Volume 99

Number 1

Spring 2013

Journal of the

WASHINGTON

ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

MC2

LIBRARY

JUL 2 4 2013

HARVARD

UNIVERSITY

Board of Discipline Editors ii

Editor’s Comments S. Rood iii

Erratum A. G. G/uckman v

Human Systems Integration G. P. Kreuger 1

Commercial Truck Driver Performance J. F. Morgan, eta! 25

Springs of Washington, D.C. J. M. Sharp 39

Annual Meeting: Outgoing President’s Remarks J. Cole 59

Annual Meeting: Incoming President’s Remarks J. Egenrieder. 60

Annual Meeting: Board of Managers Photo 62

Membership Application 63

Instructions to Authors 64

Affiliated Institutions 65

Affiliated Societies and Delegates 66

ISSN 0043-0439

Issued Quarterly at Washington DC

Washington Academy of Sciences

Founded in 1898

Board of Managers

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President

James Egenrieder

President Elect

Terrell Erickson

Treasurer

Ronald Hietala

Secretary

Jeff Plescia

Vice President, Administration

Kathy Arle

Vice President, Membership

Sethanne Howard

Vice President, Junior Academy

Dick Davies

Vice President, Affiliated Societies

Richard Hill

Members at Large

Paul Arveson

Michael Cohen

Frank Haig, S.J.

Mark Holland

Neal Schmeidler

Catherine With

Past President Jim Cole

Affiliated Society Delegates

Shown on back cover

The Journal of the Washington Academy of

Sciences

The Journal \s the official organ of the Academy.

It publishes articles on science policy, the history

of science, critical reviews, original science

research, proceedings of scholarly meetings of

its Affiliated Societies, and other items of interest

to its members. It is published quarterly. The last

issue of the year contains a directory of the

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Members, fellows, and life members in good

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Journal of the

WASHINGTON

ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Volume 99 Number 1 Spring 2013

Contents

Board of Discipline Editors ii

Editor’s Comments S. Rood iii

Erratum in the Winter 2012, Vol. 98, Issue 4 A. G. Gluckman v

Articles

Human Systems Integration (HSI): Psychological Influences in Design

Produce Exceptional Operator Performance G. P. Krueger 1

Commercial Truck Driver Performance in Emergency Maneuvers and

Extreme Roadway Conditions Presented in a Driving Simulator J. F. Morgan,

S. A. Tidwell, M. Blanco, A. Medina-Flinstch, and R. J. Hanowski 25

Springs of Washington, D.C.: A Tale of Urbanization J. M. Sharp 39

Annual Meeting

Outgoing President’s Remarks J. Cole 59

Incoming President’s Remarks J. Egenrieder 60

2013 Officers and Board of Managers Photo 62

Membership Application 63

Instructions to Authors 64

Affiliated Institutions 65

Affiliated Societies and Delegates 66

ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington DC

Spring 2013

11

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences

Editor Sally A. Rood, PhD sallv.rood@cox.net

Assoc. Editor Sethanne Howard, PhD sethanneh@msn.com

Board of Discipline Editors

The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences has a 12-member

Board of Discipline Editors representing many scientific and technical

fields. The members of the Board of Discipline Editors are affiliated with

a variety of scientific institutions in the Washington area and beyond -

government agencies such as the National Institute of Standards and

Technology; universities such as George Mason University; and scientific

societies such as IEEE.

Anthropology

Astronomy

Biology /Biophysics

Botany

Chemistry

Computer Sciences

Environmental Natural

Sciences

Health

History of Medicine

Physics

Science Education

Systems Science

Emanuela Appetiti eappetiti@hotmail.com

Sethanne Howard sethanneh@msn.com

Eugenie Mielczarek mielczar@physics.gmu.edu

Mark Holland maholland@salisbury.edu

Deana Jaber djaber@marymount.edu

Kent Miller kent.l.miller@alumni.cmu.edu

Terrell Erickson terrell.ericksonl@wdc.nsda.gov

Robin Stombler rstombler@aubumstrat.com

Alain Touwaide atouwaide@hotmail.com

Katherine Gebbie gebbie@nist.gov

Jim Egenrieder Jim@deepwater.org

Elizabeth Corona elizabethcorona@gmail.com

Washington Academy of Sciences

Ill

Editor’s Comments

Special Section on Human Factors

This issue features two articles based on presentations at the

Washington Academy of Sciences’ Capital Science (“CapSci”) conference

in March 2012. The papers were presented on behalf of the Potomac

Chapter of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society (POT-HFES)

mini-symposium at CapSci 2012, and they are:

• “Human Systems Integration (HSI): Psychological Influences in

Design Produce Exceptional Operator Performance” by Gerald

Krueger, and

• “Commercial Truck Driver Performance in Emergency Maneuvers

and Extreme Roadway Conditions Presented in a Driving

Simulator” by Justin Morgan and a highly-regarded group of

researchers at Virginia Tech’s Transportation Institute.

The Academy has featured a series of CapSci POT-HFES mini-symposia

and follow-up articles in this Journal over the years. For those particularly

interested in the topic, the former issues with multiple articles on the topic

of human factors were dated: Summer 2006, Fall 2008, and Fall 2010. We

thank Dr. Jerry Krueger for organizing the series of special issues and note

that, as we’re going to print on this issue, the U.S. Army MANPRINT

Program is announcing availability of an upcoming Joint HSI display in

the Pentagon ... so, clearly it’s a timely topic!

Articles and Follow-up

The third article of this issue, “Springs of Washington, D.C.: A

Tale of Urbanization” by John (“Jack”) Sharp, focuses on another

important topic— changes to certain geological conditions that originally

made the D.C. area attractive for settlement centuries ago. The

background on this article extends back to the time of the nation’s

bicentennial, when Garnett Williams examined old newspaper files to

locate the city’s springs and understand the early water courses dating

back to 1776. This research resulted in Williams’ 1977 U.S. Geological

Survey (USGS) Circular entitled (sadly) “Washington, D.C.’s Vanishing

Springs and Waterways.” As follow-up to that bicentennial study, the

Geological Society of Washington sponsored a 2012 field trip to examine

the modern-day sites of the long-ago “fresh brooks and streams” of the

D.C. area. Our brief article is based on the recent field trip, about which

Dr. Sharp commented, “I think the important thing is for folks to realize

what is under their feet (and cars) and how it affects our environment ...”

Spring 2013

IV

We’re pleased to share this eye-opening perspective, and think you’ll

enjoy learning from it. Thanks to Sandy Neuzil of USGS for her help and

advice on the material.

Academy Business

We also include in this issue remarks made at the Academy’s May

15, 2013 annual meeting by outgoing president Jim Cole and incoming

president Jim Egenrieder, along with a photo of our distinguished officers

and board.

I’d like to invite members of the Academy community to contact

me if interested in working with our interdisciplinary Journal staff on

various roles. We are beginning a new search for individuals to serve on

our Board of Discipline Editors. As always, we welcome ideas for special

issues and manuscripts on topics of interest to our readership. We also

welcome essays on current issues and letters to the editor on recent

articles.

Last, but certainly not least, we’re always happy to add to our great

group of anonymous reviewers and volunteer proofers. We have a

dedicated group of individuals who are devoted to the Journal’s cause on

an ongoing basis — and we’re truly grateful for their help — and, at the

same time, we also appreciate fresh views and energy!

For help with this issue, we thank Professor Katherine E. Rowan,

Director of the Science Communication Graduate Program at George

Mason University (GMU); Elizabeth Grisham, student in the same GMU

program; and Emanuela Appetiti of the Institute for the Preservation of

Medical Traditions. Thank you, again, to all.

Sally A. Rood, PhD, Editor

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences

sallv.rood@cox.net

Washington Academy of Sciences

Erratum in the Winter 2012,

Vol. 98, Issue 4

Albert Gerard Gluckman, “Methods to derive the Einstein partial

differential equation describing the ray optics and kinematics of his light

ray path experiment with moving mirror,” pp. 47-62.

(a) Section 4 on page 52

Was: “This assignment simplifies equation (5)”

Should be: “This assignment simplifies equation (7)”

(b) Section 4 on page 52

Was: “Applying the chain rule of the differential calculus to the

terms in equation (6) yields”

Should be: “Applying the chain rule of the differential calculus to

the terms in equation (8) yields”

(c) Section 4 on page 53

Was: “Therefore, equation (9)”

Should be: “Therefore, equation (11)”

(d) Section 5 on page 54

Was: “Upon substitution, equation (10)”

Should be: “Upon substitution, equation (12)”

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VI

(e) Section 5 on page 55

The appearance of the array at the top of the page is:

r f x\i^) ~ I r I H, K) - | .x ’ - H) c_,..r | H, K ) - \!^-K)cj.t\ H, K )

->

- ‘-.xiHXy - ^ \H,K')

‘irl'O.;^) - Srl.¥,A') - T(0-.¥}<?.,.rl AfA') - -A)c^r(*¥,A)

where the vertical dashed line (it has two dashes) in the third line from

the top is actually an equal sign. There are two such equal signs. The

arrow points to the first one.

(f) Section 6 on page 56

Was: “Equation 14”

Should be: “Equation 16”

Was: “Equation 15”

Should be: “Equation 17”

(g) Section 6 on page 57

Was: “which after substitution of equations (7) and (8), takes the

form of equation (9),”

Should be: “which after substitution of equations (9) and (10),

takes the form of equation (1 1),”

Washington Academy of Sciences

Vll

(h) Section 7 on page 57

Was: “([3j see his ref. 4, ch. XI, p. 173)”

Should be: “([3] see ch. XI, p. 173)”

(i) Appendix on page 59

Was: v =

Should be: v = jc

(j) Diagram 2 in the Appendix

Was: In the sentence starting with “Comparison of numerical results

from . . .moves away from ...”

Should be: In the sentence starting with “Comparison of numerical

results from . . .moves towards ...”

The equation that follows this sentence has an error. The following

equation is correct.

r, = 2.6x10 ^ -f

0.75xl0'(10)

(9.0-0.5625)xl0'°

= 3.5 xlO sec

(k) Bio on page 62

Was: Dr. Gluckman is the author of seven monographs published by

the Washington Academy of Sciences. They cover the

evolution of electrical experiments over a 200 year period. He

has also published 32 peer reviewed papers in many journals

including the Proc. IEEE, the Am. J. Physics, and the Matrix

and Tensor Quarterly. He prepared a replica typescript for the

Joseph Henry papers of the Smithsonian that used the written

notes of Henry on oscillatory current (1836 - 1842). He also

worked with NASA and DoD on edge diffraction and multiple

reflections of microwaves over terrain.

Should be: A. G. Gluckman is the author of the 7th monograph

published since 1898 by the Washington Academy of Sciences.

Spring 2013

The book is an annotated bibliography of experimental studies

of electrical science and technology over a 200 year period. It

was reviewed by an editor from The Joseph Henry Papers of

the Smithsonian. After retirement from Federal Service with

NASA and DoD, he taught mathematics as an Adjunct

Professor at the University of the District of Columbia.

Washington Academy of Sciences

Human Systems Integration (HSI):

Psychological Influences In Design Produce

Exceptional Operator Performance

Gerald P. Krueger

Krueger Ergonomics Consultants, Alexandria, Virginia

Abstract

During the past two decades, that portion of human factors and ergonomics

work centered in materiel acquisition settings has been largely subsumed

into the larger context of “human systems integration” or HSI - where such

work has taken its rightful place as an important part of systems

engineering and management processes (Booher, 2003). Human systems

integration focuses on ensuring all human elements are properly accounted

for in research and design initiatives when developing large configurations

of people-operated equipment and systems. HSI evolved from practical

applications of established human-oriented design principles espoused in

the fields of engineering psychology, human engineering and macro-

ergonomics - disciplines predominately pioneered in military acquisition

programs since World War II. HSI is also now more widely employed in

procurement of large new civilian systems of people and machines in such

diverse applications as new transportation, communication, finance and

banking, and homeland security systems design, as well as the diverse

designs of hospital surgical wards and treatment centers. This article

describes the derivation and basic premises of incorporating engineering

psychology into HSI. It also presents a few practical contemporary

examples of the application of psychology in HSI.

Introduction

One cannot adequately describe the early derivation of HSI without

pointing out the role of engineering psychology in military materiel

system development processes. Since World War II, engineering

psychologists contributed immensely to the design of complex,

sophisticated equipment and weapon systems to ensure that military

personnel operate at optimum levels in training and combat. Engineering

psychologists not only do superb human sciences research, but as

practitioners, serve as key consultants advocating for system users

(soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines) in the materiel systems engineering

and development process. Human factors specialists bring in-depth

appreciation and prediction of how human operators will perform on new

high-technology systems - often under stressful working conditions, in

harsh environmental extremes, occasionally encountering information

Spring 2013

2

overload, in time-sensitive settings requiring quick, accurate decision-

making, where failure is not an option.

While these attributes certainly pertain to military settings, there

are close parallels in numerous civilian applications when considering the

jobs of: human operators in airline transport of cargo or passengers; next

generation air traffic control; municipal rapid transit systems; intelligent

highway systems; bridge and roadway toll systems; processing

computerized banking and finance services; providing hospital, police,

fire, ambulance and other first responder services; maintaining public

utilities such as nuclear power reactors and regional electrical grids, water

purification and sanitation plants; activating homeland security systems;

aerospace systems, and even initiatives in national intelligence networks

and efforts to prevent cyber-terrorism.

Engineering Psychology is Key to HSI

Engineering psychology is a scientific discipline that elucidates

and predicts the performance of individuals and teams while they carry out

tasks on their jobs - usually operating or maintaining equipment {e.g.,

vehicles, communication and computer systems, weapons, plant control

centers and more). Engineering psychologists possess good grounding in

applied experimental psychology, cognitive engineering, experimental

design and statistics. They usually conduct human experiments to measure

performance in attempts to determine the best ways to design human-

operated equipment and systems, as well as to streamline preferred

operating procedures with a goal of optimizing human-system

performance {e.g., being user friendly, not error-prone, without incident or

accident, and facilitating design to achieve desired operator performance

of the system). Through their research engineering, psychologists establish

generalized, predictive human performance principles to advise project

management designers about how humans will perform in operating future

systems still being developed. One of the simplest examples in deciding

function allocation in systems design may be for the psychologist to help

determine “what people-are-better-at,” versus “what machines-are-better-

af’ in performing certain tasks {e.g., determining appropriate amounts of

automation, perhaps related to the proliferation of robots and unmanned

ground vehicles, and remotely piloted air systems such as “drones” in

homeland security surveillance or on contemporary battlefields).

Engineering psychologists often work as part of multidisciplinary

system-design teams, which may include specialists in anthropometry.

Washington Academy of Sciences

3

physiology, biomechanics, job task analyses, or safety engineering. They

often work in collaboration with design engineers charged to consider all

the human variables in their new systems. The work, all of it devoted to

better design for humans, takes on broader titles of “human engineering,”

“human factors engineering,” “ergonomics,” “human-centered design,”

“human systems design,” or simply “human factors.” The titles, with the

exception of “ergonomics,” are often used interchangeably. The term

ergonomics derives from the Greek ergon, for “work” (in physics, the erg

is a unit of measurement indicating expenditure of energy), and from

nomos, meaning “law.” Ergonomics, then, is the study of the laws of

people expending energy at work - examination of the relationship

between humans and their working environment (Murrell, 1965).

Initially centered in Europe and in Japan, ergonomics research

stressed physiological, biomechanical, and anthropometric studies to seek

efficiencies of people at work. Soviet Russians sought to integrate labor

safety and health factors to become part and parcel of machine design, to

progress past considering safety engineering as an addition or an

afterthought, but rather as safe engineering design from the outset

(Zinchenko and Munipov, 1979). By some contrast, engineering

psychologists and human factors specialists, originally centered mainly in

the United States, initially focused more on the sensory and cognitive

aspects of work: sensation, perception, visual processes, information

handling, decision-making, and so forth. This prompted advocates to say

engineering psychology in the United States focused more on behavior

from the neck up (Meister, 1971, 1999).

The unique contribution of engineering psychologists to system-

engineering teams is that psychologists are trained to conduct experiments

examining human performance. In particular, psychologists are best

equipped to design studies that account for the trickiest of human

performance variables: (a) individual differences (people behave and

operate differently); (b) learning and skill development (people improve

with repetition, they learn over time, and they can be trained); (c)

motivation (people are moved to action by different incentives, they

become bored with monotonous work); and (d) people can and will work

in teams, with leaders and followers, sharing a workload and supporting

one another in accomplishing a mission. While holding unique roles in

designing experiments, engineering psychologists who are persuasive in

portraying their compelling experimental data often exude leadership;

consequently, they not only influence system-design decisions, they often

take on key managerial roles for multidisciplinary teams.

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Influence of World War II

The early history of engineering psychology or “human factors” is

traced to military and industrial work done between World Wars I and II.

Human factors research and testing initially focused on improving the

production line, and the selection of personnel to fit the task - finding the

right person for the job. By contrast, World War II provided a significant

impetus to interdisciplinary investigations aimed at finding optimal

conditions for people’s activity and the limit of human possibilities.

Complex military hardware and weapon systems often made excessively

heavy demands on operating personnel, far beyond human

psychophysiological capabilities (Zinchenko and Munipov, 1979). Rapid

technological developments such as radar, sonar, and high-speed aircraft

produced some situations in which no amount of selection and training

could enable an operator to fully exploit the potential of his/her

equipment. The demands of World War II military technology provided a

new and unifying focus for engineering psychology and human factors

work, as it became necessary to “fit the job to the man,” to design

equipment and systems with human potentials and limitations in mind.

The subject matter of research was couched in terms of “adaptation of the

machine to the person” and posed the question: Which human properties

should be taken into account in building a machine for the person to

operate? The focus changed to fit the machine tasks to a large number of

prospective human operators.

During World War II, hundreds of psychologists left academic

positions to support the war effort. A significant portion of them

performed studies aimed at designing, testing, and evaluating military

equipment systems. At the end of that war, the nation demobilized, and

psychologists returned to their academic laboratories. But the transition to

“Cold War” efforts saw the U.S. government in-house and extramural

engineering psychology programs {i.e., by adding programs at university

and government captured research centers) grow dramatically, especially

from 1946-1953; and again in the early 1960s. In 1957, the Soviet Union

launched the first Sputnik satellite. That event so surprised and shocked

the American public that it fostered a spectacular growth in federal

support for science and technology, especially in the aerospace arenas. It

included the segments of human factors engineering research perceived to

have relevant contributions to make (Alluisi, in Taylor, 1994). For a brief

history of the growth, and the particular missions of pertinent military

research laboratories, see Chapanis, Garner and Morgan (1949), Chapanis

( 1 999), Meister ( 1 999), and Krueger (20 1 2).

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5

Human Factors Research, Post-World War II

From 1950 to 1970, a substantial amount of military engineering

psychology research was conducted at numerous government in-house and

other federally funded research facilities. Parsons (1972) comprehensively

reported dozens of those research efforts, which he dubbed “Man-Machine

System Experiments.” Parsons described these as laboratory-based studies

of multi-person situations, but also man-machine interactions, consisting

of tasks in operational system settings responding to complex

environmental stimuli, and for which the research methods included

manipulation, replication, control of variables, collection of objective

measures of human performance and quantification of results.

Man-machine system experiments relied extensively on

simulation, and because they involved human operators as participants,

they were distinct from simulations performed entirely on computers.

Some of the research was done within four walls, but frequently the

laboratory was actual military terrain designated and instrumented for

experimental purposes. Some of the man-machine experiments sought

knowledge about a particular system, a piece of equipment, a training

technique, operator procedures, or certain conditions affecting human

performance. Other experiments tried to acquire generalizable knowledge

about the way humans perform in system settings. How do operators and

managers make decisions? How do they develop their standardized

procedures? How do they communicate with each other? For details and

pointers on how to design complex human-machine system experiments,

consult Parsons (1972).

The Profession Comes of Age

During the 1950s, in the United States, rapid growth of the new

discipline was apparent in two ways. First, numerous engineering

psychology studies were published in the open literature, as these were

coming out of military research labs, and from university research

programs sponsored with military research funding (e.g., from

organizations such as the Office of Naval Research). Maturing industrial

research centers (e.g., Bell Telephone Labs et al.) also published

significant human factors work.

Second, to represent the science of human factors engineering, two

professional societies were formed in the United States and one in Europe.

On the U.S. East Coast, engineering psychologists with common

affiliation promoted identification of their profession by forming, in 1956,

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6

a new Division of the American Psychological Association: Division 21,

the Society of Engineering Psychologists (now called Applied

Experimental and Engineering Psychology). Over the decades since then,

Division 21 members, active-duty military officers, defense civil servants,

academicians and other defense contractors accomplished significant

amounts of engineering psychology research. Their results had both

military and civilian applications. Some of the most productive and

prominent among them are written about in Taylor’s (1994) treatise, “Who

Made Distinguished Contributions to Engineering Psychology.” A new

journal was initiated, currently entitled: Experimental Psychology:

Applied. Today Division 21 now has approximately 300 psychologist

members.'

In Southern California, seat of the aircraft and aerospace

industries, persons interested in the new emphasis on human factors

research formed the Human Factors Society (HFS) in 1957. With it, they

introduced the journal Human Factors. The HFS accepted as members

anyone who worked in the multiple areas of human factors - areas dealing

with considerations of human factors that influence the design and

operation of systems, including human-machine interfaces, product and

workspace designs, and safety. In the beginning, almost half of HFS

members were psychologists. However, HFS has never been viewed as a

“psychological society.” In 1992, HFS was renamed the Human Factors

and Ergonomics Society (HFES) and it currently has over 4,500 members;

perhaps fewer than one-third identify themselves as psychologists. The

research and practitioner backgrounds of the HFES membership are varied

and the professional society is very much an interdisciplinary one. For a

history of the formative years of the HFES, see the Chapanis Chronicles

(1999)?

Meanwhile in Europe, the term ergonomics was adopted in Britain

in 1950, when a group of British scientists organized the Ergonomics

Research Society (ERS) as a joint European endeavor of physiologists,

psychologists, anatomists, engineers and designers. The name ergonomics

was selected because it did not derive from any one of the disciplines, but

rather encompassed portions of each of them. This professional affiliation

prompted significant amounts of quality research on human-systems

design. Its members and international colleagues published prolifically in

the long-standing journal today entitled. Ergonomics, the International

Journal of Research and Practice in Human Factors and Ergonomics.

Washington Academy of Sciences

7

During the 65 years since World War II, the several professional

human factors and ergonomics communities crisscrossed the oceans,

gradually merged most of their philosophies, and eventually changed the

names of their professional societies to encompass both camps. In 2009,

the Ergonomics Research Society changed its name to the Institute of

Ergonomics and Human Factors (lEHS)^ (Waterson, 2011). Practitioners

today use combined titles, readily identifying themselves as human factors

and ergonomics specialists.

From Human Factors in Army MANPRINT

to Human Systems Integration

Human factors specialists, working as members of

multidisciplinary teams on the development of military systems, often

conduct experiments and field studies with soldiers, sailors, airmen and

marines. For half a century, the results of their work were directed into

Department of Defense materiel acquisition decision-making forums

where the major question usually is whether to pursue further development

and/or to advance to the production procurement step for new weapons

and other materiel systems. In such acquisition arenas, the distinctive label

of “professional researcher” is often lost. Anyone who serves as the

advocate for soldier performance (or that of any user/operator/maintainer),

and represents operator/user concerns, is normally identified as the

“human factors representative” in the system design process.

An overriding aim of the engineering psychologist, or the human

factors specialist, is to do more than just assist system designers to “meet

threshold requirement design criteria” (usually stated in minimal

performance expectations for the new system to meet envisioned

missions). Rather, his/her goals include performing research that will

“enhance” operator performance of these systems. Each of the four U.S.

military services has its own system for incorporating human performance

data and other human factors findings, to assure procurement of the best

human-machine systems design possible. All human factors shortcomings

identified during operational testing with ultimate user representatives are

to be resolved through redesign or retrofit. Alternatively, risks are to be

mitigated in some other way, such as by altering the operator procedures

or by embellishing operator training before procurement decisions are

finalized. Another one of the goals of human factors specialists, then, is to

affect design decisions as early in the research and development cycle as

practical, so as not to require making “fixes” or “retrofits” to problems

later, which might be identified prior to (or even after) procurement and

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8

fielding. Meeting this later goal of having an early impact is a frequent

challenge, because in dynamic settings, design requirements continually

change."^

In assessing the successes of a dozen or more major weapon-

system and civilian high technology development programs, Booher

(2003) concluded that there is little question of the positive value of

employing human factors engineering in producing safe and effective

products and systems. However, in the 1980s, even after years of research

and development and operational testing had been done, several new U.S.

Army major equipment systems exhibited significant operator

performance problems. To determine “what went wrong,” the Army

conducted reverse systems engineering analyses to establish “lessons

learned,” in hopes of improving subsequent equipment development

programs. This effort was spearheaded by General Maxwell Thurman,

who at the time was the Army’s Deputy Chief of Staff for Personnel. In

1986, General Thurman formalized those lessons into the Army’s

Manpower Personnel Integration (MANPRINT) program - a human

operator-oriented systems engineering management and technical program

destined to improve the design of weapon systems and military unit

performance.

In initiating MANPRINT, the U.S. Army was the first organization

to fully implement and demonstrate the benefits of a comprehensive

human systems integration (HSI) approach. General Thurman, the fiercest

proponent of MANPRINT, coaxed Army leadership into changing the

focus of equipment developers away from “equipment only” and more

toward a “total system” view - one that focuses directly on the human

elements as critical components of the system. The new focus recognized

the human operators as the primary reasons for designing, developing and

deploying a system. Henceforth, Army Acquisition was to consider soldier

performance and equipment reliability together as a system.

The MANPRINT program is very broad, and includes all Army

management, technical processes, products, and related information

covering six domains.^ These six domains are:

1 ) Manpower (to identify the number of people needed to operate and

maintain new systems)

2) Personnel Capability (to identify the skill sets needed)

3) Training (for both new equipment and sustainment)

4) Human Factors Engineering (HFE)

5) System Safety, and

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6) Health Hazards (exposure to operators and maintainers of the

systems under development).

After the Persian Gulf War of 1991, a seventh domain of Soldier

Survivability was added. The Survivability domain considers

characteristics of the system that can reduce fratricide, detectability, and

probability of attack, and includes minimizing risks of personal injury and

cognitive and physical fatigue. The unique aspect of the MANPRINT

program was its effective integration of human factors into the mainstream

of materiel system definition, statement of requirements, development and

deployment (Booher, 2003).

Eventually, the U.S. Navy initiated a similar program, entitling it

SEAPRINT for Systems Engineering Acquisition and Personnel

Integration, which basically contains the same domains, but instead of

survivability identifies a Habitability domain, combining some elements

of HFE, safety, and health hazards for onboard-ship considerations. The

U.S. Air Force briefly flirted with its own proposed AIRPRINT version,

again with slightly different domain names. However, the effort was cut

somewhat short when, in 2001, the Department of Defense issued

mandatory procedures for major defense acquisition programs, which

were to adhere to the newly formalized Human Systems Integration (HSI)

concept which programmatically identifies most of the domains of

MANPRINT. Some of the DoD HSI elements, such as System Safety,

which includes Occupational Health and Health Hazards Assessment, are

less clearly delineated, as their descriptions are embedded in other

portions of very voluminous acquisition documents (z.e., DoD 5000. 2R

June 2001; DoD 5000.02, December 2008).

Subsequent evolution of military HSI applications found human

factors specialists involved in addressing new questions posed by the

acquisition teams, especially regarding system life cycle cost projections.

As was traditionally the case, human factors specialists continued to help

resolve important human design decisions, such as critiquing human

engineering designs of individual crew served weapons {e.g.. How many

crew members are required to operate an individual tank? or Should a

helicopter cockpit accommodate two pilots seated side-by-side versus

positioning them in tandem front-back seating?). Now under HSI, human

factors specialists interact with other project analysts to account for such

Manpower and Training human-related considerations as: How many

troops will be needed to staff a whole battalion of combat vehicle

operators and maintainers over a decade of training and warfare? What

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will it cost to offer new equipment training to hundreds of soldiers to

operate a new weapon system and to offer sustainment schoolhouse

training to thousands more newcomers over a decade? Some specialists

would label such work as macro-ergonomics.

Applications of HSI in the Non-Military World

In December 2010, in recognition of the growing stature and

importance of HSI in the nation’s science base, the National Academy of

Scienees’ National Research Council (NRC) elevated the long-standing

Committee on Human Systems Integration to the level of a board, and it is

now the Board of Human Systems Integration (BOHSI). This newly

acquired national Board stature adds recognition of the importance of HSI

for all government agencies. It helps promulgate its importance into

industry and commerce as well.^

HSI methodologies work best for organizations whose acquisition

programs are developing large systems of people and equipment. Beyond

those methodologies in place in military acquisition programs, there are

numerous other examples where HSI has been (or should be) adopted.

Several federal agencies beyond DoD have already either adopted many

tenants of HSI or are presently evaluating the DoD HSI model(s) to assess

which portions would work well for them, with the intention of adapting

selected portions deemed of benefit to them. Such agencies as the

Department of Transportation and its Federal Aviation Administration,

numerous agencies in the Department of Homeland Security (e.g., its U.S.

Coast Guard), the U.S. Postal Service, and others have obvious need for

such systems engineering approaches. Some examples of non-DOD

applications of human-machine interaction studies, both in government

equipment procurement and in industrial applications procurement, can be

found in the recent book on human-centered design edited by Guy Boy

(2011).

The Need for Culture Change

Booher (2003) wrote that HSI is very attractive as a new

integrating discipline that can move business and engineering cultures

toward a people-technology orientation. Human factors and ergonomics

are necessary fields for successful implementation of HSI. However, they

are not sufficient in either military or civilian acquisition applications,

because they do not fully cover other important human domains that need

representation, and because of their general inability to significantly

influence organizational decision-makers. To be effective, the needed

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culture change must start with organizational leadership. At the heart of

the need for a cultural change in business and engineering is the fact that

HFE, as a people/technology interface discipline, has, by itself, been

largely ineffective at changing ingrained attitudes in government and in

most industries. If organizations are to change significantly to take

advantage of the benefits offered by HSI, top management needs to

require that human factors principles are utilized. Boorer (2003) should

have added that the “HSI theme” also needs to be institutionalized. He

wrote that, even when the benefits of human factors are fully appreciated

by top leadership, the influence on systems acquisition tends to erode with

changeovers in leadership (Booher, 2003). Newly arrived leaders must be

educated to the merits of the HSI approach. At least on paper, military

acquisition policies attempt to ensure that adherence to HSI principles

carries through changeovers of leaders and are therefore more likely to

have a positive impact on the next similar system development within the

same office. However, this is not guaranteed, and organizational

downsizing, significant budget decreases, and changes in acquisition

policies loom as perennial threats to the notion of institutionalizing the

beneficial features of the HSI process.

Some of the same organizational concerns were also highlighted

by a U.S. National Research Council (NRC) committee addressing issues

facing the HSI community within systems engineering (Pew and Mavor,

2007). The committee offered suggestions on how to succeed in the

currently evolving systems engineering environment. This is an

environment that prizes risk-identification and management and

n

incremental and spiral development, and also one that employs iterative

designs, implements revolutionary software design tools and

methodologies, and fully engages in an incremental commitment model of

development. The NRC committee fosters the creation of more synergy

between HSI research and practice to make practitioners more aware of

relevant research and better inform researchers about the insights and body

of knowledge gained from practice (Pew and Mavor, 2007).

The NRC committee’s numerous conclusions and

recommendations should promote discussion among HSI proponents and

spur human factors and ergonomics practitioners into action. If we are

already engaged in the materiel acquisition transformation process, and

have not done enough about the NRC committee’s recommendations, soon

we will be left with the existing esoteric approach to system design — and

which will have been by-passed a decade ago (Krueger, 2007).

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In her recent presidential address to the Human Factors and

Ergonomics Society, Mica Endsley said: “To make real inroads into the

systems engineering design process, human systems engineering needs to

be clearly recognized along with other engineering professions as a key

participant in the development of system requirements, as a contributor

during the system design process, and as a mandatory requirement for

system test and validation.” (Endsley, October 2012). Thus, Endsley

repeats the refrain that “early participation” in the system concept phases

- and especially in the specification of the system design requirements

phase - is of paramount importance for HSI and human factors

practitioners.

Practical HSI Examples of Retrofitting New Equipment

into Extant Systems

In my own human factors career, I gained much personal

experience in accomplishing HSI assessments and recommending

practical human factors solutions to identified problems. To illustrate a

few recent experiences, I offer here two examples of designing new

systems or retrofitting new equipment technologies into existing materiel

systems.

Smoothing Out Border Crossing Security Screening

The first example (of retrofitting) involves an attempt to assist the

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency with the addition of

radio-frequency identification (RFI) chip technology into automobile

drivers’ ID cards in order to smooth out the border-crossing process

between the United States and its neighbors, Canada and Mexico. There

were numerous human factors issues associated with the installation and

operation of new RFI tracking technologies. New security screening

equipment had to be integrated into an existing border-crossing security

system. One of the major tricky human factors questions concerned how

best to “train” a wide diversity of border-crossing travelers - who

possessed different reading levels and operated with different native

languages - to intuitively understand “how and where” to present their

newly acquired RFI cards to engage the security screening tracking system

as their vehicles passed through the queue in front of the CBP officers’

booths at the borders.

The CBP complaint initially was that hundreds of drivers in the

queues were literally waving their cards at anything on posts or bollards

that looked like possible “card readers.” Consequently, properly executed

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compliance numbers were only around 1 0% successes. The human factors

solution we eventually worked out was to mount on each RFI antenna a

sign with a drawing of a generic hand illustrating how to hold the card.

The placard had to be a weather-proofed adhesive sign containing an

instructional depiction of how to hold the card without fingers occluding

the RFI chip. It had to prompt travelers driving through the border access

lane to display the card immediately in front of the actual RFI antenna

arrays. The simple instruction to “point your card here” was posted in

English and French at the Canadian border, and in English and Spanish at

the Mexican border. This simple, straightforward human factors solution

increased successful traveler compliance to well over 55% during the first

week of deployment (a sizeable improvement in a short amount of time).

Other human factors measures that were adopted included posting

instructional signs well in advance of the border crossing where travelers

could read the instructions as they advanced through the queues. Within a

matter of months, this hand-sign solution, among countless others, was

employed at over 100 U.S. border crossings.

The series of four photos depict: a typical traffic backup of

travelers in automobiles waiting their turn for security screening at a

border crossing (Figure 1); installation of vehicle tracking systems

including RFI antenna arrays to read travelers RFI-embedded ID cards

(Figure 2); a close-up view of the weather resistant instructional sign

installed to tell travelers where to point their RFI cards to properly activate

the tracking/screening system (Figure 3); and a wide-angle view of

multiple approach lanes to a representative border crossing, wherein each

lane queue was equipped with the new instructional signs (Figure 4).

Reengineering Soldier-Worn Computer Systems

My second practical example is depicted in a single photo (Figure

5) showing a prototype version of the U.S. Army’s Land Warrior

computerized infantryman system {circa 2002). In this new innovative

fighting system, the Land Warrior soldier was to be equipped with: a belt-

worn full-up computer system; a helmet-mounted display depicting a color

map; a head-mounted set of night vision goggles; a daylight video capture

system on his rifle; a GPS locator; a local area network short-range

communication system; a multi-function laser feature; an integrated

protective body army vest with ceramic plates; specialized uniform

apparel; weapons; ammunition; vital essentials such as water and first aid

kit; spare batteries; and more.

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Figure 1. Typical queue awaiting screening at border crossing (photo by

the author on CBP project research)

Figure 2. Tracking devices, RFI antennas at border crossing (photo by the

author on CBP project research)

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Figure 3. Instructional card solution produced traveler compliance (photo

by the author on CBP project research)

Figure 4. View of multiple border approach lanes with signs (photo by the

author on CBP project research)

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Figure 5. Prototype computerized Land Warrior infantry system (photo

provided by Program Executive Soldier Office, Fort Belvoir, VA)

Talk about soldier loads ... whew! This new soldier system was

designed to provide not only significant amounts of additional fighting

capability to the individual infantryman, but also enhanced capability for

his 11 -person squad, the 40-person platoon, and on up the chain of

command to a 600+ person infantry battalion. Just imagine how many

replacement batteries are required to provide the necessary power for a

battalion to operate such technologies in the field.

There are still numerous human factors and human systems

integration challenges to be resolved in designing such equipment, the

interfaces among them, the trade-offs necessary because of much-added

weight for the soldier to carry - and all with the overriding goal of making

the systems soldier friendly and useable in accomplishing an infantry

mission. Our Human Factors team accomplished numerous assessments.

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did field tests and fightability exercises, and provided substantial

recommendations for iterative design modifications and trade-offs as we

participated in many multidisciplinary decision meetings over a decade of

system development efforts.

The Land Warrior system promised to revolutionize infantry

fighting operations, and was clearly headed that way. However, there were

occasional times of awaiting even more sophisticated technological

innovations, and then experiencing impending funding shortfalls, which

prompted directional changes in the program. The Land Warrior has since

morphed into successor programs. No doubt one day we will see a variant

of this infantry system fielded by the U.S. Army.

Summary and Conclusion

This section summarizes the salient points made in this treatise

through several sets of bullets centered around: (1) the key HSI points and

issues; (2) the HSI role in contemporary systems design engineering; and

(3) the HSI messages to heed. The summary section is followed by a

discussion of the problems in applying HSI.

First, the key points and issues made about HSI are these:

• HFE&E (human factors engineering and ergonomics) is necessary

for good design but, by itself, is not sufficient to affect organizational

decision-makers.

