variability of the acoustic
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patterns of emotional voealizations helps to make them resistant to
habituation. Consequently, music that presents acoustic stimuli resembling
emotional vocalizations will also tend to be resistant to habituation. Music
that incorporates constantly changing instrumentation, patterns, and keys
also avoids the repeated recognition required for habituation.
Combined Stimuli
Elements of music must be presented in combination in order for
them to induce sufficient emotional responses to bring about observable
behavioral changes. In a complex and interdependent system it is often
impossible to test the effectiveness of each element separately. For
example, if a human scream consisting of a loud, broadband waveform with
an open vowel at 200-300 Hz triggers an attentive response, this does not
imply that a presentation of a 200-300 Hz signal alone would induce one
quater of that attentive response. A property of auditory recognition at the
neurological level known as combination sensitivity provides that the
response to a given set of acoustic characteristics is greater than the sum of
the responses to each individual characteristic presented independently
(Kanwal et al, 2004). As a result, combined stimuli promote the release and
accumulation of chemicals that may induce an enhanced emotional state in
the listener.
Chaos/Order Polarity
An evaluation of the intervallic relationships and rhythmic
variations found in human emotional vocalizations and tamarin calls in a
variety of affective states indicates the possibility that chaos and order may
be seen as a governing polarity in the structure and sound qualities
contained in mammalian communication and in music. When viewed in the
context of this polarity, Morton’s (1977) motivational structure rules may
be expanded to include intervals and rhythms. Chaos is associated with
threat vocalizations (Wilden et al, 1998) and is expressed not only by
complex overtones, but also by dissonant intervals and irregular rhythms.
Alternatively, whereas order is associated with affdiation and expressed by
simple waveforms, consonant intervals, and regular rhythms.
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Conclusion
The ideas of Human Music - that many of the emotional responses
to music are generated in midbrain structures that are unavailable to
conscious attention, that many of these responses result from recognition of
acoustic templates that were created in the womb and in infancy, and that
some responses are stimulated by the survival instincts of adulthood -
constitute a series of theories that represent a move towards understanding
that music is capable of tapping into a variety of emotional responses to
sounds and connecting humans and nonhumans with their behavioral roots.
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A New Perspective on the Early History of
the American Society for Cybernetics
Elizabeth Corona and Bradley Thomas
Saybrook University and University of Iowa
Participants at the 10 ' Macy Conference (de Rosnay, 2000).
U' row (left to right) T.C. Schneirla, Y. Bar-Hillel, Margaret Mead, Warren S. McCulloch, Jan
Droogleever-Fortuyn, Yuen Ren Chao, W. Grey-Walter, Vahe E. Amassian.; 2"'^ row (left to right)
Leonard J. Savage, Janet Freed Lynch, Gerhardt von Bonin, Lawrence S. Kubie, Lawrence K.
Frank. Henry Quastler, Donald G. Marquis, Heinrich Kluver, F.S.C. Northrop; 3'^'* row (left to
right): Peggy Kubie, Henry Brosin, Gregory Bateson, Frank Fremont-Smith, John R. Bowman,
G.E. Hutchinson, Hans Lukas Teuber, Julian H. Bigelow, Claude Shannon, Walter Pitts, Heinz von
Foerster.
Introduction
The Early History of the Cybernetics Movement in the United
States was marked by widespread difficulties stemming from differences
in opinion and disciplinary background, accompanied by a lack of
willingness to accept different philosophical points of view. In this article
we will explore how, despite these differences, a determined group of
transdisciplinary thinkers - with interests ranging from engineering to
neurophysiology - came together to establish what is now the American
Society for Cybernetics (ASC). Although previous articles have addressed
the history of this group, newly archived documents and correspondence
among the founders of the Society shed light on the difficulties they
encountered in their attempt to define a field of inquiry involving
researchers from many disciplines. The goal of the present article is to use
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these newly archived documents to illuminate the difficulties encountered
by the field of cybernetics in subsequent years.
The term “cybernetics,” as the name for a field of inquiry, was
introduced by Norbert Weiner in his 1948 book titled Cybernetics:
Control and Communication in Animal and Machine. When first hearing
the term, many people today associate it with computers, the internet,
automation, or robotics, if they have heard the term at all. While these
fields are related to cybernetics, the field itself is actually a much broader
area of inquiry into communication and selection behavior in its most
general conception. Although the broad relevance of cybernetics is
suggested by the wide-range of definitions of the field, the lack of a
universally accepted definition of cybernetics has inhibited the field’s
cohesion. In fact, individual interpretations of the field are so varied that
the ASC’s website lists more than 45 definitions of cybernetics (Defining
Cybernetics, n.d.).
Further evidence of this barrier to a unified cybernetics is the title
of the 2008 American Society for Cybernetics annual conference, “My
Cybernetics.” This title acknowledges that each member of the Society
has a different understanding of the field and different reasons for being
interested in it. The multiplicity of views can be attributed to the highly
diverse nature of the ACS’s membership. The Society attracts people
from a wide range of disciplines - such as art and music, physics,
mathematics, psychotherapy, and management. The systems of interest are
specific to each given discipline, but the underlying concepts are the same.
The essentially universal nature of communication, modeling, and
selection processes makes it possible for people from many disciplines to
find common ground. However, at the same time, the vast range of inquiry
makes some people uncomfortable, since such a broad field can
sometimes be interpreted as lacking focus. For all of these reasons,
cybernetics ultimately resists a unified definition.
The Rise of Cybernetics
The early history of cybernetics in the United States can be traced
back to the end of World War II and the start of the Cold War. During the
early years of the Cold War, the Josiah Macy Foundation in New York
City held a series of conferences that are now known simply as the Macy
Conferences on Cybernetics (Pias, 2003). Between 1946 and 1953, the
Foundation held ten conferences which included specialized topics such as
“Teleological Mechanisms in Society” and “Teleological Mechanisms and
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Circular Causal Systems” (Stewart, 2000). However, after the publication
of Wiener’s 1948 book, all of the Macy conferences that were held
focused simply on the topic of “Cybernetics: Circular Causal and
Feedback Mechanisms in Biological and Social Systems” (Stewart, 2000;
Umpleby, 2005). Some of the conference participants who would later
lead the eybemetics movement were: Warren McCulloch, Heinz von
Foerster, Julian Bigelow, Lawrence Frank, Margaret Mead, Gregory
Bateson, Norbert Weiner, John von Neumann, Ross Ashby, Arturo
Rosenblueth, and Lawrence Kubie (Umpleby, 2005). Many of these
luminaries were present at the inaugural dinner for the ASC in 1964.
During the 1940s, 50s, and 60s, cyberneticians focused largely on
engineering, control, and regulation in humans and machines, as well as
communication and circularity (Foundations, n.d.; Umpleby, July 2006c).
This became known as first-order cybernetics. The interdisciplinary nature
of cybernetics was quite unusual during this period because many
disciplines - such as physics, medicine, and the humanities - were
becoming more specialized. However, although cybernetics was
interdisciplinary, it was by no means unified. Each splinter group focused
on its own interest and applied cybernetic theories and concepts for its
own purposes. The diverging interests of these groups are part of the
reason why cybernetics as a field lacked cohesion.
The 40s and 50s saw the development of the Society for General
Systems Research (now the International Society for the Systems Sciences
(ISSS)) and the American Society for Cybernetics (ASC) (de Rosnay,
2000). During the late 1950s the group of cyberneticians that were focused
on robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) split off (Umpleby, July 2006c).
Those that remained under the name cybernetics were more focused on
neurophysiology and social systems. When these fields also split from
cybernetics, in the late 1950s, the amalgam of interested parties left failed
to form well a defined group around common interests. These tumultuous
early years, however, did not prevent cybernetic organizations from
thriving during the 1960s.
By the 1970s, the focus of the cybernetics movement shifted to
second-order cybernetics, or biological cybernetics, which focuses on the
role of the observer (Foundations, n.d.; Umpleby, July 2006c). In the more
recent past, some cyberneticians have focused on social cybernetics, or the
interaction between ideas and social systems (Umpleby, 2001). For a
breakdown of the three primary areas that cybernetics has focused on over
the past half century see Table 1 .
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Table 1: Three branches of cybernetics, adapted from Umpleby (1990).
Recent interest in such fields as chaos theory and complexity has,
in many respects, drawn interest away from cybernetics, possibly because
of an overlap in research and interests, combined with relatively better
defined fields of inquiry. Often the overlap with cybernetics is not
recognized. For instance, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
in 2008 hosted its 8 annual symposium on Understanding Complex
Systems. At this symposium many of the participants were introduced to
the work of the Biological Computer Laboratory (BCL) for the first time,
despite the BCL’s having worked on many of the same issues that are
currently of interest to complexity theorists (personal communication,
Stuart Umpleby, August 7, 2008). Ironically, the BCL was founded in the
1950s by cybernetician Heinz von Foerster and was located just a few
blocks from the building where the conference was being held.
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Early Leadership of the ASC
In the early 1960’s the founders of the American Society for
Cybernetics (ASC) recognized the rising interest in systems level concepts
across many disciplines and formed the ASC to serve and unite this
diverse group. As we will discuss, the leadership during the formation of
the ASC played a critical role in how the purposes, structure, and culture
of the society developed. One of the most active early members of the
ASC was Dr. Paul S. Henshaw, who served as the Acting Chairman of the
Board during the ASC’s infancy. Other active members included: Warren
McCulloch, Frank Fremont-Smith, John Dixon, and Jack Ford. Below is a
list of Honorary Founders of the American Society for Cybernetics (ASC
Archives, n.d., document #12):
Julian Bigelow, Institute for Advanced Studies
Frank Fremont-Smith, New York Academy of Science
Herman Goldstine, International Business Machine Corporation
Yuk Wing Lee, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Warren McCulloch, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Oskar Morgenstem, Princeton University
Filmer Stuart Cuckow Northrop, Yale University
Francis O. Schmitt, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Hans Lukas Teuber, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Heinz von Foerster, University of Illinois
Correspondence in the ASC archives indicates that the founding
members encountered great difficulty in coming to an agreement on the
Society’s goals, mission, structure, and leadership, including whether to
view cybernetics as an art or a science (ASC Archives, n.d., documents
#2, #3, and #4). For instance, when referring to the early members and
fundraisers of the ASC, Paul Henshaw stated, “people want to know what
the new organization is to do - what its goals are, and indeed what its
mission is” (ASC Archives, n.d., document #3).
The ASC was incorporated on July 31, 1964 and held an inaugural
dinner on October, 16, 1964 at the Cosmos Club in Washington, DC.
However, the society was by no means well defined at this point (ASC
Archives, n.d., documents #1A and #1D). The founders desired to
introduce the newly formed organization to members and the public with a
major conference on Cybernetics (ASC Archives, document #1B). In
November 1964, the ASC assisted several Washington, DC-area
universities in organizing a symposium on cybernetics and society
(Dechert, 1966). However, it was almost two years before the nascent
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society formally elected its first President, and the ASC did not hold its
own full conference until 1968, nearly four years after its incorporation
(Umpleby, 2005). During this time there was much ado about the nature of
cybernetics as a field and the purpose and function of the Society, as well
as its leadership and long and short term plans.
Selecting a Leader
Six months after incorporation, the founding members
unsuccessfully attempted to recruit Julian Bigelow as the first president of
the ASC. It is relevant that Bigelow was an engineer, while many others in
the young field came from humanities like philosophy. A few years
before, in 1959, Charles Percy Snow gave his seminal Rede Lecture, “The
Two Cultures,” in which he lamented the divide between the sciences and
humanities (Snow, 1961). Against this background, Bigelow understood
that the interdisciplinary nature of cybernetics would impede the
formation of the society, since at the time there was not a cohesive
cybernetics field within the academic community for the society to serve,
a fact that was recognized by the society’s founders as well.
Accordingly, Bigelow would not even consider the offer to become
ASC president until the ASC addressed his concerns, outlined in a March
1965 letter to Paul Henshaw and the ASC Board (ASC Archives, n.d.,
document #7):
(1) “...Recognition of prevailing processes, and valuable referential
usage [of the term cybernetics] does not in my opinion establish
the proposition that “Cybernetics” is the name of a well-defined
discipline or branch of science, or of engineering, or even of
philosophy.”
(2) “We do not have a well-defined disciplinary area, we do not have a
living scientific literature within the U.S.A., and in consequence of
these facts we do not have a clear basis for recruiting members and
setting rational criteria for admission.”
Bigelow was clearly concerned about the prospects of forming a coherent
field of inquiry from such a vast, interdisciplinary ground. Based on these
worries, he suggested two courses of action for the formation of the ASC:
( 1 ) Move forward with the ASC without further concern for the lack
of a well defined disciplinary area and “adopt the policy of
admitting to membership any persons who express an interest in
joining”; or
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(2) Wait to move forward until determining “whether there is a
disciplinary area or technical need of some structurable sort within
which the ASC could hope to survive as a scientific society, and
could hope to fulfill a worthwhile mission.”
While he acknowledged that the first option held some value, he strongly
supported the second because he didn’t think the first would result in an
academic society capable of contributing to understanding, but would
rather be a sort of club or social gathering forum for people with similar
interests. Bigelow indicated that if they were to proceed under the first it
would be a “grueling and inefficient process for which I simply do not
have time available” (ASC Archives, n.d., document #7).
Bigelow went on to outline his vision for moving forward:
(1) Transition the founding members into an “active role in the
planning of the next phases of the Society’s activity.”
(2) Gather extensive outside expert opinions from the academic
disciplines “spanned” by Cybernetics to determine if the
“formation and promotion of an active Society for Cybernetics
would serve a useful function in their particular area at this time.”
In recommending this course, Bigelow was hoping the ASC would lay a
foundation for a unified field of cybernetics, with systems level thinkers
from varied disciplines coming together to make progress in cybernetics
that could then be applied to systems phenomena.
Throughout 1965, the ASC leadership focused on the lack of
clarity in the society. The group agreed that the term cybernetics was still
not sufficiently defined and that there was a need for coherent language.
Membership was still lagging, thus they decided to focus on getting
younger researchers involved and on broadening membership acceptance
to non- Americans.
Little ASC correspondence exists regarding activities during the
remainder of 1965 through May 1966. The correspondence that does exist
suggests that the society went through two distinct phases after receiving
Bigelow’s suggestions. Initially, from April - August 1965 they
unsuccessfully endeavored to act upon Bigelow’s recommendations. They
called the founding members together for an August 1965 board meeting
entitled “Shall we go forward or terminate?” The agenda for the meeting
included the still pressing need “to determine just what is the purpose of
ASC?” and to outline membership criteria. These agenda items clearly
show that the Board recognized the importance of Bigelow’s concerns.
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although there is no evidence of any clear consensus on these issues
following the meeting.
Nonetheless, despite the apparent lack of consensus on the purpose
of the ASC, some of the founding members looked to transition into a
more active role, as suggested by Bigelow. This is reflected in a stem
letter of disapproval from Jack Ford to the ASC Board dated October 1,
1965, in which he states:
It is time to face the fact that we are a corporate body made
of separate and coequal mature members with legal and
ethical obligations to our membership and founders and
that we have a set of operational mles by which we must
function in fulfilling these obligations. These facts must be
realized by each and every one of us if we are to reestablish
the integrity of the Board... and if we are to appear as a
group of responsible directors aware of our duties to, and
respect for, the membership and - it is to be hoped - one
another.” (ASC Archives, n.d., document #9).
However, there were no responses to Ford’s letter found in the
ASC’s files kept by John Dixon, who served as Correspondence Secretary
at the time. In fact, no correspondence could be found dating between
October 1965 and June 1966.
Then, in June 1966, the ASC announced the selection of Warren
McCulloch as their first President. McCulloch was a philosopher,
psychologist, medical doctor, and most famously a neurophysiologist.
Considering McCulloch’s interdisciplinary inclinations, he was likely less
appreciative of Bigelow’s concerns. Based on this abrupt shift and
correspondence thereafter, one can assume that the leadership proceeded
in opposition to Bigelow’s preferred course of action. Evidence for this is
largely negative — that is, based on what the Society did not do. As far as
the records indicate, they did not clearly define the ASC or membership
criteria, nor did they poll experts in the field; what they did was to forge
ahead without consensus on the concerns raised by Bigelow.
With its first president secured and its course set, the ASC began
pushing to establish its stmcture more definitively. McCulloch
reorganized the administrative leadership, separating the powers of the
Board and Executive Committee - as had been proposed some time
earlier. Additionally, Henshaw resigned from the Board shortly after
McCulloch became President, which is likely explained by early
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correspondence indicating that there was tension between the two (ASC
Archives, n.d., documents #2 and #13). Henshaw was replaced with Heinz
von Foerster as the Board’s Director and Lawrence Fogel was named
Vice- President.
Moving Forward
McCulloch immediately established five standing committees (1)
By-laws and Constitution - which were immediately revised, (2) Program,
(3) Membership, (4) Finance, and (5) Public Affairs (ASC Archives, n.d.,
document #14). He also set out to establish a Scientific Council and a
Council of Fellows (it is unclear if this ever took hold). By August 1965
the rejuvenated ASC began appealing to various institutions for assistance
in establishing cybernetic programs and publications. The ASC received
support from the National Science Foundation for the establishment of a
cybernetics journal, which became known as the Journal of Cybernetics
(now Cybernetics and Systems: An International Journal) (Umpleby,
2006a). Also, the Society proposed to establish conference programs on
cybernetics in conjunction with the Josiah Macy, Jr. Foundation and the
Rockefeller Foundation. Both proposals were denied, as were other
conference proposals - primarily on the grounds that the ASC was not
specific enough in its goals, definition of the field, and conference topics.
Between 1966 and 1978 correspondence and activity waned once
again. Few records exist about the ASC’s activities during this period. It
is known that in its first 10 years the ASC held at least five conferences on
the topics of Purposive Systems, 1968; Cybernetics and the Management
of Large Systems, 1969; Cybernetics, Simulation and Conflict Resolution,
1971; Cybernetics, Artificial Intelligence, and Ecology, 1972; and
Communication and Control in Social Processes, 1974. The group
produced the Journal of Cybernetics for several years. Additional
publishing efforts included Communications of the ASC, Cybernetics
Forum, and the Journal of Cybernetics and Information Science. The
Journal of Cybernetics is now Cybernetics and Systems: An International
Journal (Umpleby, 2006a). However, the other early publications have all
been discontinued.
During this period of inactivity, a disagreement with ASC
leadership caused a group to split off from the ASC (Umpleby, 2005).
This group went on to form another organization, the American
Cybernetics Association (ACA), which was based in Philadelphia, PA
(Umpleby, July 2006b). As you can see, the field of cybernetics was in a
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constant state of flux and dissolution, with many groups breaking away.
This repeated disbanding reveals the state of discontent and disagreement
among cyberneticians.
In the summer of 1979, talk began of resurrecting the inactive
ASC. Membership numbers were still a concern and the group
acknowledged that if it could not generate enough members, it would
likely become an interest group within the Society for General Systems
Research. With this in mind, Barry Clemson, then President of the ASC,
convinced the AC A to join back together with the ASC. The new
organization retained the ASC name, but used the ACA’s by-laws.
In 1980, Stuart Umpleby became president of the restored ASC.
His Vice President was Doreen Steg, the former President of the ACA.
Umpleby saw his task as improving the management of the ASC, while
Heinz von Foerster, a member of the Board of Trustees, provided
scientific direction (Umpleby, 1981). During the fall of 1981, the ASC
held its first annual meeting in seven years (Umpleby, July 2006b). A
second conference was held in 1982.
Differences in Perspective
Tying this early history together, a picture emerges in which the
formation of the ASC was hampered by the contrast between two
perspectives on the interdisciplinary nature of cybernetics, stemming from
the early leadership’s diverging views on the value and function of
interdisciplinary communities. One perspective, that championed by
Bigelow and held by engineers and physical scientists (such as Henshaw),
saw the interdisciplinarity as an impediment to the formation of a unified
field, which would need to be united by a coherent language and common
interests. Supporters of this perspective appeared to believe this
impediment could be overcome, although it is not clear if that would be
done at the expense of or in the name of interdisciplinarity. In contrast,
interdisciplinarity was welcomed by McCulloch and other cyberneticians
with strong humanities backgrounds, who were under the impression that
the unification of cybernetics would follow without significant difficulty
due to the common interests of those in the field.
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The ASC Today
The early differenees in perspective on cybernetics have carried
through to the present day. As the focus of the ASC and cybernetics
shifted to second order cybernetics in the 1970s, many engineers left the
ASC and moved toward computer science, artificial intelligence, robotics,
and control systems engineering. The technical aspects of cybernetics have
been developed in these fields, while the ASC has made contributions to
psychotherapy, management, education, biology, and philosophy.
Looking at the ASC today, the question must be asked, what
progress toward a unified cybernetics has been made in the last 40 years?
The early leadership of the ASC moved forward without a clear definition
or cohesive language, apparently in the hopes that these would develop in
the Society’s future. One could argue that the opposite appears to have
happened - cybernetics has become a distributed topic of research applied
to and developed within a wide range of specific fields, but it is still
struggling to create a coherent field of its own. The ongoing struggle of
the ASC to recruit new members confirms the limited success of the
organization in building membership or addressing in the needs of existing
members. The effort to define a coherent and unified field of inquiry
continues, so far without much success. Additionally, the literature and
language used remains highly differentiated (Umpleby & Dent, 1999).
However, several cybernetics journals continue to prosper, largely due to
an increasing number of articles by scholars from other countries.
In 2005, the leadership of the ASC, seeking to ascertain the
developing needs of the cybernetics community, conducted a survey of its
members to assist in determining the future direction of the Society. The
survey’s results were clear: the membership felt conflicted about the value
the ASC as an organization provided (Corona & Umpleby, 2006). This
information was presented to the officers, along with a full report that laid
out a framework for increasing the effectiveness of the organization and
ways to take action on the areas of most concern for ASC members - such
as by having a more clearly defined agenda for conferences, including new
content and presenters from year to year, increasing access to resources
and educational materials, and improving communication, both between
members and between members and ASC administrators (Corona &
Umpleby, 2006).
The survey report was, for the most part, disregarded and the group
continued to operate much as before with little involvement by members,
for example in organizing local chapters. It should also be noted that a
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similar survey and report was produced by students in 2001 and was also
largely ignored (Francis, Doherty, Nsenkyire, Nsenkyire, & Makani,
2001).
At a recent meeting of the George Washington University seminar
on reflexive systems participants contemplated the need to move beyond
debating definitions and terminology. The group reflected on how the
need to reach consensus on terminology has been an enduring problem for
the various fields of systems thinking, such as cybernetics, systems
dynamics, complexity, and chaos theory. The group concluded that a large
part of the problem stems from the interdisciplinary nature of the field.
Our research into the early history of the ASC strongly supports this
conclusion.
As a way forward, we suggest that the Officers of the ASC
examine other interdisciplinary fields of study that have experienced
difficulties for successes and failures. This will help determine what best
practices exist for achieving interdisciplinary success, many of which will
likely overlap with the recommendations made in the 2005 survey
mentioned above.
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References
ASC Archives, (n.d.). The archives of the American Society for Cybernetics (ASC) 1960-
1988: Stuart Umpleby collection.
Corona, E., & Umpleby, S. (2006). American Society for Cybernetics 2005 Membership
Survey. Unpublished manuscript, George Washington University, Washington, DC.
de Rosnay, J. (2000). History of Cybernetics and Systems Science. In F. Heylighen, C.
Joslyn, & V. Turchin (Eds.), Principia Cybernetica Web (Principia Cybernetica,
Brussels). Retrieved from http://pespmcl.vub.ac.be/CYBSHIST.html
Dechert, C. R. (Ed.) (1966). The Social Impact of Cybernetics (Papers presented at a
Symposium on Cybernetics and Society, Washington, DC, November 1964, under
the sponsorship of Georgetown University, American University, and George
Washington University, with the cooperation of the American Society of
Cybernetics). Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press, 1966/New York:
Clarion/Simon & Schuster, 1967.
Defining Cybernetics, (n.d). Retrieved February 11, 2008 from http://www.asc-
cybemetics.org/foundations/defmitions.htm
Dent, E. B., & Umpleby, S. (1998). Underlying Assumptions of Several Traditions in
Systems Science. In Robert Trappl (Ed), Cybernetic and Systems ’98 (pp. 513-518).
Vienna, Austria: Austrian Society for Cybernetic Studies.
Foundations, (n.d.). Retrieved February 22, 2008 from http://www.asc-
cybemetics.org/foundations/history . htm
Francis, A.L., Doherty, J., Nsenkyire, C., Nsenkyire, J., & Makani, F. (2001). Assisting
the American Society for Cybernetics (ASC) in Development Initiatives. Unpublished
manuscript, George Washington University, Washington, DC.
Pias, C. (Ed.). (2003). Cybernetics \ Kybernetik. The Macy-Conferences 1946-1953.
Reprint of the conferences originally edited by Heinz von Foerster 1949-1953.
Zurich/Berlin: Diaphanes.
Snow, C. P. (1961). The Two Cultures and the Scientific Revolution: The Rede Lecture
1959. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Stewart, D. S. (2000). An essay on the Origins of Cybernetics. Retrieved February 22,
2008 from http://www.hfr.org.uk/cybemetics-pages/origins.htm
Umpleby, S. (1981). The 1980 Planning Conference of the American Society for
Cybernetics. Cybernetics Forum, 10(1).
Umpleby, S. (1990). The Science of Cybernetics and the Cybernetics of Science.
Cybernetics and Systems, 21(1), 1 09- 121.
Umpleby, S. (2001). What comes after second order cybernetics? Cybernetics and
Human Knowing, 8(3), 87-89.
Umpleby, S. (2005). A history of the cybernetics movement in the United States. Journal
of the Washington Academy of Sciences, 9 1 (2), 54-66.
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Umpleby, S. (2006a). A history of ASC journals. Retrieved March 10, 2008 from (a
password protected site for access only by the Officers of the ASC, special access
was given) http://www.gwu.edu/~asc/Information_ASC/information_asc.htmI
Umpleby, S. (2006b). ASC administrative history 1979-1982. Retrieved March 10, 2008
from (a password protected site for access only by the Officers of the ASC, special
access was given) http://www.gwu.edu/~asc/Information_ASC/information_asc.html
Umpleby, S. (2006c). Fundamentals and history of cybernetics: Development of the
theory of complex adaptive systems. Paper presented in Orlando, FL, July 2006.
Retrieved February 4, 2008 from
http://www.gwu.eduy~umpleby/cybemetics/index.html
Umpleby, S. & Dent, E. (1999). The origins and purposes of several traditions in systems
theory and cybernetics. Cybernetics and Systems: An international journal, 30, 79-
103.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Air Traffic Controller Workload: Estimating Look-Ahead
Conflict Detection Counts
Nastaran Coleman and Ellis Feldman
Federal Aviation Administration
Abstract
The number of potential conflicts which must be detected and resolved between
pairs of aircraft reflects sector complexity in the en route environment. It also
contributes to air traffic controller workload. A linear programming model was
developed in ILOG/OPL to detect potential conflicts between any two aircraft,
taking positional uncertainties into account. A set of rules was defined to filter
out aircraft pairs having no chance of a conflict. This reduced the number of
linear programming iterations from hundreds of millions to tens of thousands.
Processing time was further reduced by preventing memory leaks in the
modeling environment.
Introduction
The U.S. Nation Airspace System (NAS) is the largest, busiest, and
most complex and technologically advanced aviation operation in the
word. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is responsible for
providing the NAS infrastructure to support all air operations within the
United States and certain oceanic areas. This responsibility includes air
traffic control services. Air traffic control (ATC) is a service provided by
ground-based controllers who direct aircraft on the ground and in the air.
The primary purpose of ATC systems worldwide is to separate aircraft to
prevent collisions, to organize and expedite the flow of traffic, and to
provide information and other support for pilots when able.
Air traffic controllers work in different type of facilities: Control
towers. Terminal Radar Approach Control Centers (TRACONs) and Air
Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs), hereafter “Centers.” In this
paper, we focus on en route air traffic controllers. Centers control aircraft
from the time they depart from an airport or terminal area’s airspace to the
time they arrive at another airport or terminal area's airspace. Each Center
covers many thousands of square miles of airspace above 18,000 feet.
Each en route Center is divided into an average of 40 sectors.
Determining the workload of an air traffic controller has been a
topic of research for many years. Elistorically, workload and staffing
requirements have been based on traffic volume. Although volume is a
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36
large contributor to workload, it can be argued that traffic in some sectors
is more complex than at others, thereby adding to workload even if the
volume is held constant. A more complex sector will have a greater
number of potential conflicts which must be detected and resolved, for a
given look-ahead time, X minutes in the future.
The objective of this analysis is to find a way to approximate the
number of potential conflicts in the next X minutes in a sector, and to use
that to assign a complexity level to that sector. Finding all sectors’
complexities under different conditions such as current and future
separation minima, weather and traffic volume, and seasonal effects are
some of the uses of this approximation technique. The approximations are
not intended for operational use in any en route automation system. An
additional objective is that any computer model incorporating the
approximations should be capable of the entire National Airspace System
(NAS) at all hours of any day quickly and efficiently.
Many automated conflict detection and resolution algorithms exist
within various automation tools, one such tool is URET^ Similarly, many
fast-time simulation models use algorithms to detect potential look-ahead
conflicts, one such model is RAMS^. Most of these algorithms use a 4-D
trajectory — x, y, z (position) and / (time) — for aircraft position in the
near future. Aircraft pairs whose trajectories violate vertical or horizontal
separations are flagged. The models assume some level of uncertainty
around the predicted positions of the aircraft. Our model to determine
potential conflicts among aircraft pairs follows Niedringhaus [1].
The number of linear programs to find potential conflicts increases
exponentially as the number of potential aircraft increases. The
contributions of this paper include:
1. Establishing techniques to calculate the number of potential look-
ahead conflicts for the entire NAS in a reasonable time. Filtering
out aircraft pairs that have no chance for potential conflict
becomes a significant part of this process.
2. Modifying the Niedringhaus [1] algorithm to incorporate
uncertainty.
' User Request Evaluation Tool. For more information see
http://hftc.faa.gov/capabilities/uret.htm.
^ Reorganized A TC Mathematical Simulator. For more infomiation see
http://web.mit.edu/aeroastro/www/labs/AATT/reviews/rams.html.
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A linear program is created to predict a possible conflict between
any two aircraft. As in Niedringhaus [1], aircraft are assumed to follow
their nominal predicted paths for the next X minutes. That is, for the next
X minutes of look-ahead time (typically, ten minutes), the ground speed,
heading, climb and descent rates remain unchanged, and the aircraft fly
within specified uncertainty limits. An aircraft pair has a possible conflict
if the aircraft are predicted to come within a parameter separation
(horizontally and vertically) during this time.
Linear Program Solution Description
Following Niedringhaus [1], we define an aircraft’s 4-D trajectory by
mapping xyz^-space to grz/-space, where
g (for longitudinal) represents the aircraft’s direction of flight,
r (for lateral) represents the direction perpendicular to g.
z represents altitude.
An uncertainty box is attached to each aircraft at the start of the
longitudinal segment it must traverse during a given look-ahead interval.
Two aircraft have a potential conflict if they are predicted to approach
within a parameter separation (horizontally and vertically) within the look-
ahead interval. The uncertainty bounds are defined in terms of required
minimum horizontal and vertical separations. Furthermore, uncertainty
grows as the aircraft traverse their look-ahead segments. Thus, one can
envision each aircraft as moving within a three-dimensional funnel-shaped
box, as depicted in Figure 1.
The form AUb is used to indicate uncertainty, where A takes the
values Z, R, and T to specify altitude, the lateral dimension, and time,
respectively; U stands for the uncertainty and b takes the values p (positive
for above the centerline) and n (negative for below the centerline),
respectively. For example, the box extends to ZUp above its centerline and
ZUn below it.
^ Inequalities (12a) through (12d): These provide for growth in the dimensions of the
uncertainty box attached to each aircraft as it traverses a longitudinal segment,
Niedringhaus! 1].
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Figure 1; Uncertainty aircraft box padded with buffer: Uncertainty grows as time
increases
For each of the aircraft in a pair, define the initial offsets in altitude
and time as and Tk, k = 1,2. If neither the altitude uncertainty bounds
nor the altitude grow with g as the segment is traversed, a pair of aircraft
flying at common altitude z would satisfy the inequalities
-ZU„ -dZU„dG, <z-Z, <ZU^ +dZU^dG, for^ = 1,2 (1)
The form dVdX is used to indicate the change in the nominal value of a
variable Y with respect to the nominal value of another variable X. For
example, dZUndG represents the change in altitude uncertainty with
respect to longitude G. With the exception that the lateral offset remains
zero, analogous inequalities can be defined for the lateral and time
dimensions.
Two aircraft are in potential conflict if their uncertainty boxes
overlap during the look-ahead interval. This is equivalent to the existence
of a feasible solution to the set of inequalities below. Tinear programming
can be used to solve for the earliest or latest time t at which a solution
exists.
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Minimize t
Subject to constraints
-RU„ -dRU^,dG,*g, ,„„ < < RU^,+dRU/G,
-ZU„ - dZU^dG, * g, < (z - Z, ) + dZdG, * g,,„„ < ZU^, + dZU/G, * g,
- dTU,„dG, * g^ <(^t-T,)- dTdG, * g, + dTU,/G, * g,
0 ^ ^ Speed, * X
= cos ^ * r, + sin * g,
= - sin ^ * r, + cos * g,
= cos ^ * (r^ ) + sin 6 * (g^ - R^ )
S2,nu = - sin Z) * - R^) + cos b* (g^ )
where
z is the common altitude dimension,
t is the common time dimension,
mit is the lateral dimension for aircraft k,
Sk imt is the longitudinal dimension for aircraft k,
h final is the common lateral coordinate for aircraft k, and
Sk final is the common longitudinal coordinate for aircraft k.
The inputs are
Zk the initial altitude of aircraft k at time Tf,
Tic the starting time,
X the length of the look-ahead time,
R the initial distance between aircraft 1 and 2 at time T , and
R^ and are the values along the r and g axes, respectively.
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The following input variables are subscripted p for positive and n for
negative:
RUn{RUp) is the negative (positive) horizontal uncertainty measured
as 14 horizontal minimum separation. The default setting is
2.5 (2.5) miles.
ZUn {ZU^) is the negative (positive) vertical uncertainty measured as a
function of vertical minimum separation
Tf/kn (Tt/kp) is the negative (positive) time uncertainty measured as
speed
dRUdG\^{dRUdG\^^) is the negative (positive) rate of horizontal
uncertainty growth (z.e. latitude).
This is measured as
h _ buffer /(2 * Seg _ distance )
where
Seg __ distance,^ = Speed * X
and
hjDuffer is the horizontal buffer used in uncertainty growth rate with
a default of 3 miles,
vjjuffer is the vertical buffer used in uncertainty growth rate,
Speedy is the speed of aircraft k at time T, and
dZUdGy is the rate of growth in vertical {i.e., altitude) uncertainty
(the subscripts n and p onU are suppressed).
This is measured as
V _ buffer /(2 * Seg _ distance,^ )
where
dTUdGy is the rate of uncertainty growth in time (aircraft arriving
late or early; the subscripts n and p onU are suppressed).
This is measured as
h _ buffer /(2 * speed * segjdistance,^ ) ;
dZdG/^ is defined as dZdT,^ * dtdG,^ where dZdT,^ is the change in
altitude relative to time, defined as the difference between
the exit and entry altitudes for the previous sector divided
Washington Academy of Sciences
41
by the difference between entry and exit time to previous
sector and dTdGj^ is the reciprocal of nominal ground
speed for aircraft k\
b is the direction of travel or aircraft heading (north = nil and
east = 0), calculated by
f
mod
atan2
V
^sin(lon2 - lon,)cos(lat2),cos(latj)sin(lat2)^
sin(lat j ) cos(lat2 ) cos(lon2 - Ion, ) ^
,ln
J
where
lah is the latitude of aircraft k,
lonA: is the longitude of aircraft k, and
atan2(x,y) is the arctangent, or inverse tangent of y/x, with the
additional feature of finding the proper quadrant in which
the angle belongs based on the signs of x and y. This is the
usage implemented in Excel®. Reference DR MATH [2].
Finally, our analysis does not penalize flight levels already
separated by 1000 feet, and assumes that vertical minimum separations
plus vertical buffer add-up to Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum
(RVSM).
Conflict Detection Process
For all aircraft, the conflict detection process proceeds according to the
following steps:
1. PDARS"* data provide aircraft entry and exit times, locations
(latitude, longitude, altitude) and ground speeds for all sectors.
a. These are used to calculate headings and climb and descent
rates.
b. Aircraft are assumed to continue on their headings and their
climb/descent rates in the look-ahead time period.
2. Within a Center, for every aircraft entering a sector, find possible
conflicts with other aircraft in the next X minutes.
a. The number of linear programming runs can be enormous:
hundreds of millions for one center and one day. To
mitigate this problem, filtering techniques, described in the
Performance Data and Analysis Reporting System. For more information see
http://www.atac.com/Proiects Providers-a.html
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following Section, are used to exclude aircraft pairs that
have no possibility of conflict.
b. The linear programming algorithm described in the
previous Section is run iteratively for all pairs of aircraft
that have not been filtered out in step 2a.
c. The same aircraft will likely enter more than one sector
within a Center. Step 2 is repeated each time an aircraft
enters a new sector within a Center.
To further reduce processing times, additional adjustments were made,
including creating batch files in OPL,^ as well tweaking various
parameters within the model to speed up run times and prevent OPT
memory leaks. Approximately three minutes are required to generate a list
of possible conflicts for a single Center over one day.
Filtering inputs
We needed to establish a technique to calculate the number of
potential look-ahead conflicts for the entire NAS in a reasonable time.
Filtering out aircraft pairs that had no chance for potential conflict became
a significant part of this process. This was necessary because aircraft enter
a sector within a Center approximately 25,000 times per day. If one were
to consider all possible aircraft pairings, this would require examining
25,000^ = 625,000,000 pairs per Center per day. Since the NAS has 20
Centers, obtaining the number of potential look-ahead conflicts for one
day would require running a linear program over ten billion times, an
onerous task given current CPU speeds. Instead, we developed a set of
heuristics to filter out aircraft pairs that had no chance for conflict:
1. When the look-ahead time is 10 minutes, then aircraft 1 entering
sector Z at time T\ can be in conflict with only those aircraft
entering sector Z between times T\ and U + 10. This filter assumes
that aircraft flying in adjacent sectors during the period T\ to U +
10 will never have a potential conflict. We may revisit this
assumption in future work.
2. Exclude aircraft pairs leveled off at different altitudes.
3. Calculate the position P| of aircraft 1 at time 72, the time the
second “intruder” aircraft enters sector Z. The latter’s position
vector is Pz; its relative position is Pr = Pz ~ Pi- The velocity
vectors of the two aircraft are Vi and Vz, respectively. The intruder
5
Optimization Programming Language (OPL), a linear programming package.
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has relative velocity Vr = V2 ~ Vj. Exclude the intruder from
further consideration if its estimated distance exceeds the
horizontal minima plus the horizontal buffer, and the projection of
relative velocity on relative position vector is nonnegative, that is,
the dot product Vr • Pr> 0. In this case the range remains at least
Do = ||Pr||. a geometric interpretation of this scenario appears in
Figure 2.
4. Similarly, exclude aircraft pairs when the distance between them,
D{t) over the next 10 minutes always exceeds 8 miles. This
accommodates the worst-case scenario where pairs head directly at
each other.
5. If the head-on filter does not exclude the pair, compute the closest
point of approach, Dmm- It occurs at time t = [Pr*Vr]/||Vr|| ; hence
/V
Dmm - IIPr + Vr^ ||. Provided that Dmm > 8 miles, the pair can be
excluded.
6. If aircraft 1 or 2 is climbing or descending, calculate the estimated
altitude of aircraft 1 at time Tj ± 20 seconds. If the altitude
difference is greater than 1000 feet and increasing in time, then
exclude the aircraft pair.
Figure 2: The projection of Vr =V2 - V, on Pr = P2 - P, lies in right half plane if Vr-
Pr>0. In this case, the range between the two aircraft remains at least as large as the
norm ||Pr||.
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In our analysis, applying the above filters reduced the number of aircraft
pairs to be examined from 625,000,000 to 40,000 for one Center.
Processing time
Processing input data and applying filters described above are done
in MS Access®. Consecutive linear programs are run in OPL in batch
mode. Consecutive linear programming runs required from three to five
minutes of run time to obtain the number of potential conflicts per Center
for one day. The run time increases nonlinearly as the number of linear
programs grows in our batch files. This suggests that memory usage by
OPT is suboptimal and a memory leak might still be present. Run times
will improve even further, if further investigation finds and fixes a
memory leak.
Results Error Bounds
In our model, aircraft are assumed to follow their nominal
predicted paths for the next X minutes. That is, for the next X minutes of
look-ahead time (typically, ten minutes), the ground speed, heading, climb
and descent rates remain unchanged and the aircraft fly within specified
uncertainty limits. This simplified assumption is the root of potential
errors in determining the actual number of potential conflicts.
Furthermore, the rate of uncertainty growth is assumed to be linear,
causing more potential errors.
Establishing an error bound for the estimated number of potential
look-ahead conflicts is not an easy task as there is no easy way to actually
count look-ahead conflicts for a sample day and region. One can only
compare the results obtained by this algorithm to other models that detect
future conflicts. Our model produces fewer conflicts than some of other
existing algorithms. This could be explained by the fact that the advisory
systems that are currently available to air traffic controllers tend to
generate large numbers of false positives. These systems are designed to
almost never miss a potential conflict, thereby causing an increase in false
positives.
Applications
Many questions can be answered using this model. This model can
assess the number of look-ahead conflicts by sector using current and
future traffic levels. The number of look-ahead conflicts is one of the
factors determining sector complexity used in determining sector
workload and associated staffing standards.
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Other applications include:
1. Assessing the benefits of a new technology. For example, future
surveillance based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance-
Broadcast (ADS-B) will increase speed and position accuracy
which could result in reduction in buffer size while deconflicting
aircraft. Look-ahead conflict detection could estimate potential
benefits of reduced predicted conflicts.
2. Assessing the effect of changes in en route horizontal separations
minima on controller workload.
Summary
The number of look-ahead conflicts detected and resolved is one
factor determining sector complexity and air traffic controller workload.
We developed and implemented a model to implement an A minute look-
ahead conflict detection for all sectors, where X is user-defined. We
further applied many filtering techniques to enable fast, efficient
execution. This model can be used to estimate the effects of new
technology on sector complexity.
References
1 . Niedringhaus, William P. A linear Programming Solution for
Conflict Detection and for AERA 3 ’s Maneuver Option Manager
(MOM), May 1990, The Mitre Corporation.
2. Dr MATH, “Bearing between two points,” The Math Forum ASK
DR. MATH, Questions and answers from our archives
http://web.archive.Org/web/20080802222353/http://mathforum.org
/library/drmath/view/554 17.html (Accessed July 7, 2010).
Summer 2010
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Washington Academy of Sciences
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A Digital-Discrete Method For Smooth-Continuous Data
Reconstruction
Li Chen
Department of Computer Science and Information Technology
University of the District of Columbia
Abstract
A systematic digital-discrete method for obtaining continuous functions with
smoothness to a certain order (C"') from sample data is designed. This method
is based on gradually varied functions and the classical finite difference
method. This new method has been applied to real groundwater data and the
results have validated the method. This method is independent from existing
popular methods such as the cubic spline method and the finite element
method. The new digital-discrete method has considerable advantages for a
large number of real data applications. This digital method also differs from
other classical discrete methods that usually use triangulations. This method
can potentially be used to obtain smooth functions such as polynomials
through its derivatives and the solution for partial differential equations
such as harmonic and other important equations.
Introduction
One of the iviost common problems in data reconstruction is to fit a
function based on the observations of some sample (guiding) points. The
word ‘some’ is important here. When one has all the data points in hand,
then fitting a function to them is trivial. When the data set is incomplete,
and one wishes to reconstruct the data, then building a proper fitting
function is more difficult. In this paper, we present recently developed
algorithms for smooth-continuous data reconstruction based on the digital-
discrete method. The classical discrete method for data reconstruction is
based on domain decomposition according to guiding (or sample) points,
and then the Spline method (for polynomial fitting) or finite elements
method (for Partial Differential Equations) is used to fit the data. Some
successful methods have been discovered or proposed to solve the
problem including the Voronoi-based surface method' and the moving
least square method [2j[12][15][ 1 8][19]. A comprehensive review was
presented in [4].
’ In mathematics, a Voronoi diagram is a special kind of decomposition of a metric space
determined by distances to a specified discrete set of objects in the space, e.g., by a
discrete set of points. It is named after Georgy Voronoi (1868-1908).
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Our method is based on the gradually varied function (see the
appendix for a definition) that does not assume the property of the linear
separability among guiding points, i.e. no domain decomposition methods
are needed [8] [9]. We design a systematic digital-discrete method for
obtaining continuous functions with smoothness to a certain order
from sample data. This design is based on gradually varied functions and
the classical finite difference method. We also demonstrate the flexibility
of the new method and its potential to solve a variety of problems. The
examples include some real data from water well logs and harmonic
functions on closed 2D manifolds. These validate the method. We present
several different algorithms. This method can be easily extended to higher
multi-dimensions.
This method is independent from existing popular methods such as
the cubic spline method and the finite element method. The new digital-
discrete method has considerable advantages for a large number of real
data applications. This digital method also differs from other classical
discrete methods that usually use triangulations. This method can
potentially be used to obtain smooth functions such as polynomials
through its derivatives/*^^ and the solution for partial differential equations
such as harmonic and other important equations [3] [4] [5].
Background and Basic Concepts
We will deal with the following two real world problems: (1) Given a set
of points and its observation (function) values at these points, extend the
values to a larger set. (2) When observing an image, if an object is
extracted from the image, a representation of the object can sometimes be
described by its boundary curve. If all the values on the boundary are the
same, then we can restore the object by filling the region. If the values on
the boundary are not the same and if we assume the values are
“continuous” on the boundary, then we need a fitting algorithm to find a
surface. Both problems involve extending the original dataset to the entire
region. We will use two real data examples in the following sections to
explain these.
We address the following question about extending the data: Let D
be a domain and J be a subset of D. If /is “continuous” or “smooth” on J,
is there a general method that yields an extension F of/ for set D that has
the continuity or smoothness property?
^ d' is the class of all continuous functions. C* is the class of differentiable functions
whose kth derivative is continuous.
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In continuous space, this problem is related to the Dirichlet
Problem (when J is the boundary) and the Whitney extension problem
(when J is a subspace ofD, the space [13] [14] [19].
Why are the existing numerical methods not perfect? Here is an
explanation using splines. We show in Fig 2.1 an example that contains
four sample data points. If the boundary were irregular, we would need to
use a 2D B-Spline to divide the boundary into four segments. The
different partitions would yield different results (One is free to do this in
different ways with different choices). Fig 2a shows one choiee for a
linear interpolation. Fig 2b shows another choice. Fig. 2c shows how a
gradually varied interpolation will fit the data. If we have five sample
points, we would have 10 different piece- wise linear interpolations. For
six points, we may have more than 30 piece-wise linear functions [4]. For
more literature review, see [4]. Here we just use an example to illustrate
the differenees that can arise with choice of partition. [4].
(a) (b) (c)
Fig.2.1. (a) (b) Two piecewise linear interpolations, we do not know
which one is correct, (c) The gradually varied interpolation result
shows a quite reasonable non-linear fitting.
To answer the question posed earlier: What is a “eontinuous” or
“smoothing” function in discrete space? We have defined the so-ealled
gradually varied functions (GVF) for the purpose of constructing
continuous functions in discrete space [6] [7] [8] [9] [10]. See the Appendix
for the mathematical definition.
The basic concept of gradual variation is to define small changes
between two points in a discrete domain that can be built on any graph
[6] [7]. So, a gradually varied surface is a special discrete surfaee. In
general, a digital surface is formed by the moving of a line segment.
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Fig. 2.2 Examples of gradually varied functions
In 1997 a gradually varied surface fitting software component was
included in a lab-use software system. The software demonstrates the
arbitrary guiding points of a gradually varied surface fitting in a 10x10
grid domain (Fig. 2.2).
The gradually varied function is tightly related to the Tipschitz
function and the local Tipschitz function. A brief comparison of the
method of gradually varied functions and the McShane- Whitney extension
method is in [3]. In theory, McShane and Whitney obtained an important
theorem for the Tipschitz function extension [17] [22]. Kirszbraun and
later Valentine studied the Tipschitz mapping extension for Hilbert spaces
[21]. For more information, see [13] [3].
Theorem 2.1 (see Appendix) can be used for a single surface fitting
if the condition in the theorem is satisfied. A problem occurs when the
sample data does not satisfy the condition of fitting. Then the original
algorithm cannot be used directly for individual surface fitting. Another
problem is that the theorem is only for “continuous” surfaces. It does not
suggest a solution for differentiable or smooth functions.
On the other hand, we can define the discrete immersion problem
as follows: Tet Dj and D2 be two discrete manifolds (for instance,
piecewise linear approximations of topological manifolds) and/.- Di -^D2
be a mapping. / is said to be an immersion from Di to D? or a gradually
varied operator if x and y are adjacent in Di implying /(x^ = f(y), or/(x/
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f(y) are adjacent in D2 [6] [7].
We can define immersion-extendable and the normal immersion
(the gradually varied extension) [6] [7].
Smooth Gradually Varied Functions
The fitting algorithm for a typical gradually varied function does
not really need the functions Ai,A2,...An and only needs the real numbers
as the graph- theoretic solution. However, information about the
rational or real numbers of A/, A2, ...An are critical factors in the smooth
gradually varied functions. In other words, in order to obtain a gradually
varied interpolation or uniform approximation, for instance in a 2D grid
space, we do not have to use the actual Ai. We only need to use i, i=l,...,n.
This is because gradual variation is an abstract concept. However, to
consider smoothness, we have to consider the derivatives that will involve
the actual values Ai, i=l, ...,n.
The key to the method for reconstructing a smooth gradually
varied function is first to calculate a continuous function (gradually varied
function), then to obtain the partial derivatives, and finally to modify the
original function. A method to keep the partial derivative functions
gradually varied is designed as the necessary part for this new method.
This procedure can be recursively done in order to obtain high order
derivatives. Then we can use the Taylor expansion for local fittings. The
use of the Taylor expansion for 2D surfaces was designed by many
researchers [16] [13].
The Basics of the New Method
Given J ^ D, and fj: J-^{A],A2, ...AJ. Let /b be a gradually varied
extension of fj on D, which is a simply connected region in 2D grid space.
We can calculate the derivatives
+ It) -
foi^^y) + 1) - foi^^y)
(3.1)
(3.2)
These derivatives will be regarded as an estimation of the fitted
surfaces. Sometimes we know the values of the derivatives for the whole
or subset of the domain. Then we will use those instead of the above
equations. Sometimes, if we are not confident with the whole function
{e.g. calculated by the above equations), we will use gradually varied
functions to fit the samples of derivative values. After we have the
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derivatives, /’, we can then use them to re-calculate or update the original
(gradually varied) fitted function by adding the first derivative component.
The above method can be used to calculate the different orders of
derivatives. Then, the Taylor expansion at the sampling point will be
applied to a region with a certain radius.
Calculation of the Derivatives using Gradually Varied Functions
One of the main objectives of this paper is to obtain “continuous”
derivative functions using gradually varied reconstruction. After a
function is reconstructed, we can then get all the orders of derivatives.
There is usually no need to use fitting methods for obtaining derivative
functions. However, in order to maintain the continuity of the derivative
functions, we either need to smooth the derivative function or use another
method to make a continuous function. In some situations, from the
observing data point, we can get not only the values of the function itself,
but also the values of the derivative function. For example, in the
groundwater well log data, we can get both the water lever and the speed
of the water flow. For some boundary value problems, we could get the
boundary derivatives (called the Neumann problem in partial differential
equations).
This method will directly use gradually varied fitting to get
gradually varied fx and fy\ we can use the same technique to obtain fxx.fxy,
and fyy. So eventually we can get every order of derivatives we want.
Iteration with special treatments may be needed for a good fit. For
instance, we usually need to iterate at a lower order of the derivative
function until it is stabilized before calculating higher order derivatives.
This method differs fundamentally from Fefferman’s theoretical
method in digital reconstruction, which uses a system of linear inequalities
and an objective function (this is called linear programming) to find the
solution at each point. The inequalities are for all different orders of
derivatives [13]. However, for just the function, the objective of
Fefferman’s method is very similar to that of the gradually varied
reconstruction method.
Recalculation of the Function using Taylor Expansion
After different derivatives are obtained, we can use Taylor
expansion to update the value of the gradually varied fitted function (at
In fact, at any order we can update it using a higher order of
derivatives.
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The Taylor expansion is based on the formula of the Taylor series,
which has the following generalized form:
For example, for a function that depends on two variables, x andy,
the Taylor series of the second order using the guiding point (xo, yo) is:
/(^,t) = /(^o^To) + (^-^o)/.(^o^To) + (t-To)4(^o^To)
There are several ways of implementing this formula. We have chosen the
ratio of less than half of the change. An iteration process is designed to
make the new function converge.
Algorithm Design
In Section 3, a systematic digital-discrete method for obtaining
continuous functions with smoothness to a certain order (C") from the
sample data was defined. In order to implement this method, we will now
design the new algorithms to accomplish our task.
The Main Algorithm
The new algorithm tries to search for the best fit. We have added a
component of the classical finite difference method in order to obtain
derivatives for the smooth fitting. Start with a particular dataset consisting
of guiding points defined on a grid space. The major steps of the new
algorithm are as follows (This is for 2D functions. For 3D functions, we
would only need to add a dimension):
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Step 1 : Load guiding points. In this step we load the data points
with observation values.
Step 2: Determine the resolution. Locate the points in grid space.
Step 3; Function extension according to Theorem 2.1. This way,
we obtain gradually varied or near gradually varied
(continuous) functions. In this step the local Lipschitz
condition is used.
Step 4: Use the finite difference method to calculate partial
derivatives. Then obtain the smoothed function.
Step 5: Some multilevel and multi resolution method may be used
to do the fitting when data set is large.
The Iterated Method for Each Step of Calculating Derivatives
Iterate to find the fitting function - step 3 of the algorithm. After
we have obtained fx,fy then we can re-compute the gradually varied fitting
functions {GVF) using to direct the final fitting output. Every time we
need to update the result until the new function has no change. Then we
have a fixed or 7J. So we can do a gradually varied fitting on the selected
points in f or fy, before repeating. We will obtain fxx,fxy, and fy. Update f
(or fy), until fx has no change. Then we return back to change f If we knew
fx,fy, we can use fx and fy to guide the fitting.
In other words, this method uses Fx, Fy, or GVF(^) and GWT(fy) to
update the F = GWT(fl. We use numerical updates unlike the first
gradually varied fitting where we use “digital” fitting {A„ i=l,...,n), iterate
based on the fitting orders.
We can either - Choice (A): Update the whole F, and then
compute Fx, Fy. I'hen repeat until there is no change or very small
change/error within a threshold. Or - Choice (B): Update based on each
order (with respect to the distance to the guiding points) then editing Fx, Fy
using the updated versions as guiding points.
Repeat until there is no change, and we get Fx, Fy. or GVFifxV^
GVF(fy^) (* means some extreme points are added). Then we compute Fxx,
Fxy, and Fyy, and so on and so forth. Using Fxx, etc to update Fx and Fy, and
then back to updating F again.
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The Multi-scaling Method^
The multi scaling method is to choose a base scale and then
refining the scale by 2. This is just like the wavelet method. Other multi-
scaling methods for PDE can be found in [23].
If there is more than one guiding point in a pixel or block unit, we
can chose one or use its average value. Computing the gradually varied
function at scale k gives us Fk=GVF(f,k), we can then get the F(x,k)- We can
calculate and insert the value at 1/2 point surrounding the guiding points
(do the corresponding process if the pixel contains more points, restores
the points or uses the average value).
Computing the whole insertion or computing it in an order by
surrounding points then uses the new calculated points as guiding points
for the gradually varied functions. The resulting gradually varied function
is in the new scale. This will guarantee the derivatives at guiding points.
Then we use this function to refine the scale again by keeping the
inserted points as guiding points. We will now have more points
surrounding the original guiding points, and so on and so forth. We can
get our F in a predefined scale. This will obtain a good derivative as well.
Using higher order derivatives can be obtained recursively.
We can also use this to calculate fxx, fxy, and fyy, based on the new
gradually varied function to refine the F. This method will also work. The
result will be smoothed to the order that we choose.
^ The Multiscale method is a class of algorithmic techniques for solving efficiently and
effectively large-scale computational and optimization problems. The main objective of a
multiscale algorithm is to create a hierarchy of problems {coarsening), each representing
the original problem, but with fewer degrees of freedom.
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Experiments
In this section, we present three different experiments and applications.
The first experiment uses the gradually varied function to fit the data for
ground water distribution. The second compares the smoothness of
reconstruction. Finally at the end of the section, we give some examples
for fitting continuous and smooth functions on manifolds.
First experiment — Ground water distribution
Two sets of real data are tested. Each data set is of ground water
distribution near Norfolk, Virginia. The first set consists of 10 sample data
points of groundwater distribution and we call this the raw data. The
format of the data is as follows:
Value Latitude
4.65 36.62074879
8.60 36.65792848
75.12 36.70764998
208.26 36.68320624
10.04 36.72371439
Longitude
-76.10938540
-76.55772770
-76.12937859
-76.91329390
-76.02054720
The gradually varied fitting result is shown in Fig. 5.1 and the second data
set containing 29 sample points is shown in Fig. 5.2.
(a) (b)
Fig. 5.1. Norfolk, VA Groundwater distribution calculated by gradually
varied surfaces, (a) Using 10 sample points, (b) The fitted result.
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Fig. 5.2. The picture is the result of fitting based on 29 sample points. The first image is a
“continuous” surface and the second is the “first derivative.” The arrow indicates the
interesting area that disappears in the second image, i.e. the vertical lines are removed.
^ CourtIftrKS
Suffolk
Norfotk -(44), ,
.Chesapeake
B
Vi
"E
Franklin
Dimensions (Latitude, Longitude)
A = (36.62074879, -77.17746768)
B = (36.92515020, -76.00948530)
Fig. 5.3. The map and ground water data
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Fig. 5.3 shows a good match found between the ground water data
and the region’s geographical map. The brightness of the pixels indicates
the water’s depth from the surface. In mountainous areas, the groundwater
level is lower in general. Some mismatches may be caused by not having
enough sample data points (wells). The second image is done using the 29
points and is the same image as Fig. 5.2. Flowever, this image is rescaled
to match the geographical location.
Second experiment -- Comparison of the smoothness of reconstruction
This example uses the Taylor expansion formula to obtain the results. The
original data is still the 29 points used above.
Fig. 5.4. Comparison for and The image on the right is an
enlargement of the boxed region of the image to the left. One can see
that the rightmost image is smoother in (c) than it is in (a).
(a) The continuous’
function.
ESESE
(b) The first order
derivative.
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Third example — Continuous and smooth functions on manifolds
A gradually varied surface reconstruction does not rely on the
shape of the domain and it is not restricted by simplicial decomposition.
As long as the domain can be described as a graph, our algorithms will
apply. However, the actual implementation will be much more difficult. In
the above sections, we have discussed two types of algorithms for a
rectangle domain. One is the complete gradually varied function (GVF)
fitting and the other is the reconstruction of the best fit based on the
gradual variation and finite difference methods.
The following is the implementation of the method for digital-
discrete surface fitting on manifolds (triangulated representation of the
domain). The data come from a modified example in Princeton’s 3D
Benchmark data sets.
We will have four algorithms related to continuous (and smooth)
functions on manifolds. This is because we have 4 cases: (1)
ManifoldIntGVF: The GVF extension on point space, corresponding to
Delaunay triangulations; the values are integers. (2) ManifoldRealGVF:
The GVF fitting on point space, the fitted data are real numbers. (3)
ManifoldCellIntGVF: The GVF extension on face (2D-cell) space,
corresponding to Voronoi decomposition; the values are integers. (4)
ManifoldCellRealGVF: The GVF fitting on face (2D-cell) space, the fitted
data are real numbers.
Fig. 5.4. Gradually varied function on manifolds: (a) Fitting using
seven points, (b) Harmonic fitting using (a).
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(*)
Gradually \'aried Fitting vs. Harmonic Fitting
(b)
GradualK Varied Fitting vs. Harmonic Fitting; (a) Tbe seiected cells
form a boundary cun e that Is gradually varied, (b) Another \1etv of the
guiding points, (c) The gradually varied tilting (GVF) result, (d) The
Harmonic fitting based on GM^ (100 iterations).
Fig. 5.5. More fitting examples in digital manifolds
Summary
McShane-Whitney Theorem says that a Lipschitz function / on a
subset J of a connected set D in a metric space can be extended to a
Lipschitz function F on D. McShane gave a constructive proof for the
existence of the extension in [17]. He constructed a minimal extension
{INF) that is Lipschitz. It is easy for someone to construct a maximum
extension (SUP). In [3], we use F = (INF+SUP)/2 as the so-called
McShane-Whitney mid function. The result is shown below. (See Fig. 6.1)
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Fig. 6.1. McShane-Whitney mid extensions: (a) using the sample data
set of Fig. 5.1, (b) using the sample data set of Fig. 5.2.
The fitting is dominated by the Lipschitz constant [3]. In this
paper, we have shown the local Lipschitz function extensions. To get a
smoothed function using gradual variation is a long time goal of our
research. Some theoretical attempts have been made before, but struggled
in the actual implementation. Fefferman et al. have designed a refinement
method [13].
The purpose of this paper is to present some actual examples and
related results using the new algorithms we designed in [2]. The author
welcomes other real data sets to further examine the new algorithms. The
implementation code is written in C++. Li Chen's website can be found at
www.udc.edu/prof/chen.
Acknowledgements
This research has been partially supported by the USGS Seed Grants
through the UDC Water Resources Research Institute (WRRI) and Center
for Discrete Mathematics and Theoretical Computer Science (DIMACS)
at Rutgers University. Professor Feng Luo suggested the direction of the
relationship between harmonic functions and gradually varied functions.
Dr. Yong Liu provided many help in PDE. UDC undergraduate Travis
Branham extracted the application data from the USGS database.
Professor Thomas Funkhouser provided help on the 3D data sets and
OpenGL display programs. The author would also like to thank Professor
Charles Fefferman and Professor Nahum Zobin for their invitation to the
Workshop on Whitney’s Problem in 2009.
Summer 2010
References
1 . G. Agnarsson and L. Chen, On the extension of vertex maps to graph
homomorphisms, Discrete Mathematics, 306, (17), pp. 2021-2030, 2006.
2. N. Amenta, M. Bern, and M. Kamvysselis, A new Voronoi-based surface
reconstruction algorithm, Proc. SIGGRAPH ’98, pp. 415-422, July 1998.
3. L. Chen, Applications of the digital-discrete method in smooth-continuous data
reconstruction, http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1002/1002.2367.pdf
4. L. Chen, Digital-Discrete Surface Reconstruction: A true universal and nonlinear
method, http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/ 1 003/ 1 003 .2242.pdf.
5. L. Chen, Gradual variation analysis for groundwater flow of DC (revised), DC
Water Resources Research Institute Final Report, Dec 2009.
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/ 1 00 1 / 1 00 1 .3 1 90.pdf
6. L. Chen, Discrete surfaces and manifolds. Scientific and Practical Computing,
Rockville, Maryland, 2004.
7. L. Chen, Gradually varied surfaces and gradually varied functions, in Chinese,
1990; in English 2005 CITR-TR 156, U of Auckland.
8. L. Chen, The necessary and sufficient condition and the efficient algorithms for
gradually varied fill, Chinese Sci. Bull. 35 (10), pp. 870-873, 1990.
9. L. Chen, Random gradually varied surface fitting, Chinese Sci. Bull. 37 (16), pp.
1325-1329, 1992.
10. L. Chen and O. Adjei, lambda-connected segmentation and fitting. Proceedings of
IEEE international conference on systems man and cybernetics, 4, pp. 3500-3506,
2004.
11. L. Chen, Y. Liu and F. Luo, A note on gradually varied functions and harmonic
functions, 2009, http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/09 1 0/09 1 0.5040v 1 .pdf
1 2. E. Catmull, and J. Clark, Recursively generated B-spline surfaces on arbitrary
topological meshes. Computer Aided Design, 10 (6), pp. 350-355. 1978.
13. C. Fefferman, Whitney’s extension problems and interpolation of data. Bull. Amer.
Math. Soc. 46, pp. 207-220, 2009.
14. B. Klartag and N. Zobin, Cl extensions of functions and stabilization of Glaeser
refinements. Revista Math. Iheroamericana, 23 (2), pp. 635-669, 2007.
1 5. P. Lancaster, and K. Salkauskas, Surfaces generated by moving least squares
methods. Mathematics of Computation 87, pp. 141-158, 1981.
1 6. Jean-Laurent Mallet, Discrete smooth interpolation, ACM Transactions on
Graphics, 8, No 2 , April 1989, pp. 121 — 144.
1 7. E. J. McShane, Extension of range of functions. Bull. Amer. Math. Soc., 40, pp.
837-842, 1934.
1 8. J. Peters, Smooth free-form surfaces over irregular meshes generalizing quadratic
splines. Computer Aided Geometric Design, 10 (3-4), pp. 347-361, Aug. 1993
19. P. Shvartsman, On Sobolev extension domains in Rn,
http://arxiv.org/abs/0904.0909, 2009.
20. W. Thurston, Three-dimensional geometry and topology, Princeton University
press, 1997.
21. F. A. Valentine, “A Lipschitz Condition Preserving Extension for a Vector
VwncXxon,''’ American Journal of Mathematics, 67, (1), pp. 83-93, 1945.
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63
22. H. Whitney, Analytic extensions of functions defined in closed sets, Transactions of
the American Mathematical Society 36, pp. 63 89, 1 934.
23. X. Yue and W. E., Numerical methods for multiscale transport equations and
application to two-phase porous media flow. J. Comput. Phys., 210, (2), pp. 656-
675, 2005.
Summer 2010
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Appendix
Gradually Varied Definition:
Let function f: A2,...,An} and let Ai< A2<...<An. If a and b are
adjacent inZ), assume f(a)=Ai, then f(b)= Ai, Ai.j orA,+j. Point (a,f(a)) and
(b,f(b)) are then said to be gradually varied.
A 2D function (surface) is said to be gradually varied if every adjacent
pair is gradually varied.
Discrete Surface Fitting Definition:
Given JcD, and f: J-^{Ai,A2, ...An}, decide if there exists an F:
D-^fA i,A2, ...,An} such that F is gradually varied where f(x)=F(x), and x is
in J.
An example using real numbers is:
Let D be a subset of real numbers D ^ { 1 ,2,.,.,.,n}. If a and b are
adjacent in D such that \f{a)-f{b)\ < 1 then point [aj{a) and b{f[by[ is said to
be gradually varied.
A 2D function (a surface) is said to be gradually varied if every adjacent
pair are gradually varied.
There are three theorems necessary for this development:
Theorem 2.1 [8] [9]: The necessary and sufficient conditions for the
existence of a gradually varied extension F are: for all x,y in J, d(x,y)> \ i-
j\,f(x)^Ai and f(y)^Aj, where (Z is the distance between x andy in D.
Theorem 2.2 [7]: Any graph (or digital manifold) D can normally
immerse an arbitrary tree T.
Theorem 2.3 [1]: For a reflexive graph G, the following are equivalent:
(1) G has the Extension Property.
(2) G is an absolute retract.
A space X is known as an absolute retract if for every normal
space Y that embeds X as a closed subset, X is a retract of Y.
(3) G has the Kelly property.
Washington Academy of Sciences
65
An alternative representation of the theorem is: For a discrete manifold M
the following are equivalent:
( 1 ) Any discrete manifold can normally immerse to M.
(2) Reflexivized M is an absolute retract.
(3) Mhas the Helly property.
Summer 2010
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Washington Academy of Sciences
67
Highlights from the WAS Banquet
Meadowlark Gardens May 17, 2010
Speech by outgoing President Kiki Ikossi
Dear Washington Academy of Sciences members, friends, and
distinguished guests.
It is an Academy tradition to have this elegant banquet every year for three
reasons.
First, to get together, have some good times, and listen to a wonderful talk.
I hope everyone enjoyed the nice weather, the delicious dinner and the
amazing talk. Please let me extend my appreciation to David Teie for
taking time out of his very busy schedule to join us this evening and talk
to us on how science proved that the appreciation of music is not only for
humans; music is appreciated by cats and all Earthlings.
The next reason we are here is to give the Academy awards to the most
distinguished and most promising scientists of the Washington DC area.
Allow me to congratulate all of our awardees for their accomplishments
and for the recognition they received today. May you all use this
distinction to further promote new discoveries and responsible and ethical
use of the scientific knowledge that your work produces.
Summer 2010
68
Also, many thanks to our awards committee for their time.
And now to the third reason we are all here - to inform our members of the
state of the Academy and introduce the new board members.
Science is thriving and new discoveries are happening every day. Our
understanding of the world around us stretches from subatomic to nano-
particles, from our Earth to galaxies, includes the climate, and human and
animal behavior; this understanding is clearer and better because of efforts
of scientists all over the world. Interdisciplinary research is breaking
traditional barriers and bringing up new discoveries every day. New
inventions make our lives easier, our health better and our medical
treatments more effective. Furthermore, the ehange in the way science is
treated and viewed in Washington is welcomed by all. We are all very
optimistic and hope to see science driving policies for the benefit of the
nation and all humanity.
This past year I had the honor to serve as the 112 president of the
Washington Academy of Sciences. I was fortunate to work with an
extraordinary team toward the Academy's goals. Our Executive Director,
Peg Kay; President-elect Mark Holland; the Vice President for
Administration, Lisa Frehill; the Vice President for Membership, Sethanne
Howard; the Vice President for Affiliate Affairs Eugene Williams; the
Vice President of the Junior Academy, Paul Hazan; our Secretary James
Cole; the Treasurer, Larry Millstein; our Past President A1 Teich and our
members at large, Denise Ingram, Daryl Chubin, Frank Haig, Alianna
Maren, Donna Dean and Michael Cohen. Together we provided our
members an informative, intellectually stimulating, and busy program.
One of our traditional events was the Affiliate Reception at the Koshland
Museum in November. Dr. Mark Holland was our key note speaker.
The last weekend of March, Capital Science 2010 (CapSci 2010), our
biannual conference, took place at the National Science Foundation in
Arlington, VA. Nineteen affiliated societies participated and the diversity,
breadth, and depth of the presentations were remarkable. The plenary and
featured speakers' presentations were exceptional. The quality of the
conference was unparalleled.
fhe Capital Science conference is unique in its nature as it brings together
sciences from different disciplines in a weekend of celebration of
scientific research and discovery. The ability to have a pan-affiliate local
conference in the heart of the nation underlines the fact that the
Washington, DC area is not only the political capital of the country but
Washington Academy of Sciences
69
also, in many respects, the nation's intellectual capital. Mark your
calendars and start working on your research and papers as CapSci2012 is
coming up!
The main component of the Washington Academy of Sciences Junior
Academy program is the Science and Technology Aptitude Recognition
for Schools or (STARS) program. The STARS program helps to inspire
the next generation of scientists. Under the leadership of the Vice-
President for the Junior Academy, Paul Kazan, our STARS program grew
exponentially to include over 1600 students from 9 different DC area
schools. Over 200 Academy members volunteered as judges for the
science fairs.
Nevertheless, we did have our moments of worry. With a challenged
economy our sponsors could not continue their financial support and left
our STARS program with no funds to award the Galileo and Newton
metals to the science fair winners. It is in moments like these that one
realizes the importance and impact the STARS program had made to the
community. Our members stepped in and saved the science fair season. I
would like to thank the numerous members who made personal
contributions to the STARS program and Irvin Kay Memorial Fund and
made it possible for the STARS program to continue.
With Paul determined to pass the baton to the Junior Academy for next
year, Dick Davies graciously agreed to help Paul until such time as the
transition is possible. We are grateful for all the work Paul is doing for the
Academy and very please that he is making sure that the STARS program
that is so valued by our community continues on.
The Washington Academy of Science Journal has the distinction of
possibly being the only scientific peer reviewed journal published in the
Washington DC area solidly by volunteers for over 100 years. Our journal
editor. Vary Coates, after years of dedicated service, passed the baton to
Jacqueline Maffucci. Vary went away by producing what I feel is the most
desirable journal issue in its history. I was overwhelmed by e-mails from
all over the world asking for a copy of Vary's last Journal issue on science
policy. We would like to thank Vary for her distinguished service and
welcome Jackie.
And now to our new programs.
This year we initiated our Washington Academy of Sciences' Great
Lecturer series. The first lecture was held on October 21, 2009 at the
National Science Foundation with Dr. Michael Coble's talk on New
Summer 2010
70
Advances in Forensic Science Research & Investigation. Dr. Coble
provided an overview of the latest developments in forensic science and
the science behind solving the historic mystery of the missing Romanov
children. Our website has the whole lecture available to watch.
On December 17, 2009, in conjunction with Sisters in Crime and Mystery
Loves Company, [WAS] sponsored a panel of prominent mystery writers
who discussed how they used science in their work. The transcript of this
meeting is available on our website. I am happy that we have started yet
another program with this series. Ideas keep pouring in for continuing this
series with a possible science in music and/or science in mystery meeting.
In an effort to expand the Junior Academy to the college level the first
Junior Academy of Sciences club was formed at Salisbury University with
the help of our President-elect Prof Mark Holland. The Junior Academy
students participated in many of our events including a live link to the
Science is Murder program and presentations by many students at
CapSci2010.
Despite the worrisome state of the global economy the Washington
Academy of Sciences is doing well. Although we are not rich in monetary
terms, we are affluent in devoted time and energy from all of our members
and are able to continue and expand our programs. I would like to thank
our treasurer Dr. Larry Milstein and the Audit committee Father Frank
Haig and Dr. Terrell Erickson, for their diligence in performing the audit
this year. We have about a 5% growth in our active membership. Our
treasurer reports that we are doing well with a modest increase in our
balance for this year.
With regards to bringing up the Academy in the 21st century we still need
to work out the details for streamlining online access to journal articles for
our members. Nevertheless our programs have entered the 21st century
with the videotaping of our Great Lecturer series, which are available on
our web site. The CapSci plenary, keynote, and featured speakers were
videotaped and will be available soon. In addition our Science Is Murder
series and our first CapSci sequel were transmitted live. Thanks to the
dedication of our President-Elect live broadcast over Skype was possible
with participating students of the Junior Academy of Sciences across the
area.
Finally, I would like to thank every committee member for the attention
and effort they devoted to the Academy. Some members traveled great
distances and battled disastrous weather and horrific traffic to participate
Washington Academy of Sciences
71
in the committee meetings. 1 would like to personally acknowledge our
executive director Peg Kay for all the energy and devotion she
demonstrated towards developing and perfecting the Academy's program.
It is only through these combined generous efforts that the Academy had a
memorable 112 year.
Thank you for your attention. And fare well.
The Banquet Setting
Summer 2010
72
Speech by incoming President Mark Holland
Arthur C. Clarke wrote that the scientist, “once over fifty years is fit for
nothing more than the Board room and should at all costs be kept out of
the laboratory.” Having just suffered through one of those past fifty
birthdays fm not sure that I can agree with that sentiment, but I suppose I
should start by thanking all of you voting members of the Academy for
sending me to the WAS Board Room (where Arthur, at least, says I
belong), fm pretty sure that some of my students are also thanking you if
Academy business keeps me away from the laboratory a little more than
usual this year.
This year is shaping up to be an exciting one for the Academy. Follow-up
programs from this year’s CapSci meeting are already in the works. We
also plan to expand this year in the creation of undergraduate student
chapters of the Academy at colleges and universities throughout the
Washington area, which was begun under the leadership of past president
Kiki Ikossi. Last year we also experimented with the delivery of WAS
programs via streaming video and by Skype and this initiative will also be
continued.
Throughout the year, please keep in touch through your WAS
representatives or directly with me if you have ideas about how the
Academy can better serve you, your affiliated society or the scientific
community generally.
Again, I thank you for your support and look forward to working with and
for you during the upcoming year.