• Engineering psychologists know how to do good human factors

research (which also, by itself, is not sufficient, often takes too long, and is

too late to impact system design decisions).

• Researchers must strive not just to meet system threshold

requirements, but rather to enhance human performance beyond

expectations.

• As an attractive integrating discipline, HSI can move business and

engineering cultures toward a people-technology orientation.

• A cultural change is needed: top managers must require human

factors principles be incorporated from the conceptual phase of system

design.

• The HSI process must be institutionalized, due to frequent

changeovers in leadership.

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Second, the HSI role in contemporary systems design engineering

is summarized as the following:

• Contemporary Systems Engineering prizes these methodologies;

(a) risk-identification and management; (b) incremental and spiral

development (evolutionary design); (c) iterative designs (successive small

improvements); (d) revolutionary software design tools and

methodologies; and (e) the incremental commitment model of

development.

• HSI practitioners must be better attuned to trends in the above

areas.

• HSI researchers must couch research findings in non-esoteric

language that practitioners can bring to the design and decision-making

table for consideration.

Third, the HSI messages to heed are listed here:

• More synergy is needed between HSI research and practice.

• HSI practitioners must be more aware of and understand relevant

research results for use in systems design and applications work.

• HSI researchers must design studies to directly answer system-

relevant questions, or risk producing irrelevant results.

• HSI practitioners must engage in the current materiel acquisition

transformation process, or risk falling significantly behind.

The bullets in Box 1 below. Problems Applying HSI, are presented

as “food for thought.” The box presents a list of the problems that systems

engineering designers must continually grapple with if they are going to

be successful in taking advantage of the possible benefits HSI can offer

them in system development.

The first issue/problem identified is to determine: “Who” is

actually in charge of the design of the eventual system. It is necessary to

grapple with considerations such as “the customer is always right, even

when he is not.” Issues might include: Is it appropriate for the system

developer to design the system to specifically meet and match the design

requirements exactly as specified in the contract - without sufficient

regard to perhaps offering better innovative designs not envisioned at the

time the specs were written? Some technologies advance quickly, and new

approaches should be considered. To this situation, it is incumbent on both

the system designer and the “customer” to share ideas and negotiate

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solutions to satisfy both parties. This is especially the case when the

decision will affect the ultimate user of the system: i.e. the system’s

human operators.

Box 1. Problems Applying HSI

• Who is “in charge” of design (and, therefore, of HSI) in aequisition?

System engineer/designer? Government proeurement agency? Vendor?

• The government competition fair policy can generate systems that are not

neeessarily ready for prime time.

• Retrofitting is more cumbersome and costly than doing it right from the

outset.

• Add-ons to extant systems do not always make for smooth functioning;

sometimes they exacerbate problems.

• Trade-offs are made everywhere. Some are helpful and succeed; some are

not, and make matters worse.

• Military and other government procurement systems involve lengthy

processes.

• Non-military agencies and industries are still grappling with whieh

acquisition model and features of DoD-oriented HSI to adopt.

The second issue involves the notion that - at least in our federal

government procurement actions - adherence to a “competition fair”

procurement policy permits too many vendors to put forth systems they

developed which are not yet ready for prime time. Some first models of

systems really constitute brassboard or breadboard models of what might

be possible if more years of work and funding were available to produce a

fieldable product. This would necessitate stretching out procurement

schedules much longer than they should be, and would likely result in cost

overruns.

The third issue, concerning retrofit, is that occasionally proposed

systems are quickly procured even before they are adequately tested to

demonstrate sufficient performance. Then, the notion is often, “Well, we

can always upgrade or fix this or that problem later” when offering a

product upgrade after fielding. This, too, is a risky procurement avenue.

Often it becomes more troublesome and costly to retrofit a system that was

not designed properly the first time around. This is obviously a risk-

management issue for procurement officers; however, giving due

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consideration to human operator issues when making such trade-off

decisions would be of paramount importance.

Regarding retrofitting, the fourth issue is that it should be

recognized that adding in new technologies to extant operational systems

usually causes many more “hiccups” than procurement officials envision

when making decisions to do it. Consider just one example: When

inserting a new sub-system into an operating control center, the operators

in that center must usually maintain cognizance over old legacy systems

still operating in place. At the same time, they must learn the newly

arrived systems (probably via one-time visits from the new systems

trainers/technicians). The seasoned operators must also train the new

operators to master both the legacy systems and the new systems.

Newcomer replacement personnel are not likely to be school-trained on

the older systems because the schoolhouse moved on to teach the new

systems, and classroom training time is limited. Thus, the workload for

both seasoned hands and replacement personnel is significantly increased

beyond that envisioned by most procurement officials.

Mastering trade-off decision-making is where most successful

system designers earn their keep. Hopefully, such trade-off managers will

take advantage of the consultation provided by a seasoned HSI practitioner

who can offer insights and accurate predictions about how the eventual

human operators will succeed in managing new systems.

As the sixth bullet implies, too many development efforts for large

people-machine systems take excessively long before procurement is

enacted. It is incumbent on all parties to streamline procedures, including

HSI whenever possible, to conserve resources and ensure the fielded

systems have not already passed by the original intent to procure them.

The seventh bullet suggests that when government agencies (and

industry, too) examine the successes and failures of the evolving military

and DoD HSI programs, it will be difficult to decide which attributes and

procedures to adopt into their agency HSI model for incorporation into

their own acquisition and procurement system.

After doing human factors work for more than 45 years in different

venues, it is apparent that the challenges of incorporating customer/user

advocate representation in the design and fielding of large people-machine

systems are becoming more prevalent and important to society at large.

Newer attempts to resolve human-related issues can be envisioned as new

technology systems affecting large swaths of society are currently being

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designed or redesigned. The need for HSI applications is apparent in: the

design of new health care systems in hospitals, nursing homes, and home

care; the next generation air traffic management system for the national

airspace; considerations of unmanned aircraft systems (e.g., drones) in air

traffic airspace; the design of intelligent highway systems, national

intelligence networks and anti-cyber threat and anti- terrorist systems; and,

the design of future military systems (especially the design of new naval

vessels that envision utilizing crews one-third the size of those on former

naval ships). The more human factors practitioners can highlight the

importance of our work in assisting system designers to overcome

obstacles (and help them anticipate and implement solutions to envisioned

human-operator problems), the better our profession will become, and the

more seriously and effectively our inputs will be adopted in the future.

' See the Division 21 web site at http://www.apadivisions.org/division-21/index.aspx.

2

See also www.hfes.org.

^ See www.ergonomics.org.uk.

For recent examples from the U.S. Army, see Savage-Knepshield, Martin, Lockett and

Allender (2012).

^ See http://www.manprint.armv.mil/.

^ See www.nationalacademies.org/bohsi.

^ Concurrent acquisition and test and evaluation processes emphasizing interaction

among developer, tester and user communities.

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References

Alluisi, E. A. (1994). American Psychological Association Division 21: Roots and

Rooters. In: H.L. Taylor (Ed.). Who made distinguished contributions to engineering

psychology (p. 4-22). Washington, D.C.: The American Psychological Association,

Division 2 1 : Applied Experimental and Engineering Psychologists.

Booher, H. R. (Ed.) (2003). Handbook of human systems integration. Hoboken, N.J.:

Wiley Interscience, John Wiley & Sons.

Boy, G. (201 1). The handbook of human-machine interaction: A human-centered design

approach. Famham, Surrey, England: Ashgate Publishing, Ltd.

Chapanis, A., Gamer, W. R. and Morgan, C. T. (1949). Applied experimental

psychology: Human factor sin engineering design. New York: Wiley.

Chapanis, A. (1999). The Chapanis chronicles: 50 years of human factors research,

education, and design. Santa Barbara, CA: Aegean Publishing Co.

Endsley, M. R. (2012). Presidential address at the annual meeting of the Human Factors

and Ergonomics Society, Boston, MA; HFES Bulletin, October 2012, Vol. 55, No.

10, p. 1-2.

Krueger, G. P. (2007). Book review: Human system integration in the system

development process: A new look, book edited by R. W. Pew and A. S. Mavor

(2007). Ergonomics in Design, 15, 4, 28.

Krueger, G. P. (2012). Military engineering psychology: Setting the pace for exceptional

performance. In: J. H. Laurence and M. D. Matthews (Eds.). The Oxford Handbook

of Military Psychology, Chapter 18, p. 232-240, New York, NY: Oxford University

Press.

Meister, D. (1971). Human factors: Theory and practice. New York: Wiley Interscience,

John Wiley & Sons.

Meister, D. (1999). The history of human factors and ergonomics. Mahwah, NJ:

Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.

Murrell, K. F. H. (1965). Ergonomics. London, UK: Chapman and Hall.

Parsons, H. M. (1972). Man machine system experiments. Baltimore, MD: The Johns

Hopkins Press.

Pew, R. W. and Mavor, A. S. (2007). Human-systems integration in the system

development process: A new look. Washington, D.C.: National Research Council,

National Academies Press.

Savage-Knepshield, P., Martin, J., Lockett, J., and Allender, L. (2012). Designing soldier

systems: Current issues in human factors. Farnham, Surrey, England: Ashgate

Publishing, Ltd.

Taylor, FI. L. (Ed.). (1994). Who made distinguished contributions to engineering

psychology {p. 4-22). Washington, D.C.: The American Psychological Association,

Division 21: Applied Experimental and Engineering Psychologists..

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U.S. Department of Defense (2001, June 16). Mandatory procedures for Major Defense

Acquisition Programs (MDAPS) and Major Automated Information Systems

(MAIS) acquisition programs. DOD 5000. 2R. Washington, D.C.; U.S. Department

of Defense..

U.S. Department of Defense (December 2008). Department of Defense Instruction No.

5000.02: Operation of the Defense Acquisition System. Washington, D.C.: Under

Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics..

Waterson, P. (201 1). World War II and other historical influences on the formation of the

Ergonomics Research Society. Ergonomics 54, 12, 1111-1 129..

Zinchenko, V. and Munipov, V. (1979). Fundamentals of Ergonomics . (English

translation in 1989). Union of Soviet Socialist Republics: Progress Publishers.

Acknowledgment

This article is based upon a talk by the same title given by Gerald

P. Krueger at the Potomac Chapter of the Human Factors and Ergonomics

Society’s mini-symposium held at the George Washington University

Center in Arlington, Virginia in conjunction with the Washington

Academy of Sciences’ Capital Science 2012 event March 31, 2012.

Bio

Gerald P. Krueger is a Fellow in the American Psychological

Association (APA) and the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society

(HFES), and an Associate Fellow in the Aerospace Medical Association.

He is the delegate representing the Potomac Chapter of HFES to the

Washington Academy of Sciences (WAS). To showcase the myriad ways

human factors specialists conduct their work, he organized and chaired

four Potomac Chapter HFES mini-symposia at the WAS Capital Science

events in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012. A retired Army officer. Dr. Krueger

is a research psychologist and certified professional ergonomist. In his 45+

year career, he completed dozens of human factors engineering

assessments of developmental materiel systems, in both the military and

civilian sectors.

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Commercial Truck Driver Performance in Emergency

Maneuvers and Extreme Roadway Conditions

Presented in a Driving Simulator

Justin F. Morgan, Scott A. Tidwell, Myra Blanco,

Alejandra Medina-Flinstch and Richard J. Hanowski

Virginia Tech Transportation Institute

Abstract

There is a continual demand for qualified commercial motor vehicle (CMV)

drivers in the United States. However, current standards do not provide

requirements for CMV drivers, and proposed rules addressing minimum training

requirements only address entry-level (novice) driver training. The purpose of

this study is to examine the use of a full-mission CMV driving simulator to

present scenarios relevant to defensive driver training for experienced CMV

drivers, including emergency maneuvers and extreme roadway conditions, and

the associated driver responses to those scenarios. A total of 48 participants

across three trailer types (van-, double-, and tanker-trailers) and experience

levels served as participants and completed simulated driving - including 12

emergency maneuvers and 10 extreme roadway conditions - and received a

rating as to their performance on the task. Results indicated that the majority of

participants across all trailer types and experience levels typically responded

appropriately to the scenarios. However, approximately 30% of experienced

drivers did not respond appropriately in the scenarios. The results suggest that a

CMV driving simulator can be an appropriate refresher or defensive driving

training tool for experienced drivers, and that further research examining

experienced driver training is warranted.

Introduction

Historically, to obtain a commercial driver license (CDL) in

the United States, individuals only had to pass a written test followed by a

vehicle safety equipment inspection test, and skill tests in both a closed

area and on-the-road while driving a commercial vehicle (truck, bus or

motorcoach). There have been no requirements for entry-level operators to

have either classroom or supervised driving time prior to licensure, nor

any requirements for refresher driver training post-licensure. While

proposed Department of Transportation regulations (72FR 73225,

published December 26, 2007) address the void in entry-level driver

training, at the time of the present study data collection {circa 2008-2009),

no such training requirements were in place. Further, the proposed

regulations do not address the issue of refresher driver training.

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This lack of a standard for training commercial vehicle (CMV)

drivers also affected cargo and freight carriers. In the decade leading up to

the year 2008, finding and retaining qualified CDL holders was a very

competitive process. Demographic trends predicted a reduction of

qualified CDL holders due to driver aging and retirement. Thus, the

commercial trucking industry was becoming more concerned with driver

retention and the overall supply of qualified drivers (Howard, Zuckerman,

Strah, and McNally, 2009). This has led to increased industry attention on

the issue of refresher driver training for experienced CDL holders.

Refresher training is provided post-licensure, typically on a regularly

scheduled basis by the driver’s employing carrier. Refresher training

programs have been associated with a decrease in crash involvement

(FMCSA, 1997; Morgan, Tidwell, Medina, Blanco, Hickman, and

Hanowski, 2011).

Increased and standardized truck driver training programs,

including providing more simulation-based driver training, was viewed as

one potential method to address these concerns (Dugan, 2008). Truck

driving simulators offer certain advantages, albeit with certain

disadvantages, to traditional methods of driver training. Robin et al.

(2005) identified a number of the potential benefits for training using a

commercial truck driving simulator, including increased safety during

training, the ability to use replicable driving maneuvers, and the ability to

expose drivers to rarely occurring events and environments. In addition,

simulators offer the opportunity to obtain high quality driver performance

measures that can be costly to obtain from a real vehicle.

However, not all drivers are able to comfortably operate driving

simulators. This discomfort with driving simulators manifests in the form

of visual effects, disorientation, and nausea that has been termed

“simulator sickness” (Pausch, Crea and Conway, 1992). An additional

problem with the use of driving simulators is that driver performance in

the simulated environment is often poorer than that observed in a real

vehicle environment, leading to the possibility of artificially-lowered test

scores (Morgan, Tidwell, Medina and Blanco, 2011).

The purpose of the present study was to explore the capabilities of

a CMV driving simulator to provide appropriate simulations of driving

circumstances requiring emergency maneuvers and extreme roadway

conditions, across drivers with different experience levels and vehicle

configurations (/.e., van-, tanker-, and doubles-trailers). These driving

circumstances necessitate a rapid response on the part of the driver and

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can demonstrate the ability of the simulator to provide advanced,

refresher, driver training.

Method

Participants

A total of 48 CMV drivers served as participants in this study. This

number of participants represents the total number included in the analysis

and excludes any participants {n = 12) dropped due to discomfort while

operating the driving simulator. They were recruited based on their driving

experience levels and primary trailer type operations. Driving experience

was classified into two levels: million miler drivers {i.e., drivers who have

logged one million consecutive miles of CMV driving without a

Department of Transportation [DOT] reportable incident) and non-million

milers {i.e., drivers who have not reached one million consecutive miles of

CMV driving without a DOT reportable incident, or who have at least one

million miles, but have a DOT reportable incident on their record). Only 1

female served as a participant in this study (a van trailer non-million

miler). Participant demographics are summarized in Table 1.

Table 1. Participant Demographics

Note: Figures rounded to the nearest integer.

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CMV Driving Simulator

The driving simulator used for this study was a FAAC model TT-

2000- V7 truck driving simulator. The driving simulator presents 5 forward

visual channels allowing for approximately 225° forward field of view. In

addition to the forward visual channels, two rear channels are provided

using plasma displays mounted on the rear of the cab. These rear channels

are reflected through real flat {i.e., non-planar) mirrors, allowing for

mirror parallax of the view alongside the trailer. The truck simulator has

real working gauges, shifter (configured as a 10-speed non-synchronized

manual transmission for the purposes of this study), pedals, indicators and

warning lights, force feedback steering, and a 3 degree of freedom (heave,

pitch, and roll) motion seat. Figure 1 provides three different views of the

simulator.

Maneuvers and Conditions

A total of 12 driving circumstances necessitating emergency

maneuvers, and 10 extreme driving conditions were identified for

examination in this study. Driving circumstances necessitating emergency

maneuvers were presented as situations requiring a driver response and

were generally classified as mechanical failures, traffic, and/or changing

road conditions. Extreme driving conditions were presented as either

weather- related conditions or road hazards. Figure 2 provides an example

of a snow-covered roadway. Descriptions of each of the scenarios

examined in the study are presented in Table 2.

Measures

Both driving performance and subjective measures of levels of

discomfort (fe., simulator sickness symptoms) were obtained. An

experimenter/observer scored the driver participant’s response to each

emergency maneuver and extreme driving condition. Each driving

response was classified as “responded appropriately,” “responded

inappropriately,” or “failed to respond,” depending on the driver’s

response to the situation. Responded appropriately is operationally defined

as correct actions {e.g., reduce speed in fog) performed to prevent or

reduce severity of a safety critical event. Responded inappropriately is

defined as failing to perform correct actions (e.g., does not reduce speed in

construction zone) to prevent or reduce severity of a safety critical event,

however the driver avoids a safety critical event. In other words, the driver

had a near miss. Failed to respond is defined as failing to perform correct

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actions and having a safety critical event. The ratings for all 48 drivers

were assigned by the same experimenter/observer.

A modified version of the Simulator Sickness Questionnaire (SSQ;

Kennedy et al., 1996) was used to assess participants’ subjective ratings of

discomfort from simulator exposure. This measure consisted of 17

symptoms that participants rated on a scale from “0” (not experiencing the

symptom) to “3” (experiencing severe levels of the symptom). Symptoms

in the SSQ include general discomfort, fatigue, headache, salivation,

sweating, and nausea.

Figure 1. Three views of the FAAC TT-2000-V7 truck simulator.

Figure 2. Example of a simulated snow-covered roadway

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Table 2. Descriptions of the Study Scenarios

Condition Description

Driving Circumstances Necessitating Emergency Maneuvers

Merge Squeeze

Lane Cross

Tire Blowout

Rollovers - Right

Rollovers - Left

Brake Loss

Evasive Maneuver

Animal Crossing

Vehicles merging from highway entrance ramp without

yielding

Oncoming vehicle crossing the center line

Driver will experience a steering axle tire blowout

Designated right hand curves that will cause a rollover

event unless speed is reduced below posted warning

Designated left hand curves that will cause a rollover event

unless speed is reduced below posted warning

Slow air pressure loss until brakes lock; warning light will

activate at 60 lbs of air pressure

Vehicle abruptly stops in travel lane on highway forcing

driver to swerve into left lane or onto shoulder to avoid

Driver will encounter deer crossing while traveling on a

rural road

Blind Entrance Vehicle pulls out from a blind entrance

Pedestrian

Tight City Turns

Driver will encounter a child chasing a ball out into the

road

Turns causing the trailer to off-track into oncoming lane;

traffic is present

Roadway Obstruction Driver will encounter a deer carcass in the travel lane

Extreme Roadway Conditions

Fog

Rain

Snow

Black Ice

8% Upgrade

8% Downgrade

8% Downgrade (snow)

Dirt Road

Construction Zone

Heavy fog while driving on the highway

Heavy rain with slick roads while driving on the highway

Snow-covered roads

Black ice encountered on highway and exit ramp

Continuous 2-mile grade in snow

Continuous 2-mile grade in dry conditions

Continuous 2-mile grade in snow

Half mile in length with bumps

“Construction Ahead” signs followed by left lane closure

on the highway and reduced speed

, ^ . Encountered when entering the town; signs and road

Railroad Crossing

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Procedure

After the informed consent process, participants received an

orientation of the simulator that included information on the various

controls and adjustments of simulator driving controls. Following this, two

familiarization/orientation drives were completed, followed by assessment

of the driver’s susceptibility to simulator sickness symptoms using the

modified SSQ. This SSQ was administered twice; once after each of the

familiarization/orientation drives. Participants who reported or showed

visible signs of discomfort based on the modified SSQ were disqualified

from participation.

After completing the simulator orientation routes, participants

began the study scenario, which was constructed as a single continuous

drive of approximately 75 minutes duration. The simulator was configured

as a conventional truck with 10-speed non-synchronized (double

clutching) manual transmission in conjunction with either a van, tanker, or

a doubles trailer unit. The trailer type selected was dependent on the kind

of trailer the participant currently pulled at his/her place of employment.

The trailer load was selected depending on the trailer type. For those

drivers pulling the 53-foot dry van trailer of the set of double trailers the

load was set as an evenly distributed full load {i.e., 80,000 lbs. gross

vehicle weight rating) while the those drivers pulling the tanker trailer

experienced a half-load configuration to assess the more hazardous

condition of the slosh and surge effects.

The experimenter/observer provided verbal driving directions

while scoring the participant’s performance. The experimenter only

announced instructions on which roads to take and did not cue the driver

to any pending events. The participant experienced different emergency

situations and extreme conditions along the 75-minute drive. In the event

of an incident or crash, the experimenter used a remote control that

allowed the scenario to be restarted at the point 30.0 s before the incident

or crash occurred. This allowed the driver to continue driving progress

from the point before the incident, however without repeating the incident

or collision. At the completion of the scenario, the participant stopped and

parked the simulated vehicle and exited the simulator. The participant then

completed a questionnaire about the simulated drive. This allowed the

participant to rate the realism of each of the emergency maneuvers and

extreme driving conditions on a five-point scale. (For a discussion of these

results, see Morgan, Tidwell, Medina, Blanco, Hickman, and Hanowski,

2011).

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Due to the complexity of the simulation and the variability of

human responses, there were some instances where the participant failed

to experience the event. Drivers were instructed to drive the simulator as

they would normally drive in their real trucks. This was necessary as to

not bias drivers of upcoming events. However, this more natural approach

to driver instruction could lead to a missed event. For example, a driver

could move into the left lane well in advance of an interchange, thus

negating the merge squeeze event. Participants were not asked to perform

the maneuver(s) again and these instances were treated as missing data.

These instances represent less than 2% of emergency maneuvers and less

than 1% of extreme conditions across all participants.

Results

Driving Circumstances Necessitating Emergency Maneuvers

Data for this analysis consisted of the categorical rating of driver

participant responses to each of the emergency maneuvers as assigned by

the experimenter. As depicted in Table 3, the majority of participants

across all experience levels and vehicle types responded with appropriate

driving performance to the emergency maneuvers. The lowest percentage

of appropriate responses was seen in the tanker trailer, non-million miler

participants, who responded appropriately to 57.3% of events. In contrast,

the highest percentage of appropriate responses was observed in the van

trailer, million miler participants, who responded appropriately in 80% of

events.

Table 3. Overall Responses to Emergency Maneuvers

Note: Figures rounded to the nearest integer.

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Comparisons between the responses, based on ratings assigned by

the experimenter of million miler and non-million miler participants, were

evaluated for the emergency maneuvers using Fisher’s exact tests.

Evaluation of the 12 emergency maneuvers indicated a significant

difference between tanker trailer million milers and non-million milers for

the off-road recovery scenario {p = 0.035). This finding suggests that

tanker trailer million milers were more likely to respond appropriately

than non-million milers for this scenario. Likewise, a significant

difference was found between van trailer million milers and non-million

milers for the tire blowout event {p - 0.035), suggesting that van trailer

million milers were more likely to respond appropriately than van trailer

non-million milers for this scenario. No other comparison of experience

levels in the emergency maneuvers reached statistical significance.

Extreme Roadway Conditions

Results for the analysis of the extreme condition responses yielded

similar results to those of the emergency maneuver responses. The

majority of all participant groups responded appropriately to the extreme

condition scenarios. The lowest percentage of appropriate responses was

observed in van trailer, non-million miler participants, at 54.6%, while the

highest percentage of appropriate responses was observed in tanker trailer,

million miler participants, at 73.3%. Overall responses are provided in

Table 4, below.

Table 4. Overall Responses to Extreme Conditions

Note: Figures rounded to the nearest integer.

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Comparisons between the responses for the two experience levels

were examined using Fisher’s exact tests. The 10 extreme conditions were

examined for differences between experience levels for each vehicle

operation type. Results indicated a significant difference between doubles

trailer million milers and non-million milers during the black ice extreme

condition {p = 0.036); doubles trailer non-million milers were more likely

than doubles trailer million miler doubles participants to respond

appropriately. No other comparison of experience levels in the extreme

conditions reached statistical significance.

Discussion and Conclusion

Study Findings

No overall pattern of major statistical differences was found when

comparing drivers of different experience levels across different operation

types. The overall performance during the 12 emergency maneuvers and

10 extreme conditions illustrates that the majority of driver participants

demonstrated appropriate responses to the simulated scenarios. Also,

while not a statistically significant difference, million milers responded

appropriately to both emergency maneuvers and extreme conditions more

frequently than did non-million milers. However, it should be noted that

the million miler participants still responded inappropriately (or not at all)

in approximately 30% of the emergency events and 32% of the extreme

conditions encountered. There are multiple potential explanations for this

finding. The results suggest that all participants, including million milers,

could potentially benefit from refresher defensive driver training that

could be offered in truck driving simulators such as used in this study. The

use of a CMV driving simulator with appropriately experienced driver

trainers could be an appropriate mechanism for this type of training.

Indeed, a full-mission CMV driving simulator, when used by a trainee as

part of a certified CMV driver training program, has been shown to result

in equivalent levels of skill performance (Morgan, Tidwell, Medina, and

Blanco, 2011). More research is certainly called for in regards to the use

of CMV driving simulators for refresher defensive driver training.

An alternative explanation is that the simulator may not capture the

full nature of the driving task, leading to a performance decrement

between simulator and real-world driving. This effect has been noted in

comparisons of simulator and real-world driving (Morgan, Tidwell,

Medina, and Blanco, 2011). Unfortunately, the differences between

simulator and real-world driving are poorly understood. A myriad of

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factors, such as the type of simulator, the scenario being used, and

individual differences, may have an effect on the results of a simulator

study. Formal research investigating the differences in performance

between simulator and real-world driving is needed.

Future Steps in Commercial Motor Vehicle Driver Training

The proposed DOT regulations (72FR 73225, published December

26, 2007) address entry-level CMV driver training and set minimum

standards for the number of classroom hours (76 hours addressing issues

such as basic operation, safe operating practices, vehicle maintenance for a

Class- A CDL) and behind-the-wheel hours (44 hours addressing basic

operation, safe operating practices, and advanced operating practices with

a trainer supervising and providing feedback for a Class-A CDL) needed

prior to testing to obtain a CDL. Flowever, there are no current or

proposed regulations for refresher or defensive driver training for CMV

operators. It is common for drivers to be unaccustomed with certain

driving conditions (e.g., steep mountain grades, heavy snow, etc.) as

freight and commodities may require transport many miles from their

origin through different terrain and climates.

Additionally, commercial truck drivers may become habituated to

certain skills and tasks and develop inappropriate driving behaviors.

Although many truck carriers recognize this need for refresher and

defensive driver training, there are no guidelines for the design and

implementation of this type of training. The implementation of both

refresher and defensive driver training vary widely and can range from no

additional training provided, to additional training only after a safety

incident has occurred, or a yearly refresher/defensive driver training

requirement. As the results of this study highlighted, even million miler

drivers still responded inappropriately or not at all in approximately 30%

of the conditions. This suggests that these drivers, and in fact all drivers,

may benefit from additional training post-licensure.

A full-mission truck simulator, similar to the one used in this

project, can provide a valid tool for the implementation of either a

refresher or defensive driver training program. The use of a simulator can

provide for repeated training exposure of driving events and conditions for

the individual driver and between drivers to improve the transfer-of-

training, training efficiency, and safety of the training process. This allows

for situational training that would be impractical or unsafe to perform in a

real vehicle. The development of refresher training scenarios and topics.

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methodology, and implementation can be applied across all simulator

platforms and throughout the trucking industry to create a standardized

approach to this type of training.

References

Dugan, R. T. (2008, October 6). Training, turnover. [Letter to the editor].

Transportation Topics, p. 9.

Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). (1997). Final

regulatory evaluation: Entry-level driver training (Report No.

FMCSA- 1997-2 199- 15 8). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of

Transportation.

Howard, J., Zuckerman, A., Strah, T. M., and McNally, S. (2009, February

16). Trucking's growing job losses. Transport Topics, p. 6.

Morgan, J. F., Tidwell, S. A., Medina, A., and Blanco, M. (2011). On the

training and testing of entry-level commercial motor vehicle drivers.

Accident Analysis and Prevention, 43(4), 1400-1407.

Morgan, J. F., Tidwell, S. A., Medina, A., Blanco, M., Hickman, J. S., and

Hanowski, R. J. (2011). Commercial motor vehicle driving simulator

validation study: Phase //(Report No. FMCSA-RRR-1 1-014).

Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Transportation.

Pausch, R., Crea, T., and Conway, M. (1992). A literature survey for

virtual environments: Military flight simulator visual systems and

simulator sickness. Presence: Teleoperators and Virtual

Environments, 1, 344-363.

Robin, J. L., Knipling, R. R., Derrickson, M. L., Antonik, C., Tidwell, S.

A., and McFann, J. (2005b). Truck simulator validation (“SimVal”)

training effectiveness study. Proceedings of the 2005 Truck and Bus

Safety and Security Symposium (pp. 475-483). Alexandria, VA:

National Safety Council.

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Acknowledgments

This article is based upon a talk by the same title given by Justin

Morgan at the Potomac Chapter of the Human Factors and Ergonomics

Society’s mini-symposium held at the George Washington University

Center in Arlington, Virginia in conjunction with the Washington

Academy of Sciences’ Capital Science 2012 event March 31, 2012.

The research was completed as part of a contract awarded from the

U.S. DOT Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), CMV

Driving Simulator Validation Study (SimVal): Phase II (DTNH22-05-

01019, Task Order #9). The authors wish to thank Mr. Olu Ajayi, the

FMCSA technical liaison for this project, for his guidance and advice

throughout the project.

Bios

Justin F. Morgan, Ph.D., is a Senior Research Associate with the

Virginia Tech Transportation Institute’s Automated Vehicle Systems

group. His research is focused on training, workload, driver-vehicle

interfaces, and how these issues relate to driver performance and safety.

Scott A. Tidwell is a Senior Field Research Technician with the Virginia

Tech Transportation Institute’s Automated Vehicle Systems group. His

research is focused on driver training, heavy vehicles, simulation, driver-

vehicle interfaces, and how these issues relate to driver performance and

safety.

Myra Blanco, Ph.D., is a Research Scientist and serves as Leader of the

Automated Vehicle Systems Group at the Virginia Tech Transportation

Institute. Her research is focused on evaluation of in-vehicle devices,

distraction, driver behavior, training, work/rest cycles, fatigue, and active

safety systems for light and heavy vehicles.

Alejandra Medina-Flinstch, MSE, is a Senior Research Associate with

the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute and an international consultant.

At Virginia Tech, she has directed applied research projects in the areas of

safety, transportation infrastructure, and intelligent transportation systems.

Richard J. Hanowski, Ph.D., is a Senior Research Scientist at the

Virginia Tech Transportation Institute and serves as the Director of the

Center for Truck and Bus Safety. His research is focused on driver

behavior and driving performance in heavy vehicle operations.

Spring 2013

Washington Academy of Sciences

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Springs of Washington, D.C.: A Tale of Urbanization

John M. Sharp, Jr.

The University of Texas at Austin

Abstract

Washington, D.C., once utilized springs and shallow wells as its

principal water resources, but as these sources became contaminated,

the city switched to treated surface waters. The small streams and most

springs were buried by subsequent construction or covered

intentionally for health reasons. With the water table now well below

the land surface, spring flows ceased. Some streams were converted to

storm sewers, and few spring locations were preserved. In some cases,

their sites can be inferred from historical records, subtle topographic

indications, or from building features indicating past topographic lows.

However, the shallow hydrogeological system still operates under the

city’s veneer of roads, parking lots, parks, and buildings. In addition,

swamps, tidal marshes, and wetlands have been filled- in to provide

land for construction, roadways, and parks. This buried geology and

hydrology should be considered in the development of Washington,

D.C., and any city.

Introduction

In 1629, Captain John Smith described the future site of

Washington, D.C., as a “country is not mountainous, nor yet low, but such

pleasant plaine hills, and fertile valleys, one prettily crossing another, and

watered so conveniently with fresh brooks and springs, no lesse

commodious, then delightsome” (Smith, 1629). Until 150 years ago,

springs and shallow-dug wells were the main source of drinking water to

residents of Washington, D.C. Now Washington has the many amenities

and all the advantages and disadvantages of a modem city. Its shallow

geology and hydrology have been drastically altered by more than two

centuries of development. In 2012, the Geological Society of Washington

sponsored a field trip (Sharp, 2012) that examined sites of the “fresh

brooks and springs” that originally made this area attractive for settlement.

This paper is based upon that field trip, which was, in turn, generally

based upon Williams (1977), who, in celebration of the nation’s

bicentennial, examined changes in water supply and water courses since

1776. He examined old newspaper files to determine the location of the

city’s springs.

Mankind is now one of the major agents affecting the Earth’s

biology, geology, and hydrology. Washington, D.C., is not unique in

demonstrating how mankind and, especially, urbanization changes our

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environment. With global population pushing towards 9 billion and with

the majority living in cities, we need to assess how the urban systems

evolve and how we can best utilize ecosystem resources. Below, a brief

discussion of the general effects of urbanization is followed by a review of

the loss of streams and springs in other cities. This is followed by a focus

on Washington’s lost streams and springs, in particular.

General Effects of Urbanization

Urbanization is one of the major geomorphic, hydrologic, and

geological processes shaping the Earth (Sherlock, 1922; Chilton, 1997;

Underwood, 2001; Brabec, 2009; Hibbs and Sharp, 2012). The general

effects of urbanization include a number of factors discussed in this

section.

Leveling the land surface for buildings, roads, parking lots,

etc.: This includes filling low areas, such as stream channels, tidal

marshes, swamps, and wetlands (Sherlock, 1922; Williams, 1977; Sharp,

2010, 2012). In the past, small streams may have been covered for reasons

of the public health, whereas today we seek to remediate them.

Commonly, many of the older cities of the world are built on top of their

predecessors.

Introducing new sources of air, surface-water, and

groundwater contamination (Chilton, 1997; Hibbs and Sharp, 2012;

Kelly et al., 2012; Wong et al., 2012): Leaky underground storage tanks,

abandoned factories, abandoned dumps, broken or leaky sewer lines or

other pipelines, illegal waste disposal, vehicular exhaust, power plant

emissions, and accidental spills have occurred and will continue to occur.

The buried alluvial channels and subsurface utility systems provide

permeable pathways that significantly transport contaminants and efforts

for remediation.

Altering the local (and perhaps regional) climate including the

urban “heat island effect” and changes in patterns of precipitation

(Taylor and Stefan, 2009; Bhaskar and Welty, 2012): Cities are hotter than

the surrounding rural lands because of the thermal effects of buildings and

pavements. In some cases (e.g., Chicago described by Changnon, 1976),

this has been observed to increase thunderstorms in the prevailing

downwind direction.

Installing a network or reticulation of subsurface conduits,

tunnels, and utility lines (Sharp etal., 2003; Sharp, 2010): This creates:

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• zones of enhanced permeability, often by many orders ot

magnitude;

• a highly anisotropic and heterogeneous permeability field; and

• enhanced shallow secondary porosity and water storage

(essentially an epikarst).

This makes it difficult to predict the direction of contaminant transport and

makes remediation equally difficult or perhaps impossible. These high

permeability paths can alter local natural flow systems and pirate spring

flows or produce new areas of groundwater discharge. The network can

also serve to control the water table elevation or, when the water and

sewage lines leak, provide enhanced groundwater recharge.

Landscaping roadways, sidewalks, parking areas, and roofs

(Moglen, 2009): These areas are commonly termed “impervious cover.”

However, secondary permeability can be significant so that groundwater

recharge is enhanced (Wiles and Sharp, 2008). In addition, we do not

prefer to drive through water; therefore parking lots and roads have storm

drains. These are internal drainage systems that flow through conduits to

urban streams (essentially a karst landscape).

Compacting natural soils (Pitt et aL, 2002): Vehicular and foot

traffic and construction consolidate natural soils that, in turn, often lowers

permeability.

Altering natural vegetation: This includes introducing non-native

vegetation; irrigating lawns, gardens, and parks; that affect

evapotranspiration, recharge, and stream flow (Passarello et aL, 2012).

Increasing groundwater recharge (Garcia-Fresca and Sharp,

2005; Hibbs and Sharp, 2012): It is commonly assumed that pavements

and impervious cover reduce groundwater recharge but the overwatering

of lawns, gardens, and parks combined with leaky water, sewage, and

storm drainage systems and planned artificial recharge systems {e.g.,

storm water detention ponds, soakways, drain fields, etc.), generally

increase groundwater recharge in cities above pre-urban conditions.

Causing more intense urban flooding (Leopold, 1968), but

perhaps maintaining low flows: For a given rain event, floods come

more quickly and have higher discharge than under pre-urban conditions

because of runoff from “impervious” cover and storm drains. On the other

hand, the sources of enhanced groundwater recharge listed above may

keep streams flowing in times of low rainfall. In fact, in some situations,

all streamflow may originally have been sourced from the city water

systems (Passarello et aL, 2012; Snatic et aL, 2012).