Washington Academy of Sciences
73
The New Board of Directors
The Speaker David Teie
Summer 2010
74
Awardees
Distinguished Career in Science
Karl Pribram, Distinguished Research Professor, Department of
Psychology (Cognitive Neuroscience Program) Georgetown University
Physical Sciences
Carl Williams, Chief, Atomic Physics Division, National Institute of
Standards and Technology; Co-Director, Joint Quantum Institute (JQI);
Adjunct Professor, University of Maryland Applications for Tomorrow
Washington Academy of Sciences
75
Biological Sciences
Jeffrey Mason, Co-Director, DVBIC-AFIP Brain Injury Center; Chief,
Division of Biophysics , Clinical Sciences Division Armed Forces Institute
of Pathology; Administrative Director, AFIP Magnetic Resonance
Microscopy Facility
Mathematics and Computer Science
Stuart Antman, Distinguished University Professor Institute for Physical
Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics
Summer 2010
76
Health Sciences
Dr. Jay Sanders, President and CEO of The Global Telemedicine Group,
Professor of Medicine at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine
(Adjunct), and a founding board member of the American Telemedicine
Association where he serves as President Emeritus.
Krupsaw Award for Non-Traditional Teaching
Martin Ogle, Chief Naturalist, Northern Virginia Regional Park Authority
Washington Academy of Sciences
77
Science Policy
Francesca Grifo, Director and Senior Scientist, Scientific Integrity
Program, Union of Concerned Scientists
Special Award for Service to the Academy (Posthumous)
Stanley Winkler; This special Award was presented in recognition of his
many years of devoted, effective service to the Junior Academy
Summer 2010
78
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JoumafT washacadsci.org or directly to the editor. Dr Jacqueline
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accepted. Manuscripts can be accepted by any of the Board of
Discipline Editors.
Emanuela Appetiti - anthropology at eappetiti@hotmail.com
Elizabeth Corona - systems science at elizabethcorona@gmail.com
Jim Eigenreider - science education at iim@deepwater.org
Terrell Erickson - environmental natural sciences at
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Kiki Ikossi - engineering at ikossi@ieee.org
Carol Lacampagne - mathematics at clacampagne@earthlink.net
Raj Madhaven - engineering at rai.madhaven@nist.gov
Kent Miller - computer sciences at kent.l.miller@alumni.cmu.edu
Jean Mielczarek - physics and biology at mielczar@phvsics.gmu.edu
Robin Stombler - health at rstombler@auburnstrat.com
Alain Touwaide - history of medicine at atouwaide@hotmail.com
Steve Tracton - atmospheric studies at s.traction@hotmail.com
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Summer 2010
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Volume 96
Number 3
Fall 2010
Journal of the
WASHINGTON
ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Ecfitor’s Comments J. Maffucci i
Examining Patterns of Simulator Sickness during Increased Exposure to a Motion-Base Driving
Simulator over Time E. Nelson, D. Kidd, D. Cades 1
Enhanced Rear Signaling (ERS) for Heavy Trucks: Mitigating Rear-end Tr\x:k Crashes Using
Visual Warning Signals IN. Schaudt, D. Bowman, J. Bocanegra, R. Hanowski, C. Flanigan 15
Individual Differences in Resuming Interrupted Tasks N. E. Werner, et a! 35
Psychoactive Medications, Stimulants, Hypnotics, and Nutritional Aids: G. Krueger 51
Instructions to Authors 87
ISSN 0043-0439
Issued Quarterly at Washington DC
Washington Academy of Sciences
Founded in 1898
Board of Managers
Elected Officers
President
Mark Holland
President Elect
Gerard Christman
Treasurer
Larry Millstein
Secretary
James Cole
Vice President, Administration
Lisa Frehill
Vice President, Membership
Sethanne Howard
Vice President, Junior Academy
Paul L. Hazan
Vice President, Affiliated Societies
E. Eugene Williams
Members at Large
Denise Ingram
Terrell Erickson
Frank Haig, S.J.
Alianna Maren
Daryl Chubin
Russell Vane III
Past President: Kiki Ikossi
Affiliated Society Delegates:
Shown on back cover
Editor of the Journal
Jacqueline Maffucci
Associate Editor:
Sethanne Howard
The Journal of the Washington Academy of
Sciences
The Journal \s the official organ of the Academy.
It publishes articles on science policy, the history
of science, critical reviews, original science
research, proceedings of scholarly meetings of
its Affiliated Societies, and other items of interest
to its members. It is published quarterly. The last
issue of the year contains a directory of the
current membership of the Academy.
Subscription Rates
Members, fellows, and life members in good
standing receive the Journal free of charge.
Subscriptions are available on a calendar year
basis, payable in advance. Payment must be
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Single Copies (when available) $10.00
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mailing. Claims will not be allowed if non-
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Journal of the Washington Academy of
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Published by the Washington Academy of
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email: was@washacadsci.org
website: www.washacadsci.org
1
Editor’s Comments
Dear Readers,
Scientists are dependent upon federal grants to support their
research, and as such I expect many of our readers, like myself, were
anxiously awaiting the results of the recent mid-term elections. With the
announcement of the results came a great deal of speculation as to what
this newly elected Congress means for federal support for scientific
research. I’d like to take a moment to suggest that perhaps rather than
speculate, scientists take a moment to be vocal about their expectations.
I recently attended an event in which Dr. Francis Collins, Director
of the National Institutes of Health, addressed among other topics, his
hope for continued federal support for scientific research. I also had the
opportunity to hear Dr. Harold Varmus, the newly appointed Director of
the National Cancer Institute, speak on his life as a researcher and his
journey into the political realm. Both of these scientists spoke eloquently
about their dedication to research and their expectations for its future.
What struck me is that these were both researchers who
presumably never had ideations towards politics. And yet, here they were,
a few representing the many in need of federal funding to continue their
research endeavors. So, as we tread down this path towards the newly
elected Congress, if you are one of the many who are concerned about
funding for science and have taken to speculation, I suggest that rather
than speculate, act. Take a moment and contact your Congressional
members; let them know that you are a scientist, that science matters, and
you hope that they will continue to support funding for scientific research.
With that said, I’d like to introduce the Fall 2010 issue of the
Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences. With the holiday season
approaching, and many people travelling via plane, train, or automobile to
reunite with their family members, it is a season where safety is on the
minds of all. This issue features a series of articles that resulted from the
Potomac Chapter of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society mini-
symposium held in conjunction with the Washington Academy of
Sciences Capital Science 2010 weekend. First, an article by E.T. Nelson et
al. explores the utility of simulator systems in research and training,
examining whether a motion-based simulator system may or may not
induce sickness on the part of the user in the same way that a fixed-motion
simulator often does. Following that, W.A. Schaudt et al. focuses on
Fall 2010
11
improved ways to arrange rear-lighting configurations on heavy trucks to
alert drivers to braking, hence avoiding numerous rear-end collisions on
roadways. Then, N.E. Werner et al. focus our attention to distractions,
examining the cognitive mechanisms that direct our recovery from
interruptions when completing a task. Using a paradigm to test whether it
is the goal or the spatial location (or both) that we recall upon resumption
ol the task, they present some unexpected results. Finally, G.P. Krueger
presents a very thorough review of the effects of various chemical
substances on alertness and performance while driving.
I hope that you enjoy the issue and have a wonderful and safe
holiday season.
Jacqueline Maffucci
Editor, Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences
Washington Academy of Sciences
Examining Patterns of Simulator Sickness during
Increased Exposure to a Motion-Base Driving Simulator
over Time
Erik T. Nelson, David G. Kidd, and David M. Cades
George Mason University
Abstract
Simulators provide a method of safely training operators and exploring human
behavior in dangerous environments or extreme situations. One drawback of
training or conducting research in high fidelity simulator environments with
dynamic computer graphics is the occurrence of a phenomenon known as
simulator sickness. Simulator sickness can cause people to fail to complete
training regimens or to drop out of research studies before their performance is
assessed adequately. Simulated environments can also cause discomfort
resulting from mild to intense physiological and psychological symptoms of
simulator sickness which can negatively impact perfonnance and training
effectiveness. A considerable amount of research has been conducted to
understand how individual susceptibility to simulator sickness changes with
experience in fixed-base driving simulators; while some progress has been made
on that score, it is less clear how susceptibility to simulator sickness changes
over time in motion-base driving simulators.
In this study, symptoms of simulator sickness were monitored over the course of
three days in a simulated driving environment. Participants drove a simulated
vehicle through multiple drives each day in a motion-base driving simulator.
Intensity of simulator sickness symptoms were monitored during each drive
within a day and across each day. Symptoms of simulator sickness were highest
during the first day of exposure to the motion-base driving simulation but
decreased significantly on the second day of exposure, and remained lower on
the third day. Additionally, while average intensity of simulator sickness
symptoms increased during each subsequent drive during a day, simulator
sickness ratings tended to decreased across multiple days. This study’s findings
replicated patterns of simulator sickness found in fixed-base motion simulators
in a variety of motion-base simulation settings.
Fall 2010
2
Introduction
Simulator sickness plagues researchers and equipment
operator trainers who use virtual environments, such as driving simulators,
flight simulators, and tank simulators. While simulator sickness may
generally be considered an inconvenience, it can actually threaten the
validity of study findings and hamper training efforts. For example, during
both research and training efforts in flight and helicopter simulators, up to
90 ^ of participants generally experience at least one symptom of
simulator sickness, leading to participant loss and performance that may
not reflect how people would act in the real environment that is being
simulated (Johnson, 2005). A high rate of attrition can lead to misbalanced
study designs, additional costs in recruiting efforts and training, and
ethical issues. Performance is negatively affected by increases in simulator
sickness, thereby introducing systematic bias in performance associated
with susceptibility to simulator sickness (Kolasinski, 1995). Thus, it is
important to be able to effectively monitor simulator sickness and
understand its progression during multiple exposures to a simulated
environment. People who use simulated environments for research or
training would then be able to minimize or at least account for the effects
of simulator sickness on performance.
One possible cause of simulator sickness is that visual stimuli in
the simulator depict movements in the absence of actual motion
(Kolasinski, 1995). Gower & Fowkles (1989) explain how a conflict
between the flight dynamics that a pilot expects and what they actually
experience in a simulator can induce simulator sickness. Kolasinski (1995)
explains that if a participant gets sick in a motion-base simulator, he could
be suffering from motion sickness alone, simulator sickness alone, or
some combination thereof. Kolasinski (1995) argued that in order for one
to experience motion sickness, he or she must experience vestibular
stimulation, which is caused by physical motion. Therefore, while the
symptoms of motion sickness and simulator sickness are often similar,
they are caused by very different sensory inputs (motion and vision
respectively).
The most commonly accepted theory of the cause of both motion
and simulator sickness is Reason and Brand’s (1975) Sensory Conflict
rheory. J'he theory hypothesizes that sickness is caused from a conflict
between the motion that one sees with their visual system and the motion
that one feels with their vestibular system. With motion sickness
participants accurately feel the external forces exerted on them, but they
Washington Academy of Sciences
3
don’t accurately see the motion that is associated with that feeling. As an
example, a person inside of a large ship may feel the ship swaying in a
storm, but their visual system detects no changes because the ships interior
is not moving relative to them. In non-motion simulators, simulator
sickness can arise because of the opposite scenario. People can see
motion, for example a computer display depicting vehicle movement, but
are not able to feel it because the simulator base is fixed and does not
actually move. The differences between motion sickness and simulator
sickness, albeit subtle, are important in working towards understanding
how simulator sickness affects both research and training efforts.
Sensory Conflict theory has been further supported by biological
studies in animals and humans. Wang and Chinn (1956) lesioned the
vestibular, or motion perception system in dogs that were susceptible to a
swing designed to induce motion sickness. After impairment, the dogs
showed almost no reaction to the swing. Alternatively, humans who have
damaged vestibular systems often complain of motion sickness when
experiencing visually intensive scenes such as driving (Cohen et al., 2003)
or even while walking through a supermarket isle (Whitney et al, 2006).
Because their vestibular systems are not working correctly, they are
receiving visual input but not vestibular input. This is analogous to normal
participants in fixed-base simulators. These examples provide powerful
evidence that both motion sickness and simulator sickness symptoms can
be caused by sensory conflict between the vestibular system and the visual
system.
Many researchers have attempted to understand better and to
quantify motion sickness, and more recently, simulator sickness. The first
well known measure of motion sickness was the Pensacola Motion
Sickness Questionnaire (MSQ) (Kellogg et al, 1965), which was
developed in part to study the incidence of astronaut motion sickness
during space flight. Variations of this questionnaire are still in use for
assessing motion sickness, however, symptoms and causes of simulator
sickness are different enough from those of motion sickness that new
measures of simulator sickness were developed. While both simulator
sickness and motion sickness have some similar symptoms, such as
sweating, nausea, headache, and vertigo, simulator sickness symptoms
tend to be less prevalent in the population and much less severe for those
who do experience symptoms (Kennedy et al., 1993). The MSQ’s rating
system ranges from no symptoms to headache and sweating, among other
symptoms, to confirmed emesis (vomiting). Because symptoms of
simulator sickness tend to be less severe, the MSQ was not sensitive
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4
enough to differentiate between various degrees of simulator sickness.
Kennedy et al. (1993) also found that many of the items in the motion
sickness questionnaire either did not pertain to symptoms of simulator
sickness or just occurred too rarely to be sensitive enough to differentiate
between those who have and those who do not have simulator sickness.
Emesis is a good example; although it is a valid measure of simulator
sickness, it is not a very sensitive measure since it happens rarely. The
meta-analysis by Kennedy et al. (1993) only recorded emesis twice in
1,200 simulator exposures in their research. After unreliable measures of
simulator sickness were discarded, a factor analysis was conducted to
develop weightings to identify a global score of overall simulator sickness.
This global simulator sickness score determined by Kennedy et al. (1993)
is the rating used in the study, and the most common measure of simulator
sickness used in both research and training today.
With the development of a reliable simulator sickness rating,
researchers have been able to assess simulator sickness over time using
longitudinal designs. Two types of longitudinal designs have been
examined: multiple assessments of simulator sickness within a given
single session, and multiple assessments between several sessions, each
separated by at least a day. Not surprisingly, simulator sickness scores
tend to increase as time spent in the simulator during any one session
increases (Park et al.., 2008; Kennedy, Stanney, & Dunlap, 2000; Stanney
et al., 2003). Stated differently, once a person begins feeling sick in a
simulator, their symptoms will tend to get progressively worse until they
are removed from the simulator. Park et al. (2008) found that participants’
average simulator sickness scores were significantly higher than their
baseline scores after only 10 to 15 minutes of exposure.
Alternatively, simulator sickness has been shown to decrease when
people are given adequate rest between repeated exposures to simulated
environments, an effect known as habituation to simulator sickmess
(Howarth & Hodder, 2008; Kennedy, Stanney, & Dunlap, 2000).
Habituation refers to the participant’s ability to be less affected or not
affected at all by simulator sickness over time. Howarth and Hodder
(2008) measured participants’ simulator sickness across 10 days on a
virtual reality driving game that participants played for 20 minutes each
day. They found that symptom onset time increased as the number of
exposures to the virtual reality increased. By the end of the study, about
half of their participants felt no symptoms of simulator sickness after 20
minutes of exposure to the virtual reality driving game.
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It is important to consider the type of simulator used in simulator
sickness studies, sinee simulator sickness can be caused by a mismatch
between vestibular and visual system feedbaek. Driving is one domain
where simulators have beeome eommonplace in research and training.
While some driving simulators used for researeh and training do
ineorporate motion, most do not. To date, no studies have evaluated
simulator siekness with repeated exposures in a motion-base driving
simulator. The addition of vestibular feedbaek to simulated driving
environments in motion-base simulators may help reduce the mismatch
between the vestibular and visual systems, and reduee symptoms of
simulator siekness. As motion-base simulators become more eommon in
both training and researeh, it is becoming increasingly important to
understand the prevalence and severity of motion sickness in motion-base
simulators. If motion-base driving simulators are effeetive at minimizing
symptoms of simulator sickness then they may be a more eomfortable and
valid testing and training environment for researehers and practitioners.
The eurrent study explores whether patterns of simulator sickness
observed in previous fixed-base driving simulator studies would be similar
or different than patterns of simulator sickness exhibited in a motion-base
driving simulator. As deseribed above, two separate simulator sickness
patterns have been described in fixed-base driving simulators. The first is
a reduction in simulator sickness seores over repeated exposures on
different days (Howarth & Hodder, 2008). The second pattern is an
inerease in simulator sickness as time in the simulator increases within any
one session (Park et al., 2008). This study examined simulator sickness
ratings across multiple exposures during three different days in a motion-
base simulator with 90 degrees of yaw motion (to simulate turning) and 1
degree of pitch motion (to simulate acceleration and braking). Based on
previous researeh, it was hypothesized that simulator siekness ratings
would inerease as exposure time to the simulated environment increased
during repeated exposures during a single day. Conversely, mean
simulator sickness ratings for each subsequent exposure to the simulator
were hypothesized to decrease aeross the three days of the study.
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Method
Participants
A total of 67 individuals were enrolled in this study. Recruitment
was limited to individuals between the ages of 1 8 and 64 (average age of
28.7) with a minimum of 2 years driving experience (average of 11.2
years), a valid driver’s license, and normal or corrected to normal hearing
and vision. Participants above the age of 64 were excluded from this
study, because older people tend to have a higher susceptibility to
simulator sickness than younger people and they were not the focus of this
study. Six participants dropped out of the study due to simulator sickness,
one participant was removed from analysis due to being above the age
limitation in this study and one participant’s simulator sickness data were
not recorded on the final drive of day 1 due to equipment malfunction.
Participants were compensated $60 total for completing the study - $10
after the first day and $50 upon completion on the third day. Participants
who withdrew from the study all withdrew at the beginning of the first day
and were compensated $5.
Apparatus
I'he George Mason University motion-base driving simulator was
used in this study (see Figure 1). The simulator is an open back design
consisting of the driver’s side of a 2002 Ford Focus cab with three 42-inch
plasma displays with a partial wrap-around field of view of 280 degrees
and a display refresh rate of 60 frames per second. The cab of the
simulator sits on a motion-base system that allows 90 degrees of yaw
motion to simulate turning, and 1 degree of pitch motion to simulate
braking and acceleration. A Tilliput 619GL-70NP/C/T 7-inch LCD
touchscreen display (Lilliput Electronics, Inc., City of Industry, CA) was
mounted on the center console to the right of the driver and was used for a
secondary task. Realtime Technologies, Inc.’s (RTI) SimVista (Version
2.28) was used to create the simulated driving scenario and RTFs
SimCreator was used to run the simulated environment.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Figure 1. George Mason University Driving Simulator
Measures
The Simulator Sickness Questionnaire (SSQ) was used to measure
participants’ subjective ratings of simulator sickness (Kennedy et al,
1993). The SSQ was developed to quantify simulator sickness by
quantifying simulator sickness symptoms into three separate categories:
Oculomotor, Disorientation, and Nausea. These three factors are then
weighted and combined to form an overall SSQ score. For the purposes of
this study, only the overall SSQ measure was examined.
Experimental Drives
Participants completed a total of 10 different driving scenarios
across 3 days. Each simulator driving scenario lasted between 7 and 12
minutes and consisted of the participant driving down a four-lane rural
highway, with two lanes traveling in each direction. Participants were
instructed to follow a lead vehicle for the duration of each drive at a speed
of 40 mph. During each drive, participants encountered one of four
possible forward collision events where they were required to brake
suddenly to avoid a crash. If a participant collided with another vehicle,
the participant’s vehicle would pass through the other vehicle and they
were instructed to continue driving as normal. Participants were exposed
to nine collision events spread across the 10 drives. Driving behavior data
during the events were collected as part of a larger study that will not be
reported here. Additionally, participants completed a visual-manual
secondary task while driving. This task required participants to listen to a
sequence of directions and then enter the same sequence using the Lilliput
touch screen display. This task was used for purposes other than the focus
of this study, however, it is important to note that glances to and from the
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8
forward view and the touch screen could influence simulator sickness
ratings.
Procedure
The study consisted of three sessions held on three separate days.
Sessions were separated by no more than three days. The first session was
about 1.5 hours in duration and the remaining 2 sessions were about 1
hour long. At the beginning of the first session, participants provided
consent and were screened for 20/20 visual acuity using a Rosenbaum
I ocket Screener (Armstrong Optical, Denison, TX) and normal hearing
using Digital Audiometer software (Digital Recordings, Halifax, Nova
Scotia). Participants were then screened for excessive motion sickness
using a motion sickness screener provided by the FHWA's Highway
Driving Simulator Tab by Dr. Chris Monk (personal communication,
Januarv' 2010). No subjects were ruled out of the study due to extreme
propensity for motion sickness based on the screener. Following
screening, participants completed a demographic survey and a baseline
Simulator Sickness Questionnaire (SSQ; Kennedy et al, 1993).
Next, participants drove an orientation scenario. In this scenario,
participants performed the secondary task while the vehicle was in park
lor two minutes, then they drove their simulated vehicle through a pre-
determined route through a city to become familiar with vehicle control,
and performed the secondary task while driving along a 4-lane highway
with no ambient traffic. After the first drive, participants completed the
SSQ again and then began the next drive. All subsequent drives consisted
of driving along a 4-lane highway with light ambient traffic. After every
drive, participants immediately completed the SSQ and were allowed up
to a 5 minute break.
In the first session, participants completed 4 drives (1 orientation
drive and 3 test drives), during the second and third sessions, participants
completed 3 drives each (all were test drives). Participants were dismissed
after the fourth drive in the first experimental session and after the third
drive in the second experimental session. Participants completed an
auditory test unrelated to the current study at the end of the third session
before being debriefed and dismissed.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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Results
The purpose of the current study was to examine changes in
simulator sickness ratings across multiple exposures to a motion-base
driving simulator within a single day and across different days. In order to
examine changes in simulator sickness across exposures in a single day,
simulator sickness ratings from the first drive in a session were compared
to the last drive in the session using a series of paired samples t-tests.
Figure 2 shows the SSQ means for the end of each drive across all three
days. There was not a significant change in simulator sickness ratings
from the first drive (M = 135.47, SD = 228.21) to the last drive (M =
146.57, SD = 223.14) of the first day, p > .05. There was a significant
change, however, in simulator sickness ratings from the first drive to the
last drive for the second day’s session and also for the third day’s session,
t (58)= -3.1, p < .05 and t (58)= -2.8, p < .05 respectively. Sickness
scores increased by 59% from the first (M= 58, SD = 87) to the final drive
(M= 92, SD = 126) on the second day and increased by 52% from the first
(M = 66, SD = 104) to the final drive (M = 100, SD = 154) on the third
day. These findings replicate prior research in fixed-base simulators,
which found that simulator sickness gets progressively worse as exposure
time increases within a single experimental session or day.
0
Drive U
Figure 2. Average Simulator Sickness Questionnaire scores for each drive across all 3
days. Error bars represent 1 Standard Error. An asterisk represents a significant difference
(p < .05).
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10
A one-way repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) was
conducted comparing the mean SSQ score for each session in order to
analyze average simulator sickness ratings across each day. All post hoc
pairwise comparisons were run with a Bonferroni correction. Mauchly’s
test indicated that sphericity was violated, ^(2) = 24.24, p < .05,
therefore, the degrees of freedom were corrected using the Greenhouse-
Geisser estimates of sphericity (e = .743). There was a significant
difference in simulator sickness scores across the three sessions (test
days), F{1.5, 86.2) = 7.5, p < .05. The mean SSQ rating for the first day
(M= 141.36, SD = 201.57) was significantly higher than the mean SSQ
for day 2{M= 79.69, SD = 102.72) p < .05, and day 3 (M= 83.14, SD =
124.13)/? < 0.05. There was no significant difference, however, in average
SSQ scores observed for day 2 and day 3. In summary, the average level
of simulator sickness experienced during a session dropped significantly
from the first day’s session to the second day’s session, but did not
continue to drop in the third day’s session as SSQ scores for session two
and session three were not significantly different.
200
180
160
140
w 120
2 100
Sf 80
60
40
20
0
1
2
3
Day
Figure 3. Average Simulator Sickness Questionnaire scores for each day. Error bars
represent 1 Standard Error. An asterisk represents a significant difference {p < .05).
Washington Academy of Sciences
Discussion
Simulators are an important tool in many types of vehicle operator
training {e.g. aviation, commercial driving, astronaut training, ship
helmsman training, etc.) as well as in applied research. Simulator sickness
is a common problem when using simulation in research or training
because it can threaten the validity and generalizability of study findings.
Simulator sickness can also lead to reduced performance in affected
participants, and in extreme cases can result in data loss due to participant
attrition. In training environments, simulator sickness can reduce trainee
performance and compromise the effectiveness and validity of the training
program. While there has been quite a bit of research on simulator
sickness using fixed-base simulators, there has not been much simulator
sickness research conducted using motion-base simulators. Motion-base
simulators provide important vestibular feedback that may help reduce
simulator sickness compared to their fixed-base counterparts.
The purpose of this study was to explore the severity of simulator
sickness within and across multiple sessions of exposure to a motion-base
driving simulator. Our results provide evidence that, similar to fixed-base
simulators, simulator sickness tends to increase throughout the duration of
a single experimental session even in motion-base simulators. These
findings replicate previous fixed-base driving simulator studies that found
simulator sickness tends to increase in severity within an experimental
session (Park et al, 2008; Kennedy, Stanney, & Dunlap, 2000; Stanney et
ai, 2003). According to Sensory Conflict Theory (Reason & Brand,
1975), the addition of motion should help people match visual feedback
with vestibular feedback provided by the simulator. However, in this
study, vestibular feedback provided by the motion-base system did not
seem to keep participants from experiencing increased simulator sickness
within a session. The SSQ scores were very similar to those of Park et al.
(2008) where they employed a driving simulation without motion. It could
be that in our study, there was too much lag between the graphics and
motion, or perhaps the motion did not accurately depict what one would
actually feel if they were driving a real car. Further research should be
conducted to better understand this interaction.
Research in fixed-base simulators has also indicated that simulator
sickness tends to decrease in severity across multiple sessions conducted
on separate days (Howarth & Hodder, 2008; Kennedy, Stanney, &
Dunlap, 2000). Findings in this motion-base simulator study replicated
past research in fixed-base driving simulators. Average simulator sickness
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12
ratings in sessions two and three were significantly lower than average
ratings in session one. However, there was no significant difference
between simulator sickness ratings in session two and three. Previous
studies that examined longitudinal exposure to simulator sickness found a
linear reduction in simulator sickness across time. In this study, there was
an immediate reduction in simulator sickness scores from session one to
session two (day 2), but no further reduction from session two to session
three (day 3). This suggests habituation (learning to adapt) to simulator
sickness occurred quickly in this study and did not require exposure over
multiple days unlike previous research using fixed-base simulators. This
finding suggests that motion-base simulators may facilitate quicker
habituation to simulated environments compared to fixed-base simulators.
However, this interpretation must be considered cautiously since it is not
entirely clear what directly led to such rapid habituation to simulator
sickness in this study. Habituation could have been due to the motion-base
capability of the simulator, the particular study duration employed, or to
some other unknown factors. Future research should compare simulator
sickness ratings during exposures to fixed-base and motion-base
simulators and multiple motion-base simulators over longer periods of
time.
Limitations and Future Research
One limitation of simulator sickness research in general, is that the
population of greatest interest (those who get simulator sick) often drop
out of the study. In this particular study, 6 participants dropped out due to
motion sickness; 5 of them dropped out after the first drive. Of the 5
participants who dropped out of the study after the first drive, but still felt
well enough to complete the motion sickness questionnaire, their mean
SSQ score was 670 {SD = 162). This is five times higher than the mean
SSQ score for participants who completed the study (M= 134, SD = 226).
While this could be interpreted as a floor effect where the majority of
participants did not feel sick because there was minimal sickness in the
study, this is not necessarily the case. In the study, the average SSQ rating
for participants who did not get sick ranged from 58 to 146.6. This is a
comparable range in SSQ rating compared to other experiments (Park et
al., 2008). Participants who are most susceptible to simulator sickness
offer the most variability in studies of this type and can potentially provide
much more information about factors underlying motion sickness.
In conclusion, this study provides evidence that participants in
motion-base driving simulators experience similar patterns of symptoms
Washington Academy of Sciences
13
of simulator sickness as participants in fixed-base simulators. As simulator
time increases for any one day, on average, so does simulator sickness.
While simulator siekness over successive days tends to decrease in both
fixed-base and motion-base simulators, the slope of the decline appears to
be dissimilar. In the current study, sickness appeared to decrease
drastically between day 1 and day 2, and then level out on day 3. In other
studies using a fixed-base simulator, the change over time has been more
gradual, yet consistent over time. Future study designs should include
longer drives than used in the current study as well as an increased number
of days of experimentation to better understand the nature of this
relationship.
Acknowledgements
This article is based upon a talk given by Erik T. Nelson at the Potomac
Chapter of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society’s mini-symposium
on driver performance. The symposium was held at the National Science
Foundation, Arlington, Virginia in conjunction with the Washington
Academy of Sciences’ CapSci weekend event March 28 ,2010.
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dizziness. Journal of Safety Research 34, 361 - 369.
Gower, D.W., & Fowkles, J.E., 1989. Simulator sickness in the UH-60 (Black Hawk)
flight simulator (USAARL Technical Report No. 89-25). Fort Rucker, AL: U.S.
Army Aeromedical Research Laboratory.
Howarth, P.A. & Hodder, S.G., 2008. Characteristics of habituation to motion in a virtual
environment. Displays 29, 1 17 - 123.
Johnson, D.M., 2005. Introduction to and review of simulator sickness research. (ARI
Technical Report No. 1832). Arlington, VA; U.S. Army Research Institute for
the Behavioral and Social Sciences.
Kellogg, R.S., Kennedy, R.S., & Graybiel, A., 1965. Motion sickness symptomatology of
labyrinthine defective and normal subjects during zero gravity maneuvers.
Aerospace Medicine 36, 3 1 4 - 3 1 8.
Kennedy, R.S., Lane, N.L., Berbaum, K.S., & Lilienthal, M.G., 1993. Simulator sickness
questionnaire: an enhanced method for quantifying simulator sickness. The
International Journal of Aviation Psychology 3 (3), 203 - 220.
Kennedy, R.S., Stanney, K.M., & Dunlap, W.P., 2000. Duration and exposure to virtual
environments: sickness curves during and across sessions. Presence 9 (5) 463 -
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Kolasinski, L.M., 1995. Simulator sickness in virtual environments (ARI Technical
Report No. 1027). Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the
Behavioral and Social Sciences.
Park, J., Lim, D., Lee, S., Lee, H., Choi, M., & Chung, S., 2008. Long-term study of
simulator sickness: differences in LLG response due to individual sensitivity.
International Journal of Neuroscience 1 18, 857 - 865.
Reason, J.T & Brand, J.J., 1975. Motion sickness. Academic Press, New York.
Stanney, K.M., Kingdon, K.S., Nahmens, 1. & Kennedy, R.S., 2003. What to expect from
immersive virtual environment exposure: influences of age, gender, body mass
index, and past experience. Human Factors 45 (3), 504 - 520.
Wang, S.C. & Chinn, H.I., 1956. Experimental motion sickness in dogs. American
Journal of Physiology 1 85, 6 1 7 - 623.
Whitney, S.L., Sparto, P.J., Hodges, L.F., Babu, S.V., Furman, J.M., & Redfem, M.S.,
2006. Responses to a virtual reality grocery store in persons with and without
vestibular dysfunction. CyberPsychology & Behavior 9 (2), 152 - 156.
Washington Academy of Sciences
15
Enhanced Rear Signaling (ERS) for Heavy Trucks:
Mitigating Rear-end Truck Crashes Using Visual Warning
Signals
William A. Schaudt, Darrell S. Bowman, Joseph Bocanegra,
Riehard J. Hanowski
Virginia Tech Transportation Institute
Chris Flanigan
Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration
Abstract
In 2006, there were approximately 23,500 rear-end crashes involving heavy
trucks on roadways in the United States of America. Of these crashes, 135
resulted in fatalities and 1,603 resulted in incapacitating injuries (Schaudt et al.,
in press). The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) contracted
with the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to investigate methods to
reduce or mitigate those crashes where a heavy truck has been struck from
behind by another vehicle. The most prevalent contributing factor is that of the
following-vehicle driver looking away, either into the vehicle interior or to the
outside (but not the forward view) just prior to a crash. Most previous work on
prevention of rear-end crashes has been directed toward attention-getting and
eye-drawing mechanisms; that is, trying to get the following-vehicle driver to
look forward at the vehicle ahead instead of continuing to look away. The
Enhanced Rear Signaling (ERS) for Heavy Trucks project investigated many
categories of rear-end crash countermeasures which included both visual and
auditory warning signals. The purpose of introducing a visual warning signal,
the focus of this paper, was to redirect the driver's attention and visual glance to
the forward view. This paper will provide an overview of testing performed with
visual warning signals positioned on the rear of a heavy truck trailer. These
visual warning signals were tested using a static method (parked vehicles with
individuals not driving) to determine how well various configurations of visual
warning signals would provide improved eye-drawing capabilities. Two static
experiments were performed to down-select several visual warning signal
configurations prior to dynamic testing (moving vehicle with an individual
driving) on the Virginia Smart Road. The results found that two ERS lighting
configurations performed the best and were selected to move forward to the
dynamic Smart Road tests.
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Introduction
The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration
(FMCSA) contracted with the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute
(VTTI) to investigate methods to reduce or mitigate those crashes where a
heavy truck has been struck from behind by another vehicle. This
particular collision type results in higher-than-usual rates of fatalities and
injuries compared to types of rear-end crashes in which the lead vehicle is
a light vehicle (e.g. four-wheel passenger car). For many years research
involving light vehicles has been ongoing at VTTI regarding how to use
rear lighting to help prevent rear-end crashes. The results of that research
were leveraged to aid in the design of Enhanced Rear Signaling (ERS) for
heavy trucks in this project (Wierwille, Lee, and DeHart, 2003; Wierwille,
Lee, and Dehart, 2005; and Wierwille, Llaneras, and Neurauter, 2009). A
visual warning can be placed where it is needed and it can be designed so
that its meaning is nearly unambiguous. Visual warnings have been shown
to be effective, assuming the following driver is looking directly at the
warning display or has his/her eyes drawn to it. Earlier research at VTTI
used data from the 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study (Lee et al., 2007).
The 1 00-Car Study was performed to determine how drivers were actually
using their vehicles and why (in a technical sense) crashes occur.
Unobtrusive instrumentation was used. In all, 10 rear-end crashes occurred
over the duration of the study. The most relevant finding was that drivers
having long eyes-off-road glances were most likely to have crashes
(including rear-end crashes). This result underscores the importance of
eye-drawing capability for rear warning- lights.
The most recent work carried out at VTTI involved the conversion
of incandescent lighting to Light-emitting Diode (LED) technology for
light vehicles (Wierwille, Lee, and DeHart, 2003). The main question to
be answered was whether or not modern LED lighting could be substituted
for incandescent lighting tested in previous studies {e.g. Traffic Clearing
Lamps), while achieving comparable results in terms of attention-getting
and eye-drawing. To obtain an answer, a variety of light-vehicle and
heavy-vehicle lighting units were measured for light output and for beam-
width. The results clearly showed that one heavy-vehicle unit had the
highest on-axis output, but also had a very narrow beam-width (Figure 1).
Other computations showed that if individual light units were ganged they
could compete successfully with incandescent light units in terms of on-
axis light output. In addition, the narrow beam-width of the selected LED
Washington Academy of Sciences
17
units would be useful in directing the light backward without emitting
high output in adjacent lanes — a desirable feature.
4 in
(10.16 cm)
Round 4 inch Diameter Stop Lamp (Red in Color)
• On-axis Output Measurement at 8m (lux): 4 11
• On-axis Equivalent Source Output (cd): 263
• Half Output Total Horizontal Beam Width (deg): 7
• Number of Active LEDs: 40
• Approximate On-axis Output per LED (cd/LED): 6 58
• Current Draw at 13.5V (milliamps): 271
• Power Consumed at 13.5V (watts): 3 66
Figure 1. Heavy-vehicle LED unit proviciing the highest on-axis output with a very
narrow beam-width.
These results were used to develop a display board of a light
vehicle for testing purposes (Wierwille, Lee, and Dehart, 2003). This
display board used a photographic applique over a metal backing. At
distances beyond 60 ft (18.29 m), it was quite difficult to tell that the
display board was not an actual vehicle. Testing with the display board
showed that flashing all rear lighting simultaneously resulted in high
attention-getting ratings and good eye-drawing capability (Wierwille, Lee,
and Dehart, 2003). Other results showed that the median optimum
frequency of flash was 5.0 Hz for simultaneous flash of all lamps. In an
experiment investigating eye-drawing capability in which drivers were
purposely distracted by a navigation task, normal brake-level lighting
(baseline condition) did not exhibit any eye-drawing capability, whereas
the simultaneous flashing of all rear lights at increased brightness resulted
in a 56 percent look-up rate among the following- vehicle participants on
first (uninformed) presentation. These results were for data collected
during bright daylight conditions with the sun shining on the display
(Wierwille, Lee, and Dehart, 2003).
Previous work suggested that lighting similar to that developed for
light vehicles should also be used for heavy trucks; namely, multiple high-
output LED units that flash simultaneously at a 5-Hz frequency
(Wierwille, Llaneras, and Neurauter, 2009). It was determined by VTTI
researchers that these experiments did not need to be repeated for heavy
trucks. The results also suggested that the round LED units with the
highest output did not need to be modified. However, because of their
narrow beam-width it would be necessary to properly aim the lights so that
Fall 2010
18
the following driver s eyes would be within the main beam. Details
regarding aiming procedures are described later in Experiment 1 . Several
visual warning signal configurations of round LED units were developed
and tested in two static experiments. The purpose of these experiments
were to down-select several visual warning signal configurations prior to
dynamic testing (moving vehicle with an individual driving) on the
Virginia Smart Road. This paper will describe the two static experiments
performed and results obtained.
Static Experimentation
Purpose and Objectives
The purpose of static testing was to determine how well various
rear-lighting configurations would provide improved eye-drawing
capabilities as well as improved attention-getting and discomfort-glare
performance. Static testing was used first to down-select rear warning-
light configurations prior to follow-on dynamic testing that was to be
performed on the Virginia Smart Road. Two static experiments were
performed in total. Each experiment and the results obtained are discussed
below.