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Lowering water tables: This is due to the utility systems and

pumping systems needed to keep building foundations, basements,

underground parking garages, and metro lines dry.

Causing springs and streams to disappear (Barton, 1962;

Williams, 1977; Brick, 2009): This is the focus of this study. See Robert

Frost’s poem about a brook in a city in Appendix 1.

Disappearing Springs and Streams

The phenomenon of lost springs and streams is not unique to

Washington, D.C. In The Lost Rivers of London, Barton (1962) relates

how streams (many of which are featured in literature and poetry,

including the Fleet River, now Fleet Street) no longer exist. Brick (2009)

discusses canoeing in tunnels under St. Paul, Minnesota, which were once

surface streams. The Tank Stream in Sydney, Australia, the source of

drinking water for the early colonists, is now completely covered and has

been converted into a storm sewer (Merrick, 1998). Tours are given twice

yearly and there have been discussions on how to make this historic

stream a tourist attraction. In downtown Austin, Texas, Little Shoal Creek

is completely covered, and its presence only inferable by shallow dips in

street topography following the old maps. In the United States, Sanborn’s

19^^ century insurance maps are excellent reference sources for lost

streams.

Generally in past centuries, small streams became polluted by

sanitary practices that accompanied the growth of cities. The streams were

then covered over as a public health measure. Nevertheless, the alluvial

sediments of high permeability still exist and, as pointed out by O’Connor

et al. (1999), they still effectively transport water - and occasionally

contaminants. Additionally, periods when the water table becomes high,

geotechnical problems and flooding by groundwater also occur.

Streams of Old Washington

Maps in Millay (2005) and Williams (1977, reproduced as Figure 1

below) show the major streams and filled-in low-lying areas as they

existed in the late 1 century. There were over 80 streams in the city. In

the 1870s, the city buried the last of its creeks, with exception of Rock

Creek, which was saved by the decision to make it into a park. Prominent

buried streams included Tiber Creek, James Creek, Piney Branch, and

Slash Run, but these and others may still exist in some form, subsurface

(O’Connor et al., 1999; Millay, 2005). These were not all inconsequential

streams; Tiber Creek, for instance, which once flowed under the present

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Museum of Natural History, was a significant source of shad roe. The

alluvial sediments are still there. These alluvial channels still control

groundwater fiow patterns and should be considered in planning for storm

drainage or remediation of groundwater contamination.

Swamps, tidal marshes, and wetlands have been filled in partly

because of real or perceived health hazards, but more significantly to

provide solid land for new construction. Extensive areas along the

Potomac and Anacostia Rivers were reclaimed (see Figures 1 and 2).

Many roadways, parts of the National Mall, the Tidal Basin, and the

Jefferson Memorial are on filled lands. The recent repairs at the Jefferson

Memorial attest to some of the geotechnical issues that have since arisen.

O’Connor et al. (1999) also documented 11 smaller wetlands that were

covered over in the 19‘*^ century (see Table 1).

Figure 1. Williams’ (1977) map of Washington, D.C., streams in the late 18* century.

Only Rock Creek still exists as a stream. Also shown are areas that were filled in by

1974, and the canal running from Georgetown to south of the White House and southwest

of the Capitol, and then to the Anacostia River by the Navy Yard.

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Figure 2. The Capitol as seen from the marsh, Anacostia River. Photo by John K.

Hillers, n.d. (1880s).

Springs of Old Washington and the Springs Today

Williams also listed 38 springs of old Washington, D.C., and their

locations. These and their present situations are listed in Appendix 2.

Many of these were obtained from old newspaper accounts. Access to all

the sites was possible during my field reconnaissance in 2010 except for

those in areas currently under military jurisdiction (i.e., Smith Springs at

the McMillan Reservoir; Dunlop Spring at the U.S. Soldiers Home; and

the springs flowing into the Anacostia River at the Navy Yard). Only a

few springs still flow into Rock Creek, most are now well below the land

surface. The locations of some can be inferred from the recorded details of

their location, by topographic subtleties, and — because they flowed into

creeks and ravines (topographic lows) — building construction may

indicate these lows. Springs were the chief source of drinking water until

the Civil War, when river water began to be utilized. In the early 20^'^

century, a city water system replaced all the springs and shallow wells as

the drinking water source. Below are pictures showing the actual or

inferred sites of four of Washington D.C.’s springs listed by Williams:

Caffrey’s, Franklin Square, Capitol Hill, and Quarry Road Springs. Sharp

(2012) includes photos of most of the other spring sites listed by Williams.

There were other springs in and around the District, including Silver

Spring (Maryland), also shown below, and in the National Arboretum.

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Finally, there were many other now extinct springs not listed by Williams,

such as along today’s Spring Road leading into Piney Creek Park.

Table 1. 19^^Century Buried Wetlands (provided courtesy of Will Logan

and the late Jim O’Connor)

Wetland (Type) Watershed Location

Caffrey’s Spring (Figure 3) was also called Hotel, Bumes, St.

Patrick’s, and Federal Spring. The lowest point of the intersection of 9th

and F Streets NW is the northwest comer, which is the spring’s location.

Franklin Square Spring (Figure 4) in Franklin Square was one of a set of

springs in this general area. It was abandoned as a water supply early in

the 20^^ century because of contamination.

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Figure 3. Caffrey’s Spring was at the northwest corner of 9* and F Streets, NW. This is

the lowest part of the intersection today. This spring was used until 1 870.

Figure 4. Franklin Square Spring in an originally marshy ground with a number of

springs that provided water to the White House and the Departments of State, War, Navy,

and Treasury from 1832 to 1906. The orifice is inferred to have been in the lowest

bricked area behind the fountain.

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47

Some springs are more clearly identified. Capitol Mill Spring

(Figure 5) is located in a brick gazebo northwest of the Capitol, and

probably provided water for early congresses. The orifice is now well

below ground. This spring would have flowed into Tiber Creek.

Figure 5. Capitol Hill Spring, northwest of the Capitol near Pennsylvania Avenue. The

orifice is now well beneath the land surface. Presumably, this once served the Congress.

Figure 6 shows Quarry Road Spring, which once flowed into the

east (left) bank of Rock Creek. The orifice location now hosts a storm

sewer outlet. The sign in the background reads: “WARNING! Sewage.

Avoid contact with water after rain.”

Silver Spring (Figure 7), Maryland, is another prime example of

how urbanization affects springs. The orifice can be located because of the

spring’s historical significance, but it is now well below (1-2 m) the

ground surface. The stream to which it once flowed no longer exists. It is

buried, but might be inferable from mapping land surface elevations. The

spring no longer flows, but there is occasionally water present. However,

it is hard to discern if this is natural spring flow or just outflow from the

city water system.

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Figure 6. Quarry Road Spring, east bank of Rock Creek, now issues from a storm sewer.

In May 2010, there was discharge from the site, but how much of this was storm water or

sewage flow is unknown. In May 2012, there was no flow.

Figure 7. Silver Spring, Maryland, was named for this spring that is on land once owned

by the Blairs, prominent politicians in the Lincoln years. The spring was named for the

glittering mica flakes in the sunlight where the spring bubbled out of the ground. The

stream into which the spring discharged is covered. There is a grate at the bottom near the

spring, and the spring doesn’t flow. The spring orifice is probably still locatable only

because of its historical significance.

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Conclusions

The role and effects of urbanization on small streams and springs

seem universal. Leveling of the land surface and fdling of low areas,

including wetlands, is the general rule. Consequently small streams and

springs become buried and perhaps forgotten. Most of the Washington,

D.C., streams are buried and few, if any, of the springs continue to flow.

Some streams have been converted to storm drains. Sump pumps and

drainage systems keep water tables low even if urban recharge increases.

But the sediments and flow systems still exist in the subsurface. As urban

expansion continues, we should consider how springs and small streams

can contribute to the urban environment and perhaps as local water

resources for other uses.

Appendix 1

A Brook in the City

A poem by Robert Frost

The farmhouse lingers, though averse to square

With a new city street it has to wear

A number in. But what about the brook

That held the house as in an elbow-crook?

I ask as one who knew the brook, its strength

And impulse, having dipped a finger length

And made it leap my knuckle, having tossed

A flower to try its currents where they crossed.

The meadow grass could be cemented down

From growing under pavements of a town;

The apple trees be sent to hearthstone flame

Is water wood to serve a brook the same?

Flow else dispose of an immortal force

No longer needed? Stamped it at its source

With cinder loads dumped down? The brook was thrown

Deep in a sewer dungeon under stone

In fetid darkness still to live and run -

And all for nothing it had ever done.

Except forget to go in fear perhaps.

No one would know except for ancient maps

That such a brook ran water. But I wonder

If from its being forever under.

The thoughts may not have risen that so keep

This new-built city from both work and sleep.

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Appendix 2

Washington, D.C., Area Springs

(Modified from Williams, 1977)

Photographs of many of these sites are included in Sharp (2012).

The first 38 springs are listed by Williams, but there are and certainly were

many more in the Washington, D.C., area.

1. Smith Springs (also called Congressional or Effingham) at site

of McMillan Reservoir. Access is restricted. This is still a waterworks for

DC. Three springs discharged 7, 4.5, and 3 gallons per minute (gpm), and

were considered the most important of the city’s springs. From 1832 to

1905, they supplied water to the Capitol and Treasury Department

buildings. Access is difficult.

2. City (Ridge), north of C Street, between 4 Vi and 6**’ Streets,

NW. The best guess for the spring orifice is in the low garden area south

of the Courthouse. It was used from about 1802 to at least 1900.

3. Caffrey’s (also called Hotel, Burnes, St. Patrick’s, Federal),

northwest corner of 9**^ and F Streets, NW. This is the lowest part of the

intersection today. The spring was used until 1870. (Site photo is Figure

3.)

4. City Hall, northwest corner of 5^*’ and D Streets, NW. The

spring orifice location is inferred from the lower floor elevation and

inferences about the previous topography from building construction. The

ramps down to the bottom floors of the buildings suggest that they were

constructed near a stream valley.

5. Franklin Square. This was originally low and marshy ground

with a number of springs, which provided water to the White House and

the Departments of State, War, Navy, and Treasury from 1832 to 1906.

The orifice is inferred to have been in the low area behind the fountain.

(Site photo is Figure 4.)

6. 13th and K Streets. This spring is completely covered; no

evidence of it exists. It may have been located under the old Franklin

School.

7. Gibson (also called Cool, Young, Stodderts, Federal), 15“^ and

E Streets, NE. This spring housed an ice house until 1959. A local

resident with whom I chatted related that the ice house burned down in the

late 1950s, and that the spring would have been located under the

apartment complex now covering the site.

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8. Capitol Hill, northwest of the Capitol near Pennsylvania

Avenue. This pleasant brick building surrounds and is adjacent to the pit

that presumably was the spring’s orifice, which is now well beneath the

land surface. Presumably this spring once served the Congress. (Site photo

is Figure 5.)

9. Spring Garden, south side of canal, west of Street, NW.

Looking east across the Mall from the National Gallery of Art, the

location — which is still a relatively low area in this portion of the Mall --

would have been slightly to the southeast from the main entrance. It would

have been adjacent to the canal shown on Figure 1. The canal lock

keeper’s house still stands on Constitution Avenue.

10. Carroll, New Jersey and Virginia Avenues, SE. This was a

group of springs and it is difficult to infer their precise location, but the

old canal is clearly visible here. Along the canal are manhole covers into

the sewer lines that are buried along the old canal route. The D.C. Police

also stable horses here.

11. Pennsylvania Avenue and 24^^ Street, south of the Library of

Congress. Several springs here once gave rise to a small tributary of

James Creek. The springs are completely covered and no evidence of them

exists.

th

12. Intersection of North Carolina Avenue, D Street, and 34

Street, SE. This is in Folger Park. There are several disused fountains in

the park that may have discharged spring waters at one time.

13. Gales (Eckington), northeast of the intersection of C* Street

and Florida Avenue, NE. The spring location is inferred to have been at

the lowest part of the intersection.

14. Reedbirds Hill, N. Capitol Street, and M Street.“...[A] spring of

clear and cool water that often quenched the thirst of blackberry hunters

and others ...” (Williams, 1977, p. 5) There is a garden area at this

location.

15. Dunlop, just east of the U.S. Soldiers Home. Access was

restricted, but the spring is inferred to be at the pond along the creek

flowing to the east on the map at the visitor center. This spring may have

supplied Lincoln’s drinking water during the summer, as he and his family

spent time here to escape the D.C. summer heat. Access is restricted.

16. Right bank of Anacostia River between C Streets, N. and S.

Navy Yard. Access is restricted.

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17. Post Office, northwest corner of 7**’ and E Streets, NW. The

orifice location is inferred from the lower floor elevation as was noted for

City Hall Spring.

18. Leech, New York Avenue between 5^** and 6*** Streets, NW. An

early physician kept his leeches in this spring. The spring is completely

covered and no evidence of it exists, but is probably beneath the parking

lot. There is a deep manhole with a grate that may be located over the

stream that was fed by this spring.

19. Blue House, on 10**’ Street, between K Street and

Massachusetts Avenue, NW. The orifice location is inferred from the

lower floor elevation as was noted for City Hall Spring.

20. Willow (Willow Tree), north of L Street, between 4*** and S**’

Streets, NW. This spring fed a “prominent stream” that flowed into Tiber

Creek and was inferred to be at the low spot in the topography. In May

2012, this site was covered over for a new condominium complex and its

location cannot be inferred.

21. Southeast of the intersection of 10**’ and M Streets, NW. The

spring is completely covered and no evidence of it exists.

22. Massachusetts Avenue, between 15**’ and lb*** Streets, NW. The

spring, which flowed into Slash Run, is inferred to be at this lowest spot in

the topography underneath the grates covering the building’s utility

systems. Jefferson is said to have contemplated this spring as a source of

water to the White House.

23. Southside of Rhode Island Avenue, east of Connecticut

Avenue, NW. The spring is covered, but is inferred to be at the statue.

24. Brown’s, north of Florida Avenue, between 14**’ and 15**’

Streets, NW. This spring produced a “sizable stream” that flowed into

Slash Run. It is inferred to be at this lowest spot in the topography under

the grates covering the buildings utility systems.

25. 18**’ Street, near Boundary Street (Florida Avenue), NW. The

spring is inferred to be at the lowest spot in the topography. As noted for

City Hall Springs, some of the buildings have ramps/steps down to the

first floor.

26. 13**’ Street, near Florida Avenue, NW. The spring is inferred to

be at the lowest point of the intersection.

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27. Moore’s, vicinity of Florida Avenue and ll**" Street, NW. This

was the origin of one of the branches to 'fiber Creek. The spring is

completely covered and no evidence of it exists, but again is inferred to be

under the grates. However, the Florida Avenue Grill is a great breakfast

stop ... watching the cook work the griddle is a highlight of a Sunday

morning excursion in D.C.

28. Street between Florida Avenue and Euclid Street, NW, on

the grounds of Cardozo High School. The spring is completely covered,

and no evidence of it exists. There is a garden on the east side of the high

school, but it appears to be too high topographically for a spring location.

29. Head of Reedy Branch, near 13‘^ and Harvard Streets, NW.

The spring is completely covered, and no evidence of it exists.

th

30. Janies White, near the northwest corner of 16 and Ingraham

Streets, NW. This is a nice park area, but the spring is completely covered

and no evidence of it exists.

th

31. Octagon House, northeast corner of 18 Street and New York

Avenue, NW. No trace of the spring exists.

32. Easby’s Point, just east of the Kennedy Center. The spring may

have been in the vicinity of the Center’s underground parking garage.

33. Virginia Avenue between 26**’ and 27**’ Streets, NW. No trace of

this spring now exists.

34. East bank of Rock Creek near K Street, NW, near the

Thompson Boat Center. This spring provided Georgetown residents their

best drinking water after the K Street Bridge was constructed in 1792. In

May 2010, there was discharge from the spring site. How much of this

was storm water flow is unknown. In May 2012, there was no flow. There

are some interesting displays on the past and future of the herring fishery

in Rock Creek.

35. P and 22"** Streets, NW, east bank of Rock Creek. “Reportedly a

favorite spot for courting couples.” (Williams, 1977, p. 4) There is a brick

outflow from a storm sewer that marks the location.

36. Quarry Road, east bank of Rock Creek. In May 2010, there was

discharge from the spring site. How much of this was storm water or

sewage flow is unknown. In May 2012, there was no flow. (Site photo is

Figure 6.)

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37. Pierce Mill, on Tilden Street west of Rock Creek. The old spring

house still exists. It was built in 1801 around the spring for use as a

cooling place of dairy products. The streamcourse to which the spring

flowed can be discerned, but there is no stream now.

38. Corner of Wisconsin Avenue and Q Street, NW, in

Georgetown. “Waters eroded a ravine southward to the Potomac.”

(Williams, 1977, p. 4) The spring is completely covered and no evidence

of it or the ravine exists.

The above 38 springs were listed by Williams to which I only add

two noteworthy springs -Silver Spring (#39) in Maryland and the springs

at the National Arboretum (#40). Others could be added.

39. Silver Spring, Maryland. This D.C. suburb is the name for this

spring that is on land once owned by Francis and Montgomery Blair,

prominent politicians in the Tincoln years. It is located next to the acorn-

shaped gazebo. Silver Spring was named because of the glittering of the

mica flakes in the sunlight where the spring bubbled out of the ground.

The stream to which the spring discharged is covered. There is a grate at

the bottom near the spring, and the spring doesn’t flow. Clearly, the spring

orifice is still preserved because of its historical significance. The

historical plaque reads “In 1842, Francis Blair built a country house near

this park and divided his time between [this site]... and his city residence

“Blair House,” which is now the President’s official guest house in

Washington, D.C. ...” (Site photo is Figure 7.)

40. The springs at the National Arboretum, off Springhouse Road,

just south of New York Avenue. There are two beautiful spring houses

with conical roofs at this location. The springs were used for drinking

water and also washing clothes. The water levels are now below the

ground surface and can be measured in the standing wells in the spring

houses. There are no evident discrete points of discharge to the nearby

stream (which hosted beavers in 2010).

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References

Barton, N. J., 1962, The Lost Rivers of London: Historical Publications, Ltd., New

Barnet, Herts., United Kingdom, 148pp.

Bhaskar, A. S., and Welty, C., 2012, Water Balances along an Urban-to-Rural Gradient

of Metropolitan Baltimore, 2001-2009, Environmental & Engineering Geoscience,

V. 18, no. 1, p. 37-50, doi: 10.21 13/gseegeosci. 18.1.

Brabec, E. A., 2009, Imperviousness and land-use policy: Toward an effective approach

to watershed planning. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, v. 14, no. 4, p. 425-433.

Brick, G., 2009, Subterranean Twin Cities: University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis,

Minnesota, 223pp.

Changnon, S. A., Jr., 1976, Inadvertent weather modification. Water Resources Bulletin,

V. 12, p. 695-718.

Chilton, J. (ed.), 1997, Groundwater in the Urban Environment: Problems, Processes

and Management. Proceedings of the 27th Congress, International Association of

Hydrogeologists, Balkema, Rotterdam, v. 1, 682pp.

Frost, R., 1923, New Hampshire: A Poem With Notes and Grace Notes, Henry Holt and

Company, New York, New York, first edition, 1 13pp.

Garcia-Fresca, B., and Sharp, J. M., Jr., 2005, Hydrogeologic considerations of urban

development - Urban-induced recharge: in Humans as Geologic Agents (Ehlen, J.,

Haneberg, W. C., and Larson, R. A., eds.) Geological Society of America, Reviews

in Engineering Geology, v. XVI, p. 123-136.

Hibbs, B. J., and Sharp, J. M., Jr., 2012, Hydrogeological impacts of urbanization.

Environmental and Engineering Geoscience, v. 18, no. 1, p. 3-24,

doi: 10.21 13/gseegeosci. 18. 1.3

Johnston, P. M. 1964. Geology and groundwater resources of Washington, D.C., and

vicinity: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 1776, 96pp.

Kelly, W. R., Panno, S. V., and Hackley, K. C., 2012, Impacts of Road Salt Runoff on

Water Quality of the Chicago, Illinois, Region, Environmental and Engineering

Geoscience, v. 1 8, no. 1 , p. 65-8 1 .

Leopold, L. B., 1968, Hydrology for urban land planning: a guidebook on the hydrologic

effects of urban land use: U. S. Geological Survey Circular 554, 18pp.

Merrick, N. P., 1998, Glimpses of history: Evolution of groundwater levels and usage in

the Botany Basin: in McNally, G., and Jankowski, J. (eds.): Collected Case Studies

in Engineering Geology, Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology (Fourth Series):

Environmental Geology of the Botany Basin, Conference Publications, Springwood,

NSW, Australia, p. 230-242.

Millay, C. A., 2005, Restoring the Lost Rivers of Washington: Can a City’s Hydrologic

Past Inform Its Future?: unpublished Landscape Architecture thesis, Virginia

Polytechnic Institute and State University, Alexandria, Virginia, 35pp.

Moglen, G. E., 2009, Hydrology and impervious areas. Journal of Hydrologic

Engineering, v. 14, p. 303-304.

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O'Connor, J. V., Bekele, J., and Logan, W. S., 1999, Forgotten city buried streams create

hydro havoc; current District of Columbia experience: Geological Society of

America, Abstracts with Programs (annual meeting), v. 31, no. 7, p. 156.

Passarello, M. C., Sharp, J. M., Pierce, S. A., 2012, Estimating Urban-Induced Artificial

Recharge; A case study for Austin, TX. Environmental and Engineering Geoscience,

V. 18, p. 25-36.

Pitt, R., Chen, S. E., Clark, S., and Ong, C. K., 2002, Urbanization factors affecting

infiltration: in Ground Water/Surface Water Interactions, American Water Resources

Association, Summer Specialty Conference, p. 181-186.

Sharp, J. M. Jr., 2010, The impacts of urbanization on groundwater systems and recharge;

Aqua Mundi, v. 1, p. 51-56, doi 10.44409/Am-004- 10-0008.

Sharp, J. M., Jr., 2012, Springs of Washington DC - A Tale of Urbanization: Geological

Society of Washington Spring Field Trip Guidebook, 31pp.

Sharp, J. M., Jr., Krothe, J., Mather, J. D., Garcia-Fresca, B., and Stewart, C. A., 2003,

Effects of Urbanization on Groundwater Systems: in Earth Sciences in the City

(Heiken, G., Fakundiny, R., and Suter, J., eds.). Am. Geophysical Union,

Washington, D.C., Ch. 9, p. 257-278.

Sherlock, R. L., 1922, Man as a Geological Agent: FI. F. & G. Witherby, London, 372pp.

Smith, J., 1629, The True Travels, Adventures and Observations of Captaine John Smith:

Franklin Press, Richmond, Virginia, 1819, v. 1, reprinted London edition of 1629.

Snatic, J. W., Sharp, J. M., Jr., and Banner, J. L., 2012, Identification of groundwater

recharge sources contributing to urban stream base flow in Austin, Texas: Geo. Soc.

America, Abs. with Programs (Annual Meeting), v. 44, no. 7, p. 356.

Taylor, C. A., and Stefan, H. G., 2009, Shallow groundwater temperature response to

climate change and urbanization, Journal of Hydrology, v. 375, no. 3-4, p. 601-612.

Underwood, J. R., Jr., 2001, Anthropic rocks as a fourth basic class. Environmental and

Engineering Geoscience, v. 7, p. 104-1 10.

Wiles, T. J., and Sharp, J. M., Jr., 2008, The secondary permeability of impervious cover.

Environmental and Engineering Geoscience, v. 14, no. 4, p. 251-265.

Williams, G. P., 1977, Washington, D.C. ’s vanishing springs and waterways: U.S.

Geological Survey Circular 752, 19pp.

Wong, C. L, Sharp, J. M., Jr., FJauwert, N., Landrum, J., and White, K. M., 2012, Impact

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429-434, doi: 10.21 13/gselements.8.6.429.

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Acknowledgements

I thank the U.S. Geological Survey for hosting me on my faculty

research leave from The University of Texas in 2010; Will Togan for the

list of 19 century buried wetlands; Sandy Neuzil and the Geological

Society of Washington for arranging the 2012 field trip in D.C.; and

especially the study (and labor of love) by Gar Williams that led me and

hopefully will lead the reader to visit our vanished springs and think about

what still lies beneath our feet in Washington, D.C., or the city of your

choice.

Bio

John M. (Jack) Sharp, Jr. is the Carlton Professor of Geology at

The University of Texas; he has served as president of the Geological

Society of America. His research interests include the effects of

urbanization on groundwater systems and the hydrogeology of fractured

rock systems, karst, and sedimentary basins.

Spring 2013

Washington Academy of Sciences

59

Outgoing President’s Remarks

James Cole

The Washington Academy of Sciences has had another successful

year, and I want to thank all of the members of the board and our journal

editors for their continued efforts throughout the year. I also want to thank

Peg Kay, former president and executive director, for her assistance during

this transition year of her retirement.

One of our successes this year was instituting the availability of

online board meetings for the Academy, increasing participation at our

board meetings. I would estimate that typically each month four board

members who may not have been able to attend in person were able to

attend via the web.

We had a successful year with our programs:

Our October symposium. Pediatric Cancer in the 21st Century:

Harnessing Science to Improve Outcomes, was moderated by the world-

renowned director of Texas Children’s Cancer Center, Dr. David Poplack.

In December we held our annual Science is Murder program which

is always fun. A BBC radio reporter, Jane O’Brien, attended and

interviewed Peg Kay, myself, and several of the authors. This resulted in a

short announcement of our event, and discussion our new imprint of

science validity - which was later broadcast to an audience of

approximately 120 million listeners! It was followed up by a web post by

BBC.

Tonight [May 15, 2013], for the Academy’s annual meeting, we

heard an excellent talk here at the American Association for the

Advancement of Science by Dr. James Mercer on “Alternatives for

Managing the Nation’s Complex Contaminated Groundwater Sites.”

A special thank you is reserved for the Academy’s board member

Dick Davies who manages the activities of the Junior Academy with great

success.

This year I worked closely with our incoming president Jim

Egenrieder, and I expect an exceptionally smooth transition to his

administration.

I would also like to thank my wife, Diane, for her support during

this past year.

Spring 2013

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Incoming President’s Remarks

James Egenrieder

I’m honored to serve as President of the Washington Academy of

Sciences for 2013-2014 term.

It’s my hope that - with the help of my colleagues on the Board of

Managers, the active engagement of our Committee leaders and

volunteers, and the support of our members and affiliate societies - we

will continue to advance the mission of the Academy, but also continue to

refine its image for this second decade of the 2 1 st century.

I want to promote an Academy that is agile and responsive to

issues of science in our region, available for partnerships and

collaborations with a broad representation of the community, and

representative of its current and future membership. In particular, I want to

advance and highlight the excellent outreach work of our Junior Academy

in local science and engineering fairs, expos and festivals.

During the next year I hope to fully document Academy

procedures and processes; identify or build technologies that make those

processes the most efficacious; reduce the administrative burdens of our

volunteers; and emphasize the interests, talents, and professional

achievements of our members and allies.

I envision we’ll be equally earnest in our efforts to: build

allegiances with university partners, develop new student groups, identify

interesting speakers, presentations and demonstrations, and help create

media and forums for all those in the National Capital Region who strive

to understand what, how, and why things are the way they are.

In less than a year, we’ll again host Capital Science 2014

(CapScil4), in which we’ll feature the research and explorations of our

members and affiliate societies.

I hope that you will all be willing share ideas and suggestions for

strategies that help the Academy overcome the challenges faced by so

many other professional societies and fraternal groups not able to adapt to

a modern, global, technological information-age.

Most importantly, of course, is for each of you to be on the lookout

for new members, new affiliates, and certainly those worthy of recognition

through our Academy’s awards and Fellowship.

Washington Academy of Sciences

61

I hope that everyone who hears this (or perhaps reads these words

in our excellent Journal publication), will consider this an invitation to get

involved, re-involved, or reach out in new directions that represent the

Academy well.

Thank you for your continued involvement in the Academy.

Spring 2013

62

The Washington Academy Sciences

2013 Officers and Board of Managers

Left to right: Paul Arveson, Jeff Plescia, Richard Hill, Neal Schmeidler,

Ron Hietala, Jim Cole, Terrell Erickson, Jim Egenrieder, Dick Davies,

Frank Haig, and Mike Cohen

Missing: Sethanne Howard, Catherine With, Sally Rood

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Journal of the

WASHINGTON

ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Volume 99

Number 2

Summer 2013

MCZ

MR'

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r 1/

UNI

: J

I Y

Board of Discipline Editors ii

Editor’s Comments 5!. Rood. iii

A Conceptual Framework for Biomonitoring and Biological Buffer Zones

S. J. Biondo 1

Newton’s Rotating Water Bucket: A Simple Model C. E. Mungan and

T C. Lipscomde 15

An Examination of Historical and Current Laws Governing Leporids

K. GUcrease 25

Coiled Tubing Operations May Offer Paradigm Shift in Humanitarian

Logistics A. Sinha 43

Membership Application 63

Instructioste'lo Authors 64

Affiliated Institutions 65

Affiliated Societies and Delegates 66

ISSN 0043-0439

Issued Quarterly at Washington DC

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The Journal of the Washington Academy of

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The Journal \s the official organ of the Academy.

It publishes articles on science policy, the history

of science, critical reviews, original science

research, proceedings of scholarly meetings of

its Affiliated Societies, and other items of interest

to its members. It is published quarterly. The last

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Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences

(ISSN 0043-0439)

Published by the Washington Academy of

Sciences (202) 326-8975

Email: iournal@washacadsci.orn

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Journal of the

WASHINGTON

ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Volume 99 Number 2 Summer 2013

Contents

Board of Discipline Editors ii

Editor’s Comments S. Rood iii

A Conceptual Framework for Detecting, Monitoring, and Limiting the

Transport of Pollution from Anthropogenic Sources with Biomonitoring and

Biological Buffer Zones to Conserve Biological Diversity and Prevent

Adverse Effects S. J. Biondo 1

Newton’s Rotating Water Bucket: A Simple Model C. E. Mimgan and

T. C. Lipscombe 15

An Examination of Historical and Current Laws Governing Leporids

K. Gilcrease 25

Coiled Tubing Operations May Offer Paradigm Shift in Humanitarian

Logistics A. Sinha 43

Membership Application 63

Instructions to Authors 64

Affiliated Institutions 65

Affiliated Societies and Delegates 66

ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington DC

Summer 2013

11

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences

Editor Sally A. Rood, PhD sallv.rood@cox.net

Board of Discipline Editors

The Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences has a 12-member

Board of Discipline Editors representing many scientific and technical

fields. The members of the Board of Discipline Editors are affiliated with

a variety of scientific institutions in the Washington area and beyond -

government agencies such as the National Institute of Standards and

Technology (NIST); universities such as George Mason University

(GMU); and professional associations such as the Institute of Electrical

and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).

Anthropology

Astronomy

Biology/Biophysics

Botany

Chemistry

Computer Sciences

Environmental Natural

Sciences

Health

I listory of Medicine

Physics

Science Education

Systems Science

Emanuela Appetiti eappetiti@hotmail.com

Sethanne Howard sethanneh@msn.com

Eugenie Mielczarek mielczar@phvsics.gmu.edu

Mark Holland maholland@salisburv.edu

Deana Jaber diaber@marvmount.edu

Kent Miller kent.i.miller@alumni.cmu.edu

1 errell Erickson terrell.ericksonl @wdc. nsda.gov

Robin Stombler rstombler@auburnstrat.com

Alain Touwaide atouwaide@hotmail.com

Katherine Gebbie gebbie@nist.gov

Jim Egenrieder iim@deeDwater.org

Elizabeth Corona elizabethcorona@gmail.com

Washington Academy of Sciences

Ill

Editor’s Comments

Our first paper in this issue, by Samuel Biondo, introduces an

“intriguing” biomonitoring but'fer concept that expands on the concept ot

multiple buffer zones to block the transport of pollution from external

sources. The concept is based on proven elements, but has not been

reported or even discussed in the open literature yet. The paper offers

suggestions for proof-of-concept testing in hopes it will provide

motivation for conducting field trials.

The second paper by Carl Mungan and Trevor Lipscombe,

“Newton’s Rotating Water Bucket,” presents a lucid explanation of the

not-so-obvious subtleties underlying Newton’s classic rotating water

bucket.

Third, Kelsey Gilcrease examines historical and current laws

governing leporids — rabbits and hares — which are usually assumed to

be abundant! Some populations in North America, however, are declining.

This interesting study examined 19^’’ century wildlife laws regarding these

animals in the United States to provide a historical baseline for improving

our modern-day conservation efforts on their behalf.

Our final paper of the issue, “Coiled Tubing Operations May Offer

Paradigm Shift in Humanitarian Logistics” by Apoorva Sinha is a

fascinating concept piece revealing how a group of young innovators are

currently exploring the technical feasibility and organizational

sustainability of their new business venture called “TOHL” for Tubing

Operations for Humanitarian Logistics. TOHL is a start-up non-profit

based on a logistical innovation that is a departure from the conventional

methods of using disaster-affected roads and bridges for aid delivery. The

paper presents some of the background, decision-making, and analyses

that have been involved in their creative undertaking.

Lastly; In a previous issue, I acknowledged the assistance of

students from the excellent Science Communication Graduate Program at

George Mason University (GMU). This time around. I’d like to thank

Lance Schmeidler who is affiliated with that program as both faculty and

staff. His super ideas have helped our Journal make progress and contacts

that are sure to offer useful contributions over time. We look fonvard to

continuing to work with Lance and his colleagues at GMU.

Sally A. Rood, PhD, Editor

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences

Summer 2013

Washington Academy of Sciences

1

A Conceptual Framework for Detecting, Monitoring,

and Limiting the Transport of Pollution from

Anthropogenic Sources with Biomonitoring and

Biological Buffer Zones to Conserve Biological

Diversity and Prevent Adverse Effects

Samuel J. Biondo, ScD

Washington Academy of Sciences Emeritus Fellow

Abstract

Biomonitoring is a well established scientific discipline and various

types of buffer zones have been widely used for several decades.

However, those practices have not yet been combined to create an

effective biological system for detecting, monitoring, and limiting the

transport of pollution from anthropogenic sources to conserve

biological diversity and prevent adverse effects. This is a concept

paper. It presents a multi-zone biomonitoring buffer concept to achieve

the stated goals. Proof of concept testing is discussed.

Biomonitoring

Biomomtoring has been practiced for more than 100 years.

Biomonitoring can be used to detect and monitor the temporal, spatial, and

cumulative effects of different pollutants in the ecosystem and detemiine

the potential for long-term harmful effects. A very wide range of species

and plant types have been studied as potential monitoring agents. Lichens,

fungi, tree bark and leaves of higher plants are commonly used to detect

the deposition, accumulation, and distribution of pollutants in the

environment. Sensitive plants may show visible effects of pollution long

before their effects can be observed on animals or materials. Plants have

been used to establish field monitoring networks in Europe, Canada, and

the United States. An example is the assessment of the effects of ozone

and atmospheric heavy metal deposition conducted through the pan-

European biomonitoring program operating according to a common

protocol, viz., in the framework of the International Cooperative

Programme on Effects of Air Pollution on Natural Vegetation and crops

(ICP- Vegetation) under the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary

Air Pollution (CLRTAP).^

Biomonitoring has many advantages but it requires sophisticated

applications. The use of indicator plants may obviate the necessity of

Summer 2013

expensive equipment but applications require tailored analytical plant

studies compared to using commercially available physico-chemical

monitoring instruments that are applied routinely in a cookbook fashion.

In practice, these different methods need not be mutually exclusive,

particularly for applications in urban environments. Significant synergistic

benefits can accrue from combining biomonitoring with instmmentation.

Buffer Zones

Various types of buffer zones have been implemented for

protective areas for several decades."^ The term “buffer zone” first appears

to have become widely used with the Man and Biosphere program and the

Biosphere Reserves in the 1970s, which aimed to set a scientific basis for

the improvement of the relationships between people and their

environment globally.^ Buffer zones are often created to enhance the

protection of a conservation area. Buffers are commonly used in a variety

of social functions, in addition to attempting to control air and water

quality.®

Shafer and others have pointed out that buffer zones can remedy

some impacts but not others, and social obstacles can further limit their

effectiveness. Protected areas are supposed to be safe havens. However, at

the present time, protected areas are generally not considered as islands

that are safe from negative external effects such as air or water pollution

from industrial activities, which can have serious impacts on species and

habitats within them. Shafer noted that the science of buffer zones is very

immature and deserves more attention and stated that a comprehensive,

overall protected area strategy must include more than just buffer zones. ^

Polyakov et found that buffers often fail to perform their protective

functions due to low adaptability of their designs to local settings. This

was caused by inadequate understanding of the conditions under which

(riparian) buffers perform the best at field scale. Clearly, buffer zones

have not been designed to guarantee the same level of protection expected

for the pH control from buffers used in chemistry laboratories. However,

buffer zones could be designed to take better advantage of the natural

ability of certain plants to bioaccumulate, degrade, or render harmless

contaminants in the air, water, or soil.

Multi-zone Biomonitoring Buffer Concept

Figure 1 introduces a multi-zone concept combining biomonitoring

with buffering and expanding the function of buffer zones to block the

transport of pollution from external sources.

Washington Academy of Sciences

Pollution resistant plant zone (optional)

Pollution (leteetion plant zone

Indigenous vegetation plant zone

Figure 1. Multi-zone Biomonitoring Buffer Concept. The pollution detection plant zone

is shown in the figure to contain two subzones including three layers each of which might

be comprised of sublayers of different types of vegetation.