Experiment 1
Method
Study Design
A total of 84 naive drivers (no previous exposure to the rear-
lighting configurations) participated. Half of the participants were males
and half were females. Approval for participant experimentation was
approved by the Virginia Tech Institutional Review Board (IRB) Human
Assurances Committee. The age of participants ranged between 20 and 62
years old (mean of 41.4 years; median of 42.5 years). Counterbalancing of
two conditions was performed (z.e., gender and lighting configuration).
Data were collected during the day from 9:00 a.m. Eastern Standard Time
(EST) to 5:30 p.m. EST. Time of day was not considered in the
counterbalancing; however, participants were randomly assigned to the
available time slots in order to avoid potential sunlight angle bias.
Both performance and opinion data were gathered during this
experiment. The main aspect of the performance testing was determining
the eye-drawing capability of each rear-lighting configuration. The
number of occurrences of eye-drawing {Look-ups) and the time to redirect
their gaze to the forward roadway {Time To Look-up) were measured and
Washington Academy of Sciences
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served as the primary dependent measures in this experiment. An
uninformed event deteetion paradigm (administered before drivers were
informed about the true purpose of the study) was used for eaeh
experiment that was designed during previous V TTl rear-lighting research
(Wierwille, Llaneras, and Neurauter, 2009). This method had the purpose
of assessing eye-drawing capability of each rear-lighting configuration
(rear-lighting configurations for these uninformed trials were treated as a
between-subjects factor). In total, six rear-lighting configurations were
tested using all 84 participants (14 participants per rear-lighting
configuration). The use of this between-subjects design was necessary
because after each participant was exposed to the surprise event
(uninformed event) re-exposure would not provide the same effect.
Subjective rating scales were also administered to a portion of the
participants. Twenty-four of the 84 participants filled out attention-getting
and discomfort-glare rating scales at multiple light-vehicle positions
behind the heavy truck trailer. The reason for using these unequal numbers
was that the use of 24 participants was found to be sufficient to test a
group of six different rear-lighting configurations using a totally within-
subject design. The use of 84 participants was used to obtain sufficient
statistical power for the between-subjects design portion of the experiment
(14 per condition).
Apparatus
The research team installed six rear-lighting configurations on the
rear of a Class 8 heavy truck trailer for static testing (five rear warning-
light configurations, one normal brake-light configuration) (Figure 2). All
five rear warning-light configurations were composed of numerous high-
output LED units selected from previous research. Three of the five rear
warning-light configurations contained LED units that were ganged
closely together on the main bumper. The baseline lighting configuration
was composed of two normal LED units already installed on the trailer.
All lighting configurations are further summarized as follows:
1. Main Bumper - Twelve high-output EED units ganged and
positioned on the rear main bumper,
2. Cargo Box - Six high-output EED units positioned on the rear
of the cargo box,
3. ICC Bumper - Five high-output EED units positioned on the
Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) bumper.
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4. Main Bumper/Cargo Box - Twelve high-output LED units
ganged and positioned on the rear main bumper and six LED
units positioned on the rear of the cargo box,
5. Main Bumper/ICC Bumper - Twelve high-output LED units
ganged and positioned on the rear main bumper and five LED
units positioned on the ICC bumper, and
6. Baseline (Normal Brake Lights) - Two normal (installed by
trailer manufacturer) LED-unit brake light configurations.
. . . p ^ I fa- p p
Mam Bumper Cargo Box ICC Bumper
] p o g [
Main Bumper w/ Cargo Main Bumper w/ ICC Baseline (Normal Brake
Box Bumper Lights)
Figure 2. All six rear-lighting configurations used in Experiment I.
Preliminary analyses were performed in which vertical aim was
adjusted according to potential height locations on the back of the trailer
and horizontal aim was adjusted according to potential following-vehicle
positions. Because following-driver eye height varies as a function of
seated stature and type of vehicle, these eye heights were necessary to
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21
account for. While vertical aiming was extremely important, horizontal
aiming was also considered. Horizontal aiming included turning the units
located toward the sides of the trailer inward slightly (2.5 deg), so that
adjacent lane drivers would not be subjected to high-output warnings.
Because of the narrow output beam-width of the units, it was possible to
minimize adjacent lane output while concentrating energy directly behind
the trailer where it would be needed for rear-end collision avoidance.
During the uninformed event detection portion of the experiment,
participants sat in the driver seat of a late model sedan (light vehicle)
positioned 100 ft (30.48 m) directly behind the heavy truck trailer.
Participants were instructed by the lead experimenter (sitting in the
passenger seat) to follow along and complete in-vehicle navigation system
tasks. These tasks were intended to distract each participant’s gaze away
from the forward roadway. Similar to earlier research (Wierwille,
Llaneras, and Neurauter, 2009), the navigation system display and controls
were located at a horizontal angle of approximately 30 deg to the right of
the on-axis forward glance position and at a vertical downward angle of
approximately 18 deg (subject to error from variation in participant seat
position).
Lighting activation was controlled by the experimenter in the
passenger seat of the light vehicle. A small button, hidden from the view
of the driver, was used to activate the rear-lighting configurations through
a wireless signal sent from the light-vehicle’s Data Acquisition System
(DAS) and received by a wireless antenna under the trailer. Upon
activation of each rear warning-light configuration, lights would flash
simultaneously at a 5 -Hz frequency for a period of 5 seconds. Upon
activation of the baseline configuration, steady brake lighting (no
simultaneous flashing) was initiated for a period of 5 seconds. The time
period of 5 seconds was chosen based on rear-lighting activation
algorithms developed in previous light-vehicle research at VTTl
(Wierwille, Lee, and DeHart, 2003). These algorithms show that a crash
will be imminent if action is not taken within 5 seconds of light activation.
Four camera views were recorded inside the light vehicle by the DAS.
Views recorded included the driver’s face, forward view, an over-the-
shoulder view, and brake pedal view.
Procedure
Upon arrival at VTTI, each participant read and signed an initial
information sheet informed consent form. Next, participants were asked to
show a valid driver’s license, and a brief informal hearing test and three
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22
vision tests were administered. The informal hearing test consisted of the
experimenter reading four statements aloud and instructing each
participant to correctly repeat back what he/she heard. The first vision test
was a Snellen test to ensure that vision acuity was within the legal driving
limit (corrected to 20/40). Immediately following, the Ishihara Color
Vision test was also administered (Ishihara, 1917). The experimenter
recorded each participant’s ability to detect color, but it was not part of the
eligibility criteria. The final vision test administered was the Useful Field
of View (UFOV) test which was a computer-administered and computer-
scored test of functional vision and visual attention. This test has been
shown in previous research to be a good predictor of driving performance
(Myers et al, 2000). As with the ability to detect color, the results of the
UFOV test had no effect on eligibility for participation. No participants
were dismissed due to ineligibility (all participants had sufficient vision
and/or hearing). After the screening session was complete, each
participant was escorted to an asphalt test-pad area at VTTI. Each
participant was asked to sit in the driver seat of a light vehicle positioned
100 ft (30.48 m) behind a heavy truck trailer in the same lane. Although
participants were aware that the heavy truck trailer was parked in front of
the light vehicle, they were not aware that it was in any way associated
with the in-vehicle navigation display tasks they were asked to perform.
As mentioned previously, participants were instructed by the experimenter
to complete several in-vehicle navigation system tasks. There were three
tasks performed which were intended to distract each participant’s gaze
away from the forward roadway and, while participants were involved in
the task, the assigned rear-lighting configuration was initiated. Each of
these tasks is further described below in the order that they were
administered:
1 . Exposure 1 - Eight activation triggered while receiving
experimenter instruction on use of the in-vehicle navigation
system display (observing only; low level of visual, cognitive,
and manual loading; only event which was truly unanticipated
across all participants),
2. Exposure 2 - Eight activation triggered while selecting among
available menu items on the navigation system display
(participant interaction; medium level of visual, cognitive, and
manual loading), and
3. Exposure 3 - Eight activation triggered during text entry on the
navigation system display (participant interaction; high level of
visual, cognitive, and manual loading).
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As previously menlioned, this uninformed event detection
paradigm was successfully executed in previous rear-lighting research
(Wierwille, Llaneras, and Neurauter, 2009). Participants were not driving
during these navigation system tasks, and therefore had no need to look
forward. However, the hypothesis behind this method was that effective
lighting configurations would still draw visual attention to the forward
view. Upon completion of the navigation system tasks, participants were
asked a series of debriefing questions, told the true purpose of the
research, and then returned to the main building at VTTI to review the
formal debriefing form and sign the investigative project informed consent
form. Twenty-four of the 84 participants were then invited to participate in
a rear-lighting configuration ratings session by reviewing and signing the
subjective-ratings informed consent fonn. All 24 participants invited
agreed to participate. Each of these participants were again escorted back
to the asphalt pad study area and returned to the light-vehicle’s driver seat.
As mentioned previously, the two ratings scales that participants used to
rate each rear-lighting configuration were attention-getting and
discomfort-glare. After completion of all ratings for each rear-lighting
configuration, participants were returned to the main building at VTTI,
compensated, and thanked for their time.
Results
Uninformed Event Detection Results
The uninformed event detection portion of this experiment had the
purpose of determining how well six rear-lighting configurations would
provide improved eye-drawing capabilities. The number of Look-ups after
rear lighting was initiated, as well as the Time To Look-up between the
signal initiation and the participant’s look-up response, was obtained. As
previously mentioned, all rear-lighting configurations were displayed for a
total of 5 seconds after initiation. If the participant did not look up, a value
of 5 seconds was assigned on the assumption that this would be the
minimum time in which the participant might have looked up. There were
two occasions when a participant looked up after a rear-lighting
configuration had already been extinguished (after 5 seconds) and in these
situations a value of 5 seconds was assigned.
The first analysis performed using Time To Look-up as the primary
variable of interest was across all three exposures (z.c.. Exposure 7,
Exposure 2, and Exposure 3). A two-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
was performed with rear-lighting configuration as a between-subjects
variable with six levels and exposure as a within-subject variable with
Fall 2010
24
three levels. Main effects were found for both rear-lighting configuration
and exposure. The main effect of rear-lighting configuration was
significant at F(5,78) = 3.81,/? < 0.0038. The main effect of exposure was
significant at F(2,156) = 11.65, p < 0.0001. The interaction of these two
variables was also found to be significant at F(10,156) = 2.92, p < 0.0022.
The interaction is plotted in Figure 3. Although the results show
significant main effects for both lighting configuration and exposure, the
interaction provides insight into what is actually causing a difference in
Time To Look-up for this analysis. As is seen in Figure 3, Exposure 1
shows much lower mean values for Time To Look-up in three of the six
lighting configuration categories. By further slicing the interaction and
holding exposure level constant, we find that Exposure 1 is shown to be
significant at F(5,78) = 12.67, p < 0.0001. Exposure 2 and Exposure 3
were not significant; F(5,78) = 2.06, p = 0.0739 and F(5,78) = 0.84, p =
0.526, respectively. These results indicate that Exposure 1 should be of
primary focus for remaining analyses and suggest that as the cognitive
demand increased with each exposure, the possibility of perceptual
narrowing may have occurred which mimics previous research results
(Wierwille, Tlaneras, and Neurauter, 2009). It is also important to note
that Exposure 1 was the only event which was truly unanticipated across
all participants (once a participant was exposed to the rear-lighting
configuration in Exposure 7, anticipation of further rear-lighting activation
may have been present).
■ Exposure 1 (Low Demand) Exposure 2 (Moderate Demand) ■ Exposure 3 (High Demand)
c
™ Baseline Main Bumper Cargo Box ICC Bumper Main Bumper Main Bumper
2 (Normal Brake w/ Cargo Box w/ ICC
Lights) Bumper
Lighting Configuration
Figure 3. Mean Time To Look-up for all lighting exposures as a function of lighting
configuration (statistically significant differences found for Main Bumper, Main
Bumper/Cargo Box, and Main Bumper/ICC Bumper during Exposure 1 only).
Washington Academy of Sciences
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The next analysis performed using Time To Look-up as the variable
of interest was on the Exposure 1 only (the only situation that was
unanticipated across all participants). A one-way, between-subjects
ANOVA was performed. Results showed significance with F(5,78) =
4.47, p < 0.0012. A Duncan’s multiple range test was also performed to
determine where significant differences occurred between rear-lighting
configurations (Winer, Brown, and Michaels, 1991). These results are
shown in Figure 4. In Figure 4, means with a common letter (z.e., A or B)
do not differ significantly at the a = 0.05 level. The figure shows that the
Baseline, ICC Bumper, and Cargo Box rear-lighting configurations did not
cause any participants to look up and thus each report a mean Time To
Look-up of 5 seconds (the maximum duration of the light exposure). The
Main Bumper/Cargo Box, the Main Bumper alone, and the Main
Bumper/ICC Bumper rear warning-light configurations were the only ones
that caused any Look-ups and all were significantly better at reducing the
eye-drawing time.
Baseline ICC Bumper Cargo Box Main Main Main
(Normal Bumper w/ Bumper Bumper w/
Brake Lights) Cargo Box ICC Bumper
Lighting Configuration
Figure 4. Mean Time To Look-up for Exposure 7 as a function of lighting configuration
(means with a common letter \i.e., A or B] do not differ significantly at the a = 0.05
level).
Rating Scale Results
As previously mentioned, attention-getting ratings and discomfort-
glare ratings were obtained from 24 of the 84 participants. Participants
provided an attention-getting rating for each rear-lighting configuration
while fixating directly ahead at the lighting and another while fixating 30
Fall 2010
26
deg off-axis. Participants provided a discomfort-glare rating for each rear-
lighting configuration while fixating directly ahead at the lighting and
another while stationary in an adjacent lane and fixating ahead in the lane
(looking past the lighting display).
The three rear warning-light configurations that contained the
Main Bumper ganged- lighting had better attention-getting ratings while
the participants were fixating directly ahead at the rear of the trailer. When
participants provided attention-getting ratings while fixating 30 deg off-
axis, the highest rated rear warning-light configurations were the Main
Bumper/Cargo Box, and the Main Bumper/ICC Bumper. The Main
Bumper lighting configuration was rated a very close second. For the
discomfort-glare ratings while fixating directly at the lighting, the three
rear warning-light configurations that contained the Main Bumper ganged-
lighting in common once again provided higher ratings. These mean
ratings were still in the middle range for glare (not falling in the
“undesirable category”). For the discomfort-glare ratings while stationary
in an adjacent lane and fixating ahead in the lane (looking past the lighting
display), the three rear warning-light configurations with the Main Bumper
ganged-lighting in common once again had the highest reported ratings.
These mean ratings were in the low range for glare (indicating above
satisfactory levels of glare).
Experiment 1 Conclusions
All results clearly indicated that the three rear warning-light
configurations that contained the Main Bumper ganged-lighting performed
the best in regards to eye-drawing and ratings performance. These rear
warning-light configurations (z.e.. Main Bumper, Main Bumper/Cargo
Box, and Main Bumper/ICC Bumper) were determined to be the best
candidates to move forward to the dynamic Smart Road tests. This result
corresponds to previous research which has also shown that ganging
multiple LED units together can improve eye-drawing performance
(Wierwille, Tlaneras, and Neurauter, 2009). After further consideration,
researchers determined that new rear warning-light configurations needed
to be developed and again tested in a second experiment to further explore
ganging LED units in locations other than the Main Bumper area. It was
determined that one rear warning-light configuration of 12 ganged LED
units should be positioned high on each side of the cargo box, and another
1 2 ganged LED units positioned on the ICC bumper. The potential benefit
of a high-location rear warning-light configuration would be to help in
reducing a rear-end collision from the following vehicle immediately
Washington Academy of Sciences
27
behind the trailer, as well as multiple other vehicles further behind in the
same lane. However, results from static testing showed that the Main
Bumper/ICC Bumper configuration showed slightly higher eye-drawing
capabilities (although not statistically significant) raising the question as to
whether ganged-lighting positioned lower would be more beneficial
overall. Testing these remaining two ganged rear warning-light
configurations in a second static experiment would allow further insight
into two areas: 1) determination of whether ganged-lighting would also
perform well in both high and low locations on the trailer, and 2)
determination of the final two most promising concepts to move forward
to the dynamic testing on the Smart Road.
Experiment 2
Method
Study Design
A total of 28 naive drivers (no previous exposure to the lighting
configurations) participated in an uninformed event detection paradigm
with two new rear warning-light configurations. The performance data
from these 28 new drivers were then analyzed in comparison to data from
Experiment 1 . The data to be used from Experiment f for the comparison
were from the 28 participants who received the Baseline configuration and
the Main Bumper configuration. Therefore, the total number of
participants to be used in the analysis was 56. Half of the participants were
males and half were females. The age of all 56 participants ranged
between 21 and 63 years old (mean of 40.5 years; median of 37.0 years).
Counterbalancing of two conditions was performed {i.e., gender and
lighting configuration). The recruitment procedure used for the new 28
participants in Experiment 2 was identical to the recruitment procedure
used in Experiment 1 .
During Experiment 2, only performance data were gathered. The
main aspect of the performance testing was determining the eye-drawing
capability of each rear-lighting configuration. The number of Look-ups
and the Time To Look-up were measured and served as the main
dependent measures. The same uninformed event detection paradigm was
used from Experiment 1. In total, two rear warning-light configurations
were tested using all 28 newly recruited participants (14 participants per
lighting configuration).
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28
Twelve-light Cargo Box Twelve-light ICC Bumper
Figure 5. Two new rear warning-light configurations used in Experiment 2.
Apparatus
Two new rear warning-light configurations installed on the rear of
a heavy truck trailer were used during Experiment 2 (Figure 5). Each high-
output LED unit was aimed appropriately, both vertically and horizontally
according to the location on the back of the trailer (as was performed in
Experiment 1). The two rear warning-light configurations are summarized
as follows:
1. Twelve-light Cargo Box - Twelve high-output LED units
ganged and positioned high on the rear of the cargo box,
2. Twelve-light ICC Bumper - Twelve high-output LED units
positioned along the ICC bumper.
All other equipment used for the uninformed event detection
portion of Experiment 2 was identical to that used in Experiment 1.
Procedure
The procedures performed in Experiment 2 were identical to those
of Experiment 1, with the exception that no ratings were administered.
Results
Experiment 2 had the purpose of determining how well each new
rear warning- light configuration would provide improved eye-drawing
capabilities. The frequency of Look-ups, as well as the Time To Look-up,
was obtained. Because the procedures were identical, the two new rear
warning-light configurations were compared to the Baseline configuration
Washington Academy of Sciences
29
and the Main Bumper configuration results from Experiment 1 . Results in
this section for Experiment 2 are presented in similar format to the
Experiment 1 results section (with the exception that no ratings section
will be presented).
The first analysis performed using Time To Look-up as the primary
variable of interest was across all three exposures. A two-way ANOVA
was performed with rear-lighting configuration as a between-subjects
variable with four levels and exposure as a within-subject variable with
three levels. A main effect was found for exposure, but not for rear-
lighting configuration. The main effect of exposure was significant at
F(2,104) = 1.02, p < 0.0014. For rear-lighting configuration, the effect was
not significant at F(3,52) = 1.38, p = 0.2592. The interaction of these two
variables was found to be significant at F"(6,104) = 2.23, p < 0.0459. The
interaction is plotted in Figure 6.
Although the results show a significant main effect for exposure,
the interaction provides insight into what is actually causing a difference
in Time To Look-up for this analysis. As is seen in Figure 6, Exposure 1
shows lower mean values for Time To Look-up in three of the four rear-
lighting configuration categories. By further slicing the interaction and
holding exposure level constant, we find that Exposure 1 was indeed
shown to be significant at F(3,52) = 6.6, p < 0.0004. Exposure 2 and
Exposure 3 were not significant; F(3,52) = .41, p = 0.7471 and F(3,52) ==
.23, p = 0.8771, respectively. As was found in the Experiment 1 results,
these results indicate that Exposure 1 should be of primary focus for
remaining analyses and suggest that as the cognitive demand increased
with each exposure, the possibility of perceptual narrowing may have
occurred.
Fall 2010
30
■ Exposure 1 (Low Demand) k Exposure 2 (Moderate Demand) ■ Exposure 3 (High Demand)
c
2 Baseline (Normal Twelve-light Cargo Twelve-light ICC Main Bumper
§ Brakelights) Box Bumper
Lighting Configuration
Figure 6. Mean Time To Look-up for all lighting exposures as a function of lighting
configuration (statistically significant difference found for Main Bumper during Exposure
1 only).
The next analysis performed using Time To Look-up as the variable
of interest was on Exposure 1 only (the only situation that was
unantieipated across all participants). A one-way, between-subjects
ANOVA was performed. The effect of duration for Exposure 1 was nearly
significant at F(3,52) = 2.6, p < 0.0621. Although the effect was not
significant, a Duncan’s multiple range test was performed to determine if
significant differences occurred between lighting configurations (Winer,
Brown, and Michels, 1991). These results are shown in Figure 7. In Figure
7, means with a common letter do not differ significantly at the a = 0.05
level. Figure 7 shows that the Baseline configuration did not cause any
participants to look up and, therefore, reports a mean Time To Look-up of
5 seconds (the maximum duration of the light exposure). The Main
Bumper^ the new Twelve-light ICC Bumper, and the new Twelve-light
Cargo Box rear warning-light configurations were the only ones that
resulted in any look-ups. However, the Main Bumper was the only
countermeasure that had a significantly lower eye-drawing time as
compared to Baseline.
Washington Academy of Sciences
31
(/)
■a
c
o
u
0)
10
Q.
3
JS^
O
o
o
4->
(U
£
c
ro
(U
Baseline (Normal Twelve-light Cargo Twelve-light ICC Main Bumper
Brakelights) Box Bumper
Lighting Configuration
Figure 7. Mean Time to Look-up for Exposure 7 as a function of lighting configuration
(means with a common letter [i.e., A or B] do not differ significantly at the a = 0.05
level).
Experiment 2 Conclusions
Experiment 2 results clearly indicated that the Main Bumper rear
warning-light configuration performed the best with regard to reduced
eye-drawing time. The other two test configurations did result in look-ups,
but were not statistically significant. This result corresponds to previous
research which has also shown that ganging multiple TED units together
at bumper height can improve eye-drawing performance (Wierwille,
Llaneras, and Neurauter, 2009). It appears that a reduction in eye-drawing
power may result in static situations the further one positions the ganged-
lighting above or below the main bumper of the lead vehicle.
Discussion
Experiment 1 results indicated that rear warning-light
configurations containing the Main Bumper ganged-lighting performed the
best. The two concepts that showed the most promise appeared to be the
Main Bumper ganged-lighting and the Main Bumper/ICC Bumper.
Experiment 2 results indicated that ganging multiple EED units together in
both high and low locations resulted in Look-ups. fhe concept that showed
the most promise appeared to once again be the Main Bumper ganged-
lighting. After further consideration, researchers determined that any
further lighting configurations tested should contain ganged-lighting.
Fall 2010
32
Based on results from both Experiment 1 and Experiment 2,
lighting configurations chosen to move forward to the dynamic Smart
Road tests were the Main Bumper rear warning-light configuration, and a
new hybrid configuration that contained the Main Bumper combined with
the Twelve-light ICC Bumper. These would be tested in comparison to
Baseline. The purpose of the dynamic Smart Road testing would be to
select a final rear warning-light candidate based on eye-drawing
performance. This final candidate would then be incorporated into a final
ERS system that would utilize following-vehicle approach speeds
collected via radar and activate the rear warning-lights based on collision
avoidance algorithms.
Acknowledgements
The authors of this report wish to thank individuals at VTTI who
contributed to the study in various ways: Andrew Alden, Jared Bryson,
Sherri Cook, Carl Cospel, Vikki Fitchett, Travis Graham, Julie Jermeland,
Eddie Llaneras, Andrew Marinik, David Mellichamp, Matthew Moeller,
Lucas Neurauter, Matt Perez, Kelly Stanley, Jeff Taylor, and Jean Paul
Talledo Vilela. This research was conducted under FMCSA contract
DTMC75-07-D-00006, Task Order No. 2. The opinions expressed in this
document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the
official position of FMCSA, or any other organization. Similarly, the
opinions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the opinions
of others who are not authors of this document.
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DOT HS 809 864. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation,
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
Winer, B.J., Brown, D.R., Michels, K.M., (1991). Statistical principles in experimental
design (3'^'^ ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc.
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Washington Academy of Sciences
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Individual Differences in Resuming Interrupted Tasks^
Nicole E. Werner, David M. Cades, Deborah A. Boehm-Davis, Matthew
S. Peterson, Sahar J. Alothman, Xiaoxue Zhang
George Mason University
Abstract
Interruptions are a constant factor in our everyday lives. Each moment is
filled with text messages, phone calls, emails and instant messages (to name
a few). Every task we perform - from waking up in the morning and driving
to work until getting into bed at night - is at risk of being interrupted. This is
an issue because interruptions have been shown to have a detrimental effect
on the performance of a task. This has implications in our everyday lives as
well as in high risk environments such as driving. In fact, distracted driving
has been implicated in 20% of crashes resulting in 6,000 deaths and over half
a million injuries (www.distraction.gov, 2008). Because interruptions may
have such negative effects, it is important to understand the cognitive
mechanisms underlying the interruption process. Once the process is
understood, efforts can be made to try and mitigate the harmful effects. This
study was designed to tease apart the cognitive mechanisms used in
resuming tasks; namely, memory for the goal or memory for the spatial
location. In order to do this we manipulated the location and task type of the
original task following an interruption. Rather than showing one type of
performer, our results showed two groups. One group resumed fastest when
the task and location of the original task were the same when resuming from
an interruption and the other group performed fastest when the location of
the original task was changed upon resumptionr. In order to investigate why
people fell into one group or the other, we conducted a second study in
which we measured individual differences in working memory span and
spatial ability with the goal of predicting group membership. However, the
individual differences measured did not predict group membership. This led
us to believe that performance may result from a task specific response.
This article is based upon a talk given by Nicole E. Werner at the Potomac Chapter of
the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society’s mini-symposium on driver performance.
The symposium was held at the National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia in
conjunction with the Washington Academy of Sciences’ CapSci weekend event March
28‘'\ 2010.
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Introduction
Interruptions are a constant eactor in our everyday lives.
Eaeh moment is filled with text messages, phone calls, emails and instant
messages (to name a few). Every task we perform - from waking up in the
morning and driving to work until getting into bed at night - is at risk of
being interrupted.
Other than the obvious annoyance factor, this barrage of
interruptions is an issue because interruptions can have serious negative
consequences. Research has shown that when recovering from an
interruption, it takes longer to complete the overall task and an error is
likely to be made upon resumption (Gillie & Broadbent, 1989; Trafton,
Altmann, & Brock, 2005; Trafton, Altmann, Brock, & Mintz, 2003). That
is, many of the tasks we perform daily - driving down the street or
sending an email to your boss - are susceptible to the detrimental effects
of interruptions.
A startling figure suggests that workplace interruptions take 588
billion dollars per year from the national economy (Basex, 2005). This is
not surprising given that in 40% of interrupted situations in an office
environment, people failed to come back to their original tasks (O’Conaill
&Frohlich, 1995).
Interruptions are also prevalent in high-risk environments. In the
healthcare domain, interruptions and distractions were shown to be a
contributing risk factor for medical error in 126 incidents identified as
“wrong site, wrong person, or wrong procedure” events (Joint
Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations, 2001). In
addition, hospitals have attributed 43% of medication errors to distraction
(Santell, 2005), and that number is sure to grow as new technologies
continue to be introduced.
Driving - a task that most of us perform daily - is especially
susceptible to the damaging effects of interruptions. A study conducted at
the University of Utah found that driving while using a phone affects a
driver’s reaction time as much as being at the legal limit of alcohol
consumption - a .08% blood alcohol level (www.distraction.gov). Further,
distracted driving is implicated in 20% of crashes with a result of 6,000
deaths and over half a million injuries (www.distraction.gov, 2008).
Interruptions become even more pertinent when one considers the
number of daily interruptions that reach the highest office in the country.
According to a recent Newsweek article, Barack Obama is the first
Washington Academy of Sciences
37
president of the United States to earry his personal BlackBerry^'^ Smart
Phone device, and even he is not immune to everyday interruptions
(Begley, 2009).
Although it is not likely that the BlackBerry^”^ will be the cause of
a national crisis, it is clear that interruptions are an inescapable part of our
lives. This is why it is important that research on interruptions explore
how to better handle interruptions and mitigate the unfavorable
consequences they create. To do this, we must first develop an
understanding of the processes underlying interruptions and recovery. In
other words, we must study the cognitive underpinnings of the interruption
and recovery process.
The process of recovering from an interruption has not yet been
fully explored. The interruptions research to date suggests that
interruptions lead to a longer time spent overall to complete tasks as well
as a higher likelihood of an error occurring upon resumption from the
interruption (Bailey & Konston, 2006; Cellier & Eyrolle, 1992; Zijlstra et
al., 1999).
But what exactly is being remembered when you resume a task
after an interruption? From existing research on interruptions, we know
that people use memory for the goal (task) in conjunction with memory for
the spatial location of the primary task in order to resume from an
interruption (Altmann & Trafton, 2002; Ratwani & Trafton, 2008).
The Memory for Goals model is based on the ACT-R model
(Anderson & Lebiere, 1998). ACT-R is a computational cognitive model
that represents tasks as a series of nested goals in memory, all of which
must be executed in order to complete a task. Each goal has a certain level
of activation associated with it and at any given point in time; ACT-R
selects the goal with the highest level of activation to perform next. Thus,
goals with higher activation levels are selected and performed more
quickly and accurately. According to ACT-R, the activation of these goals
decays as a function of time. Therefore, the longer you are away from the
task, the lower the activation will be, and the more difficult it will be to
retrieve that goal and resume the task. The Memory for Goals model
(Altmann & Trafton, 2002) applies the ACT-R framework to
understanding interrupted task performance. It suggests that in order to
more efficiently resume an interrupted task, you can use context, cues,
and/or rehearsal of the goal or task in question to raise the activation level
(Altmann & Trafton, 2002).
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This model speaks directly to how people use memory for the goal
or task to resume, but does not take into account the role of the memory
for spatial location in the resumption process. The use of memory for the
spatial location in resumption is supported by recent work that shows that
in the absence of goal memory, or after a goal has decayed, memory for
the spatial location can be used to facilitate resumption (Ratwani &
Trafton, 2008).
We now know that people use both the memory for the goal and
for the spatial location to aid in resumption following an interruption, but
these methods of resumption have previously been studied as separate
factors. What is not completely clear is how the two may work in
conjunction with each other. Does one dominate? Is it one or the other, or
do they both contribute? If they both contribute, in what order? We
designed an experiment to explore these mechanisms more closely in
order to develop a better understanding of the resumption process in terms
of both goal and spatial location memory. Experiment 1 examines the
roles of goal memory and spatial memory in resuming an interrupted task.
Experiment 2 examines whether individual difference measures such as
working memory span and spatial ability can be used to predict the
different types of performance that were found in Experiment 1 .
Experiment 1 : Exploring the Role of Spatial and Goal Memory in
Interrupted Task Performance
To examine these questions, we created an experimental paradigm
that taps either goal or spatial location mechanisms. In the typical
interruption paradigm used in laboratory research, a person works on a
primary task, is interrupted, and then returns to the primary task once they
have completed the interrupting task. Typically, during the interruption,
nothing about the primary task changes. This type of scenario does not
allow for memory for the goal and memory for the spatial location to be
teased apart. In this study, we developed a new paradigm to try and tease
apart these two mechanisms. We created a task in which the person works
on a task, receives an interruption task, and is then returned to either the
same or a different task, appearing in either the same or a different
location, thus permitting us to directly address both mechanisms.
Based on the Memory for Goals model (Altmann & Trafton, 2002)
and Ratwani and Trafton’ s (2008) work on spatial location memory, we
expected that when participants resumed the same task in the same spatial
location, they would resume fastest; when resuming a different task in a
Washington Academy of Sciences
39
different spatial loeation, performance would be slower. Moreover, if the
spatial location is more critical to the resumption process, participants
would resume faster when resuming to the same location, even if the task
type changed. However, if memory for the goal is more critical to the
process of resumption, we expected to see faster resumption when the task
remained the same, even if the location changed.
Method
Participants
Fifty-four undergraduates from a large mid- Atlantic university
participated in this experiment. They were recruited through the
university’s online research recruitment site in which students sign up for
posted experiments, and received course credit for participation. All tests
were administered on the same day and the experiment lasted
approximately 1 hour.
Apparatus
A 17” display monitor and a Windows-based personal computer
were used to display the tasks. The computer was placed roughly 12
inches in front of the participant. The primary task display was divided
into four equal parts - quadrants - by a vertical and horizontal line and the
task appeared in one of those four quadrants - the quadrant paradigm
(Figure 1). The interruption tasks were displayed in the center of an
otherwise blank screen (Figure 2). All tasks were programmed in C++.
Fall 2010
40
is the letter herea VOWELor a CONSONAtrr?
.. fressVfor VOWaor'in^ for CONSONANT
r * ^
G 5
Figure 2 The interruption task
Measures
Response time and accuracy were computed from a log recording
of time-stamped keystrokes for the tasks. Resumption lag - the time
between the end of the interruption and the participant’s first action back
on the primary task - was the response time measure.
Design and Procedure
The experimental design was a 2x2 repeated measures design with
resumption location (same/different) and task type upon resumption
(same/different) as the repeated measures. Each participant completed 1 12
trials and each trial was made up of four problems - either four math or
four verbal. After one trial (four problems), the quadrant in which the
primary task was displayed, and the type of task (math or lexical decision)
may have changed {i.e., either math or lexical decision). All tasks were
randomized and counterbalanced; half of the trials began with math
problems; half began with lexical decision problems.
Thirty-two of the 112 trials were interrupted (approximately 30%).
When an interruption occurred, it took place following the completion of
the second task within a trial of four problems. Interruptions were either
10 Vowel/Consonant or 10 Even/Odd judgments. Of the 32 interruptions,
half were Vowel/Consonant judgments and half were Even/Odd
judgments for a total of 160 Even/Odd interruption problems and 160
Vowel/Consonant interruption problems. All interruption tasks were
counterbalanced and randomized.
Washington Academy of Sciences
41
Interruption trials ended when the participants had responded to
the set of ten problems; the interruptions lasted for approximately seven to
ten seconds. Upon completion of an interruption task, there were four
possible resumption types - the same problem in the same quadrant, the
same problem in a different quadrant, a different problem in the same
quadrant, or a different problem in a different quadrant. There were 8 each
of the four resumption conditions - Same Task-Same Tocation, Same
Task-Different Tocation, Different Task-Same Location, Different Task-
Different Location (counterbalanced and randomized).
Tasks
A mathematical and a verbal task were presented to test
participants on a computer screen. The mathematical task consisted of the
presentation of a simple addition problem with one digit addends and their
summation. The instructions were to determine whether the summation
was correct; if it was correct, participants were to press the ‘Z’ key; if not,
they were to press the ‘M’ key. For the lexical decision task, participants
indicated whether a string of letters presented on the computer screen
constituted a word or a non-word (Balota, Cortese, & Pilotti, 1999). They
did this by pressing the ‘Z’ key if the letters presented were a word, and
pressing the ‘M’ key if they were a non- word. Task saliency was increased
by using different colors for the lexical decision and the mathematical
tasks.
Two interruption tasks were used. When an interruption occurred,
the interrupting task occluded the primary task and a number-digit pair
{e.g., 5G) was displayed. Participants were asked to attend either to the
letter or the number. For the letter task, participants had to determine
whether the letter presented was a vowel or a consonant
(Vowel/Consonant Task); for the number task, participants had to
determine whether the number presented was even or odd (Even/Odd
Task). Responses were indicated by pressing the ‘Z’ or the ‘M’ key,
respectively.
Results
Outliers (in terms of reaction time) greater than two standard
deviations from the mean were removed from the data. A 2x2 repeated
measures ANOVA {n = 54) revealed only a main effect of task, F ( 1, 53) =
6.66, MSB = 1 1 3 1 33, /? < .05, F “ • 1 1 ^ but not a main effect of location, F
< 1. Additionally, no interaction was found between the two, F (1, 53) =
1.51, = .22). On average, people performed better when they resumed
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42
the same task than when they resumed a different task. A change in
location of the primary task upon resumption did not affect performance.
Upon a closer look at the data, however, there was a clear
distinction between two patterns of performance. Following our initial
predictions, approximately half of the participants {n = 29) were fastest at
resuming to the same location with the same task. This group was dubbed
the “expected group.” Surprisingly, the remaining participants {n = 25)
showed an opposite pattern. These participants were fastest when
resuming to a different location with a different task. We labeled them our
“opposite group.”
This prompted us to conduct additional exploratory analyses.
Analysis of the data from the first group of participants (expected group)
supported our original hypothesis that people would be fastest at resuming
when they were returned to the same task in the same location (main effect
of task, F (1, 28) = 14.18, MSE = 1 17878, /? < .001, = .57, and location,
F {\, 28) = 36.57, MSE = 52987, /7 < .001, = .34, with no interaction, F
(1,28) = 2.89,/? = .10).
Analysis of the second (opposite) group confirmed that these
participants were fastest when the primary task was displayed in a
different location (main effect of location, F (1, 24) = 26.50, MSE =
98564, p < .001, r] = .52). These participants appeared to respond most
quickly when they were returned to a new task (Mean response time =
1907.34 for the same task and 2236.29 for a different task); however, this
finding was not reliable, (1, 24) < 1, . 05. Table 1 displays the
means and standard deviations for all of the groups.
Table 1 Means (Msec) and Standard Errors (in parentheses) for all groups
Washington Academy of Sciences
43
Discussion
Based on these findings, we cannot draw definitive conclusions
regarding whether goal or spatial memory mechanisms are used in
resuming the primary task. These data lend support for the roles ol goal
memory and spatial location in resumption after an interruption, but they
do not reveal the interaction of these concepts. Changes of any kind
(environment or task) decrease performance for the Expected group while
the Opposite group is only affected by a change in location, and this effect
is positive (performance improves).