The origin of pollution from point sources is represented in the

center of concentric ellipses. Pollution from non-point sources, including

e.g., transportation corridors, originates at the inside edge of the

linear/curvilinear strips. An optional pollution resistant plant zone could

serve as the first protective barrier, depending upon trade-offs between the

benefits of pollution resistance and possibly undesirable characteristics of

tolerant varieties or some non-native plants. Invasive plants would be

excluded because they can alter habitats and reduce biodiversity by

choking out other plant life, putting pressure on native plants and animals,

including threatened species that may succumb. The pollution detection

plant zone can be a series of subzones including e.g., two or three layers

each of which might be comprised of sublayers of different types of

vegetation. Legal permits for anthropogenic activities could possibly allow

pollution excursions to penetrate the first layer of the pollution detection

plant zone, which could be comprised of somewhat resistant plants, but

Summer 2013

4

not allow pollution to occur in the very sensitive plants comprising the

next sub layer within this zone. Hence, the first two zones would serve to

protect the indigenous vegetation zone from pollution damage. Carefully

designed plant studies will be required to set up the pollution detection

plant zone. In addition to forests and urban forests, bodies of water, such

as bays, canals, channels, falls, gulfs, lakes, rivers, and straits — which are

not sources of pollution — could possibly benefit from the first two zones.

Multi-tier buffer concepts are not new. For example, multi-tier

buffers are used in riparian areas. These strips of land — riparian buffers

— that separate upland or hill slope areas from streams, lakes, or wetlands

are managed for the purpose of removing pollutants from runoff or

groundwater; they are not designed with provisions for biomonitoring.

The multi-zone concept should enhance the ecological network

concept that was developed in Europe to counteract physical

fragmentation, which jeopardizes the viability of ecosystems and species

populations. Although the ecological network concept was primarily

created for rural areas, it has also been studied for application in urbanized

areas. A diagram of the ecological network concept is shown in Figure 2.

The core areas are the protected areas, which are connected by

corridors that allow the movement of animal and plant species between the

core areas, and both are surrounded by buffer zones. The corridors can

include long, uninterrupted strips of vegetation, which are termed linear

corridors', stepping stone corridors, which are small, non-connected

habitats used to find shelter, food, or for rest; and landscape corridors that

are strips of habitat that connect isolated patches of habitat.

Substantial benefits should accrue from transfomiing the buffer

zones in the ecological network concept into the more effective multi-zone

biomonitoring buffer zones shown in Figure 1. In other words, substituting

the multi-layer buffer zones for the weaker buffer zones in the ecological

network model could stop negative external effects, such as air or water

pollution, on protected areas — which can have serious impacts on species

and habitats within them.

i ^

The multi-zone concept should also enhance the greenways

concept that was developed in the United States. The temi greenways

refers to;

“a system of interconnected linear territories that are

protected, managed and developed so as to obtain

ecological, recreational, historical and cultural benefits”, or

Washington Academy of Sciences

5

a "system of routes dedicated to non-motorized traffic

connecting people with landscape resources (natural,

agricultural, historical-cultural) and the centres ot life

(public offices, sport and recreational facilities, etc.) both in

the urban areas and in the countryside.”

Buffer zone

Landscape corridor

Core area

Linear corridor

Stepping stone corridor

4

Sustainable-use areas

Figure 2. Diagrammatic representation of the spatial arrangement for an Ecological

Netvvork.^^ Here the core area is comparable to the indigenous vegetation plant zone

shown in Figure 1, and the corridors might be equivalent to the pollution resistant or

pollution detection plant zones.

Summer 2013

6

Greenways are frequently corridors within an urban, suburban, or

rural context, slotted into an artificial landscape. Greenways generally

develop along linear structures or elements already present in the

surrounding landscape, such as natural corridors (rivers, valleys, and

ridges), disused railways, canals and embankments, and panoramic roads

wo

or minor rural roads. Therefore, they offer the advantage of being easily

established even in areas that are critical in tenns of competition for space.

Both ecological networks and greenways are linear structures crossing the

landscape; both perform a connecting function in that they are elements

created for migration and movement (in one case of flora and fauna and in

the other ot humans); and both generally contain vegetation. Note,

however, that the application of the multi-zone buffering concept to

greenways and ecological networks would likely limit the range of human

activities that are currently permitted in the vicinity of conventional buffer

zones.

Discussion

The multi-zone biomonitoring buffer concept is essentially a

biological filtering system with inherent pollution detection and

monitoring capabilities. Its applications are not limited to ecological

networks. It can also enhance the numerous other conventional vegetative

buffer concepts, e.g. riparian buffers. It can pemiit easy sampling and long

term monitoring without the need for expensive equipment. It does not

require new technology or exotic materials to be developed to test its

implementation. It is a novel concept combining proven elements that has

not been discussed or reported in the literature.

There are several possible reasons why this concept has not yet

been engineered effectively into a useful system. The most likely include:

(1) resistance to creating or expanding buffers for protected areas due to

the politics of land use in buffer zone communities; (2) historically

ineffective permitting systems for siting and operating industrial facilities

or regulating effluents from human activities; and (3) the sophisticated

nature of plant studies. These and other reasons are discussed below.

Politics of Land Use

There is ample evidence in the literature that modifications to

buffer zones perceived as imposing additional human restrictions or

expanding restricted areas may require effective negotiations, additional

resources, and other obstacles that could delay implementation. In Africa,

buffer zone projects were sometimes viewed as coercive forms of

Washington Academy of Sciences

7

conservation practice that often constitute an expansion of state authority

into remote rural areas. Reporting on the historical, scientific, social, and

legal aspects of U.S. National Park Buffer Zones, Shafer observed that a

social climate opposing federal initiatives that intrude on the rights of

private landowners was the primary obstacle to creating park buffer zones

and connecting corridors. Singh conducted research on the role of buffer

zones in protected areas in Nepal. He observed:

The early concept of buffer zones was focused on the

protection of protected areas from external pressures,

particularly human created pressures. The main emphasis

was to establish restrictions on the utilisation of park

resources. This system did not become very successful ...

problems are present with the growing populations within

and in the immediate vicinity of the protected areas in

Nepal and degraded resources in public and private lands

which are considered the root causes of illicit harvesting of

park properties.

21

Finally, Bennett and Mulongoy concluded that although the

concept of a buffer zone may be straightforward, its design and its

functioning in practice can raise many challenges. Adequately

understanding the interaction between human activities and species

populations and the resulting dynamics is a complex issue; determining

appropriate land uses is therefore far from easy. Decisions to restrict

human activities in buffer zones will also impose costs on the landowners

and users, raising the question of compensation.

Historically Ineffective Permitting

As mentioned above, implementation of the multi-zone

biomonitoring concept envisions the effective enforcement of legal

permits to possibly allow pollution excursions to penetrate the first layer

of the pollution detection plant zone. This layer could be comprised of

somewhat resistant plants. The permits would not allow pollution to oecur

in the very sensitive plants comprising the next sub layer within the

pollution detection zone. Alternatively, some other arrangements could be

designed to protect the indigenous vegetation zone.

Permit systems for siting and operating point source facilities and

for (non-point source) diffuse sources of pollution are known to be

frequently ineffective due to loopholes, enforcement failures, and other

flaws. Point sources are easier to regulate, but many old factories and

Summer 2013

8

plants stand as monumental examples of the failed vision and politics of

the siting process. Fortunately, the siting of noxious, hazardous, and

nuisance facilities tends to draw additional scrutiny and public attention.

Ideally, the best solution is to change the pollution production

source so that no harmful emissions are released to the environment. This

is possible today for some manufacturing and production processes and

vehicles (excluding tire dust). Alternatively, when that is not possible, the

permit authorities should plan for the environmental consequences that

could occur over the operating life of the source, and possibly beyond the

life of the source, and ensure that permit provisions are enforceable. This

should include taking into account the physical, chemical, and temporal

nature of the pollutant stressors and providing for effective means of

preventing environmental pollution in the event of the failure of primary

containment. Based on past history, predicting future environmental

consequences might require research, new forecasting methods and skills,

and/or negotiating permits of shorter durations. The following paragraphs

illustrate the potential dilemma.

Under the Clean Air Act, federal officials responsible for

management of Federal Class I parks and wilderness areas have an

affirmative responsibility to protect the air quality related values (AQRVs)

(AQRVs may include vegetation, wildlife, water quality, soils, and

visibility) of such lands, and to consider whether a proposed major

emitting facility will have an adverse impact on such values. The term

AQRV originated in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 in the

provisions called Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD).

The PSD process requires land managers to predict AQRV

changes that would likely occur if a pollution source were built with the

pollutant emissions levels proposed in the permit. This predictive

requirement presented a challenge in using ecosystem-based AQRVs such

as lichens in the PSD process because no models were available that

quantitatively predicted how incremental changes in air chemistry can

affect site and species-specific lichen condition or viability in the future.

The Sophisticated Nature of Plant Studies

There are two distinct problem areas to be considered here: buffer

design and meaningful bioindicators.

Although there is a substantial literature base, there are no

cookbooks for designing buffers. A large body of scientific knowledge

exists to help guide the planning and designing of buffers. This

Washington Academy of Sciences

9

information is widely dispersed throughout the vast research literature and

is not easily accessible or usable for most planners. For example, Benlrup

prepared a guide with over 80 design guidelines developed from more

than 1,400 research articles from disciplines as diverse as agricultural

engineering, conservation biology, economics, hydrology, landscape

23

ecology, social sciences, and urban ecology.

Biomonitoring could appear to some observers to be the domain of

do-it-yourself Ph.D. scientists who spent years studying its intricacies.

De Temmerman et report that lack of standardization is

probably one of the major reasons why biomonitoring techniques are less

used in legislation than methods based on physico-chemical monitoring.

They noted, however, that both techniques are complementary because

physico-chemical monitors measure pollutant concentrations or deposition

fluxes, whereas biomonitors reflect effects.

Cape discusses when and when not to use plants as bioindicators,

and illustrates some of the precautions required if meaningful conclusions

are to be inferred. He notes that the sound interpretation of measurement

data relies on a clear understanding of what such ‘biomonitors’ can and

cannot demonstrate, and the limitations of each approach. Details are

available in Relating Atmospheric Source Apportionment to Vegetation

26

Effects: Establishing Cause and Effect Relationships.

Choosing the plants for the pollution resistant and pollution

detection zones associated with the multi-zone biomonitoring buffer

concept will require carefully designed pilot studies. However, no new

technology would be required.

Future Directions

Testing the multi-zone biomonitoring buffer concept could occur

through pilot studies conducted at various sites and scales. Rapid detection

and delineation of contaminants in urban settings is critically important in

protecting human health. Big urban parks can act as buffer zones

between highways and residential areas. However, town and city streets

are not ideal laboratories. Urban forests are increasingly being seen as an

important infrastructure that can help cities remediate their environmental

impacts.^® Buffer zones and riparian buffers in protected areas, greenways,

and ecological networks could be ideal sites for testing.

What happens across the borders can dramatically impact the

environment within protected areas. For example, proposals to site an

Summer 2013

10

open pit mine or gold mine next to a remote national park are likely to

cause concerns by people familiar with Silver Bow Creek, Oregon’s

Formosa Mine, or other past and present Superfund sites on the EPA’s

National Priorities List. Information about the vegetation in the areas

surrounding some of those sites is likely to yield numerous candidate plant

(and soil) indicators, which might be used to guide decisions concerning

proposed projects — and possibly, if a project is approved, the selection of

vegetation for use in a multi-zone biomonitoring project.

Opportunities may exist for collaboration with new or established

monitoring programs for local and industrial sources of pollution.

Programs on the local scale can require less effort due to a relatively easily

located point source from which contamination generally follows a

gradient. In this instance, cause and effects relationships are often obvious.

In large-scale surveys, other factors such as uneven spatial distribution and

pollutant mixtures become more significant. However, large-scale

standard monitoring programs can be important in providing data on long-

term temporal and spatial trends of air pollutants.

The multi-zone biomonitoring buffer concept could potentially

become a simple and inexpensive process which lends itself as a potent,

adaptable method of assessing air quality in developing countries.

However, due to climatic and edaphic (soil characteristics) differences,

additional considerations may be necessary. For example, in arid areas

flora may be less sensitive to air pollution because of low humidity.

Biological monitoring becomes highly applicable in remote areas where

continuous direct air sampling is expensive and impractical.

Laboratory and/or additional field investigations may be necessary

to establish the role of individual pollutants, the synergistic effects of

pollutant mixtures, and biological responses and tolerances. These studies

can be used to establish parameters of biological monitoring programs

conducted under natural conditions.

The pilot study initiated here could be considered a jumping off

point for a long-term study to continue to validate and refine the concept.

Conclusion

Human activities have been contributing increasingly to habitat

destruction, degradation, and fragmentation. Effective habitat management

and maintenance measures are needed to reverse this trend. Such measures

include inter alia coherent and comprehensive environmental control and

management systems; sufficient financial and technological support;

Washington Academy of Sciences

transparent effective permitting systems; and effective enforcement. This

paper describes a concept for combining the biomonitoring ability of

plants with their capacity to block the transport of pollutants before they

can contribute to habitat degradation. This multi-zone biomonitoring

buffer concept, when implemented through an effective permit system,

can contribute to preventing damage and providing stability to protected

areas.

References

■j ^

W. Nylander, “Les lichens du Jardin du Luxembourg,” Bulletin de la Societe Botanique

de France, 13 (1886): 364-372.

^ De Temmerman, L., J. Nigel, B. Bell, J. P. Garrec, A. Klumpp, G. H. M. Krause

and A. E. G. Tonneijck, “Biomonitoring of Air Pollutants with Plants,” EnviroNews,

11(2) (2005): 5.

2

“Biomonitoring,” http://www.coda-cerva.be/index. php?option=com content&view

=article&id =220&Itemid==2 1 4&lang^en. March I, 2013.

^ Task Force on Criteria and Guidelines for the Choice and Establishment of Biosphere

Resei'ves, MAB Report Series no. 22 (Bonn: UNESCO, 1974): 24-26.

^ Martino, D., “Buffer Zones Around Protected Areas: A Brief Literature Review,”

Electronic Green Journal, 1(15) (2001): 3.

0

Bentrup, G., Consei'vation Buffers - Design Guidelines for Buffers, Corridors, and

Greenways, U. S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station,

Asheville, N.C.: 2008.

^ Shafer, C. L., “U.S. National Park Buffer Zones: Historical, Scientific, Social, and

Legal Aspects,” Environmental Management, 23(1) Jan (1999): 49-73.

^ “Pan-European Ecological Networks,” lUCN Countdown 2010,

http://www.countdown20 1 0.net /archive/paneuropean.html, March 1, 2013: 4.

^ Shafer, 49.

Polyakov, V., A. Fares, and M. H. Ryder, “Precision riparian buffers for the control of

nonpoint source pollutant loading into surface water.” A review published on the NRC

Research Press web site at http://er.nrc.ca/ on 16 August 2005.

Parkyn, S. “Review of Riparian Buffer Zone Effectiveness,” MAE Technical Paper

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1 2

Bennett, G. and K. J. Mulongoy, Review of Experience with Ecological Networks.

Corridors, and Buffer Zones, CBD Technical Series No. 23. Secretariat of the

Convention on Biological Diversity. ISBN: 92-9225-042-6, March 2006.

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White, W. H., Securing Open Space for Urban America: Conservation Easements^

Urban Land Inst. Technical Bulletin, 36. Washington, D.C. (1959).

Toccolini, A., N. Fumagalli, and G. Senes, ‘'Greenways planning in Italy: the Lambro

River Valley Greenways System,'’ Landscape and Urban Planning, 76, (2006): 98-1 1 1 .

15

Little, C. E., Greenways for America^ The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore:

1990.

1 6

Fumagalli, N. and A. Toccolini, “Relationship Between Greenways and Ecological

Network: A Case Study in Italy,” Int. J. Environ. Res., Autumn 2012: 903-916.

*'Pan-European Ecological Networks,” lUCN Countdown 2010,

http://www.countdown20 1 0.net /archive/paneuropean.html, March 1, 2013: 4.

18

Neumann, R. P., “Primitive Ideas: Protected Area Buffer Zones and the Politics of

Land in Africa,” In Broch-Due, Vigdis and Richard Schroeder (eds). Producing Nature

and Poverty in Africa. Uppsala: Nordiska Afrikainstitutet: 2000.

Shafer, 5.

20

Thagunna, S. S., “The role of buffer zones in protected areas: A review and synthesis

of the case forNEPA,” Dissertation Lincoln University: 1995.

http://hdl.handle.net/ 1 0 1 82/29 1 2.

21

Bennett, G. and K. J. Mulongoy, Review of Experience with Ecological Nehvorks,

Corridors, and Buffer Zones, CBD Technical Series No. 23. Secretariat of the

Convention on Biological Diversity. ISBN: 92-9225-042-6, March 2006.

22

Collins, C., Toxic Loopholes: Failures and Future Prospects for Environmental Law,

First Edition, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK: 2010.

23

Bentrup, G., Conseiwation Buffers - Design Guidelines for Buffers, Corridors, and

Greenways, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station,

Asheville, N.C.: 2008.

De Temmerman, L., J. N. B. Bell, J. P. Garrec, A. Klumpp, G. H. M. Krause, A. E. G.

Tonneijck, “Biomonitoring of air pollutants with plants - considerations for the future,”

EuroBionet 2002 Conference on Urban Air Pollution, Bioindication and Environmental

Awareness 05.1 1.2002: 337-373.

Cape, J. N., “Plants as accumulating biomonitors,” BIOMAQ Conference, November

12-14 2012, Antwerp, Belgium: 5-6.

Cape, J. N. “Plants as Accumulators of Atmospheric Emissions,” in Legge, A. H. (ed.)

Relating Atmospheric Source Apportionment to Vegetation Effects: Establishing Cause

and Effect Relationships. Developments in Environmental Science, Volume 9. Ch. 3:61-

97.

Washington Academy of Sciences

Limmer, M. A., J. C. Balouet, F. Karg, D. A. Vroblesky, J. G. Burken,

“Phytoscreening for chlorinated solvents using rapid in vitro SPME, sampling:

application to urban plume in Verl, Germany," Environ Sci Technol. 201 1 Oct 1;

45(19):8276-82.

28

Pincetl, S., “Implementing Municipal Tree Planting: Los Angeles Million-Tree

Initiative," Environ Manage, 2010 February; 45(2): 227-238.

Bio

Samuel J. Biondo is an independent consultant with a business

practice focused on energy and environmental technology. He advises

county, state, and federal government agencies on energy, air, and water

quality issues. He earned undergraduate degrees from The Pennsylvania

State University and Johns Hopkins University and graduate degrees from

George Washington University.

Summer 2013

Washington Academy of Sciences

15

Newton’s Rotating Water Bucket: A Simple Model

Carl E. Mungan

U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, IMD

Trevor C. Lipscombe

Catholic University of America Press, Washington, DC

Abstract

Isaac Newton proposed hanging a bucket of water by a cord in the

Principia. If the cord is twisted and the bucket is then released, it

begins to spin and the surface of the water acquires a paraboloidal

shape. In this paper, the parabolic profile as a function of the angle of

rotation is derived, as well as the period of the torsional oscillations as

a function of the initial parameters of the system.

1. Introduction

If A VESSEL, hung by a long cord, is so often turned about that the cord is

strongly twisted, then fdled with water, and held at rest together with the

water... [then] while the cord is untwisting itself... the vessel, by gradually

communicating its motion to the water, will make it begin sensibly to

revolve, and recede by little and little from the middle, and ascend to the

sides of the vessel, forming itself into a concave figure (as I have

experienced) and the swifter the motion becomes, the higher will the water

rise ... This ascent of the water shows its endeavor to recede from the axis

of its motion; and the true and absolute circular motion of the water ...

becomes known, and may be measured by this endeavor. [ 1 ]

Newton’s bucket is well known to philosophers of science, who

have pondered the metaphysics of why the liquid in a rotating container

adopts a curved surface. Ernst Mach, for example, postulated that the

parabolic shape must be due to the existence of matter in the universe.

This paper won the Frank R. Haig Prize at the Spring 2013

meeting of the Chesapeake Section of the American Association of

Physics Teachers in Richmond, Virginia.

Summer 2013

16

specifically of the distant 'Tixed stars'” relative to which the bucket rotates.

[2] However, the simple physical questions are: How does the shape of the

water surface vary as the cord supporting the bucket unwinds? What is the

period of the torsional oscillations?

2. Surface Profile From a Force Analysis

Suppose water partly fills a right cylindrical bucket (of radius R)

that is rotating about its vertical z axis of symmetry at angular speed co.

Make the key assumption (to be discussed later) that the liquid

instantaneously follows the motion of the bucket. (The speed of the bucket

is restricted to be less than some value that prevents both the

spinning water from spilling over the top edge, and the bottom of the

bucket from being exposed at the axis of rotation.) Denote the cylindrical

coordinates of any point on the surface of the water as (r,^,z) where the

origin lies on the axis at the bottom of the bucket. The axes are fixed in the

laboratory frame and do not rotate with the bucket. The angular speed of

the water and bucket is co = d(f)/ dt . Two forces act on a bit of water at the

surface. One is gravity vertically downward. The other can be alternatively

described as being due to the pressure from the surrounding water [3], as a

buoyant force [4], or simply as a normal force [5]. The resultant of the two

forces is a radially inward centripetal force [6] in the inertial laboratory

frame, or equivalently a radially outward centrifugal force [7] in the

noninertial frame of the bucket. By considering the vertical and horizontal

components of Newton’s second law [8], one finds that the water surface

adopts the paraboloidal shape

1 7

Z = Zo+— — (1)

2g

where ^ = 9.80 m/s“ is Earth’s gravitational field strength and Zq is the

height of the water at the center of the spinning bucket. (Another way to

derive this result is to note that the surface of the water must be an

equipotential relative to the sum of the gravitational and centrifugal

potential energies [9j.) The value of Zq can be related to the total mass m

of water in the bucket,

R

m = 2;r/7 j rzdr (2)

0

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17

where p = 1000 kg/m'’ is the density of water. Substituting Eq. ( 1 ) into (2)

and performing the integral gives

m = npR'

Zo +

2 d2 ^

CO R

4g

(3)

Denote the height of the water in the bueket when it is stationary by h.

Then putting cu = 0 in Eq. (3) implies

m = TTpR^h,

(4)

so that Eq. (3) can be rearranged as

ZQ=h

2 d2

CO R

4g

(5)

Substituting this result into Eq. (1) leads to the normalized expression

h

= 1

CO'

f

CO,

?

1

2r'

2 ^

max V

R^

(6)

where co^^ =2R~^ . Note that z = 0 at 7^ = 0 when co = co^^^, in

agreement with the parenthetical discussion of above Eq. (1). Also

note that z / h = 2 at r = R when co = <z>max ’ which implies that the bucket

must initially be filled no more than halfway with water, to prevent liquid

from spilling out at the maximum angular speed. Equation (6) is plotted in

Figure 1 for three different values of co! For any angular speed,

z-h when r ! R-2 . As the bucket spins faster, the water level drops

in the center and rises up near the walls, as Newton noted.

Summer 2013

18

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

r/R

Figure 1. Profiles of the water surface for three different angular speeds.

3. Angular Speed From an Energy Analysis

The moment of inertia of the water in the spinning bucket is

R

f

7 = 1 r'lnprzdr -

1 +

CO

2 A

3 ft),

(7)

max J

using Eqs. (4) and (6), where the moment of inertia of the water when the

bucket is at rest is /q = mR~ / 2 . The moment of inertia increases as water

is Tung farther away from the axis of rotation with increasing angular

speed, up to a maximum value of 4/q / 3 .

Just as the elastic potential energy of a spring with a particle

attached to its end is Ax / 2 where x is the translational displacement of

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19

the particle and k is the spring constant, so the torsional potential energy of

the rope with the bucket attached to its end is

Uj=\c(f)- (8)

where (f) is the angular displacement of the bucket and c is the torsional

constant of the rope. The gravitational potential energy of the water

relative to the bottom of the bucket is

Rz

R {

1

2 o 2 2 A

, (D 2(0 r

^ ^ ^

^max ^max^ J

/7q = 1 1 lirprdzdrgz = npg^ rh

0 0 0 V

using Eq. (6). With the help of Eq. (4), the integral simplifies to

f .4 ^

dr

(9)

Un =

mgh

9

1 + T

V -^^^max J

(10)

which reduces to the expected result if co = 0 . Note the seemingly

paradoxical fact that even though the water is cylindrically symmetric and

Uq is therefore independent of ^ as measured in the rotating frame of the

bucket, Uq is a function of co which in turn depends on the angle (j) as

measured in the inertial frame of the laboratory. The resolution of this

paradox is that the angular acceleration is presumed to be small enough

that z can be taken to be independent of (f) over any 2 tt range, and yet the

height of the water at a given radius varies over the course of many

revolutions of the bucket. As noted in Ref [7], water in a 9-cm-diameter

Lucite cylinder spinning at a constant rate of 300 rpm takes about 1

minute to attain its equilibrium paraboloidal shape, indicating that the

coupling between z and (j) is weak but nonzero.

Assume that the mass of the bucket is negligible compared to that

of the water. Then the total potential energy U of the system is the sum of

Uj and Uq. Suppose that the rope is twisted through an initial angle and

the bucket is released from rest, so that the initial kinetic energy is = 0

and the initial potential energy is

U-^=\c(l^+\mgh. (11)

When the rope has untwisted to some angle (f) so that the bucket is rotating

at angular speed co, the kinetic energy is

Summer 2013

20

x/' ^ r 2 ^ T 2 "^O 4

— I CO ~ — ^0^^ "I — CO

2 2 “ 6.4,,

according to Eq. (7), and the potential energy is

IT 1 ,2 1 , Wg/7 4

Uf - —c^ + — mgh H : 0) .

1

1

6(0,

max

Conservation of energy now implies that

c(4 .

^ ' ?>co.

max

(12)

(13)

(14)

Noting that I^co^^^^lrngh , we can rearrange Eq. (14) into the

normalized form

EI_ + 2 —

c

f

1-

2 ^

V

4.

^max ^max

Solving this biquadratic equation gives

2

(15)

(0

CO,

max

i

{

\ + p

1

(!>

2 A

V

1

(16)

7

where

mgh

(17)

The dimensionless constant P is the ratio of the initial torsional potential

energy / 2 to the initial gravitational potential energy mgh / 2 . The

square root of Eq. (16) is plotted in Figure 2 for three different values of p.

Note that the maximum value of /? is 3 if co is not to exceed when the

cord has fully unwound at (f)-6 . Furthennore, even at the midpoint of the

bucket’s oscillations when = increasing /? from 1 to 3 increases co by

only 55%.

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21

Figure 2. Angular speed of the water as a function of the fractional unwinding of the

rope for three different initial numbers of twists of the bucket.

4. Period of Torsional Oscillations

Take the square root of Eq. (16), substitute co = d(f)ldt, and

separate variables. Then integrate over a quarter period T / 4 as the bucket

passes through its equilibrium position and the cord fully winds back up,

to get

1

0

f

1 + /?

<t>

2 A

€

J

-1/2

r/4

= j ■

0

(18)

— 1 1

Multiply both sides of this equation by (f)^ (5 ^ . Then make the change of

variable in the left-hand integral to ^ where sin^ = ^/^). Perform the

right-hand integral and substitute Eq. (17) into it to eliminate /?. Using

Summer 2013

00

= >/2wg/7 / /q , Eq. (18) gives the period of the bucket’s torsional

oscillation as

T =

nl/2

de.

(19)

The square root in the denominator inside the square brackets is

approximately l + 0.5/?cos“ 6 in the limit as ^ 0 . Denoting the period

as Tq in this small-angular-amplitude limit, one immediately obtains

To

(20)

as expected, since / ^ /q for small cu according to Eq. (7). The integral in

Eq. (19) can be numerically evaluated for nonzero /?, but it is found to

only increase slowly with p. Even at the maximum value of /? = 3 , the

period of oscillation is merely 12% larger than Tq.

In any case, Eq. (16) gives an exact solution in phase space,

whereby quantities are expressed in terms of the twist angle (j) rather than

in terms of the elapsed time t. For example, substituting Eq. (16) into (6)

gives the height of the water at any point in the bucket as a function of the

angle that the cord has unwound. In particular, at the walls of the bucket

where r = R, let Z denote the height of the water. Then the fractional rise

in the height of the water at the walls above the stationary level is

Z-h

h

\

f

1+/?

1-

2 ^

V

-1

(21)

which is equal to the normalized square of the angular speed of the bucket,

according to Eq. (16). As already mentioned, Z-2h when P = 2 and

^2^ = 0.

5. Closing Remarks

Why is the period 12% longer for large-angle oscillations of this

torsional pendulum than it is for small amplitudes? The reason is not the

same as for a simple pendulum. For a simple pendulum, the period

increases because the approximation ?,\r\6^9 breaks down at large

Washington Academy of Sciences

23

angles. Instead, the reason here is the increase in the moment of inertia of

the water, in accordance with Eq. (7). In particular, if we froze the water,

then the period would be independent of amplitude, just as it is for a mass

on a Hookean spring.

Finally, let's return to the key assumption underlying the analysis.

The viscosity of the water must be high at the walls and bottom of the

bucket if the fluid is to instantaneously adjust to the motion of the solid

container. At the same time, the viscosity needs to be low within the bulk

of the fluid to prevent differences in angular speed between one region of

the water and another. Fortunately, simulations for the spin of an

incompressible fluid in a cylindrical container suggest that there are viscid

boundary layers in the water near the solid surfaces of the cylinder,

accompanied by an inner inviscid core [10]. The situation is similar to

laminar flow over an airplane wing, with drag motion close to the wing

and potential flow far away from it.

References

[ 1 ] I. Newton, Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica Vol. 1: The Motion of

Bodies, orig. 1686, translated by A. Motte, revised by F. Cajori (Univ. of CA Press,

Berkeley, 1934), p. 10.

[2] E. Mach, The Science of Mechanics (Open Court Publishing, London, 1919), p. 232,

online at http://archive.Org/stream/scienceofmechani005860mbp#page/n5/mode/2up

[3] J. Grube, “Centripetal force and parabolic surfaces,” Phys. Teach. 1 1, 109-1 1 1 (Feb.

1973).

[4] Z. Sabatka and L. Dvorak, “Simple verification of the parabolic shape of a rotating

liquid and a boat on its surface,” Phys. Educ. 45, 462^68 (Sep. 2010).

[5] S. A. Genis and C. E. Mungan, “Orbits on a concave frictionless surface,” J. Wash.

Acad. Sci. 93, 7-14 (Summer 2007).

[6] C. P. Price, “Teacup physics: Centripetal acceleration,” Phys. Teach. 28, 49-50 (Jan.

1990).

[7] J. M. Goodman, “Paraboloids and vortices in hydrodynamics," Am. J. Phys. 37,

864-868 (Sep. 1969).

[8] R. E. Berg, “Rotating liquid mirror,” Am. J. Phys. 58, 280-281 (Mar. 1990).

[9] M. Basta, V. Picciarelli, and R. Stella, “A simple experiment to study parabolic

surfaces,” Phys. Educ. 35, 120-123 (Mar. 2000).

Summer 2013

24

[10] J. S. Park and J. M. Hyun, “Spin-up flow of an incompressible fluid,” Proc. 15th

Australasian Fluid Mech. Conf. (Sydney, Australia, Dec. 2004), online at

http://www.aeromech.usvd.edu.au/15afmc/proceedings/papers/AFMC00036.pdf

Bios

Carl E. Mungan is an Associate Professor of Physics at the

United States Naval Academy in Annapolis. His research interests are

currently focused on stimulated Brillouin scattering in optical fibers and

spectroscopy of rare-earth-doped crystals and glasses.

Trevor C. Lipscombe is the Director of the Catholic University of

America Press in Washington, D.C. He is the author of The Physics of

Rugby (Nottingham University Press, 2009) and coauthor of Albert

Einstein: A Biography (Greenwood, 2005).

Washington Academy of Sciences

25

An Examination of Historical and Current Laws

Governing Leporids

Kelsey Gilcrease

South Dakota School of Mines and Technology

Abstract

Leporids (rabbits and hares) are usually assumed to be abundant;

however, some populations in North America are declining. Over time,

the human use of leporids has involved trapping, breeding, and

consumption. Now there are increasing concerns about the conservation

of leporids. Wildlife laws can assist with the management of wildlife

declines, as they underpin how leporid populations are regulated. There

has been little research regarding how and why certain jurisdictions

developed in the context of leporid conservation. In order to improve

conservation efforts, a historical legislative baseline must be

understood. This study examined the historical underpinnings of 19*’’

century legislation regarding leporids in the United States by examining

published wildlife laws, including hunting regulations, scalp laws, and

laws related to the possession of game — and also the violation of

those laws. The study revealed that leporid legislation during the 19*’’

century in the United States focused on the regulation of take through

either bounty limits or limiting hunting seasons. The findings provide

an understanding of why people could not hunt leporids during certain

seasons, why people could not hunt with ferrets, and why leporid meat

could not be sold during certain times of the year.

Introduction

Wildlife laws impact how wildlife populations are regulated (Coggins

1978) and how species are treated (Linder 1988), and they also impact

organismal biology, the economy, and certain social factors (Coggins

1978). For example, wildlife laws regulate population size through the use

of bag limits and hunting seasons; the selling and shipment of game meat

contributes to the economy.

Leporids (rabbits and hares) are prey species, game species,

herbivores, and maintainers of the ecosystem, and they contribute to the

diversity of floral species in the ecosystem (Zedler and Black 1992, Lees

and Bell 2008). Historically, leporids were “in abundance” in the United

States (e.g., Hallock 1883, Bailey 1908) and, in fact, they were so

abundant that numerous “rabbit drives” were held for jackrabbits across

the United States (Palmer 1896). Today, however, almost one in four

Summer 2013

26

species of the Order Lagomorpha — which includes rabbits and hares

(Leporidae), and also pikas (Ochotonidae) — are threatened (lUCN

2013a).

Since laws impact wildlife populations, it is imperative to examine

the historical underpinnings of legislation relating to leporids. The 19^’^

century was an interesting time period in the United States as people

immigrated into the country, settlement began to develop, and states

joined the Union. The conversation on historical wildlife laws seems to

focus on who had the power to regulate wildlife law or who had the power

to hunt (e.g., Lund 1976, Lueck 1989, Lueck 1995); however, there has

been little research on how and why historical laws pertaining specifically

to leporids were developed and approached. In particular, there is little

understanding of how decisions were made, why people could not hunt

leporid species during certain seasons, why people could not hunt with

ferrets, or sell meat during specific times of the year.

The aim of this paper is to clarify how and why certain leporid

legislation was implemented. First, the paper lists the laws and regulations

pertaining to leporids from 1800 to 1900, followed by an analysis of these

laws, including those for protecting or hunting leporids, hunting with

ferrets, and selling meat. Since a historical analysis is valuable in order to

understand current laws (Bean and Rowland 1997), the paper includes a

comparison of current and historical leporid legislation. Finally, in order to

examine historical laws, it is necessary to examine a state example to

assess how the historical laws worked in practice {i.e., violations that

occurred with legislation); therefore. New Jersey is used as an example of

how often the rabbit laws were violated from the 4-year period from 1896

to 1900. Historical information can play an important role in conservation

efforts and could be better incorporated into conseiwation studies (Meine

1999, Szabo and Hedl 2011).

In conducting this research, electronic academic databases were

searched under the terms “rabbit laws” and “rabbit scalps” from 1836 to

1900 through the Library of Congress website for historical newspapers.

Identified laws were typed into Google Books and searched over the years

1800-1900 and additional materials were identified, including peer

reviewed publications and government published articles. The study

methodology was based on the historical research method which involved

the validation of data (Leedy and Ormrod 2010). Therefore, the

newspapers and articles were examined for external evidence and

carefully chosen as primary sources. Once articles were deemed genuine.

Washington Academy of Sciences

27

internal evidence dealt with interpreting the historical information, and

this involved listing assumptions to guide interpretation of the data (Leedy

and Ormrod 2010). The following assumptions guided the interpretation of

the data for this research: the laws echoed the need for people to protect

their assets, and protect leporids for the future as people enjoyed hunting

them; and, many wildlife populations were undervalued at the time (as

described by Lueck 1989). A process for analyzing qualitative research

was applied in which the data were coded, and items with closely linked

concepts were categorized (Holloway 1997). For example, laws relating to

protection/ ferrets/ hunting dates/ selling meat were coded as a “1”; laws

relating to bounties were coded as a “2”; and laws relating to “other” were

coded as a “3.”

19th Century Laws Relating to Leporids

A summary of the laws pertaining to leporids in the United States

from 1820 to 1899 is presented in Table 1.

As shown in Figure 1, the majority (66%) of the laws from 1820 to

1 899 focused on the protection of rabbits. Others allowed scalping.

Further analysis revealed that the eastern United States focused on

the protection of rabbits or hares with season dates, bag limits, banning the

use of ferrets during hunting, and/or restricting game sales. The western

states focused on bounties, and the counties paid money to individuals

who captured jackrabbits.

Many of the laws were of county jurisdiction (see Table 1).

Counties imposed fines or jail time for individuals who disobeyed the law.

The more lenient laws involved $l-$5 fines or jail for 10 days.

It was also apparent that the earlier 19^'’ century laws concentrated

on hunting seasons and methods of capture. In the laws listed in Table 1,

the leporid hunting season lengths ranged from 4 months to more than 2

years. The later 19^*^ century laws dealt with the export and sale of game

(Palmer and Oldys 1900).

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Table 1. Summary ofU.S. laws pertaining to leporids, 1820-1899

Washington Academy of Sciences

Table 1. Summary oFU.S. laws pertaining to leporids, 1820-1899 (continued)

Summer 2013

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Figure 1. U.S. lavvs/regulations relating to leporid protection, scalping, and other

purposes, 1820-1899

Impact of Historic Regulations on Leporid Conservation

As the research findings demonstrate, certain historic regulations

have particularly impacted the conservation of leporids today, including

historic regulations relating to leporid hunting and/or protection; the use of

ferrets in hunting; and the sale of meat.

Early Laws to Limit Hunting and Protect Leporids

Both protecting and hunting leporids appeared to be controversial

in the eastern United States. On the one hand, people wanted to hunt

leporids and it was unclear as to why a predator or varmint could take the

animal when the leporid could provide nourishment for human

consumption (Annual Report of the Game Commissioners of the State of

Pennsylvania 1914). At the same time, farmers and nursery owners in

Ohio were upset by the protection of rabbits, as the rabbits would multiply

and impede the growing of crops and trees (Annual Report of the Ohio

State Board of Agriculture 1898).

On the other hand, wildlife populations in many states generally

were decreasing (Dambach 1948) and it was therefore necessary to

Washington Academy of Sciences

establish hunting seasons. People wanted to protect rabbits From hunting

and rabbit dogs so that they would not become scarce (Recreation 1899,

Willis 1900, Recreation 1900). Dambach (1948) states that Ohio hunters

enjoyed hunting rabbits and that provided protection for the rabbits

through hunting seasons, banning the use of ferrets, and regulating the sale

of rabbits that were taken legally.

In the past, the hunting seasons were designed around breeding

seasons (Dambach 1948, Tober 1981). Conservation and sportsmen’s

organizations helped to shape the hunting seasons and the means of taking

animals so as to ensure supply of game (Dunlap 1988). As far as

transparency was concerned, changes in hunting seasons occurred often.

In fact, it was difficult to determine or be in compliance with game

seasons and shipment timing, as there was little transparency between

states (Palmer and Oldys 1900).

All of these factors reflected the value of rabbits to citizens either

for aesthetic reasons or for taking rabbits for their meat or fur. The first

law to protect rabbits with a closed season (September 1 to February 1)

was enacted in New Jersey in 1820 (Palmer 1912).

Regulating Hunting with Ferrets

In addition to the controversial hunting of rabbits, the use of ferrets

when hunting was specifically controversial. Some hunters thought it was

easier to hunt rabbits with ferrets, since ferrets were efficient hunters, as

long as the hunters were not bagging numerous rabbits at once with the

ferrets (Recreation 1900).

On the other hand, there were many hunters who were opposed to

allowing ferrets on hunts. For example, some sportsmen thought it was

cruel to catch a rabbit with ferrets and wanted heavy fines placed on

people who hunted rabbits with ferrets (Recreation 1900). This type of

hunting was not easy on ferrets because sometimes hunters sewed the lips

of the ferret (Wood 1865) and, if a muzzle was not put on the ferret, the

ferret would not work well in a rabbit buiTow (The National

Encyclopaedia 1884). In addition, some people thought that hunting with a

ferret was not sportsman like (Stonehenge 1859). Tastly, people were

afraid rabbits would become “almost extinct” by hunting with ferrets in

Ohio (The Stark County Democrat 1874). Lund (1980) suggested that

legislators began to recognize that the take of game could be regulated by

limiting the more efficient hunting methods, such as the use of feiTets for

hunting rabbits (Linduska 1947).

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Regulating the Sale of Meat

Selling leporid meat was also controversial for a variety of reasons.

In addition to fanners, hunters also wanted to hunt rabbits and sell the

meat. However, according to the Annual Report of the Game

Commissioners of the State of Pennsylvania (1914), farmers did not have

time to hunt and felt it was wrong for others to gain profit from meat taken

from the farmer’s land (Annual Report of the Game Commissioners of the

State of Pennsylvania 1914). Additionally, people who enjoyed game meat

would either need to become hunters or sacrifice eating game if meat

selling was restricted (Michigan State Game, Fish, and Forest Fire

Department 1889, American Gardening 1899). Some felt that if it was

illegal to kill an animal out of hunting season, then it should be illegal to

sell the animal outside of the hunting season (Palmer and Oldys 1901).

Lund (1980) suggested that the laws would be easier to administer

when the crime was selling game rather than hunting it. Thus, ceasing to

sell game was a way to protect leporids and prevented market hunters

from illegal takings during a closed hunting season (Michigan State Game,

Fish, and Forest Fire Department 1889). In fact, court proceedings dealt

with the selling of game meat and ownership of game animals. One such

case was the 1 896 case of Geer v. Connecticut, which preceded the Lacey

Act of 1900, and which stipulated that the state could regulate wildlife

transport once the animal perished. The Lacey Act (1900) made it illegal

to move killed wildlife into another state when state laws were violated

(Lueck 1989).

One State Example: New Jersey

This section describes one state and its prosecution data on

violations that dealt with leporids. New Jersey was the first state to

establish hunting season dates on rabbits in 1820. New Jersey utilized

game wardens and sheriffs to enforce the game laws (see Annual Reports

of the Board offish and Game Commissioners of the State of New Jersey

1896-1899).

According to New Jersey’s 1896 Chapter 169, it was illegal to

have a rabbit in possession except between the dates of November 10 and

January 1. The fine was $20 for each animal out of regulation. Figure 2

illustrates that during the first four years of this law, the highest instances

of rabbit offenses occurred in 1 898 in New Jersey (data obtained from

Annual Reports of the Board of Fish and Game Commissioners of the

State of New Jersey, 1896-1899). The offenses that occurred during the 4-

Washington Academy of Sciences

year period from 1896 to 1899 ineluded killing, possession, snaring,

snooding or netting, using a ferret, trapping, and offering leporids for sale

(Annual Reports of the Board of Fish and Game Commissioners of the

State of New Jersey 1896-1900).

Figure 2. Offenses involving rabbits in New Jersey, 1896-1900

The year 1899 was the highest in terms of acquitted or suspended

rabbit offense cases, with 77% of the cases being acquitted or suspended

(Figure 3). By 1900, only 20% of the cases were acquitted or suspended

(data obtained from Annual Reports of the Board of Fish and Game

Commissioners of the State of New Jersey 1896-1899).

Comparing Current and Historical Laws

Current laws governing leporids retain many aspects of the

historical laws, such as those regulating bag limits, hunting seasons, the

sale of rabbit meat, rabbit coursing with dogs, use of feiTets in hunting,

and banning hunting on Sundays. In the past, regulations regarding

wildlife rehabilitation and more advanced transportation laws were not

imposed. Hunting restrictions too, have evolved over the years (Lueck

1995). For example, it is unlawful to shoot from roads or hunt near

buildings or machinery (see Lueck 1995 for more details). As for scalp

laws, there are few to no leporid bounty regulations today.

Summer 2013

34

0.9

0.8

1896 1897 1898 1899 1900

Year

Figure 3. Rabbit criminal cases that were acquitted or suspended in New Jersey,

1896-1900

Historical laws did not possess a species status classification

system to speeify which leporids were covered by legislation. Today,

however, on a species level, one of the earliest leporids to be classified as

“near threatened” status was the white-sided jackrabbit {Lepus callotis) in

1975 (lUCN 2013b). Leporids with threatened, vulnerable, and

endangered species status include the Columbia basin pygmy rabbit,

Brachylagus idahoensis, and the riparian brush rabbit, Sylvilagus

bachmcmi riparius. For these species, the focus of leporid conservation has

shifted to the restoration of habitats, translocation efforts, rehabilitation

programs, recovery programs, and reeovery plans.

Indeed, there are states where several species of leporids live and,

in these states some leporid species can be hunted, whereas others cannot.

For example, in Ohio the snowshoe hare {Lepus americamis) cannot be

hunted, whereas other leporids can be hunted (Ohio Department of

Natural Resources 2013). In addition, states such as Iowa and Missouri

have banned hunting of white-tailed jackrabbits {Lepus townsendii) yet, in

other states, the white-tailed jackrabbit can be hunted throughout the year.

Table 2 presents a synopsis comparing current and historic

regulation related to leporids.

Washington Academy of Sciences

35

Table 2. Comparison of historic and current laws on leporids

Summary of the Historical Underpinnings of Leporid Legislation

Leporid legislation in the 19^^ century did not include regulations

on disease, introduction of exotic species, or impact of fire or grazing

animals on leporid populations. Instead, the historic laws related mostly to

hunting seasons, with the first leporid season being established in New

Jersey in 1820. This is consistent with Lund (1976) and Lueck (1989) who

reported that the earliest state controls involved establishing hunting

seasons. The first bag limit for leporids was in Wisconsin in 1903 (Palmer

1912).

Coggins and Evans (1982) noted that the laws were not consistent

between states. For example, the eastern states focused on protection of

leporids, whereas the western states imposed bounties. There are positives

and negatives regarding the consistency among the laws. When laws are

consistent within and between states, there is less confusion for hunters

who travel between counties and states. However, when the laws are not

consistent within and between states, it may lead to poor wildlife

enforcement (Stockdale 1993). For this reason, laws may need to be

inconsistent by necessity as habitat changes occur throughout regions and

Summer 2013

36

related regulations on hunting may vary with regional wildlife and habitat

changes (Lueck 1995).

As noted, certain historical laws and regulations have had a

particular impact on the conservation of leporids today. They especially

include regulations related to hunting and/or protection, the use of ferrets,

and the sale of meat.

Regarding laws and regulations to hunt or protect, Lund (1976)

suggested that the level of regulation was reliant on the degree of

exploitation. This perspective could be hard to ascertain, given the lack of

wildlife hunting statistics and population data for the 19^*^ century. Today,

population census records along with mortality and hunting statistics are

used to help determine hunting seasons and bag limits.

Since hunting with ferrets was an efficient and effective means of

hunting rabbits (Linduska 1947), some states banned using a ferret for

hunting to protect rabbit populations (Dambach 1948, Quesenberry and

Carpenter 2011). Ferrets are considered exotic animals, may become feral,

and can prey upon native wildlife (Long 2003, Tully Jr. and Mitchell

2012). For these reasons, some states such as California do not allow

ferrets as pets (Rollin and Kesel 1995). All of these factors may be reasons

why ferrets are not used in hunting today to help conserve leporid

populations.

Market hunting historically helped to supply meat and pelts to

cities, but it has been suggested that the sale of wildlife meat may have led

to declining wildlife populations (Geist 1985, Stockdale 1993). Regardless

of whether the regulation of meat selling has contributed to wildlife

conservation so that populations do not decline from market hunting,

regulations on transporting or importing game meat are important so that

diseases are not introduced or new species are not introduced that compete

with native wildlife (Geist 1988, Butler et al. 2005).

Conclusions and Implications for Further Research

Many aspects of the 19^'’ century laws regarding leporids still exist

today for the leporids that are allowed to be hunted in the United States.

As discussed, this includes hunting seasons and bag limits, ferret

restrictions, and meat sale regulations. Many laws in the 19^'^ century did

not specify which species of leporids were covered by legislation, as a

species conservation status classification system did not exist in the 19^’^

century.

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37

I’he establishment of the hunting season was one of the earlier

regulations for conserving wildlife in the United States, and hunting

season dates and lengths were altered numerous times (Palmer and Oldys

1901). Presumably, a longer hunting season would decrease populations

further than a shorter hunting season. However, it is unclear as to whether

an extension of hunting season has an impact on overall wildlife

population numbers. Palmer and Bennett (1963), George et al. (1980), and

Rexstad (1992) found no effects of season length on population size or

survival of various avifauna. However, Grau and Grau (1980) found that

hunting season length was important and depended upon hunter effort,

cost, management, and enforcement of laws as the hunting season lasted.

Similarly, few studies examine the length of the hunting season

specifically on leporid population numbers. Regarding leporid hunting in

the past, presumably a shorter hunting season meant less take; however,

more data are needed to prove this. Dambach (1948) speculated that

hunting season lengths for cottontails were dependent on hunting pressure,

disease, or adverse climate in Ohio. Further research in this area could

focus on how hunting season lengths have been chosen. As historical

documents become more available, further research could also deteiTnine

clear-cut dates as to when hunting allowed the use of ferrets in rabbit

hunting in the United States.

Further research could focus on historical enforcement of the laws.

Tober (1981) and Stockdale (1993) pointed out that laws were not

enforced very well during the 19^'’ century. It would be useful to note the

number of wardens or officers available to catch violators, whether the

wardens were paid or volunteers, how many violations were reported, and

what crimes were reported more frequently - according to, for example,

whether a warden or officer spent more time on land or water.

It would also be useful to compare additional state prosecution lists

to determine how many violations involved leporids. This would enable a

comparison of enforcement between states to determine if some states

placed heavier emphasis on game or fish violations. If more emphasis was

placed on game violations, this could reflect a rough estimate of wildlife

abundance with regard to hunting (Dambach 1948) and could infer that

leporid populations were healthier if there were fewer hunting violations.

Summer 2013

38

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Bio

Kelsey Gilcrease is a biology and ecology instructor at the South

Dakota School of Mines and Technology in Rapid City, South Dakota.

Her main research interests include the conservation of leporids,

conservation planning mechanisms, biogeography, and population ecology

of mammalian fauna.

Summer 2013

Washington Academy of Sciences

Coiled Tubing Operations May Offer

Paradigm Shift in Humanitarian Logistics

43

Apoorva Sinha

Tubing Operations for Humanitarian Logistics, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia

Abstract

TOHL, Tubing Operations for Humanitarian Logistics, is a start-up

non-profit based on a logistical innovation responsible for the advent of

mobile infrastructure. Using small-diameter flexible tubing, TOHL’s

goal of installing supply lines, particularly for water, quickly and cost-

effectively is an important departure from the conventional methods of

using disaster-affected roads and bridges for aid delivery. TOHL’s

founders recently demonstrated the concept by laying more than one

kilometer of tubing in roughly nine minutes on July 5, 2012, in the

mountainous fringes of Santiago, Chile. TOHL has created a potential

paradigm shift in disaster logistics by aiming to provide water supply

lines at an unparalleled rapid pace and with extensive operational

versatility. The TOHL creators intend to use this advantage to change

disaster logistics globally, one tubing operation at a time. This paper

presents the decision-making and analyses involved in the process of

exploring the technical feasibility and organizational sustainability of

TOHL as a business venture.

Introduction

The 2010 Haiti earthquake, with a catastrophic magnitude of 7.0 on

the Richter scale, with an epicenter only 25 kilometers west of the Haitian

capital, Port-Au-Prince, has been recognized as one of the largest modern

devastations in human history. The tragedy claimed more than 220,000

lives and more than a million people were left homeless in its wake within

a month of the earthquake (see Disasters Emergency Committee). The

extent and magnitude of the devastation led to the eommencement of one

of the biggest modem relief efforts in recent history to aid Haitians with

an influx of aid, money and relief workers from around the globe.

The disaster’s scope served as the catalyst behind an innovation

tailored specifically to resolve issues regarding the provision of water, the

ultimate necessity for life, and its availability to disaster-affected victims.

This new innovation, called Tubing Operations for Humanitarian

Logistics, or TOHL, was conceived with the specific idea of helping

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44

sustain human life post-disaster by providing supply lines for clean

potable water to those in dire need of it.

Conception of the TOHL idea was the direct result of British

Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) coverage of the Haiti disaster and its

aftermath. The extensive media disclosure of the post-disaster relief effort

was crucial in creating a catalyst for change in the minds of TOHL’s

founders - both engineering students at Georgia Institute of Technology

(Georgia Tech) - and helping to identify that there was a problem amidst

the broken infrastructure and shattered society of Port-Au-Prince. The

founders of the non-profit TOHL, Inc. became convinced that the relief

delivery systems used after disasters were not ideal, and that a better

solution could not only help increase the rapidity and scale of help for

disaster victims, but also be implemented cost-effectively.

The primary catalyst behind moving forward with the TOHL

concept in its nascent stage was a dialogue that Bill Clinton, 42nd

President of the United States and head of the post-earthquake operation in

Haiti, had with the BBC. Among the various points Mr. Clinton raised

with regard to the challenges faced by the relief workers, he emphasized

an important fact that created clear validation for TOHL’s founders that

the field of disaster logistics was not in an ideal state. He highlighted that

often it wasn’t the availability of necessary resources on the ground that

constrained relief operations, but rather the incapability of the local

infrastructure to deliver the relief to the disaster victims. The BBC

interview resonated instantly.

TOHL started from the outset as a brainstorming exercise about the

most effective methods for transporting materials, and the possibility of

creating post-disaster supply lines that could be installed rapidly.

TOHL was not conceived in a Georgia Tech classroom, although

the conceiver, Sinha, the author of this article, was attending the university

as a senior in Chemical Engineering at the time. TOHL was, however, the

product of an iterative process by Sinha and his classmate — the TOHL

organization’s founding partner, Benjamin Cohen^ — to improve on the

initial concept and transform it into an economically feasible solution to

problems in providing disaster relief The original inspiration to resolve

the problem of disaster logistics emerged from S inha’s experience as an

oil field intern in the summer of 2009. He discussed his initial concept at

great length with Dr. Matthew Realff, associate professor at the Georgia

Tech School of Chemical and Bio-molecular Engineering at the time.

TOHL's co-founder, Cohen, joined the team promptly thereafter.

Washington Academy of Sciences

45

Conventional Humanitarian Logistics

In the immediate aftermath of the Haiti disaster, the small team

that TOHL eomprised — Sinha, Cohen, and Dr. Realff — investigated the

contemporary state of humanitarian logistics. They found that existing

disaster relief operations throughout the world use the remnants of the pre-

disaster local infrastructure to create logistical supply lines to aid victims.

As such, the ability of the pre-disaster local infrastructure to

withstand a disaster is an important factor in determining the rapidity of

post-disaster operations. This fact has important repercussions for any

disaster relief system already in place or being developed. For example, if

all the local roads and bridges have been rendered useless by a natural

calamity like an earthquake, relief organizations would be much slower in

commencing operations than in a scenario where only a portion of the

roads and bridges are damaged.

The impact of disasters on the local infrastructure can vary in both

magnitude and profile. The randomness of damage inflicted is a primary

reason behind the need to customize every response situation. The

uncertainty associated with disasters mandates a rapid response and

strategic shifts in the logistics of every operation, thereby reducing

efficiency in the rate and volume of delivery.

It would also stand to reason that the scale of a post-disaster

operation would be a function of the number of victims affected in a

region. Presumably the relationship would be direct — that is, more

money, personnel and time would be allocated to affected areas with

larger populations than those with smaller populations. In the field of

humanitarian relief, the needs of the many almost always outweigh the

needs of the few, and for good reason.

However, in humanitarian logistics (a subset of humanitarian relief

operations), the TOHL group found that the efficiency of an operation has

no correlation with the number of affected victims. A humanitarian

logistics operation might be effective at providing aid to a hundred people,

yet completely helpless in delivering aid to hundreds of thousands of

people due to logistical bottlenecks and a lack of post-disaster

infrastructure. Put simply, the efficiency of a humanitarian logistics

operation does not have a direct relationship with the number of affected

people. A high number of disaster victims does not necessarily mean aid

will be delivered more quickly or efficiently to them than to smaller

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46

pockets of victims — even if the efforts, personnel and time attributed to

the project have been scaled as necessary.

Ideal Humanitarian Relief versus Logistical Trade-offs

In an ideal world, a logistician working for a disaster relief agency

or a government emergency response branch would be able to reach and

deliver aid to the largest number of disaster victims in the shortest amount

of time, throughout the affected region without any restrictions. The food,

water and medicine stocked in government or non-governmental

organization inventories would be moved out of the warehouses as soon as

they are received and begin their journey toward disaster victims. The

stocked aid would be dispersed in a way to maximize the number of

people helped in the least amount of time possible to prevent the loss of

life due to starvation or lack of water. The ideal relief effort would also

maximize outreach to the various geographic parts of an affected region.

The logistician’s only consideration would be the anticipated demand for

aid in a particular region, and not the limitations of the crew in delivering

the aid. Ideally, the logistician would not consider anything but the needs

of the disaster victims in determining the flow of aid. Also, the logistician

would have a complete range of movement throughout an area when

choosing the optimum course of action. The issues presented by faulty or

non-existent infrastructure would be circumvented in an ideal relief

operation. Most importantly, the favorite humanitarian logistics operation

would be cost-effective and, ideally, free of cost.

The above ideal scenario for a disaster logistician is considerably

different from an actual situation witnessed on the ground. In reality, an

approach that balances versatility and performance with cost-effectiveness

is still missing.

Historical Use of Aerial Vehicles and Modern-Day Costs

While the local infrastructure and its post-disaster condition can

hamper the effectiveness of relief operations using land vehicles, the

strategic use of aerial vehicles like planes and helicopters could help to

overcome these restrictions.

The battle for Britain was won, among other reasons, due to the

Allies’ airlifts that helped sustain the British population (Wilmot, 1997).

The Russians survived Germany’s invasion due to a similar effort by the

Allies who used parachute-dropped supplies to sustain the Russian troops

Washington Academy of Sciences

47

and general populace (Wilmot, 1997). While ihe glorified efforts of the

Royal Air Force and the well-documented Russian policy of “scorch and

burn” have been established rightly as the key factors in these battles, the

air-drops of aid served as important contributors to the outcomes of the

two conflicts.

Like war, post-disaster logistics is more of an art than a science.

The money spent on using aerial methods in the rather unglamorous field

of humanitarian logistics presents a serious issue for logisticians. Money is

the most liquid asset available to relief logisticians. The prudent use of

money is crucial to maximizing the number of lives saved after a disaster.

Aerial methods are considerably more expensive than land-based logistics

operations. Due to these inlierent costs, aerial vehicles are seldom used for

relief delivery operations — and are actually used only as a last resort. The

logistician is forced to examine the use of aerial delivery with extreme

scrutiny because its trade-off value is particularly high. With a cost of

roughly 30 to 80 times higher than the use of land transport in most post-

disaster situations, the use of helicopters is abandoned for cheaper

alternatives.

Based on typical disaster conditions and scenarios, pockets of

disasters victims may be left without access to external aid for long

durations of time. Instead of choosing an expensive method to reach them,

the choice may be made to wait until the repair of the local infrastructure

before a substantial influx of external aid can commence.

Paradigm Shift

With the above situation predominant in the field of disaster

logistics today, Sinha and Dr. Realff initially discussed the prospect of

change. They analyzed the notion of creating new supply lines after a

disaster, rather than focusing on improving the rate of infrastructure repair.

New supply lines, functioning as an infrastructure independent of the local

roads and bridges, could prove useful in maximizing the reach of

logisticians in disaster-affected regions.

However, the new supply lines would need to meet other criteria,

as well. In order to make any difference in the field of disaster logistics,

they would need to have the potential of rapid deployment — at least

quicker than the time required to repair the pre-existing infrastructure.

They would also need to offer other benefits over infrastructure repair,

such as versatility in application and the ability to be deployed in a variety

of disaster scenarios with ease. They would also need to be scalable with

Summer 2013

48

both the flow of resources that could be managed, as well as the distances

that could be traversed. Most importantly, they would need to be cheaper

than the use of aerial methods — in fact, much cheaper initially to

convince logisticians to use them in place of other existing approaches.

As TOHL began taking its first steps towards viewing disaster

logistics through a new paradigm. Dr. Realff provided an important piece

of advice. Based on the radii of downtown sections of the world’s major

cities, he proposed that any supply lines that could cost-effectively and

rapidly create a flow of resources such as water over a distance of 10

kilometers or more — and could do so for many types of disasters with

relative ease — would be valuable to a logistician. Such a system, the

newly- formed TOHL team agreed, would have the potential to replace

current practices in the disaster logistics industry.

The traditional approach of using the pre-existing infrastructure to

carry out relief efforts could potentially be replaced with an innovative

stance of creating a rapidly deployable mobile infrastructure. In theory, the

mobile infrastructure could be slotted in place during the first stage of a

disaster response, and then removed once the pre-existing infrastructure

was rebuilt. Once installed, such supply lines would not only help increase

the range of a relief delivery effort in its first stage of response, but would

also disengage the repair of the local infrastructure from the relief effort.

Based on this line of thinking, the questions then became: What

would constitute this mobile infrastructure? What would the supply lines

be? How could they be deployed quickly, and over a variety of terrain?

How could they be cost-effective and also have the potential to scale, per

the needs of the situation?

Coiled Tubing

Answers to the above questions were found in the oil field. Sinha

had worked through the summer of 2009 in Middle Eastern oil fields. He

proposed the use of homogenous tubing, such as that used in well services

around the world, as a possible method of creating the desired mobile

infrastructure.

Historical Use of Coiled Tubing in Wartime

The earliest use of coiled tubing dates back to the second World

War, when the Allies used a similar method to create fuel supply lines to

facilitate the invasion of the Nomiandy beaches in the decisive battle that

started on D-Day (Searle, 2004). The project was named by the acronym

Washington Academy of Sciences

49

“PLUTO,” which stood for Pipelines Under I he Ocean. Spooled tubing

was laid across the English Channel. It was designed to be denser than

water so as to be concealed from view. A set of about twenty independent

tubing systems was installed for this purpose and was a crucial component

of the D-day invasion. The tubing was also designed to have a small

diameter. This not only decreased the installation time, but also served as a

safety measure since a leak in any one tube would not hamper the fuel rate

drastically.

Recent Applications of Coiled Tubing in Oil Fields

After its debut, coiled tubing regained prominence in oil field use

following a hiatus of more than 30 years. A problem faced in the

adaptation of coiled tubing for down-hole oil field operations was that the

tubing, which was used as an interface between the high down-hole

pressures and the low pressures on the ground, would snap out of the wells

and create damage. This issue initially stalled use of coiled tubing in well-

service applications. However, the creation of high-pressure injectors in

the 1980s allowed the safe insertion of coiled tubing into high-pressure

wells. Coiled tubing offered well-service companies an efficient way to

lower tools and sensors down into the well hole. It also served as a useful

supply line for tools and liquid acid over tens of thousands of feet, and

could be deployed in a matter of hours to accommodate high flow rates

during operation. It offered well-service companies an efficient method to

target particular zones in the well bore for stimulation operations. Through

the use of coiled tubing, the operator could accurately target specific

depths for acidization, and thereby minimize the loss of acid volume to

neighboring zones. Most importantly, coiled tubing worked independently

and did not require any support of the well bore casing or liners during

deployment. All of these attributes have made eoiled tubing an integral

part of oil field well-service operations.

Based on these attributes, the TOHL founders become increasingly

confident that the flexibility and strength of coiled tubing would offer an

advantageous addition to the arsenal of disaster relief logisticians. Since

coiled tubing’s first application was in logistics, they feel the technology’s

story is coming full circle with the founding of TOHL Inc.

Demonstrating Coiled Tubing Operations

The TOHL team’s first job was to adapt and test the oil field

application of coiled tubing for a new incarnation in the field of disaster

logistics. The new tubing concept and unfolding TOHL organization

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50

entailed new activities and required more staff to help with those

activities.

Based on Dr. Realff s early counsel (to focus on enabling water

flow over a distance of 10 km), the team became convinced that the use of

light, flexible, quickly-deployable, small-diameter tubing would work to

create a mobile infrastructure faster than pre-disaster infrastructure could

be restored to functionality. For humanitarian operations, the TOHL

tubing would be constructed out of high-density polyethylene (HOPE)

tubing, a material that has been certified by the U.S. Food and Drug

Administration (and similar regulatory agencies in other countries) to

carry potable water. HDPE has been tested successfully to work at a

temperature range of 60 degrees Celsius to -30 degrees Celsius without

any lasting deformation or other issues.

As the concept grew, the TOHL team also grew steadily thi'ough

the addition of motivated Georgia Tech graduates. For example, Melissa

McCoy^ and Travis Horsley‘S were instrumental in creating the first source

of funding for the budding TOHL start-up via the Start-Up Chile program.

Relocating to South America, Cohen and Horsley were able to use

their new, but limited, funding judiciously to test the viability of the

mobile infrastructure through a pilot run. TOHL’s first pilot run took place

on July 5, 2012, a windy day in the hilly outskirts of Santiago, Chile. For

this full-scale test, a helicopter with a load capacity of 1,500 pounds

carried roughly 1 kilometer of small-diameter HDPE tubing and quickly

laid a supply line through a path bursting with cacti in less than 9 minutes!

(see Figure 1)

This fast 9-minute test run helped to show that mobile

infrastructure would outpace almost any effort to repair damaged local

road infrastructure. It also showed that the concept could transcend the

likely trade-offs and challenges (such as, for example, cacti and brush)

that might hamper the use of conventional infrastructure.

Benefits of Tubing Operations for Humanitarian Logistics

We believe that mobile infrastructure offers several advantages

over conventional infrastructure in post-disaster relief situations. The

benefits primarily relate to; (1) response time and delivery optimization;

(2) the advantage of continuous delivery; and (3) more effective use of

relief personnel.

Washington Academy of Sciences

51

. 0

Figure 1. Proof-of-concept test in the mountains of Chile.

Summer 2013

52

The location of roads and bridges is fixed and cannot be altered. If

a disaster were to force victims to find refuge away from the existing

roads, their migration — however small in distance — would drastically

increase the time and effort necessary to deliver aid. During the first stages

ot disaster response, time is the most crucial commodity and is highly

correlated with the number of lives saved. Mobile infrastructure offers the

potential to lay supply lines to reach inaccessible disaster victims quickly

and to target the exact location of victims — thereby increasing the

likelihood of optimally delivering a larger amount of external aid to more

locations in a fixed period of time.

TOHL supply lines also offer another fundamental advantage over

the use of conventional or permanent infrastructure. They are inherently

continuous in nature, as opposed to the supply lines established by vehicle

transportation. The use of land or aerial vehicles requires a routine return

to a base location to ensure a constant flow of aid.

The use of conventional vehicles requires the engagement of

equipped personnel who are almost always in dire supply. This need for

personnel usually outlasts the local infrastructure repair process, as

community rebuilding is a long-term process. It requires constant

supervision by logisticians in charge to ensure that operations are running

smoothly. In contrast, the use of TOHL tubing could create a supply line

system similar to existing plumbing systems evident in some developed

countries; once installed, and with the security aspects in place, it is likely

that a TOHL system would not entail the need for constant monitoring,

barring some contingency event. This would allow a logistician to better

manage the limited time availability of relief operation personnel who are

needed for multiple purposes.

Water Delivery: Steps to Become Operational

The TOHL developers identified water as the most important

necessity for disaster victims, for readily apparent reasons. While the

average individual has the capability to survive without food for perhaps

two weeks, the same person would struggle to endure two days without

water. It was clear to the TOHL founders that a rapid way of delivering

water to disaster victims is crucial to the success of any humanitarian

logistics operation.

For water delivery, the TOHL tubing would convert the

conventional batch process of delivering bottled water with a continuous

water delivery system. It is projected that the TOHL method for water

Washington Academy of Sciences

53

delivery would be more cost-elTeetive, energy-elTicient, and

environmentally-lriendly than eonventional methods of going back and

forth, once the operational stage is reached. Getting to that stage will

involve: (1) identifying available local water sources; and (2) converting

the water to potable water for consumption by victims.

In situations where the TOHL package is used to deliver water,

local sources of water must be found, investigated, and approved in order

to source the local water for victims. From TOHL’s experience in Chile,

local sub-surface aquifers are the most common and reachable sources of

potable water for use in TOHL operations. At other locations, water could

be sourced from sun'ounding on-surface bodies of water such as seas,

lakes, and oceans, depending on their availability.

The water from the source location must be transformed into

potable water before it is pumped through the TOHL system and

transported to target locations. In order to meet water purification needs,

TOHL has developed partnerships with certain water purification

companies to ensure that TOHL’s water sources can be made potable.

TOHL has collaborated with two partners who hold U.S. patents on their

water purification technologies. They also exhibit the ability to scale up in

purification volume, and have been tested by independent third parties for

performance review. These partners are Innovative Water Technologies

and a company in Chile that has patented a plasma-based water

purification system.

TOHL has aggressively explored the use of solar power to both

drive water through the tubing system and purify the water. Based on the

particular situation evident in a disaster relief assignment, the pumps

providing the driving force for TOHL’s logistics could actually be

powered using multiple sources. Most commercial motor assemblies that

power pumps operate using diesel, petroleum, or natural gas as the fuel. If

provisions need to be established for these fuels, TOHL lines could also be

used to carry the fuel from an airport or seaport to the source of the water

for the TOHL water lines. The TOHL lines canying the fuel would

nonnally be rated for higher pressures and evaluated per more stringent

performance criteria to ensure safe transport of the fuel.

Model for Working with Local Clients

To fulfill its business plan, the TOHL enteiprise is working

aggressively to accumulate a global network of local clients, and has

developed a model for working with those clients. Once a TOHL package

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54

has been supplied to a local client, the most sustainable way to incorporate

it into the tramework of tools used by local logisticians is by: (1) training

the local workforce of logisticians; and (2) providing an option for

maintenance and consulting if/when required in the future.

Training the workforces of TOHL’s clients will allow those clients

to integrate the TOHL package seamlessly into their pre-established

logistical framework and optimize the TOHL application for local use.

This would necessitate, for example, identifying a local power source for

driving the system pumps. TOHL management believes that empowering

clients with ownership of the package will allow the speediest response in

the event of a disaster.

There is also the option of having the TOHL management team

available on-site to assist with a disaster response. During the later tubing

removal stage, TOHL can provide assistance, although the earlier training

stage should help ensure the user will be sufficiently capable of carrying

out this operation independently.

Addressing Risks and Uncertainties

Disasters, natural or human-caused, are clouded by uncertainty,

regardless of the methods used for disaster relief Disaster logistics is, by

nature, an inexact discipline because it depends largely on the post-

disaster state of the local infrastructure — and this varies, based on not

only its pre-disaster condition, but also the extent and type of the disaster.

For this reason, every operation must be considered in isolation, and every

solution must be tailor-made to suit the situation being tackled. There are

levels of uncertainties associated with almost every factor of a relief

operation, from equipment needs and security concerns to local

geography.

Preparing for Equipment Needs

The TOHL group has developed a network of service providers

and suppliers in North America and Chile for the necessary helicopters,

tubing, and pumps. The above model for working with local clients is

intended to help establish an even broader network throughout the world.

As noted, subject to client needs and the local availability of energy, the

pumps that are used could be powered by diesel, natural gas, wind or solar

power. The local availability of parts required for a TOHL operation can

play a role in detemiining the feasibility of an operation and its associated

costs. Some cost uncertainties can be overcome by basing cost estimates

Washington Academy of Sciences

55

on the industry standards for necessary items such as, for example, pump

specifications and pressure ratings.

Tubing System Security

System security is an important factor in humanitarian relief With

other types of operations and applications (such as oil and gas), the tubing

would typically be installed on land owned by known entities, making the

possibility for vandalism less likely. We assume that security provisions

for a hypothetical TOHL operation on privately-owned land should be

similarly easy to establish. In the field of humanitarian logistics, however,

the issue of security could be a factor as disaster victims who are battling

the disaster conditions, possible staiwation, and each other may be prone to

causing infrastructure damage for their own gains. TOHL has devised

three methods to mitigate the security issue, as described below.

Where possible, it is recommended that, post-installation, the

tubing be buried several feet underground. HOPE tubing has historically

shown positive results under the pressure of soil resting on it. Extensive

tests to verify this were conducted by the Plastics Pipe Institute in

collaboration with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, with positive

results. This signifies that TOHL tubing used in humanitarian logistics

could be buried.^ Doing so would add a physical layer of protection and

make vandalism more difficult. It would also help to stabilize the tubing

and ensure that environmental conditions do not rupture it or interfere with

the continuous flow of supplies.

TOHL management has learned that, in a humanitarian crisis zone,

the single most important factor in ensuring the security of the equipment

and crew is the relief organization’s relationship with the local community

leaders. Therefore, a second strategy for mitigating the potential problem

of vandalism is to acquire the approval of the local leaders for the supply

line. This will help ensure that the community will take ownership of the

physical infrastructure and equipment, once installed and operational.

TOHL’s management also explored security strategies with the

widely-known behavioral economist, Dan Ariely, and his research group.

The author of the best-seller. Predictably Irrational (2008), Ariely

advocates the use of empirically-found truths of human behavior to solve

societal problems. His research associate, Jamie Foehl, assisted the TOHL

team in devising several additional security mitigation strategies. One such

strategy would be to reduce the supply flow rate in the event of a tube

rupture, and make sure that the local public is well informed in advance of

Summer 2013

56

the consequences of such an action. Another mitigation measure would be

to place markers that show the distance to the target location along the

length of any unburied tubing. This would help assure people that they are

not far from the end of the tubing line and can soon reach the location for

access to supplies without having to take drastic negative action before

then.

Cost Estimates and Comparisons

The cost parameters associated with a disaster logistics operation

are a major consideration in any scenario. Since TOHL conception, the

founders have spent a considerable portion of their time examining the

costs of implementing a TOHT operation, and verifying its ability to

compete with conventional logistics from an economic standpoint.

The team established a heuristic for the operational results of

installing 1 kilometer (or 0.6 miles) of small-pressure tubing (with a rating

of roughly 250 pounds per square inch) based on several terrain scenarios,

as follows:

Case 1: Installing 1 km of tubing over difficult terrain but with no

height change, the flow rate delivered from the source location to a

target location is estimated to be 300 liters per minute or more. In

this scenario, the achieved flow rate could conservatively support

over 300,000 people a day (assuming -1.5 liters per person per

day).

Case 2: A positive elevation change of approximately 30 meters

from the source to target would deliver a reduced flow rate of

about 8 liters per minute. In this scenario, we estimate that the flow

rate could support approximately 7,500 people a day.

As is evident from the flow rates in cases 1 and 2, if the height

difference between the source and target locations were reduced, the

delivery rate could increase exponentially.