It is not clear from our data why these two different groups of
performers exist. Individual differences may be one way to explain these
disparate groups. Individual differences have been shown to account for
variance in performance (Cades, 2007; Cades, Kidd, & McKnight, 2008;
Kidd, 2007; Kidd, Cades, & McKnight, 2008). A previous study on
individual differences in interrupted task performance suggests that
participants with a higher IQ perform more quickly and accurately when
resuming a task after an interruption (Cades et al., 2010). Another possible
reason for these individual differences is differences in working memory
abilities. Kane and Engle (2002) showed that individuals with larger
working memory spans are better at inhibiting irrelevant information, and
may have an easier time resuming from an interruption when the task
content and location change. These people may not perceive the task
switch as an interruption and might be inhibiting the old interrupted task
and therefore show more interference when resuming the same task.
Experiment 2: Exploring the role of Individual Differences in
Interrupted Task Performance
The findings from Experiment 1 led us to develop a second study
in which we explored why these two groups of performers (Expected and
Opposite) exist. For this second study, we wanted to investigate the
potential influence of individual differences on the performance of these
two groups. Experiment 1 was designed to explore the role of changes in
task and changes in location in resuming from an interruption. It is
possible that differences in spatial ability and working memory span may
have contributed to differential performance results in our first study.
Experiment 2 explores this possibility by including measures of these
abilities and examining their impact on performance.
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Participants
One hundred and twenty students from a large Mid-Atlantic
University participated in this experiment for course credit. The same
recruitment method from Experiment 1 was used except that students who
had participated in Experiment 1 were excluded from participation.
Design and Procedure
The procedure followed was the same as in Experiment 1 except
that in addition to completing the quadrant task, participants completed
one measure of working memory span and two measures of spatial ability
prior to completing the quadrant task. The OSpan task lasted
approximately 15 minutes and the spatial tasks lasted five minutes per
task.
Tasks
The tasks for Experiment 2 were the same for the quadrant
paradigm. In addition, we had participants complete tests designed to
measure working memory span and spatial ability. The measure of
working memory span, the “OSpan” task (Bunting, Cowan, and Saults,
2006), was computer-based; the two spatial tasks (mental rotation and
paper folding) were paper-based. The OSpan task couples retention and
recall of letters with complex division problems, while the spatial tasks
require the evaluation and comparison of objects.
Results
As in Experiment 1, outliers greater than two standard deviations
from the mean were removed from the data. A 2x2 repeated measures
ANOVA (n = 106) of the resumption lags revealed main effects of both
task, F (1, 105) = 5.89, MSE = 215446.70, p < .05, = .05, and location,
F (1, 105) = 14.42, MSE = 296795.59, p < .001, = .12, with faster
Resumption Lags associated with same task and same content resumptions
respectively. There was no significant interaction between task and
location, F < 1. Similar to Experiment 1, two different patterns of results
emerged. The 45 participants in the expected group showed only a main
effect of task, with shorter resumption lags associated with same task
resumption F (1, 44) = 7.86, MSE = 212479.41, p < .01, = .15. There
was no significant interaction between task and location for this group, F <
1 . I he remaining 61 participants (the opposite group) showed only a main
effect of location, F (1, 60) = 19.98, MSE = 308864.13, p < .001, q^ = .25,
Washington Academy of Sciences
45
with shorter resumption lags assoeiated with resuming in a different
location. There was no significant interaction between task and location
for this group, F < 1. These results replicate the findings in Experiment 1
and provide further evidence for the existence of two groups of
performers.
The puipose of Experiment 2 was to explore two possible traits
that might help to predict group membership for any given individual. To
answer this question, a series of regressions were performed using spatial
ability and working memory capacity to predict resumption lag in general
and then resumption lag of each group of performers separately (Note:
only 76 of the 106 participants completed all of these measures; therefore
the following analyses reflect only these 76 participants). Taken together,
Mental Rotation, Paper Folding, and OSpan scores did not explain a
significant proportion of variance in Resumption Tag, R2 = .04, F (3, 72)
= 1.09, p = .36. Further, none of the measures individually predicted
Resumption Lags (see Table 2 for regression statistics).
Table 2 Regression Statistics for Resumption Lags for all Participants in Experiment 2
Note: Values represent standardized coefficients.
RE
A final analysis was performed to determine if the three additional
participant ability measures (Mental Rotation, Paper Folding, and OSpan)
could be used to predict categorization of group membership (expected or
opposite). These three predictors were entered into a logistic regression
using group membership as the binary outcome variable. Neither the
overall logistic regression equation, (3) = 2.94, p = .40, or any of the
predictors individually were able to significantly predict in which group
(expected or opposite) a person would fall (see Table 3 for logistic
regression statistics).
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Table 3 Logistic Regression Analyses Summaries
General Discussion
These experiments were designed to investigate the mechanisms
by which people resume after being interrupted. We hypothesized that
both spatial location and the specific task being resumed should affect
performance, which they did. However, they had differential effects for
different groups of participants. Although roughly half of our participants
had the best performance (in terms of response time and accuracy) when
they resumed the same primary task in the same location, the other half of
the participants had the worst performance under these conditions. This
second group performed better when they resumed a new task in a new
location.
The second experiment explored whether individual difference
measures of working memory span and spatial ability could help predict in
which group individuals would fall. However, these measures were not
useful in this regard. This could be due to the nature of the specific tasks
used in our experiments; that is, these tasks may not have tapped the
specific working memory or spatial skills that we measured. For example,
the simple one-answer questions used in the current paradigm may not
have been complex enough to tax working memory, particularly since the
task was restarted each time the person was interrupted.
Further, because the interruptions occurred only after an individual
problem was completed, participants - especially the opposite performers
- may not have perceived the interruption task as an interruption but rather
as a completely new task following the completion of another task. The
opposite performers might have found this an easier resumption due to the
perception that they were starting a new task each time, with no
expectation of resuming a certain task or in a particular location.
The findings for the expected performers suggest that they did
indeed expect to return to the interrupted task. Because of this expectation
Washington Academy of Sciences
47
to return, the task may be held in memory, increasing its activation level.
This would mean that tasks which are more similar to the original primary
task would be easier to resume than completely different tasks.
The surprising findings from these two experiments point to
several areas for future research. First, we still believe that individual
differences do matter and that it is important to gain an understanding of
their role in resumption. Flowever, it may be more important to ensure that
all participants expect to return to the original primary task, as this feature
may also be contributing to the observed performance differences. To do
this, we will create a multistep primary task which can be interrupted prior
to completion. The hope is that further investigation into this issue will
help increase our understanding of the resumption process and specifically
of the relationship between memory for the goal and the memory for the
spatial location in resuming after an interruption.
Once there is a deeper understanding of the cognitive mechanisms
underlying how people recover from an interruption, efforts can be made
to try and ameliorate the negative consequences. For many practical tasks,
such as automobile driving or providing health care, it is almost
impossible to completely avoid being interrupted. Therefore, if the process
of recovering from interruptions is better understood, researchers can
develop training methods or other aids to try and aid the recovery process.
References
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48
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Washington Academy of Sciences
Psychoactive Medications, Stimulants, Hypnotics, and
Nutritional Aids:
Effects on Driving Alertness and Performance
51
Gerald P. Krueger'
Krueger Ergonomics Consultants
Alexandria, VA
Abstract
This article reviews the effects various psychoactive chemical substances
have on roadway driving alertness and performance. Of concern are
prescribed and self-administered medications, other drugs, stimulants,
hypnotics, and nutritional supplements, including energy drinks that drivers
sometimes ingest. This article discusses possible application of such
compounds to maintain attentive driving, with special focus on how
chemical substances affect the safe driving performance of commercial
long-haul truck drivers and bus/motorcoach drivers. Cautions and
recommendations are offered for highway safety advocates, employers,
commercial drivers, and for the driving public.
Introduction
A RECENT Transportation Research Board (TRB) truck and bus
safety project looked at the literature pertaining to medications, drugs, and
nutritional supplements that commercial drivers might use for inducing
needed sleep or to sustain alertness during on-the-job driving (Krueger,
Leaman and Bergoffen, 2011). The project addressed psychoactive effeets
of chemical substances on operator performanee to understand the effects
on performances involved in driving: e.g. vigilance, monitoring,
manipulating vehiele controls, psychomotor tracking, route-planning,
following direetions, navigating on eountry roads, through traffic, and so
on.
Initially, the purpose was to determine if the newest generation of
sleeping pills (hypnotics), the new classes of stimulants, and easily
available nutritional supplements could add to a collection of suitable
This article is based upon a talk by the same title given by Gerald P. Krueger at the
Potomac Chapter of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society’s mini-symposium on
driver performance. The symposium was held at the National Science Foundation,
Arlington, Virginia in conjunction with the Washington Academy of Sciences’ CapSci
weekend event March 28'*’, 20 1 0.
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countermeasures to commercial driver fatigue. Ultimately, the project
identified performance effects of several drugs, medications, and other
psychoactive chemical substances that may have significance not only for
commercial drivers and public transportation operators, but for other high
safety risk occupations as well. This paper discusses some of that
literature.
Effects of Chemicals on Performance
In describing the effects of a variety of chemical substances on
driving performance four important issues arise.
1 . Drug Definitions and Categorization
2. Chemical Substance Effects and Driving Performance
3. Drug and Alcohol Influences in Crash Statistics
4. Drug Influences on Performance Compared to Alcohol Effects
The first issue categorizes numerous classes of psychoactive
chemical substances. As the aphorism goes, “one cannot paint them all
with the same paint brush.” For example, many vehicle drivers,
commercial drivers or not, take legitimate medications prescribed by
medical providers to treat illnesses or diseases. Many medications carry
caution warnings regarding potential adverse effects on driving behavior.
The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and the U.S. Food and
Drug Administration (FDA) provide an extensive list of “controlled
drugs,” Schedules I through V, (CFR Title 21 Chapter II) classified by
their potential for abuse and physical and psychological dependence.
Examples of Schedule II controlled substances include opioids often
prescribed to treat pain; and stimulants sometimes prescribed for
narcolepsy or Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD).
Depressants may be prescribed to alleviate anxiety or to treat certain sleep
disorders such as insomnia. Classification is based upon numerous factors.
While there are concerns about how such drugs may affect driving
performance, in some instances people afflicted by certain medical
conditions may actually drive better when using some prescribed drugs,
presumably because the drug treatment works to assist patients with their
particular maladies. There are special applications of both hypnotics and
stimulants used operationally under safety-controlled conditions for
arduous military missions.
Drivers also self-administer over-the-counter (PTC) drugs, such as
antihistamines for seasonal allergies; or they take meds to relieve muscle
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aches, pains and other ailments. Some drivers take vitamins, nutritional
supplements, and diet pills.
Of course, there also are the illicit drug^s {e.g. cocaine,
amphetamines, marijuana) - that, like alcohol, adversely affect driving,
and which public laws prohibit because of their abuse potential, and their
frequent involvement in crimes. The U.S. National Institute of Drug
Abuse (NIDA) classifies illicit drugs into seven major drug categories on
the basis of their psychoactive effects on the central nervous system
(CNS). Examples of drugs in each class are listed in Table 1. Most of
these drugs ean dramatically and adversely affect driving, but they are not
the focus of the search for fatigue countermeasures and so diseussion here
is limited.
Table 1; NIDA’s drug classification (NIDA 2006)
A lot of the information about licit and illicit drugs focuses on the
presence of such drugs in drivers involved in roadway crashes. The
Ameriean Medical Association (AMA) published extensive information
on the driving-related-effects of legally prescribed drugs (2003); as did the
U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA, 2005);
and the International Council on Alcohol, Drugs and Traffic Safety
(ICADTS, 2006). In reviewing such lists, NHTSA’s David Shinar stated
that: “short of saying that all drugs are bad (and even that statement is not
true) it is difficult to have a general discussion about drug effects on
performance because different drugs have different pharmaeological
properties that cause different physiological and physical signs and
symptoms, and consequently have different effects on attitudes and
behavior in general, and on driving-related attitudes and behaviors in
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particular” (Shinar, 2007). Shinar says it is nearly impossible and
(fortunately) unnecessary to discuss separately each of the drugs in the
categories identified in the governmental sanctioned lists mentioned above
(Shinar, 2005; 2007).
This discussion is limited to roadway safety, so I look at chemical
substances “most likely to be ingested by drivers, especially commercial
drivers” and then addresses how these chemicals are likely to impact
vehicle driver performance, safety, and health. Accordingly, this paper
looks at: (a) hypnotics and sleep promoting compounds; (b) stimulants and
alertness producing compounds; and (c) hormonal, herbal, dietary, and
energy boosting supplements.
The second issue presents research findings that relate to driver
performance. Relating laboratory studies to the performance of drivers in
on-the-road scenarios can be tenuous. Drug results which affect cognitive
performance on generic psychological tasks in a laboratory experiment
cannot always readily transfer to real roadway experiences. For example,
low doses of a drug given to a lab test participant may produce slight
performance effects; these effects can become more pronounced when the
nature of the task is intensified, e.g., when cognitive workload is
increased, when subjects multi-task (Pickworth, Rohi'er and Fant, 1997;
Shinar, 2007).
Driving involves many task elements, including physically
handling the vehicle by steering, shifting gears, braking, staying within the
lanes on the road, manipulating through physical obstacles and traffic, and
so on. Driving also involves psychological and cognitive aspects of
reasoning, judgment, decision-making, reaction time, attention to details,
keen visual perception during vigilance (visual, auditory, and kinesthetic
vigilance), monitoring of information, navigating between locations, and
responding to road hazards. Stating that a drug affects performance begs
the question “what is implied by performance,” and how much of a drug
effect is unacceptable for accomplishing individual tasks, completing a
job, or violating safety principles and risking driving incidents.
In June 2005 the FRB’s Committee on Alcohol, Other Drugs and
Transportation held a symposium to discuss the role of Drugs in Traffic.
Experts addressed involvement of drugs (licit and illicit) in traffic injuries
and deaths. In his presentation on Drug Effects and their Significance for
Traffic Safety, Shinar (2005) suggested implicit assumptions that are made
in the study of drugs and their effects on performance:
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a. Psychoactive drugs should have an etfect not only on mood but
also on cognitive and psychomotor functioning. Furthermore, these
effects should be reflected in performance on measures related to
these functions (such as stability, reaction time, speech) and should
reflect some significant deviation from the norm.
b. These cognitive changes are expected to be of such magnitude that
they are both observable to a trained person, and quantifiable with
some standardized tests.
c. Since driving is a fairly complex psychomotor and cognitive task,
drug impairments should affect driving performance, and usually
in a negative manner.
d. People who take drugs often drive while under their influence,
either because they do not appreciate their impairments or because
their judgment is impaired.
e. The resulting Driving Under the Influence of Drugs (DUI) problem
can be dealt with in much the same way as DWI (Driving While
Intoxicated - with ethanol).
Source: D. Shinar in TRB Symposium proceedings, 2005, page 68.
This paper focuses not on the role of drugs in crashes, but rather on
the effects of chemicals on driving performance, thus making “measures
of performance” important to driver performance on the roadway. Stating
a particular drug “alters a person’s critical flicker fusion: CFF,” or that it
“adversely affects psychomotor tracking, or reaction time, or judgment, or
decision-making,” without offering practical examples of how to apply the
finding to actual driving necessitates a “stretch of inference” for
understanding the implications.
Babkoff and Krueger (1992) identified eight research criteria
(mostly measures of reaction time and performance accuracy) to examine
in experiments that decide whether to use a stimulant to ameliorate
degradation attributable to excessive sleep loss. But even reaction time
measures are not always straight-forward indications of equipment
operator performance. In roadway crash investigations, specialists point to
four identifiable stages associated with drivers’ perception-response time
(detection, identification, decision, and response) immediately prior to a
crash sequence demonstrating that in-depth assessments of driver reaction
time are not a trivial matter in accident reconstruction (Olson, 2007).
Driving, which is a fairly complex psychomotor and cognitive
task, is also a planned behavior. Different people employ different
strategies to drive from one point to another, e.g. trip planning, navigation,
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reacting to specific situations. Involving chemical substances makes
cause-and-effect analyses more difficult and can obfuscate even the
simplest explanations of drug-induced response times. For example,
people under the effects of alcohol often feel over-confident in their
driving, and they speed. In contrast, people under the effects of marijuana
often feel impaired, and they tend to drive slower. Both drugs, however,
impair judgment and the ability to respond correctly to emergency
situations (Shinar, 2005; 2007).
There also are individual differences in metabolism. Behavioral
responses vary in their reactions to medications, drugs, and other
chemicals. This can be quite significant. Some people manage okay with
chemical substances or medications that would severely impair another
person’s behavioral responses (McBay, 1997; Shinar, 2007).
The question becomes how to relate laboratory-based
psychological and physiological performance measures to driver behavior
in “real world” performance on the highway. The “application leap” from
lab-based findings to the “real world” often is not easy to make.
Researchers usually agree however, that if a drug adversely affects a fine-
tuned measure of human performance {e.g., reaction time, signal detection,
precision tracking) in a laboratory study, such drug-affected performance
is not likely to improve while the individual is driving on the roadway;
performance on the road might even be worse.
The third issue assesses whether drug-involved crash statistics can
show if drugs or alcohol actually were factors in causing the crashes; or if
drugs were just present at the time of the crashes. Numerous reports and
statistical treatises of highway accidents document large numbers of
drivers, injured or dead in crashes, who had evidence of drugs or alcohol
in their bodies. These determinations are often made using blood or tissue
samples taken soon after the crashes {e.g. NTSB, 1990; DeGier, 2005). In
citing studies reporting traffic and drug statistics for 13 European
countries DeGier (2005) indicated the quest for insights on the prevalence
of drugs other than alcohol in road traffic is hampered by methodological
problems encountered with epidemiological studies of drugs and driving.
DeGier estimated the presence of illicit drug use in the general driver
population, at least in Europe, is in the range of 1-5%, whereas the
prevalence of medicinal drugs affecting driving performance is higher (5-
10%). In an overview of studies on drug impaired driving in the United
States, Jones, Shinar and Walsh (2003) reported benzodiazepines were
found in 4% of non-crash-involved drivers. It was estimated that in 2005,
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about 1.7% of drivers with commercial driver’s licenses (CDL) used
controlled substances, and 0.2% used alcohol (>0.04 BAC) while
performing their duties (U.S. DOT, Gruberg, 2007).
In 1994, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) issued
regulations for safety-sensitive employees in transportation industries
requiring testing “for use, in violation of law or Federal Regulation, of
alcohol and drugs listed in the Controlled Substances Act.” The DOT said
drivers shall not use controlled substances, except when the use is
pursuant to the instructions of a “physician who is familiar with the
driver’s medical history and assigned duties, and has advised the driver
that the prescribed substance or drug will not adversely affect a driver’s
ability to safely operate a commercial motor vehicle” (CFR 391.41-b-12).
Some controlled substances (“legal drugs”) obtained only by
medical prescription are known to have adverse effects on driving. These
include hypnotic sleep aids such as diazepam, flurazepam, and
loprazolam, and various antidepressants and antihistamines. Some
medications influence vision, vigilance, and even impulsiveness. Problems
such as driver fatigue, lack of attention, vigilance deficits, suicidal, and
aggressive tendencies can contribute to crashes. Over-the-counter
medications which are known to be psychoactive include drugs such as the
antihistamines containing diphenhydramine (e.g. Benadryl®). Tests for
these drugs, and many others, are rarely performed on impaired vehicle
drivers (commercial drivers or not). If two or more drugs are found in a
vehicle driver, the combined effect on performance must be considered
and evaluated (McBay, 1997).
In investigations of aviation and ground vehicle crashes, drug-
crash causal conclusions are drawn by inference; and this is done with
some uncertainty about the veracity of those conclusions. McBay (1997)
addressed whether enough is known about the effects of drugs on driving
performance to permit expert witnesses to testify in court cases about the
likely impairment effects of drugs on a driver. Adequate methods are
available for the identification and determination of the amount of dmgs
through examination of blood, urine, hair, sweat, saliva, and other
specimens taken from drivers shortly after crashes. The major problem is
relating the drug concentrations to actual driving impairment. Specimens
other than blood may be useful in determining drug use, but not in
determining whether an active drug in the body affected driving
performance at the time of a crash. While concentrations of drugs and
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metabolites in body fluids can be determined, correlating them with
driving impairment or improvement is more difficult (McBay, 1997).
In 1983, a panel of medical experts reached a consensus
concerning drug concentrations and driving impairment. The panel
reported: “In order to establish that use of a drug results in impairment of
driving skills and to justify a testing program to respond to this hazard,
certain facts must be available:
(1) The drug can be demonstrated in laboratory studies to produce a
dose-related impairment of skills associated either with driving or
with related psychomotor functions.
(2) Concentrations of the drug and/or its metabolites in body fluids can
be accurately and quantitatively measured and related to the degree
of impairment produced.
(3) Such impairment is confirmed by actual highway experience.
(4) Simple behavioral tests can be done at the roadside by police
officers with modest training, to indicate the presence of such
impairment to the satisfaction of the courts.
(5) A range of concentrations of the drug can be incorporated in laws
relating to impaired driving as ipso facto evidence. [Blanke et al.,
1985; McBay, 1989; 1997]
McBay, Shinar, and others agree the above criteria have been met
for just one drug: ethanol (alcohol). The adverse effects of alcohol on
driving performance are well-established. Experts can testify to its effects
based upon blood and breath alcohol concentrations (BAG). However,
much of what is known about alcohol and driving performance is not
available for other drugs. It is not certain the above listed criteria can be
met for most other drugs of concern to highway safety (McBay, 1997;
Shinar, 2007).
The fourth issue is that researchers often report lab study drug
effects by comparing them to the better-identified effects of ethanol
(alcohol) on performance. Research on alcohol effects on performance
provides a “baseline” for understanding how much impact other chemical
substances have on driver performance. This is because:
• predictable processing of alcohol (ethanol) in the body is well-
understood,
• the effects of alcohol on so many forms of performance have been
thoroughly studied and described, and
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• many people have experienced alcohol-impaired performance
(even while driving), thus they can readily relate to comparisons
that explain the effects of other chemical substances researched in
experiments. (Shinar, 2007)
Alcohol effects are so consistent that the World Health
Organization recommended that alcohol-related impairment serve as a
benchmark for other impairments (Willette and Walsh, 1983). Compared
to other chemical substances, alcohol is a very simple drug. It spreads
quickly and evenly throughout different body tissues so that blood alcohol
levels correspond to concentrations of alcohol in the brain. The amount of
impairment is directly related to the amount of alcohol that enters the
blood, and consequently the relationship between alcohol intake, blood
concentration and impairment is quite reliable and straightforward
(Moskowitz, 2007; Shinar, 2007). Alcohol affects just about every
capacity we have, including perceptual, attentional, cognitive, decision,
memory and motor functions - all critical for safe driving (Ogden and
Moskowitz, 2004). The impairing effects are witnessed at very low
alcohol levels, and as the amount of alcohol in the blood rises, the number
of functions impaired and the degree of impairment increases (Moskowitz
and Robinson, 1998; Ogden and Moskowitz, 2004).
The literature contains many alcohol and psychomotor
performance studies - a number of which were done in driving simulators.
Moskowitz and Robinson (1988) examined the effects of low levels of
alcohol (BAC<0.10% or less). They summarized results for nine different
driving-related functions and behavior categories: reaction time, tracking,
vigilance, divided attention, information processing, visual function,
perception, psychomotor skills, and driving skill. They reported alcohol in
almost any amount impairs driving or driving-related skills, for all
functions studied; and as the BAC level increases, impainnent increases.
All aspects of driving behaviors studied are impaired at BAC = 0.10% or
higher. There are differences among cognitive functions in their sensitivity
to alcohol. The most sensitive function - producing impainnent at the
lowest levels of BAC - is divided attention. Approximately 50% of the
studies demonstrate impairment in divided attention at BAC<0.05%. The
next most sensitive function is tracking, with similar percentages showing
impairment at BAC = 0.05% - significant because tracking and divided
attention are inherent in almost all driving tasks. The least sensitive
function is vigilance, with very few studies showing impairment below
BAC = 0.08%. Moskowitz and Robinson concluded that although some
people may be more affected by small concentrations than others, “there is
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no lower threshold level below which impairment does not exist for
alcohol.”
A driving simulator study by Roehers et al. (1994) demonstrated
that sleepiness and low-dose ethanol combine to impair simulated
automobile driving, an impairment that extends beyond the point at which
breath ethanol concentrations (EEC) reach zero. Holloway (1994)
concluded that since alcohol sensitivity can vary from time to time, person
to person, and situation to situation, the setting of a “safe” BAG will
always be arbitrary, being based on low, but non-zero incidence of effects
below that level.
In his book Traffic Safety and Human Behavior, Shinar wrote:
“Despite the numerous studies on the effects of drugs on driving related
skills, on driving, and on crashes; and in contrast to the role of alcohol in
driving and highway safety, we are amazingly ignorant of the role of drugs
other than alcohol in driving and safety” (Shinar, 2007, pg. 434). Alcohol
is a singular drug with specific demonstrated effects, while other “drugs”
have different effects. These drugs are not evenly absorbed in all body
tissues, or even in the same brain centers; they do not necessarily have the
same or similar physiological and behavioral effects; and they often do not
exhibit a direct dose-response relationship. Unlike the case for alcohol, the
case for similar links of other drugs to that of cognitive performance
(enhancements or decrements) is not straightforward. Different sampling
techniques and different residuals of the same drug have very different
implications for the presence of drug impairment. For example, marijuana
(with the active ingredient THC) is absorbed in fatty tissues and is then
released back into the blood and urine as a metabolite that has no
psychoactive effects. Thus, detection of THC in the blood indicates recent
ingestion; but detection of marijuana metabolites in the urine or the blood
only indicates that marijuana has been used - however the use could be
as long as a few weeks ago.
Additionally, drugs other than alcohol are often taken in
combination (also in combination with alcohol) and depending on the
specific drugs, the specific doses, and the user’s past experience with the
drugs, the joint effects may be additive, synergistic, or antagonistic, and
generally very difficult to predict (Shinar, 2007).
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Influence of Chemicals on Driver Performance
The next three sections describe many psychoactive chemical
substances which occasionally may be ingested by drivers. J he locus is on
commercial drivers. Further information can be located in the 1 RB
Synthesis report by Krueger, Teaman and Bergoffen (201 1).
Hypnotics And Sleep Inducing Compounds
Obtaining sufficient sleep — Maintaining alertness while operating a
vehicle is critical for commercial drivers, as well as operators of other
equipment that involve high risk safety concerns {e.g. trains, airplanes,
marine vessels, construction equipment). The best solution is to establish a
suitable work-rest schedule and to adopt a sleep management plan for use
during extended work hours — commonly encountered during over-the-
road operations. The U.S. DOT’s Flours of Service (HOS) rules for
commercial drivers permit a 14-hour work day (duty shift) of which 1 1
hours can be driving; but require that on-duty periods be followed by 10-
hours off-duty (the so-called 14-10 schedule). Under these HOS rules,
implemented in 2004, drivers are better able to match their working hours
with known periodicities in circadian rhythm physiology. Applying
principles of circadian physiology is central to driver alertness. These
HOS should make it easier for drivers to have time during their weekly
work schedules to obtain the body’s desired 7-8 or more hours of
restorative sleep per 24-hr day.
If commercial drivers cannot obtain 7-8 hours of sleep in one
contiguous bout, they should obtain at least 4-5 hours of uninterrupted
(core) sleep, and then augment that sleep with supplemental naps (O’Neill,
Krueger and Van Hemel, 1996). However, delivery schedules for
commercial drivers do not always permit time to take naps. Many drivers
are unable to obtain adequate sleep at the right physiological times on the
24-hour-clock {e.g., after driving through the night it is difficult to sleep
during daylight).
The details of work-rest scheduling are beyond the scope of this
paper. This article addresses whether commercial drivers might
judiciously employ short-acting hypnotic or sleep-promoting medications
to induce and maintain sleep as part of their sleep management plan; and
upon awakening, if there are no aftereffects, to resume and maintain safe
driving practices. Sleep promoting compounds include: (1) depressant
medications such as benzodiazepines and other closely-allied prescription
hypnotics, (2) prescription non-benzodiazepine medications, (3) the
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synthetic sleep- inducing hormone melatonin, (4) antihistamines containing
diphenhydramine, and (5) alcohol when used as a sleep promoter.
As expected immediately after ingesting a sleep aid, performance
is adversely affected. Decreased performance effects are reported for
benzodiazepines, alternative non-benzodiazepine drugs, antihistamines,
tricyclic antidepressants, narcotic analgesics and antipsychotics (O’Hanlon
and DeGier, 1986; Ramaekers, 2003; Vermeeren, 2004; DeGier, 2005).
Drivers are more concerned, however, with the performance effects that
might linger after one has awakened from a purposeful drug- induced sleep
period {e.g. a nap). The goal is to identify sleep-promoting compounds
that commercial drivers can use to assist them to fall asleep, to obtain
restful, restorative sleep; and then to ensure there are no after effects {e.g.
sleep inertia, drug hangover) or safety implications after awakening and
resuming driving.
Benzodiazepines — Benzodiazepines, a family of anxiolytic agents that
produce central nervous system (CNS) depression, are classified as
schedule IV depressants. They are commonly prescribed for treating
insomnia and anxiety. These drugs can help a person fall asleep quickly,
can reduce the number of awakenings, and increase the total sleep time
(Mendelson, 2005). Benzodiazepines are marketed as minor tranquilizers,
sedatives, hypnotics, or anticonvulsants. A drug’s ‘"half-life” is the time
required for the concentration of the drug in the body to reduce to exactly
one-half. The elimination half-lives of benzodiazepines vary widely, from
the relatively short-acting triazolam (2-4 hrs) to intermediate agents such
as temazepam (8-12 hrs); and some benzodiazepines have active
metabolites that prolong their effects, for example, the half-life of
diazepam is much longer - lasting up to 4 days. Torazepam (Ativan),
alprazolam (Xanax), and oxazepam, each have shorter half-lives ~ 10-20
hrs.
While many benzodiazepines are well-tolerated, at higher doses
they impair concentration and produce sedative effects even after their
drug effects might be expected to have worn off. The active effects of
benzodiazepines may include sedation, depression, disorientation, daytime
drowsiness, and impaired balance, and with increased dosage they produce
increased side-effects. While the margin of safety associated with these
drugs is considerable, overdose can occur and continuous use for several
months can result in psychological or physical dependence. The effects of
benzodiazepines are enhanced if accompanied by alcohol; and mixing
some benzodiazepines with alcohol can have toxic effects.
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The impairing effects of benzodiazepines on perlormancc vary
among the different types of benzodiazepines (Wittenborn, 1979).
Impairment is generally found with higher doses, and within 2-6 hours of
drug administration. While effects are drug specific, there are observable
impairments in the accomplishment of simple repetitive acts, as well as
impaired learning and immediate memory; but overall, relatively little
indication that well-established higher mental faculties are adversely
involved. Berghaus and Grass (1997) described performance impairment
on driving-related psychomotor and perceptual tasks as attributed to
benzodiazepines. For more detail see Krueger, Leaman and Bergoften
(2011).
Medical providers who prescribe hypnotic medication for drivers
must carefully weigh the potential risks of performance impairment post
awakening against the benefit of obtaining a good night sleep. Application
of low doses of the “shorter half-life” drugs may be useful as sleep aids for
those doing shift work or inducing sleep during overseas flights where the
body has to adjust to a different time zone in a relatively short time.
Non-benzodiazepine alternatives — Medications developed as
alternatives to benzodiazepines are now prescribed more often as sleep
promoting compounds. Some of the more common ones, often identified
as non-benzodiazepines, are zolpidem, zaleplon, eszopiclone, ramelteon,
and indiplon. With its relatively short half-life of 2.5 hours, zolpidem is
especially useful for promoting short- to moderate-length sleep durations
(of 4 to 7 hours) when shorter sleep opportunities occur at times not
normally conducive to sleep, such as for taking daytime naps. Daytime
naps are sometimes difficult to maintain, especially in non-sleep-deprived
individuals. The short half-life of zolpidem can provide short-sleeps while
minimizing the possibility of postnap sleep inertia hangovers. Thus
zolpidem can make it feasible to take advantage of a nap without
significantly lengthening the postnap time needed to ensure drug effects
have dissipated before resuming performance of one’s job.
James O’Hanlon and his colleagues in the Netherlands compared
effects of benzodiazepines and the newer non-benzodiazepines (O’Hanlon
and DeGier, 1986). In a meta-analysis of those studies, DeGier (2005)
pointed out (1) many prescribed hypnotics have a detrimental effect on
driving (sleep-inertia hangover effects) even in the afternoon of the day
following administration of the sleep promoting compound, and (2) most
newer non-benzodiazepines with shorter half-lives do not have sueh
detrimental effects, or at least they are substantially less. Military medical
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research verified such findings, and controlled use of the alternative non-
benzodiazepines is approved for some military operations (Caldwell et ah,
2009). Such findings assist health care providers to offer relatively safe
alternative sleep-inducers (short acting hypnotics) to drivers who need
hypnotic medications {e.g. for insomnia with commercial drivers). The
availability of non-benzodiazepines has led to a drop in the use of
benzodiazepines for induction of sleep, even for treatment of insomnia.
Melatonin - Melatonin, a hormone secreted into the bloodstream in
response to the onset of darkness, helps to make us sleepy (frequently
referred to as our body’s natural sleeping pill (Reiter and Robinson, 1995).
Melatonin is synthesized in the pineal gland (in the center of the brain)
during the dark phase of the daily light/dark cycle, and thus is intimately
tied into our circadian rhythm physiology. Melatonin’s effect on body
temperature is one of the keys to its ability to enhance sleep. Melatonin
offers good potential for helping people to feel drowsy, to fall asleep, to
deal with insomnia, to sleep better, and to assist in re-setting people’s
circadian clocks during work shift changes {i.e. coping with work shift-
lag). For over a decade synthetic melatonin has been used for that purpose
by some commercial drivers (Krueger, 1996-2010, personal
communication).
Hughes and Badia (1997) examined melatonin (in doses from 1 to
40 mg) for inducing naps, followed after awakening 4-hours post-dose by
tests of performance, memory, and fatigue. They found no carry-over
fatigue and no negative effects on memory or performance. Today,
researchers generally induce sleep with considerably lower doses of from
0.1 to 0.3 mg of melatonin. Most synthetic preparations of melatonin are
tablets ranging from 1-5 mg each without specifying the actual quantity or
the quality of melatonin that is actually in the tablets.
Unlike benzodiazepines which can become less effective alter only
two or three nights of use, melatonin does not lose its effectiveness over
time, and may even become a more effective sleep aid with chronic use. A
low dose of synthetic melatonin can be used to “trick” the body into
thinking that darkness has arrived earlier, especially if one enters a
darkened room to sleep (Santhi et al., 2008). This has obvious
implications for shift- workers and for commercial drivers whose work and
rest schedules are subject to frequent time-of-day changes. Climbing into a
darkened truck sleeper-berth after taking synthetic melatonin is a napping
strategy advocated and used by commercial drivers. It seems to work
better for some people than for others.
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Alcohol as a sleep inducing aid - Perhaps the most commonly used
technique for inducing sleep or to resolve insomnia is to drink modest
amounts of alcohol, perhaps a glass of wine, or one or two beers belore
bedtime to relax and prepare to fall asleep. Reiter and Robinson (1995)
estimated 20% of insomniacs rely on alcohol to relax their muscles, ease
their anxiety, and help them fall asleep. A “nightcap” drink may help a
person fall asleep more quickly, but several hours later, as the alcohol
oxidizes in the body, the sedative effect of the alcohol wears off, and a
rebound effect may occur, making the person restless and agitated. In the
second half of the night alcohol may disrupt dreaming (REM) sleep, thus
making the sleep less restful and unlikely to restore alertness. In that
sense, alcohol is not a very effective sleep aid. Drinking a larger amount
of alcohol before bedtime may also result in “hangover effects” upon
awakening, presenting symptoms of headache, grogginess, sleep inertia,
and decreased alertness.
Antihistamines as sleep promoters — For decades the most common
effective treatment for seasonal allergies has been to take antihistamines
of the diphenhydramine-hydrochloride-type that counter actions of
histamine, a naturally occurring chemical in the body (Kay, 2000).
Diphenhydramine often is used to treat the common cold, to suppress
coughs, and to treat motion sickness {e.g. in Dramamine®), and for
reactions to insect bites, hives and rashes.
Antihistamines also produce mild to moderate sedative effects that
cause drowsiness and sedation. A large segment of the sleep-deprived
population occasionally turns to antihistamines (with diphenhydramine)
for assistance in falling asleep. It is this feature which is of principal
interest here. Antihistamines containing diphenhydramine are
accompanied by warnings not to use them when driving, operating
machinery, or performing other hazardous activities, as they may cause
dizziness or drowsiness. Users also are cautioned that when taking
diphenhydramine, alcohol may further increase drowsiness and dizziness.
Many other commercially available, OTC sleep aids, {e.g.
Compoz, Nytol, Sleep-Exe, Somnitabs, etc.) contain antihistamine as the
active ingredient - most often diphenhydramine. However, to be effective
as sleep aids, many such antihistamine products would have to contain a
higher dosage of diphenhydramine than the amount normally contained in
each antihistamine pill/tablet. Somnitabs®, for example, contain 25 mg of
diphenhydramine per tablet. Some people in search of a suitable sleep aid
take Dramamine®, normally used for prevention and treatment of nausea.
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vomiting, or dizziness associated with motion sickness, as it normally
contains 50 mg of diphenhydramine which may relax them somewhat, and
help them to fall asleep.
Kay et al. (1997) conducted experiments demonstrating that
histamine- 1 receptor antagonists used to treat allergic disorders frequently
cause sedation. Most sleep inducing applications recommend a person take
antihistamine tablets at least 30 minutes to 1-hour prior to the desired
sleep period. Generally, these cause drowsiness and bring about shorter
sleep onset latencies (versus placebo). However, some findings also
indicate antihistamines often leave next-day drowsiness (Mendelson,
2005).
The concern for transportation safety is two-fold: (1) drivers who
regularly take antihistamines for allergy relief may encounter performance
impairments while driving, due to the drowsiness effects of maintenance
levels of diphenhydramine in the body; and (2) occasionally taking
antihistamines expressly for its sleep promoting characteristics may leave
one with sleep inertia hangover effects on performance upon awakening,
and these may impact driving safety.