In the above cases, the cost of a TOHL team installing 1 kilometer

of tubing using a helicopter would be consistent. Based on the pilot run in

Chile in July 2012, 1 kilometer of tubing with the above parameters can be

installed via helicopter in less than half an hour, even in aggressive

ambient conditions such as strong winds and difficult terrain. The

installation cost would include, conservatively, the labor and helicopter

operation cost for a 2-hour period. Based on Chilean local rates, the cost

of the labor and helicopter to deploy TOHL tubing over 1 kilometer was

Washington Academy of Sciences

57

less than $3,000 (USD). Accounting for the cost of deploying the pumps,

connecting the tubing system to the power source and making the I'OIIL

line fully operational, the total installation cost for the TOHL operations

described in cases 1 and 2 would amount to $4,500 (USD) based on our

pilot study results.

While the operational cost of a TOHL system is simply the cost of

the fuel needed to run the system after installation, conventional batch

methods require regular returns of the vessels carrying supplies (i.e.,

trucks or helicopters) to the target locations. Assuming an hourly rate of

$1,000 (USD) and $40 (USD) for the use of a helicopter and truck

respectively, inclusive of the labor cost, a TOHL system is found to be

cost-effective relative to helicopter use within 2 weeks, and cost-

competitive relative to truck logistics within a month of operation in both

cases 1 and 2. This analysis assumes the helicopter is run for 6 hours per

week to meet the required flow rates, and a truck caravan is run for

roughly 50 hours per week to meet the same demand. It is important to

note here again that in post-disaster situations, the functional roads are

usually very congested and land-based vehicles suffer from severe

bottlenecks.

Comparing TOHL Estimates with Conventional Methods

The TOHL cost estimate can also be compared with the estimated

costs of conventional methods of disaster logistics when a particular

timeline is established for the analysis.

For this purpose, TOHL’s management communicated with

disaster operation managers for various humanitarian organizations that

were active in Haiti after the 2010 earthquake. They learned about the

conditions that existed in the immediate aftermath of the quake, including:

the ground situation; the distances between the Haitian airport in Port-Au-

Prince and the key relief camps; and, the height differences between the

airport and those locations. Given the existing parameters, they made the

following estimates:

• We project it would have taken a TOHL team less than 48

hours after the required equipment arrived at the airport to have

installed a 7-kilometer (approximately 4.3-mile) tubing system

to a major victims’ camp outside of Santiago.

Summer 2013

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• The tubing could have provided water at volumes of 500 liters

per minute. It is estimated that this would support a population

of more than 450,000 with their water needs.

• The cost for such an operation is estimated to be approximately

$150,000, inclusive of the installation cost, water treatment

provisions, and pump and motor assemblies.

It turns out that actual figures incurred for the conventional

logistics used at the time are not available for comparison purposes.

However, it is important to note that a response time of 48 hours to

provide potable water was not even possible with conventional methods,

given the tools that were available there at the time, hi parts of Port-Au-

Prince and Haiti, the time required for infrastructure repair was more than

60 days, which denied the logisticians a cost-effective method to deliver

aid to the inhabitants. For particular densely-populated population centers

in the vicinity of Port-Au-Prince, TOHL lines could have established a

reliable supply of potable water within 72 hours of the necessary

equipment reaching the Port-Au-Prince airport, the only functional

international airport in the country in the immediate aftermath of the

earthquake.

In summary, these early economic analyses reveal several general

findings at this point about the use of mobile infrastructure in disaster

relief Mobile infrastructure appears to be a practical alternative to the

restoration of permanent infrastructure. It may offer a cost-effective option

relative to the use of aerial vehicles dropping in supplies and other

resources. And, from an operational standpoint, it is definitely competitive

with the use of land vehicles for delivering the same aid in most

contemporary scenarios evident globally.

Conclusion

The TOHL concept is the result of an unfolding paradigm shift

aimed at tackling existing trade-offs facing the field of disaster logistics.

Instead of looking at ways to repair conventional permanent infrastructure,

the TOHL group is devising a method for deploying mobile infrastructure.

Such a method could provide a logistician with versatility and flexibility

in operations through continuous supply lines for delivering resources

needed immediately after a disaster.

Application of the TOHL concept to disaster logistics centers

primarily on exploiting the ability to deploy rapidly in isolated regions or

Washington Academy of Sciences

59

areas where the existing infrastructure cannot support the delivery of

relief. TOHL’s supply lines could be deployed initially using aerial

vehicles. This would provide the ability to deliver aid thereafter without

the later need for aerial vehicles.

Based on economic analyses conducted by the TOHL founders, the

installation of mobile infrastructure offers not only a practical alternative

to the restoration of permanent infrastructure, but also a cost-effective

option relative to the use of aerial vehicles dropping in supplies and other

resources. From an operational standpoint, mobile infrastructure is

competitive with the use of land vehicles for delivering the same aid.

In the laying of a supply line in the mountains of Chile, the new

TOHL enterprise demonstrated that a new tool can be added to the arsenal

of disaster logisticians. Since the successful proof of concept in July 2012,

the TOHL team has been constantly working toward applying the idea of

using coiled tubing toward modern-day humanitarian relief.

The use of tubing proved crucial in the decisive battle of the

Second World War. Those who valued human freedom and choice

defeated those who did not in World War II, and an important step was

taken at that time toward a more ideal world. The TOHL concept of today

may also be a step in the right direction for the fields of disaster logistics

and humanitarian relief - toward more ideal methods for logisticians

attempting to improve their provision of post-disaster relief.

^ Benjamin Cohen is the co-founder of TOHL, Inc. and currently serves as its President

and CEO. A Civil Engineering graduate from Georgia Tech, he has spearheaded TOHL’s

emergence as a business and has been responsible for the creation of the start-up's base

of operations in Santiago, Chile. Mr. Cohen is also an Echoing Green Fellow, 2013.

2

HOPE (High-Density Polyethylene) is a dense form of one of the major plastic

materials used in plumbing and agricultural applications. HOPE offers robust

performance over temperature variations and has been approved by many organizations

worldwide to carry potable water safely. HDPE also offers the advantages of light-weight

and low-to-medium pressure ratings that can allow significant water flow rates during

operation. HDPE has a proven lifetime of up to 40 years and can be installed multiple

times without showing any signs of fatigue. This compares favorably against the fatigue

evident in stainless steel tubing after multiple coiling and uncoiling cycles.

Summer 2013

60

Melissa McCoy serves an advisor for TOHL. She joined the team in August 201 1 and

worked on the ground in Chile in September 2012. Her engineering education, work

experience, Spanish fluency, and expanded network has allowed her to contribute to

TOHL on both technical and business issues, and she now focuses on operations and

external relations tasks of the venture.

Travis Horsley is a partner of TOHL. Travis is part of the original TOHL team, and was

instrumental in the strategic partnerships in Atlanta and Santiago to move the company

from a tested technology to a scalable solution for fluid transportation for industry and

humanitarian logistics. Travis manages promotion in local and international media,

gauging new strategic markets for product entry, and seeking investment via business

incubators and angel networks.

^ Burial may be more feasible in the event of certain types of disasters more than others,

as it is unlikely the tubing could be buried cost-effectively if it is laying on a pile of

rubble created by an earthquake. Also, if a line were to be buried in the wrong place, it’s

possible that a flood could wash it out.

6

It is conceivable that the tubing could also have delivered granular food or small

medical supplies. The use of TOHL tubing to deliver solid packages has not been tested,

but TOHL’s management team states the tubing has the capability to deliver fluids and

solids through an inner diameter of more than 10 centimeters. They anticipate this may be

sufficient to handle more than 95% of the immediate requirements in a first-stage disaster

response operation. Solid packages would be easier to transport as individual packages,

and could be strung together through plastic welds to create a continuous transfer of

material through the supply lines. The non-food materials required in the first stage of a

disaster response are usually small medical supplies such as pills and needles.

References

Ariely, Dan. 2008. Predictably Irrational. Harper Collins, USA. ISBN 978-0-06-

135323-9.

Disasters Emergency Committee, London, http://www.dec.org.uk/haiti-

earthguake-facts-and-figures

Wilinot, Chester. 1952, reissued 1997. (Written in part by Christopher Daniel

McDevitt). The Struggle for Europe . Ware, Hertfordshire: Wordsworth

Editions Ltd. ISBN 1-85326-677-9.

Searle, Adrian. 2004. PLUTO - Pipe-Line Under the Ocean. 2”'* Edition.

Shanklin, Isle of Wight: Shanklin Chine. ISBN 0-9525876-0-2.

The Plastics Pipe Institute. 2006. Handbook of Polyethylene Pipe. ISBN- 13: 978-

0977613106.

Washington Academy of Sciences

61

Bio

Apoorva Sinha is the conceiver and co-founder of TOHL, Inc. and

currently serves as its Vice-President of Research & Development. A

Chemical Engineering graduate from Georgia Tech, Mr. Sinha is currently

pursuing a Master's in Chemical Engineering at the University of Calgary,

and is very interested in innovation. Ele is responsible for providing

leadership in creating new avenues for the expansion of TOHE’s

applications into new industries, particularly the oil and gas and marine

salvage industries, among others.

Summer 2013

Washington Academy of Sciences

63

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Published by the Washington Academy of

Sciences (202) 326-8975

Email: iournal@washacadsci nrg

Website: www.washacadsci.nrq

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1898

Journal of the

WASHINGTON

ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Volume 99 Number 3 Fall 2013

Contents

Board of Discipline Editors ii

Editor’s Comments S. Rood iii

Humans to Mars: Stay Longer, Go Sooner, Prepare Now D. W. Gage 1

A Brief History of Government Policies to Promote Commercial Space

B. Lai 25

Estimating the Climate Impact of Transportation Fuels: Moving Beyond

Conventional Lifecycle Analysis Towards Integrated Modeling Systems

Scenario Analysis M A. Delucchi 43

The Violinist’s Thumb: Stories about Genetics, Retro Diagnosis, and

Human Life S. Kean 67

Annual Awards Banquet Photos and 2013 Awards Program 81

In Memoriam - Clifford Lanham (1938-2013) 95

Membership Application 97

instructions to Authors 98

Affiliated Institutions 99

Affiliated Societies and Delegates 100

ISSN 0043-0439 Issued Quarterly at Washington DC

Fall 2013

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Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences

Editor Sally A. Rood, PhD sallv.rood2@,gmail.com

Board of Discipline Editors

The Journal oj the Washington Academy of Sciences has an 11-

member Board of Discipline Editors representing many scientific and

technical fields. The members of the Board of Discipline Editors are

affiliated with a variety of scientific institutions in the Washington area

and beyond - government agencies such as the National Institute of

Standards and Technology (NIST); universities such as George Mason

University (GMU); and professional associations such as the Institute of

Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).

Anthropology

Astronomy

Biology/Biophysics

Botany

Chemistry

Environmental Natural

Sciences

Health

History of Medicine

Physics

Science Education

Systems Science

Emanuela Appetiti eappetiti@,hotmail.com

Sethanne Howard sethanneh@msn.com

Eugenie Mielczarek mielczar@phvsics.gmu.edu

Mark Holland maholland@salisburv.edu

Deana Jaber diaber@marvmount.edu

Terrell Erickson terrell.erickson 1 @wdc. nsda.gov

Robin Stombler rstombler@auburnstrat.com

Alain Touwaide atouwaide@hotmail.com

Katherine Gebbie gebbie@.nist.gov

Jim Egenrieder iim@deepwater.org

Elizabeth Corona elizabethcorona@gmail.com

Washington Academy of Sciences

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Editor’s Comments

The articles in this issue reflect two particular interests of the

Washington Academy of Sciences: (1) space programs/ astronomy, and

(2) research related to the environment.

Space Programs and Astronomy

The first article, “Humans to Mars: Stay Longer, Go Sooner,

Prepare Now,” reflects the passions of the author — Douglas Gage, a

former DARPA program manager — on sending humans to Mars. The

article discusses the private and NASA roles required to do this.

The second article, “A Brief History of Government Policies to

Promote Commereial Space” by Bhavya Lai, discusses the history of

both private and government support of private sector activities in the

United States for promoting the commercial space sector. Lessons can be

drawn from attempts by U.S. agencies to support this sector according to

the paper — part of a study for the White House Office of Science and

Technology Policy.

[Commercial time out: Given our space/astronomy theme here, fm

taking this opportunity to “plug” the Academy’s most recent monograph,

A Century of Astronomy from the Journal of the Washington Academy

of Sciences (August 2012), available through Amazon.com!]

Research Related to the Environment

Our third article of this issue is on “Estimating the Climate

Impact of Transportation Fuels” — and is especially relevant because it

highlights the timely example of biofuels to illustrate the usefulness of a

new analytical application called Integrated Modeling Systems Scenario

Analysis. The author, Mark Delucchi, is developing this approach at the

University of Califomia-Davis Institute of Transportation Studies.

Academy Activities

This Fall’s issue is rounded out with the fascinating and

entertaining speech by author Sam Kean at the Washington Academy of

Sciences annual awards banquet in October 2013. Also featured is a photo

montage of the program and awards ceremony, and a listing of this year’s

awardees and their fields.

We include here, regretfully, a notice of the passing of Cliff

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Lanham, a Washington Academy of Sciences member for many years and

delegate representing the Washington Area Chapter of the Technology

Transfer Society.

Before closing, Td like to acknowledge the local role of Kaye

Breen, President and CEO of the nonprofit Ballston Science and

Technology Alliance (BSTA), in identifying Washington, D.C. area

experts in many fields of research who continue to enthrall the public in

our region through BSTA’s Cafe Scientifique.

Lastly, please note this new email address for communicating

regarding Journal content: sallv.rood2@gmail.com

Sally A. Rood, PhD, Editor

Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences

sally.rood2@gmail.com

Washington Academy of Sciences

Humans to Mars:

Stay Longer, Go Sooner, Prepare Now

1

Douglas W. Gage

XPM Technologies, Arlington, Virginia

Abstract

Mars is the appropriate next destination for humans in space (not

the Moon or an asteroid). Our initial program should send only two

6-person crews to Mars, and they should each remain on the

surface for 8 years (as opposed to 5 crews, each for 18 months).

The key challenges to the success of the Mars enterprise relate to

the surface stay (as opposed to the travel to and from Mars). These

challenges will be most effectively and efficiently addressed with

long-term low-level efforts which; will involve many disciplines;

should involve many organizations; and should be initiated now.

NASA’s unique skills and experience should be applied

immediately to answer several specific critical questions.

Introduction

While the Martian environment is extremely harsh to human

sensibilities, the planet Mars is far and away the single best choice for an

initial extended human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO).

Balancing the difficulty of getting there, the resources available there, the

challenges of keeping people alive there, and the probable payoffs of

exploring there, no other extraterrestrial destination can compete (see

Appendix B). If we can’t demonstrate that humans can live on Mars, then

we as a species aren’t going anywhere else beyond Earth; moreover, if we

do in fact demonstrate how humans can successfully live on Mars, we can

fruitfully apply some of the lessons we learn doing this to the challenges

we face living on Earth. While science fiction has treated the planet Mars

as its number one destination in space for over a century [1], actual space

exploration efforts are only now becoming seriously focused on sending

humans to Mars.

This paper was first presented at the June 4, 2013 Cafe Scientifique sponsored

by the Ballston Science and Technology Alliance, www.arlingtonvirginiausa.com/bsta.

Kaye Breen, President & CEO.

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The Planet Mars

Facts and figures about Mars are available from numerous print

and web resourees, including Wikipedia, and many images are available

on the websites of specific missions, such as the Mars Reeonnaissanee

Orbiter (MRO) or Mars Seience Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity. Individual

referenee eitations have not been included in this paper for each individual

mission or for every scientific term for which Wikipedia provides good

introductory infomiation and/or the obvious web search will lead to an

appropriate website. Physical values presented here should be treated as

close approximations — for example, equatorial diameter is slightly larger

than polar diameter, atmospheric pressure changes daily and with the

seasons, and Curiosity’s reports of atmospheric composition differ from

those returned by Viking [2].

Mars is a small planet, whose diameter of 6,779 km is just over

half of Earth’s 12,756 km. As a result, gravity at the surface of Mars is just

37.6% of Earth’s (3.7 m/s , compared to Earth’s 9.8 m/s and our Moon’s

1.6 m/s“). The Martian day (“sol”) is 24 hours and 39 minutes long,

remarkably close to Earth’s 24 hours. The Martian year is 687 Earth days,

or 668 Martian sols.

Mars’ orbit deviates significantly from circular, ranging between

206.6 and 249.2 million km from the Sun (compared to a near-circular

149.6 million km orbit for Earth), and Martian seasons are therefore not

equal in length. Mars is closest to Earth when Earth is directly between it

and the Sun (Earth-based astronomers call this “opposition,” since Mars

and the Sun are opposite in the Earth’s sky) — between 57.0 and 99.6

million km, depending on Mars’s distance from the Sun at this point.

Conversely, Mars is most distant when the Sun is directly between

Earth and Mars (Earth-based astronomers call this “conjunction,” since

Mars and the Sun appear to be very close in the Earth’s sky) — between

356.2 and 398.8 million km. Round trip light or radio communieation

between Earth and Mars therefore takes between 6.3 and 11.1 minutes at

opposition, and between 39.6 and 44.3 minutes at conjunction. The

synodic period, the time from one opposition to the next, or from one

conjunction to the next, is about 26 months (780 days).

Mars receives an average insolation of 580 w/m , about 43% of

that received on Earth (1,360 w/m ). Temperatures on the surface of Mars

average -63C, ranging from +32C to -140C. Southern winter is much more

severe than northern, to the point that enough atmospheric CO2 freezes out

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onto the south polar cap to reduce the atmospheric pressure across the

whole planet by about 30%. The planet’s tilt, or obliquity, is about 25.2

degrees, remarkably close to Earth’s 23.5 degrees. However, while Earth’s

obliquity varies by no more than about 2.5 degrees because of the

presence of our large Moon, Martian obliquity varies from about 10

degrees to close to 50 degrees over time scales of tens to hundreds of

thousands of years. This implies that the planet continues to experience

major climate changes — large changes in atmospheric temperature and

pressure and the periodic redistribution of Martian water — on a time

scale roughly similar to that of Earth’s ice age cycles.

Martian atmospheric pressure is nominally about 0.5% to 1% of

Earth’s 1013 mbars, and, as on Earth, diminishes with increasing altitude.

In addition, as mentioned above, atmospheric pressure drops by about

30% during southern winter, and varies daily on the order of 10% due to a

thermally driven diurnal atmospheric “tide.” The Martian atmosphere is

about 96% carbon dioxide, 2% nitrogen, and 2% argon [2]. Geologic

evidence indicates that Mars had major oceans 4 billion years ago, and

today water makes up most of the polar caps and is also widely distributed

across major parts of the planet, presumably as subsurface ice, brines or

hydrates. As described above, major redistributions of this water likely

occur over timescales of 10,000 to 1 million years. The detection of

abundant water has rekindled hopes for the possibility of Martian life

present or past, as has the recent discovery of a broad spectrum of

extremophile life on Earth.

Exploring Mars

The exploration of Mars by unmanned spacecraft began in the

1 960s with the American Mariner flyby missions. It continued through the

1970s with the Viking orbiters and landers. This was followed by various

orbiters; the Pathfinder mission with its Sojourner rover in 1997; the Mars

Exploration Rovers (MERs) Spirit and Opportunity which landed in

January 2004; 2008 ’s high latitude Phoenix lander; and the Mars Science

Laboratory (MSL) rover Curiosity which landed in August 2012.

Interspersed with the successful missions were many American and

Soviet/Russian mission failures, most recently the 2011 Russian Phobos-

Grunt effort to return a sample from Phobos. [3]

Perhaps the first serious plan for transporting humans to Mars was

outlined by Wemher von Braun in his 1953 book Das Mars Projekt {The

Mars Project) [4], which proposed an ambitious mission profile involving

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giant “three stage ferry vessels” to Low Earth Orbit, “space ships”

between LEO and orbit around Mars, and winged “landing boats” to and

from the Martian surface. (It was then believed that the Martian

atmospheric pressure was about 12% of Earth’s, some 10 to 20 times

higher than we now know it to be.)

While von Braun’s Mars Project was mere speculation in the early

1950s, the success of the Apollo program in the late 1960s led many

people to expect that a human mission to Mars would be undertaken in

short order. Instead, the financial pressures of the Vietnam War and the

collapse of the Soviet Moon program steered NASA onto the very

different path of developing first the space shuttle and then the space

station. Hopes for a human Mars program were revived in 1990 when

President George H. W. Bush proposed the “Space Exploration Initiative”

(SEI) [5], but NASA responded with an unaffordable plan bloated by the

inclusion and extension of all of NASA’s existing and proposed research

efforts. SEI was dead on arrival in Congress.

In the early 1990s, in response to the demise of SEI, Martin

Marietta engineers Bob Zubrin and David Baker developed a mission

concept that came to be called “Mars Direcf’ [6], and several of its key

features have since been incorporated into NASA and other “Design

Reference Missions” (DRMs) [7]:

1) A conjunction mission comprised of a 6+ month transit to Mars,

approximately 1 8 months spent on the surface of Mars, and a 6+

month return;

2) Pre-emplacement of unmanned assets, including an Earth Return

Vehicle (ERV) or Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV); and

3) In-situ resource utilization (ISRU) to generate fuel (methane) and

oxidizer (liquid oxygen) from Martian atmospheric carbon dioxide

and hydrogen possibly extracted from Martian water.

While the partitioning of functional elements into specific vehicles differs

among the various proposals, this nominally 30+ month conjunction

mission profile leveraging pre-emplacement of resources and ISRU now

represents a consensus both inside and outside NASA. Unfortunately,

while the Mars Direct concept provided at high level a technologically

feasible and relatively affordable blueprint for a manned Mars mission, the

political will to pursue such a program did not materialize, partly because

of the constituency-driven nature of the NASA enterprise. The dream of

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human Mars exploration has been kept alive by the Mars Society [8],

founded and led by Zubrin, and other efforts of Mars enthusiasts [9].

In 2004, President George W. Bush promulgated a “Vision for

Space Exploration” (VSE) [10] with the stated goal of sending humans “to

the Moon, Mars, and Beyond.” In fact, however, the Constellation

program developed under the leadership of then NASA Administrator

Michael Griffin was focused almost completely on getting Americans

back into space after retiring the space shuttle fleet in 2010 and then

returning to the Moon (nominally by 2020). It paid only the feeblest lip

service to the Vision’s stated long term goal of putting humans on Mars.

In 2009, the Obama administration chartered the “Review of U.S.

Human Spaceflight Plans Committee” (a.k.a. the “Augustine Committee”)

to assess the viability of the Constellation program. The Committee’s

report [11] found that NASA’s human spaceflight budgets, as

programmed, were totally inadequate. It proposed two alternative long

range options, both requiring increased funding:

1 ) Returning humans to the Moon, or

2) Following a “Flexible Path,” developing the capability for

extended (up to 1 year) human flights beyond Low Earth Orbit, to

visit Near Earth Objects (NEOs) and the Earth-Sun Lagrange

points.

Getting humans to Mars was explicitly identified as the long-term goal,

but characterized as financially out of reach. The Obama administration

cancelled Constellation, but elected to continue the development of the

Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and the heavy-lift Space

Launch System (SLS). The Asteroid Retrieval and Recovery Mission

(ARRM) was announced in April 2013 — see Appendix B, “Alternatives

and Distractions.”

Extended Missions, Program, and Base

As noted in the last section, the consensus profile for bringing

humans to Mars is a conjunction mission comprising 6+ month transits to

and from Mars, with a surface stay of about 1 8 months.

Conjunction Mission Profile

Using a “Hohmann trajectory” — an elliptical orbit tangent to the

orbit of Earth when closest to the Sun, and tangent to the orbit of Mars

when farthest — minimizes transit energy requirements, and hence cost. It

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is necessary, of course, that when the vehicle arrives at the destination

orbit, the destination planet should actually be at that same point in the

orbit. This means that Hohmann launch opportunities between Earth and

Mars occur every 26 months in each direction, with the return launch

window from Mars to Earth occurring about 2 months before the outbound

window. A crew can thus return after 1 8 months on the surface, but also

after 44 months, or after 70, 96, and so on.

Program Context Dictates Extended Missions

Since expected high costs make it unlikely that we will invest in

developing a system capable of taking humans to Mars and then use it for

just one 18-month surface-stay mission, NASA’s Design Reference

Architecture (DRA) 5.0 assumes three successive independent missions

[12]. We should consider how a sequence of manned Mars flights should

be configured to create a rational program — one which maximizes

scientific payoff consistent with minimizing costs and risks (maximizing

crew safety).

The Apollo program provides a baseline for comparison. A series

of 6 independent sorties were made to different locations on the lunar

surface in the three and a half years between July 1969 and December

1972, with surface stays ranging from 22 to 75 hours and total mission

durations from launch to splashdown of between 8 and 1 3 days. Launch

windows occurred every month when the lighting at the plamied landing

site was appropriate, so the factor limiting the pace of launches was the

assembly and checkout of the required Saturn launch vehicle stages and

Apollo command, service, and lunar modules.

This will not be the case with Mars missions. In order to keep the

hardware production line and launch and mission control facilities active,

we will need to launch during every window — every 26 months. This

means that:

• The second mission crew will launch from Earth 2 months after the

first has launched on its return from Mars;

• For a period of 4 months, we will have 2 crews in space; and

• The second crew will not arrive on Mars until 8 months after the

first crew has left.

Zubrin proposed that the landing points for successive Mars sorties

should be chosen no more than about 800 km apart, so that backup

resources would always be “jusf’ a long rover ride away. This would be

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prudent, of course, but it raises a fairly obvious question: If we want to

place a crew at point B on the surface of Mars, and already have a crew at

point A about 800 km away from point B, why should we lly the first crew

hundreds of millions of km back to Earth, and send a second crew all the

way from Earth? Why not send a good ground transport vehicle and plan

to have the first crew drive it from point A to the prepared site at point B?

The risks of spaceflight are associated first with launch (shuttle

Challenger), then with landing (shuttle Columbia, Soyuz 1 and Soyuz 1 1),

and thirdly with cruise (Apollo 13). Being on the ground, on Mars as well

as on Earth, is intrinsically much safer than being in space, and it is

relatively easy to make it safer still. Since the basic conjunction mission

calls for more time on the surface of Mars (18 months) than in transit (12-

1 4 months), it pays to invest in making the surface stay as safe as possible.

In fact, we have a “virtuous cycle”:

1) The longer we are planning to stay on the surface of Mars, the

safer we can and should make it; and

2) The safer it is on the surface of Mars, the longer we should plan to

stay!

Consider the following program plan: An initial crew (of 4 to 6

people) is launched to a carefully prepared site, and remains on the surface

of Mars for a full 96 months, returning on the fourth minimum-energy

Hohmann opportunity. A second crew follows to the same site 26 months

later, and also stays for 96 months. Thus, we have 8-12 people at the base

for a period of 70 months, we have no gaps in crew presence on Mars, and

the mission operations team never has to deal with two crews in transit at

the same time. We continue to build assets at the initial landing site,

expanding to a second site only when the first base has achieved true

critical mass. Instead of launching an Earth Return Vehicle to Mars 26

months before the first crew, we send it 26 months after the second crew.

Moreover, the first return launch of the ERV can be an unmanned test

flight carrying Mars samples back to Earth, and we will have the

advantage of having “ground crew” to service its launch. Finally, because

we are delaying the launch of the first ERV, we can also defer its

development, thus employing a smaller team of rocket developers for a

longer period of time [13].

Table 1 below presents a comparison of a Base First program with

a program comprised of 5 independent 18-month conjunction missions.

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Table 1. Comparison of the “Base First” plan with a program comprised

of a sequence of five independent conjunction missions

Extended Missions Dictate Early Base Establishment

It is clear that supporting a crew of 8-12 people on the surface of

Mars for 10 full years is a very different proposition from supporting 4-6

people for 18 months. NASA’s DRA 5.0 and other Design Reference

Missions all the way back to the Mars Direct plan envision the crew living

inside a habitat sitting on the surface. EDL (NASA-speak for Entry,

Descent and Landing) to get this nominally 10-meter diameter 40-tonne

“tuna can” unit to the surface of Mars in one piece represents a major

technological challenge.

The alternative approach proposed here for the “Base First” plan

would have the crew live and work in underground tunnels constructed by

robots before the crew arrives, creating a true Mars Base. Living

underground would provide much better protection than a surface habitat

against radiation, which — while much less intense on the Martian surface

than in interplanetary space — is much more intense than on Earth or in

Low Earth Orbit [14]. This approach also carries the additional advantage

that a crew-landing vehicle could be much smaller than the 40 tonne tuna

can habitat, greatly reducing the structural mass that would have to be

brought from Earth, and radically simplifying the Entry/Descent/Landing

problem [13]. For comparison, the Apollo Command Module (CM)

weighed 6 tonnes, while the Apollo Lunar Module (EM), including both

descent and ascent stages, was 1 5 tonnes.

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The underground space would be quickly and continually

expanded to eventually include:

• living, sleeping, and dining areas, galley, pantry, and garden;

• medical/dental clinic with mini-intensive care unit, exercise

facilities (gym and track), spa, and swimming pool;

• medical, biological, chemical, and geological laboratories;

• manufacturing and repair shops; and

• storage for food, other supplies, spare parts, and collections of

samples.

Many critical systems will be required to support human life and mission

operations — including themial control, air, water, waste, computing, and

communications — but these various subsystems can be installed in the

constructed underground base in a much more loosely coupled manner

than would be possible in a tightly integrated habitat transported from

Earth, thus simplifying component repair and replacement.

The Challenges of the Base First Program

The concept of a base on Mars is obviously not a new one;

however, a common thread among mainstream (i.e., space agencies and

contractors) thinking is the implicit assumption that the establishment of a

base should occur only after a sequence of human sorties to identify the

best location. The key arguments in this paper are that we should:

1) Plan for a Mars base beginning with the first humans we send to

Mars;

2) Plan to send fewer people to Mars, but have each of them stay

much longer; and

3) Invest heavily up-front in developing and refining the surface

segment of the human Mars mission because travelers to Mars will

spend (much) more time on the surface of Mars than in space, and

this is where the critical challenges and payoffs lie.

This will require either that NASA move well beyond its traditional focus

on space transportation systems, or that one or more other entities assume

a leadership role in the Mars exploration enterprise.

One very recently initiated effort that is decidedly not mainstream

is MarsOne [15], a Dutch-based organization working to establish a

permanent Martian colony by sending 4-person crews to Mars starting in

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2023. Something like 100,000 people have already applied online to make

this 1-way trip to Mars. Successfully executing the MarsOne project will

require overcoming serious challenges in raising the required funding and

in actually developing the required systems in time to meet the proposed

schedule. It is not unlikely that MarsOne (like NASA) will focus very

heavily on the highly visible transportation components, at the expense of

the ground-based “system of systems” necessary to support a viable Mars

colony. The Base First strategy proposed in this paper explicitly addresses

this requirement, and — because everyone returns to Earth — it avoids a

commitment for the indefinite support of a Martian colony. On the other

hand, it is clear that Base First deliberately cultivates the option for an

informed future decision to establish a permanent base or colony.

Can Humans Survive and Succeed on a 10-year Mission?

Some may object that a mission profile calling for an 8-year stay

on the surface of Mars (and 1 0 years away from Earth) is unreasonable —

that the psychological stresses of living in such a small isolated group for

so long would put the success of the mission, if not the crew’s survival, at

unacceptable risk. However, the history (and especially the prehistory) of

humanity is one of many small groups of people migrating into the

unknown with no intention of returning, and we find many examples of

small groups that have successfully lived in nearly constant isolation,

including bands of hunter-gatherers, Inuit family groups, pre-20th century

ship crews, castaways, and some soldiers and prisoners.

However, while humans on Mars will be physically isolated from

Earth, they will have high bandwidth connectivity to the rest of the

humanity (albeit with a 6-44 minute round trip latency). They need not be

lonely; the World Wide Web will expand into the Solar System Wide

Web. But we must thoroughly explore the full range of issues associated

with long-term connected-but-physically-isolated living, including

understanding how and how well high-bandwidth long-latency network

communications can compensate for the lack of physical contact. And we

must develop an experience base on Earth before we dare send people on

such a mission. Since it is likely that the success of the mission may

depend on the “chemistry” of the specific personalities involved, it may be

that a crew should begin living together as a coherent group (if not in full

isolation) well before their launch. The psychological and psychiatric

issues associated with spaceflight have been studied since the beginning of

the space age; see, for example, [16], [17], [18].

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Since living beneath 5 meters of regolith will mitigate the radiation

hazard on the surface, the principal physiological challenge posed by the

Base First mission (beyond those posed by a 30-month conjunction

mission) is the loss of bone density and strength associated with the

outward and return 6+ month zero gravity transits and eight years of 0.38

g Mars gravity. A focused exercise regimen, possibly combined with

dietary modification, should at least partially mitigate these effects [19],

and at some point it might be possible to install a one-g centrifuge in the

base. Long-term exposure to a low-pressure high-oxygen atmosphere in

the base habitat — which could be adopted in order to reduce

Extravehicular Activity (EVA) pre-breathe time [20] [21, p. 20] — would

constitute a second physiological risk factor. However, this is a risk that

can be evaluated by experimentation on Earth (see Appendix A).

An advantage of the base-first exploration strategy is that it will

allow people to extend their stay on Mars, which would be absolutely

necessary if the Earth Return Vehicle or Mars Ascent Vehicle could not be

made ready during the return launch window, and might be desirable in

other cases. Imagine, for example, that the crew exobiologist on the first

conjunction mission were to discover living Martian life just a few weeks

before she is scheduled to return to Earth. And, of course, one of the

classic planetary exploration science fiction tropes (e.g., [22], [23], [24]) is

that, when it is time to return to Earth, one or two characters (usually a

couple) simply announce “we’re going to stay.”

Required Technologies and Tools

Viewed from an engineering perspective, it is clear that a Mars

base will constitute a complex “system of systems,” one whose

development will involve a large number of technical disciplines, and this

fact must be explicitly acknowledged if we are to succeed. Here is a listing

of some of the technologies and tools we will need to develop in order to

create a human base on Mars:

• surface nuclear power plant (nominally 150 kW electrical, plus

thermal energy)

• cryogenic storage and handling tools/sy stems

• thermal control systems (including insulation) — different on Mars

than in space

• methane (and/or propane?)-oxygen power sources (electrical,

thermal, motive; very small to very large)

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• maximally-autonomous robotic systems

• vehicles (manned and unmanned/robotic, ground and air,

pressurized and unpressurized, all sizes)

• construction technologies and equipment (including robots,

autonomous or supervised)

• communications and navigation systems (intra-base, off-base, and

off-planet; supporting systems, vehicles, and people)

• small-scale (“personal”) manufacturing technologies, paired with

extraction/ development of appropriate material feedstocks

• medical strategies/tools: auto-medicine (taking care of yourself),

para-medicine (taking care of each other), and tele-medicine

(accessing medical resources back on Earth)

• ultra-reliable computing and other IT support (redundant,

radiation-hard; wearable systems, etc.)

Not only is this not “rocket science,” it’s not even just technology. We

need to think about the following:

• construction, physiology, and robotics;

• psychology and sociology;

• nutrition, gardening, and medicine;

• architecture, history, insulation, and HVAC;

• power distribution, IT, sensors, and artificial intelligence (AI);

• biology, chemistry, geology, and seismology;

• and ...

In fact, the successful development of an effective base on Mars

will require more than a solid systems-centric engineering perspective. It

will also require a human-centric perspective, involving numerous social

as well as technical disciplines. In essence, we are attempting to design the

smallest-scale possible viable human economy and supporting ecology,

and we don’t know in advance what this “nano-society” should (or even

could) look like.

However, NASA as an organization is focused on the “rocket

science.” To understate the case considerably, “studies of surface activities

and related systems have not always been carried out to the same breadth

or depth as those focused on the space transportation and entry or ascent

systems needed for a Mars mission” [21]. Perhaps the National Science

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Foundation (NSF), with its broad scientific purview and experienee

managing U.S. Antarctic bases, might effectively participate in the

development of the Mars base.

Base Development Process and Technology Context

Developing all the pieces for an effective base on Mars will be a

complex undertaking, one quite distinct from the development of the

system that will be required to transport humans to and from Mars. What

is required is the development of an overall plan, starting from the

physiological and psychological needs of a human crew, defining their

task-oriented and other activities, leading to system and subsystem

models, assessing and adopting/adapting technologies to implement them,

and eventually validating the various subsystems through extensive testing

and simulations here on Earth [20] [25]. This should be a “spiral” process

that will be iterated until it is time to go, with multiple agencies/entities

involved (e.g., development of a surface-sited nuclear power plant by the

Department of Energy). The initiation of this activity need not and should

not wait for a specific commitment to build the Mars transportation

system. Perhaps the miost difficult challenge will be to manage a

complicated program with a relatively small budget (as compared to

rocket development), across multiple agencies, over a period of many

years.

Many technologies and systems developed for Earth will be carried

unchanged to Mars. Others will have to be adapted to the particular

situation of our Mars base. Rapidly changing technology complicates the

development proeess. For example, at what point do we decide to adopt or

adapt a given product or system for inclusion in our long-term Earth-based

Mars base prototyping/ simulation enterprise? We can freely experiment

with commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) elements, but the decision to

embark on a costly program to modify existing products for use on Mars

must not be taken too early, or we will — like the U.S. military with its

communications systems — be trapped in an expensive web of obsolete

proprietary systems even as the rest of the world adopts technologies with

much higher performance and much lower cost.

The rapid evolution of teehnology also carries short-temi

challenges with respect to what we actually send to Mars. Given the 26-

month synodic period between launch windows, an assembly-test-launch

(ATE) time that is not much shorter, and the 12-18 month COTS

electronics product innovation cycle, we will have to decide whether to

introduce a new generation of IT for each successive mission. It will

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clearly be impossible to perform a full-mission duration test of new

subsystems as they are deployed. Fortunately, the loose coupling of

subsystems in the Mars base environment will allow easy module

upgrades and the use of redundant units to ensure system-level reliability.

Conclusion

Because of the limitations placed by orbital mechanics on energy-

affordable transits between Earth and Mars (transits that last 6+ months,

and are possible only every 26 months), it would be suboptimal to execute

the initial human exploration of Mars as a sequence of independent sorties

analogous to the Apollo program. Costs and risks can be significantly

reduced by pursuing a program in which the first humans we send to Mars

remain there for many (nominally 8) years [13] [26], living and working in

a safe and productive underground base constructed in advance of their

arrival by robots [27] [28]. Twenty-six months after the first crew’s arrival,

a second crew will land at the same base, and other sites of interest can be

visited using ground vehicles. Such a program-level architecture:

• affords a continuous human presence on Mars,

• provides better shielding from radiation,

• reduces the number of crew transits from and to Earth,

• greatly reduces the maximum mass requirement for Entry/Descent/

Landing,

• permits deferred development of the return vehicle (which could

otherwise be a schedule-limiting element), and

• allows an initial unmanned return vehicle test supported by

“ground crew” to return samples to Earth.

Adoption of a “Base Firsf’ exploration program will require us to

acknowledge and engage the real challenges to the human exploration and

colonization of Mars — maintaining the safety, health, productivity, and

happiness of a very small population of humans on the surface of Mars for

an extended period of time. Apollo/Saturn proved that powerful rocket

systems can be developed in less than a decade, but the Mars surface stay

presents many specific technical and non-technical challenges that have

nothing to do with “rocket science.” Now is the time to start thinking

seriously about these issues.

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Appendix A: Short-Term Agenda for NASA

While this paper has argued strongly that preparation for a human

stay on Mars requires much more than NASA, there are several issue areas

that do require NASA’s unique expertise, and these should be addressed as

soon as possible.

Physiological Effects of Martian Gravity

Over the past several decades, many astronauts and cosmonauts on

Skylab, Mir, and the International Space Station (ISS) have experienced

periods of zero-g (microgravity) longer than the planned 6-7 month transit

to Mars. A number of serious physiological effects have been studied, and

some strategies have been developed for mitigating them, as well as for

dealing with the other challenges of zero-g — eating, showering, pooping,

etc. [29]. But we have no experience base whatsoever with Mars’s 38%

gravity. It is clear that many of the minor inconveniences of zero-g will

not apply on Mars, but we do not know to what degree (if at all) the stay

on the Martian surface will support recovery from the physiological

effects of zero-g. The longer we are planning to stay on the Martian

surface, the more critical it is to understand the long temi effects of 38%

gravity, and this can only be done in space. Experiments with mice in a

centrifuge installed on the ISS would provide an important first step.

Exploring partial gravity on the ISS has been proposed multiple times, but

never funded.

Habitat Atmosphere: Pressure and Composition

Beyond the baseline requirements of providing enough oxygen,

eliminating carbon dioxide, and managing humidity, some key factors for

selecting the atmosphere for manned spacecraft, specifically for the Mars

base habitat, are these:

• Reducing habitat pressure reduces required habitat pressure

strength and atmospheric leakage to space.

• Reducing spacesuit pressure decreases suit weight, complexity,

and cost, and increases flexibility and comfort by reducing the

work required for astronaut movement.

• The risk of decompression sickness (DCS) or “the bends” at the

start of an Extravehicular Activity (EVA) increases with increasing

ratio of nitrogen partial pressure in the habitat to the total spacesuit

pressure.

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• Increasing oxygen percentage increases flammability, complicating

both prevention and suppression of fire.

The ISS, like the space shuttle before it, provides a standard Earth

sea level atmosphere — 14.7 pounds per square inch (psi) and 21%

oxygen. As a result, preparation for an ISS EVA requires 4 hours of

breathing pure oxygen, followed by 17 hours of 30% oxygen at 10.2 psi,

followed by another hour of pure oxygen, before donning the EMU

(“Extravehicular Maneuvering Unit” spacesuit) with 100% oxygen at 4.3

psi.

However, this long delay will not be acceptable at a base on Mars.

When something “outside” in the extended base complex goes “thump” in

the night, astronauts’ lives may well depend on them being able to go out

to check on it immediately. A habitat atmosphere of 40% oxygen at 6.0

psi, together with a suit atmosphere of pure oxygen at 3.0 psi would

reduce the risk of decompression sickness to an acceptable level [20].

The mainstream of NASA’s thinking, however, seems to run along

very different lines. Apart from Skylab in the 1970s, NASA has used 30%

as the acceptable upper limit for oxygen, except in suits and pre-breathing.

It is not clear, however, that 30% has been adopted as a formal limit. Nor

is the documentation for NASA’s decision-making compelling or

complete. It appears that NASA decision-makers have asswned away the

low-pressure approach. In some cases, charts have been truncated so that

neither a 3.0 psi suit nor a 6.0 psi habitat even appear [30].

Moreover, the NASA approach to dealing with DCS has been to

work to develop higher pressure suits, and this is what NASA means when

the phrase “advanced suif’ is used. Meanwhile, work on a radically

different alternative approach — a low-pressure mechanical counter-

pressure (MCP) suit — has been pursued at a low level for decades

[31] [32]. (Think “wetsuit and scuba” as opposed to “hardhat diver.”)

The bottom line is the following: Since an emergency on Mars

may require an immediate EVA, the Mars habitat’s atmosphere and, by

extension, the atmosphere in the transit “deep space” habitat should be low

pressure and oxygen-rich. NASA should: (1) explore the full range of

options and (2) develop an extensive experience base for the adopted

atmospheric parameters, both on Earth and in near-Earth space. This

should be done as soon as possible since many design decisions depend on

it. Unfortunately, the default for the Orion Multi-purpose Crew Vehicle is

a standard sea level Earth atmosphere.

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Martian Entry y Descent, and Landing for High Mass Payloads

The “skycrane” that successfully brought the 1 tonne MSL

Curiosity to the Martian surface in Gale Crater in August 2012 represented

a major advance over the airbags used by Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit

and Opportunity. NASA is planning to use the skycrane again for another

rover in 2020. However this approach cannot handle Entry/Descent/

Landing for a manned mission that will almost certainly exceed 10 tonnes.

NASA should also immediately start the development of one or more new

Mars EDL schemes to handle payloads in the range of 10 to 40 tonnes.

Understanding whether it is most cost effective to land 40 tonnes in one

piece, in two 20-tonne pieces, or in four 10-tonne pieces, is necessary to

inform the design of the entire Mars mission system, from launch vehicles

to human landers to surface habitats.

Appendix B: Alternatives and Distractions

The introduction to this paper posited that “the planet Mars is far

and away the single best choice for an initial extended human presence

beyond low Earth orbit.” If we accept that, and if humans are ever going to

travel anyM^here in space, then they are going to go to Mars. So the actual

question is not if but when we will send humans to Mars.

Why Not Just Continue To Use Robots Instead of Humans?

Thinking in the short term, however, human and robotic

exploration of space are often framed as mutually exclusive alternatives.

Why should we spend a lot of money to send humans to Mars when

robotic missions from the Viking landers of the 1970s to the Opportunity

and Curiosity rovers active in 2013 have made so many important

discoveries at a tiny fraction of the cost?

The principal reason is simple physics. The 6-44 minute round trip

light-speed latency of communications between Earth and Mars precludes

robotic teleoperation. Consequently, today we operate our Mars rovers

with a single command cycle per sol: We send a command sequence to the

rover and wait until the next sol to receive the results of the command

execution, then repeat the process. While the software evolves over time

so that we incrementally increase the payoff from each soTs work, it is

still painfully slow, as is clear to anyone following the daily adventures of

Curiosity.

So the conclusion is this: The robots we have deployed, and the

robots we are going to be able to deploy in the next few decades, are

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simply not able to do what humans can do, and it takes so long for them to

do what they can do, that sending humans to Mars muU become

competitive if we believe that Mars is indeed worthy of serious

exploration.

In fact, the time when we finally send humans to Mars, presumably

a few decades from now, will not mark the end of the involvement of

unmanned systems in the exploration of Mars. Instead, robots and other

unmanned systems will continue to play many critical roles on Mars, and

the presence of humans will strongly affect the characteristics of the

robotic systems we build. In advance of the first human landings, the

descendants of today’s rovers will: survey candidate landing sites; identify

and locate ice and mineral resources; establish power, communications,

and navigation infrastructure; and construct underground habitats. Many

of these systems will require much more strength and power than

exploration rovers.

Once humans have landed, mobile robots will continue to explore

and preview sites for human exploration, identifying targets of interest and

possible hazards. They will also perform ongoing construction tasks and

transport equipment, supplies, and people. The arrival of humans on Mars

will permit proactive maintenance and repair, and allow teleoperation and

operator intervention, supporting multiple dynamic levels of autonomy.

Therefore, the critical challenges to the use of unmamied systems will

occur before humans arrive on Mars. Nevertheless, installed

communications and navigation infrastructure should be able to support

structured and/or repetitive operations (such as excavation, drilling, or

construction) within a “familiar” operating area with an acceptable level of

remote operator intervention [27] [28].

The single most limited resource on Mars will be human attention.

Each person we send to Mars will require a huge investment in mass to be

transported, and therefore in cost. It will be highly cost effective to create

systems and procedures to leverage the attentional energy of each human

on Mars — to do the most with the fewest people — and this can only be

done by using “smart systems,” including robots. The question is not

“robots instead of \\um2im on Mars”; instead, the answer is “robots before

humans and robots M’ith humans on Mars.”

Why Not Go Back to the Moon?

Some have suggested that a return to the Moon is a logical step on

the path of sending humans to Mars. Let’s examine and dismiss some of

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the arguments in turn;

Use the Moon as a refueling stop? The lunar gravity well is deep

enough that retrieving fuel from a depot on the surface of the Moon is

energetically more expensive than bringing fuel from Earth, even if it were

free.

Use lunar in-situ resource utilization to prepare for Martian

ISRU? The resources available on the surface of the Moon are totally

different from those we plan to exploit on Mars, especially carbon dioxide

extracted from the atmosphere and water from subsurface ice, brines, or

hydrates.

Use a long-term outpost on the Moon to prepare for Mars?

Lunar gravity is a greater challenge than Mars gravity. Lunar day (an

Earth month) is a greater challenge than Mars day, which is nearly the

same as Earth’s. Lunar dust is “sharp,” and offers a greater challenge than

Mars dust, which has been rounded off by wind action. Heck, Mars is a

great place to prepare for putting an outpost on the Moon!

Use Lunar Entry/Descent/Landing to prepare for Mars EDL?

Parachutes work on Earth, while a retrorocket scheme is both necessary

and sufficient on the Moon. The Mars atmosphere is thin enough that

delivering large (say, 10+ tonne) payloads to the surface requires more

than parachutes, but at the same time it is thick enough to interact with

retrorocket exhaust at high velocities. The Moon can’t teach us anything

here.

The bottom line on this issue is that a decision to send humans

back to the Moon would — by diverting financial, personnel, and

attentional resources — effectively delay the human exploration of Mars

by years, if not decades. Louis Friedmann, former Executive Director of

the Planetary Society, put it well: “We should go to the Moon, and we

did!”

Why Not Go to a Near Earth Object?

Sending humans to an appropriate Near Earth Object as part of the

“Flexible Path” strategy would provide a good demonstration/rehearsal for

the transit stage “deep space habitat” (DSH) that will carry humans to

Mars. The criteria for selecting a target NEO include:

1) The energy (“delta- v”) required to send people to the NEO and

back must actually be affordable;

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2) The total time required for the transit to and from the NEO should

be comparable to a transit to or from Mars (6-12 months); and

3) The NEO must be large enough so that we can rendezvous and

land on it (many NEOs with a diameter less than about 50-70

meters are rotating too fast to actually rendezvous with and “land

on.”)

It turns out that the number of actual NEOs that satisfy all these criteria is

very small.

But this point is now moot, since NASA has recently adopted an

alternate strategy, the Asteroid Retrieval and Recovery Mission (ARRM).

Since the deep space habitat will not be ready by the early 2020s, instead

of sending astronauts to an asteroid, NASA proposes to use an unmanned

spacecraft to capture a small (roughly 8 -meter diameter) asteroid intact

and bring it back to a stable distant retrograde orbit in the Earth-Moon

system. This is close enough so that astronauts can visit and sample it

using the Orion MPCV. While the retrieval mission would test out

advanced solar electric propulsion, this expensive pair of missions will, of

course, divert resources from preparing for an actual human mission to

Mars. The retrieval component of ARRM should be canceled and the

recovery effort redirected toward the tiny “mini-moons” (softball to

dishwasher sized) that frequently enter the Earth-Moon system and remain

for periods of up to a few years [33].

The fact that two private companies have recently been founded

with the goal of actually mining asteroids — Planetary Resources

Corporation (PRC) and Deep Space Industries (DSI) — makes the

expenditure of scarce public funds for the NASA ARRM effort even less

sensible.

Don V We Need (fill in the blank) Before

We Can Send Humans to Mars?

A number of “exotic” propulsion schemes — alternatives to

chemical rockets — have been or are being developed, and these are

sometimes held out as being necessary before we can send humans to

Mars [34]. For example:

• A Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) propulsion system could

support a faster human transit to Mars and reduce the cost of cargo

transfer. An NTR system was fully developed in the 1960s, but the

politics involved in using a nuclear approach would be fierce.

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• Ion propulsion is capable of providing continuous (but very low)

thrust at very high specific impulse (a measure of “bounce to the

ounce”). Such a low thrust modality might well provide a very cost

effective transportation scheme to bring cargo to Mars with 20-30

months transit time, since much less fuel mass would have to be

launched to Low Earth Orbit in order to deliver a given payload

mass to the surface of Mars, as compared to chemical rockets.

But we don’t need either of these schemes (or more futuristic schemes

such as fusion rocket propulsion or a “space elevator”) to send the first

humans to Mars. Chemical rockets, on a scale not much greater than

Satum/Apollo, will do the job.

References

[1] Crossley, R., Imagining Mars: A Literaiy History, Wesleyan University Press,

Middletown, CT, (2011).

[2] Mahaffy, P. R., et al, “Abundance and Isotopic Composition of Gases in the

Martian Atmosphere from the Curiosity Rover,” Science 19 July 2013: Vol. 341

No. 6143, pp. 263-266.

[3] Individual reference citations have not been included here for each individual

mission or for every scientific term for which Wikipedia provides good

introductory information and/or the obvious web search will lead to the mission

website.

[4] Von Braun, W., The Mars Project (Das Mars Projekt), University of Illinois Press,

Urbana, (1962).

[5] http://historv.nasa.gov/sei.htm

[6] Zubrin, R., The Case for Mars, Simon & Schuster, New York, (1996).

[7] Rapp, D., and J. Andringa, “Design Reference Missions for Human Exploration of

Mars,” JPL Report D-31340, (2005), also presented at ISDC, Arlington, VA, May,

(2005).

[8] http://www.marssocietv.org

[9] Director Scott Gill’s documentary video. The Mars Underground, available on

Amazon.com, provides an infonpative and entertaining overview of this

subculture.

[10] NASA, The Vision for Space Exploration, February 2004, available online at

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/55583main_vision_space exploration2.pdf

[11] Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee, “Seeking a Human

Spaceflight Program Worthy of a Great Nation,” available at

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/617036main 396093main HSF Cmte FinalReport.pdf

(2010).

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[12] NASA. (2009). Human Exploration of Mars Design Reference Architecture 5.0.

Online at http://www.nasa.gov/pdE373665iTiain NASA-SP-2009-566.pdf

[13] Gage, D. W., “Prepare Now for the Long Stay on Mars,” Twelfth International

Mars Society Convention, College Park, MD, 30 July - 2 August, (2009).

[14] Rapp, D., “Radiation effects and shielding requirements in human missions to the

Moon and Mars,” Mars 2, 46-71 (2006), available online at

http://marsioumal.Org/contents/2006/0004/files/rapp mars 2006 0004.pdf.

[15] http://www.mars-one.com/

[16] Kanas, N. “Expedition to Mars: Psychological, Interpersonal and Psychiatric

Issues,” Journal of Cosmology, Vol. 12, pp. 3741-3747, (2010).

[17] Kanas, N. and J. Ritsher, “Psychosocial issues during a Mars mission,” AIAA 1st

Space Exploration Conference, Orlando, FL, January 30-February 1, 2005.

[18] Kanas, N. and D. Manzey, Space Psychology’ and Psychiatiy, 2d Edition,

Microcosm Press, El Segundo, CA, (2008).

[19] Keyak, J. H., A. K. Koyama, A. LeBlanc, Y. Lu, T. F. Lang, “Reduction in

proximal femoral strength due to long-duration spaceflight.” Bone, Vol. 44, Issue

3, pp. 449-453, (2009).

[20] Gage, D. W., “Begin High Fidelity Mars Simulations Now,” Ninth International

Mars Society Convention, Washington, D.C., 3-6 August, (2006).

[21] NASA. The Mars Surface Reference Mission: A Description of Human and

Robotic Surface Activities, NASA TP-200 1-209371, NASA Johnson Space

Center, Houston, TX, (2001).

[22] Landis, G. A., Mars Crossing, Tom Doherty Associates, New York, (2000).

[23] Varley, J., “In the Hall of the Mountain Kings,” in the anthology Fourth Planet

from the Sun, Thunder’s Mouth Press, New York, (2005).

[24] Zubrin, R., First Landing, Ace Books, New York, (2001 ).

[25] Zubrin, R., Mars on Earth, Tarcher/Penguin, New York, (2003).

[26] Gage, D. W., “Mars Base First: A Program-level Optimization for Human Mars

Exploration,” Journal of Cosmology, Vol. 12, pp. 3904-391 1, (2010).

[27] Gage, D. W. “Unmanned systems to support the human exploration of Mars,”

Proc. SPIE, Vol. 7692, 7692M, (2010).

[28] Gage, D. W., “Robots on Mars: From Exploration to Base Operations,” Journal of

Cosmology’, Vol. 1 2, pp. 405 1 -4057, (20 1 0).

[29] Roach, M., Packing for Mars: The Curious Science of Life in the Void, W. W.

Norton, New York, (2010).

[30] NASA, “Man-Systems Integration Standards,” NASA-STD-3000. Available

online at httD://msis.isc. nasa.gov/ ( 1 995).

[31] Webb, P. “The Space Activity Suit: an Elastic Leotard for Extravehicular

Activity,” Aerospace Medicine, pp 376-383, April 1968.

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[32] Newman, D. and M. Barratt. Fundamentals of Space Life Sciences, Chapter 22,

“Life Support and Performance Issues for Extravehicular Activity,” pp. 337-364,

Fundamentals of Space Life Sciences, S. Churchill, ed., Krieger Publishing Co.,

Malabar, FL, 337-364, January 1997.

[33] Granvik, M., R. Jedicke, B. Bolin, M. Chyba, G. Patterson, G. Picot, (2013),

“Earth’s Temporarily-Captured Natural Satellites — The First Step Toward

Utilization of Asteroid Resources,” in Asteroids: Prospective Energ}> and Material

Resources, Edited by Viorel Badescu. Springer-Verlag, pp. 151-167.

[34] Wall, M. “Incredible Technology: How to Launch Superfast Trips to Mars,”

Space.com, Online at http://www.space.com/23445-mars-missions-superfast-

propulsion-incredible-technologv.html, Nov. 4, 2013.

Bio

Douglas Gage is an independent technology consultant based in

Arlington, Virginia. After working in robotics and communications for

many years at the Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center (SPAWAR

Systems Center) San Diego, he served from 2000 to 2004 as a Program

Manager at the Defense Advanced Projects Agency (DARPA), where he

managed programs in robotic software. He has since consulted for NASA

and DARPA, and has presented Mars-focused papers at the International

Space Development Conference (ISDC) and Mars Society conferences.

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A Brief History of Government Policies

to Promote Commercial Space'

Bhavya Lai

Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington, D.C.

Abstract

This paper discusses the history of private and government support of

private sector activities in the United States. Through a review of

government legislations over the last many decades, it demonstrates

that, despite perceptions, space activities for commercial purposes are

not new, and private sector firms engaged in commercial activity have

had public, private and government support for decades. A review of

the history goes beyond a simple itemization of government activity.

As several U.S. government agencies gear up to support increasing

numbers of private firms in the space sector, there are many lessons

that can be drawn from prior attempts. The lessons from these activities

should be incorporated in future policy design and planning.

Introduction

There has been a major effort in the United States to bring the

private sector into the primarily government-controlled space sector, and,

in recent years, there have been many high-profile non-governmental

developments in space. In 2012, Space Exploration Technologies

(SpaceX) — delivered cargo to the International Space Station (ISS) under

a fixed-price contract with the National Aeronautics and Space

Administration (NASA). It is expected that SpaceX and other firms will

take crew to the ISS by 2015. Other private and publicly held fimis have

similarly ambitious plans; though not all might be realistic or feasible.

Recently formed firms Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries

intend to survey and mine asteroids. California-based firm Moon Express,

among other firms, has announced its intention to win the Google X Prize

(a $3 0-million prize to the first privately funded teams to land a robot on

the surface of the Moon safely) and to use robots to start mining the

Moon. Texas-based Shackleton Energy Company plans to mine ice in the

Shackleton Crater at the lunar South Pole to provide propellant for

planetary missions. Other companies have made forays into earth

observation and remote sense. The start-up firm Planet Labs is expected to

revolutionize Earth observation by providing low-cost high-resolution

imagery quickly and inexpensively. Similar to Planet Labs, Skybox

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focuses on imaging, and is combining web technology with a constellation

of microsatellites to deliver insight into daily global activity.

Despite perceptions that commercial space has recently arisen, it

has been long in the making. Commercialization of space was anticipated

by space enthusiasts long before government arrived, and its seeming

recent emergence may well be a “re-emergence.” This paper discusses the

history of commercial space activities in the United States, with the

argument that there may be many lessons, especially related to

government policy, from past successes and failures, that are worth

incorporating as government agencies such as NASA, the Federal

Aviation Administration (FAA), Defense Advanced Research Projects

Agency (DARPA) and others ponder ways to support the “nascent”

private space sector.

As the sections below show, the history of commercial space can

be segmented into three major eras — early beginnings, referring to

activities well before the start of the modem space age; fast forwarding to

the 1980s which saw the first government effort to bring private sector

into the largely government-run space enterprise of the Apollo era; and

activities in the 2000s and beyond.

Early Beginnings

Private funders played a dominant role in funding early American

“space-oriented” projects. These individuals had largely scientific

aspirations and not commercial ones in mind, and their efforts were

primarily concentrated in ground-based astronomical observatories. As

Table 1 shows, most early large observatories in the United States were

privately funded. The primary source of funds was wealthy individuals

who were either indulging a personal interest in astronomy or who were

interested in leaving to the world a personal legacy and monument.

Examples of this type of patronage are the observatories built by Andrew

Carnegie, James Lick, Leander McCormick, Charles Yerkes, and John

Rockefeller’s General Education Board.

The funding was also economically significant. Table 1 provides

the 2008 gross domestic product (GDP) ratio equivalent values for a

number of American observatories and space exploration projects in the

nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. As the table illustrates, projects

ranged in cost from around $50 million to upwards of $1 billion. Indeed,

according to some experts, the recent emergence of commercial space

activities is, in fact, a re-emergence:

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For the majority of its history, space exploration in

America has been funded privately. The trend of wealthy

individuals ... devoting some of their resources to the

exploration of space is not an emerging one, it is the long-

run, dominant trend which is now reemerging (MacDonald,

2010).

Table 1. Early Astronomy Projects

Source: MacDonald 2008

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Arguably, these science-oriented efforts and the inaccessibility of

space encouraged a communal belief that space was the province of

science. In the early development of American liquid-fuel rocketry,

pioneers such as Robert Goddard undertook their research and

development (R&D) largely using private funds and, in some cases (as

with Goddard), private philanthropy (Pendray, 1964). Goddard was also

funded by the Smithsonian Institution. Although the U.S. Government

funded some battlefield rocket research during World War I, during the

interwar years, only Germany and the Soviet Union aggressively

supported rocket research with government money (Raushenbakh and

Biryukov, 1968; Neufeld, 1996).

While rocketry programs were beginning to attract military

funding during the World War II (with the U.S. Government making a

massive effort to acquire the German rocket scientists after the fall of

Germany), the growth of public sector support for rocketry and spaceflight

began to outweigh that of private companies and individuals with the

beginning of the Cold War and later the launch of Sputnik.

Even as the U.S. government centralized leadership in space-

related research, development, test, evaluation, and exploration during the

U.S. -USSR Space Race, private companies were extensively involved and

increasingly interested in the evolutionary development of space

technology and space capabilities. Some private companies were even

interested in their own space ventures, particularly in the realm of

commercial satellites. AT&T Bell served as a pioneer in this field. Not

only did it co-sponsor the NASA Echo project, but it also invested $170

million of its money into its own successful satellite program,"^ Telstar, the

cost of which included paying for launch services from NASA (Chaddha,

2009). Hughes Space and Telecommunications, whose Syncom satellite of

1 963 pioneered geosynchronous communication satellite design,

effectively “forced” itself upon NASA to secure a sole-source contract for

the then-controversial GEO satellite. Despite AT&T and RCA’s

background and early success, the Hughes GEO design went on to

dominate the communications satellite field.

A growing concern over a potential telecommunications monopoly

from space led to the 1962 Communications Satellite Act. The act

provided for the formation of Communications Satellite Corporation

(COMSAT), a public-private entity that was given a monopoly over

satellite communications subject to federal oversight and regulation.

Likewise, growing international demand for satellite telecommunications

Washington Academy of Sciences

29

Legal and Policy Guidance

on Commercial Space:

1980s-1990s

The Commercial Space Launch

Act of 1984 states the need to

promote economic growth and

entrepreneurial activity through the

use of the space environment for

peaceful purposes. ”

1984 Land Remote Sensing

Commercialization Act

The 1985 Amendments to the

National Aeronautics and Space

Act (P.L. 85568) directs that

NASA "shall ... seek and

encourage, to the maximum extent

possible, the fullest commercial use

of space. ”

1988 Land Remote Sensing

Commercialization Act

Launch Services Purchase Act of

1990 required NASA "to purchase

launch services for its primaiy

payloads from commercial provider

whenever such services are requirei

in the course of its activities. ”

L.S. Commercial Space

Guidelines 1991 (NSPD-3)

provided guidelines to "promote

the policy of driving down market

costs for private space through

government investment. "

1992 Land Remote Sensing

Commercialization Act

The Commercial Space Act of

1998 (P.L. 105303) states that "to

the maximum extent practicable, the

federal government shall plan

missions to accommodate the space

transportation services capabilities

of United States commercial

providers: a priority goal of

constructing the International Spaa

Station is the economic developmen

of Earth orbital space; and

competitive markets . . . should

therefore govern the economic

development of Earth orbital

space. ”

led to the creation of the International

Telecommunications Satellite Organization

— better known as Intelsat — in 1964, an

organization that effectively allowed each

country to monopolize control of their

international satellite communications.

Satellite communications control would

only be fully returned to the private sector

from these monopolies by the turn of the

century.^

The 1980s and 1990s

The 1980s saw a convergence of

factors that encouraged the rebirth of

private sector involvement in space. First, a

wave of private sector companies began to

challenge the government’s hold on space

technologies. In 1984, PanAmSat was

organized and became the first private

satellite company to challenge the

intergovernmental satellite monopoly

Intelsat. Even more significantly, the

French public launch service company

Arianespace SA, founded in 1980, began to

provide a new challenge to NASA’s

launches and to American preeminence in

the exploitation of space technology itself

(Fuller, et al. 2011).

The rise of a new commercially

oriented (albeit state-owned) launch

company in Europe would soon prove a

stronger competitor to the American

aerospace industry. Arianespace quickly

became the global leader in commercial

launch, surpassing the United States in

1986, and never looking back with the

exception of 2004. Ironically, it was the

U.S. government that helped to create

Arianespace, in part, when NASA refused

to launch a French-German commercial

Fall 2013

30

satellite called Symphonic. This competition, however, complemented the

Reagan administration’s goals of deregulation and commercialization,

and, in 1984, Congress passed the Commercial Space Launch Act. The

goal of the act was “to promote economic growth and entrepreneurial

activity through use of the space environment . . . [and] to encourage the

United States private sector provide launch vehicles, reentry vehicles, and

associated services” (Stone, 2012).

As part of the Administration space policy, this act was viewed as

a key step toward their goals of the eventual commercialization of space.

As President Reagan stated during the signing ceremony:

One of the important objectives of my administration has

been, and will continue to be, the encouragement of the

private sector in commercial space endeavors.

Fragmentation and shared authority had unnecessarily

complicated the process of approving activities in space.

Enactment of this legislation is a milestone in our efforts to

address the need of private companies interested in

launching payloads to have ready access to space. ^

The act allowed private companies to launch their own vehicles

provided that they obtain a license from the U.S. Department of

Transportation (DOT), which set up the AST (or Office of Commercial

Space Transportation) with the responsibility to regulate the U.S.

commercial space launch, encourage and promote commercial space

launches, recommend policy changes, and facilitate the expansion of space

transport infrastructure. The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) also

set up an additional office, the Office of Space Commercialization (OSC),

for the support of commercial space companies.

It was during this time that NASA changed its approach to private

space. Before the Shuttle first flew, NASA had initiated a so-called

“Getaway Special” program that encouraged researchers in the science

and technology community to develop small payloads and experiments

that could be carried into orbit on a non-interference basis with the larger

and more sophisticated payloads anticipated for Shuttle launch. While this

program did not dramatically transform private space, it nevertheless

spoke to the agency’s growing recognition that the nature of space

operations was rapidly changing away from an exclusively government-

supported model.

Washington Academy of Sciences

31

In 1985, Congress amended the original NASA Act during its

reauthorization, adding subsection (c) that required the agency to “seek

and encourage, to the maximum extent possible, the fullest commercial

use of space” (NASA, 2008). NASA support of the commercial use of

space was strengthened by the addition of requirements that NASA

“encourage and provide for federal government use of commercially

provided space services and hardware, consistent with the requirements of

the federal government.”^

The full effect of this mission change would not be known,

however, since it was followed closely by the 1986 Challenger disaster.

The disaster, which was followed by a nearly 3 -year suspension of space

shuttle flights for reevaluation and testing, may have helped to accelerate

the involvement of the private sector. Earlier, U.S. Government policy had

supported the space shuttle as the sole method for space transport, and,

accordingly, the private space industry had felt crowded out of launch

service. However, the suspension of flights left the United States without

serious launch capacity, leading NASA acting administrator William

Graham to announce his support for developing a commercial launch

industry and diversity in launch technology (Reynolds and Merges, 1998,

p. 16). This change in policy from NASA, accompanied by new

competition from Europe and the 1984 Commercial Space Launch Act,

served to stimulate the development of a domestic commercial launch

industry (Fuller, et al., 2011), particularly for communication satellites.

By 1990, American manufacturing of communication satellites and

satellite ground terminals totaled approximately $6 billion annually

(McLucas, 1991). Thus, from the policy shifts in the 1980s, came the

opportunity for private expansion in the 1990s. Aside from the

communications satellite industry, the launch sector grew most

prominently, and two major forms of companies began to emerge: larger

firms whose goal was to commercialize older and larger rocket teclmology

and smaller start-ups attempting to develop new designs (Reynolds and

Merges, 1988, p. 13). In addition to the growing opportunities for

telecommunications services, most of these services were intended to be

provided to and purchased by the government.

In 1990, then President George H. W. Bush signed into law the

Q

Launch Services Purchase Act. The Act, m a complete reversal of the

earlier Space Shuttle monopoly, ordered NASA to purchase launch

services for its primary payloads from commercial providers whenever

such services are required for its activities. This decision was also made in

Fall 2013

32

Key Legal and Policy

Guidance on Commercial

Space in the 2000s

The Commercial Space

Transportation

Competitiveness Act of 2000

(P.L. 106405) finds that "a

robust United States space

transportation industry is vital

to the Nation ’s economic well-

being and national security. ”

U.S. Commercial Remote

Sensing Policy (2003) directed

the U.S. Government to “rely

on commercial remote sensing

space capabilities to the

mcLximum practical extent. ”

The White House Space

Policy (2004) states “to exploit

space to the fullest extent ...

requires a fundamental

transformation in U.S. space

transportation capabilities” and

that “the United States

Government must capitalize on

the entrepreneurial spirit of the

U.S. private sector. ”

The NASA Authorization Act

of 2005 (P.L. 109155) states

that “in carrying out the

programs of the Administration,

the Administrator shall ... work

closely with the private sector,

including by ... encouraging the

work of entrepreneurs who are

seeking to develop new means

to send satellites, crew, or

cargo to outer space. ”

The White House Space

Transportation Policy (2006)

states that U.S. government

departments and agencies

shall “use U.S. commercial

space capabilities and services

to the maximum practical

extent; purchase commercial

capabilities and sen'ices when

they are available in the

commercial marketplace and

meet United States Government

requirements ..."

the December 1986 Presidential decision

directive “United States Space Launch

Strategy” (Logsdon, et al. 1999).

Acknowledging the new growth of

the private sector, the government continued

to expand on its policy decisions in the

decade before, issuing the U.S. Commercial

Space Guidelines in 1991 to promote the

policy of driving down market costs for

private space through government

investment (Chaddha, 2009). This initiative

was made more far-reaching still with the

1998 Commercial Space Act, which

removed the restriction on NASA’s ability to

purchase services from private companies.

Previously, NASA could purchase hardware

from contractors but not things like

wholesale launch services (Chaddha, 2009).

This decision opened significant new

markets for private launch companies. In

addition, the act also promoted the future

commercialization of the space launch, the

demonstration of launch voucher programs,

and the potential administration of

commercial spaceports (Stone 2012). Also

encouraging this decision was a more

general interest in private space access —

even space tourism — using small

indigenously developed space access

systems.

By 1995, the Office of Commercial

Space Transportation, first set up in the

DOT, was transferred to the FAA as AST,

adding the authority to regulate reentry in

1998 (FAA, 2011). The year 1998 also saw

release of the Commercial Development

Plan for the ISS.^ In 1996, the FAA issued

the first commercial spaceport operators

license to Spaceport Systems International in

California (by 2012, the number would grow

Washington Academy of Sciences

33

to eight FAA-licensed spaceports).

The 2000s

The start of the millennium accelerated commercial space activity.

In 2000, Congress passed the Commercial Space Transportation

Competitiveness Act, authorizing further appropriations to both AST and

the OSC (which had been around since 1998). The act also authorized a

study on a “liability risk-sharing regime” for commercial space transport

in the U.S.’^ In 2005, the DOC transferred its Space Commercialization

office to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration

(NOAA).”

In the private sector in 2004, Scaled Composites became the first

company to receive a Reusable Launch Vehicle license from AST.

Motivated by the reward of the $ 10-million Ansari X Prize, Scaled also

became the first private company to organize a commercial human launch

that same year (FAA, 2010).

Also in 2004, the White House issued its Vision for Space

Exploration, which included the goal of promoting international and

commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific, security,

and economic interests. After taking office in the spring of 2005, NASA

Administrator Mike Griffin stated his view and his direction to begin an

official program office for commercial cargo and crew (Stone, 2012);

I believe that with the advent of the ISS, there will exist for

the first time a strong, identifiable market for “routine”

transportation service to and from LEO [low Earth orbit],

and that this will be only the first step in what will be a

huge opportunity for truly commercial space enterprise,

inherent to the Vision for Space Exploration. I believe that

the ISS provides a tremendous opportunity to promote

commercial space ventures that will help us meet our

exploration objectives and at the same time create new jobs

and new industry.

The clearly identifiable market provided by the ISS is that

for regular cargo delivery and return, and crew rotation

especially after we retire the shuttle in 2010, but earlier

should the capability become available. We want to be able

to buy these services from American industry to the fullest

extent possible. We believe that when we engage the

engine of competition, these services will be provided in a

Fall 2013

34

more cost-effective fashion than when the government has

to do it. To that end, we have established a commercial

crew/cargo project office, and assigned to it the task of

stimulating commercial enterprise in space by asking

American entrepreneurs to provide innovative, cost

effective commercial cargo and crew transportation

services to the space station.

NASA does not have a preferred solution. Our

requirements will be couched, to the maximum extent

possible, in terms of performance objectives, not process.

Process requirements which remain will reflect matters of

fundamental safety of life and property, or other basic

matters. It will not be government “business as usual.” If

those of you in industry find it to be otherwise, I expect to

hear from you on the matter.

This and other statements by NASA leadership at the time, with

the support of Congress and the National Space Policy, created their

Human Space Flight Transition Plan in 2006. By 2006, NASA had also

initiated the Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) program, a public-private

12

partnership to foster private space access to the ISS. The year 2006 was

1 ^

also when NASA started using its other transaction authority privilege

specifically to stimulate development of private sector capabilities.

Referred to as a “funded Space Act Agreement (SAA),” it involved the

transfer of appropriated funds to a domestic partner, such as a private

company or a university, to accomplish an agency mission. These SAAs,

which have continued to be used through today, differed from Federal

Acquisition Regulation (FAR) contracts in that they did not include

requirements that generally apply to government contracts entered into

under the authority of the FAR. For example, under these agreements,

partners are not required to comply with government contract quality

assurance requirements (U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2011).

Further executive support for the commercial sector came from the

2006 U.S. National Space Policy. Again, NASA administrator Michael

Griffin was a strong supporter.