Table 2 summarizes some key points of employing various sleep-
promoting compounds in operational settings, whether for commercial
transportation purposes or for some other work environments.
Stimulants And Alertness Enhancing Compounds
In the commercial driving community wake-promoting compounds
(stimulants) are often tried to maintain alertness, and to sustain safe
driving performance. A variety of stimulants include those in the schedule
II drug category, such as amphetamine-like compounds, but they also
include the two common, less threatening stimulants: caffeine and
nicotine. Some stimulant drugs have a role in the clinical treatment of
conditions of excessive sleepiness attributable to sleep disorders {e.g.
narcolepsy), attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, and depression
(Mitler and O’Malley, 2005; Kay, Michaels and Pakull, 2009). Because
their pharmacologic profiles are diverse, clinicians base selection of
stimulating agents on a variety of factors: time of onset, length of activity,
degree of tolerance in chronic use, expected side effects, abuse liability,
and importantly, knowledge of whether and how stimulants might affect a
person’s job performance.
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Table 2. Operational Consequences of Sleep-promoting Compounds
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Wake-promoting medications fall into three chemical classes: (1)
direct-acting sympathomimetics, such as the alpha-adrenergic agonist
phenylephrine; (2) indirect-acting sympathomimetics, such as
amphetamines, methylphenidate (e.g. Ritalin®), mazindol; and (3) the
''non-stimulants” such as modafmil and caffeine, each having different
mechanisms of action (Mitler and O’Malley, 2005).
Prescription Stimulants and Amphetamines - There is a vast literature
on most stimulants. We limit ourselves to those which hold potential for
practical use as alertness enhancing compounds in transportation
operations. The most potent stimulant of natural origin, cocaine, has
medicinal uses, but its use is illicit. Both cocaine and marijuana
(cannabis) have detrimental effects on driving performance (described in
Krueger, Teaman and Bergoffen, 2011). The “big three” most common
stimulant drugs: amphetamine, dextroamphetamine, and
methamphetamine, similar in their effects, may be prescribed to treat such
medical conditions as narcolepsy, attention deficit / attention deficit
hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and depression. Tike all stimulants,
amphetamines can produce dependence, and as their use became
commonplace, amphetamines were identified as having a high abuse
potential. In the U.S. OTC availability of amphetamines was stopped by
the Controlled Substances Act in 1971 when amphetamines became
schedule II drugs. Now they are obtainable legally only by prescription.
The military sometimes employ amphetamines in safety-controlled
situations to “get soldiers through particularly arduous missions”
(Caldwell et aL, 2009); but the use of amphetamines in any operational
environment is inherently risky. See Togan (2002) for the driving risks
associated with methamphetamine. Use of amphetamines is not likely to
ever become acceptable practice for ameliorating effects of sleep loss or
drowsiness of commercial vehicle drivers. However, urine drug testing
and post crash forensic analyses indicate some commercial drivers, as well
as some automobile drivers on the highways, do partake of amphetamines
and other stimulants not recommended while driving.
Modafmil - Modafmil is a chemically unique stimulant-like wake-
promoting compound developed in the 1970s. Lagarde and Batejet (1995)
described modafmil as an “eugregoric” meaning “good arousal.” The basis
of the eugregoric uniqueness of modafmil is its ability to stimulate only
when stimulation is required. As a result, the “highs and lows” associated
with other stimulants such as amphetamine are absent in modafmil. Due to
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the absence of significant euphoric or pleasurable effects, modafinil has
low potential for abuse and is thought to be non-addictive.
In 2004, modafinil (as Provigil®, Vigil® et al.) was approved by
the U.S. FDA for treatment of narcolepsy, for shift work sleep disorders
(SWSD), and for persistent and excessive daytime sleepiness associated
with effectively treated obstructive sleep apnea. In the U.S., modafinil,
classified as a stimulant, is a non-narcotic schedule IV controlled
substance and, therefore, requires a prescription. The central stimulating
effect of modafinil shows dose and time-related features (McClellan and
Spencer, 1998; Grady et al., 2010). Modafinil achieves maximum levels in
the blood between 2-4 hrs after administration; and its half-life ranges
from 10 to 15 hrs. Modafinil exhibits maximum vigilance enhancing
properties peaking 4 hrs after a dose of 200 mg. A participant can re-dose
with 100-200 mg every 4-6 hrs. Occasional side effects such as headache
can occur with 300 mg/day doses. Buguet, Moroz and Radomski (2003)
recommended 200 mg doses of modafinil for use in sustained operations.
Modafinil offers many of the same stimulant benefits as
amphetamines and large doses of caffeine with only minor side effects,
some of them less offensive, e.g., less threatening to blood pressure than
caffeine (Lagarde and Batejet, 1995; Baranski et al, 1998; Wesensten et
al, 2004). Several studies demonstrated utility of modafinil during
circadian lulls of mid-afternoon and after midnight. Importantly, unlike
with caffeine and any other stimulant, a unique feature of modafinil is that
a person wishing to remain awake can use modafinil to do so with a far
greater level of alertness, but at the same time modafinil will not prevent
the person from sleeping if he or she wants to take a nap (Balias et al.,
2002). That feature should offer a real boost for commercial driving
applications, and that aspect of modafinil should be explored in
subsequent research programs looking for just such an application. These
studies call for more research to determine the level of effectiveness of
using modafinil in potential operational protocols with commercial vehicle
drivers. While use of modafinil may one day become acceptable in
transportation operations, currently it is still a prescription chemical and as
such it is not easily affordable for most drivers. Since it may not provide
substantially better effects than judicious use of caffeine, it would seem
the caffeine route is currently the preferred choice of stimulants.
Caffeine - Caffeine is the most widely consumed psychoactive or CNS
stimulant in the world (Spiller, 1998, Chapter 12 by Smith and Tola). In
addition to its natural occurrence in some foods and coffee, caffeine is
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used commercially as a food additive and as a component of many
pharmaceutical preparations. In the amounts commonly found in foods,
beverages, and drugs, caffeine has measurable effects on certain types of
human performance. Caffeine use has been associated with increased
alertness and enhanced physical performance, and as a countermeasure to
the effects of sleep deprivation. Extensive research has been done on each
of these effects of caffeine. Interested readers are encouraged to consult
the Institute of Medicine’s (lOM) summary of research findings on the
efficacy of caffeine use (lOM-CMNR, 2001) and the book Caffeine by
Spiller(1998).
Caffeine is most often taken in by drinking some of the most
ubiquitous beverages as coffee, tea, coca, colas, sodas, or other soft drinks.
The amount of caffeine varies widely in these beverages. Brewed cups of
coffee contain -75-250 mg of caffeine per 8-ounce cup. Popular
specialized coffees, e.g. espresso, lattes, iced coffees, and so on, vary in
portion size but the amount of caffeine rarely exceeds 250-300 mg per
cup. Espressos contain more caffeine, ranging from 10 to 90 mg of
caffeine per 1 -ounce serving and therefore have a greater “kick” per cup.
Boutique shop 16-ounce coffees may contain as much as 550 mg of
caffeine. Decaffeinated coffees generally have less than 10-20 mg of
caffeine per 8-ounce cup.
Commercial ice teas have between 6 mg and 60 mg of caffeine in a
typical 8-ounce serving. The FDA limits soft drinks {e.g. Coca Cola, Pepsi
Cola, et al.) to 71 mg caffeine per 12 ounce beverage. Depending upon the
particular brand, many commercial soft drinks in the U.S. contain from 45
to 125 mg of caffeine per 12-ounce drink. Most but not all diet soft drinks
are devoid of caffeine. For a comprehensive chart of the caffeine content
of popular ingestibles, including soft drinks, caffeinated waters,
chocolates, and medications, see Mitler and O’Malley (2005).
Caffeine ingested in beverages is absorbed by the stomach within
30-60 minutes after oral administration. Caffeine is rapidly and completely
absorbed in humans, with 99% absorbed within 45 minutes. Once
absorbed, caffeine is distributed rapidly throughout the body. Caffeine is
sufficiently lipophilic to pass through all biological membranes, and it
readily crosses the blood-brain barrier. The mean half-life of caffeine in
plasma of healthy individuals is from 3 to 5 hours, although its half-life
may range between 1.5 and 9.5 hours. U.S. Army medical researchers
demonstrated that caffeine in a chewing gum form (StayAlert™) promotes
caffeine absorption via saliva, and it exhibits noticeable alerting effects in
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about seven minutes. Peak absorption of caffeine irom chewing gum
occurs in 30 minutes (Kamimori et al., 2002). Caffeinated chewing gum
provides a faster “picker-upper” when a person is particularly drowsy but
for practical reasons cannot cease work to go take a nap. Cafleinated
chewing gum appears to offer good application potential for commercial
drivers.
The pharmacological effects of caffeine include mild stimulation
and wakefulness, ability to sustain intellectual activity, and decreased
reaction times (lOM-CMNR, 2001). The observable, subjective effects of
caffeine last about 4 hours and may include a feeling of a slightly higher
heart rate and elevated body temperature, a noticeable perky mood,
increased alertness, and signs of improved cognition {i.e. reaction time and
memory) and physical performance. The effects of caffeine on cognitive
performance are diverse. Behavioral measures indicate a general
improvement in the efficiency of information processing after caffeine.
Caffeine has been demonstrated to improve or enhance vigilance /
alertness in both rested and sleep-deprived individuals. Caffeine is shown
to improve / maintain psychomotor performance and a variety of cognitive
functions during prolonged wakefulness (Hogervorst et al., 1999;
Hindmarch, 2000).
The body adapts or adjusts to the intake of caffeine; thus, with
prolonged use, some tolerance occurs. When daily heavy coffee drinkers
want to obtain an acute “jolt” from caffeine, perhaps to temporarily restore
alertness, they typically need to take in a higher dose of caffeine to feel the
desired effects.
Commercial drivers are especially interested in caffeine’s ability to
restore alertness when a person is at least partially sleep-deprived.
Judicious use of caffeine can restore alertness, improve performance on
mental tasks, and induce positive mood states. Bonnet and Arand (1994)
found caffeine increased alertness and performance on a visual vigilance
task, mental arithmetic tests, and logical reasoning in sleep deprived
subjects. Smith and Rubin (1999) found caffeine had a similar profile to
amphetamine - caffeine reversed sleep deprivation-induced longer
response times, and reduced the number of errors on a visual vigilance
task, as well as the sleep deprivation-induced decrements in a running
memory test.
In summary, use of caffeine offers a relatively safe and effective
means of maintaining or restoring cognitive performance even under
conditions of operational stress (lOM-CMNR, 2001; Caldwell et al., 2009;
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and others). Caffeine restores cognitive function during prolonged
wakefulness, and it can enhance certain types of cognitive performance,
most notably vigilance and reaction times, in rested individuals, regardless
of whether or not they are regular caffeine users. The doses of caffeine
most likely to be effective without causing undesirable mood effects are
within the range of 100 to 600 mg.
The paucity of actual highway driving studies examining effects of
caffeine suggests there needs to be more research to define variables for
commercial driver alertness management and fatigue countermeasure
programs. Questions should address when drivers should use caffeine, in
what doses, what format {e.g. beverages, tablets, chewing gum, timed
release capsules, and so on) how often, and what effects should be
anticipated, e.g. clarifying how long before preparing to sleep should one
refrain from its use, etc. In particular, additional research should be done
on the potential for use of slow-time-released caffeine and on caffeinated
chewing gum applications.
Nicotine - Nicotine, a stimulant, is also classified as a relaxant, because it
increases levels of dopamine in the brain (a hormone / neurotransmitter
that causes sensations of pleasure). Nicotine increases heart rate, blood
pressure and respiratory function. The more the nerve cells are excited, the
more dopamine is released, and the more pleasant the feeling (McGehee,
2006). Nicotine is readily available in the form of several tobacco sources
including cigarettes, cigars, and chewing tobacco. It is also available as
nicotine skin patches (subcutaneous), chewing gum (polacrilex), and other
products advertised for assistance in smoking cessation plans.
Nicotine enhances a limited range of behavior, and has complex
effects on human performance; but performance improvements are small.
Much like studies involving caffeine, interpretation of effects of nicotine
depends on whether it is tested under conditions of nicotine-deprivation
(i.e. nicotine withdrawal), or non-deprivation (he/she is a non-smoker, and
therefore a newcomer to tobacco/nicotine use). In nicotine-dependent
individuals, tobacco deprivation (withdrawal) can impair attentional and
cognitive abilities within 12 hours of smoking cessation (Gross, .larvik,
and Rosenblatt, 1993). Reinitiating cigarette smoking or nicotine
administration can reverse such performance deficits to pre-deprivation
levels. Whether improved performance associated with relief from
withdrawal should be considered cognitive enhancement, or simply
labeled restoral to baseline performance levels, has been questioned
(Hughes, 1991). Today the topic of nicotine deprivation and performance
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is prevalent in transportation industries because some airlines enlorce no-
smoking policies for their pilots, potentially causing llight pertormance
decrements in pilots who are smokers (Mumenthaler et al., 2010).
Studies of nicotine and simulator driving performance and those
examining nicotine effects on laboratory tasks depict a wide-variation in
designs, and produce conflicting and somewhat inconclusive results.
Perhaps the most pertinent psychological perfomiance study examining
nicotine applications for alertness enhancement during continuous
operations (but also d-amphetamine) is that of Newhouse et al. (1992). In
that Walter Reed study, nicotine was infused intravenously at doses of
0.25, 0.37 and 0.5 mg after 48 hours of wakefulness. Nicotine had no
significant impact on Multiple Sleep Latency Test (MSLT) measures or on
psychomotor performance. Additionally, nicotine did not effectively
improve cognitive performance; nor did nicotine improve alertness. This
prompted Newhouse et al. (1992) to conclude nicotine is “not an effective
stimulant for maintaining cognitive alertness during sustained
performance operations.” Thus, contrary to popular belief in the stimulant
utility of nicotine, the study by Newhouse et al. demonstrated that nicotine
may not be an effective stimulant for maintaining alertness during
extensively long work schedules.
The health risks of tobacco use and smoking have been well-
publicized. Risks of cancer, heart and lung disease, hypertension, and
cardiovascular and circulatory problems prevail as health risks from
smoking and tobacco use. For these health-risk-related reasons, nicotine
(at least from tobacco use) cannot be supported for maintaining alertness
during commercial driving.
Some of the salient features of the operational use of stimulating
compounds for promoting alertness are listed in Table 3.
Supplements: Herbal, Energy Boosters, Dietary And Health Foods
Every year the dietary and nutritional supplement industries
introduce another proliferation of chemical compounds in enticing new
formats {i.e. energy-boost drinks, bottled flavored water augmented with
vitamin mixes, nutritional supplement candy chews, caffeine infused
chewing gum, high energy food bars, lose-weight crash diet measures, and
so on). Marketers engage popular professional athletes and other
celebrities in splashy advertising to encourage consumers to buy/use such
products to achieve a better, more healthful or exciting lifestyle. However,
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manufacturers offer little published medieal and human performance
research data to support advertising claims about many such supplements.
Table 3 Stimulants and Wake Promoting Substances
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A variety of chemical substances and/or psychoactive compounds
that commercial drivers might ingest on occasion do not fit into the
categories of hypnotics and stimulants. These consumer products are
available in grocery, convenience, and drug stores, in health food shops
and at shopping center kiosks. Many of them are readily available in
convenience shops not far from the fuel pumps at highway rest stops.
A dietary supplement is typically taken by mouth. The product
contains an “ingredient” intended to beneficially supplement what one
normally eats. The Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act
(DSHEA) of 1994 places dietary supplements in a special category under
the general umbrella of “foods,” not drugs, and requires that every
ingredient or combination of ingredients be labeled as dietaiy
supplements. Manufacturers of supplements are responsible for ensuring
the safety of the ingredient(s). By statute, the FDA is not authorized to
require data supporting safety from the manufacturer, as it does for food
additives or drugs [see FDA web site on Center for Food Safety and
Nutrition at: http://www.cfsan.fda.gov and Kurtzweil, 1999].
Dietary supplements fall into two categories: Those that might
impart beneficial effects to improve health and performance with
negligible side effects, and those that have uncertain benefits which
potentially might harm health and performance. The challenge is to
determine which supplements fall into which category. In the U.S. there
are no commercial transportation-wide policies regarding dietary
supplements. Some safety concerns over supplements, especially the lack
of appropriate guidance for their use, were described when the lOM
assessed supplements for the military (lOM report: Greenwood and Oria,
2008). The paucity of medical guidance for use of supplements implies
that commercial drivers who take supplements might inadvertently
compromise their own performance or health. Without usable information
and guidance, drivers also might be concerned about risks, and therefore
forgo taking dietary supplements that might improve their performance or
health.
An evaluation of the numerous dietary supplements available is
especially difficult because many such products contain multiple
ingredients, they can have a changing composition over time, or because
people use them intermittently at doses that tend to be difficult to measure,
and mostly the amounts ingested are not recorded (Greenwood and Oria.
2008).
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Psychoactive herbal supplements - Several herbal supplements are
either included in foods or beverages, or are sold as capsules or powders in
health stores. Some of them have psychoactive properties. Guarana is a
powdery substance derived from seeds of a South American shrub plant.
Its active ingredient “guaranine” claims to be an effective energy booster,
and the physiological and behavioral effects it produces are nearly
identical to those obtained with caffeine. Ginkgo biloba, extracted from
the leaves of the small bushy tree, has been used for centuries in
traditional Chinese medicine to treat a variety of problems including
asthma and digestive disorders. The mild stimulating effects of both
guarana and ginkgo biloba give some small, but measurable boosts to
cognitive and reaction time performance (Kennedy, Scholey and Wesnes,
2000; Kennedy et al., 2004).
There are not enough reportable studies of guarana or ginkgo
biloba with cognitive or psychomotor performance to make definitive
statements about their efficaciousness for the commercial driving
community. Additional targeted research might help elucidate these issues.
Proponents of nutritional supplements advocate various herbs to
relieve stress. These herbal compounds include: Passion Flower, Lavender
Oil, Kava, Valerian, Ginseng, Saint John ’s Wort, and others. Additional
nutrient supplements that help with anxiety or stress are proteins such as
5-HTP, and amino acids such as Tryptophan, Tyrosine, and Theanine.
Most of these supplement products are commercially available in boutique
health food stores, nutrition shops, and in some grocery stores. While there
are some descriptive and scientific reports of studies of their effects on
health and performance, for many of these the evidence of their
importance as psychoactive substances which might impact commercial
driver performance is not significant.
Energy Supplement drinks, food bars, candy chews, and others -
Caffeine shows up along with other psychoactive substances in numerous
products best described as energy supplement drinks, as well as in energy
food bars, gels, etc., all of them advertised to boost one’s energy and
alertness level. Energy supplements are available in drug stores, grocery
stores, and in highway rest stop convenience stores.
Since the late 1990s, energy drinks [sometimes called Functional
Energy Drinks, or FEDs] have become quite popular. The major
ingredient in these energy drinks is caffeine, mixed along with other
caffeine-like chemicals {e.g. guarana), and several other psychoactive
ingredients. The range of caffeine in popular FEDs may be from 80 mg to
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as high as 500 mg per serving - which means the caffeine in a single
energy drink of some brands can exceed that contained in two six-packs of
Coca-Cola. FEDs do not replenish the body the way electrolyte
replacement sports drinks {e.g. Gatorade®) do. Mixing a FED and alcohol
can significantly dehydrate a person since both substances have diuretic
effects.
To remain within the spirit of the 1994 Dietary Supplement Health
and Education Act, manufacturers claim the drink ingredients derive from
health promoting vitamins, herbs, and other natural ingredients. Since
FDA does not regulate such supplements, the manufacturer bears full
responsibility for ensuring the product is both effective and safe for human
consumption and use.
However, there is a paucity of published detail on the contents or
descriptions of the human effects of FEDs. While the manufacturers of
FEDs tout the likely combination of energizing effects by placing caffeine
with other ingredients such as taurine (1000 mg) and glucuronolactone
(600 mg), researchers “debunk” the likely impact of taurine (stating it is
predominately the caffeine that brings about the desirable or undesirable
energetic effects). Most FEDs contain guarana, ginseng, and taurine in
such small amounts that they are far below the amounts expected to
deliver either therapeutic benefits or adverse events. Many FEDs contain
as much as 80 to 300 mg of caffeine and 35 grams of processed sugar per
8-ounce serving, amounts known to cause a variety of adverse health
effects. Commonly reported adverse effects seen with the amounts of
caffeine present in the energy drinks are insomnia, nervousness, headache,
and tachycardia.
Caffeine and taurine have direct effects on cardiac function and
hemodynamic status. In a study by Steinke et al. (2007), after subjects
drank two FEDs, no significant EKG changes were observed, but subjects’
heart rate increased 5-7 bpm, and after consuming just one FED, systolic
blood pressure increased 10 mm Hg. These physiological levels are likely
clinically significant for consumers who have hypertension, or cardiac
disease, and could be unhealthy for people who regularly consume
quantities of such energy drinks. Some newer energy drinks recently
increased amounts of potentially offending ingredients. Since many
commercial drivers suffer from hypertension, and are being medicated for
it, this raises safety concerns. Effects due to secondary substances,
apparently added largely to satisfy marketing ploys, are likely to be slight.
Health and performance concerns remain about verifying the potential
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synergistic or interactive effects of the several ingredients found in FEDs,
which people may consume in considerable quantity while they happen to
be taking medications and other chemical substances.
Kennedy and Scholey (2004) demonstrated that combinations of
caffeine and glucose can produce some of the same cognitive performance
effects without adding other substances into energy drinks. Van den Eynde
et al. (2008) stated most of the effects of energy drinks on cognitive
performance are related mainly to the presence of caffeine. They suggest
further investigation into effects of the lesser known ingredients of energy
drinks {e.g. taurine and glucuronolactone) to gain a better understanding of
the possible interactions of the multiple substances.
Several experiments demonstrated the potential applicability of
FEDs for reducing sleepiness and sleep-related driving incidents after
sleep restriction {e.g. Reyner and Elorne, 2002). The effectiveness of FEDs
also was shown during simulated first-night shiftwork (Jay et al., 2006);
but FEDs also adversely impacted sleep during recovery sleep the
following day.
Additional research with FEDs is called for, preferably to be
conducted in driving simulators. Subsequently, guidance about the
measured effects of FEDs on health and performance would be
appreciated in the commercial transportation industries.
Five-and six-hour power energy booster drinks - In part, in response to
the reports of health concerns expressed with FEDs, the energy drink
industry now markets newer alternative energy drinks. Intense advertising
on U.S. television and a wide availability in convenience stores, including
truck fuel stops, has made two of these new drinks the best known to date;
(1) the new “2-ounce shof’: 5-Hour Energy™ drink (distributed by Living
Essentials), and (2) another 2-ounce shot drink entitled: 6-Hour Power™.
Both products identify themselves as “vitamin supplement drinks.”
While these vitamin-laced drinks may not harm a person if taken
according to the directions, there is also no published evidence that they
have functional validity for safe on-the-road usage. No research reports on
the efficacy, safety, or cognitive effects and other performance and health
implications of using either the 5-Hour Energy or the 6-Hour Power
“shots” were located. Additional research is recommended on this
potential alternative to the functional energy drinks if for no other reason
that they are apparently now being consumed by so many commercial
drivers.
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Energy boost powders, pills, food bars, etc. - A large number of
“nutritional-energy boost” food bars, pills, tablets, powders, and so on, are
available, each advertising themselves as energy booster products
containing herbs, vitamins and minerals. Most of these present splashy
colors and advertising displays, and offer to increase or enhance
performance (whether it be physical or cognitive performance), to
alleviate stress, provide more energy, provide power to achieve, and so on.
No scientific reports were located which examined or evaluated cognitive
performance effects attributed to vitamin laced drinks, electrolyte
replacement drinks, or energy boost supplements in pill or bar forms, etc.
Controlled laboratory studies should be carried out to examine and report
on the efficacy and safety of use of such readily available products by
commercial drivers who travel over-the-road.
Table 4 lists many of the supplemental substances described above.
Summary And Conclusion
The literature makes clear that numerous psychoactive medications
(whether prescribed or available over-the-counter) have measurable
effects on vehicle drivers and may impact job performance (both
positively and negatively) in safety risk occupations - especially a concern
for commercial drivers. Some hypnotics, stimulants, and nutritional
supplements have been used safely in various sustained work settings.
Such successful applications of “more exotic” pharmaceutical
interventions mostly have been witnessed in select military operations
wherein limited use, acute administration of varying sleep aid and
stimulant compounds is permitted with a goal to “get military operators
through a particular mission.” Military policies require that such
applications be in accordance with rigorous safety control rules.
The literature reaffirms that commercial drivers can legitimately
and safely use only a few sleep aids (hypnotics) or alertness enhancers
(stimulants) during transportation operations. Some of these, such as the
quick acting, short half-life sleep promotion compounds, are only useable
thi'ough prescription from a qualified medical provider. Antihistamines
and synthetic melatonin are permissible as sleep aids without prescription.
Caffeine still remains as the most promising permissible stimulant for use
by commercial drivers.
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Table 4 Psychoactive Supplements Affecting Health and Performance
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The scant research literature on numerous readily available nutritional
supplements and other chemical substances likely ingested by commercial
drivers makes tenuous any assessments of their effects on worker
performance and health. Since these supplements are so readily available
in public markets, more solid laboratory research work is needed on some
of these, especially to delineate their possible effects on drivers’ levels of
alertness and safe driving performance.
References
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cognitive performance. Military Psychology, 10, 173-193.
Berghaus, G. and Grass, H. (1997). Concentration-effect relationship with
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Kay, G.G., Michaels, M.A. and Pakull, B. (2009). Simulated driving changes in young
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Fall 2010
86
INSTRUCTIONS TO AUTHORS
1. Manuscripts should be in Word (Office 03/07) and not PDF.
2. They should be 6,000 words or fewer (exceptions may be made by
the Editor). If there are 7 or more graphics, reduce the number of
words.
3. Graphics (photographs, drawings, figures, tables) must be in
graytone only (no color accepted), and be easily resizable by the
editors to fit the Journal’s page size. Do not wrap text around the
graphics.
4. References (and bibliography, if included) may be in the format
generally acceptable for the disciplinary or professional field
represented by the manuscript. They must be accurate, complete,
and consistent in format throughout the paper.
5. Include both an e-mail address and a postal address for the author
(or primary author) including title and institutional affiliation if
any.
6. Papers are peer reviewed.
7. Send Manuscripts by e-mail as an attachment, or on a CD, to
Joumal@washacadsci.org or directly to the editor. Dr Jacqueline
Maffucci - iamaffucci@gmail.com. Hard copy can not be
accepted. Manuscripts can be accepted by any of the Board of
Discipline Editors.
Emanuela Appetiti - anthropology at eappetitiiff hotmail.com
Elizabeth Corona - systems science at elizabethcorona@gmail.com
Jim Eigenreider - science education at iim@!deepwater.org
Terrell Erickson - environmental natural sciences at
terrell.erickson 1 @.wdc. nsda.gov
Mark Holland - botany at maholland@salisbuiT.edu
Kiki Ikossi - engineering at ikossi@ieee.org
Carol Eacampagne - mathematics at clacampagne@earthlink.net
Raj Madhaven - engineering at rai.madhaven@)nist.gov
Kent Miller - computer sciences at kent.l.miller@alumni.cmu.edu
Jean Mielczarek - physics and biology at mielczar@phvsics.gmu.edu
Robin Stombler - health at rstombler@auburnstrat.com
Alain Touwaide - history of medicine at atouwaide@J~iotmail.com
Steve Tracton - atmospheric studies at straction@hotmai 1 .com
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Editor’s Comments J. Maffucd i
Instructions to Authors jj
Fields, Alternative Medicine and Physics ... Commentary E. Mieiczarek. 1
Leafing Through History: Sciences, Humanities, Society ... Book Review A. Touwaide 5
Calendars: What Day |s It Anyway? ... Review S. Howard 13
Facilitating Student Autonomy in Project Based Learning J. Egenneder 35
Membership List - 20)0 47
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Membership Application 57
ISSN 0043-0439
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Editor of the Journal
Jacqueline Maffucci
Associate Editor:
Sethanne Howard
The Journal of the Washington Academy of
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The Journal \s the official organ of the Academy.
It publishes articles on science policy, the history
of science, critical reviews, original science
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Editor’s Comments
As we enter into 2011, 1 wanted to take a moment to recognize and
thank all of the Washington Academy of Sciences members, as well as
those authors that have contributed to the Journal over the years. As an
editor, it is always exciting to receive the diversity of manuscripts that
highlight the scientific achievement of the Capital region. This couldn’t
happen without the support of our members and contributors. Beyond that,
the mission of the Washington Academy of Sciences, which is in essence
to support collaborative efforts in the realm of Science, Technology,
Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM), is particularly important given the
current concerns about the U.S. performance in this area. All of our
members and contributors are helping to further this cause through their
efforts not only as Academy members and Journal contributors, but
scientists, educators, and mentors. For that, I thank you.
The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences is only one
way that our members support STEM. Through the Academy’s programs,
including the various guest speaker events, the Capital Science
conference, and the STARS program to support K-12 science fairs, we
have truly dedicated ourselves to advancing STEM. As the new year
begins, I look forward to working with current and future scientists to
continue to fulfill this mission, both as the editor of the Journal, and a
member of WAS. With that, I am excited to introduce the Winter 2010
issue of the Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences.
In this issue, we begin with a brief commentary by Eugenie
Mielczarek concerning confusions surrounding the use of the term “field”
in alternative medicine. Following this, Alain Touwaide presents a book
review of current works that together help to compile a history of the
sciences over time. Then, what better way to celebrate the ringing in of
2011 than to take a moment and reflect on how this thing called time, and
more specifically the calendar, came to be. Sethanne Howard has prepared
a comprehensive review, putting to words how time actually came to exist
in the form of our present day calendar. Finally, keeping STEM education
initiatives in mind, James A. Egenrieder offers a synopsis on how
educators can use project-based learning to enhance student experiences in
STEM education to encourage the pursuit of STEM careers in the future.
Enjoy and Happy New Year!
Editor, The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences
Winter 2010
11
INSTRUCTIONS TO AUTHORS
1 . Manuscripts should be in Word (Office 03/07) and not PDF.
2. They should be 6,000 words or fewer (exceptions may be made by
the Editor). If there are 7 or more graphics, reduce the number of
words.
3. Graphics (photographs, drawings, figures, tables) must be in
graytone only (no color accepted), and be easily resizable by the
editors to fit the Journal’s page size. Do not wrap text around the
graphics.
4. References (and bibliography, if included) may be in the format
generally acceptable for the disciplinary or professional field
represented by the manuscript. They must be accurate, complete,
and consistent in format throughout the paper.
5. Include both an e-mail address and a postal address for the author
(or primary author) including title and institutional affiliation if
any.
6. Papers are peer reviewed.
7. Send Manuscripts by e-mail as an attachment, or on a CD, to
Journal@washacadsci.org or directly to the editor. Dr Jacqueline
Maffucci - iamaffucci@gmail.com. Hard copy can not be
accepted. Manuscripts can be accepted by any of the Board of
Discipline Editors.
Emanuela Appetiti - anthropology at eappetiti@>hotmail.com
Elizabeth Corona - systems science at elizabethcorona@gmail.com
Jim Eigenreider — science education at iimfaideepwater.org
Terrell Erickson - environmental natural sciences at
terrell.erickson 1 @wdc. nsda.gov
Mark Holland - botany at maholland@salisbur> .edu
Kiki Ikossi - engineering at ikossi@ieee.org
Carol Lacampagne - mathematics at clacampagne@earthlink.net
Raj Madhaven - engineering at rai.madhaven@nist.gov
Kent Miller - computer sciences at kent.l.miller@alumni.cmu.edu
Jean Mielczarek - physics and biology at mielczar@phvsics.gmu.edu
Robin Stombler - health at rstombler@auburnstrat.com
Alain Touwaide - history of medicine at atouwaide@hotmail.com
Steve Tracton - atmospheric studies at stracton@hotmail.com
Washington Academy of Sciences
1
Fields, Alternative Medicine and Physics^
Eugenie Vorburger Mielczarek
George Mason University
In 1996 THE American Physical Society, responding to a request
from the National Research Council, was asked to examine the potential
health hazards of power lines. One of the concerns was that
electromagnetic background fields of 2 milligauss might cause cancer (for
comparison the Earth’s magnetic field is 500 milligauss and fields
generated by human physiological processes are hundreds of thousands of
times less than 2 milligauss). Monitors of outdoor exposure for children to
wear were marketed to parents. “Some city regulations sought to constrain
B fields to less than 2 milligauss.” The report, which was a comprehensive
study of the alleged dangers, included both molecular and epidemiologic
studies and found that no adverse health effects could be attributed to
these low fields. One of the conclusions emphasized that physical
calculations rule out carcinogenic effects because at physiological
temperatures thermal noise fields in human cells are larger than the
background fields from power lines. Thus the political agenda,
concerned with fear of carcinogenic mechanisms arising from low-level
magnetic fields, lost credibility.
However, about 10 years later claims for health effects from
mattress pads equipped with small magnets were marketed. A study of this
was funded by the National Center for Complementary and Alternative
Medicine and claims for their benefits were published in alternative
medicine journals. Some of the rationales for the claims were ludicrous. I
attended one sales pitch which claimed their mattress magnets were better
because they incorporated only North Poles. About the same time, small
300 gauss magnets began to appear on the shelves of drug stores.
In 2007 a lawsuit brought by the National Council against Health
Fraud against advertisers of these products was successfully settled. I was
one of the persons who agreed to appear -as an expert witness if needed.
The Federal Trade Commission also threatened to prosecute purveyors
who claimed healthful benefits for these products. Amazingly, in the last
Parts of this blog also appeared in the April 2010 Newsletter of the Forum on Physics
and Society of the American Physical Society
http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/20 1 OOTmielczarek.cfm
Winter 2010
2
few years the health and medical and nursing communities, in their
integrated medicine outreach, are now marketing the unsubstantiated
claims that healing fields of 2 milligauss are emitted from the hands of
practitioners.^ This belief in distance healing. Therapeutic Touch (TT),
Reiki, and Qiqong cobble the language of physics with the language of
physiology and mislead the patient.
For example, in Therapeutic Touch the protocol requires that a
therapist moves his or her hands over the patient’s “energy field,”
allegedly “tuning” a purported “aura” of biomagnetic energy that extends
above the patient’s body. This is thought to somehow help heal the patient.
(Curiously, the rubrics never define what may happen if the practitioner is
inept). Although this is less than one percent of the strength of Earth’s
magnetic field, corresponds to billions of times less energy than the energy
your eye receives when viewing even the brightest star in the night sky,
and is billions of times smaller than that needed to affect biochemistry, the
web sites of prominent clinics nevertheless market the claims."^’^ This
belief has been published in the peer reviewed medical literature.^ Silence
on this issue by the major scientific societies is a serious compromise of
the scientific endeavors of those of us who work at the frontier of physics,
medicine and biology.
The terms, energy and field, are used by alternative medicine
practitioners, and integrative medicine physicians without any
understanding of their meaning; their on-line and public lectures impart
the pretense that fields are unknown philosophical constructs. Invited
speakers at medical meetings at major academic institutions philosophize
about relationships between phenomena of many different magnitudes and
sources, such as dark matter and biochemistry. The laws of quantum
mechanics and electromagnetism are responsible for the biochemical
bonding of molecules. Scientists understand that the discovery of dark
matter is associated with the gravitational forces in our universe. No
formulation of the properties of dark matter could have any observable
effects between individual molecules in a cell.
What follows is a tutorial on fields:
Transmission of a force when objects are not in contact is
represented by a set of vectors defined at all points in space which
enumerate the direction and magnitude of the force. This set of vectors
constitutes the field. There are four fundamental forces: gravitational,
electromagnetic, weak nuclear, and strong nuclear. Other fundamental
forces have been looked for and not found. Scientists cannot rule out the
Washington Academy of Sciences
3
possibility that science may one day find a new force field, but should
such a discovery occur it will be through using the tools and methodology
of seience. Theorists understand that the strength of such a force must be
much less than our weakest known force.
We live in a gravitational field which causes an object near the
surface of the Earth to fall with acceleration such that its velocity increases
each second by 32 ft per sec. Further out from our planet this number is
less. Place signs with these numbers all over space and you have a picture
of the field and its associated action at a distance force. Knowing these
numbers allows us to build rockets and satellites and explore outer space.
Similarly we know the numbers for electromagnetic fields. This
allows us to build MRI machines. Ultrasonic imaging arises from us
knowing the numbers at the level of cells to image the densities in tissues.
We are constantly bathed in electromagnetic fields from communication
devices.
Studies of equations for these forces and the enumeration of the
strength of their fields underlie our current technology. When energy
fields are used as a medium for conveying information, scientists ask and
answer the following key questions:
1 . How large is the signal?
2. What is the transmitter located in the source?
3. What and where is the receiver?
4. How can the device be tuned and detuned?
5. Lastly, how can one replicate this by a device to be used for
medical intervention?
The alleged source of TT’s purported biomagnetic field is the
practitioner, and the alleged receiver is the patient. Beyond this, TT
practitioners fail to give detailed and plausible answers to the key
questions above. TT practitioners’ adoption of the scientific term
“biomagnetic” field, without an equation to describe the field and without
any grounding in known physics and biochemistry, conveys the
impression of scientific respectability to claims that have no scientific
basis. Its claims are anecdotal and no measurements, such as blood work
or respiratory function, are made. I’m sure your ENT or General
Practitioner would never suggest visits to a TT practitioner to cure a
hearing loss. Practitioners of alternative medicine never recommend it for
intervention that has an easily measurable physiological response. Clinical
trials using TT associated with the 1.8 million dollar NIH grant, which
Winter 2010
4
were to measure the health of women with cervical cancer, were
completed in 2006 and 2007 but a recent search using ClinicalTrials.gov
database yields no reported results.
Curiously, expert scientific thinking about and inventions using fields
are welcomed by the evidence-based medical community but rejected by
the integrative medicine community when this knowledge contradicts
belief systems purported to be medically healing.
' David Hafemeister, “Resource Letter BELFEF-1: Biological effects of low-frequency
electromagnetic r\e\ds,'" American Journal of Physics 64(8), 974-981 (1996).
^ Robert K. Adair, “Constraints on biological effects of weak extremely-low-frequency
electromagnetic Physical Review AAdif), 1039-1048 (1991).
^ A report detailing the current claims, authored by myself and Derek Araujo, was issued
by the Center for Inquiry, on September 28, 2009.
http://www.centerforinquiry.net/uploads/attachments/A_Fracture_in our_Health_Ca
re_Paying_for Non-Evidence Based_Medicine.pdf
'* “Healing Touch is performed by registered nurses who recognize, manipulate and
balance the electromagnetic fields surrounding the human body, thereby promoting
healing and the well-being of body, mind and spirit.” Scripps Institute website:
http://www.scripps.org/services/integrative-medicine/services
^ Affiliated with Harvard Medical Center is Brigham Young Hospital’s Osher Center.
Course offerings have featured Reiki: “During this class you will receive a reiki level
one attunement. This attunement enables you to become a channel for this universal
healing energy which will be with you for your lifetime. From this point on you will
be a reiki practitioner. With level one reiki you will be able to do healing on
yourself, friends, family and pets.” See http://hms.harvard.edu/hms/home.asp; see
also http://www.brighamandwomens.org/medicine/oshercenter/.
" J. Orthop. Res. 26( 1 1 ), 1 54 1 - 1 546 (2008).
Washington Academy of Sciences
Leafing through History:
Sciences, Humanities, Society
5
Alain Touwaide
Historian of Sciences, Smithsonian Institution
The history of sciences dramatically grew as a scientific discipline
during the 20^’’ century, particularly in the United States, and it is now
present in the cultural panorama throughout the country and in our daily
life. Sputnik is in the political discourse, human origins are debated in the
public arena, and the formation of the solar system is among those
questions that impassion societies. On the other side, science is very much
present in the historical discourse. DNA sequencing made it possible to
identity the Iceman, chemical analysis helps reconstruct the history of
Holy Land, and laboratory work offers new ways to identify ancient
handwritten books.
In recent years, the history of sciences has been transformed. It is
no longer a documentary discipline aimed at illustrating the development
of ideas, and discoveries, but has become part of the making of science.
The most representative example is probably the research of Luca Cavalli
Sforza (2005)‘ at Stanford University. His research on population genetics
is key for the reconstruction of the complicated history of population
movements and, among others, the understanding of the differentiated
susceptibility (or immunity) to diseases of the several groups that make up
our world.
In this review, I wish to illustrate this new orientation of the
current history of sciences by presenting some of the most recent
published works (including some not so recent). I proceed by free
associations of ideas, rather than by following a strict linear order, be it
thematic, alphabetic (authors’ names) or any other. Rather than a series of
formal reviews, this is a walk through the most advanced historical
research with the goal of visiting some of the current programs, ideas, and
new avenues for possible future new developments.
Among the hot topics in science and archeology, one of the most
intriguing is probably the origin of humans - the possible simultaneity of
the Neanderthal and Homo sapiens sapiens species, and the birth of
culture. At least it is a question that is regularly (and often unexpectedly)
renewed with archeological discoveries. Archeologist David Wengrow
(2010)" systematically reviews the available evidence on such defining
Winter 2010
6
elements as the birth of agriculture, writing, and urbanism. And he
suggests that the rise of modem civilization did not happen as a localized
phenomenon (contrary to the traditional narrative that identifies Egypt,
Mesopotamia, and, later on Greece, as the birthplaces of all this), but
required the collaboration of - and exchanges between - the several
groups in the area stretching from Africa to India to the east, and to
Central Europe to the north. Nothing happened in isolation in what was
already a global world.
An echo of this inter-related universe can be found much later, in
the Roman Empire. A vast territory and a unique polity that succeeded in
bringing and keeping together a great variety of people, the Roman
Empire at its zenith was also a sort of huge museum of natural history, a
virtual collection of both the most usual and the most unheard rarities in
the world, and a vast and all-encompassing library that contained a copy
of almost all that had been written until then, be it in literature or in
science. Classicist James C. McKeown (2010)“' (University of Wisconsin,
Madison) has virtually recreated in the space of a book what may have
been the ‘National Museum of Natural History of the Roman Empire.’
This is, because of the way he approaches it, a fresco describing the
Roman world in all its aspects, a cut-and-paste collage in the way of the
surrealists in the 20‘^ century, or - to use just a few comparisons - an
encyclopedia that could have rivaled Diderot and d’Alembert or, more
modemly, the Internet, Google, the Encyclopedia of Life^ and the
Biodiversity Heritage Library^
McKeown read most of ancient available literature, cut out every
single bit of information, pasted it in his notebook, and re-arranged this
treasure trove in twenty-three thematic sections that tell us everything (and
even more) about the Roman world, Roman science, Roman daily life, and
Roman intimacy. We go from Family Life to Women, passing through
Education, Army, Medicine, Farming, Animals, Food and Drink, and even
Toilets and Not for the Puritanical. The point is not so much to collect
rare, unique, and curious facts that nobody had researched before in the
venerable and venerated classics (including in the much less venerable
graffiti on Pompeii’s walls), but much more to glance at the people behind
their uses, from the most brilliant and spectacular to the most modest and
apparently insignificant. Science is no exception in his treasure trove. For
example, Pliny in his Natural History noted - most probably on the basis
of hearsay, if not common or popular knowledge, rather than bookish
learning - that mandrake is drunk as an antidote to snakebites and as an
anesthetic before surgery or injections, but care must be taken with the
Washington Academy of Sciences
7
dosage: one whiff of it is enough to send some people to sleep f Now that
Harry Potter has made mandrake popular and brought it into families’
homes, the information is more precious than ever.
Similar research has been made by a team of historians who,
grouped in the virtual space of a book, studied Everyday Objects (2010)''"
(this is the title of the collection of their essays) in the Medieval and Early
Modern worlds. Rather than a cabinet of curiosities, this is a thrift market
where we try to guess with the authors who were the previous owners of
the objects. We see old pair of shoes, pins and aglets, pots of all kinds, or
bagpipes, for example, represented in books, described in literature, and
even retrieved from walls where they were concealed. All this brie a brae
(perfectly symbolized by the image of old, twisted, and rusted nails on the
cover, significantly in sepia rather than in color) tells us a lot about people,
and invites us to be careful with our own belongings and what they will
suggest about their owners (that is, us) to third-millennium archeologists.
Ancient glass is among the remains of the past. Cracking the
mysteries of its making is another contribution of the history of sciences.
Italian historian Marco Beretta did so in a volume whose title announces
the multifaceted nature of his research: The Alchemy of Glass. Counterfeit,
Imitation, and Transmutation in Ancient Glassmaking (2009).''*" Here the
historian transmutes himself into a sort of alchemist who plays with matter
to force it to reveal its secrets. Just like the Belgian historian of sciences
Robert Halleux (1978)*^ did twenty-five years ago with ancient treatises on
stones and metals, Beretta has moved the historical inquiry from his studio
and library into a laboratory of chemistry and the atelier of a Murano glass
maker in order to experiment in persona the ways of producing glass used
in antiquity. This experimental history gives a new dimension to a
traditional scholarly research; from a fundamental investigation, it turns
into a technique that can be applied in the archeological restoration of
works of art. The frontier between history, laboratory, and museum
gallery, for example, is thinner than ever, and the clear definition of
academic and technical fields is blurred in a way that reminds one of the
ancient practice of science as illustrated by Leonardo da Vinci, for
instance, who was everything together, a scholar and a scientist, a painter
and a sculptor, a mathematician and a poet, an illusionist (think of La
Joconde’s smile whose mystery has been recently explained) and an
engineer.
A deep knowledge of things and inter-penetration of what is now
identified as different fields of science and practice permeates John
Winter 2010
8
Riddle’s most recent book (1997).’^ The author has been known - and
criticized - in the academia for his books on contraceptive, abortifacient,
and similar substances in the past. Also, he has been instrumental in the
development of what has been called the American School of the History
of Pharmacy, claiming that ancient medico-pharmaceutical science had an
empirical basis and is fundamentally valid. He even reached the
conclusion (1985)^ that the H^-century Greek physician Dioscorides, often
considered as the Father of Pharmacology (just as Hippocrates is graced
with the title of Father of Medicine), had a pre-science of modem
pharmaco-chemistry. On this basis, he has suggested that ancient
pharmaco-therapeutic literature should be used as a source for current dmg
discovery. In his most recent work (2010),^’ he returns to these topics and
focuses on pomegranate, mandrake, artemisia and chaste tree, whose
medicinal usages he retrieves from ancient texts and validates on the basis
of contemporary science. Strangely enough, he concludes, no one of these
plants is still in use, with the remarkable exception of Chinese artemisia,
which has been reinstated in the treatment of malaria. As he puts it, “we
lost so many clues that the past provides for us.”
This question of losing a scientific heritage is at the heart of all the
discussion about the role of the Arabo-Islamic world in western science.
Characteristically, in the long tradition of studies of the relations between
classical antiquity and the Arabic world (through the mediation of the
Byzantine empire), the focus gradually shifted during the 20^^ century
from highlighting the loans made by the Arabic world from Greco-Roman
antiquity to a more equilibrated view considering both loans and
contributions. These original developments were transmitted to the Middle
Ages, be it from Baghdad in the East or Al-Andalus (that is, Spain) in the
West. In 2008, however, the French historian Sylvain Gouguenheim
claimed that the scientific patrimony generated in Antiquity was
transmitted to the West almost directly, that is, without passing through
the Arabic world.
This provocative thesis has been rightly refuted and may have
contributed to the production of a certain number of new works aimed at
Western readers (scientists or not) that summed up the scientific
achievements of the Arabic world. Jonathan Lyons (2009)""" offers a broad
presentation of the scientific enterprise in the Arabic world that includes
the question of the transmission of Arabic science to the West.
Significantly, his work borrows its title from what has been believed for a
long time to be an office of translation in Baghdad, the capital of the
classical Arabic world: the House of Wisdom. Whatever the historical
Washington Academy of Sciences
9
reality of this House of Wisdom, the Arabic world translated indeed most
of the ancient scientific heritage, reformulated, adapted it to its own
culture, and transmitted it further to both Byzantium and the West. John
Freely (2010)^''' deals exclusively with the question of the transmission of
Arabic science to the West. Although the non-specialist will probably not
know it, the title of the book is more than just a title; it is a statement. It
has been built on the model of a classic in the field, about the transmission
of science from Greece to the Arabic world: De Lacy O’Leary (1949).’^''
A perfect illustration of the transfer of Arabic science to the West
is represented by Gerbert d’Aurillac (ca. 945-950 - d. 1003), a scientist
who went to Al-Andalus to learn from the Arabs. Significantly, in 999 this
scholar was elected pope Sylvester III. His biography and scientific
itinerary has been reconstructed in the form of a narrative by Nancy Marie
Brown.'^''^ Of course, I will not agree with the sub-title and its claims of
Dark Ages in the West (since there was no such thing as a Dark Age as
historical research constantly demonstrates); nevertheless, when the
expression is opposed to the Light of Science, I will be more inclined to
accept it as a sign of the scientific difference between the Arabic world
and the West in that time.
One of the critical issues in the study of the continuity between the
two worlds is the relation between science and faith. Jonathan Lyons
concluded with this topic (p. 201):
“under the direct influence of the Arab Aristotelians, Thomas
[Aquinas] had carved out a truce between traditional church
teachings and the discoveries of the emerging generations of
modem Western scientists. That compromise defines the mles of
engagement to this day between the realms of faith and reason.
And it stakes the Arabs’ claim as inventors of the West ....”
Ahmad Dallal (2010),^''" a professor at the American University of Beirut,
goes directly to this debate by investigating how Arabs articulated the
practice of science with philosophy and religion. He framed the two
chapters (that make the core of the work) with an introductory chapter on
the birth of Arabic science and a conclusive one on the reception of Arabic
science in western historiography. In this conclusive chapter, we discover
how the western vision of the Arabic world has been shaped by
Orientalism, that is, the academic discipline having as an object the
cultures of Near East.
Winter 2010
10
This reference to Orientalism reminds us of the book by Edward
Said'^"'*" (1935-2003) and his denouncing of Western colonialism and its
embodiment in the Orientalist scholarly enterprise. However timely and
influential it has been, Orientalism is now outdated and has been revisited
by philologist and historian Karla Mallette (University of Michigan) in her
book (2010).^^^ Mallette rightly points out that Orientalism (as an
academic discipline rooted in a political ground) is a North-European
phenomenon, not shared by the southern countries overlooking the
Mediterranean. In the latter, indeed, the Arabic presence was part of the
life of the populations, contributed to the shaping of the nations, and
pertains to the local heritage, contrary to what happened in the north.
Historian of science Margaret J. Oslef'^'^ (1942-2010) in her book
(2010) scrutinizes the scientific concepts of nature from the 16^^ century
on and shows how they are permeated - if not shaped - by classical
culture and Arabic science, and also - and surprisingly, since we are
talking about the beginnings of Western, rational science - by biblical
tradition. When ancient (that is, mainly Greek) classical texts became
much more available thanks to the development of printing, the Protestant
Reformation could play an important role in the way scientists conceived
the world. What is more important is that the definition of the humanist
and scientific fields dating back as far as Aristotle (384-322 B.C.) was
blurred as was also their traditional separation, something that generated a
tension between science and religion. Interestingly, the current director of
the National Institutes of Health, Francis S. Collins, who made history
through the genome project (2010)''''’, illustrated on a personal basis how
this tension between science and religion could be resolved in The
Language of God: A Scientist Presents Evidence for Belief (2006).""”
Beyond this question of relationship between personal creed and
the practice and theories of science(s), the transmission of theories and
ideas is not a phenomenon limited to Antiquity and the Middle Ages,
which the above discussion may suggest. In his work, Avner Ben-Zaken
(20 1 0)""'" shows that the ancient heritage was actively studied in the East
after the Renaissance, together with Western scientific theories diffused in
the East through a reverse process of transmission, from west to east (that
is, European science going east). In the East, this body of knowledge
stimulated scientific thinking and contributed to the development of new
theories, thus bringing to light a deep net of multi-directional relationships
between East and West, contrary to the generally admitted view of a
supremacy of the West and an increasing distance between the two parts
Washington Academy of Sciences
of the Old World (and, going together with this geographical and cultural
division, between Christian and Muslim traditions).
I wish to add a further touch of geographical multi-dimensionality
to the image above, which goes beyond the limits of the Old World:
algebra came from China as Roger Hart brilliantly demonstrates
(2011).^'^"'
As this overview of a selection from recent publications shows, the
history of the sciences is part of the current debates in science. This is
illuminated by putting the selections in perspective. It goes beyond,
however, and provides elements toward a more equilibrated evaluation of
the many components that contributed - and still contribute - to create the
gigantic mosaic of our world (not only of science) by showing how
science is both the expression of the many contemporary societies and a
key factor in their shaping. As such, it is not only a specialist (or
dilettante) activity, but a key to open access to world societies that are
inseparable from the practice of science(s) and the study of societies.
' The History and Geography of Human Genes (Princeton University Press, 1994).
On Cavalli Sforza’s research, see, for example, Linda Stone and Paul F. Lurquin, A
Genetic and Cultural Odyssey. The Life and work of L. Luca Cavalli-Sforza
(Columbia University Press, 2005).
“ What Makes Civilization? The Ancient Near East and the Future of the West (Oxford
University Press, 2010).
A Cabinet of Roman Curiosities. Strange Tales and Surprising Facts from the world’s
Greatest Empire (Oxford University Press, 2010).
http;//www.eol.org.
'' http://biodiversitylibrary.org.
Natural History, 2. 1 50, reproduced p. 71 mA Cabinet of Roman Curiosities.
Tara Hamling and Catherine Richardson eds. Everyday Objects (Farnham and
Burlington, VT: Ashgate, 2010).
Sagamore Beach, MA: Science History Publications, 2009.
Robert Halleux and Jacques Schamp, Les lapidaires grecs. Paris: Belles Lettres, 1985,
to be complemented with John F. Healy, Mining and Metallurgy in the Greek and
Roman World. London: Thames and Hudson, 1978.
Contraception and Abortion from the Ancient World to the Renaissance and Eve 's
Herbs. A History of Contraception and Abortion in the West, both Cambridge, MA,
and London: Harvard University Press, 1992 and 1997, respectively.
Dioscorides on Pharmacy and Medicine (History of Science Series 3). University of
Texas Press, 1985.
Winter 2010
12
Goddesses, Elixirs, and Witches. Plants and Sexuality throughout Human History.
New York, NY: Palgrave/Macmillan, 2010.
The House of Wisdom. How the Arabs transformed Western Civilization (New York,
Berlin, London: Bloomsbury Press, 2009).
Aladdin ’s Lamp. How Greek Science Came to Europe through the Islamic World (New
York, NY: Vintage Books, 2010).
How Greek Science passed to the Arabs (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1949.
The Abacus and the Cross. The Story of the Pope Who Brought the Light of Science to
the Dark Ages (New York: Basic Books, 2010).
Islam, Science, and the Challenge of History (New Haven, CT, and London: Yale
University Press, 2010).
Orientalism (New York: Vintage Books, 1978).
European Modernity and the Arab Mediterranean. Toward a New Philology and a
Counter-Orientalism (Philadelphia, PA, and Oxford: University of Pennsylvania
Press, 2010).
Reconfiguring the World. Nature, God, and Human Understanding from the Middle
Ages to Early Modern Europe (Johns Hopkins Introductory Studies in the History of
Science. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2010).
see his book The Language of Life. DNA and the Revolution of Personalized Medicine.
New York (NY): HarperCollins, 2010.
New York: Free Press, 2006.
Cross-Cultural Exchanges in the Eastern Mediterranean, 1560-1660 (Baltimore:
Johns Hopkins University Press, 2010).
The Chinese Roots of Linear Algebra (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press,
2011).
Washington Academy of Sciences
13
Calendars: What Day Is It Anyway?
Sethanne Howard
US Naval Observatory, retired
Abstract
The history of calendars and timekeeping matters. We use time in everything we
do. Presented is a brief review of how humans keep time, and how they
developed the calendars we use today.
Introduction
What time is it please? Everyone I know has asked that question
sometime (look at that word sometime). How did we ever manage without
a clock or calendar?
Imagine what life would be like without ‘time.’ We can pretend,
for instance, that the Earth always presents the same side to the Sun. This
is not as impossible as it sounds. The Moon and Mercury already
approximate this. In our pretend situation, the Sun would remain
stationary in our sky. There would be no rising or setting; no sunsets to
inspire the poets. One side of the Earth would always be very, very hot
and light and the other side would always be very, very cold and dark.
With no ‘days’ to measure time’s passing, the only natural clock would be
that of aging. There would still be a year if one could see stars (only
possible on the dark side). There might be a lunar month of sorts. People
would still be bom, live, and die (in that order). These people would not
measure their ages in days. In fact they would have difficulty measuring at
all. There would be no way to count candles for a birthday cake. However,
perhaps as technology advanced, they might find that they could count
swings of a pendulum clock (e.g., 5436 swings for one lunch period).
Eegend has it that Galileo did something like this in 1581 CE. At
the age of 17 while in the Cathedral at Pisa, he timed the swinging of the
cathedral lamp with his own pulse. He noticed that the time for the lamp to
swing back and forth was always the same. He found that all church lamps
did the same thing. This observation became the basis for his work in
developing the pendulum clock.
Back in our pretend world, people might count, then, a swinging
pendulum or count their pulse rate (although this is not very constant) to
determine what we know as time. Life would not be much fun for our
Winter 2010
14
imaginary people without an 8:00 AM work time (it might also mean no
5:00 PM quitting time).
The Diurnal Cycle and Timekeeping
We are more fortunate than the people in this imaginary world.
Our Sun rises and sets to mark the days; the daily (diurnal) rotation of the
Earth has been and still is our primary timekeeper; we have seasons to
mark the years; and we still have our biological clock. All clocks (even
atomic clocks^) are only interpolating devices to measure out the time
elapsing between two consecutive transits of the Sun overhead (across the
local meridian astronomers call it). This clock can be as simple as a stick
in the ground (called a gnomon, Figure 1) or as complicated as a hydrogen
maser.
The gnomon will cast a shadow during daylight hours. The shadow
will be the shortest at midday. The gnomon was used quite early in our
history. It is pictured on Egyptian pyramid texts as far back as 1450 BCE.
The Chinese also used the gnomon, mentioned in the 2"^^ century Nine
Chapters on the Mathematical Art as being used much earlier by the Duke
of Zhou (1 1^*’ century BCE).
Figure I. A gnomon in Russia
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The Lunar Cycle and Timekeeping
Besides the daily rotation of the Earth, there is another natural
timekeeper - the lunar cycle. This cycle through the phases of the Moon
was very important to early cultures. Those specialists in the early tribes
who could mark out the days and seasons and predict the phases of the
Moon were not only the first astronomers, but also the wise ones of their
tribes. Religious ceremonies could not begin until the ‘scientists’ gave the
word. A group of wise ones, or priests/priestesses, is also called a synod
(from the Greek cruv6>(5og). Since it was the synod that announced each
New Moon, we call the time that it takes for the Moon to complete one
cycle of phases a synodic month.
The Solar Cycle and Timekeeping
We think that time was measured first in days and moons (the
word for month in many languages is derived from the word for moon)
long before it was measured in years. Unfortunately for the calendar
makers, people can live a long time (even more than 25,200 days or 840
months). Remembering the important numbers for everyone in the tribe
can get, at the very least, tedious. Eventually people had to develop a
calendar easier to count with than a strictly lunar or diurnal one. The
growth of agriculture helped with this development. The wise ones of the
tribe had to predict the seasonal changes so necessary for the planting and
harvesting of crops. This seasonal time is determined by the Earth’s
revolution about the Sun, and can be marked off by the Sun’s passage
from solstice to solstice or equinox to equinox.
The word solstice means ‘sun standing still:’ the rising Sun fell
between (interstitial) the stones that marked the calendar and stayed there,
i.e., the Sun appeared to rise at the same place on the horizon for a long
time. The equinox occurs when the length of daylight hours equals the
length of nighttime hours.
There are two solstices (winter and summer) and two equinoxes
(spring/vemal and fall/autumnal) per year. They divide the year into
quarters and so are called quarter days. Cross quarter days fall halfway
between the quarter days. February 2 (Groundhog’s Day, Imbolc^, or
Candlemas^) is an example of a cross quarter day. There are, therefore,
eight astronomical-based times that mark out the year. Many religions
(both ancient and modern) have important festivals that fall on these
particular days.
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16
Figure 2. Timeline of some astronomical archeological sites
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Astronomical Timekeeping and Archeology
This leads me to my next point. Developing and maintaining
calendars was the main duty of ancient astronomers. It kept astronomers
employed for millennia. The various pieces of the calendar - years,
months, weeks, days, seasons, equinoxes, solstices - all needed an
astronomer to confirm. Talk about job security!
There are archeological remnants around the world that show how
important astronomical timekeeping was. Figure 2 shows a timeline of
some astronomical timekeeping sites. The standing stones on the island of
Malta are a prime example. One of the most famous sets of standing
stones is Stonehenge. Then there is the chamber tomb at Newgrange
Ireland - a well preserved tomb that marks the winter solstice. It is a
World Heritage Site. Newgrange was built between 3100 and 2900 BCE.
The Sun shines down its chamberway reaching all the way to the end only
on the winter solstice.
The El Castillo pyramid at Chichen Itza, Mexico (Figure 3) has
four sides. With ninety-one steps on a side, El Castillo is a calendar of
sorts: 4 times 91 is 364, plus the one step on the top of the pyramid makes
a total of 365, as in 365 days of the year. On the equinoxes, the rising sun
creates a shadow serpent along the edge of the steps.
Figure 3. The El Castillo Pyramid
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The famous Anasazi sun dagger is in Chaco Canyon, New Mexico
(Figure 4). It was constructed of three large stone slabs wedged upright
with smaller stones. On the day of the summer solstice, a dagger of light
cast by the rising sun bisects a spiral carved into the rock behind the
stones. On the winter solstice, two daggers of light frame the spiral.
Figure 4. The sun dagger at Chaco Canyon the sunlight marks the yearly cycle by
moving back and forth across the spiral cut into the rock
Ancient Solar Eclipses
Predicting eclipses was also an important task for astronomers.
Astronomers can also compute when eclipses occurred in the past.
Historians then search the records for mention of those eclipses. Once a
mention is found, it can be used to date historical events and therefore
correlate the calendars from different cultures. Solar eclipses tended to be
recorded because they were often sources of fear. There is, however,
uncertainty about when the earliest recorded solar eclipse occurred. There
are at least three in contention for this.
The clay tablet found in 1948 among the ruins of the ancient city
of Ugarit in what is now Syria lists a solar eclipse on 5 March 1223 BCE.
'‘"On the day of the new moon, in the month of Hiyar, the Sun was put to
shame, and went down in the daytime, with Mars in attendance.
Then, of course, there is the Chinese eclipse of October 22, 2134
BCE. The date is not certain. Historians know the account was written
sometime within a period of about two hundred years. During that time
there were several total eclipses visible in China. The 2134 BCE eclipse is
simply the best guess. The ancient Chinese document Shu Ching records
that ‘the Sun and Moon did not meet harmoniously.’ It goes on to say that
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the two royal astronomers, Hsi and llo, had neglected their duties and
failed to predict the event (they were, apparently, drunk). When this
eclipse took place, the emperor was caught unprepared. Even though the
Sun returned, the angry ruler ordered the astronomers beheaded. Not so
good job security for them!
In 2000 archaeo-astronomer Paul Griffin found mention of a solar
eclipse at the multi cairn site at the Loughcrew Cairn L Megalithic
Monument in Ireland. It corresponds to a solar eclipse which occurred on
November 30, 3340 BCE.^
Because astronomers can compute the exact dates for past eclipses,
historians can use this information to adjust their timelines for the various
cultures. The earlier one can do this, the better for chronology of history.
Taxes and Timekeeping
Obviously people cared about the calendar for agricultural reasons
and celebrating communal activities, but they also relied on it for (aaugh!)
taxes. Indeed, the first Sumerian texts are mundane record-keeping logs -
lists of grain and animals received by the temples - i.e., tax documents.
The Sumerians did not coin money; therefore, they paid taxes in kind -
cows and sheep for poll taxes - merchant goods for tolls and duty fees.
This was not a minor tax. For example, during one year in Ebla (northern
Palestine - 3"^^ millennium), the temple received 36,892 sheep.
Naturally people tried to avoid burdensome taxes (it is an old
custom). There is a delightful letter (1900 BCE) from a trader to his
employee:
Irra’s son sent smuggled goods to Pushuken but his smuggled
goods were intercepted. The Palace then threw Pushuken in jail!
The guards are strong ... please don ’t smuggle anything else!
Hammurapi (1792 - 1750 BCE), worried about changes in the calendar
losing him income, wrote:
The year is out of place. Have the next month recorded under the
name of Ululu II. Payment of taxes at Babylon, instead of ending
on the 25'^ of Tasritu, shall end on the 25^^ of Ululu II.
Taxes in Egypt were also a fact of life. These included levies on
cattle, grain, and payment in various kinds of human labor. There were ad
hoc taxes for special purposes. There were even tax shelters - royal
charters of immunity from taxes - documented as early as the fourth
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dynasty in the Old Kingdom (2625 - 2500 BCE). The staff of the temples
- often themselves funded through tax revenues - received such immunity
from taxes, including immunity from compulsory labor.^
Days, Weeks, Years, and Timekeeping
Once people started marking time in days, months, and years, they
needed to subdivide them. Early cultures had no common division of the
day into equal time intervals, no weeks, and no universal origin for the
numbering of the years. Each culture defined its own origin of the day: the
Hebrews began the day at sunset; the Egyptians at sunrise; the
Babylonians at moonrise. The Babylonians also divided the day into two
sections (a day watch and a night watch), each section six ‘Babylonian
hours’ long - thus marking a twelve hour day. They probably measured
out their day watches with the gnomon. They also adopted the base 60
system of math from the earlier Sumerians. This is where we get 60
seconds to the minute, 60 minutes to the hour, the 12 hour clock, and the 4
week month.
The length of the week varied with the culture. The early Romans
th
used an 8 day cycle (until the 4 century emperor Theodosius put the 7
day week into the Roman calendar). The ancient Britons had a 5 day
week. The Greeks used the decade, dividing the month into three periods
of ten days each. The people in India and Mesopotamia all used a 7 day
week. Seven was common in the ancient world because there are seven
celestial objects to track: the Sun, the Moon, Mercuiyy Venus, Mars,
Jupiter, and Saturn. Each one had its day. Sunday was the day of the Sun;
Monday was the day of the Moon. In the western Mediterranean, as the
concept of the week spread, days were named after planets. These
planetary names are still apparent in Romance languages. Mardi (from the
planet Mars) is Tuesday in French. In the Germanic languages Roman
deities were replaced by Germanic deities. Friday was named after Freyja
or Freya, the goddess of love and fertility, and Tuesday after the god Tyr,
the Norse god of battle and courage. Thursday was named after Thor, the
Norse god of thunder. Variations of ‘Thor’ remain in use in many personal
names, female as well as male, in modern Scandinavian languages. Thor
was the son of Odinor Woden, the chief god of the Norse pantheon whose
name gave us Wednesday. Britain got its day names indirectly from the
same source through Anglo-Saxon.
The numbering of years was even more inconsistent. Years could
be numbered from the beginning of a king’s reign, or from the taking of a
census, or counted in generations of people, or Olympian Games.
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How do some of the various years correlate? This is not a trivial
problem. A few identifications are:
1 AUC
1 AUC
1 AUC
= 1 Anno Urbis Conditae, the year of the
founding of the city of Rome
= the 4^^ year of the Olympian
== the year 1263 Era of Abraham
The Year 1 Era of Abraham == 1 October 2016 BCE
The year 525 CE
The year 1 CE
The year 0
0
0
0
= the year 1288 AUC
= the year 754 AUC
= creation of the Earth = about 4.5 billion
years ago from scientific
measurements
= Saturday, 22 October, 9:00 AM,
4004 BCE (determined by Bishop
James Ussher)
= 3716 BCE Hebrew calendar
Add in the fact that each culture used its own date for New Year’s Day
and it becomes very complicated to compare dates across cultures. Years
could start in March, in January, in December, or whenever.
The calendar is a long term timekeeper. The word ‘calendar’
comes from the Eatin word calare which means to proclaim. Hence the
Roman Kalends of each month proclaimed the beginning of that month, a
remnant of the importance of each New Moon.
Modern Timekeeping
Today we perhaps pay less attention to short passages of time,
although we still mark annual celebrations and holidays with a calendar.
How did we get a calendar with variations that most of us can safely
ignore? We did it with astronomy.
There are three key astronomical events that mark modern timekeeping:
1. The day - the time from one sunrise to the next - one complete
rotation of the Earth. This is called a solar day.
2. The month - the time it takes the Moon to complete one full orbit
around the Earth. The synodic month, the mean interval between
conjunctions of the Moon and Sun, corresponds to one cycle of
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lunar phases - New Moon to New Moon. A synodic month is
about 29.53059 days.
3. The year - the time it takes the Earth to complete one full orbit
around the Sun. The tropical year is defined as the mean interval
between vernal equinoxes; it corresponds to the cycle of the
seasons. A tropical year is about 365.24219 days.^
This may sound simple enough; however, these time spans do not
easily divide into each other (reconcile with each other). There is always a
bit left over, so calendars have always been imperfect. You can count time
by days, but you will quickly reach very high numbers even during one
person’s lifetime. You can count time by months, except the lunar month
is not an even number of days. You can count time by years, except the
year is not an even number of days or months.
It is an unlucky accident that the Moon completes its cycle of
phases in about four weeks and that twelve lunar months are very close to
the length of the year. Early civilizations went to great lengths to devise
calendars that tried to reconcile the lunar year of twelve months to the
solar year of 365 days. Each culture found its way to deal with the
problem. The current world civil calendar focuses on the Earth’s orbit.
Many religious calendars use a combination of the Moon’s orbit and the
Earth’s orbit. Some stick strictly with the Moon’s orbit. Certain floating
religious dates {e.g., Easter, Passover) rely on rather complicated and
archaic astronomical calculations.
Three distinct types of calendars have resulted from this situation:
1. A solar calendar, e.g., the civil (Gregorian) calendar, maintains
o
synchrony with the tropical year. To do so, days are intercalated -
forming leap years to increase the average length of the calendar
year. This type of calendar depends on the Earth’s orbit.
2. A lunar calendar, e.g., the Islamic calendar, follows the lunar
phase cycle without regard for the tropical year. Thus the months
of the Islamic calendar systematically shift with respect to the
months of the Gregorian calendar. This type of calendar depends
only on the lunar phase cycle.
3. A lunisolar calendar, e.g., the Hebrew and Chinese calendars, has
a sequence of months based on the lunar phase cycle; but every
few years a whole month is intercalated to bring the calendar back
in phase with the tropical year. It combines a lunar with a solar
calendar.
Washington Academy of Sciences
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There are six principal calendars (developed from the above three)
in current use. These are the Gregorian (civil), Hebrew, Islamic, Indian,
Chinese, and Julian Calendars.
The civil calendar is used worldwide by international treaty. The
rules for the civil calendar are maintained by astronomers at various
official almanac offices. Many countries have such offices. In the US, the
Nautical Almanac Office is at the US Naval Observatory in Washington,
DC. They publish calendar information each year in The Astronomical
Almanac. The legal code of the United States does not specify an official
national calendar.
Since the tropical year is not an even number of days, the civil
calendar adopted common years (365 days) and leap years, where one year
of every four is a leap year of 366 days. Years are customarily counted
from the beginning of the Christian era, but the first year of this era is CE
1, and the immediately preceding year is 1 BCE. There is no year zero,
since zero was not used as a real number in the Mediterranean region
during the early centuries of our era.
Each of the three calendar types contributes to the development of
the current civil calendar. Eet us start with the solar calendar.
The Solar Calendar - History and Reforms
Solar calendars are sometimes confused with sundials. The sundial
(gnomon) gives the time of day. The solar calendar gives the time of year.
The story of the solar calendar starts with Egypt. The Sun is an
obvious calendar marker, especially in those areas with lots of sunlight
such as Egypt. They recognized a year with 365 days - a solar calendar -
marking the Earth’s orbit. They began each year when the Nile rose to its
height.
Historians think the Egyptians started their calendar on a day not
only when the Nile was at its height, but also when the star Sirius (or
Sopdet, translated into Greek as Sothis) rose at the same time as the Sun.^
They defined the year to be exactly twelve months of 30 days each plus
five extra holiday days tacked on at the end to give a total of 365 days.
However, the Egyptian year of 365 days, will, after an interval of four
years, begin about one day too early with respect to the solar year. As a
result, the Egyptian months retrogress through the seasons, making a
complete cycle in about 1460 years (1461 Egyptian years = 1460 solar
years). This is called a Sothic cycle. During a Sothic cycle, the 365-day
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year loses enough time that the start of the year once again coincides with
the heliacal rising of the star Sirius.
Historians use the Egyptian calendar
To see what fun historians have with this, start with Censorinus
(3*^^ century Roman writer), who recorded a heliacal rise (rose with the
Sun) of Sirius on the Egyptian New Year’s Day (Thoth 1) on July 20 of
139 CE. With this reference he could correlate the Egyptian calendar to
the Julian calendar. One also needs to know the place of observation, since
the latitude of the observation can change the day when the heliacal rising
of Sirius occurs, and an error in the location can then change the resulting
chronology by several decades. Given this one start date of the Sothic
cycle one can back up by Sothic cycles to 1321 BCE, 2781 BCE, and 4241
BCE to see what one finds.
There are three mentions of the heliacal rise of Sirius important for
Egyptian chronology. The first is the ivory tablet from the reign of Djer
(2"^ or 3'^'^ pharaoh of the First Dynasty) which supposedly indicates the
beginning of a Sothic cycle. If this does indicate the beginning of a Sothic
cycle, it must date to about 2781 BCE. However, this date is too late for
Djer’s reign (c. 3100 BCE) so many scholars believe that it indicates a
correlation between the rising of Sothis and the lunar calendar instead of
the solar calendar. The lunar calendar, however, was less important to the
Egyptians. The second observation is believed to date to the seventh year
of Senusret III (1878 - 1839 BCE) and is used to date the Twelfth Dynasty
to 1963 - 1786 BCE. The third observation was in the reign of Amenhotep
I and, assuming it was made in Thebes, dates his reign between 1525 and
1504 BCE. If made in Memphis, Heliopolis, or some other site instead, as
a minority of scholars still argue, the entire chronology of the Eighteenth
Dynasty needs to be expanded by some 20 years.
All of this is important because it not only sets a timeline for Egypt
but also links the Egyptian timeline to other cultures. A document which
dates to the Amama period (the famous Akhenaton) was found in the
ancient Hittite capital of Hattusa. The Hittite king received a letter from
the Egyptian queen. The letter reads:
My husband has died and I have no son. They say about you that
you have many sons. You might give me one of your sons to
become my husband. I would not wish to take one of my subjects as
a husband... I am afraid.
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Understandably, the king was wary and had an envoy investigate,
but by so doing, he missed his chance to bring Egypt into his empire. He
eventually did send one of his sons, but the prince died, perhaps murdered,
en route.
The identity of the queen who wrote the letter is uncertain.
Ankhesenamen, the third daughter of Nefertiti and Akhenaton, seems most
likely since there were no candidates for the throne on the death of her
husband, Tutankhamen. By using this letter to date this time in Egypt we
can then date the extensive Hittite King Eist (it stretches over one
thousand years). Tie this to the times of eclipses and we have a system for
dating early history.
The Romans Enter the Picture
People kept trying to improve the Egyptian solar calendar. For
example, in 238 BCE, Ptolemaios III Euergetes attempted to reform the
Egyptian calendar by inserting a leap day once every four years, a good
idea. His subjects refused to accept it (calendar change is ever unpopular).
Things stayed as they were until Rome became an ascendant power
and Egypt declined. The Romans, however, used a rather flaky lunisolar
calendar (Figure 5). Legend has Romulus setting the year to have ten
months, the New Year starting in March. This is why September has the
name of the seventh month. The Romans moved months around and
inserted and deleted months at various times without much consistency.