Td like for us to get to the point where we have the kind of

private/public synergy in space flight that we have had for a

hundred years in aviation ... I see a day in the not-very-

distant future where instead of NASA buying a vehicle, we

buy a ticket for our astronauts to ride to low Earth orbit, or

Washington Academy of Sciences

35

Recent Legal and Policy

Guidance on

Commercial Space

First Use of Funded Space Act

Agreements (2006) jump-

started the NASA COTS

program.

The NASA Authorization Act

of 2008 (P.L. 110422) states

that "in order to stimulate

commercial use of space, help

maximize the utility and

productivity of the International

Space Station, and enable a

commercial means of providing

crew transfer and crew rescue

services for the International

Space Station, NASA shall make

use of United States

commercially provided

International Space Station

crew transfer and crew rescue

services to the maximum extent

practicable. ”

The National Space Policy of

2010 (PPD 4) states that U.S.

government departments and

agencies shall "purchase and

use commercial space

capabilities ... to the maximum

practical extent; actively

explore the use of ...

arrangements for acquiring

commercial space goods;

refrain from conducting United

States Government space

activities that preclude,

discourage, or compete with

U.S. commercial space

activities, unless required by

national security; actively

promote the export of US

commercially developed ...

space goods and services. ”

The NASA Authorization Act

of 2010 states that NASA '

shall continue to support ...

enabling the commercial space

industry ... to develop reliable

means of launching cargo and

supplies to the ISS. ”

a bill of lading for a cargo delivery to

space station by a private operator. I

want us to get to that point. (Milstein,

2009)

The 2010 National Space Policy

(Office of Scienee and Technology Policy

2006; White House Office of the Press

Secretary 2010; National Space Policy 2010)

expanded government support for

commercial activity, especially in the launeh

seetor but also opened the door for many

other experiments in commercial space.

Today

In 2012, the first privately held firm

— SpaceX (Space Exploration

Technologies) — delivered cargo to the ISS

under a fixed-price contract with NASA. It is

expected that SpaeeX and other firms will be

able to take crew to the ISS by 2015.

The government aetively supports

eommereial efforts (with launch being one of

the better known areas). NASA’s Innovative

Lunar Demonstrations Data (ILDD) program

is ehallenging industry to demonstrate Earth-

to-lunar surface flight system eapabilities

and test technologies, and DARPA’s

Phoenix program intends to develop and

demonstrate teclmologies to harvest and

reuse valuable components from retired,

non-working satellites and demonstrate the

ability to ereate new spaee systems at greatly

reduced cost.

Outside of the government, several

private and publicly held firms have

ambitious plans. There is no formal count of

the number of “eommereial” activities, and

new ventures are announced almost daily. In

January 2013, for example, the Golden Spike

Fall 2013

36

Company announced that it has plans to fly manned crews to the moon

and back by 2020.'^ More recently, Deep Space Industries announced its

intent to begin prospecting for asteroids suitable for mining by 2015 and

by 2016 return asteroid samples to Earth.

The private space sector today is large. In some applications, such

as direct-to-home TV, the space sector is thriving. Three quarters of the

world’s space related economic activity is commercial (see Figure 1), and

space-related firms track the stock market and have outperformed the

Standard & Poors (S&P) index in recent years (see Figure 2 where the

Space Foundation Index is the middle line in the right-hand bar showing

2012).

Figure 1. Global Space Activity in 201 1 (in billions of dollars)

Total: $289.77 Billion

Non-U.S.

Government

Commercial

Space

Transport.

Services

(<1%), $0.01

- ^ - n F w

Source: The Space Foundation 2012b

Summary

By tracing the history of government policies, this paper

demonstrates that while the space community is abuzz over recent

developments and the growing potential of the commercial space sector,

the reality is that the history of the role of non-governmental entities in

space can trace its origins to a time well before the beginning of the space

age.

Washington Academy of Sciences

37

Figure 2. Financial Performance of Publicly Held Space-Related Companies,

Mid-2005 to 2012

Source: The Space Foundation 2012a

It also shows that, while many of the developments in commercial

space appear to be recent (and certainly some of the successes in the

launch sector are), the wheels of non-governmental activities in space

were set into motion in the 1 980s. What we see today is a culmination of

almost 30 years of Legislative and Executive support for commercial

activity. Its recent emergence may well be a “re-emergence.”

*This paper uses the National Space Policy definition of the term “commercial” space:

“The term “commercial,” for the purposes of this policy, refers to space goods, services,

or activities provided by private sector enterprises that bear a reasonable portion of the

investment risk and responsibility for the activity, operate in accordance with typical

market-based incentives for controlling cost and optimizing return on investment, and

have the legal capacity to offer these goods or services to existing or potential non-

governmental customers” (National Space Policy 2010). An analysis of the definition is

conducted elsewhere (Science and Technology Policy Institute, 2013).

"However, perceptions of the private commercialization of space were increasingly

reflected in the science fiction literature. Even the earliest space best seller, Jules Verne’s

1865 From the Earth to the Moon, clearly described space as a domain of the American

military industrialists. Later, Robert Heinlein’s 1966 novel. The Moon is a Harsh

Mistress, presented contrasting views of Lunar society and exploitation, and Kubrick’s

1969 work, 2001: A Space Odyssey, had a prominent Pan American logo on the

spacecraft.

^See, for example, A Method of Researching Extreme Altitudes,

http://www.clarku.edu/research/archives/pdf/ext altitudes.pdf.

Fall 2013

38

‘’However, AT«feT’s initial success did not guarantee its market dominance, as was

quickly evidenced by its loss of a major early satellite contract, the Relay program, to

rival RCA. To win the contract, RCA leveraged its previous experience building a variety

of military satellite systems (particularly the Television Infrared Observation Satellite

[TIROS] weather satellites) as well as fears about AT&T’s potential telecommunications

monopoly.

^The exact relationship between COMSAT, Intelsat, and the private and public sectors for

communication satellites was nuanced and changed over time. Appendix A to this report

presents a more thorough case study on the growth, development, and commercialization

of communication satellites.

^See “Perception vs. Reality in NASA’s Commercial Crew and Cargo Program,”

http://www.thespacereview.eom/article/2 1 66/1 .

^Congressional interest in commercial space continues to the day. Most recently (June 20,

2012), the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Science and Space held a hearing on the “Risks,

Opportunities, and Oversight of Commercial Space.”

http://commerce.senate. gov/public/index. cfm?p=Hearings&ContentRecord id^c3ae3flc-

fl b9-47a 1 -8eef-50 1 3d 1 d6819 1 &ContentTvpe id=14f995b9-dfa5-407a-9d35-

56cc7 1 52a7ed&Group_id=b06c39af-e033-4cba-922 1 -

de668ca 1 978a&MonthDisplav=6& YearDisplav=20 1 2

^See “Launch Services Purchase Act of 1990,”

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=20497.0.

http://archive.spacefrontier.org/commercialspace/lspalaw.txt.

http://uscode.house.gOv/download/pls/5 1 C 1 0 1 .txt.

^See “Commercial Development Plan for the International Space Station,”

http://historv.nasa.gOv/3 1 3 1 7.pdf

‘°Only 4 years later. Congress amended the original Commercial Space Launch Act to

establish a regulatory framework specifically intended for human spaceflight. Provisions

of the amendments included the concept of “informed consent” for space tourists as well

as a new experimental launch test permit (FAA, 2010).

"See “Departmental Authority,” http://www.space.commerce.gov/about/doo.shtml.

'^Out of this effort came the first private space support missions flown to the ISS, by the

Dragon spacecraft (National Research Council, 2012).

"Granted it through P.L. 85-568, § 203.

"See “NASA Policy Directive: Authority to Enter into Space Act Agreements,”

http://nodis3.gsfc.nasa.gov/displavDir.cfm?t=NPD&c=^1050&s=IL also explained at

http://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/administrative/science technology/lO 1 1

1 1 spaceact ppt.authcheckdam.pdf

Washington Academy of Sciences

39

’^See Golden Spike Company website, http://goldenspikecompanv.com/.

'^See Deep Space Industries website, http://deepspaceindustries.com/.

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Bio

Bhavya Lai is a research staff member at the IDA Science and

Technology Policy Institute (STPI) where her research focuses on

manufacturing and space technology and policy. Before joining STPI, Dr.

Lai was president of C-STPS, LLC, a science and technology policy

research and consulting firm in Waltham, Massachusetts and prior to that,

she was Director of the Center for Science and Technology Policy Studies

at Abt Associates. Dr. Lai holds B.S. and M.S. degrees in nuclear

engineering from MIT, an M.S. from MIT’s Technology and Policy

Program, and a Ph.D. from the Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and

Public Administration (concentration in science and technology policy) at

George Washington University.

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Estimating the Climate Impact of Transportation

Fuels: Moving Beyond Conventional Lifecycle

Analysis Toward Integrated Modeling

Systems Scenario Analysis

Mark A. Delucchi

Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis

Abstract

As commonly employed, life-cycle analysis (LCA) cannot accurately

represent the climate impacts of complex systems such as those

involved in making and using biofuels for transportation. LCA

generally is linear, static, highly simplified, and tightly circumscribed.

The real world, which LCA attempts to represent, is none of these.

Among LCA’s major deficiencies are: its failure to explicitly specify

alternative courses of action; its incomplete accounting for price

effects; its incomplete treatment of land-use change; its neglect of the

nitrogen cycle; and its omission of climate-impact modeling steps and

climate-relevant pollutants. In order to better represent the impacts of

complex systems such as those surrounding biofuels, analysts need a

different tool — one that has the central features of LCA, but not the

limitations. I propose as a successor to LCA a method of analysis that

combines integrated assessment modeling, life-cycle analysis, and

scenario analysis. I call this method integrated modeling systems and

scenario analysis (IMSSA). IMSSA uses dynamic, nonlinear, feedback-

modulated representations of energy, economic, ecological, and

technological systems in order to estimate the physical and economic

impacts of policies or actions, particularly those related to biofuels.

Introduction

For SEVERAL DECADES analysts have used a tool ealled “lifecycle

analysis” (LCA) to estimate the environmental and energy impacts of a

variety of production and consumption processes. The distinguishing

feature of LCA is that it aggregates impacts from all of the activities

involved in producing, distributing, using, and disposing of a product. For

This paper updates “Beyond Life-Cycle Analysis: Developing a Better Tool for

Simulating Policy Impacts” in Sustainable Transportation Energy’ Pathways: A Research

Summary for Decision Makers published by the University of California-Davis Institute

of Transportation Studies, 2011, edited by Joan Ogden and Lorraine Anderson.

http://steps.ucdavis.edu/STEPS.Book

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the past 20 years, as concerns about climate change have grown and the

search for alternatives to fossil fuels has intensified, LCA has been

increasingly used to estimate emissions of “greenhouse gases” (GHGs)

from the use of a wide range of alternative transportation fuels.

However, as commonly used, LCA cannot accurately represent the

impacts of complex energy systems, such as those involved in making and

using biofuels for transportation. LCA generally is linear, static, highly

simplified, and tightly circumscribed. The real world, which LCA attempts

to represent, is none of these (Plevin et al., 2013). In order to better

represent the impacts of complex systems such as biofuels, we need a

different tool — one that has the central features of LCA, but not the

limitations.

This paper discusses the limitations of conventional LCA and then

proposes a new modeling system called Integrated Modeling Systems and

Scenario Analysis (IMSSA), which combines integrated assessment

modeling, lifecycle analysis, and scenario analysis. Given the scientific

consensus that the use of fossil fuels is causing rapid and unprecedented

climate change, and the finding by the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) that fossil-fuel use must be drastically curtailed to

avoid dangerous warming above 2 degrees Celsius (IPCC, 2013), I discuss

the commonly-used LCA and the newer IMSSA in the context of

understanding the climate impact of alternative transportation fuels in

general and biofuels in particular. I focus on biofuels because bioenergy

systems are especially complex and challenging to model.

Background and General Critique of LCA

Current lifecycle analyses of GHG emissions from transportation

fuels can be traced back to “net energy” analyses. These LCAs were done

in the late 1970s and early 1980s in response to the oil crises of 1973 and

1979, which motivated a search for alternatives to petroleum. These LCAs

were relatively straightforward, generic, partial “engineering” analyses of

the amount of energy required to produce and distribute energy feedstocks

and finished fuels. Their objective was to compare alternatives to

conventional gasoline and diesel fuel according to total lifecycle use of

energy, fossil fuels, or petroleum.

In the late 1 980s, analysts, policy makers, and the public began to

worry that burning coal, oil, and gas would affect global climate. Interest

in alternative transportation fuels, which had subsided on account of low

oil prices in the mid-1980s, was renewed. Motivated now by global as

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well as local environmental concerns, engineers again analyzed alternative

transportation lifecycles. Unsurprisingly, they adopted the methods of

their “net-energy” engineering predecessors, except that they took the

additional step of estimating net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, based on

the carbon content of fuels.

By the early 1990s, analysts had added two other greenhouse

gases, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), weighted by their “Global

Warming Potential” (GWP), to come up with a metric known as lifecycle

C02-equivalent (C02e) emissions for alternative transportation fuels. (The

section “LCA Deficiency 5” discusses the GWP metric in more detail.)

Today, most LCAs of transportation and global climate are not

appreciably different in general method from those analyses done in the

early 1990s.' Although various analysts have made different assumptions

and used slightly different specific estimation methods — and as a result

have come up with a variety of answers — only recently have a number of

researchers begun to seriously question the general validity of this method

that has been handed down to them (Plevin et al., 2013).

In principle, LCAs of transportation and climate are much broader

than the net-energy analyses from which they were derived. Hence, they

have all of the shortcomings of net-energy analyses plus many more. For

example, the original net-energy analyses of the 1970s and 80s can be

criticized for failing to include economic variables on the grounds that any

alternative-energy policy would affect prices and hence uses of all major

sources of energy. Based on this criticism, the lifecycle GHG analyses that

followed can be criticized on the same grounds, but even more cogently.

(In the case of lifecycle GHG analyses we care about any economic effect

anywhere in the world, whereas in the case of net-energy analysis we care

about economic effects only insofar as they affect the country of interest.)

Beyond this, lifecycle GHG analysis in principle encompasses additional

areas of data (such as emission factors) and, more importantly, additional

large and complex systems (e.g., the nitrogen cycle, the hydrologic cycle,

global climate), all of which introduce considerable additional uncertainty.

The upshot is that traditional or conventional LCAs of

transportation and climate are not built on a carefully derived, broad,

theoretically and historically solid foundation, but rather are ad-hoc

extensions of a method — net-energy analysis — that was itself

incomplete and theoretically ungrounded to be valid on its own terms.

Therefore, this method cannot reasonably be extended to the considerably

broader and more complex problem of estimating the global climate

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impacts of transportation energy policies. Today, lifecycle analyses of

GHG emissions from transportation fuels usually are consistent with LCA

guidelines established by the International Organization for

Standardization" (ISO). The ISO guidelines properly address only a few of

the defieiencies discussed here.

The broader LCA community is beginning to recognize the need

for a more eomprehensive integrated modeling approach to traditional

LCA problems. In this respect, Feng et al. (2008) discuss “system-wide

accounting,” Pehnt et al. (2008) discuss “consequential environmental

systems analysis,” and Finnveden et al. (2009) discuss “environmental

systems analysis using life cycle methodology.” At a general conceptual

level, all of these approaches and the one proposed here, are a version of

the well established field of “integrated assessment modeling” (e.g..

Parson and Fisher- Vanden, 1997; Guinee et al., 2011; and Weidema and

Ekvall, 2009).

Comparison of Conventional LCA with IMSSA

This paper proposes something similar to integrated assessment

modeling (lAM), but with more emphasis on the systems integration and

scenario analysis; hence the term, “Integrated Modeling Systems Scenario

Analysis” (IMSSA). Figures 1 and 2 delineate the modeling structure in

IMSSA and conventional LCA, and Table 1 compares conventional LCA

with IMSSA.

In principle, lifecycle analyses of GHG emissions from

transportation fuels are meant to help us understand the impact on global

climate of some proposed transportation policy or action (“policy/action”).

I refer generally to the impacts of the policy/action on “environmental

systems.” Figure 1 shows that IMSSA starts with the specification of a

policy/action and ends with the impacts on environmental systems. In

between are a series of steps that constitute the conceptual components of

the model.

The impact of climate change — the ultimate output of interest —

is a function of the dynamic state of the climate system. Importantly,

however, the climate system is influenced by a wide range of emissions

beyond the three commonly considered in transportation LCAs (CO2, CH4

and N2O) and by other factors such as albedo (reflectivity). Emissions and

non-emission factors, in turn, are affected by energy systems, material

systems, land-use systems, and natural ecosystems. All of these are

affected by, and in some cases affect, policies and economic systems.

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Figure 1, Representation of an ideal model (IMSSA)

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Indeed, as illustrated in Figure 1, there are many important

feedbacks, especially between energy systems, material systems, land-use

and ecosystems, economic systems, non-emission factors, and climate

systems.

However, conventional LCA does not capture this complexity (see

Figure 2) and instead usually represents a simplistic no-feedback system

that considers only energy use, emissions of three GHGs, and a simplified

measure of climate, the Global Warming Potential. Some LCAs also

include the lifecycle of materials, and recently some LCAs have added a

simple partial treatment of land-use change (LUC). Thus, as indicated in

Table 1 comparing the two approaches, conventional LCA lacks explicit

representations of policy, economic systems, and climate impacts. It also

has simplified or incomplete treatments of the nitrogen cycle, land-use

change and ecosystems, the climate system, and GHGs other than CO2,

CH4, and NjO.^

Figure 2. Representation of conventional LCA

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LCA Deficiency 1: Failure to Explicitly Specify

Alternative Courses of Action

Conventional LCAs of transportation and climate change typically

do not analyze a specific policy or even posit a specific question for

analysis. Instead, the implicit questions of conventional LCA must be

inferred from the conclusory statements and the methods of analysis. In

transportation-fuel LCAs, the conclusory statements typically are of the

sort:

“The use of fuel F in light-duty vehicles has X% more [or

less] emissions of C02e GHG emissions per mile than does

the use of gasoline in light-duty vehicles.”

The method of analysis is illustrated in Figure 2 which indicates that, in

conventional LCA, C02e emissions are equal to emissions of CO2 plus

equivalency-weighted emissions of non-C02 gases, where the equivalency

weighting usually is done with respect to radiative forcing over a 100-year

time period. Given this, we can infer that the implicit question being

addressed by most conventional LCAs of GHG emissions in transportation

is something like:

What would happen to an incomplete measure of radiative

forcing over the next 100 years if we simply replace the

limited set of activities that we have defined to be the

“gasoline lifecycle” with the limited set of activities that we

have defined to be the “fuel F lifecycle,” with no other

changes occurring in the world?

The problem here is that this question is irrelevant in these two

respects, discussed in more detail in later sections:

i. No actions that anyone can take in the real world will have the net

effect of just replacing the narrowly defined set of ‘gasoline

activities’ with the narrowly defined set of ‘fuel-F activities,’ and

ii. We do not care about radiative forcing per se (let alone an

incomplete measure of radiative forcing), and our concern is not

limited to 100 years; rather, we care about the actual impacts of

climate change over a very long time period of time.

Because conventional LCAs do not evaluate explicit, realistic, specific

policies/actions, it is difficult if not impossible to relate the results of

conventional LCAs to any actual policies/actions in the real world.

Washington Academy of Sciences

LCA Deficiency 2: Incomplete (or No) Accounting

for Price Effects

51

All energy and environmental policies affect prices. Changes in

prices affect consumption, and hence output. Changes in consumption and

output change emissions. In the real world, price effects are ubiquitous.

They occur in every market affected directly or indirectly by

transportation fuels — the market for agricultural commodities, the market

for fertilizer, the market for oil, the market for steel, the market for

electricity, the market for new cars — and often are important.

Although most recent conventional LCAs do not account for price

effects, the broader economic modeling community is beginning to

analyze the role of price effects in LCA. As discussed under the section,

“LCA Deficiency 3,” a few recent analyses have estimated how changes in

biofuel production change the prices of agricultural commodities and

thereby change the use of land, which leads to the emission or

sequestration of carbon. Economic modelers also have just begun to

examine some aspects of one of the most important potential price effects:

the impact of any non-petroleum alternative on the price of oil.

Price Effects Related to Oil Use

In general, the substitution of any non-petroleum fuel for gasoline

will contract the demand for gasoline, which in turn will contract demand

for crude oil, which probably will reduce the price of crude oil. This

reduction in the world price of oil will stimulate increased consumption of

petroleum products for all end uses worldwide. The increased use of

petroleum products will increase all of the energy and environmental

impacts of petroleum use, including climate change impacts. Hence, the

use of non-petroleum alternative fuels can cause increases in GHG

emissions in the petroleum sector via price feedbacks.

Economic theory suggests that the interconnections are even more

complex. For example, a large price subsidy, such as the subsidy enjoyed

by com ethanol, ultimately causes a loss of social welfare on account of

output being suppressed below optimal levels due to the inefficient use of

(tax) resources. This loss of output probably is associated ultimately with

lower GHG emissions. Thus, in this case, a subsidy policy may have

countervailing effects: On the one hand, there will be an increase in GHG

emissions caused by increased use of petroleum due to the lower price of

oil due to the substitution of ethanol. On the other hand, there will be a

decrease in GHG emissions due to the reduction in output caused by the

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subsidy. By contrast, a research and development (R&D) policy that

succeeds in bringing to market a new low-social-cost fuel will, on account

of the more efficient use of energy resources, unambiguously improve

social welfare.

Research on price effects related to oil use is relatively recent

(Delucchi, 2005; Dixon et al., 2007; Hochman et ai, 2010; Rajagopal et

al., 2011), and is consistent with the theoretical expectations discussed

above. For example, Hoehman et al. (2010) quantify the effects of biofuels

on global crude oil markets, and find that the introduction of biofuels

reduces international fuel prices by between 1.07 and 1.10% and increases

global fuel consumption by 1.5 to 1.6% (p. 1 12).

Other Price Effects

Price effects also are likely to be important in cases of joint

production, where one proeess and one set of inputs inseparably produee

more than one marketed output. It is well known that eom-ethanol plants,

for example, produce commodities other than ethanol. A policy promoting

ethanol therefore is likely to result in more output of these other goods, as

well as more production of ethanol. The proper approach is to model the

market for the other goods to determine, in the final equilibrium, what

changes in consumption and production mediated by price changes occur

in the world with the ethanol policy. The same issue of joint production

also arises in petroleum refineries and in other processes in fuel lifecycles.

Price changes can have a large number of what are likely to be

relatively minor effects. For example, different life cycles use different

amounts of steel and hence have different effects on the price and thereby

the use of steel in other sectors. Although it might be reasonable to

presume that in these cases the associated differences in emissions of

GHGs are relatively small, sometimes many quite small individual effects

add up (rather than cancel each other). Therefore, it would be ideal for

lifecycle analysts to investigate a few classes of these apparently minor

price effects.

LCA Deficiency 3: Incomplete Treatment of Land-Use Change

As indicated in Figure 1, changes in land-use can affect climate in

several ways. They affect:

• the flows of carbon between the atmosphere and soil and plants;

• climate-relevant physieal properties of land, such as its albedo;

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• the nitrogen cycle which, in turn, can affect climate in several

ways — for example, via production of N2O or by affecting the

growth of plants which, in turn, affects carbon-C02 removal from

the atmosphere via photosynthesis;

• the hydrologic cycle, which again affects climate in several ways;

and

• the fluxes of other pollutants that can affect climate, such as CH4,

volatile organic compounds, and aerosols.

CO2 Emission from Land-Use Change

Conceptually, an ideal model of the climate impact of changes in

carbon emissions due to land-use change (LUC) caused by bioenergy

policies has several streams, listed in Table 2. The modeling begins with

an estimate of CO2 emissions from LUC based on the difference, over

time, between ecosystem carbon content in a “no bioenergy program”

baseline case compared with ecosystem carbon content in a “with

bioenergy program” case (where “bioenergy program” refers to a specific

program and need not encompass all bioenergy in the world). It ends with

an estimate of the differences in climate impacts between the “with

bioenergy” and “without bioenergy” cases.

In a cost-benefit or economic framework, the impacts would be

monetized and discounted to their present value. The (monetized and

discounted) stream of climate-change-impact differences — associated

ultimately with the year-by-year differences in land uses between the “no-

bioenergy-program” and “with-bioenergy-program” cases — would

represent the climate-change impact of CO2 emissions from LUC resulting

from a bioenergy program.

Ideally, this modeling would be part of a comprehensive analysis

of the climate impacts of bioenergy programs, which would include, in

addition to the impacts of CO2 emissions from LUC just described, two

other general kinds of impacts:

• the climate impacts of LUC other than those resulting from CO2

emissions (e.g., changes in albedo; see Cherubini et aJ., 2012); and

• the climate impacts from the rest of the bioenergy production-and-

use chain.

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The value of all of these other impacts would be added to the value of the

impacts of the CO2 emissions from LUC to produce a comprehensive

measure of the climate impact of a bioenergy program.

While a few recent LCA studies (e.g., Hertel et al., 2010a, 2010b;

Plevin et al., 2010; Searchinger et al., 2008) have addressed part of Stream

1 in Table 2 (economic modeling of LUC), the treatment of this stream is

incomplete. And no published peer-reviewed LCA study has addressed the

other four streams properly. Most importantly, no LCA work apart from

Delucchi (2011) has a conceptual framework that properly represents all

of the following: the reversion of land uses at the end of the biofuels

program; the actual behavior of emissions and climate over time; and the

treatment of future climate-change impacts relative to present impacts.

Biogeopitysical Impacts of Land-Use Change

Changes in land use and vegetation can change physical

parameters, such as albedo and evapotranspiration rates, which directly

affect the absorption and disposition of energy at the surface of the earth,

and thereby affect local and regional temperatures (Bala et al., 2007;

Cherubini et al., 2012; Lobell et al., 2006; Marland et al., 2003). Changes

in temperature and evapotranspiration can affect the hydrologic cycle

(Georgescu et al., 2009) which, in turn, can affect ecosystems and climate

in several ways, such as via: the direct radiative forcing of water vapor,

evapotranspirative cooling, cloud formation, or rainfall. This affects the

growth and hence carbon sequestration by plants (Bala et al., 2007;

Marland et al., 2003; Pielke, 2005).

In some cases, the climate impacts of changes in albedo and

evapotranspiration due to LUC appear to be of the same order of

magnitude, but of the opposite sign as the climate impacts that result from

the associated changes in carbon stocks in soil and biomass due to LUC.

For example, Bala et al. (2007) find that “the climate effects of CO2

storage in forests are offset by albedo changes at high latitudes, so that

from a climate change mitigation perspective, projects promoting large-

scale afforestation projects are likely to be counterproductive in these

regions” (p. 6553). This suggests that the incorporation of these

biogeophysical impacts into biofuel LCAs could significantly change the

estimated climate impact of biofuel policies.

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Table 2. Environmental and economic modeling of LUC: Hierarchy of streams in the

representation of the climate impacts of bioenergy policies due to CO2 emissions based

on changes in land use

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There also are interactive and feedback effects between climate

change, land use, and water use. For example, changes in precipitation and

evapotranspiration (due to climate change) will affect groundwater levels

(Bovolo et al., 2009) and cropping patterns, which in turn will give rise to

other environmental impacts, including feedback effects on climate

change. People in less wealthy countries may be most vulnerable to these

changes because they have less capacity to mitigate or adapt to impacts on

groundwater (Bovolo et al., 2009).

LCA Deficiency 4: Neglect of the Nitrogen Cycle

Anthropogenic inputs of nitrogen to the enviromnent, such as from

the use of fertilizer or the combustion of fuels, can disturb aspects of the

global nitrogen cycle and have a wide range of environmental impacts.

These include: eutrophication of lakes and coastal regions; fertilization of

terrestrial ecosystems; acidification of soils and water bodies; changes in

biodiversity; respiratory disease in humans; ozone damages to crops; and

changes to global climate (Fowler et al., 2013; Galloway et al., 2003;

Mosier et al, 2002; Vitousek et al., 1997). Galloway et al. (2003) depict

this as a “nitrogen cascade” in which “the same atom of Nr [reactive N,

such as in NOx or NHy] can cause multiple effects in the atmosphere, in

terrestrial ecosystems, in freshwater and marine systems, and on human

health” (p. 341; brackets added). As a result, nitrogen emissions to the

atmosphere, as NOx, NHy, or N2O, can contribute to climate change

through complex physical and chemical pathways that affect the

concentration of ozone (O3), CH4, N2O, CO2 and aerosols:

i. NOx participates in a series of atmospheric chemical reactions

involving carbon monoxide (CO), volative organic compounds

(VOCs), H2O, OH-, O2, and other species that affect the production

of tropospheric ozone, a powerful GHG as well as an urban air

pollutant.

ii. In the atmospheric chemistry mentioned in i), NOx affects the

production of the hydroxyl radical, OH, which oxidizes methane

and thereby affects the lifetime of CH4.

iii. In the atmospheric chemistry mentioned in i), NOx affects the

production of sulfate aerosol which, as an aerosol, has a net

negative radiative forcing and thereby a beneficial effect on

climate (IPCC, 2007), on the one hand. On the other hand, it

adversely affects human health.

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iv. NHy and nitrate from NOx deposit onto soils and oceans and then

eventually re-emit N as N2O, NOx, or NHy. Nitrate deposition also

affects soil emissions of CH4.

V. NHy and nitrate from NOx fertilize terrestrial and marine

ecosystems and thereby stimulate plant growth and sequester

carbon in nitrogen-limited ecosystems.

vi. NHy and nitrate from NOx fomi ammonium nitrate which, as an

aerosol, has a net negative radiative forcing (IPCC, 2007), on the

one hand, and thereby a beneficial effect on climate. On the other

hand, this adversely affects human health.

vii. As deposited nitrate, N from NOx can increase acidity and harm

plants and thereby reduce C-CO2 sequestration.

Even though the development of many kinds of biofuels will lead

to large emissions of NOx, N2O, and NHy, virtually all lifecycle analyses

of C02-equivalent GHG emissions from biofuels ignore all N emissions

and the associated climate effects except for the effect of N fertilizer on

N2O emissions. (Some preliminary, more comprehensive estimates are

provided in Delucchi, 2003, 2006.)

Even in the broader literature on climate change there has been

relatively little analysis of the climate impacts of N emissions, because as

Fuglestvedt et al. (2003) note, “GWPs for nitrogen oxides (NOx) are

amongst the most challenging and controversial” (p. 324). Shine et al.

(2005) estimate the global warming impacts of the effect of NOx on O3

and CH4, focusing on regional differences (z and ii above). However, they

merely mention and do not quantify the effect of NOx on nitrate aerosols

(vz above) and do not mention the other impacts {Hi, iv, v, and vzz). Prinn et

al. (2005) and Brakkee et al. (2008) estimate effects z and ii. These

studies, along with the preliminary work by Delucchi (2003, 2006) suggest

that the climate impacts of perturbations to the N cycle by the production

and use of biofuels could be comparable to the impacts of LUC.

LCA Deficiency 5: Omission of Climate-Impact Modeling

Steps and Climate-Relevant Pollutants

The ultimate objective of LCAs of GHG emissions in

transportation is to determine the effect of a particular policy on global

climate and the impact of global climate change on quantities of interest

(e.g., human welfare). This requires a number of modeling steps beyond

the economic and environmental modeling discussed above. These steps.

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discussed in Table 2, involve estimating relationships between policies

and emissions, emissions and concentration, concentration and radiative

forcing, radiative forcing and temperature change, and temperature change

and climate impacts for all climate-relevant pollutants. Conventional

LCAs omit or characterize poorly most of these steps and omit most

climate-relevant pollutants.

Conventional LCAs do not estimate the climate-change impacts of

GHG emissions from transportation fuels, but rather use the quantity

called “Global Warming Potential” to convert emissions of CH4, N2O, and

CO2 into a common index of temperature change. GWPs tell us the grams

of CH4 or N2O that produce the same integrated radiative forcing, over a

specified period of time, as one gram of CO2, given a single pulse of

emissions of each gas (IPCC, 2007). Typically, analysts use GWPs for a

1 00-year time horizon.

There are several problems with the GWP metric (Bradford, 2001;

Fuglestvedt et al., 2003; Godal, 2003; IPCC, 2007; Manne and Richels,

2001; O’Neill, 2003):

• First, society cares about the impacts of climate change, not about

radiative forcing per se, and changes in radiative forcing are not

linearly correlated with changes in climate impacts.

• Second, the method for calculating the GWPs involves several

unrealistic simplifying assumptions, which can be avoided

relatively easily in a more realistic, comprehensive CO2-

equivalency metric.

• Third, by integrating radiative forcing from the present day to 1 00

years hence, the GWPs in effect give a weight of 1.0 to every year

between now and 100 and a weight of 0.0 to every year beyond

1 00, which does not reflect how society makes tradeoffs over time.

(A more realistic treatment would use continuous discounting

[Bradford, 2001; Delucchi, 2011].)

• Fourth, the conventional method omits several gases and aerosols

that are emitted in significant quantities from biofuel lifecycles and

can have a significant impact on climate, such as ozone precursors

(VOCs, CO, NOx), ammonia (NH3), sulfur oxides (SOx), black

carbon (BC), and other aerosols (IPCC, 2007).

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A better approach is to use an equivalency metric that equilibrates

the present-dollar value of the impacts of climate change from a unit

emission of gas / with the present-dollar value of the impacts of climate

change from a unit emission of CO2. Ideally, these present-value metrics

would be derived from runs of climate-change models for generic, but

explicitly delineated, policy scenarios.

Toward a More Comprehensive Model: IMSSA

If researchers want the results of their analyses of the climate-

change impacts of transportation policies to be interpretable and relevant,

their models must be designed to address clear and realistic questions. In

the case of LCA comparing the energy and environmental impacts of

different transportation fuels and vehicles, the questions and issues must

be of the sort: “What would happen to [some measure of energy use or

emissions] if somebody did X instead of Y?” where X and Y are specific

and realistic alternative courses of action. These alternative courses of

action may be related to public policies or to private-sector market

decisions, or both. In any event, LCA models must be able to properly

trace out all of the differences — political, economic, technological,

environmental — between the world with X and the world with Y.

So, rather than ask, “What would happen if we replaced [one very

narrowly defined set of activities] with [another narrowly defined set of

activities]?” and then use an engineering process-life-cycle model to

answer this (misplaced) question. Instead, we should ask, “What would

happen in the world if we were to take one realistic course of action rather

than another?” And then use an integrated economic, environmental, and

engineering model — IMSSA — to answer the question.

Table 3 summarizes the conceptual differences between IMSSA

and conventional LCA. Given the tremendous uncertainty in data,

methods, and model scope and structure, IMSSA emphasizes scenario

analysis rather than simple point estimates (or ad-hoc confidence

intervals). IMSSA results thus would be described with nuanced

statements of this sort:

“Under the conditions A, B, and C, the distribution of

climate-impact damages for policy option 1 tends to be

lower than the distribution of damages for policy option 2.

But option 1 also tends to result in lower vehicle miles of

travel and lower GNP.”

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Table 3. Summary of conventional LCA versus IMSSA

Conclusion

As mentioned at the outset, this paper frames the discussion of

IMSSA around the climate impact of biofuels because this is a particularly

complex problem that nicely illustrates the deficiencies of conventional

LCA. But might conventional LCA be acceptable for much less complex

transportation-energy problems? In general, the more an energy alternative

perturbs technological, economic, and environmental systems, the less

suitable is conventional LCA. This suggests that, in principle,

conventional LCA might be almost as accurate as IMSSA in estimating

the impacts of alternatives that do not appreciably affect technological,

economic, and environmental systems.

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The problem, however, is that often it is difficult to identify low-

perturbation alternatives without using relatively complex models to scope

the potential impacts. This difficulty is compounded because generally,

the harder analysts and scientists look, the more impacts they find. Even

alternatives that at first glance seem to have very small impacts (e.g.,

wind, water, and solar power) can, upon further inspection, turn out to

have potentially nontrivial impacts not covered by conventional LCA. For

example, the deployment of wind turbines over the ocean may cause local

surface cooling due to enhanced heat latent flux driven by an increase in

turbulent mixing caused by the turbines (Wang and Prinn, 2011). Large-

scale photovoltaic arrays in deserts can alter surface albedo. This affects

local temperature and wind patterns, with the sign of the temperature

effect depending on the efficiency of the photovoltaic system relative to

the background albedo (very efficient PV systems will cause local

cooling) (Millstein and Menon, 2011).

Nevertheless, resources for research are limited, and we cannot

research everything forever. Ideally, we want to concentrate our efforts on

problems that are important, uncertain, and tractable."^ Given this, the most

sensible approach is to evaluate periodically the state of our knowledge so

that we can continue to target important, uncertain, and tractable

problems. Unfortunately, at the beginning of this process, we need fairly

comprehensive tools in order to do any kind of screening at all. Thus, we

should develop at least rudimentary IMSSA as quickly as possible in order

to guide the evolution of our analyses.

' See DeLuchi (1991) for additional historical background and a review of early

transportation LCAs.

^ See the ISO web site, www.iso.ch/iso/en/iso9000- 1 4000/iso 1 4000/iso 1 4000index.html

^ Note that this general criticism applies to methods that use economic input-output (I-O)

analysis, such as hybrid lO-LCA methods (e.g., Lenzen, 2002). 10-LCA expands the

boundaries of the energy and materials systems considered, but does not necessarily

address the other issues raised here.

If a problem is unimportant, well understood, or intractable, it is not worth a great deal

of attention. Thus, it is beside the point to argue that conventional LCA might be suitable

for analyzing the impacts of policies that are intended to make only inconsequential

changes in energy use, because there is no need to analyze such policies in the first place.

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62

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Bio

Dr. Mark A. Delucchi is a research scientist at the Institute of