Through neglect and incompetence, the calendar was not properly
updated. By 50 BCE, it was some 80 days out of step with the seasons.
This played havoc with religious festivals, with legal contracts, etc.
Figure 5. A Roman calendar stone
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Two people took action to reform the messy Roman calendar:
Gains Julius Caesar (100 BCE - 44 BCE) and Caesar Augustus (63 BCE -
14 CE), the first emperor of the Roman Empire. Julius Caesar was elected
Pontifex Maximus in 63 BCE (and thus responsible for the calendar). He
made drastic changes. He abandoned the old lunisolar calendar and
adopted a purely solar calendar, following the technical advice of
Sosigenes, a Greek astronomer sent to him by Cleopatra of Egypt. He also
moved New Year’s Day from March 15 to January 1. The Romans
promptly dubbed this new Julian year the “year of confusion.” Julius
scattered the five year end holidays throughout the year creating seven 3 1
day months, four 30 day months, and one 28 day month (February was
unlucky). He then added one extra day every four years. This leap day was
to be added just before Day Six before the March Kalend. This Day Six
was to be repeated once every four years, creating a double sixth year. The
official term for leap year is bissextile year.
When one changes the beginning of the year from one month to
another it gets difficult to compare dates. It was no wonder that the
Romans dubbed the changed year the “year of confusion.” Astronomers,
by the way, avoid the whole thing by using the Julian Date, a running day
count. They count days in sequence from January 1, 4713 BCE Greenwich
noon. December 25, 2010 is Julian Date 2455555.500000. Why that
particular start date? Well, it is complicated, so I put it in an endnote.*'
The use of Julian Date to refer to the day-of-year is usually considered an
incorrect usage although it is widely used that way in the earth sciences,
computer programming, and the food industry.
1 9
To return to the Romans, after Caesar’s assassination in 44 BCE,
the Roman Senate honored his memory by renaming his birth-month
(Quintilis) lulius (July). Elnfortunately the prescribed intercalation was
actually performed once every three years instead of four so that, by 9
BCE, 12 intercalary days had been inserted, while Caesar’s formula had
called for only 9. The priests, who were inclusive counters*^ like all
Romans, had misunderstood Sosigenes’ prescription. To bring the
calendar back into step with the original plan, Caesar Augustus decreed in
8 BCE that all intercalations be omitted until 8 CE. The Roman Senate
honored Augustus by renaming for him the month of Sextilis (August).
The Julian calendar operated from 8 CE until the Gregorian reform
of 1582. This does not mean, however, that everyone used it. Many
Christians, for example, counted years from the Era of Abraham. The
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Romans counted years trom the beginning of the reign of the emperor
Diocletian (244-311 CE).
There were still calendar issues, especially with the date of Easter.
To predict the date of Easter, one has to calculate the date of future Full
Moons. People typically used any of four cycles to link the month to the
year: the Greek cycle (8 years = 99 months'"^); the Metonic cycle'^ (19
years = 235 months); the Roman cycle (84 years = 1039 months'^); and
the Victorius cyele (combines the Metonic cycle with the 28 year cycle for
days of the week = 532 years). None of these was perfect, although the
Metonic cycle eomes close. So it was time for standardization.
The Council o/Nicaea
In 325 CE the Council of Nicaea'^ established the Julian calendar
as the official Christian one.^^ The Council also set Easter to be the
Sunday that immediately follows the Full Moon (defined as the 14^^ day of
the lunar cycle), which occurs on or after the vernal equinox. Should that
Full Moon happen on a Sunday, Easter is the following Sunday. The
Julian ealendar eventually settled on 21 March as the date of the vernal
equinox.
Many churches used the Victorius cycle to compute Easter. Most
places accepted this; however, Britain and Ireland preferred to keep the
Roman cycle. About 200 years later at the Synod of Whitby (Yorkshire,
England, 664 CE) Britain and eventually Ireland decided to aecept the
system used by the church in Rome. Clearly, though, the system still
lacked consistency, and in stepped Denis the Little.
From the Council to Denis the Little
About the year 530 CE, the monk Dionysius Exiguus - “Denis the
Little” - from Scythia in southwest Russia constructed a table of Easter
dates for a period which he designated Anno Domini Jesu Christi 532-550.
Although Dionysius did not date any historical event, the implication was
that Anno Diocletiani 248 had to be 532 years after the birth of Jesus
Christ in 1 BCE. Scholars generally believe that Christ was bom some
years before CE 1 ; however, the historical evidence is too sketchy to allow
a definitive dating. Nevertheless the Anno Domini (AD) method caught on
and was in wide use by 800 CE. Of course, Dionysius did not use the
Council of Nicaea’s method. Fie apparently thought it incomect. He
adapted the Easter tables prepared in Alexandria, Egypt to the Victorius
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cycle. Ultimately the Dionysian tables and the Anno Domini system were
accepted throughout the western world.
One might think the issue was now resolved. Although the Julian
leap year rule is a simple one, it still does not produce a precise match to
the solar year. Over the centuries the date of the astronomical vernal
equinox slowly drifted away from the date of 21 March. It was time for
another reform.
Before we discuss the Gregorian reform, let us bring in the other
two types of calendars: lunisolar and lunar.
Lunisolar Calendars
The lunisolar calendar was an ingenious attempt to bring the
months (lunar) and the year (solar) into coincidence. One of the methods
used most often was to intercalate an extra month every few years. It
might be done randomly, but usually it was not. In the fifth century BCE a
Greek astronomer, Meton, set down specific rules for inserting these extra
months. If one picks a year that starts with a New Moon and lets the
months run in sequence, 235 lunar months (19 years) will pass before
another year comes that starts on a New Moon. In other words the Full
Moon appears on the same day in that year as it did 19 years earlier. This
19-year period defines the Metonic Cycle. The same pattern of lunar phase
and date in the year repeats every 19 years. A calendar maker needs to
follow only one pattern - change the number of months for a pre-chosen
pattern of years and repeat that pattern every 19 years. This number was so
important to ancient calendar makers that the Greeks inscribed this
number in golden letters on a temple in Athens - hence the term The
Golden Number, G. Today’s almanacs, including The Astronomical
Almanac, provide The Golden Number. As it turns out, however, the
Metonic Cycle is not quite exactly 19 years. It is off by about two hours
per cycle.
The Hebrew Calendar is a lunisolar calendar based on calculation
rather than observation. Its current form dates from about 359 CE. This
calendar is the official calendar for the State of Israel, although variations
on this calendar exist. The dates for Passover and Rosh Hashanah for this
calendar are computed from a complicated set of defined rules. Because of
the roughly 1 1 day difference between twelve lunar months and one solar
year, the length of the Flebrew calendar year varies in a repeating 19-year
Metonic cycle of 235 lunar months, with an intercalary lunar month added
according to defined rules every two or three years, for a total of 7 times
Washington Academy of Sciences
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per 19 years. That means there are twelve 12 month years and seven 13
month years for every 19 solar years.
The National Calendar of India is a formalized lunisolar calendar
in which leap years coincide with those of the civil calendar, fhe civil
calendar is used for administrative purposes. The Indian religious
calendars require precise calculations of the motions of the Sun and Moon.
Tabulations of the religious holidays are prepared by the India
Meteorological Department and published annually in The Indian
Astronomical Ephemeris. Many local variations exist.
The Chinese Calendar is a lunisolar calendar based on precise
calculations of the positions of the Sun and Moon. Since this calendar uses
the true positions of the Sun and Moon, its accuracy depends on the
accuracy of the astronomical theories and calculations.
Lunar Calendars
A lunar calendar depends solely on the phases of the Moon. There
is a lunar calendar in current use - The Islamic calendar. Months
correspond to the synodic lunar month. Thus the twelve months of the
Islamic Calendar systematically shift with respect to the months of the
Gregorian calendar. After three years, a strictly lunar calendar will have
diverged from the solar calendar by 33 days, or more than one lunation.
For religious purposes, Muslims begin each month with the first visibility
of the lunar crescent after conjunction. It is not based on astronomical
calculations but on actual sighting of the crescent moon by one or more
trustworthy men. Due to the difficulty in actually sighting the crescent
moon, the beginning of each month differs from one Muslim country to
another, and the information provided by the calendar in any country does
not extend beyond the current month. For civil purposes a tabulated
calendar that approximates the lunar phase cycle is often used.
The astronomical date and time of each New Moon can be
computed exactly; however, the time an observer first sees that young
Moon cannot be computed exactly. The time the Moon first becomes
visible after the New Moon depends on many factors. The various effects
are the geometry of the Sun, Moon, and natural horizon; the width and
surface brightness of the crescent; the absorption of the Moon’s light and
the scattering of the Sun’s light in the Earth’s atmosphere; and the
physiology of human vision. These things all change very rapidly. Her
Majesty’s Nautical Almanac Office (British) computes the time of New
Moon and provides information sheets that give the date of earliest
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visibility of the new crescent Moon for each lunar month for a selection of
cities in the UK and around the world.
The holy month of Ramadan occurs at different times in the
Gregorian year because the Islamic calendar is a strictly lunar one.
Similarly the A1 Hijra (the New Year) shifts throughout the Gregorian
year.
And now back to the reform that led to the Gregorian calendar.
The Gregorian Calendar
Named for Pope Gregory XIII, the Gregorian calendar is the
internationally accepted'^ civil calendar. The leap year rule for the
Gregorian calendar differs slightly from one for the Julian calendar. The
Gregorian leap year rule is: Every year that is exactly divisible by four is a
leap year, except for years that are exactly divisible by 100; the centurial
years that are exactly divisible by 400 are still leap years. For example, the
year 1900 is not a leap year; the year 2000 is a leap year.
Why was it put in place? If a leap day is added every fourth year,
then the average length of the calendar year is 365.25 days. This is the
basis of the Julian calendar; the Julian year is longer than the tropical year
by about 0.0078 days. Over a century this difference accumulates to a little
over three quarters of a day. So from the time of Julius Caesar to the
sixteenth century the beginning of Spring (the vernal equinox) had slipped
from March 23 to March 11. This slippage of the vernal equinox messed
with the calculation of the official date for Easter, hence the need for
reform. In addition, different countries still used their own set of tables to
set religious dates.
When Pope Gregory XIII instituted the Gregorian calendar in
1582, the calendar was shifted to make the vernal equinox fall on March
21, and a new system of leap days was introduced. The Pope issued a
Papal Bull which dropped the ten days between October 4 and October 15.
October 5 became October 15. The cycle of the days of the week did not
change.
Instead of intercalating a leap day every fourth year, 97 leap days
would be introduced every 400 years. Thus, the average Gregorian
calendar year is 365.2425 days in length. This agrees to within a half a
minute of the length of the tropical year. It will take about 3300 years
before the Gregorian calendar is as much as one day out of step with the
seasons. On time scales of thousands of years, the Gregorian calendar falls
Washington Academy of Sciences
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behind the seasons because the slowing down of the Earth’s rotation
makes each day slightly longer over time while the year maintains a more
uniform duration.
The intent of the reform was to return to the rules that the Council
of Nicaea set for Easter. This means one now has to use an arcane and
messy set of tables and calculations to compute the date of Easter. Those
national almanac offices do this for their respective countries.
Of course Pope Gregory was a Roman Catholic. His rational for
the change was to correct the date of Easter. The Protestant countries did
not want to adopt a Catholic change to the calendar, so they kept using the
Julian calendar. This meant that Paris kept one time, Berlin another, and
London yet another. Germany and the Netherlands finally agreed to adopt
the Gregorian calendar in 1698; Russia only accepted it after the
revolution of 1918, and Greece waited until 1923 to follow suit. Currently
many Orthodox churches still follow the Julian calendar, which now lags
13 days behind the Gregorian. This is why Orthodox Easter only
occasionally coincides with Gregorian Easter.
It eventually became prudent for everyone to make the calendar
change when the speed and ease of travel changed. In the old days a
traveler taking days or weeks to complete a journey could easily (or not)
adapt to the changing times in different places. Different cities used
different New Year’s Days. For instance, if one left Venice on its March 1,
1245 CE, one could travel to Florence and arrive in 1244 CE, and on to
Pisa by 1246 CE, to Provence in 1245 CE, and finally arrive in France by
April 16, 1244 CE. This made fulfilling commercial contracts a bit
difficult. Once speedy travel, especially rail travel, was available, such
unwieldy time changes were a burden. Economics drove the Protestant
countries to adopt the Gregorian calendar.
Britain adopted the Gregorian calendar via the British Calendar
Act of 1751, which declared the day after Wednesday the second of
September 1752 to be Thursday the fourteenth of September 1751. The
Earl of Chesterfield, the Earl of Macclesfield,, and James Bradley (the
astronomer royal) in a short three months pushed a Bill through
Parliament. Parliament said that the Julian calendar “attended with divers
inconveniences, not only as it differs from the usage of neighbouring
nations, but also from the legal method of computation in Scotland, and
from the common usage throughout the whole kingdom, and thereby
frequent mistakes are occasioned in the dates of deeds and other writings,
and disputes arise therefrom.”
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That September became the shortest month in history (19 days
long). Losing 1 1 days in a month might not sound so important; however,
seeing a good opportunity, landlords charged full rent for the missing 1 1
days. Legend has it that mobs in Boston rioted saying ‘give us back our 1 1
days.’
Ultimately the world came to use the Gregorian calendar for all
civil uses. One might think that the calendar issue is now fixed and people
are content.
Are There Other Calendars?
Since the time of Gregory XIII, many other proposals for calendar
reform have been made. In the 1840s, philosopher Auguste Comte
s^SS^sted that the 365 day of each year be a holiday not assigned a day
of the week. The generic “Year Day” would allow January 1 to fall on a
Sunday every year. This calendar was not adopted.
French Revolutionary Calendar
The French Revolutionary Convention attempted to introduce a
new calendar. On October 5, 1793, they decreed that the year (starting on
September 22, 1792 — the autumnal equinox, and the day after the
proclamation of the new republic) would be divided into 12 months of 30
days, named after corresponding seasonal phenomena {e.g., seed, blossom,
harvest). The remaining five days of the year, called sans-culottides^ were
feast days. In leap years, the extra day. Revolution Day, was to be added
to the end of the year. The Revolutionary calendar had no week; each
month was divided into three decades, with every tenth day to be a day of
rest. This calendar, however, perished with the Republic.
Mayan Calendar
The ancient Mayan calendar is of interest to some people who
mistakenly believe it foretells the end of the world in 2012. The Mayan
calendar is called the Tzolk’in. The Tzolk’in is combined with a 365-day
calendar (known as the HaaF), to form a cycle lasting 52 Haab’s called
the Calendar Round.
A different calendar was used to track longer periods of time, and
for the inscription of calendar dates. This is the Long Count. It is a count
of days since a mythological starting-point. According to the correlation
between the Long Count and Western calendars accepted by the great
majority of Maya researchers, this starting-point is equivalent to August
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11, 3114 BCE in the proleptic Gregorian calendar or 6 September in the
Julian calendar.
The Maya name for a day was k’in. Twenty k’ins are known as a
winal or iiinal. Eighteen winals make one tun. Twenty tuns are known as a
k’atun. Twenty k’atuns make a b’ak’tun. This made for a remarkably
precise calendar.
Misinterpretation of the Long Count calendar is the basis for an
incorrect belief that a cataclysm will take place on December 21, 2012.
Rather, December 21, 2012 is simply the first day of the 14^^ b’ak’tun, and
is to be an occasion for a huge celebration. The portrayal of this date as a
doomsday event is complete fabrication. There is zero evidence for a
cataclysmic event. There are no solar system alignments of any
consequence. There are no galactic alignments of any consequence.
These various Mayan calendar cycles, as well as other natural
cycles (weather, birth, and death), influenced the Mayan societies in much
the same way as natural cycles influenced other cultures.
Right now there are no competing versions to the Gregorian
calendar. Thus the world uses the Gregorian calendar for civil use, and
relies on astronomers to compute the dates for floating religious festivals
like Easter and Passover. Elowever, there is, perhaps, one remaining
question - the millennium.
Between You and Me and the Millennium
Just when was the millennium? It does not really matter; however,
since you asked. Y ears of the Gregorian calendar are counted from CE 1 .
There was no zero. Thus, the 1st century was the years CE 1 through CE
100. The second century began with CE 101 and continued through CE
200. By extrapolation we find that the 20^*^ century was the years CE 1901
- 2000. Therefore, the 2C‘ century began with 1 January 2001 and will
continue through 31 December 2100.
Similarly, the millennium comprised the years CE 1 - 1000.
The 2^^ millennium comprises the years CE 1001 - 2000. The 3"^^
millennium began with CE 2001 and will continue through CE 3000.
Since most people (except a few astronomers) thought the
millennium occurred at midnight 31 December 1999, astronomers,
knowing a good thing, decided to hold the official party on both dates. The
US Naval Observatory held the millennium party on 31 December 1999
and again on 3 1 December 2000. A good time was had by all.
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The passage of time continues to fascinate us. Yearly events are
more than occasions for celebrations; they indicate a continuous change,
always forward, never backward. Time marches on; we cannot go back.
Now that the calendar is set, have a happy birthday each year,
enjoy the changes of the seasons, and do not worry about imaginary
planetary alignments that signal nothing. The year 2012 will be an
occasion to celebrate renewal. Relax in the assumption that the
astronomers have the calendar well in hand.
Counting ticks on an atomic clock does not tell us the time. We must correlate it to the
Earth s rotation. The National Institute of Standards and Technology tells us how
long the second is. The system of clocks at the US Naval Observatory tells us when
that second occurs.
2
A pagan holiday originating in Ireland
The date of the presentation of Jesus at the Temple
J T. de Jong & W. H. van Soldt Nature 338, 238 - 240 (16 March 1989)
http://www.astronomy.ca/3340eclipse/
http://www.upenn.edu/almanac/v48/n28/AncientTaxes.html
This number is known precisely, but it is not constant. It must be re-computed for each
year.
This means to insert into the calendar
^ Sirius is the brightest star in the northern hemisphere sky. Called the Dog Star by the
ancient Egyptians, it embodied Isis, wife of Osiris (the constellation of Orion).
http://www.hittites.info/
“ The start date for counting Julian Days was set by Joseph Scaliger (1583) to be the
product of the three cycles of the Sun (28 years). Moon (19 years), and Indiction.
Indiction, well, that cycle is not astronomical, but is set by certain judicial acts by the
Greek/Roman emperors. It is a 15 year cycle. So it all is very messy. The cycles all
coincided at the date January 1, 4713 BCE. See the Encyclopedia Britannica, 1 1*
edition.
On the ides of March (March 15)
1 3
If Sunday is day 1 then 8 days from Sunday is the next Sunday in inclusive counting.
A period of 8 years after which the lunar phase occurs on the same day of the year plus
one or two days - used by many ancient Greeks to set dates.
See the discussion on lunisolar calendars.
Yet another table for computing the date of Easter
A council of Christian bishops
The Anno Domini system of counting the years did not begin until 6*'’ century.
By international treaties
20
The proleptic Gregorian calendar is produced by using it for times before it was
introduced in 1582.
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Facilitating Student Autonomy in Project-Based Learning
to Foster Interest and Resilience in STEM Education and
STEM Careers
James A. (Jim) Egenrieder
Virginia Tech, National Capital Region
Abstract
Many students enjoy science in elementary school and middle school, until they
experience a setback or disappointment in their performance in secondary
STEM courses or science fairs. Educators and others, in both formal and
informal settings, can foster students’ continued interest and resiliency in STEM
education subjects, majors and careers through student-driven project-based
learning. Educators and mentors of students need to be aware of key elements of
project-based learning, of realigned roles of students and teachers, and the
advantages and distinctions of scientific and engineering design processes. To
maximize the benefits of student autonomy in project-based learning, educators
and others should also consider strategies and infrastructures that facilitate
productive constructivist review and reflection, differentiated learning,
confidence in presentation and publication skills, participation in science and
engineering competitions, group work, and motivation for independent, lifelong
learning. Collaboration among teachers in facilitating student projects can
deepen student understanding and expand the context and relevance of curricula.
Introduction
As THE CONCERN for insufficient numbers of qualified candidates for
STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) careers
grows, science educators, STEM professionals, counselors, parents,
coaches, and others can facilitate students’ interest and explorations,
creativity, innovation, and entrepreneurship through student-driven
project-based learning. This investment in students’ autonomy fosters
resilience, or the ability to overcome or recover from setbacks or
disappointments, in students’ pursuit of STEM subjects and STEM
careers.
Traditional approaches to teaching and learning can suppress and
smother interest and creativity among many students who do not have
resilience or support after early failures or disappointing experiences in
STEM subjects. Accordingly, some students dismiss themselves from
STEM subjects, majors, and careers based on experienees, and sometimes
only a single experience, even before they have fully transitioned from
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pre-adolescent, concrete-operational thought to the capacity for abstract
thinking that allows them to fully appreciate these subject areas. Regular
opportunities for authentic student-led inquiry provide opportunities to
renew or expand interest in technical explorations and distinctions that
foster the resilience, creativity, and curiosity necessary for successful
STEM careers, particularly as young people begin to define and refine
their identity and self-perceptions. This resilience remains important
through high school, college “weed-ouf’ courses, and during job searches
or in considering graduate programs, when so many prospective scientists
and engineers switch to other academic and career paths.
Key Elements of Project-Based Learning
Project-based learning has been part of the school curriculum for
nearly a century, and typically involves students in project design,
problem-solving investigations, or other experiences that give students
extended periods of time to work alone, or in teams, without extensive
involvement of the teacher. The resulting products or presentations can be
the primary means by which teachers assess students’ understanding.
Increasingly, project-based learning models include characteristics such as
authentic content and assessment, a reduced or less didactic role for the
teacher, more cooperative learning, reflective self-assessment,
constructivism, developing adult communication skills, community
involvement, and cognitive use of technology-based tools (Saveiy and
Duffy, 1995). Project-based learning is also based on the constructivist
principles of collaboration, personal autonomy, mentoring from older
generations, reflection, active engagement in community needs, and
personal or professional relevance. In his summary of research in project-
based learning, John Thomas (2000) highlights five important criteria of
project-based learning:
1. Project-based learning projects are central, not peripheral to the
curriculum;
2. Project-based learning projects are focused on questions or
problems that drive students to encounter and struggle with the
central concepts and principles of a discipline;
3. Projects involve students in a constructivist investigation;
4. Projects are student-driven to some significant degree; and
5. Projects are realistic, not school-like.
Project-based learning is often distinguished from the formal, didactic,
lecture settings of science classrooms, and also the controlled experiments
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in laboratory settings. However, it would be a mistake to believe that
project-based learning should completely replace the efficiency and
effectiveness of lectures and discussion in secondary science or
engineering classrooms, or the need for understanding of fundamental
laboratory procedures. Instead, once students have been trained in the
foundations of important concepts, and laboratory techniques and
procedures, they can be challenged to apply their newly acquired
understandings and skills to new or more complex problems or questions.
Student-led Inquiry and the Nature of Science
The key elements of project-based learning are consistent with the
National Science Education Standards (NSES), which promote an
emphasis on guiding students in active and extended inquiry and a focus
on student understanding through the use of knowledge, skills, and inquiry
processes. The NSES also stress the importance of teachers’ recognition of
and response to students’ individual interests, strengths, experiences, and
needs (National Research Council, 1996).
Similarly, The American Association for the Advancement of
Science promotes inquiry through investigation as the tool for scientific
literacy in its Project 2061: Benchmarks for Scientific Eiteracy (2009).
The Benchmarks for inquiry explicitly address the problems with common
laboratory experiments designed by teachers with prescribed procedures
that reflect the rigid sequence of steps of a single scientific method. These
benchmarks instead promote imagination and inventiveness, collaboration,
time for revisions or repetition, and sharing results for criticism.
Specifically addressing student initiative and autonomy, the Benchmarks
for Inquiry state the following:
[Students] should frame the question, design the approach,
estimate the time and costs involved, calibrate the instruments,
conduct trial runs, write a report, and finally, respond to criticism.
Such investigations, whether individual or group, might take weeks
or months to conduct. They might happen in and out of school time
and be broken up by periods when, for technical reasons, work
cannot go forward. But the total time invested will probably be no
more than the sum of all those weekly one-period labs that
contribute little to student understanding of scientific inquiry.
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Reinforcing Scientific Methods and Design Processes
As students choose and use scientific methods or design processes
to explore their own questions or research problems, they expand their
understanding of science and engineering, the importance of recognizing
confounding variables, and distinguishing correlation from causation.
Most approaches to science and engineering begin with identifying a
question or problem. From there, scientific methods and design processes
follow similar paths to different outcomes (Figure 1). The scientist will
develop a hypothesis that leads to a methodology for testing the influence
or relationship of a variable or variables on a specific outcome.
Alternatively, engineers identify criteria or constraints for solving their
problem, and then follow a design-test-redesign process to evaluate a
specific model or prototype that may serve as a solution.
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In both science and engineering and certainly in science education
and engineering education, reporting or sharing findings is an important
step. Professionals rely on journal publications, poster sessions, and
presentations to report and share, and these are mimicked in science and
engineering fairs. Formal educators (teachers) and informal educators
(parents, camp counselors, mentors, neighbors, and others) might consider
other tools for sharing, as discussed later.
Teachers can reinforce skills necessary for larger research and
design projects with projects of shorter duration throughout the year.
These shorter projects of one to two weeks can strengthen skills in
modeling and simulation, literature reviews, or developing a rationale for a
larger study based on an identified community need.
Strategies for Supporting Students’ Selection of Research Problems or
Questions
Whether project-based learning is integrated throughout the
curricula, or only quarterly or each semester, teachers must facilitate the
autonomy of students in selecting, developing, and exploring their ideas.
As the teacher transfers leadership to the students, the learning
environment becomes more authentic, and the relevance and connections
of the coursework to the students’ interests and experiences is obvious.
However, this creates the biggest challenges, particularly in standards-
based environments where learning is measured by end-of course exams,
and where teachers are accountable for student results. The teacher or
mentor must continuously prompt students to tie their explorations and
discoveries to the curricula, and to identify possible generalizations.
In selecting a topic, a teacher might provide some constraints for
students to identify a specific topic aligned within the pace of their
ongoing curriculum. For example, units within a biology course well
suited for projects include biochemistry, metabolism, genetics, history of
life or evolution, phytogeny and taxonomy, anatomy and physiology, and
ecology. Within a unit, the teacher might provide a suggested approach,
such as “Develop a model for demonstrating ,” or “Demonstrate a
method for measuring ” or “Identify and evaluate strategies for
preventing .” A teacher could provide a short timeline (two days or
a weekend) for students to pick their topic, perhaps using a web-based
form or a traditional sign-up sheet for others to see. After that, a teacher
might provide a list of “interesting topics” to help those who did not yet
identify their own. If these topics are authentic interests of the teacher.
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they create yet another bridge between the student and the teacher and
curricula, and often students who already selected a topic may ask to
switch. After another short period (perhaps only one day), the teacher can
ask any remaining undecided students to pick from a list of relevant
topics.
This is an important time for the teacher to transition into the role
of facilitator. Throughout the selection period, the teacher can help to
narrow or refine topics, suggest background research, community
resources or professional mentors, or other tools, tips, or templates.
Identifying a research question within a topic is an important skill for all
students, and yet another opportunity for individualizing a project.
Teachers must also remain flexible, allowing for minor changes,
major redirections or reorientations, or wholesale changes to topics or
team participation, and to keep the students’ interest and path to inquiry as
a priority. Students use these moments of autonomy to define their
identity, establish their uniqueness, and connect with like-minded others.
Accordingly, many see these projects as a foundation or official trial or
affirmation of a career interest. It is important for teachers as facilitators to
avoid saying “no” or to give any hint of negativity, except when there is a
concern for safety or violation of privacy {e.g. students desiring to study
teen drug use or sexuality among their peers). Otherwise, flexibility and
facilitation should be the teacher’s mantra, and those who prioritize
student autonomy often report that the scope of topics and products is
often well beyond what they would have prescribed, or even imagined.
Strategies for Differentiation
Individualizing instruction and learning provides opportunities for
more students to excel, and these successful experiences increase the
possibility that connections to technical disciplines will become part of a
student’s personal and professional identity and lifelong learning.
Teachers and others can provide differentiation in project-based learning
through groupwork, tiered assignments, scaffolding, choice, and
opportunities for expansion from core ideas and enduring understandings
(Schlemmer and Schlemmer, 2008). Maximizing choice and
interdisciplinary or cross-disciplinary connections requires additional
mentoring, but provides student-derived context and relevance. Schedules,
planning templates, intermediate products, and evaluation rubrics provide
students with tools for formative self-assessment and checkpoints for
communicating with teachers and mentors. Teachers might schedule
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regular one-minute interviews, where students know they’ll have the
teaeher’s undivided attention to share concerns or solicit advice.
Group Work
Some teachers avoid group work or group projects because of the
difficulty in measuring individual contributions to the groups’ processes or
outcomes. Recognizing that project-based learning is multi-faceted, multi-
disciplinary, and engages individuals at multiple levels of consciousness,
the teacher can rely on group dynamics, peer coaching and mentoring, and
even peer evaluation to supplant the need for artificial or unnecessary
accountability structures. Instinctive group leaders can benefit greatly,
even when “carrying” partners, through the deeper understanding they’ll
derive from teaching or guiding their peers. A participant that might be
considered a cipher may not only be learning from the energy and
enthusiasm of more active peers, but may also be playing a role in
validating the team’s direction when seemingly more-engaged peers
present their rationale for routine decisions. Lab tables in many science
classrooms are set to provide seating for four, but the roles and
contributions of individual participants are enhanced in smaller groups,
and many practitioners of project-based learning will suggest teams of
one, two, or maybe three. For groups of three or four, teachers can suggest
that the products of larger groups should reflect the number of group
members, and can thereby comfortably assign an overall grade to the
groups’ products rather than individual grades to each participant.
Alternatively, teachers can guide larger groups in dividing projects
into distinct but complementary roles. In an example from an AP Biology
class, a group of three students designed a system for long-term
monitoring and analysis of a standard blood chemistry panel and complete
blood count (CBC). They shared the work of researching and explaining
each blood test, but divided the rest of the work. One student determined
the best way to group the more than 30 tests and identified additional
blood tests that may be monitored, one determined which units were used
for each test and the high and low ranges of “normal”, and the third
student created and formatted the spreadsheet for data collection and the
creation of a template, which is now available online for others.
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Monitoring and Maintaining Students’ Momentum
All students, whether in middle school or graduate school, benefit
from supportive monitoring. Timelines with interim products reduce the
impacts of normal procrastination and also provide teachers with
opportunities to help guide research, overcome obstacles, or address
troubles in group dynamics. Online collaboration tools allow for teachers
to monitor progress or provide comments or links to resources informally,
and teachers can do this at any hour of the day. Teachers who witness the
project’s development also see how the final products are developed,
reducing the occasion for accidental or desperate plagiarism. Online
monitoring can also function as formative assessment that reduces the time
required for reviewing and commenting on final products.
Sharing the Products of Students’ Projects
In traditional learning environments, the products of student work
have a very small audience: the teacher. And with as many as 120 or more
papers, lab reports, or other work products to review, a typical teacher
would need 20 hours or more per assignment, even if budgeting only 10
minutes per student for review and comments. However, if a teacher
requires that the products of projects should have utility beyond the
student, and requires sharing or even publication, there are many benefits.
Most importantly sharing and peer review is consistent with professional
scientific and engineering practices, and if done regularly in classroom
environments, sharing or presenting these products becomes more
comfortable and adds rigor authentically.
Knowing there will be a wider audience, students are likely to be
more creative in choosing a topic or methodology, and also more likely to
be more rigorous in their own self-evaluation. Second, other students can
benefit from their work, whether experienced through a classroom
presentation or as a newly discovered online resource. Third, if published
online, students can expand or refine their products with new learning, and
benefit from comments provided by others. Student volunteers can learn
from categorizing or cataloguing their peers’ work for publication.
If products are presented in a classroom setting, the teacher can
provide praise and constructive criticism that may benefit all students’
understanding, while significantly reducing the time necessary for grading
the product later. Classroom presentations limited to just three minutes can
provide an abstract or overview that is enough to capture the interest of
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engaged listeners, and short enough to build confidence in students’
presentation skills without using precious classroom time.
Teachers can protect student privacy by publishing student work
on a protected intranet, or publishing more publicly without last names, or
without any names at all. Using increasingly available and powerful online
collaboration tools, teachers can also offer suggestions for refinements,
establishing a body of work that all can be proud of
Revisiting and Revising Projects
Traditional curricula are typically progressively linear; a concept
or topic is introduced and explored, perhaps with assignments and
formative assessments (quizzes) leading to a summative assessment (test),
and then on to the next concept. Projects, particularly those with products
made available to others, allow for opportunities, and motivation to revisit
past work and critique it, revise it, enhance it, or replace it. Redesign is an
important part of design processes and can also be part of scientific
processes in the classroom lab (Figure 1).
Science and Engineering Fairs and Festivals
Science and engineering fairs and festivals remain an important
part of introducing, developing, and affirming young scientists.
Unfortunately, the necessary and burdensome paperwork, and the
unsatisfying outcomes for those who are not winners may discourage or
dissuade more potential young scientists than are validated. However,
science fair administrators partnering with non-profit organizations, trade
groups, or community associations can greatly expand the number and
scope of available honors awarded. Community participation has many
additional benefits that further engage students, teachers, the groups’
representatives, and parents in the curricula (Egenrieder, 2007).
Science and engineering fair judges often have little or no
connection to secondary education, and should be trained to offer
encouragement and coaching to students while reviewing their posters and
demonstrations. Judges can be encouraged to bring business cards to help
teachers and students expand their work or additional resources or
opportunities. Some administrators of fairs and festivals for younger
students {i.e., middle school) also provide options for students to be
judged by teachers only, and students thereby expect a more constructive,
formative experience.
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In 2011, Google launched www.google.com/sciencefair, a new,
online approach to science fairs focusing on creativity and innovation, and
modem approaches to sharing.
Relevance and Rigor
When project-based learning is student-driven, relevance is an
inherent part of the learning experience. As the teacher functions in the
less traditional facilitator and learner roles, they create a new dimension in
the teacher-student relationship. The student perceives the teacher as an
adult making an investment in the student’s unique interests or
explorations, and this new dimension in peer relationships leads to a
change in the student’s perceptions of teachers and themselves. This is
tme, of course, with any mentor or facilitator, including parents. Teachers
(and science fair judges) are often concerned about parents’ roles in
projects, and it may be important for teachers to help parents recognize
that excess involvement may lead students to believe they would have
been unsuccessful without a parent’s involvement. We must use our
relationships with students to help them develop their own rigor in the
context of their own interests.
Project Management with Technology
Online tools for communication, collaboration, publishing,
scheduling, monitoring or tracking, and archiving significantly enhance
the role of a project-based learning teacher or mentor (Boss and Krauss,
2007). Communications can be synchronous or asynchronous, and teams
and their mentors can rely upon online document and resource storage
independent of their locations (cloud computing) that facilitate
collaboration. In addition to providing easy, paperless, categorized, and
searchable access to helpful resources, teachers can also use technology
for formal and informal assessments, collecting and organizing student
products, and inexpensive (free) publishing. Blogs, wikis, and other
collaborative tools allow controlled and secure collaborations among
teachers in sharing and reviewing curriculum objectives, student progress
and student projects; and this cooperation among teachers also expands the
context of students’ learning experiences.
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Summary
Throughout their academic careers, students assess and reassess
their aptitude for specific subjects, and their options for post-secondary
studies and careers. Adults can foster students’ continued interest and
resiliency through project-based learning by promoting student autonomy,
alignments with scientific and engineering design processes, and strategies
for group work, reflection, effective presentations and publications, and
the effective use of technology. As the resilient students refine their
interests and expand their confidence as scientists and engineers, they are
tree to recognize and explore their own ideas, innovations and creative
solutions to real problems. Meanwhile, they are deepening their
understanding of their teachers’ curricula and developing a context for
lifelong learning. And when they encounter an obstacle, setback, or
disappointment, they will be more likely to regroup, refocus, and renew
their approach rather than switch majors or careers.
References
American Association for the Advancement of Science (2009). Project 2061 :
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Washington Academy of Sciences
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WASHINGTON ACADEMY OF SCIENCE
MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY 2010
M=Member; F=Fellow; LF=Life Fellow; LM=Life Member; EM=Emeritus
Member; EF=Emeritus Fellow
ABDULNUR, SUHEIL F. (Dr.) 5715 Glenwood Road, Bethesda MD 20817 (F)
ABEL, DAVID (Dr.) 1 13 Hedgewood Drive, Greenbelt MD 20770-1610 (EM)
ABOU-KHEIR, WASSIM (Dr.) Cell and Cancer Biology Br., NIH, 37 Convent Dr. RM
1066, Bethesda MD 20892 (M)
AMINI, MASSOUD (Dr.) Department of Mathematics, Tarbiat Modares University,
Tehran 14115-175, Iran (M)
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FREHILL, LISA (Dr.) 1239 Vermont Ave. NW #204, Washington DC 20005 (M)
GAUNAURD, GUILLERMO C. (Dr.) 4807 Macon Road, Rockville MD 20852-2348
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GEBBIE, KATHARINE B. (Dr.) Physics Laboratory, National Institute of Standards and
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GIBBONS, JOHN H. (Dr.) Resource Strategies, P.O. Box 379, The Plains VA 20198
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GLUCKMAN, ALBERT G. (Mr.) Institute for Physical Science and Technology,
University of Maryland, College Park MD 20742 (EF)
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GOULD, RICHARD G. Telecommunications Systems, 3643 Upton Street, NW,
Washington DC 20008 (F)
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GRAY, JOHN E. (Mr.) PO Box 489, Dahlgren VA 22448-0489 (M)
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Washington, DC 20006 (F)
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GUTERMUTH, PAUL-GEORG (Dr.) IM Wingert 28, 53604 Bad Honnef, Germany
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KATZ, ROBERT (Dr.) 16770 Sioux lane, Gaitherburg MD 20878-2045 (F)
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SHROPSHIRE, JR, W. (Dr.) 4816 Flower Valley Drive, Rockville MD 20853-1627
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SHUGART, ERIKA (Dr.) Marian Koshland Science Museum, 500 5th Street NW,
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SMITH, REGINALD C. (Mr.) 773 1 Tauxemont Road, Alexandria VA 22308 (M)
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